(FUL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Chris, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the H.B. Fuller Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

早上好。我叫克里斯，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家來到H.B.富勒 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Steven Brazones, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin.

投資者關係副總裁 Steven Brazones，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Welcome to H.B. Fuller's Fourth Quarter 2022 Investor Conference Call. Presenting today are Celeste Mastin, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Corkrean, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks, we will have a question-and-answer session. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that our comments today will include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

謝謝你，運營商。歡迎來到 H.B.富勒 2022 年第四季度投資者電話會議。今天出席會議的有總裁兼首席執行官 Celeste Mastin；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 John Corkrean。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將進行問答環節。在我們開始之前，讓我提醒大家，我們今天的評論將包括對某些非 GAAP 財務指標的引用。

These measures are supplemental to the results determined in accordance with GAAP. We believe that these measures are useful to investors in understanding our operating performance and to compare our performance with other companies. Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure are included in our earnings release.

這些措施是對根據公認會計原則確定的結果的補充。我們相信，這些措施有助於投資者了解我們的經營業績，並將我們的業績與其他公司進行比較。非 GAAP 指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標的調節包含在我們的收益發布中。

Unless otherwise noted, comments about revenue refer to organic revenue and comments about EPS, EBITDA and profit margins refer to adjusted non-GAAP measures. We will also be making forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

除非另有說明，關於收入的評論是指有機收入，關於每股收益、EBITDA 和利潤率的評論是指調整後的非 GAAP 指標。我們還將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。這些陳述基於受風險和不確定因素影響的當前預期和假設。

Actual results could differ materially from these expectations due to factors covered in our earnings release, comments made during this call and the risk factors detailed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, all of which are available on our website at investors.hbfuller.com. I will now turn the call over to Celeste Mastin. Celeste?

由於我們的收益發布中涵蓋的因素、本次電話會議中發表的評論以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳述的風險因素，實際結果可能與這些預期存在重大差異，所有這些都可以在我們的網站 investors.hbfuller 上找到。 com。我現在將把電話轉給 Celeste Mastin。塞萊斯特？

Thank you, Steven, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin to discuss our results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year, I would first like to thank the many team members I have engaged with throughout my travels over the last several months. You have been so hospitable and have smoothed my transition here into my role as CEO.

謝謝你，史蒂文，歡迎大家。在我們開始討論第四季度和本財年的業績之前，我首先要感謝在過去幾個月的旅途中與我接觸過的許多團隊成員。您一直非常熱情好客，讓我順利過渡到擔任首席執行官一職。

Your enthusiasm and passion for our business is energizing, and I appreciate your drive and devotion in serving our valued customers each and every day. Thank you.

您對我們業務的熱情和熱情令人振奮，我感謝您每天為我們尊貴的客戶服務的動力和奉獻精神。謝謝你。

In fiscal year 2022, we delivered exceptional financial results, driven by market share gains, responsible pricing actions and diligent execution of our strategy. We delivered strong double-digit growth in organic revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS.

在 2022 財年，我們取得了出色的財務業績，這得益於市場份額的增長、負責任的定價行為和我們戰略的勤奮執行。我們在有機收入、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的每股收益方面實現了強勁的兩位數增長。

This is particularly impressive given the significant headwinds we endured from continued raw material cost inflation, supply chain disruptions, a strengthening U.S. dollar and substantially higher interest rates. For the year, we grew organic revenue by 17%, with strong organic revenue growth in all 3 GBUs, EBITDA by 14% and adjusted EPS by 15%.

鑑於我們因原材料成本持續上漲、供應鏈中斷、美元走強和利率大幅上漲而承受的巨大阻力，這一點尤其令人印象深刻。今年，我們的有機收入增長了 17%，所有 3 個 GBU 的有機收入增長強勁，EBITDA 增長了 14%，調整後的每股收益增長了 15%。

We also delivered another strong cash flow performance with operating cash flow up 20% year-on-year. I am very proud of the team's resilience and determination in executing our winning strategy to deliver these impressive results in spite of a very difficult operating backdrop.

我們還實現了另一個強勁的現金流表現，經營現金流同比增長 20%。我為團隊在非常困難的運營背景下執行我們的製勝戰略以取得這些令人印象深刻的成果的韌性和決心感到非常自豪。

At the same time, we recognize that we did not finish the year as strong as we had expected. During the fourth quarter, we experienced an accelerated slowdown in demand in Construction Adhesives driven by inventory destocking actions by our customers.

與此同時，我們認識到我們並沒有像預期的那樣強勁地結束這一年。在第四季度，由於客戶的庫存去庫存行動，我們的建築粘合劑需求加速放緩。

While we were expecting demand to decline sequentially in Construction Adhesives and had a very difficult comparison versus the fourth quarter of last year, destocking actions were more pronounced and faster than we were anticipating. In addition, more aggressive COVID-related shutdowns in China rather than an easing in such measures, negatively impacted growth in our Asia Pacific region.

雖然我們預計建築粘合劑的需求將連續下降，並且與去年第四季度相比非常困難，但去庫存行動比我們預期的更為明顯和更快。此外，中國與 COVID 相關的更激進的關閉而不是放鬆此類措施，對我們亞太地區的增長產生了負面影響。

This was unexpected and contrary to the strengthening demand trend we saw in the first 3 quarters of the year. And lastly, the U.S. dollar, which had already strengthened quite considerably throughout the first 3 quarters of the year, strengthened even further during our fourth quarter.

這是出乎意料的，並且與我們在今年前 3 季度看到的強勁需求趨勢相反。最後，美元在今年前三個季度已經大幅走強，在第四季度進一步走強。

These challenges adversely impacted our revenue and EBITDA growth and our financial results fell below our expectations for the fourth quarter. While disappointing, our underlying business remains very healthy, and we believe the conditions negatively impacting demand in Construction Adhesives will abate over time.

這些挑戰對我們的收入和 EBITDA 增長產生了不利影響，我們的財務業績低於我們對第四季度的預期。雖然令人失望，但我們的基礎業務仍然非常健康，我們相信對建築粘合劑需求產生負面影響的情況會隨著時間的推移而減弱。

Overall, given the diversity of our geographic and end market exposure, our pricing execution in 2022 and the expectation of lower raw material costs, we are well positioned for continued strong profit growth and margin expansion in 2023 and beyond.

總體而言，鑑於我們的地域和終端市場風險敞口的多樣性、我們在 2022 年的定價執行以及原材料成本降低的預期，我們有能力在 2023 年及以後繼續實現強勁的利潤增長和利潤率擴張。

Looking at our consolidated results in the fourth quarter, organic revenues increased 6% year-on-year. This was driven by strong organic growth in both Hygiene, Health and Consumable Adhesives and Engineering Adhesives. The strength of these 2 business units more than offset the weakness in Construction Adhesives.

從我們第四季度的綜合業績來看，有機收入同比增長 6%。這是由衛生、健康和消耗性粘合劑以及工程粘合劑的強勁有機增長推動的。這 2 個業務部門的實力足以抵消建築粘合劑業務的疲軟。

Responsibly strong pricing actions taken throughout the year drove the organic growth in the fourth quarter. From a profitability perspective, despite the challenging financial results in Construction Adhesives, we again achieved sequential EBITDA margin expansion in the fourth quarter, marking the third consecutive increase in adjusted EBITDA margin this year.

