Fabrinet (FN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Welcome to Fabrinet Financial Results Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

午安.歡迎參加 Fabrinet 2023 財年第四季和年度財務業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Garo Toomajanian, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Garo Toomajanian。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Fabrinet's financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023, which ended June 30, 2023.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論 Fabrinet 截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日的 2023 年第四季度和財年的財務和營運業績。

With me on the call today are Seamus Grady, Chief Executive Officer; and Csaba Sverha, Chief Financial Officer. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on the Investors section of our website located at investor.fabrinet.com.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有執行長 Seamus Grady；和財務長 Csaba Sverha。本次電話會議正在進行網路直播，重播可在我們網站的「投資者」部分（網址為 investor.fabrinet.com）上找到。

During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the Investors Section of our website for important information including our earnings press release and investor presentation, which include our GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation.

在本次電話會議中，我們將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱我們網站的投資者部分以獲取重要信息，包括我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹，其中包括我們的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的對帳。

In addition, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements about the future financial performance of the company. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These statements reflect our opinions only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to revise them in light of new information or future events, except as required by law. For a description of the risk factors that may affect our results, please refer to our recent SEC filings in particular, the section captioned Risk Factors in our Form 10-Q filed on May 9, 2023.

此外，今天的討論將包含有關公司未來財務表現的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與管理階層目前的預期有重大差異。這些聲明僅反映我們截至本簡報發布之日的觀點，除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔根據新資訊或未來事件修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能影響我們業績的風險因素的描述，請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，特別是我們於 2023 年 5 月 9 日提交的 10-Q 表中標題為「風險因素」的部分。

We will begin the call with remarks from Seamus and Csaba followed by time for questions.

我們將以 Seamus 和 Csaba 的演講開始電話會議，然後是提問時間。

I would now like to turn the call over to Fabrinet's CEO, Seamus Grady. Seamus?

現在我想將電話轉給 Fabrinet 的執行長 Seamus Grady。西莫斯？

Thank you, Garo. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our call today.

謝謝你，Garo。大家下午好，感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。

Our fourth quarter financial performance exceeded our guidance for both revenue and earnings per share. Revenue of $655.9 million grew 12% from a year ago. We continued to generate double-digit operating margins, which helped produce non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.86 in the quarter.

我們第四季的財務表現超出了我們對營收和每股盈餘的預期。營收 6.559 億美元，較上年同期成長 12%。我們繼續實現兩位數的營業利潤率，這有助於本季實現非公認會計準則每股收益 1.86 美元。

Our financial results for the year reflect our ability to grow and execute through supply headwinds that we experienced early in the year and the inventory adjustments that we encountered in the second half of the year. Revenue of over $2.6 billion increased 17% year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded more than 50 basis points to 10.8% for the year, and we generated record non-GAAP earnings per share of $7.67, an increase of 25% from fiscal 2022 as we continue to demonstrate strong execution.

我們今年的財務表現反映了我們克服年初遇到的供應阻力和下半年遇到的庫存調整而實現成長和執行的能力。營收超過 26 億美元，年增 17%。本年度非公認會計準則營業利潤率擴大了 50 多個基點，達到 10.8%，並且我們創造了創紀錄的非公認會計準則每股收益 7.67 美元，較 2022 財年增長 25%，這得益於我們繼續展現出的強勁執行力。

Looking at the fourth quarter in more detail. Revenue was essentially flat sequentially for optical communications. Within optical communications, telecom revenue saw a sizable decrease as a result of inventory digestion at our customers and their customers. The decline in telecom revenue was offset by record revenue growth in datacom on both a year-over-year and sequential basis. In fact, datacom revenue more than doubled from a year ago and grew more than 50% sequentially. This datacom growth was primarily driven by an 800-gig AI data center transceiver program for one of our customers.

更詳細地了解第四季。光通訊業務收入與上一季基本持平。在光通訊領域，由於我們的客戶及其客戶的庫存消化，電信收入大幅下降。電信收入的下降被數據通訊收入的年比和環比創紀錄的成長所抵消。事實上，數據通訊收入比一年前成長了一倍多，季增超過 50%。資料通訊的成長主要得益於我們為一位客戶提供的 800 千兆 AI 資料中心收發器計畫。

In our nonoptical communications business, revenue increased almost 25% from a year ago, but declined slightly sequentially. Looking to the first quarter and beyond, we expect the near-term inventory correction that our customers are experiencing to persist. However, we are confident that the very strong datacom performance we saw in the fourth quarter will continue to largely offset these inventory-related headwinds in our fiscal first quarter. In fact, we are very optimistic about our overall market position, including the potential for continued growth in AI-related programs as we look ahead.

