富美實 (FMC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call for FMC Corporation. This event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Zack Zaki, Director of Investor Relations for FMC Corporation. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 FMC Corporation 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。該事件正在被記錄。 （操作員說明）。我現在請 FMC Corporation 投資者關係總監 Zack Zaki 先生主持會議。請繼續。

Thank you, Lydia, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to FMC Corporation's third quarter earnings call. Joining me today are Mark Douglas, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Andrew Sandifer, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mark will review our third quarter performance as well as provide an outlook for the fourth quarter and full year performance, followed by an update on FMC's diamide franchise. Andrew will provide an overview of select financial results. Following the prepared remarks, we will take questions.

謝謝你，莉迪亞，大家早安。歡迎參加 FMC Corporation 第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長馬克道格拉斯 (Mark Douglas)；執行副總裁兼財務長安德魯‧桑德弗 (Andrew Sandifer)。 Mark 將回顧我們第三季的業績，並提供第四季和全年業績的展望，隨後介紹 FMC 二醯胺特許經營權的最新情況。安德魯將概述部分財務表現。在準備好的發言之後，我們將回答問題。

Our earnings release and today's slide presentation are available on our website, and the prepared remarks from today's discussion will be made available after the call. Let me remind you that today's presentation and discussion will include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties concerning specific factors, including, but not limited to, those factors identified in our earnings release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information presented represents our best judgment based on today's understanding. Actual results may vary based upon these risks and uncertainties.

我們的收益發布和今天的幻燈片演示可在我們的網站上獲取，今天討論中準備好的評論將在電話會議後提供。讓我提醒您，今天的演示和討論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到與特定因素相關的各種風險和不確定性的影響，這些因素包括但不限於我們的收益報告和向證券交易委員會提交的文件中所確定的那些因素委員會。所提供的資訊代表了我們根據今天的理解做出的最佳判斷。實際結果可能會因這些風險和不確定性而有所不同。

Today's discussion and the supporting materials will include references to adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted cash from operations, free cash flow and organic revenue growth, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. Please note that as used in today's discussion, earnings means adjusted earnings and EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. A reconciliation and definition of these terms as well as other non-GAAP financial terms to which we may refer during today's conference call are provided on our website.

今天的討論和支持材料將包括對調整後每股收益、調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤、調整後營運現金、自由現金流和有機收入增長的參考，所有這些都是非公認會計準則財務指標。請注意，在今天的討論中，收益是指調整後的收益，EBITDA 是指調整後的 EBITDA。我們的網站上提供了這些術語以及我們在今天的電話會議中可能提及的其他非公認會計準則財務術語的調節和定義。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Mark.

現在，我將把電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, Zack, and good morning, everyone. During Q3, we observed a continuation of industry-wide destocking activity as the value chain resets inventory levels in response to increased security of supply and higher interest rates. This led to significantly lower volumes versus the prior year. And in the case of Latin America, the decline was much more severe than we had estimated at our last earnings call. As a reminder, due to the timing of its growing season, Latin America is typically the strongest contributor to our Q3 results, which amplifies the region's impacts on our overall Q3 numbers.

謝謝你，扎克，大家早安。在第三季度，我們觀察到全行業的去庫存活動仍在繼續，因為價值鏈為了應對供應安全性的提高和利率的上升而重置庫存水準。這導致銷量顯著低於上年。就拉丁美洲而言，下降幅度比我們在上次財報電話會議上估計的嚴重得多。提醒一下，由於其生長季節的時間安排，拉丁美洲通常是對我們第三季業績的最大貢獻者，這放大了該地區對我們第三季整體數據的影響。

We had assumed that the destocking we observed in Latin America during Q2 will be sufficient to allow for more normal order patterns to resume. As Latin America entered its main growing season in September, it became clear that we underestimated the depth and duration of the destocking to come.

我們曾假設，第二季在拉丁美洲觀察到的去庫存足以使訂單模式恢復更正常。隨著拉丁美洲在九月進入主要生長季節，我們顯然低估了即將到來的去庫存的深度和持續時間。

It is our view that when the global destocking ends and channel inventories have been reset, there will not be a snapback restocking period. Rather, we expect the crop protection market will grow from that reset inventory base at a more historical growth rate.

我們認為，當全球去庫存結束、通路庫存重置後，不會出現快速補貨期。相反，我們預期作物保護市場將從重置庫存基礎上以歷史成長率成長。

As a result, and as we noted in our prerelease, we are taking significant actions with regards to our company's cost structure. With an announced restructuring of our Brazilian operations as well as a review and adjustment of our total company cost base, we are rightsizing our cost base to better reflect market conditions, protect our margins and position us for future success. We will provide more details about our restructuring programs at our Investor Day.

因此，正如我們在預發布中指出的那樣，我們正在對公司的成本結構採取重大行動。隨著我們宣布重組巴西業務以及對公司總成本基礎進行審查和調整，我們正在調整我們的成本基礎，以更好地反映市場狀況，保護我們的利潤並為我們未來的成功做好準備。我們將在投資者日提供有關重組計劃的更多詳細資訊。

Our Q3 results are detailed on Slides 3, 4 and 5. Q3 revenue was 29% lower than the prior year both including and excluding FX, driven primarily by lower volumes from channel destocking and to a lesser extent, dry weather conditions in some countries. We had price increases in North America, EMEA and Asia which were more than offset by price decreases in Latin America. While our sales were down significantly versus prior year, we need to be clear that the grower application of crop protection products has been steady and even trending higher than the prior year in some key countries such as Brazil and the U.S.

我們的第三季業績詳見幻燈片3、4 和5。第三季營收比前一年下降了29%（包括和不包括外匯），這主要是由於通路去庫存導致銷售下降以及部分國家的乾燥天氣條件造成的。我們在北美、歐洲、中東和非洲和亞洲的價格上漲，但被拉丁美洲的價格下降所抵消。雖然我們的銷售額與前一年相比大幅下降，但我們需要明確的是，在巴西和美國等一些主要國家，種植者對作物保護產品的應用一直穩定，甚至比前一年有更高的趨勢。

In addition, sales of our newer and more differentiated products, including Branded Diamides and Plant Health, outperformed the overall portfolio. Products launched in the last 5 years grew 4% and represented 10% of total sales in the quarter, demonstrating robustness in the current environment. New product launches accounted for more than 4% of total company sales in the quarter.

此外，我們更新且更具差異化的產品（包括品牌二醯胺和植物健康）的銷售表現優於整體產品組合。過去 5 年推出的產品成長了 4%，佔本季總銷售額的 10%，展現了在當前環境下的穩健性。新產品的推出佔該季度公司總銷售額的4%以上。

Looking at our revenue by region, North America sales were lower than the prior year by 34% and as anticipated destocking activity was the main driver of lower volumes. Dry weather in Canada was a smaller volume headwind. Sales in EMEA were relatively flat with a revenue decline of only 1% and 4% excluding FX. We encountered volume pressure from channel destocking as expected, particularly in Germany. This was mostly offset by a combination of higher prices, strong diamide sales that outperformed the overall portfolio and a modest FX tailwind.

從我們按地區劃分的收入來看，北美銷售額比前一年下降了 34%，而預期的去庫存活動是銷售下降的主要驅動因素。加拿大的乾燥天氣是一個較小的逆風量。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額相對持平，收入僅下降 1% 和 4%（不包括外匯）。正如預期的那樣，我們遇到了渠道去庫存帶來的銷售壓力，特別是在德國。這主要被價格上漲、優於整體投資組合的強勁二酰胺銷售以及適度的外匯推動因素相結合所抵消。

In Latin America, sales were down 33%, 36%, excluding FX, due to lower volumes and to a lesser degree, pricing pressure. Destocking, particularly in Brazil and Argentina was the driver of the results in the region. At the same time, we had a very successful launch of our patent-pending diamide insecticide Premio Star in Brazil. The strength of that launch was one reason Branded Diamide strongly outperformed the rest of the region's portfolio.

在拉丁美洲，不包括外匯在內，由於銷售下降以及較小程度的定價壓力，銷售額分別下降了 33% 和 36%。去庫存，特別是在巴西和阿根廷，是該地區業績的推動因素。同時，我們正在巴西成功推出正在申請專利的二醯胺殺蟲劑 Premio Star。這次推出的力度是品牌二醯胺的表現遠優於該地區其他產品組合的原因之一。

Shifting to Asia. Sales were down 28% and 23% organically. As expected, from like the other regions, volumes were negatively impacted by destocking behavior, particularly in India, where elevated channel inventory continues to be actively managed. Pricing was up slightly with an FX headwind. Products launched in the last 5 years grew -- showed greater resilience than the rest of the portfolio and grew 16% versus the prior year, driven by sales of Isoflex herbicide. The outperformance of new products in most regions demonstrates how our technology differentiates FMC in the marketplace, and why our new product pipeline is a key contributor to our growth at consistently superior margins.

轉移到亞洲。銷售額有機下降 28% 和 23%。正如預期的那樣，與其他地區一樣，銷售也受到去庫存行為的負面影響，特別是在印度，該國繼續積極管理高額的通路庫存。由於外匯不利因素，定價略有上漲。過去 5 年推出的產品有所增長——在 Isoflex 除草劑銷售的推動下，比其他產品組合表現出更大的彈性，與前一年相比增長了 16%。新產品在大多數地區的出色表現證明了我們的技術如何使 FMC 在市場上脫穎而出，以及為什麼我們的新產品系列是我們持續保持較高利潤成長的關鍵因素。

We reported EBITDA of $175 million in the quarter, down 33% compared to the prior year period due to the volume decline, along with a smaller pricing headwind, partially offset by lower costs. Sales of new products included launches and sales of differentiated products such as our Branded Diamides and biologicals positively impacted mix.

我們報告本季 EBITDA 為 1.75 億美元，與去年同期相比下降 33%，原因是銷量下降，加上定價阻力較小，但成本下降部分抵消了這一影響。新產品的銷售包括差異化產品的推出和銷售，例如我們的品牌二醯胺和生物製品，對產品組合產生了正面影響。

Costs were $137 million tailwind with contribution from inputs and to a lesser degree operating costs. Input cost benefits were especially pronounced compared to the prior year period, that represented the peak of inflationary headwinds. Combined SG&A and R&D costs were favorable to prior year, and we are on track to deliver our commitment of $60 million to $70 million cost control in the second half, keeping those operating costs in line with the prior year.