全年採取的負責任的強有力的定價行動推動了第四季度的有機增長。從盈利能力的角度來看，儘管建築粘合劑業務的財務業績充滿挑戰，但我們在第四季度再次實現了 EBITDA 利潤率的環比增長，這標誌著今年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率連續第三次增長。

On a year-over-year basis, adjusted EBITDA was up 5% in the fourth quarter to $141 million and adjusted EBITDA margin remained stable year-on-year at 14.7% despite significantly higher raw material costs. Now let me move on to review the performance in each of our segments in the fourth quarter.

與去年同期相比，調整後的 EBITDA 在第四季度增長了 5% 至 1.41 億美元，儘管原材料成本大幅上漲，但調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率同比穩定在 14.7%。現在讓我繼續回顧第四季度我們每個部門的表現。

In HHC, organic revenue was up 12% year-on-year, with most end markets achieving strong double-digit organic growth. Beverage labeling, hygiene, packaging, tissue and towel, and health and beauty markets were particularly strong.

在 HHC，有機收入同比增長 12%，大多數終端市場實現了強勁的兩位數有機增長。飲料標籤、衛生、包裝、紙巾和毛巾以及健康和美容市場尤其強勁。

HHC's pricing actions offset lower volume and drove organic revenue growth in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for HHC increased 5% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased year-on-year due to higher raw material costs and lower volume.

HHC 的定價行動抵消了本季度較低的銷量並推動了有機收入增長。 HHC 的調整後 EBITDA 同比增長 5%。由於原材料成本上升和銷量下降，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率同比下降。

In Engineering Adhesives, organic revenue increased by 9%, led by exceptionally strong growth in automotive and insulated glass. Strong pricing actions and higher volume drove EA's organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 23% in EA and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 240 basis points year-on-year to nearly 18%.

在工程粘合劑領域，有機收入增長了 9%，這主要得益於汽車和絕緣玻璃的異常強勁增長。強大的定價行動和更高的銷量推動了 EA 的有機增長。調整後的 EBITDA 在 EA 增長 23%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率同比增長 240 個基點至近 18%。

Pricing actions and expense management drove the improvement year-on-year and offset the impact of significantly higher raw material costs. In Construction Adhesives, organic sales declined 20% year-on-year due to customer destocking activities and more challenging economic conditions.

定價行動和費用管理推動了同比改善，抵消了原材料成本大幅上漲的影響。在建築粘合劑方面，由於客戶去庫存活動和更具挑戰性的經濟條件，有機銷售額同比下降 20%。

The prior year's fourth quarter benefited from the post-COVID demand surge in construction markets, which has since reverted given the current economic backdrop. The decline in organic sales was driven principally by a slowdown in the roofing market. Adjusted EBITDA for Construction Adhesives declined in the fourth quarter, driven by lower volume and higher raw material costs.

去年第四季度受益於建築市場在 COVID 後的需求激增，鑑於當前的經濟背景，這種需求已經恢復。有機銷售額的下降主要是由於屋頂市場的放緩。建築粘合劑的調整後 EBITDA 在第四季度有所下降，原因是銷量下降和原材料成本上升。

Geographically, Americas organic growth was up 3% year-on-year, significantly impacted by the decline in Construction Adhesives. Organic growth, absent Construction Adhesives, was up double digits in the Americas in the fourth quarter.

從地域上看，美洲的有機增長同比增長 3%，主要受建築粘合劑業務下滑的影響。第四季度美洲的有機增長（不包括建築粘合劑）實現了兩位數的增長。

In EMEA, organic revenues increased 13% versus the fourth quarter of last year. Weak economic conditions in the region persisted but did not worsen sequentially versus the third quarter. In Asia Pacific, organic revenues increased 3% year-on-year.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，有機收入比去年第四季度增長了 13%。該地區疲軟的經濟狀況持續存在，但與第三季度相比沒有惡化。在亞太地區，有機收入同比增長 3%。

More severe COVID-related lockdown restrictions in China negatively impacted sales development for the region, and this was contrary to the strengthening trend we experienced during the second and third quarters of 2022.

中國更嚴格的與 COVID 相關的封鎖限制對該地區的銷售發展產生了負面影響，這與我們在 2022 年第二和第三季度經歷的走強趨勢背道而馳。

Overall, global economic conditions have slowed throughout the year, largely as we expected, but for Construction Adhesives, reflecting customer inventory reductions and slowing end market demand. Europe remains weak and an expected rebound in China has been delayed.

總體而言，全球經濟狀況全年放緩，這在很大程度上符合我們的預期，但對於建築粘合劑而言，這反映了客戶庫存減少和終端市場需求放緩。歐洲仍然疲軟，中國的預期反彈被推遲。

Macro conditions in the Americas are also slowing as the impacts of higher interest rates begin to temper demand. Construction Adhesives is being disproportionately impacted in the short term given the economic sensitivity of this sector and heavy customer destocking activities.

隨著更高利率的影響開始抑制需求，美洲的宏觀狀況也在放緩。鑑於該行業的經濟敏感性和大量客戶去庫存活動，建築粘合劑在短期內受到的影響尤為嚴重。

Both HHC and EA are weathering the challenging economic situation well aided by their diverse geographic and end market exposures. While the economic outlook poses challenges, we are prepared and well positioned to control expenses, expand margins and grow cash flow in such an environment. We are beginning to see the rate of aggregate raw material cost inflation slow, and we expect this to continue as we progress throughout the year.

HHC 和 EA 得益於其多元化的地域和終端市場敞口，都很好地度過了充滿挑戰的經濟形勢。儘管經濟前景帶來挑戰，但我們已做好準備並做好準備，可以在這種環境下控制開支、擴大利潤並增加現金流。我們開始看到原材料總成本通脹率放緩，我們預計隨著全年的進展，這種情況將持續下去。

Generally, it takes about a quarter for changes in raw material costs to cycle through inventory and impact the P&L. While aggregate raw material cost inflation is beginning to taper, it's not universal. The preponderance of our raw material purchases in November were at the same or higher prices than in the month of October.

一般來說，原材料成本的變化需要大約四分之一的時間才能通過庫存循環並影響損益表。雖然總體原材料成本通脹開始放緩，但這並不普遍。我們在 11 月份採購的大部分原材料價格與 10 月份相同或更高。

Accordingly, we continued to increase prices in the fourth quarter, and additional price increases are planned in 2023. The value we generate for our customers as a solutions provider, as reflected in our pricing performance, together with the diversity and scale of our raw material purchases will enable us to expand margins in an environment of declining raw material cost inflation.

因此，我們在第四季度繼續提價，併計劃在 2023 年進一步提價。我們作為解決方案提供商為客戶創造的價值，反映在我們的定價表現，以及我們原材料的多樣性和規模上採購將使我們能夠在原材料成本通脹下降的環境中擴大利潤率。

Following 2 years of unprecedented supply chain disruption and significantly higher raw material costs, this provides us with a meaningful opportunity to further expand EBITDA margin in the year ahead. Now let me turn the call over to John Corkrean to review our fourth quarter results in more detail and our outlook for 2023.

在經歷了 2 年前所未有的供應鏈中斷和原材料成本大幅上漲之後，這為我們提供了一個有意義的機會，可以在未來一年進一步擴大 EBITDA 利潤率。現在讓我把電話轉給 John Corkrean，讓他更詳細地回顧我們第四季度的業績和我們對 2023 年的展望。

Thank you, Celeste. I'll begin on Slide 5 with some additional financial details on the fourth quarter. For the quarter, revenue was up 7% versus the same period last year. Currency had a negative impact of 8.7%. Acquisitions increased revenue growth by 1.6%, and the extra week compared to last year positively impacted revenue growth by 7.5%.

