Six Flags Entertainment Corp (FUN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by.

My name is Novi, and I will be your conference operator today.

(Operator Instructions)

Thank you.

I would now like to turn the call over to Six Flags management.

Please go ahead.

Thank you, Novi, and good morning, everyone.

My name is Michael Russell, Corporate Director of Investor Relations for Six Flags.

Welcome to today's earnings call to review our 2024 fourth-quarter financial results for Six Flags Entertainment Corporation.

Earlier this morning, we distributed via wire service our earnings press release, a copy of which is also available under the news tab of our Investor Relations website at investors.sixflags.com.

Before we begin, I need to remind you that comments made during this file will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

These statements may involve risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those described in such statements.

For a more detailed discussion of these risks, you may refer to the company's filings with the SEC.

In compliance with the SEC's regulation FD, this webcast is being made available to the media and general public as well as analysts and investors because the webcast is open to all constituents and prior notification has been widely and unselectively disseminated.

All content on this call will be considered fully disclosed.

On the call with me this morning are Six Flags' Chief Executive Officer, Richard Zimmerman; and Chief Financial Officer, Brian Witherow.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Richard for some opening remarks.

Thank you, Michael.

Good morning and thanks, everyone, for joining us today.

As we close out 2024, I want to take a moment to recognize the incredible work of our team this past year.

I couldn't be more pleased with what we have accomplished, particularly since the completion of the merger, and I've never been more excited about what this company can achieve for our guests, associates, and shareholders moving forward.

Looking back at 2024, we wrapped up the year by delivering a record October performance and outstanding fourth quarter results, all while capturing close to half of our target merger-related cost synergies.

Through strong revenue growth and discipline cost management initiatives, we boosted modified EBITDA margins in the fourth quarter by 650 basis points, another meaningful step in returning operating margins back to historical levels.

And by taking decisive actions within days of finalizing the merger, we immediately drove guest satisfaction scores higher, a critically important first step in improving our cost value proposition and driving demand levels higher.

Heading into the 2025 season, early trends indicate consumer demand remains strong for high quality entertainment experiences.

Although it represents a limited sample size, attendance in the first two months of the year is up 2%, and sales of season pass units are up 3%, both positive indicators for the season ahead.

Given our strong 4th quarter and the solid start to 2025 at this time, we believe the general economic environment for our consumers remains healthy, with parkgoers showing a willingness to spend their entertainment dollars on the high quality and differentiated experience that we offer.

With that positive outlook as a backdrop and our integration efforts progressing well, we are targeting adjusted EBITDA of $1.08 billion to $1.12 billion this year, representing an initial step function of growth for our expanded portfolio.

Before I ask Brian to provide a closer look at our financial results, let me shift gears for a moment to address the recent wildfires in the LA area.

Our immediate concern at the time was for the safety and well-being of our guests, associates, and neighboring communities.

We are proud to have supported local first responders who use Magic Mountains parking areas for staging cruise and emergency equipment during critical containment efforts.

We are fortunate that neither Knottsbury Farm nor Magic Mountain was directly affected.

We will continue to monitor the situation closely, assessing any potential impact on our business as we get closer to the core operating season.

In the meantime, we remain focused on supporting our associates and local communities through the recovery.

With that, I'll turn it over to.

Thank you, Richard.

Good morning and thanks to everyone for joining us today.

I'll begin with a review of our 4th quarter performance before providing an update on select balance sheet items as well as early performance indicators for the season ahead.

Let me start with operating days.

On a consolidated basis, operating days in the fourth quarter totaled 878 days compared with 377 days during the fourth quarter last year.

This increase reflects the addition of 538 days from operations at Legacy Six Flags parks during the fourth quarter, partially offset by 37 fewer operating days at Legacy Cedar Fair Parks compared to the fourth quarter last year.

This decrease in legacy Cedar Fair operating days was primarily due to the fiscal calendar shift.

As the 2024 4th quarter began on September 30th, and the fourth quarter of 2023 began on September 25.

Moving on to our financial performance, for the fourth quarter, we generated net revenues of $687 million on attendance of 10.7 million visits.

These fourth-quarter results included $324 million in net revenues and attendance of 5 million visits from Legacy Six Flags operations.

Fourth quarter revenues from Legacy Cedar Fair operations decreased by $8 million compared to the 4th quarter last year, primarily due to 115,000 fewer visits during the period.

The decrease in attendance was the direct result of the fiscal calendar shift and the lower number of operating days in the period.

On a comparable fiscal calendar basis, Legacy Cedar Fair fourth quarter attendance would have been up 461,000 visits, reflecting strong demand for our October events.

Along with the outstanding October attendance numbers we produced at our Legacy Six Flags parks, these results support our belief that demand for the compelling entertainment we offer remains strong.

Looking at fourth quarter guest spending trends for a moment, in part per capita spending in the period was $61.60 representing an increase of 3% compared to the in part per cap reported by Legacy Cedar Fair in the fourth quarter last year.

Approximately 80% of the increase is related to the impact of operations at the Legacy Six Flags parks, with the balance attributable to higher in-par guest spending on food and beverage, extra-charge products, and merchandise at the Legacy Cedar Fair Parks.

This was reflected by a 3% increase in the average transactions per guest during the quarter, a key performance metric, and a core tenant of our long-term growth thesis.

It's worth noting that this momentum of positive guest spending trends carried over from the 3rd quarter, underscoring the enduring appeal of our immersive entertainment operates.

For the full year, the average transactions per guest at the Legacy Cedar Fair Parks increased 2%, with total transactions of more than 40 million, up 1.8 million transactions compared to 2023.

