First Industrial Realty Trust Inc (FR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the First Industrial Realty Trust Inc fourth quarter results call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Art Harmon, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Marketing. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 First Industrial Realty Trust Inc 第四季業績電話會議。（操作員指令）。請注意，該事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係和行銷高級副總裁 Art Harmon。請繼續。

Thanks a lot, Dave. Hello everybody and welcome to our call. Before we discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results and our initial guidance for 2025, let me remind everyone that our call may include forward-looking statements as defined by federal securities laws. These statements are based on management's expectations, plans, and estimates of our prospects. Today's statements may be time sensitive and accurate only as of today's date, February 6, 2025. We assume no obligation to update our statements or the other information we provide.

非常感謝，戴夫。大家好，歡迎來電。在我們討論 2024 年第四季和全年業績以及 2025 年的初步指引之前，讓我提醒大家，我們的電話會議可能包含聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理層對我們的前景的期望、計劃和估計。今天的聲明可能具有時間敏感性，並且僅截至今天（2025 年 2 月 6 日）的準確性。我們不承擔更新我們的聲明或我們提供的其他資訊的義務。

Actual results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements, and factors which could cause this are described in our 10-K and other SEC filings. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our supplemental report and our earnings release. The supplemental report, earnings release, and our SEC filings are available at firstindustrial.com under the investors tab.

實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述有重大差異，可能導致這種情況的因素在我們的 10-K 和其他 SEC 文件中有所描述。您可以在我們的補充報告和收益報告中找到今天的電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表。補充報告、收益報告和我們的 SEC 文件可在 firstindustrial.com 的投資者標籤下找到。

Our call will begin with remarks by Peter Baccile, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Scott Musil, our Chief Financial Officer, after which we'll open it up for your questions. Also with us today are Jojo Yap, Chief Investment Officer; Peter Schultz, Executive Vice President; Chris Schneider, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Bob Walter, Executive Vice President of Capital Markets and Asset Management. Now let me hand it over to Peter.

我們的電話會議將以總裁兼執行長 Peter Baccile 和財務長 Scott Musil 的演講開始，之後我們將開始回答您的問題。今天與我們在一起的還有首席投資官 Jojo Yap；彼得·舒爾茨 (Peter Schultz)，執行副總裁；克里斯·施耐德 (Chris Schneider)，營運執行副總裁；以及資本市場和資產管理執行副總裁鮑勃·沃爾特（Bob Walter）。現在讓我把它交給彼得。

Thank you, Art, and thank you all for joining us today. The First Industrial team wrapped up a successful 2024 highlighted by delivering strong cash rental rate growth on leasing and achieving our second highest volume year for development lease signing since we relaunched our program in 2012. We're equally excited about the impact this success is having on our 2025 FFO growth. Based on the midpoint of our guidance, we're expecting to grow FFO approximately 10%. Scott will walk you through the details later when he addresses our guidance.

謝謝你，阿特，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。第一工業團隊在 2024 年取得了成功，其亮點是實現了強勁的租賃現金租金率增長，並實現了自 2012 年重新啟動計劃以來開發租賃簽約量第二高的一年。我們同樣對這次成功對我們 2025 年 FFO 成長的影響感到興奮。根據我們指導的中點，我們預計 FFO 將成長約 10%。斯科特稍後在講解我們的指導時會向您詳細介紹。

Before getting into specifics of our performance, let me comment on the industrial market broadly. CBRE-EA reports US industrial market vacancy hit 6.1% at year end, a 30-basis point rise from Q3 '24. New construction start volume is 62% lower than the third quarter 2022 peak, with just 43 million square feet breaking ground in Q4 '24.

在詳細介紹我們的業績之前，我先對工業市場進行廣泛的評論。CBRE-EA 報告稱，美國工業市場空置率在年底達到 6.1%，較 24 年第三季上升 30 個基點。新建築開工量比 2022 年第三季的峰值低 62%，2024 年第四季僅有 4,300 萬平方英尺開工。

In our 15 target markets, space under construction totals 143 million square feet, signaling future quarterly completions could fall well below the 46 million square feet delivered in the fourth quarter of '24. On the demand side, net absorption nationally was 24 million square feet in the fourth quarter, 15 million of which was in our target markets.

在我們的 15 個目標市場中，在建面積總計 1.43 億平方英尺，這表明未來季度完工量可能遠低於 24 年第四季交付的 4,600 萬平方英尺。在需求方面，第四季全國淨吸收量為 2,400 萬平方英尺，其中 1,500 萬平方英尺位於我們的目標市場。

With the election behind us, we're hopeful that this reduction in uncertainty will lead to a stronger commitment to growth investing, and, in turn, a more consistent pace in development leasing.

隨著大選的結束，我們希望不確定性的減少將帶來對成長型投資的更強的承諾，進而帶來開發租賃更穩定的步伐。

From our portfolio point of view, we ended the year with in-service occupancy of 96.2%, aided by some fourth quarter development leasing, which I will touch upon shortly. Our team also delivered a cash rental rate increase of 51% for the year., which is the second highest in our 30-year history. This marks back to back years of 50+% for this metric.

從我們的投資組合來看，今年年底我們的在用入住率達到 96.2%，這得益於第四季度的一些開發租賃，我稍後會談到這一點。我們的團隊也實現了全年現金租金率上漲 51%，這是我們 30 年歷史上第二高的水平。這標誌著該指標連續兩年超過 50%。

Looking at our 2025 lease expirations, we're making solid progress and are now through 59% by square footage. Together with new leasing, our cash rental rate increase for leases signed with 2025 commencement date is 33%. Excluding the 1.3 million square-foot fixed rate renewal in Central Pennsylvania we discussed on our last call, 2025 signed leases to date had a cash rental rate increase of 42%.

回顧我們 2025 年的租約到期情況，我們正在取得穩步進展，目前已完成 59%（以平方英尺計算）。加上新租賃，我們簽訂的 2025 年生效租約的現金租金率上漲了 33%。不包括我們上次電話會議討論的賓州中部 130 萬平方英尺的固定利率續約，迄今為止簽署的 2025 年租約的現金租金率上漲了 42%。

For the full year, we expect cash rental rate growth to range from 30% to 40% overall and 35% to 45%, excluding the aforementioned Central PA renewal. We ended the fourth quarter on a positive note with about 1 million square feet of signed development leasing on balance sheet and another 463,000 square feet in our Phoenix joint venture.

就全年而言，我們預期現金租金率整體成長率在 30% 至 40% 之間，不包括上述中央 PA 續約，成長率介於 35% 至 45% 之間。我們以積極的表現結束了第四季度，資產負債表上簽署的開發租賃合約約為 100 萬平方英尺，而菲尼克斯合資企業中另有 463,000 平方英尺的合約。

On balance sheet, we signed a full building lease for our 542,000 square-footer in Nashville with a repeat customer nine months ahead of the anticipated building completion. We also leased the remaining 350,000 square feet at our First Logistics Center @ 283 Building B in Pennsylvania, and 100% of our 83,000 square-foot First Elm building in the Inland Empire.

在資產負債表上，我們在預計的建築竣工時間前九個月與一位回頭客簽署了位於納許維爾的 542,000 平方英尺建築的完整租約。我們也租賃了位於賓州第一物流中心@283號 B 棟的剩餘 350,000 平方英尺空間，以及位於內陸帝國第一榆樹大廈 83,000 平方英尺空間的全部空間。

As I noted at the start of the call, our team delivered an excellent year of development leasing. In total for 2024, we signed 4.7 million square feet of development leases inclusive of our joint venture. This compares to a budgeted number of 2.8 million square feet in our original 2024 guidance.

正如我在電話會議開始時提到的，我們的團隊在開發租賃方面取得了卓越的成績。截至 2024 年，我們共簽署了 470 萬平方英尺的開發租約（包括合資企業）。相較之下，我們最初的 2024 年指導預算為 280 萬平方英尺。

Not only were we pleased with the amount of leasing, the signings were broad-based, representing 10 of our 15 target markets, which were Northern and Southern California, Nashville, Central Pennsylvania, Phoenix, Houston, Chicago, Seattle, Miami, and Denver. Many thanks to our regional teams for this fantastic performance.

