富美實 (FMC) 2002 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • For FMC corporation. Phone lines will be placed on listen-only throughout the conference. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Fuwould like to ask a question during this time, simply press *, plus the 1 on your telephone keypad. Questions will be taken in the order they are received. If you are on speaker phone, please pick up the handset before asking a question. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. I will turn over to Mr. Eric Norris, director of investor relations for FMC. Mr. Norris, you may begin.

  • Eric Norris - Director of Investor Relations

  • Good morning and welcome to FMC's second quarter 2002 conference call. I would like to remind everyone our discussion will encompass certain statements forward-looking and subject to various risks and uncertainties concerning factors summarized in the form 10-k and other SEC filings. Such informati on represents our best judgment, based on information available today, actual results may vary based upon risks and uncertainties. The agenda follows. Bill Walter, chairman, president and CEO will provide information about financial performance and key drivers and expectations for the second half of 2002. After Bill's remarks, Kim Foster(phonetic), senior vice president and CFO will provide information and we will take your questions. It is ply pleasure to turn over to bill Walter. Bill.

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Thanks and good morning to all of you. Let me begin with an overview of the quarter. Sales were down 8% year over year, as a result of several things. First, a shift within ag products from the second quarter to the second half of 2002 as a result of planning delays, channel inventory reductions and refocus will product lines, which we previously announced. Second reason was lower prices and loss of a major customer at Foret, our Spanish subsidiary. Partially offsetting decline was solid growth in BioPolymer and lithium. Gross margins declined 4% points to 36%, as a result of the lower selling prices in Industrial Chemicals and absence of a $10 million profit protection payment in ag. SG and A spending was down 10%, principally the result of restructuring within Agricultural Products and also due to lower overhead spending throughout the corporation. A 19% drop in R and D spending was due to restructuring and refocusing in Ag. Second quarter earnings per share before special items were 71 cents, down from $1.27 last year. But, above the consensus estimates of 65 cents per share. Over half of the year to year decline in earnings was in Ag, which I will explain in detail shortly. The balance of the EPS shortfall was result of lower sales in Industri al Chemicals, particularly Foret. Let me provide detail on the results by segment. First Ag. Significant driver in ag was shift in sales from second quarter to the second half of the year. This shift was a result of several things. First, North American distributors actions to reduce working capital from prior year levels have resulted in lower cell necessary insecticides and herbicides. Similarly in Brazil, the economic uncertainty has resulted in tighter working capital management by customers, shifting sales closer to growing season, which as you know are characteristically in the third and fourth quarters. The second reason for Ag sales decline was wet midwest weather early in the planning season, which delayed corn plantings and pushed sales of herbicide into the third quarter. The third reason in G was the strategic refocusing, which we a-announced previously. That couple with labeling have resulted in greater sales in the third and fourth quarters than in previous years. Some of the margin benefit the shift into the second half, however, will be offset by higher manufacturing variances, resulting from the (inaudible) plant in Q1. Another major driver was absence of $10 million DuPont profit protection payment, partially offset by approximately $5 million of SG and A savings from the previously announced restructuring program. Finally, in Ag, poor market conditions in Asia, particularly in Australia, resulted in lower sales and earnings versus the prior year. Switching to Specialty. BioPolymer experienced growth with strong volumes in most markets. Improving prices and margins in BioPolymer specialty businesses were offset by food ingredients and pharmaceutical markets. Lithium continued to see the impact of lower volumes in the upstream commodity markets. However, there was offset by strong butyllithium and specialty organic demand in the synthesis markets. Within Industrial Chemicals lower soda ash volumes due to the conversion of certain customers to cost for outgoing requirements was offset by higher soda ash prices versus the year earlier quarter. Lower bicarbonate and sales and earns were a factor in the quarter. Peroxygen higher hydrogen peroxide driven by non-pulp markets offset the impact of lower overall selling prices and lower pulp volumes versus the second quarter of 2001. In specialty peroxygens were offset by - somewhat offset by stronger (inaudible) acid sales. It has been mentioned earlier, Foret lost a major detergent customer. Lower selling prices across Foret's product lines were offset by lower raw material costs. Result necessary domestic phosphorus business were depressed by the continued difficulties at the PPA plant. These difficulties forced Astaris to incur additional costs and to resort to purchases higher cost raw materials from external sources. Additionally, Astaris (inaudible) than in the year earlier period. Continued weak end market demand and lower selling prices further depressed Astaris's results in the quarter. Lower environmental spending, however, had a favorably impact on FMC's earnings versus last year. Clearly the second quarter was fill wide challenges. In addition to the loss of the customer in Europe and PPA start-up problems, Moody's also downgraded our debt to BA-1. Moody's downgrade came soon after we issued 3.25 million shares of common stock, a step Moody's earlier indicated should be sufficient to making us sustain our credit rating. Obviously I am disappointed with this series of events and recognize the impact it has had on our objective to create shareholders value. I want to ensure you we are taking actions to address each of these issues. First, at Foret, we have significantly reduced manufacturing cost to offset lower volume and selling prices. We have also had success in securing new STPB in regions outside of Europe. We expect these steps will limit the ongoing impact of the customer loss in the third and fourth quarter results. Secondly, Astaris has addressed mechanical issues it experienced in the PPA plant and has improved its performance. This improvement is expected to sustain itself and gain further momentum into the third and fourth quarters. Finally, preparations to address our near-term liquidity needs are nearly complete. We have finalized overall structure and selected the banks to lead early renewal of revolving credit agreement, including a (inaudible). All of this will be launched during the third quarter and completed well in advance of the upcoming maturities late in the year. Let me turn to the outlook for second half of the year. We do expect improvements resulting in Agricultural Products and are (inaudible) efforts initiated in the first quarter to produce stronger second half in ag with larger third quarter than in the fourth quarter. We also believe the cost improvements we have implemented in Industrial Chemicals will produce materially stronger results in the second half of '02, versus the first half, with more of that benefit, however, coming in the fourth quarter, rather than the third. Finally, we expect spec Specialty Chemicals to be flat with the first. Taking this into consideration, we are generally comfortable with the consensus estimates that exist for both the third quarter and the full year. With that, let me turn the call over to Kim Foster for brief review of key financial items. Kim.

