Fortive Corp (FTV) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

My name is Julianne, and I will be your conference facilitator this afternoon. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Fortive Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

我叫 Julianne，今天下午我將擔任你們的會議主持人。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 Fortive Corporation 2022 年第四季度收益結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Elena Rosman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Rosman, you may begin your conference.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Elena Rosman 女士。羅斯曼女士，你可以開始你的會議了。

Thank you, Julianne, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call.

謝謝 Julianne，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

With us today are Jim Lico, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chuck McLaughlin, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我們在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Lico；和我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Chuck McLaughlin。

We present certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. Information required by Regulation G are available on the Investors section of our website at fortive.com. Our statements on period-to-period increases or decreases refer to year-over-year comparisons on a continuing operations basis.

我們在今天的電話會議上提出了某些非 GAAP 財務措施。 G 條例要求的信息可在我們網站 fortive.com 的投資者部分獲取。我們關於同期增減的陳述是指在持續經營的基礎上進行的同比比較。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, including statements regarding events or developments that we expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and actual results might differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today. Information regarding these risk factors is available in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，包括關於我們預期或預期將或可能在未來發生的事件或發展的陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在許多風險，實際結果可能與我們今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。有關這些風險因素的信息可在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到，包括我們截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告。這些前瞻性陳述僅在作出之日發表，我們不承擔任何更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jim.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Elena. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'll begin on Slide 3.

謝謝，埃琳娜。大家好，感謝您加入我們。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。

Fortive had another quarter of outstanding operating performance in Q4, delivering 14% core revenue growth, 50 and 110 basis points of adjusted gross and operating margin expansion, respectively, 11% adjusted earnings per share growth, 62% free cash flow growth, all ahead of the guidance we gave in October.

Fortive 在第四季度的經營業績又一季度表現出色，核心收入增長 14%，調整後毛利率和營業利潤率分別增長 50 和 110 個基點，調整後每股收益增長 11%，自由現金流增長 62%，全部領先我們在 10 月份給出的指導。

Our strong purpose-driven culture is supported by our relentless focus on executing for customers and shareholders in 2022. The continued evolution of our portfolio within the markets we play is characterized by strong secular drivers, which powered 9% ARR growth in our software businesses and backlog expansion in our hardware products businesses, contributing to record core revenue growth for the year.

我們堅定不移地專注於在 2022 年為客戶和股東執行任務，這支持了我們強大的以目標為導向的文化。我們的投資組合在我們所參與的市場中的持續發展以強大的長期驅動力為特徵，這推動了我們軟件業務的 ARR 增長 9%，以及我們硬件產品業務的積壓擴張，為本年度創紀錄的核心收入增長做出了貢獻。

Our performance would not have been possible without the dedication of our 18,000 team members around the world. Team overcame continued supply chain and inflationary challenges, which will likely linger into 2023. We believe the power of the Fortive Business System is a key differentiator, contributing to more profitable growth, record gross margins and free cash flow generation. As we look forward, we're excited to update you on the progress we've made on our multiyear targets and strategies that are driving outperformance at our upcoming Investor Day in May.

如果沒有我們遍布全球的 18,000 名團隊成員的奉獻精神，我們的業績是不可能實現的。團隊克服了持續的供應鍊和通貨膨脹挑戰，這些挑戰可能會持續到 2023 年。我們相信 Fortive 業務系統的力量是一個關鍵的差異化因素，有助於實現更高的盈利增長、創紀錄的毛利率和自由現金流的產生。展望未來，我們很高興在 5 月即將到來的投資者日向您介紹我們在多年目標和戰略方面取得的進展，這些目標和戰略正在推動我們取得優異成績。

Turning to Slide 4. Even against the backdrop of a difficult macro in 2022, Fortive continue to validate the investment thesis that we have pursued since 2016, delivering core growth of 10% and 20% on a 2-year stack basis, accelerating over the last few years. Our portfolio transformation has also driven approximately 1,000 basis points of gross margin expansion since 2016, which has translated into higher operating margins and provides further opportunity to improve margins in the years to come.

轉到幻燈片 4。即使在 2022 年宏觀經濟困難的背景下，Fortive 繼續驗證我們自 2016 年以來追求的投資論點，在 2 年堆棧基礎上實現 10% 和 20% 的核心增長，加速超過最近幾年。自 2016 年以來，我們的投資組合轉型還推動了約 1,000 個基點的毛利率擴張，這轉化為更高的營業利潤率，並為未來幾年提高利潤率提供了進一步的機會。

We also delivered free cash flow growth of $1.2 billion, with margins approaching 21%, underscoring our ability to compound cash flow off a higher base, a key Fortive differentiator and value creation driver.

我們還實現了 12 億美元的自由現金流增長，利潤率接近 21%，凸顯了我們在更高基數上複合現金流的能力，這是 Fortive 的一個關鍵差異化因素和價值創造驅動力。

In summary, we had said that 2022 would be a show-me year, and we delivered strong results across all of our segments, which I will highlight in more detail on the next few slides, starting with Intelligent Operating Solutions on Slide 5.

總而言之，我們說過 2022 年將是展示自我的一年，我們在所有細分市場都取得了強勁的成果，我將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中更詳細地強調這一點，從幻燈片 5 上的智能運營解決方案開始。

IOS grew core revenue by 13%, representing its third consecutive quarter of double-digit core revenue growth. We had good growth in all regions, with low double-digit growth in North America, mid-teens growth in Western Europe and high 20s growth in China. Double-digit core growth in every workflow, combined with our rigorous application of FBS, drove 330 basis points of core operating margin expansion, more than offsetting inflation and FX headwinds.

IOS 的核心收入增長了 13%，這是其連續第三個季度實現兩位數的核心收入增長。我們在所有地區都有良好的增長，北美的低兩位數增長，西歐的中等增長和中國的 20 多歲高增長。每個工作流程的兩位數核心增長，加上我們對 FBS 的嚴格應用，推動核心運營利潤率增長 330 個基點，抵消了通貨膨脹和外匯逆風。

Looking at our performance drivers by workflow and connected reliability, [BlueCap low teens] growth, supported by a strong backlog position and continued success with their new solar and calibration products serving the energy, renewables and electric vehicle markets.

通過工作流程和連接的可靠性來查看我們的績效驅動因素，[BlueCap low teens] 增長，得到強大的積壓位置的支持，以及他們為能源、可再生能源和電動汽車市場提供的新太陽能和校準產品的持續成功。

POS remains strong in every region. However, we expect to see some slowing as supply chains continue to normalize. Strong end market demand drove double-digit SaaS revenue growth in the quarter with a record net dollar retention of approximately 106%.

POS 在每個地區都保持強勁。然而，隨著供應鏈繼續正常化，我們預計會出現一些放緩。強勁的終端市場需求推動本季度 SaaS 收入實現兩位數增長，淨美元保留率達到創紀錄的約 106%。

In EHS, revenue grew by high teens with strong contributions from both Industrial Scientific and Intellect. Industrial Scientific revenue grew approximately 20%, as strong demand was supplemented by record iNet expansion and higher instrument shipments following the resolution of key supply chain issues at the end of the third quarter.

在 EHS 方面，由於英思科和 Intellect 的巨大貢獻，收入增長了十幾歲。英思科的收入增長了約 20%，因為在第三季度末關鍵供應鏈問題得到解決後，創紀錄的 iNet 擴張和更高的儀器出貨量補充了強勁的需求。

Meanwhile, Intellect posted another quarter of low double-digit SaaS growth. They have successfully deployed FBS initiatives to accelerate software implementations and create upsell opportunities to customers.

與此同時，Intellect 發布了另一個季度的低兩位數 SaaS 增長。他們已成功部署 FBS 計劃以加速軟件實施並為客戶創造追加銷售機會。

Moving to facilities and asset life cycle. We had low double-digit growth in Q4. Vontier revenues once again increased double digits as customer labor shortages and deferred facility maintenance continue to drive higher volume through the company's job order contracting platform.

轉向設施和資產生命週期。我們在第四季度實現了兩位數的低增長。由於客戶勞動力短缺和延期設施維護繼續通過公司的工作訂單承包平台推動更高的銷量，Vontier 的收入再次增長了兩位數。

Accruent SaaS revenue grew by mid-single digits, despite a sizable headwind from end-of-life products. Accruent continues to see good success from its recent go-to-market focus in asset management and workplace solutions to enable mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2023. And ServiceChannel saw another quarter of double-digit revenue growth taking their full year growth rate to just under 50%.

儘管報廢產品帶來了相當大的阻力，但 Accruent SaaS 收入仍以中等個位數增長。 Accruent 最近將重點放在資產管理和工作場所解決方案上，繼續取得良好的成功，從而在 2023 年實現中等個位數的收入增長。ServiceChannel 的全年增長率又實現了四分之一的兩位數收入增長略低於 50%。

As a reminder, we are transitioning from a largely pass-through revenue base to a better long-term business model that includes more recurring SaaS revenue. This change will create a short-term revenue headwind in the first quarter. However, we expect ServiceChannel to remain a strong double-digit growth business in 2023 with above 20% adjusted operating margin.

提醒一下，我們正在從主要通過傳遞的收入基礎過渡到更好的長期商業模式，其中包括更多的經常性 SaaS 收入。這一變化將在第一季度造成短期收入逆風。然而，我們預計 ServiceChannel 業務在 2023 年仍將保持兩位數的強勁增長，調整後的營業利潤率將超過 20%。

Turning now to Slide 6. Precision Technologies delivered another strong quarter of double-digit revenue growth in every business. Core revenues increased 20%, driven by high teens growth in North America and greater than 20% growth in both Western Europe and China. PT also delivered 240 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion with higher volume, price realization and productivity more than offsetting inflation in FX.

現在轉到幻燈片 6。Precision Technologies 在每項業務中又實現了強勁的兩位數收入增長。核心收入增長了 20%，這主要得益於北美的青少年高速增長以及西歐和中國超過 20% 的增長。 PT 還實現了 240 個基點的調整後營業利潤率增長，銷量、價格實現和生產率高於抵消外匯通貨膨脹。

Some highlights for the quarter include: record quarterly revenues and operating profit at Tektronix, which continue to benefit robust backlog, driven by new product launches and share gains and new entry in mainstream (inaudible). We saw orders slow in Q4 as expected as demand normalizes following the 40% growth we've seen over the last 2 years.

