H.B. Fuller Company (FUL) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. My name is Kate, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the H.B. Fuller Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    感謝您耐心等候。我叫 Kate,今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻,我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 H.B. Fuller 2026 會計年度第一季(Q1)財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Scott Jensen, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將電話交給投資人關係部的 Scott Jensen。請開始。

  • Scott Jensen - Head - Investor Relations

    Scott Jensen - Head - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Welcome to H.B. Fuller's First Quarter 2026 Investor Conference Call. Presenting today are Celeste Mastin, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Corkrean, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks, we will have a question-and-answer session.

    謝謝,接線員。歡迎各位參加 H.B. Fuller 2026 會計年度第一季投資人電話會議。今天出席簡報的有總裁暨執行長 Celeste Mastin,以及執行副總裁暨財務長 John Corkrean。在我們的事先準備發言之後,將進行問答環節。

  • Before we begin, let me remind everyone that our comments today will include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures are supplemental to the results determined in accordance with GAAP. We believe these measures are useful to investors in understanding our operational performance and to compare our performance with other companies. Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure are included in our earnings release. Unless otherwise noted, comments about revenue refer to organic revenue and comments about EPS, EBITDA and profit margins refer to adjusted non-GAAP measures.

    在開始之前,提醒各位,我們今天的評論將包含對某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的引用。這些指標是對依 GAAP 計算之結果的補充。我們相信,這些指標有助於投資人理解我們的營運表現,並將我們的表現與其他公司進行比較。非 GAAP 指標與最接近之 GAAP 指標的調節表已包含於我們的財報新聞稿中。除非另有說明,關於營收的評論係指有機營收;而關於 EPS、EBITDA 與利潤率的評論係指經調整之非 GAAP 指標。

  • We will also be making forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these expectations due to factors covered in our earnings release, comments made during this call and the risk factors detailed in our filings with the SEC, all of which are available on our website at investors.hbfuller.com.

    我們也將在本次電話會議中作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述係基於目前的預期與假設,並受風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能因我們財報新聞稿所涵蓋之因素、本次電話會議中的評論,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交文件中所詳述的風險因素而與上述預期有重大差異;相關資料皆可於我們網站 investors.hbfuller.com 查閱。

  • I will now turn the call over to Celeste Mastin. Celeste?

    現在我將把電話交給 Celeste Mastin。Celeste?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Scott, and welcome to today's call. In the first quarter, we delivered on our profit commitment and executed with discipline in a challenging operating environment. We continued to expand margins by leveraging our global sourcing strength and maintaining a focused approach to cost and portfolio management.

    謝謝你,Scott,也歡迎各位參加今天的電話會議。第一季,我們兌現了獲利承諾,並在充滿挑戰的營運環境中以紀律執行。我們持續運用全球採購優勢擴大利潤率,同時維持對成本與產品組合管理的聚焦策略。

  • To start today's call, we will cover our consolidated results in the first quarter. We will also spend significant time discussing the impact on supply chains, resulting from the recent events in the Middle East and the actions we are taking to successfully navigate this new operating environment. In the first quarter, organic revenue decreased 6.6% year-on-year as positive pricing was offset by lower volume.

    今天電話會議一開始,我們將先說明第一季的合併業績。我們也將花相當多時間討論近期中東事件對供應鏈造成的影響,以及我們為成功因應這個新營運環境所採取的行動。第一季有機營收年減 6.6%,正向的定價效益被較低的銷量所抵銷。

  • From a profitability perspective, EBITDA of $119 million, which was at the higher end of our guidance range increased 4% year-on-year and EBITDA margin expanded 90 basis points to 15.4%. This was primarily driven by continued restructuring savings from Quantum Leap and the positive impact from price and raw material cost actions that more than offset the impact from lower volumes.

    從獲利角度來看,EBITDA 為 1.19 億美元,位於我們指引區間的高端,年增 4%,EBITDA 利潤率擴張 90 個基點至 15.4%。這主要受 Quantum Leap 持續重整節省所帶動,以及定價與原物料成本措施的正面影響,且其效果足以抵銷銷量下降的影響。

  • Now let me move on to review the performance in each of our segments in the first quarter. EA organic revenue increased approximately 3% in the first quarter, excluding the impact of exiting the lower-margin solar business, driven by continued strength in electronics and aerospace. Organic revenue declined 2% in the first quarter, including solar. EBITDA increased 9% in EA and EBITDA margin increased 120 basis points year-on-year to 19.9%. Favorable net pricing and raw material cost actions and the benefit from restructuring drove the year-on-year margin expansion.

    接下來我將回顧第一季各事業部門的表現。EA 第一季有機營收約成長 3%(不含退出低毛利太陽能業務的影響),主要受電子與航太持續強勁所帶動。若包含太陽能,第一季有機營收下降 2%。EA 的 EBITDA 年增 9%,EBITDA 利潤率年增 120 個基點至 19.9%。有利的淨定價與原物料成本措施,以及重整效益,共同推動利潤率的年增擴張。

  • In HHC, organic revenue declined 10% year-over-year reflecting a challenging environment and a tough comparison to the first quarter of 2025 when the business delivered 4% organic growth. We saw customers maintain tighter inventory levels and consumers continue to shift away from premium products to lower-cost alternatives and smaller package sizes as they manage ongoing affordability pressures. Through disciplined cost management, EBITDA margins were 13.9%, up 120 basis points versus last year reflecting pricing and raw material cost actions as well as strong expense control.

    在 HHC,有機營收年減 10%,反映具挑戰性的環境,以及與 2025 年第一季(當時業務達成 4% 有機成長)的高基期比較。我們看到客戶維持較緊的庫存水位,消費者也在持續的負擔能力壓力下,從高端產品轉向較低成本的替代品與較小的包裝規格。透過有紀律的成本管理,EBITDA 利潤率為 13.9%,較去年提升 120 個基點,反映定價與原物料成本措施,以及強勁的費用控管。

  • In BAS, organic sales decreased 5.1% year-on-year, consistent with our expectations. The team executed well even under challenging weather conditions. EBITDA for BAS decreased 1% year-on-year, and EBITDA margins were flat as positive price and raw material actions as well as restructuring savings were offset by volume declines. Geographically, Americas organic revenue was down 4% year-on-year, declines in HHC were partially offset by EA, which achieved organic revenue growth of 8% year-on-year, driven by continued strength in the aerospace and general industries market segments.

    在 BAS,有機銷售額年減 5.1%,符合我們的預期。即使在具挑戰性的天候條件下,團隊仍執行得宜。BAS 的 EBITDA 年減 1%,EBITDA 利潤率持平;正向的定價與原物料措施以及重整節省,被銷量下滑所抵銷。就地區而言,美洲有機營收年減 4%;HHC 的下滑部分被 EA 抵銷,EA 有機營收年增 8%,主要受航太與一般工業市場區隔持續強勁所帶動。

  • In EIMEA, organic revenue decreased 11% year-on-year, primarily driven by tighter customer inventory management in HHC, a weak construction market in BAS and a tough comparison to the first quarter of 2025 when HHC revenue grew over 10%. Asia Pacific organic revenue was up 2%, excluding solar, lower than trend due to the timing of Chinese New Year. Total organic revenue decreased 6% year-on-year, including solar.

    在 EIMEA,有機營收年減 11%,主要受 HHC 客戶更嚴格的庫存管理、BAS 建築市場疲弱,以及與 2025 年第一季(當時 HHC 營收成長逾 10%)的高基期比較所影響。亞太地區有機營收(不含太陽能)成長 2%,因農曆新年時點影響而低於趨勢水準。若包含太陽能,總有機營收年減 6%。

  • Now let's turn to the developing supply chain impact resulting from the conflict in the Middle East and its implication for our business. This is a critical development for our industry. This conflict is already creating significant constraints on raw material availability with impacts that extend across feedstocks, intermediates, logistics lanes, and energy inputs. We have received over 40 force majeure letters from suppliers in recent weeks, clear evidence that this is a major disruption.

