Fulton Financial Corp (FULT) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fulton Financial Third Quarter 2023 Results. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎閱讀富爾頓金融 2023 年第三季業績。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would like now to turn the conference over to Matt Jozwiak, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 Matt Jozwiak。請繼續。

Thank you, Michelle, and good morning, and thanks for joining us for Fulton Financial Corporation's conference call and webcast to discuss our earnings for the third quarter, which ended September 30, 2023.

謝謝米歇爾，早安，感謝您參加富爾頓金融公司的電話會議和網路廣播，討論我們截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的第三季收益。

Your host for today's conference call is Curt Myers, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Joining Curt is Mark McCollom, Chief Financial Officer.

今天電話會議的主持人是董事長兼執行長 Curt Myers。加入 Curt 的是財務長 Mark McCollom。

Our comments today will refer to the financial information and related slide presentation included with our earnings announcement, which was released yesterday afternoon. These documents can be found on our website at fult.com by clicking on Investor Relations and then on News. The slides can also be found on the Presentations page under our Investor Relations website.

我們今天的評論將參考昨天下午發布的收益公告中包含的財務資訊和相關幻燈片演示。這些文件可以在我們的網站 fult.com 上找到，方法是點擊“投資者關係”，然後點擊“新聞”。這些幻燈片也可以在我們的投資者關係網站下的簡報頁面上找到。

On this call, representatives of Fulton may make forward-looking statements with respect to Fulton's financial condition, results of operations and business. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, and actual results could differ materially. Please refer to the safe harbor statement on forward-looking statements in our earnings release on Slide 2 of today's presentation for additional information regarding these risks, uncertainties and other factors. Fulton undertakes no obligation, other than as required by law, to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議上，富爾頓的代表可能會就富爾頓的財務狀況、營運績效和業務發表前瞻性聲明。這些陳述並非對未來績效的保證，並受到風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，實際結果可能有重大差異。有關這些風險、不確定性和其他因素的更多信息，請參閱今天演示文稿幻燈片 2 中的收益發布中有關前瞻性陳述的安全港聲明。除法律要求外，富爾頓不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

In discussing Fulton's performance, representatives of Fulton may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the supplemental financial information included with Fulton's earnings announcement released yesterday as well as Slides 16 through 20 of today's presentation for a reconciliation of those non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures.

在討論富爾頓的表現時，富爾頓的代表可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱富爾頓昨天發布的收益公告中包含的補充財務資訊以及今天簡報的幻燈片 16 至 20，以了解這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性 GAAP 指標的調節表。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to your host, Curt Myers.

現在我想把電話轉給主持人科特·邁爾斯。

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll provide a summary comments on our company, including comments on our financial results, our growth and an overview of the credit environment. Then Mark will share more details on the financial results and step through our outlook for the remainder of 2023. After our prepared remarks, we'll be happy to take any questions you may have.

謝謝馬特，大家早安。今天，我將提供我們公司的總結評論，包括對我們的財務表現、我們的成長的評論以及對信貸環境的概述。然後，馬克將分享有關財務業績的更多詳細信息，並逐步闡述我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的展望。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將很樂意回答您可能提出的任何問題。

We were pleased with our third quarter results. Operating earnings of $0.43 per share were solid. We saw deposit and loan growth. Our net interest margin was stable, and we maintained solid asset quality. Our pre-provision net revenue was down 4% as fee income on an operating basis was down linked quarter. We generated strong results in Wealth Management that helped offset a decline in capital markets income this quarter.

我們對第三季的業績感到滿意。每股 0.43 美元的營運收益十分穩健。我們看到存款和貸款成長。淨利差穩定，資產品質保持良好。由於營運費用收入下降，我們的預撥備淨收入下降了 4%。我們在財富管理領域取得了強勁的業績，幫助抵消了本季資本市場收入的下降。

Operating expenses were higher during the quarter, largely driven by additional technology expense as well as higher salaries and benefits expense. Our core operating expenses are expected to decline in the fourth quarter from the third quarter levels. We are focused on our current level of core operating expenses and are committed to realizing the full benefit of recent technology investments, continuing to generate smart growth and obtaining staffing efficiencies to drive core operating expenses to average assets down in future periods.

本季營運費用較高，主要是由於額外的技術費用以及較高的薪資和福利費用。我們的核心營運支出預計第四季將比第三季的水平有所下降。我們專注於目前的核心營運支出水平，並致力於實現近期技術投資的全部效益，繼續實現智慧成長並提高人員配置效率，以推動核心營運支出在未來期間降低平均資產。

In addition to our solid operating results, we repurchased 2.2 million shares in the third quarter and continue to monitor deployment -- capital deployment opportunities. As of September 30, $29 million remains from our $100 million 2023 repurchase authorization.

除了穩健的經營業績外，我們還在第三季回購了 220 萬股股票，並繼續監控部署——資本部署機會。截至 9 月 30 日，我們 2023 年 1 億美元的回購授權還剩 2,900 萬美元。

Turning to growth. Total loan growth moderated this quarter, growing $133 million or 2.5% annualized. These results were in line with our expectations as communicated in prior quarters. Commercial loans experienced modest growth and a mix shift occurred as commercial mortgage loans moved from construction to permanent status. Consumer loan growth was driven by residential mortgages. However, that growth continues to moderate as expected. Overall, we are focused on originating loans at the appropriate risk-adjusted spreads and acknowledge the impacts of a higher for longer interest rate environment and current economic conditions may have on this loan growth.

轉向增長。本季總貸款成長放緩，成長 1.33 億美元，年化成長 2.5%。這些結果符合我們在前幾季傳達的預期。商業貸款經歷了溫和的增長，並且隨著商業抵押貸款從建設狀態轉變為永久狀態，出現了混合轉變。消費貸款的成長是由住宅抵押貸款推動的。然而，這一增長仍如預期放緩。總體而言，我們專注於以適當的風險調整利差發放貸款，並承認長期較高的利率環境和當前經濟狀況可能對貸款成長產生影響。

Deposit growth outpaced loan growth and was [$215 million] for the quarter. This was driven by seasonal inflows of municipal deposits of $270 million. As a result, our loan-to-deposit ratio benefited declining from declining to 98.9%, this remains well within our long-term target range of 95% to 105%.