本季度的一些亮點包括：泰克創紀錄的季度收入和營業利潤，這繼續受益於強勁的積壓訂單，受新產品發布和份額增長以及新進入主流市場（聽不清）的推動。我們看到第四季度的訂單如預期的那樣放緩，因為在過去兩年我們看到了 40% 的增長後需求恢復正常。

Sensing Technologies had another quarter of mid-teens growth, driven by strong price realization across all businesses and continued demand in Qualitrol's utility and power business, offsetting industrial and semiconductor demand softening.

Sensing Technologies 在所有業務強勁的價格實現以及 Qualitrol 的公用事業和電力業務的持續需求的推動下，又實現了四分之一的中期增長，抵消了工業和半導體需求的疲軟。

Combination of Gems and Setra in 2022 also drove approximately 200 basis points of margin expansion and 4 working capital turns improvement. Pacific Scientific EMC saw high 20s growth in the quarter, facilitated by capacity expansion and improved materials availability.

Gems 和 Setra 在 2022 年的合併也推動了大約 200 個基點的利潤率擴張和 4 個營運資本周轉率改善。 Pacific Scientific EMC 在本季度實現了 20 多倍的高速增長，這得益於產能擴張和材料可用性的提高。

Moving now to Slide 7 in Advanced Healthcare Solutions. As expected, Core revenues increased 5% in the quarter, driven by broad improvement across all health care operating companies. By major region, mid-single-digit growth in North America reflected the benefit of our higher installed base and some improvement in hospitals, partially offset by a low single-digit decline in Western Europe and a high single-digit decline in China.

現在轉到高級醫療保健解決方案中的幻燈片 7。正如預期的那樣，受所有醫療保健運營公司普遍改善的推動，本季度核心收入增長了 5%。按主要地區劃分，北美的中個位數增長反映了我們更高的安裝基數和醫院的一些改善的好處，部分被西歐的低個位數下降和中國的高個位數下降所抵消。

The exit rate on China elective procedures was the lowest we have seen post-COVID and roughly 30% of normalized levels. January 2023 volumes were roughly half of prior year levels, which was reflected in our Q1 outlook for the segment. In the fourth quarter, AHS segment margins were down 260 basis points, driven primarily by higher inflation, partially offset by favorable M&A. Notably, margins were up approximately 400 basis points versus Q3.

中國選擇性程序的退出率是我們在 COVID 之後看到的最低水平，大約是正常水平的 30%。 2023 年 1 月的銷量大約是上一年水平的一半，這反映在我們對該細分市場的第一季度展望中。第四季度，AHS 部門的利潤率下降了 260 個基點，這主要是受通貨膨脹率上升的推動，部分被有利的併購所抵消。值得注意的是，與第三季度相比，利潤率上升了約 400 個基點。

Versus our fourth quarter guidance, margins were unfavorably impacted by additional transactional impacts and lower margins at Fluke Health Solutions. As we look ahead, the team is starting to see traction on their pricing and productivity initiatives, which we expect will deliver margin recovery in 2023.

與我們第四季度的指導相比，利潤率受到額外交易影響和 Fluke Health Solutions 利潤率下降的不利影響。展望未來，該團隊開始看到其定價和生產力舉措的吸引力，我們預計這些舉措將在 2023 年實現利潤率回升。

Some other highlights of the quarter include: ASP finished the year with core revenue growth of 5% as capital share gains and consumable volumes more than offset COVID headwinds in China. Even with inflationary pressures, ASP ended Q4 with the strongest margins of the year and continued to deliver strong working capital improvements.

本季度的其他一些亮點包括：由於資本份額收益和消耗品數量抵消了中國的 COVID 逆風，平均售價在今年結束時核心收入增長了 5%。即使存在通貨膨脹壓力，ASP 仍以今年最高的利潤率結束了第四季度，並繼續實現強勁的營運資本改善。

While hospital profitability remains pressured, due to labor and inflationary challenges, Censis continues to drive robust growth and in Setra -- SaaS offering in Q4 and for the year with mid-teens net new ACV and record cross-sell opportunities.

儘管由於勞動力和通貨膨脹的挑戰，醫院的盈利能力仍然面臨壓力，但 Censis 繼續推動強勁增長，並在 Setra 中——第四季度和今年的 SaaS 產品提供了十幾歲的淨新 ACV 和創紀錄的交叉銷售機會。

Lastly, Provation is ahead on its return expectations, having contributed $0.10 to earnings in 2022. As customers continue to standardize our probation across their health systems, we are seeing accelerated SaaS growth, setting them up for a strong 2023.

最後，Provation 的回報預期領先，在 2022 年為收益貢獻了 0.10 美元。隨著客戶繼續在他們的醫療系統中標準化我們的試用期，我們看到 SaaS 增長加速，為他們在 2023 年的強勁發展做好準備。

Turning to Slide 8. The Fortive Business System is a powerful mindset that makes continuous improvement a way of life at Fortive. We drive deep engagement across our teams and hold them accountable for delivering on high expectations.

轉到幻燈片 8。Fortive 業務系統是一種強大的思維方式，它使持續改進成為 Fortive 的一種生活方式。我們推動整個團隊的深入參與，並讓他們對實現高期望負責。

As a reminder, in October, we brought together over 400 team members, at our CEO Kaizen Innovent. Our most senior Fortive leaders, including our segment leaders and a number of our operating company presidents, collaborated to drive significant improvements in growth, margin, free cash flow and breakthrough innovations across 4 operating companies, Fluke, ISC, Tektronix, and Censis.

提醒一下，在 10 月份，我們的 CEO Kaizen Innovent 召集了 400 多名團隊成員。我們最高級的 Fortive 領導者，包括我們的部門領導者和我們的一些運營公司總裁，合作推動 4 家運營公司（Fluke、ISC、Tektronix 和 Censis）在增長、利潤、自由現金流和突破性創新方面的顯著改善。

We're proud of the success our teams are having sustaining results to directly attribute it to this event, including, at Fluke, we reduced bold change over time by over 50%, eliminating stock-outs on critical plastic components and reducing past due backlog.

我們為我們的團隊取得的成功而感到自豪，這些成功直接歸因於這一事件，包括在福祿克，我們隨著時間的推移將大膽的變化減少了 50% 以上，消除了關鍵塑料部件的缺貨並減少了逾期積壓.

At ISC, we applied lean conversion in the Fortive material system to improve quality output and turnaround time for iNet and rental customers, dramatically reducing the cost of repairs and product redesign.

在 ISC，我們在 Fortive 材料系統中應用精益轉換，以提高 iNet 和租賃客戶的質量輸出和周轉時間，顯著降低維修和產品重新設計的成本。

At Tektronix, we applied lean conversion to circuit board repair, increasing on-time delivery to 98% by altering material flow, installing 5S part management and building standard work and documentation of our procedures.

在 Tektronix，我們將精益轉換應用於電路板維修，通過改變物料流、安裝 5S 零件管理以及構建標準工作和程序文檔將準時交付率提高到 98%。

In Censis, we applied value stream mapping and transactional process improvement to identify the inefficiencies and waste, resulting in a 50% reduction in time to onboard new customers. With Kaizen activity accelerating in 2023, we expect significant results across Fortive in the year ahead.

在 Censis 中，我們應用價值流圖和交易流程改進來識別低效和浪費，從而將吸引新客戶的時間減少了 50%。隨著 2023 年 Kaizen 活動的加速，我們預計 Fortive 將在來年取得重大成果。

I'm incredibly proud of the work we have done in 2022 to deliver powerful results and continue our progress towards building a more sustainable future, as you can see on Slide 9. We believe in taking a holistic approach to creating value that includes setting aspirational and actionable targets across each of our sustainability pillars as shown on the page.

正如您在幻燈片 9 中看到的那樣，我為我們在 2022 年所做的工作感到無比自豪，這些工作取得了令人矚目的成果，並繼續朝著建設更可持續的未來邁進。我們相信採用整體方法來創造價值，包括設定理想以及我們每個可持續發展支柱的可操作目標，如頁面所示。

Leading Fortive today is a diverse Board and leadership team, with recent hires and promotions advancing our commitment to top talent and diversity. Strong and inclusive culture is core to Fortive's mission with inclusion and diversity, a critical component of FBS.

今天領導 Fortive 的是一個多元化的董事會和領導團隊，最近的招聘和晉升推進了我們對頂尖人才和多元化的承諾。強大和包容的文化是 Fortive 使命的核心，包容性和多樣性是 FBS 的重要組成部分。

Last year, we published clear goals to increase our diverse supplier spend, gender representation, [bypack] representation and senior leader diversity by 2025. We believe this has resulted in part to an increase in our employee engagement scores, up 5 points from pre-pandemic levels.

去年，我們發布了明確的目標，即到 2025 年增加供應商的多元化支出、性別代表性、[bypack] 代表性和高級領導多樣性。我們認為這在一定程度上導致了我們員工敬業度得分的提高，比之前提高了 5 分大流行水平。

Our progress also extends to how we protect the planet. It includes the early achievement of our 2025 greenhouse gas goal in the adoption of our new ambitious goal of 50% emissions reduction by 2029.

我們的進步還延伸到我們如何保護地球。它包括通過我們到 2029 年減排 50% 的新宏偉目標提前實現我們的 2025 年溫室氣體排放目標。

It's our shared purpose that also pushes us to create innovative and sustainable products and services. Today, approximately 60% of our revenue is derived from products and services that enable more sustainable outcomes aligned to the United Nations' sustainable development goals. And we have award-winning products that promote sustainability for our customers.

我們的共同目標也推動我們創造創新和可持續的產品和服務。今天，我們大約 60% 的收入來自產品和服務，這些產品和服務能夠實現符合聯合國可持續發展目標的更可持續的成果。我們擁有屢獲殊榮的產品，可以為我們的客戶促進可持續發展。

Lastly, the commitment to drive meaningful and sustainable outcomes that matter most to our stakeholders is reflected in our recognition by Newsweek for the fourth consecutive year as one of the America's most responsible company.

最後，推動對我們的利益相關者最重要的有意義和可持續成果的承諾體現在我們連續第四年被《新聞周刊》評為美國最負責任的公司之一。

With that, I'll pass it over to Chuck, who will provide more color on our fourth quarter financials and our 2023 outlook.

有了這個，我會把它傳遞給查克，他將為我們的第四季度財務和 2023 年展望提供更多色彩。

Thanks, Jim, and hello, everyone. I will begin on Slide 10, with a quick recap of our fourth quarter performance. We generated year-over-year core revenue growth of 14%. Acquisitions net of divestitures contributed 1.5 points of growth. FX headwinds were approximately 4 points.