    接著我們談談中東衝突所導致、正在發展中的供應鏈影響,以及其對我們業務的意涵。這對我們產業而言是一項關鍵發展。這場衝突已在原物料可得性上造成重大限制,其影響範圍涵蓋上游原料、半成品、物流航線與能源投入。近幾週我們已收到供應商超過 40 封不可抗力(force majeure)通知函,清楚顯示這是一場重大干擾。

  • Chemical production capacity has decreased significantly and tanker routes have been disrupted and repositioned. Even if this conflict were resolved tomorrow, we would expect supply chain aftershocks to persist throughout the year as inventories rebalance, transportation and logistics normalize and plants work through restart cycles. As a result, there will likely be significant, broad-based inflationary pressure and raw material shortages.

    化學品生產產能已大幅下降,油輪航線也遭到干擾並重新部署。即便這場衝突明天就解決,我們仍預期供應鏈的後續衝擊將持續整個年度,因為庫存需要重新平衡、運輸與物流需恢復常態,且工廠必須完成重啟循環。因此,可能出現顯著且廣泛的通膨壓力與原物料短缺。

  • While the magnitude will vary by region and technology, it is clear the system is under stress and volatility will remain elevated. We are taking swift and decisive action by deploying the full scope of our global sourcing and supply assurance infrastructure. Our global sourcing organization was an industry first mover leveraging our long-established strong relationships with suppliers and strategic category management.

    雖然影響幅度會因地區與技術而異,但很明顯整個系統正承受壓力,波動性也將維持在高檔。我們正迅速且果斷地採取行動,全面動用我們的全球採購與供應保障基礎設施。我們的全球採購組織是業界的先行者,運用我們長期建立的強大供應商關係與策略性品類管理。

  • Since the conflict began, they have taken mitigating actions and securing raw materials ahead of the broader market, reallocating volumes across regions and pursuing qualified substitutes where available. These are the same capabilities that differentiated H.B. Fuller in 2021 and 2022 when we navigated unprecedented volatility and successfully supported our customers.

    自衝突爆發以來,他們已採取緩解措施,並在更廣泛市場之前先行確保原物料供應,跨區域重新分配供應量,並在可行之處尋找已通過認證的替代品。這些正是 H.B. Fuller 在 2021 與 2022 年面對前所未有的波動時脫穎而出的能力,並成功支援我們的客戶。

  • We have already taken swift pricing action to reflect the increase in raw material prices announcing a minimum 10% price increase across all product lines globally effective April 1 with significantly higher price adjustments for certain technologies and regions where cost escalation is more acute. These steps are designed to offset supply shock inflation and protect customer service levels.

    我們已迅速採取定價行動以反映原物料價格上漲,宣布自 4 月 1 日起在全球所有產品線實施至少 10% 的漲價;對於成本上升更為劇烈的特定技術與地區,將採取顯著更高的價格調整。這些措施旨在抵銷供應衝擊所帶來的通膨,並保護客戶服務水準。

  • Importantly, the adhesive industry is traditionally one where gaining market share is a function of bringing solutions for new applications. It's more difficult to take share from established business allocation given the high-performance requirements of products and the natural customer aversion to change. In current conditions, many competitors are now confronting real supply uncertainty, creating an opening for H.B. Fuller. In summary, this disruption creates a unique opportunity to support existing customers and gain market share, positioning us for improved volume growth in the future.

    重要的是,黏著劑產業傳統上取得市占率,主要取決於為新應用帶來解決方案。由於產品對高性能的要求,以及客戶天生對變更的抗拒,要從既有的業務配額中奪取份額更為困難。在目前情勢下,許多競爭對手正面臨實質的供應不確定性,這為 H.B. Fuller 創造了切入機會。總結而言,這次干擾帶來獨特機會,使我們能支援既有客戶並提升市占率,並為未來更佳的銷量成長奠定定位。

  • Now let me turn the call over to John Corkrean to review our first quarter results in more detail and our updated outlook for 2026.

    現在讓我把電話交給 John Corkrean,請他更詳細地回顧我們第一季的業績,以及我們對 2026 年的最新展望。

  • John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Celeste. I'll begin with some additional financial details on the first quarter. For the quarter, organic revenue was down 6.6% year-on-year with pricing up 0.6% and volume down 7.2%. Currency had a positive impact of 3.6% and acquisitions increased revenue by 0.7%. Adjusted gross profit margin was 31.3%, up 170 basis points versus last year as positive pricing and raw material actions as well as restructuring savings more than offset volume declines.

    謝謝你,Celeste。我先補充一些第一季的財務細節。本季有機營收年減 6.6%,其中價格上升 0.6%,銷量下降 7.2%。匯率帶來 3.6% 的正面影響,併購使營收增加 0.7%。調整後毛利率為 31.3%,較去年提升 170 個基點,因為正向的定價與原物料措施以及重整節省,足以抵銷銷量下滑的影響。

  • Adjusted selling, general and administrative expense was up 4% year-over-year. Excluding the impact of acquisitions and foreign exchange, SG&A was down slightly year-on-year, reflecting diligent expense management. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $119 million, up 4% versus last year as favorable pricing and raw material actions and restructuring savings more than offset the impact of lower volume. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.57 was up 6% versus the same quarter in 2025 driven by higher operating income and lower shares outstanding.

    調整後銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A)年增 4%。若排除併購與外匯影響,SG&A 較去年略降,反映我們嚴謹的費用管理。本季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.19 億美元,較去年成長 4%,因有利的定價與原物料措施及重整節省,足以抵銷較低銷量的影響。調整後每股盈餘(EPS)為 0.57 美元,較 2025 年同季成長 6%,主要由較高的營業利益與流通在外股數減少所帶動。

  • Cash flow from operations improved $49 million year-on-year. As previously communicated, operating cash flow for 2026 is expected to be weighted to the second half of the year. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.1 times, consistent with fiscal year-end 2025 and down from 3.5 times at the end of the first quarter of last year.

    營運活動現金流量年增 4,900 萬美元。如先前所溝通,2026 年的營運現金流預期將偏重於下半年。淨負債對調整後 EBITDA 倍數為 3.1 倍,與 2025 會計年度年末一致,且較去年第一季末的 3.5 倍下降。

  • With that, let me now turn to our guidance for the 2026 fiscal year. As a result of our year-to-date performance and our response to the supply chain disruption Celeste outlined earlier, we are updating our previously communicated financial guidance for fiscal 2026. Net revenue is now expected to be up mid-single digits and organic revenue is now expected to be up low single digits versus fiscal 2025 and reflecting updated pricing actions and anticipated market share gains. We now expect foreign currency translation to positively impact revenue by 1% to 2%.

    接著我來說明我們對 2026 會計年度的財測指引。基於年初至今的表現,以及我們對 Celeste 先前提到的供應鏈中斷所採取的因應措施,我們正在更新先前公布的 2026 會計年度財務指引。目前預期淨營收將呈現中個位數成長;相較 2025 會計年度,有機營收預期將呈現低個位數成長,並反映更新後的定價措施與預期的市占率提升。我們目前預期外幣換算將對營收帶來 1% 至 2% 的正面影響。

  • Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026 is now expected to be in the range of $645 million to $675 million. And adjusted EPS is now expected to be in the range of $4.55 to $4.90. Net revenue for the second quarter is expected to be up low single digits and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $175 million to $185 million.