  • Kim Foster - Senior VP and CFO

  • Thanks, Bill. And good morning, everyone. As usual, I will cover the key component of the financials not covered in Bill's remarks. Corporate expense of 9.3 million was essentially in line with the 9 million quarterly run REIT that I indicated in last quarter's conference call. We are on track with implementing new systems and completing staffing requirements for the corporate functions of the new FMC. Other expense of 1.8 million was in line with expectations. Items included in this category are susceptible to variability on a quarterly basis, the second quarter results should represent reasonable estimate for the quarterly run REIT for the remainder of the year. For the quarter, depreciation and amortization amounted to 28.9 million, while capital expenditures were 15.6 million. The first half depreciation and amortization of 55.1 million is a good predictor of second half performance. First half capital spending of 35.4 million reflects our focus on cash flow and the absence of any material requirements for expansion capital. We expect to continue to focus on strict capital control in the second half of 2002 and while the second half capital spending will not be as low as the first half due to the timing of projects, I expect capex to be in the range of $90 million for the full year. Net debt of 908 million headquarters in, compares to 1 billion, 48 million at the end of the first quarter. The lower debt reflects impact of equity offering in early June and normal seasonal inductions in working capital, which also occur primarily in June. Net interest expense, including our share of Astaris net special was 18.4 million, compared to 17.1 million in the first quarter. The interest expense was higher in the second quarter, primarily because the average debt levels were higher in the second quarter. Interest expense in the third quarter should roughly be in line with the first quarter. We are also reporting second quarter restructuring charges of 7.4 million dollars on pre-tax basis. These charges are consistent with our focus on cost reduction and cost of worth. Four.3 million relates to severence within our corporate segments. 3.1 million relates to premiums paid in connection with the redemption of FMC's 6.75 debentures exchangeable under shares. Given the volatility in gold prices, we believe in our economic interest to call the debentures. Lastly, let me make a few comments on refinancing. We expect to launch refinancing within the next few weeks and complete the package well in advance of the credit expiration and bond maturities in the fourth quarter. The integrated package will address the liquidity needs of the next three years and consist of three-year revolving credit facility, four to six year term loan and possibly a notes offering. We have not finalized the the terms of the offerings and cannot comment on specifics. Eric, I would like to turn back to you.

  • Eric Norris - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Kim. That concludes formal remarks. I will turn it over to the operator, who will remind you how to ask questions. Operator. Operator, do we have questions in the queue? 00:14:17

  • Operator

  • Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, press * and the number 1. Your first question is from Kevin McCarty of Banc of America Securities.