謝謝，吉姆，大家好。我將從幻燈片 10 開始，快速回顧一下我們第四季度的業績。我們的核心收入同比增長 14%。資產剝離後的收購貢獻了 1.5 個百分點的增長。外匯逆風約為 4 點。

Turning to the geographies. We saw another quarter of double-digit core revenue growth in each of our major regions. North America revenue was up low double digits with broad-based strength across our businesses. Western Europe revenue grew mid-teens, with volume contributions in hardware products and favorable pricing, partially offset by a decline in health care.

轉向地理。我們在每個主要地區又看到了四分之一的兩位數核心收入增長。北美收入增長了兩位數，我們的業務具有廣泛的實力。西歐收入增長了 15%，硬件產品的銷量貢獻和優惠的定價，部分被醫療保健的下滑所抵消。

In the fourth quarter, bookings growth slowed in North America and Western Europe as expected. Asia revenue increased high teens, with low 20% in China, driven by robust growth in Intelligent Operating Solutions and Precision Technologies, more than offsetting a dramatic drop in elective procedures in China impacting Advanced HealthCare Solutions.

第四季度，北美和西歐的預訂量增長如預期放緩。在智能操作解決方案和精密技術的強勁增長的推動下，亞洲收入增長了十幾歲，中國的收入增長了 20%，這足以抵消影響先進醫療保健解決方案的中國選擇性手術的急劇下降。

Lastly, we saw a broad-based performance in our high-growth markets with mid-teens core growth.

最後，我們在核心增長處於中等水平的高增長市場中看到了廣泛的表現。

Turning to Slide 11, we show operating performance highlights for the fourth quarter. Adjusted gross margins increased by 50 basis points to 58.3% as volume and strong price realization continued to demonstrate the value proposition of our products and solutions more than offsetting higher inflation.

轉到幻燈片 11，我們展示了第四季度的經營業績亮點。調整後的毛利率增加了 50 個基點，達到 58.3%，因為數量和強勁的價格實現繼續證明我們的產品和解決方案的價值主張，而不是抵消更高的通貨膨脹。

Adjusted operating profit margins expanded 110 basis points to 25.5%, up 230 basis points on a 2-year stack basis. Adjusted earnings per share increased 11% to $0.88, reflecting a strong fall-through on higher volumes and productivity, partially offset by higher interest and tax expense.

調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 110 個基點，達到 25.5%，在 2 年疊加的基礎上增加了 230 個基點。調整後的每股收益增長 11% 至 0.88 美元，反映出產量和生產率的大幅下降，部分被利息和稅收支出增加所抵消。

Normalized for tax earnings in the quarter were up 16%. Free cash flow was another standard. Strong year-end cash collections and the benefits of our FBS driven working capital initiatives yielded $428 million of free cash flow in the quarter, taking the full year to $1.2 billion.

本季度標準化稅收收入增長了 16%。自由現金流是另一個標準。強勁的年終現金回款和我們 FBS 驅動的營運資本計劃的好處在本季度產生了 4.28 億美元的自由現金流，使全年達到 12 億美元。

Before turning to the guide, I wanted to provide some context on our 2023 outlook on Slide 12. We expect that 2023 will be another year of growth and margin expansion in each of our strategic segments, supported by secular tailwinds driving market expansion and new customer innovations.

在轉向指南之前，我想在幻燈片 12 上提供一些關於我們 2023 年展望的背景信息。我們預計 2023 年將是我們每個戰略領域增長和利潤率擴張的又一年，這將受到長期順風推動市場擴張和新客戶的支持創新。

Our recurring revenue businesses at roughly 40% of sales are expected to benefit from the work we did in 2022 to increase demand generation and strengthen our go-to-market efforts, driving double-digit SaaS and license revenue growth.

我們的經常性收入業務約佔銷售額的 40%，預計將受益於我們在 2022 年所做的工作，以增加需求生成並加強我們的上市努力，推動 SaaS 和許可收入實現兩位數增長。

Elevated backlog in our hardware products businesses, particularly at Tektronix, is expected to derisk moderating demand as order rates normalize in 2023. Further, the benefit of 2022 pricing actions is expected to carry over into 2023, driving another year of above-trend pricing realization along, with increased sourcing and value engineering savings contributing to gross margin expansion.

隨著 2023 年訂單率正常化，我們硬件產品業務（尤其是泰克）的積壓增加預計將降低需求放緩的風險。此外，2022 年定價行動的好處預計將延續到 2023 年，推動又一年實現高於趨勢的定價同時，增加採購和價值工程節省有助於毛利率增長。

We also expect our productivity initiatives to yield strong incremental operating margins, including actions in the first half of the year to countermeasure the slowing macro environment. Project paybacks related to these initiatives are expected to average 1 year. We have included these benefits in our margins and earnings outlook for the second half, with carryover benefits into 2024.

我們還預計我們的生產力舉措將產生強勁的增量營業利潤率，包括今年上半年採取行動應對放緩的宏觀環境。與這些舉措相關的項目投資回收期預計平均為 1 年。我們已將這些收益納入下半年的利潤率和收益展望，並將結轉收益延續到 2024 年。

In summary, we believe our 2023 outlook reflects a more resilient revenue and earnings profile as we expect to weather the evolving macro environment.

總而言之，我們認為我們的 2023 年展望反映出更具彈性的收入和盈利狀況，因為我們預計能夠經受住不斷變化的宏觀環境。

Turning now to the guide on Slide 13. We are introducing 2023 guidance. Starting with the full year, we expect core revenue growth in the range of 3% to 5.5%. Our outlook reflects a year-over-year foreign exchange headwind of just under 1% on revenue. Adjusted operating profit is expected to increase 5% to 10%, with margins in the range of 25% to 25.5%.

現在轉到幻燈片 13 上的指南。我們正在介紹 2023 年指南。從全年開始，我們預計核心收入增長在 3% 至 5.5% 之間。我們的展望反映了收入同比增長略低於 1% 的外匯逆風。調整後的營業利潤預計將增長 5% 至 10%，利潤率在 25% 至 25.5% 之間。

Adjusted diluted net EPS guidance of $3.25 to $3.40, up 3% to 8%, which includes higher interest and tax expense. And free cash flow is expected to be approximately $1.25 billion, representing conversion in the range of 100% to 105% of adjusted net income and a 21% free cash flow margin.

調整後的稀釋後淨每股收益指引為 3.25 美元至 3.40 美元，增長 3% 至 8%，其中包括更高的利息和稅收費用。自由現金流預計約為 12.5 億美元，相當於調整後淨收入的 100% 至 105% 的轉換率和 21% 的自由現金流利潤率。

For the first quarter, we anticipate core revenue growth of 5% to 6.5% with an FX headwind of 2.5%. Adjusted operating profit is expected to increase 4% to 9%, with margins in the range of 23.5% to 24%. Adjusted diluted net EPS guidance of $0.71 to $0.74, up 1% to 5%, which includes higher year-over-year interest and tax, and free cash flow of approximately $170 million, reflecting the stronger cash collections that pulled forward into Q4 as well as our normal seasonal variations.

對於第一季度，我們預計核心收入增長 5% 至 6.5%，外匯逆風為 2.5%。調整後的營業利潤預計將增長 4% 至 9%，利潤率在 23.5% 至 24% 之間。調整後的稀釋後每股收益淨值指引為 0.71 美元至 0.74 美元，增長 1% 至 5%，其中包括同比較高的利息和稅收，以及約 1.7 億美元的自由現金流，這反映了進入第四季度的更強勁的現金回收作為我們正常的季節性變化。

Turning now to Slide 14. We are expecting a 48-52 split of revenue first half to second half, which reflects a step-up of approximately $120 million of core revenue growth, which when you compare to last year is less than half of the increase we saw in the second half of 2022.

現在轉到幻燈片 14。我們預計上半年和下半年的收入比例為 48-52，這反映了大約 1.2 億美元的核心收入增長，與去年相比不到一半我們在 2022 年下半年看到的增長。

The step-up in 2023 is largely driven by acceleration in new products, a ramp in the growth rate of advanced health care as we lap China COVID lockdowns and an increase in software and other recurring revenue streams. FX and interest account for abnormal earnings seasonality as FX becomes a tailwind in the second half of the year and interest expense is expected to decline as we pay down debt with available free cash flow as the year progresses, giving us a bigger than usual step-up in EPS first half to second half.

2023 年的增長主要是由於新產品的加速推出、隨著中國 COVID 封鎖措施的推進而高級醫療保健的增長率上升以及軟件和其他經常性收入流的增加。外彙和利息導致異常的盈利季節性，因為外彙在今年下半年成為順風，隨著我們用可用的自由現金流償還債務，隨著時間的推移，利息支出預計會下降，這使我們比往常邁出更大的一步- EPS 上半年至下半年上升。

In summary, our revenue outlook reflects a similar linearity profile to 2022. And while core growth decelerates first half to second half, it accelerates on a 2-year stack basis.

總而言之，我們的收入前景反映了與 2022 年類似的線性特徵。雖然核心增長在上半年和下半年有所放緩，但它在 2 年疊加的基礎上加速。

With that, I'll pass it back to Jim to provide some closing remarks.

有了這個，我會把它傳回給吉姆，以提供一些結束語。

Thanks, Chuck. I'll now wrap up on Slide 16.

謝謝，查克。我現在將結束幻燈片 16。

In summary, I'm incredibly proud of the contributions of our 18,000 team members to make 2022 a record year for Fortive and further differentiate our more resilient financial profile. As we turn the page on 2022, that resiliency will be on display again in 2023, as our outlook reflects an expectation for slowing growth as customer demand normalizes after 2 years of robust double-digit hardware product orders, but it also reflects the benefits of the investments we have made to accelerate strategy, strengthen our market positions, scale our software revenues and develop new innovations that are solving our customers' toughest safety, quality and productivity challenges.

總而言之，我為我們的 18,000 名團隊成員做出的貢獻感到無比自豪，他們使 2022 年成為 Fortive 創紀錄的一年，並進一步區分了我們更具彈性的財務狀況。當我們在 2022 年翻開這一頁時，這種彈性將在 2023 年再次顯現，因為我們的前景反映了隨著客戶需求在 2 年強勁的兩位數硬件產品訂單後恢復正常而增長放緩的預期，但它也反映了我們為加速戰略、加強我們的市場地位、擴大我們的軟件收入和開發新的創新而進行的投資，這些創新正在解決我們客戶最嚴峻的安全、質量和生產力挑戰。

As you've also heard today, we are seeing the benefits of our continuous improvement culture, unleashing the power of the Fortive Business System to deliver more profitable growth and strong free cash flow, again in 2023, allowing us to compound returns through disciplined capital deployment.

