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Operator
Operator
Good morning. Thank you for attending today's Frontier Communications Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Cole, and I'll be the moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to pass the conference over to our host, Spencer Kurn. Please go ahead.
早安.感謝您參加今天的 Frontier Communications 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫科爾,我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 (操作員指示)我現在想將會議轉交給我們的主持人 Spencer Kurn。請繼續。
Spencer Harris Kurn - SVP of IR
Spencer Harris Kurn - SVP of IR
Good morning, and welcome to Frontier Communications Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This is Spencer Kurn, Frontier's Head of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today are Nick Jeffery, our President and CEO; and Scott Beasley, our CFO. Today's presentation can be followed within the webcast available in the Events & Presentations section of our Investor Relations website.
早安,歡迎參加 Frontier Communications 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我是 Spencer Kurn,Frontier 投資人關係主管。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長尼克傑弗瑞 (Nick Jeffery);和我們的財務長 Scott Beasley。您可以透過我們投資者關係網站的活動和演示部分的網路廣播觀看今天的演示。
Before we start, please see our safe harbor disclaimer on Slide 2. This is a reminder that this conference call may include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed today. During the call, we may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled in our earnings presentation, press release and trending schedule. With that, I'll turn the call over to Nick.
在我們開始之前,請參閱投影片2 上的安全港免責聲明。今天所表達的結果存在重大差異。在電話會議期間,我們也可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標,這些指標在我們的收益報告、新聞稿和趨勢表中進行了定義和調整。這樣,我就把電話轉給尼克。
Nicholas Simon Jeffery - President, CEO & Director
Nicholas Simon Jeffery - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Spencer. Good morning, everybody. I'm here with Scott today in our new Dallas headquarters, and we're looking forward to sharing our Q4 results with you and providing 2024 guidance. But before we do that, I'd like to take a moment to ground us on where we are today, nearly 3 years into this great American turnaround story. From the beginning, we said 2023 would be the year that we would return to sustainable growth. And I'm pleased to share with you that we did exactly that. For the first time in more than a decade, we achieved full year EBITDA growth.
謝謝,史賓塞。大家早安。今天我和 Scott 一起來到達拉斯新總部,我們期待與您分享我們第四季度的業績並提供 2024 年的指導。但在此之前,我想花點時間讓我們了解一下我們今天所處的位置,這個偉大的美國扭虧為盈故事已經過去近三年了。我們從一開始就說2023年將是我們恢復永續成長的一年。我很高興與您分享我們確實做到了這一點。十多年來,我們首次實現了全年 EBITDA 成長。
And this accomplishment is the result of our team's relentless execution of our strategy. It's the culmination of the strong operational results we've achieved quarter after quarter, and it's the most compelling evidence yet that our fiber-first strategy is working. Today, we are the largest pure-play fiber provider in the country. We've scaled our fiber build, ending the year with 6.5 million fiber passings. Easy math puts us at 65% of the way towards our goal of building to 10 million fiber locations.
這項成就是我們團隊不懈地執行策略的結果。這是我們一個又一個季度取得的強勁營運業績的頂峰,也是迄今為止我們的光纖優先策略正在發揮作用的最令人信服的證據。如今,我們是國內最大的純光纖供應商。我們擴大了光纖建設規模,到年底光纖傳輸數量達到 650 萬條。簡單計算一下,我們距離建造 1,000 萬個光纖站點的目標已經完成 65%。
And we've connected a record 2 million customers to our high-speed fiber broadband network and that's noteworthy because our fiber broadband customers now represent 2/3 of our total customer base. And this is a remarkable evolution in just 3 years. As fiber continues to become a greater share of our business, we will become an even stronger company.
我們已經將創紀錄的 200 萬客戶連接到我們的高速光纖寬頻網絡,這一點值得注意,因為我們的光纖寬頻客戶現在占我們總客戶群的 2/3。這是短短三年內的顯著演變。隨著纖維繼續在我們的業務中佔據更大的份額,我們將成為一家更強大的公司。
So how do we build this leadership position? Well, if we turn to Slide 5, we can see that the answer is in the consistent execution of our strategy: build fiber, sell fiber, improve customer service for all customers and increase our operational efficiency.
那我們要如何建立這個領導地位呢?好吧,如果我們轉向投影片 5,我們可以看到答案在於始終如一地執行我們的策略:建造光纖、銷售光纖、為所有客戶改善客戶服務並提高我們的營運效率。
So let's take a closer look at each of these components. It all starts with our fiber build. Last year, we increased our fiber footprint by 25%, and we've doubled it since we began our build back in 2020. We continue to stand out from the pack as the only scaled fiber builder to add more fiber passings year after year. The second pillar is selling fiber. Fiber is a superior product. And as data usage continues to grow exponentially, this only becomes more true. There's a need for speed that only fiber can deliver, and that's showing up in our customer growth.
讓我們仔細看看每個組件。一切都始於我們的光纖建置。去年,我們的光纖足跡增加了 25%,自 2020 年開始建造以來,我們的光纖足跡增加了一倍。第二個支柱是銷售光纖。纖維是一種優質產品。隨著數據使用量繼續呈指數級增長,這一點只會變得更加真實。對速度的需求只有光纖才能提供,這體現在我們的客戶成長中。
Today, we have 50% more broadband customers than we had 3 years ago. And I'm proud to share that last year, we gained market share against every competitor in every market we serve, and we did so whilst also growing ARPU. Scott will talk more about our fourth quarter performance shortly. But to give you a preview, we grew broadband customers by 19% year-over-year, with ARPU up 5%. Next, let's talk about the improvements we've made to our customer service. Last year, we saved our customers a collective 50 years of time on the phone by eliminating 2 million service calls from a total of nearly $9 million the year before.
如今,我們的寬頻客戶數量比 3 年前增加了 50%。我很自豪地告訴大家,去年,我們在我們所服務的每個市場上都贏得了與所有競爭對手相比的市場份額,而且我們在這樣做的同時還實現了 ARPU 的成長。斯科特很快將詳細討論我們第四季的業績。但為了讓您預覽一下,我們的寬頻客戶年增了 19%,ARPU 成長了 5%。接下來,我們來談談我們對客戶服務所做的改進。去年,我們從前一年的總費用近 900 萬美元中減少了 200 萬通服務電話,為客戶節省了 50 年的通話時間。
Even more impressively, we did so whilst growing our broadband customer base by nearly 20% over the same period. This was the result of us putting the customer firmly back at the center of our universe. We have removed thousands of customer irritations and invested in digital self-service tools like our app and our AI chatbot. We made it easier for customers to interact with us digitally and in many cases, eliminated the need for customers to contact us at all. The outcome, churn is down to near record levels and MPS has skyrocketed.
更令人印象深刻的是,我們在做到這一點的同時,我們的寬頻客戶群在同一時期成長了近 20%。這是我們將客戶牢牢地置於我們宇宙中心的結果。我們已經消除了數以千計的客戶煩惱,並投資了數位自助服務工具,例如我們的應用程式和人工智慧聊天機器人。我們讓客戶更輕鬆地與我們進行數位互動,在許多情況下,客戶根本不需要與我們聯繫。結果,客戶流失率降至接近歷史最高水平,而 MPS 卻飆升。
And we are now the industry leader in fiber broadband customer satisfaction as measured by independent NPS research. And finally, we've become more efficient. We've simplified the way we work, introduced new technology to improve how we operate and rightsize our real estate footprint. This focus on operational efficiency has achieved over $500 million in cost savings since 2021, and that's double our initial target.