成本為 1.37 億美元，其中包括投入成本和較小程度的營運成本。與去年同期相比，投入成本效益尤其明顯，去年同期代表了通膨逆風的頂峰。 SG&A 和研發成本合計好於去年，我們預計在下半年兌現 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元成本控制的承諾，使這些營運成本與去年保持一致。

Shifting to our outlook. Slide 6 shows our latest expectations for Q4 and full year. We are expecting revenue in Q4 to be 22% lower than the prior year driven by a high-teens percentage volume decline as destocking continues. Similar to Q3, we expect a low to mid-single-digit pricing headwind in Q4 driven by Latin America. FX impact is forecasted to be minimal. Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 is expected to be between $246 million and $306 million, which is a 36% year-over-year decline at the midpoint primarily due to lower volumes. We expect positive mix impact sales of new products, including launches continue to show growth. Operating costs are expected to be in line with the prior year as cost controls remain in place.

轉向我們的觀點。投影片 6 顯示了我們對第四季和全年的最新預期。我們預計第四季度的營收將比去年同期下降 22%，原因是隨著去庫存的持續，銷售百分比將下降。與第三季類似，我們預計第四季將在拉丁美洲的推動下出現低至中個位數的定價逆風。預計外匯影響很小。第四季調整後 EBITDA 預計在 2.46 億美元至 3.06 億美元之間，年減 36%，主要是因為銷量下降。我們預計新產品的銷售將受到正面的組合影響，包括新產品的推出將繼續顯示成長。由於成本控制仍然到位，預計營運成本將與上一年持平。

I'll now turn the call over to Andrew, who will cover cash flow and other financial topics.

我現在將電話轉給安德魯，他將討論現金流和其他財務主題。

Thanks, Mark. I'll start this morning with a review of some key income statement items. FX had essentially no impact on revenue in Q3 with headwinds among Asian currencies, particularly the Pakistani rupee and the Indian rupee, offset by tailwinds in Latin America and in European currencies. Particularly the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso and the euro.

謝謝，馬克。今天早上我將先回顧一些關鍵的損益表項目。外匯對第三季的收入基本上沒有影響，亞洲貨幣（特別是巴基斯坦盧比和印度盧比）的逆風被拉丁美洲和歐洲貨幣的逆風所抵消。特別是巴西雷亞爾、墨西哥比索和歐元。

EBITDA margin in the quarter was down 120 basis points versus the prior year period. While favorable input costs and positive mix led to a gross margin percent that was over 400 basis points higher than the prior year period, the severity of the volume decline resulted in a decline in EBITDA margin. EBITDA margins in Q4 are expected to be meaningfully below prior year and prior guidance. Gross margin is anticipated to be challenged by pricing pressures in Latin America and Asia due to current market conditions. Despite continued operating cost discipline, the expected decline in volume is anticipated to further pressure EBITDA margin as SG&A and R&D expenses are supported by a lower revenue base.

本季 EBITDA 利潤率較去年同期下降 120 個基點。雖然有利的投入成本和積極的組合導致毛利率比去年同期高出 400 個基點以上，但銷售量的嚴重下降導致 EBITDA 利潤率下降。第四季的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將大幅低於去年同期和先前的指引。由於當前的市場狀況，預計拉丁美洲和亞洲的毛利率將受到定價壓力的挑戰。儘管營運成本持續受到限制，但預計銷售下降將進一步對 EBITDA 利潤率構成壓力，因為銷售基礎、管理費用和研發費用受到較低收入基礎的支持。

Interest expense for Q3 was $65 million, up $23 million from the prior year period. The significant increase in U.S. interest rates year-over-year was the main driver. Higher overall debt levels also contributed to increased interest expense as working capital remains elevated. Relative to guidance, elevated interest expense was entirely attributable to higher debt balances. We now expect full year interest expense to be in the range of $240 million to $245 million, with the increase versus prior guidance due to elevated working capital levels, resulting in higher debt balances. Our effective tax rate on adjusted earnings for Q3 was 15%, in line with the midpoint of our full year expectation for a tax rate of 14% to 16%.

第三季利息支出為 6,500 萬美元，比去年同期增加 2,300 萬美元。美國利率較去年同期大幅上漲是主要推動力。由於營運資本仍較高，整體債務水準較高也導致利息支出增加。相對於指引，利息支出增加完全歸因於債務餘額增加。我們現在預計全年利息支出將在 2.4 億美元至 2.45 億美元之間，由於營運資金水準提高，導致債務餘額增加，因此與先前的指導相比有所增加。我們第三季調整後收益的有效稅率為 15%，與我們全年預期稅率 14% 至 16% 的中位數一致。

Moving next to the balance sheet and liquidity. As of September 30, gross debt-to-EBITDA was 3.6x, while net debt-to-EBITDA was 3.3x, reflecting the sudden deceleration of our earnings beginning in Q2 and elevated debt levels due to higher working capital resulting from this deceleration. The covenants to our revolving credit facility evaluate our leverage using a metric that includes adjustments to both EBITDA and debt as reported. With these adjustments, covenant leverage was 3.8x as of September 30 relative to a maximum allowable of 4.0x. We do not view this as an acceptable leverage level relative to our covenant.

接下來是資產負債表和流動性。截至9 月30 日，總債務與EBITDA 之比為3.6 倍，而淨債務與EBITDA 之比為3.3 倍，反映了我們從第二季度開始的盈利突然減速，以及由於這種減速導致營運資本增加而導致的債務水準上升。我們的循環信貸額度的契約使用一個指標來評估我們的槓桿率，其中包括對報告的 EBITDA 和債務的調整。經過這些調整，截至 9 月 30 日，契約槓桿率為 3.8 倍，相對於允許的最大 4.0 倍。相對於我們的契約，我們認為這不是可接受的槓桿水平。

In light of this and the reduced outlook for Q4, we are currently in advanced discussions with our bank group to further amend our covenants to provide additional headroom for the company as we adjust our cost structure and debt levels to current market realities. Our bank group continues to be highly supportive of the company and recognizes the transitory nature of the current industry-wide channel inventory correction. We expect to complete this amendment in the next 7 to 10 days and we'll provide further updates at that time.

鑑於這一點以及第四季度前景的下調，我們目前正在與我們的銀行集團進行深入討論，以進一步修改我們的契約，以便在我們根據當前市場現實調整成本結構和債務水平時為公司提供額外的空間。我們的銀行集團繼續大力支持該公司，並認識到目前全行業通路庫存調整的暫時性。我們預計在未來 7 到 10 天內完成此修訂，屆時我們將提供進一步的更新。

Moving on to cash flow generation and deployment on Slide 7. FMC generated free cash flow of $32 million in Q3 down from $360 million in the prior year period. Cash from operations declined $316 million, with lower EBITDA and substantially lower payables as we adjust our operations to match current demand. Capital additions and other investing activities were slightly lower than the prior year period, while legacy spending increased $14 million due to timing of expenses.

接下來是幻燈片 7 中的現金流產生和部署。FMC 在第三季度產生的自由現金流為 3,200 萬美元，低於去年同期的 3.6 億美元。由於我們調整營運以滿足當前需求，營運現金減少了 3.16 億美元，EBITDA 降低，應付帳款大幅減少。資本增加和其他投資活動略低於去年同期，而由於支出時間安排，遺留支出增加了 1,400 萬美元。

Year-to-date cash flow through September 30 was negative $790 million, $651 million lower than the prior year period. Nearly all of the reduction stems from lower cash from operations, which was down substantially due to lower EBITDA and lower payables. We returned $73 million to shareholders in the quarter via dividends. There were no share repurchases in Q3. We expect full year weighted average diluted shares outstanding to be 125.7 million.

截至 9 月 30 日，年初至今的現金流為負 7.9 億美元，比去年同期減少 6.51 億美元。幾乎所有的減少都源於營運現金的減少，而由於 EBITDA 和應付帳款的減少，營運現金大幅下降。本季我們透過股息向股東返還 7,300 萬美元。第三季沒有股票回購。我們預計全年加權平均稀釋後流通股數為 1.257 億股。

We've reduced our free cash flow guidance for 2023 to negative $750 million at the midpoint, down from breakeven in our previous guidance. The reduction in full year cash flow outlook is a direct result of lower-than-expected second half EBITDA and the impact of reduced volumes on working capital. Compared to prior year, the decline in free cash flow is almost entirely due to lower EBITDA and payables. With lower use of cash flow inventory, largely offsetting other items, including higher cash interest, cash taxes and capital investment.

我們已將 2023 年自由現金流指引下調至負 7.5 億美元，低於先前指引中的損益平衡點。全年現金流前景的下調是下半年 EBITDA 低於預期以及營運資本減少的影響的直接結果。與前一年相比，自由現金流的下降幾乎完全是由於 EBITDA 和應付帳款減少所致。由於現金流量庫存的使用較低，很大程度上抵消了其他項目，包括較高的現金利息、現金稅和資本投資。

Adjusted cash from operations is now expected to be between negative $635 million and negative $435 million, down substantially from prior guidance. Capital additions are expected to be between $135 million and $145 million, including spending to support new product introductions, which is our most recent results illustrate, drive high value for our business even in challenging industry conditions.

目前預計調整後的營運現金將在負 6.35 億美元至負 4.35 億美元之間，大幅低於先前的指引。資本增加預計在 1.35 億美元至 1.45 億美元之間，包括支持新產品推出的支出，這是我們最新的結果表明，即使在充滿挑戰的行業條件下，也能為我們的業務帶來高價值。

Legacy and transformation cash spending of $70 million to $80 million is expected to remain essentially flat at the midpoint after adjusting for the benefit from the disposal of an inactive site in 2022. This guidance implies a rolling 3-year average free cash flow conversion of 21%, substantially below our targeted 70-plus percent. This is due entirely to the cash flow impacts from the inventory reset in 2023.

在對 2022 年處置閒置場地的收益進行調整後，7000 萬至 8000 萬美元的遺留和轉型現金支出預計將基本保持在中點水平。該指導意味著滾動 3 年平均自由現金流轉換為 21 %，遠低於我們70% 以上的目標。這完全是由於 2023 年庫存重置對現金流的影響。

I'll reiterate Mark's earlier point that end market demand for our products is solid. The quality of our receivables is solid with good performance on collections in key countries, including Brazil. Once this industry-wide channel inventory reset is finished and more normal order patterns resume, we expect a significant rebound in cash flow. As EBITDA improves, inventory is converted to receivables, which are subsequently collected and critically, as we rebuild payables ramping back up production.

我將重申馬克先前的觀點，即終端市場對我們產品的需求是穩定的。我們的應收帳款品質穩定，在包括巴西在內的主要國家的收款表現良好。一旦全行業通路庫存重置完成且訂單模式恢復更正常，我們預計現金流將大幅反彈。隨著 EBITDA 的改善，庫存將轉換為應收帳款，隨後我們將重新收集應收帳款，這一點至關重要，因為我們將重建應付帳款以增加生產。

Our near-term cash deployment priorities have not changed with the dividend and debt reduction, including the redemption in Q4 of the $400 million in notes due in 2024, still the top priorities. Share repurchases will remain suspended until a leverage return sustainably at targeted levels.