正如您今天也聽到的那樣，我們正在看到我們持續改進文化的好處，釋放 Fortive 業務系統的力量，以在 2023 年再次實現更高的盈利增長和強勁的自由現金流，使我們能夠通過有紀律的資本實現複合回報部署。

When taken together, this creates a powerful formula for value creation with a high-quality portfolio of desirable brands favorably leveraged to sustainable secular trends, industry-leading margins and free cash flow generation and best-in-class execution, enabling Fortive to outperform in almost any environment.

綜合起來，這創造了一個強大的價值創造公式，擁有高質量的理想品牌組合，有利於適應可持續的長期趨勢、行業領先的利潤率和自由現金流產生以及一流的執行，使 Fortive 能夠在幾乎任何環境。

With that, I'll turn it back to Elena.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給埃琳娜。

Thanks, Jim. That concludes our formal comments. Julianne, we will now take questions.

謝謝，吉姆。我們的正式評論到此結束。 Julianne，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan Chase.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Tusa。

Can you just talk about for IOS, the margin expansion kind of sequentially from the first quarter for the -- through the full year, the kind of key building blocks for that?

你能談談 IOS，從第一季度到全年的利潤率擴張，這是關鍵的組成部分嗎？

Yes. Steve, it's Jim. A couple of things. One, obviously, we play a role in that. And -- so as we continue to progress, we'll see that. As we noted, some of the asset life cycle, a little bit lower growth in the first quarter. We can talk about that, but that -- those margins will expand. So the revenue coming back certainly in the software businesses there as well as just continued progression of a lot of the actions that we've got price will continue to be a helpful piece of this, driving gross margin expansion along with our productivity initiatives.

是的。史蒂夫，是吉姆。幾件事。第一，很明顯，我們在其中發揮了作用。而且 - 所以隨著我們繼續進步，我們會看到這一點。正如我們所指出的，一些資產生命週期的增長在第一季度略有下降。我們可以談論這一點，但是——這些利潤率將會擴大。因此，那裡軟件業務的收入肯定會恢復，以及我們已經採取的許多行動的持續進展將繼續成為其中的一個有益因素，推動毛利率的增長以及我們的生產力舉措。

So I don't think we've got anything dramatic from the first half to the second half in terms of anything that you wouldn't normally see seasonally in terms of growth, price realization, productivity initiatives get more traction as you go through the year. Those are probably the big drivers outside of just normal revenue.

因此，我認為從上半年到下半年，在增長、價格實現、生產力舉措等方面你通常不會看到的任何季節性變化都沒有任何戲劇性的變化，因為你經歷了年。這些可能是正常收入之外的主要驅動因素。

And then should we assume this excess $350 million backlog that, that all obviously gets kind of washed out this year? And then what's kind of the pace of that being washed through?

那麼我們是否應該假設這 3.5 億美元的積壓，今年顯然都被淘汰了？然後被沖刷的速度是怎樣的？

Steve, this is Chuck. Actually, in our modeling, no. We wouldn't expect that all gets washed out based on-- but of course, it depends on the order rate. It's one of the reasons why we think that we've got a pretty resilient forecast here. If the order rates moderate beyond where we think they're going to be, we could still do it.

史蒂夫，這是查克。實際上，在我們的建模中，沒有。我們不希望所有的人都被淘汰——當然，這取決於訂單率。這就是為什麼我們認為我們在這裡有一個非常有彈性的預測的原因之一。如果訂單率低於我們認為的水平，我們仍然可以做到。

It's really still -- we've got -- supply chain is getting better. It's just -- it's not resolved. So it's not like we can just flip the switch and get it all out. But we would -- we'd probably cut it in half.

它真的仍然 - 我們已經 - 供應鏈正在變得更好。它只是 - 它沒有解決。所以這不像是我們可以簡單地翻轉開關並全力以赴。但我們會——我們可能會把它減半。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

I just wanted to start with some more detail on the product hardware orders. So I think those were up mid-single digit Q3, it sounds like they're up maybe low single Q4. And then you've got this slowdown commentary.

我只想從產品硬件訂單的更多細節開始。所以我認為這些是第三季度的中個位數，聽起來它們可能是第四季度的低位。然後你得到了這個放緩評論。

And then also on Slide 14, you talked about orders improving through the year. So is the way to think about that, you're trying to say that orders, ended last year up low single, maybe they're down in the first half, grow in the second half? And then that's what informs the PT organic sales guide.

然後還在幻燈片 14 上，您談到了全年訂單的改善。那麼思考這個問題的方式是，你想說的是，去年結束時單筆訂單很低，也許他們在上半年下降，在下半年增長？這就是 PT 有機銷售指南的內容。

Because if I look at that on Slide 17, you're starting the year up double digit. The year as a whole is up low to mid. So you're sort of implying the organic sales in the year flat or down. Is that just kind of the orders flowing through with a 6-month lag? Is that how we're thinking about it?

因為如果我在幻燈片 17 上看，您將以兩位數的速度開始這一年。全年從低到中。所以你有點暗示今年的有機銷售額持平或下降。這只是滯後 6 個月的訂單嗎？我們是這麼想的嗎？

Well, I think, first, we would think the second half of '22 is basically flattish for orders for those businesses. So a little bit down in the fourth relative to -- and right along where we thought.

好吧，我認為，首先，我們認為 22 年下半年這些企業的訂單基本上持平。因此，相對於我們的想法，第四位稍微下降了一點。

If you remember from the third quarter call, we said, yes, we also saw some orders that came in, in the first half for the second half. So that's kind of the backdrop of what we just described, backlog in and around where we thought it would be from an ending year.

如果你還記得第三季度的電話會議，我們說，是的，我們也看到了下半年上半年收到的一些訂單。所以這就是我們剛剛描述的背景，積壓在我們認為從結束的一年開始的地方和周圍。

So the backlog, obviously, as Chuck just described, that obviously helps in the -- with some of the order down slowing that we saw. We expect orders to kind of be around the same in the first half relative to those product businesses, Julian.

因此，積壓，顯然，正如查克剛才所描述的那樣，這顯然有助於我們看到的一些訂單放緩。朱利安，我們預計上半年的訂單與這些產品業務的訂單大致相同。

So you think about probably the second quarter -- first quarter and second quarter being probably negative in those businesses, but backlog obviously mitigates a number of those things. And then it starts to pick up a little bit. Some of that pickup is an easier comp, obviously, because of what I just described in the second half of '22. And there's a little bit -- sensing probably stays flat through the year, it's probably not a big improvement through the year in sensing, but a little bit of improvement in tech. And we think Fluke will come back as well, typically comes back a little faster.

所以你可能會考慮第二季度 - 第一季度和第二季度這些業務可能是負面的，但積壓顯然減輕了其中的一些事情。然後它開始一點點回升。顯然，由於我剛剛在 22 年下半年描述的內容，其中一些拾音器是一個更容易的組合。並且有一點 - 傳感可能在這一年中保持平穩，這可能不是一年中傳感方面的重大改進，而是技術方面的一點改進。我們認為 Fluke 也會回來，通常會回來得更快一些。

And Julian, the only thing I'd just remind you is we have an easier comp in PT in Q1. So when you start -- when you look at a dollar standpoint, it's not as dramatic as you move through the year. In fact, I think from a dollar standpoint, we'd expect that it would -- there would be an upward trajectory in PT each quarter sequentially.

朱利安，我唯一要提醒你的是我們在第一季度的 PT 中有一個更簡單的組合。所以當你開始時——當你從美元的角度來看時，它並不像你在這一年中那樣戲劇化。事實上，我認為從美元的角度來看，我們預計它會 - 每個季度的 PT 都會有一個連續的上升軌跡。

And when we look maybe within PT and Tektronix, maybe flesh out a little bit more what you're expecting. You've got that high teens growth first quarter. The year is up mid-single. But I guess if I look at a lot of what's happened in, say, electronics, it feels like people are in kind of the teeth of the destocking right now and have been for 3 or even 6 months. So I understand maybe you're protected a bit by the backlog in Tektronix.

當我們審視 PT 和 Tektronix 時，也許會更加充實您的期望。第一季度你有那麼高的青少年增長。今年是單年中期。但我想，如果我看一下電子產品等領域發生的很多事情，就會覺得人們現在正處於去庫存的邊緣，而且已經持續了 3 個月甚至 6 個月。所以我知道泰克的積壓工作可能會為您提供一些保護。

That means you have a sort of gradual decent through the year. Maybe just help us understand kind of where you see channel inventories in that business? And again, on Tektronix, it looks like the guide implies a down revenue in the back half. Just wanted to kind of confirm a couple of things there.

這意味著你在這一年中有一種漸進的體面。也許只是幫助我們了解您在該業務中看到的渠道庫存？同樣，在泰克，該指南似乎暗示下半年收入下降。只是想確認幾件事。

Yes. Well, number one, I think, on the back, as we said in the prepared remarks, 40% order growth over the last couple of years. It's obviously a little bit higher growth rate than what we'd normally expect for tech.

是的。嗯，第一，我認為，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，過去幾年訂單增長了 40%。這顯然比我們通常對科技的預期要高一點。

So what you start to see in the full year is a moderation or a normalization back to that mid-single-digit growth. I would say when you think about customers, very much playing out the way we anticipated in terms of moving the business.

因此，您在全年開始看到的是回到中等個位數增長的放緩或正常化。我會說，當你考慮客戶時，在推動業務方面非常符合我們預期的方式。

The business just doesn't have as much of influence from consumer electronics anymore, where you're seeing a lot of that distortion -- with the things we've talked about in terms of power, data centers, industrial IoT, all of those drivers are really driving the business much more today than ever before, making it more resilient.

該業務不再受到消費電子產品的影響，在那裡你會看到很多扭曲——我們在電力、數據中心、工業物聯網等方面討論過的事情，所有這些今天，司機真正比以往任何時候都更能推動業務發展，使其更具彈性。

So I think those are all the things we've described that I think really continue to have the business. It does decel a little bit, but it moderates off of really, really large numbers. So I think mid-single-digit growth for the year is what we're calling out here. It could be a little bit better. We'll still end the year with a decent backlog, as Chuck was just describing a couple of questions ago.