  • Analyst

  • Good morning. Question on foreign exchange. U.S. dollars has weakened quite a bit since we last convened. I was wondering if you can run through your businesses and talk about opportunities and risks in that context?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • I will be happy to. Let me deal with the easiest of the segments. That is Industrial Chemicals. Except for Foret, which is largely a U.S. business and is not affected by exchange rates in any meaningful way, except in export markets where we are competing with foreign producers. Obviously there the benefit is favorable. In the Spanish subsidiary, we are translating euros back into bigger dollars. I don't think it will affect the competitiveness of Foret one way or the other. In the other businesses both Ag and Specialty, there is a greater impact and more complex. It would probably take me an hour to explain all of that complexity. Short-term, we don't except weakening dollar to have a material affect overall on FMC, as we are virtually hedged for all of our revenues and costs that we incur in other currency.

  • Analyst

  • Are you hedged on Brazilian currency?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Fully hedged on that.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Question on Ag. You stated a number of factors affecting that business, including inventory in the pipeline, weather and a mixed shift. When I look at the top line decline of about 15% year over year, I was wondering if you could try to break that down, the amount each of those factors contributed?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Oh, boy, Kevin. I don't have that data available. This is a real wag and if subsequent to this call we find out the wag is incorrect, we will get back to you and correct it. Probably 40 to 50% of it is the shift in the business. The balance is probably evenly split between the other two, the inventory reductions in both North America and Brazil and the weak, early midwest corn market. Again, that is a guess, Kevin.

  • Analyst

  • Sure. That helps. Last question and I will get back in the queue. What was your cash flow from operations in the quarter?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Kevin, the total cash flow I think you can see by the change in the net debt positions. I haven't broken it out from cash flow from operations as compared to cash flow from other sources.

  • Analyst

  • Just the change in net debt under a million in equity, about 40 million free cash paid down. Is that -

  • Unknown Speaker

  • That is right, Kevin.

  • Analyst

  • Thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • Your next question is from Doug Driscoll, Salomon Smith Barney. You may begin.

  • Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, David. Want to ask a few questions. On the PPA plant at Astaris, obviously this situation has not worked out as you would have liked. Where are we currently in terms of operating rate? Has it - are you satisfied with what they have done since you guys prereleased earnings a few weeks ago?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • David, Bill. The PPA plant is operating well north of 50% on its way to full production. I am satisfied and confident that we have got in place a plan to bring that to full operations. We have thrown a lot of resources against it, including a lot of FMC resources in the course of the last 60 days and have made material progress.

  • Analyst

  • Is it reasonable to assume that the plant should be operating at one hundred percent by the end of the third quarter?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • It is probably a reasonable assumption. I wouldn't want to bank on it.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Switching over to the soda ash business. The - if I understand it correctly, the American Soda operation that troublesome operation that came about a few years ago, is currently on the selling block right now. I am just curious if you have any information for us about whether or not this facility is likely to be sold or likely to be shut down? What effect would this have on your outlook for your Wyoming Soda ash business?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • The American soda property is for sale. It is being auctioned. We had expected by this point that the seller, Williams, would have down listed the bidders to a few. We don't believe that has happened. We are somewhat blind to the process, as we are not participating in it. It is speculative on my part to offer an opinion on whether it is going to be shut down or sold and operated. Clearly the industry does not need the capacity represented by American Soda and clearly American Soda is the high-cost producer of soda ash in North America. If there was a facility that was a candidate for shut down, that would be the one.

  • Analyst

  • Switching to the Ag side, can you give us more definition on what you think the potential is for the legal expansions on your products going into the third and fourth quarter? Just in terms of size on revenues? I know we talked about it, but I am a little bit vague on what I should be expecting for the magnitude of what the potential is.

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • David, Kim is rummaging through papers and we can't find the numbers you are looking for. We will get back to you.

  • Analyst

  • Can I ask a quick question about land sales. Is there news on the front in terms of California regulations? Are we closer on that cash generating event?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • There has been progress made David, since we last talked, but not enough progress that would lead us to believe it is any closer to closing than we thought it was 60 days ago.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Very good. Thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • Your next question is from Dimitri Silverscreen of Midwest Research. Caller, you may begin your question.