Meanwhile, out of park revenues for the fourth quarter totaled $48 million which included $14 million in revenues from Legacy Six Flags operations.

Out of park revenues from Legacy Cedar Fair operations decreased by $3 million the direct results of the fiscal calendar shift.

Moving on to the cost front, operating costs and expenses in the quarter totaled $523 million which included $233 million of operating costs and expenses from Legacy Six Flags operations.

Fourth quarter costs were comprised of $376 million of operating expenses, $89 million of SG&A expense, and $58 million of cost of goods sold.

Fourth quarter operating expenses included $180 million related to operations at Legacy Six Flags parks, partially offset by a $13 million decrease in operating expenses at Legacy Cedar Fair Parks.

The decrease in Legacy Cedar Fair operating expenses was largely related to the fiscal calendar shift.

Meanwhile, fourth quarter SG&A expenses included $27 million from Legacy Six Flags operations offset by a $4 million decrease in SG&A expenses at Legacy Cedar Fair operations.

This decrease reflects $11 million less in merger and integration-related costs, offset by slightly higher advertising spend in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The $58 million of cost of goods sold in the fourth quarter included $26 million related to Legacy Six Flags operations.

As a percentage of food, merchandise, and games revenue, costs of goods sold in the quarter increased 170 basis points.

The majority of the increase related to the inclusion of operations at the Legacy Six Flags parks.

Turning to adjusted EBITDA and modified EBITDA margin, two metrics which management believes are meaningful measures of park level operating results, compared to the fourth quarter last year, adjusted EBITDA for the 4th quarter of 2024 increased $120 million to $209 million.

While modified EBITDA margin improved 650 basis points to 30.4%.

The increase in adjusted EBITDA reflected $113 million from Legacy Six Flags operations and a $7 million increase from Legacy your fare operations, including the impact of the fiscal calendar shift.

The 650 basis point increase in modified EBITDA margin included a 410 basis points increase related to the Legacy Six Flags operations and a 240 basis point increase from Legacy Cer fair operations.

As we've noted on prior earnings calls, in addition to improving demand and guest spending, we remain focused on driving operating efficiencies and improving margins.

We are pleased to have realized approximately $50 million in gross cost synergies in 2024.

Of the total synergies achieved, $34 million was the result of labor and other operating efficiencies. $8 million came through savings from economies of scale in our supply chain.

And another $8 million resulted from eliminating duplicative overhead cost.

We've effectively delivered these synergies while at the same time improving guests satisfaction scores and continuing to drive higher attendance levels.

This has resulted in improvement both cost per guest and EBITDA per guest, two key performance metrics that our teams closely monitor.

During the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA per guests from Legacy Cedar Fair operations improved by 10%, reflecting the ongoing successful execution of our cost savings initiatives.

In 2025, we are confident in our ability to deliver another $70 million in planned cost savings from the merger.

Anticipating that approximately $20 million will be driven by further streamlining of our org structure, $30 million will be realized through rationalizing our vendor base and continuing to leverage our scales and negotiate better terms, and $20 million will come from a combination of further elimination of redundant processes, the integration of overlapping technology systems, and the right sizing of our park infrastructures and ride portfolios.

We will keep the market updated on our progress toward delivering these cost savings throughout the year and continue to look for opportunities to drive additional cost efficiencies as we implement our strategic initiatives.

Now turning to the company's balance sheet for a moment, we ended the year with $83 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand and approximately $5 billion of gross debt, including $315 million in borrowings on a revolving credit facility.

Of our outstanding debt, approximately 3 quarters is fixed through long-term notes, and outside of $200 million in senior notes which mature in July of this year, we have no significant maturities before 2027.

Including cash on hand and available revolver capacity, liquidity at the end of the year totaled $578 million providing us with ample financial flexibility going forward.

Deferred revenues at the end of the year totaled $308 million compared with $192 million of deferred revenues at the end of 2023.

The $117 million increase includes $123 million of deferred revenues at the Legacy Six Flags parks, offset by a decrease of $6 million at the Legacy Cedar Fair Parks.

The decrease in deferred revenues at the Legacy Cedar Fair Parks reflects the annual amortization of certain long-term deferred revenue items, the elimination of transaction fees in California as a result of changes in state regulations, and lastly, a slight decrease in sales of season passes and related products driven by two parks.

The modest decline in season pass sales is primarily a timing issue that can be recovered during the critical spring sale cycle, which historically represents more than 50% of full program sales.

Along those lines, as Richard mentioned, we are encouraged by the acceleration season pass sales to start the year.

The 3% lift in unit sales over the first two months of the year has been primarily driven by increased sales at our Legacy Six Flags parks, validating that our initiative initiatives are working and setting the stage for driving higher attendance levels at those parks.

Regarding our CapEx programs during the 4th quarter, we spent $93 million on capital expenditures, including $53 million at the Legacy Cedar Fair Parks and $40 million at the Legacy Six Flags parks.

For the full year, this brought total capital expenditures at the Legacy Cedar Fair Parks to $220 million and full year CapEx spend to $215 million at the Legacy Six Flags Park, $115 million of which was invested by Legacy Six Flags before the merger closed.

For calendar year 2025, we expect cash spend on capital expenditures will total $475 million to $500 million including some level of investment on deferred items at the Legacy Six Flags parks.

Going forward, we will continue to look for ways to most efficiently manage our capital investments as we focus on maximizing the company's free cash flow.

For additional modeling purposes.