所以我認為這些就是我們所描述的我認為真正繼續開展業務的所有內容。它確實減速了一點，但它緩和了非常非常大的數字。所以我認為今年的中個位數增長是我們在這裡呼籲的。它可能會好一點。我們仍然會在今年年底有大量積壓工作，因為 Chuck 之前剛剛描述了幾個問題。

So I think when we look at the business for the year, very healthy, channels have almost no inventory. So we continue to see good point-of-sale strength. And some of that is just fulfilling past due to some extent, but there really isn't a channel inventory situation whatsoever. And so I think we're in a good place. Orders will slow a little bit, but some of that is just the big heavy comps that we've sort of had over the last couple of years. So we think we're in a good place, and we think we'll exit '23 in a good place as well.

所以我認為，當我們審視這一年的業務時，非常健康，渠道幾乎沒有庫存。因此，我們繼續看到良好的銷售點實力。其中一些只是在某種程度上滿足了過去，但實際上並沒有任何渠道庫存情況。所以我認為我們處在一個好地方。訂單會稍微放慢一點，但其中一些只是我們在過去幾年中所擁有的大型重型產品。所以我們認為我們處在一個好地方，我們認為我們也會在一個好地方退出 23 年。

Our next question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Jim and Chuck and Elena, hope you guys are well. If I look back at my notes, I think you said, the service channel probation would be like $0.12 accretive in '22. It sounds like maybe that came in a couple of pennies better.

吉姆、查克和埃琳娜，希望你們都好。如果我回顧一下我的筆記，我想你說過，服務渠道試用期在 22 年會增加 0.12 美元。聽起來可能好幾美分。

Is that accretion step-up meaningfully in '23? We think just given the growth rates of those businesses, that would be a nice tailwind for you. But I know you did make some comments on the SaaS adjustment on service channel, that was an offset.

23 年的增長是否有意義？我們認為，考慮到這些業務的增長率，這對您來說將是一個不錯的順風。但我知道你確實對服務渠道上的 SaaS 調整髮表了一些意見，這是一種抵消。

Yes. Scott, you got it right. We came in at, I think, $0.14 in 2022. And I would expect that, that would grow as you expected. We build on that $0.14 in 2023. Faster growth rates there. Also more profitability in the first half in service channel and things all that are going to give us a nice tailwind.

是的。斯科特，你沒看錯。我認為，我們在 2022 年的收入為 0.14 美元。我希望它會像你預期的那樣增長。我們在 2023 年以 0.14 美元為基礎。那裡的增長率更快。上半年服務渠道的盈利能力也更高，所有這些都會給我們帶來良好的順風。

And Scott, just to maybe add on to the first quarter service channel thing, as we talked about in the prepared remarks. This is really -- the SaaS revenues continue to be incredibly strong in the business. But we did have a little bit more pass-through revenue in the year than we anticipated. That's why we grew the business almost 50% on a full year basis.

正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，斯科特可能會添加到第一季度服務渠道的事情。這真的是 - SaaS 收入在業務中繼續非常強勁。但我們今年的轉手收入確實比我們預期的要多一點。這就是我們全年業務增長近 50% 的原因。

So really strong growth this past year. We'll move to a better business model, which is a little bit less pass-through revenue and a much -- but the strength of the SaaS business has been there all along. We've now got a data analytics platform that we're offering as well.

過去一年的增長非常強勁。我們將轉向更好的商業模式，這種模式的傳遞收入會少一些，但 SaaS 業務的優勢一直存在。我們現在也提供了一個數據分析平台。

So we really got to kind of get through that in the first quarter and a little bit in the first half, but the profitability really does raise considerably as well. We got what we needed in '22 in that regard. We'll be an even better place in '23, simply because the business model transformation that we intended to do is really start going to hit the full hit of the P&L through the year.

因此，我們確實在第一季度和上半年完成了一些工作，但盈利能力確實也大幅提高。在這方面，我們在 22 年得到了我們需要的東西。我們將在 23 年成為一個更好的地方，僅僅是因為我們打算進行的商業模式轉型真的開始對全年的損益產生全面影響。

All right. That's helpful. And I think it was Jim, you mentioned in your remarks that the discretionary procedures in China finished the year like a 30% number, which 30% of normal, I think I'm reading it as, which just sounds crazy.

好的。這很有幫助。我想是吉姆，你在評論中提到中國的自由裁量程序在今年結束時是 30% 的數字，這是正常的 30%，我想我正在讀它，這聽起來很瘋狂。

But -- is that -- are you still seeing that in January? I would imagine that the reopening, just timing of the reopening, that stuff would pick back up here in 1Q pretty aggressively, but I don't know. But are you still seeing that kind of...

但是——那是——你在一月份還看到嗎？我想重新開放，只是重新開放的時間，這些東西會在第一季度非常積極地回升，但我不知道。但是你還看到那種...

Yes. I mean you got it exactly right. December, in particular, was really low. I think that speaks to the strength of AHF, quite frankly, on the revenue line is we were able to weather that storm because of the strength of other regions of the world.

是的。我的意思是你完全正確。尤其是 12 月，真的很低。我認為這說明了 AHF 的實力，坦率地說，在收入線上，由於世界其他地區的實力，我們能夠經受住這場風暴。

We talked about the 5% growth that we had in the segment. So we think we're about probably 50% in January, so about half of where we were a year ago. But you're right, it's going to ramp. We're seeing some of that improvement. A couple of weeks ago, we think was the low point.

我們談到了該細分市場 5% 的增長。所以我們認為我們在 1 月份大概是 50%，所以大約是一年前的一半。但你是對的，它會上升。我們看到了一些改進。幾週前，我們認為是最低點。

But it's now picking up to 70 in a week, but we should see continued improvement. Again, on the other side of the Chinese New Year holiday, and we'll get a better view of things as we always do. But we anticipate that this will continue to improve throughout the year as China just kind of gets back to normal, and we certainly started to see that.

但現在它在一周內上升到 70，但我們應該會看到持續的改善。同樣，在農曆新年假期的另一邊，我們會像往常一樣更好地了解事情。但我們預計，隨著中國恢復正常，這一情況將在全年繼續改善，我們當然已經開始看到這一點。

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

Jim, as you're well aware, right, there's a process going on out there for national instruments and a lot of speculation out there about your interest. I'm sure you're fairly limited on what you might want to say, but any color you could give us on your appetite for any deal at large or you've expressed interest in the past and hardware-related deals? Anything there make any sense for you?

吉姆，你很清楚，對，有一個關於國家樂器的過程正在進行中，並且有很多關於你的興趣的猜測。我敢肯定，您可能想說的內容相當有限，但是您可以根據您對任何交易的胃口給我們任何顏色，或者您是否對過去和與硬件相關的交易表示過興趣？有什麼對你有意義嗎？

Yes. So I think, number one, we, obviously, know the company and have read the news. So you're exactly right. We wouldn't comment on any process that we'll be involved in or not involved in, particularly a public one.

是的。所以我認為，第一，我們顯然了解這家公司並且已經閱讀了新聞。所以你完全正確。我們不會對我們將參與或不參與的任何流程發表評論，尤其是公共流程。

But I would say this. I mean we've known NI for a long time. I can remember meeting Dr. T, 15 years ago or so. So we know them well. We partnered with them at Tektronix and have for a long time. So I think what we've said strategically about all of our funnel was there was a balance of large, small deals, hardware and software.

但我會這樣說。我的意思是我們認識 NI 很久了。我記得大約 15 年前見過 T 博士。所以我們很了解他們。我們在泰克與他們合作了很長時間。因此，我認為我們在戰略上所說的關於我們所有渠道的內容是在大交易、小交易、硬件和軟件之間取得平衡。

So we can -- the balance sheet is an incredible place right now, as you know. So we're in a great place to do things. But we're going to be disciplined. We're going to make sure that every situation we approach, we approach it strategically, how well that accelerates what we want to do, and I'll leave it at that. But I think more broadly around M&A, we're in a very good place relative to our opportunities ahead of us. And we'll -- we certainly are playing offense in that regard.

所以我們可以——正如你所知，資產負債表現在是一個令人難以置信的地方。所以我們處在一個做事的好地方。但我們要遵守紀律。我們將確保我們處理的每一種情況，我們都從戰略上處理它，這能多好地加速我們想做的事情，我會把它留在那裡。但我認為更廣泛地圍繞併購，相對於我們面前的機會，我們處於一個非常好的位置。我們會——我們在這方面肯定是在進攻。

Great. And then just totally shifting gears. Just back to kind of the inflationary pressures in AHS. At this point, do you have the cost and other actions in place to be neutral or better as we move through 2023? Maybe just put a little finer point on how you see kind of price cost and kind of the margin impact playing out over the balance of the year?

偉大的。然後就完全換檔了。回到 AHS 的通脹壓力。在這一點上，隨著我們走過 2023 年，您是否有適當的成本和其他行動來保持中立或更好？也許只是更詳細地說明你如何看待今年餘下時間的價格成本和利潤率影響？

Yes. So I think, more specifically around AHS, we called out a couple of kind of onetime headwinds in the quarter. We -- I think there's a number of things that are working in our favor relative to the '23 year. Number one is North America. We had good growth in North America and anticipate that will continue -- we're not necessarily calling everything getting perfect in North America, but we do believe it will get better. And we saw that in the fourth quarter, and that's a good thing for our margin structure.

是的。所以我認為，更具體地說，圍繞 AHS，我們在本季度提出了一些一次性逆風。我們——我認為相對於 23 年，有很多事情對我們有利。第一是北美。我們在北美取得了良好的增長，並預計這種情況將持續下去——我們不一定稱北美的一切都變得完美，但我們確實相信它會變得更好。我們在第四季度看到了這一點，這對我們的利潤結構來說是一件好事。

And then number two, to your point, we're seeing a little bit more price realization in the fourth and into this year. Things are starting to get a little traction. We've talked about that on the call that it just takes longer, and we're starting to see that.

然後第二，就你的觀點而言，我們在第四年和今年看到了更多的價格實現。事情開始變得有吸引力了。我們在電話會議上談到了它只需要更長的時間，我們開始看到這一點。

And then finally, productivity. The team -- that leadership team has really adopted FBS, and they've really embraced a number of things to really drive productivity. So we don't see the additional inflation either as well. So the combination of we don't see incremental inflation at this point and we have those actions getting deeper and deeper into the margin structure, if you will, through the year. So we feel like we're in a much better place starting here in '23, both from a market and obviously, the kind of actions that we need to continue to make the business better.

