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Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Hi, everybody and welcome to FLEX LNG's fourth-quarter, 2024 result presentation where we will also go through the numbers for the full year. My name is Oystein Kalleklev, I'm the CEO of Flex LNG management. And as usual, I'm joined by our CFO Knut Traaholt who will walk you through the numbers a bit later in the presentation. As usual, we will go through the financials. We will cover the market and after the presentation, we will do our Q&A session.
大家好,歡迎參加 FLEX LNG 2024 年第四季業績報告,我們也將介紹全年數據。我叫 Oystein Kalleklev,是 Flex LNG 管理公司的執行長。和往常一樣,我們的財務長 Knut Traaholt 將稍後在演示中向您介紹這些數字。和往常一樣,我們將審查財務狀況。我們將介紹市場狀況,並在演示結束後進行問答環節。
As usual, we have a gift for the best question this time. It's for investors who don't want to get cold feet. We have the Flex LNG warm feet. So while our cargo is called minus 162 °C or 260 minus Fahrenheit, our investors can have warm feet because we have a lot of backlog which can weather us through this difficult market in the energy market. The last couple of months
像往常一樣,這次我們為最佳問題準備了一份禮物。它適合那些不想臨陣退縮的投資者。我們有 Flex LNG 暖腳。因此,儘管我們的貨物溫度被稱為零下 162°C 或零下 260 華氏度,但我們的投資者可以放心,因為我們有大量積壓訂單,可以幫助我們度過能源市場的艱難時期。過去幾個月
Before we begin, I just want to highlight the disclaimer. We will be utilizing some non-GAAP measures like TCE and adjusted debt and adjusted net income. Those numbers are reconciled in our earnings report also available today. And of course, there are limits to how much detail we can cover in the presentation. So let's begin with the highlights revenues came in at $89.5 million in line with the guidance of close to $90 million. For those who have had the earning support, you will actually see our revenues was $90.9 million.
在我們開始之前,我只想強調免責聲明。我們將利用一些非公認會計準則指標,如 TCE、調整後債務和調整後淨收入。這些數字已在我們今天發布的收益報告中進行了核對。當然,我們在演示中所能涵蓋的細節是有限的。首先我們要說的是,公司營收達到 8,950 萬美元,與接近 9,000 萬美元的預期一致。對於那些獲得收入支持的人來說,你實際上會看到我們的收入是 9,090 萬美元。
This is due to EU ETS the emission trading system coming into force in 2024. And we had the income on EU ETS carbon emissions on $1.4 million in our charters. This is for the account of our charter. So we received $1.4 million from our charters in compensation for Eu es and then we also surrender those to the EU and we have a corresponding cost of $1.4 million in our voyage expenses.
這是因為歐盟排放交易體系 (EU ETS) 將於 2024 年生效。我們的章程中規定,歐盟排放交易體系 (EU ETS) 碳排放收入為 140 萬美元。這是我們的章程所規定的。因此,我們從租船合約中獲得了 140 萬美元的對歐盟的補償,然後我們也將這些補償金交給歐盟,我們的航行費用也相應增加了 140 萬美元。
So net freight income $89.5 million as mentioned in line with the guidance, net income was driven by a sharp increase in interest rate in the Q4 after the election of Donald Trump. So we had a derivative income of $20.1 million, [$5.1 million] of the derivatives was realized during the quarter as a positive carry resulting in adjusted net income of $30.8 million where we only include the realized gains and losses, not the unrealized gain and losses. That means our earnings per share came in at a healthy $0.84 or $0.57 on the adjusted basis.
因此,淨貨運收入 8,950 萬美元符合預期,淨收入受到唐納德·川普當選後第四季利率大幅上升的推動。因此,我們的衍生性商品收入為 2,010 萬美元,其中 510 萬美元在本季度實現為正利差,調整後的淨收入為 3,080 萬美元,其中我們只包括已實現損益,而不包括未實現損益。這意味著我們的每股收益達到了健康的 0.84 美元或調整後 0.57 美元。
Recent events, we were reporting back in November, we informed you about the extension of two of our ships. Flex resolute Flex courageous. They were at the beginning of 2024 these ships were extended from 2025 to 2027 where the charter has the option to extend those ships to 2029, in November, we announced that the charter has amended the charter where they have a new firm period for 2029 to 2032 with options all the way to 2039.
最近發生的事件,我們在 11 月報道過,我們向你們通報了我們兩艘船的延期情況。堅定果斷,勇敢堅強。2024 年初,這些船舶的租期從2025 年延長至2027 年,租船合約可以選擇將這些船舶延長至2029 年。的新固定期限。
So we are pretty sure these ships are at least gone for to 2032 possibly a bit longer following our Q3 presentation in November. We also announced end of November a new 15 year time charter for Flex constellation.