本季存款成長超過貸款成長，達到 [2.15 億美元]。這是由 2.7 億美元市政存款季節性流入所推動的。因此，我們的貸存比率從下降至 98.9%，這仍然在我們 95% 至 105% 的長期目標範圍內。

We continue to invest in long-term organic growth. During the quarter, we opened 1 new financial center in Philadelphia, in addition, we have financial centers targeted to open in the Philadelphia, Richmond and the Wilmington MSAs in the fourth quarter. We also recently opened a loan production office in Norfolk, Virginia in order to further accelerate growth in that market.

我們持續投資於長期有機成長。本季度，我們在費城開設了 1 個新的金融中心，此外，我們計劃在第四季度在費城、里士滿和威爾明頓 MSA 開設金融中心。我們最近也在維吉尼亞州諾福克開設了貸款製作辦事處，以進一步加速該市場的成長。

Turning to credit quality. Our credit quality metrics remained stable. Net charge-offs were $5 million or 10 basis points annualized. Credit size and class loans declined, nonperforming assets declined and delinquencies remained historically low. We have again provided detail on our loan portfolio and specifically on office portfolio on Slides 4 and 5. I'd like to note our overall concentration in commercial real estate is approximately 185% of total capital well below our proxy peer average.

轉向信用品質。我們的信用品質指標保持穩定。淨沖銷額為 500 萬美元或年化 10 個基點。信貸規模和類別貸款下降，不良資產下降，拖欠率仍處於歷史低點。我們再次在投影片4 和5 上提供了有關我們的貸款投資組合，特別是辦公大樓投資組合的詳細資訊。我想指出的是，我們對商業房地產的總體集中度約為總資本的185%，遠低於我們代理同行的平均水準。

Overall, we remain pleased with our credit metrics. However, we acknowledge the market trends and their potential impacts on credit quality.

總體而言，我們對我們的信用指標仍然感到滿意。然而，我們承認市場趨勢及其對信貸品質的潛在影響。

Now I'll turn the call over to Mark to discuss the details of our third quarter financial performance and our 2023 outlook in a little more detail.

現在我將把電話轉給 Mark，更詳細地討論我們第三季財務表現的細節和 2023 年的前景。

Thanks, Curt, and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call this morning. Unless I knew it otherwise, the quarterly comparisons I will discuss are with the second quarter of '23. And the loan and deposit growth numbers I'll be referencing are annualized percentages on a linked quarter basis.

謝謝柯特，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。除非我另有所知，否則我將討論的季度比較是與 2023 年第二季的比較。我將引用的貸款和存款成長數字是按相關季度計算的年化百分比。

Starting on Slide 6. As Curt noted, operating earnings per diluted share this quarter was $0.43 on operating net income available to common shareholders of $72.2 million. This compares to $0.47 of operating EPS in the second quarter of 2023.

從幻燈片 6 開始。正如 Curt 指出的，本季攤薄後每股營業收益為 0.43 美元，普通股股東可獲得的營業淨利潤為 7,220 萬美元。相比之下，2023 年第二季的營運每股收益為 0.47 美元。

Moving to the balance sheet. As we anticipated, loan growth slowed in the third quarter to $133 million, or 2.5% annualized. On the commercial side, growth moderated to $47 million or 1.4% and was a mix of certain categories offsetting others during the quarter. Consumer loan growth also moderated to $86 million or 4.7% during the quarter. While mortgage lending remained the majority of our consumer loan increase, the third quarter growth rate slowed considerably from prior quarters due to higher loan pricing and overall demand.

轉向資產負債表。正如我們預期的那樣，第三季貸款成長放緩至 1.33 億美元，年化成長率為 2.5%。在商業方面，成長放緩至 4,700 萬美元，即 1.4%，且本季某些類別相互抵消。本季消費貸款成長也放緩至 8,600 萬美元，成長 4.7%。雖然抵押貸款仍然是我們消費貸款成長的主要部分，但由於貸款定價和整體需求上升，第三季成長率較前幾季大幅放緩。

We have raised new loan rates across the board with most new loan yields falling between 7% and 8.5% depending on product and borrower-specific criteria. Total deposits grew $215 million during the quarter. Interest-bearing deposits grew $506 million or approximately 13% with seasonal growth in our municipal deposit portfolio contributing $270 million of that total. This growth was offset by a decline in our noninterest-bearing DDA accounts.

我們全面提高了新貸款利率，大多數新貸款收益率根據產品和借款人的特定標準下降在 7% 至 8.5% 之間。本季存款總額增加了 2.15 億美元。有息存款增加了 5.06 億美元，增幅約為 13%，其中市政存款組合的季節性成長貢獻了 2.7 億美元。這一增長被我們的無息 DDA 帳戶的減少所抵消。

Noninterest-bearing balances declined $290 million during the period, which was down from $538 million decline in the second quarter and a $603 million decline back in the first quarter. This moderation in the mix shift from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits was slightly better than our expectations and helped increase our NII guidance that I will provide at the end of my comments.

在此期間，無息餘額減少了 2.9 億美元，低於第二季的 5.38 億美元的下降量和第一季的 6.03 億美元的下降量。從無利息存款到有息存款的組合轉變的這種放緩略好於我們的預期，並有助於提高我將在評論末尾提供的NII指導。

As Curt mentioned, our loan-to-deposit ratio ended the quarter at 98.9%, down from 99.2% at the end of last quarter. We had no net broker deposit purchases during the quarter and that component of our funding remains low at only 4% of total deposits.

正如 Curt 所提到的，本季末我們的貸存比率為 98.9%，低於上季末的 99.2%。本季我們沒有淨購買經紀商存款，我們的資金部分仍然很低，僅佔總存款的 4%。

Moving to Slide 7. Last quarter, we shared with you this 33-year history of our noninterest-bearing deposit percentage. We believe we should end the year between 23% and 24% noninterest-bearing deposits, down from 27.7% at June 30 and 26% at September 30. This estimate assumes that we'll have an additional deposit shift of approximately $350 million to $400 million of interest-bearing deposits during the fourth quarter of 2023.