最後是生產力。團隊 - 那個領導團隊真的採用了 FBS，他們真的接受了很多東西來真正提高生產力。所以我們也沒有看到額外的通貨膨脹。因此，我們目前看不到增量通貨膨脹的結合，而且如果你願意的話，我們的這些行動將在這一年中越來越深入到保證金結構中。因此，我們覺得從 23 年開始，我們處在一個更好的位置，無論是從市場上，還是顯然，我們需要繼續讓業務變得更好的那種行動。

And I would just kind of -- you didn't ask it, but we have grown gross margins in AHS -- operating margins about 130 basis points over the last 2 years. So despite those challenges, we're in a good place. I call that the launch path from where we are today.

我只是有點——你沒問過，但我們在 AHS 的毛利率有所增長——過去兩年的營業利潤率約為 130 個基點。因此，儘管存在這些挑戰，我們的處境還是不錯的。我稱之為我們今天所處的發射路徑。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

By the way, (inaudible) is going to be very happy that you put them in that competitive basket. So just want to follow up on Jeff's question. Obviously, the National Instruments news is out there.

順便說一句，（聽不清）你會很高興你把它們放在那個有競爭力的籃子裡。所以只想跟進 Jeff 的問題。顯然，National Instruments 的消息已經公開。

Where do you stand philosophically on issuing equity for a deal? Because based on the math of -- we're doing, your leverage will get to very high levels. So just wondering what is the leverage ceiling you prepare to go to for the right opportunity? And philosophically, would you issue equity for the right opportunity?

對於為交易發行股權，您在哲學上持什麼立場？因為基於我們正在做的數學計算，你的槓桿作用將達到非常高的水平。所以只是想知道你準備去尋找合適機會的槓桿上限是多少？從哲學上講，您會為合適的機會發行股票嗎？

Nigel, this is Chuck. We've always felt that we want to maintain an investment-grade rating. And so we wouldn't do anything that -- on any type of deal that would jeopardize that.

奈傑爾，這是查克。我們一直覺得我們希望維持投資級評級。因此，我們不會做任何會危及這一點的交易。

I'd point out, in the past, we've done equity instruments, like a mandatory convert. And we've always said that in situations where we want to do something, equity has never been off the table. It just hasn't been needed at this point.

我要指出的是，過去我們做過權益工具，比如強制轉換。而且我們一直說，在我們想做某事的情況下，公平從未被排除在外。只是目前還不需要它。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just going back to the FY '22 plan, how much of that $350 million surplus backlog are you sort of planning to eat into underpin your plan?

好的。這很有幫助。然後回到 FY '22 計劃，您打算在這 3.5 億美元的盈餘積壓中有多少用於支持您的計劃？

And then maybe just touch on the service channel SaaS transition. It seems like it's a very sort of discrete sort of intra-quarter, maybe 1Q first half events. These SaaS transitions tend to be kind of drawn out when we look at other companies. So just curious why that would be so short term?

然後可能只涉及服務渠道 SaaS 過渡。這似乎是一種非常離散的季度內事件，也許是 1Q 上半場事件。當我們審視其他公司時，這些 SaaS 轉型往往會被拖延。所以很好奇為什麼會這麼短期？

Nigel, I'll take the first part. We would expect to take of the excess backlog that we're talking about, probably up to half of it is included in the assumptions for this year in this guide. But to be clear, this is what we consider excess, and that's still -- we get more out if supply chains get better. So there's a little more there, but it's still constrained by supply chain throughout this year, but getting better.

奈傑爾，我來做第一部分。我們預計會考慮到我們正在談論的過多積壓，可能多達一半包含在本指南今年的假設中。但需要明確的是，這就是我們認為的過度，而且仍然是——如果供應鏈變得更好，我們就會得到更多。所以那裡還有一點，但今年全年仍然受到供應鏈的限制，但正在好轉。

Nigel, on the service channel question, I wouldn't think of it as a SaaS transition. The SaaS revenue has continued to be good. It's -- we grew the business well over 70%, Q1 of '22. And so with a large amount of this just pass-through revenue. And so if you think about it, we have a customer -- some of our contracts have -- we're passing through a number -- amount of the facility maintenance costs that they have paying plumbers or electricians.

奈傑爾，關於服務渠道問題，我不會將其視為 SaaS 過渡。 SaaS 收入一直保持良好。這是 - 我們的業務增長超過 70%，22 年第一季度。因此，其中很大一部分只是傳遞收入。因此，如果你考慮一下，我們有一個客戶——我們的一些合同有——我們正在傳遞一些——他們支付給水管工或電工的設施維護費用。

We're just doing less of that. And so it's really not a SaaS transition in the traditional sense. We're replacing that solution though with some other added benefits. And so we -- that's why it's a short-term transition. It's really kind of going from -- losing some of this onetime pass-through revenue. Quite frankly, we didn't make any money on.

我們只是做得更少。所以它真的不是傳統意義上的 SaaS 過渡。我們正在用一些其他的附加好處替換該解決方案。所以我們 - 這就是為什麼這是一個短期過渡。這真的有點 - 失去一些一次性的傳遞收入。坦率地說，我們沒有賺到任何錢。

So I would see it as that, and that's why it's short term as opposed to sort of a conversion of what you'd see traditional license revenue to SaaS revenue. We're not going to see that. This is -- service channel is 100% SaaS revenue company.

所以我會這樣看，這就是為什麼它是短期的，而不是將傳統許可收入轉換為 SaaS 收入。我們不會看到那個。這是——服務渠道是 100% SaaS 收入的公司。

Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Andy Kaplowitz。

Jim, you and Chuck mentioned increased productivity initiatives planned in all segments that primarily benefits the second half of '23. I think you already mentioned FBS within AHS, but could you give us a little more color around what some of the bigger initiatives are and maybe size these initiatives for us? And then if there's any sort of cost to undertake these initiatives?

吉姆、你和查克提到了所有部門計劃提高生產力的舉措，這主要有利於 23 年下半年。我想你已經在 AHS 中提到了 FBS，但你能否給我們更多關於一些更大的舉措是什麼的顏色，並可能為我們確定這些舉措的規模？那麼，實施這些舉措是否需要任何成本？

Yes. Andy, the first half, we'd expect to put up $25 million to $30 million of cost to get after some of these structural things. Some of them are looked up a few of those -- but there'll likely be some -- outside of the U.S., maybe there are some regions that we want to convert to a dealer -- approach rather than a direct approach.

是的。安迪，上半年，我們預計將投入 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元的成本來處理其中一些結構性問題。他們中的一些人查閱了其中的一些——但可能會有一些——在美國以外，也許有些地區我們想轉換為經銷商——方法而不是直接方法。

And I'm thinking here in our health margins. We've always thought that there was cost that we needed to improve our go-to-market there. And we're just getting after that.

我在考慮我們的健康利潤率。我們一直認為，我們需要成本來改善我們在那裡的上市。而我們只是在那之後。

Got it. And then Jim, can you give us more color into what you're seeing by region? It looks like Western Europe has continued to be strong for you. We've talked about China and AHS, but outside of AHS is strong. So what are you thinking for '23?

知道了。然後吉姆，你能給我們更多關於你所看到的地區的顏色嗎？看起來西歐對你來說一直很強大。我們談到了中國和 AHS，但 AHS 以外的地方很強大。那麼你對'23有什麼看法？

You talked about orders slowing in Western Europe and North America, but is that more a function of supply chain normalizing? Or are more of your customers a little cautious to start '23?

你談到西歐和北美的訂單放緩，但這更多是供應鏈正常化的結果嗎？還是您的更多客戶對開始 23 年有點謹慎？

Yes. It's interesting. I think we've always thought for the last several months that customers would inevitably start '23 out a little more conservative just given we've seen some of the tech layoffs and some of those things, the PMI where it is.

是的。這真有趣。我認為在過去的幾個月裡，我們一直認為，考慮到我們已經看到一些技術裁員和其中一些事情，即 PMI 所在的位置，客戶不可避免地會在 23 歲開始時變得更加保守。

And so that's number one. That's kind of a planning assumption from an order perspective, also knowing that we had -- we're starting the year with a good backlog situation. I would say when you think about it regionally, Andy, obviously, North America is going to be pretty good and pretty resilient, given the fact that we have -- most of our software businesses have the predominance of their revenue streams in North America.

所以這是第一。從訂單的角度來看，這是一種計劃假設，同時也知道我們有 - 我們以良好的積壓情況開始了這一年。我想說的是，當你從區域角度考慮時，安迪，顯然，考慮到我們擁有的事實，北美將會非常好並且非常有彈性 - 我們的大多數軟件業務在北美的收入流中占主導地位。

And I mentioned the health care, particularly ASP North American story. So North America is going to be pretty resilient. I would say that Western Europe and Europe more broadly, probably a weaker area for the year. Just given the number of things, some of that is supply chains normalizing a little bit back to normal. Some of it is just a little bit of weakness as well.

我提到了醫療保健，尤其是 ASP 北美的故事。所以北美將非常有彈性。我會說西歐和更廣泛的歐洲，可能是今年較弱的地區。考慮到事情的數量，其中一些是供應鏈正常化一點點恢復正常。其中一些也只是一點點弱點。

China is going to be good all year. Health care will be weak in China in the first quarter because of electives, but should continue to get better through the year. So that's kind of the regional play, and that's sort of our planning assumptions going forward.

中國一年四季都會好。由於選修課，第一季度中國的醫療保健將表現不佳，但全年應該會繼續好轉。所以這是一種區域性的遊戲，這是我們未來的規劃假設。

So I think it's still early days. Obviously, a lot for the year to play out here. But that was -- that's sort of fundamental to our planning assumptions.

所以我認為現在還為時尚早。顯然，今年有很多事情可以在這裡進行。但那是——這是我們計劃假設的基礎。

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

Hope everybody is well. Not to beat a dead horse on this hardware backlog conversion and sort of what's in the guide but not, but I just want to be clear here, Chuck, on that comment that you really only have about half of the excess backlog getting worked down.

希望大家都好。不要在這個硬件積壓轉換和指南中的某些內容上打敗死馬，但我只想在這裡說清楚，查克，關於那個評論，你真的只有大約一半的多餘積壓得到解決。

I don't know how fungible that backlog is even within something like tech where it's a little bit more weighted, but am I to understand then that like orders on a volume basis could be down close to double digits, and you guys are basically still hitting the guide if you can work down that backlog fully this year, providing there's no like other governor in the way? Is that sort of a fair way to think about how that's calibrated?

我不知道即使在像技術這樣的權重更高的領域，積壓訂單的可替代性有多大，但我是否可以理解，訂單量可能會下降接近兩位數，你們基本上還在如果你今年能完全解決積壓的問題，是否會達到指南，前提是沒有像其他州長那樣的阻礙？這是考慮如何校準的一種公平方式嗎？

Yes. I mean -- yes, that's not what we're seeing here in there. But what we are seeing is the reason we can't get the backlog down more is it's more supply chain constrained. We've got so much material that's the way I'm thinking of it. So if orders go down $10 million more, that doesn't necessarily change our revenue guidance. If that's what you're saying, I would agree with that.