    2026 會計年度調整後 EBITDA 目前預期介於 6.45 億至 6.75 億美元。調整後 EPS 目前預期介於 4.55 至 4.90 美元。第二季淨營收預期將呈現低個位數成長,調整後 EBITDA 預期介於 1.75 億至 1.85 億美元。

  • We have updated our short-term capital allocation priorities given the current petrochemical market disruption and uncertainty. While M&A remains a cornerstone of our growth strategy, and we continue to evaluate strategic acquisitions, we will pause on closing deals in the near term, focusing more cash deployment on share repurchases, while we deliver on our commitment to achieve our target of 2.5 times to 3 times net debt to EBITDA.

    鑑於目前石化市場的擾動與不確定性,我們已更新短期資本配置優先順序。雖然併購仍是我們成長策略的核心支柱,我們也持續評估策略性收購,但短期內我們將暫停完成交易,把更多現金運用聚焦於庫藏股回購,同時履行承諾,達成淨負債對 EBITDA 2.5 倍至 3 倍的目標。

  • Now let me turn the call back over to Celeste to wrap this up.

    現在我把電話交回給 Celeste 作結。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, John. Our operational focus is on controlling what we can, leveraging our global sourcing advantage, maintaining commercial discipline, and executing our strategy with consistency. The current disruption further reinforces the importance of a resilient supply chain and manufacturing network. Against this backdrop, Project Quantum Leap is progressing well and remains on track. Our redesigned plant and supply chain network will strengthen our long-term competitiveness and deliver improved profitability.

    謝謝你,John。我們的營運重點是掌控我們能掌控的事項,善用全球採購優勢,維持商業紀律,並以一致性執行我們的策略。目前的擾動更凸顯具韌性的供應鏈與製造網路的重要性。在此背景下,「Quantum Leap」專案進展良好,且仍按計畫推進。我們重新設計的工廠與供應鏈網路將強化我們的長期競爭力,並帶來更佳的獲利能力。

  • We've provided context today on what we expect from the developments in the Middle East. Most importantly, our primary focus remains on our employees, our customers and those affected by the ongoing conflict. I particularly want to thank and recognize our leaders in the region who have stepped up to ensure the continued safety and well-being of our employees. Our agility, decisiveness and collaborative approach ensure we will continue to serve customers reliably and differentiate ourselves from our competition while generating sustainable value for shareholders.

    今天我們已就中東局勢發展的預期影響提供了背景說明。最重要的是,我們的首要關注仍是我們的員工、客戶,以及所有受到持續衝突影響的人們。我特別要感謝並表揚我們在當地的領導團隊,他們挺身而出,確保員工持續的安全與福祉。我們的敏捷、果斷與協作方式,將確保我們能持續可靠地服務客戶、在競爭中脫穎而出,並為股東創造可持續的價值。

  • That concludes our prepared remarks for today. Operator, please open the line for questions.

    以上是我們今天準備好的發言。接線員,請開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Patrick Cunningham, Citigroup.

    (接線員指示) Patrick Cunningham,花旗集團。

  • Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

    Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

  • I just wanted to start off on the 10% price hike and the guidance raise, I guess, given this announcement and pretty sudden raw material constraints and pricing. I guess, does the -- does your price cost assumption still holds? Are you baking in additional benefits from price here? Just wondering how the cadence of net price translates to raising the full year guide here.

    我想先從 10% 的漲價以及上調財測指引談起。我想,考量到這項宣布,以及原物料限制與定價的相當突然變化。我想問的是——你們的「價格/成本」假設是否仍然成立?你們是否把額外的價格效益納入考量?想請教淨價格變動的節奏,是如何轉化為上調全年指引的。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So Patrick, we're baking in additional price and raw material benefit, but also negative volume benefit. But I think it's important to take that question in the broader backdrop of what's happening in the industry. So there's a couple of things going on here that I think are really important. I tried to reference them in the script.

    是的。Patrick,我們確實把額外的價格與原物料效益納入考量,但同時也納入了銷量的負面影響。不過我認為,把這個問題放在產業正在發生的更大背景下來看很重要。目前有幾件事正在發生,我認為非常關鍵。我也嘗試在講稿中提到。

  • But the first thing is that as we look at the landscape that we're now in, this is a very different adhesive market environment and a one where the -- our ability to gain share is enhanced. I say that because when you think about how we usually win business, it is by winning new applications with customers that are introducing a new product or upgrading a product or maybe working with a customer that has a problem on their line or a performance problem in their existing adhesive. But those latter things don't happen very often.

    第一點是,當我們看現在所處的市場版圖,這是一個非常不同的黏著劑市場環境,而我們提升市占的能力也因此增強。我之所以這麼說,是因為回想我們通常如何贏得業務:我們是透過在客戶推出新產品、升級產品時,贏得新的應用案;或是與某些客戶合作,解決其產線問題或現有黏著劑的性能問題。但後面這些情況其實不常發生。

  • So normally, our share gains happen through the winning innovation that we bring -- solutions for new products. Now what's happened today is that as it relates to the current adhesive allocation everything's changed, right? We have competitors that are unable to get raw materials, we have customers that are seeking those raw materials.

    因此在正常情況下,我們的市占提升多半來自我們帶來的創新——為新產品提供解決方案。但今天發生的事情是:就目前黏著劑配給而言,一切都改變了,對吧?我們有競爭對手拿不到原物料,也有客戶正在尋找那些原物料。

  • We are out aggressively doing everything we can to increase allocations, to go after raw material provisions with other suppliers. So that pricing comes in the context of an environment where the market's really squeezed. But on top of that, the opportunity to bring solutions to customers directly relates to share increase.

    我們正積極採取一切行動來提高配給量,並向其他供應商爭取原物料供應。因此,這次定價是在市場被大幅擠壓的環境下進行的。此外,為客戶提供解決方案的機會,也直接關聯到市占提升。

  • On top of that, we believe this market reset is a very sustainable place for us to be. I say that because, today, if you look at the overall raw material supply base, what you see is that our suppliers have really thin margins, they're below their reinvestment economics, there's capacity coming out of the system because their profitability is so low. So what we expect to see is those raw material suppliers to also use this as a market reset, raise the underlying, underpinning cost structure within our raw material environment. And thus, we felt the need to get out quickly with price, not only because we don't think that underpinning that raw material cost structure is going to go away. We don't think that's going to decline over time.

    再者,我們相信這次市場重置對我們而言是非常可持續的狀態。我之所以這麼說,是因為今天若你觀察整體原物料供應基礎,你會看到供應商的利潤非常薄,低於其再投資所需的經濟水準;由於獲利太低,系統中的產能正在退出。因此我們預期,這些原物料供應商也會把這次當作市場重置的契機,提高原物料環境中底層、支撐性的成本結構。因此我們覺得必須迅速採取漲價,不僅因為我們不認為支撐原物料成本結構的因素會消失,我們也不認為它會隨時間下降。

  • But also, we knew we had to be out paying suppliers to get more raw material share than anyone else. Because on this journey to greater market share, the most important part of that journey today is making sure we have raw materials to satisfy our customers with.

    同時,我們也知道必須以更高的價格向供應商採購,才能取得比其他任何人更多的原物料份額。因為在邁向更高市占的這段旅程中,當下最重要的一環,就是確保我們有原物料可用來滿足客戶需求。

  • The second part of that journey that's also really important is that not only do we have those raw materials, which are going to remain scarce, but that we're choosing those customers to -- that want to work with us and innovate with us as partners to use those scarce raw materials with. So we're being very selective about where to gain share and how to use those precious resources.

    這段旅程的第二個同樣重要的部分是:不僅要有那些將持續稀缺的原物料,還要選擇那些願意與我們合作、並以夥伴關係與我們共同創新的客戶,來使用這些稀缺原物料。因此,我們在市占提升的方向與如何運用這些珍貴資源上,會非常審慎且有選擇性。

  • John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • A little more context as it relates to how we thought about the rest of this year. You're right. The impact of pricing as and volume is driving probably 2/3 of the change we're making to our guidance.