謝謝你，塞萊斯特。我將從幻燈片 5 開始介紹第四季度的一些額外財務細節。本季度，收入與去年同期相比增長了 7%。貨幣產生了 8.7% 的負面影響。收購使收入增長 1.6%，與去年相比多出一周，對收入增長產生了 7.5% 的積極影響。

Adjusting for those items, organic revenue was up 6.4% with pricing having a favorable impact of 11.4% year-on-year in the quarter and volume down 5%, reflecting a slowdown in end market demand, particularly in Construction Adhesives and softness in China due to COVID-related lockdowns.

調整這些項目後，有機收入增長 6.4%，定價對本季度同比增長 11.4% 產生有利影響，銷量下降 5%，反映出終端市場需求放緩，尤其是建築粘合劑和中國的疲軟由於與 COVID 相關的封鎖。

Adjusted gross profit margin was 26.2%, down 90 basis points versus last year, as raw material inflation and lower volumes more than offset significantly higher pricing. Adjusted selling, general and administrative expense was down slightly year-on-year and adjusted SG&A as a percentage of revenue declined 130 basis points, reflecting strong pricing gains, lower variable compensation and overall good expense management.

調整後的毛利率為 26.2%，比去年下降 90 個基點，原因是原材料價格上漲和銷量下降抵消了價格大幅上漲的影響。調整後的銷售、一般和行政費用同比略有下降，調整後的 SG&A 佔收入的百分比下降 130 個基點，反映出強勁的定價收益、較低的可變薪酬和整體良好的費用管理。

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter of $141 million was up 5% versus last year, reflecting strong pricing actions, lower SG&A and the impact of the extra week, which more than offset significantly higher raw material costs and unfavorable foreign currency translation.

本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.41 億美元，比去年同期增長 5%，這反映出強勁的定價行為、較低的 SG&A 以及額外一周的影響，這大大抵消了原材料成本的顯著上漲和不利的外幣換算。

Adjusted earnings per share of $1.04 was down slightly versus the fourth quarter of 2021, driven by the unfavorable impact of foreign currency and significantly higher interest rates. Adjusting for unfavorable foreign exchange, which negatively impacted EPS by approximately $0.22 in the quarter, adjusted EPS was up 15% year-on-year.

調整後每股收益為 1.04 美元，與 2021 年第四季度相比略有下降，這是受外彙的不利影響和利率顯著上升的推動。調整不利外匯對本季度每股收益產生約 0.22 美元的負面影響後，調整後每股收益同比增長 15%。

Cash flow in the quarter was strong. Cash flow from operations of $208 million was up $156 million year-on-year, reflecting higher profit, reduced working capital requirements, a onetime gain on the maturity of a cross-currency swap and the impact of the extra week.

該季度的現金流強勁。運營產生的現金流為 2.08 億美元，同比增加 1.56 億美元，反映出利潤增加、營運資金需求減少、交叉貨幣互換到期的一次性收益以及額外一周的影響。

Our results for the full fiscal year were also very strong. Full year organic revenues grew 17% versus fiscal 2021, reflecting outstanding pricing execution. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14% year-on-year and adjusted EPS was up 15%.

我們整個財政年度的業績也非常強勁。與 2021 財年相比，全年有機收入增長了 17%，反映出出色的定價執行能力。調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長 14%，調整後的每股收益增長 15%。

With that, let me now turn to our guidance for the 2023 fiscal year. Our geographic and end market diversification is an asset in recessionary time periods and provides us with a meaningful buffer to the volatility in demand in any one particular market.

有了這個，讓我現在轉向我們對 2023 財年的指導。我們的地域和終端市場多元化是經濟衰退時期的一項資產，為我們提供了一個有意義的緩衝，以應對任何一個特定市場的需求波動。

As we assess the economic sensitivity of our portfolio with the conditions present in the marketplace today, more than half of our portfolio has little sensitivity and is well insulated from significant swings in demand. And only about 20% of our portfolio would be more highly influenced by economic conditions, but the drivers impacting recessionary sensitivity will generate different outcomes amongst the end markets.

當我們根據當今市場的情況評估我們的投資組合的經濟敏感性時，我們一半以上的投資組合幾乎沒有敏感性，並且很好地不受需求大幅波動的影響。我們的投資組合中只有約 20% 會受到經濟狀況的更大影響，但影響衰退敏感性的驅動因素將在終端市場中產生不同的結果。

Our diversification will serve us well as we manage through what we expect to be challenging economic conditions in 2023. Based on what we know today, we anticipate full year net revenue to be flat to down 3% versus 2022 and organic revenue to be up 2% to 4%. We expect foreign currency translation to negatively impact revenue by 3% to 4% versus 2022.

我們的多元化將為我們提供良好的服務，因為我們可以應對 2023 年充滿挑戰的經濟狀況。根據我們目前所知，我們預計全年淨收入與 2022 年相比持平或下降 3%，而有機收入將增長 2 % 至 4%。我們預計與 2022 年相比，外幣換算將對收入產生 3% 至 4% 的負面影響。

Fiscal year 2023 will be a 52-week year compared to a 53-week year in 2022, which will unfavorably impact year-on-year revenue growth by approximately 2 percentage points. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $580 million and $610 million, representing a 9% to 15% year-on-year increase, up 11% to 17%, adjusting for the extra week in 2022 as the benefits from net changes in prices and raw material costs and strong expense management more than offset unfavorable foreign exchange.

與 2022 年的 53 週相比，2023 財年將是 52 週的一年，這將對收入同比增長產生約 2 個百分點的不利影響。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 5.8 億美元至 6.1 億美元之間，同比增長 9% 至 15%，增長 11% 至 17%，調整為 2022 年多出的一周，因為價格淨變化和原材料成本和強有力的費用管理足以抵消不利的外匯。

We expect our 2023 core tax rate to be between 27% and 29% compared to our 2022 core tax rate of about 27%. We expect full year interest expense to be $115 million to $125 million, reflecting higher interest rates, and we expect average diluted share count to be about 55.5 million shares.

我們預計 2023 年的核心稅率將在 27% 至 29% 之間，而 2022 年的核心稅率約為 27%。我們預計全年利息支出為 1.15 億美元至 1.25 億美元，反映出更高的利率，我們預計平均攤薄後的股票數量約為 5550 萬股。

These assumptions result in full year adjusted earnings per share in a range of $4.15 to $4.55. Finally, we expect full year operating cash flow to be between $300 million and $350 million before approximately $120 million of capital expenditures.

這些假設導致全年調整後每股收益在 4.15 美元至 4.55 美元之間。最後，我們預計全年運營現金流在大約 1.2 億美元的資本支出之前將在 3 億美元至 3.5 億美元之間。

Based on the seasonality of the business, and the timing of working capital needs, we expect operating cash flow to be weighted to the second half of the year. All of this guidance reflects the fact that H.B. Fuller will have 1 less reporting week in fiscal 2023 compared to 2022. We estimate that extra week will have an unfavorable impact on full year revenues of approximately 2% compared with full year 2022 and an unfavorable impact on full year EBITDA of approximately $10 million versus 2022, all occurring in the fourth quarter.