轉到幻燈片 7。上個季度，我們與您分享了我們 33 年的無息存款百分比歷史。我們認為，年底時無息存款應在23% 至24% 之間，低於6 月30 日的27.7% 和9 月30 日的26%。這一估計假設我們將有約3.5 億美元至400 美元的額外存款轉移2023 年第四季有息存款 100 萬元。

Our investment portfolio declined approximately $200 million during the quarter, closing at $3.7 billion. Going forward, we expect our investment portfolio to migrate upward as market conditions dictate, ultimately equaling about 15% of our balance sheet.

我們的投資組合在本季減少了約 2 億美元，最終降至 37 億美元。展望未來，我們預期我們的投資組合將根據市場狀況向上遷移，最終相當於我們資產負債表的 15% 左右。

Putting together those balance sheet trends on Slide 8, net interest income was $214 million, a $1 million increase linked quarter. Our net interest margin for the third quarter was 3.40%, consistent with 3.4% in the second quarter. Our loan yields expanded 20 basis points during the period, increasing to 5.72% versus 5.52% last quarter. Cycle-to-date, our loan beta has been 46%. Our total cost of deposits increased 24 basis points to 1.56% during the quarter. Cycle-to-date, our total deposit beta has been 29%.

將投影片 8 上的資產負債表趨勢匯總起來，淨利息收入為 2.14 億美元，比季增加 100 萬美元。我們第三季的淨利差為 3.40%，與第二季的 3.4% 一致。在此期間，我們的貸款收益率上升了 20 個基點，從上季度的 5.52% 增加到 5.72%。迄今為止，我們的貸款貝塔值為 46%。本季我們的總存款成本增加了 24 個基點，達到 1.56%。到目前為止，我們的總存款貝塔值為 29%。

Turning to credit quality on Slide 9. Our nonperforming loans decreased $6.3 million during the quarter, which led to our NPL loans ratio decreasing to 67 basis points at September 30 versus 70 basis points at June 30. Loan delinquency remains historically low at 1.12% at September 30 versus 1.05% last quarter. Our allowance for credit loss as a percent of loans increased from 1.37% of loans at June 30 to 1.38% at quarter end.

轉向幻燈片9 上的信貸品質。本季我們的不良貸款減少了630 萬美元，這導致我們的不良貸款率從6 月30 日的70 個基點降至9 月30 日的67 個基點。貸款拖欠率仍處於歷史低位，為 1.12%。9 月 30 日，上季為 1.05%。我們的信用損失準備金佔貸款的百分比從6月30日的1.37%增加到季末的1.38%。

Turning to noninterest income on Slide 10. Our wealth management revenues were $19.4 million, up from $18.7 million for the second quarter. We continue to invest in our wealth business, and it now represents about 1/3 of our fee-based revenues. The market value of assets under management and administration declined $17 million during the quarter to close at $14.2 billion.

轉向幻燈片 10 上的非利息收入。我們的財富管理收入為 1,940 萬美元，高於第二季的 1,870 萬美元。我們持續投資財富業務，目前該業務約占我們收費收入的 1/3。本季管理和管理資產的市值下降 1,700 萬美元，收於 142 億美元。

Commercial banking fees declined to $19.7 million during the quarter. Reduced loan originations, tempered capital markets revenue in our customer swaps business coming off of a very strong second quarter. Other categories within commercial fees were solid as both merchant and card revenues have exceeded our expectations year-to-date.

本季商業銀行費用下降至 1,970 萬美元。貸款發放減少，我們的客戶掉期業務的資本市場收入在第二季度非常強勁的基礎上受到抑制。商業費用中的其他類別表現穩定，因為商家和卡片的收入今年迄今都超出了我們的預期。

During the quarter, we recorded a charge of $3 million in other fee income related to our final transition from LIBOR to SOFR. In order to minimize customer disruption and rewriting certain loan and swap contracts, this resulted in a valuation difference that must be recorded this quarter. This unrealized accounting loss will be recouped over the expected life of the underlying swap contracts.

在本季度，我們記錄了 300 萬美元的其他費用收入，這些費用與我們最終從 LIBOR 過渡到 SOFR 有關。為了最大限度地減少客戶幹擾並重寫某些貸款和掉期合同，這導致了必須在本季度記錄的估值差異。此未實現的會計損失將在基礎掉期合約的預期期限內得到補償。

Consumer Banking fees were up modestly for the quarter, with pickups in credit card revenues and overdraft fees. Mortgage banking revenues picked up linked quarter as an increase in volume offset a slight decrease in gain on sale spreads in the third quarter. Application volumes, however, were down 6% year-over-year as rate increases and low housing inventories influenced applications, originations and overall loan sale volumes.

本季消費者銀行費用小幅上漲，信用卡收入和透支費用增加。由於交易量的增加抵消了第三季銷售利差收益的小幅下降，抵押貸款銀行收入較上季成長。然而，由於利率上漲和低房屋庫存影響了申請、發放和整體貸款銷售量，申請量比去年同期下降了 6%。

Moving to Slide 11. Noninterest expenses were $171 million in the third quarter, a $3 million increase from the second quarter. The following items contributed to this increase, higher base salary expense, due to one additional calendar day in the quarter and higher outside services costs associated with certain technology initiatives.

轉向投影片 11。第三季非利息支出為 1.71 億美元，比第二季增加 300 萬美元。以下項目導致了這一增長：由於本季度增加了一個日曆日，導致基本工資支出增加，以及與某些技術計劃相關的外部服務成本增加。

On Slides 12 and 13, we are continuing to provide you with expanded metrics on capital and liquidity. First, on Slide 12, as of September 30, we maintained solid cushions over the regulatory minimums for all of our regulatory capital ratios. We've also provided you with an alternative view of our regulatory ratios, including the impact of accumulated other comprehensive income. Our tangible common equity ratio was 6.8% at quarter end, down from the prior quarter due to higher long-term interest rates and the related impact on OCI. Included in tangible common equity is the accumulated other comprehensive loss on the available-for-sale portion of our investment portfolio in derivatives. This totaled $374 million after tax on a total AFS portfolio of $2.9 billion.

