Forestar Group Inc (FOR) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Forestar's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Ashley Dagley, Corporate Securities Council for Forestar.

下午好，歡迎參加 Forestar 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在將把電話轉給 Forestar 公司證券委員會 Ashley Dagley。

Thank you, John. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the call to discuss Forestar's second quarter results. Thank you for joining us. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although Forestar believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to Forestar on the date of this conference call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements publicly.

謝謝你，約翰。大家下午好，歡迎來電討論Forestar第二季度業績。感謝您加入我們。在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。儘管 Forestar 認為任何此類陳述都基於合理的假設，但不能保證實際結果不會有重大差異。所有前瞻性陳述均基於 Forestar 在本次電話會議之日獲得的信息，我們不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in Forestar's annual report on Form 10-K and its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致業績發生重大變化的因素的更多信息包含在 Forestar 的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格最新季度報告中，這兩份報告均已向美國證券交易委員會提交。

Our earnings release is on our website at investor.forestar.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q early next week. After this call, we will post an updated investor presentation to our Investor Relations site in event -- under Events & Presentations for your reference.

我們的收益發佈在我們的網站 Investor.forestar.com 上，我們計劃下周初提交 10 季度財報。此次電話會議之後，我們將在活動中的投資者關係網站上發布更新的投資者演示文稿 - 在“活動和演示文稿”下，供您參考。

Now I will turn the call over to Dan Bartok, our CEO.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Dan Bartok。

Thanks, Ashley, and we appreciate you filling in for Katie this quarter. Good afternoon, everyone. As always, we appreciate your interest in Forestar and taking the time to discuss our second quarter results. I am pleased to be joined on the call today by Jim Allen, our Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Walker, our Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝阿什利，我們非常感謝您本季度代替凱蒂。大家下午好。一如既往，我們感謝您對 Forestar 的關注並抽出時間討論我們第二季度的業績。我很高興今天邀請我們的首席財務官吉姆·艾倫 (Jim Allen) 參加電話會議。和我們的首席運營官馬克·沃克。

Our second quarter results continue to demonstrate the strength and resiliency of Forestar's unique business model. Forestar generated $301.5 million of consolidated revenues, a gross profit margin of 18.5%, a pretax profit margin of 11.9% and a return on equity for the trailing 12 months of 11.7%. Despite a transitioning housing market, sticky inflation and challenging comparisons to our exceptional quarter achieved a year ago, our operational discipline, manufacturing mentality and cost management initiatives helped us maintain double-digit pretax profit margins and return on equity. Thank you to all of our valued team members for your efforts.

我們第二季度的業績繼續證明了 Forestar 獨特商業模式的實力和彈性。 Forestar 的綜合收入為 3.015 億美元，毛利率為 18.5%，稅前利潤率為 11.9%，過去 12 個月的股本回報率為 11.7%。儘管房地產市場正在轉型，通脹居高不下，與一年前的出色季度相比也充滿挑戰，但我們的運營紀律、製造心態和成本管理舉措幫助我們保持了兩位數的稅前利潤率和股本回報率。感謝我們所有尊貴的團隊成員的努力。

Over the past 5 years, Forestar has undergone a remarkable transformation, becoming the largest pure-play residential lot manufacturing company in the United States. We have built a platform and assembled a team that is flexible and focused. We have further strengthened our balance sheet and look to be opportunistic in ways that will continue to build shareholder value. Our strategic relationship with D.R. Horton, America's largest builder, has helped us capture market share quickly, and we are well positioned to expand our customer base.

在過去的五年裡，Forestar 經歷了顯著的轉型，成為美國最大的純住宅用地製造公司。我們搭建了一個平台，組建了一支靈活、專注的團隊。我們進一步強化了資產負債表，並尋求機會主義方式，繼續創造股東價值。我們與 D.R. 的戰略關係美國最大的建築商霍頓幫助我們快速佔領市場份額，並且我們有能力擴大我們的客戶群。

While builders have started to increase new home starts, from our perspective, there is still uncertainty about how the rest of the year unfolds. We are continuously monitoring the market and remain flexible to quickly adjust to build their demand. What sets Forestar apart from peers is our strong capital structure, our operational flexibility and a strong customer relationship, and most importantly, an exceptional team to execute our plans. We will continue to navigate the short-term volatility while investing wisely for our future growth and striving to maximize returns.

