Primis Financial Corp (FRST) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Ian, and I will be your conference operator today.

謝謝你的支持。我叫伊恩，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time. I would like to welcome everyone to the Primis Financial Corp third quarter earnings call.

此時。我歡迎大家參加 Primis Financial Corp 第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would like to hand the call over to Matt Switzer, Chief Financial Officer. You may begin your conference.

我想將電話轉交給財務長 Matt Switzer。您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning and thank you for joining us for Primis Financial Corps 2024 third quarter, webcast and conference call. Before we begin, please note that many of our comments during this call will be forward-looking statements which involve risk and uncertainty.

早安，感謝您參加 Primis Financial Corps 2024 年第三季網路廣播和電話會議。在開始之前，請注意，我們在本次電話會議中的許多評論都是前瞻性陳述，涉及風險和不確定性。

There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements for discussion of the company's risk factors and other important information regarding our forward-looking statements are part of our recent filings with the securities and exchange commission including our recently filed earnings release, which has also been posted to the investor relations section of our corporate site www.primisbank.com.

有許多因素可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的預期結果或其他期望產生重大差異，以討論公司的風險因素和有關我們前瞻性陳述的其他重要資訊是我們最近向公司提交的文件的一部分證券交易委員會，包括我們最近提交的收益報告，該報告也已發佈到我們公司網站www.primisbank.com 的投資者關係部分。

We undertake no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of un an unanticipated events or changes to future operating results over time.

我們沒有義務更新或修改前瞻性陳述以反映假設的變化、意外事件的發生或未來經營績效隨時間的變化。

In addition, some of the financial measures that we may discuss this morning are non-GAAP financial measures. How a non-GAAP measure relates to the most comparable GAAP measure will be discussed when the non-GAAP measure is used If not readily apparent.

此外，我們今天上午可能討論的一些財務指標是非公認會計準則財務指標。如果不明顯，將在使用非 GAAP 衡量標準時討論非 GAAP 衡量標準與最具可比性 GAAP 衡量標準的關係。

I will now turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer Dennis Zember.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Dennis Zember。

Thank you. Matt. I good morning and thank you to all of you that have joined our call.

謝謝。馬特。早上好，感謝所有加入我們通話的人。

Our results this quarter reflect our correction of the accounting error on the consumer loan portfolio and the impacts for accounting for this portfolio using the multi-unit accounting method.

我們本季的業績反映了我們對消費貸款投資組合會計錯誤的更正以及使用多單位會計方法對該投資組合進行會計處理的影響。

As Matt will discuss in more detail, this method recognizes credit costs up front with a full Cecil reserve and the impacts of the credit support are not recognized until they are received, which is generally in the second half of the average life of the portfolio. Additionally, not all the revenue is recognized, particularly while the loan is in a promotional period, we're in high gear working to catch up on all of our working keys and targeting to be fully current on our SEC filings by the middle of November.

正如馬特將更詳細討論的那樣，這種方法通過全額塞西爾儲備預先確認信貸成本，並且在收到信貸支持之前不會認識到信貸支持的影響，這通常是在投資組合平均壽命的後半段。此外，並非所有收入都得到確認，特別是在貸款處於促銷期時，我們正在緊鑼密鼓地努力趕上所有工作重點，併計劃在 11 月中旬之前全面更新我們向 SEC 提交的文件。

Lastly, as we stated in our [NT filings] we still have an open consultation with the Chief Accountant's office at the SEC regarding the accounting for this portfolio. And while we expect some resolution on that in the near future, we cannot predict the outcome.

最後，正如我們在 [NT 文件] 中所述，我們仍然就該投資組合的會計問題與 SEC 的總會計師辦公室進行公開磋商。雖然我們預計在不久的將來會解決這個問題，但我們無法預測結果。

The noise from this consumer portfolio is unfortunate because these loans really only represent 5% to 6% of total loans. And I say unfortunate because outside of this portfolio and our delayed filings, we've made a lot of progress on our strategy. A few examples are the first, the core bank's contribution to our results continues to improve the core banks cost of deposits. For instance, for the quarter was 2.21% compared to just too compared to 1.97% a year ago.

不幸的是，這種消費者投資組合帶來的噪音是因為這些貸款實際上只佔總貸款的 5% 到 6%。我說不幸的是，除了這個投資組合和我們延遲的申請之外，我們在策略上取得了很大進展。舉幾個例子，第一，核心銀行對我們績效的貢獻是不斷提高核心銀行的存款成本。例如，本季的成長率為 2.21%，而去年同期為 1.97%。

Alongside the recent rate cut, we made the necessary adjustments immediately to keep the margin and non-excuse me, net interest income steady.