在我們的非光通訊業務中，營收比去年同期成長了近25％，但環比略有下降。展望第一季及以後，我們預期客戶正在經歷的近期庫存調整將持續下去。然而，我們相信，第四季度數據通訊業務的強勁表現將繼續在很大程度上抵消第一財季與庫存相關的不利因素。事實上，我們對我們的整體市場地位非常樂觀，包括展望未來人工智慧相關項目持續成長的潛力。

In summary, our solid fourth quarter performance contributed to record results for the full fiscal year. We are excited about our strong industry position and are confident that we can continue to deliver excellent financial results in the coming year.

總而言之，我們第四季的穩健表現為整個財年創紀錄的業績做出了貢獻。我們對自己強大的產業地位感到興奮，並有信心在來年繼續取得優異的財務表現。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Csaba for additional financial details on our fourth quarter and fiscal 2023 and our guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2024. Csaba?

現在，我想將電話轉給 Csaba，以了解有關我們 2023 財年第四季度和 2024 財年第一季的更多財務細節以及我們對 2024 財年第一季的指導。 Csaba？

Thank you, Seamus, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，西莫斯，大家下午好。

Revenue and EPS were above our guidance ranges in the fourth quarter. Revenue was $655.9 million, up 12% from a year ago and down 1% from the third quarter. The strong performance fell to the bottom line, resulting in non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.86. For the full year, revenue was $2.645 billion, an increase of 17% from the prior year.

第四季的營收和每股盈餘高於我們的預期範圍。營收為 6.559 億美元，較去年同期成長 12%，較第三季下降 1%。強勁的業績跌至底線，導致非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.86 美元。全年營收為26.45億美元，較上年成長17%。

In fiscal 2023, we had four customers that each contributed 10% or more to revenue. Cisco contributed 16% of revenue followed by Lumentum at 15%; NVIDIA at 13%; and Infinera at 12%. Our top 10 customers together made up 84% of revenue and included a diverse range of customers in telecom, datacom, automotive and industrial lasers markets.

在 2023 財年，我們有四位客戶，每位客戶的收入貢獻率為 10% 或更多。思科貢獻了 16% 的收入，其次是 Lumentum，佔 15%； NVIDIA 為 13%； Infinera 的市佔率為 12%。我們的前十大客戶合計佔了我們收入的 84%，其中包括電信、數據通訊、汽車和工業雷射市場等各個領域的客戶。

Looking at revenue in more detail. Optical communications revenue was $502.1 million, up 8% from a year ago and essentially flat with Q3. Within optical, telecom revenue was $309.6 million, which was down 17% from a year ago and 19% from the third quarter. This decrease was primarily due to inventory adjustments in the industry. On the other hand, datacom saw tremendous growth to the largest sequential and year-over-year revenue increase in our history. Datacom revenue in the fourth quarter was a record $192.5 million. This represents growth of 107% from a year ago and an increase of 57% from the third quarter. The biggest contributor to our datacom growth was an 800-gig program for AI applications.

更詳細地了解收入。光通訊營收為5.021億美元，年增8%，與第三季基本持平。光纖業務中，電信收入為 3.096 億美元，較去年同期下降 17%，較第三季下降 19%。這一下降主要是由於行業庫存調整。另一方面，數據通訊業務實現了巨大的成長，實現了我們歷史上最大的連續和同比增長收入。第四季數據通訊收入創下1.925億美元的紀錄。這比去年同期成長了 107%，比第三季成長了 57%。對我們數據通訊成長貢獻最大的是一個用於人工智慧應用的 800 千兆程式。

By technology, silicon photonics revenue of $88.1 million, declined 19% sequentially due to the inventory adjustments we discussed. By speed, revenue from products rated 400-gig and faster grew to a new record of $266.8 million, up 49% from a year ago and up 21% from Q3. Revenue from 100-gig programs was $96 million, down 32% from a year ago and 14% from Q3. As we anticipated, revenue from 100-gig products continued to decline due to inventory digestion and that 400-gig and faster products gained momentum.

按技術劃分，矽光子學收入為 8,810 萬美元，由於我們討論過的庫存調整，季減 19%。以速度計算，400G 及更快產品的營收成長至 2.668 億美元的新高，比去年同期成長 49%，比第三季成長 21%。 100G 專案的營收為 9,600 萬美元，比去年同期下降 32%，比第三季下降 14%。正如我們預期的那樣，由於庫存消化，100G 產品的收入持續下降，而 400G 及更快的產品則發展勢頭強勁。

Revenue from non-speed related products was $120 million or 24% of optical communications revenue. Nonoptical communications revenue was $153.8 million, up 25% from a year ago, but down 5% from our record third quarter and representing 23% of total revenue.