是的。我的意思是——是的，這不是我們在這裡看到的。但我們所看到的是，我們無法進一步減少積壓的原因是供應鏈受到更多限制。我們有這麼多材料，這就是我的想法。因此，如果訂單再減少 1000 萬美元，那不一定會改變我們的收入指引。如果這就是你所說的，我會同意這一點。

Got it. And that's where I was going.

知道了。這就是我要去的地方。

Yes, I was just going to add that it's -- as you said, it depends on the business. We -- as you pointed out, a little bit more backlog in tech. So it does matter where the orders go down relative to how we can make it off. So that certainly is part of it. But we ought to think of that extra -- the half that isn't planned to go out as an insurance policy against some additional decline.

是的，我只是想補充一點——正如你所說，這取決於業務。我們——正如你所指出的，在技術方面有更多的積壓。因此，相對於我們如何實現訂單而言，訂單下降的位置確實很重要。所以這當然是其中的一部分。但我們應該考慮額外的 - 沒有計劃作為防止額外下降的保險單的一半。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I guess sort of related to -- I think it was Jeff Sprague's question on price cost, maybe taking a step back and just thinking about kind of total bullet effect on supply chain, I would imagine there were some frictional costs last year that probably get better, but maybe you're also kind of working down some inventories. Is there some sort of like offsetting absorption hit to the absence of those frictional costs? Or how would you sort of balance those 2 as a net headwind versus tailwind for this year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我想有點相關 - 我認為這是 Jeff Sprague 關於價格成本的問題，也許退後一步，想想對供應鏈的總子彈效應，我想去年有一些摩擦成本可能會變得更好，但也許你也在減少一些庫存。如果沒有這些摩擦成本，是否有某種抵消吸收的影響？或者您如何平衡這兩個因素作為今年的淨逆風與順風？

Well, I would think it this way. There are some spot buy costs that probably go away from '22, for sure. But there are some embedded costs in the standards that are going to be with us here for a little while.

好吧，我會這樣想。當然，有一些現貨購買成本可能會從 22 年開始消失。但是標準中有一些內嵌成本，這些成本將在我們這裡持續一段時間。

I think the real thought is we have a price cost like we have been. We'll grow gross margins more in '23 than we did in '22. So in that sense, I think we're going to be -- as we've shown over the last several quarters, the media had -- we're not too worried from a factory absorption perspective, if that's -- if you're going in that direction, we won't worry about that.

我認為真正的想法是我們像以前一樣有價格成本。與 22 年相比，23 年我們的毛利率增長幅度更大。因此，從這個意義上說，我認為我們將 - 正如我們在過去幾個季度所展示的那樣，媒體已經 - 從工廠吸收的角度來看，我們並不太擔心，如果那是 - 如果你'朝那個方向前進，我們不會擔心那個。

Where we'll really be focused on is making sure a number of commodities are down or will be lower, things like metals, plastics, but the majority of our buy is electronic components, and that will take a little bit longer to sort of wean ourselves from some of that inflation that we saw this year.

我們真正關注的是確保一些商品價格下跌或將會下跌，比如金屬、塑料，但我們購買的大部分是電子元件，這需要更長的時間才能停止我們自己從我們今年看到的一些通貨膨脹中解脫出來。

So we plan to -- I think we're super aggressive in that regard. We'll get after everything. We have great supply chain teams, but it will take a little while. But I think you're going to see that throughout the year as the gross margins continue to look good.

所以我們計劃——我認為我們在這方面非常積極。我們會搞定一切的。我們有很棒的供應鏈團隊，但這需要一點時間。但我認為你會在全年看到這一點，因為毛利率繼續保持良好狀態。

Our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。

Good day, everybody. Can we put the spotlight on free cash flow here? It looks like Fortive is the only company we've seen that is over delivered in the fourth quarter, significantly above your 4Q average. And Chuck, you mentioned some working capital initiatives, you could take us through that, but also there was a reference about collections hold into the fourth quarter from the first quarter. So what was the dynamic there?

大家好。我們可以把焦點放在自由現金流上嗎？看起來 Fortive 是我們見過的唯一一家在第四季度超額交付的公司，大大高於您的第四季度平均水平。查克，你提到了一些營運資金計劃，你可以帶我們了解一下，但也有關於從第一季度到第四季度的收款的參考。那麼那裡的動態是什麼？

Yes, a couple of things. We always have a lot of work, as you know, looking at our working capital across all of our operating companies is the focus that we've had all year long, and it's been a challenge. It always is, but we've really done a great job.

是的，有幾件事。如您所知，我們總是有很多工作要做，審視我們所有運營公司的營運資金是我們一整年的重點，這一直是一個挑戰。它一直是，但我們確實做得很好。

ASP actually is a stand out there. So I think that's really what we were talking about there. But they weren't the only ones. We had a couple of really good places. I wouldn't say (inaudible) so much. It's really thinking about it as just some time. We thought we had a really -- we did have a really strong guide, and we came in a little stronger that. There could be of -- sometimes you just get your own receipts.

ASP 實際上是其中的佼佼者。所以我認為這就是我們在那裡談論的內容。但他們不是唯一的。我們有幾個非常好的地方。我不會說（聽不清）那麼多。真的把它想成只是一些時間。我們認為我們有一個真正的——我們確實有一個非常強大的指南，而且我們的指南更強大了一點。可能有——有時你只是得到自己的收據。

Sometimes they come in (inaudible) in Q1. This time, I probably think maybe 20 million came in a little early. You really can't do much about that. It's just whether they -- sometimes when they cut a check before New Year's or after. That's -- but we were very pleased with our free cash flow performance all year long.

有時它們會在第一季度出現（聽不清）。這一次，我可能認為 2000 萬可能來得有點早。你真的無能為力。這只是他們是否 - 有時他們在新年之前或之後削減支票。那是——但我們對全年的自由現金流表現感到非常滿意。

Yes. It looks -- you came in at [$107 million]. So that's right in the sweet spot for you all.

是的。看起來——你的收入是 [1.07 億美元]。所以這對你們所有人來說都是最佳選擇。

And then a follow-up question on cross-selling. Jim, you mentioned sensing having some success in cross-selling. Just kind of take us through what's going on there? How much is that encouraged? How do you track cross-selling? And what are the opportunities?

然後是關於交叉銷售的後續問題。吉姆，你提到傳感在交叉銷售方面取得了一些成功。只是帶我們了解那裡發生了什麼？這是多少鼓勵？您如何跟踪交叉銷售？機會是什麼？

Yes. Deane, I think number one is, you, I know you know, when -- we've seen a little -- in a couple of places, we've seen new logo. With things get a little slow, particularly starting the year out, new logos may be a little bit harder to grab on to as people maybe take a month or so to maybe an extra 30 days to close business.

是的。迪恩，我認為第一是，你，我知道你知道，當 - 我們已經看到了一些 - 在幾個地方，我們看到了新標誌。隨著事情變得有點緩慢，尤其是在今年年初，新標識可能會更難抓住，因為人們可能需要一個月左右甚至額外的 30 天才能關閉業務。

But cross-selling and upselling is something you can do every day. And so our presidents are very much tuned in times like this where maybe things are still a little bit more -- there's a little bit more ambiguity out there as to how the year is going to play out.

但是交叉銷售和追加銷售是您每天都可以做的事情。因此，我們的總統在這樣的時代非常關注，也許事情還有更多——關於今年將如何結束還有更多的不確定性。

The teams are really conditioned to really move the sales motion to more cross-selling, and that really drives our net dollar retention. We talked about it in a couple of individual places. We've got over -- we've got a number of businesses that are well over 105 now. We're about 102. So the metric we're really used to drive that is cross -- is net dollar retention.

這些團隊真的有條件真正將銷售動議轉移到更多的交叉銷售上，這確實推動了我們的淨美元保留。我們在幾個單獨的地方討論過它。我們已經結束了——我們現在擁有許多超過 105 家的企業。我們大約是 102。因此，我們真正用來推動交叉的指標是淨美元保留率。

And so what we're really pushed out on early in the year is get those renewals, drive gross retention up and then drive the cross-selling and upselling as well. So I think we're well -- from a process perspective, FBS has a number of tools that support those efforts with customer success organizations. That's a big focus for us here at the start of the year.

因此，我們在今年年初真正推出的是獲得續訂，提高總保留率，然後推動交叉銷售和追加銷售。所以我認為我們很好 - 從流程的角度來看，FBS 有許多工具可以支持客戶成功組織的這些努力。這是我們今年年初的一大重點。

Our next question comes from Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

I wanted to start just more macro, and I think what you're talking about on the orders front is more just kind of backlog normalization as supply chain corrects. But as you go through that, I mean, how do you think about coming out on the other side?

我想從更宏觀的角度開始，我認為你在訂單方面所說的更像是供應鏈糾正時的積壓正常化。但是當你經歷這些時，我的意思是，你如何看待站在另一邊？

And how do you think that it's sort of a soft landing type of environment when we see sort of industrial production, and we see PMI. So just, in general, what you're seeing on kind of structural growth or outgrowth and kind of confidence that backlogs normalize, and then the growth is there on the other side.

當我們看到某種工業生產和 PMI 時，你如何看待它是一種軟著陸類型的環境。所以，總的來說，你所看到的結構性增長或結果以及積壓正常化的信心，然後是另一邊的增長。

Yes. Joe, I think it really goes back. It will have an opportunity to really give a lot of this detail on our Investor Day in May. But I think when we really think about this is really how we've moved the growth rate, our long term through the cycle growth rate to mid-single digits.

是的。喬，我認為它真的可以追溯到過去。它將有機會在 5 月的投資者日真正提供很多此類細節。但我認為，當我們真正考慮到這一點時，我們實際上是如何將增長率、我們的長期週期增長率提高到中等個位數的。

So we got 2 really strong years of growth, 10%, average in the last 2 years. That's on the back of a number of things we've done from a portfolio perspective. And just demand has been better than historically. But as we get into '24 and we normalized around the kind of things that we would see, we certainly would continue to see that mid-single digit as a number on the back of continued stabilization of the macro for some of our product businesses.

