Fortive Corp (FTV) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

My name is Kristina, and I will be your conference facilitator this afternoon. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Fortive Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call.

我叫克里斯蒂娜，我將擔任今天下午的會議主持人。此時，我謹歡迎大家參加 Fortive 公司 2023 年第四季和全年獲利結果電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Elena Rosman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Rosman, you may begin your conference.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁埃琳娜·羅斯曼女士。羅斯曼女士，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, Kristina, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call. With us today are Jim Lico, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chuck McLaughlin, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We represent certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. Information required by Regulation G are available on the Investors section of our website at fortive.com. Our statements on period-to-period increases or decreases refer to the year-over-year comparisons unless otherwise specified.

謝謝克里斯蒂娜，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆·利科 (Jim Lico)；以及我們的高級副總裁兼財務長查克·麥克勞克林 (Chuck McLaughlin)。我們在今天的電話會議上代表了某些非公認會計準則財務指標。 G 條例要求的資訊可在我們網站 fortive.com 的投資者部分取得。除非另有說明，我們對同期增減的表述均指同比比較。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, including statements regarding events or developments that we expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and the actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make here today. Information regarding these risk factors is available in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim Lico.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們預期或預計未來將或可能發生的事件或發展的聲明。這些前瞻性陳述面臨許多風險，實際結果可能與我們今天在此做出的任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。有關這些風險因素的資訊可在我們向SEC 提交的文件中找到，包括我們截至2022 年12 月31 日的年度10-K 表格年度報告。這些前瞻性陳述僅代表截至其發布之日的情況，我們不承擔任何責任。承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。這樣，我會將電話轉給吉姆·利科。

Thanks, Elena. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'll begin on Slide 3. Fortive delivered outstanding operating performance again in 2023 through our proven formula for value creation. Our transformed portfolio of businesses delivering consistent through-cycle performance reflecting a more durable company with mid-single-digit core growth in 2023 despite a mixed macro environment. Strong execution by our teams drove another year of record margins with adjusted gross margins now approaching 60% and adjusted operating margins nearing 26%.

謝謝，埃琳娜。大家好，感謝您加入我們。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。Fortive 透過我們經過驗證的價值創造公式，在 2023 年再次實現了出色的營運績效。我們轉型後的業務組合提供了一致的整個週期業績，反映出儘管宏觀環境好壞參半，公司仍將在 2023 年實現中個位數核心成長。我們團隊的強勁執行力推動利潤率又創歷史新高，調整後毛利率現已接近 60%，調整後營業利潤率接近 26%。

Throughout 2023, we focused on unleashing the full power of FBS, reflected by record participation in Kaizen events, including our largest ever CEO Kaizen week. The results of these Kaizen's were tremendous, including an average of 50% productivity and 50% lead time conversion improvements. Our industry-leading free cash flow generation funded accretive capital deployment, including our best year executing on bolt-on acquisitions, accelerating our growth strategy across all 3 of our segments. We also opportunistically bought back shares and increased our dividend, enhancing shareholder returns. In summary, we remain committed to our strategy and its success is evident given the consistency of our results, which I'll highlight on Slide 4.

在整個 2023 年，我們致力於充分發揮 FBS 的力量，這體現在對 Kaizen 活動創紀錄的參與度上，其中包括我們有史以來規模最大的 CEO Kaizen 週。這些 Kaizen 的成果是巨大的，包括平均 50% 的生產力和 50% 的交貨時間轉換改善。我們業界領先的自由現金流產生為增值資本部署提供了資金，包括我們執行補強收購的最佳年份，加速了我們所有三個細分市場的成長策略。我們也趁機回購股票並增加股息，提高股東回報。總而言之，我們仍然致力於我們的策略，鑑於我們結果的一致性，其成功是顯而易見的，我將在投影片 4 中強調這一點。

We built Fortive to drive growth, drive progress and drive value. Reflecting on our evolution, we made significant steps again in 2023 towards our vision of a premier company. This includes 5% core growth and 160 basis points adjusted operating margin expansion. The benefits of our portfolio transformation are reflected in our progress to date, averaging rule of 35 in performance over the last 5 years. FBS is driving commercial success as we expand into new growth markets, speed innovation cycles and maximize investment returns across our 3 operating segments.

我們建立 Fortive 是為了推動成長、推動進步和推動價值。回顧我們的發展歷程，我們在 2023 年再次朝著成為一流公司的願景邁出了重要一步。這包括 5% 的核心成長和 160 個基點的調整後營業利潤率擴張。我們的投資組合轉型的好處反映在我們迄今為止的進展中，過去 5 年的平均績效為 35。隨著我們擴展到新的成長市場、加快創新週期並最大限度地提高我們三個營運部門的投資回報，FBS 正在推動商業成功。

For example, in 2023, we saw a 33% increase in our revenue attainment on new product launches. Many of these new products are contributing to the approximately 60% of our revenues that positively impact climate, health and safety concerns and aligned to the U.S. sustainable development goals.

例如，2023 年，我們新產品發布的收入成長了 33%。其中許多新產品貢獻了我們約 60% 的收入，對氣候、健康和安全問題產生了積極影響，並與美國永續發展目標保持一致。

Our operating companies are seeing a greater than 20% acceleration in software development time through the use of Gen AI, improving our ability to deliver more value to customers. Our culture of innovation, learning and continuous improvement is contributing to gains in our industry-leading employee engagement scores, a critical component of our sustained success.

透過使用 Gen AI，我們的營運公司的軟體開發時間縮短了 20% 以上，從而提高了我們為客戶提供更多價值的能力。我們的創新、學習和持續改進文化有助於我們獲得業界領先的員工敬業度分數，這是我們持續成功的關鍵組成部分。

Lastly, our acquisition performance contributed to our record free cash flow in the year, underpinned by industry-leading net working capital performance and accelerated returns on invested capital.

最後，我們的收購業績為我們今年創紀錄的自由現金流做出了貢獻，這得益於業界領先的淨營運資本績效和加速的投資資本回報。

On Slide 5, you see how our portfolio is strategically positioned to increasingly benefit from secular growth trends. Every day, we are helping our customers harness the power of emerging automation and digitization technologies, streamline crucial workflows and embrace the energy transition.

在投影片 5 中，您可以看到我們的投資組合如何進行策略定位，以便越來越多地受益於長期成長趨勢。我們每天都在幫助客戶利用新興自動化和數位化技術的力量，簡化關鍵工作流程並擁抱能源轉型。

Some highlights in the fourth quarter include, in IOS, Fluke's new family of multi-product calibrators are providing the broadest workload coverage across some of the fastest-growing markets. Fortive's recent bolt-on in RedEye is helping to transform customers' digital experience with a modern centralized hub for engineering document management, solidifying Accruent's leading position in that market.

第四季的一些亮點包括，在 IOS 中，福祿克的新多產品校準器系列正在為一些成長最快的市場提供最廣泛的工作負載覆蓋範圍。 Fortive 最近在 RedEye 中的補充正在幫助透過現代集中式工程文件管理中心轉變客戶的數位體驗，鞏固了 Accruent 在該市場的領先地位。

In PT, Tektronix is harnessing the power of open source software with the first release of its Python Native Drivers to help our customers automate their instruments and accelerate their testing types. Together with EA, which closed in early January, Tektronix is expanding its addressable market, adding complementary performance solutions to their best-in-class electronic test and measurement suite serving the fastest-growing areas of the power market.

在 PT 領域，泰克利用開源軟體的強大功能及其第一版 Python 本機驅動程式來幫助我們的客戶實現儀器自動化並加速他們的測試類型。泰克與 1 月初關閉的 EA 一起擴大其潛在市場，為其一流的電子測試和測量套件添加補充性能解決方案，服務於電力市場成長最快的領域。

In AHS, Landauer is helping customers reduce energy usage, waste and carbon emissions with their new Digital Dosimetry Solution. And ASP launched their new sterilization monitoring products in North America and Asia helping customers achieve greater efficiency and assurance as they work to keep up with rising clinical demand.

在 AHS 領域，Landauer 正在透過其新的數位劑量測定解決方案幫助客戶減少能源使用、浪費和碳排放。 ASP 在北美和亞洲推出了新的滅菌監測產品，幫助客戶在滿足不斷增長的臨床需求時實現更高的效率和保證。

Turning to Slide 6 and a spotlight on M&A performance. Our 2 most recent large deals provide an excellent example of the Fortive flywheel for value creation and action. In 2021, we accelerated our segment strategies with the acquisitions of ServiceChannel and ProVation. These 2 world-class software offerings are creating compelling value for our customers. And Fortive, having fully embraced the power of FBS to drive double-digit ARR growth and significant margin expansion.

轉向幻燈片 6，專注於併購績效。我們最近的兩筆大型交易為 Fortive 飛輪創造價值和採取行動提供了一個很好的例子。 2021 年，我們透過收購 ServiceChannel 和 ProVation 加快了細分策略。這兩種世界一流的軟體產品正在為我們的客戶創造引人注目的價值。 Fortive 充分利用了 FBS 的力量，推動了兩位數的 ARR 成長和顯著的利潤成長。

For example, ServiceChannel exited 2023 with adjusted operating margins in the mid-20s up from breakeven when it was acquired. And ProVation delivered 112% net dollar retention in its GI solutions, up approximately 8 points Censis acquisition. The execution of our disciplined acquisition strategy strengthened by the value FBS creates and is a critical component of how we achieve sustained results over time. You see that reflected in their industry-leading net dollar retention as our innovation and customer-centricity tools are helping them retain and grow their existing base.

例如，ServiceChannel 在 2023 年退出時，調整後的營業利潤率比被收購時的損益平衡點提高了 20 倍以上。 ProVation 的 GI 解決方案實現了 112% 的淨美元保留率，比 Censis 收購高出約 8 個百分點。 FBS 創造的價值加強了我們嚴格的收購策略的執行，並且是我們如何隨著時間的推移實現持續成果的關鍵組成部分。您可以看到，他們行業領先的淨美元保留率反映了這一點，因為我們的創新和以客戶為中心的工具正在幫助他們保留和擴大現有基礎。

Turning to Slide 7. Our ability to deliver differentiated results enable our world-class business system. Across Fortive, we leveraged FBS to better understand our customers, accelerate innovation, expand market share profitably, improve operations and forge the leadership skills we need for the future. One of the best things about FBS is that we never stop improving it. As our portfolio evolves, we are expanding the tool set and capabilities that allow us to set and deliver on high expectations, as you just saw in the ServiceChannel and ProVation examples.

轉向幻燈片 7。我們提供差異化成果的能力造就了我們世界一流的業務系統。在 Fortive 中，我們利用 FBS 更好地了解客戶、加速創新、擴大市場份額並實現盈利、改善營運並培養未來所需的領導技能。 FBS 最好的事情之一是我們從未停止改進它。隨著我們產品組合的發展，我們正在擴展工具集和功能，使我們能夠設定和實現高期望，正如您在 ServiceChannel 和 ProVation 範例中看到的那樣。

In 2023 the FORT, our center of excellence for software data and AI expanded its capabilities to further support digital transformation and drive innovation, next-gen products and productivity across Fortive. Core to our success is how our leaders immerse, teach and lead from the front with FBS. Together, they make Kaizen the way of life for our 18,000 team members reinforcing our strong culture of inclusion where everyone's contribution matters. Looking at the chart on the right, what is unique and differentiated about Fortive, the breadth of results that are compounding over time.

2023 年，我們的軟體數據和人工智慧卓越中心 FORT 擴展了其能力，以進一步支援數位轉型並推動整個 Fortive 的創新、下一代產品和生產力。我們成功的核心在於我們的領導者如何沉浸在 FBS 的前沿、進行教學和領導。他們共同使 Kaizen 成為我們 18,000 名團隊成員的生活方式，強化了我們強大的包容文化，其中每個人的貢獻都很重要。查看右側的圖表，您會發現 Fortive 的獨特之處和差異化之處，以及隨著時間的推移而不斷增加的廣泛結果。

Since 2019, we have sustained our target of mid-single-digit through cycle core growth. We have delivered outstanding margin expansion above our annual commitments. We have converted more revenue to income growing adjusted EPS at 14% compounded rate and converted more income to cash, compounding free cash flow at an average of 19% over time.