除了最近的降息之外，我們還立即進行了必要的調整，以保持利潤率和淨利息收入的穩定。

But coming into the quarter, we have $1.1 billion of deposits that we know are going to adjust further in the quarter.

但進入本季度，我們有 11 億美元的存款，我們知道這些存款將在本季進一步調整。

Our core bank cost of deposits is consistently 40basis points to 50 basis points lower than our community bank peers in the Mid Atlantic. And that's because of the lifetime relationships we have with our customer base, the technology that we use like buy to deliver noticeable convenience to the commercial customers and the leverage we have with our digital platform.

我們的核心銀行存款成本始終比大西洋中部的社區銀行同業低 40 個基點至 50 個基點。這是因為我們與客戶群建立了終身關係，我們使用購買等技術為商業客戶提供明顯的便利，以及我們對數位平台的影響力。

Secondly, the core bank building pipelines on new relationships at a very impressive pace.

其次，核心銀行以令人印象深刻的速度建立新關係管道。

While we do work hard with existing clients and continue to grow with them, the majority of our push and our incentive dollars focus on new commercial relationships to the bank. The pipeline and pace of new relationships is three times what it was a year ago and the momentum is almost all in the second half of this year. This leads us to believe that the community bank's ability to be the noticeable driver in our growth and operating results is finally present.

雖然我們確實與現有客戶努力合作並繼續與他們一起成長，但我們的大部分推動力和激勵資金都集中在與銀行的新商業關係上。新關係的管道和速度是一年前的三倍，而且勢頭幾乎全部集中在今年下半年。這讓我們相信，社區銀行最終有能力成為我們成長和經營績效的顯著驅動力。

A comment or two about Panacea when we started the division, this concept was built to just be a loan vertical and really a consumer loan vertical. At that today, we have continued to tweak the model and build unique digital capabilities that equally focused on deposits as well as commercial loan activity. Tyler's team. This quarter had several really big wins with continued endorsements from large national medical associations and a flurry of new commercial deposits at the end of the quarter. That will probably mean up to $20 million in non-interest-bearing balances. Once the accounts are fully moved and funded.

當我們開始劃分這個部門時，關於 Panacea 的一兩句話，這個概念的建立只是一個貸款垂直領域，而且實際上是一個消費者貸款垂直領域。今天，我們繼續調整模型並建立獨特的數位功能，同樣專注於存款和商業貸款活動。泰勒的團隊。本季度取得了幾項重大勝利，並獲得了大型國家醫學協會的持續認可，並在季度末獲得了一系列新的商業存款。這可能意味著高達 2000 萬美元的無息餘額。一旦帳戶完全轉移並注資。

The development of all the ancillary financial services that we can sell alongside our loan and deposit relationships are in high gear and the early signs about adoption are good.

我們可以與貸款和存款關係一起銷售的所有輔助金融服務的發展都在高速發展，並且採用的早期跡象良好。

We experienced real momentum with our mortgage team.

我們的抵押貸款團隊經歷了真正的動力。

Our results this quarter on locked loans, we eclipsed $1 billion of annual production. Our run rate is $1 billion of locked loans for the first time in the quarter. We locked $277 million of mortgage loans which was up 67% against the same quarter in 2023.

本季我們的鎖定貸款業績超過了 10 億美元的年產量。我們的鎖定貸款運行率在本季首次達到 10 億美元。我們鎖定了 2.77 億美元的抵押貸款，比 2023 年同季成長了 67%。

While we expect a slower fourth quarter, obviously than what we had in the second and third quarter. Our year over year growth rate in production says a lot about first recruiting success and second momentum in this industry.

雖然我們預計第四季的成長速度將明顯慢於第二季和第三季。我們的產量年增率充分說明了該行業首次招聘的成功和第二次勢頭。

Right now, we have the best recruiting pipeline that we have had since we launched this platform in 2022. And combining that with the momentum that the industry is having gives us real confidence that we're going to see expansion in the contribution to our ROA and earnings per share that this division provides.

目前，我們擁有自 2022 年推出該平台以來最好的招募管道。將這一點與行業的發展勢頭相結合，讓我們充滿信心，我們將看到該部門對 ROA 和每股收益的貢獻不斷擴大。

Our announcement about life premium finance is very positive but bittersweet.

我們關於人壽保費融資的公告非常積極，但苦樂參半。

It's, very positive for the three gentlemen that we recruited in 2021 who came to us with a lot of ambition, who built a platform and deepened their relationships and reputation in their industry to a really remarkable level.

對於我們在2021 年招募的三位先生來說，這是非常積極的，他們懷著雄心壯志來到我們這裡，建立了一個平台，並將他們在行業中的關係和聲譽加深到了一個非常了不起的水平。

The opportunity in this division is probably bigger than my entire balance sheet and it just needed a home similar to the one we announced, we'll sweep off a similar amount of deposits immediately and shrink total assets by probably about 10%.

