TechnipFMC PLC (FTI) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for holding, and welcome everyone to the TechnipFMC Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持，歡迎大家參加 TechnipFMC 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Matt Seinsheimer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Mr. Seinsheimer, please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和企業發展高級副總裁 Matt Seinsheimer。 Seinsheimer 先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Jack. Good morning and good afternoon, and welcome to TechnipFMC's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Our news release and financial statements issued earlier today can be found on our website. I'd like to caution you with respect to any forward-looking statements made during this call. Although these forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations, beliefs and assumptions regarding future developments and business conditions, they're subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these statements.

謝謝你，傑克。早上好，下午好，歡迎來到 TechnipFMC 的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿和財務報表可以在我們的網站上找到。對於本次電話會議期間所做的任何前瞻性陳述，我想提醒您。儘管這些前瞻性陳述是基於我們目前對未來發展和業務狀況的預期、信念和假設，但它們受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些陳述中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

Known material factors that could cause our actual results to differ from our projected results are described in our most recent 10-K, most recent 10-Q and other periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. We wish to caution you not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of our forward-looking statements after the date they are made, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

我們最近的 10-K、最近的 10-Q 和其他定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述了可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期結果不同的已知重要因素。我們希望提醒您不要過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅代表截至本文發布之日的情況。我們沒有義務在作出聲明之日後公開更新或修改我們的任何前瞻性聲明，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。

I will now turn the call over to Doug Pferdehirt, TechnipFMC's Chair and Chief Executive Officer.

我現在將把電話轉給 TechnipFMC 的主席兼首席執行官 Doug Pferdehirt。

Thank you, Matt. Good morning and good afternoon. Thank you for participating in our fourth quarter earnings call. It is clear that we are in the midst of a multiyear growth cycle as evidenced by the continued growth we experienced across our company in 2022. Inbound orders for the full year grew 20% to $8.1 billion, driven by Subsea inbound of $6.7 billion, which increased 36% versus the prior year. The strength of the inbound resulted in 24% growth in Subsea backlog to $8.1 billion at year-end. And as we will discuss in a moment, we anticipate further growth in 2023.

謝謝你，馬特。早上好，下午好。感謝您參加我們的第四季度財報電話會議。很明顯，我們正處於多年增長周期之中，2022 年我們整個公司的持續增長證明了這一點。全年的入境訂單增長了 20%，達到 81 億美元，這主要得益於 Subsea 入境訂單 67 億美元，其中比上年增長 36%。入境業務的強勁增長導致年底海底訂單訂單增長 24% 至 81 億美元。正如我們稍後將討論的那樣，我們預計 2023 年會進一步增長。

For the full year, total company revenue grew 5% to $6.7 billion. while adjusted EBITDA improved to $670 million when excluding the impact of foreign exchange, an increase of nearly 20% when compared to the same metric in the prior year. These results demonstrate continued improvement in revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin in both operating segments and reflect our strong commitment to deliver on our financial objectives. In 2022, we also materially improved our financial position. We generated free cash flow from continuing operations of $194 million for the year and gross debt was reduced by nearly 1/3.

全年，公司總收入增長 5% 至 67 億美元。而在排除外匯影響後，調整後的 EBITDA 增至 6.7 億美元，與上一年的同一指標相比增長了近 20%。這些結果表明兩個運營部門的收入和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率持續改善，反映了我們對實現財務目標的堅定承諾。 2022 年，我們的財務狀況也得到了實質性改善。我們全年從持續經營中產生了 1.94 億美元的自由現金流，總債務減少了近 1/3。

At our Analyst Day in 2021, we announced our intention to begin shareholder distributions in the second half of 2023. Given the significant valuation opportunity we saw in our shares and the steady progress made in reducing our outstanding debt, we accelerated the time line by a full 12 months with the authorization of a $400 million share buyback program in July. We immediately put the plan in action and repurchased $100 million of our shares by year-end. We also remain committed to a quarterly dividend, which we intend to initiate in the second half of this year.

在 2021 年的分析師日，我們宣布打算在 2023 年下半年開始分配股東。鑑於我們在股票中看到的重大估值機會以及在減少未償債務方面取得的穩步進展，我們將時間表加快了7 月份 4 億美元的股票回購計劃獲批整整 12 個月。我們立即將計劃付諸實施，並在年底前回購了價值 1 億美元的股票。我們還繼續致力於季度股息，我們打算在今年下半年啟動。

Looking beyond 2022, we remain confident in the strength of this up cycle and continue to believe that international markets will lead the next leg of expansion. International can largely be defined as offshore and the Middle East, and TechnipFMC is uniquely positioned to take full advantage of this growth. More than 90% of our revenue is generated outside the North America land market, and we have leading positions that are geographically levered to many of these important growth markets.

展望 2022 年之後，我們對這一上升週期的力量仍然充滿信心，並繼續相信國際市場將引領下一階段的擴張。國際在很大程度上可以定義為離岸和中東，而 TechnipFMC 具有獨特的優勢，可以充分利用這種增長。我們超過 90% 的收入來自北美陸地市場以外的地區，我們在許多重要的增長市場中佔據領先地位。

Focusing first on offshore. Our Subsea opportunities list, which highlights larger projects with the potential for award over the next 24 months, continues to represent a record level of potential project activity amongst an expanding customer base in all major offshore basins. The average project size on this list has grown to nearly $750 million, driven by momentum in large greenfield activity. In addition to these more visible opportunities, we continue to forecast strong tieback activity in major markets, such as the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea and West Africa, many of which are direct awarded to our company.

首先關注離岸。我們的海底機會清單重點介紹了未來 24 個月內可能授予的大型項目，繼續代表所有主要近海盆地不斷擴大的客戶群中潛在項目活動的創紀錄水平。在大型綠地活動勢頭的推動下，這份名單上的平均項目規模已增長到近 7.5 億美元。除了這些更明顯的機會外，我們繼續預測主要市場（例如墨西哥灣、北海和西非）的強勁回接活動，其中許多直接授予我們公司。

We have announced several projects totaling $1 billion for the first quarter, a solid start to the year. These include Aker BP's very first iEPCI project, a direct award for the Utsira High development in Norway. This award further highlights the growing list of clients who are choosing the benefits of our integrated commercial model. We expect to see a material increase in the value of iEPCI awards in 2023, leading to a record year for integrated project awards.

我們已經宣布了第一季度總計 10 億美元的幾個項目，這是今年的一個良好開端。其中包括 Aker BP 的第一個 iEPCI 項目，該項目直接授予挪威 Utsira High 開發項目。該獎項進一步凸顯了越來越多的客戶選擇我們的集成商業模式的好處。我們預計 2023 年 iEPCI 獎項的價值將大幅增加，從而使綜合項目獎項創下歷史新高。

And as our installed base continues to grow, we are forecasting a further increase in Subsea services activity. When taken together, we expect direct awards, iEPCI and Subsea services to represent more than 70% of our total inbound in 2023. While the strengthening offshore activity is likely to be our primary driver of revenue growth, we also expect significant investment to continue in land-based resources, particularly in the Middle East. Here, we have a strong market position, and we have expanded our footprint to further leverage our in-country talent in markets such as the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

隨著我們安裝基礎的持續增長，我們預測海底服務活動將進一步增加。綜合來看，我們預計 2023 年直接獎勵、iEPCI 和海底服務將占我們入境總量的 70% 以上。雖然加強離岸活動可能是我們收入增長的主要驅動力，但我們也預計將繼續進行大量投資陸基資源，特別是在中東。在這裡，我們擁有強大的市場地位，我們擴大了我們的足跡，以進一步利用我們在阿拉伯聯合酋長國和沙特阿拉伯王國等市場的國內人才。

We have commenced work on our 10-year framework agreement with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to provide wellheads, trees and associated services. We also completed the expansion of our manufacturing capabilities in Saudi Arabia, which will support our commitment to develop a diverse and capable local workforce as part of Aramco's In-Kingdom Total Value Add program and Saudi Vision 2030. We continue to believe the Middle East represents one of the largest market opportunities this decade.