根據獨立的 NPS 研究衡量,我們現在是光纖寬頻客戶滿意度的行業領導者。最後,我們變得更有效率。我們簡化了工作方式,引入了新技術來改善我們的營運方式並調整了我們的房地產足跡。自 2021 年以來,對營運效率的關注已節省了超過 5 億美元的成本,這是我們最初目標的兩倍。
If we take a step back and look at our performance over the past 3 years, we've clearly delivered an operational turnaround. And if we turn to Slide 6, you can see how these results are now driving sustainable financial growth. I love this chart. It clearly shows how building and selling fiber is delivering EBITDA growth. You can see here that our strong execution drove fiber EBITDA growth of 14% in 2023, which lifted total company EBITDA growth into positive territory for the first time in a decade.
如果我們退一步看看過去三年的表現,我們顯然已經實現了營運上的轉變。如果我們轉向投影片 6,您可以看到這些結果現在如何推動可持續的金融成長。我喜歡這張圖表。它清楚地表明了光纖生產和銷售如何實現 EBITDA 成長。您可以在這裡看到,我們強大的執行力推動纖維 EBITDA 在 2023 年成長了 14%,這使公司 EBITDA 整體成長十年來首次進入正值。
This is a critical inflection point that we've been working towards over the past 3 years and an important milestone in our progress towards unlocking the next phase of our growth. Underpinning these results is our fiber broadband revenue, which grew 20% in 2023. That's up from 13% in 2022. And 12% in 2021.
這是我們在過去三年中一直努力實現的關鍵轉折點,也是我們邁向下一階段成長的重要里程碑。支撐這些業績的是我們的光纖寬頻收入,到 2023 年將成長 20%。
We've created a model for driving sustainable growth. It's a virtuous circle. We put fiber in the ground, we connect more customers to our superior fiber product, we offer higher gig speeds and value-added services, delivering higher ARPU, which all leads to revenue growth. We invest that revenue back into our company for the benefit of our customers and our business. It's repeatable and scalable and the value created at every turn of this flywheel.
我們創建了一個推動永續成長的模型。這是一個良性循環。我們將光纖埋入地下,將更多客戶連接到我們卓越的光纖產品,提供更高的演出速度和增值服務,提供更高的 ARPU,所有這些都會帶來收入成長。我們將這些收入投資回我們的公司,以造福我們的客戶和我們的業務。它具有可重複性和可擴展性,飛輪的每一次轉動都會創造價值。
With the strong results we delivered in 2023, I'm confident that we will accelerate our growth in 2024 and beyond. Which brings me to the priorities for this year, which you can see on Slide 7. I'm going to share an overview of our plan, and then Scott will provide more detailed 2024 guidance later in the call.
憑藉我們在 2023 年取得的強勁業績,我相信我們將在 2024 年及以後加速成長。這讓我想到了今年的優先事項,您可以在幻燈片 7 中看到。
Firstly, will execute our strategy with determination and rigor, just like we did last year and the year before that. Specifically, we plan to build 1.3 million fiber locations again this year. We plan to add more fiber broadband customers in 2024 than we did in 2023, whilst also accelerating ARPU growth at or above 3% to 4%. And we plan to improve our customer service and streamline operations to deliver benefits to our customers and to our bottom line. Secondly, we plan to accelerate fiber revenue growth, which will drive overall company revenue growth in 2024.
首先,我們將像去年和前年一樣,堅決、嚴謹地執行我們的策略。具體來說,今年我們計劃再次建造130萬個光纖站點。我們計劃在 2024 年增加比 2023 年更多的光纖寬頻客戶,同時將 ARPU 成長加速至 3% 至 4% 或以上。我們計劃改善我們的客戶服務並簡化運營,以便為我們的客戶和我們的利潤帶來好處。其次,我們計劃加速光纖收入成長,這將帶動2024年公司整體營收成長。
We expect this top line growth to come from an acceleration in consumer revenue with business and wholesale remaining relatively stable and importantly, we plan to accelerate EBITDA growth into the mid-single digits this year. So let me wrap up by saying a huge thank you to the builders of Gigabit America. Everyone at Frontier paid a role in making 2023 a success and I'm confident that 2024 is going to be our best year yet.
我們預期營收成長將來自消費者收入的加速,業務和批發保持相對穩定,重要的是,我們計劃今年將 EBITDA 成長加速至中個位數。最後,我要向 Gigabit America 的建造者表示衷心的感謝。 Frontier 的每個人都為 2023 年的成功做出了貢獻,我相信 2024 年將是我們迄今為止最好的一年。
Before I turn it over to Scott, I want to remind everybody that we're planning to host an investor update later this year. The event will be held in the second quarter and we plan to provide additional detail on our longer-term financial goals and a path to driving additional shareholder value. So please stay tuned for more information. Scott, over to you.
在我把它交給斯科特之前,我想提醒大家,我們計劃在今年稍後舉辦投資者更新。活動將於第二季舉行,我們計劃提供有關我們的長期財務目標的更多細節以及推動額外股東價值的途徑。所以請繼續關注以獲取更多資訊。史考特,交給你了。
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you, Nick. And good morning, everyone. The team delivered another excellent quarter of operational and financial results. I'll walk you through the highlights from the quarter and then share our guidance for 2024. Slide 9 is a snapshot of our Q4 operational highlights. We passed 333,000 new fiber locations and exceeded our goal of 1.3 million fiber passings in 2023.
謝謝你,尼克。大家早安。該團隊又一個季度取得了出色的營運和財務表現。我將向您介紹本季度的亮點,然後分享我們對 2024 年的指導。我們新增了 333,000 個光纖站點,超越了 2023 年 130 萬個光纖站點的目標。
We added 84,000 fiber broadband customers in the quarter. Importantly, we grew our customer base while also growing ARPU by 5% versus Q4 of 2022. We implemented numerous initiatives early in 2023 to drive ARPU growth. We offered faster speed tiers, adjusted pricing and started charging for value-added services. As a result, nearly 60% of our new customers are taking speeds of 1 gig or faster, and roughly 45% of customers purchased at least one value-added service.
本季我們增加了 84,000 個光纖寬頻客戶。重要的是,我們擴大了客戶群,同時 ARPU 也比 2022 年第四季成長了 5%。我們提供了更快的速度等級,調整了定價並開始對增值服務收費。因此,我們近 60% 的新客戶採用 1 GB 或更快的速度,大約 45% 的客戶至少購買了一項增值服務。
Consumer fiber broadband churn also improved to 1.20% in the quarter. That's down 12 basis points from the prior year. Last, we achieved double our initial cost savings target at the end of 2023, surpassing $500 million of savings for the program. Let's turn to Slide 10 to show how our strong operational results drove improved financial performance. In the fourth quarter, revenue was $1.43 billion, strong consumer fiber revenue growth of 11% drove total consumer revenue growth of 1%.