自 2019 年以來，我們透過週期核心成長維持了中個位數的目標。我們的利潤率成長顯著，超出了我們的年度承諾。我們已將更多的收入轉換為收入成長的調整後每股收益，複利率為 14%，並將更多的收入轉換為現金，隨著時間的推移，自由現金流的複利平均為 19%。

With that, I'll turn it over to Chuck to provide more color on our fourth quarter financials and our 2024 outlook, starting on Slide 8.

接下來，我將把它交給 Chuck，從幻燈片 8 開始，為我們的第四季度財務數據和 2024 年展望提供更多資訊。

Thanks, Jim, and hello, everyone. We ended the year with a high level of performance, generating earnings' growth of approximately 3x revenue growth. Core revenue growth of 3% in the quarter reflected an acceleration in IOS and healthcare, partially offset by anticipated slowing in Precision Technologies. We achieved record margins in the quarter and full year, driven by the strength of our brands, accelerated innovation and the benefits of our productivity (inaudible). Highlights of our fourth quarter performance include 220 basis points of adjusted gross and operating margin expansion, adjusted earnings per share of $0.98, reflecting $0.04 operational beat at the midpoint with earnings up 11% year-over-year. And free cash flow was $413 million, down versus the prior year as expected and up 56% on a 2-year stack basis.

謝謝吉姆，大家好。我們以高水準的業績結束了這一年，獲利成長約為收入成長的 3 倍。本季核心營收成長 3%，反映 IOS 和醫療保健業務的加速成長，但部分被 Precision Technologies 的預期放緩所抵銷。在品牌實力、加速創新和生產力優勢（聽不清楚）的推動下，我們在本季和全年實現了創紀錄的利潤率。我們第四季業績的亮點包括調整後毛利率和營業利潤率增長了 220 個基點，調整後每股收益為 0.98 美元，反映出中間值 0.04 美元的營運表現，收益同比增長 11%。自由現金流為 4.13 億美元，低於上年預期，但以 2 年堆疊計算成長 56%。

For the year, core revenue growth was 5%, exceeding our initial outlook of 4%. Adjusted gross margins expanded by 180 basis points to 59.5%. Adjusted operating profit grew 11% and margins expanded by 160 basis points. Adjusted EPS of $3.43 grew 9% and we delivered on our free cash flow forecast of $1.25 billion, which represents 32% growth on a 2-year stack.

今年核心營收成長 5%，超過我們最初預期的 4%。調整後毛利率擴大 180 個基點，達到 59.5%。調整後營業利益成長 11%，利潤率擴大 160 個基點。調整後每股收益為 3.43 美元，成長 9%，我們實現了 12.5 億美元的自由現金流預測，這意味著 2 年將成長 32%。

Turning to Slide 9. I'll now provide highlights on the fourth quarter performance of each of the 3 segments, beginning with Intelligent Operating Solutions. Q4 core growth was 6%, reflecting continued momentum across this segment with stable POS trends in all regions and new logos and customer bookings contributing to strong ARR growth. Adjusted operating margins expanded 300 basis points to 34.2% driven by margin expansion in all businesses, accretive software mix and price realization and productivity initiatives.

轉向投影片 9。我現在將重點介紹這三個部分的第四季度業績，從智慧操作解決方案開始。第四季核心成長率為 6%，反映出該細分市場的持續成長勢頭，所有地區的 POS 趨勢穩定，新商標和客戶預訂推動了 ARR 的強勁成長。受所有業務利潤成長、增值軟體組合以及價格實現和生產力計劃的推動，調整後營業利潤率擴大了 300 個基點，達到 34.2%。

Overall, we have seen better durability in Fluke throughout the year given the benefits of innovation and customer adoptions in key growth verticals. Environmental Health and Safety continues to see strong high net growth at ISC and double-digit SaaS growth at Intelex.

總體而言，鑑於關鍵成長垂直領域的創新和客戶採用的好處，我們看到福祿克全年具有更好的耐用性。環境健康與安全部門繼續看到 ISC 的強勁高淨成長和 Intelex 的兩位數 SaaS 成長。

Facilities & Asset Lifecycle at double-digit core growth throughout most of 2023 driven by continued strength in SaaS, contributing to record margin expansion.

在 SaaS 持續強勁的推動下，設施和資產生命週期在 2023 年的大部分時間裡實現了兩位數的核心成長，推動了創紀錄的利潤率擴張。

Moving on to Precision Technologies. Core revenues in the quarter were slightly ahead of expectations, down 1% driven by lower Sensing revenues more than offsetting growth in Power, Food and Beverage and Aerospace and Defense markets.

轉向精密技術。本季核心收入略高於預期，下降 1%，原因是感測收入下降，遠遠抵消了電力、食品和飲料以及航空航太和國防市場的成長。

Adjusted operating margins expanded 270 basis points to 29%, enabled by favorable price and productivity benefits funded throughout the year. Additional highlights include Tektronix which had a record year with 9% core growth, up 25% on a 2-year stack basis, reflecting the benefits of our focused innovation and vertical markets growth initiatives. And while Sensing Technology revenues were down low single digits in 2023, they were up low double digit on a 2-year stack and ended the year with a return to growth in 2 of our 4 businesses.

由於全年提供的有利價格和生產力效益，調整後營業利潤率擴大了 270 個基點，達到 29%。其他亮點包括泰克，該年核心成長率達到創紀錄的 9%，在 2 年堆疊基礎上成長 25%，這反映了我們專注於創新和垂直市場成長計畫的好處。雖然感測技術收入在 2023 年下降了較低的個位數，但在過去 2 年中實現了較低的兩位數增長，並在年底時我們 4 項業務中有 2 項恢復了增長。

Now on to Advanced Healthcare Solutions. Q4 growth was 3%, driven by an acceleration to mid-single-digit growth at ASP, excluding Invetech, AHS core growth would have been approximately 6%.

現在介紹進階醫療保健解決方案。第四季成長率為 3%，主要受到 ASP 加速至中個位數成長的推動，不包括 Invetech，AHS 核心成長率約為 6%。

Adjusted operating margins expanded 160 basis points to 25.7%, driven by flow-through on consumables, price realization and productivity. Additional highlights include, at ASP, we are through the North American channel transition from indirect to direct, driving 7% consumables growth in the quarter. Our Software businesses continued their pace of double-digit SaaS growth with new logo success at Censis and ProVation. We expect to sustain this momentum in 2024.

受消耗品流通、價格實現和生產力的推動，調整後營業利潤率擴大 160 個基點至 25.7%。其他亮點包括，在 ASP，我們正在透過北美管道從間接向直接轉型，推動本季消耗品成長 7%。我們的軟體業務繼續保持兩位數 SaaS 成長速度，新商標在 Censis 和 ProVation 上取得了成功。我們預計 2024 年將保持這一勢頭。

Turning to Slide 10. You can see total growth in the fourth quarter of 4% was driven by expansion in the core with minor contributions from FX and bolt-on acquisitions. By regions, we had mid-single-digit revenue growth in North America, driven by growth in all segments, including stronger growth in consumables, benefiting AHS. Western Europe revenue was up slightly as growth in software was offset by normalizing growth in hardware products. Asia saw continued strength in India and Japan, however, was more than offset by high single-digit decline in China. As a reminder, we anticipated growth in China would be down as we lap outside growth in prior years.

轉向投影片 10。您可以看到第四季 4% 的總成長是由核心業務擴張推動的，外匯和補強收購的貢獻較小。按地區劃分，我們在北美地區的收入實現了中個位數成長，這得益於所有細分市場的成長，包括消耗品的強勁成長，這使 AHS 受益。西歐收入略有成長，因為軟體的成長被硬體產品的正常成長所抵消。在亞洲，印度和日本的持續強勢，但被中國的個位數高跌幅所抵消。提醒一下，我們預計中國的成長將會下降，因為我們的成長落後於前幾年的外部成長。

Turning now to Slide 11. We're introducing 2024 guidance, starting with the full year. We expect growth of 6% to 8%, with core revenues up 2% to 4% and acquisition contributions of approximately $215 million. Adjusted operating profit is expected to increase 10% to 13% with margins of approximately 27%. Adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $3.73 and $3.85 up 9% to 12% include a $0.13 headwind from higher interest expense associated with funding of the EA acquisition.

現在轉向投影片 11。我們將從全年開始介紹 2024 年指引。我們預期成長 6% 至 8%，核心營收成長 2% 至 4%，收購貢獻約 2.15 億美元。調整後營業利潤預計將成長 10% 至 13%，利潤率約 27%。調整後的稀釋後每股盈餘指引為 3.73 美元和 3.85 美元，成長 9% 至 12%，其中包括與 EA 收購融資相關的較高利息支出帶來的 0.13 美元阻力。

The effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 14.5% to 15%, in line with the average of the last 2 years and reflecting the benefits of the EA acquisition. Free cash flow is expected to be approximately $1.38 billion, representing conversion in the range of 100% to 105% of adjusted net income and 21% free cash flow margin.

有效稅率預計約為 14.5% 至 15%，與過去 2 年的平均稅率一致，並反映了 EA 收購的收益。自由現金流預計約 13.8 億美元，相當於調整後淨利潤的 100% 至 105%，自由現金流利潤率為 21%。

For the first quarter, we anticipate revenue growth of 3% to 5%, with core flat to up 2%, driven by the continued momentum in our IOS and AHS segments, partially offset by a low to mid-single-digit decline in PT. Adjusted operating profit is expected to increase 6% to 10%, with margins of approximately 24.8%. Adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $0.77 to $0.80, up 3% to 7% includes a $0.04 headwind from higher year-over-year interest and free cash flow of approximately $180 million, reflecting normal [similar] variation.

在我們的 IOS 和 AHS 細分市場持續成長動能的推動下，我們預期第一季營收成長 3% 至 5%，核心營收持平至成長 2%，部分被 PT 低至中個位數下降所抵銷。調整後營業利潤預計將成長6%至10%，利潤率約24.8%。調整後的稀釋後每股收益指引為0.77 美元至0.80 美元，上漲3% 至7%，其中包括同比利息增加帶來的0.04 美元阻力以及約1.8 億美元的自由現金流，反映了正常的[類似]變化。

Moving to Slide 12 and the outlook for 2024 by segments. You can see we expect positive growth and operating margin expansion in each segment in 2024, supported by our alignment secular tailwinds, new product introductions resulting from our robust innovation efforts. The continued resilience of our software and other recurring revenue businesses, the expected delivery of the remaining approximate $100 million of excess backlog in our hardware products businesses, another year of FBS-driven execution and the carryover benefits of the productivity initiatives that we executed in 2023.

前往投影片 12 以及按細分市場劃分的 2024 年展望。您可以看到，我們預計到 2024 年，每個細分市場都會實現正成長和營業利潤率擴張，這得益於我們的長期順風順水以及我們強勁的創新努力帶來的新產品推出。我們的軟體和其他經常性收入業務的持續彈性，硬體產品業務中剩餘約 1 億美元的超額積壓訂單的預期交付，FBS 驅動的執行又一年以及我們在 2023 年執行的生產力計劃的結轉效益。

By segment for the year, we are planning IOS to continue its momentum with mid-single-digit core growth and another 100 basis points of margin expansion. Key drivers include stable demand and NPR traction in the hardware products and continued ARR growth supported by strong 2023 SaaS bookings.