我們已經開始與阿布扎比國家石油公司簽訂為期 10 年的框架協議，以提供井口、採油樹和相關服務。我們還完成了在沙特阿拉伯的製造能力擴張，這將支持我們致力於培養多元化和有能力的當地勞動力，這是阿美公司在沙特阿拉伯的總增值計劃和沙特 2030 年願景的一部分。我們仍然相信中東代表十年來最大的市場機遇之一。

Let me now discuss how this market view impacts our company outlook for 2023 and beyond. Alf will provide more details in his remarks, but the headlines can best be summarized as follows using the midpoint of our guidance range. In 2023, we expect full year inbound orders for Subsea to exceed $8 billion, an increase of at least 20% versus the prior year. In addition to the strong project pipeline, we see Subsea services inbound increasing to $1.3 billion.

現在讓我討論一下這種市場觀點如何影響我們公司 2023 年及以後的展望。 Alf 將在他的評論中提供更多細節，但最好使用我們指導範圍的中點總結如下標題。到 2023 年，我們預計 Subsea 的全年入境訂單將超過 80 億美元，比上年增長至少 20%。除了強大的項目管道外，我們還看到海底服務流入增加到 13 億美元。

Moving to revenue. We anticipate total company results of approximately $7.5 billion, an increase of 12% versus the prior year. We anticipate similar top line growth for both segments. However, we expect nearly all of the growth in Surface Technologies to come from international markets, which represented just over half of the segment total in 2022.

轉向收入。我們預計公司總業績約為 75 億美元，比上年增長 12%。我們預計這兩個細分市場的收入增長相似。然而，我們預計 Surface Technologies 的幾乎所有增長都將來自國際市場，到 2022 年，國際市場將佔該細分市場總量的一半以上。

Before I turn the call over to Alf to discuss the specific changes, let me first provide context for these material revisions to our prior forecast. One of the primary topics at our Analyst Day in 2021 was the upside potential for Subsea margins. The key drivers we outlined at that time are still in place today; increased operating efficiency, including the transition to the configure-to-order operating model; an inflection in backlog margin; increased utilization of plants and vessels; and a stronger contribution from Subsea services.

在我將電話轉給 Alf 討論具體變化之前，讓我首先提供對我們先前預測的這些重大修訂的背景。 2021 年分析師日的主要話題之一是海底利潤率的上升潛力。我們當時概述的關鍵驅動因素今天仍然存在；提高運營效率，包括過渡到按訂單配置運營模式；積壓利潤率的變化；提高工廠和船隻的利用率；海底服務的貢獻更大。

However, we find ourselves today in a very different market environment, one that reflects a clear focus on energy security. This new environment has also led to a more collaborative approach toward resource development. The strength of our customer relationships, particularly those of our alliance partners, will prove to be of even greater value as the increased volume of work leads to greater project and partner selectivity.

然而，我們今天發現自己處於一個截然不同的市場環境中，這種環境反映了對能源安全的明確關注。這種新環境還導致了一種更具協作性的資源開發方法。隨著工作量的增加導致項目和合作夥伴的選擇性增加，我們的客戶關係，尤其是我們的聯盟合作夥伴的關係，將被證明具有更大的價值。

We have also seen greater alignment and contract terms and conditions where customers see the value in working with a technology provider that has demonstrated time and again the ability to deliver projects on time and on budget. The comprehensive capabilities of TechnipFMC are unmatched and well suited for this environment. iEPCI and Subsea 2.0 create differentiation, but more importantly, they create value and greater certainty of outcome. They are also supported by ongoing initiatives, focused on industrialization within our company that will likely result in even greater efficiencies over time.

我們還看到了更大的一致性和合同條款和條件，客戶看到了與技術提供商合作的價值，這些技術提供商一再證明有能力按時和按預算交付項目。 TechnipFMC 的綜合功能無與倫比，非常適合這種環境。 iEPCI 和 Subsea 2.0 創造了差異化，但更重要的是，它們創造了價值和更大的結果確定性。他們還得到正在進行的舉措的支持，這些舉措專注於我們公司內部的工業化，隨著時間的推移，這些舉措可能會帶來更高的效率。

In summary, we closed 2022 having delivered on many notable achievements. We enter 2023 with a strong market outlook and a further step-up in our targeted financial performance. Our revised 2025 outlook encompasses our most current view, it reflects the improved environment, the value we can bring to the marketplace, and the operational momentum we see within our business. We now expect $25 billion of Subsea inbound through 2025 for our company. And with this, we expect 2025 will demonstrate significant progress on our path to much improved financial returns. Most importantly, 2025 does not mark the endpoint, but rather a major milestone on a more ambitious journey ahead.

總之，我們在 2022 年結束時取得了許多顯著成就。我們帶著強勁的市場前景進入 2023 年，並進一步提升了我們的目標財務業績。我們修訂後的 2025 年展望包含了我們最新的觀點，它反映了改善的環境、我們可以為市場帶來的價值以及我們在業務中看到的運營勢頭。我們現在預計，到 2025 年，我們公司的海底投資將達到 250 億美元。因此，我們預計 2025 年將在我們大幅提高財務回報的道路上取得重大進展。最重要的是，2025 年並不標誌著終點，而是更雄心勃勃的未來旅程中的一個重要里程碑。

I will now turn the call over to Alf.

我現在將把電話轉給阿爾夫。

Thanks, Doug. Total company inbound orders were $1.8 billion in the quarter. Subsea inbound was $1.5 billion, putting full year orders at $6.7 billion, an increase of 36% versus the prior year. Surface Technologies inbound was $327 million in the period with full year inbound of $1.3 billion. Total company backlog increased 6% sequentially to $9.4 billion. Total company revenue in the quarter was $1.7 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $158 million when excluding a foreign exchange loss of $37 million. The fourth quarter adjusted loss from continuing operations, which excluded after-tax charges of $6 million, was $21 million or $0.05 per share, and it included the foreign exchange loss.

謝謝，道格。本季度公司入境訂單總額為 18 億美元。海底入境業務為 15 億美元，全年訂單為 67 億美元，比上年增長 36%。在此期間，Surface Technologies 的入境收入為 3.27 億美元，全年入境收入為 13 億美元。公司積壓訂單總額環比增長 6% 至 94 億美元。本季度公司總收入為 17 億美元，扣除 3700 萬美元的匯兌損失後，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.58 億美元。第四季度調整後的持續經營虧損（不包括 600 萬美元的稅後費用）為 2100 萬美元或每股 0.05 美元，其中包括匯兌損失。

For the quarter, we delivered results that exceeded our expectations for both segments, allowing us to achieve the full year guidance we provided at the beginning of the year. Cash flow from continuing operations was $566 million and capital expenditures were just over $63 million, resulting in free cash flow of $503 million in the quarter. For the full year, free cash flow was $194 million. We ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.1 billion. Net debt was $309 million, which was a reduction of $346 million from the third quarter.

對於本季度，我們交付的結果超出了我們對這兩個部門的預期，使我們能夠實現我們在年初提供的全年指導。來自持續經營的現金流為 5.66 億美元，資本支出剛剛超過 6300 萬美元，導致本季度的自由現金流為 5.03 億美元。全年，自由現金流為 1.94 億美元。本季度末，我們的現金和現金等價物為 11 億美元。淨債務為 3.09 億美元，比第三季度減少 3.46 億美元。

Now let me turn to shareholder distributions. In the fourth quarter, we repurchased shares amounting to $50 million bringing the full year total to $100 million. This means that we have completed 25% of our share repurchase program in just 5 months. We repurchased shares at an average price that is 25% below last night's close. And for the full year, we distributed just over 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders, while still improving our financial strength. As we have demonstrated in 2022, we are fully committed to returning cash to shareholders, and we continue to believe that our shares represent attractive value.