我們的近期現金部署優先事項並沒有隨著股利和債務的減少而改變，包括第四季贖回2024年到期的4億美元票據，仍然是首要任務。股票回購將繼續暫停，直到槓桿率持續恢復到目標水準。

And with that, I'll hand the call back to Mark.

然後，我會將電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Andrew. I mentioned earlier that our more differentiated products were showing resilience in the current market environment. This includes the diamides, a very successful product franchise which has received renewed attention over the last couple of months. Today, I'll give you an update on the progress of our diamide growth strategy. This will be supplemented by a forward-looking view of the robust growth plans we have for the diamides at our Investor Day.

謝謝，安德魯。我之前提到，我們更具差異化的產品在當前的市場環境下展現了韌性。其中包括二醯胺，這是一個非常成功的產品系列，在過去幾個月中再次受到關注。今天，我將向您介紹我們二醯胺成長策略的最新進展。我們將在投資者日對二醯胺的強勁成長計畫進行前瞻性展望，以補充這一點。

We have owned the diamides for the past 6 years. Over this time frame, we have delivered on every target we've set, including growing the size of the business, expanding our partner base, accelerating registrations, expanding our geographic footprint; and finally, introducing brand-new patented formulations that allow us to explore and expand the new market segments. All of these results should provide confidence that we can continue to profitably grow the franchise into the future.

過去 6 年我們一直擁有二醯胺。在這段時間內，我們實現了設定的每一個目標，包括擴大業務規模、擴大我們的合作夥伴基礎、加速註冊、擴大我們的地理覆蓋範圍；最後，推出全新的專利配方，使我們能夠探索和擴展新的細分市場。所有這些結果應該讓我們充滿信心，相信我們可以在未來繼續獲利地發展特許經營權。

Turning to Slide 9 for some basic data on the insecticides market, which was valued at over $20 billion in 2022. Insecticides have grown at roughly 5% per year over the current time frame. FMC's diamides Rynaxypyr and Cyazypyr make up more than 80% of the entire Diamides class, which includes a few other smaller active ingredients. FMC's diamides have grown about 12% of the total insecticide market.

請參閱投影片 9，以了解殺蟲劑市場的一些基本數據，該市場到 2022 年價值將超過 200 億美元。在目前時間範圍內，殺蟲劑每年增長約 5%。 FMC 的二醯胺 Rynaxypyr 和 Cyazypyr 佔整個二醯胺類的 80% 以上，其中還包括一些其他較小的活性成分。 FMC 的二醯胺已佔整個殺蟲劑市場的 12% 左右。

And as you can see, diamides outperformed every other leading chemistry class in the insecticide market by growing at 11% compound annual growth rate and gained 5% market share as a result. High-value technologies such as the diamides continues to take share from older insecticides, some of them being phased out by regulators.

正如您所看到的，二醯胺的複合年增長率為 11%，超過了殺蟲劑市場上所有其他領先的化學類別，並因此獲得了 5% 的市場份額。二醯胺等高價值技術繼續從舊殺蟲劑中奪取份額，其中一些已被監管機構逐步淘汰。

Turning to Slide 10, we show the breakdown of our $2.1 billion of diamide sales in 2022. Cyazypyr has grown more rapidly than Rynaxapyr since our acquisition of the assets and made up more than 20% of total sales. This year, we estimate that this trend will continue with Cyazypyr making up roughly 22% of total diamide sales. Partner sales are a key element of our life cycle management strategy. FMC sales either technical active ingredient are formulated products to our partners under these arrangements. We have long-term supply agreements with 5 key global companies and over 60 local agreements in various countries with the potential to add more partners in the future. Many of these agreements go through the end of the decade.

轉向幻燈片 10，我們展示了 2022 年 21 億美元二醯胺銷售額的明細。自我們收購資產以來，Cyazypyr 的成長速度比 Rynaxapyr 更快，佔總銷售額的 20% 以上。今年，我們估計這一趨勢將持續下去，Cyazypyr 約佔二醯胺總銷售額的 22%。合作夥伴銷售是我們生命週期管理策略的關鍵要素。根據這些安排，FMC 向我們的合作夥伴銷售任一技術活性成分配製的產品。我們與 5 家主要全球公司簽訂了長期供應協議，並在各國簽訂了 60 多個本地協議，未來有可能增加更多合作夥伴。其中許多協議都會持續到本世紀末。

The partnership model has helped to expand the market for our diamide since our partners have access to customers, crops and segments that we do not currently serve. Moreover, partner sales are not margin dilutive, and these sales made up roughly 1/3 of our diamide revenue in 2022, while the remaining 2/3 came from our own commercial activities, which we refer to as branded sales.

這種合作夥伴關係模式有助於擴大我們的二醯胺市場，因為我們的合作夥伴可以接觸到我們目前不服務的客戶、作物和細分市場。此外，合作夥伴銷售不會攤薄利潤，這些銷售約占我們2022年二醯胺收入的1/3，其餘2/3來自我們自己的商業活動，我們稱之為品牌銷售。

In 2023, we've seen our partners actively manage their inventories, resulting in lower sales. Branded sales have continued to outperform the overall company. We've also shown the geographic breakdown of our branded sales as of 2022. Asia made up more than 40% of our branded sales followed by Latin America at 28%, EMEA at 17% and North America at 12%. This year, we expect Branded sales to outperform total sales in Latin America driven by new products introductions. Branded diamides in the other regions are expected to perform in line with or better than respective regional sales.

2023 年，我們看到我們的合作夥伴積極管理庫存，導致銷售額下降。品牌銷售額持續跑贏公司整體。我們也顯示了截至 2022 年我們品牌銷售額的地理分佈。亞洲占我們品牌銷售額的 40% 以上，其次是拉丁美洲，佔 28%，歐洲、中東和非洲佔 17%，北美佔 12%。今年，我們預計在新產品推出的推動下，拉丁美洲的品牌銷售額將超過總銷售額。其他地區的品牌二酰胺預計將與各自地區的銷售情況持平或更好。

On the right is the crop breakdown of our overall diamide revenue, which includes branded and partner sales. The diversity of crops reflects the broad market potential as well as market access required to sell these products. This is an important factor note as we have numerous products selling in more than 90 countries across dozens of crops. Our diamides are not a single monolithic product and as such are defendable through various mechanisms, including, most importantly, newly patented formulations, branding, value selling, agronomic support and grower education. Our precision ag offering, Arc Farm Intelligence now help support and defend over $700 million of revenue from our branded diamides, a unique and powerful tool in our diamides growth strategy.

右側是我們二酰胺整體收入的作物細分，其中包括品牌銷售和合作夥伴銷售。農作物的多樣性反映了廣泛的市場潛力以及銷售這些產品所需的市場准入。這是一個需要注意的重要因素，因為我們有多種產品銷往 90 多個國家/地區，涵蓋數十種作物。我們的二醯胺不是單一的整體產品，因此可以透過各種機制進行保護，最重要的是，包括新專利配方、品牌、價值銷售、農藝支援和種植者教育。我們的精準農業產品 Arc Farm Intelligence 現在幫助支持和捍衛我們品牌二醯胺帶來的超過 7 億美元的收入，這是我們二醯胺成長策略中獨特而強大的工具。

Turning to Slide 11. You can see that managing the diamide life cycle has multiple strategic components. We will provide more color on these pillars at Investor Day in November, but I wanted to start framing the innovation and IP pillars today.

轉向投影片 11。您可以看到管理二醯胺生命週期有多個策略組成部分。我們將在 11 月的投資者日上為這些支柱提供更多色彩，但我想從今天開始建立創新和智慧財產權支柱。

Turning to Slide 12. FMC has continued to significantly grow the diamides through innovation since acquiring them in late 2017. At acquisition, sales were already segmented across dozens of formulations and brands spread across more than 80 countries. Since acquisition, FMC has increased the segmentation by developing new partner sales, launching new patented formulations and brands obtaining new registrations and expanding existing labels, which have resulted in a diverse portfolio. This diversity minimize reliance on any single formulation and instead relies on innovation to drive future growth. We have already started to see the benefits of recent innovation in diamides. This is evident from the increase in total sales of branded diamides from '21 to '22, even though some of the core Rynaxapyr products declined modestly in the same time frame.

轉向幻燈片 12。自 2017 年底收購二醯胺以來，FMC 繼續透過創新大幅成長二醯胺。收購時，銷售已細分為分佈在 80 多個國家的數十種配方和品牌。自收購以來，FMC 透過開發新的合作夥伴銷售、推出新的專利配方和品牌來獲得新的註冊以及擴大現有標籤來擴大細分市場，從而形成多元化的產品組合。這種多樣性最大限度地減少了對任何單一配方的依賴，而是依靠創新來推動未來的成長。我們已經開始看到近期二醯胺創新的好處。從 21 年至 22 年品牌二醯胺總銷售額的成長可以明顯看出這一點，儘管一些核心 Rynaxapyr 產品在同一時間範圍內略有下降。

Coragen MaX insecticide powered by Rynaxapyr is one example of innovation that did not exist when we acquired the diamides. Coragen MaX is a patent-pending, higher concentration formulation of Coragen that provides targeted insect control in canola, pulses and cereals. Premio Star is another example of new technology that was developed primarily for applications on Brazilian soy, corn and citrus crops and received priority approval from Brazilian authorities.

由 Rynaxapyr 提供動力的 Coragen MaX 殺蟲劑是我們購買二醯胺時還不存在的創新範例之一。 Coragen MaX 是一種正在申請專利的高濃度 Coragen 配方，可為油菜、豆類和穀物提供有針對性的昆蟲控制。 Premio Star 是新技術的另一個例子，該技術主要針對巴西大豆、玉米和柑橘作物的應用而開發，並獲得了巴西當局的優先批准。

The patent pending combination of Rynaxypyr and Bifenthrin, provides a differentiated formulation with extremely high performance for chewing and sucking insects. Premio Star has a dual mode of action, its broad spectrum with both immediate and extended control.

Rynaxypyr 和聯苯菊酯的組合正在申請專利，為咀嚼和吸吮昆蟲提供了一種具有極高性能的差異化配方。 Premio Star 具有雙重作用模式，其廣譜性具有即時和擴展控制功能。

FMC has developed and launched 4 new patented or patent pending formulations across 10 countries in the past few years. These new technologies are expected to make up 17% of branded diamide sales in 2023. Contributions from new products will further accelerate over the next few years moving FMC's portfolio away from older and less differentiated products.