我們不僅對租賃數量感到滿意，簽約範圍也很廣泛，涵蓋了我們 15 個目標市場中的 10 個，即北加州和南加州、納許維爾、賓州中部、鳳凰城、休士頓、芝加哥、西雅圖、邁阿密和丹佛。非常感謝我們地區團隊的精彩表演。

We've also started two new developments which will contribute to our long-term growth. On the heels of the 542,000 square-foot lease at our First Rockdale Park in Nashville, we started a 317,000 square- foot building. Our total projected investment is $33 million. Nashville's long-term growth drivers and current fundamentals are strong, as vacancy stands around 3% and unleased new supply represents 1.7% of total stock.

我們還啟動了兩項新的開發項目，這將有助於我們的長期成長。在獲得納許維爾第一羅克代爾公園 542,000 平方英尺的租約後，我們開始建造一座 317,000 平方英尺的建築。我們預計的總投資為 3,300 萬美元。納許維爾的長期成長動力和當前基本面強勁，空置率約為 3%，未出租新供應量佔總庫存的 1.7%。

In the Lehigh Valley in the I-78/81 Corridor, we started our first phase at First Park 33. There we're constructing two buildings totaling 362,000 square feet with a total estimated investment of $63 million. The building sizes and depths will allow us to target the smaller tenant segment which we believe is underserved by new construction, as most availabilities are targeting tenants 200,000 square feet and up.

在 I-78/81 走廊的利哈伊谷，我們在 First Park 33 開始了第一階段的工作。我們正在那裡建造兩棟建築，總面積達 362,000 平方英尺，總投資預計為 6,300 萬美元。建築的大小和深度使我們能夠瞄準較小的租戶群體，我們認為新建築無法滿足這一群體的需求，因為大多數可用建築都針對 200,000 平方英尺及以上的租戶。

The cash yield for each of the fourth quarter starts is expected to be north of 7%. We're also well positioned for future development opportunities as submarket conditions warrant.

預計第四季每季的現金收益率都將超過 7%。如果子市場條件允許，我們也為未來的發展機會做好了準備。

In the fourth quarter, we were pleased to close on the final land parcel at our First Park Miami project for $16 million. With this addition, we can now develop an additional 1.1 million square feet of product at what will ultimately be a 2.5 million square-foot park. In total, our land positions across our target markets can accommodate 15 million square feet of growth.

第四季度，我們很高興以 1600 萬美元的價格成交了邁阿密第一公園項目的最後一塊土地。透過這項擴建，我們現在可以在最終佔地 250 萬平方英尺的公園內開發額外的 110 萬平方英尺的產品。總體而言，我們在目標市場的土地儲備可容納 1500 萬平方英尺的成長空間。

Moving now to dispositions. We sold 5 buildings totaling 214,000 square feet for $25 million in the fourth quarter to bring our total for the year to $163 million. Since 2010, we've completed the sale of $2.4 billion of legacy assets, achieving portfolio objectives for location, functionality, and growth prospects. Therefore, moving forward, you should assume property sales volumes will be lower than prior years. For 2025, we expect asset sales of up to $75 million.

現在討論處置事宜。我們在第四季以 2500 萬美元的價格出售了 5 棟建築，總面積達 214,000 平方英尺，使我們全年的總銷售額達到 1.63 億美元。自 2010 年以來，我們已完成價值 24 億美元的遺留資產出售，實現了位置、功能和成長前景的投資組合目標。因此，展望未來，你應該假設房地產銷售量將低於前幾年。到 2025 年，我們預計資產銷售額將達到 7,500 萬美元。

Lastly, with respect to our dividend. Given our performance and outlook, our Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.445 per share. This is an increase of 20.3%, which is aligned with our anticipated cash flow growth.

最後，關於我們的股利。鑑於我們的業績和前景，董事會宣布每股股息為 0.445 美元。這一增幅為 20.3%，與我們預期的現金流量成長一致。

Before I turn it over to Scott, I'd like to express our heartfelt sympathies to the people of Southern California who have been impacted by the wildfires. The physical and emotional destruction is tragic and unprecedented, and FR will continue to do what we can to support the impacted communities. With respect to our people and properties, we are fortunate and thankful to be able to say our teammates and their families are safe and sound, and none of our buildings have been affected. With that I'll turn it over to Scott.

在將發言權交給史考特之前，我想向遭受野火影響的南加州人民表達衷心的慰問。這種物質和情感上的破壞是悲慘的、前所未有的，FR 將繼續盡我們所能支持受影響的社區。就我們的人員和財產而言，我們很幸運也很感激能夠說我們的隊友和他們的家人安然無恙，我們的建築物都沒有受到影響。現在我將把話題交給史考特。

Thanks, Peter. Let me recap our results. Nareit funds from operations were $0.71 per fully diluted share compared to $0.63 per share in 4Q 2023. For the year, NAREIT FFO per fully diluted share grew 8.6% to $2.65 compared to $2.44, 2023.

謝謝，彼得。讓我回顧一下我們的結果。Nareit 營運資金為每股全面攤薄收益 0.71 美元，而 2023 年第四季為每股 0.63 美元。今年，NAREIT 每股完全攤薄 FFO 成長 8.6% 至 2.65 美元，而 2023 年為 2.44 美元。

Our cash same store NOI growth for the quarter, excluding termination fees was 9.3%. The results in the quarter were primarily driven by increases in rental rates and new and renewal leasing, rental rate bumps embedded in our leases partially offset by higher free rent.

本季度，我們現金同店淨營業收入成長率（不含終止費用）為 9.3%。本季度的業績主要受租金上漲以及新租賃和續租的推動，租約中嵌入的租金上漲部分被更高的免租金所抵消。

For the full year 2024, cash same store NOI growth was 8.1%, excluding the third quarter 2024 accelerated recognition of a tenant improvement reimbursement in Central Pennsylvania and a similar accelerated reimbursement in the first quarter of 2023 related to a tenant in Dallas. We finished the quarter with in-service occupancy of 96.2%, up 120 basis points from the third quarter, and 70 basis points from year-end 2023.

2024 年全年，現金同店淨營業收入成長率為 8.1%，不包括 2024 年第三季加速確認的賓州中部租戶改善補償以及 2023 年第一季與達拉斯租戶相關的類似加速補償。本季結束時，我們的入住率為 96.2%，較第三季上升 120 個基點，較 2023 年底上升 70 個基點。

As we stand today, we have approximately 140 basis points lease up opportunity from developments place and service '23 in 2024.

截至目前，到 2024 年，我們從開發案場地和服務『23』中獲得約 140 個基點的租賃機會。

Summarizing our leasing activity during the fourth quarter. Approximately 1.9 million square feet of leases commenced. Of these, 600,000 were new, 800,000 were renewals, and 500,000 were for developments and acquisitions with lease-up.

總結我們第四季的租賃活動。約有 190 萬平方英尺的租賃合約已開始簽訂。其中，60 萬套為新建，80 萬套為續建，50 萬套為開發或收購併租賃。

Now on to our 2025 initial FFO guidance. Our guidance range for NAREIT FFO is $2.87 to $2.97 per share. At the midpoint of $2.92 per share, this represents a 10% growth rate from 2024. Key assumptions are as follows. An average quarter end in service occupancy range, 95% to 96%. This assumes approximately 1.6 million square feet of development leasing during the year, the vast majority assumed to occur in the second half.

現在來看看我們 2025 年的初步 FFO 指導。我們對 NAREIT FFO 的指導範圍是每股 2.87 美元至 2.97 美元。以每股 2.92 美元的中間價計算，這意味著從 2024 年起的成長率為 10%。關鍵假設如下。平均季末服務佔用率在 95% 至 96% 之間。假設全年開發租賃量約為 160 萬平方英尺，其中絕大部分將發生在下半年。

Cash seems to allow growth before termination fees of 6% to 7%. Note that the same store guidance excludes the impact of the accelerated recognition of a tenant improvement reimbursement in 2024 related to the aforementioned Central Pennsylvania lease.

