Forestar Group Inc (FOR) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Forestar's third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Chris Hibbetts, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations for Forestar.

早安，歡迎參加 Forestar 2026 會計年度第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 現在我很榮幸把會議交給今天的主持人：Forestar 財務與投資人關係副總裁 Chris Hibbetts。

Thank you, Jenny. Good morning, and welcome to our call to discuss Forestar's third-quarter results. Before we get started, I want to remind everyone that today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although Forestar believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different.

謝謝你，Jenny。各位早安，歡迎參加我們的電話會議，一同討論 Forestar 第三季的業績表現。在開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。雖然 Forestar 相信任何此類陳述係基於合理假設，但無法保證實際結果不會出現重大差異。

All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to Forestar on the date of this conference call and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements publicly. Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in Forestar's annual report on Form 10-K, in its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

所有前瞻性陳述均以本次電話會議當日 Forestar 可得之資訊為基礎，我們不承擔公開更新或修訂任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關可能導致業績出現重大變動之因素的更多資訊，載於 Forestar 的 Form 10-K 年度報告及其最新的 Form 10-Q 季度報告，兩者均已向美國證券交易委員會提交。

Our earnings release is on our website at investor.forestar.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q later this week. After this call, we will post an updated investor presentation to our Investor Relations site under Events and Presentations for your reference.

我們的財報新聞稿已發布於 investor.forestar.com，我們計畫於本週稍晚提交 10-Q。本次電話會議結束後，我們將在投資人關係網站的「活動與簡報」區上傳更新後的投資人簡報，供各位參考。

Now I will turn the call over to Andy Oxley, our President and CEO.

現在我將把電話會議交給我們的總裁暨執行長 Andy Oxley。

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. I'm also joined on the call today by Jim Allen, our Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Walker, our Chief Operating Officer. The Forestar team achieved solid third-quarter results with revenues of $407 million, up 4% from the prior year quarter on 3,659 lots sold.

謝謝，Chris。各位早安。今天與我一同參與電話會議的還有：我們的財務長 Jim Allen，以及營運長 Mark Walker。Forestar 團隊在第三季取得穩健成果，營收為 4.07 億美元，較去年同期成長 4%，共售出 3,659 個地塊。

Earnings per diluted share increased 8% to $0.70 and pre-tax income increased 12% to $48.7 million. Book value per share increased 10% from a year ago to $36.40 and our contracted backlog remains strong with visibility towards $2.3 billion of future revenue.

稀釋後每股盈餘成長 8% 至 0.70 美元，稅前淨利成長 12% 至 4,870 萬美元。每股帳面價值較一年前成長 10% 至 36.40 美元；我們的已簽約積壓訂單仍然強勁，對未來約 23 億美元的營收具備可見度。

Ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment continue to impact the pace of new home sales. In response, we are managing our inventory investments with discipline and flexibility, and we ended the quarter with approximately $1.1 billion of liquidity.

持續的可負擔性限制以及審慎的消費者情緒，仍在影響新屋銷售的速度。為此，我們以紀律與彈性管理存貨投資，並在季末擁有約 11 億美元的流動性。

We also reached a significant milestone this quarter, delivering our 100,000 lot since D.R. Horton made its transformative investment in Forestar in 2017. Forestar has grown to a proven scalable platform, and we couldn't be prouder of what our teams have built to get us here.

本季我們也達成一項重要里程碑：自 2017 年 D.R. Horton 對 Forestar 進行具轉型意義的投資以來，我們已交付第 100,000 個地塊。Forestar 已成長為一個經驗證、可擴展的平台，我們對團隊一路打造至今的成果感到無比自豪。

Looking ahead, we remain focused on turning our land and lot inventory efficiently, maximizing returns and consolidating market share. With a strong balance sheet, operating expertise and a diverse national platform, Forestar is well positioned to navigate market conditions and extend its leadership position in the highly fragmented lot development industry.