本季消費者光纖寬頻流失率也改善至 1.20%。比去年下降了 12 個基點。最後,我們在 2023 年底實現了最初成本節約目標的兩倍,為該計畫節省了超過 5 億美元。讓我們轉向投影片 10,展現我們強勁的營運表現如何推動財務表現的改善。第四季營收為14.3億美元,消費纖維營收強勁成長11%,帶動消費總營收成長1%。
We had $17 million of net income and earned $549 million of adjusted EBITDA. That's up 4% year-over-year. This was our fastest quarter of EBITDA growth since 2016. The $356 million of our adjusted EBITDA came from fiber products. Additionally, we generated $296 million of net cash from operations, bringing our cash from operations to $1.3 billion in 2023. Let's dive deeper into each of our core growth drivers. Our EBITDA growth has been driven by accelerated customer growth, healthy ARPU growth and a significant cost reduction program.
我們的淨利潤為 1700 萬美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 5.49 億美元。較去年同期成長 4%。這是我們自 2016 年以來 EBITDA 成長最快的季度。此外,我們也從營運中產生了 2.96 億美元的淨現金,到 2023 年,我們的營運現金達到 13 億美元。我們的 EBITDA 成長是由加速的客戶成長、健康的 ARPU 成長和顯著的成本削減計劃推動的。
If you turn to Slide 11, you can see our progress growing our fiber broadband customer base. We ended 2023 with a record 2 million fiber broadband customers. The 2 million figure is a significant milestone, representing roughly 50% growth since the beginning of our transformation. Our base fiber penetration now sits at 44.5%, close to our target of 45%. In expansion markets, all cohorts are performing at or above our target ranges at 12 and 24 months.
如果您翻到投影片 11,您可以看到我們在擴大光纖寬頻客戶群方面的進展。截至 2023 年,我們的光纖寬頻客戶數量達到創紀錄的 200 萬。 200 萬的數字是一個重要的里程碑,代表著自轉型開始以來約 50% 的成長。我們的基礎纖維滲透率目前為 44.5%,接近我們 45% 的目標。在擴張市場中,所有群體在 12 個月和 24 個月時的表現均達到或高於我們的目標範圍。
Our smaller 2020 build cohort, roughly 86,000 fiber locations reached penetration of 35% at 36 months. We are now almost 80% of the way to our terminal penetration after just 3 years. Turning to Slide 12. Our success gaining customers is translating into fiber revenue growth. We ended the year on a high note with strong fiber revenue growth, driven by our consumer performance. Consumer fiber revenue grew 11% in Q4, and we are confident that this trend will continue to accelerate in 2024.
我們的 2020 年建造隊列規模較小,大約 86,000 個光纖位置在 36 個月內達到了 35% 的滲透率。僅僅三年後,我們的終端滲透率就已接近 80%。轉向幻燈片 12。在消費者業績的推動下,我們以強勁的纖維收入成長結束了這一年。第四季消費纖維收入成長 11%,我們有信心這一趨勢將在 2024 年繼續加速。
For the second quarter in a row, consumer fiber revenue growth offset copper declines resulting in total consumer revenue growth of 1%. This was a key inflection point for us 2 quarters ago as the lift from consumer fiber broadband finally began to more than offset the declines of legacy video and voice products. As this dynamic continues, we expect consumer revenue growth to further accelerate in the coming quarters.
消費者光纖收入連續第二季成長抵消了銅的下降,導致消費者總收入成長 1%。這是兩個季度前我們的一個關鍵轉折點,因為消費者光纖寬頻的成長終於開始抵消傳統視訊和語音產品的下降。隨著這種動態的持續,我們預計未來幾季消費者營收成長將進一步加速。
Business and wholesale fiber revenue declined 2% year-over-year as growth in SMB and enterprise was offset by declines in wholesale. Q4 was a difficult comparison for wholesale, because of several onetime benefits in the fourth quarter of 2022, as the wholesale business tends to be lumpy. We expect fiber business and wholesale revenue to return to year-over-year growth in Q1.
商業和批發光纖收入年減 2%,原因是中小企業和企業的成長被批發業務的下降所抵消。對於批發來說,第四季度是一個困難的比較,因為批發業務往往不穩定,因此 2022 年第四季出現了一些一次性收益。我們預計第一季纖維業務和批發收入將恢復年成長。
Moving to Slide 13. Our customer and revenue trends led to an important acceleration in EBITDA growth. We grew adjusted EBITDA by 4% in the fourth quarter. As Nick shared, EBITDA growth for the year was primarily driven by fiber revenue growth. At the same time, we took cost out of the business and managed copper declines. It was the same story for the quarter. At our 2021 Investor Day, we set out a plan to reverse our structurally declining EBITDA by the end of 2022, and we expected full year EBITDA growth in 2023.
轉到投影片 13。第四季調整後 EBITDA 成長了 4%。正如 Nick 所說,今年的 EBITDA 成長主要是由纖維收入成長所推動的。同時,我們降低了業務成本並控制了銅價的下跌。本季的情況也是如此。在 2021 年投資者日,我們制定了一項計劃,到 2022 年底扭轉 EBITDA 結構性下降的趨勢,並預計 2023 年全年 EBITDA 將實現成長。
Through the hard work of our 13,000-plus employees, we returned to full year EBITDA growth in 2023. And importantly, our growth accelerated throughout the year. We'll talk in a few minutes about our expectation to accelerate adjusted EBITDA growth in 2024, but I want to thank our team for hitting this critical milestone.
透過 13,000 多名員工的辛勤工作,我們在 2023 年恢復了全年 EBITDA 成長。我們將在幾分鐘內討論我們對 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 加速成長的期望,但我要感謝我們的團隊實現了這一關鍵里程碑。
Let's spend a few minutes on capital expenditures and liquidity before we get to 2024 guidance. We delivered capital expenditures of $3.21 billion plus $4 million of vendor financing for total capital investment of $3.22 billion. As expected, our fiber build spend declined in the second half of the year, as we consumed prework in inventory, managed working capital and benefited from a lower cost build mix. There are 2 points that I'd like to highlight on capital investment.
在討論 2024 年指導之前,讓我們花幾分鐘討論一下資本支出和流動性。我們交付了 32.1 億美元的資本支出,加上 400 萬美元的供應商融資,總資本投資達 32.2 億美元。正如預期的那樣,我們的光纖建設支出在下半年有所下降,因為我們消耗了庫存中的前期工作、管理了營運資本並受益於較低的成本建設組合。關於資本投資,我想強調兩點。
First, our 2023 direct build cost per location landed within our range of $1,000 to $1,100 per location. Since we began building fiber in 2020, we have passed roughly 3.3 million new fiber locations at a direct bill cost of approximately $920 per location. We continue to expect future passings to cost approximately $1,000 to $1,100 per location, resulting in a total project spend in the $1,000 range per location passed. Second, the mix of our capital investment will continue to evolve in 2024. We expect our fiber build spend to begin to decline, while our customer acquisition CapEx will increase with higher gross adds.