現金似乎能夠實現 6% 至 7% 的終止費前成長。請注意，同一家店的指導不包括與上述賓州中部租約相關的 2024 年加速確認租戶改善補償的影響。

Guidance includes the anticipated 2025 costs related to our completed and under construction developments at December 31st. For the full year 2025, we expect to capitalize about $0.09 per share of interest. And our G&A expense guidance range is $40.5 million to $41.5 million. Let me turn it back over to Peter.

該指引包括截至 12 月 31 日我們已完工和在建開發案預計的 2025 年成本。就 2025 年全年而言，我們預期每股資本化約 0.09 美元。我們的 G&A 費用指導範圍是 4,050 萬美元至 4,150 萬美元。讓我把這個任務交還給彼得。

2024 was an outstanding year and I would once again like to extend my thanks to the entire First Industrial team. Your dedication to serving our customers and driving strong future cash flow growth from development leasing and rental rate increases are driving meaningful growth in shareholder value. And I know you share my excitement for the growth opportunities that lie ahead in 2025 and beyond.

2024 年是傑出的一年，我再次向整個第一工業團隊表達感謝。您全心全意為客戶服務，並透過開發租賃和租金上漲推動未來現金流強勁成長，從而推動股東價值實現有意義的成長。我知道您和我一樣對 2025 年及以後的成長機會感到興奮。

Operator, with that, we're ready to open it up for questions.

接線員，現在我們可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Ki Bin Kim, Truist.

Ki Bin Kim，Truist。

Thank you. Good morning. Can we first start off with maybe getting refreshed, your refreshed views on the Los Angeles and Inland Empire markets and if you're seeing any green shoots for demand growth?

謝謝。早安.我們是否可以先了解您對洛杉磯和內陸帝國市場的新看法，以及您是否看到需求成長的綠芽？

Jojo you want to take that?

喬喬你想拿走那個嗎？

Sure. Ki Bin, Hi. It's Jojo. When you look at post-election, we've gotten more tours, more requests for proposals, so touring activity is up. In terms of ports, year-to-date it's up 22%. We haven't seen a big impact of that although as we've stated here, we've leased First Elm, which is a low coverage site that might have impacted positively our leasing of that asset, but we're not going to predict in a big move because of the port activity.

當然。Ki Bin，你好。是喬喬。回顧選舉後，我們收到了更多的旅遊團和更多的提案請求，因此旅遊活動增加。就港口而言，今年迄今已上漲22%。雖然我們在此表示過，我們已經租了 First Elm，但我們還未看到這會帶來很大的影響。這是一個覆蓋率較低的站點，可能會對我們租賃該資產產生正面影響，但鑑於港口活動，我們不會預測會出現大的變動。

Vacancy did pick up for both LA and IE a little bit, but there's a couple of things that we're watching closely and the trend is good. Overall, under construction for LA, IE is down in terms of quarter to quarter. Completions were also down quarter to quarter, starts to significantly down. So if that trend continues and the market continues to absorb what's been delivered in Q4 2024, we should be -- the market should be firming up.

洛杉磯和艾奧瓦州的空置率確實有所上升，但我們正在密切關注幾件事，而且趨勢是良好的。整體來看，洛杉磯、IE 地區的在建工程數量呈現逐季下降趨勢。竣工量也呈現逐季下降趨勢，開工量則大幅下降。因此，如果這種趨勢持續下去，而市場繼續吸收 2024 年第四季交付的產品，那麼市場應該會走強。

Okay, and on your development pipeline, roughly like how much square footage are you assuming that you're leasing up at, I guess, at the midpoint for your guidance please.

好的，在您的開發流程中，您假設租賃的面積大約是多少平方英尺，我想，請給出中間點的指導。

Sure, it's -- Ki Bin, Scott. We're assuming 1.6 million square feet of development lease-up the vast majority of it weighted to the second half of the year.

當然，是 —— Ki Bin，Scott。我們預計開發租賃面積為 160 萬平方英尺，其中絕大部分集中在今年下半年。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Nicholas Yulico, Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

加拿大豐業銀行的尼可拉斯‧尤利科 (Nicholas Yulico)。請繼續。

Hi, this is Greg McGinniss on for Nick. Just hoping you could talk about the Denver market, what you're seeing on leasing there. Occupancy has ticked down with the assets being placed in the service there, and any updates on Aurora Commerce Center would be appreciated.

大家好，我是 Greg McGinniss，代替 Nick。只是希望您能談談丹佛市場以及您看到那裡的租賃情況。隨著資產投入使用，入住率已經下降，如能提供有關 Aurora Commerce Center 的任何更新信息，我們將不勝感激。

Yes, sure, Greg, it's Peter. So Denver as we know has been working through a little bit of elevated supply that continues to get leased. Market occupancy improved a little bit in the fourth quarter. Demand has been okay, decision making continues to be elongated with some of the tenants or prospective tenants, rather, in the market.

是的，當然，格雷格，我是彼得。因此，據我們所知，丹佛一直在努力解決少量供應量增加的問題，並繼續進行租賃。第四季市場入住率略有提升。需求一直不錯，決策過程繼續由市場中的一些租戶或潛在租戶決定。

We have seen, as Jojo just commented about Southern California in the last couple of months, an increased level of urgency and momentum from some tenants that are in the market. But we still clearly have work to do in Denver, but we feel a little bit more optimistic with what we're seeing today than we felt a good part of last year.

正如喬喬在過去幾個月對南加州的評論一樣，我們看到市場上一些租戶的緊迫感和動力增加。但我們顯然在丹佛仍有工作要做，但我們對今天所看到的情況比去年大部分時間感到更加樂觀。

Okay thanks. And then with regards to future development, which geographies do you plan on focusing on. Yeah, just stop there.

好的，謝謝。那麼關於未來的發展，您計劃重點關注哪些地區。是的，就停在那裡。

Sure, we're not going to talk about volumes, but the markets right now that we would think about new starts. I'll just go by state really Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida are the places that we would focus on next.

當然，我們不會談論數量，而是現在我們會考慮新的開端的市場。我只是按州來介紹，賓夕法尼亞州、德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州是我們下一步關注的地方。

Okay, and sorry, just one final follow up here. In terms of funding with the decrease in dispositions, how are you thinking about funding the development?

好的，抱歉，這裡只剩下最後一個跟進。在資金方面，隨著處置量的減少，您如何考慮為開發提供資金？

It's same formula as the past. We're expected to spend $220 million in ‘25 on development. Excess cash flow, sales, and borrowings on the line of credit are going to be the sources.

和過去的公式一樣。我們預計25年將花費2.2億美元用於開發。過剩現金流、銷售和信用額度借款將成為來源。

Craig Mailman, Citi.

花旗銀行的克雷格‧梅爾曼 (Craig Mailman)。

Scott, on the 1.6 million square feet of development leasing embedded in guidance, can you go through maybe how much of that would be -- a portion of that 140 basis points of lease-up opportunity versus projects that are currently under construction?

斯科特，關於指導方針中包含的 160 萬平方英尺的開發租賃，您能否介紹一下其中有多少——與目前正在建設的項目相比，這 140 個基點的租賃機會佔比是多少？

Let me do a quick calculation. I think it's going to be the vast majority of it. So Craig, the 1.6 million square feet is basically comprised of our developments placed in service, not leased. So that's already in the occupancy number. And then developments completed not in service. So those are the two pieces that make up the 1.6 million. We're not assuming any lease-up in any development completions in '25.

讓我快速計算一下。我認為這將是絕大多數。所以 Craig，這 160 萬平方英尺基本上是由我們投入使用的開發項目組成的，而不是出租的。這已經是入住人數了。然後開發完成但並未投入使用。這兩部分加起來就是 160 萬。我們不假設25年任何開發案完成時會出現租賃現象。

Okay. So that's not only helping FFO, but also helping same-store as well because that's currently a drag on NOI?