儘管建築商已開始增加新屋開工，但從我們的角度來看，今年剩餘時間的情況仍存在不確定性。我們持續監控市場並保持靈活性，以快速調整以滿足他們的需求。 Forestar 與同行的區別在於我們強大的資本結構、運營靈活性和牢固的客戶關係，最重要的是，我們有一支出色的團隊來執行我們的計劃。我們將繼續應對短期波動，同時為未來增長進行明智投資並努力實現回報最大化。

Forestar is better positioned than ever to serve current and new customers and to continue to consolidate market share.

Forestar 比以往任何時候都更有能力為現有和新客戶提供服務，並繼續鞏固市場份額。

Jim will now discuss our second quarter financial results in more detail.

吉姆現在將更詳細地討論我們第二季度的財務業績。

Thank you, Dan. In the second quarter, net income attributable to Forestar was $26.9 million or $0.54 per diluted share compared to $47.8 million or $0.96 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Consolidated revenues for the quarter totaled $301.5 million, which included $7.5 million in revenue from deferred development projects and $41.1 million in tract sales and other revenue, compared to $421.6 million of consolidated revenues during the second quarter of 2022.

謝謝你，丹。第二季度，Forestar 淨利潤為 2690 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.54 美元，而去年同期為 4780 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.96 美元。該季度的合併收入總計 3.015 億美元，其中包括來自延期開發項目的 750 萬美元收入以及 4110 萬美元的土地銷售和其他收入，而 2022 年第二季度的合併收入為 4.216 億美元。

We sold 2,979 lots during the quarter, with an average sales price of $84,700. We expect continued quarterly fluctuations in our average sales price based on the geographic location and lot size mix of our deliveries.

本季度我們售出了 2,979 件拍品，平均售價為 84,700 美元。我們預計，根據地理位置和交貨批量組合，平均銷售價格將持續出現季度波動。

Our pretax income for the quarter totaled $35.9 million compared to $63.2 million in the second quarter of last year, and our pretax profit margin was 11.9%. Our gross profit was $55.9 million compared to $87.5 million in the prior year quarter, and our gross profit margin declined 230 basis points to 18.5%. We incurred $900,000 of option deposits and due diligence write-offs in the quarter. Additionally, we recorded noncash real estate impairment charges totaling $19.4 million, which reduced our gross profit margin by 650 basis points.

我們本季度的稅前收入總計 3590 萬美元，而去年第二季度的稅前收入為 6320 萬美元，稅前利潤率為 11.9%。我們的毛利潤為 5590 萬美元，而去年同期為 8750 萬美元，毛利率下降 230 個基點至 18.5%。本季度我們發生了 900,000 美元的期權存款和盡職調查沖銷。此外，我們記錄的非現金房地產減值費用總計 1,940 萬美元，這使我們的毛利率降低了 650 個基點。

The impairment charges were related to cost overruns in 2 projects that encountered adverse development conditions, 1 in Florida and 1 in Texas. Excluding those impairments, our gross profit margin would have been 25%. Gross margin was positively impacted by a legacy commercial tract sale and, to a lesser extent, increased margins on lot sales from development projects sourced by Forestar.

減值費用與 2 個遇到不利開發條件的項目的成本超支有關，其中 1 個位於佛羅里達州，1 個位於德克薩斯州。排除這些減值，我們的毛利率將為 25%。毛利率受到傳統商業土地銷售的積極影響，並且在較小程度上，來自 Forestar 採購的開發項目的地塊銷售利潤增加。

In the second quarter, SG&A expense was $22 million or 7.3% as a percentage of revenues compared to $24.3 million in the prior year quarter. This was our fourth consecutive quarter reducing absolute dollars of SG&A expense. We will continue to focus on controlling our SG&A costs, while ensuring that our infrastructure supports our business. Mark?

第二季度，SG&A 費用為 2200 萬美元，佔收入的 7.3%，而去年同期為 2430 萬美元。這是我們連續第四個季度減少 SG&A 支出的絕對金額。我們將繼續專注於控制 SG&A 成本，同時確保我們的基礎設施支持我們的業務。標記？

As for current market conditions, we continue to see improved contractor availability and pricing with front-end trades. Materials like concrete and transformers are still challenging to procure in certain markets. However, our teams are relentless problem solvers, and they continue to navigate this environment exceptionally well. We will continue to be proactive and work with our trade partners to control development costs. Our unique operating model and capital structure allows us to adjust the pace of development based on market conditions. We remain intensely focused on managing our development phases as we strive to deliver finished lots at a pace that matches market demand, consistent with our emphasis on capital efficiency.