    再補充一些背景,說明我們如何看待今年剩餘時間。你說得對。定價以及銷量的影響,可能驅動了我們這次調整指引變動的約 2/3。

  • Just to put it in context, we are now expecting organic growth to be up low single digits, which is roughly high single-digit pricing because we'll be probably averaging roughly 10% or more pricing for the rest of this year. But we've taken our volume assumption down, we were assuming volume would be sort of flat to down 1%. Now we're assuming it will be down 5%. But I would say the way we expect to manage pricing and raws and the expectation that we'll get some market share gains. That's probably delivering maybe $10 million of additional favorable EBITDA impact this year.

    為了把它放在脈絡中,我們現在預期有機成長將是低個位數上升,這大致相當於高個位數的定價,因為今年剩餘時間我們的平均漲價幅度大概會在約 10% 或更高。但我們下調了對銷量的假設,先前我們假設銷量大致持平到下滑 1%。現在我們假設將下滑 5%。不過我會說,我們預期管理定價與原物料的方式,以及我們預期會取得一些市占率提升。這可能在今年帶來約 1,000 萬美元的額外有利 EBITDA 影響。

  • The rest of the increase is a number of things. We're making more progress more quickly on our restructuring actions, FX is a little favorable. But hopefully, that gives you some context as to how we're thinking about the impact of pricing raws and volume.

    其餘的增加來自多項因素。我們在重組行動上取得更快、更多的進展,匯率也略為有利。但希望這能讓你更了解我們如何看待定價、原物料與銷量的影響。

  • Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

    Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

  • No, that's very helpful. And maybe just topical with the lower volume outlook. I think HHC previous quarter, you called out some inventory positioning in December, some tighter inventory management. Did that get worse in January and February? Did it start to trend better? I'm just wondering, I think the organic growth was maybe a bit sharper decline than we expected. So any additional color on what's going on in HHC and maybe (inaudible) within that?

    不,這非常有幫助。另外,針對較低的銷量展望,可能就近期話題再問一下。我記得 HHC 在上一季你提到 12 月的一些庫存配置、更嚴格的庫存管理。1 月和 2 月有變得更糟嗎?還是開始改善?我只是想了解,我覺得有機成長的下滑可能比我們預期更劇烈一些。所以能否再多補充一些 HHC 的情況,以及其中可能(聽不清)發生了什麼?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. In the HHC business, we are seeing a lot of pressure on the consumer, so a few things are happening there. To your point, the inventory management is real. It's occurring at big customers, but also we really see it in distributors as well. And when you think about it, they're serving the smaller customers, those smaller customers are really being impacted by tariffs and other inflationary measures. So we're seeing that inventory control for sure.

    是的。在 HHC 業務中,我們看到消費者承受很大壓力,所以那裡正在發生幾件事。如你所說,庫存管理確實存在。這不僅發生在大型客戶端,我們也在經銷商端明顯看到。而當你想到他們服務的是較小型客戶時,那些小型客戶確實受到關稅與其他通膨措施的影響。因此我們確實看到庫存控管。

  • The other thing we're seeing is that the consumer is switching away from, I'll call it, more premium products. And with a premium product, you usually have more adhesive usage. There's more features and benefits on those products. So when the consumer switches down then we're selling less adhesive for the end goods that they're buying, and they're buying smaller package sizes. Again, smaller packages mean less glue. And you see all of that in the HHC space.

    我們看到的另一件事是,消費者正在轉向遠離我所稱的較高端產品。而高端產品通常會使用更多黏著劑。這些產品有更多功能與效益。所以當消費者往下轉換時,我們在他們購買的終端商品上所銷售的黏著劑就變少了,而且他們也在買更小的包裝規格。同樣地,更小的包裝意味著更少的膠。你在 HHC 領域就會看到這一切。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Harrison, Seaport Research Partners.

    Mike Harrison,Seaport Research Partners。

  • Michael Harrison - Analyst

    Michael Harrison - Analyst

  • Congrats on a nice start to the year. Was hoping that you could talk a little bit, I feel like on the fourth quarter call and when you initially gave guidance, there was an expectation that the timing of Lunar New Year was going to be a headwind in Q1 and a tailwind in Q2. And so I was wondering if you could help us quantify how much that Lunar New Year timing played into the 7% year-on-year volume decline?

    恭喜今年開局不錯。我想請你談談:我覺得在第四季電話會議以及你們最初給出指引時,原本預期農曆新年的時間點會在第一季形成逆風、在第二季形成順風。所以我想請你們協助量化一下,農曆新年時間點對年對年銷量下滑 7% 的影響有多少?

  • And then maybe also just talk about how you've seen activity in China and other parts of Asia coming out of the Lunar New Year. And curious how they responded to kind of the initial impacts of the Middle East conflict?

    另外也想請你談談,農曆新年過後,你們看到中國及亞洲其他地區的活動情況如何。也想了解他們對中東衝突初期影響的反應如何?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So we experienced about a $15 million to $20 million revenue impact from Chinese New Year in Q1. You will see that that's already in our guide for Q2, so that ended up just getting pushed out into the second quarter. And as we looked at overall Asia's performance, we had seen China bounce back to double-digit growth if we extract that impact of Chinese New Year, we would have had another double-digit quarter in Asia in Q1.

    是的。第一季我們因為農曆新年(中國新年)約有 1,500 萬到 2,000 萬美元的營收影響。你會看到這已經反映在我們第二季的指引中,所以那基本上只是被遞延到第二季。而當我們看亞洲整體表現時,如果把農曆新年的影響扣除,我們看到中國回升到雙位數成長;第一季亞洲本來也會是另一個雙位數的季度。

  • I was just there in January for a couple of weeks. So to answer your question about what we -- what I saw when I was there and in the region, I see a very motivated population base. In fact, I think the tariff impact in Q2 and Q3 of last year really caused a pause. But the country was able to quickly reassert new export markets for their goods. And in fact, in Q1, our HHC business did very well in Asia Pacific. It was the best performing region.

    我 1 月剛在那裡待了兩週左右。所以回答你關於我們——或我——在當地及該區域看到什麼:我看到一個非常有動力的人口基礎。事實上,我認為去年第二、第三季的關稅影響確實造成了一段暫停。但這個國家很快就為其商品重新開拓了新的出口市場。而且在第一季,我們的 HHC 業務在亞太表現非常好。那是表現最好的區域。

  • And part of that was because there's been such an increase in the exportation of a lot of these hygiene products out of China. So we have focused our business in China in HHC away from the lower cost baby diapers, as I've mentioned before. But we've also, at the same time, redirected that capacity to more higher-end fem care and adult incontinence products. And that's where we saw a lot of a lot of growth in China in Q1.

    其中一部分原因是,許多這類衛生用品從中國出口的量大幅增加。因此我們在中國的 HHC 業務已經把重心從低成本嬰兒尿布移開,如我之前提過。同時,我們也把那部分產能轉向更高端的女性護理與成人失禁產品。而這正是我們在第一季於中國看到大量成長的地方。

  • John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And Mike, I can just give -- and just to maybe build on that because you had, I think, asked kind of are we seeing this flow through in Q2 as expected. I'd say, yes, the impact to Q1, and I think the impact to Q2 will be as expected, which is roughly $20 million of revenue.

    Mike,我也可以補充——也許在此基礎上再說明一下,因為我想你問的是,我們是否如預期在第二季看到這個影響延續。我會說,是的,第一季的影響,以及我認為第二季的影響都會如預期,大約是 2,000 萬美元的營收。

  • So as we look at the first few weeks of our -- what is our period for, we certainly see an increase in activity and volume in China. We actually see a little bit of a step up in all regions. I think this is in part customers trying to get out ahead of some of these supply challenges. And I do think we're also getting some additional share because we've been able to secure material. So I'd say Q2 in China is certainly playing out as we expected. And we saw a little bit of a step up here that is probably related to concerns over supply availability.