所以我們有 2 年非常強勁的增長，10%，過去 2 年的平均增長率。這是基於我們從投資組合的角度所做的許多事情。只是需求比歷史上要好。但隨著我們進入 24 世紀，我們圍繞我們將看到的事情進行了標準化，我們當然會繼續將中個位數視為一個數字，因為我們的一些產品業務的宏觀經濟持續穩定。

Obviously, continued improvement in our health care businesses and just the strength of success that we've had in software. And those sort of combination pillars really are going to be what really drives that mid-single-digit growth rate. As we said, as things normalize here, hopefully sooner rather than later.

顯然，我們醫療保健業務的持續改進以及我們在軟件方面的成功實力。而這些組合支柱確實將成為真正推動中等個位數增長率的因素。正如我們所說，隨著這裡一切正常化，希望越早越好。

Got it. And then I think in the prepared comments, you mentioned some actions to counter some of the slowing, you're not sure what might be happening on the cost front, but anything that you could expand on there?

知道了。然後我認為在準備好的評論中，你提到了一些措施來應對一些放緩，你不確定成本方面可能會發生什麼，但你可以在那裡擴展什麼？

Well, yes, I think as Chuck described, it's really kind of across the segments. And it really deals with a number of things. Certainly looking at certain product lines that maybe are a little slower than -- over the next few years, we closed a couple of rooftops, continue to do some things on the lease front as we continue to consolidate our real estate footprint.

好吧，是的，我認為正如查克所描述的那樣，它確實跨越了各個細分市場。它確實處理了很多事情。當然，看看某些產品線可能會比 - 在接下來的幾年裡，我們關閉了幾個屋頂，繼續在租賃方面做一些事情，因為我們繼續鞏固我們的房地產足跡。

So a number of those things are really what we're talking about. It's an accelerated rate, given kind of after a couple of years of 10% growth. We may be more focused on the growth, maybe a little bit more focused on supply chain. But now as things start to normalize here, we're back to getting after some things. And in the traditional sense, we want to be ahead of those things. And that's really what we were talking about.

因此，其中一些事情確實是我們正在談論的內容。這是一個加速的速度，在經歷了幾年 10% 的增長之後。我們可能更關注增長，也許更關注供應鏈。但現在隨著這裡的情況開始正常化，我們又回到了一些事情上。在傳統意義上，我們希望領先於那些事情。這就是我們真正談論的內容。

Our last question will come from Joe Giordano from Cowen.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Cowen 的 Joe Giordano。

I just want to follow up a couple of things on the orders here. Particularly -- and let's strip out like the AHS and look more on the hardware stuff in PT and Fluke and Tech. What gives you confidence that orders in the second half of the year start to get better?

我只想跟進這裡訂單的幾件事。特別是 - 讓我們像 AHS 一樣剝離出來，更多地了解 PT 和 Fluke and Tech 中的硬件內容。是什麼讓您有信心下半年的訂單開始好轉？

I guess like just the revenue guide suggested you exited kind of the lowest point of the year. And you said tech orders were up like 40% over a period of time here. So like is it just going from plus 40 to normal levels? Is that like reasonable? Or like could you see declines in orders because of the magnitude at which they expanded over -- felt relatively short of time?

我想就像收入指南建議你退出今年的最低點一樣。你說技術訂單在一段時間內增長了 40%。那麼就像它只是從加 40 到正常水平嗎？這好像合理嗎？或者你能看到訂單下降是因為它們擴張的幅度——感覺時間相對較短嗎？

Well, as we said, I think, in the first half, we're going to see some of those declines as we described. I might note, point of sale is still really strong. So at Fluke and Tech, we don't only get that scenario in a coal mine question around Fluke.

好吧，正如我們所說，我認為，在上半年，我們將看到我們所描述的其中一些下降。我可能會注意到，銷售點仍然非常強大。因此，在 Fluke and Tech，我們不僅僅在圍繞 Fluke 的煤礦問題中遇到這種情況。

And quite frankly, Fluke's point-of-sale has stayed strong. So we think that will moderate as some of the macro impact certainly moves that number down. But you're working on such high comps relative to the last few years, is that any moderation whatsoever could make it look negative, but really, quite frankly, is not a significant issue relative to both the backlog and kind of where we're at relative to the historical perspective.

坦率地說，Fluke 的銷售點一直很強勁。因此，我們認為隨著一些宏觀影響肯定會使該數字下降，這將有所緩和。但是，相對於過去幾年，你正在從事如此高的工作，任何節制都會讓它看起來很消極，但實際上，坦率地說，相對於積壓和我們所處的位置，這並不是一個重要的問題在相對於歷史的角度。

So yes, we'll -- some of that improvement in the second half is comps, for sure. But some of it -- we think sensing probably, as an example, probably stayed a little rough through the year. And we get -- we know what the OEMs are doing right now.

所以是的，我們會 - 下半場的一些改進肯定是補償。但其中一些——我們認為，作為一個例子，傳感可能在這一年中都有些粗糙。我們得到——我們知道原始設備製造商現在在做什麼。

So we mentioned in the prepared remarks, some places in industrial, like industrial automation in some parts of the world like China. But on balance, when we look at the sum total of Sensing, Fluke and Tech, we still think there'll be a little bit of improvement in the second half.

所以我們在準備好的發言中提到了工業中的一些地方，比如世界某些地方的工業自動化，比如中國。但總的來說，當我們查看 Sensing、Fluke 和 Tech 的總和時，我們仍然認為下半年會有一點改善。

But we don't need a big improvement necessarily to really deliver what we described. And as we've talked on a couple of the questions, we've got some backlog to as an insurance policy against those things maybe declining a little bit more than we anticipated.

但我們不一定需要大的改進才能真正實現我們所描述的內容。當我們討論了幾個問題時，我們有一些積壓作為針對這些事情的保險政策可能會比我們預期的下降更多。

Okay. So you're saying it's more of a dollar thing? I mean more of a comp math thing than dollars, I guess?

好的。所以你是說它更像是一美元的東西？我想我的意思更多的是計算數學而不是美元？

That's right. That's right. I mean we're really looking at some pretty significant growth rates over the last couple of years in orders that were much bigger than our revenue numbers because of the supply chain issues and the creation of a bigger backlog, and quite frankly, a bigger pass-through backlog, which we've started to burn down as we've talked about throughout the day.

這是正確的。這是正確的。我的意思是，由於供應鏈問題和更大積壓訂單的產生，坦率地說，更大的通過-通過積壓，正如我們一整天都在談論的那樣，我們已經開始燃燒掉這些積壓。

Okay. And then just last for me. You talked about, I guess, theoretical M&A on the call so far. But if you -- in a theoretical situation where equity was a component of a purchase, like how do you think about what your return hurdles would be in scenarios like that where equity is part of it?

好的。然後對我來說最後一次。到目前為止，我猜你在電話會議上談到了理論上的併購。但是如果你 - 在股權是購買的一部分的理論情況下，比如你如何看待在股權是其中一部分的情況下你的回報障礙是什麼？

Well, first of all, I think it's clear -- we're trying to convey here is discipline. We'll continue to be the word of the day relative to M&A. And I think we -- our return hurdles are going to be what our return hurdles are.

好吧，首先，我認為很清楚——我們試圖在這里傳達的是紀律。我們將繼續成為與併購相關的熱門話題。我認為我們——我們的回歸障礙將是我們的回歸障礙。

We've talked about 10% ROIC for the various kinds of deals, and we'll continue to think about that. I think what we've been trying to describe is situations in which we'll be disciplined.

我們已經討論了各種交易的 10% ROIC，我們將繼續考慮這一點。我認為我們一直試圖描述的是我們將受到紀律處分的情況。

I think what you've seen in '22 is the strong returns of that, certainly, the most recent M&A that we've done for ServiceChannel, beating their first year numbers as an example to that, but also the deals that we did 5, 6 years ago that are just performing outstanding like (inaudible).

我認為你在 22 年看到的是強勁的回報，當然，我們最近為 ServiceChannel 進行的併購，以超過他們第一年的數字為例，還有我們所做的交易 5 ，6 年前那隻是表現出色（聽不清）。

So I think we're in a great place from a balance sheet perspective to deploy capital. And I would be much more focused on our discipline around returns and our discipline around accelerating strategy in places where we can really do that.

因此，我認為從資產負債表的角度來看，我們處於配置資本的好位置。而且我會更加關注我們圍繞回報的紀律以及我們在我們真正可以做到這一點的地方加速戰略的紀律。

We are all out of time for questions today. I would like to turn the call back over to Jim Lico for closing remarks.

今天我們都沒有時間提問了。我想將電話轉回給 Jim Lico 以作結束語。

Thanks, Julianne, and thanks, everyone, for spending the time with us today. We really appreciate -- we know you're busy this week with a number of things.

謝謝 Julianne，也謝謝大家今天花時間和我們在一起。我們真的很感激——我們知道你這週忙於很多事情。

I think what you heard from us today is a real sense of pride of what we did in 2022. We said '22 was going to be a show-me year, and I think what you saw through the quarters and certainly in the full year numbers, the real power of the Fortive Business System and the ability for us to use the FBS tool to accelerate.

我認為您今天從我們這裡聽到的是對我們在 2022 年所做的事情的真正自豪感。我們說 22 年將是展示我的一年，我認為您在整個季度以及全年肯定看到了數字、Fortive 業務系統的真正力量以及我們使用 FBS 工具加速的能力。

We try to convey the fact that getting back into in-person Kaizen is something that's really important to us from a cultural perspective and from an ability to deliver in any sort of economic times. And that acceleration of in-person events, we tried to demonstrate and show you some examples of that. We're back to work in that regard as we get into '23.

我們試圖傳達這樣一個事實，即從文化角度和任何經濟時代的交付能力來看，回到面對面的 Kaizen 對我們來說非常重要。面對面活動的加速，我們試圖向您展示並向您展示一些例子。當我們進入 23 年時，我們將在這方面重新開始工作。

We look forward to continuing to share our strategies in May with you. And I think what you'll see this year and what you're seeing in our guide is the continued improvement in our portfolio and the strength of our culture and our business system.

我們期待在 5 月份繼續與您分享我們的策略。我認為你今年會看到的以及你在我們的指南中看到的是我們產品組合的持續改進以及我們文化和業務系統的實力。

Special thanks to our 18,000 teammates around the world to make that happen and make it happen every day. Thanks, everybody. Have a great day. We look forward to the follow-up calls, and we'll see you soon. Take care.

特別感謝我們在世界各地的 18,000 名隊友，是他們讓這一切成為現實，並讓這一切每天都在發生。謝謝大家。祝你有美好的一天。我們期待後續電話，我們很快就會見到你。小心。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。