展望未來，我們仍將專注於高效率周轉土地與地塊存貨、最大化報酬並鞏固市占率。憑藉強健的資產負債表、營運專業能力與多元的全國性平台，Forestar 具備良好條件以因應市場環境，並在高度分散的地塊開發產業中延伸其領導地位。

We will now discuss our third-quarter financial results in more detail. Jim?

接下來我們將更詳細地說明第三季財務結果。Jim？

Thank you, Andy. In the third quarter, net income attributable to Forestar increased 9% to $35.9 million or $0.70 per diluted share compared to $32.9 million or $0.65 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Our pre-tax income increased 12% to $48.7 million compared to $43.6 million in the third quarter of last year.

謝謝你，Andy。第三季，歸屬於 Forestar 的淨利較去年同期的 3,290 萬美元（稀釋後每股 0.65 美元）成長 9% 至 3,590 萬美元（稀釋後每股 0.70 美元）。我們的稅前淨利成長 12% 至 4,870 萬美元，去年第三季為 4,360 萬美元。

And our pre-tax profit margin increased 80 basis points to 12%, from 11.2% in the prior year quarter. Revenues for the third quarter increased 4% to $407 million compared to $390.5 million in the prior year quarter. Mark?

此外，我們的稅前利潤率提高 80 個基點至 12%，去年同期為 11.2%。第三季營收成長 4% 至 4.07 億美元，去年同期為 3.905 億美元。Mark？

We sold 3,659 lots in the quarter with an average sales price of $108,800. We expect continued quarterly fluctuations in our average sales price based on the geographic and lot size mix of our delivery. Our gross profit margin for the quarter was 20.7% compared to 20.4% for the same quarter last year. Chris?

本季我們售出 3,659 個地塊，平均售價為 108,800 美元。我們預期平均售價將持續出現季度波動，取決於交付的地理區域與地塊大小組合。本季毛利率為 20.7%，去年同季為 20.4%。Chris？

In the third quarter, SG&A expense increased 2% to $38.3 million compared to $37.4 million in the prior year quarter. As a percentage of revenues, SG&A was 9.4%, down from 9.6% in the prior year quarter. Our head count declined 9% from a year ago as we remain focused on efficiently managing SG&A while maintaining strong teams across our national footprint to support future growth. We expect our headcount to remain relatively flat for the remainder of the year. Jim?

第三季，SG&A（銷售、一般及行政）費用較去年同期的 3,740 萬美元增加 2% 至 3,830 萬美元。以營收百分比計，SG&A 為 9.4%，低於去年同期的 9.6%。在我們持續專注於有效管理 SG&A、同時維持覆蓋全國版圖的強健團隊以支持未來成長之下，員工人數較一年前下降 9%。我們預期今年剩餘期間的人力規模將大致持平。Jim？

D.R. Horton is our largest and most important customer. 14% of the homes DR Horton started in the past 12 months were on a Forestar-developed lot. A mutually stated goal of one out of every three homes D.R. Horton sells to be on a lot developed by Forestar,we.

D.R. Horton 是我們最大且最重要的客戶。在過去 12 個月中，D.R. Horton 開工的住宅有 14% 位於 Forestar 開發的地塊上。雙方共同表述的目標是：D.R. Horton 每賣出三戶住宅，就有一戶位於 Forestar 開發的地塊上，我們。

Have significant opportunity to grow our business with D.R. Horton. We also continue to expand our relationships with other homebuilders, selling 289 lots or 8% of our third-quarter deliveries to 12 other customers this quarter. Mark?

在與 D.R. Horton 的合作上，仍有顯著機會擴大我們的業務。我們也持續拓展與其他建商的關係，本季向另外 12 位客戶售出 289 個地塊，占第三季交付量的 8%。Mark？

Our total opposition at June 30 was 91,700 lots of what 62,200 or 68% were owned and 29,500 or 32% were controlled through purchase contracts. 9,600 of our own lots are finished at quarter end and the majority are under contract to sell.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們的總 opposition 為 91,700 個地塊，其中 62,200 個（68%）為自有，29,500 個（32%）透過購買合約控制。季末我們自有地塊中有 9,600 個已完工，且大多數已簽約出售。

Consistent with our focus on capital efficiency, we target owning a three- to four-year supply of land and lots to manage development phases to deliver finished lots at a pace that matches demand. At quarter end, 23,500 or 38% of our owned lots are under contract to sell, $202 million of hard earnest money deposits secure these contracts, which are expected to generate approximately $2.3 billion of future revenue.