    因此,當我們看我們這個期間的前幾週時,我們確實看到中國的活動與銷量增加。我們其實也看到所有地區都有些微的上升。我認為部分原因是客戶試圖提前因應一些供應挑戰。我也確實認為我們因為能夠確保原料而取得了一些額外市占。所以我會說,中國第二季的情況確實如我們預期在發展。而我們看到的這個小幅上升,可能與對供應可得性的擔憂有關。

  • Michael Harrison - Analyst

    Michael Harrison - Analyst

  • All right. Very helpful. And then just in terms of the raw material slate, I know that your slate skews towards specialty chemicals and a lot of those are several steps removed from oil and gas. But just curious if you can talk about any specific materials or buckets or regions where you're starting to see some concerns about supply availability. And maybe help us understand a little bit better the timing of some of this inflationary impact on the P&L.

    好的。非常有幫助。接著就原物料組合而言,我知道你們的組合偏向特用化學品,而其中很多與油氣之間隔了好幾個環節。但我想了解,你們是否能談談有哪些特定材料、類別或區域,開始出現對供應可得性的擔憂。也請協助我們更好理解,這些通膨影響反映到損益表(P&L)的時間點。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So as I mentioned in the script, we've already received over 40 force majeure notices. Now a lot of those, Mike, are coming from the Asia Pacific region, reason for that is because so much of the crude in use in Asia Pacific and in China comes from the Middle Eastern region.

    當然。如我在講稿中提到的,我們已經收到超過 40 份不可抗力(force majeure)通知。其中很多,Mike,是來自亞太地區;原因是亞太與中國使用的原油有很大一部分來自中東地區。

  • So the materials that are impacted -- when I mentioned that we had -- we were quick to raise price to try to get on top of these material increases. I'll tell you, it's because we're already experiencing higher raw material costs. And in some cases, those price increases that I mentioned, they extend from the base level of 10% on up to 40%, 50% on some of our finished goods. So there's examples that abound on different material categories and increases.

    因此,受到影響的材料——當我提到我們迅速調漲價格以試圖掌握這些材料上漲時。我告訴你,是因為我們已經在承受更高的原物料成本。而在某些情況下,我提到的那些漲價幅度,從 10% 的基準水準一路延伸到我們部分成品的 40%、50%。所以在不同材料類別與漲幅方面,有很多例子。

  • VAM is a good example. The spot market in Europe for VAM was up 300% just recently. We have relationships in that particular material class where we have negotiated caps negotiated extended availability, et cetera. And it goes like that in all materials. We do buy specialty chemicals, mostly 87% of what we buy as a specialty chemical.

    VAM 就是一個很好的例子。歐洲 VAM 的現貨市場最近剛上漲了 300%。我們在該特定材料類別上有合作關係,已談妥價格上限、延長供應可得性等等。所有材料大致都是這樣。我們確實會採購特用化學品;我們採購的品項中,大多數(約 87%)都是特用化學品。

  • Normally, prices are influenced by the supply-demand balance within any one of those material classes. But this is a case where everything is impacted. And it is because so much of the crude feedstocks and even LNG availability has been impacted by this event.

    通常,價格會受到各材料類別內供需平衡的影響。但這次是所有東西都受到衝擊。原因在於,這起事件影響了大量原油原料,甚至連 LNG 的供應可得性也受到影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

    Lucas Beaumont,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Lucas Beaumont - Analyst

    Lucas Beaumont - Analyst

  • All right. I just wanted to follow up on the raw materials to start. I mean, kind of the way we've been looking at this sort of high level is we sort of see oil up 25% to 50% on an annualized basis. Eventually, that's going to flow back down to kind of those petchem intermediates. And so you guys raws at 50% of your sales. So directionally, that would sort of seem to point to needing to get kind of 10% to 20% of pricing over time to kind of fully offset that. So I mean it's great you guys kind of gone out proactively with the first sort of 10%. So I was just wondering, is the right way to frame this, that, that is kind of a first step in the process. And then as we get further into this year, you will look to kind of go again as you may do?

    好的。我想先就原物料再追問一下。我的意思是,我們從較高層次來看,看到油價按年化基礎上漲約 25% 到 50%。最終,這會回傳到那些石化中間體。而你們的原物料約占銷售額的 50%。所以從方向上看,似乎意味著隨時間推移,你們需要把價格提高約 10% 到 20%,才能完全抵消這個影響。所以你們主動先推出第一波約 10% 的調價,這很好。我想確認一下,這樣理解是否正確:這算是流程的第一步。然後隨著今年進一步推進,你們可能會再視情況再做一次調整?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, that's absolutely right, Lucas. So we knew we need to get out early, get raw materials. Our team has been working on material acquisition for this -- the last three weeks very aggressively. They saw everything was inflating. And it's not just raw materials.

    是的,Lucas,你說得完全正確。所以我們知道必須及早行動,確保原物料。我們的團隊在過去三週非常積極地進行材料採購。他們看到所有東西都在通膨上漲。而且不只是原物料。

  • It's also energy, it's also freight costs. And so what we knew was that 10% was a minimum that we needed to do across all materials. The team is also, as we speak, negotiating supplements for various raw material classes on top of that today.

    還包括能源,也包括運輸費用。因此我們知道,10% 是我們在所有材料上至少必須採取的最低幅度。同時,團隊此刻也正在就各類原物料在此基礎之上,談判額外的附加費(supplements)。

  • Now again, we want to be responsible in our pricing. We want to make sure we can acquire material for our customers. That's what it's all about right now is their supply security. And so we will likely have other instances throughout the year when we need to reconsider our pricing and look at these underlying material categories and see where we need to do more. But we are right now just at the first step.

    再次強調,我們希望在定價上負責任。我們要確保能為客戶取得材料。現在最重要的就是他們的供應安全。因此,今年之內我們很可能還會有其他時點需要重新檢視定價,回頭看這些底層材料類別,判斷哪裡需要再做更多調整。但目前我們只是處於第一步。

  • Lucas Beaumont - Analyst

    Lucas Beaumont - Analyst

  • Great. And then, I guess, just as we look at the updated outlook for the year, I mean, it seems like it's kind of implying pricing up 7% to 8% and sort of volumes down sort of 5% to 6% as you guys talked about. Could you give us a bit more kind of detail on what you're expecting across the segments on that front? Any areas where you're seeing more or less pressure on the volume side and more or less benefit on the pricing side?

    了解。另外,從你們更新後的年度展望來看,我的意思是,看起來隱含的是價格上漲約 7% 到 8%,而你們提到的量大約下滑 5% 到 6%。你們能否就各事業部(segments)在這方面的預期提供更細的說明?有哪些領域在出貨量端看到較大或較小的壓力,以及在價格端看到較大或較小的助益?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So let me just talk about volume really quickly because I think that's the most -- that's going to be the most difficult part of this equation. So when we think about volume, on the plus side, we know we are going to be taking share. In fact, we've already just last week, had three large global customers, existing customers come to us and ask us if we could if we could supply another application in their end product because they were unable to get their other supplier to supply them. So that share gain is real. And it's -- like I said, it's an unusual time for us because we get to have a chance to see the existing market reallocated. So that's on the plus side.

    可以。我先很快談一下量(volume),因為我認為這會是這個方程式中最——也就是最困難的部分。談到量,正面來看,我們知道我們會拿到市占。事實上,就在上週,已有三家大型全球客戶(既有客戶)來找我們,詢問我們是否能在他們終端產品的另一個應用上供貨,因為他們原本的其他供應商無法供應。所以這個市占提升是真實存在的。而且——如我所說,對我們而言這是一段不尋常的時期,因為我們有機會看到既有市場被重新分配。這是正面的一面。

  • But certainly, the challenging thing on the volume side to -- on the negative side will be, hey, what's going to happen as it relates to overall demand as this inflationary environment persists? And secondly, what we are considering is how much impact will there be from customers that can't get other substrates or other raw materials that go into their end product. They may have the adhesive from us, but they're going to have to get films and other components. And so that's the uncertain part of the equation.