在投影片 12 和 13 中，我們將繼續為您提供有關資本和流動性的擴展指標。首先，在投影片 12 上，截至 9 月 30 日，我們對所有監管資本比率的最低監管水準保持了堅實的緩衝。我們也為您提供了監管比率的另一種觀點，包括累積其他綜合收入的影響。由於長期利率上升以及對 OCI 的相關影響，季末我們的有形普通股比率為 6.8%，低於上一季。有形普通股中包括我們衍生性商品投資組合中可供出售部分的累計其他綜合損失。 AFS 投資組合總額為 29 億美元，稅後總額為 3.74 億美元。

On Slide 13, including the loss on our held-to-maturity investments, which is $203 million after tax on an HTM portfolio of $1.3 billion, our tangible common equity ratio would be 6.2% at September 30, still representing over $1.6 billion in tangible capital.

在投影片13 中，包括我們持有至到期投資的損失，即13 億美元HTM 投資組合的稅後2.03 億美元，截至9 月30 日，我們的有形普通股比率將為6.2%，仍然代表超過16 億美元的有形資產。首都。

On Slide 14, we provided you with a comprehensive look at our liquidity profile. We're combining cash committed and available FHLB capacity, the Fed discount window and unencumbered securities available to pledge under the Fed's bank term funding program, our committed liquidity is $8.7 billion at September 30. In addition, we maintain over $2.5 billion in Fed fund lines with other institutions.

在投影片 14 中，我們向您全面介紹了我們的流動性狀況。我們將承諾的現金和可用的FHLB 能力、聯準會貼現窗口以及根據聯準會定期融資計劃可質押的無負擔證券相結合，截至9 月30 日，我們承諾的流動性為87 億美元。此外，我們還維持超過25 億美元的聯邦基金與其他機構的關係。

On Slide 15, we are providing our updated guidance for the remainder of 2023. Our guidance now assumes a final 25 basis point Fed funds increase at their November meeting. Based on this rate outlook, our 2023 guidance is as follows: we expect our net interest income on a non-FTE basis to be in the range of 855 -- sorry, $845 million to $855 million. We expect our provision for credit losses to be in the range of $55 million to $65 million. We expect our core noninterest income, excluding securities gains, to be in the range of $220 million to $230 million but we are trending to the higher end of this range. And we expect our core noninterest expenses to be $665 million, plus or minus, for the year. And lastly, we expect our effective tax rate to be in the range of 17.5%, plus or minus for the year.

在投影片 15 中，我們提供了 2023 年剩餘時間的最新指引。我們的指引現在假設聯邦基金在 11 月會議上最終升息 25 個基點。根據這項利率展望，我們的 2023 年指引如下：我們預計非 FTE 基礎上的淨利息收入將在 855 範圍內——抱歉，是 8.45 億美元至 8.55 億美元。我們預計信用損失撥備將在 5,500 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元之間。我們預計我們的核心非利息收入（不包括證券收益）將在 2.2 億至 2.3 億美元之間，但我們正趨向於該範圍的高端。我們預計今年核心非利息支出為 6.65 億美元（上下）。最後，我們預計今年的有效稅率將在 17.5% 左右。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to the operator for your questions. Michelle?

現在，我將把電話轉給接線員詢問您的問題。米歇爾？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Daniel Tamayo with Raymond. Daniel, can you hear us?

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Daniel Tamayo 和 Raymond。丹尼爾，你聽得到我們說話嗎？

The next question will come from Chris McGratty with KBW.

下一個問題將由 KBW 的 Chris McGratty 提出。

Curt, maybe starting with you on capital. You talked about the slowing of the balance sheet, which is reflective in (inaudible) trends but you tipped at the buyback. How do we think about, I guess, finishing it, additional buybacks, other uses of capital given the -- I would say, still uncertain economic environment.

簡短地說，也許從你的資本開始。您談到了資產負債表的放緩，這反映了（聽不清楚）趨勢，但您暗示了回購。我想，考慮到仍然不確定的經濟環境，我們如何考慮完成它、額外的回購、資本的其他用途。

Yes. So our capital strategy remains the same. We're going to support organic growth as we look in the fourth quarter here first, and then we would look at all, other alternatives like buybacks. We do have $29 million remaining in that authorization. And we're active in the -- in the third quarter, we make those determinations based on pricing and capital use.

是的。所以我們的資本策略保持不變。我們將支持有機成長，因為我們首先關注第四季度，然後我們將考慮其他替代方案，例如回購。該授權中我們確實還剩下 2900 萬美元。我們在第三季積極​​開展工作，我們根據定價和資本使用做出這些決定。

And then maybe 2 follow-ups. Mark, I think you said you have a November hike in the guide. I think the market is kind of 50-50 if we get it. Can you just remind us what each 25 is? I think you provided it on a on a monthly basis in the past?

然後可能還有 2 個後續行動。馬克，我想你在指南中說過你有 11 月的徒步旅行。我認為如果我們得到它，市場是 50-50。您能提醒我們每個 25 是什麼嗎？我認為您過去是按月提供的？

Yes. Yes, I would say that if we don't get that, you have just under $9 billion of variable rate loans that would reprice. So if you don't get that benefit, that number ends up being a little bit north of $20 million annually, so a little bit under $2 million a month. But then obviously, the wildcard question is what if we don't get that? Does that change your glide upward in the deposit costs? So there'll be some offset to that.

是的。是的，我想說的是，如果我們不明白這一點，就有將近 90 億美元的可變利率貸款需要重新定價。因此，如果您沒有獲得這項福利，這個數字最終會超過每年 2000 萬美元，每月略低於 200 萬美元。但顯然，通配符問題是如果我們不明白怎麼辦？這是否會改變您存款成本的上升趨勢？所以會有一些抵消。

And then maybe my last, there was a report overnight about Interchange making its way through regulation again. Can you just remind us, obviously, you're above $10 billion, but just what the potential -- or remind us what the impact was previously and how much might be at risk if we get more regulation?