過去幾年，FMC 已在 10 個國家開發並推出了 4 種新的專利配方或正在申請專利的配方。預計到 2023 年，這些新技術將佔品牌二醯胺銷售額的 17%。未來幾年，新產品的貢獻將進一步加速，使 FMC 的產品組合遠離舊的和差異化程度較低的產品。

Slides 13 and 14 show an updated view of our patent and regulatory time lines. FMC has a patent state of over 1,000 granted and pending patents filed in over 75 countries for the diamides. While we have not changed our overall outlook, we have included additional commentary to reflect development since we last shared these time lines. One addition from our last version of this slide is the inclusion of patented mixtures and patent-pending formulations that can extend patent coverage once granted to 2040 and beyond in some cases.

投影片 13 和 14 顯示了我們的專利和監管時間表的更新視圖。 FMC 在超過 75 個國家擁有超過 1,000 項已授​​予和正在申請的二醯胺專利。雖然我們沒有改變我們的整體前景，但我們添加了額外的評論來反映自上次分享這些時間表以來的進展。這張投影片上一版的補充是納入了專利混合物和正在申請專利的配方，在某些情況下，一旦授予專利權，可以將專利覆蓋範圍延長至 2040 年甚至更久。

Patents are regulated by different government entities than the ones that issue crop protection registrations. Approvals of registrations does not have any bearing on patent validity. Generally speaking, legal actions must be initiated by the patent holder and can only start after registration is received and a generic product centers into commercialization.

專利由與頒發作物保護登記的政府實體不同的政府實體監管。註冊批准對專利有效性沒有任何影響。一般來說，法律訴訟必須由專利持有人發起，並且只有在獲得註冊並且仿製藥進入商業化之後才能開始。

Moreover, patent judgments in 1 country do not change FMC's patent rights in other countries, nor do these judgments give companies the freedom to operate in other countries with valid patents in place. FMC will continue to enforce our patents and we view any infringing party as a seller of illegal product. In addition to our legal strategy, we also have a regulatory advocacy strategy that includes enforcement of our data protection rights and notifying regulators about companies that do not have permission to produce or have unknown or different impurities in their products or otherwise do not comply with applicable regulatory law.

此外，一個國家的專利判決不會改變 FMC 在其他國家的專利權，這些判決也不會賦予公司在擁有有效專利的其他國家運作的自由。 FMC 將繼續執行我們的專利，我們將任何侵權者視為非法產品的銷售商。除了我們的法律策略外，我們還制定了監管倡議策略，其中包括執行我們的資料保護權，以及向監管機構通報那些無權生產、產品中含有未知或不同雜質或不遵守適用法規的公司。監管法。

This has been and continues to be a successful strategy. Numerous regulatory authorities have declined to approve registrations from such companies. In other instances, companies have voluntarily canceled or withdrawn applications as a result of our efforts.

這一直是並將繼續是一個成功的策略。許多監管機構拒絕批准此類公司的註冊。在其他情況下，由於我們的努力，公司自願取消或撤回申請。

Hopefully, this overview has provided a more comprehensive understanding of the current state of FMC's diamides. At our Investor Day, we'll provide a view of the next phase of growth for this franchise driven by innovation and other strategic leaders.

希望本概述能讓您更全面地了解 FMC 二醯胺的現況。在投資者日，我們將介紹該系列在創新和其他策略領導者的推動下下一階段的成長。

Finally, let me wrap up by saying that 2023 has clearly not turned out how we or the broader industry thought it would. However, we firmly believe the current channel destocking will run its cost and I believe we have taken the right actions to reflect what is happening from a channel demand standpoint.

最後，我想說的是，2023 年的結果顯然沒有達到我們或整個產業的預期。然而，我們堅信目前的通路去庫存將會付出代價，我相信我們已經採取了正確的行動，從通路需求的角度反映了正在發生的情況。

Our new products, Plant Health products and Branded Diamides all continued to outperform the rest of the portfolio, which shows the benefit of our technology investments. We look forward to seeing many of you at our Investor Day where we will lay out our new strategic plan and provide an outlook for FMC's growth over both the near and long term. We can now open the line for questions.

我們的新產品、植物健康產品和品牌二醯胺均持續優於其他產品組合，顯示了我們技術投資的好處。我們期待在投資者日見到你們，屆時我們將製定新的策略計劃，並展望 FMC 的近期和長期成長前景。我們現在可以開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Joel Jackson of BMO.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 的 Joel Jackson。

There are a lot of questions in FMC obviously the last weeks, last months on the near-term outlook and then, of course, the mid-term outlook with the diamides and other products. Maybe we could start with next year. I realize it's early, but it's a key question. We had a lot of volatility around the different numbers. When you think about 2024, can you help anchor us on what it might look like? I don't know if you want to use your 7% to 9% EBITDA placeholder target as a starting point. And as granular as possible around volumes, costs, price, where do you think earnings growth can shake out next year? What do you have to do to get the inventory out of the system, do you have to lower prices, whatever you can do to help us kind of look in '24, be appreciated.

顯然，過去幾週、過去幾個月，FMC 對近期前景以及二酰胺和其他產品的中期前景提出了許多疑問。也許我們可以從明年開始。我意識到現在還為時過早，但這是一個關鍵問題。不同的數字有很大的波動性。當您思考 2024 年時，您能否幫助我們了解 2024 年會是什麼樣子？我不知道您是否想使用 7% 到 9% 的 EBITDA 佔位目標作為起點。盡可能詳細地圍繞銷售、成本、價格，您認為明年的獲利成長會在哪些方面發生變化？你需要做什麼才能將庫存從系統中清除，你是否需要降低價格，無論你能做什麼來幫助我們看看 24 年，我們都會受到讚賞。

Yes. Thanks, Joel. Listen, you're right. It is a little early to be giving specific details, and we will talk more about this at our Investor Day, as you can imagine. But let me try and frame '24 in the context of where we are today, to give you some idea of how we're thinking.

是的。謝謝，喬爾。聽著，你是對的。現在給出具體細節還為時過早，正如您可以想像的那樣，我們將在投資者日更多地討論這一點。但讓我嘗試在我們今天所處的背景下建立 24 世紀的框架，讓您了解我們的想法。

We have gone through, obviously, since sort of midyear, a very significant inventory reset. And I'll keep reiterating the point that we see this as destocking inventory reset, whatever you want to call it, it does not reflect on the ground demand. We see strong on-the-ground demand pretty much everywhere in the world, which is the backdrop for how the business really recovers and comes out of this period. The resetting is occurring now. Obviously, we started in Q2, we entered Q3 and here we are in Q4, and it's still ongoing.

顯然，自年中以來，我們經歷了非常重大的庫存重置。我將不斷重申這一點，我們認為這是去庫存重置，無論你怎麼稱呼它，它都沒有反映實際需求。我們看到世界各地幾乎都有強勁的實地需求，這是業務如何真正復甦並走出這段時期的背景。現在正在進行重置。顯然，我們從第二季度開始，進入第三季度，現在進入第四季度，而且仍在繼續。

I would say, next year, Q1 is going to be more difficult because the inventory had not reset. So Q1 2023 was a pretty good quarter, kind of flattish to 2022. That's not going to be the case. We're going to see that inventory reset continue in Latin America, likely in Europe as well and maybe even a little bit in the U.S., we'll see how we go through Q4. I think things will start to change in Q2 as we start to lap the industry reset. And then I expect the industry to move forward in the second half of the year. I know some people will say it's going to be a first half, second half story. It is just because of the way the seasons are moving and the inventory is resetting.

我想說，明年第一季將會更加困難，因為庫存沒有重置。因此，2023 年第一季是一個相當不錯的季度，與 2022 年相比有些持平。但情況並非如此。我們將看到拉丁美洲繼續進行庫存重置，歐洲也可能如此，美國甚至可能有一點，我們將看看第四季度的情況如何。我認為隨著我們開始進行行業重置，第二季情況將開始發生變化。然後我預計該行業將在今年下半年向前發展。我知道有些人會說這會是前半部、後半部的故事。這只是因為季節的變化和庫存的重置。

From our perspective, I see revenue growth next year for FMC, and I see higher than revenue EBITDA growth and revenue for next year. Why do I say that? I think the second half of next year is going to be much better. I think the industry will be in a much more balanced shape. As I've said, we're not expecting a snap back. I just don't see with the current economic environment, where I see supply and where I see interest rates, I don't see people going and building a significant inventory again. That's not necessarily a bad thing. The industry typically grows at 3-plus percent a year. I expect you're going to see something like that number in the second half of the year.

從我們的角度來看，我預計 FMC 明年的營收將會成長，我預計明年的 EBITDA 成長將高於營收成長和營收。我為什麼這麼說呢？我認為明年下半年會好得多。我認為這個行業將處於更平衡的狀態。正如我所說，我們預計不會出現反彈。我只是不認為在當前的經濟環境中，我看到供應和利率，我沒有看到人們再次建立大量庫存。這不一定是壞事。該行業通常以每年百分之三以上的速度成長。我預計你會在今年下半年看到類似的數字。

For us, new products continue to be a major driver. One reason why we're very excited about next year is we have more products coming and right now, when you look at our what we call our NPI data, we're having something like $630 million this year of new business from those products launched in the last 5 years. I expect that number to be higher next year, adding more revenue to the company. So we see the new products paying off as we go over the next few years.

對我們來說，新產品仍然是主要推動力。我們對明年感到非常興奮的一個原因是我們將推出更多產品，現在，當您查看我們所謂的 NPI 數據時，我們今年從這些推出的產品中獲得了約 6.3 億美元的新業務在過去的5年裡。我預計明年這個數字會更高，從而為公司增加更多收入。因此，我們看到新產品在未來幾年將獲得回報。

From a cost perspective, I'll let Andrew comment a little bit on costs. We do have a couple of elements flowing through the P&L and balance sheet right now. Not only do we have cost savings but we have unabsorbed variances coming out of our manufacturing plants as we think about the length of time that those manufacturing plants are either shut or idled and until they come back. So you've got to factor that in as we go next year. Having said that, we are putting in place significant restructuring plans. That will add benefit EBITDA next year as well as the product mix benefits EBITDA and gross margin.

從成本的角度來看，我會讓安德魯對成本進行一些評論。目前我們的損益表和資產負債表中確實有一些要素。我們不僅節省了成本，而且我們的製造工廠也產生了未吸收的差異，因為我們考慮到這些製造工廠關閉或閒置的時間長度，直到它們恢復正常。所以我們明年的時候你必須考慮到這一點。話雖如此，我們正在製定重大重組計劃。這將增加明年的 EBITDA 效益，同時產品組合也將有利於 EBITDA 和毛利率。

Andrew, do you want to say anything on the cost side?

安德魯，您想對成本方面說些什麼嗎？

I'll just echo comments you made, Mark, I think as we look forward to input costs for next year, the cost of what limited buying we're doing right now, but the cost of things that we're buying are we've been a positive comparison to prior year. We do expect that input costs will be a modest tailwind next year.