就當前的市場狀況而言，我們繼續看到承包商的可用性和前端交易的定價有所改善。在某些市場上採購混凝土和變壓器等材料仍然具有挑戰性。然而，我們的團隊是不懈的問題解決者，他們繼續出色地應對這種環境。我們將繼續積極主動，與貿易夥伴合作控制開發成本。我們獨特的運營模式和資本結構使我們能夠根據市場情況調整髮展節奏。我們仍然高度關注管理我們的開發階段，努力以符合市場需求的速度交付成品，這與我們對資本效率的重視相一致。

We evaluate each project in the surrounding market conditions to determine the appropriate pricing and sales pace to maximize returns. We remain focused on developing lots for homes at affordable price point demonstrated by our average sales price of roughly $85,000. Dan?

我們評估每個項目的周邊市場條件，以確定適當的定價和銷售節奏，以實現回報最大化。我們仍然專注於開發價格實惠的住宅用地，我們的平均售價約為 85,000 美元。擔？

D.R. Horton is our most important and largest customer. However, we look to continue expanding our relationships with other homebuilders and have a goal of selling 30% of our lots to customers other than D.R. Horton over the intermediate term. 11% of our second quarter deliveries, or 313 lots were sold to other customers, which includes 147 lots that were sold to a lot maker, who expects to sell those lots to D.R. Horton at a future date. 18% of our deliveries in the prior year quarter, or 1,017 lots were sold to third-party customers, including the sale of 787 deferred development lots.

博士霍頓是我們最重要和最大的客戶。然而，我們希望繼續擴大與其他住宅建築商的關係，並目標是將 30% 的土地出售給 D.R. 以外的客戶。霍頓在中期。我們第二季度交付量的 11%，即 313 件拍品出售給其他客戶，其中包括 147 件出售給拍品製造商的拍品，後者預計將這些拍品出售給 D.R.霍頓在未來的某一天。我們上一季度交付的 18%（即 1,017 塊地塊）出售給了第三方客戶，其中包括銷售了 787 塊延期開發地塊。

In addition to growing by expanding our customer base, we have significant runway to grow our market share within D.R. Horton. Our mutually stated goal is for 1 of every 3 homes that D.R. Horton sells to be built on a lot developed by Forestar. Jim?

除了通過擴大客戶群來實現增長之外，我們還有重要的途徑來擴大 D.R. 的市場份額。霍頓。我們共同製定的目標是每 3 個家庭中就有 1 個 D.R.霍頓出售的土地是在Forestar開發的土地上建造的。吉姆？

Forestar's underwriting criteria for new development projects includes a minimum 15% pretax return on average inventory and a return of the initial cash investment within 36 months. During the second quarter, we invested approximately $185 million in land and land development, of which $170 million was for land development and $15 million was for land. Our investment this quarter was down 45% compared to the prior year quarter.

Forestar 對新開發項目的承保標準包括平均庫存至少 15% 的稅前回報率以及 36 個月內收回初始現金投資。第二季度，我們在土地和土地開發方面投資了約1.85億美元，其中1.7億美元用於土地開發，1500萬美元用於土地。我們本季度的投資比去年同期下降了 45%。

As land prices increased across most of our footprint, we proactively started to reduce our land investment in 2021 in anticipation of a slower housing market. We shifted our focus to the phased development of land that we already own. Despite elongated development time lines, inflationary pressures and slowing demand, our inventory balance has grown only 1% compared to a year ago, further demonstrating disciplined and strategic inventory management. Mark?