基於業務的季節性和營運資金需求的時間，我們預計經營現金流將加權到下半年。所有這些指南都反映了 H.B.與 2022 年相比，富勒在 2023 財年的報告週將減少 1 個。我們估計，與 2022 年相比，額外的一周將對全年收入產生約 2% 的不利影響，並對全年 EBITDA 產生約 1000 萬美元的不利影響2022年，全部發生在第四季度。

Taking into consideration low construction demand in the first half of the year and continued disruptions in China as well as the typical seasonality of the business, we expect first quarter revenue to be down low to mid-single digits and to realize approximately 17% to 18% of full year EBITDA in the first quarter.

考慮到今年上半年的低建築需求和中國的持續中斷以及業務的典型季節性，我們預計第一季度收入將下降至中個位數，並實現約 17% 至 18%第一季度全年 EBITDA 的百分比。

Now let me turn the call back over to Celeste to wrap us up.

現在讓我把電話轉回 Celeste 讓我們結束。

Thank you, John. Since becoming CEO at the beginning of December, I have grown even more optimistic about our future. We have tremendous potential for continued organic growth and margin expansion, and I have confidence in our strategy and ability to achieve our long-term financial goals.

謝謝你，約翰。自從 12 月初成為 CEO 以來，我對我們的未來變得更加樂觀。我們擁有持續有機增長和利潤率擴張的巨大潛力，我對我們實現長期財務目標的戰略和能力充滿信心。

As we begin 2023, we do so having successfully expanded EBITDA margin sequentially over the last 3 consecutive quarters, and we are entering an environment that will be more conducive to further margin enhancement. We have many competitive advantages to leverage, particularly in the current economic environment in addition to our ability to innovate with customers to serve their needs.

在我們開始 2023 年之際，我們在過去連續三個季度成功地連續擴大了 EBITDA 利潤率，我們正在進入一個更有利於進一步提高利潤率的環境。我們有許多競爭優勢可以利用，特別是在當前的經濟環境下，此外我們還有能力與客戶一起創新以滿足他們的需求。

We have pricing discipline, robust product substitution capabilities and a demonstrated ability to execute. Each of the last 3 years has brought unique and extraordinary challenges, including a pandemic, a conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, unprecedented supply chain disruptions with raw material cost inflation and a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

我們有定價紀律、強大的產品替代能力和經證明的執行能力。過去 3 年中的每一年都帶來了獨特而非凡的挑戰，包括大流行病、俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的衝突、前所未有的供應鏈中斷以及原材料成本上漲以及美元的顯著走強。

And in each of the last 3 years, H.B. Fuller has stepped up to those challenges and delivered for our customers, our employees and our shareholders while consistently outperforming the competition. We expect 2023 to be no less challenging, but we are confident in our team's abilities and resolve. And we believe, based on the improvements that we've made in our business over the last several years and our ability to bring innovation to the diverse set of end markets we serve, that we are well positioned to continue to drive growth and expand margins while delivering outstanding cash flow. That concludes our prepared remarks for today. Operator, please open the line for questions.

在過去 3 年的每一年裡，H.B. Fuller 已經迎接這些挑戰，為我們的客戶、我們的員工和我們的股東提供服務，同時始終超越競爭對手。我們預計 2023 年的挑戰不會減少，但我們對團隊的能力和決心充滿信心。我們相信，基於過去幾年我們在業務上取得的進步以及我們為所服務的不同終端市場帶來創新的能力，我們有能力繼續推動增長和擴大利潤同時提供出色的現金流。我們今天準備好的發言到此結束。接線員，請打開問題線路。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的第一個問題來自 Ghansham Panjabi 和 Baird。

Celeste, congrats again on your new role.

Celeste，再次祝賀你的新角色。

Thanks, Ghansham.

謝謝，加沙姆。

Yes. So I guess destocking seems to be a pretty common theme so far this earnings season. You called out Construction Adhesives, which I guess, fits with intuition. But what about the other segments, HHC and even EA?

是的。因此，我猜到目前為止，去庫存似乎是本財報季的一個相當普遍的主題。你叫出了建築粘合劑，我猜這符合直覺。但是其他部分，HHC 甚至 EA 呢？

And the reason I ask is, many of the CPG companies that are starting to report, they're reporting pretty significant declines in volumes as well. So I'm just curious as to the risk associated with destocking becoming more pronounced for the other segments as well?

我問的原因是，許多開始報告的 CPG 公司，他們報告的數量也有相當大的下降。所以我很好奇與去庫存相關的風險對於其他細分市場也變得更加明顯？

Yes. That's a great question, Ghansham. It absolutely is. Certainly, in HHC in the fourth quarter, we saw some significant destocking. And it's a little unusual in that CPG in the consumer product business, but yes, that absolutely is the case.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，Ghansham。絕對是。當然，在第四季度的 HHC，我們看到了一些顯著的去庫存。在消費品業務中，CPG 有點不尋常，但確實如此。

Got it. And what about EA?

知道了。 EA 呢？

Not so much there. Interestingly enough, now we did see our volumes impacted in EA because of this slowdown in China. Over Q2 and Q3, we saw mid-single-digit increases in growth in China. That was not the case in the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter was flat.

那裡沒有那麼多。有趣的是，現在我們確實看到我們在 EA 的銷量受到了中國經濟放緩的影響。在第二季度和第三季度，我們看到中國的增長出現了中等個位數的增長。第四季度情況並非如此。第四季度持平。

And our EA business, certainly, that took some wind out of their sales as it relates to volume, but we did not see big destocking actions in EA.

當然，我們的 EA 業務在與銷量相關的情況下從他們的銷售中吸取了一些風，但我們沒有看到 EA 有大規模的去庫存行動。

Got you. And then maybe a question for John on the EBITDA bridge between fiscal year '22 and '23. I know you gave some parameters about the loss of the week and FX, but what about the other components in terms of volumes and price cost, et cetera?

明白了然後可能要問 John 關於 22 財年和 23 財年之間 EBITDA 橋樑的問題。我知道你給出了一些關於本週損失和外彙的參數，但其他部分在數量和價格成本等方面又如何呢？

Yes. So I think what we had said earlier, Ghansham, is we have got -- given our pricing actions in 2022, we've got a very nice pricing carryover into 2023. We are seeing raw materials start to ease. You have to kind of look at those 2 things together.

是的。所以我認為我們之前說過的，Ghansham，我們已經得到了——鑑於我們在 2022 年的定價行動，我們有一個非常好的定價結轉到 2023 年。我們看到原材料開始放鬆。你必須把這兩件事放在一起看。

And that's really what's driving the majority of really all of the profit growth. We estimate that the pricing carryover and raw materials easing that's $130 million to $160 million of profit growth for us in 2023. And that offsets the headwinds we have related to probably a little softer volume obviously, unfavorable foreign exchange, the extra week and kind of normal inflation on wages and other things.

這才是真正推動大部分利潤增長的真正原因。我們估計，到 2023 年，定價結轉和原材料的減少將為我們帶來 1.3 億至 1.6 億美元的利潤增長。這抵消了我們所面臨的不利因素，這些不利因素可能與銷量明顯下降、不利的外匯、額外的一周和某種工資和其他方面的正常通貨膨脹。

And that's probably about $80 million. That's kind of how do we get to that bridge.

這可能是大約 8000 萬美元。這就是我們如何到達那座橋。

The next question is from Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mike Harrison。

Happy New Year. I wanted to maybe ask a little bit of a different question on the earnings cadence. If I do the math correctly, it looks like you're kind of pointing to $100 million to $110 million of EBITDA for the first quarter.