然後也許是我的最後一次，隔夜有一份關於 Interchange 再次通過監管的報告。顯然，您能否提醒我們，您的資金超過 100 億美元，但潛力是什麼？或提醒我們先前的影響是什麼，如果我們加強監管，可能會面臨多少風險？

Yes, Chris, we really didn't look at the numbers yet because we don't know what will happen. I mean we have the sensitivity on it. We are in it. So we benefit and have cost offsets with that as well. So we have to model on both sides of that, depending on what plays out from a legislative standpoint or from a market standpoint, pricing with customers. So we do benefit in some regards, and then we would have an offset. It was a net reduction for us previously when Durbin was put in place originally but not a material reduction for us at that time.

是的，克里斯，我們確實還沒有查看這些數字，因為我們不知道會發生什麼。我的意思是我們對此很敏感。我們就在其中。因此，我們從中受益並抵消了成本。因此，我們必須在這兩個方面進行建模，這取決於從立法角度或從市場角度來看，與客戶定價。所以我們確實在某些方面受益，然後我們就會有一個抵銷。以前杜賓最初到位時，對我們來說是淨減少，但當時對我們來說並不是實質減少。

Our next question comes from Feddie Strickland with Janney Montgomery.

我們的下一個問題來自費迪·斯特里克蘭和詹尼·蒙哥馬利。

Just wonder if you can talk about upcoming maturities in the loan portfolio over the next couple of quarters in ballpark, what's the rate on those -- on average as they come off as they mature versus renewal?

只是想知道您是否可以大致討論未來幾季貸款組合即將到期的情況，這些利率是多少——到期時與續約時的平均利率是多少？

Yes, I would say on ones that are maturing, I mean, again, it's going to be a pretty wide swath steady depending on the category. But I mean, it could be -- as I mentioned, our new loan anywhere from 7% to 8.5% that we're putting on right now, maturities are coming off anywhere from sort of that 5.5% to 7% range depending on loan category.

是的，我想說的是，對於那些正在成熟的產品，我的意思是，根據類別，這將是一個相當廣泛的穩定範圍。但我的意思是，正如我所提到的，我們現在發放的新貸款利率從 7% 到 8.5% 不等，到期日可能會從 5.5% 到 7% 不等，具體取決於貸款的情況類別。

Got it. And then can you remind us of the timing of when those public funds flow back out and what the rate was on those? Because I'm assuming when they flow back out at some point in 2024, the margin benefits a little bit is -- those are generally higher rate, right?

知道了。那麼您能否提醒我們這些公共資金回流的時間以及回流的利率是多少？因為我假設當它們在 2024 年某個時候回流時，利潤率會有所提高——這些利率通常較高，對嗎？

They are lower than our marginal cost of borrowings. Obviously, like right now, because I mean in our municipal business, I mean, we do have a lot of the core operating accounts for those municipalities. Over the last year, with the increase in rates, the overall yield on that portfolio has crept up to where it's a little bit under 2% today, about 1.9%. And our normal cyclicality there, what we've seen in the last 2 years has been a consistent around like that 300-ish like we saw this past quarter, increase in the third quarter. And then in the fourth quarter, you tend to see a similar amount in the last 2 years. Three years ago, it used to be a little more, but right now, it's more about $200 million to $300 million of outflows.

它們低於我們的邊際借貸成本。顯然，就像現在一樣，因為我的意思是在我們的市政業務中，我的意思是，我們確實為這些市政當局擁有許多核心營運帳戶。去年，隨著利率的上升，該投資組合的整體收益率已攀升至略低於 2% 的水平，約為 1.9%。我們在過去兩年中看到的正常週期性一直在 300 左右，就像我們在上個季度看到的那樣，第三季度有所增長。然後在第四季度，您往往會看到過去兩年的類似金額。三年前，流出量還多一點，但現在，流出量約為 2 億至 3 億美元。

Got you. Just one last one for me. We've seen steady growth in wealth fees for, I think, 3 quarters now. Do you feel like that trajectory could continue? Or do we see a bit of a pullback in future quarters?

明白你了。給我的只是最後一張。我認為，我們已經看到財富費用穩定成長了三個季度。您認為這種軌跡可以繼續嗎？或者我們會在未來幾季看到一些回落嗎？

We consistently grow that business. It is market sensitive in some of the products but it's a recurring fee business, and we grow the underlying assets under management. So while it will ebb and flow with the market, those changes should be muted. And if you look at the long-term trends in growth in wealth, we expect those to continue.

我們不斷發展該業務。某些產品對市場敏感，但這是一項經常性費用業務，我們會增加管理下的基礎資產。因此，儘管它會隨著市場的起伏而變化，但這些變化應該是溫和的。如果你看看財富成長的長期趨勢，我們預期這種趨勢將持續下去。

The next question comes from David Bishop with Hovde Group.

下一個問題來自 Hovde Group 的 David Bishop。

I appreciate the commentary with regard to the percent of capital allocated to commercial real estate. I think you said 185%. Clearly, in the Northeast, a lot of your peers are bumping up against that 300% threshold, some are well above that. Do you see that -- does that give you any opportunity here in the near to intermediate term to maybe take market share? Are you seeing some of the competitors migrate out good credits that you guys could all stop up here with some excess capacity?

我很欣賞關於分配給商業房地產的資本百分比的評論。我想你說的是185%。顯然，在東北地區，許多同行都在突破 300% 的門檻，有些甚至遠高於這個門檻。您是否看到了這一點——這是否為您帶來了在中短期內獲得市場份額的機會？您是否看到一些競爭對手遷移出了良好的信用，而您都可以用一些過剩的產能停在這裡？

Yes. We are being very strategic about that. It does create opportunities for us. We've kept our commercial real estate team intact, and we are getting opportunities that may not have been available to us. We are being disciplined around credit and pricing and it's an opportunity for us from a high-quality customer standpoint, but also to get the pricing credit parameters that that we need in this environment. So it is an opportunity for us, and that's how we're looking at it.

是的。我們對此非常具有戰略意義。它確實為我們創造了機會。我們保持了商業房地產團隊的完整，我們正在獲得我們可能無法獲得的機會。我們在信用和定價方面受到嚴格約束，從高品質客戶的角度來看，這對我們來說是一個機會，而且還可以獲得我們在這種環境下所需的定價信用參數。所以這對我們來說是一個機會，我們也是這麼看待它的。

Got it. And then within the -- I appreciate the disclosures regarding (inaudible) Central business district exposure. Any sort of inter-quarter weakness there or any update in terms of what you're seeing in terms of credit trends within that portfolio?