  • Analyst

  • Can you clarify for me. I thought I heard you say third quarter and fourth quarter margins in ag is going to be impacted by manufacturing related to first quarter shut down of a plant?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Yeah. The comment was there are a number of positive things going on in Ag in Q3, visibly the second quarter of (inaudible). It is a drag will be the unabsorbed manufacturing variances that result from our having mothballed the herbicide plant.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. You also mentioned that soda switching was impact in volume for the soda ash business. The prices in that market have moved up significantly in the past four to five weeks. Do you expect the switching to (inaudible) reverse itself in the second half of the year?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Clearly we would hope that is the case. Current both spot and contract prices for costic (phonetic) are not high enough to incentive a customer to switch back to soda ash. That conversion price is somewhere around 120 to 150 dollars of costic (phonetic) and last I looked, it was below 100.

  • Analyst

  • Okay.

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Having said that, the other side of the coin, we don't see new conversions taking place. The negative impact of low costic (phonetic) prices at least in the last 30 days seems to have stabilized.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. The Ag business pushed into the second half as far as sales, we can expect that to be in the third quarter rather than the fourth, I imagine?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Yes, expecting a stronger fourth quarter.

  • Analyst

  • Couple of bookkeeping questions. Can you go through working capital payables and inventory ?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • We don't have the balance sheet breakout detail as of yet. I am sorry we can't. This is Kim.

  • Analyst

  • I will get back in the Queue.

  • Operator

  • Your next question is from Andrew O'connor of Straum Capital. You may begin your question.

  • Analyst

  • Bill, can you give us a little more color or a little bit more regarding the tone of the market for your Industrial Chemicals? How do you see demand trending for your alcoly(phonetic) and peroxygen for the next few quarters?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Would be happy to. Soda ash and hydrogen peroxide, the two key products in the segment. We continue to see I will call it both - on strong versus our expectations six months ago, domestic and export demand for soda ash. The domestic demand is primarily as a result of continuing operating problems at American Soda, as opposed to increase in use demand. The increase in export market is largely success Ensec (phonetic) has had in china. In the peroxide business, we have seen stabilization and improvement in pulp demand. Non-pulp markets had been strong throughout the quarter. Going forward from here, we would expect to see improving at least quarter to quarter volume comparison in peroxide.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. But the pulp market is still soft, is that correct?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Soft, but it has stabilized and there is early evidence of improving demand.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. That is helpful. In the ag area, can you quantify your comment third quarter sales are - in the second half of the year, we are looking for most of the uptake to take place in the third quarter. If second quarter sales in ag were 174 million, what are we looking for in the third quarter? Can you guesstimate?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • I don't have a sales forecast in front of me. I can only talk about earnings expectation. I cannot repeat what I said, we expect a stronger second half than the first and most of that strength will occur in the third quarter.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Fair enough.

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • I would extrapolate to say the sales improvement will come largely in the third, as well.

  • Analyst

  • Got you. Lastly, in regard to the land sale in California, you are still expecting this to take place in fiscal year '03?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • We don't have in '02 projections.

  • Analyst

  • Got you.

  • Operator

  • Your next question is from (inaudible) of CFFB. Caller, I may begin your question.

  • Analyst

  • Could you harbor on pricing in Industrial Chemicals? Also, what is the comparitive situation in China with respect to soda ash?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Let me talk first to pricing. There is no Neus on the soda ash - really no Neus on soda ash or the peroxide front from last quarter. We got a domestic price increase through that was partially offset by market pressures in costic (phonetic) soda. On year to year basis, domestic price increase. There is no change that I am aware of in the export pricing. Your question on China was on what, volume or price or -

  • Analyst

  • More volume. How much market share, you know, how are you guys doing in terms of market share?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Well, I don't be know the market share Ensec (phonetic) is looking to triple the volume they will put into china this year versus last year. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of tons of incremental volume. Not for us, but the industry.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Your next question is from Bob Gotsman of First Manhattan Company. Caller, you may begin your question.

  • Analyst

  • Good morning. I have a few questions. First, on the refinancing, can you refresh my memory as to how much you are refinancing and the second part of that is what might be the impact in terms of additional interest expense on an annual basis?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Bob, Walter. We have not publicly announced the size of the refinancing, but have a 240 million revolver that needs to be refinanced. We have $100 million in term debt coming due in 02 that needs to be addressed and have another long-term maturity due in the fourth quarter of '03, which I think would be reasonable for you to assume we will address, as well. Not clear at the moment what the full impact of that refinancing will be on earnings. We did say, however, the impact in this calendar year from the downgrade was going to be 3 to 4 cents a share.

  • Analyst

  • Uh-huh. I see. The significant impact might be next year on an annualized basis?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Yes.