與我們對資本效率的重點一致，我們的目標是持有三到四年的土地與地塊供應，以管理開發階段，並以符合需求的速度交付完工地塊。季末，我們自有地塊中有 23,500 個（38%）已簽約出售；2.02 億美元的不可退還定金（hard earnest money deposits）為這些合約提供保障，預期將帶來約 23 億美元的未來營收。

For contracted backlog, a strong indicator of our ability to continue gaining market share in the highly fragmented lot development industry. Another 31% of our owned lots are subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton based on executed purchase and sale agreements. Chris?

就已簽約的積壓訂單而言，這是我們在高度分散的地塊開發產業中持續提升市占率能力的強力指標。我們自有地塊中另有 31% 依據已簽署的買賣協議，受制於授予 D.R. Horton 的優先要約權（right of first offer）。Chris？

Forestar's underwriting criteria for new development projects remains unchanged at a minimum of 15% pre-tax return on average inventory and a return of our initial cash investment within 36 months. During the third quarter, we invested $312 million in land and land development. Roughly 80% of our investments was for land development and 20% was for land acquisition.

Forestar 對新開發專案的承作（underwriting）標準維持不變：平均庫存的稅前報酬率至少 15%，且初始現金投資須在 36 個月內回收。第三季我們在土地與土地開發上投資了 3.12 億美元。約 80% 的投資用於土地開發，20% 用於土地收購。

Although we have moderated our land acquisition investment over the last year to more efficiently manage our inventory, our team remains disciplined, flexible and opportunistic when pursuing new land acquisition opportunities. Our current land and lot position will enable us to return to strong volume growth in future periods. We still expect to invest approximately $1.4 billion in land acquisition and development in fiscal 2026, subject to market conditions. Jim?

儘管過去一年我們已調整並降低土地收購投資，以更有效率地管理庫存，我們的團隊在追求新的土地收購機會時仍保持紀律、彈性並把握機會。我們目前的土地與地塊部位將使我們在未來期間得以回到強勁的出貨量成長。我們仍預期在 2026 會計年度於土地收購與開發方面投資約 14 億美元，惟仍視市場狀況而定。Jim？

We have significant liquidity and are using modest leverage to keep our balance sheet strong and support our growth objectives. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.1 billion of liquidity and including an unrestricted cash balance of $395 million and $670 million of available capacity on our undrawn revolving credit facility.

我們擁有充足的流動性，並以適度槓桿維持資產負債表的強健，以支持我們的成長目標。本季末我們的流動性約為 11 億美元，其中包括 3.95 億美元的非受限現金餘額，以及未動用循環信用額度中 6.70 億美元的可用額度。

Total debt at June 30 was $793.8 million with no senior note maturities in the next 12 months, and our net debt-to-capital ratio was 17.7%. We ended the quarter with $1.9 billion of stockholders' equity and our book value per share increased 10% from a year ago to $36.40.

截至 6 月 30 日的總負債為 7.938 億美元，未來 12 個月內無到期的優先票據（senior note），淨負債對資本比率為 17.7%。本季末股東權益為 19 億美元，每股帳面價值較一年前增加 10% 至 36.40 美元。

Forestar's capital structure is one of our biggest competitive advantages, and it sets us apart from other land developers. Project level land acquisition and development loans have become less available and more expensive in recent years, impacting most of our competitors who generally rely on this type of financing.

Forestar 的資本結構是我們最大的競爭優勢之一，也使我們有別於其他土地開發商。近年來，專案層級的土地收購與開發貸款取得難度提高且成本上升，影響了多數通常仰賴此類融資的競爭對手。

These loans are typically more restrictive, have floating rates and create administrative complexity, especially in a volatile rate environment. Our capital structure provides us with operational flexibility while our strong liquidity positions us to take advantage of attractive opportunities as they arise.