新年快樂。我想問一些關於盈利節奏的不同問題。如果我算對了，你似乎指的是第一季度的 EBITDA 為 1 億至 1.1 億美元。

And I guess I'm just trying to understand kind of what gives you confidence that you're going to -- it means that the rest of the year has to show pretty meaningful growth. Is -- are you seeing the raw material declines happening as we speak? Just maybe talk about the confidence level of better earnings as we get through the rest of the year. And I guess, is that mostly driven by raw material tailwinds?

而且我想我只是想了解是什麼讓你有信心你要去 - 這意味著今年剩下的時間必須表現出非常有意義的增長。是 - 你是否看到我們說話時原材料下降？在今年餘下的時間裡，也許可以談談對更好收益的信心水平。我想，這主要是由原材料順風推動的嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Mike. So let me -- you're correct, to start with, in your estimation of what EBITDA looks like in the first quarter. We did guide to 17% to 18% of our full year EBITDA, which is -- would be pretty flat with last year. That 17% to 18% is little lower than what we would normally see in the first quarter.

是的。謝謝你的問題，邁克。所以讓我 - 首先，你對第一季度 EBITDA 的估計是正確的。我們確實指導了我們全年 EBITDA 的 17% 到 18%，這與去年持平。 17% 至 18% 略低於我們通常在第一季度看到的水平。

Usually, we're around 20% of full year EBITDA. And it is this sort of, let's call it, kind of fourth quarter hangover. We are still seeing -- in our P1, which was December, we saw a December that still looked a lot like Q4.

通常，我們大約是全年 EBITDA 的 20%。這就是這種，讓我們稱之為第四季度的宿醉。我們仍然看到 - 在 12 月的 P1 中，我們看到 12 月看起來仍然很像第四季度。

However, with the beginning of the new year, we're starting to see things pick up a little bit. As to your question about raw materials, yes, we're still -- raw materials are really just plateauing. We were pretty flattish Q3 versus Q4 on raws.

然而，隨著新年伊始，我們開始看到情況有所好轉。至於你關於原材料的問題，是的，我們仍然 - 原材料真的只是停滯不前。與原始數據相比，我們在第三季度與第四季度相當持平。

And if you look at Q4 this year versus prior year, we're still up. So we're moving towards that inflection point. We expect that will hit us during the current year. But it's definitely not been here yet. Do you want to elaborate on that, John?

如果你看看今年第四季度與去年相比，我們仍然在上升。所以我們正朝著那個拐點前進。我們預計這將在今年打擊我們。但它肯定還沒有來過這裡。你想詳細說明一下嗎，約翰？

Yes, that's exactly right. I mean, yes, raw -- the raw dynamics will be the big impact. The other impact I'd point out is exchange, right? Exchange -- the dollar strengthened throughout 2022. I think in my prepared remarks, we indicated that it had something like a $0.20 impact unfavorable in the fourth quarter.

是的，完全正確。我的意思是，是的，原始的——原始的動力將產生巨大的影響。我要指出的另一個影響是交換，對嗎？匯率——美元在整個 2022 年都在走強。我認為在我準備好的發言中，我們表示它在第四季度產生了大約 0.20 美元的不利影響。

So we will annualize as we get through 2023. It will become less of a headwind if exchange rates stay where they are, it will actually be a little bit of a tailwind. So those are the big dynamics, I would say, Mike, the raw material dynamic and foreign exchange.

因此，我們將在 2023 年進行年化。如果匯率保持在原位，逆風將變得不那麼明顯，實際上會有點順風。所以那些是大動態，我想說，邁克，原材料動態和外匯。

Perfect. And then in terms of the Engineering Adhesives business, obviously, very nice performance there. Was there anything unusual or maybe more onetime in nature that drove that margin strength that we might worry about reversing at some point in '23. I guess maybe my way of asking what you expect margins to look like in that business as we get into next year.

完美的。然後就工程粘合劑業務而言，顯然，那裡的表現非常好。自然界中是否有任何不尋常的或可能更多的東西推動了我們可能擔心在 23 年的某個時候逆轉的利潤率強度。我想也許我的方式是問你對我們明年進入該業務的利潤率的期望。

Yes. We are really excited about our EA business. Aspirationally in that business, we have continued to work the portfolio. We continue to drive the portfolio in that business, particularly to those highly specified applications, which do carry higher EBITDA margins.

是的。我們對我們的 EA 業務感到非常興奮。在該業務中，我們一直致力於投資組合。我們繼續推動該業務的投資組合，特別是那些具有更高 EBITDA 利潤率的高度指定的應用程序。

So to answer your question, no, there was nothing onetime. There was nothing temporary that occurred there. That was -- it's by design and it's starting to work. So that's the good news. I think as we proceed through the course of 2023, again, EA is a business that is influenced heavily by China. We're forecasting -- in our outlook, we're forecasting kind of sluggish growth in China for the first half. So we'll see that business accelerate over the course of the year.

所以要回答你的問題，不，曾經什麼都沒有。那裡沒有發生任何暫時的事情。那是——它是設計使然的，它開始起作用了。這是個好消息。我認為，隨著我們在 2023 年繼續前進，EA 將再次成為一家深受中國影響的企業。我們預測 - 在我們的展望中，我們預測上半年中國增長緩慢。因此，我們將看到該業務在這一年中加速發展。

All right. And if I can sneak one more in. On pricing, it looks like if I do the math, that the 2-year stack, if I look at Q3 and Q4, were both up around 25%. And so my question is, did you get any sequential pricing? Or was pricing pretty flat in Q4 versus Q3?

好的。如果我能再偷偷加入一個。關於定價，如果我計算一下，如果我看一下第三季度和第四季度，2 年期的堆棧都上漲了 25% 左右。所以我的問題是，你有沒有得到任何順序定價？還是第四季度的定價與第三季度相當持平？

Yes. We got $50 million of price in Q4, Mike. And I think as we move forward, I think it's important for 2023, especially early in the year like this, that we really start talking about price and raw materials as one big bucket, as John described, where we are -- we believe there's $130 million to $160 million of value in that bucket.

是的。邁克，我們在第四季度獲得了 5000 萬美元的價格。而且我認為隨著我們的前進，我認為這對 2023 年很重要，尤其是在今年年初，我們真的開始將價格和原材料作為一個大桶來討論，正如約翰所描述的那樣，我們所處的位置 - 我們相信有該桶中的價值為 1.3 億至 1.6 億美元。

There's going to be lots and lots of puts and calls. Our top 25 raw materials make up less than 20% of our raw material cost. And we've got pricing actions. We're still increasing price in some cases where we have raw materials still increasing. We've got new product introductions that also kind of makes that a little murky.

將會有很多很多的看跌期權和看漲期權。我們排名前 25 位的原材料占我們原材料成本的不到 20%。我們有定價行動。在某些原材料仍在增加的情況下，我們仍在提高價格。我們有新產品介紹，這也有點模糊。

So collectively, regardless of what happens with raws or price, we think the 2 of those will generate the incremental EBITDA as we've described. If raws don't come down, then we're going to have to continue to raise price. We're a company that's demonstrated the ability to do that, and we'll do that.

因此，總的來說，無論原材料或價格發生什麼變化，我們認為其中兩個將產生我們所描述的增量 EBITDA。如果原料不降下來，那麼我們將不得不繼續提高價格。我們是一家證明有能力做到這一點的公司，我們會做到這一點。

If raws do come down, it indicates that we're in a mildly at least recessionary environment. And that's a great place for this business because that's where our customers need us more than ever. We really can enable them at times like that to change substrates in their end products, which is going to save them a lot more money than changing their glue.