    但當然,在量的面向上——負面、具挑戰性的部分會是:在這種通膨環境持續下去時,整體需求會如何變化?第二,我們也在考量:客戶若拿不到其終端產品所需的其他基材或其他原物料,會造成多大影響?他們可能能從我們這裡拿到膠黏劑,但他們還需要薄膜和其他零組件。因此,這就是方程式中不確定的部分。

  • John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. And I think, Lucas, just to build on that a little bit. I think the impact going to be relatively similar across the GBUs in terms of the impact on volume. And certainly, if we look at our pricing actions, they're very consistent. Celeste mentioned in her remarks and at the beginning that the similarities to 2021 and 2022.

    是的。而且我想,Lucas,我再補充一下。我認為在出貨量的影響上,各個 GBU 之間會相對類似。當然,如果我們看我們的定價行動,它們非常一致。Celeste 在她的發言以及一開始也提到,這與 2021 年和 2022 年有相似之處。

  • And I think it would be really helpful for people to go back and look at that period. And if you look at the results during that period, we were delivering kind of mid-teens organic growth, about 2/3 of the pricing and 1/3 of that volume. And it was very consistent across all three GBUs in terms of seeing improved volume and improved pricing in this environment, we're not counting on that improvement in volume. We know we'll pick up some market share, but we're assuming that, that will be offset by sort of overall demand destruction. But we -- but definitely the pricing actions being taken by all three GBUs sort of support a similar outcome.

    我認為大家回頭去看那段期間會很有幫助。如果你看那段期間的結果,我們交出了大約中十位數(mid-teens)的有機成長,其中約 2/3 來自價格、1/3 來自量。而且在那種環境下,三個 GBU 在量改善與價格改善方面都非常一致;但在目前這個環境中,我們並不指望量會改善。我們知道會拿到一些市占,但我們假設那會被整體需求被破壞(demand destruction)所抵消。不過——三個 GBU 正在採取的定價行動,確實支持一個相近的結果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

    Kevin McCarthy,Vertical Research Partners。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • Celeste, can you elaborate on where you see the greatest opportunities to gain share either by product line, SBU or region of the world, I guess, would be one question. And maybe related to that, as you suggested a lot of these [FM] declarations are coming out of Asia, which tends to be more of a spot market. And so I was wondering if you could talk through how you can achieve these share gains on a more durable basis rather than a transitory basis?

    Celeste,你能否更詳細說明你認為在哪些地方有最大的市占提升機會——不論是按產品線、SBU 或全球區域——這是一個問題。另外可能相關的是,你提到很多這些 [FM](不可抗力)聲明是從亞洲出來的,而那裡往往更偏現貨市場。所以我想請你談談,你們如何能以更持久(durable)而非短暫(transitory)的方式來達成這些市占提升?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Absolutely. So let's start with that last part. The way our sourcing organization works is at the beginning of every year, we more heavily contract our raw materials and leave a less -- a lower portion of our raw material sourcing to spot buying. So we have very durable relationships, long-term relationships with the supply base, including -- and especially the supply base in China.

    當然可以。那我們先從最後那一部分開始。我們的採購組織運作方式是:每年年初,我們會以合約方式鎖定較大比例的原物料,並把較小——也就是較低比例的原物料採購留給現貨採買。因此我們與供應基礎有非常穩固、長期的合作關係,其中也包括——尤其是——中國的供應商。

  • And in fact, interesting enough, while the US and Europe have very strict rules on how materials are allocated in force majeure situations, that's not the case in other countries like China. And so as we have gone forward, we are committing long term to these suppliers that are able to supplement our needs today. And these are suppliers that over the long haul, whether we're talking about the US or Europe or Asia that we work closely with. And we have very strong relationships with. And so I see this as an opportunity to continue to partner with those suppliers, to continue to partner with our customers, and we will experience an environment where we're going to have a more healthy industry going forward.

    而且事實上很有意思的是,美國與歐洲在不可抗力情況下,對材料如何分配有非常嚴格的規則,但在像中國這樣的其他國家並非如此。因此,隨著我們往前推進,我們會對那些今天能補足我們需求的供應商做出長期承諾。這些供應商從長期來看——不論我們談的是美國、歐洲或亞洲——都是我們密切合作的對象。而且我們與他們有非常強的關係。因此我把這視為一個機會:持續與這些供應商合作、持續與客戶合作;而往後我們將會處在一個產業更健康的環境中。

  • So if you look at the different business units and where the opportunities are, again, we buy specialty chemicals, but this impact has occurred across the board. And so I do see quite a number of opportunities to gain share in HHC, certainly, particularly because a lot of the raw material base for HHC comes out of China and as being highly and directly impacted. But we've also been very selective and thoughtful about how we use this opportunity to increase our position in those faster-growing, higher-margin spaces. The more opportunity where we have a greater opportunity to differentiate ourselves like in EA or in BAS. And so the team does have targets as it relates to how they're thinking about this as an opportunity to grow their business and they're doing it quite intentionally.

    所以如果你看不同的事業單位以及機會在哪裡,再次強調,我們採購的是特用化學品,但這個影響是全面性的。因此我確實看到在 HHC 有相當多的機會可以提升市占,當然,特別是因為 HHC 的許多原料基礎來自中國,而中國受到高度且直接的影響。但我們也非常審慎且有策略地思考如何運用這個機會,來提升我們在那些成長更快、毛利更高的領域中的地位。也就是在我們更有機會做出差異化的領域,例如 EA 或 BAS。因此團隊確實有一些目標,關於他們如何把這視為成長業務的機會,而且他們是相當有意識、刻意地在推進。

  • John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. Kevin, I'll just add one thing because your question around how do you make the share gains more durable? So we as Celeste said, we have situations where new customers and a lot of times, previous customers have come to us and asked us to help out during this period of supply shortage. And we're happy to have old customers back. We are asking them to sign longer-term agreements, right? Because I think that's only fair therefore helping them out in the situation that they're signing up.

    好的。Kevin,我再補充一點,因為你的問題是關於如何讓市占提升更具持久性。所以正如 Celeste 所說,我們確實遇到一些情況,新客戶以及很多時候的既有客戶回來找我們,請我們在這段供應短缺期間協助。我們也很高興老客戶回來。我們會要求他們簽更長期的合約,對吧?因為我認為這樣才公平:我們在這種情況下協助他們,他們也承諾簽約。

  • The other thing is that it really does -- as Celeste alluded, it really does change the playing field, right? Because with this supply shortage, it's hard to be the low-cost supplier in this market because you can't get the materials. And so it kind of collapses the playing field a little bit, which helps us out those companies like us that compete based on quality and innovation and premium service. So those are the two things that I think or keys around making these share gains more durable.

    另外一點是,這確實——如 Celeste 所暗示的——確實改變了競爭格局,對吧?因為在這種供應短缺下,很難在這個市場成為低成本供應商,因為你拿不到原料。因此它某種程度上讓競爭場域收斂了一些,這對像我們這種以品質、創新與高端服務來競爭的公司是有利的。所以我認為這兩點就是讓這些市占提升更具持久性的關鍵。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would think of it, Kevin, like a window an opportunity, a window in time, right? Because right now, while there are unmet needs, right? Unfilled capacity customers need material, all the barriers are down to getting share in the existing market. Now what will happen over time is material will -- the Middle East conflict will end, material will be more available again. And however, at the same time, that barrier wall goes back up because once a customer chooses an adhesive it works online, they're likely not to change it unless there's a performance problem or a manufacturing problem because it's just not worth the risk.