知道了。然後，我很欣賞有關（聽不清楚）中央商務區風險的揭露。是否有任何季度間的弱點，或者您在該投資組合中看到的信貸趨勢方面有任何更新嗎？

Yes. The portfolio has been pretty stable. We're closely monitoring that portfolio. And you can see from the disclosures that the metrics are pretty consistent. Office continues to have stress. We're working with making sure we understand borrowers understand the outlook as we move forward. But really not any material changes quarter-to-quarter, but we continue to monitor the macroeconomic environment for office. It is a challenged overall environment.

是的。投資組合一直相當穩定。我們正在密切關注該投資組合。從揭露的資訊中可以看出，這些指標非常一致。辦公室繼續面臨壓力。我們正在努力確保我們了解借款人並了解我們前進的前景。但季度與季度之間確實沒有任何重大變化，但我們繼續監測辦公室的宏觀經濟環境。這是一個充滿挑戰的整體環境。

Got it. And then maybe just one more last question here. In terms of the impact from the SOFR to LIBOR transition, I think you said you're going to accrete that back into other income over time. Just curious maybe what sort of Mark maybe a good run rate for that other income line on a go-forward basis?

知道了。也許還有最後一個問題。就 SOFR 到 LIBOR 過渡的影響而言，我認為您說過您將隨著時間的推移將其重新計入其他收入。只是好奇，在未來的基礎上，對於其他收入線來說，什麼樣的馬克可能是個好的運行率？

Yes. So that's going to creep back in actually in NII over time, and that will be approximately 5 years.

是的。因此，隨著時間的推移，這實際上會在 NII 中重新出現，大約需要 5 年。

The next question comes from Manuel Navas with D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自曼努埃爾·納瓦斯和 D.A.戴維森。

Thoughts on that -- I just wanted to have some updated thoughts on the NIM direction from here. Also thoughts on the brokered deposits. Like when do you have to kind of seek to replace them? It looks like the CD engine is working quite well. Just kind of some updates on those areas.

對此的想法——我只是想從這裡獲得一些關於 NIM 方向的最新想法。還有經紀存款的想法。例如你什麼時候必須尋求替代它們？看起來 CD 引擎運作得很好。只是這些領域的一些更新。

Yes. We think that we're going to continue to see our margin drift down. We were pleased that we held constant from 2Q to 3Q. I think last quarter, we had told folks at the time that we -- our margin was 3.40 for the quarter and ended the quarter at that same number. In the month of September, our margin was 3.38, so to give you an idea that we will expect to see -- and again, with some of those public funds outflows and replacing some of that with some higher cost borrowings in the fourth quarter, I'd see that number drift down a little bit.

是的。我們認為我們的利潤率將繼續下降。我們很高興我們從第二季到第三季保持穩定。我想上個季度，我們告訴當時的人們，我們本季的利潤率為 3.40，本季結束時也是這個數字。 9 月份，我們的利潤率為 3.38，所以為了讓您了解我們預計會看到的情況，再次，隨著其中一些公共資金流出，並在第四季度用一些成本更高的借款取代其中一些，我會看到這個數字略有下降。

We expect at this point to see the margin bottom out sometime in the middle of 2024 and then I think back to your question around CDs, yes, we've been -- we do feel our CD engine is pretty strong. And the other reason to comment on when margin will bottom out, is in the middle of 2024 is really where we see our CDs that are rolling off and replacing that, that differential in rate becomes much narrower to today's market rate as like in the fourth quarter, we still have about $300 million of CDs maturing at about a 2% rate, whereas by the middle of next year, you have $600 million of CDs, but they're maturing at a [420] rate. So your replacement rate becomes much narrower, which will then help to slow down that margin impression as well.

我們預計利潤率將在 2024 年中期的某個時候觸底，然後我回想一下您關於 CD 的問題，是的，我們確實認為我們的 CD 引擎非常強大。評論利潤率何時觸底的另一個原因是，到2024 年中期，我們確實會看到我們的CD 正在滾動並取代它，利率差異與今天的市場利率相比變得更窄，就像第四季度那樣到了第二季度，我們仍有約3 億美元的CD 以約2% 的利率到期，而到明年年中，你將有6 億美元的CD，但它們正以[420] 的利率到期。因此，您的替代率會變得更窄，這也將有助於減緩利潤印象。

Is the -- I appreciate that. Is the expectation is that we kind of drift up on the loan-to-deposit ratio to the higher end of your range over the next couple of quarters?

是——我很欣賞這一點。是否預期我們的貸存比率會在接下來的幾季上升至您範圍的高端？

We're working hard at balanced growth. Quarter-to-quarter, it's going to ebb and flow within that range, but we don't see a steady increase to the top end of that range. But quarter-to-quarter, it may move up and down as we have different strategies within each quarter.

我們正在努力實現平衡成長。每個季度，它都會在這個範圍內波動，但我們沒有看到穩定增長到該範圍的上限。但從季度到季度，它可能會上下波動，因為我們每個季度都有不同的策略。

Okay. You brought up that in the past, you've seen a lot of new account openings. Is a lot of the deposit flows ex the public funds coming from your new accounts? Or are you getting from your current account base your getting CDs? Can you kind of just talk through that a bit?

好的。您過去提到過，您看到了很多新帳戶的開設。除公共資金外的大量存款流量是否來自您的新帳戶？或者您是從當前帳戶基礎中獲得 CD 嗎？能簡單談談嗎？

Yes. So we're working on both. So we are adding customers and are focused on deposit customers. The customers overall and we are working hard at cross-sell on existing customers to bringing in monies that may be at other institutions, and we're their primary relationship, but we don't have all of the relationship, we're a hyper focused on that share of wallet for current customers to bring in deposits that way and loans.

是的。所以我們正在這兩方面努力。所以我們正在增加客戶，並專注於存款客戶。總體而言，我們的客戶和我們正在努力對現有客戶進行交叉銷售，以帶來可能來自其他機構的資金，我們是他們的主要關係，但我們沒有所有的關係，我們是一個超級客戶專注於現有客戶以這種方式吸收存款和貸款的錢包份額。

And my last question is on expenses. You're bringing them down a little bit in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk about some of the corporate initiatives you called out in the release and what kind of drove that line to be a little bit higher? And -- is that going to be a little bit elevated into next year? Just some thoughts on that end of the spectrum.