  • Analyst

  • And no more clarity in terms of understanding the market today and how the interest rates might change for you?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Until we finalize the discussions with the banks and the leads we have picked, it is premature to talk about the impact.

  • Analyst

  • Uh-huh. I see. I also wanted to ask you about the timing of any strategic decisions in your looking at the three segments of your business? Can you update us on that decision? And - the timing of such a sale?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • I would be happy to, Bob, but will not be able to go as far as you and others would like me to. We made the decisions and reviewed it with the board. We have board support of a plan for the corporation going forward. We have begun actions to implement that plan. Exactly when there will be public evidence of those actions and when they will come to conclusion is again speculative at this point. I am simply not going to go there.

  • Analyst

  • I see. I see. I also wanted to ask a little bit more about your specialty chemicals business. If you can provide more granularity in terms of the BioPolymer business versus the Lithium business and clarify what was in the press release as a mixed issue on the BioPolymer side and food and pharmaceuticals that suggests to me perhaps that the earnings were down perhaps for that segment or less robust than the segment overall earnings?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Would be happy to, again, Bob. In the quarter, we saw strong volume growth in all three major product lines at BioPolymer. (inaudible) and Algenides(phonetic). The comment of that mix, as you probably would suspect, we sell a variety of products to a variety of different customers in both segments. In the course of any one quarter, you can see both favorable and unfavorable shifts in the mix and in Q2 of '02 it was unfavorable. I would not conclude the rate of profit growth in BioPolymer was any less than the rate of profit growth for the entire segment.

  • Analyst

  • Uh-huh. Would you look at the rest of year in terms of the mix question and whether or not that might change or will the mix also perhaps be unfavorable for you?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • I haven't got down to that level of review, Bob. What we have said about the balance of the year for the segment, we expect earnings to be flat year to year with stronger volumes - I guess you would have to conclude there is unfavorable mixed shift going on within the segment that keeps earnings flat year to year.

  • Analyst

  • Uh-huh. I see. I can follow-up with you on that more specifically. I wanted to just ask one last question. This is a follow-up to a First Boston report which recommended that you account for your earnings in Astaris in a different way. I don't think I have to go into detail, but could you comment on your willingness to look at that suggestion?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Sure. We listened to the recommendation carefully and thought long and hard about what we ought to do and decided for the moment, not to change our accounting practice with respect to Astaris earnings. We did that, Bob, simply for competitive reasons. We did not want to disclose and that is what we would have done. We did not want to disclose Astaris earnings through the equity earnings and affiliate account. We may be forced there and will therefore, go there when Solutia their Astaris affiliate is naked on their PNM.

  • Analyst

  • Uh-huh. I see. I see. Okay. Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • You have a follow-up question from Kevin McCarty of Banc of America Securities. Caller, you may begin your question.

  • Analyst

  • Yes, on Lithium, you have counter trends here with continued weakness on the commodity side, but maybe an improvement on Specialties. Talk a little bit about those trends and also how you view the business as a whole now that you have completed your portfolio?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Kevin, Bill. I will take the second half first. We continue to believe lithium is an attractive business. It is a technology-based business, serving attractive markets with attractive organic growth rates. We have got a dominant position in the specialty end of the lithium business worldwide with virtually only one other competitive. It is an attractive industry, attractive market and competitive environment. Having said that, we are still not through the transition that has been underway for several years from the business model that lithium was pursuing prior to sqm's entry into the lithium-carbonate business. The model we think is appropriate going forward. That transition we are in continues to have retarding effect on the profitability of the business. Having said that, the business is profitable. Having said that, both ends of the business are profitable. But, clearly the specialty end going into secondary battery and pharmaceutical synthesis is the more attractive piece of the business and the one we intend to continue to invest in and grow going forward.

  • Analyst

  • That is helpful. Next question relates to soda ash. I apologize in advance because it is detailed. In your latest queue, you referenced the 40 to 45 million dollar contingent payment on the PG acquisition you did back in '99. My question is what assumptions have you made regarding the performance of soda ash to come up with such a narrow range?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Kevin, you are right. That contingent payment is the final payment on the Texas Gulf acquisition. There is a formula to determine what that actual payment is. It is based upon the earnings of the combined Texas Gulf and FMC soda ash business over a three-year business '01, '02 and '03. Obviously, we have a great view on 01. We think we know where '02 will settle out. The assumption with respect to '03 is for no material improvement over the '02 level. That is what gets us to the relatively narrow range. Theoretically, the number accounted could be higher or lower. We would be tickled pink if it was higher. If it was higher it means the earnings in the soda ash business would be higher than we currently expect them to be.