好的。那麼，這不僅有助於 FFO，也有助於同店銷售，因為這目前對 NOI 造成了拖累？

Developments placed in service, not leased, that could help same-store NOI. It just depends what the free rent assumption is. Because that's not (multiple speakers)

投入使用的開發案（而非出租的開發案）可能有助於提高同店淨營業利潤。這只取決於免租金假設是什麼。因為那不是（多位發言者）

Okay. That is helpful. And then just more broadly, I know development leasing as -- you guys had a big year this year. And you kind of alluded to maybe things getting a little bit better on the ground. But just in the context of maybe what some of your peers have been saying about demand, kind of, the trend bottoming and getting better and supporting maybe a second half '25 reacceleration of net absorption. Kind of where do you guys -- what are you guys seeing on the ground? And what's your kind of most current thinking on when an inflection point could happen?

好的。這很有幫助。從更廣泛的角度來看，我知道開發租賃——你們今年度過了豐收的一年。您暗示實際情況可能會有所改善。但是，就某些同業所說的需求而言，趨勢可能正在觸底並且會好轉，並可能支持 25 年下半年淨吸收量的重新加速。你們在哪裡──你們在地面上看到了什麼？您目前對於轉折點何時會出現有什麼看法？

I'll start with this, and then Peter and Jojo can jump in. You're kind of looking at a classic U-shape, the way we look at this, not a V-shape. So predicting how strong this rebound that you refer to is going to be is not easy. What we have seen, even though development leasing times are a bit elongated, assets are getting leased. In 2024, 863 million square foot of leases were signed across the country. And that's the third highest year in history.

我先從這個開始，然後 Peter 和 Jojo 可以加入。從我們的角度來看，它呈現的是經典的 U 形，而不是 V 形。因此，預測您所提到的反彈力度有多大並不容易。我們看到，儘管開發租賃時間有點長，但資產仍在被租賃。2024年，全國簽訂了8.63億平方英尺的租賃合約。這是史上第三高的一年。

So while we see falling rents in some markets or low rent growth in some markets, leases are getting signed and, little by little and slowly and methodically, that we always talk about tenant alternatives when we talk about markets with additional space. Those alternatives are beginning to shrink. And equally helpful to that, obviously, is the fact that the national pipeline is now shrinking dramatically and new starts are staying at pretty low levels. So hard to say, Craig, what that inflection is going to look like. We're pretty conservative on that front, but we see it coming, and we feel good about the prospects.

因此，雖然我們看到某些市場的租金下降或某些市場的租金增長緩慢，但租約正在一點一點地、緩慢地、有條不紊地簽署，當我們談論有額外空間的市場時，我們總是談論租戶的替代方案。這些替代方案正開始減少。顯然，同樣有幫助的是，全國管道正在急劇萎縮，新開工量保持在相當低的水平。克雷格，很難說這種轉變會是什麼樣子。我們在這方面相當保守，但我們預見了它的到來，並且對前景充滿信心。

Craig, it's Peter. I'll just give you two specific examples. The deal we announced in Pennsylvania. We've been working on that almost all of last year. So finally seeing some higher level of engagement. The deal we reported in Nashville with our repeat customer and the early lease up there. They're in the manufacturing business of electrical components, and they had a lot more urgency to get that done. So things are a little better, as we've said, and we're seeing higher engagement and more momentum. What we really want to see, to Peter's point, is that momentum continue to be persistent during the year.

克雷格，我是彼得。我僅舉兩個具體的例子。我們在賓州宣布的這項協議。我們幾乎去年全年都在致力於此事。因此最終看到了更高層次的參與。我們在納許維爾報告了與回頭客達成的交易以及那裡的早期租約。他們從事電子元件製造業務，因此他們迫切希望完成這項工作。正如我們所說的，情況有所好轉，我們看到了更高的參與度和更強的動力。正如彼得所說，我們真正希望看到的是，這種勢頭在今年繼續保持下去。

One last thing I'll add to that while we're on the subject of development leasing and time frames. Some of the assets that we have, as you know, are completed and in service and some are beyond the 12-month downtime. We also have leased assets like we did last year, the 1 million footer in Stockton at completion, the 540 in Nashville at roughly completion. I'm sorry, 9 months ahead of completion. And the 360 in the Philly market at completion.

當我們討論開發租賃和時間框架時，我最後要補充一點。如您所知，我們擁有的一些資產已經完工並投入使用，有些資產的停工期已超過 12 個月。我們也像去年一樣租賃了資產，斯托克頓的 100 萬英尺的資產已完工，納許維爾的 540 英尺的資產也已大致完工。抱歉，提前九個月完工。360 度全景將在費城市場正式落成。

So when you look at -- if you look at our vintages, we have to group them by vintages. That's kind of the year we've started the projects. So if you look at by vintage, going back to 2018, every vintage has leased on average, below 9 months. So it was less than 9 months of downtime.

因此，如果您查看我們的年份，我們必須按年份將它們分組。那是我們開始計畫的那一年。因此，如果以年份來看，追溯到 2018 年，每個年份的平均租賃期都低於 9 個月。因此停機時間不到 9 個月。

So some projects are simply going to take longer. Maybe it's the market they're in. Maybe it's the depth of the demand for the particular size of the asset, and some are going to happen quickly. And those time frames are as difficult to judge today as they've been in the last couple of years.

所以有些項目將會耗費更長的時間。或許這是他們所在的市場。也許是對於特定規模資產的需求深度，有些將會很快發生。如今，這些時間框架與過去幾年一樣難以判斷。

Vince Tibone, Green Street Advisors.

文斯蒂博內 (Vince Tibone)，Green Street Advisors 總裁。

Are there any large move-outs in '25 that we should be aware of? And generally, how do you think tenant retention rates could trend this year versus the '24 levels?

'25 年有哪些大型遷出事件值得我們注意嗎？總體而言，您認為今年的租戶保留率與 24 年的水平相比會如何？

Chris, do you want to take that?

克里斯，你想拿著這個嗎？

Obviously, we've talked about the move out -- 700,000 square-foot move-out in Central PA, and we're not aware of any other significant move-outs. Tenant retention last year, we were one of our highest rates in the last 3 or 4 years. We're at 77%. So we expect that number to be very similar going forward.

顯然，我們已經討論過搬遷問題——賓州中部 70 萬平方英尺的搬遷，我們不知道有任何其他重大的搬遷。去年我們的租戶保留率是過去三、四年來最高的。我們已經達到 77% 了。因此我們預計未來這一數字將非常相似。

No, that's helpful. Maybe just a quick related follow-up. How about bad debt, if you could share maybe where bad debt as a percentage of revenue came in for '24? How are you thinking about '25? Are you seeing any cracks in certain tenant categories? And any commentary on there would be great.

不，這很有幫助。也許只是一個快速的相關後續行動。壞帳怎麼樣，能否分享一下 24 年壞帳佔收入的百分比是多少？你對‘25’有什麼想法？您是否發現某些租戶類別有漏洞？任何對此的評論都是很好的。

Sure, Vince. It's Scott. Bad debt expense was $700,000 in 2024. That was 10 basis points of gross revenue, so a very, very low number. We're assuming a $1 million assumption in '25 like we have in the past several years. As far as material tenants on the watch list, we talked about boohoo. They have paid January rent, we’re expected February's rent any day based upon payment history. And keep in mind with that tenant, we do have a security deposit in the form of a letter of credit that takes care of 12 months of rent.

當然，文斯。我是史考特。2024 年壞帳費用為 700,000 美元。這是總收入的 10 個基點，因此是一個非常非常低的數字。我們假設25年的收入為100萬美元，就像過去幾年一樣。就關註名單上的實質租戶而言，我們討論了 boohoo。他們已經支付了一月份的租金，根據付款歷史，我們預計二月的租金很快就會到達。請記住，對於該租戶，我們確實有以信用證形式提供的押金，用於支付 12 個月的租金。

Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

托馬斯 (Todd Thomas)，KeyBanc 資本市場。

I just wanted to go back to the 1.6 million square feet of development leasing in the guidance, which sounds like it's mostly related to projects that are already in the in-service portfolio. Can you just comment on the 4 projects that will transition to the in-service portfolio during the first half of '25? You have a little leasing at First Park Miami, but can you provide an update on interest for the remainder of that space and the 3 Inland Empire assets? And is there anything embedded in guidance for those properties as they transition?