這個部門的機會可能比我的整個資產負債表還要大，它只需要一套類似於我們宣布的房子的房子，我們將立即掃除類似金額的存款，並將總資產縮減約 10%。

We expect this move by itself to improve tangible common equity ratio by about 75 basis points and improve our net interest margin immediately by 6 basis points to 7 basis points.

我們預計此舉本身將使有形普通股比率提高約 75 個基點，並將我們的淨利差立即提高 6 至 7 個基點。

We expect another five basis points of margin left over the next several quarters as some of the remaining assets run off. The real lift with our announcement is with regards to mortgage warehouse.

我們預計，隨著部分剩餘資產的流失，未來幾季的利潤率將剩下五個基點。我們的公告真正帶來的提升是關於抵押倉庫的。

We recruited a team from a large bank that was exiting the space alongside an acquisition and we are sprinting to on board their client base. Fortunately, we had the software already and had done significant engineering and with our small warehouse client base, but what we didn't have was leadership or a team with the relationship that this team has and their vision.

我們從一家大型銀行招募了一個團隊，該銀行在收購的同時退出了該領域，我們正在全力爭取他們的客戶群。幸運的是，我們已經擁有了該軟體，並且已經完成了重要的工程以及我們的小型倉庫客戶群，但我們沒有領導力或具有該團隊所擁有的關係和他們的願景的團隊。

I'm confident that we can replace the entire life premium portfolio over the next few quarters and the yields we are selling in warehouse right now are 160 basis points higher than our current life premium yields.

我相信我們可以在接下來的幾個季度更換整個壽險保費投資組合，我們現在在倉庫中出售的收益率比我們目前的壽險保費收益率高出 160 個基點。

Conservatively, if we assume that only 80% of that pickup holds as we build capacity, we're talking about almost 20 basis points, pick up in the margin and about 13 basis points or so pick up in our return on asset.

保守地說，如果我們假設在我們建設產能時只有 80% 的回升保持不變，那麼我們談論的是近 20 個基點，利潤率回升，資產回報率回升約 13 個基點左右。

The baseline OpEx in this division really isn't materially different than what we had in life premium, and we believe credit costs will be similar.

該部門的基準營運支出實際上與我們的壽險保費沒有太大不同，我們相信信貸成本將會相似。

This was a very good opportunity for our company and my line of sight to the operating ratios that Matt and I want are much clearer after this move. On credit quality, we finished the quarter with only 25 basis points of non-performing assets which is steady really for the last few quarters but half of what it was in the third quarter of 2023. We still don't have any other real estate and have had little migration between the great during the quarter. We did conservatively downgrade one commercial real estate property that had been slow to lease up and really affected by vacancies and close or adjacent properties.

這對我們公司來說是一個非常好的機會，在這次搬遷之後，我對馬特和我想要的營運比率的看法更加清晰。在信貸品質方面，本季末我們的不良資產僅為 25 個基點，這在過去幾季中確實保持穩定，但僅為 2023 年第三季的一半。我們仍然沒有任何其他房地產，而且本季大公司之間的遷移很少。我們確實保守地下調了一項商業地產的評級，該地產租賃緩慢，並且確實受到空置和鄰近或鄰近房產的影響。

Our borrower has funded all of the cost overrun has never missed a payment and pledged additional collateral, but our appraisal cap rate almost doubled from the origination date. And so, we booked a provision for the small shortfall in collateral values. I don't expect a loss on this asset or migration into nonperforming and also believe we might have downgraded this asset, right as cap rates on CRE were peaking.

我們的借款人已經為所有超支提供了資金，從未錯過付款，並承諾提供額外的抵押品，但我們的評估上限率從發起之日起幾乎翻了一番。因此，我們為抵押品價值的小幅缺口提列了準備金。我預計該資產不會出現損失或轉入不良資產，我還認為，在商業房地產資本化率達到頂峰之際，我們可能會下調該資產的評級。

All right. With that map, I will turn it over to you for some comment.

好的。有了那張地圖，我會把它交給你徵求意見。

Thanks Dennis.

謝謝丹尼斯。

As a reminder, a summary of our financial results can be found in our press release and investor presentation, both of which can be found in our 8-K filed with the SEC last evening and placed on our corporate website.

提醒一下，我們的財務業績摘要可以在我們的新聞稿和投資者介紹中找到，這兩者都可以在我們昨晚向 SEC 提交的 8-K 中找到，並放置在我們的公司網站上。

This quarter instead of repeating information found in those sources, I'm going to attempt to walk through some of the impacts of the recent accounting changes in order to help highlight underlying trends in our results.