這些貸款通常限制較多、採浮動利率，並帶來行政管理上的複雜性，尤其在利率波動的環境下更是如此。我們的資本結構提供營運彈性，而充裕的流動性也使我們能在出現具吸引力的機會時加以把握。

Andy, I will hand it back to you for closing remarks.

Andy，我把時間交回給你做結語。

Thanks, Jim. Forestar team delivered solid results in the third quarter, including increased revenues and profits while further strengthening our balance sheet. As outlined in our press release, we are maintaining our fiscal 2026 lot delivery guidance of 14,000 to 14,500 lots, and our revenue guidance of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion.

謝謝，Jim。Forestar 團隊在第三季交出穩健成果，包括營收與獲利提升，同時進一步強化我們的資產負債表。如我們新聞稿所述，我們維持 2026 會計年度地塊交付量指引 14,000 至 14,500 個地塊，以及營收指引 16 億至 17 億美元。

Our teams have a proven track record of adjusting quickly to changes in market conditions. We closely monitor each of our markets and balance the pace and price of lot sales to maximize returns across our projects. With more than 200 active projects across our broad national footprint, we have operational flexibility to allocate capital strategically based on local demand and market dynamics.

我們的團隊在因應市場狀況變化方面具備快速調整的良好紀錄。我們密切監控各個市場，並在各專案間平衡地塊銷售的速度與價格，以最大化報酬。憑藉遍布全國的布局與超過 200 個在建專案，我們具備營運彈性，可依據在地需求與市場動態策略性配置資本。

Although home affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment are expected to remain near-term headwinds for home demand, we are confident in the long-term demand for finished lots and our ability to gain market share in highly fragmented lot development industry. Consistent execution of our strategic and operational plans, combined with constrained supply of finished lots across many of our markets, positions us well for further success. With a clear strategy, the experienced team and strong operational and financial foundation, we are optimistic about Forestar's future.

儘管住房可負擔性限制與謹慎的消費者情緒預期仍將在短期內對住宅需求形成逆風，我們對已完成地塊（finished lots）的長期需求，以及我們在高度分散的地塊開發產業中提升市占率的能力仍具信心。我們策略與營運計畫的持續落實，加上我們多個市場已完成地塊供給受限，使我們具備進一步成功的良好條件。憑藉清晰的策略、經驗豐富的團隊，以及強健的營運與財務基礎，我們對 Forestar 的未來保持樂觀。

Jenny, at this time, we will open the line for questions.

Jenny，現在我們開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Gilbert, BTIG.

（接線員指示）Ryan Gilbert，BTIG。

I was hoping you could give us an update on the competition that you're seeing in the land market from other land developers and land bankers as well? Horton talked to maybe a slower-than-expected homebuyer market in the quarter, and I'm wondering if that translated into the land market as well?

我想請你們更新一下：你們在土地市場看到來自其他土地開發商與土地銀行（land bankers）的競爭情況如何？Horton 提到本季購屋者市場可能比預期更疲弱，我想知道這是否也反映在土地市場上？

Landmark has been relatively stable. I haven't seen much change in land price. We have seen a little bit of improvement on being able to negotiate terms, for example, getting land on takedowns, getting through full entitlement and permitting so we're able to focus on shovel-ready deals.

土地市場相對穩定。我沒有看到土地價格有太大變化。我們確實看到在協商條款方面有些改善，例如以分期交割（takedowns）的方式取得土地，並完成完整的權利取得（entitlement）與許可（permitting），讓我們能專注於可立即動工（shovel-ready）的案子。

Overall, I would say we'd see a somewhat less development activity across the board in quite a few markets. But most markets are still slightly undersupplied. So we think that gives us opportunity for future growth.

整體而言，我會說在不少市場中，整體開發活動略有降溫。但多數市場仍略為供給不足。因此我們認為這為未來成長帶來機會。

Got it. Sorry, slightly undersupplied from a finished lot perspective?

了解。抱歉，你說的略為供給不足是指已完成地塊的角度嗎？

That's correct.