隨著我們大部分業務範圍內的土地價格上漲，我們預計房地產市場將放緩，因此在 2021 年開始主動減少土地投資。我們將重點轉向了我們已經擁有的土地的分階段開發。儘管開發時間延長、通脹壓力和需求放緩，我們的庫存餘額與一年前相比僅增長了 1%，進一步證明了嚴格的戰略性庫存管理。標記？

We continue to work with land sellers to extend closing dates, and, in certain cases, we have opted to terminate contracts. Forestar's lot position at March 31 was 76,400 lots, of which 57,800 lots are owned and 18,600 lots are controlled through purchase contracts. The majority of our owned lots were placed under contract to purchase from land sellers before 2021, resulting in an attractive cost basis. Our lot position decreased by 5,900 lots, or 7% sequentially, and by 20,100 lots or 21% year-over-year. At quarter end, we had 9,100 finished lots on hand. We are continuing to target a 3- to 4-year owned inventory of land and lots.

我們繼續與土地賣家合作以延長交割日期，並且在某些情況下，我們選擇終止合同。截至3月31日，Forestar的持倉量為76,400手，其中自有57,800手，通過購買合同控制18,600手。我們擁有的大部分土地都是在 2021 年之前根據合同從土地賣家那裡購買的，因此成本基礎具有吸引力。持倉量環比減少 5,900 手，即 7%，同比減少 20,100 手，即 21%。截至季度末，我們手頭有 9,100 件成品。我們繼續以擁有 3 至 4 年的土地和地塊庫存為目標。

26% of our own lots are under contract to sell, representing approximately $1.3 billion of future revenue. These contracts have $130 million of hard earnest money deposits associated with them. Another 30% of our own lots are subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton based on executed purchase and sale agreements. Jim?

我們自有土地的 26% 已簽訂出售合同，相當於未來收入約 13 億美元。這些合同有 1.3 億美元與之相關的硬性保證金存款。我們自己的另外 30% 的土地享有 D.R. 的優先報價權。霍頓基於已執行的購買和銷售協議。吉姆？

We are retaining significant liquidity and using modest leverage to keep our balance sheet strong, while maintaining our disciplined approach when investing capital. We ended the quarter with over $650 million of liquidity, including approximately $285 million of unrestricted cash and $365 million of available capacity on our undrawn revolving credit facility. Total debt at March 31 was $707 million, with no senior note maturities until fiscal 2026. Our net debt to capital ratio at March 31 was 25.2%, down from 29.9% in the prior year period. We ended the quarter with $1.25 billion of stockholders' equity, and our book value per share increased to $25.01, up 12% from a year ago.

我們保留了大量的流動性，並使用適度的槓桿來保持資產負債表的強勁，同時在投資資本時保持嚴格的方法。截至本季度末，我們擁有超過 6.5 億美元的流動資金，其中包括約 2.85 億美元的非限制性現金和 3.65 億美元的未提取循環信貸額度的可用容量。截至 3 月 31 日的總債務為 7.07 億美元，在 2026 財年之前沒有優先票據到期。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的淨債務與資本比率為 25.2%，低於上年同期的 29.9%。本季度結束時，我們的股東權益為 12.5 億美元，每股賬面價值增至 25.01 美元，比去年同期增長 12%。

Forestar's capital structure is one of our biggest competitive advantages, and it sets us apart from other land developers. Other developers generally use project-level development loans, which are typically more restrictive, have floating rates and create administrative complexity, particularly in a rising rate environment. Our bonds provide us with operational flexibility and fixed cost debt, while our strong liquidity allows us to take advantage of attractive opportunities when they arise.

Forestar 的資本結構是我們最大的競爭優勢之一，它使我們有別於其他土地開發商。其他開發商通常使用項目級開發貸款，這些貸款通常更具限制性，具有浮動利率並造成管理複雜性，特別是在利率上升的環境下。我們的債券為我們提供了運營靈活性和固定成本債務，而我們強大的流動性使我們能夠在有吸引力的機會出現時抓住它們。

Consistent with our last earnings call, and as a result of the current market uncertainties, we are not providing guidance for fiscal 2023 at this time. We have been very strategic and disciplined, and we are well positioned to react quickly to changes in market conditions.

與我們上次的財報電話會議一致，並且由於當前市場的不確定性，我們目前不會提供 2023 財年的指導。我們一直非常具有戰略性和紀律性，並且我們有能力對市場狀況的變化做出快速反應。

Dan, I will hand it back to you for closing remarks.

丹，我會把它交還給你做結束語。

Thanks, Jim. Overall, I am pleased with the Forestar team's execution during a transitioning housing market. We have made remarkable progress building Forestar's platform, and our commitment to operational excellence enabled us to deliver strong margins and maintain competitive returns. I'm even more pleased with how well we are positioned and the strength of our balance sheet. We are the market leader in a highly fragmented and undercapitalized industry and remain confident about Forestar's ability to continue to execute well and consolidate market share.