如果原始數據確實下降，則表明我們處於至少溫和的衰退環境中。這對這項業務來說是個好地方，因為這是我們的客戶比以往任何時候都更需要我們的地方。我們真的可以讓他們在這樣的時候改變他們最終產品的基材，這比改變他們的膠水能為他們節省更多的錢。

So we feel optimistic about the year ahead, and I just want to like have you start to think about price and raw material in one big category as we move forward.

所以我們對未來一年感到樂觀，我只是想讓你在我們前進的過程中開始考慮一個大類別的價格和原材料。

The next question is from Vincent Anderson with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Vincent Anderson。

Yes. I wanted to maybe dig in on that last comment that you made, Celeste, because it really feels like you have sort of a dual strategy where ideally, you're an important technical partner to your customers and trying to increase the value add of your portfolio.

是的。 Celeste，我想深入了解你最後的評論，因為感覺你有某種雙重戰略，理想情況下，你是客戶的重要技術合作夥伴，並試圖增加你的附加值文件夾。

But in an environment like this, you're also trying to maintain a portfolio that offers customers that maybe are prioritizing cost and opportunity to trade down. But hopefully, without you suffering a margin hit.

但在這樣的環境中，您還試圖維護一個投資組合，為可能優先考慮成本和降價交易機會的客戶提供服務。但希望您不會遭受利潤損失。

So I'm just trying to get a sense for, first, how have conversations with customers drifted between those 2 types of commercial interactions recently? And do you have a sense for how much of your portfolio you feel like today you could protect with a lower-cost product before suffering either a margin mix hit or just having to decide whether or not to participate at all?

所以我只是想了解，首先，最近與客戶的對話如何在這兩種商業互動之間轉移？在遭受利潤率組合衝擊或不得不決定是否參與之前，您是否知道今天可以用低成本產品保護您的投資組合中的多少？

Yes. I think I chose to highlight there kind of our role in enabling customers to be able to reduce the total cost of their product. We enable that through our technical expertise, most certainly. If someone really wants to buy a lower-cost adhesive, we have the raw material substitution capabilities and a number of alternative technologies to be able to provide them as well a lower-cost adhesive, something they can save money on and something that's lower cost to ourselves as well and helps us preserve our margins.

是的。我想我選擇強調我們在使客戶能夠降低其產品總成本方面的作用。毫無疑問，我們通過我們的技術專長實現了這一點。如果有人真的想購買成本更低的粘合劑，我們擁有原材料替代能力和許多替代技術，能夠為他們提供成本更低的粘合劑，這是他們可以省錢的東西，也是成本更低的東西對我們自己也是如此，並幫助我們保持利潤。

So there's a lot of ways that we interact with the customer to help them achieve their goals. I also don't want to minimize the fact that most of our conversations with customers revolve around innovation. We are very focused on bringing new technology, new products to the market.

因此，我們可以通過多種方式與客戶互動，幫助他們實現目標。我也不想低估我們與客戶的大部分對話都圍繞創新展開的事實。我們非常專注於將新技術、新產品推向市場。

We've got 30 different market segments, thousands and thousands of different customers. And so it's hard for me to generalize directionally if everyone's going in one matter or another. That's -- it's really not the case. It's -- every customer we treat very differently. And our ongoing focus is on innovation first.

我們有 30 個不同的細分市場，成千上萬的不同客戶。因此，如果每個人都在做一件事或另一件事，我很難有方向性地概括。事實並非如此。這是——我們對待每一位客戶的方式都非常不同。我們持續關注的重點是創新。

Okay. Fair enough. That's helpful. And then if I'm remembering correctly, you've had some pretty important wins in HHC. Thinking specifically around like consumer beverage and maybe some e-commerce packaging automation technology that you're participating in, could you maybe give an update on the cadence of those contributions to HHC growth and maybe just in general terms, assuming those sales take a little longer to ramp up?

好的。很公平。這很有幫助。然後，如果我沒記錯的話，你在 HHC 中取得了一些非常重要的勝利。具體考慮消費飲料和您正在參與的一些電子商務包裝自動化技術，您能否更新這些對 HHC 增長的貢獻的節奏，也許只是一般而言，假設這些銷售需要一點點需要更長的時間來提升？

Yes. Let me just speak generally about some of those wins because we have -- that HHC business has really done an amazing job in that kind of solid, steady CPG space to bring new products to market. We've got our sustainable packaging adhesives, which have been really a very big -- been a big hit with our packaging customers, something very unique that enables them to be able to make their products more recyclable.

是的。讓我大致談談其中的一些勝利，因為我們有——HHC 業務在那種穩固、穩定的 CPG 領域確實做得非常出色，可以將新產品推向市場。我們已經有了可持續的包裝粘合劑，它真的非常大 - 對我們的包裝客戶來說是一個巨大的打擊，一些非常獨特的東西使他們能夠使他們的產品更可回收。

We have had a big hit with our new beverage labeling technology to replace casing that enables recyclable bottles to be returned and cleaned more effectively. So we've seen a lot of share take in beverage label as a consequence. Those are just 2. When you think of others, John, you...

我們的新飲料標籤技術取得了巨大成功，該技術取代了外殼，使可回收瓶子能夠更有效地回收和清潔。因此，我們看到飲料標籤的份額很大。這些只是 2。當你想到其他人時，約翰，你...

Hygiene really had some...

衛生真的有點...

Yes, we did just win a big application in the hygiene business as well for a fairly unique characteristics that we can bring to an application there. So yes, that is just a constant ongoing focus for us, Vincent. And we're seeing those wins really support not just our HHC business, but our other businesses as well.

是的，我們剛剛贏得了衛生行業的一個大應用，也因為我們可以為那裡的應用帶來相當獨特的特性。所以，是的，這只是我們持續關注的焦點，文森特。我們看到這些勝利不僅真正支持了我們的 HHC 業務，也支持了我們的其他業務。

Al right. Sure. No, that's helpful. I guess the way I'm trying to frame all of that then is over the next year or 2, is HHC still a kind of slow steady business just given the number of wins that you've piled up there?

好吧。當然。不，那很有幫助。我想我試圖構建所有這些的方式是在接下來的一兩年內，考慮到你在那裡積累的勝利數量，HHC 是否仍然是一種緩慢穩定的業務？

Yes. So I think the objective with that business is get -- is to get to mid-teens EBITDA margin. That's a good level of profitability for that business. And it's continued to grow kind of mid-single digit, high single-digit, over time.

是的。所以我認為該業務的目標是獲得 - 達到十幾歲的 EBITDA 利潤率。對於該業務來說，這是一個很好的盈利水平。隨著時間的推移，它繼續以中個位數、高個位數的速度增長。

So we're going to continue to take market share in that space, and we're going to continue to grow through innovation. I think if you're anticipating kind of mid-single-digit, high single digit growth in the HHC business, you're probably spot on.

因此，我們將繼續在該領域佔據市場份額，我們將繼續通過創新實現增長。我認為，如果您預計 HHC 業務將出現中個位數、高個位數的增長，那麼您可能就對了。

Okay. Excellent. And then I just wanted to sneak in a quick one, just checking in on a couple of markets in the EA that we haven't talked about. It looks like Chinese solar cell numbers have been really strong this year, but you mentioned glass and auto and not solar. So I just wanted to see how that was going. And then same question, but on electronics.