現在讓我談談股東分配。第四季度，我們回購了價值 5000 萬美元的股票，使全年總額達到 1 億美元。這意味著我們在短短 5 個月內完成了 25% 的股票回購計劃。我們以比昨晚收盤價低 25% 的平均價格回購了股票。全年，我們將超過 50% 的自由現金流分配給了股東，同時仍在提高我們的財務實力。正如我們在 2022 年所展示的那樣，我們完全致力於向股東返還現金，我們仍然相信我們的股票代表著有吸引力的價值。

Let me now move to guidance. In his prepared remarks, Doug spoke to the breadth of the market strength and our outlook for further order growth. This is yet another tailwind that we expect will translate into stronger financial results for our company in 2023 and beyond. We have provided detailed guidance for the current fiscal year in our earnings release. I won't speak to each item at this time. However, I will provide context around a few items, including our expectations for Q1 results.

現在讓我轉向指導。在準備好的發言中，道格談到了市場實力的廣度和我們對進一步訂單增長的前景。這是又一個順風，我們預計它將轉化為我們公司在 2023 年及以後更強勁的財務業績。我們在收益發布中為當前財政年度提供了詳細的指導。我現在不會講每一個項目。但是，我將提供幾個項目的背景信息，包括我們對第一季度結果的預期。

Let me begin with Subsea. At the midpoint of our guidance range, we anticipate revenue of $6.1 billion at a margin of 13%, which results in adjusted EBITDA growth of 26% for the full year. This also assumes continued growth in subsea services. As a reminder, in Subsea, the first and fourth quarters of each year typically experienced weather-related seasonality that negatively impacts installation and services activity. Conversely, the second and third quarters benefit from a seasonal uplift of vessel-based activity, which drives both revenue and margin higher. In the first quarter, Subsea results should continue to reflect this seasonality with both revenue and margin, essentially in line with our Q4 results.

讓我從海底開始。在我們指導範圍的中點，我們預計收入為 61 億美元，利潤率為 13%，這導致全年調整後的 EBITDA 增長 26%。這也假設海底服務持續增長。提醒一下，在海底，每年的第一季度和第四季度通常會經歷與天氣相關的季節性，這會對安裝和服務活動產生負面影響。相反，第二和第三季度受益於船舶活動的季節性增長，這推動了收入和利潤率的提高。在第一季度，Subsea 的業績應該會繼續反映這種季節性的收入和利潤率，與我們第四季度的業績基本一致。

For Surface Technologies, at the midpoint of our guidance range, we anticipate full year revenue of $1.375 billion at a margin of 13%, resulting in adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 30% versus the prior year. We anticipate revenue growth will be driven almost entirely by international markets. Our continued ramp-up in activity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over the first half of the year should result in international revenue growth of approximately 20%.

對於 Surface Technologies，在我們指導範圍的中點，我們預計全年收入為 13.75 億美元，利潤率為 13%，導致調整後的 EBITDA 比上一年增長近 30%。我們預計收入增長將幾乎完全由國際市場推動。今年上半年，我們在沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合酋長國的活動繼續增加，國際收入將增長約 20%。

Our North American results will be impacted by actions taken to eliminate underperforming locations and product lines across the region, which we estimate will negatively impact total segment revenue growth by approximately 4 percentage points in 2023. More importantly, we expect these actions will have a favorable impact on profitability.

我們在北美的業績將受到為消除該地區表現不佳的地點和產品線而採取的行動的影響，我們估計這將對 2023 年分部總收入增長產生約 4 個百分點的負面影響。更重要的是，我們預計這些行動將產生有利影響對盈利能力的影響。

Looking at the first quarter, we expect total segment revenue to decline by approximately 10% sequentially, with decremental EBITDA margins of approximately 30% versus the fourth quarter. Beyond the segments, we anticipate full year capital expenditures of $250 million, just over 3% of revenue. And finally, we are guiding free cash flow for the year to a range of $225 million to $375 million, the midpoint of which is more than 50% above the prior year, reflecting the improved EBITDA as well as higher conversion of EBITDA to cash.

展望第一季度，我們預計分部總收入將環比下降約 10%，EBITDA 利潤率較第四季度下降約 30%。除了這些細分市場，我們預計全年資本支出為 2.5 億美元，略高於收入的 3%。最後，我們將今年的自由現金流引導至 2.25 億美元至 3.75 億美元的範圍內，其中中點比上一年高出 50% 以上，反映出 EBITDA 的改善以及 EBITDA 到現金的更高轉化率。

Now I want to give an update on the intermediate-term financial outlook that we provided at our Analyst Day. Within Subsea, we now see the following for 2025. Inbound orders totaling approximately $25 billion from 2023 through 2025. This would include Subsea services inbound orders of approximately $1.65 billion in 2025, revenue of approximately $8 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 18%. Additionally, we expect to convert 50% of total company EBITDA into free cash flow in 2025. All other guidance items pertaining to our 2025 outlook and normalized framework previously provided remain unchanged.

現在我想更新一下我們在分析師日提供的中期財務展望。在海底，我們現在看到 2025 年的情況如下。從 2023 年到 2025 年，入站訂單總額約為 250 億美元。這將包括 2025 年約 16.5 億美元的海底服務入站訂單、約 80 億美元的收入和約 18% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。此外，我們預計到 2025 年將公司 EBITDA 總額的 50% 轉化為自由現金流。與我們 2025 年展望和之前提供的標準化框架相關的所有其他指導項目保持不變。

When comparing this revised Subsea outlook to our 2022 adjusted results, this would be a 650 basis point expansion in Subsea EBITDA margin in just 3 years and result in Subsea EBITDA of approximately $1.4 billion. Our current view of financial performance in 2025 also reflects a project mix that will continue to evolve over the next few years.

將修訂後的海底業務展望與我們 2022 年調整後的結果進行比較時，海底業務的 EBITDA 利潤率將在短短 3 年內增長 650 個基點，導致海底業務的 EBITDA 約為 14 億美元。我們目前對 2025 年財務業績的看法也反映了未來幾年將繼續發展的項目組合。

In our earnings call presentation, we have included a chart that outlines the revenue scheduled from our current backlog as a percentage of total expected revenue in both 2023 and 2025. For 2023, we anticipate 64% of revenue will come from our existing backlog. For 2025, that number is closer to 11%. I would also point out that much of this backlog was inbound before the inflection of the current market environment.

在我們的財報電話會議演示中，我們提供了一張圖表，其中概述了我們當前積壓訂單的預定收入佔 2023 年和 2025 年預期總收入的百分比。到 2023 年，我們預計 64% 的收入將來自我們現有的積壓訂單。到 2025 年，這個數字接近 11%。我還要指出，在當前市場環境發生變化之前，大部分積壓訂單都是入境的。

The key takeaway messages here is that our EBITDA margin in any one year reflects the layering of projects and services that are inbound over time. As implied by the chart, the 18% EBITDA margin we anticipate for 2025 will still be negatively impacted by legacy project backlog. And even more importantly, we are not suggesting that 18% is the highest margin we can achieve in Subsea. We remain confident that there is upside to this number beyond 2025.

這裡的關鍵信息是，我們任何一年的 EBITDA 利潤率都反映了隨著時間的推移項目和服務的分層。如圖表所示，我們預計 2025 年 18% 的 EBITDA 利潤率仍將受到遺留項目積壓的負面影響。更重要的是，我們並不是說 18% 是我們在海底可以實現的最高利潤率。我們仍然相信這個數字在 2025 年之後還有上升空間。

In closing, I will share with you my key takeaways. First, we delivered on our most important financial commitments for the year, notably the profitability targets for Subsea and Surface Technologies as well as total company free cash flow. Second, we have initiated guidance for 2023 that at the midpoint of the range demonstrates a higher level of margin expansion and cash flow conversion than in prior year.

最後，我將與您分享我的主要收穫。首先，我們兌現了今年最重要的財務承諾，特別是 Subsea 和 Surface Technologies 的盈利目標以及公司自由現金流總額。其次，我們已經啟動了 2023 年的指導方針，在該範圍的中點顯示比上一年更高的利潤率擴張和現金流轉換水平。

Third, we have accelerated our plans to distribute cash to shareholders. We repurchased $100 million of our shares in 2022, and we intend to continue the buyback program in 2023. We have also reaffirmed our intention to initiate a dividend in the second half of this year.