我的最後一個問題是關於費用的。你在第四季讓他們的表現有所下降。您能否談談您在新聞稿中提出的一些企業舉措以及是什麼推動了該線更高一點？而且──明年這個數字會上升嗎？只是對這一範圍的一些想法。

Yes. We're really focused on core operating expenses. We said that expenses will come down in the fourth quarter. We're confident in that. We are also looking broadly in this environment, how we strategically manage expenses effectively. So we'll be messaging kind of each quarter, not only results, but what we're looking at as we move forward, getting that technology, benefit realization and staffing efficiency with smart growth is really how we're looking at all of those things, but we are very focused on bringing down core operating expenses.

是的。我們真正關注的是核心營運支出。我們說過第四季費用會下降。我們對此充滿信心。我們也在這種環境下廣泛關注如何有效地策略性地管理費用。因此，我們每個季度都會發布訊息，不僅是結果，而且是我們在前進過程中所關注的內容，透過智慧成長獲得技術、效益實現和員工效率，這實際上是我們看待所有這些的方式的事情，但我們非常注重降低核心營運費用。

The next question comes from Matthew Breese with Stephens.

下一個問題來自馬修·布里斯和史蒂芬斯。

Just following that line of question, you had mentioned a lower overall NIE to asset ratio. Could you just give us some idea of where you'd like to see that ratio trend next year or over time?

就在這個問題之後，您提到了較低的總體NIE與資產比率。您能否告訴我們您希望明年或一段時間內的比率趨勢如何？

Yes. We're really focused on it. We don't have a target that we're public with at this point, but we're really focused on bringing that down over time. Just with the outlook that we have around maybe a little slower growth, margins more challenged from where we were in the last couple of quarters, really focused on bringing that true expense level down. And we're going to be able to incrementally move that over time.

是的。我們真的很專注。目前我們還沒有公開的目標，但我們確實致力於隨著時間的推移降低這一目標。考慮到我們的成長可能會稍微放緩，利潤率比過去幾季面臨的挑戰更大，我們真正專注於降低真實的費用水平。隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠逐步推進這一點。

Okay. So maybe to put a broader point on it, the goal is to bring the absolute level of expenses down from where they are currently versus a lot of expense initiatives where are really utilized to temper growth from the current level. Is that how we should be thinking about it?

好的。因此，也許從更廣泛的角度來看，我們的目標是將支出的絕對水平從目前的水平降低，而不是真正用來抑制當前水平增長的許多支出計劃。我們該這樣思考嗎？

Well, we're focused on both. So we do want to look at just core expense levels, but it is a combination of smart growth as well. So it depends on our growth opportunities and opportunities in the marketplace on how we'll be looking at the balance of those 2 things in -- as we move forward. So we have items like our corporate real estate expense, we will bring that expense down. Other areas we need to look at revenue opportunity relative to expense opportunities. So we're doing both things.

嗯，我們專注於兩者。因此，我們確實只想關注核心費用水平，但它也是明智增長的結合。因此，這取決於我們的成長機會和市場機會，以及我們在前進過程中如何平衡這兩件事。因此，我們有公司房地產費用等項目，我們將降低該費用。在其他領域，我們需要考慮相對於支出機會的收入機會。所以我們正在做這兩件事。

Okay. And then maybe going back to the NII guide, which suggests in the fourth quarter, there's a pretty decent step down in terms of quarterly NII. Obviously, that's short term. As we think about 2024, do you expect that trend of NII being down on a quarterly basis to kind of sync up with your NIM outlook, which stabilizes in, call it, mid-2024? Is that a decent way to think about this?

好的。然後也許回到 NII 指南，該指南表明在第四季度，季度 NII 出現了相當大的下降。顯然，這是短期的。當我們考慮 2024 年時，您是否預期 NII 將按季度下降的趨勢與您的 NIM 前景（即 2024 年中期趨於穩定）保持同步？這是思考這個問題的好方法嗎？

Yes, I think that's fair, Matt.

是的，我認為這是公平的，馬特。

Okay. And do you have any idea where you think the NIM or NII might stabilize at that point without any additional rate movement?

好的。您認為在沒有任何額外利率變動的情況下，NIM 或 NII 可能會穩定在什麼位置？

We haven't given guidance yet for 2023. I mean I'm comfortable given that -- given that broad guidance (inaudible) for 2024. But when we come out next quarter for 2024, we'll obviously be giving guidance for the full year at that time.

我們還沒有給出2023 年的指導。我的意思是，鑑於2024 年的廣泛指導（聽不清楚），我對此感到很舒服。但是當我們下個季度發布2024 年的指導時，我們顯然會給予完整的指導當年。

Okay. With some of the better-than-expected deposit results this quarter, could you provide some updated thoughts around expectations around terminal deposit beta as we get into 2024 and perhaps at the end of this cycle?

好的。鑑於本季度的一些存款結果好於預期，當我們進入 2024 年，或許在本週期結束時，您能否提供一些關於終端存款 Beta 預期的最新想法？

Yes. We're not really moving off our prior numbers for terminal beta because, again, for our terminal beta, I mean, we view it as kind of 2 quarters after the Fed stops raising rates. So we still feel like we're going to be around that high 30s to [40] level that we had communicated in prior quarters. And hopefully, we do end up a little bit better than that. But I think our results this quarter, we still want to take a guarded look on that and understand what customer behaviors are going to be like 6 months from now. we're just not ready to move off that number yet.

是的。我們並沒有真正放棄先前的終端貝塔數據，因為對於我們的終端貝塔，我的意思是，我們認為這是聯準會停止升息後的兩個季度。因此，我們仍然認為我們將達到我們在前幾個季度溝通過的 30 到 [40] 的高水準。希望我們最終能比這更好一點。但我認為我們本季的結果仍然需要謹慎看待，並了解 6 個月後客戶的行為會是什麼樣子。我們只是還沒準備好取消這個數字。

Okay. Last one for me is, broadly speaking, it looked like credit trends were benign, very solid. We've been getting more questions around syndicated loans and portfolios. I'm just curious, what kind of exposure do you have, if any, to syndicated loans? And what is the size of that portfolio? And how has performance been?