非速度相關產品的收入為 1.2 億美元，佔光通訊收入的 24%。非光通訊收入為 1.538 億美元，比去年同期成長 25%，但比創紀錄的第三季下降 5%，佔總營收的 23%。

Automotive revenue continues to be in the same range as the prior two quarters, reflecting improved component availability. Automotive revenue of $92.9 million was up 66% from a year ago, but down 1% from Q3. Industrial laser revenue was $28 million, down 10% from Q3. Other nonoptical communications revenue was $32.9 million, up 10% from a year ago, but down 12% from Q3.

汽車收入繼續與前兩個季度保持在同一範圍內，反映出零件供應的改善。汽車業務收入為 9,290 萬美元，比去年同期成長 66%，但比第三季下降 1%。工業雷射收入為 2,800 萬美元，較第三季下降 10%。其他非光通訊收入為 3,290 萬美元，比去年同期成長 10%，但比第三季下降 12%。

As I discussed the details of our P&L, expense and profitability metrics provided are on a non-GAAP basis unless otherwise noted. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our earnings press release and investor presentation, which you can find in the Investor Relations section of our website.

正如我所討論的我們的損益表細節，所提供的費用和盈利指標均基於非 GAAP 基礎，除非另有說明。我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹中包含了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的對賬，您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Gross margin in the quarter was 12.8%. As anticipated, gross margin declined about 30 basis points from Q3 due to foreign exchange fluctuations and our currency hedging program. Operating expenses in the quarter were $14.9 million or 2.3% of revenue, which was slightly higher than anticipated due to some onetime items and year-end adjustments. This produced operating income of $69 million, representing an operating margin of 10.5%. We benefited from an increase in interest income, which was $4 million as well as a gain of $1.9 million from foreign currency asset and liability revaluations at the end of the quarter. Effective GAAP tax rate was 9.4% in the fourth quarter, deflecting year-end adjustments. For the year, our effective GAAP tax rate was 4.7%, and we anticipate that our tax rate will remain in the mid-single digit in fiscal 2024.

本季毛利率為12.8%。正如預期的那樣，由於外匯波動和我們的貨幣對沖計劃，毛利率較第三季下降了約 30 個基點。本季營運費用為 1,490 萬美元，佔營收的 2.3%，由於一些一次性項目和年終調整，略高於預期。這產生了 6,900 萬美元的營業收入，營業利潤率為 10.5%。我們受惠於利息收入的增加，本季末利息收入為 400 萬美元，外幣資產和負債重估收益為 190 萬美元。第四季有效 GAAP 稅率為 9.4%，抵銷了年末調整的影響。本年度，我們的有效 GAAP 稅率為 4.7%，我們預期 2024 財年的稅率將維持在中個位數。

Non-GAAP net income was $68.4 million or $1.86 per diluted share and above our guidance range. On a GAAP basis, net income was $1.65 per diluted share. For the full fiscal year 2023, operating margins were 10.8%, an increase of 50 basis points from the prior year. Non-GAAP net income was a record $7.67 per diluted share, an increase of 25% from a year ago. As in fiscal 2022, EPS growth significantly outpaced revenue growth.

非公認會計準則淨收入為 6,840 萬美元，即每股 1.86 美元，高於我們的預期範圍。根據 GAAP 計算，每股淨收入為 1.65 美元。 2023財年全年營業利益率為10.8%，較前一年增加50個基點。非公認會計準則淨收入達到創紀錄的每股 7.67 美元，比去年同期成長 25%。與 2022 財年一樣，每股盈餘成長明顯超過營收成長。

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow statements. At the end of the fourth quarter, cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments were $550.5 million, up $11.7 million from the end of the third quarter. Operating cash flow was a quarterly record of $71.1 million with CapEx of $17.9 million, free cash flow was $53.2 million, also a quarterly record. For the full year, we generated record operating cash flow of $213.3 million and a record free cash flow of $152 million.

轉向資產負債表和現金流量表。第四季末，現金、現金等價物、受限現金及短期投資為5.505億美元，較第三季末增加1,170萬美元。經營現金流創季度新高，達到 7,110 萬美元，其中資本支出為 1,790 萬美元，自由現金流為 5,320 萬美元，也創季度新高。全年我們創造了創紀錄的 2.133 億美元營運現金流和創紀錄的 1.52 億美元自由現金流。

We were active with our share repurchase program in the fourth quarter. We took advantage of favorable market conditions to repurchase over 400,000 shares at an average price of $94.78 for a total cash outlay of $38.4 million. For the full year, we repurchased approximately 488,000 shares for a total cash outlay of $47.6 million, reflecting our commitment to return capital and drive value to shareholders. As a result, $52.4 million remained in our share repurchase authorization at the end of fiscal 2023. Since then, our board has authorized an additional $47.6 million for repurchases, resulting in $100 million currently available for repurchases.