按今年的細分市場，我們計劃 IOS 繼續保持其勢頭，實現中個位數的核心增長和另外 100 個基點的利潤率擴張。主要驅動因素包括硬體產品的穩定需求和 NPR 牽引力，以及 2023 年強勁的 SaaS 預訂支援的 ARR 持續成長。

We are planning for PT revenues to be up 10% at the midpoint in 2024 with core growth up slightly, reflecting the benefits of the EA acquisition and normalization of orders in hardware and products businesses in 2023. We expect EA to be accretive to adjusted operating margins in 2024. And together with the benefits of our productivity initiatives, we expect PT margin expansion of over 100 basis points.

我們計劃 PT 收入在 2024 年中點增長 10%，核心增長略有上升，這反映了 EA 收購以及 2023 年中點增長 10%，核心增長略有上升，這反映了 EA 收購以及 2023 年硬體和產品業務訂單正常化的好處。我們預計 EA 將有助於調整後的運營2024 年的利潤率。加上我們生產力計劃的好處，我們預計PT 利潤率將擴大100 個基點以上。

PT's outlook also reflects the realignment of Invetech into Sensing Technologies Group as we explore strategic alternatives for Invetech's design and engineering business. The remainder of Invetech's includes product revenues that align more closely to our automation businesses in Sensing. For comparison purposes, we have provided pro forma segment results for 2023 in the appendix.

PT 的前景也反映了 Invetech 重組為感測技術集團，因為我們正在探索 Invetech 設計和工程業務的策略替代方案。 Invetech 的其餘部分包括與我們的感測自動化業務更密切相關的產品收入。出於比較目的，我們在附錄中提供了 2023 年的預計分部表現。

In AHS, we are planning mid-single-digit core growth, with operating margin expansion of over 125 basis points driven by volume, price realization and productivity. We expect an acceleration in the growth at ASP driven by their improved channel position, NPIs and procedure volumes and new logos and SaaS migrations are expected to drive continued software growth in healthcare. Before opening up for questions, I'll pass it back to Jim for closing remarks.

在 AHS 方面，我們計劃實現中個位數的核心成長，在銷售、價格實現和生產力的推動下，營業利潤率擴大超過 125 個基點。我們預計，由於通路地位、NPI 和程式量的改善，ASP 的成長將加速，而新商標和 SaaS 遷移預計將推動醫療保健領域軟體的持續成長。在開始提問之前，我會將其傳回給吉姆以供結束語。

Thanks, Chuck. I'll start this wrap-up on Slide 13. I am incredibly proud of the contributions of our 18,000 team members to make 2023 another record year for Fortive. Over the last couple of years, our success executing our strategy to build a more resilient company reflects our strong foundation and enduring principles that underpin our unique and compelling culture.

謝謝，查克。我將從投影片 13 開始總結。我對我們​​ 18,000 名團隊成員所做的貢獻感到無比自豪，他們為 Fortive 創造了另一個創紀錄的 2023 年。在過去的幾年裡，我們成功執行了打造更具彈性的公司的策略，這反映了我們堅實的基礎和持久的原則，這些原則支撐著我們獨特而引人注目的文化。

We talked about the operating rigor and leverage of FBS tools to innovate and drive growth across our segments. In addition to higher core growth, the deals we have done are contributing to our multiyear track record, including strong performance again in 2024.

我們討論了 FBS 工具的營運嚴謹性和槓桿作用，以創新和推動我們各個細分市場的成長。除了更高的核心成長之外，我們所做的交易也為我們的多年業績記錄做出了貢獻，包括 2024 年再次表現強勁。

Since 2019, we are sustaining 7% revenue growth, delivering 120 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion per year, driven predominantly by higher gross margins. Compounding earnings and free cash flow double digits, we have cut net working capital as a percent of sales nearly in half, building 50% more free cash flow per dollar of revenue. This is a testament to our portfolio transformation and the power of FBS fueling our current and future success and with a $60 billion served market, we have substantial runway to accelerate growth organically and inorganically. This brings me to Slide 14 and how we drive differentiated performance and value creation for our shareholders.

自 2019 年以來，我們的收入保持著 7% 的成長，調整後的營業利潤率每年增長 120 個基點，這主要是由毛利率提高推動的。複合收益和自由現金流達到兩位數，我們將淨營運資本佔銷售額的百分比削減了近一半，每美元收入的自由現金流增加了 50%。這證明了我們的投資組合轉型以及 FBS 的力量推動了我們當前和未來的成功，並且憑藉 600 億美元的服務市場，我們擁有廣闊的道路來加速有機和無機成長。這讓我想到投影片 14，以及我們如何為股東推動差異化績效和價值創造。

With a consistent and compelling 2024 outlook, including 6% to 8% total growth and over 100 basis points adjusted operating margin expansion in every segment, we are on track to our 2025 target of $4.50 of earnings and $1.6 billion of free cash flow.

憑藉一致且引人注目的2024 年前景，包括6% 至8% 的總成長以及每個細分市場超過100 個基點的調整後營業利潤率擴張，我們有望實現2025 年4.50 美元收益和16 億美元自由現金流的目標。

We are confident in our ability to differentiate our performance and believe our outlook is appropriately balanced, remaining agile to deliver for customers and shareholders should the environment differ dramatically. As we showed at our 2023 Investor Day by executing the Fortive Formula, we expect to roughly double our earnings per share and generate more than $8 billion of free cash flow over the next 5 years.

我們對實現業績差異化的能力充滿信心，並相信我們的前景是適當平衡的，即使環境發生巨大變化，我們仍然能夠靈活地為客戶和股東提供服務。正如我們在 2023 年投資者日上透過執行 Fortive 公式所展示的那樣，我們預計未來 5 年內每股收益將增加一倍左右，並產生超過 80 億美元的自由現金流。

Our M&A funnel remains strong, and our acceleration of capital employment as demonstrated in 2023, further positions Fortive as a higher growth cash flow compounder and a premier company delivering exceptional value to shareholders. With that, I'll turn it back to you, Elena.

我們的併購管道依然強勁，而且我們在 2023 年加速資本運用，進一步將 Fortive 定位為成長速度更快的現金流複合企業和為股東提供卓越價值的一流公司。這樣，我會把它轉回給你，艾琳娜。

Thanks, Jim. That concludes our comments. Kristina, we are now ready for questions.

謝謝，吉姆。我們的評論到此結束。克里斯蒂娜，我們現在準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩（Steve Tusa）。

Just the kind of trend in the shorter-cycle businesses, Tek and Fluke, maybe just an update on where you stand, book-to-bill, how the revenue did this quarter and then how you're thinking about how the year plays out next year?

只是較短週期業務（泰克和福祿克）的趨勢，也許只是您的立場、訂單到賬單、本季度收入情況以及您對這一年的看法的最新情況明年？

Yes, Steve, it's Jim. I think, number one, I would differentiate Fluke and Tek here. I think we certainly saw -- we saw mid-single-digit growth at Fluke in the quarter. We saw growth in orders, point of sales in the mid-single digit around the world. So I think we're seeing the real benefits of the number of transformation things that we've done from an innovation perspective, also with some of the M&A work we've done and in good shape. And I would say Tek, Tek was low single digits in the quarter, but quite frankly, off a 20% growth comp in Q4 '22. So still saw some good performance there. We felt really good about the quarter they produced as well.

是的，史蒂夫，是吉姆。我認為，第一，我會在這裡區分 Fluke 和 Tek。我認為我們確實看到了福祿克在本季度實現了中位數的成長。我們看到全球訂單和銷售點均實現中個位數成長。因此，我認為我們從創新的角度看到了我們所做的大量轉型工作的真正好處，以及我們已經完成的一些併購工作並且狀態良好。我想說 Tek，Tek 在本季的成長率較低，但坦白說，22 年第 4 季的成長率為 20%。所以仍然看到了一些不錯的表現。我們對他們生產的季度也感覺非常好。

And certainly, the year that Tektronix had is unprecedented, a record year, as we said in the prepared remarks. So as we go into the next year, I think it's, I think, more of the same at Fluke. We've really seen some resilience and durability activity that we've talked a lot about over the years, playing out there, had a hell of a quarter. They're about their fifth quarter of negative bookings. And obviously, we've been working off backlog there. And we would anticipate that book-to-bill there turns positive and probably Q2. So we feel good.

當然，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，泰克公司度過的這一年是史無前例的、創紀錄的一年。因此，當我們進入明年時，我認為福祿克的情況會更加相似。我們確實看到了一些彈性和持久性的活動，這些年來我們一直在談論這些活動，在那裡進行了一個季度。這是他們第五個季度出現負預訂。顯然，我們一直在解決那裡的積壓問題。我們預計第二季的訂單出貨量將轉為正值。所以我們感覺很好。

North America was really good for Tek, where a little bit of slowing that we saw within China as we talked a little bit about our China growth in total in Chuck's prepared remarks. But obviously, part of that Tek's one of our bigger businesses in China. Part of that story is the Tektronix there. So I'll pause there, and you've got any follow-up, I'll certainly cover.

北美對 Tek 來說確實非常有利，當我們在 Chuck 準備好的演講中談到我們在中國的整體成長時，我們看到中國國內的成長略有放緩。但顯然，泰克的一部分是我們在中國更大的業務之一。這個故事的一部分就是那裡的泰克公司。所以我會在這裡暫停，如果有任何後續行動，我一定會覆蓋。

Yes. And then just how much price do you assume in the -- for the guide for 2024?

是的。那麼您認為 2024 年指南的價格是多少？

We're thinking about 2% to 3%.

我們正在考慮 2% 到 3%。

Your next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Just like on the reclass of Invetech to PT, it's a small business, it seems like margins are relatively depressed, maybe 6% to 7% margin. Just wondering, I think, Chuck, you went through some of the logic about just maybe talk about what this achieves this reclass? And maybe just in terms of the importance of this ASP rather AHS acceleration, kind of like how is that benefiting sort of the outlook for AHS because were you assuming that Invetech recovers? Just trying to think about AHS on a like-to-like basis here.

就像 Invetech 重新分類為 PT 一樣，它是一家小型企業，看起來利潤率相對較低，可能有 6% 到 7% 的利潤率。只是想知道，我想，查克，你經歷了一些邏輯，也許只是談論這實現了這個重新分類？也許只是就 ASP 而不是 AHS 加速的重要性而言，有點像這對 AHS 的前景有什麼好處，因為你是否假設 Invetech 會復甦？只是嘗試在相似的基礎上考慮 AHS。

Thanks for the question, Nigel. I'll take the margin question first. We're talking about the business expanding 125 basis points, but that's on a like-for-like basis, if you really look at where we ended with Invetech and we're up probably 200, 250 basis points, but the business is generating margin expansion of 125, and that's what we've got in the guide. I think the rationale for switching it is the event design engineering piece just isn't as big as we thought it was going to be, and it's not but not really moving forward. And so the part that is now the majority of this business really fits better in Sensing.

謝謝你的提問，奈傑爾。我先來回答邊際問題。我們談論的是業務擴張 125 個基點，但這是在同類基礎上，如果你真的看看我們與 Invetech 的結局，我們可能增長了 200、250 個基點，但業務正在產生利潤率擴張為125，這就是我們在指南中得到的內容。我認為切換它的理由是事件設計工程部分並沒有我們想像的那麼大，而且它並沒有真正向前推進。因此，現在佔該業務大部分的部分確實更適合感測。

Yes. Nigel, I would just add, we called out in the slide materials that Invetech was a headwind in the quarter for healthcare to the tune of about 280 basis points. That's probably the largest year-over-year headwind that Invetech has seen. I wouldn't expect the size of that to continue, but probably still in the 1% to 2% range how it continued to be in healthcare throughout 2024. But that's now reflected in PT.