我只是回應你的評論，馬克，我認為當我們期待明年的投入成本時，我們現在正在進行的有限購買的成本，但我們正在購買的東西的成本是我們的與去年相比，情況積極。我們確實預期明年的投入成本將是一個溫和的推動因素。

The challenge is, unfortunately, the carry forward of unabsorbed fixed costs from reduced production in the latter part of this year and into early next year. So at gross margin, we're not expecting a lot of help either way from -- at the gross margin line from input cost. It would be an offset again by unabsorbed fixed cost. It really would be the impact of the cost savings programs we're in the process of launching that will impact every line of the P&L from COGS to SG&A and R&D. We'll detail this more additional detail at our Investor Day in a few weeks, but that will be a big part of driving profit growth next year.

不幸的是，挑戰在於將今年下半年和明年初產量減少所導致的未吸收固定成本結轉。因此，就毛利率而言，我們預計不會從投入成本的毛利率線上獲得太多幫助。這將再次被未吸收的固定成本所抵消。這實際上是我們正在啟動的成本節約計劃的影響，它將影響從銷貨成本到銷售管理、行政管理和研發的損益表的各個方面。我們將在幾週後的投資者日上詳細介紹更多細節，但這將是推動明年利潤成長的重要組成部分。

So Joel, to wrap up for you. Expect to see revenue growth, expect to see EBITDA growth above revenue growth next year from FMC.

喬爾，為您總結一下。預計明年 FMC 的營收成長將超過 EBITDA 成長。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you reiterated a lot of your plan to defend the diamides across the decade. As you started doing some of these moves, can you talk about what's going well, what's not going as well as you thought in some of the strategies and how you're thinking about changing them? And if you can be as granular as possible, what's working and not working in the different countries like India, Brazil, where else, wherever else it would be helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。然後你重申了在十年內捍衛二醯胺的許多計劃。當您開始採取其中一些舉措時，您能否談談在某些策略中哪些進展順利，哪些進展不如您想像的那麼好，以及您如何考慮改變它們？如果你能盡可能詳細地了解在印度、巴西等不同國家/地區，什麼是有效的，什麼是無效的，這將會有所幫助。

Yes, sure. I mean, first of all, our main strategy, I think it's on Slide 12, which shows the sediment chart. You can see on that slide how we're altering the profile of the portfolio of the diamides. The new products are growing rapidly. The one we mentioned in the script, Premio Star in Brazil, that has already contributed in Q3, tens of millions of dollars of new growth, and we expect to see the same in Q4 and as we go forward in the rest of the season. That's the type of activity that changes the face of the diamides.

是的，當然。我的意思是，首先，我們的主要策略，我認為它在投影片 12 上，它顯示了沉積物圖表。您可以在該投影片上看到我們如何改變二醯胺產品組合的概況。新產品成長迅速。我們在劇本中提到的巴西 Premio Star 已經在第三季度貢獻了數千萬美元的新增長，我們預計在第四季度以及本賽季餘下的時間裡也能看到同樣的情況。這就是改變二酰胺外觀的活動類型。

First of all, they give you tremendous patent extension because these are very sophisticated formulations whether it's the blend of different active ingredients or something like Coragen MaX, which is a very high concentration formulation. It means you can use less. It means you're carrying less water, less packaging, so from a sustainability perspective, it's a great product, and it also has superb efficacy. So it's those types of innovations not only change what we sell, it moves us away from any generic products that will come into the market, either legally or illegally in different countries. It changes the shape and it adds more value to the company. So I think from a product innovation standpoint, that's one aspect that we've been heavily focused on.

首先，它們為您提供了巨大的專利延伸，因為這些都是非常複雜的配方，無論是不同活性成分的混合物，還是像 Coragen MaX 這樣的高濃度配方。這意味著你可以少用一點。這意味著您攜帶的水和包裝更少，因此從永續發展的角度來看，它是一款很棒的產品，而且還具有卓越的功效。因此，這些類型的創新不僅改變了我們銷售的產品，而且使我們遠離任何將在不同國家合法或非法進入市場的通用產品。它改變了形狀並為公司增加了更多價值。所以我認為從產品創新的角度來看，這是我們一直非常關注的一個面向。

The second piece is the continued geographic expansion registration label expansion. You can see by the chart that we showed where diamides sit, in the whole spectrum of insecticides. There are some very old chemistries out there that are going to be removed over the next 10 years. Our target is those older chemistries. So we need to make sure we have the products and the right registrations and the right geographies on those crops to take away those older chemistries.

第二塊是持續的地理擴張註冊標籤擴張。您可以透過圖表看到二醯胺在整個殺蟲劑光譜中的位置。有一些非常古老的化學物質將在未來 10 年內被清除。我們的目標是那些古老的化學物質。因此，我們需要確保我們擁有這些作物的產品、正確的註冊和正確的地理位置，以消除那些舊的化學物質。

So for me, it's innovation, it's geographic expansion and the innovation is really driving the next generation of patent support that we have for these products. So we feel very good about where we are. We'll give you more details on November 16 about that growth profile, but think of it in terms of innovation and geographic expansion.

所以對我來說，這是創新，是地理擴張，創新確實推動了我們為這些產品提供的下一代專利支援。所以我們對自己所處的位置感覺非常好。我們將於 11 月 16 日向您提供有關該增長概況的更多詳細信息，但請從創新和地域擴張的角度來考慮。

Our next question today comes from Laurent Favre of BNB Paribas.

今天我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Laurent Favre。

First question. The business is back roughly to the size of 2019 or 2020 but the working capital that I think you're implying for the end of this year is about $1.5 billion higher than it was back then. And I guess my question related to the framework that you've given us, Mark, how much of that $1 billion, $1.5 billion you think you can get back not just next year but also maybe in the following years. Should we assume that working capital is significantly higher now structurally compared to what it was or what it has been over the last few years?

第一個問題。該業務大致恢復到 2019 年或 2020 年的規模，但我認為您所說的今年年底的營運資金比當時高出約 15 億美元。我想我的問題與你給我們的框架有關，馬克，你認為你不僅可以在明年還可以在接下來的幾年收回這 10 億美元、15 億美元中的多少。我們是否應該假設，與過去或過去幾年相比，現在的營運資本在結構上明顯更高？

Yes, Laurent, I'll let Andrew give you some details on the working capital side. My view is when we think about restructuring the company, we're not only talking about our cost base, but we're absolutely talking about the other metrics that we look at the performance of the company, working capital be one of them. The different elements of working capital move with different speeds. Obviously, payables is a lot lower than it should be given the fact that we're not manufacturing a lot right now. So therefore, we're not buying a lot. That will change.

是的，勞倫特，我會讓安德魯給你一些有關營運資金的細節。我的觀點是，當我們考慮重組公司時，我們不僅在談論我們的成本基礎，而且絕對在談論我們關注公司績效的其他指標，營運資本就是其中之一。營運資金的不同要素以不同的速度流動。顯然，鑑於我們目前的生產量並不大，應付帳款遠低於應有的水準。因此，我們不會購買太多。這將會改變。

Inventory, we are working our way through inventory right now. Obviously, selling out of inventory reduces inventory and then we'll collect the receivables at the normal rate. I expect the metrics to get back in line through '24 and '25 in terms as a percent of revenue, how much working capital do we carry. But Andrew, if you want to give any more details on that.

庫存，我們現在正在處理庫存。顯然，售完庫存會減少庫存，然後我們將以正常利率收取應收帳款。我預計這些指標將在 24 年和 25 年恢復一致，以佔收入的百分比、我們擁有多少營運資金來衡量。但是安德魯，如果你想提供更多細節。

Certainly, Laurent, I think you're onto the right theme, which is we do expect normalization of working capital over the next 12 to 18 months. I do think it's important to remember that in the ag input space, that working capital cycle is different than other chemical or materials businesses. We buy on reasonable terms, industrial terms from our suppliers then we hold manufactured product holding inventory for -- to meet seasonal demand than have inventory ready when needed when pest pressure shows up.

當然，Laurent，我認為您的主題是正確的，即我們確實預計未來 12 至 18 個月內營運資金將正常化。我確實認為重要的是要記住，在農業投入領域，營運資金週期與其他化學品或材料業務不同。我們以合理的條件、工業條件從供應商購買產品，然後我們持有製成品的庫存，以滿足季節性需求，而不是在蟲害壓力出現時在需要時準備好庫存。

And then we sell off and on crop terms or longer term, certainly than what we pay for materials we purchase. So it's a bit of a long cash cycle that's become elongated, particularly as inventory levels have gotten out of line with the go-forward sales pace. So I think right now, the focus is really on, as I mentioned in my prepared comments on taking inventory, converting it to sales and converting it to receivables and collecting it. But that can be a good 6- to 12-month lag in that process due to the seasonal nature of the business to be able to really clear through that inventory turn it to receivables and collect it.

然後我們以作物條款或更長期的價格出售，當然比我們購買材料所支付的價格要高。因此，現金週期有點長，而且已經被拉長，特別是當庫存水準與未來的銷售速度脫節時。因此，我認為現在的重點實際上是，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，盤點庫存、將其轉換為銷售、將其轉換為應收帳款並收取。但由於業務的季節性性質，該流程可能會有 6 到 12 個月的延遲時間，才能真正清理庫存，將其轉化為應收帳款並收回。

So certainly, a good reference point, looking back a couple of years, we're trade working capital in 2021 at 9/30 was about $700 million lighter than where we are today. That's not a bad dimension. And certainly, we would think that those working capital metrics would come back in line at a more historical norms. It's just going to take 12 to 18 months to really adjust to all of the whiplash we've had in the supply chain with both the rapid growth in 2022 and now the rapid deceleration in 2023. But I think my fundamental message to you is, yes, we fully anticipate a robust working capital release in 2024 and leading into 2025.

因此，當然，這是一個很好的參考點，回顧幾年，我們在 2021 年 9 月 30 日的貿易營運資金比今天少了約 7 億美元。這不是一個壞的維度。當然，我們認為這些營運資本指標將恢復到更符合歷史標準。需要 12 到 18 個月的時間才能真正適應供應鏈中的所有問題，包括 2022 年的快速增長和 2023 年的快速減速。但我認為我向你們傳達的基本信息是，是的，我們完全預計2024年和2025 年將釋放強勁的營運資金。

And as a second question, having seen sharp normalization of pricing in LatAm, what makes you think that prices are not going to be sharply down in the northern hemisphere when you start the '24 season?

第二個問題，在看到拉丁美洲的價格急劇正常化之後，是什麼讓您認為當您開始 24 季時，北半球的價格不會大幅下降？

Yes, I wouldn't describe what we've seen in Latin America sharp. And also, Laurent, it's not broad pricing. It's more a reflection of how we account for customer inventory and how we're managing price with customer inventory going forward, it shows up in price. Obviously, some of our customers are holding higher cost inventory. We're working that through as we go through this season. So it's not broad-based price pressure. And as we indicated in the other 3 regions of the world, we actually had price increases over the period.