    Kevin,我會把它想成是一個機會窗口、一個時間窗口,對吧?因為現在仍有未被滿足的需求,對吧?產能未被填滿、客戶需要材料,所有取得既有市場市占的障礙都降低了。但隨著時間推移,材料會——中東衝突會結束,材料會再次更容易取得。然而同時,那道障礙牆也會再度升起,因為一旦客戶選定某種黏著劑並在產線上運作良好,他們通常不會更換,除非有性能問題或製造問題,因為那樣的風險不值得。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. As a second question, John, I was wondering if you could provide some updated thoughts on your cash flow prospects for 2026, given everything that we've talked about imagine you've got some upward tension from earnings, but possibly some downward tension from working capital. So maybe you could just kind of talk through how you see the basket shaping up.

    這非常有幫助。第二個問題,John,我想請你就 2026 年的現金流前景提供一些最新看法,考量我們剛才談到的一切;我想你們的獲利可能帶來一些上行拉力,但營運資金可能帶來一些下行拉力。所以也許你可以談談你怎麼看整體組合的走向。

  • John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Yes, so we did have a good start to the year from a cash flow standpoint in terms of kind of performance relative to last year, obviously, higher income. We are seeing better working capital performance in the first quarter than we did last year. So that's positive, and we're taking some very intentional actions. So we're comfortable with our guidance, right?

    當然。是的,從現金流角度來看,我們今年開局不錯,就相對於去年而言的表現來說,顯然獲利更高。我們看到第一季的營運資金表現比去年更好。所以這是正面的,而且我們正在採取一些非常有意識的行動。因此我們對我們的指引是有信心的,對吧?

  • It is something we will watch. I think managing inventory will be a little trickier in this environment. And I think we're willing to be -- to live with a little higher inventory if it means helping secure supply assurance. But -- so right now, I feel comfortable with it, but it is something we're monitoring. And I would say that -- the biggest question will probably be around inventory management. We're doing a good job. I think we'll continue to do a good job, but we'll need to be a little flexible.

    這是我們會持續關注的事情。我認為在這種環境下,庫存管理會更棘手一些。而且我想如果這意味著能協助確保供應保障,我們願意——接受庫存稍微高一點。但是——所以目前我對此感到放心,但這確實是我們正在監控的事項。我會說——最大的問題可能會在庫存管理上。我們做得不錯。我認為我們會持續做得不錯,但我們需要更有彈性一些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

    Jeff Zekauskas,摩根大通。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • It sounds like you're doing very well with your price initiatives. You did change your volume expectations for the year, I think, from something like negative 1 to negative 5. Can you expand on the meaning of that change? That is -- is it global economies slowing down? Is it something specific to the Health and Hygiene and Consumables segment? Why is your volume outlook change so much?

    聽起來你們在定價措施方面做得非常好。我想你們確實調整了今年的銷量預期,從大概負 1 變成負 5。你能否進一步說明這個變動的意涵?也就是——是全球經濟在放緩嗎?還是健康、衛生與耗材(Health and Hygiene and Consumables)部門有什麼特定因素?為什麼你們的銷量展望變動這麼大?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. It is a balance, Jeff, of three things. So one is the positive impact of gaining share. The second is the negative impact of our customers potentially not being able to get other materials, other substrates to produce their product with. And then the third is some erosion in global demand because of this inflationary environment. And so we believe the three of those things are likely more net negative than what we felt like coming into the year given this -- and also given this uncertainty, I think we would -- we need to be cautious as it relates to volume.

    是的。Jeff,這是三件事之間的平衡。第一是市占提升帶來的正面影響。第二是負面影響:我們的客戶可能拿不到其他材料、其他基材,來生產他們的產品。第三是在通膨環境下,全球需求有一些走弱。因此我們認為,這三者合計的淨影響,可能比我們年初的感受更偏負面;再加上這種不確定性,我想我們——在銷量方面需要更審慎。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • So obviously, Europe has been the geography where natural gas prices have really risen. And fuel prices have lifted. Is Europe the area of particular concern? Or is it more broad-based?

    所以很明顯,歐洲是天然氣價格大幅上升的地區。燃料價格也上漲了。歐洲是特別令人擔憂的區域嗎?還是影響更為廣泛?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It is broad-based. I would say it's broad-based. I do think that given the strides that the US has made in becoming more energy independent, that it may not be as bad here as it will be in certainly Europe. And Asia is still a question. Again, getting the feedstocks in Asia is the most difficult right now.

    影響是廣泛的。我會說是廣泛的。我確實認為,鑑於美國在提升能源自主方面取得的進展,這裡的情況可能不會像歐洲那麼嚴重。而亞洲仍然是個問號。再次強調,目前在亞洲取得原料(feedstocks)是最困難的。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • Okay. And then --

    好的。然後--

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So Jeff, one other thing -- so Jeff, one other thing to keep in mind, when I say this, again, on average, we produce 97% of what we sell in a region for the region. And in the US, that's 99%. So again, I feel like the US is going to be a little more self-sufficient than some other parts of the world. But I don't -- I wouldn't say that any part of the world looks very good right now.

    Jeff,還有一點——Jeff,還有一點要記住,當我這麼說時,再次強調,平均而言,我們在某個區域為該區域生產我們所銷售產品的 97%。而在美國,這個比例是 99%。所以再次,我覺得美國會比世界其他一些地區更自給自足一些。但我不——我不會說世界上任何地方現在看起來很好。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • And then lastly, can you comment on two more issues. Which are your overall cost reduction aspirations, both what you achieved in the first quarter and what you expect for the end of the year? And then secondly, can you comment on your solar-related revenues and what the decrements are there, if that's the right way to describe.

    最後,能否請你再評論兩個議題。第一是你們整體的降本目標,包括第一季達成了什麼,以及你們預期到年底會是什麼水準?第二,能否談談你們與太陽能相關的營收,以及那裡的遞減幅度(如果這樣描述是恰當的話)。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll take the cost reduction question. And John, maybe you can address solar. So on the cost reduction question. So we came into the year anticipating $10 million of benefit from Quantum Leap. We're increasing that to $15 million this year given this reduction in volume and our decisions that are underway right now to continue to reduce cost to offset that.

    我來回答降本的問題。John,也許你可以回應太陽能。關於降本問題。我們年初預期 Quantum Leap 帶來 1,000 萬美元的效益。鑑於銷量下滑,以及我們目前正在進行、為了抵銷該影響而持續降本的決策,我們把今年的目標提高到 1,500 萬美元。

  • John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. And Jeff, you'd asked about the impact of solar, which was about $12.5 million of revenue in the quarter, and that compares -- and that's probably down 40%. So I think the impact from an overall company standpoint is about 1% and for engineering adhesives, it was about 4% impact. And then I apologize, I forgot what the other item was you asked about.

    是的。Jeff,你問到太陽能的影響,本季相關營收約 1,250 萬美元,相較之下——而且大概下滑了 40%。所以我認為,從整體公司角度來看,影響約為 1%;對工程黏著劑(engineering adhesives)而言,影響約為 4%。然後很抱歉,我忘了你問的另一個項目是什麼。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I answered it.

    我已經回答了。

  • John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. You got it. Okay.

    好的。了解。好的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

    David Begleiter,德意志銀行。

  • Emily Fusco - Analyst

    Emily Fusco - Analyst

  • This is Emily Fusco on for Dave Begleiter. Could you maybe just give some more color on order trends exiting FQ1 into March and kind of what you're seeing in terms of visibility given the uncertainty? I know you mentioned some uptick in China, but have you observed any pull forward in demand or prebuying in other regions? Or anything to call out by segment?