是的。 Nigel，我想補充一點，我們在幻燈片資料中指出，Invetech 在本季對醫療保健產業構成了約 280 個基點的逆風。這可能是英維泰克所經歷的最大的同比逆風。我預計這種規模不會持續下去，但可能仍會在 2024 年醫療保健領域繼續保持在 1% 到 2% 的範圍內。但這現在已反映在 PT 中。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just on the transition ASP consumables. Just confirmed that's now fully behind us. There's no lingering impact there. It sounds like it is. But maybe I think we can see the clear sort of margin benefits that we should see coming through from capturing that distributor margin. But maybe talk about the opportunities to drive better growth and having that direct customer connection, what do you see as a potential for revenue benefits?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是過渡 ASP 消耗品。剛剛確認現在已經完全過去了。那裡沒有持久的影響。聽起來確實如此。但也許我認為我們可以看到我們應該從獲取分銷商利潤中獲得的明顯的利潤收益。但也許談論推動更好成長和建立直接客戶聯繫的機會，您認為收入收益的潛力是什麼？

Well, Nigel, I would say, number one, yes, we're definitely fully through it. So you saw the benefit of that. I think as we said in the prepared remarks, consumables in North America were up about 7%. Consumables around the world are up about 4%. So good performance there. We think mid-single-digit guide for ASP for the full year is a good number, certainly opportunity to go and on the margin front, which we're going after. We were just with the team last week. We actually had them with -- we had our Board meeting there, and we had the team there for an operating review, highlighting the level of innovation. I talked about in the prepared remarks. We now have a new set of consumables around steam sterilization that are going to now be in the U.S. and Asia that are certified.

好吧，奈傑爾，我想說，第一，是的，我們肯定已經完全度過了難關。所以你看到了這樣做的好處。我認為正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，北美的消費品上漲了約 7%。全球消耗品上漲約4%。那裡的表現非常好。我們認為全年平均售價中個位數的指導是一個很好的數字，當然也是我們追求利潤率的機會。上週我們剛和團隊在一起。實際上，我們在那裡召開了董事會會議，我們的團隊在那裡進行了營運審查，強調了創新水平。我在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。我們現在擁有一套有關蒸氣滅菌的新耗材，這些耗材現已在美國和亞洲獲得認證。

So a number of opportunities here to continue to improve the growth. Those are obviously all in Consumables which obviously have higher fall-through. So we like the guide here overall held up 125 basis points in margin expansion mid-single-digit growth. We think that's a great launch point. It certainly certifies, I think a lot of the things we've been saying about the direct North American strategy and certainly more broadly around the strategy at ASP and how health will just be a real durable grower for Fortive in '24.

因此，這裡有許多繼續提高成長的機會。這些顯然都是消耗品，顯然有更高的損失。因此，我們喜歡這裡的指導總體上維持了 125 個基點的利潤率擴張，中等個位數成長。我們認為這是一個很好的起點。這當然證明了，我認為我們一直在談論直接的北美策略，當然更廣泛地圍繞 ASP 的策略，以及健康如何在 24 年成為 Fortive 真正持久的種植者。

And your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell of Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

I just wanted to check on the sort of margins in the first quarter. So I realize it's not a big sequential decline in sales, but you've got a very heavy sort of sequential step-down in margins there in Q1, 100% or so kind of drop-through. So is that reflecting maybe something on mix in any of the businesses in the first quarter versus the fourth? I'm just trying to understand maybe on Precision, in particular, how their margins are starting out the year in Q1?

我只是想檢查一下第一季的利潤率。所以我意識到，銷售額並不是一個很大的連續下降，但第一季的利潤率出現了非常嚴重的連續下降，大約是 100% 的下降。那麼，這是否反映了第一季與第四季度任何業務的混合？我只是想了解 Precision，特別是他們今年第一季的利潤率如何？

Nigel, the biggest thing is there's just a seasonal step-down in revenue dollars from Q4 to Q1, and that's what gives you a normally seasonal step-down in the margins, pointing out that our Q1 guide is up 75 basis points. So that's a pretty good expansion there. So I think we're seeing pretty good performance across the segments in margin expansion, too.

奈傑爾，最重要的是，從第四季度到第一季度，收入美元只是季節性下降，這就是利潤率正常季節性下降的原因，他指出我們的第一季指南上升了 75 個基點。所以這是一個非常好的擴充。因此，我認為我們在各個細分市場的利潤率擴張方面也看到了相當不錯的表現。

Yes. And I would just say that guide represents record operating margins in the first quarter for Fortive. So I think when you just look at -- we do have some expenses that start back up at the beginning of the year, obviously, salaries and some of those things. There's a little bit of that. But at the end of the day, if you just step back, record -- that will be a record first quarter for -- in the history of Fortive.

是的。我只想說，該指南代表了 Fortive 第一季創紀錄的營業利潤率。所以我認為，當你看一下時，我們確實有一些費用在年初開始增加，顯然是工資和其中的一些費用。有那麼一點點。但歸根結底，如果你退後一步，就會在 Fortive 的歷史上創下第一季的紀錄。

And then my follow-up would just be -- it's typical, I suppose, you give guidance for year 1 and then someone asked about year 2. But if I look at Slide 14, you do have that, I guess, it seemed medium-term when you gave it, but you've got that $450-ish or maybe $430 million, excluding capital deployment number for 2025, and obviously, a year from now, that will be a formal guide whatever you end up giving not a medium-term aspiration. So I guess I'm trying to ask kind of how, given it is only 11 months away now, that period how seriously should investors treat that number of $450 million does require a fair amount of M&A over this year.

然後我的後續行動就是——我想這是典型的，你給出第一年的指導，然後有人問第二年的情況。但是如果我看幻燈片14，你確實有，我想，它看起來中等-當你給出它時，你已經得到了450 美元左右，或者可能是4.3 億美元，不包括2025 年的資本部署數字，顯然，從現在起一年後，無論你最終給出的不是媒介，這都將是一個正式的指南長期願望。因此，我想我想問一下，考慮到距離現在只有 11 個月的時間，投資者應該如何認真對待這一 4.5 億美元的數字，而今年確實需要相當數量的併購。

So any thoughts around the M&A market backdrop. One of your acquisitive peers were saying it's maybe looking a little bit better now.

那麼關於併購市場背景的任何想法。你的一位貪婪的同行說現在看起來可能好一點了。

Yes, a couple of things. I think when you look at our history in terms of double-digit EPS growth and the compounding free cash flow, I think, it's not enormously to get to that $450 million. That's why we put those numbers out there a year ago and we reiterated them in the guide and on the presentation. So we obviously feel good long way away, a lot can happen, but we feel good about it. I think relative to the M&A market, we just closed a quarter where we did basically 5 deals between including kind of closing in the early part of January. So it's across the board in every segment, a variety of different sources from private equity to private ownership, founder-led companies, good breadth across a number of our workflows.

是的，有幾件事。我認為，當你從兩位數每股盈餘成長和複合自由現金流的角度來看我們的歷史時，我認為，達到 4.5 億美元並不是很大。這就是為什麼我們一年前就公佈了這些數字，並在指南和簡報中重申了它們。所以我們顯然在很長一段時間內感覺良好，可能會發生很多事情，但我們對此感覺良好。我認為相對於併購市場，我們剛剛結束了一個季度，基本上完成了 5 筆交易，包括 1 月初的交易。因此，它在每個細分市場都是全面的，有從私募股權到私有製的各種不同來源，創始人領導的公司，在我們的許多工作流程中都有廣泛的應用。

So we feel really good about the M&A environment, and we just demonstrated really good progress against the M&A environment. EA is starting off really well. And where we're starting now, I think that's going to be accretive in the year, only right after closing it. So we've seen really good things there. So I would say the -- what we've done, we're really proud of that work, good work that set us up well back to your comment about '25, the EA and those other deals are going to be helpful in '25 for sure.

因此，我們對併購環境感覺非常好，我們剛剛在併購環境中展示了非常好的進展。 EA 的起步非常好。從我們現在開始的角度來看，我認為這將在今年有所增加，只有在關閉之後才會出現。所以我們在那裡看到了非常好的東西。所以我想說的是——我們所做的，我們對這項工作感到非常自豪，出色的工作讓我們很好地回到了您對“25”的評論，EA 和其他交易將有助於“肯定是25。

And quite frankly, when you look at the environment that we're in right now, probably a little bit better. Certainly, we've demonstrated that, and we want to continue to, as always, as you know, Julian, we're always busy and we're excited about the opportunities that are in front of us, but we're also incredibly excited about the teams that have just joined Fortive.

坦白說，當你看看我們現在所處的環境時，可能會好一點。當然，我們已經證明了這一點，我們希望繼續一如既往，正如你所知，朱利安，我們總是很忙，我們對擺在我們面前的機會感到興奮，但我們也難以置信對剛剛加入Fortive 的團隊感到興奮。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.

你的下一個問題來自垂直研究的傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague）。

Just a couple for me. Just back on ASP and the Consumables growth, 7% sounds pretty healthy. Is there some kind of -- I don't know, kind of channel fill in the direct model that had to happen, as you looked from distribution to direct, there's something abnormal about that number? What are you expecting for Consumables growth in the U.S. for 2024?

對我來說只是一對。回到平均售價和消耗品成長，7% 聽起來相當健康。是否有某種——我不知道，某種必鬚髮生的直接模型中的渠道填充，當你從分銷到直接查看時，這個數字有什麼異常嗎？您對 2024 年美國消費品成長有何預期？

We'll be in the mid-single-digit range. There's probably a hint of catch-up from Q3 there, but not a lot of inventory build, we would expect it to be mid-single digit for them across the board. And obviously, I wouldn't want to be a predictor of 7% every quarter. But as we said, we validated the strategy, I think, in Q4 with what we want to do. As I mentioned, with the team last week, they're incredibly optimistic about where they stand today and where they stand for the year and in the future years as well. So I think we're in a good place.

我們將處於中間個位數範圍內。可能有一絲追趕第三季的跡象，但庫存不會增加太多，我們預計它們的整體庫存量將達到中位數。顯然，我不想成為每季 7% 的預測者。但正如我們所說，我認為我們在第四季度根據我們想要做的事情驗證了該策略。正如我上週提到的，他們對團隊今天的處境以及今年和未來幾年的處境非常樂觀。所以我認為我們處於一個很好的位置。

And then just on EA, obviously, didn't own it in Q4, but any color on how it grew in Q4? And can you just be a little more specific on what you expect for growth in 2024, again, to be in M&A, but kind of the underlying growth in the business in 2024?

然後就 EA 而言，顯然，第四季度並沒有擁有它，但它在第四季度的成長情況有什麼線索嗎？您能否更具體地說明您對 2024 年併購成長的預期，以及 2024 年業務的潛在成長？

Yes. We -- first of all, we closed the first week of January, we're off to a good start. A 100-day plan is scheduled. We've got our [bay room] set up with integration. Our teams are really excited about the work we can do together. As you remember, Jeff, when we announced the deal, we said we'd have the opportunity to take our big Tektronix sales force and sell those solutions. We started our annual sales kickoff over the last couple of weeks. A lot of excitement about that.

是的。首先，我們結束了一月份的第一周，我們有了一個好的開始。制定了 100 天計畫。我們已經設置了整合的[海灣房間]。我們的團隊對我們可以共同完成的工作感到非常興奮。傑夫，您還記得嗎，當我們宣布這項交易時，我們說我們將有機會利用我們龐大的泰克銷售團隊來銷售這些解決方案。我們在過去幾週開始了年度銷售活動。對此非常興奮。

Relative to, specifically to your question, December was a record order month for the business. So they ended the year strong, and there's a tremendous amount of growth opportunities there in front of us. They've got a good backlog situation. So we feel good. We feel good about the revenue base for the year and what that can grow. Obviously, it won't be in our core, but until '25, but we feel good about the growth.