第三，我們加快了向股東分配現金的計劃。我們在 2022 年回購了 1 億美元的股票，我們打算在 2023 年繼續回購計劃。我們還重申了我們打算在今年下半年開始派發股息。

And finally, we have updated our intermediate term outlook for 2025 to reflect the impact of the current multiyear cycle that is more robust than we had envisioned back in 2021, our leverage to the key drivers of this cycle, offshore and the Middle East markets and our ability to further improve the economic returns of our company.

最後，我們更新了 2025 年的中期展望，以反映當前多年周期的影響比我們在 2021 年時預想的更為強勁，我們對這一周期的主要驅動因素、離岸和中東市場的影響以及我們進一步提高公司經濟效益的能力。

Operator, you may now open the line for questions.

接線員，您現在可以打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) David Anderson with Barclays.

（操作員說明）大衛安德森與巴克萊銀行。

It must be nice to have 3 years of visibility in your back pocket now. A big change from the fall of '21 when we put out those interim guides. You talked about it a little bit. I was wondering if you could kind of really dig in a little bit more into kind of what drove the expansion of the Subsea margin guide in '25? Is this primarily kind of a function of the higher throughput and the leverage of your modular configured-to-order model? You think you're seeing about 70% of iEPCI awards today are in there, I'm assuming that's all coming in there.

現在在你的後兜里有 3 年的知名度一定很不錯。與我們發布這些臨時指南的 21 年秋季相比發生了巨大變化。你談到了一點點。我想知道您是否可以真正深入了解是什麼推動了 25 年 Subsea 保證金指南的擴展？這主要是因為更高的吞吐量和您的模塊化按訂單配置模型的槓桿作用嗎？你認為你今天看到大約 70% 的 iEPCI 獎項都在那裡，我假設所有這些都在那裡。

And then secondarily, I think we just touched on it about the backlog that I think you said 11% of backlog in '25 -- or 11% of revenue in '25 is from backlog today. So is this factoring in pricing on these projects? Or maybe can you just help me understand kind of some of the components behind that, please?

其次，我想我們剛剛談到了積壓，我想你說 25 年 11% 的積壓 - 或者 25 年 11% 的收入來自今天的積壓。那麼，這是對這些項目定價的考慮因素嗎？或者，也許你能幫我理解它背後的一些組成部分嗎？

Sure, Dave. If we reflect back on how we got here, maybe to start, 6 years ago, we embarked on a journey to make offshore energy development the investment of choice for our clients while fundamentally changing our operating model. We are now experiencing the results of that journey, and that's a combination of a few things. First and foremost is the market adoption of Subsea 2.0. We had previously said that we expected Subsea 2.0 to be approximately 50% of our inbound in 2022 and 2023, and we now see that expanding even further in the coming years.

當然，戴夫。如果我們回顧一下我們是如何走到這一步的，或許是從 6 年前開始，我們踏上了一段旅程，讓海上能源開發成為我們客戶的投資選擇，同時從根本上改變我們的運營模式。我們現在正在體驗那次旅程的結果，這是幾件事的結合。首先也是最重要的是 Subsea 2.0 的市場採用。我們之前曾說過，我們預計 Subsea 2.0 將在 2022 年和 2023 年約占我們入境的 50%，現在我們看到這一比例在未來幾年會進一步擴大。

But keep in mind, not all of that inbound is flowing through the plant today. So if we look at our Subsea 2.0 deliveries, it's a bit less than 25% of what we're actually delivering today which will obviously go towards 50% in the coming years, which gives us great confidence as a result of our ability to be able to shift to the modular build, as you referred to or what we refer to, as the configure-to-order operating model. This model continues to demonstrate significant benefits to our operating efficiency and to our profitability.

但請記住，並非所有入站流量今天都流經該工廠。因此，如果我們看看我們的 Subsea 2.0 交付量，它略低於我們今天實際交付量的 25%，但在未來幾年顯然會達到 50%，這給了我們很大的信心，因為我們有能力成為能夠轉變為模塊化構建，正如您所指或我們所指的，即按訂單配置運營模式。這種模式繼續證明對我們的運營效率和盈利能力有顯著好處。

And then in addition, is the adoption of iEPCI, as you pointed out, which by the way, is not -- it many times, also include Subsea 2.0. The iEPCI awards continue to increase. We stated that this will be the record year for iEPCI. And we also, when I look at the FEED work, the front-end engineering and design work that we're doing, which sets up the future years, the percent of FEED work that we're doing on iEPCI, which we call iFEED, is at an all-time high. Those iFEED projects lead to a direct award to our company for iEPCI. That is a proprietary opportunity set that is not available to the rest of the market. And I emphasize that that's at the highest level that it's ever been.

然後此外，正如您所指出的，iEPCI 的採用，順便說一下，它很多時候還包括 Subsea 2.0。 iEPCI獎項不斷增加。我們表示，這將是 iEPCI 創紀錄的一年。而且，當我查看 FEED 工作時，我們正在做的前端工程和設計工作設定了未來幾年，我們在 iEPCI 上所做的 FEED 工作的百分比，我們稱之為 iFEED , 創歷史新高。這些 iFEED 項目導致我們公司直接獲得 iEPCI 獎勵。這是其他市場無法獲得的專有機會集。我強調這是有史以來的最高水平。

So it's a combination of these things, and clearly, the market focus on energy security, that gives us great confidence. But when we look at the 2025 guidance that we just updated today, a material increase from where we are currently of an additional 650 basis points of Subsea margin, it's these factors that we've been working on for half a decade that we're now seeing the benefits from that create sustainable change, and we are not beholding to further pricing improvement to achieve these -- the updated 2025 guidance.

所以這是這些事情的結合，很明顯，市場對能源安全的關注給了我們很大的信心。但是，當我們查看今天剛剛更新的 2025 年指南時，與我們目前的水平相比，海底利潤率又增加了 650 個基點，這正是我們已經研究了五年的這些因素現在看到創造可持續變化的好處，我們不指望進一步提高定價來實現這些——更新的 2025 年指南。

So I guess when we look at that visibility on the $25 billion in Subsea orders over the next 3 years, I was just trying to think about this as kind of the analogy of the last cycle. Maybe something like 2007 or '08 when you had this much visibility on your business. I guess what I'm curious about is when you think about that order book for the next 3 years, how does that compare to the prior cycle in terms of, say, the customer type, the size of the projects, you just talked about this as iFEED. This didn't exist in 2007, '08. And obviously, there's been a huge industry kind of structure has really changed with Aker coming out of the market and whatnot. Can you just talk about kind of how different that is, what it looks like in the next 3 years?

因此，我想當我們審視未來 3 年 250 億美元海底訂單的可見性時，我只是想將其視為上一個週期的類比。也許是在 2007 年或 08 年，那時您的業務具有如此高的知名度。我想我很好奇的是，當你考慮未來 3 年的訂單簿時，它與之前的周期相比如何，比如客戶類型、項目規模，你剛才談到這是 iFEED。這在 2007 年，'08 年不存在。顯然，隨著 Aker 退出市場等等，一個巨大的行業結構發生了真正的變化。你能談談未來 3 年有什麼不同嗎？

Dave, we talk about this all the time. As a matter of fact, I was talking to a gentleman, who runs our research, engineering, manufacturing and supply chain organization, just this morning about this. The fundamental change -- and by the way, we've never experienced this before when you point to the prior cycles, both in terms of the volume, the $25 billion, but the visibility, which is to your question.