是的，我不會尖銳地描述我們在拉丁美洲所看到的情況。而且，勞倫特，這不是廣泛的定價。它更多地反映了我們如何計算客戶庫存以及我們如何管理未來客戶庫存的價格，它顯示在價格中。顯然，我們的一些客戶持有成本較高的庫存。在本賽季的過程中，我們正在努力解決這個問題。所以這不是廣泛的價格壓力。正如我們在世界其他 3 個地區所指出的，我們在此期間實際上出現了價格上漲。

We will continue to look at price increases next year. People should not forget there is still inflationary pressures moving through many economies. And certainly, companies like us, we have labor cost increases as many companies do. So we will not be shy from raising prices as we go through the next 12-month cycle.

我們將繼續考慮明年的價格上漲。人們不應忘記許多經濟體仍然存在通膨壓力。當然，像我們這樣的公司，我們和許多公司一樣，勞動成本也增加了。因此，在接下來的 12 個月週期中，我們不會羞於提高價格。

Our next question today comes from Aleksey Yefremov of KeyCorp.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 KeyCorp 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Continuing on the working capital team, could you give us some idea how your working capital would will trend in the next few quarters? I mean, typically, you have a build in Q1, but given the current situation, would you expect maybe no build and release of working capital in the first quarter or something else perhaps?

繼續談談營運資金團隊，您能否告訴我們您的營運資金在未來幾季的趨勢如何？我的意思是，通常情況下，您會在第一季進行建設，但考慮到目前的情況，您是否預計第一季可能不會建設和釋放營運資金或其他情況？

Sure. I'll take. This is Andrew. Look, I think the traditional working capital build you see in Q1 should be significantly lower. From an inventory perspective, we're already sitting on a substantial inventory. So our traditional end of the year, beginning of year inventory builds in advance of the Northern Hemisphere seasons, will be much less subdued, if at all.

當然。我會接受。這是安德魯。看，我認為您在第一季看到的傳統營運資金建設應該會顯著降低。從庫存角度來看，我們已經擁有大量庫存。因此，我們傳統的年底、年初庫存在北半球季節之前建立的情況將不會那麼受到抑制（如果有的話）。

I think from a receivables perspective, because we do have significant advanced payments in Q4 against sales in Q1, you don't see as much -- we won't see as much relief on the receivable side in Q1. And then the question mark is going to be how rapidly we start ramping back up production. We significantly reduced production levels, step down in Q3 and further step down in Q4. So our payables are quite depressed, how quickly we rebuild those payables and the first half of next year will have a lot of impact on it. But certainly, I would say the biggest factor that should limit the traditional big working capital pump in Q1 is there is no need to build up a significant pool of inventory going into the new year.

我認為從應收帳款的角度來看，因為我們在第四季度確實比第一季的銷售有大量的預付款，所以你看不到那麼多——我們不會在第一季的應收帳款方面看到那麼多的緩解。然後問號將是我們開始恢復生產的速度有多快。我們大幅降低了生產水平，第三季產量下降，第四季進一步下降。所以我們的應付帳款相當低迷，我們重建這些應付帳款的速度有多快，明年上半年將對其產生很大的影響。但當然，我想說，限制第一季傳統的大型營運資金注入的最大因素是，沒有必要在新的一年建立大量庫存。

Thanks, Andrew. And sticking with working capital, your inventories on absolute dollar basis, I mean, they declined sequentially, but given you've shut down many of your production lines and maybe would have expected a bigger drop. Could you just talk about that? Am I wrong here? And what's going on with inventory? Would you expect that number just come down more sharply in Q4 and Q1?

謝謝，安德魯。堅持使用營運資金，以絕對美元為基礎的庫存，我的意思是，它們連續下降，但考慮到您已經關閉了許多生產線，也許預計會出現更大的下降。你能簡單談談這個嗎？我這裡錯了嗎？庫存狀況如何？您是否預計該數字在第四季和第一季會大幅下降？

Yes, Aleksey, let me just make a comment upfront and then Andrew can give you some of the details. You've got to think carefully about how the inventory is and where it is. We have a lot of work in progress. From the moment we place an order with either our toll manufacturers or our own facilities, it can take 6 months for those products to hit the warehouses to sell to customers. So once you start slowing that engine down, it takes a while for that to actually stop dead. We're out of that period now. So we do expect that inventories in Q4 will come down considerably. But Andrew, do you want to make any comments?

是的，阿列克西，讓我先發表評論，然後安德魯可以給你一些細節。您必須仔細考慮庫存情況以及庫存在哪裡。我們還有很多工作正在進行中。從我們向委託製造商或我們自己的工廠下訂單的那一刻起，這些產品可能需要 6 個月的時間才能到達倉庫並銷售給客戶。因此，一旦你開始減慢引擎的速度，它就需要一段時間才能真正停止。我們現在已經過了那個時期了。因此，我們確實預計第四季的庫存將大幅下降。但是安德魯，你想發表什麼評論嗎？

Yes. I think just building on that in Q3, look, sales were $250 million lower than what we expected in the quarter. And that's directly a big chunk of inventory reduction that we would have expected to achieve in Q3. And I think as Mark has commented, you can't stop a super tanker in 1 quarter. It does take time to slow things down. You should expect to see a more substantial drop in inventory from 9/30 to 12/31 '23.

是的。我認為僅在第三季的基礎上，銷售額就比我們本季的預期低了 2.5 億美元。這直接是我們預計在第三季實現的庫存削減的一大塊。我認為正如馬克所說，你無法在一個季度內阻止一艘超級油輪。確實需要時間來放慢速度。從 2023 年 9 月 30 日到 12 月 31 日，您應該會看到庫存出現更大幅度的下降。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的凱文·麥卡錫。

Andrew, it sounds like you've had at least some preliminary discussions with the banks regarding your covenants. Can you walk us through the path of deleveraging that you would foresee over the next several quarters and maybe talk through some of the more salient covenants and cost to amend those would be the first part of the question. And then longer term, I think you've been running the balance sheet with a goal of about 2.5x leverage. Are you attempted to reduce that goal on a structural basis, given the volatility that we've seen in the market?

安德魯，聽起來您至少已經與銀行就您的契約進行了一些初步討論。您能否向我們介紹您預計在接下來的幾個季度中的去槓桿化道路，也許可以談談一些更重要的契約以及修改這些契約的成本將是問題的第一部分。從長遠來看，我認為您一直以大約 2.5 倍槓桿率的目標來運行資產負債表。考慮到我們在市場上看到的波動，您是否試圖在結構性基礎上降低這一目標？

Look, I think the covenant discussions are well underway, going very positively. We'd expect to have something more concrete to disclose next week. So some more to come there. Most recent covenant amendment we did with 100% support of the bank group and at no cost. This covenant amendment may cost us a little bit, but it won't be a material expense. So a reserve comment until we completed the discussions, but discussions are well advanced. We have gotten very positive feedback from the bank group. And just to reiterate, they see the need for us to adjust and go through this period of resetting our size of our business with this industry-wide channel reset really is a transitory business condition. So the banks have been very supportive of the company.

看，我認為聖約討論正在順利進行，進展非常積極。我們預計下週將披露更具體的內容。所以還有更多的人要來這裡。我們最近進行的契約修訂得到了銀行集團 100% 的支持，並且沒有任何成本。這個盟約的修改可能會讓我們付出一些代價，但不會是物質開支。因此，在我們完成討論之前保留評論，但討論已經進展順利。我們從銀行集團得到了非常正面的回饋。重申一下，他們認為我們需要調整並經歷這段重新調整業務規模的時期，整個產業的通路重置確實是一個暫時的業務狀況。因此銀行一直非常支持該公司。

We will, again, adjust the covenant to give ourselves room as we're both reducing debt and allowing the trailing 12-month EBITDA to recover. So as Mark pointed to, certainly, Q4, the guidance we have today is challenging. Q1 not likely to improve. And in Q2, we would expect to see an inflection point and start to see trailing 12-month EBITDA begin to recover. That will help with leverage. And then certainly, any of the cash that we generate beyond paying the dividend at its current level, all of that cash flow will go to reducing debt. And including -- I want to be very clear, because there have been some questions about this, we have $400 million in senior notes that are due in February of 2024.

我們將再次調整契約，為自己留出空間，因為我們既要減少債務，又要讓過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 恢復。因此，正如馬克所指出的，當然，第四季度，我們今天的指導具有挑戰性。 Q1 不太可能改善。在第二季度，我們預計會出現一個拐點，並開始看到過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 開始復甦。這將有助於槓桿作用。當然，除了支付當前水平的股息之外，我們產生的任何現金，所有現金流都將用於減少債務。我想非常明確地說，因為對此存在一些疑問，我們有 4 億美元的優先票據將於 2024 年 2 月到期。

We will be redeeming those notes this quarter. So we'll have no near-term maturities to address. And that's a part of the whole conversation with the bank group on the covenant. So we'll have some further information for you in the next week on the covenant.

我們將在本季贖回這些票據。因此，我們沒有近期的到期問題需要解決。這是與銀行集團就該契約進行的整個對話的一部分。因此，我們將在下週為您提供有關聖約的更多資訊。

In terms of longer-term financial policy, I'm going to reserve comment there to our Investor Day. I will state that the 2.5% target leverage on average has been our long-standing policy. We've run north of that on average for the past several years. So that's something that we've had some very active discussions, Mark, myself, along with the Board. So we'll bring some further comments on that in 2 weeks at the Investor Day.

就長期財務政策而言，我將在投資者日保留評論。我要聲明的是，平均2.5%的目標槓桿率是我們的長期政策。過去幾年，我們的平均值已經超過了這一水平。因此，馬克本人以及董事會對此進行了一些非常積極的討論。因此，我們將在兩週後的投資者日就此發表一些進一步的評論。

That's helpful. And then secondly, Mark, to follow up on your prior comments regarding pricing and also the sales outlook for 2024. Would you expect price to trend flat, up or down next year versus 2023?

這很有幫助。其次，Mark，請跟進您之前有關定價以及 2024 年銷售前景的評論。與 2023 年相比，您預計明年的價格會持平、上漲還是下跌？

Little early to tell, Kevin. We're really not thinking through the volume price mix just yet. Generally speaking, price tends to be sticky for FMC over the years. We've seen that. We do tend to raise prices every year, even if it's only 1% to cover some form of inflation in different parts of the world. So a little early to say. I'll give you more details on November 16 when we talk about 2014.