In 2025, we are planning 5,852 total operating days, similar to the 5,851 operating days across the combined portfolios in 2024.

For 2025, we are projecting full year depreciation and amortization of approximately $450 million which reflects the impact of fair value adjustments to the legacy Six Flags assets as a result of the merger.

And lastly, from a cash flow perspective, we are projecting annualized cash interest payments in 2025 of $305 million to $315 million.

And after some additional tax planning efforts, annualized cash tax payments of $105 to $115 million.

We will continue to manage cash flow tightly and consistent with the objectives within our long-term strategic plan, we expect to accelerate the growth of free cash flow as IEA grows and as our CapEx needs moderate.

Before I turn the call back to Richard, let me provide some additional color around our new 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance.

While we are confident we have the initiatives and capital program in place to achieve our revenue, growth, and cost savings targets, we are keeping an eye on two developing macro factors.

First, although the recent wildfires in California have subsided, we are closely monitoring.

Any residual impact these events may have on our Southern California parks.

Knott's Berry Farm and Magic Mountain are two of our highest EBITA properties, and any material headwinds on season pass sales or general demand could have an impact on our overall performance in 2025.

Second is the impact foreign currency exchange rates could have on the reported results from our non-domestic parts.

Based on the current outlook around exchange rates, we've we've assumed approximately $7 million to $8 million of incremental FX pressure on EBITDA in 2025 compared to 2024.

However, any significant variability from our assumptions could further impact our US dollar reported results this year.

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Richard.

Thanks, Brian.

Before we open up the call for questions, I want to take a moment to provide our perspective on what lies ahead, including the incredible opportunity we have in 2025 and beyond.

It has been my long-held belief that sustainable growth in this industry requires two fundamental factors discipline, thoughtful leadership with an unwavering guest-centric focus and the consistent reinvestment of resources.

To that end, our strategic plan is designed to drive higher attendance, improve guest spending, and optimize operating efficiencies, all while ensuring we deliver world-class entertainment experiences.

The potential for attendance growth at our parks is significant and represents the biggest opportunity for sustainable cash flow growth and shareholder value creation.

The investments that make up our 2025 capital program are the first of a multi-year plan designed to enhance the guests' experience and increase demand, improving market penetration rates throughout our portfolio.

In addition to projects and initiatives intended to increase guest spending, eliminate consumer pain points, and improve backup house efficiencies, we are investing in exciting new demand driving attractions at some of our largest and most profitable parks.

All told, we are introducing major new attractions at 11 of our 14 largest properties.

For example, Cedar Point is adding to its world-class collection of thrill rides with the addition of a record-breaking tilt coaster called Siren's Curse and the highly anticipated return of Top Thrill 22 rides every coaster enthusiast needs to experience.

Six Flags Great America introduces Wrath of Rakshasha, the world's steepest dive coaster and the first major new coaster added at the park in more than 6 years.

Canada's wonderland is adding Alpenfury, Canada's tallest and fastest launch coaster, which will be located in the park's iconic mountain structure.

Six Flags New England will unleash the region's first multi-launch straddle coaster called Quantum Accelerator.

Adding to its collection of thrill rides, King's Dominion is introducing Rapterra, the world's tallest and longest launched wing coaster.

Six Flags Great Adventure will open Flash Vertical Velocity, a launched super boomerang coaster which will greatly enhance the park's front gate area.

Six Flags Over Georgia will debut Gold Rusher, a unique free spinning, high speed, high elevation gondola ride that will be the first of several new rides we plan to add to the park as we look to tap the full potential of the very attractive Atlanta market.

And lastly, to help expand our appeal to young families and set the stage for our growing season pass base, we have invested in transformational makeovers of the Hurricane Harbor water parks at both Six Flags Magic Mountain and Six Flags Over Texas, while also expanding and enhancing the family offerings in Camp Snoopy at Carowinds and the DC universe at Six Flags Fiesta, Texas.

It's a strong capital lineup, and I hope you can tell why we are so excited about the season ahead.

I also want to provide an update on our ongoing portfolio optimization efforts, as we noted on our last earnings call, as part of Project Accelerate, we initiated a comprehensive review of our properties, including excess and undeveloped land with the goal of optimizing our asset base, narrowing management's focus, and reducing risk.

We've completed our initial review, having identified properties that are less strategic and critical to our long-term growth objectives, property properties that we would consider divesting under the right circumstances.

These include some of the smaller non-core parks as well as excess undeveloped land that isn't critical to future expansion plans.

As an example, we are currently in the process of marketing undeveloped land adjacent to our park in Richmond, Virginia, and I'm pleased to say that these efforts have produced significant interest.

Although there is still much work to be done, we are optimistic that our ongoing discussions will result in a transaction within the next 12 to 18 months.

Regarding certain smaller non-core properties, we are continuing to evaluate options, and over time we will consider transactions that enhance shareholder value.

In the meantime, we are excited at the prospects of operating all 42 of our parks this season.

We will continue to pursue initiatives to further enhance the performance of these valuable and unique assets that will not only contribute to our financial results but also support the local communities in which they operate.

Consistent with those efforts, we are taking decisive steps to unlock the full potential of our combined portfolio and increase shareholder value.

The positive impact of our initiatives is already evident in better guest satisfaction scores, higher attendance levels, and improving operating margins, all of which reinforce our confidence in delivering on our ultimate goal of driving long-term growth and free cash flow.

With momentum at our backs, we have a tremendous opportunity to showcase the resiliency and strength of our business model in 2025.

As we head into the peak operating season, we do so with confidence and excitement for what lies ahead.