謝謝，吉姆。總的來說，我對 Forestar 團隊在房地產市場轉型期間的執行力感到滿意。我們在建設 Forestar 平台方面取得了顯著進展，我們對卓越運營的承諾使我們能夠提供豐厚的利潤並保持有競爭力的回報。我對我們的定位和資產負債表的實力感到更加滿意。我們是高度分散且資本不足的行業的市場領導者，並且對 Forestar 繼續良好執行和鞏固市場份額的能力充滿信心。

Forestar is well positioned to be the lot supplier of choice to homebuilders due to our broad geographic footprint, attractive land positions, strong balance sheet, and most importantly, our ability to execute.

由於我們廣泛的地理足跡、有吸引力的土地位置、強大的資產負債表，以及最重要的是我們的執行能力，Forestar 處於成為住宅建築商首選的地塊供應商的有利位置。

Looking forward, we continue to believe that D.R. Horton, and many other homebuilders will shift their focus towards buying finished lots from third-party developers instead of self-developing, and conversations with third-party builders have increased in recent months. While mortgage rates are down from peak levels seen in late 2022, and home price increases have moderated, home affordability remains a challenge for consumers. Forecasts expect 2023 U.S. single-family housing starts to decline between a range of approximately 15% to 30% compared to 2022.

展望未來，我們仍然相信 D.R.霍頓和許多其他住宅建築商將把重點轉向從第三方開發商購買成品地塊，而不是自行開發，近幾個月來，與第三方建築商的對話有所增加。儘管抵押貸款利率較 2022 年底的峰值水平有所下降，且房價漲幅有所放緩，但住房負擔能力仍然是消費者面臨的挑戰。預測預計 2023 年美國單戶住宅開工量將比 2022 年下降約 15% 至 30%。

While we cannot control the macroeconomic backdrop, or directly influence the demand for housing, we can and will stay focused strengthening our platform and increasing operational efficiencies to drive future growth. We are closely monitoring each market, submarket and project as we strive to balance pace and price to maximize returns. Our goals have not changed. We still intend to double our market share to 5% over the intermediate term. We believe our market share gains will accelerate as land development financing remains expensive and less available for the majority of our competitors.

雖然我們無法控制宏觀經濟背景，或直接影響住房需求，但我們可以並將繼續專注於加強我們的平台並提高運營效率，以推動未來的增長。我們正在密切關注每個市場、子市場和項目，努力平衡節奏和價格，以實現回報最大化。我們的目標沒有改變。我們仍打算在中期將市場份額翻倍至 5%。我們相信，由於土地開發融資仍然昂貴且大多數競爭對手的融資渠道較少，我們的市場份額增長將會加速。

We have a track record of solid execution and are focused on the long-term opportunity before us. When appropriate, we will leverage our platform and strong balance sheet to capitalize on opportunities that build shareholder value. With our experienced team that has successfully managed for prior market cycles, we are well equipped to navigate the current environment and further strengthen our industry-leading position.

我們擁有紮實的執行記錄，並專注於擺在我們面前的長期機會。在適當的時候，我們將利用我們的平台和強大的資產負債表來抓住創造股東價值的機會。憑藉我們經驗豐富的團隊在之前的市場週期中取得的成功，我們有能力應對當前的環境並進一步鞏固我們的行業領先地位。

John, at this time, we'll open up the line for questions.

約翰，此時我們將開放提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Carl Reichardt with BTIG.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

So Dan, the commercial banking world has been rolled quite a bit since we last chatted. And while the builders, the large publics are capitalized, not dissimilarly to you, I'm guessing a lot of small local land development peers of yours are fairly reliant on regional banks for secured financing. And I'm wondering whether or not you're noting, to this point, any disruption -- additional disruption in their ability to get financing, and whether or not that's an opportunity for you? And if so, what kind of opportunity could it be?