戴夫，我們一直在談論這個。事實上，就在今天早上，我正在與一位管理我們的研究、工程、製造和供應鏈組織的先生交談。根本性的變化——順便說一下，當你指出之前的周期時，我們從未經歷過這種情況，無論是在數量上，250 億美元，還是在你的問題的可見性方面。

We have always had a very robust planning cycle, as you would expect us to, to ensure that the projects that we take on are the right projects, we have the right resources so that we can continue to deliver to our clients projects on time and on budget. And I'll point out, even with this significant growth that we've experienced, we've not seen a deterioration in our on-time delivery performance. And that's what makes our customers comfortable to continue to direct award us even more work.

我們一直有一個非常強大的計劃週期，正如您所期望的那樣，以確保我們承擔的項目是正確的項目，我們擁有正確的資源，以便我們能夠繼續按時交付給我們的客戶項目，在預算上。我要指出的是，即使我們經歷瞭如此顯著的增長，我們的準時交付績效也沒有下降。這就是讓我們的客戶放心繼續直接獎勵我們更多工作的原因。

But we've taken that planning horizon, which was always 24 months, it's actually 48 months now, Dave. And what's really fundamentally changed, and I've never seen this in my career, our customers are booking not just the current greenfield project, but the future greenfield project. They want our capacity. They want our 2.0, they want our iEPCI and they trust us to deliver. And in this period of not only focusing on energy security, but also supply and capacity security, they're now booking well in advance greenfield projects, and that visibility we have not had previously.

但是我們已經採用了那個計劃範圍，它總是 24 個月，現在實際上是 48 個月，Dave。真正發生了根本性的變化，我在我的職業生涯中從未見過這種情況，我們的客戶不僅預訂了當前的綠地項目，還預訂了未來的綠地項目。他們想要我們的能力。他們想要我們的 2.0，他們想要我們的 iEPCI，他們相信我們能夠交付。在這個不僅關注能源安全，而且關注供應和產能安全的時期，他們現在提前預訂綠地項目，這是我們以前沒有的知名度。

Are these smaller companies then when you think about last cycle? We think about the last cycle is all dominated by the IOCs. Is that starting to shift? Are you seeing -- I think you said before that you had something like 40 different customers in the first half of last year's orders? Are you continuing to see that kind of broadening of that customer base? Sorry for squeezing in 1 more question there.

當您考慮上一個週期時，這些是較小的公司嗎？我們認為上一個週期完全由 IOC 主導。那開始轉變了嗎？你看到了嗎——我想你之前說過，在去年上半年的訂單中，你有大約 40 個不同的客戶？您是否繼續看到這種客戶群的擴大？很抱歉在那裡再提 1 個問題。

Sorry, and I'll be brief. Indeed, we've actually seen that unique customer set now to expand to over 50, but the discussion I was having earlier actually applies both to some of the new clients, but also some of the most established largest clients, who are also focused on ensuring that they have the capacity -- secure our capacity for their future projects.

抱歉，我會很簡短。事實上，我們實際上已經看到獨特的客戶群現在已擴展到 50 多個，但我之前進行的討論實際上既適用於一些新客戶，也適用於一些最成熟的最大客戶，他們也專注於確保他們有能力——確保我們有能力進行他們未來的項目。

Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

Doug, I wanted to maybe follow up on David's line of questioning and really just talk about the longer-term outlook in 2025. Doug, as you know, energy investors have been somewhat skeptical of long-term guidance, but I know you guys have been thoughtful over the years. But I was wondering if you could give us a sense of how the sausage was made in terms of the forecast, just to give us confidence that you can achieve what looks to be a pretty significant upgrade in what you told us versus November of 2021?

道格，我可能想跟進大衛的提問線，真的只是談談 2025 年的長期前景。道格，如你所知，能源投資者一直對長期指導持懷疑態度，但我知道你們有多年來深思熟慮。但我想知道您是否可以根據預測讓我們了解香腸是如何製作的，只是為了讓我們相信您可以實現您告訴我們的與 2021 年 11 月相比看起來非常重要的升級？

Sure, Arun. We, I think, have a reputation of being extremely conservative. We also have a reputation of achieving our guidance or exceeding our guidance, particularly when we talk about our view of the market, be it in whatever capacity, our inbound or tree forecast or whatever it may be. And we took the same approach. I mean, the approach clearly hasn't changed.

當然，阿倫。我認為，我們以極其保守著稱。我們也以達到我們的指導或超過我們的指導而著稱，特別是當我們談論我們對市場的看法時，無論是在任何容量、我們的入境或樹木預測或任何可能的情況下。我們採用了相同的方法。我的意思是，方法顯然沒有改變。

What has changed is the visibility to the earlier -- to my response to the earlier question. And it's quite unique, Arun. And so there's not like a big, what we would call, a to-be found when you're doing a forecast, you have named projects, you have your subsea services, you have your call-offs from your alliance partners that you know they're going to do a certain amount of field rejuvenation, which, by the way, is increasing significantly and/or brownfield tiebacks. And then you have a kind of a to-be-found bucket, if you will.

發生變化的是對較早時間的可見性——我對較早時間問題的回答。這很獨特，Arun。因此，當你進行預測時，沒有像我們所說的那樣大的東西，你已經命名了項目，你有你的海底服務，你有你知道的聯盟夥伴的取消他們將進行一定程度的田地複興，順便說一句，這正在顯著增加和/或棕地回購。如果你願意的話，你就有了一個待發現的桶。

We're not relying on that when we're giving this guidance. This is projects that you see on the Subsea opportunity list or kind of more importantly, for our company, projects you do not see on the Subsea opportunity list, which is a set of proprietary projects where we're doing those integrated FEED studies, which will result in a direct award to our company when they achieve project FID.

當我們提供此指導時，我們並不依賴於此。這是您在海底機會清單上看到的項目，或者更重要的是，對於我們公司來說，您在海底機會清單上看不到的項目，這是一組專有項目，我們正在這些項目中進行綜合 FEED 研究，當他們實現項目 FID 時，將直接授予我們公司。

That's super helpful. My follow-up is just on the cash conversion update where you expect it to increase to, call it, 50%. I was just wondering if you could maybe talk about what is driving that? And just future plans for the free cash flow, I mean you've guided or provided an outlook for $1.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2025. That would push you towards about $700 million of free cash flow. You guys will have, call it, a net debt -- no net debt at the end of this year. So I wanted to get your thoughts on just the future uses of that free cash flow and the drivers of that stronger free cash flow conversion rate.

這非常有幫助。我的後續行動只是關於現金轉換更新，你預計它會增加到，稱之為 50%。我只是想知道你是否可以談談是什麼驅動了它？只是自由現金流的未來計劃，我的意思是你已經指導或提供了 2025 年 14 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 的前景。這將推動你實現約 7 億美元的自由現金流。你們將有，稱之為淨債務——到今年年底沒有淨債務。因此，我想了解您對自由現金流的未來用途以及更高自由現金流轉換率的驅動因素的看法。

Thanks for the question. And maybe let's start with it in a very simple way for 2025. We are clearly going to grow profitability and EBITDA at a higher pace than some of the other factors that goes into the free cash flow statement. And what factors do I talk about? I talk about things like corporate expense, interest expense and even CapEx. All those items are not going to grow at the same pace as our earnings growth. And if you combine that with, call it, a neutral type of working capital outlook in that number, that's kind of how you get to 50% roughly for 2025.

謝謝你的問題。也許讓我們以一種非常簡單的方式從 2025 年開始。與自由現金流量表中的其他一些因素相比，我們顯然將以更快的速度增長盈利能力和 EBITDA。我談論的是什麼因素？我談論諸如公司費用、利息費用甚至資本支出之類的事情。所有這些項目都不會以與我們的收入增長相同的速度增長。如果將其與該數字中的中性營運資本前景相結合，這就是 2025 年大致達到 50% 的方式。

Then if you look ahead at where we are in terms of -- we obviously like our position a lot, as you've heard from the first couple of comments here in the call. But we're, first and foremost, happy with what we have achieved in the past year. We have largely achieved what we set out at Analyst Day to be our target capital structure, which we said was $800 million of cash and $1.3 billion of debt. We reduced debt by over $600 million here in the past year. And this really position us for the shareholder distribution acceleration that really we could accomplish through the share buyback program in July.