  • Analyst

  • That is helpful. Finally, with the equity market swoon pension could - has become a hot topic. Do you have early thoughts on what potential head wound could be in '03?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • We have - this is a tough one. We have not sat down first of all, Kevin, and reviewed assumptions on expected return and comp increases that really determine both the book and the cash contribution that is we need to make to the pension fund. Having said that, our total cash outflows in '02 under the pension fund, we expect to be about 3 million - I am sorry, about 6 million, 3 million we made in Q1. Again, I would be speculating, Kevin, with you going forward. Whether we will change our assumptions and if we do, how quickly we will, the effect of that change through the PNL is simply not been set yet.

  • Analyst

  • Fair enough. Thanks very much.

  • Operator

  • Your next question is from Don Roberts of Buckingham Research. Caller, you may begin your question.

  • Analyst

  • Good morning. Can you hear me? Bill, it seems the hydrogen peroxide business for pulp has been lousy for a lot longer than anyone thought. International Paper told their investors they were going to squeeze raw materials even more going forward. Do we have to come up with a plan b at some point for that business, other than waiting for recovery? I know you have done restructuring, but we need to take that to another level and whether or not it is separatable from the better performing non-pulp side of the peroxide business?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • John, I don't think so. The recovery will be slower than historical pulp recoveries. I don't think we are forecasting anything more than 2-4% volume growth in the pulp side of the business over the next 5 years. The industry has mothballed a significant amount of capacity and the industry is operating at 90% plus utilization rates. No, I don't see there is a plan b necessary if the recovery never occurred, we would obviously have to revisit that. John, I missed the second half of the question.

  • Analyst

  • The second half if you had to go to plan b, whether or not the pulp side of the business was separatable from the non-pulp products which are doing better, but it doesn't sound like plan b is on the radar.

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • It is not at the moment.

  • Operator

  • Your next question is from Byron Smith of Psyches Investment at Pfizer. You may begin your question.

  • Analyst

  • Are there any type of noncash items rolling through the EBITDA, like pension gains?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Not that I am aware of. I am looking at Kim and he is shaking his head in a horizontal direction.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Are there any types of cash cost that are coming up that will show up on the cash flow statements that are rolling through the income statements, like environmental spending or the - I guess if you are short on the Astaris is short on the EBITDA, then I think there is cash payment that you need to sort of make it up with. I think this year it is about $25 million. (inaudible) uses of cash coming up for the rest of the year?

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Byron, there are significant noncash outflows that are not going to find their way to PNL, that have already found their way. Cash flow items won't find their way into pnl. We disclosed those previously. I will review them quickly. There are legacy environmental spending of about $25 to 30 million a year. There are - all of the Pocatello shutdown demolition and remediation costs are not - have already been accounted for on pnl, but are a draw on cash. Those - that spending, plus anticipated keep wells for the Astaris debt is about $75 million in this calendar year. Finally, we have and Kevin identified it earlier. We have potential 40 to 45 million dollar call on cash at the end of '03, related to the Texas Gulf acquisition. Those are the big pieces. Anything else Byron, is immaterial.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press * and then the number 1 on your telephone keypad at this time. At this time, there are no further questions. Mr. Norris, are there closing remarks?

  • Eric Norris - Director of Investor Relations

  • Yes, Bill Walters has closing remarks.

  • William Walter - Chairman, President, and CEO

  • Let me thank you for joining us in the conference call. Obviously at least to me, the second quarter had some disappointing dimensions to it. But, despite the disappointments, a lot of positive things occurred. We exceeded to revise expectations. Yeah, they were revised, but we exceeded them and we exceeded them in large part because of actions that we have taken. The issues that led to the lower second quarter expectations have been addressed and I am confident should have little impact on our results going forward. We do see some evidence of a pick-up in our economically sensitive markets, pulp being one of them. Cost reductions in industrial, ag and corporate are ahead of schedule and will have a material impact on this year's results, as well as the years going forward. We are comfortable with third quarter and full-year consensus estimates for us. As Kim said, refinancing plans are being finalized as we speak and we fully expect to complete the refinancing well in advance of the fourth quarter needs. With that, I will sign off. Thank you again and look forward to meeting with you individually and talking to all of you on the conference call at the end of Q3. Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • This concludes FMC's corporate 00:46:10 conference call. You may now disconnect.