本季度，我不會重複在這些來源中找到的信息，而是嘗試介紹最近會計變更的一些影響，以幫助突出我們結果中的潛在趨勢。

As Dennis mentioned, our results for the current period and prior period include the impact of corrected accounting for a third party originated consumer loan portfolio.

正如丹尼斯所提到的，我們本期和上期的業績包括對第三方發起的消費貸款組合的更正會計處理的影響。

As detailed in our recently filed 10-K. These changes require the following.

正如我們最近提交的 10-K 中所詳述的那樣。這些變更需要以下內容。

The subset of loans with promotional features don't accrue interest until the end of the promotional period.

具有促銷功能的貸款子集在促銷期間結束之前不會產生利息。

Deferred interest on these loans that exit the promotional phase is largely recognized all at once with a modest discount that is accreted over time.

這些退出促銷階段的貸款的遞延利息基本上是一次性確認的，並隨著時間的推移逐漸增加適度的折扣。

Third party reimbursement for waived interest under our agreement on promotional loans that pay off early is recorded in fee income instead of interest income.

根據我們的促銷貸款協議，提前還清的放棄利息的第三方報銷記錄在費用收入中，而不是利息收入中。

We recorded derivative value representing the fair value of expected interest reimbursements mark to market each period with changes in that value recognized through non-interest income and all credit costs are fully recognized including estimated like to loan losses under Cecil. While potential credit enhancements from the consumer program are recognized as received.

我們記錄了衍生價值，代表了每個時期按市場計價的預期利息償還的公允價值，該價值的變化通過非利息收入確認，所有信貸成本均得到充分確認，包括估計的塞西爾貸款損失。而來自消費者計劃的潛在信用增級則被確認為已收到。

Reported pre-tax pre provision earnings can be found in our earnings release and includes the effects of the fancy of financial holdings consolidation as in previous periods, adjusting for effects of this consolidation and non-recurring items. core pre-tax pre-provision earnings were $10 million in the third quarter versus $9.4 million before changes for the change in accounting in the second quarter.

報告的稅前撥備前收益可以在我們的收益報告中找到，其中包括前期金融控股合併的影響，並根據合併和非經常性項目的影響進行調整。第三季核心稅前撥備前收益為 1,000 萬美元，而第二季會計變更導致的核心稅前撥備收益為 940 萬美元。

Adjustment amounts for both PFH consolidation and non-recurring items can both be found in our press release and investor presentation.

PFH 合併和非經常性項目的調整金額均可在我們的新聞稿和投資者介紹中找到。

This quarter, the various interest income and expense items for the consumer program we've previously discussed, contributed a net of $4.5 million to pre-tax pre provision earnings in the third quarter versus $3.2 million in the second quarter.

本季度，我們先前討論過的消費者計劃的各種利息收入和支出項目為第三季度稅前撥備前收益淨貢獻了 450 萬美元，而第二季度為 320 萬美元。

Under our previous accounting contribution from this portfolio would have been $3.8 million or $700,000 less than reported this quarter last quarter, that would have been $4.5 million or $1.3 million higher than reported.

根據我們先前的會計核算，該投資組合的貢獻將比本季報告的上季報告少 380 萬美元或 70 萬美元，而上季報告的貢獻將比報告的高 450 萬美元或 130 萬美元。

Adjusting for these differences, core pre-tax, pre-provision earnings were $9.3 million in the third quarter versus $10.6 million last quarter.

調整這些差異後，第三季核心稅前、撥備前盈餘為 930 萬美元，而上季為 1,060 萬美元。

A substantial portion of the volatility and reported earnings is due to the timing of interest recognition on promotional loans where we are required to defer to the end of the promotion.

波動性和報告收益的很大一部分是由於促銷貸款的利息確認時間造成的，我們需要推遲到促銷結束。

We recognized $3 million of interest catch up in the third quarter for promotional loans that exited the period and began advertising up substantially from a half million in the second quarter.

我們認識到，第三季促銷貸款的利息追趕了 300 萬美元，這些貸款退出了該時期並開始廣告，較第二季度的 50 萬美元大幅增加。

As a result, our reported margin was 2.97%in the third quarter, up from 2.72% in the second quarter.

因此，我們報告的第三季利潤率為 2.97%，高於第二季的 2.72%。

Adjusting for the effects of the timing differences our margin would have been 2.83% in the third quarter. Down only three basis points from the second quarter.

調整時間差異的影響後，我們第三季的利潤率為 2.83%。較第二季僅下降三個基點。

We also recognize $2.5 million of interest reimbursement from our third-party partner for promotional loans that paid off early in the third quarter up from $1.5 million last quarter, all of which is reflected in non-interest income and not in interest income or margin.