我們在第四季積極實施股票回購計畫。我們利用有利的市場條件以平均 94.78 美元的價格回購了超過 400,000 股，總現金支出為 3,840 萬美元。全年我們回購了約 488,000 股，總現金支出為 4,760 萬美元，體現了我們回報資本和為股東創造價值的承諾。因此，截至 2023 財年末，我們的股票回購授權金額仍為 5,240 萬美元。此後，董事會批准額外回購 4,760 萬美元，目前可供回購的金額為 1 億美元。

Now I will turn to our guidance for the first quarter. We expect inventory adjustments at our customers and their customers to continue into the first quarter. These effects will be seen primarily in our telecom revenue. We believe that strength in new high data rate datacom programs for AI applications will largely offset the impact of these inventory adjustments. We expect automotive and industrial laser revenue to be relatively flat. We are, therefore, anticipating the total revenue in the first quarter will be moderately higher than the fourth quarter. We anticipate revenue to be between $650 million and $670 million.

現在我將談談我們對第一季的指導。我們預計我們的客戶及其客戶的庫存調整將持續到第一季。這些影響將主要體現在我們的電信收入上。我們相信，針對人工智慧應用的新型高數據速率數據通訊程式的優勢將在很大程度上抵消這些庫存調整的影響。我們預計汽車和工業雷射的收入將相對持平。因此，我們預計第一季的總收入將略高於第四季。我們預計營收將在 6.5 億美元至 6.7 億美元之間。

From a profitability perspective, in the first quarter, we expect seasonal near-term pressure on gross margins due to our annual merit increases. As in prior years, we expect to continue executing well and to deliver improving efficiencies as we work our way through the year. With year-end adjustments to operating expenses behind us, we expect operating expenses to return to the 2% range. Taking these factors into account, we anticipate non-GAAP net income to be in the range of $1.83 to $1.90 per diluted share.

從獲利能力的角度來看，在第一季度，由於我們的年度績效工資成長，我們預計毛利率將在短期內面臨季節性壓力。與往年一樣，我們期望在全年的工作中繼續保持良好的執行力並提高效率。隨著年底對營運費用的調整，我們預計營運費用將回到 2% 的範圍內。考慮到這些因素，我們預計非公認會計準則淨收入將在每股攤薄收益 1.83 美元至 1.90 美元之間。

In summary, we exceeded our fourth quarter guidance by successfully navigating through some unusual industry dynamics. While our business has been negatively impacted by inventory absorption, new programs have largely offset these headwinds, enabling us to deliver healthy results as we continue to focus on extending our track record of strong execution.

總而言之，我們成功應對了一些不尋常的產業動態，超越了第四季的預期。雖然我們的業務受到庫存吸收的負面影響，但新計劃在很大程度上抵消了這些不利因素，使我們能夠取得健康的業績，同時繼續專注於延續我們強勁執行的記錄。

Operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.

接線員，我們現在可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Alex Henderson with Needham.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Needham 的 Alex Henderson。

I know you've had a really great quarter here and a good solid guide in the September quarter. But looking at the news flow out of virtually every OEM customer out there, whether that be 20-some-odd percent decline at F5, whether that be sharp declines at Juniper, whether that be a 37% decline in their service provider business at Cisco, whether it be ADTRAN, I mean, literally across the board, there's been a dozen companies and across every single one of them, they've given some pretty weak guidance. And I know that you guys lock in 90 days in advance because of the 8- to 12-week production window, so while the September quarter is a nice relief from that bad news, it seems like a lot of that bad news came in the June and July time frame, and therefore, might be less representative in the September quarter.

我知道你們本季表現非常出色， 9 月的業績指引也十分穩健。但從幾乎所有 OEM 客戶傳出的消息來看，無論是 F5 的 20% 左右的下滑，還是 Juniper 的大幅下滑，還是思科服務提供商業務的 37% 下滑，還是 ADTRAN，我的意思是，實際上，有十幾家公司都給出了相當薄弱的指導。我知道你們因為 8 到 12 週的生產窗口而提前 90 天鎖定了目標，所以雖然 9 月份的季度可以緩解這些壞消息，但似乎很多壞消息都出現在 6 月和 7 月期間，因此，9 月份季度的代表性可能較低。

I also know you don't like to give guidance for a quarter out, but clearly, this is an unusual situation, and this situation does require us to ask, can you give us any sense of what's going on in the December time frame based on what you've seen of late?