我只是想回到指引中的 160 萬平方英尺的開發租賃，這聽起來主要與已經在使用的投資組合中的項目有關。您能否評論一下 2025 年上半年將過渡到在役投資組合的 4 個項目？您在邁阿密第一公園 (First Park Miami) 有一些租賃，但是您能否提供該區域剩餘空間和 3 個 Inland Empire 資產的最新興趣資訊？在這些房產轉型過程中，是否有任何指導原則？

Sure. It's Jojo. Right now scheduled for in-service date of 2025 are 4 projects. 3 of the 4 is in Inland Empire and 1 is in Miami. They range from, 3 buildings, are at the 140,000 to 160,000 square-foot range and one is a 325,000 square-footer.

當然。是喬喬。目前計劃於 2025 年投入使用的項目有 4 個。其中 3 個位於內陸帝國，1 個位於邁阿密。其中 3 棟建築的面積在 140,000 至 160,000 平方英尺之間，另外一棟建築的面積為 325,000 平方英尺。

Can you just comment on the interest level for those assets and whether there's any expected leasing during the year as they transition?

您能否評論一下這些資產的利息水平，以及在過渡期間是否會出現任何預期的租賃？

Sure. Let me comment on the 3 buildings in Inland Empire, and I'll turn it over to Peter on the First Park -- building in First Park Miami. For the 3 buildings, again, like I said, the Class A, they're all in the 215 corridor, very, very state-of-the-art facilities They are looking at 155,000 feet, 160,000 street -- square feet and 325,000 square feet. In all of those projects, we're having tours and we're also responding to RFPs. In terms of leasing, basically, we've assumed that they will be leasing in the second half of this year.

當然。讓我對內陸帝國的 3 座建築發表評論，然後我會將關於邁阿密第一公園 (First Park Miami) 的建築的評論交給彼得 (Peter)。對於這 3 棟建築，就像我說的，它們都是 A 級建築，都位於 215 走廊，擁有非常最先進的設施，它們佔地 155,000 英尺、160,000 街道平方英尺和 325,000 平方英尺。在所有這些項目中，我們都在進行參觀，也在響應 RFP。在租賃方面，基本上，我們假設他們將在今年下半年進行租賃。

And then, Todd, it's Peter. For Miami, we have active RFPs out for all of the remaining space in that building.

然後，托德，這是彼得。對於邁阿密，我們已經針對該建築所有剩餘空間發出了積極的 RFP。

Okay. And then just curious if you could just provide an update if there's any sort of forecast for 2025 for market rent growth across the portfolio -- across the portfolio's markets that you're targeting or eyeing?

好的。我很好奇，您是否可以提供最新消息，對 2025 年整個投資組合（您所針對或關注的投資組合市場）的市場租金成長有任何預測嗎？

So generally speaking, we're expecting modest rent growth. Some markets will be down, some will be up 1 point or 2. So maybe call it inflation plus a point is what we're expecting this year. SoCal probably flat to down a little bit.

所以整體來說，我們預期租金將會溫和成長。有些市場會下跌，有些市場會上漲 1 點或 2 點。因此，我們今年可能預期的就是通貨膨脹加上一個點。南加州可能會持平或略有下降。

Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

布萊恩·赫克，富國銀行。

I know it's early on, but I was hoping you could talk about any change in tenant behavior you've noticed in the Southern California market or even Houston or Phoenix given the increased tariffs on China and delayed but the potential implementation on Mexico. I guess, are you seeing any hesitation to lease in those markets, or on the flip side, any pull forward of activity?

我知道現在還為時過早，但我希望您能談談考慮到對中國的關稅增加以及對墨西哥的關稅實施可能推遲，您注意到的南加州市場甚至休斯頓或鳳凰城的租戶行為是否有任何變化。我想，您是否看到這些市場對於租賃有任何猶豫，或者另一方面，有任何活動的提前？

I'm going to start with this and Jojo can jump in too. It is, like you said, at the beginning of your question, very early. I think there's a lot of chaos around this topic, the topic of tariffs. Clearly, if very large tariffs were put in place for a very long -- for a long period of time, that's a negative. But at this point, who's to say what's really going to end up being the case and for what kind of term. It could be a negotiating ploy as you've seen. It’s anyone's guess on what's going to happen with this.

我將從這個開始，Jojo 也可以加入。正如您在問題開頭所說的那樣，現在還為時過早。我認為圍繞關稅這個話題存在著很多混亂。顯然，如果長期徵收高額關稅，那將是一個負面影響。但在這一點上，誰能說出最終結果會是怎樣，以及會持續多久。如您所見，這可能是一種談判策略。對於這件事將會發生什麼，誰也說不準。

We have not seen yet any reaction to this. No one has actually brought it up in terms of the tours that we're giving and properties or conversations that we're having. People haven't stepped away on this because of this subject. So again, it's too early and too unpredictable at this point. Jojo, you want to add anything to that? You good?

我們尚未看到對此的任何反應。實際上，沒有人在我們組織的旅行、財產或對話中提起這個問題。人們並沒有因為這個話題而放棄。所以，現在再說一遍，還為時過早，而且難以預測。Jojo，你想加點東西嗎？你好嗎？

Nothing to add.

沒什麼好補充的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then second question, can you talk a little bit more about the economics on incremental development? Just some color on how you've seen construction costs trending and expectations on the cost side this year. And given the slowdown in rent growth, what effect that might have on expected yields, if any?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。第二個問題，能否進一步談談漸進式開發的經濟學？您只是想介紹今年建築成本的趨勢以及成本的預期。鑑於租金成長放緩，這對預期收益率會產生什麼影響？

Sure. This is Jojo. Well, if you look at 2024, on average, construction costs came down in the 10% range. It's primarily driven by the decrease in contractor margins and a stabilizing and slight decrease in construction materials. Going forward to '25, we're looking to flat to slightly down. I would say maybe 0% to 3% down. And yes, it has an impact on our total investment. Whatever it's -- if your land’s anywhere to 20% to 25% on your investment, of course, it's going to have a way by improving the yield slightly.

當然。這是喬喬。那麼，如果您看一下 2024 年，平均而言，建築成本會下降 10% 左右。這主要是由於承包商利潤率的下降和建築材料價格的穩定和小幅下降所致。展望25年，我們預期持平或略有下降。我認為下降幅度可能在 0% 到 3% 之間。是的，它會對我們的總投資產生影響。不管是什麼——如果你的土地投資回報率達到 20% 到 25%，當然，它會透過稍微提高收益率來發揮作用。

I'll just put some numbers around that. We talked earlier about having 15 million square feet of growth in our land holdings. Today, we can invest about $2 billion. That would pencil out to a high 6% yield. So -- and that's today, that includes today's market rents as well as our anticipated and expected cost framework for those projects, building in that reduction in some development costs. The two projects we just started are going to yield north of 7.

我只會給一些數字。我們之前談到我們的土地持有量將增加 1500 萬平方英尺。今天我們可以投資大約20億美元。這就意味著收益率高達 6%。所以 - 這就是今天的，其中包括今天的市場租金以及我們對這些項目的預期和預期成本框架，從而降低了一些開發成本。我們剛啟動的兩個專案將產生超過 7 的收益。

Rob Stevenson, Janney.

羅伯史蒂文森、詹尼。

I think you talked about it a little bit, but can you give a sort of broader overview of which of your core markets you're seeing the best operating fundamentals and tenant demand and which are the relatively weaker ones today besides Southern Cal?