然後，如果你展望一下我們的現狀——我們顯然非常喜歡我們的立場，正如你從電話會議的前幾條評論中聽到的那樣。但我們首先對過去一年取得的成就感到滿意。我們基本上已經實現了我們在分析師日設定的目標資本結構，我們說這是 8 億美元的現金和 13 億美元的債務。過去一年，我們在這裡減少了超過 6 億美元的債務。這確實使我們能夠通過 7 月份的股票回購計劃實現股東分配加速。

And as Doug already said, we are committed for the dividend in the second half. Now when you look at our cash position, it's obviously going to continue to be a favorable outlook in the light of this -- in this forecast, but we will also remain committed to maintaining, first of all, a strong balance sheet but at the same time delivering strong shareholder contribution. That's going to continue to be our focus. And in the short term, we would say that we're retaining the flexibility here with our share buyback program, where we really think we have the best opportunity to return value to our shareholders.

正如道格已經說過的那樣，我們致力於下半年的股息。現在，當您查看我們的現金狀況時，很明顯，鑑於此 - 在本次預測中，前景顯然會繼續保持良好，但我們也將繼續致力於維持強勁的資產負債表，但在同時提供強大的股東貢獻。這將繼續成為我們的重點。在短期內，我們會說我們在股票回購計劃中保留了靈活性，我們真的認為我們有最好的機會向股東回報價值。

Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

花旗集團的斯科特格魯伯。

So I wanted to stay on the 2025 guidance. And if I just look at what that implies, the return on capital looks to be in the mid-teens, which is certainly solid. But just given the evolution of the industry, the appetite for your integrated model, you should be less of a price taker going forward. I'm just curious, as you step back, and think about the next few years, I'm curious how you think about what a normal return on your portfolio should be just kind of given the evolution of the business?

所以我想留在 2025 年的指導方針上。如果我只看這意味著什麼，資本回報率看起來在十幾歲左右，這當然是可靠的。但考慮到行業的發展，以及對集成模型的需求，未來你應該不再是價格接受者。我只是很好奇，當你退後一步，想想未來幾年，我很好奇你如何看待你的投資組合的正常回報應該是多少？考慮到業務的發展？

It's a great question, Scott, and welcome to the call. Indeed, mid-teens is in line with what we are looking at, a substantial improvement from where we are today. And again, I really want to emphasize the actions that we're taking in this long journey that we embarked on 6 years ago was to improve our customers' offshore subsea project returns, while at the same time creating a unique and different operating model for our company that would drive a much improved through-cycle return as well, not just a peak cycle return.

斯科特，這是一個很好的問題，歡迎致電。事實上，十幾歲的人與我們所看到的一致，比我們今天的情況有了實質性的改善。再一次，我真的想強調我們在 6 年前開始的漫長旅程中採取的行動是為了提高我們客戶的海上海底項目回報，同時為我們公司也將推動整個週期回報的改善，而不僅僅是高峰週期回報。

And so what are some of the things that we're doing. We talked about Subsea 2.0 and integrated projects. But if you also look at the level of capital expenditures that we're deploying today in our company are far less than what we would have done on a historical average. That's because of the additional efficiency of Subsea 2.0 as it flows through our plans.

那麼我們正在做的一些事情是什麼。我們談到了 Subsea 2.0 和綜合項目。但如果你也看看我們今天在公司部署的資本支出水平，就遠遠低於我們按歷史平均水平所做的水平。這是因為 Subsea 2.0 在我們的計劃中流動時效率更高。

But it's also, we're really good at partnering. We work well with others. That's in the DNA of us as individuals as well as us as a company, be it our clients, be it our suppliers or even being people at time we might compete against and at other times cooperate with. And that's the development of our ecosystem for our fleet.

但它也是，我們真的很擅長合作。我們與他人合作良好。這是我們個人和公司的 DNA，無論是我們的客戶，還是我們的供應商，甚至是我們有時可能與之競爭而有時與之合作的人。這就是我們車隊生態系統的發展。

So it allows us to be able to have access to world-class vessels, many of which are within our own fleet, but those also that are outside of our fleet and have unique capabilities and enhance the overall capabilities of our combined fleet by working with companies like Allseas and Saipem, and we couldn't be more proud of that. We see ourselves as we continue to have the market success. We are willing and ready to partner with others as well as we continue to grow this market together.

因此，它使我們能夠使用世界一流的船隻，其中許多在我們自己的船隊內，但也有在我們船隊之外並具有獨特能力的船隻，並通過與像 Allseas 和 Saipem 這樣的公司，我們為此感到無比自豪。隨著我們繼續取得市場成功，我們看到了自己。我們願意並準備好與他人合作，並繼續共同發展這個市場。

So being able to grow it with a much different mentality, which is one around really focusing on the returns and really focusing on sustainable returns through cycle by being disciplined in the investments that we make create the opportunities that Alf just talked about, which is greater shareholder distributions.

因此，能夠以一種截然不同的心態來發展它，這是一種真正關注回報並真正關注可持續回報的方式，通過對我們所做的投資進行紀律來創造阿爾夫剛才談到的機會，這是更大的股東分配。

Got it. Would it be fair to say you're not satisfied with a mid-teens return? Is that fair?

知道了。說你對十幾歲的回報不滿意是公平的嗎？這公平嗎？

I would just throw that under the same bucket as my closing remarks in my script, which was along the line of, this is only a midpoint on our journey. We have a much more ambitious journey ahead.

我會把它和我在劇本中的結束語放在同一個桶下，這是沿著這條線，這只是我們旅程的中點。我們前方的旅程更加雄心勃勃。

Kurt Hallead with Benchmark.

Benchmark 的庫爾特·哈利德 (Kurt Hallead)。

Doug, how are you?

道格，你好嗎？

Great, Kurt. Good to hear you voice.

太好了，庫爾特。很高興聽到你的聲音。

Yes. Good to be on again. So Doug, you really raised the bar again putting out data points for 2025. Before you know, some people are going to be asking you for your views on 2030. So just get ready for that, okay? So first and foremost, I'm kind of curious here when you kind of talk through what kind of drives or is driving your customer decision-making process, you kind of referenced your delivery and performance as a key element. You mentioned energy security.

是的。很高興再次出現。所以道格，你真的再次提高了標準，提出了 2025 年的數據點。在你知道之前，有些人會問你對 2030 年的看法。所以做好準備，好嗎？所以首先，我很好奇，當你談論什麼樣的驅動力或正在推動你的客戶決策過程時，你將你的交付和績效作為一個關鍵因素。你提到了能源安全。

But when you look at those factors and maybe even drive in the cost element, how have those conversations with the customer evolved? And how do you -- which one of those three -- how would you rank -- how your customers are valuing those 3 components, right, between delivery, energy security and kind of continuing to take down the cost of developing these offshore fields? And how has that changed, I think, over the last couple of years?

但是，當您查看這些因素甚至考慮成本因素時，與客戶的對話是如何演變的？你如何——這三個中的哪一個——你如何排名——你的客戶如何評價這三個組成部分，正確的，在交付、能源安全和繼續降低開發這些海上油田的成本之間？我認為，在過去幾年中，這種情況發生了怎樣的變化？

I would say the first 2 are obviously dependent upon each other. But if I had to put them in an order, I would say energy security and then supplier security or capacity supply -- securing capacity. They're somewhat interchangeable. In some conversations, it actually starts with securing our capacity, but it's obviously fundamentally underscored by energy security.

我會說前兩個顯然是相互依賴的。但如果我必須對它們進行排序，我會說能源安全，然後是供應商安全或產能供應——確保產能。它們在某種程度上可以互換。在一些對話中，它實際上是從確保我們的能力開始的，但顯然從根本上強調了能源安全。

And then it really comes down to certainty and execution and confidence because our customers are putting great trust in our company, a significant amount of their capital spend, with arguably some of the most complex and complicated work that they do to ensure that the world has a reliable and affordable energy supply. So we start by just being really humbled by that. And it's phenomenal to be in this position.