We have the right strategies and team in place, and we see a clear path to success.

We are focused on building on the momentum we've established as well as delivering an outstanding 2025 season for our guests, associates, and shareholders alike.

We look forward to sharing more details on our outlook for the season ahead and our long-term strategy at our upcoming Investor Day on May 20 at Cedar Point.

This event will provide attendees with an in-depth look at how our strategic initiatives are transforming our operations and enhancing our performance across the combined portfolio.

Our investor relations department will be providing additional details about the event in the coming weeks.

We open up the call for questions, I want to take a moment to express my sincere gratitude to our teams across all 42 parks, as well as our resort properties for their unwavering dedication and hard work during this pivotal period of transition.

Their efforts.

Whether supporting local first responders during the California wildfires, seamlessly integrating our IT systems, or delivering exceptional service to millions of guests have been nothing short of extraordinary.

Their passion and commitment are the driving forces of our success.

That concludes our prepared remarks.

Please open up the line for questions.

(Operator Instructions) Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

Yeah, hey guys, good morning.

So Richard or Brian, as we think about guidance for this year, just wondering if you could help us, from a high level perspective, kind of help us think about what's embedded, or what are some of the assumptions that are embedded to get to your guidance range?

Meaning, how you're thinking about attendance, how you're thinking about per caps.

You already gave us some of the metrics around the cost side of things.

So I think we're good there.

And then just want to be sure that the 55 million attendance targets you laid out for 2027 is still in play at this point?

Steve, good morning.

Good question.

Let me jump in here and then Brian can comment on some of the specifics.

I think about this year in understanding our need and what we've articulated driving top line revenue growth while being as efficient as possible, I step back to my prepared remarks and think about the capital lineup.

I think the capital lineup gives us an opportunity to get more to drive market penetration, which we're focused on.

As that shows up during the second and third quarters, our biggest quarters in the back half of the year, I think about getting people to come to the parks more often, and I think about them staying longer.

Everything we're doing is trying to tap into making the parks more comfortably crowded.

We think more comfortably crowded leads to higher revenue levels, good flow through to EBITDA and considerable free cash flow growth.

Brian?

Yeah, just to add on Richard's comments, Steve, any year we go in and build one of these plans, I would tell you sort of our high-level assumptions are that weather patterns are generally going to be normal.

We don't, build in expectations for, extreme events.

It doesn't mean every day is going to be 82 and sunny either, but the weather patterns are going to be normal now.

I think.

The more diversified portfolio as we saw over the second half of the year helps mitigate some of the risk that does come with the macro effects of weather.

We've also assumed that there's no meaningful downturn in the broader economic environment or consumer behavior.

And as we said on the call, while there are some expected pressures from a decline in FX rates, we're, what we've assumed to this point is that those don't decline significantly from where they currently stand.

And then as it relates to, your comment about inflation or cost pressures, we, we've built a plan that that generally offsets a normal level of inflation.

So I think the range that we've provided allows for some fluctuation in each one of those things, both up and down, to get to the high end or the low end of of the range.

Okay, let me -- yeah, so, okay.

That was going to be kind of my second question.

Let me ask it a little bit differently and see if you give any different color.

I'm guessing not, but so it sounds like, okay, to get to the midpoint of that range, weather is essentially normal.

There's not a material impact from California.

FX kind of stays neutral, in my kind of thinking about that right, so if we got to the low end of that range, weather probably kicks in.

Maybe there's some pressure from California FX and then the high end spend patterns are probably a little bit better than what you're expecting.

I'm kind of talking out loud here, but is that kind of the way to think about how you get from the low end to the high end?

Yeah, I think it's generally accurate.

I think consistent with Richard said that, I mean, the real upside and opportunity of the merger has always been the ability to leverage step functions in attendance.

And as Richard noted, growing attendance.

And not only is beneficial from a volume perspective, but it's highly beneficial from a guest spending perspective because as we've talked about and articulated in the past, larger days, comfortably crowded parks lead to longer length of days, higher per caps, a higher level of demand for premium experiences like front of line passes.

Cabanas, VIP lounges, et cetera.

So I think that the way you describe it, Steve, is pretty accurate, right?

The upper end is going to require, more growth out of attendance, which translates into more guest spending as well.

Okay, that's great color.

Thanks, guys.

I appreciate it and best of luck.

Thank you.

James Hardiman, Citi.

Hey, good morning.

So Richard, I wanted to touch on some of the discussion that that you brought up in terms of the portfolio optimization efforts.

Maybe walk us through how you're going to be thinking about, as you put it, value creation.

When it comes to maybe monetizing some of the smaller parts, what's the framework?

Does the fact that leverage is higher than normal and cash flows are pressured sort of change your willingness to part ways with some of those parts?

And I just look back at the deal that you made for Great America, however long ago that was.

Basically, you had a high real estate value and a low EBITDA contribution from that park which made it sort of a gold mine in a lot of ways to monetize.

Is that sort of how you think about the puts and takes in terms of individual parts and sort of your willingness to maybe monetize?

Thanks.

A lot of portfolio optimization becomes a strategic decision.

We're trying to accomplish a lot of things over the next few years, James.

So as we think about it starts with understanding that these are unique and very valuable assets.

They are irreplaceable.

Most parks don't trade very often.

As we saw with Great America, there was great real estate value.

Now that usually comes to the forefront in areas that are more populated, but sometimes there's unique circumstances like our park near Richmond, Virginia where we've got excess land that is available.

That's not generating cash flow or even for us that we can find a way to generate a little bit of cash flow.

Not unusual.