首先,我們 2023 年每個地點的直接建造成本落在每個地點 1,000 美元至 1,100 美元的範圍內。自 2020 年開始建造光纖以來,我們已經通過了大約 330 萬個新光纖站點,每個站點的直接帳單成本約為 920 美元。我們仍然預計未來每個地點的通行成本約為 1,000 至 1,100 美元,因此每個地點的項目總支出將在 1,000 美元範圍內。其次,我們的資本投資組合將在 2024 年繼續發展。
Overall, we expect capital investment in 2024 to be lower than 2023. We continue to have high confidence that our fiber build will deliver IRRs in the mid to high teens, well above our cost of capital. Once we are through the investment phase, our business will generate significant growing free cash flows. We'll now turn to liquidity on Slide 15.
整體而言,我們預計 2024 年的資本投資將低於 2023 年。一旦我們完成投資階段,我們的業務將產生顯著成長的自由現金流。現在我們將轉向投影片 15 上的流動性。
At the end of the quarter, we had $3.2 billion of liquidity. As we shared in August, our landmark fiber securitization deal gives us a path to fully fund our build to 10 million passings. In addition to our strong liquidity and access to capital, our balance sheet remains healthy with approximately 87% of our debt at fixed rates. Finally, we do not have any significant maturities until 2027. I'll close today on Slide 16 with our 2024 guidance.
截至本季末,我們擁有 32 億美元的流動資金。正如我們在 8 月分享的那樣,我們具有里程碑意義的光纖證券化交易為我們提供了一條為我們的建設提供充分資金的途徑,以達到 1000 萬次傳輸。除了強大的流動性和獲得資本的能力外,我們的資產負債表仍然保持健康,約 87% 的債務為固定利率。最後,我們在 2027 年之前不會有任何重要的到期日。 今天我將在投影片 16 上介紹我們的 2024 年指引。
The most important part of our guidance is adjusted EBITDA, which we expect will accelerate to mid-single-digit growth this year. We expect adjusted EBITDA of $2.20 billion to $2.25 billion in 2024, and we expect to deliver year-over-year growth in every quarter. We also expect full year revenue growth as accelerating consumer growth combined with roughly stable business and wholesale performance of plus or minus 2%.
我們指導中最重要的部分是調整後的 EBITDA,我們預計今年將加速至中個位數成長。我們預計 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 為 22.0 億美元至 22.5 億美元,且每季都將實現年成長。我們也預期全年營收將成長,因為消費者成長加速,加上業務和批發業績大致穩定,正負 2%。
Operationally, we expect to pass another 1.3 million locations with fiber. Right now, this is our optimal build pace as we balance speed with operational efficiency. We also expect cash capital investment, which includes capital expenditures and vendor financing payments of approximately $3.0 billion to $3.2 billion, representing a decline versus 2023. As we scaled our fiber build, we've been able to secure more favorable payment terms in line with the rest of the industry.
在營運方面,我們預計將透過光纖覆蓋另外 130 萬個地點。目前,這是我們的最佳建置速度,因為我們平衡了速度與營運效率。我們也預期現金資本投資,其中包括約 30 億至 32 億美元的資本支出和供應商融資付款,較 2023 年有所下降。
Vendor financing payments are included in our capital investment guidance, meaning that the $3.0 billion to $3.2 billion will be comprised of 2 lines from the cash flow statement, capital expenditures and payments of vendor financing. Finally, in terms of cadence, we expect timing-related factors to result in capital investment being front-end loaded in Q1 at a level similar to the first quarter of 2023, before stepping down materially in the second, third and fourth quarters. As I wrap up, I want to say thank you to our amazing Frontier team for delivering these results. We set a new bar for success in 2023 by placing the customer at the center of everything we do, and I'm looking forward to doing it again in 2024.
供應商融資付款已包含在我們的資本投資指南中,這意味著 30 億至 32 億美元將由現金流量表、資本支出和供應商融資付款的 2 行組成。最後,就節奏而言,我們預計與時間相關的因素將導致資本投資在第一季以與 2023 年第一季類似的水平提前加載,然後在第二、第三和第四季大幅減少。最後,我想對我們優秀的 Frontier 團隊交付這些成果表示感謝。我們將客戶置於一切工作的中心,為 2023 年的成功設定了新的標準,我期待在 2024 年再次做到這一點。
Operator, we'll now open the line for questions and I'd ask our participants to limit themselves to one question and one follow-up.
接線員,我們現在將開放提問熱線,我要求我們的參與者將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Jonathan Chaplin with New Street.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自新街的喬納森·卓別林。
Jonathan Chaplin - US Team Head of Communications Services
Jonathan Chaplin - US Team Head of Communications Services
So my one question for Scott, is you guys obviously did a phenomenal job with the $500 million of cost cuts in 2023. What is the opportunity for continuing cost cuts in 2024? And have you included anything in your EBITDA guidance for cost cutting?
所以我要問 Scott 的一個問題是,你們顯然在 2023 年削減了 5 億美元的成本方面做得非常出色。您的 EBITDA 指南中是否包含了削減成本的內容?
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. Thanks for the question, Jonathan. First, I'd say we're not done with cost savings. We're really proud of the $500 million that we've captured so far. But we really think that we're in the early stages of our cost transformation program. That's a key reason that we expect margins to improve this year, which is a key component of our 5% EBITDA growth at the midpoint.
是的。謝謝你的提問,喬納森。首先,我想說我們的成本節約工作還沒結束。我們對迄今為止獲得的 5 億美元感到非常自豪。但我們確實認為我們正處於成本轉型計劃的早期階段。這是我們預計今年利潤率將提高的一個關鍵原因,也是我們 EBITDA 中點成長 5% 的關鍵組成部分。
We'll give more specific targets at our investor update next quarter. But I can give you some color on where we think the savings will come from. First, in field operations, we still have a lot of productivity improvements to make, especially reducing truck rolls and nonproductive dispatches. In customer care, we've made phenomenal progress, reducing call volumes down roughly 65%, but we still have more work ahead to digitize our customer experience, and then we have big cost opportunities ahead of us in self-install capabilities and copper decommissioning.
我們將在下個季度的投資者更新中給出更具體的目標。但我可以告訴您一些我們認為節省的資金來自何處的資訊。首先,在現場營運中,我們仍有大量生產力需要提高,特別是減少上門服務和非生產性調度。在客戶服務方面,我們取得了驚人的進步,呼叫量減少了約65%,但我們仍有更多工作要做,以數位化我們的客戶體驗,然後我們在自行安裝功能和銅纜退役方面面臨著巨大的成本機會。
So overall, a lot of good work ahead of us, a lot of opportunity, and we'll share more updates next quarter.
總的來說,我們還有很多好的工作要做,有很多機會,我們將在下個季度分享更多更新。
Go ahead, Jonathan.
繼續吧,喬納森。
Jonathan Chaplin - US Team Head of Communications Services
Jonathan Chaplin - US Team Head of Communications Services
I was going to say how does it sort of play out during the course of the year? Do you expect a steady acceleration in EBITDA growth quarter-to-quarter? Or is it lumpy?
我想說的是這一年的情況如何?您預計 EBITDA 逐季穩定加速成長嗎?還是塊狀的?
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. We think -- we said a few things on EBITDA growth. We expect year-over-year growth in every quarter -- and we also expect the rate of growth to accelerate throughout the year as we get momentum behind the consumer business as well as continued momentum in our cost savings program. So those are the 2 points of guidance around EBITDA cadence for 2024.