然後它真的歸結為確定性、執行力和信心，因為我們的客戶對我們公司非常信任，他們投入了大量的資本，可以說他們所做的一些最複雜和最複雜的工作是為了確保世界擁有可靠且負擔得起的能源供應。因此，我們首先對此感到非常謙卑。擔任這個職位真是太棒了。

And then when you go into a direct award discussion, which is not the normal mode of operation for many of our customers, and in some cases, we've been in that situation for now almost approaching 3 decades with individual companies. It's just an honor and we remain humble. Our success is our client success. Our success is the project's success and that's what we stay focused on.

然後當你進入直接的獎勵討論時，這不是我們許多客戶的正常運作模式，在某些情況下，我們與個別公司的這種情況已經接近 3 年了。這只是一種榮譽，我們保持謙虛。我們的成功就是客戶的成功。我們的成功就是項目的成功，這是我們一直關注的重點。

And I think as long as we do that and we can continue to deliver simplification, standardization and industrialization around what we do, you have to be the leading technology provider. You have to have the proven track record in terms of delivery, and you have to have trust built upon deep intimate relationships. And that's what we do, and it's unique to our company, and I couldn't be more proud to be part of it.

而且我認為，只要我們這樣做，並且我們可以繼續圍繞我們所做的事情提供簡化、標準化和工業化，您就必須成為領先的技術提供商。您必須在交付方面擁有可靠的記錄，並且必須建立在深厚的親密關係之上的信任。這就是我們所做的，這對我們公司來說是獨一無二的，我為能成為其中的一員而感到無比自豪。

Okay. Great. Appreciate that color. So obviously, a lot of attention well spent on the subsea part of the business. So I'm kind of curious on the surface, right? You mentioned international to be about 50% or was 50% of your revenue in 2022. And you're going to see the bulk of your growth coming from Middle East going forward. So maybe you extrapolate that. These are long-term projects with all these customers, who have had long-term investment horizons. Where do you think the international mix could be come 2025?

好的。偉大的。欣賞那種顏色。很明顯，很多注意力都花在了業務的海底部分上。所以我表面上有點好奇，對吧？您提到 2022 年國際業務約佔您收入的 50% 或 50%。您將看到未來的大部分增長來自中東。所以也許你可以推斷出這一點。這些都是與所有這些具有長期投資視野的客戶的長期項目。您認為 2025 年國際組合會在哪裡出現？

Kurt, are you asking the international mix as a portion of the total Surface Technologies?

庫爾特，你問的是國際組合作為總表面技術的一部分嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Okay. Look, it's going to grow, and it could grow materially. We don't see the North America market growing much over that period, certainly not in the short term. It's hard to have a long-term view of the North America market. But clearly, in the short term, our view is with the consensus, which is rig activity is likely to decline, completions activity maybe grow but grow modestly. So we're not expecting much growth.

好的。看，它會增長，而且可能會實質性增長。我們認為北美市場在此期間不會有太大增長，短期內肯定不會。很難對北美市場有一個長遠的看法。但顯然，在短期內，我們的觀點與共識一致，即鑽機活動可能會下降，完井活動可能會增長，但增長幅度不大。所以我們預計不會有太大的增長。

As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, although we expect surface to grow in line with subsea in terms of revenue growth year-over-year, all of that growth will come from the international part of the business, not from the North America land part of the business for our Surface Technologies group.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，儘管我們預計地面收入同比增長與海底收入增長保持一致，但所有這些增長都將來自業務的國際部分，而不是北美陸地部分我們 Surface Technologies 集團的業務。

Kurt, to maybe personalize it a little bit and demonstrate where our focus is, I spent last week in the Middle East. I had the pleasure meeting with our key customer, Aramco, and spending time in the Kingdom and observing the investment and the results of the investment that we've made in increasing our manufacturing capabilities and local content in country. This is the path forward. We fully support that, and we're very, very excited about the opportunities for our business in the Middle East.

庫爾特，也許為了讓它更個性化一點並展示我們的重點在哪裡，我上週在中東度過了。我很高興與我們的主要客戶阿美公司會面，並在沙特阿拉伯度過了一段時間，並觀察了我們在提高我們在該國的製造能力和當地含量方面所做的投資和投資結果。這是前進的道路。我們完全支持這一點，我們對我們在中東的業務機會感到非常、非常興奮。

I appreciate that color. Maybe if I could sneak in one more on the shareholder return. How do you guys think about the split between, say, dividends and share repurchase as you're kind of setting that strategy for the second half of this year?

我很欣賞那種顏色。也許如果我能在股東回報上再偷偷摸摸的話。你們如何看待分紅和股票回購之間的分歧，因為你們正在為今年下半年制定該戰略？

No. Kind of maybe as I alluded to, really near term, we are seeing still the opportunity. As we said in our prepared remarks, we think our shares are still in a valuable capital allocation to pursue. So definitely, the share buyback program is giving us the most near-term flexibility to really execute on. And at the same time, we remain committed to the second half dividend as we talked about, but I don't see us accelerating that, but rather staying with the current setup with the share buyback program.

不，也許就像我提到的那樣，真的在短期內，我們仍然看到機會。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們認為我們的股票仍處於有價值的資本配置中。所以可以肯定的是，股票回購計劃為我們提供了真正執行的最近期的靈活性。與此同時，我們仍然致力於我們所說的下半年股息，但我認為我們不會加速，而是保持當前的股票回購計劃設置。

Okay. I think my question was like, are you going to think 50% of your free cash of that where you're going to allocate to the share return is going to go to dividend, the other 50% to share repo? I was just kind of curious about how you're thinking about the mix.

好的。我想我的問題是，你是否認為你要分配給股票回報的自由現金的 50% 將用於股息，另外 50% 用於股票回購？我只是有點好奇你是如何考慮混音的。

I think we don't have a specific decision for the year on that yet. But clearly, this is a priority for us to get this right, and we are continuing to manage the balancing between maintaining our strong balance sheet, but yet being very focused on generating or driving shareholder returns.

我認為我們還沒有為此做出今年的具體決定。但顯然，這是我們實現這一目標的首要任務，我們將繼續在維持強勁的資產負債表與非常專注於產生或推動股東回報之間取得平衡。

(Operator Instructions) Marc Bianchi with Cowen.

（操作員說明）Marc Bianchi 和 Cowen。

I guess one thing that some people have asked is around this order outlook that you have. Certainly, you have a lot of visibility into what customers are asking you for. But are there other bottlenecks in the industry that are worth monitoring, for instance, maybe topside assets availability on things like that, that would need to happen in coincidence with what you're providing?

我想有些人問的一件事是圍繞您的訂單前景。當然，您對客戶的要求有很多了解。但是，該行業中是否還有其他值得監控的瓶頸，例如，可能需要與您提供的產品同時發生的事情上的上層資產可用性？

Marc, thanks for the question. Absolutely, it's something we focus on constantly. As I mentioned, I was in a conversation with our manufacturing head this morning. Look, it would be naive to say that there aren't supply chain risk, there aren't execution risks. But this is what we do. We do it really well, but we do it differently than we have done it historically.

馬克，謝謝你的提問。當然，這是我們一直關注的事情。正如我提到的，今天早上我正在與我們的製造主管交談。看，如果說沒有供應鏈風險，沒有執行風險，那就太天真了。但這就是我們所做的。我們做得很好，但我們的做法與以往不同。

And in the past, when you saw the industry, and I'm going to speak broadly of the industry, and I'm going to say we were absolutely part of that. When you saw projects being delivered 12 months late, projects being delivered 100% over the budgetary cost, it was a result of the bespoke manufacturing mode that we were in. We are the only company that 7 years ago started developing a new product architecture that we now call Subsea 2.0 and is now, as I said, up to 50% of our orders.