我想你已經談到了這一點，但你能否更廣泛地概述一下，除了南加州之外，哪些核心市場擁有最好的營運基本面和租戶需求，哪些市場目前相對較弱？

Yes. I mean Nashville is the best market right now, vacancy is around 3%, very limited new starts. It's not so easy to get entitlements in that market. We're fortunate there to have a lot of growth opportunity. Pennsylvania is not bad. Lehigh Valley is decent. South Florida has cooled from its blue hot phase, but we're still very, very focused on South Florida.

是的。我的意思是納許維爾目前是最好的市場，空置率約為 3%，新開工率非常有限。在那個市場獲得權利並不容易。我們很幸運，那裡有很多成長機會。賓州還不錯。利哈伊谷 (Lehigh Valley) 還不錯。南佛羅裡達州已從藍熱階段冷卻下來，但我們仍然非常關注南佛羅裡達州。

Texas, so Houston and Dallas, doing very well. We're certainly looking for more land opportunities in the state of Texas and in those two markets. Of course, the right submarkets around Dallas. That's a very, very big market. Those would be the strongest markets. And aside from SoCal, I would say, while Denver is improving, it's still got some room to run. Phoenix has a lot of vacancy, but we're finding that with the product that we have on offer, we're attracting good tenant traffic and lease signings there.

德州，尤其是休士頓和達拉斯，表現非常好。我們確實在德克薩斯州和這兩個市場尋找更多的土地機會。當然，達拉斯周圍有合適的子市場。這是一個非常非常大的市場。這些將是最強勁的市場。除了南加州以外，我想說，雖然丹佛正在進步，但仍有一定的發展空間。鳳凰城有很多空屋，但我們發現，我們提供的產品可以吸引到良好的租戶流量和租約簽約量。

So being there very early and being in a great location and offering the right sized product has benefited us greatly in that market. But that's how I would summarize the, call it, the pluses and minuses.

因此，很早就進入該市場、佔據優越的地理位置並提供合適尺寸的產品使我們在該市場中受益匪淺。但這就是我對其優點和缺點的總結。

Okay. That's helpful. And then in terms of tenants today, are you seeing any better demand at certain size levels? Or is -- what demand out there is fairly widespread across the various buckets, square footage wise?

好的。這很有幫助。那麼就今天的租戶而言，您是否看到某些規模的租戶需求有所改善？或者——從平方英尺來看，各種不同類別的需求相當普遍嗎？

Rob, it's Peter. I would say small or midsize are more active, generally speaking, than larger. And as we've talked about on prior calls, that varies by market. What's small in Florida or Denver is different than what’s small or midsize in Pennsylvania, as an example. Amazon had been pretty active in a couple of markets last year. There is demand for the larger sizes, but it's not as robust as it is in the smaller, midsized today.

羅布，我是彼得。我想說，一般來說，小型或中型企業比大型企業更活躍。正如我們在之前的電話會議中談到的那樣，這因市場而異。舉例來說，佛羅裡達州或丹佛的小型房屋與賓州的小型房屋或中型房屋有所不同。去年，亞馬遜在幾個市場相當活躍。雖然對較大尺寸的產品有需求，但不如目前較小、中型產品強勁。

Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Michael Carroll。

I wanted to follow up on Blaine's question. I mean, how difficult is it to underwrite a new development start today maybe versus a few years ago? I mean, do current market rents really support those developments broadly? Or does development only work in the Pennsylvania, Florida and Texas markets where you said that you're actually interested in pursuing them?

我想繼續回答布萊恩的問題。我的意思是，與幾年前相比，今天承保一項新開發案的啟動有多困難？我的意思是，目前的市場租金真的能夠廣泛支持這些發展嗎？或者開發僅在賓夕法尼亞州、佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的市場有效，而您曾說過您實際上對這些市場感興趣？

While the state of -- the existing opportunities in those markets that you just mentioned is positive. So that's why we're focused on those markets, and underwriting new deals there is fine. It's not a problem. Projecting out which other markets, like Southern California, for example, when those markets are going to be ready is a little bit more difficult.

而您剛才提到的這些市場中現有機會的狀況是正面的。這就是我們專注於這些市場的原因，並且在那裡承銷新交易是可以的。沒問題。預測其他市場（例如南加州）何時能夠準備好則有點困難。

So in the Pennsylvania, Florida and Texas market, you don't need rents to go up or you're not underwriting rents to go up to justify those developments? At the current market rents, you can get your 7-ish percent yields that you discussed with the deals that you just broke ground recently?

那麼在賓州、佛羅裡達州和德州市場，您不需要提高租金，或者您不會承保租金上漲來證明這些發展是合理的？以目前的市場租金計算，您可以獲得您在最近剛剛破土動工的交易中討論過的 7% 左右的收益率嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. And then just last one, I guess, Peter, can you talk about what's going on with broader tenant activity? I mean, has there been any noticeable change specifically after the elections? I mean, has tenants been much more active making decisions after the elections? Or has it just been kind of steady state for you and that wasn't really a driver?

好的。然後最後一個問題，彼得，你能談談更廣泛的租戶活動進度嗎？我的意思是，選舉之後有什麼明顯的改變嗎？我的意思是，選舉之後租戶在做決定時是否更加積極了？或者對你來說這只是一種穩定狀態，而這並不是真正的驅動因素？

This isn't really a light switch topic, meaning it didn't exist on Friday, and on Monday, it does. This is more of an evolutionary thing. What we have noticed is that there is a sense that being more entrepreneurial is going to be rewarded. That means investing in growth, taking some risk, whereas prior, it's been most definitely risk off. Investing tens of millions of dollars into a new lease and equipment and product, there's a lot more confidence around the fact that that product will move.

這實際上不是一個電燈開關主題，這意味著它在星期五不存在，而在星期一存在。這更像是一種進化的事情。我們注意到，人們有一種意識，即更具創業精神的人將會獲得回報。這意味著投資成長，承擔一定風險，而此前，這絕對是規避風險的。投資數千萬美元用於新租約、設備和產品，人們對該產品的銷售更有信心。

And so we're seeing right now, the result of that is more foot traffic. We're receiving a lot more RFPs. I would say, prior to that, we were sending out more unsolicited proposals, perhaps, than we were receiving RFPs. That equation has changed. Now I want to caution, we're cautiously optimistic. We have not seen -- as Peter mentioned earlier, what we want to see is consistent and persistent development lease signings. And that is the question mark, and that's what we're keeping our eye on.

所以我們現在看到的結果是，人潮增加了。我們收到了更多的 RFP。我想說，在此之前，我們發出的未經請求的提案可能比我們收到的 RFP 還要多。那個等式已經改變。現在我想提醒一下，我們持謹慎樂觀的態度。我們沒有看到——正如彼得之前提到的，我們希望看到的是一致且持續的開發租約簽署。這就是問號，也是我們關注的。

Caitlin Burrows, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的凱特琳·伯羅斯 (Caitlin Burrows)。

You mentioned earlier that retention has been quite high and you expect it to continue, but I think a concern some people have is that some tenants have too much space, so reducing what they have. Just wondering what's your view are there tenants that have too much space that needs to be worked through? And how do you think automation could end up impacting space needs?

您之前提到保留率一直很高，並且您希望這種情況能持續下去，但我認為有些人擔心的是，有些租戶擁有的空間太多，因此減少了他們擁有的空間。只是想知道您認為是否有租戶擁有太多需要處理的空間？您認為自動化最終會對太空需求產生什麼影響？

Yes, I'll take the first part of that. So yes, the sublease space nationally is about 1.1% of existing stock. That's approximately double the long-term average. Within our own portfolio, we have some sublet space, none of which is impacting us from a revenue standpoint. We have good leases with good tenants on almost all of that space. So we'll just have to work through that over time, and we're keeping an eye on that. What was the second part of your question?

是的，我將選擇第一部分。所以是的，全國的轉租空間約佔現有庫存的 1.1％。這大約是長期平均值的兩倍。在我們自己的投資組合中，我們有一些轉租空間，從收入的角度來看，這些空間都不會對我們造成影響。幾乎所有空間我們都與優秀的租戶簽訂了良好的租約。所以我們必須隨著時間的推移解決這個問題，並且我們會密切關注這個問題。你的問題的第二部分是什麼？

Automation.