丹，自從我們上次聊天以來，商業銀行界已經發生了很大的變化。雖然建築商和廣大公眾都擁有資本，與您沒有什麼不同，但我猜您的許多小型當地土地開發同行相當依賴區域銀行來獲得擔保融資。我想知道到目前為止，您是否注意到任何干擾——他們獲得融資的能力受到額外干擾，這對您來說是否是一個機會？如果是的話，這會是一個什麼樣的機會呢？

Well, we are hearing about problems in getting financing. The banks are clearly tightening up some of their lending standards and shying a little bit away from A&D financing. So I think that does present some opportunities for us. We continue to look for those opportunities. And as we said in the remarks, that's really how we positioned ourselves. We have a really strong balance sheet and to take advantage of those opportunities when they arise. So we look forward to this year.

嗯，我們聽說了融資方面的問題。銀行顯然正在收緊一些貸款標準，並稍微迴避航空航天與發展融資。所以我認為這確實為我們提供了一些機會。我們將繼續尋找這些機會。正如我們在評論中所說，這就是我們對自己的定位。我們擁有非常強大的資產負債表，並在這些機會出現時充分利用它們。所以我們對今年充滿期待。

Okay. And then you've said before the goal of trying to get return of cash on your deals 36 months after initial investment. I'm curious if you look back on the transactions you have completed over the course of your life running the company, what percentage of your deals have you actually achieved that goal of getting your cash out 36 months from initial investment?

好的。您之前也說過，我們的目標是在初始投資後 36 個月內爭取獲得交易現金回報。我很好奇，如果您回顧一下自己經營公司期間完成的交易，有多少交易真正實現了從初始投資 36 個月內收回現金的目標？

Well, I don't know that I have that number in my head, Carl. But I would say, on average, we're probably doing better than 36 months just based on our returns that we've been achieving and our inventory turns. Other than the last couple of quarters, when obviously, velocity has slowed up, we were exceeding projections in our inventory turns. So I -- overall, I feel really good about us hitting that 36 months.

好吧，我不知道我腦子裡有這個數字，卡爾。但我想說，平均而言，僅根據我們已實現的回報和庫存周轉率，我們的表現可能會好於 36 個月。除了過去幾個季度，速度明顯放緩之外，我們的庫存周轉率超出了預測。所以我——總的來說，我對我們能達到這 36 個月感到非常滿意。

Okay. And then just if I can squeeze one more in. We talked about difficulty with concrete, with transformers, which we know about. But I think this is really more for Mark. But if we look at availability of trades, just the folks, how would things now compare to what you saw pre-COVID? Are we back to pre-COVID levels of availability? Or we still have a ways to go before we get there in terms of subcontractors that you're -- who have the capacity to work with you?

好的。然後，如果我能再擠進去一個的話。我們討論了混凝土和變壓器的困難，這些都是我們所知道的。但我認為這對馬克來說確實更重要。但是，如果我們只關注交易的可用性，那麼現在的情況與新冠疫情之前的情況相比會如何？我們是否回到了新冠疫情之前的可用性水平？或者說，在我們找到有能力與您合作的分包商之前，我們還有很長的路要走？

Yes, Carl, I think contract availability is definitely freeing up. I don't think we're back to pre-COVID availability yet. I think some of those contractors in the past, let's call it, 2 quarters, were essentially finishing work on development. So I think that we're starting to see some pricing consideration on front end, part of our business as well as contractor availability freeing up. So we feel good about the opportunity of the contractors coming back to the market as well as being able to see some type of pricing incentives. We have seen costs stabilize.

是的，卡爾，我認為合同的可用性肯定會釋放。我認為我們還沒有回到新冠疫情之前的狀態。我認為過去的一些承包商，我們稱之為兩個季度，基本上已經完成了開發工作。因此，我認為我們開始看到前端的一些定價考慮，我們業務的一部分以及承包商可用性的釋放。因此，我們對承包商重返市場的機會以及能夠看到某種類型的定價激勵措施感到滿意。我們已經看到成本穩定下來。

The next question comes from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的杜魯門帕特森。

Historically, whenever I look at you all, you've been able to ramp kind of the back half of the year lot deliveries versus the first half. And perhaps a part of that was you all were in growth mode. But given the current better-than-expected demand environment with the homebuilders, do you think that's still a likely scenario to play out this year? Or are there other items to consider, builders having a larger land bank or even your own internal development pipeline?