相對於您的問題，12 月是該公司創紀錄的訂單月。因此，他們在這一年中表現強勁，我們面前有大量的成長機會。他們的積壓情況良好。所以我們感覺很好。我們對今年的收入基礎及其成長前景感到滿意。顯然，它不會成為我們的核心，但直到 25 年，但我們對成長感到滿意。

Relative to -- we now think this is probably a mid-single-digit ROIC in '24, which is up from the original thesis around the deal. So we're already ahead of the game. Growth should be good. And we think the business is probably in the $190 million to $195 million range, that's probably where it will be for the year. So we're in a really good place with the business. It's a good team. As I mentioned before, and it's going to -- that's why I think when you step back and look at the deals we did, the previous question, we feel good about the year. 6% to 8% overall growth for the year stands up, obviously, EA being one of the big parts of that, but the other acquisition is adding some as well.

相對於 - 我們現在認為這可能是 24 年的中等個位數投資回報率，這高於圍繞該交易的原始論文。所以我們已經領先了。成長應該不錯。我們認為該業務可能在 1.9 億至 1.95 億美元之間，這可能是今年的水平。所以我們的業務處於一個非常好的位置。這是一個很好的團隊。正如我之前提到的，這就是為什麼我認為當你退一步看看我們所做的交易時，上一個問題，我們對這一年感覺良好。很明顯，今年 6% 到 8% 的整體成長率很高，EA 是其中的重要組成部分，但另一筆收購也增加了一些。

And just -- I'm sorry, a little quick housekeeping one, too. Just the design piece of Invetech, is that a divestible business? Or are you just winding it down? And how big is that piece?

抱歉，還有一點快速的家​​務管理。只是Invetech的設計部分，是可以剝離的業務嗎？或者你只是想結束它？那塊有多大？

It's in the $20 million range of revenue breakeven. So it's -- we'll look at a number of options. I think we've got -- there are buyers out there for sure. The team is working on some different things. So the other part of that business is called Silver Motion. So as you can imagine, it really was originally in our Sensing and Automation businesses. It's really -- it helps Life Science and customers, but it's -- but like our other Sensing businesses, quite frankly, it has more of an industrial aspect to, from an OEM perspective. That business has done pretty well over the last few years. So we'll anticipate keeping that as part of the portfolio, but we're going to look for options on the other time.

它的收入收支平衡在 2000 萬美元範圍內。因此，我們將考慮多種選擇。我認為我們肯定有買家。團隊正在研究一些不同的事情。所以該業務的另一部分稱為 Silver Motion。正如您所想的那樣，它最初確實屬於我們的感測和自動化業務。它確實對生命科學和客戶有幫助，但與我們其他感測業務一樣，坦白說，從 OEM 的角度來看，它更具有工業方面的意義。該業務在過去幾年中表現相當不錯。因此，我們預計會將其保留為投資組合的一部分，但我們將在其他時間尋找選擇。

Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

The word destocking didn't prop up in any of your prepared remarks, which is a relief. Any color there in terms of inventory in the channel, Fluke, sell-in, sell-through, any issues there?

「去庫存」這個詞並沒有出現在你準備好的言論中，這讓人鬆了一口氣。通路中的庫存、福祿克、銷售、銷售情況是否有任何變化，有什麼問題嗎？

Yes. I think relative to the second part of your question, mid-single-digit POS growth at Fluke around the world in the fourth quarter. So good solid growth. Down from the double digit we've seen for a while. But still, I think that would be, that we take that number pretty solidly. A little bit of destocking at Tek in the U.S. Single-digit millions, but a little bit and some in China, maybe more broadly. I would say that, that's -- we now think China is likely to probably not grow in the year that's embedded in our guide and some of that is going to be just, I would say, less destocking than it is just conservativeness on the part of the Chinese distributor and Chinese channel partners to sort of see how the macro evolves out there over the year. But again, that's embedded in our guidance.

是的。我認為相對於你問題的第二部分，福祿克第四季在全球的 POS 成長為中個位數。如此良好的穩健成長。低於我們一段時間以來看到的兩位數。但我仍然認為，我們對這個數字的把握相當可靠。美國泰克公司的庫存減少了幾百萬，但中國的庫存減少了一點，也許更廣泛。我想說的是，我們現在認為中國可能不會在我們的指南中提到的這一年實現增長，我想說，其中一些只是去庫存化，而不是部分保守。中國經銷商和中國渠道合作夥伴的情況，以了解這一年宏觀情勢如何演變。但同樣，這已納入我們的指導中。

So just to clarify on China, that's flat for the year is the expectation?

那我想澄清一下中國的情況，今年的情況持平是預期嗎？

Probably down low single for the year. So that would be our anticipation at this point. A couple of things there. Just starting what we've seen thus far is customers -- a little bit more conservative, as I mentioned. As you know, Deane, we've talked about this over the years. You really don't know China until you see March, you get out, you get to after the Chinese New Year, see how channel partners and customers are going to unfold for the year. We've seen more conservativeness up to this point in the year. So our anticipation is that the year sort of progresses. We had a really tough comp in the first quarter in China. We had great growth in China last year in the first quarter, but we would anticipate for the full year that China would probably be down about low single digit.

可能是今年最低單曲。這就是我們目前的預期。有幾件事。到目前為止，我們所看到的首先是客戶——正如我所提到的，客戶有點保守。正如你所知，迪恩，我們多年來一直在討論這個問題。你真的不了解中國，直到你看到三月，你出去，你在農曆新年之後，看看通路合作夥伴和客戶將如何展開這一年。今年到目前為止，我們已經看到了更多的保守態度。所以我們的預期是這一年會有所進展。我們第一季在中國的比賽非常艱難。去年第一季度，我們在中國取得了巨大的成長，但我們預計全年中國的成長率可能會下降約個位數。

Great. And just one clarification for EA. I believe you said that you were targeting 100 basis points of margin improvement for this year and that it would be the Tek sales force would be selling. Did they come with a sales force at all? And where is that 100 basis points? Is there any kind of manufacturing efficiencies? What are the drivers around the improved margins?

偉大的。只是 EA 的一項澄清。我相信您說過今年的利潤率提高了 100 個基點，並且將由 Tek 銷售人員進行銷售。他們有銷售團隊嗎？那100個基點在哪裡？有沒有某種製造效率？利潤率提高的驅動因素是什麼？

So Deane, a couple of things to unpack there. When we got EA and they just come with 40% incremental margin, I think the 100 basis points is about core growth that it adds to Tek, is what we called out. We would expect the volume growth that there's -- do they go from 40% to 41%? Yes, that wouldn't be super surprising for them. But I think that was more about the impact on core growth for everyone for -- at Tek. And then on the sales force, I think Jim can give a...

迪恩（Deane）有一些需要解開的東西。當我們獲得 EA 時，他們只提供了 40% 的增量利潤，我認為 100 個基點是關於它為 Tek 帶來的核心成長，這就是我們所說的。我們預計銷量會從 40% 成長到 41% 嗎？是的，這對他們來說並不奇怪。但我認為這更多的是對 Tek 的每個人的核心成長的影響。然後在銷售隊伍方面，我認為吉姆可以給出...

Yes. I mean if they came with about a sales force of roughly 40 folks, we 10x that with Tektronix. We have the ability to sell that solution across the board. The teams are working through their cross-selling strategies. And one of the things we said when we announced the deal was that we thought a real opportunity primarily outside of Europe to really accelerate the business through the addition of the Tektronix sales force. So yes, so as Chuck mentioned, already a very profitable company. They had great growth to -- they're a good growth company, a great growth company. And even with their size, they had growth at Tektronix and PT. So we're excited about that opportunity. Obviously, that's not the core for the year. That'll be in '25. But so far, we really feel -- we're really excited about the business joining Fortive.

是的。我的意思是，如果他們擁有大約 40 人的銷售隊伍，那麼我們泰克的銷售隊伍是其 10 倍。我們有能力全面銷售該解決方案。這些團隊正在製定交叉銷售策略。當我們宣布這項交易時，我們說過的一件事是，我們認為這是一個主要在歐洲以外的真正機會，可以透過增加泰克銷售隊伍來真正加速業務發展。所以，是的，正如查克所提到的，已經是一家非常獲利的公司。他們取得了巨大的成長——他們是一家良好的成長型公司，一家偉大的成長型公司。即使規模如此之大，泰克和 PT 也取得了成長。所以我們對這個機會感到很興奮。顯然，這不是今年的核心。那是25年的事了。但到目前為止，我們確實對加入 Fortive 的業務感到非常興奮。

And your next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup.

你的下一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨。

Chuck, maybe just a little more color on the expected AHS improvement in '24. Could you talk about Fluke Health, they were discontinuing product lines in '23, as you know, which is causing you some noise? Are they over the hump here in '24? And when you look at ASP, I know you're still building out your overall international infrastructure and supply chain. Are you over the hump there in terms of progress and how much restructuring is helping your margin in '24?

Chuck，也許對 24 年 AHS 的預期改進有更多的了解。你能談談 Fluke Health，正如你所知，他們在 23 年停止了產品線，這給你帶來了一些噪音？他們在 24 年已經度過難關了嗎？當您查看 ASP 時，我知道您仍在建立整體國際基礎設施和供應鏈。就進展而言，您是否已渡過難關？重組對您 24 年利潤率的幫助有多大？

Why don't I take the first part of that? Yes, Fluke Health will probably be in the mid-single-digit range for the year, so pretty close to the segment growth, maybe a little bit less in the first quarter and a little bit better, or first half and a little bit more in the second half. So -- but they are through some of the things that you described as well.

我為什麼不採取第一部分呢？是的，福祿克健康今年可能處於中位數範圍，非常接近細分市場的成長，可能第一季會少一點，好一點，或上半年多一點在下半場。所以——但他們也經歷了你所描述的一些事情。

With regards to the margin expansion, probably the bigger issue, bigger driver behind the margin expansion at Health is the growth at ASP and the top line growth, getting through that just distribution and having Consumables in North America show up like they did in Q4. I think that's probably had to score 80% of what's driving the margins there.

關於利潤率擴張，健康部門利潤率擴張背後可能更大的問題、更大的驅動力是平均售價的成長和營收成長，透過合理的分配並讓北美的消耗品像第四季一樣出現。我認為這可能是驅動利潤率的 80%。

That's helpful, guys. And then maybe just a little more color on price versus cost expectation in '24. I know you said price, Chuck, but one of your industrial peers report today and reported quite rocky results in terms of its handling of the global supply chain. It seems like Fortive is handling supply chain quite well. Pricing obviously remains sticky. But could you elaborate a little bit what you're baking in for price versus cost and how you would rate the predictability at this point of the global supply chain?

這很有幫助，夥計們。然後也許只是對 24 年的價格與成本預期進行更多的描述。我知道你說的是價格，查克，但你的一位工業同行今天發布了報告，並報告了其在處理全球供應鏈方面的相當不穩定的結果。看來 Fortive 在供應鏈方面處理得相當好。定價顯然仍然具有黏性。但您能否詳細說明您正在考慮的價格與成本的關係，以及您如何評估全球供應鏈此時的可預測性？

Well, I think there's a couple of things. In terms of the inflation we're seeing, we're seeing that come down and that's why you're seeing, the price we're putting into the market come down.

嗯，我認為有幾件事。就我們所看到的通貨膨脹而言，我們看到它下降了，這就是為什麼你看到我們投入市場的價格下降了。

But we will expect to stay ahead as we always do on the price cost. To supply chains, that continue to get incrementally better every quarter, but that doesn't mean they're back to what we would call normal and problems can prop up from time to time. But we think that incrementally better is what we see there. Remember, we're not open to big commodity exposures that can cause maybe some of our peers or other companies that -- we have a pretty good line of sight and great, every month, Jim and I are meeting with the OPCO teams hearing what we're seeing on inflation, but it's trending the right way, meaning the rate of inflation is coming down.