是的。我們認為-我們就 EBITDA 成長說了一些話。我們預計每個季度都會實現同比增長,並且隨著我們在消費者業務方面獲得動力以及成本節約計劃的持續動力,我們也預計全年增長率將會加快。這些是圍繞 2024 年 EBITDA 節奏的兩點指導。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Greg Williams with TD Cowen.
我們的下一個問題來自 Greg Williams 和 TD Cowen。
Gregory Bradford Williams - Director
Gregory Bradford Williams - Director
Great 2 questions. First one is on fiber churn. I mean, nice work at 1.2%. You guys mentioned NPS scores are skyrocketing. So is this peak performance for the churn on the fiber side, do you think? Or is there room for more? Obviously, adjusting for seasonality and with those impressive levels, I mean, you could perhaps get more aggressive on gross adds and promos since your CLV would be up.
很好的 2 個問題。第一個是關於纖維攪拌。我的意思是,1.2% 的表現不錯。你們提到 NPS 分數正在飆升。那麼您認為這是光纖方面流失的峰值效能嗎?或是還有更多空間嗎?顯然,根據季節性和令人印象深刻的水平進行調整,我的意思是,您可能會在總增加和促銷方面更加積極,因為您的 CLV 會上升。
The second question I have is on your CapEx guidance. It looks like it's cash CapEx guidance. Can you help us with how much vendor financing you do anticipate in terms of borrowing for 2024 CapEx, the net benefit as you pay down vendors, but you're also going to be borrowing on the back end. Just wanted to get a sense of maybe the accrued CapEx as well as the cash CapEx that you guided.
我的第二個問題是關於你們的資本支出指引。看起來這是現金資本支出指引。您能否幫助我們了解您預計在 2024 年資本支出借款方面預計有多少供應商融資,即您向供應商付款時的淨收益,但您也將在後端借款。只是想了解您指導的應計資本支出以及現金資本支出。
Nicholas Simon Jeffery - President, CEO & Director
Nicholas Simon Jeffery - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Greg, it's Nick here. Perhaps I'll start to answer to the question on churn and NPS and Scott hand over to you. Look, on NPS, we are extremely pleased that by some external measures, we've now become the market leader, in NPS, in a phenomenally short period of time. And that really is the result of a huge company-wide effort to understand all the reasons for customer dissatisfaction.
是的。格雷格,我是尼克。也許我會開始回答有關客戶流失和 NPS 的問題,然後 Scott 將其交給您。看,在 NPS 方面,我們非常高興,透過一些外部措施,我們現在在極短的時間內成為 NPS 的市場領導者。這確實是全公司上下付出巨大努力來了解客戶不滿意的所有原因的結果。
In fact, the management team at the ExCo look at all that data every single week and have done for the last 3 years and then systematically remove all the reasons why anyone would contact us or anyone would be dissatisfied and try and make their customer experience, which is a horrible term, much, much better. And that work is really, really paying off. And of course, high NPS leads to higher customer satisfaction. It flows through to lower churn.
事實上,ExCo 的管理團隊每週都會查看過去 3 年的所有數據,然後系統地消除任何人聯繫我們或任何人不滿意的所有原因,並嘗試改善他們的客戶體驗,這是一個可怕的術語,但要好得多。這項工作確實得到了回報。當然,高 NPS 會帶來更高的顧客滿意度。它流向更低的攪動。
And our churn rates are close to record lows. Would I like to see that go further? Yes. Do I think we can go further on NPS? Yes. Is that work done not by a long way, but will we continue with determination and maniacal focus on creating the best possible customer experience for what is the best product in the market. Yes, absolutely. Scott, do you want to add to that?
我們的客戶流失率接近歷史最低水準。我想看到更進一步嗎?是的。我認為我們可以在 NPS 方面更進一步嗎?是的。這項工作還沒有完成,但我們會繼續堅定決心並瘋狂專注於為市場上最好的產品創造最佳的客戶體驗。是的,一點沒錯。史考特,你想補充一下嗎?
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Sure. Greg. On churn, in particular, we're really proud of the 12 basis point improvement we made year-over-year in fiber broadband churn. And we've said NPS is a key driver of that. We are in a low move environment, and we all recognize that. And that perhaps is one reason that churn has been lower. But if the move environment returns to a more historic level, we actually think that will be good for Frontier because we are a share taker.
當然。格雷格.特別是在流失率方面,我們對光纖寬頻流失率年增 12 個基點感到非常自豪。我們說過 NPS 是其中的關鍵驅動因素。我們正處於低流動性環境中,我們都認識到這一點。這也許是客戶流失率較低的原因之一。但如果搬遷環境回到歷史水平,我們實際上認為這對 Frontier 來說是件好事,因為我們是股東。
If there are more jumbos in the market because people are moving at more normal rates, then we like our ability to grow even faster. So I think we're happy with where we are, and we'll see where the move environment goes. On your second question of vendor financing and CapEx, I'll make a few points there. Vendor financing is included in the $3.0 billion to $3.2 billion capital investment guidance we gave. We don't know exactly how much will hit the vendor financing line of the cash flow statement versus the capital expenditures, but it's probably a few hundred million dollars in vendor financing. The balance will be in capital expenditures.
如果市場上有更多的巨型飛機,因為人們以更正常的速度流動,那麼我們希望我們能夠更快地成長。所以我認為我們對目前的情況感到滿意,我們將看看搬遷環境會走向何方。關於供應商融資和資本支出的第二個問題,我將在此提出幾點觀點。供應商融資包含在我們給出的 30 億至 32 億美元資本投資指引中。我們不知道現金流量表的供應商融資線與資本支出相比到底有多少,但供應商融資可能有幾億美元。餘額將用於資本支出。
And then secondly, I'd reiterate, this is kind of -- our procurement team has done an incredible job renegotiating with suppliers to get more favorable payment terms for the company. So it's been a good -- we made good progress in the last few years getting the advantages of scale. We're the second biggest fiber builder in the country and so our suppliers have been able to work with us on that.
其次,我要重申,我們的採購團隊在與供應商重新談判方面做了令人難以置信的工作,為公司獲得了更優惠的付款條件。所以這是一件好事——我們在過去幾年中取得了良好的進展,並獲得了規模優勢。我們是全國第二大纖維製造商,因此我們的供應商能夠在這方面與我們合作。
But there's no separate interest costs related to the vendor financing.
但沒有與供應商融資相關的單獨利息成本。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Sam McHugh with BNP Paribas.
我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Sam McHugh。
Samuel McHugh - Analyst of Telecom Operators & Head of Telecom Equity Research
Samuel McHugh - Analyst of Telecom Operators & Head of Telecom Equity Research
Just a question on the base areas. Obviously, you've seen a really nice sequential growth still. And you'd always talked about a 45% long-term penetration target. I guess that's still the right target? Are you more optimistic than you may have been in the past? And if you did hit that target, should we think about you shifting strategy at all and may be a bit less aggressive on that talent and you could redeploy that elsewhere. So just some color around that would be great.