因此,根據我們 11 月的第三季報告,我們非常確定這些船舶至少會持續服役到 2032 年,甚至可能更久。我們也在11月底宣布了一項為期15年的Flex星座新定期租船合約。
So the start-up of this charter is in Q1 or Q2 2026. Given where the rates are today, it's more probable that start-up will be Q1 as this is in our option 15 year takes the shift to 2041. So we are adding a lot of backlog to this recent new charters at a very good time.
因此,該租船合約將於 2026 年第一季或第二季開始生效。考慮到目前的利率水平,啟動時間更有可能是在第一季度,因為根據我們的選擇,15 年後將轉移到 2041 年。因此,我們在非常好的時機為最近的新章程增加了許多積壓工作。
I would say given how the market has experienced the last couple of months, we also done some refinancing as we mentioned in our presentation in November, adding more attractive debt $430 million, releasing $97 million in cash while extending our debt maturities and lowering the interest costs.
我想說,考慮到過去幾個月市場的表現,我們也做了一些再融資,正如我們在11 月的報告中提到的那樣,增加了4.3 億美元的更具吸引力的債務,釋放了9700 萬美元的現金,同時延長了債務期限並降低了利息成本。
We also provide a guiding today for 2025. So despite the slump in freight rates, we are very well covered with our backlog. So we do expect that the revenues will come in line with the number for 2024. The time charter equivalent earnings, it's expected to be somewhere in the mid-70s giving revenues of $340 million to $360 million.
今天我們也為 2025 年提供了指導。因此,儘管運費下跌,但我們的積壓訂單仍然充足。因此,我們確實預期收入將與 2024 年的數字保持一致。預計定期租船等價收益將在 75% 左右,收入為 3.4 億至 3.6 億美元。
You should note that we have four ships where we are planning to do the special five year survey in 2025. While we only took two ships out of operations last year, we also expect this number to be fairly in line with last year $250 million to $270 million. So it's pretty good and steady sailing from Flex LNG.
您應該注意到,我們有四艘船,我們計劃在 2025 年進行特別五年期檢驗。雖然去年我們只停止營運了兩艘船,但我們預計這一數字將與去年的 2.5 億至 2.7 億美元持平。因此,Flex LNG 的航行非常順利且穩定。
So once again, we are declaring a dividend of $0.75 per share, taking the dividend for 2024 to $3 implying a running yield of about 12%. And this we can do given the fact that we have a fortress balance sheet and backlog $437 million of cash and I will touch upon minimum 62 years of backlog, which is about five years each ship.
因此,我們再次宣布每股股息為 0.75 美元,2024 年的股息將達到 3 美元,意味著當前收益率約為 12%。我們可以做到這一點,因為我們有穩固的資產負債表和 4.37 億美元現金積壓,我將談到至少 62 年的積壓,也就是每艘船約五年。
Just a kind of summary of the 2024 results TCE $74.9. So this is the time charter equivalent earnings. So it's like the average rate you have on obtain on your ship $74.9 we were guiding about $75,000 revenue $355 million. We're guiding $353 million to $355 million our narrow range and then not just the smack in the middle of the range, $271 million to $274 million we're delivering $273 million. And I think for the first time here, we do see Q4 numbers below Q3 given the slump in rates from end of September into Q4 and into 2025 for that matter.
這只是 2024 年結果 TCE $74.9 的一種總結。這就是期租等價收益。因此,這就像您在船上獲得的平均費率為 74.9 美元,我們指導的收入約為 75,000 美元,為 3.55 億美元。我們預計銷售額將在 3.53 億美元至 3.55 億美元之間,我們的預期範圍很窄,而不僅僅是預期範圍的中間值 2.71 億美元至 2.74 億美元,預計銷售額將達到 2.73 億美元。我認為,鑑於利率從 9 月底到第四季以及到 2025 年的下滑,我們首次看到第四季的數據低於第三季。
Just to touch upon our contract coverage, we have Flex constellation which was pitched on the front slide. She is on a 312 daysâ time charter. We expect to get her red delivered end of February early March. She will then have a 12 month where we will have to trade her in the spot market which will be a bit challenging and reflected in the guidance. But once she commenced to Q1 2026 she will commence a 15 year charter to 2041 where the charter also have the option to extend that ship to 2043.