沒錯。

Okay. Got it. I'd appreciate any directional thoughts on 2027, just given the decline in your controlled block count. Do you think that the land position puts you in a position to grow market share in 2027?

好的。了解。鑑於你們受控地塊數量下降，我想請教你們對 2027 年的方向性看法。你們認為目前的土地部位能讓你們在 2027 年提升市占率嗎？

Yeah. Our own lot supply, we want to target that to be around three to four months of supply, today -- I'm sorry, year supply, three to four-year supply. Today, it's a little bit over just north of four. So we feel good about our own lot supply.

是的。我們自有地塊供給的目標大約是 3 到 4 年的供給量。目前略高一些，約略超過 4 年。因此我們對自有地塊供給狀況感到滿意。

We have to finish lots on the ground this year to execute. And moving into next year in terms of consolidating market share, we feel really good about our opportunity to grow our market share, not just within D.R. Horton but with other builders.

我們必須在今年把已完成地塊落地，才能執行。而展望明年、就整合市占率而言，我們對提升市占率的機會非常有信心，不僅是在 D.R. Horton 內部，也包括其他建商。

And we have a very robust pipeline of future projects. So we think we can expand in the Horton footprint as well as with some third parties.

此外，我們也有非常強勁的未來專案管線。因此我們認為可以在 Horton 的布局範圍內擴張，同時也能與部分第三方合作擴展。

Okay. Great. Then any change in the, I guess, the M&A pipeline or opportunities for growth via M&A? I'm just kind of looking at the cash balance building over the course of the year.

好的。很好。那麼在我想，併購（M&A）管線或透過併購帶來成長的機會方面，有任何變化嗎？我只是看到你們的現金餘額在一年當中持續累積。

Yeah, I think there are opportunities. We continue to see opportunities. So that's part of the reason we want to have strong liquidity is to be able to take advantage of opportunities when they arise.

是的，我認為確實有機會。我們持續看到機會。所以這也是我們希望維持強勁流動性的部分原因，好在機會出現時能夠把握。

(Operator Instructions) Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

(接線員指示) Trevor Allinson，Wolfe Research。

At times in the past, when the market has been weaker, you guys have used that as an opportunity to pick up headcount to try to help grow your share. I think here recently, including in the prepared remarks, you continue to talk about keeping your headcount flat. So I guess what I would ask, what's different this time with weaker conditions? Why are you not being more aggressive to pick up headcount like you have in past periods?

過去有些時候，當市場較疲弱時，你們會把那當作機會增加人力編制，試著擴大市占。我想最近，包括在事先準備的發言中，你們仍在談維持人力編制持平。所以我想問的是，這次在較疲弱的環境下有什麼不同？為什麼你們不像過去那幾段期間一樣，更積極地增加人力？

So we had pretty significant head count growth in '24 and the first half of '25. We intentionally moderated that in the second half of '25, have been relatively flat, slightly down this year. We will see an increase in headcount as we go into '27 as we develop out more land capabilities, particularly out West.

我們在24年以及25年上半年的人力編制成長相當顯著。我們在25年下半年刻意放緩了增員速度，今年以來相對持平、略有下降。隨著我們進入27年，因為要擴充更多土地開發能力，特別是在美國西部，我們將會看到人力編制增加。

Okay. Got you. Makes sense. Second, then, on cycle times. Can you just update us on how those are trending, maybe where those stand versus a year ago or what you would consider a normalized cycle time for you guys? And then historically, the municipalities have been frequently cited as the biggest bottleneck, are you seeing any relief there?

好的。了解。有道理。第二個問題，關於週期時間（cycle times）。你能否更新一下目前的趨勢，例如相較一年前大概在哪個水準，或你們認為正常化的週期時間應該是多少？另外，過去常提到地方政府（municipalities）是最大的瓶頸，你們在這方面有看到任何緩解嗎？

Okay. I'll talk about cycle times first. It really comes back to a couple of things. Contractor availability continues to free up, not just for (inaudible) but also we're seeing what we there are A-rated contractors we'll be able to utilize. We do manage our developments and phases.