只是關於根據地的問題。顯然,您仍然看到了非常好的連續成長。您總是談到 45% 的長期滲透率目標。我想這仍然是正確的目標嗎?您比過去更樂觀嗎?如果你確實達到了這個目標,我們是否應該考慮你改變策略,並且可能對人才不那麼激進,你可以將其重新部署到其他地方。所以只要周圍有一些顏色就很好了。
Nicholas Simon Jeffery - President, CEO & Director
Nicholas Simon Jeffery - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Sam, it's Nick here. We've always said at least 45%. 45% is just kind of mathematical right outcome in a 2-player market where some of the market doesn't take service at all and the rest is divided equally amongst the remaining 2 players. In actual fact, we have many markets and many cities where our penetration in our base markets is already way higher than 45%. So we have no ambition to stop at 45% whatsoever.
是的。山姆,我是尼克。我們總是說至少 45%。 45% 只是 2 人市場中數學上正確的結果,其中一些市場根本不提供服務,其餘的則由剩下的 2 人平分。事實上,我們有許多市場和很多城市,我們在基礎市場的滲透率已經遠高於45%。因此,我們無意止步於 45%。
We will continue to push very, very hard on this. But because it really, really matters more broadly because our penetration and in fact, our growing penetration in our base markets where we faced a long-established well-entrenched cable competitors where they're already FWA coverage as well. And yet, we are still able to grow our penetration by over 4 percentage points in the last few years up to very, very close now to our ambition of 45% on average and as I said, higher in some other places is a great and very strong indicator for what we believe is possible to achieve in the expansion markets where we're building fiber.
我們將繼續非常非常努力地推動這一點。但這確實非常重要,因為我們的滲透率,事實上,我們在基礎市場的滲透率不斷增長,我們在基礎市場面臨著長期根深蒂固的有線電視競爭對手,他們也已經涵蓋了 FWA。然而,在過去幾年中,我們仍然能夠將滲透率提高4 個百分點以上,現在非常非常接近我們平均45% 的目標,正如我所說,在其他一些地方更高的滲透率是一個偉大且值得期待的目標。
Now of course, it takes a bit longer because you have to build the market, sell it, penetrate it over time. But we are highly convinced that our 45% penetration target is achievable across the entirety of our footprint. We've proven it in our core markets. And if we can go further, we will.
當然,現在需要更長的時間,因為你必須隨著時間的推移建立市場、銷售市場、滲透市場。但我們堅信,我們的 45% 滲透率目標是可以在我們的整個業務範圍內實現的。我們已經在我們的核心市場證明了這一點。如果我們能走得更遠,我們就會的。
Samuel McHugh - Analyst of Telecom Operators & Head of Telecom Equity Research
Samuel McHugh - Analyst of Telecom Operators & Head of Telecom Equity Research
Fantastic. And can I just ask a quick follow-up on the vendor financing. Like when we're thinking about the balance of vendor financing outstanding, so I understand the cash payments, but are you assuming you pay down this $255 million balance of vendor financing within the CapEx guidance? Or you're assuming you'll take on more than the financing. I'm just trying to understand the difference between cash and accrued and the financing.
極好的。我可以詢問一下供應商融資的快速跟進嗎?就像當我們考慮未償供應商融資餘額時一樣,我理解現金支付,但您是否假設您在資本支出指導範圍內支付了這 2.55 億美元的供應商融資餘額?或者您假設您將承擔的不僅僅是融資。我只是想了解現金和應計費用以及融資之間的差異。
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. So we think the cash capital investment will be very similar to accrued capital investment in 2024. So as we continue building as we continue renegotiating with suppliers, we may have some vendor financing that goes out of '24 to '25, but we don't expect it to change materially. The other note I'd make, we actually reduced our payables balance by about $100 million in 2023.
是的。因此,我們認為2024 年的現金資本投資將與應計資本投資非常相似。進行,但我們不會預期它會發生重大變化。我要指出的另一點是,到 2023 年,我們的應付帳款餘額實際上減少了約 1 億美元。
So it's lumpy, the build is lumpy, but the key is to continue getting industry best terms so that we can manage our cash flows.
所以它是不穩定的,構建是不穩定的,但關鍵是繼續獲得行業中最好的條款,以便我們能夠管理我們的現金流。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
我們的下一個問題來自 Nick Del Deo 和 MoffettNathanson。
Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst
Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst
I had one question on commercial revenue and one on subsidy revenue. So Scott, I think you said the commercial revenue should be roughly stable in '24 versus '23. I think you said plus or minus 2% should we think it a full year '23 as being the benchmark or kind of the second half of '23 as being the benchmark? And then on subsidy revenue, can you share anything about what you're baking into your guidance on that front? Is it just stuff that's in your pipeline today? Or are you incorporating some rising level of subsidy revenue over the course of the year.
我有一個關於商業收入的問題和一個關於補貼收入的問題。史考特,我想你說過 24 年和 23 年的商業收入應該大致穩定。我想你說的是正負2%,我們應該以23年全年為基準還是23年下半年當作基準?關於補貼收入,您能否分享一下您在這方面的指導中所考慮的內容?這只是您今天正在開發的東西嗎?或者您是否將年內不斷上升的補貼收入納入其中。
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Sure, Nick. I'll take both of those. On Business and wholesale, when we say plus or minus 2%, that's full year '24 versus 23%. And again, the business and wholesale business is lumpy. You have some big projects that come in a specific quarter and then some that don't hit and hit the next quarter. So that's one to take a longer-term view on across multiple quarters. So '23 full year is really the benchmark there. And then on subsidies, in our -- we're not giving specific subsidy guidance, but we do not expect BEAD or new programs to materially change our trajectory in 2024.
當然,尼克。我會接受這兩個。在商業和批發方面,當我們說正負 2% 時,指的是 24 年全年與 23% 的情況。再次,商業和批發業務不穩定。您有一些大型專案在特定季度推出,還有一些專案不會在下個季度推出。因此,這是一個跨多個季度採取更長期觀點的問題。所以23年全年確實是那裡的基準。然後在補貼方面,我們沒有給出具體的補貼指導,但我們預計 BEAD 或新計劃不會在 2024 年實質改變我們的發展軌跡。
We kind of have a steady state of what we've achieved in the last few quarters. We think that will persist throughout 2024. And if we're successful, which we think we will be in winning BEAD dollars. BEAD dollars will start to flow in 2025 and beyond.
我們在過去幾季所取得的成就處於穩定狀態。我們認為這種情況將持續到 2024 年。 BEAD 美元將於 2025 年及以後開始流動。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Michael Rollins with Citi.
下一個問題來自花旗銀行的麥可‧羅林斯。
Michael Ian Rollins - MD & U.S. Telecoms Analyst
Michael Ian Rollins - MD & U.S. Telecoms Analyst
I'm curious if you could give us an update on the strategic front in terms of some of the items that were flagged in the press release from a few weeks ago, joint venture opportunities, possibly non-core asset monetization? And just the broader elements of that Frontier is looking at and considering at the moment?
我很好奇您能否向我們介紹幾週前新聞稿中標記的一些策略方面的最新情況、合資機會、可能的非核心資產貨幣化?目前正在研究和考慮的只是該前沿的更廣泛的元素?