自動化。

We're not seeing -- I mean, when you look across the board in our portfolio, we don't see tenants massively investing in automation that drives their utilization of space. Of course, you have the big tenants that are heavily automated, like the large e-commerce company. So -- but that's part of their business plan for day 1. And -- but we're not seeing a sea change.

我們沒有看到——我的意思是，當你縱觀我們的投資組合時，我們沒有看到租戶大規模投資於推動其空間利用率的自動化。當然，也有一些高度自動化的大租戶，例如大型電子商務公司。所以——但這是他們第一天商業計劃的一部分。但我們並沒有看到翻天覆地的變化。

Got it. Okay. And then I think this topic came up some point in the past. But in terms of the development projects that have taken longer to lease up, do you think that's a case where reducing price would help? Or is it not really an issue of price, it's more just -- does somebody need that space or not?

知道了。好的。然後我認為這個話題在過去的某個時候出現過。但對於那些需要更長時間才能出租的開發案而言，您認為降低價格會有所幫助嗎？或者這實際上不是一個價格問題，而是一個更簡單的問題——有人是否需要這個空間？

Peter, do you want to take that?

彼得，你想拿走那個嗎？

Sure. Caitlin, I would say it's not really price. We're market sensitive. It's more about, as we've talked about on the last several calls, just the pace of decision-making and companies finally saying, okay, we need the space. You saw that in our development leasing results throughout last year, culminating in what we announced in the fourth quarter. So we just want to see more of that. It's a frustrating, for sure, that tenants aren't making a decision at the pace that we've all seen the last several years, but it's not about price. We're going to do what we need to do to lease the space, as we always have.

當然。凱特琳，我想說這不是真正的價格問題。我們對市場很敏感。正如我們在最近幾次電話會議中談到的那樣，這更多的只是決策的速度，然後公司最終會說，好吧，我們需要空間。您可以從我們去年全年的開發租賃業績中看到這一點，並在第四季度公佈了最終成果。所以我們只是想看到更多這樣的情況。確實令人沮喪的是，租戶沒有按照我們過去幾年看到的速度做出決定，但這與價格無關。我們將盡一切努力租賃空間，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣。

Nick Thillman, Baird.

尼克·蒂爾曼，貝爾德。

Maybe I wanted to touch a little bit on just the LA. wildfire impact. I know it's early days and the rebuilding efforts are just starting. But where do you think what markets are most likely to benefit of kind of that rebuilding effort? Is it the IE or is it LA County proper? Just some thoughts there would be helpful.

也許我只想稍微談談洛杉磯。野火的影響。我知道現在還為時過早，重建工作才剛開始。但是您認為哪些市場最有可能從這種重建工作中受益？它是 IE 還是洛杉磯縣本身？只是一些想法可能會有所幫助。

Yes. This is Jojo. First of all, the timing is going to be very hard to predict, depending on how the permit process, how the cleanup process and redevelopment process, design process all shakes in. But setting timing aside, I mean a lot of investment will be dedicated to new infrastructure and house construction. And if you look at what components needed for infrastructure and house construction, that would need storage of building materials and actual infrastructure that goes basically under the ground.

是的。這是喬喬。首先，時間安排很難預測，這取決於許可流程、清理流程、重建流程和設計流程的進度。但撇開時間不談，我的意思是大量投資將用於新的基礎設施和房屋建設。如果你看看基礎設施和房屋建設需要哪些組件，你會發現需要儲存建築材料和基本上位於地下的實際基礎設施。

So going forward, I think -- we think that it will necessitate outside storage of materials closer in to where the tragic fires happened. So our thought is that LA County benefit the most.

因此，展望未來，我認為——我們認為有必要在更靠近發生悲慘火災的地點建立室外材料儲存設施。因此我們認為洛杉磯縣受益最多。

That's helpful. And then just maybe touching a little bit on development, maybe on build-to-suit opportunities, have you seen any sort of increase in that activity across your markets?

這很有幫助。然後也許只是稍微談談開發，也許是關於定制建設的機會，您是否看到您所在的市場中此類活動有所增加？

Not really, particularly given that tenants have choices today on the existing inventory unless it's something really specific and unique. Certainly, there are some we were glad to pre-lease the building in Nashville 9 months ahead of completion. So in essence, that somebody who wanted some influence over the design and specifications for them. But tenants still have choices today in the market. So build-to-suit is probably less active.

事實並非如此，特別是考慮到租戶今天可以在現有庫存中進行選擇，除非是一些非常具體和獨特的東西。當然，我們很高興在竣工前 9 個月預租了納許維爾的建築。所以從本質上講，有人想要對它們的設計和規格產生一些影響。但如今租戶在市場上仍有許多選擇。因此，客製化生產可能不太活躍。

Mike Mueller, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥克·穆勒。

I know you've addressed about 60% of the '25 expirations. Looking at the remaining 40%, is there anything that stands out in terms of geography or size? Or is it kind of more of the same as to what you've leased already?

我知道您已經解決了大約 60% 的 25 個到期問題。看看剩下的 40%，在地理或規模方面有什麼突出的嗎？或者它和您已經租賃的東西差不多嗎？

Yes, it's pretty much broad-based across our makeup of our – the geography, so nothing stands on.

是的，它幾乎遍布我們的整個地理區域，因此沒有什麼是確定的。

Okay. And then, Scott, I think you mentioned about $225 million of development spend for the year. It looks like maybe half of that applies to projects that are already underway. So is there a way you can kind of ballpark what you think development starts could be for the year?

好的。然後，史考特，我想你提到了今年約 2.25 億美元的開發支出。看起來其中可能有一半適用於已經在進行的項目。那麼您能大概估算一下今年的開發開工數量嗎？

I'm looking at Peter now.

我現在正在看著彼得。

We're not going to give volume on development starts. That we have certain opportunities that we think we're going to move ahead with. But as the global economy turns and as markets change, that could change. So that's why we don't talk about volume. Talking about location is fine. And as I mentioned, Pennsylvania, Texas and Florida are the places we would go.

我們不會公佈開發開始的數量。我們擁有某些機會，我們認為我們會抓住這些機會繼續前進。但隨著全球經濟轉型和市場變化，這種情況可能會改變。這就是我們不談論數量的原因。談論位置是可以的。正如我所提到的，賓州、德州和佛羅裡達州是我們要去的地方。

Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

瑞穗的維克拉姆·馬洛特拉 (Vikram Malhotra)。

Congrats very strong execution in '24. Just maybe first one, if you can clarify the development lease-up that you've done in '24? You may have addressed it. I just wanted to get a better understanding of when this hits FFO and AFFO or cash flow in 2025 and '26. Is it mostly baked for '25? Or is this some of what you've leased in '24 actually hit next year?

恭喜您在 24 年取得了非常出色的成績。也許只是第一個問題，您能否澄清一下您在 24 年所做的開發租賃？您可能已經解決了這個問題。我只是想更了解這何時會對 2025 年和 2026 年的 FFO 和 AFFO 或現金流產生影響。它主要是為 '25 烘焙的嗎？或者這是您在 24 年租賃的部分資產實際上將在明年兌現嗎？

So if you look at the fourth quarter leasing, the 2 deals that are expected to start in '25 or the joint venture deal, I think that's first quarter, Jojo. And then Peter’s deal in Nashville is a 3Q expected start date. Everything else started in 2024.

因此，如果你看第四季度的租賃，預計於 25 年開始的兩筆交易或合資交易，我認為這是第一季，Jojo。然後彼得在納許維爾的交易預計在第三季開始。其餘一切都從 2024 年開始。

Got it. And then just in the model, as you've kind of looked at occupancy, further lease-up of the developments of 1.6 million, you also mentioned 60% of the expirations are covered. I'm just wondering, like, do you have higher than normal visibility or average visibility this year than, sort of, prior years, given all the development lease up and the 60% you mentioned or it's kind of average?