我們也確認了第三方合作夥伴為促銷貸款償還的250 萬美元利息，這些利息在第三季初還清，而上季為150 萬美元，所有這些都反映在非利息收入中，而不是利息收入或利潤中。

We have $60 million of promotional loans deferring interest on September 30 with $17 million and $21 million reaching the end of their promotional periods in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025 respectively.

我們有 6,000 萬美元的促銷貸款將於 9 月 30 日遞延利息，其中 1,700 萬美元和 2,100 萬美元分別在 2025 年第四季和第一季的促銷期結束。

Lastly, I do want to spend a minute on non-interest expense as we highlighted in our earnings release and investor presentation reported non-interest expenses $31 million which included $2.7 million of consolidated PFH expenses or $28.4 million net compared to $27.4 million last quarter.

最後，我確實想花一點時間談談非利息支出，正如我們在收益報告和投資者演示中強調的那樣，非利息支出為3100 萬美元，其中包括270 萬美元的綜合PFH 支出，即淨額2840萬美元，而上季為2740 萬美元。

Mortgage expenses were $6.4 million in the third quarter up from $6.1 million last quarter on higher volume, excluding these expenses as well as non-recurring items. Core bank expenses were $19.8 million down from $20.1 million last quarter. And in line with our five-quarter average, we are laser focused on controlling expenses and generating operating leverage as we move past our accounting noise and look to grow revenue meaningfully in 2025.

由於數量增加，第三季抵押貸款費用為 640 萬美元，高於上一季的 610 萬美元，不包括這些費用以及非經常性項目。核心銀行費用為 1,980 萬美元，較上季的 2,010 萬美元減少。與我們五個季度的平均水平一致，我們專注於控制費用和產生營運槓桿，因為我們超越了會計噪音，並希望在 2025 年實現收入的大幅增長。

With that operator, we can now open the line for questions.

有了這個接線員，我們現在就可以打開提問線路了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Russell Gunther, Stephens Inc.

羅素‧岡瑟，史蒂芬斯公司

Hey, this is Nick Bellmann in for Russell Gunther. I just wanted to start off with your core expense outlook. Could you give a little guidance on that? Given the puts and takes of the premium finance sale and new hires around mortgage warehouse.

嘿，這是尼克貝爾曼 (Nick Bellmann) 飾演拉塞爾岡瑟 (Russell Gunther)。我只想從您的核心支出前景開始。您能就此提供一些指導嗎？考慮到優質金融銷售的看跌期權和期權以及抵押貸款倉庫周圍的新員工。

Should be relatively flat Nick.

應該是比較平的尼克。

Okay. And then going on Mortgage warehouse, do you plan to break that those loans out separately from a modelling perspective?

好的。然後繼續抵押貸款倉庫，您是否計劃從建模角度單獨分解這些貸款？

I think we would similar to everything else we've done. We, probably display it kind of like an operating segment. When you say modelling, you mean for maybe for loan loss reserving or for interest rate risk of or margin.

我認為我們會像我們所做的其他事情一樣。我們可能會將其顯示為營運部門。當您說建模時，您的意思可能是貸款損失準備或利率風險或保證金。

Yes, that's what I mean. No loss reserve.

是的，這就是我的意思。無損失準備金。

Yes, I mean, it's going to be, not that material in the fourth quarter and depending on how the next couple of weeks ago. But as we move through '25. we'll, we will certainly break out as much information as possible. So you can get a sense for the trends.

是的，我的意思是，這將不是第四季度的材料，取決於接下來幾週前的情況。但當我們進入 25 年後。我們一定會透露盡可能多的信息。這樣您就可以了解趨勢。

Okay. That makes sense. And if I remember correctly, I believe the [deck] said it will be either in 4Q of '24 1Q '25. And I was just curious if there was going to be, if you guys had a good growth rate on those mortgage warehouse loans,

好的。這是有道理的。如果我沒記錯的話，我相信 [deck] 說它將是在 24 年 4 季或 25 年 1 季度。我只是很好奇，如果你們的抵押倉庫貸款成長率很高的話，

What was, what were you referring to in the fourth quarter or first quarter.

你指的第四季或第一季是什麼？

When you start breaking out, when you start breaking out and disclosing the mortgage warehouse loans,

當你開始爆發的時候，當你開始爆發並披露抵押倉貸的時候，

I mean, we're sprinting to sort of add their customers and the fourth quarter and the first quarter are slower in the mortgage industry generally. So this is really a good time to, to be contacting the customers.