We did that back in all 2000 the way back in 2008 as well on the Legacy cedar side.

We sold some 80 acres north of our Toronto bar.

So as we think through the framework, we want to make sure we understand what role each park plays in the broader portfolio, as we said, part of this is potentially reducing the complexity of our operations, but we like the geographic diversification.

So as we think this through, we're going to keep all the strategic and financial goals in mind and make sure that whatever decisions we make going forward we get value for anything.

That potentially we may optimize, but that also that it accomplishes what we need to do going forward and that we get to the long term guidance that we have laid out and we will lay out on May 20.

Brian, anything you want to add?

I mean, I would just maybe emphasize again that the focus right of optimizing the portfolio or that exercise, James, was really about narrowing management's focus, reducing risk and optimizing that the overall asset base as we talked about in the past.

A relative to just the legacy cedar side of the portfolio, and it's true on our on the Six Flags side of the portfolio, 90%-plus of the EBITDA is generated from a smaller group of parks.

It's not, spread evenly across the 31 locations of the 42 gates.

And so, I think as as we think about, Richard said tapping into the growth potential, narrowing our focus to where the opportunities are and the returns are the highest is going to be important.

And part of that is also the step you saw us take in terms of the notice to acquire the outside non-controlling interest in the Atlanta Park, Six Flags over Georgia, as that's a very attractive market in our long-term growth thesis.

Got it.

And then there's been a lot of discussion on the $120 million of cost synergies.

Maybe give us an update of the -- once upon a time at least it was $80 million of revenue synergies that you'd identified.

What if anything has been realized so far on that front?

Has that number moved around at all?

How should we be thinking about timing?

And then maybe, more specifically to call out one potential synergy opportunity that the whole passport path I think it's called early indicators of how popular, you ultimately think that's going to be and what it can contribute?

Thanks.

Yeah, as it relates, James, to the revenue synergies, I guess two points I'd make there.

First is you're not closing the merger until mid 2024, sort of put us maybe a year behind on the revenue synergy side because so much of the opportunity there ties back to some system integrations, getting on common ticketing platforms, et cetera, unlike cost energy where we could sort of pick up midstream at least a good chunk of them.

It was a little more challenging on the revenue.

So we still are optimistic and confident in those numbers.

But what I would say is I tie back to an earlier comment, the real opportunity and focus of the of the of the merger is the attendance opportunities and of the combined portfolio, which represents much more upside than that $80 million revenues synergy number that was discussed in the Q4, probably half or maybe a little bit more than half of that was tied, as you noted, to, the potential for the all-season park add-on pass.

And I would say, this is the first year that that's out there for the combined portfolio.

Early adoption has been encouraging, but it's still very early and so there's a lot more work to be done there so we're going to be focused on initiatives like that over the next year or two, harmonizing systems and trying to extract the full value of something like that.

But I think really what I'm what the team is most focused on again is that broader attendance opportunity and what that can mean for the combined portfolio.

Got it.

And just if I just may -- just one clarification.

As I think about whether it's that $80 million in synergies or the all-par pass, what if anything from either of those is built into the guidance that you've laid out today for 2025?

Anything related to the all-par passes, the expectation for '25, given that we're still in the process of harmonizing ticketing systems is very modest.

More of the growth is coming from the other thing, other initiatives that we began to see even in the second half of '24, and the capital program that, Richard walked through some of the highlights of that.

That's more the driver behind the attendance growth that we're expecting in 2025.

Got it.

Thanks, Brian.

Thanks, Richard.

Thanks, James.

Matthew Boss, J.P. Morgan.

Great.

Thanks.

So Richard, on the top line, could you elaborate on the cadence of attendance that you saw in the fourth quarter versus October and just relative to 3% attendance in 2024 as a whole?

Just help us to think about growth drivers in '25 and puts and takes between volume and per caps.

Yeah, when I think about the fourth quarter again, we got great traction, a little bit choppier on the weather front as we got into November and December, but as Brian said, as we pointed out the benefit of our now combined portfolios were geographically diversified, so weather has less of an impact on the overall portfolio, more concentrated in different areas.

As we've always seen, good response to our holiday in the park events or our winter fest events, depending on which market you're in.

It's a multi-generation appeal, brings a different kind of audience, also helps us support our season pass sales as we go through the winter period.

What I'm most encouraged about fourth-quarter transition in '25 is the 2% up in attendance early in the first couple of months, as we look at the momentum and the 3% in season fast sales.

Particularly as I watch them day by day, which we do, we're starting to see exactly what we'd want to see to see that the momentum is continuing as we go into '25.

So as we get into the springtime, start opening up our parks, I think we've got lots of stories to tell in each of our respective markets, things that will drive the attendance, which again we'll keep reiterating.

I think is the capturing market potential, driving attendance levels higher, that's the real benefit of this merger and where we think the most opportunity is.

But as we get into the springtime, I think there's a lot of interest in our parks opening up again, a lot of intrigue with what potentially may be new, and we've got a lot of things we can share with the market as we get into that.

And I would always say this about our business model.

The higher the attendance, that may pressure the admission per cap a little bit because when we are 60%, 55% to 60% season pass, that's how the math works.

But the higher the attendance levels, the better the revenue number and the better the EBITDA.

The more the more people we can put on days we're already open, those are higher margin guests, and that's what really drives our performance.

Great.

And then Brian, on the cost side, where do you see us today on the multi-year OpEx cost curve as we're thinking about legacy Six Flags?

Just thinking operating expense growth relative to revenues multi-year.