好的。我先談週期時間。這主要回到幾個因素。承包商的可用性持續改善，不只是（聽不清楚），我們也看到一些我們可以使用的A級承包商。我們確實會管理我們的開發案與各期工程。

Cycle times over the past trailing, let's say, 36 months have come down close to six months. They settled in around 12 months. We're currently operating in a 12-month cycle time. We do think there's further opportunities for efficiencies to reduce our cycle times and our cost.

在過去約36個月的期間內，週期時間已縮短了接近六個月。目前大致穩定在約12個月。我們現在的營運週期時間是12個月。我們確實認為仍有進一步提升效率的機會，以縮短週期時間並降低成本。

And you hit the nail on the head, I think basically are complete to close in terms of governing jurisdictions, that's kind of been our bottleneck to reduce our cycle times further. But I do believe there's opportunities to reduce the cycle times as we go into the future.

而你說得很對，我認為基本上在主管機關的流程上，從完成到結案（complete to close）這一段，一直是我們進一步縮短週期時間的瓶頸。但我確實相信，隨著我們往未來推進，仍有機會降低週期時間。

Okay. Great. definitely encouraging. And maybe one more if I can. Gross margins in the quarter were at the lower end of your 21% to 23% historical range. I know there's always mix impacts. We've also seen diesel costs come up here and stay up. Were there any impacts in the quarter from diesel as well? Or is that primarily a mix impact?

好的。很好，確實令人鼓舞。如果可以的話我再問一個。本季毛利率落在你們歷史21%到23%區間的低端。我知道組合（mix）一直會有影響。我們也看到柴油成本上升並維持在高位。本季柴油是否也有造成任何影響？還是主要是組合因素？

Not really. It's primarily mix and just the environment, just a slower absorption environment. Our -- as we manage price and pace on a project-by-project basis, our margins have been kind of the lower end of our historic range over the last three or four years.

沒有太大影響。主要是組合以及整體環境，也就是去化（absorption）較慢的環境。我們——會以個別專案為單位管理價格與推進速度，因此過去三、四年我們的毛利率大致落在歷史區間的較低端。

Ryan Gilbert, BTIG.

Ryan Gilbert，BTIG。

Just a quick follow-up for me. I think Horton mentioned some relief on horizontal construction costs on the call. And I'm wondering if that's something that you're seeing as well? And to the extent you are seeing some cost relief, when you would expect that to flow through the income statement?

我這邊簡單追問一下。我想Horton在電話會議上提到水平工程（horizontal construction）成本有些緩解。我想知道你們是否也有看到同樣情況？以及如果你們確實看到一些成本緩解，你們預期何時會反映到損益表上？

Our cost of stabilize, I would tell you, over the past 12 months. I mean we're seeing some reductions in some categories, and we're seeing some increases in others. But I would say relative to direct costs, they're pretty stable. We haven't seen a big decrease in cost.

就我們的成本趨勢而言，我會說在過去12個月。我們在某些類別看到一些下降，在其他類別則看到上升。但我會說相對於直接成本，它們相當穩定。我們沒有看到成本大幅下降。

Thank you very much. Well, we appear to have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I will now hand back over to Andy for any closing comments.

非常感謝。看起來我們已經到了問答環節的尾聲。我現在把時間交回給Andy，請他做結語。

Thank you, Jenny, and thank you to everyone on the Forestar team for your dedication and commitment. Let's stay focused, flexible and opportunistic as we continue to strengthen our market position. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again to share our fourth-quarter and full-year results on Thursday, October 29.

謝謝你，Jenny，也謝謝Forestar團隊每一位的投入與承諾。在我們持續強化市場地位的同時，讓我們保持專注、彈性並把握機會。感謝大家今天撥冗參與電話會議，我們期待在10月29日（週四）再次與各位通話，分享我們第四季與全年業績。

Thank you very much. This does conclude today's event. You may disconnect at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation.

非常感謝。今天的活動到此結束。您現在可以中斷連線，祝您有美好的一天。感謝您的參與。