但我們預計將一如既往地在價格成本方面保持領先地位。對於供應鏈來說，每個季度都在逐步改善，但這並不意味著它們回到了我們所說的正常狀態，而且問題可能會不時出現。但我們認為，我們看到的情況是逐漸變得更好。請記住，我們不會對大宗商品持開放態度，這可能會導致我們的一些同行或其他公司——我們有很好的視野，而且很棒，每個月，吉姆和我都會與OPCO 團隊會面，了解什麼我們看到了通貨膨脹，但它的趨勢是正確的，這意味著通貨膨脹率正在下降。

Yes. And I would just add the proof points. Our gross margin expansion over the last several years has been very consistent. I think that speaks to our ability to manage the situation, not just on the price side, but on the cost side, and our working capital continues to get better and as we noted, as a percent of sales. So we're doing that while not having to have significant increases in working capital. In fact, our working capital is getting better. So I think what we'll see this year, Andy, just to add on to that is that our teams have done a really nice job.

是的。我只想添加證據點。過去幾年我們的毛利率成長非常穩定。我認為這說明了我們管理這種情況的能力，不僅是在價格方面，而且在成本方面，而且我們的營運資金持續改善，正如我們所指出的，佔銷售額的百分比。因此，我們這樣做的同時不必大幅增加營運資金。事實上，我們的營運資金正在變得更好。所以我認為今年我們會看到，安迪，補充一點是我們的團隊做得非常好。

We were just with all of our teams, a couple of weeks ago, and they're doing a really nice job on design savings as well. So not only on the negotiated savings but also looking at design, what we call our value engineering effort. And our value, I think we'll have a -- right now, our plans for value engineering would be, our cost reductions out of value engineering will be at a record in '24 when we deliver on that through the year.

幾週前，我們剛剛與所有團隊進行了交流，他們在設計節省方面也做得非常出色。因此，不僅要考慮協商的節省，還要考慮設計，也就是我們所謂的價值工程工作。我認為我們的價值是——現在，我們的價值工程計劃是，我們透過價值工程實現的成本削減將在 24 年達到創紀錄的水平，屆時我們將在全年實現這一目標。

So a number of things we're doing to continue to stay ahead of price cost knowing that probably price wasn't going to be able to stay at those levels that we had over the last few years. We've always been a good price company. So we'll continue to get our fair share. But I think what we're also trying to do is really push our teams hard on the opportunities on the cost side as well.

因此，我們正在做很多事情來繼續領先於價格成本，因為我們知道價格可能無法保持在過去幾年的水平。我們一直是一家價格優惠的公司。因此，我們將繼續獲得公平的份額。但我認為我們也在努力做的是真正推動我們的團隊在成本方面抓住機會。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And your next question comes from Scott Davis of Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

But anyways, the -- a lot of questions have been answered, but I'm kind of curious on ServiceChannel and ProVation. If you combine those deals, combined, they're pretty darn important to the kind of long-term growth story. But pretty dilutive the first year and change. But where do you think you'll be in 2024 versus a deal model and those things combined, will you be back in the positive on those things? And I would imagine the compound, right? I mean the growth is so -- it should be high enough, the margin is high enough that the returns on capital kind of go through kind of hockey stick at some point. Are we there yet when you think about 2024?

但無論如何，很多問題已經得到解答，但我對 ServiceChannel 和 ProVation 有點好奇。如果你把這些交易結合起來，它們對於長期成長故事來說非常重要。但第一年的稀釋度和變化相當大。但你認為 2024 年，與交易模式相比，你會處於什麼位置，將這些因素結合起來，你會在這些事情上恢復積極的態度嗎？我會想像這種化合物，對吧？我的意思是成長是這樣的——它應該足夠高，利潤率足夠高，以至於資本回報率在某個時候會經歷曲棍球棒的過程。當你想到 2024 年時，我們已經到了嗎？

Scott, a number of things. First of all, from a top line standpoint and really the bottom line, we think we're on track to running ahead. So -- but I think when you're talking about dilutive as the ROICs come from low single digits, they're in mid-single-digit territory and accelerate going forward. So we think those two are right on. But accretive now that the -- to the top line growth, so let me stop there and see if I understood that part of the question.

斯科特，有很多事情。首先，從頂線和底線的角度來看，我們認為我們正在走在前面。所以，但我認為，當你談論稀釋性時，因為投資回報率來自低個位數，它們處於中個位數區域，並且會加速前進。所以我們認為這兩點是正確的。但現在增加了——收入的成長，所以讓我停在這裡，看看我是否理解問題的這一部分。

Kind of, I guess, kind of my point, and perhaps you can do this after is that when you announced those deals, it was, I think that the language Jim used at the time is you'll be really happy we own these assets someday just given the growth rates. So I'm just kind of curious if you feel the same way?

我想，這就是我的觀點，也許你可以在宣布這些交易後這樣做，我認為吉姆當時使用的語言是，你會很高興我們擁有這些資產有一天，只要考慮到增長率。所以我很好奇你是否也有同樣的感覺？

Maybe just to give you a little bit. I think we were -- we anticipated, if I remember correctly in the first year, $0.10 of accretion, we ended up with $0.12 of accretion. So in the first year, we overdelivered on the accretion side. As Chuck mentioned, we're incredibly happy with these businesses, maybe just to take your point. You could see, and that's why we really put them on the chart. When you look at the growth rates in the businesses, they're very strong. ProVation was already a very high-margin business, one of the highest in Fortive already.

也許只是為了給你一點點。我認為，如果我第一年沒記錯的話，我們預計會增加 0.10 美元，最終我們會增加 0.12 美元。因此，在第一年，我們在成長方面超額交付了。正如查克所提到的，我們對這些業務非常滿意，也許只是為了理解你的觀點。你可以看到，這就是我們真正將它們放在圖表上的原因。當你觀察這些業務的成長率時，你會發現它們非常強勁。 ProVation 已經是一項利潤率非常高的業務，已經是 Fortive 利潤率最高的業務之一。

ServiceChannel, obviously, was a breakeven business. So there were some concern, could we get that business into the sort of accretive margin rate that we see that's so strong and in Fortive and obviously in IOS, and we're obviously there on the Fortive side, and they're approaching the IOS side.

顯然，ServiceChannel 是一項收支平衡的業務。所以有人擔心，我們能否讓該業務達到我們在 Fortive 和 IOS 中看到的如此強勁的增值利潤率，我們顯然是在 Fortive 方面，他們正在接近 IOS。

So we feel really good in that regard. And the other part of it, we're trying to really make a point in that -- in the prepared remarks, Scott. I know you understand this, but it's really how FBS has really made a difference here. You see the net dollar retention, where that's at now, the ARR growth. The really -- FBS has really made it both teams, really embraced FBS on the growth and innovation front. They've done a nice job in that in a short period of time. And that's where -- that's how you see the net dollar retention numbers, which are obviously extremely good, and the business is well positioned for the future. And to your point, also, they don't stop at 10% rates, right? They're going to continue. And if you've got 110% to a 112% plus net dollar retention margins in the structure and growing at this rate, obviously, the rates are going to go above 10% in the out years.

所以我們在這方面感覺非常好。另一方面，我們正試圖在準備好的發言中真正闡明這一點，斯科特。我知道您明白這一點，但這確實是 FBS 真正發揮作用的方式。您可以看到淨美元保留率，即目前的 ARR 成長。事實上，FBS 確實讓這兩個團隊都成為了團隊，在成長和創新方面真正擁抱了 FBS。他們在很短的時間內在這方面做得很好。這就是你看到的淨美元保留數字，這顯然非常好，並且該業務為未來做好了準備。而且就你的觀點而言，他們也不會止步於 10% 的利率，對吧？他們將繼續。如果你的結構中有 110% 到 112% 以上的淨美元留存利潤，並以這個速度增長，顯然，未來幾年利率將超過 10%。

Yes. That makes a lot of sense. Just real quick guys. Does Invetech get worse before it gets better? Just partially just given Sprague's question on kind of the wind down or the sale of the design business, but these things you're selling into some pretty tough markets. But does that end up getting a little bit worse before it gets better in '24? Are we already there?

是的。這很有意義。只是非常快的傢伙。英維泰在變得更好之前會變得更糟嗎？只是部分地考慮了斯普拉格關於設計業務的結束或出售的問題，但這些東西你正在向一些相當艱難的市場出售。但在 24 年情況好轉之前，情況會變得更糟嗎？我們已經到了嗎？

I think we're going to run into some easier comparison in the second half, and so it will stop being a tough compare for us. And I think that we need some of the dynamics of those markets to recover. Keep in mind, this is a business that's less than $100 million in total. And so it's not quite as impactful as bringing some of these other movers like EA and ASP right now.

我認為我們將在下半場進行一些更容易的比較，因此這對我們來說將不再是一個艱難的比較。我認為我們需要這些市場的一些活力來恢復。請記住，這是一項總價值不到 1 億美元的業務。因此，它的影響力不如現在引入 EA 和 ASP 等其他一些推動者。

I would say, Scott, embedded in the PT core growth outlook for Q1, there's about a 1% headwind to core growth in PT due to Invetech.

Scott，我想說，在第一季 PT 核心成長前景中，由於 Invetech，PT 核心成長面臨約 1% 的阻力。

It's a statement that you've had a good quarter when we have to pick on a $100 million business, right? So a good job.

當我們必須選擇一項價值 1 億美元的業務時，這表明您已經度過了一個不錯的季度，對嗎？所以乾得好。

And your next question comes from the line of Rob Mason from Baird.

您的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的 Rob Mason。

I may have missed this, Jim. But how do you think about your overall software growth in '24 relative to the 2% to 4% core growth? How does that roll up?

我可能錯過了這一點，吉姆。但是，相對於 2% 到 4% 的核心成長，您如何看待 24 年整體軟體成長？這是怎麼捲起來的？

Yes. We feel really good about it, Rob. I think when you look at not only maybe starting with '23, we had really good growth in '23. We'll have high single-digit software growth in '24. So when we look at the ARR numbers, they're good. Obviously, we're just talking about ServiceChannel and ProVation in the previous question. But I think across the board, FAL's going to have high single-digit growth. So we feel good about where it's at. I think it's a testament to the strength of how FBS is really adding value, and it's a testament to those businesses and the work they're doing. We didn't talk a lot about AI, but we'll start to see as we get into late '24 and '25, so some of our Data Analytics and AI solutions are also going to help the growth rates there.

是的。我們對此感覺非常好，羅布。我認為，當你不僅看到從 23 年開始的時候，我們在 23 年也取得了非常好的成長。我們將在 2024 年實現高個位數的軟體成長。因此，當我們查看 ARR 數字時，它們非常好。顯然，我們在上一個問題中只是討論 ServiceChannel 和 ProVation。但我認為總體而言，FAL 將實現高個位數成長。所以我們對它的位置感覺很好。我認為這證明了 FBS 真正增加價值的實力，也證明了這些企業及其所做的工作。我們沒有過多談論人工智慧，但隨著進入 24 世紀末和 25 年，我們將開始看到，因此我們的一些數據分析和人工智慧解決方案也將有助於那裡的成長率。

So we're in a very good place. And I think the strategy is playing out the way we anticipated, which is those businesses would have more durable, higher growth rates, and ultimately, that would benefit Fortive not only on the growth side, but on the margin front. We certainly saw that in '23, you absolutely see that with our double-digit EPS kind of numbers that we'll show in '24.

所以我們處於一個非常好的位置。我認為該策略正在按照我們預期的方式發揮作用，即這些業務將擁有更持久、更高的成長率，最終，這不僅會使 Fortive 受益，而且會在利潤方面受益。我們當然在 23 年看到了這一點，你也絕對會看到我們將在 24 年展示的兩位數 EPS 數據。

Very good. Just as a follow-up, specific to Sensing. How do you -- some of your semi cap customers are certainly starting to tee up expectations around a better '25. I assume that's -- you didn't mention that end market, specifically aerospace, defense, food and beverage, maybe do better this year. But how are you thinking about that market turning in that business for you, semi-cap equipment?