我也知道您不喜歡給出一個季度的指導，但顯然，這是一種不尋常的情況，這種情況確實需要我們問一下，您能否根據您最近看到的情況，告訴我們 12 月份的時間範圍內會發生什麼？

Alex, yes, a couple of things I would say. We believe the -- let's say, the inventory digestion headwinds and the industry headwinds that really everyone is experiencing, that is factored into our September quarter guide. If you look at our overall business, if you look at our Q4 results, our telecom business is down, primarily driven by inventory digestion and our datacom business is up nicely, primarily driven by significant growth in AI transceiver, let's call it, AI transceiver business. So we don't feel like we're missing something in the September guide. We think it's representative -- I'll put it this way, Alex, it's representative of the business that we have, and all we can do really is deal with what's in front of us. We have 13 weeks rolling forecast from our customers. We guide one quarter at a time, as you rightly point out. But essentially, what we're seeing going on, if you were to distill it down into a kind of a short snapshot. Our datacom business is up strongly. Our telecom business is down because of inventory digestion, but we think that will come back. So therefore, when the...

亞歷克斯，是的，我想說幾件事。我們相信，庫存消化阻力和每個人都在經歷的行業阻力都已計入我們的九月季度指南中。如果你看一下我們的整體業務，如果你看一下我們的第四季度業績，我們的電信業務下滑，主要是由於庫存消化，而我們的數據通信業務則良好增長，主要是由於人工智能收發器的顯著增長，我們稱之為人工智能收發器業務。所以我們並不覺得九月份的指南遺漏了什麼。我們認為它具有代表性——亞歷克斯，我會這樣說，它代表了我們的業務，我們真正能做的就是處理好擺在我們面前的問題。我們有來自客戶的 13 週滾動預測。正如您正確指出的那樣，我們每次只指導一個季度。但本質上，如果你把我們看到的情況提煉成一種簡短的快照。我們的數據通訊業務強勁成長。由於庫存消化，我們的電信業務下滑，但我們認為會恢復。因此，當...

Could you talk a little bit about the capacity availability for the datacom piece? That's a pretty steep ramp on a year-over-year basis, going from essentially zero to a very large number in AI. What does the slope look like in terms of your ability to continue that ramp in terms of capacity availability?

您能否談談數據通訊部分的容量可用性？與去年同期相比，這是一個相當陡峭的成長，從人工智慧領域的基本上為零到非常大的數字。就容量可用性而言，您繼續保持這種上升趨勢的能力如何？

Yes. So we have ample capacity, Alex. As you know, we recently opened the 1 million square foot building 9 facility in Chonburi, So we have ample capacity, and we have lots of room to expand and build more buildings as needed. The ramp is steep, but that's what we do, that's one of the services we provide is that kind of burst capacity when the customer has a very large ramp, a very steep ramp, one of the services we provide is the ability to make sure we're not the pacing item. There's lots of other, let's say, pacing items always, but we have to make sure we're not the pacing item. So we're very focused on that, Alex, and we're very confident.

是的。所以我們的容量就夠了，亞歷克斯。如您所知，我們最近在春武里府開設了 100 萬平方英尺的 9 號建築設施，因此我們擁有充足的產能，並且有足夠的空間根據需要進行擴建和建造更多建築。坡道很陡，但這就是我們所做的，這是我們提供的服務之一，當客戶有一個非常大的坡道，一個非常陡的坡道時，這種突發容量，我們提供的服務之一就是確保我們不是起搏器的能力。還有很多其他的，比如說，節奏項目總是有的，但我們必須確保我們不是節奏項目。所以我們非常關注這一點，亞歷克斯，我們非常有信心。

Totally understand, Seamus. But then you must have some visibility in terms of testing equipment in other line capacity that the customer needs to install in order to get it in, which is the gating factor to ramping that datacom.

完全理解，西莫斯。但是，您必須對客戶需要安裝的其他線路容量的測試設備有一定的了解，這是提升數據通訊能力的關鍵因素。

That's correct. We do, but it wouldn't really be for us to speak to that, Alex.

沒錯。是的，但是我們實際上並不適合談論這個，亞歷克斯。

Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

This is Joe Cardoso on for Samik Chatterjee. My first question is just on the inventory digestion that you're seeing in the telecom industry. I guess kind of just given your relationships with your customers and your experience in the industry, is there any visibility at this point in time in terms of the longevity of this digestion cycle that we're going through, like I think historically, some of the folks have pointed to like a 2-quarter digestion, is that lining up to how you guys are thinking about it at this current time? Any color you can provide about -- around that, it would be helpful. And then I have a quick follow-up.

這是喬‧卡多索 (Joe Cardoso)，取代薩米克‧查特吉 (Samik Chatterjee)。我的第一個問題是關於電信業的庫存消化情況。我想，考慮到您與客戶的關係以及您在行業中的經驗，就我們正在經歷的這個消化週期的持續時間而言，目前是否有任何可見性，就像我認為從歷史上看，有些人指出像兩個季度的消化一樣，這是否與您目前的想法一致？如果您能提供關於此問題的任何顏色，那將會很有幫助。然後我有一個快速的後續問題。

So inventory digestion, it's a difficult one to call, and it's quite difficult for us to distinguish between the specific causes, let's say, of changes in order patterns or demand from our customers and from their customers. We have returned to getting 13 weeks committed orders from our customers, and we're not really seeing the longer-term visibility that we had during the supply chain crisis. So our customers are back to normal 13-week order patterns, but they don't necessarily tell us why the order size is what it is, if you follow me. And while everyone is talking about inventory digestion, it's not really possible for us to tell what is inventory digestion, and what is the change in the demand -- in the underlying demand.