好的。出色的。然後我只是想快速了解一下，只是檢查 EA 中我們尚未討論的幾個市場。看起來今年中國的太陽能電池數量非常強勁，但你提到了玻璃和汽車，而不是太陽能。所以我只是想看看情況如何。然後是同樣的問題，但關於電子產品。

Yes. The solar story is really exciting. What we are -- our solar business is doing well, and that is a business that we're starting to see migrate around the world. So we are working with big customers to take -- leverage our expertise that we have in Asia, in solar, and bring it to other parts of the world.

是的。太陽能的故事真的很令人興奮。我們是什麼——我們的太陽能業務做得很好，這是我們開始看到在世界範圍內遷移的業務。因此，我們正在與大客戶合作，利用我們在亞洲、太陽能方面的專業知識，並將其帶到世界其他地區。

And I think that's a great example of a way that we are very strong, being able to take technology and work with big customers and bring it to new regions successfully and evolve it for the unique circumstances in those regions is something we're very good at. Do you want to add something there, John?

我認為這是我們非常強大的一個很好的例子，能夠利用技術並與大客戶合作，成功地將它帶到新的地區，並根據這些地區的獨特情況發展它，這是我們非常擅長的事情在。你想在那裡添加一些東西嗎，約翰？

Yes. I think just to amplify that a little bit, we called out auto and insulated glass. Auto has been a huge growth story for our EA business, particularly electronic vehicles. And we see that as a continued area that we should be able to drive outsized growth. And insulated glass, it's really an innovation play and even despite some softening in parts of construction and their products go into construction, they continue to perform very well.

是的。我想只是為了稍微放大一點，我們呼籲汽車和絕緣玻璃。汽車一直是我們 EA 業務的巨大增長點，尤其是電動汽車。我們認為，作為一個持續的領域，我們應該能夠推動超額增長。而絕緣玻璃，這確實是一種創新遊戲，即使在部分建築和他們的產品進入建築時有所軟化，它們仍然表現得非常好。

Electronics has always been a strong performer. It's been a little more -- it's been a little lower growth still growing, but because of chip shortages and some of the other challenges. And then in the new energy space, that continues to perform well, and we're seeing the opportunity there from geographic expansion.

電子產品一直表現強勁。它已經多了一點 - 它的增長速度有所降低，但仍在增長，但由於芯片短缺和其他一些挑戰。然後在新能源領域，它繼續表現良好，我們從地域擴張中看到了機會。

It's historically been a business that's been sort of China-centric. And we have a strong presence there, but we are really in a competitive advantage as that industry starts to globalize because we can reach customers more effectively in other geographies than a lot of our competitors. And we have already started to see the benefit of that.

從歷史上看，它一直是一家以中國為中心的企業。我們在那裡擁有強大的影響力，但隨著該行業開始全球化，我們確實處於競爭優勢，因為我們可以比許多競爭對手更有效地接觸其他地區的客戶。我們已經開始看到這樣做的好處。

Our next question is from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Celeste, on the Q1 guidance and the range itself, what could drive the upper and lower ends of that guidance range being achieved? And by segment, how do you expect the segments to perform within that range in Q1?

Celeste，關於 Q1 指導和範圍本身，什麼可以推動實現該指導範圍的上限和下限？按細分市場劃分，您預計這些細分市場在第一季度的表現如何？

Yes, I think that -- the range we've expressed there is definitely going to be subject to what happens with volume.

是的，我認為——我們在那裡表達的範圍肯定會受到交易量的影響。

Destocking, we were anticipating, we'll be seeing destocking in HHC complete in Q1 with Construction Adhesives. It's going to be interesting to watch that one. I think we're going to start seeing the restocking kind of February, March time frame. What will be interesting is what level are we restocking to. That remains the question in the construction business. So I'd say -- I don't know, John, do you want to add more color?

去庫存，我們預計，我們將在第一季度看到 HHC 使用建築粘合劑完成去庫存。看那個會很有趣。我認為我們將開始看到 2 月、3 月的補貨。有趣的是我們要補貨到什麼水平。這仍然是建築行業的問題。所以我想說——我不知道，約翰，你想添加更多顏色嗎？

Yes, I'll just kind of maybe help David with how that may look in terms of our different businesses. So Celeste's comments on China, China recovers more quickly, that could be an upside. If we start to see other economies, maybe start to show a little bit more bounce back from what was a very slow Q4, that could be opportunities.

是的，我可能會幫助大衛了解我們不同業務的情況。所以塞萊斯特對中國的評論，中國恢復得更快，這可能是一個好處。如果我們開始看到其他經濟體，也許開始從非常緩慢的第四季度開始顯示出更多的反彈，那可能就是機會。

As you think about the core -- that guidance for the quarter and how that looks by our GBUs, we think HHC will continue to be very steady, right? EA, which has more of a China exposure will probably be a little more impacted than HHC in terms of slower results.

當您考慮核心時——本季度的指導以及我們的 GBU 看起來如何，我們認為 HHC 將繼續非常穩定，對嗎？就較慢的結果而言，在中國有更多風險敞口的 EA 可能會比 HHC 受到更大的影響。

And then construction, as Celeste indicated, we think it will take a little longer than the first quarter to see the recovery there. So that's kind of the direction we would see those 3 GBUs going in the first quarter.

然後是建設，正如 Celeste 所指出的，我們認為需要比第一季度更長的時間才能看到那裡的複蘇。這就是我們在第一季度看到這 3 個 GBU 的方向。

No, very helpful. Appreciate that. And guys, just on the cost issue, if you go back to beginning of 2021, how much have your raw material costs increased by? And how much do you expect them to fall by in '23, just raw material costs?

不，非常有幫助。感謝。伙計們，就成本問題而言，如果回到 2021 年初，你們的原材料成本增加了多少？你預計它們在 23 年會下降多少，僅原材料成本？

Yes. So they've increased by $800 million. But -- and when you ask how much should we expect them to fall? It's a great question, right? And that's why I continue to go back to wanting to bucket price and raw material cost into one big category for the upcoming year.

是的。所以他們增加了 8 億美元。但是——當你問我們應該期望它們下跌多少時？這是一個很好的問題，對吧？這就是為什麼我繼續回到想要在來年將價格和原材料成本歸為一個大類的原因。

It's very hard to assume how much those materials are going to come down, particularly because there are so many. We're monitoring 4,000 of them at any one point in time and watching for movements. And none of them is really -- none of them is significant. So that's a great question, and that's why what we've decided is, regardless of what happens, whether raws come down significantly and we benefit by, of course, lower raw material costs, but also being able to support our customers in a recessionary time, or if raw materials don't come down or they move up a little, we'll pass through price increases.

很難假設這些材料會下降多少，尤其是因為數量太多。我們在任何一個時間點都在監視其中的 4,000 個，並觀察他們的動向。而且它們都不是真的——它們都不重要。所以這是一個很好的問題，這就是為什麼我們的決定是，無論發生什麼情況，原材料是否會大幅下降，我們當然會因降低原材料成本而受益，但也能夠在經濟衰退時為我們的客戶提供支持時間長了，或者原材料不降或者漲一點，我們就會通過漲價。

So I hate to speculate on what kind of reduction we'll see. And I think the important thing is that the company is preparing itself no matter what happens.

所以我不想猜測我們會看到什麼樣的減少。而且我認為重要的是，無論發生什麼情況，公司都在做好準備。

The next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan Chase.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

If your prices didn't move from the end of fiscal '22, how much would your average prices be higher in fiscal '23? Is it 3%? Or is it more or less than that?