好的。對我來說，最後一點是，從廣義上講，信貸趨勢看起來是良性的、非常穩定的。我們收到了更多有關銀團貸款和投資組合的問題。我只是好奇，如果有的話，您有什麼樣的銀團貸款風險？該投資組合的規模是多少？表現如何？

Yes, Matt, our shared national credit portfolio balance is about $325 million right now, so less than 2%. It's -- customers we know well, and performance has been steady. We don't have any metrics in that portfolio that are different than other portfolios. They are larger accounts. So when you have an item there, it's a little more visible, which I think you see, but it's a pretty limited portfolio and activity for us.

是的，馬特，我們目前共享的國家信貸組合餘額約為 3.25 億美元，所以不到 2%。這是我們熟悉的客戶，業績一直穩定。我們在該投資組合中沒有任何與其他投資組合不同的指標。它們是較大的帳戶。因此，當你在那裡有一個項目時，它會更加明顯，我想你已經看到了，但對我們來說，這是一個相當有限的投資組合和活動。

Any subindustries within it that have more of the pie than others?

其中有哪些子行業比其他行業擁有更多的蛋糕？

No, not really. It's pretty evenly split CRE and C&I. And we have 5, 6 different categories. So it's pretty diversified within the C&I categories as well.

不，不是真的。 CRE 和 C&I 的分佈相當均勻。我們有 5、6 個不同的類別。因此，它在 C&I 類別中也相當多樣化。

The next question comes from Frank Schiraldi with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Frank Schiraldi 和 Piper Sandler。

Just in terms of -- to ask the expense question another way. Any thoughts of more normalized efficiency ratio or broad efficiency ratio targets as we kind of keep a careful eye on the expense side and see where revenues flush out for next year?

就以另一種方式提出費用問題而言。當我們密切關注費用方面並看看明年的收入會從哪裡湧出時，有沒有想過更標準化的效率比或更廣泛的效率比目標？

Yes, Frank, I appreciate the question, and we're really focused on the efficiency ratio and absolute expenses around expenses to assets. We have not been public with the target. We are looking to drive them incrementally. And as we move forward in this environment, we may be in a position to put a target out there in 2024. We're just not positioned to do it right now, but we're very focused on it, and we do want to make incremental change and then potentially even more significant change as we move forward.

是的，弗蘭克，我很欣賞這個問題，我們真正關注的是效率比和資產支出的絕對支出。我們尚未公開目標。我們希望逐步推動它們。隨著我們在這種環境下前進，我們可能能夠在 2024 年制定一個目標。我們只是現在還沒有能力做到這一點，但我們非常專注於此，而且我們確實希望進行漸進式的改變，然後隨著我們的前進，可能會發生更重大的改變。

Okay. And then on noninterest-bearing balances, Mark, you talked about where you anticipate those balances ending the year as a percentage of total deposits. If we're in sort of higher for longer rate scenario, obviously, bottoms up somewhere. Do you see it kind of continuing to be a slow bleed from those levels? Or do you think it's close to bottoming out here based on the -- where rates are currently?

好的。然後，關於無息餘額，馬克，您談到了您預計年末餘額佔總存款的百分比。如果我們處於長期利率較高的情況下，顯然，會在某個地方觸底。您是否認為這些水平會繼續緩慢下降？或者你認為根據目前的利率水平，它已經接近觸底了嗎？

We're still forecasting there to be some rundown in 2024. But Frank, we anticipate that, that pace of shift will continue to decline. So maybe you're down a couple of percentage points in 2024, but certainly nothing like what we saw in 2023.

我們仍然預測 2024 年會出現一些下滑。但是弗蘭克，我們預計這種轉變的速度將繼續下降。因此，2024 年的情況可能會下降幾個百分點，但肯定不會像我們在 2023 年看到的那樣。

The next question comes from Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自丹尼爾·塔馬約和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

The next question comes from Manuel Navas with D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自曼努埃爾·納瓦斯和 D.A.戴維森。

Yes, I just wanted to hop back on to kind of ask about those new branches. Can you just talk about the regions you're kind of adding branches in? And is that like a similar cadence you might see in other quarters? And is that kind of where you're seeing the most regional opportunity?

是的，我只是想跳回去詢問這些新分公司的情況。您能談談您要在哪些地區增加分公司嗎？這是否類似於您在其他領域看到的類似節奏？這是您看到最多區域機會的地方嗎？

Yes. So right now, we have 205 financial centers. We're consistently managing that network, consolidating or reducing offices that aren't performing or can be consolidated while then investing in new locations that are strategic for us. We've been predominantly focused on the Philadelphia, Baltimore, Richmond corridor. In D.C., we opened a loan production office in the second quarter. So that kind of metro corridor is where we've been focused with most of our new financial centers. 3-in-1 quarter is just -- it's a timing thing on the development. So that's not a specific pickup in that activity. It's more just the timing of those branches all coming online at the same time. But you'll see a steady management of that network. So some closures, consolidations and some new investments.

是的。目前，我們有 205 個金融中心。我們始終如一地管理該網絡，整合或減少表現不佳或無法整合的辦事處，然後投資於對我們具有戰略意義的新地點。我們主要關注費城、巴爾的摩和里士滿走廊。在華盛頓，我們於第二季開設了貸款製作辦公室。因此，這種地鐵走廊是我們大多數新金融中心關注的重點。三合一季度只是－－這是開發的時機問題。所以這並不是該活動的具體提升。更重要的是這些分公司同時上線的時間。但您會看到該網路的穩定管理。因此，一些公司關閉、合併，並進行了一些新的投資。

I show no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Curt Myers for closing remarks.

我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。現在我想將電話轉回給科特·邁爾斯，讓其致閉幕詞。

Well, thank you again for joining us today. We hope you'll be able to be with us when we discuss the fourth quarter results in January. Thank you all.

好的，再次感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望您能夠在我們一月份討論第四季度業績時與我們在一起。謝謝你們。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。