因此，庫存消化是一個很難稱呼的問題，我們很難區分具體原因，比如說，訂單模式的變化或我​​們客戶及其客戶的需求的變化。我們又重新獲得了來自客戶的 13 週承諾訂單，但我們並沒有真正看到供應鏈危機期間所具有的長期可見性。因此，我們的客戶恢復了正常的 13 週訂單模式，但他們不一定會告訴我們訂單規模為何如此，如果你明白我的意思的話。雖然大家都在談論庫存消化，但我們實際上無法分辨什麼是庫存消化，以及需求的變化——潛在需求的變化。

And secondly, the timing of the inventory digestion is quite difficult for us to be precise about. We hear the same, I suppose the same industry observations that others have made that it seems to be a two quarter -- the timing of this seems to be about two quarters, and that as we get towards the end of the calendar year, we should start to see order patterns come back to normal in the early part of calendar 2024. We just don't know. And I think we'll have to just wait and see like everybody else. But that's what we're hearing. But until we have the purchase orders, we're reluctant to kind of call it at this point.

其次，我們很難準確掌握庫存消化的具體時間。我們聽到了同樣的聲音，我想其他人也做出了同樣的行業觀察，即這似乎是兩個季度——這個時間似乎是大約兩個季度，而且隨著我們接近日曆年的結束，我們應該開始看到訂單模式在 2024 年初恢復正常。我們只是不知道。我認為我們也只能像其他人一樣拭目以待。但這就是我們所聽到的。但在我們收到採購訂單之前，我們還不願意就此做出決定。

Got it. I appreciate it, Seamus. I guess my follow-up is just around the 800-gig, and maybe you guys should just call it the AI opportunity for you guys in datacom. Obviously, you did -- you're doing tremendously well with the current program that you won. I'm just curious like what is the opportunity for you guys to win an additional program beyond the current customer that you're in? Do you have any visibility around it? Is that opportunity materializing in any way? Just curious to hear your thoughts around expanding beyond just this current customer to perhaps a different supplier?

知道了。我很感激，謝默斯。我想我的後續關注點就在 800Gig 左右，也許你們應該稱之為數據通訊領域的 AI 機會。顯然，你做到了——你在當前贏得的計劃中表現非常出色。我只是好奇，除了現有客戶之外，你們還有哪些機會贏得額外的項目？你能看到周圍嗎？這個機會會以某種方式實現嗎？我只是好奇想聽聽您對除了現有客戶之外再擴展到其他供應商的想法？

Yes. So we're not -- first of all, we're not going to break out if you like the AI program itself because it's -- right now, as you rightly point out, it's coming from one customer. We -- really we'll let them speak to what's going on in that business. What we can say is that, that particular program is ramping very fast and has obviously become a meaningful contributor to our revenue and our growth rates and has really helped us to absorb the decline in the telecom business. The timing couldn't have been better, really. But we also believe we're very much in the early days of this program and this opportunity, very, very much in the early days. We're really just a couple of quarters into this of what we believe, as we understand, it will be a very long cycle and a very long trend. So we're looking forward to expanding, let's say, beyond -- yes, definitely beyond one customer, but also to multiple programs with the customer base that we have currently. So nothing really to announce at this point, but it does seem to represent a very significant opportunity, and we're very excited about it.

是的。所以我們不會——首先，如果你喜歡人工智慧程式本身，我們不會突破它，因為它——現在，正如你正確指出的那樣，它來自一位客戶。我們——實際上我們會讓他們講述這個行業正在發生的事情。我們可以說的是，這個特定的項目正在快速發展，顯然已經成為我們收入和成長率的重要貢獻者，並且確實幫助我們吸收了電信業務的下滑。確實，時機再好不過了。但我們也相信，這個計畫和這個機會都還處於早期階段。我們實際上只經歷了幾個季度，但我們認為，這將是一個非常長的周期和非常長的趨勢。因此，我們期待擴大規模，比方說，超越——是的，肯定超越一個客戶，而且還要擴展到我們目前擁有的客戶群的多個項目。所以目前還沒有什麼可以宣布的，但它似乎代表著一個非常重要的機會，我們對此感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Savageaux with Northland Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Tim Savageaux。

Congrats on the quarter. You -- I don't know if I missed it, but in terms of the guide, which is kind of flattish overall, although clearly better than might have been feared. Do you expect the trends that you saw in the fourth quarter to continue in terms of a significant decline in telecom and continued strong increase in datacom, or do you expect that to kind of maybe flatten out a little bit? And I have a follow-up.