我的意思是，我們正在努力增加他們的客戶，而第四季和第一季抵押貸款行業的成長速度普遍較慢。所以這確實是聯繫客戶的好時機。

I think they left their former bank with about 215 customers. They've been employed here for about three weeks I think we're close to 24 customers now we're trying to get maybe to 75 by the end of the year and I think we'll just sort of sprint into that and then maybe as we get into the first part of the year.

我認為他們離開前銀行時大約有 215 名客戶。他們已經在這裡工作了大約三週，我想我們已經接近 24 名客戶了，現在我們正努力在年底前達到 75 名，我想我們會衝刺到這一點，然後也許當我們進入今年上半年時。

We continue to add, I mean, again, we're moving off $375 million or so of life premium loans. We think there's going to be another probably $50 million or so that runs off, through the middle of next year.

我們繼續補充，我的意思是，我們再次取消了大約 3.75 億美元的人壽保費貸款。我們認為到明年年中，可能還會有大約 5,000 萬美元左右的資金被耗盡。

So really, we're looking to replace call it, let's say $400million to 450 million of life premium loans with these mortgage warehouse loans, and I think for the for next year, I think the average mortgage warehouse book, I think I feel comfortable at $400 million for the whole year.

所以說真的，我們正在尋求用這些抵押倉庫貸款來取代所謂的 4 億至 4.5 億美元的人壽保費貸款，我認為明年，我認為平均抵押倉庫賬簿，我認為我覺得全年收入在4 億美元左右。

Okay, great. That makes sense. And now on to ROA, so you previously laid out a target for a sustainable 1% ROA. Can you walk us or walk me through the flight path of when you think you guys are going to get there.

好的，太好了。這是有道理的。現在談談 ROA，您之前就設定了可持續 1% ROA 的目標。當你們認為你們會到達那裡時，你們能帶我們或帶我走過飛行路線嗎？

We've got a reasonable shot to get there in the second half of 2025 second half, the late 2025. Part of that Nick is going to be we're going through, we're either going to get the change in accounting that we're hoping for and take out some of the volatility. Otherwise, we're going to be experiencing volatility but really only for largely a couple more quarters you potentially because most of the volatility is tied to these promotional loans and they're, they bleed off pretty fast in the next 2 to 3 quarters.

我們有合理的機會在 2025 年下半年、2025 年底實現這一目標。尼克將要經歷的部分原因是，我們要么實現我們所希望的會計變革，要么消除一些波動。否則，我們將經歷波動，但實際上只會持續幾個季度，因為大部分波動都與這些促銷貸款有關，而且它們在接下來的 2 到 3 個季度內很快就會消失。

So, setting all that aside, we're moving off a pretty good size portfolio but going to be replacing it, almost dollar for dollar by the middle of '25.

因此，拋開所有這些，我們將放棄一個規模相當大的投資組合，但將在 25 年中期更換它，幾乎是一美元對一美元。

And we think at higher rates and incrementally better profitability, do you combine that with some decent expense say or cost controls or normal retail mortgage operation, we're projecting that to do better next year, and we expect the core bank to contribute more next year and to see some market margin expansion on the core base. So, I mean, I can't lay out all the basis points of contribution that all those puts and takes are going to add up. But we look at how all that combines, we think that gets us to at least 1%. Yes, maybe more.

我們認為，在更高的利率和逐漸更好的盈利能力的情況下，您是否將其與一些體面的費用（例如成本控製或正常的零售抵押貸款業務）結合起來，我們預計明年會做得更好，我們預期核心銀行明年將做出更多貢獻今年，核心基地的市場利潤率將會擴大。所以，我的意思是，我無法列出所有這些看跌期權和跌跌期權將加起來的所有貢獻基點。但我們看看所有這些如何結合起來，我們認為這至少能讓我們達到 1%。是的，也許更多。

I mean, you can't, I there are so many moving parts, but I mean, I think the mortgage, the momentum we have in mortgage talking about quarter over quarter growth in locked loans and in revenues and all that.

我的意思是，你不能，我有很多活動部件，但我的意思是，我認為抵押貸款，我們在抵押貸款方面的勢頭，談論鎖定貸款和收入的季度環比增長等等。

I mean, if that holds into next year, that's probably another 7 basis points or 8 basis points to 10 basis points, trading life premium for the warehouse opportunity like we said, it's probably 13 basis points.

我的意思是，如果這種情況持續到明年，可能會再增加7 個基點或8 個基點到10 個基點，就像我們所說的那樣，用壽命溢價換取倉庫機會，可能會增加13 個基點。

The core bank no question rates falling like I said, with $1 billion dollars of deposits still left to be repriced this quarter.