凱文，現在說得太早了。我們確實還沒有考慮數量價格組合。總體而言，多年來FMC的價格趨於黏性。我們已經看到了。我們確實傾向於每年提高價格，即使只是 1%，以彌補世界不同地區某種形式的通貨膨脹。所以說有點早。 11 月 16 日我們談論 2014 年時，我將向您提供更多詳細資訊。

The volumes -- sorry, Kevin, just to finish that conversation. I would say just our new product introductions come through on volume for us, not dry. So that growth in new products would show up in volume expansion.

抱歉，凱文，我只是為了結束這場對話。我想說的是，我們的新產品介紹只是批量完成的，而不是乾巴巴的。因此，新產品的成長將體現在銷售量的擴張上。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的勞倫斯·亞歷山大。

Just 2 questions about framing. One is, if you think about the lost sales this year, can you give us a rough split between how much you think is order timing moved into the first half of next year? How much is permanently lost? And how much you think you would recover by, I don't know, '25, '26?

只有2個關於框架的問題。一是，如果您考慮到今年的銷售損失，您能否給我們一個粗略的劃分，您認為訂單時間有多少會被推遲到明年上半年？有多少永久丟失？我不知道，你認為你會在 25 年、26 年恢復多少？

It's -- Laurence, there is no push of sales into next year. This is all real inventory that's being held in distribution, retail and is being removed. It does not get pushed. So I would say there's 0 going into next year. It truly is a reset of bringing those inventories around the world down and then growing from that new point onwards.

勞倫斯，明年的銷售量不會增加。這些都是在分銷、零售中持有並正在清除的真實庫存。它不會被推動。所以我想說明年的人數是 0。這確實是一種重置，即降低世界各地的庫存，然後從新的點開始成長。

Okay. And secondly, on diamide, just for context, can you give us a sense for how many reformulations you're introducing, I don't know, either annually or over the next 3, 5 years and how that compares with the cadence across the rest of your portfolio? And then also just for context, there have been other large chemistry classes that have gone off patent, what has been the typical growth trajectory for those over 5, 10 years after they went off patent?

好的。其次，關於二酰胺，僅供參考，您能否讓我們了解一下您每年或未來 3、5 年將推出多少次重新配方，我不知道，以及與整個市場的節奏相比如何。你的投資組合的其餘部分？另外，僅供參考，還有其他大型化學類別的專利已過期，那麼在專利過期 5 年、10 年後，這些化學類別的典型成長軌跡是什麼？

Yes. I'm going to give you those details on November 16 because we have a session on diamides and the overall growth of the portfolio. So we'll put it all in context for you. Suffice to say that the number of formulations accelerates as we go over the next 5 to 10 years. And those products are already in our pipeline that we'll talk about, well documented in terms of what happens to molecules when they go off patent. Generally, the market expands, pricing alleviates, but volume goes up. And the net-net is you have an expansion of the market itself plus an expansion in overall dollars of profitability. I don't think the diamides will be any different. They may -- the difference may be the fact that they are so fragmented and different types of patents in different parts of the world. You may see that coming off in different regions. And we kind of showed that in the slides that we put forward.

是的。我將在 11 月 16 日向您提供這些詳細信息，因為我們有一個關於二酰胺和投資組合整體增長的會議。因此，我們將為您提供所有內容。可以說，隨著未來 5 到 10 年的發展，配方數量會不斷增加。這些產品已經在我們的管道中，我們將討論這些產品，並詳細記錄了專利到期後分子會發生什麼情況。一般來說，市場擴大，價格下降，但成交量上升。淨淨就是市場本身的擴張以及整體獲利能力的擴張。我不認為二醯胺會有什麼不同。它們可能——差異可能在於它們如此分散，並且在世界不同地區擁有不同類型的專利。您可能會看到這種情況在不同地區出現。我們在我們提出的幻燈片中展示了這一點。

We have our own example, Sulfentrazone, Clomazone, that have been off-patent for many years. They continue to grow, they remain profitable. We don't see any difference for those diamides, but we'll put all that in context for you on the 16.

我們有自己的例子，磺胺草酮（Sulfentrazone）、異惡草酮（Clomazone），它們的專利已經過期很多年了。他們繼續成長，保持獲利。我們沒有發現這些二酰胺有任何差異，但我們將在 16 日為您提供所有相關資訊。

So your bias is, they're in line or better than average as opposed to worse than average?

所以你的偏見是，他們符合或優於平均水平，而不是低於平均水平？

You mean in terms of growth?

你指的是成長方面嗎？

Yes, in terms of what happens, in terms of that sort of typical trajectory? Or the historical example. Do you think they're kind of at least in line with the effort?

是的，就發生的情況而言，就那種典型的軌跡而言？還是歷史上的例子。您認為他們至少符合我們的努力嗎？

Yes, I would say the diamides will be higher than the average just because of the attributes that they have.

是的，我想說二醯胺會高於平均水平，因為它們具有這些屬性。

Next question today comes from Mike Harrison of Seaport Research Partners.

今天的下一個問題來自海港研究合作夥伴的麥克哈里森。

Just sticking with the diamides discussion, you guys have worked pretty hard to enable potential competitors to work with you on licensing and other commercial arrangements. You gave some details in the slides there. But how should we think about potential competitors? You mentioned there were 5 large ones and more than 60 smaller ones who have taken that avenue and are working with you and they're now customers versus potential competitors out there who are looking to go at a load and create generic versions of your diamides without working with you. And I guess, how do you see that kind of evolving over the next several years?

只要堅持二醯胺的討論，你們就已經非常努力地讓潛在的競爭對手能夠與你們在許可和其他商業安排方面進行合作。您在幻燈片中提供了一些細節。但我們該如何看待潛在的競爭對手呢？您提到有5 家大型企業和60 多家小型企業已經採取了這一途徑並與您合作，他們現在是客戶，而不是潛在的競爭對手，他們希望在不使用任何技術的情況下大舉生產您的二醯胺的通用版本。和你一起工作。我想，您如何看待未來幾年這種發展？

Yes. I mean listen, that will obviously happen as patents roll off and jurisdictions change, generic products will come. I mean, that's normal in this industry. We see it every molecule that has ever existed. What we're doing about that, changing the formulations, bringing new technologies into the diamides as we just talked about, expanding that geographic base. Those are the things that we're doing. The branding of our products, we have extremely strong branding around the world. The brands that we sell are some of the best-known brands in the pesticide industry. That is a very powerful tool in places like India, in places like Brazil, brand matters, quality, assurance of performance.

是的。我的意思是聽著，隨著專利的推出和司法管轄區的變化，這顯然會發生，通用產品將會出現。我的意思是，這在這個行業很正常。我們看到曾經存在過的每一個分子。我們正在做的事情是，改變配方，將新技術引入二醯胺，正如我們剛才談到的那樣，擴大地理基礎。這些就是我們正在做的事情。我們產品的品牌，我們在全球擁有極為強大的品牌。我們銷售的品牌是農藥行業中一些最知名的品牌。在印度、巴西等地，這是一個非常強大的工具，品牌很重要，品質和性能保證也很重要。

So all you bring all those things together, and we'll talk about that on the 16. Those are the types of activities that allow you to continue to grow your market share in an expanding market.

因此，您將所有這些事情放在一起，我們將在 16 日討論這一點。這些活動類型可以讓您在不斷擴大的市場中繼續增加市場份額。

All right. And then in terms of the -- where you see channel inventories today and your visibility on normalizing order patterns. Could you maybe walk us around the world and talk about where you see those channel inventory levels? I guess, are the challenges right now mostly focused on Latin America? Or is visibility still pretty limited in other regions as well?

好的。然後就您今天看到的渠道庫存以及您對訂單模式正常化的可見性而言。您能否帶我們環遊世界並談談您在哪裡看到這些渠道庫存水準？我想，現在的挑戰主要集中在拉丁美洲嗎？或者其他地區的能見度仍然相當有限？

Yes. It's not great right now, Mike. It's very difficult to walk around the world. You could tell by the types of results that FMC is putting out there as well as our competitors that everybody is having the same issues in judging where the market is.

是的。現在情況不太好，麥克。步行環遊世界非常困難。從 FMC 以及我們的競爭對手發布的結果類型可以看出，每個人在判斷市場位置時都遇到相同的問題。

I think the focus is on Latin America because Latin America is now at the beginning of its season, where we've had time in the Northern Hemisphere to work through some of this in U.S., Canada, obviously, Europe. So I think Latin America has all the focus now just because it's late to the game in terms of where its season is. That does not mean to say that there is no channel inventory elsewhere in the world. Hence, my comments, I see this working through Q1, possibly into Q2 and then off we go. So I think that first half is where we're really focused on to make sure that we understand as we come out of that period exactly where are we and how is volume flowing.

我認為重點是拉丁美洲，因為拉丁美洲現在正處於產季的開始階段，我們在北半球有時間在美國、加拿大，當然還有歐洲完成一些工作。所以我認為拉丁美洲現在成為了所有的焦點，因為就其季節而言，它的比賽已經太晚了。這並不意味著世界其他地方沒有渠道庫存。因此，我的評論是，我認為這種情況會在第一季發揮作用，可能會進入第二季度，然後我們就可以開始了。因此，我認為上半年是我們真正關注的地方，以確保我們在走出那個時期時了解我們到底在哪裡以及交易量如何流動。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Mark, I wanted to try to square some of your preliminary comments on 2024. I recognize they're at a high level. I understand raw material costs can be down next year. I understand that you're going to have some restructuring cost savings, and that's going to help EBITDA grow year-over-year, where I would appreciate some more color just on the top line. I think you said you expected FMC to have sales growth next year. And I'm just thinking through like if 1Q has to lap what we've seen in 2Q through 4Q '23, which is kind of like a mid- to high 20s sales decline. And I think you only had volume down about 3%, yes, 3% in 1Q '23.

馬克，我想嘗試糾正您對 2024 年的一些初步評論。我知道它們的水平很高。我知道明年原物料成本可能會下降。我知道您將節省一些重組成本，這將有助於 EBITDA 逐年成長，我希望在頂線上有更多的色彩。我想你說過你預計 FMC 明年的銷售額會成長。我只是在想，第一季是否必須超越我們在 2023 年第二季到第四季所看到的情況，這有點像 20 世紀 20 年代中期到中期的銷售下降。我認為 23 年第一季的銷量僅下降了約 3%，是的，下降了 3%。

In my model, I just sort of assumed that the headwind from lapping things in 1Q '23 on the top line is kind of too much to overcome in the balance of the year to get growth, particularly if we assume that once the destocking is over, it's just sort of a reset of sales levels and when we go back to the industry growing 3% and perhaps you guys doing a bit better than that. So is there something I'm not thinking about, right, that helps you get to the idea that you can overcome the 1Q and potentially even a little bit of a 2Q top line headwind to get full year sales growth next year?