恭喜本季取得佳績。你——我不知道我是否錯過了，但就指南而言，總體來說有點平淡，但顯然比人們擔心的要好。您是否預期第四季看到的電信業務大幅下滑、數據通訊業務持續強勁成長的趨勢會持續下去，還是說這種趨勢可能會趨於平緩？我還有一個後續問題。

Tim, this is Csaba. Yes, we are expecting a pretty similar pattern in our Q1. I pointed out that we are anticipating telecom to be down sequentially in Q1, and we are anticipating datacom to be up. So the trends haven't really changed quarter-on-quarter. And we also said that auto and laser, we are anticipating to be flat. So telecom down, datacom up and flat auto and laser.

提姆，這是 Csaba。是的，我們預期第一季的模式非常相似。我指出，我們預計電信業務在第一季將環比下滑，而數據通訊業務將環比上升。因此，趨勢實際上並沒有發生季度環比變化。我們也表示，我們預計自動和雷射將會持平。因此，電信下降，數據通訊上升，平板自動和雷射上升。

Okay. I guess I'd try to come back for a little more color on that. Just the -- given the degree of volatility we saw in Q4, which is very significant increases in datacom, very significant declines in telecom. Would you say expect a similar pattern? Is that what you continue to expect? Big movements on both sides or...

好的。我想我會嘗試回來看看更多細節。鑑於我們在第四季度看到的波動程度，數據通訊領域出現了非常顯著的成長，而電信領域出現了非常顯著的下降。您是否認為會出現類似的模式？這是您一直期待的嗎？兩邊都有大動作還是…

Yes.

是的。

Yes?

是的？

Yes, that is correct.

是的，正確。

Okay. Great. I want to follow up on the access on PON systems side. You announced a deal with Nokia recently. I imagine that's going to take a while to ramp up. But between that and your preexisting relationship with DZS, I mean, at what point, I guess, in fiscal '24 would you expect that to start to get material for you? And was it material at all in Q4?

好的。偉大的。我想跟進PON系統方面的接入情況。您最近宣布了與諾基亞達成的交易。我想這需要一段時間才能實現。但是介於此和您與 DZS 的先前關係之間，我的意思是，我猜，在 24 財年的什麼時候，您預計這會開始為您帶來素材？這在第四季有重要意義嗎？

So first of all, I think the -- it wasn't hugely material in Q4, I would say. And if you take the business with Nokia, it's important for sure, and we're very, very happy to be expanding the relationship with Nokia, but we don't believe it will be a material or 10% customer or anything like that. We -- it's an important piece of business, it's an important deal. It's important to Nokia, it's important to us to help them with their onshoring activities. But in terms of the revenue impact, I wouldn't want you to leave thinking it's a hugely significant revenue driver, it's not.

所以首先，我認為——我想說，這在第四季並不是很重要。如果你與諾基亞開展業務，這當然很重要，我們非常高興能夠擴大與諾基亞的關係，但我們不認為它會成為重要客戶或 10% 客戶或諸如此類的事情。我們－這是一項重要的業務，一項重要的交易。這對諾基亞很重要，對他們來說幫助他們進行在岸活動也很重要。但就收入影響而言，我不希望您認為這是一個非常重要的收入驅動因素，事實並非如此。

Well, maybe a little bit, but more broadly, given they're in the same kind of neck of the woods or competitors. If you look at the access systems area in general, maybe refocus the question on that in terms of timing and degree of materiality in fiscal '24, including DZS.

嗯，也許有一點，但更廣泛地說，考慮到他們處於同一境地或競爭對手之中。如果你整體上看一下接入系統領域，也許可以重新關註一下 24 財年的時間和重要性程度，包括 DZS。

Yes. It's difficult to say at this point, Tim. We're really focused on getting the products introduced. Obviously, DZS is now introduced, and it's in our numbers, if you like, it's in our forecast. It's in our Q1 number. Nokia's early days, but we think there's a lot of opportunity there, both in the access space, but in the onshoring -- generally opportunities for onshoring generally. And also, if you call it -- if you like, friendshoring, Thailand is a friendly location to manufacture for our customers. So we're very focused on that, but it's -- it will be very difficult to size it at this point.

是的。提姆，現在還很難說。我們真正專注於產品的推出。顯然，DZS 現在已經推出，並且它在我們的數字中，如果你願意，它在我們的預測中。它在我們的第一季數據中。諾基亞還處於起步階段，但我們認為那裡有很多機會，無論是在接入領域，還是在岸外包——總體來說，都是在岸外包的機會。而且，如果您稱之為“friendshoring”，那麼泰國對於我們的客戶來說是一個友好的製造地點。所以我們非常關注這一點，但是現在很難確定其規模。

Our next question comes from the line of Dave Kang with B. Riley.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley 的 Dave Kang。

My first question is, what was the supply chain impact in fiscal fourth quarter? And what is your expectation for this upcoming quarter?