正如我所說，核心銀行的利率無疑會下降，本季仍有 10 億美元的存款需要重新定價。

There's no doubt that, the sensitivity to falling rates on our liability side is going to power more margin and more ROA. So again, like I'm like I was saying, I mean, the energy and enthusiasm we have for the line of sight to the to the numbers you're talking about or better. It's really good. It's anyway, I'll leave it at that.

毫無疑問，我們在負債方面對利率下降的敏感度將推動更高的利潤率和更高的資產回報率。再說一遍，就像我剛才所說的那樣，我的意思是，我們對您正在談論的數字或更好的數字的視線所擁有的能量和熱情。真的很好。無論如何，我就這樣吧。

No, that's perfect. That helps a lot and that's it on my questions. Thanks for answering them.

不，那是完美的。這很有幫助，這就是我的問題。感謝您回答他們。

Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott.

克里斯多福·馬裡納克，珍妮·蒙哥馬利·斯科特。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for hosting us. Matt, just a quick housekeeping question. So the numbers we see in the press release and the core release, those are going to, those reflect toward the new information and that will be kind of verified once the cues are filed. Do I do I have that right.

嘿，早安。感謝您接待我們。馬特，只是一個簡單的內務問題。因此，我們在新聞稿和核心發布中看到的數字，這些數字將反映新訊息，一旦提交線索，這些數字將得到驗證。我有這個權利嗎？

Yes. And those are all, all the quarters restated for the change in accounting. So it's all been

是的。這些就是所有因會計變更而重述的季度。所以這一切都已經

Got it.

知道了。

Backwards.

向後。

Perfect. That's what I thought. Okay, great. Just wanted to be 100% sure. The criticized loan numbers were stable this quarter. Do you see any movement from that. And does the way that the consumer portfolio behave impact those at all.

完美的。我就是這麼想的。好的，太好了。只是想百分百確定。本季受到批評的貸款數量保持穩定。你看到有什麼動靜嗎？消費者組合的行為方式是否會影響這些？

No, those are not, those are not reflected in this.

不，那些不是，那些沒有反映在這個裡面。

It's those loans, you know, our typical consumer loans, they get the 90 days, and they charge off.

這些貸款，你知道，我們典型的消費貸款，他們有 90 天的期限，然後就可以註銷。

That's what I thought. Okay. And then the trend on just general, you know, coming and goings on, you know, commercial criticized and special or substandard,

我就是這麼想的。好的。然後是一般趨勢，你知道，來來去去，你知道，商業批評和特殊或不合格，

I mean, outside of the two credits, the more significant one and a much smaller one in the quarter that went from special mention to substandard.

我的意思是，除了這兩個學分之外，本季度中更重要的一個和一個小得多的學分從特別提及變成了不合格。

We're not, still, not seeing a whole lot of inflow and both of these credits we've been watching for a while. So, it's not like we, this came out of the blue or with some surprise, maybe the valuation, that we had to rely on when we put the reserve on the bigger on was a little bit of a surprise, but we think that's very conservative. And the customers continue to pay. So, unfortunately, you still have to use their appraisal when it comes in.

我們仍然沒有看到大量資金流入，而且我們已經關注這兩個資金一段時間了。所以，這不像我們，這是突然出現的，或者有些意外，也許當我們把準備金放在更大的時候我們必須依賴的估值有點令人驚訝，但我們認為這非常令人驚訝。的。客戶繼續付款。因此，不幸的是，您仍然必須使用他們的評估。

So, but otherwise, I can't think of any credits that have moved into a problem bucket or started to creep up the risk waiting curve that we weren't already aware of, or I've been watching.

所以，但除此之外，我想不出有任何信用已進入問題桶或開始爬上我們尚未意識到或我一直在觀察的風險等待曲線。

Great. Thank you for that colour. And then another question just goes back to the cost of funds, should, should that rate that we see this quarter be sort of a peak and it works itself down. And do you have a thought, I guess in terms of how betas may play out looking forward the next 4 to 5 quarters.

偉大的。謝謝你的那個顏色。然後另一個問題又回到了資金成本，如果我們看到本季的利率達到高峰並且它會自行下降。我想你有沒有想過未來 4 到 5 個季度的測試版會如何發揮作用。

So, the first part of your question, yes, I mean we saw cost of funds tick down in September. So, it is basically peaked in August. As to beta's, some of it's going to depend on, I think what happens with the next be cut. It feels like competitors have lower rates and we have to, particularly in the core bank for the higher rate stuff, that have been kind of the upper end of the cost structure. We were pretty aggressive moving some of those down. I can't, our overall data for the core bank is probably 20% maybe after the last move. If the fed doesn't cut, I think we'll have an opportunity actually to continue to incrementally keep moving stuff down and get some more beta on the first bed cut.