非常好。作為後續行動，專門針對感測。您怎麼樣——您的一些半上限客戶肯定開始對更好的 25 年抱有期望。我認為，您沒有提到終端市場，特別是航空航太、國防、食品和飲料，今年可能會表現得更好。但是，您如何看待該市場為您帶來該業務（半上限設備）的情況？

Yes. Well, in Sensing, we're about 6 quarters of negative order rates. So we don't anticipate to see the overall over rate start to change the book-to-bill there probably in and around 1, in the second half, for sure, probably starting in sometime in the second quarter. So we start to see things move. We didn't talk about it, but number, maybe more broadly about Sensing. One of the things we saw in the fourth quarter was rather than get 12-month blanket orders which we would typically get with OEMs, we got 3-month blanket orders. So we will see that those orders pick up probably in the second half. So that's the state of the world. Relative to the semi index and where it's at, we're starting to see the green shoots of customers that are starting to talk about orders and our businesses that are maybe in the earlier stages there, a little bit of Setra, a little bit our KEITHLEY business at Tektronix. We're starting to see customers talking about the second half of this year. So we would -- I would think that just overall, we'll start to see some things. We're not anticipating a big step-up there. We'll let the FAL patterns determine that. But we do anticipate at least seeing some of that turn in the second half of the year.

是的。嗯，在感測領域，我們大約有 6 個季度的訂單率為負。因此，我們預計整體超額率可能不會在下半年左右開始改變訂單出貨量，當然，可能會在第二季的某個時候開始。所以我們開始看到事情發生變化。我們沒有談論它，而是談論數字，也許更廣泛地談論感測。我們在第四季度看到的一件事是，我們獲得的不是通常從 OEM 獲得的 12 個月的一攬子訂單，而是 3 個月的訂單。因此，我們將看到這些訂單可能會在下半年回升。這就是世界的現狀。相對於半指數及其所在位置，我們開始看到客戶的萌芽，他們開始談論訂單和我們的業務，這些業務可能處於早期階段，有一點 Setra，一點我們的業務。泰克公司的 KEITHLEY 業務。我們開始看到客戶談論今年下半年的情況。所以我們——我認為總的來說，我們將開始看到一些事情。我們預計不會有很大的進步。我們將讓 FAL 模式來確定這一點。但我們確實預計至少會在今年下半年看到一些轉變。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓（Andrew Obin）。

Yes. Just maybe -- and I don't know if, when you were talking before Sensing, you were specifically referring to Sensing or Tek. But maybe just to confirm, what's happening with Tek book-to-bill? And what kind of exit rate are we at Tek, right? Just sort of if you look at the peer orders, Keysight, NATI, you still have orders down, let's call it, mid-teens. So to understand correctly, we're thinking that based on the feedback we're getting on the comps, revenues will be up low to mid-single digits next year, right? Is that the right framework?

是的。只是也許 - 我不知道當您在 Sensing 之前談論時，您是否特意指的是 Sensing 或 Tek。但也許只是為了確認一下，Tek 按訂單出貨的情況怎麼樣？我們 Tek 的退出率是多少，對嗎？如果你看看同業訂單，是德科技、NATI，你仍然有訂單下降，我們可以稱之為，十幾歲左右。因此，為了正確理解，我們認為根據我們從比較中獲得的回饋，明年的收入將上升到中個位數，對吧？這是正確的框架嗎？

For Tektronix, we think business will be about low single digits for the year. So just from a revenue perspective, we've had 5 quarters of negative orders there. We'd probably see that in the first quarter. We'll start to see things turn. The book-to-bill starts to turn in and in around the second quarter there. So just to kind of give you a sense. And that's -- we've had aerospace and defense has been good. It continues to be good. But it's mostly broadly around electronics and things like that. So some semiconductor customers as well. So -- and the comments I made around Sensing, semi, I also made a comment about KEITHLEY, which is the most of the exposure we have in Tektronix relative the semiconductor.

對泰克來說，我們認為今年的業務量將約為個位數。因此，僅從營收角度來看，我們已經有 5 個季度出現負訂單。我們可能會在第一季看到這一點。我們將開始看到事情發生轉變。訂單到帳單在第二季左右開始週轉。只是為了給你一種感覺。那就是——我們的航空航太和國防事業一直都很好。它仍然很好。但它主要廣泛圍繞著電子產品和類似的東西。一些半導體客戶也是如此。因此，在我圍繞感測、半導體發表的評論中，我還對 KEITHLEY 發表了評論，這是我們在泰克公司相對於半導體的最多曝光。

So we think the business is at a good place. Obviously, low single digits in the fourth quarter against a 20% comp from a year prior. So still in a good place, record year for Tektronix from a revenue perspective. But probably a quarter or 2 here of absorbing, continuing to absorb some of the market dynamics we described and -- but the business is in a good shape and exit rate into '25 probably in a good place.

所以我們認為業務處於一個好的位置。顯然，與去年同期相比，第四季的成長率為 20%，較低。因此，從收入角度來看，泰克今年仍處於創紀錄的良好狀態。但可能有四分之一或兩個季度的吸收，繼續吸收我們描述的一些市場動態——但業務狀況良好，進入 25 年的退出率可能也不錯。

And where are we on book-to-bill, sorry?

抱歉，我們的訂單到帳單進度如何？

Well, I think in fourth quarter, probably 0.85, probably, but we're always below 1 in the fourth quarter.

嗯，我認為在第四季度，可能是 0.85，但我們在第四季度總是低於 1。

Got you. And just a broader question because it's certainly been a weird '23 and it seems like '24 is going to be strange as well. But I think at your Analyst Day, and it's just sort of going back to Julian's question, you did outline the '25 target, but you also outlined longer-term targets, right? And if you look at '25 target with sort of, I think, CAGR is 12.5% and longer-term targets, 13.5%, right? We printed 9% EPS growth last year. This year, target is 9% to 12%. I totally get this. There's cushion here, right? Invetech is out of the way.

明白你了。這是一個更廣泛的問題，因為 23 年確實很奇怪，而且 24 年似乎也會很奇怪。但我認為在您的分析師日，這有點回到朱利安的問題，您確實概述了 25 年的目標，但您也概述了長期目標，對吧？如果你看看 25 年的目標，我認為複合年增長率是 12.5%，長期目標是 13.5%，對吧？去年我們公佈的每股收益成長了 9%。今年的目標是9%至12%。我完全明白這一點。這裡有緩衝墊，對嗎？英維泰已經出局了。

We're probably going to do some M&A. But from your perspective, what needs to sort of go back to normal change? From a macro standpoint, what's the biggest lever that needs to change, right, to sort of get back "normal" where you guys can sort of accelerate EPS growth from what we've seen last year? And what we're sort of guiding to this year? Or is that all just M&A? Sorry for an extensive question, but yes.

我們可能會進行一些併購。但從您的角度來看，需要什麼才能恢復正常的改變呢？從宏觀角度來看，需要改變的最大槓桿是什麼，對吧，為了恢復“正常”，你們可以從去年看到的情況加速每股收益的成長？今年我們的指導方針是什麼？或者這只是併購？抱歉問了一個廣泛的問題，但是是的。

Well, I think when you look at our track record over 4 years, and what we try to do is not take any one particular year because when you average them out, when we're talking about the out years here, we're talking about the average, right? And when you look at the average, they're not too different future versus prior history. So I think what passes a bit pull-off here, if you look at the success we've had over the last 4 years relative to EPS growth and you sort of fast forward, we continue to use our free cash flow. Obviously, we had interest expense a little higher last year than we anticipated, which is why that number was single digit will delever through the year, as you know. So that has some improvements as well.

好吧，我認為，當你看看我們過去4 年的業績記錄時，我們試圖做的不是選擇任何特定的一年，因為當你將它們平均時，當我們在這裡談論過去的幾年時，我們正在談論大約是平均水平，對嗎？當你觀察平均值時，你會發現未來與之前的歷史並沒有太大的不同。因此，我認為，如果你看看我們在過去 4 年相對於每股盈餘成長所取得的成功，然後快速前進，我們會繼續使用我們的自由現金流。顯然，我們去年的利息支出比我們預期的要高一些，這就是為什麼這個數字是個位數的原因，正如你所知，這個數字將在今年減少。所以這也有一些改進。

But I think at the end of the day, we're in a very good place relative to those targets, and I think this reflects it. So there's obviously -- the macro is always a geopolitical situation. It's probably always one of those things you think about, but that's why we said in the prepared remarks, that we've got some scenarios to continue to be agile and dynamic based on what the economic situation looks like, it's the best way to say it. So Software and Healthcare is going to continue to compound at higher rates of growth and higher rates of margin expansion, and that's going to continue to mix up the portfolio, particularly if you take a longer period of time, like in '28.

但我認為最終，我們相對於這些目標處於非常好的位置，我認為這反映了這一點。因此，很明顯，宏觀始終是地緣政治局勢。這可能始終是您考慮的事情之一，但這就是為什麼我們在準備好的發言中說，我們有一些情景可以根據經濟狀況繼續保持敏捷和動態，這是最好的說法它。因此，軟體和醫療保健將繼續以更高的成長率和更高的利潤擴張率複合，這將繼續混合投資組合，特別是如果你需要更長的時間，例如 28 年。

So I would say those are the dynamics. You've got to see -- continue to see those businesses continue to get better, like they will this year, like they've been doing and then continue to do the things that we've been doing relative to productivity and innovation that will continue to help us work through the various markets, secular drivers that we've attached ourselves to broaden the workflow.

所以我想說這些都是動力。你必須看到——繼續看到這些企業繼續變得更好，就像今年一樣，就像他們一直在做的那樣，然後繼續做我們一直在做的與生產力和創新相關的事情，這些事情將繼續幫助我們應對各種市場和我們為拓寬工作流程而附加的長期驅動因素。

And I think the last thing I'd say, Andrew, is the 5 deals that we did over the last 30 or 3 months or so, they all have an opportunity to continue to accelerate our compounding. They're all attached to good growth drivers. They're additive growth year and from a margin perspective, from a bolt-on standpoint, they're all making their associated businesses better over time. And when you take a few years out, they're going to become a bigger part of that. So some of them are small. But if you take a 2-year or 3-year out period, you're in a -- they'll be additive as well. So -- and then as I said, the M&A environment is still -- looks like it continues to get better here, and we're excited about that.

安德魯，我想我要說的最後一件事是我們在過去 30 或 3 個月左右所做的 5 筆交易，它們都有機會繼續加速我們的複利。它們都依賴於良好的成長動力。它們是附加成長的一年，從利潤的角度來看，從補充的角度來看，隨著時間的推移，它們都在使相關業務變得更好。當你離開幾年後，他們將成為其中更重要的一部分。所以其中一些很小。但如果你休學 2 年或 3 年，你就處​​於一個——它們也會增加。因此，正如我所說，併購環境看起來仍然在繼續好轉，我們對此感到興奮。

And if I could just squeeze in one more. Should we start to think about Fortive as increasing dividends annually and some framework around share buybacks, maybe offsetting share issuance as long as we're there?

如果我能再擠進一顆就好了。我們是否應該開始考慮將 Fortive 視為每年增加股利以及圍繞股票回購的一些框架，也許只要我們在那裡就可以抵銷股票發行？

Well, in terms of the dividends, what we've tried to signal is that as our free cash flow and earnings per share increase, our -- you'll see our dividends increase on the same trajectory. With share buybacks, what we did is we restock to where we had, over the last 2 years, we've been opportunistic on buying some shares back. And we just went back to the level we had 2 years ago. M&A is still the priority.

嗯，就股息而言，我們試圖表明的是，隨著我們的自由現金流和每股盈餘的增加，我們的股息也會以同樣的軌跡成長。透過股票回購，我們所做的就是將庫存重新調整到過去兩年的水平，我們一直在機會主義地回購一些股票。我們剛剛回到了兩年前的水平。併購仍是首要任務。

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Joe Giordano。

Just a couple on the M&A side and capital deployment kind of piggybacking on what Scott was talking about. So I mean, you highlighted ProVation and you highlighted ServiceChannel.