在我的模型中，我只是假設 23 年第一季營收的逆風在今年的剩餘時間內難以克服，無法實現增長，特別是如果我們假設一旦去庫存結束，這只是銷售水平的重置，當我們回到產業成長3% 時，也許你們做得比這更好一點。那麼，是否有一些我沒有考慮到的事情可以幫助您認識到，您可以克服第一季甚至可能第二季的一點頂線逆風，從而實現明年全年的銷售成長？

Yes. I think there are. I'm not going to go into those details today because I actually were preparing for all of that as we go into our Investor Day. You've got to understand that the NPI, the growth of the new product is accelerating. So that gives you a tailwind. You do have a full season of LatAm in the second half of the year, which is also a positive tailwind. You take those big pieces together, we believe we'll have positive growth next year.

是的。我認為有。我今天不打算討論這些細節，因為當我們進入投資者日時，我實際上正在為所有這些做好準備。你必須明白，NPI，即新產品的成長正在加速。所以這給你帶來了順風。今年下半年，拉丁美洲確實有一個完整的季節，這也是一個積極的推動力。把這些大的部分放在一起，我們相信明年我們將實現積極的成長。

Okay. Well, I look forward to the detail on that in a couple of weeks. And maybe just as a follow-up, just trying to understand the inventory drawdown that we're seeing through the supply chain. Obviously, the numbers are quite incredible. Where would you have guessed a year ago or so that those levels were? And is it really just a function of the sort of twin effect of they overstocked a bit during the supply chain challenges, and then we've gotten the interest rate shock, which has sort of swung the pendulum 100% in the other direction. I'm just trying to understand how the channel was managing to hold -- what incentivized them to hold all this inventory this whole time?

好的。好吧，我期待幾週後得到詳細信息。也許只是作為後續行動，只是試著了解我們在供應鏈中看到的庫存減少。顯然，這些數字是相當令人難以置信的。大約一年前，您會猜到這些水平是多少？這是否真的只是他們在供應鏈挑戰期間庫存過多的雙重效應的函數，然後我們遇到了利率衝擊，這在某種程度上使鐘擺100%朝另一個方向擺動。我只是想了解該頻道是如何設法持有的——是什麼激勵他們一直持有所有這些庫存？

Yes, I think, listen, I think the your latter premise is absolutely right in 2021 and 2022. Clearly, there was a lot of uncertainty around supply. There was a lot of price increases. I think the thing that called the industry out is that growers around the world were holding inventory. And I don't think that was factored into people's calculations. That has obviously been much more than anybody thought and that's one of the big catalysts that we saw starting to unwind in Q2 and here we are today. So I think it's not only -- don't just focus on distribution and retail. The grower component here was much bigger than I think anybody thought.

是的，我認為，聽著，我認為你的後一個前提在 2021 年和 2022 年是絕對正確的。顯然，供應存在許多不確定性。價格上漲了很多。我認為導致該行業出局的原因是世界各地的種植者都持有庫存。我認為人們的計算中沒有考慮到這一點。這顯然比任何人想像的要多得多，這是我們看到第二季度開始放鬆的重要催化劑之一，而我們今天就到了這裡。所以我認為這不僅僅是——不要只專注於分銷和零售。這裡的種植者比例比我想像的要大得多。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan of RBC. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。請繼續。

So I guess you've addressed a lot of the issues around the diamide franchise. But just so we're completely clear, 2 questions around this. So it sounded like the EBITDA contributions from the diamide is relatively high, north of 40% of company EBITDA or maybe around $500 million or $600 million annually. Are you saying that you don't necessarily see risk to that. Generally speaking, you would maintain that level of contribution, EBITDA contribution from that franchise? And if you do see any deterioration that the new product growth and maybe some of the other stools you've added, such as biologicals would fill that gap. So there really isn't really any risk to losing large chunks of profitability within the company?

所以我想您已經解決了有關二酰胺特許經營權的許多問題。但我們已經完全清楚了，有兩個問題圍繞著這個問題。因此，聽起來二醯胺對 EBITDA 的貢獻相對較高，超過該公司 EBITDA 的 40%，或每年約 5 億或 6 億美元。您是說您不一定認為這樣做有風險嗎？一般來說，您會維持該特許經營權的貢獻水準、EBITDA 貢獻嗎？如果您確實看到任何惡化，那麼新產品的增長以及您添加的其他一些糞便（例如生物製品）可能會填補這一空白。那麼公司內部真的不存在失去大量獲利能力的風險嗎？

Yes, absolutely. We don't see that at all. November 16, I'm going to paint the picture for you as how we grow over the next 36 months and what we look like 10 years out, you'll see that there are a number of components that aid that growth. We are absolutely committed to continue to grow the value of the diamides in terms of its contribution to the company. Now you will see there are other parts that we're introducing that are growing much faster than the diamides. So don't think of FMC as being a diamide story. Yes, the diamides are incredibly important to us. It's a fantastic franchise. Anybody would give their right arm to have this franchise.

是的，一點沒錯。我們根本看不到這一點。 11 月 16 日，我將為您描繪我們在未來 36 個月內的增長情況以及 10 年後的情況，您將看到有許多因素有助於這種增長。我們絕對致力於持續提高二醯胺對公司的貢獻的價值。現在您會看到我們推出的其他部分的成長速度比二醯胺快得多。因此，不要將 FMC 視為二醯胺的故事。是的，二醯胺對我們來說非常重要。這是一個很棒的特許經營權。任何人都會願意獻出自己的右手來獲得這個特許經營權。

What we're telling you is we have other things that are actually growing faster and will become more important to the company over the next 3 to 10 years. So I think that's the story that people are missing. You're assuming we're going to drop EBITDA in diamide, that is not the case. EBITDA is going to grow with the diamide. You also have the additive of all the new products and the new platforms that we're building. That's the total story, and I think that's getting missed today.

我們要告訴您的是，我們還有其他一些實際上成長更快的東西，並且在未來 3 到 10 年內對公司將變得更加重要。所以我認為這就是人們所缺乏的故事。您假設我們將降低二醯胺的 EBITDA，但事實並非如此。 EBITDA 將隨著二醯胺的成長而成長。您還擁有我們正在建立的所有新產品和新平台的添加劑。這就是整個故事，我認為今天人們忽略了這一點。

And then just on the supply chain itself, what are some of the steps that you can take to get better intelligence of inventory levels, whether it be at the distributor level or even as maybe has happened in the last year at the farmer level, is there further intelligence you can get through your grower network or your distributor network? And do you feel like there's accurate communication about those inventory levels? What's so different around this time that the magnitude of destocking is just so much more pronounced?

然後就供應鏈本身而言，您可以採取哪些步驟來更好地了解庫存水平，無論是在分銷商層面，還是去年在農民層面上發生的情況，是您可以透過種植者網路或經銷商網路獲得更多情報嗎？您覺得這些庫存水準是否得到了準確的溝通？這次有何不同，以至於去庫存的幅度如此明顯？

Yes. Listen, it's a very, very fragmented structure in this industry. It is very difficult at the grower level to understand what people are holding when you have millions of farmers around the world. We obviously talk to our big distributor partners around the world, and they were caught out by this. So I think the industry has a lot to learn in terms of how much inventory is set out there. We are going to be doing some things internally ourselves. I don't want to say what they are, to try and aid our demand forecast accuracy and understanding what inventory is out there.

是的。聽著，這個行業的結構非常非常分散。當世界各地有數百萬農民時，種植者很難了解人們持有什麼。顯然，我們與世界各地的大型經銷商合作夥伴進行了交談，他們對此感到困惑。因此，我認為該行業在庫存量方面還有很多值得學習的地方。我們將在內部做一些事情。我不想說它們是什麼，只是為了幫助我們準確預測需求並了解庫存情況。

But I think we have to recognize, it's never going to be 100% accurate. It is just too fragmented. But there are things that we've learned over the last 12 months that we can apply to our thinking especially as we're planning our supply chain activities. So yes, there are learnings, some of them I want to keep for ourselves. But generally speaking, I think the industry does have to do a better job of communicating where inventory sits at any point of that value chain.

但我認為我們必須認識到，它永遠不會 100% 準確。它太碎片化了。但我們在過去 12 個月中學到的一些東西可以應用到我們的思考中，特別是在我們規劃供應鏈活動時。所以，是的，有一些經驗教訓，其中一些我想為自己保留。但總的來說，我認為該行業確實必須更好地溝通庫存在價值鏈任何一點的位置。

Our final question today comes from Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

I know that there's going to be a lot more detail on some of these topics at the Investor Day. But I was hoping maybe as a step back and I understand there's a lot of channel intelligence refresh is going to happen on your end as well. As you're thinking about 2024 should -- do you think it's 2020, 2021 kind of shipments that are a more appropriate baseline for future growth? Or kind of cumulatively where do you think the inventory build both in your distribution channel and the farm customers actually built up that we can think about a proper base off which to grow longer term?

我知道在投資者日將會有關於其中一些主題的更多細節。但我希望退一步說，我知道你們這邊也會發生很多通路情報更新。當您考慮 2024 年時，您認為 2020 年、2021 年的出貨量是未來成長更合適的基準嗎？或者說，您認為您的分銷管道和農場客戶實際建立的庫存在哪裡，我們可以考慮一個長期成長的適當基礎？

Yes. I think for us, as we just talked about, I think we reset as we go through Q4, Q1, much more balanced in Q2, that's where you grow from. Industry typically grows at 3%-ish can be 0, can be a little more. Think of that as sort of the second half move. You're getting more normal growth patterns.

是的。我認為對我們來說，正如我們剛才談到的，我認為我們在經歷第四季度、第一季時會重置，在第二季度更加平衡，這就是你成長的地方。工業通常以 3% 左右的速度成長，可以是 0，也可以多一點。將其視為下半場的動作。您的生長模式變得更加正常。

You also have to remember that inventory doesn't sit still at any one point of this value chain. It can move from grower back to retail and retail back to distribution. So at any one point in time, inventory looks different. That's another complicating factor. Having said all of that, we expect this to reset as we go through the first half of next year, predominantly Q1. Second half of the year will be much -- should be much more normal in terms of growth and inventory management. That's how we see it.

您還必須記住，庫存不會在該價值鏈的任何一點上保持不變。它可以從種植者轉向零售，再從零售轉向分銷。因此，在任何一個時間點，庫存看起來都是不同的。這是另一個複雜的因素。話雖如此，我們預計這種情況會在明年上半年（主要是第一季）重置。就成長和庫存管理而言，下半年應該會更加正常。我們就是這樣看的。

Yes. All right. Adam, sorry, we don't have time for a follow-up. I do appreciate the questions. Thank you. That's all the time we have for the call.

是的。好的。亞當，抱歉，我們沒有時間跟進。我很欣賞這些問題。謝謝。這就是我們通話的所有時間。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your line.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。