所以，你問題的第一部分，是的，我的意思是我們看到 9 月的資金成本下降。所以，8月份基本上達到頂峰。至於測試版，其中一些將取決於，我認為下一個被削減會發生什麼。感覺競爭對手的利率較低，而我們必須這樣做，特別是在核心銀行中利率較高的東西，這一直是成本結構的高端。我們非常積極地降低了其中一些。我不能，我們的核心銀行整體數據在最後一次行動之後可能是20%。如果聯準會不降息，我認為我們實際上將有機會繼續逐步降低利率，並在第一次降息時獲得更多貝塔值。

If they do cut again, we're still going to cut but some of it dictated by the competitive environment and, and what they're doing with their rates. Not as many people seem to have been aggressive cutting after that first move.

如果他們再次降息，我們仍然會降息，但其中一些是由競爭環境以及他們對利率的處理決定的。在採取第一步行動後，似乎沒有多少人採取積極的削減措施。

And one more thing, Matt and I have been watching our digital deposits and we did make a few moves on the digital side, but generally we, we did not make a lot of adjustments on the digital deposit there's $915 million or $920 million there. One, we're doing a little bit of a, we're doing a small sort of upgrade slash conversion on the, on the customer experience here in about a month.

還有一件事，馬特和我一直在關注我們的數位存款，我們確實在數字方面採取了一些舉措，但總的來說，我們沒有對數位存款進行太多調整，那裡有9.15 億或9.2 億美元。第一，我們正在做一點點，我們正在大約一個月內對這裡的客戶體驗進行小型升級斜線轉換。

And we think there's another right move coming or if there is another rate move coming, we did not want to be pinging them aggressively.

我們認為還有另一個正確的舉動即將到來，或者如果有另一個利率變動即將到來，我們不想積極地向他們發出通知。

So, I mean, that's that plus some broker deposits that we have that are coming up in December. I mean, there's $ 1billion dollars of deposits on our balance sheet that never really got moved on this last rate cut that we are going to move this quarter.

所以，我的意思是，這就是我們 12 月即將存入的一些經紀人存款。我的意思是，我們的資產負債表上有 10 億美元的存款在我們本季即將實施的最後一次降息中從未真正動過。

Just want a little more line of sight into what the fed is going to do and, get past our conversion. So, I mean, I know you and your question about, have we peaked? There's no question we peaked. I think, how much we can get out of that ahead of maybe having an earning asset opportunity with mortgage warehouse. We just want to be smart and cautious there, but now we're going to, you're going to see some no noticeable improvement in cost of funds.

只是想要更多地了解美聯儲將要做什麼，並超越我們的轉換。所以，我的意思是，我了解你和你的問題，我們已經達到頂峰了嗎？毫無疑問，我們達到了頂峰。我想，在透過抵押倉庫獲得獲利資產機會之前，我們可以從中獲得多少收益。我們只是想在這方面保持聰明和謹慎，但現在我們將看到資金成本沒有明顯改善。

And even on the digital bank and what Dennis is referring to, we were, we've been appropriately measured in like how we deal with existing deposits on that, but we did lower rates for new money coming in and we're still attracting money at those newer rates. So, we're averaging down the cost of the digital platform, even without being real aggressive for existing money.

即使在數位銀行以及丹尼斯所指的方面，我們也已經在如何處理現有存款方面進行了適當的衡量，但我們對新資金的流入採取了較低的利率，而且我們仍然在吸引資金以較新的費率。因此，我們正在平均降低數位平台的成本，即使沒有真正積極地利用現有資金。

Okay, great. Yes, I was going to ask about the new inflows that you saw. So, you sort of addressed that and it sounds like if there is a difference on beta versus digital versus the core bank, it's hard to really talk about that today. Give a few more quarters and sort of circle back on how the experience is.

好的，太好了。是的，我想問你看到的新資金流入情況。所以，你有點解決了這個問題，聽起來如果測試版、數位版和核心銀行之間有差異，今天很難真正談論這個問題。再給我幾個季度的時間，然後回顧一下體驗如何。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, great. Thanks for all the information today as always. And I appreciate you hosting the call.

好的，太好了。一如既往地感謝今天提供的所有資訊。我感謝您主持這次電話會議。

There are no further questions at this time. I'll hand things back over to Dennis Zember's CEO for some final remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我將把事情交還給 Dennis Zember 的首席執行官，讓其發表最後的評論。

All right. Thank you again for your participation and your interest. If you have any questions or comments. Of course, Matt and I are around all the time so just give us a call, text or email and we'll get back to you.

好的。再次感謝您的參與和興趣。如果您有任何疑問或意見。當然，我和馬特一直都在，所以只需給我們打電話、發短信或發送電子郵件，我們就會回复您。

Thank you. Have a great weekend.

謝謝。週末愉快。