知道了。然後就在模型中，正如您所看到的，160 萬個開發項目的入住率、進一步的租賃率，您還提到 60％ 的到期率已經得到覆蓋。我只是想知道，考慮到所有的開發租賃和您提到的 60% 或平均水平，今年的可見度是否比往年更高？

It's more average. We're at a similar point with our rollovers as we always are at this time of the year. And with respect to development leasing, I wouldn't say we have any more visibility than we had last year.

它比較平均。我們目前的展期情況與每年這個時候的情況類似。就開發租賃而言，我不會說我們的知名度比去年更高。

Got it. And then just lastly, the occupancy math. Some of your peers have outlined sort of a dip in the first half, down to perhaps 94%, 94-plus percent and then an expectation of a pick back up. Can you just sort of walk through like how much of the guide is dependent sort of on a back half recovery?

知道了。最後，是佔用率的計算。您的一些同行已經描述了上半年的某種下滑趨勢，可能下降到 94%、94% 以上，然後預計會回升。您能否簡單介紹一下本指南中有多少內容依賴於後半部復原？

Yes. If you look at our occupancy that we're projecting for 2025, we're going to be down in the first and second quarter. We've talked about the 700,000 square-foot move-out in Central PA and the 4 developments that are coming in service in the first quarter and the second quarter. So we'll definitely have a pickup with occupancy in the last 2 quarters of the year.

是的。如果您查看我們預測的 2025 年入住率，您會發現第一季和第二季的入住率將會下降。我們討論了賓州中部 700,000 平方英尺的搬遷項目以及第一季和第二季投入使用的 4 個開發案。因此，今年最後兩季我們的入住率肯定會回升。

Tayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Tayo Okusanya。

Yes. Again, congrats on a really strong outlook and really strong execution in '24. I wanted to go back to Jojo's comments about Southern California. I think you mentioned that rent growth in '25 is expected to be sort of flat to maybe slightly down.

是的。再次恭喜您在24年擁有非常強勁的前景和非常強勁的執行力。我想回顧一下喬喬對南加州的評論。我記得您提到過，預計 25 年的租金成長將保持平穩甚至略有下降。

And I guess I'm trying to understand that number in the context of kind of brokers and even some of your peers talking about rental rates down anywhere from 10% to 20% on a year-over-year basis in '24 and even rental rates to be still above pre-pandemic levels. So just trying to understand that flat to down comment relative to kind of some of all the other stuff going on in Southern California.

我想從經紀人甚至一些同行的角度來理解這個數字，他們談到 24 年的租金率同比下降了 10% 到 20%，但仍然高於疫情前的水平。所以只是想理解這種從持平到下降的評論與南加州正在發生的所有其他事情的關係。

Yes. I mean, I'll start out and Jojo can take -- provide more detail, but portfolio composition matters. We all operate in several markets. And when I say we all, I mean our peers, whether public or private. Delivering the product that meets the demand has always been one of our primary focuses.

是的。我的意思是，我會開始，Jojo 可以提供更多細節，但投資組合組成很重要。我們都在多個市場開展業務。當我說我們所有人時，我指的是我們的同行，無論是公共的還是私人的。提供滿足需求的產品一直是我們的首要關注點之一。

And delivering product that's going to remain competitive in its submarket for the long term has been a key focus. So we can't create rent growth and tenants out of nowhere. But we can deliver a product that is so competitive that's amongst the first to lease. And that's why we have, maybe perhaps, a slightly different view on rent growth for our markets as others do.

而提供能夠在其子市場長期保持競爭力的產品一直是我們的關注重點。因此，我們不能無緣無故地增加租金和增加租戶。但我們可以提供極具競爭力的產品，使其成為首批租賃的產品之一。這就是為什麼我們對我們市場的租金成長的看法可能與其他人略有不同。

Brendan Lynch, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布倫丹·林奇。

Maybe to follow up on that, looking more broadly at other markets around the country. Can you talk about your market pricing assumptions that are embedded in guidance?

或許可以對此進行跟進，更廣泛地關注全國其他市場。您能談談指導中所包含的市場定價假設嗎？

We build up our budgets from the ground up, lease by lease. So it's a little bit different maybe than the question you're asking. We don't take inputs necessarily of all the economic metrics to decide that. We really go based on what the market leaders who are talking to the tenants in the market and the brokers in the market think about demand, and we match that up with the product that we have on offer. It's a little tougher to comment your question with the stats, I think, that you're looking for.

我們從頭開始，逐一制定租賃預算。所以這可能與您提出的問題略有不同。我們不一定會考慮所有經濟指標來決定這一點。我們的行動確實基於與市場租戶和經紀人交談的市場領導者對需求的看法，並將其與我們提供的產品相匹配。我認為，用您正在尋找的統計數據來評論您的問題有點困難。

Okay. That's still helpful color to understand the process. Maybe you could also talk about different levels of demand that you're seeing between different types of tenants, and in particular, 3PLs?

好的。這對於理解該過程仍然很有幫助。也許您還可以談談不同類型的租戶（尤其是 3PL）之間看到的不同層次的需求？

Sure. Peter, you want to talk about that.

當然。彼得，你想談談這個嗎？

Sure, it's Peter. I would say the activity continues to be broad-based as we've talked about for a number of quarters. 3PLs remain active. Certainly, they over leased some space over the last couple of years, but they're still very active on the prospect list. We're seeing manufacturing, autos, e-comm, food and beverage.

當然，他是彼得。我想說的是，正如我們在多個季度中討論的那樣，活動將繼續具有廣泛的基礎。第三方物流依然活躍。當然，過去幾年他們租了一些空間，但他們在潛在名單上仍然非常活躍。我們看到了製造業、汽車業、電子商務、食品和飲料業。

As we responded to Rob Stevenson's comment earlier, activity better in the smaller and midsize ranges, generally speaking, around the country, which varies by market. But it continues to be pretty broad-based. And our smaller midsize spaces, for the most part, in our existing portfolio are highly leased and re-leased fairly quickly should we have an availability.

正如我們之前對 Rob Stevenson 的評論的回應，一般來說，全國各地小型和中型汽車的活動更好，但具體情況因市場而異。但其影響仍相當廣泛。我們現有投資組合中的大多數中小型辦公空間都已出租，如果有空置，很快就會重新出租。

Ki Bin Kim, Truist.

Ki Bin Kim，Truist。

Going back to your comments about dispositions being up to $75 million. I was curious, how much of that is a function of perhaps pricing not being quite there versus after selling $2.4 billion, are we much closer to, I guess, your longer-term ideal portfolio and, perhaps, going forward, should we expect this reduced disposition level to continue?

回到您關於處置金額高達 7500 萬美元的評論。我很好奇，這在多大程度上是由於定價還不夠準確，而在出售 24 億美元之後，我們是否更接近您的長期理想投資組合，也許，展望未來，我們是否應該預期這種降低的處置水平將繼續下去？

Yes. It's basically the latter, Ki Bin. We're happy with what we have. We have some trimming we'll do. You're always going -- every year, you're going to -- I guess, I'll call it pull a GE, right? They got rid of the bottom 10% every year. We're going to always have something we'll sell. But in terms of any meaningful volume goals and targets, we don't have those anymore.

是的。基本上是後者，Ki Bin。我們對目前所擁有的一切感到滿意。我們需要進行一些修剪。你總是會 — — 每年，你都會 — — 我想，我會稱之為拉動 GE，對嗎？他們每年都會淘汰掉底層 10%。我們總是會有一些要賣的東西。但就任何有意義的數量目標和指標而言，我們不再有那些了。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Peter Baccile for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Peter Baccile 做最後發言。

Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for participating on our call today. You all have very good questions, and we appreciate that. If you have any follow-up from our call, please reach out to Art, Scott or me. And have a great weekend.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。你們都提出了非常好的問題，我們對此表示感謝。如果您對我們的通話有任何後續事宜，請聯絡 Art、Scott 或我。祝您週末愉快。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。