我的第一個問題是，第四財季的供應鏈影響是什麼？您對下一季有何期望？

So Dave, we had considered if you look back at our last earnings call, we had forecasted or considered about $15 million of revenue headwind from supply chain constraints in Q4. And that's the way it panned out really. It was there about that level. The good news is that the supply environment continues to improve, and we're now at very manageable levels for supply headwinds, just normal supply challenges that everyone faces. And we really don't feel the need to call out that impact at this point. So we're actually not -- we're not calling out any specific number in our Q1 guidance, and we won't unless something changes considerably in the future.

所以戴夫，如果你回顧我們上次的財報電話會議，我們就已經預測或考慮到第四季度供應鏈限制將帶來約 1500 萬美元的收入逆風。事實也確實如此。它就在那個水平左右。好消息是，供應環境持續改善，現在供應逆風已經處於非常可控的水平，這只是每個人都會面臨的正常供應挑戰。我們確實覺得現在沒有必要指出這種影響。因此，我們實際上並沒有——我們並沒有在第一季的指引中給出任何具體的數字，除非未來發生重大變化，否則我們也不會這樣做。

Got it. And my follow-up is, so last quarter, you talked about 3 tailwinds: 400-gig intra-data DC, 800-gig intra DC and 400ZR DCI. Have they changed since then? And which is the strongest of the 3 for you now? And do you expect them to remain tailwinds for you next calendar year or fiscal year?

知道了。我的後續問題是，上個季度，您談到了 3 個順風：400-gig 內部資料 DC、800-gig 內部 DC 和 400ZR DCI。從那以後他們有改變嗎？那麼對您來說，這 3 個哪一個最強呢？您是否預期它們在下個日曆年或財政年度仍會對您產生有利影響？

Yes, fiscal year. Yes, I think they all remain tailwinds. I think the 800-gig AI data center transceiver program if I had to rank them in terms of the significance, that's probably the biggest opportunity, followed by 400ZR in terms of growth and then 400-gig, I think that would be the order in which I would bottom. But I think we're very excited, we're ideally positioned -- we really think we're ideally positioned. The growth in datacom, again, largely driven by these 3 product areas, if you like, is more than offsetting the declines in telecom. So in the future, as telecom comes back, we think the growth in datacom is sustainable and is long-term. So we should benefit, we think, nicely when telecom comes back after all the inventory has been digested.

是的，財政年度。是的，我認為它們都仍然是順風。我認為，如果我必須根據重要性對 800gig AI 資料中心收發器計劃進行排名，這可能是最大的機會，其次是 400ZR 的成長，然後是 400gig，我認為這將是我排名最後的順序。但我認為我們非常興奮，我們處於理想的位置——我們真的認為我們處於理想的位置。數據通訊的成長，再次主要受到這三個產品領域的推動，如果你願意的話，它足以抵銷電信領域的下滑。因此，我們認為，未來隨著電信業的復甦，數據通訊業的成長將是可持續的、長期的。因此，我們認為，當電信業消化完所有庫存並恢復元氣時，我們應該會受益匪淺。

And just to be clear, you expect those rankings to be kind of remain as is in fiscal '24, or could they change?

需要明確的是，您預計這些排名將與 24 財年的排名保持不變，還是會改變？

I think maybe the 2 and 3 could change, let's say, 400-gig growth could outpace 400ZR. But 400ZR is growing nicely. We have a number of customers in that area, as you know. It's growing nicely. So I would say 800-gig is the biggest growth opportunity and then followed by either 400ZR or 400-gig inside the data center, both of those represent sizable opportunities as well.

我認為 2 和 3 可能會發生變化，比如說 400-gig 的成長可能會超過 400ZR。但 400ZR 成長良好。如您所知，我們在該地區擁有許多客戶。它長得很好。因此，我認為 800-gig 是最大的成長機會，其次是資料中心內的 400ZR 或 400-gig，這兩者也代表著相當大的機會。

At this time, I would like to turn the call back to Seamus for closing remarks.

現在，我想把電話轉回 Seamus 做最後發言。

Thank you for joining our call today. We executed well in a dynamic environment to produce fourth quarter results that exceeded our guidance ranges. We remain well positioned to continue our track record of strong execution, and we remain optimistic about the positive long-term trends in the markets we serve. We look forward to speaking with you again. Goodbye.

感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。我們在動態環境中表現良好，並取得了超出預期範圍的第四季業績。我們仍處於有利地位，可以繼續保持強勁的執行力，並且我們對所服務市場的長期積極趨勢保持樂觀。我們期待再次與您交談。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。