過去，當你看到這個行業時，我會廣泛地談論這個行業，我會說我們絕對是其中的一部分。當您看到項目交付延遲 12 個月時，項目交付超出預算成本 100%，這是我們所處的定制製造模式的結果。我們是唯一一家 7 年前開始開發新產品架構的公司我們現在稱之為 Subsea 2.0，正如我所說，現在我們訂單的 50%。

This allows us to go to this configure-to-order model. It also allows us to be much more synchronized with our supply chain. So much like our customers that I talked about earlier, we treat our suppliers the exact same way. They treat us as partners, in many cases direct award partners, in many cases exclusive partners. We do the same with our supply chain. So we have that same intimacy with the supply chain. And with the configure to order, they don't have to wait on an engineering drawing. In the past, every single part and if you're not -- if you don't have Subsea 2.0, it's still that way today. Every single part comes with a set of engineering drawings.

這使我們能夠進入這種按訂單配置模型。它還使我們能夠與我們的供應鏈更加同步。就像我之前談到的我們的客戶一樣，我們以完全相同的方式對待我們的供應商。他們將我們視為合作夥伴，在很多情況下是直接獎勵合作夥伴，在許多情況下是獨家合作夥伴。我們對我們的供應鏈也這樣做。因此，我們與供應鏈有著同樣的親密關係。通過按訂單配置，他們不必等待工程圖。過去，每一個部分，如果你沒有——如果你沒有 Subsea 2.0，今天仍然如此。每個零件都附有一套工程圖紙。

Can you just imagine the disruption that, that causes not only for your own manufacturing but for the supply of parts and machine -- part of your raw materials and/or rough machine parts to your manufacturing. So it's a trickle-down effect. It works extremely well where we now have suppliers who know they can trust us. They know we're the market leader. They know we have the capacity.

您能想像一下，這不僅會對您自己的製造造成破壞，還會對零件和機器的供應造成破壞——您的部分原材料和/或粗加工機械零件對您的製造造成的影響。所以這是一個涓滴效應。它在我們現在有知道他們可以信任我們的供應商的地方非常有效。他們知道我們是市場領導者。他們知道我們有能力。

We have the forward planning now. As I said, we extended it from 24 months to 48 months with orders that we can actually give them that visibility, and they don't have to wait on an engineering drawing. In some cases, they on their own are now machining and stocking parts on our behalf because it's beneficial to them from a flow and a cadence, and it's obviously hugely beneficial to us from a working capital and from an accelerated on-time delivery.

我們現在有前瞻性計劃。正如我所說，我們將它從 24 個月延長到 48 個月，我們實際上可以給他們提供可見性的訂單，而且他們不必等待工程圖。在某些情況下，他們現在自己代表我們加工和儲存零件，因為這從流程和節奏上對他們有利，而且從營運資金和加快準時交貨方面顯然對我們非常有利。

So this configure-to-order model has fundamentally changed our company. We couldn't have done it without the foresight and the tenacity to develop the 2.0 product architecture, but we're just beginning to see to really reap the benefits of it today. As I said, the majority of our tree deliveries are not Subsea 2.0 flowing through the plant today, but that will ramp up over the coming years.

所以這種按訂單配置的模式從根本上改變了我們公司。如果沒有開發 2.0 產品架構的遠見和毅力，我們不可能做到這一點，但我們今天才剛剛開始看到真正收穫它的好處。正如我所說，我們交付的大部分樹木不是今天流經工廠的 Subsea 2.0，但在未來幾年會增加。

Okay. Great. I guess the second one I had is more for Alf but just on first quarter, if you could help us a little bit with free cash. And then as we think about the progression of results for the balance of the year, just so that maybe we don't get over our skis on the rate of improvement in second quarter. It'd be great to just hear whatever steer you're able to share about how things play out beyond first quarter?

好的。偉大的。我想我的第二個是給 Alf 的，但只是在第一季度，如果你能用免費現金幫助我們一點。然後當我們考慮今年剩餘時間的結果進展時，也許我們不會在第二季度的改善率上過時。很高興聽到您能夠分享關於第一季度之後事情如何發展的任何指導？

Sure. Absolutely, we'll do so. So if you just start with the fourth quarter, we obviously had a very strong free cash flow generation in the fourth quarter, as we had advertised and as we had planned. But still over $0.5 billion is a big cash flow quarter for us. Now having said that, as you may know, and if you have followed us, we're going to follow a very similar pattern to our cash flow generation, as we did in both 2021 and 2022, but in particularly, in '22 where we start the year with the first quarter of being a very weak start to the free cash flow generation. And just to pencil in something you can probably look at last year's results and say that it's going to be in that neighborhood probably.

當然。當然，我們會這樣做。因此，如果你只是從第四季度開始，我們顯然在第四季度產生了非常強勁的自由現金流，正如我們所宣傳和計劃的那樣。但仍然超過 5 億美元對我們來說是一個很大的現金流量季度。話雖如此，你可能知道，如果你關注我們，我們將遵循非常相似的現金流生成模式，就像我們在 2021 年和 2022 年所做的那樣，但特別是在 22 年我們從第一季度開始，這是自由現金流產生的一個非常疲軟的開端。只是用鉛筆寫下你可能會看到去年的結果並說它可能會在那個街區的東西。

So that's just the normal seasonal profile that we have, and it's largely tied into the achievement of milestones and customer billings and collections associated with our Subsea business, and some of the seasonality that we mentioned around the Subsea business, which then brings me to maybe the revenue and the EBITDA evolution for the quarters.

所以這只是我們擁有的正常季節性概況，它在很大程度上與我們海底業務相關的里程碑和客戶賬單和收款的實現以及我們在海底業務中提到的一些季節性有關，這讓我可能季度的收入和 EBITDA 演變。

Subsea very much will be, as we said, and in line with fourth quarter type of quarter because we are in a seasonal low season right now as we sit here today. While we will definitely see a margin pickup and a revenue pickup in the second quarter, and the third quarter should also be very strong, a little bit of a tail off in the fourth quarter, but maybe not going all the way back to first quarter levels, but -- so that's really what I see in the Subsea.

正如我們所說，海底非常符合第四季度的類型，因為我們今天坐在這裡時正處於季節性淡季。雖然我們肯定會在第二季度看到利潤率和收入回升，第三季度也應該非常強勁，第四季度會有所下降，但可能不會一路回到第一季度水平，但是——所以這就是我在海底看到的。

I think surface is a little bit of a different story where we have a little bit of a lower activity this quarter after a very strong revenue quarter here in the fourth quarter. But we will see an uptick both in revenue and EBITDA. The margin contribution will improve as we go forward in the quarters. And as Doug kind of said about it overall, it will be driven by Middle East and our ability to convert more and more orders, both with Aramco in Saudi Arabia and with ADNOC in Abu Dhabi.

我認為表面情況有點不同，在第四季度這裡的收入季度非常強勁之後，本季度我們的活動有所減少。但我們會看到收入和 EBITDA 都有所上升。隨著我們在幾個季度的推進，保證金貢獻將會提高。正如道格總體上所說的那樣，它將受到中東和我們轉換越來越多訂單的能力的推動，包括沙特阿拉伯的阿美公司和阿布扎比的 ADNOC。

But overall, call it, a more gradual approach to how it works for surface rather than to say that there will be a huge step up in Q2 and then keep stepping up from there, but rather a little bit more gradual.

但總的來說，稱它為一種更漸進的方法來處理它如何在表面上工作，而不是說第二季度會有一個巨大的進步，然後從那裡繼續進步，而是更漸進一點。

I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Seinsheimer for closing remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給 Seinsheimer 先生作結束語。

This concludes our fourth quarter conference call. A replay of the call will be available on our website beginning at approximately 8 p.m. Greenwich Mean Time today. If you have any further questions, please feel to contact the Investor Relations team. Thanks for joining us. Jack, you may now end the call.

我們的第四季度電話會議到此結束。從晚上 8 點左右開始，我們的網站上將提供通話重播。今天是格林威治標準時間。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯繫投資者關係團隊。感謝您加入我們。傑克，你現在可以掛斷電話了。

This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。