Yeah, so when we look at the portfolio and we've been very clear coming into this past year 2024 before the merger closed on the Cedar Fair side we had gotten to the point in our playbook where we had reestablished demand.

We had gotten back nearly back to pre-pandemic attendance levels, and our focus had turned towards optimizing that cost structure.

We took big steps forward, as we mentioned. $50 million of cost synergies in 2024.

That was probably general split about two-thirds at our legacy cedar parks, maybe a third of those synergies at the at the Six Flags parks.

And so there's there's more work to be done on that front.

You can't get it all in one fell swoop, and nor do you want to from a from a guest service perspective.

And so it fits into our target of delivering $70 million of gross cost synergies as we get into 2025.

Again, a lot of that as we talked about is going to come from the field and optimizing cost structures, leveraging.

A scale, as we think about the Six Flags parks in our portfolio, they've been more efficiently run there, so it will probably again skew a little bit more heavily on the cedar parks, but feel pretty confident with the plan that we have in place and any pressure on it.

At this point, Matt, our view is going to be more volume driven, and that'll be a good problem to have, right, if we have some more variable costs in the system because attendance growth is even better than planned or is at the high end of what we're targeting.

That's a Type A problem that we'll manage.

Great, best of luck.

Thomas Yeh, Morgan Stanley.

Thanks, good morning.

I wanted to get your updated thoughts on the attendance opportunity as it relates to the operating calendar piece of it.

You talked about comfortably crowded, but I think previously you also mentioned the opportunities to enhance the season pass holder value and add days at the margin that would be the dot positive.

I think your guide is for a similar number of days versus last year, such as maybe dimensionalizing your puts and takes around the calendar would be helpful.

Yeah, in broad strokes you'll see a few more days being added to the second and the third quarters and a few less days in the fourth quarter.

So we're shifting the days, taking out some lower margin days in the fourth quarter and establishing a little bit longer hours, but also, adding some calendar days in the meat of the summer where some of the parks were closed early on.

Okay, so the balance of that suggests that on a net basis, you're still getting higher value days on a per day basis, it seems?

Correct.

Okay, understood.

And then maybe just an update on season pass pricing.

I mean, you rolled out, I think, a different, more consistent method on pricing for the Legacy Six Flags footprint.

Is the view that on balance -- you still want to end up higher on blended pricing for season pass units sold or there may be a focus on just growing the base earlier on?

That's our goal in every year.

We try and drive the higher volumes, take price in the markets where we can.

We always acknowledge that the capital lineup gives us pricing power.

But one of the things that as you evaluate this year over year, there was -- if you look at the prior year, there was not the same approach on the legacy 6 side, so there'd be a higher price for a period of time, a lower price for a period of time.

We're rolling over all those things and really retraining the markets in terms of what the program will be.

But again, even as we look at the most recent trends, up 3% in the first two months, really encouraged by the sales that are going on broadly across the Six Flags marketplaces and those markets.

But as we think about the combined portfolio.

I think season pass continues to be the driver of our success.

There's so many reasons, particularly in an environment where the consumer has more choices, so many reasons to buy the pass, and we just, as I said earlier, we just want to make sure that we understand people that there's lots of reasons to come out early, come out often, and stay longer.

Appreciate the colors.

Thank you.

Chris Woronka, Deutsche Bank.

Hey guys, good morning.

Thanks for taking the question.

So this would be a little bit of a follow-up to the prior question, but do you think it's possible to kind of assume or speculate that Six Flags pass holders might be legacy Six Flags passholders might just be delaying their buying decision?

They know that there's been a change in ownership of the parks, and they maybe want to see what happens when these things open in April and I don't know if you can remind us of the kind of mix of what you get after the parks open in terms of past sales?

Is it reasonable to assume that you might get some uplift from the legacy 6 Flags visitors later in the season this year?

Well, I think, maybe just, leveling up for a second, Chris, to your point, in terms of timing, I would always like to get off to a fast start, right, fall, winter sales, it's great to get ahead of the game.

And as we said, we're encouraged by the early momentum we're seeing on the on the 6 side, and it can differ park to park, but that fall winter sales period, can often be as much as 25% or 30% of the full program.

That said, the core of the sales or the largest portion of the sales happens during the critical spring cycle, which is you.

For some parts as much as 60%, but it's usually somewhere between about 50% to 60% of full program sales.

So that's most critical.

I think in any consumer decision, what we've seen historically is that guests are looking for proof points.

I always see a little bit more momentum in season pass sales.

The reason that spring is such a driver is we're a little heavier in market.

With advertising, the amusement parks are coming back online.

We're a little bit more front of mind.

And so, we do believe that the changes that we made in the second half of 2024 within the parks, operating more rides, staying open a little bit longer, some of the cleanup work that we were doing, painting of attractions, et cetera.

All of those things start to become proof points for the.

Things are going to be different and there's a reason to buy and come.

Now the key for our teams are not only selling more passes but then also converting that into more visits per pass.

We've talked about the delta between average visitation between the two sides of the combined portfolio and the opportunity presented there, that will ultimately you know tie it back to Thomas's question about.

Our ability, we're really excited about the long-term opportunities to grow season pass pricing at our parks, particularly at the Six Flags parks, because there is a big delta.

We've talked about it publicly.

Average season pass price at a Six Flags park in our portfolio is in the low to mid 70s.

At Cedar Fair Park in the portfolio, it's it's $110 million to $115 million and a big driver behind that is the is the delta and the average visitation.

So this isn't a one year fix or or a one year growth story.

This is just year one of the growth story.

Okay, I appreciate all that commentary.