如果您的價格從 22 財年末開始沒有變化，那麼 23 財年的平均價格會高多少？是3%嗎？還是比這更多或更少？

It's about 4% to 6%.

大約是 4% 到 6%。

4% to 6%. Okay...

4% 到 6%。好的...

Again, it's murky water because there are so many -- there's indices, we have new product introductions, we have -- I mean, it's a challenging question. And so, again, I want to remind you to -- let's go back to looking at that overall price and raw material cost bucket as one.

同樣，這是渾水，因為有太多——有指數，我們有新產品介紹，我們有——我的意思是，這是一個具有挑戰性的問題。因此，我想再次提醒您——讓我們回過頭來將整體價格和原材料成本作為一個整體來看待。

Okay. Your nonrecurring charges this year were about $40 million. Is that a good number for next year?

好的。你們今年的非經常性費用約為 4000 萬美元。這是明年的好數字嗎？

Why don't you take that? Why don't you take that one, John?

你為什麼不接受那個？你為什麼不拿那個，約翰？

Sure. It's a little bit on the higher side, Jeff. I would say we had a couple of items that were kind of unusual and noncash actually that probably represented about $10 million between a pension curtailment and a noncash charge on a legal entity consolidation.

當然。這有點偏高，傑夫。我想說我們有一些不尋常的非現金項目，實際上可能代表在養老金削減和法人實體合併的非現金費用之間大約 1000 萬美元。

So I think the number will probably be lower than that, probably between $20 million and $30 million, kind of representing kind of those same areas as far as the M&A-related activity, our SAP implementation and probably some -- finalization related to some restructurings we've done.

所以我認為這個數字可能會低於這個數字，可能在 2000 萬到 3000 萬美元之間，代表了與併購相關的活動、我們的 SAP 實施以及可能與某些重組相關的最終確定等相同領域我們已經完成了。

In the fourth quarter, your -- in your working capital statement, your other assets were a cash inflow of $46.5 million. In the third quarter, they were -- for the 9 months, they were a cash outflow of $40 million. So there was an $86 million or $87 million positive cash flow change from other assets in the fourth quarter. What was that?

在第四季度，你的 - 在你的營運資金報表中，你的其他資產是 4650 萬美元的現金流入。第三季度，前 9 個月，現金流出 4000 萬美元。因此，第四季度其他資產產生了 8600 萬美元或 8700 萬美元的正現金流量變化。那是什麼？

Yes. I think you got to look at the fourth quarter, but you're exactly right, Jeff. And I mentioned it in our prepared remarks, we did have a onetime gain on maturity of a cross-currency swap and the impact that you're seeing on other cash flow is almost entirely related to that. So that's nonrepeating. Even if you take that away, it was a very strong cash flow quarter, driven by improving working capital and good profit growth.

是的。我認為你必須看看第四節，但你是完全正確的，傑夫。我在準備好的評論中提到過，我們確實在交叉貨幣掉期到期時獲得了一次性收益，你看到的對其他現金流的影響幾乎完全與此相關。所以這是不重複的。即使你把它去掉，在營運資本改善和良好的利潤增長的推動下，這是一個非常強勁的現金流季度。

How big was the cross-currency swap gain?

交叉貨幣掉期收益有多大？

It was about $50 million.

這大約是 5000 萬美元。

$50 million?

5000萬美元？

Yes. It was about $50 million.

是的。這大約是 5000 萬美元。

Was the engineering volume growth in the quarter above 3%?

本季度的工程量增長是否超過 3%？

It was right about that. It was very near that.

這是對的。它非常接近那個。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our next question is from Eric Petrie with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Eric Petrie。

How much of your construction exposure is new construction versus repair and remodel? I'm sure there's probably differences between flooring, roofing and insulated glass.

您的建築風險有多少是新建築與維修和改造？我敢肯定地板、屋頂和隔熱玻璃之間可能存在差異。

Yes. So if you look at our portfolio, about 9% of our businesses in new -- sorry, 14% -- sorry, less than 15% of our business. I've got to remember your question. Less than 15% of our business is in new construction and then we've got some additional business in the repair and remodel. I think that's what you're asking.

是的。所以如果你看看我們的投資組合，我們大約 9% 的業務是新的——抱歉，14%——抱歉，不到我們業務的 15%。我必須記住你的問題。我們只有不到 15% 的業務是在新建築中，然後我們在維修和改造方面還有一些額外的業務。我想這就是你要問的。

Yes. And just -- and when Celeste quotes those numbers, that would include our Construction Adhesives business as well as our other businesses in EA that are construction oriented like insulated glass windows. So it's -- as Celeste said, kind of all in across the whole portfolio, it's a little less than 15% and then a little -- and then repair and remodel would be similarly sized, but actually a little less than that.

是的。只是 - 當 Celeste 引用這些數字時，這將包括我們的建築粘合劑業務以及我們在 EA 中的其他業務，這些業務以建築為導向，如絕緣玻璃窗。所以它——正如 Celeste 所說，在整個投資組合中，它略低於 15%，然後是一點點——然後修復和改造的規模將相似，但實際上略低於此。

Yes, and a little countercyclical.

是的，有點反週期。

Helpful. And then just as you turn leverage kind of to the 3x and below, H.B. Fuller has been a consolidator in the industry. How do you see it, Celeste, that returning cash back to shareholders versus M&A?

有幫助。然後就在您將槓桿率調至 3 倍及以下時，H.B.富勒一直是該行業的整合者。 Celeste，你如何看待將現金返還給股東而不是併購？

Yes. So we have a target to hit, 3x net debt-to-EBITDA leverage. We're very serious about that target. And we're progressing nicely along the path to get there.

是的。因此，我們的目標是達到 3 倍的淨債務與 EBITDA 槓桿率。我們對這個目標非常認真。我們正在沿著通往那裡的道路順利前進。

Yes. So we should be going below 3x debt to EBITDA in 2023, and would like to stay in that kind of 2.5 to 3x range. Eric, I think there's -- I think if you look at our strategy around M&A, there's a lot of consolidation opportunity. We've got a robust pipeline for M&A.

是的。因此，我們應該在 2023 年將債務與 EBITDA 的比例降至 3 倍以下，並希望保持在 2.5 到 3 倍的範圍內。埃里克，我認為有——我認為如果你看看我們圍繞併購的戰略，就會發現很多整合機會。我們有一個強大的併購管道。

It's mainly very small bolt-on deals, which have worked very well for us. So we would expect that, that would be the use of most of the excess cash to sort of keep us in that targeted capital structure range if we were to move below 2.5x or we would look at share repurchase, depending on where the stock price is.

這主要是非常小的補強交易，對我們來說效果很好。所以我們預計，如果我們要低於 2.5 倍，那將是使用大部分多餘現金來讓我們保持在目標資本結構範圍內，或者我們會考慮股票回購，具體取決於股價是。

But we feel like that the M&A pipeline is robust enough to really be the use of cash for us as it relates to maintaining our target capital structure.

但我們覺得併購管道足夠強大，可以真正為我們使用現金，因為它與維持我們的目標資本結構有關。

We have no further questions. At this time, we'll turn it over to Celeste Mastin, Chief Executive Officer, for any closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。此時，我們將把它交給首席執行官 Celeste Mastin，聽取任何結束語。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to interacting with you in the future. Take care.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在未來與您互動。小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。