Nicholas Simon Jeffery - President, CEO & Director
Nicholas Simon Jeffery - President, CEO & Director
Yes, Michael, Nick here. Just taking a step back a little bit and thinking about the strategic review more broadly. When the company was emerging from Chapter 11, and we put together the new Board and the new executive team, of course, one of the things we did at that time was a complete strategic review of all the options for the company going forward. And of course, we settled on our new fiber strategy and our ambition to build to at least 10 million fiber passings. Because we're kind of 3 years into that, and we've got that 10 million fiber passing kind of goal firmly in our sights.
是的,麥可、尼克在這裡。只是退後一步,更廣泛地思考戰略審查。當公司擺脫美國破產法第十一章時,我們組建了新的董事會和新的執行團隊,當然,我們當時所做的一件事就是對公司未來的所有選擇進行全面的策略審查。當然,我們確定了新的光纖策略以及建造至少 1000 萬光纖通道的雄心。因為我們已經進入這個階段 3 年了,而且我們已經堅定地實現了 1000 萬條光纖通過的目標。
I think it's entirely appropriate that the Board and the executive team look again at what next for the company. What's the next frontier of growth and what's the best way to unlock shareholder value in the future. And this is a review, of course, that's something we've been doing continuously really over the last few years. But we think we're at a point in time, where it's right to make public that we're looking at all the options again, and that includes an evaluation of our operational and financing strategy whether they are smart strategic partnerships that we should engage with potentially joint ventures, divestitures, mergers and some business combinations may make sense.
我認為董事會和執行團隊重新考慮公司的下一步發展是完全合適的。下一個成長前沿是什麼以及未來釋放股東價值的最佳方式是什麼。當然,這是一次回顧,這是我們過去幾年一直在持續做的事情。但我們認為,我們正處於一個恰當的時間點,公開表示我們正在再次考慮所有選擇,其中包括評估我們的營運和融資策略,看看它們是否是我們應該參與的明智戰略夥伴關係。企業,資產剝離、合併和一些業務合併可能是有意義的。
But look, that's a review that's in process and our Board is always looking at every possible opportunity to create shareholder value in great detail. And I think when we're ready to share any of that detail, we'll come back and share it with you. But that's something we're looking at right now. So it's live, it's in the moment. And when we're ready to share something, we'll come back and do that with the market. Sorry, go ahead, Mike.
但是,請注意,這是一項正在進行的審查,我們的董事會始終在仔細尋找每一個可能的機會來創造股東價值。我認為當我們準備好分享任何細節時,我們會回來與您分享。但這就是我們現在正在考慮的事情。所以它是活的,就在當下。當我們準備好分享一些東西時,我們會回來與市場分享。抱歉,請繼續,麥克。
Michael Ian Rollins - MD & U.S. Telecoms Analyst
Michael Ian Rollins - MD & U.S. Telecoms Analyst
If I could just one more. On the cash capital investment, in 2023, I think it's Slide 14, you show about $1.7 billion for customer acquisition, maintenance and other. Can you further unpack how that $1.7 billion splits between these big buckets, acquisition maintenance and other and how that evolves more so in 2024?
如果我能再多一個就好了。關於現金資本投資,到 2023 年,我認為是投影片 14,您顯示大約 17 億美元用於客戶獲取、維護和其他。您能否進一步解釋一下這 17 億美元如何在這些大桶、收購維護等之間分配,以及在 2024 年如何演變?
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Sure. Michael, this is Scott. And let me talk through the cash capital investment guidance that we gave for 2024. So the overall guidance range is $3.0 billion to $3.2 billion, but there are really 2 main moving parts within that. First, our fiber build spend will actually be lower with the same number of passings because we will consume inventory and pre-work. So we'll do 1.3 million passings, but we'll spend less money and then our direct spend per passing will still be in the $1,000 to $1,100 range.
當然。邁克爾,這是斯科特。讓我談談我們為 2024 年提供的現金資本投資指引。首先,在相同的通過次數下,我們的光纖建置支出實際上會更低,因為我們將消耗庫存和預先工作。因此,我們將進行 130 萬次傳遞,但我們會花更少的錢,然後每次傳遞的直接支出仍將在 1,000 美元到 1,100 美元的範圍內。
So that's the kind of the first peak where we've peaked in the fiber build spend in 2023, and we'll start working that down as we consume prework and inventory throughout the rest of the build. Now the bucket that's going up is our connection CapEx and that's success-based and only occurs when we win new customers. Now the bulk of that connection CapEx will be in the consumer business because we expect higher gross adds in 2024 versus 2023. And our cost to connect is still in the same range, roughly $600 to $800 as we scale our self-install capabilities.
因此,這是我們在 2023 年光纖建置支出達到峰值的第一個峰值,隨著我們在建造的其餘部分消耗預先加工和庫存,我們將開始降低這一峰值。現在,上升的部分是我們的連結資本支出,這是基於成功的,只有當我們贏得新客戶時才會發生。現在,大部分連接資本支出將用於消費者業務,因為我們預計2024 年的總增加量將高於2023 年。至800 美元。
But then once we scale self-install more broadly, it should come down to even below $600 million. So those are the 2 big moving buckets within overall cash capital investment, but the total number should be lower than it was in 2023, and we're highly confident on that. On your specific question around maintenance versus customer acquisition, we don't break another -- we don't break those out more specifically, but I've kind of given you the building blocks around connection CapEx for consumer. There's also success-based connection CapEx for business and wholesale with the rest of that bucket being maintenance and other.
但一旦我們更廣泛地擴展自我安裝,它應該會降至 6 億美元以下。因此,這些是整體現金資本投資中的兩大變動部分,但總數應低於 2023 年,我們對此非常有信心。關於您關於維護與客戶獲取的具體問題,我們不會打破另一個 - 我們不會更具體地打破這些問題,但我已經為您提供了圍繞消費者連接資本支出的構建塊。還有基於成功的商業和批發連接資本支出,其餘部分用於維護和其他。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·弗蘭納裡。
Simon William Flannery - MD
Simon William Flannery - MD
Great. On ACP, could you just size your exposure to that and how you think that would play out? You've got some big cable competitors with large ACP numbers. Do you see that as a potential opportunity in the event we're not seeing a refunding of that program. And you touched on BEAD earlier. Any updates on how the states in your footprint are what the programs the plans look like in terms of attractiveness for you. We've heard some of your peers suggest that certain states are attractive, but others, some of the requirements are less attractive for participation.
偉大的。在 ACP 方面,您能否估算一下您的風險敞口以及您認為這將如何發揮作用?一些大型有線電視競爭對手擁有大量 ACP。如果我們沒有看到該計劃的退款,您是否認為這是一個潛在的機會?您之前提到過 BEAD。關於您足跡中的州的任何更新,這些計劃對您的吸引力。我們聽說您的一些同行認為某些州很有吸引力,但在其他州,某些要求對參與的吸引力較小。
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Sure. Thanks, Simon. So on ACP question first, we have relatively low exposure to ACP. It's roughly 4% of our total broadband customer base. However, we do think ACP or some variation of it is an important program. We've seen in the last 5 years how critical it is for people to connect to the digital economy, whether that's work from home, school from home or telemedicine and those digital connections are a net positive for the economy.