從歷史上看，每當我觀察你們所有人時，你們都能夠在下半年比上半年增加交付量。也許其中一部分原因是你們都處於成長模式。但考慮到目前房屋建築商的需求環境好於預期，您認為今年仍有可能出現這種情況嗎？或者是否還有其他需要考慮的事項，建築商擁有更大的土地儲備，甚至是您自己的內部開發管道？

Yes. I don't know if I can answer the likely part of that. But what I could tell you is that we've positioned our inventory in a way to ramp up. And we've got over 9,000 finished lots on the ground today. And with the lots that we have under development, we have been working clearly over the last 6 months and probably even last year of staging lots at various phases of development. So we've got lots that have been graded. So kind of got that piece behind us. We got lots where we put pipe in the ground and halted. So it's kind of easier to deliver a lot much quicker than the normal first phase cycle. So I think we're positioned to step on the gas well. And in fact, we -- because of the strength we're seeing, we are -- we're no longer covering the break. We're kind of stepping on the gas pedal gently and starting to ramp up development again.

是的。我不知道我是否能回答其中可能的部分。但我可以告訴你的是，我們已經以增加庫存的方式配置了庫存。今天我們已經有 9,000 多塊成品地塊上場。對於我們正在開發的地塊，我們在過去 6 個月甚至可能是去年的各個開發階段都在明確地進行分期工作。所以我們有很多已經評分的東西。就這樣，我們已經把那部分拋在了身後。我們有很多地方把管道埋在地下然後停下來。因此，與正常的第一階段週期相比，交付速度要容易得多。所以我認為我們已經做好了踏上氣井的準備。事實上，我們——由於我們看到的實力，我們——我們不再彌補這一突破。我們輕輕踩下油門，開始再次加速開發。

So again, we're -- and it really is on a project-by-project basis. What's the lot inventory out there, how is the builder doing with sales pace, how are they doing with starts pace and trying to make sure that we got lots in front of the builder in every one of our projects.

再說一遍，我們確實是在逐個項目的基礎上進行的。那裡的地塊庫存是多少，建築商的銷售速度如何，他們的開工速度如何，並努力確保我們在每個項目中都在建築商面前獲得了地塊。

Perfect. And then you mentioned previously that some smaller private developers, you've been hearing about financing tightening, if you will. But are you actually seeing any land price relief yet or distressed deals come into the market? And I understand that it likely varies across geographies. Just any color on specific markets to call out?

完美的。然後您之前提到，如果您願意的話，您已經聽說過一些規模較小的私人開發商關於融資緊縮的消息。但您實際上是否看到任何土地價格下降或不良交易進入市場？我知道這可能因地區而異。特定市場上有任何顏色可供選擇嗎？

I can't say that we're really seeing big discounts on land prices yet. We're definitely seeing availability. The builders have dropped a lot of contracts over the last year. So deals that maybe we looked at and got our bid on before, we're seeing back again and kind of reengaging with sellers. As far as them getting pricing at big discounts, I think we're able to get them at maybe what we may have offered a year ago versus what we got outbid on, but we're not really seeing the big discounts yet. And you know what, we may not. I mean if the market really does continue to recover the way it is. We may not see those huge discounts that we're hoping for.

我還不能說我們真的看到了土地價格的大幅折扣。我們肯定會看到可用性。去年，建築商放棄了很多合同。因此，我們之前可能看過並競標過的交易，我們會再次回來並與賣家重新接觸。至於他們以大幅折扣定價，我認為我們能夠以我們一年前提供的價格與我們出價更高的價格獲得它們，但我們還沒有真正看到大幅折扣。你知道嗎，我們可能不會。我的意思是，如果市場真的繼續像現在這樣復甦的話。我們可能看不到我們希望的那些巨大折扣。

The next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的安東尼·佩蒂納里。

This is Asher Sohnen on for Anthony. ASP per lot fell mid-single digits quarter-over-quarter. I just wonder, is that a function of just sort of the inherent lumpiness of your business? Or is that a result of lot prices starting to follow home prices downwards?

我是阿舍爾·索南 (Asher Sohnen) 替補安東尼。每批次平均售價環比下降中個位數。我只是想知道，這是否只是您業務固有的混亂性的結果？或者這是地塊價格開始跟隨房價下跌的結果？

No, it's really just due to mix, the geographic and lot size mix from quarter-to-quarter.