只有併購方面和資本部署方面的一些人在某種程度上順應了斯科特所說的內容。所以我的意思是，您突出顯示了 ProVation，並且突出顯示了 ServiceChannel。

And I think it's pretty clear as to how companies like that can lever up growth and they can accrete to EPS and what they can do to margins. I'm just curious on like the ROIC of these things. Because I think like on ProVation, the math was something like it needed to grow 15% a year and have margins expand to like almost to mid-50s from the mid-30s or something like that to hit like a 7.5% return in year 5, like, it looks like at least that slide suggests it's under those targets. So like how do you evaluate where you are in ROIC on deals like that?

我認為，這樣的公司如何拉動成長、增加每股盈餘以及如何提高利潤率，這一點非常清楚。我只是對這些東西的投資報酬率感到好奇。因為我認為就像 ProVation 一樣，數學上需要每年增長 15％，並且利潤率從 30 多歲左右擴大到幾乎 50 多歲，或者在第 5 年達到 7.5％ 的回報率，就像，看起來至少這張幻燈片表示它處於這些目標之下。那麼，您如何評估此類交易的投資報酬率（ROIC）水準？

First of all, we look at our ROICs and go back to looking at where the revenue needs to be. Margins start to upgrade on ProVation as talked about, and we're running ahead of where we thought we'd be on the top line. So maybe talk off-line exactly what the original assumptions were. But that's where we know we're at for both of those deals. And so we're on track or ahead of where we thought we'd be a couple of years in. I think the -- so I think that's as simple as I can put it.

首先，我們來看看我們的投資報酬率，然後再回頭看看收入需要在哪裡。如同所討論的，ProVation 的利潤率開始升級，我們的營收已經超出了我們的預期。所以也許可以離線討論最初的假設是什麼。但這就是我們知道我們在這兩筆交易中的立場。因此，我們正走在正軌上，或者說領先於我們預計的幾年後的水平。我認為——所以我認為這就是我能說的最簡單的了。

Joe, I would just maybe just add on is the reason why we highlighted these 2 companies 2 years out is because when we bought the companies, there were some skeptics, quite frankly, people didn't think we could get ServiceChannel margins into the 20s as quickly as we did. People didn't think that ProVation would grow during COVID the way it did. So yes, I wouldn't necessarily say these were slammed up because there were some doubters out there. And I think what we tried to do in -- with 2 years in, it suggests, or to demonstrate that, hey, we're exactly where we thought we were in case we're ahead of the game. We were ahead of the game first year out, as I mentioned in the previous call relative to EPS.

喬，我想補充一點，我們之所以在兩年後強調這兩家公司，是因為當我們收購這些公司時，有一些懷疑論者，坦白說，人們認為我們無法將ServiceChannel 的利潤率提高到20 多歲和我們一樣快。人們並不認為 ProVation 會在新冠疫情期間像現在這樣發展。所以，是的，我不一定會說這些被猛烈抨擊，因為存在一些懷疑者。我認為我們在兩年內試圖做的事情，它表明，或者證明，嘿，我們正是我們認為的地方，以防我們領先對手。正如我在之前有關每股收益的電話會議中提到的那樣，我們第一年就處於領先地位。

So these businesses are in good shape. And as we highlighted back in May, these are -- this is consistent with a number of the other deals, and that's really what you see in '24 is the portfolio durability based on the success of those deals. So I would just add that into the broader view of M&A and how it's continuing to add -- ROIC continue to get better and it's adding more durability and capability of the organization.

所以這些企業的狀況都很好。正如我們在 5 月所強調的那樣，這些與其他一些交易是一致的，這就是你在 24 年看到的基於這些交易成功的投資組合耐久性。因此，我只想將這一點添加到更廣泛的併購視野中，以及它如何繼續增加——ROIC 繼續變得更好，並且它增加了組織的耐用性和能力。

And just to clarify, this came up earlier, but the combined ROIC and certainly for ProVation is already in the mid-single digit for '24-range.

需要澄清的是，這個問題早些時候就出現過，但綜合投入資本回報率（ROIC）和 ProVation 的綜合投入資本回報率（ROIC）已經達到了 24 歲範圍的中個位數。

Maybe to piggyback on that, like, you've done deals now across like SaaS-type deals, and you've done hardware-centric deals as you kind of run FBS through these businesses, I mean, it flexes different muscles that you need to use depending on these. Are you finding like one type of deal somewhat easier to accomplish the goals that you set up at the outset?

也許以此為契機，例如，你現在已經完成了類似SaaS 類型的交易，並且你已經完成了以硬體為中心的交易，因為你在這些業務中運行FBS，我的意思是，它展示了你需要的不同力量是根據這些來使用。您是否發現某種類型的交易更容易實現您一開始設定的目標？

Well, I would say, certainly, hardware deals is something we've been doing for 20 years and there's a whole -- to use your muscle framework. There's a lot of muscle around that. You saw that in, even with some of the COVID challenges in ASP, our continued ability to do things like really improve the free cash returns on the business because of working capital. So I would certainly say that those are things that we've done for a long time. But I think, and this is really one of the reasons why we put it on the slide, is that we've really built tremendous capability around software, FBS for Software. And we didn't talk about it, but we've now got an FBS suite of AI tools, which are really helping drive innovation, drive commercial activities for the Software broadly, but also for the Software businesses.

嗯，我想說，當然，硬體交易是我們 20 年來一直在做的事情，而且有一個整體——使用你的肌肉框架。周圍有很多肌肉。您可以看到，即使 ASP 面臨一些新冠疫情挑戰，我們仍然有能力繼續做一些事情，例如由於營運資金而真正提高業務的自由現金回報。所以我肯定會說，這些都是我們長期以來所做的事情。但我認為，這確實是我們將其放在投影片上的原因之一，那就是我們確實圍繞軟體（FBS for Software）建立了巨大的能力。我們沒有談論它，但我們現在有了一套 FBS 人工智慧工具套件，它確實有助於推動創新，廣泛推動軟體的商業活動，也有利於軟體業務。

So we've really, I'm really proud. I said it in the prepared remarks around how the FBS in and of itself is getting better. And that really means more broadly. It's really, it is, I think what we're really proud of is the fact that if you look at the Fortive's portfolio today, FBS needs as much a Software business or a Healthcare business or a Traditional Industrial business. FBS may mean different tools. It may mean different applications, but the rigor and discipline is exactly the same.

所以我們真的，我真的很自豪。我在準備好的關於 FBS 本身如何變得更好的評論中說過這一點。這確實意味著更廣泛的意義。確實，我認為我們真正感到自豪的是，如果你看看今天 Fortive 的投資組合，FBS 需要同樣多的軟體業務、醫療保健業務或傳統工業業務。 FBS 可能意味著不同的工具。它可能意味著不同的應用，但嚴格性和紀律是完全相同的。

And we do have time for one last question. Again, this will be our last question of the day. The line comes, I'm sorry, the question comes from Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.

我們確實有時間回答最後一個問題。同樣，這將是我們今天的最後一個問題。電話來了，對不起，問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

First question is just related to the price volume composition of organic and implying volumes kind of flat to up 1% for the year. And I'm trying to understand where kind of the upside risk might sit on the volume side and whether the embedded assumptions are more sort of moving sideways and there can be some upside risk on maybe easier short-cycle comps in the back half of the year? Or just how you've thought about that volume piece of the equation and if there's anything embedded within that as things getting better over the course of '24?

第一個問題與有機食品的價格數量組成有關，這意味著今年的數量持平至 1%。我試圖了解成交量方面可能存在哪些上行風險，以及嵌入的假設是否更多地橫向移動，以及後半段可能更容易的短週期比較可能存在一些上行風險年？或者你是如何看待這個等式中的體積部分的，以及隨著 24 年事情變得更好，其中是否嵌入了任何東西？

I think when you look at -- and I'll take the hardware business here. When you look at the hardware businesses, there's not a big inflection point as we go through the year. So probably I would say, we don't see a big volume, we don't need a big volume inflection as we go through the year simply because of that. I would say, secondly, we're not really expecting a lot of restocking here. So I would say there's probably some volume upside to restocking if we were to see that. But I would say we're certainly not counting on that. And if it was probably more a second half dynamic.

我想當你看到時，我會在這裡討論硬體業務。當你觀察硬體業務時，你會發現這一年並沒有出現大的轉折點。所以我可能會說，我們沒有看到很大的交易量，因此我們在這一年中不需要很大的交易量變化。其次，我想說的是，我們並不真正期望這裡會有大量補貨。因此，我想說，如果我們看到這種情況，補貨量可能會有一定的上升空間。但我想說我們肯定不會指望這一點。如果下半場更有活力的話。

Okay. Makes sense. And then on the productivity front, can you just talk about the margin contribution you anticipate from productivity in '24 and the degree to which that's kind of carryover from '23 actions or additional actions to drive kind of more productivity gains in 2024?

好的。說得通。然後在生產力方面，您能否談談您對 24 年生產力的預期利潤貢獻，以及從 23 行動或其他行動到 2024 年推動生產力進一步提高的結轉程度？

Yes. I think that normally, we would expect 40% incremental margins. And for the year, we're going to end up at 45%. There's some puts and takes earlier in the year that we've seen, but we're seeing probably if you think about probably $0.07 or $0.08 of productivity coming into from those actions that are selling into 2024.

是的。我認為通常情況下，我們預計利潤率會增加 40%。今年，我們的目標是 45%。今年早些時候我們已經看到了一些看跌期權和賣出期權，但如果你考慮到 2024 年這些銷售行動可能會帶來 0.07 美元或 0.08 美元的生產力提升，那麼我們可能會看到。

Meaning actions you've already taken, and so that's just carrying into '24.

意思是你已經採取的行動，所以這只是延續到'24。

We're done with the productivity actions, just the benefits are coming in, not that we're taking any more. Sorry about that.

我們已經完成了生產力行動，只是帶來了好處，而不是我們要採取更多行動。對於那個很抱歉。

And I'll now turn the floor back over to Jim Lico for closing remarks.

現在我將把發言權交還給吉姆·利科（Jim Lico）作結束語。

Thanks, Kristina, and thanks, everyone, for taking the time today. I know it's a busy day for all of you. Hopefully, what you heard today was our -- really the benefits of the work we've been doing for several years, both in '23 and how we anticipate '24 to play out. So we're -- we feel very, very comfortable with where we stand today. Lots going on in the world, as many of you know.

謝謝克里斯蒂娜，謝謝大家今天抽出時間。我知道這對你們所有人來說都是忙碌的一天。希望您今天聽到的是我們的——真正的我們多年來所做的工作的好處，無論是在 23 年還是我們預計 24 年將如何發揮作用。所以我們對今天的處境感到非常非常滿意。正如你們許多人所知，世界上正在發生很多事情。

But I think how we built and constructed the portfolio over the last several years, post-Vontier, is we feel and expect to have a good setup for this year. We're certainly around for any questions. We want to thank everyone, for your support for '23. We know we'll probably see a lot of you out on the road here over the next few weeks. We look forward to that. And obviously, our team is available for questions and follow-up and then over the next several days. So thanks. Have a great day. Have a great earnings season, and we'll see you on the road.

但我認為，在過去幾年裡，在馮蒂爾之後，我們如何建立和建立了投資組合，我們感覺並期望今年有一個良好的設置。我們當然會隨時解答您的任何問題。我們要感謝大家對 '23 的支持。我們知道，在接下來的幾週內，我們可能會在路上見到你們很多人。我們對此充滿期待。顯然，我們的團隊可以在接下來的幾天內回答問題並進行後續追蹤。那謝謝啦。祝你有美好的一天。祝您財報季愉快，我們路上見。

Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。