當然。謝謝,西蒙。因此,首先就 ACP 問題而言,我們對 ACP 的接觸程度相對較低。這大約占我們寬頻客戶群總數的 4%。然而,我們確實認為 ACP 或其某些變體是一個重要的計劃。在過去的五年裡,我們已經看到人們連接到數位經濟是多麼重要,無論是在家工作、在家上學還是遠距醫療,這些數位連結對經濟來說是正面的。
If ACP funding does expire, we have plans that serve that segment of the market. We've already started rolling out some of those plans and we'll be ready for a range of scenarios. But either way, we don't expect the financial impact to us to be significant. On BEAD funding, I think we'll -- we've said before, we are excited to be a participant in BEAD. We have an active team. We've scaled up our team in the last 12 months. We've one, a lot of pre BEAD subsidy awards in ARPA.
如果 ACP 資金確實到期,我們將製定服務該細分市場的計劃。我們已經開始推出其中一些計劃,並將為一系列場景做好準備。但無論如何,我們預計這對我們的財務影響不會很大。關於 BEAD 資金,我想我們會——我們之前說過,我們很高興成為 BEAD 的參與者。我們有一支活躍的團隊。在過去 12 個月裡,我們擴大了團隊規模。我們在 ARPA 中獲得了許多 BEAD 前的補貼。
So we've reached a good operating rhythm in terms of being disciplined and capital allocators as it relates to subsidy programs. We're going to build where it makes sense, where the IRR of the subsidy build is equal to or better than our private build, and then we'll pass if it doesn't make sense. On specific states, we're very well set up for the way BEAD was allocated to the states. Texas and California are 2 biggest states. Texas and California got the 2 biggest allocations of the BEAD program. So we won't comment on the specific programs. Those are still under development. We share kind of peers' views that we need to make sure those programs make sense for the states but also the builders and we'll continue to be an active participant in those BEAD conversations.
因此,在與補貼計劃相關的紀律和資本分配方面,我們已經達到了良好的營運節奏。我們將在有意義的地方進行建設,補貼建設的 IRR 等於或優於我們的私人建設,然後如果沒有意義,我們就會通過。對於特定的州,我們已經為 BEAD 分配給各州的方式做好了準備。德克薩斯州和加利福尼亞州是兩個最大的州。德克薩斯州和加利福尼亞州獲得了 BEAD 計劃的兩個最大撥款。所以我們不會對具體方案發表評論。這些仍在開發中。我們同意同行的觀點,即我們需要確保這些計劃對各州和建設者都有意義,我們將繼續積極參與這些 BEAD 對話。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Frank Louthan with Raymond James.
我們的下一個問題來自 Frank Louthan 和 Raymond James。
Frank Garrett Louthan - MD of Equity Research
Frank Garrett Louthan - MD of Equity Research
Great. On the business and wholesale, what can you do to drive that higher? Is it more of a sales issue focusing on that or just having to flush out some bad contracts, what will it take to see that kind of get a bounce back. And then on the CapEx, I wonder if we could get a little color on the pacing.
偉大的。在商業和批發方面,您可以採取哪些措施來推動這項進步?是否更多的是關注這一問題的銷售問題,或者只是必須淘汰一些糟糕的合同,需要什麼才能看到這種反彈。然後在資本支出方面,我想知道我們是否可以在節奏上獲得一些色彩。
You said it's front-end loaded. Is the build schedule front-end loaded as well? Is that more evenly paced or is it equipment? And then also on how the vendor financing payments hit. Any color on the timing of those through the year would be helpful.
你說的是前端加載的。建置計劃前端是否也已載入?是節奏更均勻還是設備更均勻?然後還有供應商融資付款的影響。任何關於這一年的時間安排的顏色都會有幫助。
Nicholas Simon Jeffery - President, CEO & Director
Nicholas Simon Jeffery - President, CEO & Director
Frank, it's Nick here. So just on business and wholesale I mean the fact is we significantly outperformed the industry last year in our business and wholesale segment. Our business and wholesale revenue was down about 1.5% in 2023 versus the industry, which pretty consistently saw mid- to high single-digit declines. And pretty stably so over previous periods, whereas our trajectory is improving.
弗蘭克,我是尼克。因此,就業務和批發而言,我的意思是,事實上我們去年在業務和批發領域的表現明顯優於行業。與業界相比,2023 年我們的業務和批發收入下降了約 1.5%,而業界一直出現中高個位數的下降。與之前的時期相比,情況相當穩定,而我們的軌跡正在改善。
The bright spot continues to be our fiber business in business and wholesale as in consumer, which in the Business and Wholesale segment grew by 4% in 2023. So whilst Business and Wholesale did decline modestly in the fourth quarter, as we've already said, it is a lumpy business with the timing of large contracts and payments and so on. And we expect that segment to return to year-over-year growth in Q1. So as Scott already shared, we expect fiber growth to roughly offset copper declines in this segment, resulting in a stable performance overall of plus or minus 1% to 2%.
亮點仍然是我們的商業和批發纖維業務以及消費品業務,其中商業和批發業務在 2023 年增長了 4%。這是一個不穩定的業務,有大額合約和付款的時間安排等等。我們預計該細分市場將在第一季恢復同比增長。因此,正如 Scott 已經分享的那樣,我們預計光纖成長將大致抵消該領域銅纜的下降,從而實現正負 1% 至 2% 的整體穩定性能。
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
Scott C. Beasley - Executive VP & CFO
And Frank, on your second question related to CapEx pacing. Yes, so we said Q1 of '24 should be similar to Q1 of 2023 but then the difference of the shape, we expect a material step down in Q2 and then Q3 and Q4 should be lower as well. So that's primarily due to the pace of activity where we do a lot of activity either late in the year or early part of the year for builds that will open out throughout the year. That's taking in some inventory that's doing central office prework and so we'll see a front-end loaded nature but then have high confidence in that $30 billion to $3.2 billion for the full year.
法蘭克,關於你與資本支出節奏相關的第二個問題。是的,所以我們說 24 年第一季應該與 2023 年第一季類似,但形狀不同,我們預計第二季會出現實質下降,然後第三季和第四季也應該更低。這主要是由於活動的節奏,我們在今年年底或年初進行了大量活動,以進行全年開放的建造。這包括一些正在進行中央辦公室準備工作的庫存,因此我們將看到前端加載的性質,但對全年 300 億至 32 億美元的收入充滿信心。
And then on the vendor financing timing, we do think probably more of that gets paid in the first half than the second half. But again, it's too early to say exactly what will fall in vendor financing versus cash capital expenditures, but the key is overall capital investment. And that's one of the reasons we started discussing overall capital investment payment terms with suppliers are really a secondary issue.
然後就供應商融資時間而言,我們確實認為上半年支付的費用可能多於下半年。但同樣,現在確切地說供應商融資相對於現金資本支出的下降還為時過早,但關鍵是整體資本投資。這就是我們開始與供應商討論整體資本投資支付條款的原因之一,這實際上是次要問題。
Spencer Harris Kurn - SVP of IR
Spencer Harris Kurn - SVP of IR
That concludes our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. Thanks for joining us and look forward to speaking to you again next quarter.
我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您加入我們,並期待下季再次與您交談。
Operator
Operator
Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。