Just as a follow-up, this is kind of a CapEx question, and you've provided the guidance for '25 now.

Where do you think you are in terms of as the as the parks begin to open, in April, where do you think you are on the list?

On kind of the catch-up maintenance, some of the maintenance CapEx that that wasn't done over the years versus some of the more structural changes you're trying to make in terms of food and beverage outlets and things like that.

If you can just maybe break those buckets down a little bit for this year, thanks.

Chris, one of the things that we've seen where we have parks that have performed well over the arc of their development is that consistent investment matters as much as what you invest in.

So as we think about '25, '26, '27, it's that ability to show the guests there's something new.

Come on out, we're making changes.

We're certainly redesigning the landscape.

We put things in, we take things out, we focus on making sure that we're driving and evolving our ability to service folks once they get into the park.

That's been the key to driving our in-park revenue.

So as we think about it, I would say that I'm really pleased with what I think we're going to get out of the '25 capital lineup.

I'm excited for the changes we can make in '26 and increasingly in '27.

So in all of our markets in the combined portfolio, not just the 6, I think we're going to show the consumer that there's great value and again I'll always go back to what drives our investment decisions is listening to our guests, doing that consumer research, and making sure we're investing in the things that they'll give us credit for and that we'll create a higher perceived value, keeping that value, that price value equation in mind and making sure we're working on the value side of it.

As Brian said, that's key to driving price over the long term while still getting the attendance lift.

Okay, very good.

Thanks, guys.

Michael Schwartz, Trust Securities.

Hey, good morning, guys.

Maybe just to start, I think I'm doing the math correctly, the legacy Six Flags parks grew attendance about 16% every year in the fourth quarter.

As I understand it, there were, I think you said something like 1,520 extra operating days for those parks around the holidays?

Is there any way of looking at like on a like for like day basis what the attendance growth look like?

Yeah, my guess, Brian.

On the sixth side, if there wasn't at those parts in the portfolio, the operating day Delta was not the main driver.

I think what we would say that the core driver of the lift in attendance was, the execution, the successful execution of a great plan to invest heavily in and expand the offerings of the fright fest events.

Which was received very well.

That was just lifted by the fact that the 5 weeks of October were some great weather across the portfolio across the country, all the parts in the portfolio.

So we were very encouraged.

Your numbers are pretty close.

It was a mid-teens lift there and like we talked about on the on the cedar side, if you normalize the fiscal calendar shift, it was a high.

Digit increase.

The bar was a little bit lower at our Six Flags parks.

2023 October was disrupted by a lot of inclement weather, particularly on the on the East Coast.

And so our comparisons were favorable weather-wise.

That wasn't as much of a headwind at our Cedar legacy parks.

So we're really pleased about that high single digit increase at those parks.

Okay, great, thank you.

And sticking with that, I think per caps may have came in a little softer than what we thought maybe many in the industry thought.

Just maybe walk through some of the puts and takes there.

Was currency an issue?

Was park mix a factor as well?

Yeah, it is, it always comes down to, I think some of those things, right?

Mike, which is the park mix and the performance can play into it.

I will say, admissions when anytime you see that kind of lift, and Richard alluded to this earlier, when attendance is up that strongly, near double digits or in the case of the 6 parts in a month like October, mid-teens, a lot of that's coming from lower admission per cap channels.

I don't mean to say that in a bad way.

It's season pass.

It's maybe more groups.

It's great attendance and revenue to have, but it does put pressure on emissions per cap.

So we saw a little bit of emissions per cap pressure, but as we said, we saw in park spend for a lot of the reasons that we articulated earlier on the call increasing, right?

The parks being a bit more crowded, people stay a little bit longer, they spend more when they stay longer.

They buy the premium experiences and so.

Of that worked in our favor.

We did see a little bit of headwinds around FX in both Canada and Mexico, and you know that's consistent with what you know our prepared remarks, my comments during that part of the call, where, we know where we ended the year in terms of exchange rates, there's erosion from where we began the year.

Now hopefully that's stabilized, but we'll see how it goes as we roll into 2025.

Okay, great, thanks Brian.

David Katz, Jefferies.

Thank you.

Hi, good morning, everybody.

Thanks for taking my questions.

Two quick ones.

I know you've talked about some of these items, but I'd love a little more perspective on where you are so far with respect to technology and your ability to sort of capture data and put that to productive use?

And then my second, one for Brian.

And is just going back to the guidance, which does not include any weather events, and this is a question for so much of our coverage.

Is there not a new normal that includes some abnormalities?

And just wondering how you thought about that and zero snarkiness intended in that portion of the question.

Thanks.

Let me take the first one.

I'll have Brian take the second one.

Thanks, David.

As we look at what coming into this merger, one of the things we're very excited about is that we focused on for the last several years is building out our business intelligence, our reliance on data, making sure we can get to the data that has been a priority after we completed the merger, even though we don't have everybody all harmonized on the same systems, we found ways to extract the data and in our weekly business performance meeting that we hold every week on.

A midweek, make sure we're evaluating the same type of data and the same data across all of the combined portfolios.

So that's been a priority for us, we really are now using new KPIs that 20 years ago we didn't focus on transactions per guest, average transaction value.

We're, making sure that we're we're balancing out the.

Yes, the OSAT, the guest satisfaction scores with our ability to drive revenue, with our ability to drive the business.

So I would say that that we're going to continue to make progress on that in 25.

Data and the analytics around it are how we make decisions and we've embedded both the art and science into our weekly cadence as we go through the an operating season, Brian.

Yeah, David, as it relates to the weather, I guess let me clarify my earlier comment.