不，這實際上只是由於混合，每個季度的地理和批量大小的混合。

Right. Perfect. That's helpful. It's sort of in line with what I was thinking, but then sort of on the gross margin side, with the sequential decline in gross margins also really a result of mix? And then if so, how should we think about kind of the gross margin mix/cadence or trajectory in the second half of the fiscal year?

正確的。完美的。這很有幫助。這有點符合我的想法，但在毛利率方面，毛利率的連續下降真的也是混合的結果嗎？如果是這樣，我們應該如何考慮本財年下半年的毛利率組合/節奏或軌跡？

Well, the -- our gross margin was obviously impacted by the 2 impairments that we took this quarter. So while we reported 18.5%, the 650-basis-point impact from the impairment. So if you add those back, it's closer to 25%. We did have -- and also, we had on the positive side, a legacy commercial tract with very high margin during the quarter. So kind of exclude both of those things, our kind of normalized margin for the quarter was really between 22% and 23%.

嗯，我們的毛利率顯然受到了本季度我們採取的兩次減值的影響。因此，雖然我們報告了 18.5%，但減值影響卻有 650 個基點。因此，如果將這些加回來，則接近 25%。我們確實擁有——而且，從積極的一面來看，我們擁有一個在本季度利潤率非常高的傳統商業區。因此，排除這兩件事，我們本季度的標準化利潤率實際上在 22% 到 23% 之間。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is from Mike Rehaut with JPMorgan .

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

Wardlaw on for Mike. You guys mentioned as you've gone through this banking crisis and the private developers have been seeing financing tie in, moving forward in a scenario in which we go into a mild recession, do you guys see yourself still and kind of before from being able to take over some of those projects despite the environment worsening? Or would it be something where you'd have to kind of maintain standard sidelines and evaluate?

沃德勞替補邁克。你們提到，當你們經歷了這場銀行業危機，而私人開發商一直在看到融資聯繫，在我們進入溫和衰退的情況下向前邁進時，你們是否認為自己仍然能夠做到這一點？儘管環境惡化，仍要接手其中一些項目？或者你必須保持標準的場外觀察並進行評估？

Well, as we see those opportunities, we are underwriting and engaging and trying to see if there's a deal there that hits our metrics. So we're not standing on the sidelines. We are actively looking forward and engaging on opportunities as they arise.

好吧，當我們看到這些機會時，我們正在承銷和參與，並試圖看看是否有符合我們指標的交易。所以我們不會袖手旁觀。我們積極期待並抓住出現的機會。

Got it. Great. And then in terms of -- you touched on a little bit earlier. In terms of pricing, kind of on a regional basis, has there been any difference in trends from last quarter to this quarter? And where do you envision that moving forward as the year progresses?

知道了。偉大的。然後就——你之前提到過。就定價而言，按地區劃分，上季度與本季度的趨勢有什麼不同嗎？隨著時間的推移，您預計會在哪些方面取得進展？

Pricing in terms of ASP or development goals.

根據 ASP 或開發目標定價。

Yes, in terms of ASP.

是的，就 ASP 而言。

Yes. I think our ASP is pretty stable. I mean, again, as Jim said, it's going to move quarter-to-quarter based off the size and different types. But we think at the moment, we feel like the ASP is going to be pretty stable for the rest of the year.

是的。我認為我們的 ASP 相當穩定。我的意思是，正如吉姆所說，它將根據規模和不同類型逐季度變化。但我們目前認為，今年剩餘時間內平均售價將相當穩定。

(Operator Instructions) Looks like we have no further questions in queue. I'd now like to turn the floor back to Dan Bartok for any closing remarks.

（操作員說明）看起來我們隊列中沒有其他問題了。現在我想請丹·巴托克（Dan Bartok）發表結束語。

Thank you, John. And thank you to everyone on the Forestar team for your focus and hard work. I'm proud of the results the team achieved this quarter. We will stay disciplined, flexible and opportunistic as we continue to consolidate market share in fiscal 2023. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again in July to share our third quarter results. Thank you.

謝謝你，約翰。感謝 Forestar 團隊中每個人的專注和辛勤工作。我對團隊本季度取得的成果感到自豪。在 2023 財年繼續鞏固市場份額的過程中，我們將保持紀律、靈活和機會主義。我們感謝大家今天參加電話會議，並期待在 7 月份再次與您交談，分享我們的第三季度業績。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，此時您可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。