    我是代替 Dave Begleiter 的 Emily Fusco。能否請您再多補充一些關於訂單趨勢的細節:從 FQ1 結束進入 3 月的情況,以及在不確定性之下,您對可見度的觀察?我知道您提到中國有些回升,但在其他地區您是否觀察到需求提前拉貨或預先採購?或是按事業部門/分部有什麼值得特別指出的?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure, Emily. So in March, what we're seeing is an improved -- higher revenue. So we have a good start on March, and we're also seeing improved margins in March. Now of course, some of that is related to Chinese New Year and the bounce back that happens afterwards.

    當然可以,Emily。所以在 3 月,我們看到的是改善——營收更高。因此 3 月開局不錯,我們也看到 3 月的毛利率有所改善。當然,其中一部分與農曆新年以及之後的反彈有關。

  • I'd say we're seeing customers that are anxious to get their orders in. We are avoiding filling orders far in excess of prior year's demand. So the team then really judicious about ensuring that we're not facilitating any hoarding. So I don't think we're seeing that yet, but it has been a robust month.

    我會說我們看到客戶急著把訂單下進來。我們會避免接單/出貨遠遠超過去年需求的水準。因此團隊非常審慎,確保我們不會助長任何囤貨行為。所以我不認為我們目前看到那種情況,但這確實是一個強勁的月份。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

    Ghansham Panjabi,Baird。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This is actually [Josh Wesley] on for Ghansham. Maybe if I could just ask one quick one here. I think in response to Jeff's question, you talked about some of your customers not being able to procure raws to build some of their products. Can you just give some color on what specific GBUs might be seeing an impact there, more so relative to others? And just any color there would be great.

    其實我是代替 Ghansham 的 [Josh Wesley]。如果可以的話,我這裡問一個簡短的問題。我想在回覆 Jeff 的問題時,您提到有些客戶無法取得原料來製造他們的一些產品。能否請您補充一下,哪些特定的 GBU(全球事業單位)相較於其他單位可能受到較大影響?任何補充說明都很有幫助。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So Josh, we're not seeing it yet. We're anticipating it. And I say that because when you think about polyethylene, polypropylene, they're in so many just such a variety of goods. And so we haven't -- I haven't heard yet of an instance where we have a customer that's unable to get their substrates but we're anticipating that there will be some impact of that. And again, that's an environment where we work very closely with our customers because the likelihood when they change their substrate is that they're going to need a different adhesive because adhesives are really so substrate specific. So we're anticipating that we will see that and that we will be working closely with customers to reformulate our products or support them by introducing new products to be able to enable them to get a finished good to market.

    Josh,我們目前還沒有看到。我們是在預期會發生。我這麼說是因為,當你想到聚乙烯、聚丙烯,它們被用在非常多、非常多樣的商品中。因此我們還沒有——我還沒有聽到任何案例是我們的客戶拿不到他們的基材,但我們預期這會帶來一些影響。而且同樣地,在那樣的環境下,我們會與客戶非常緊密合作,因為他們一旦更換基材,很可能就需要不同的黏著劑,因為黏著劑其實非常依賴基材特性。所以我們預期會看到這種情況,並且會與客戶密切合作,重新配方我們的產品,或透過導入新產品來支援他們,使其能把成品推向市場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rosemarie Morbelli, Gabelli.

    Rosemarie Morbelli,Gabelli。

  • Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

    Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone. So one area we haven't touched on is your latest acquisitions. So if we look -- well, could you give us an update on the medical-grade adhesives performance of the last acquisitions. And then this is a category that you are adding to previous acquisitions. So could we also have a ballpark number for the size of this entire entity?

    謝謝。各位早安。有一個領域我們還沒談到,就是你們最新的併購。如果我們來看——嗯,能否請您更新一下最近幾項併購中醫療級黏著劑的表現?另外,這也是你們在先前併購基礎上持續加碼的一個類別。那麼,能否也請您提供一下這整個實體規模的大致數字?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So for the -- so I'll speak just to the medical business, Rosemarie in Europe, in particular, this quarter was a good -- another good strong quarter. Our medical business in Europe was up almost 20%, again, organically. So we continue to see performance out of that business. We don't identify the size of any one of our market segments. And admittedly, the medical business is still small, but you can see it's growing rapidly with performance like that.

    關於——我就醫療業務部分來說,Rosemarie,特別是在歐洲,本季表現不錯——又是一個強勁的季度。我們在歐洲的醫療業務年增將近 20%,同樣是有機成長。因此我們持續看到該業務的良好表現。我們不會揭露任何單一市場區隔的規模。坦白說,醫療業務目前仍然不大,但你可以看到以這樣的表現,它正在快速成長。

  • Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

    Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

  • Expect that particular category to be affected by the price of oil or it is so specific that it won't make a difference?

    您預期那個特定類別會受到油價影響嗎?還是它太過專門,因此不會有差別?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The amount of material used in those goods is really small. So that it's a lot of cyanoacrylate, raw material base is significantly comprised of cyanoacetates. And it's just compared to the industrial use of those products, the medical use is much smaller. So that's one area where we're going to see less of an impact.

    那些產品中使用的材料量其實很小。所以主要是氰基丙烯酸酯(cyanoacrylate),其原料基礎很大一部分由氰基乙酸酯(cyanoacetates)構成。而且相較於這些產品的工業用途,醫療用途的量小得多。因此這是我們預期受影響較小的一個領域。

  • Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

    Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

  • Okay. And then if I may follow up on a couple of questions. The solar comparison. When are you going to be at the level where it doesn't make any difference? So you have reached the bottom of that particular business?

    好的。如果我可以再追問幾個問題。關於太陽能的比較基期。你們什麼時候會到達那種「不再有影響」的水準?也就是說,你們已經觸底那項業務了嗎?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. We'll be wrapping that around by third quarter.

    是的。我們會在第三季把那部分影響消化完。

  • Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

    Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

  • Okay. And should we expect similar impact in the next two quarters in?

    好的。那接下來兩季也會有類似影響嗎?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. We're already at the trough revenue we expect there. So it will run rate at about this level.

    是的。我們已經在我們預期的營收谷底。所以之後大概就會以這個水準作為常態化的 run rate。

  • Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

    Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

  • Okay. And if I may, that 20% EBITDA margin that you are targeting in this environment, can you still get to it by 2029 or maybe it has been pushed out another year?

    好的。如果可以的話,你們在這樣的環境下所鎖定的 20% EBITDA 利潤率,仍然能在 2029 年前達成嗎?還是可能會再往後延一年?

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We can still get there.

    我們仍然可以達成。

  • Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

    Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

  • But no timing. Okay. Thank you.

    但沒有時間點。好的。謝謝。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, we're really right on track Rosemarie. And our objective for this year is to maintain margin. So we got out really early to make sure we were not going to see a big raw material margin lag impact. So we're really working hard to deliver on that 20% commitment over time.

    不,我們其實進度非常如期,Rosemarie。而且我們今年的目標是維持利潤率。所以我們很早就採取行動,確保不會看到原物料造成的毛利率落後(lag)帶來重大影響。因此我們正非常努力,長期兌現 20% 的承諾。

  • John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Corkrean - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I think we said by 2028, and I think that's still our target.

    是的。我想我們說的是在 2028 年前,我認為那仍然是我們的目標。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, it was 2028, Rosemarie, not 2029.

    是的,是 2028 年,Rosemarie,不是 2029 年。

  • Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

    Rosemarie Morbelli - Analyst

  • See, I was already giving you a year.

    你看,我都已經先多給你們一年了。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I know. I should have run with that, but no.

    我知道。我本來應該順勢接受的,但不行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I will now turn the call back to Celeste Mastin, President and CEO, for closing remarks.

    我現在把電話交回給總裁兼執行長 Celeste Mastin 作結語。

  • Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Celeste Mastin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you all for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

    感謝各位今天早上加入我們。我們期待在下個季度再次與各位交流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

    各位女士、先生,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以掛線。