The midpoint of our range would assume what we would characterize as a normal operating year from a weather perspective.

And by that we mean we're going to have some headway.

From weather, it's going to rain on days.

It's going to, not be ideal.

The forecasts aren't always going to be in our favor, but those tend to average themselves out and I, as we noted, in a much more diverse geographically diversified portfolio now as a combined company.

We think that helps mitigate that risk.

What we haven't tried to do is be any smarter than we can be and predict, when a hurricane is going to hit and which market it's going to hit.

We know those things tend to happen to the extent that they Ahead of, historical sort of trends that pushes you towards the lower end of the range to the to the extent that we get better weather like we saw in October, right?

I mean, the record October performance is one where our weather backdrop was outstanding.

And so from that perspective, the upside comes into play.

So that's how we think about weather, and I think the other last thing I guess I would say on that front, David, is why we're so focused on things like growing season pass sales, group bookings, hotel reservations.

Those are all natural weather hedges when it comes to visitation.

Really helpful.

Thank you.

Thanks, David.

Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

Hi there, thanks for taking the question and sorry if I've missed this.

My line dropped for a second, but just on the first quarter, just thinking about like the calendar shift impacts, whether that's from Easter leap year, any operating day aspect when New Year's Day fell and things like that.

Just trying to think of -- I know there's been a lot of calendar shifts over the past year that have kind of muddied the waters a bit, just what we should kind of bear in mind for the first quarter?

Yeah, Lizzie it's Brian.

So I guess what I can say at the top is I'm very excited to say that we don't have any fiscal quarter calendar comparability issues like we had this past year.

So hopefully that's going to make life a little bit easier as we as we go through.

That said, in any calendar year there's always some shifts.

Easter is going to fall later this year, shifting from Q1 to Q2, just at a high level I would say that later timing historically has benefited us with the, maybe as you get a little bit deeper into the calendar whether volatility, starts to lessen a little bit.

Early Easter is always a little bit more challenging from a weather perspective, particularly, at a handful of the parks that aren't located in markets like California or Texas.

That said, I don't want to put too much emphasis on, the timing of Easter because again it's a fraction of full portfolio parks that are in operations, so it's not a huge difference.

By the time we announce first quarter numbers, we should be in a position, we'll to provide guidance or provide an update on where results are through April which will help hopefully wash out.

Of those timing issues as we look at the balance of the year, again we're going to have similar, at least the plan is to have a similar number of operating days.

We're going to focus adding days more valuable times of the year and taking days out at higher risk, less valuable times of the year, but from a quarterly comparison, I think you're going to see, less noise than you did this past year because the fiscal calendar is lining up.

Got it.

That's helpful.

And just to go back to the per cap side of things again, just thinking about like the Legacy Six Flags, I think based on what you've said, $324 million of revenue, 5 million attendees, it's like total revenue per cap down 5.5%.

You said impact was up.

So I think that would imply admissions back out was down, somewhere in the high-single-digit range if I'm thinking about that correctly?

I know it's a light quarter, but just any way to think about that?

Is that the right way of thinking about the run rate for this year or anything unusual that happened there or just a function of higher season pass and whatnot?

Yeah, I'd say it's probably more a function of math and averages on a small slice of the business.

I wouldn't say that's the expectation for a run rate for a full year 2025.

Look, as Richard noted, if we get the attendance lift that we're targeting or even better, that will put pressure on admissions per cap.

We call that a Type A problem to have because with it it's going to come a much higher attendance and revenue base.

Which is the ultimate goal.

We are leaning in to price in certain markets, the beauty about being a house of brands, company, we don't have to price the same way in every market, and our strategies and approaches can vary part by part, always informed, as Richard said, by the guess feedback we're getting by the broader economic backdrops in each of our markets.

As we look to 2025, we've been very clear it's a volume focus drive season pass sales, increased group bookings, et cetera.

And so, when we typically look for or run the volume playbook, we're a little less aggressive.

On pricing, but that doesn't mean we don't take pricing.

And so I think what we'd like to see is low to mid single digit increases in pricing in most of our markets.

But the point about, mix that will impact, what where that ultimately lands, both mix of channel and also mix of par performance.

That's helpful.

Thank you.

Thanks.

Ian Zaffino, Oppenheimer.

Hey, good morning.

This is Isaac Sellhausen for Ian.

Thanks for taking all the questions.

I just had one here on attendance trends for the first two months here.

Is there any way to quantify or understand the impact of the California wildfires on knots or Magic Mountain and would growth potentially have been higher than 2%.

Thanks for the question.

I'll just say, listen, we only closed Magic Mountain one day for high winds.

We're monitoring and, certainly have seen the trends there.

What I'm encouraged by is what I've seen out of that market over the last several days, and we watch it daily as well as weekly.

So I think, in any small slice, yes, if you get better weather, don't have these anomalous events, you're going to have higher percentage growth than what you see.

But all in all, I feel really pleased with how we're starting out in all our markets right now with the momentum we've gotten '25, so I'll just keep my comments to the broader portfolio.

Okay, understood, thanks very much guys.

I will now turn the call back over to Richard Zimmerman for closing remarks.

Thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call.

We look forward to your continued support and interest in our company.

Brian, Michael, and I look forward to seeing many of you in person at our Investor Day in May or an investor conference later this year.

Thanks, Richard.

Feel free to contact our investor relations department at 419-627-2233.

Our next earnings call will be in early May with the release of our first quarter results.

That's the end of our call today.

Thanks for joining us.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call.

Thank you all for joining.

You may now disconnect.