簡單談一下我們的合約範圍,我們有 Flex 星座,它是放在前面投影片上的。她的租船期限為 312 天。我們預計她的紅色將於二月底三月初交付。然後,我們將不得不用 12 個月的時間在現貨市場上對她進行交易,這將有點挑戰性,並反映在指導中。但一旦她在 2026 年第一季開始服役,她將開始一份為期 15 年的租船合同,直至 2041 年,租船合約還可以選擇將該船的服役期延長至 2043 年。
We also have some ships with all the ships with long duration charters fix. Rainbow all the way to 2033. As I mentioned, the resolute and courageous. We extended in November all the way to 2032 where the charter can extend those ships to 2039. And then we have two ships with cheer, which we have, we extended back all the way back in November 2022 where those ships have been extended to 2032 and 2031. We have two ships coming up 2029.
我們還有一些船隻,所有船隻都有長期租船合約。彩虹一直到2033年。正如我所提到的,堅決而勇敢。我們在 11 月將租船合約延長至 2032 年,而租船合約可以將這些船舶的租期延長至 2039 年。然後我們有兩艘載有歡呼聲的船,我們已經將它們的服役期延長到了 2022 年 11 月,而這兩艘船的服役期又被延長到了 2032 年和 2031 年。我們有兩艘船將於 2029 年投入營運。
So leaving us with Flex freedom fixed until Q1 2027 which we think is a good window where the market will be much tighter than it is today. And then Flex volunteer also with air fixed until Q1 '26 where they have the option to take those ships to 2028 Flex ranger. Again, I think it's a good window of redelivery. The ship is with an air to 2027 and then we have one ship on index. She's getting close to her film period. She was fixed from delivery of yard on a variable time charter for five years with [GBO] that is maturing in Q3 when we are planning to do the five year special survey for this ship.
因此,我們將 Flex 自由度固定在 2027 年第一季度,我們認為這是一個很好的窗口期,市場將比現在緊張得多。然後 Flex 志工也將與空中人員一起修復,直到 26 年第一季度,他們可以選擇將這些船隻帶到 2028 年 Flex 遊騎兵。再次,我認為這是重新交付的良好時機。這艘船的飛行時間是 2027 年,到那時我們的索引中就有一艘船。她已經快步步進入電影黃金時期了。我們與 [GBO] 簽訂了為期 5 年的可變期租船合同,從交付船廠起算,租期將於第三季度到期,屆時我們計劃對該船進行為期五年的特別檢驗。
And then we will see whether the charter utilize their options. They can extend the ship by five years. Those options are also an index which makes it probably a bit more possible that they utilize the extension options since they are not fixed rate higher. So altogether 62 years of minimum firm backlog, which then might go to 96 years if the charter utilize all the extension options.
然後我們將看看憲章是否利用了他們的選擇。他們可以將這艘船的使用壽命延長五年。這些選項也是一個指數,這使得它們利用擴展選項的可能性更大,因為它們的利率不是固定的。因此,總共需要 62 年的最低公司積壓期限,如果憲章利用所有延期選項,則可能會增加到 96 年。
Guiding for 2025, I already touched upon it. It's going to be Deja Vu all over again. We expect numbers to be very much in line with the numbers we delivered in 2024 and with stable business, stable outlook. We are also having stable dividends paying now $0.75 again, $41 million in total dividend. So the last quarters we paid this ordinary dividend of $0.75 per share. We also topped up from time to time with some special dividends. And altogether this number is now $610 million of dividends the last 3.5 years, which I think gives our investors a stable and good income being invested in flex.
指導2025年,我已經提到了這一點。這將是一次似曾相識的經驗。我們預計數字將與 2024 年的數字非常一致,且業務穩定,前景穩定。我們也有穩定的股息,現在再次支付 0.75 美元,總股息為 4,100 萬美元。因此上個季度我們支付了每股 0.75 美元的普通股息。我們還不時補充一些特別股息。總的來說,過去 3.5 年的股息為 6.1 億美元,我認為這為我們的投資者在 Flex 投資中帶來了穩定且良好的收入。
So before giving over to Knut, just a reminder of all kind of decision factors for putting the appropriate dividend level, we had $0.57 of adjusted earnings per share. We are paying slightly higher dividend. Given the fact we have as Knut will tell you more about we are flushed with cash. So we think that we can pay out slightly higher than the earnings per share.
因此,在將發言權交給 Knut 之前,我們先來提醒一下確定適當股息水準的所有決策因素,我們的調整後每股收益為 0.57 美元。我們支付的股息略高一些。鑑於事實,正如克努特所言,我們擁有充裕的現金。因此我們認為我們可以支付略高於每股收益的金額。
The decision factors, mostly green lights except for the market outlook where short term outlook is poor, medium term is slightly below average, I would say. And then when we are looking at the market from 2027 onwards, where we get most of our ships open. It's still compelling with long term charter rates in the mid-80s, which is above the level we are delivering today.
決策因素,除了市場前景外,大多是綠燈,因為短期前景不佳,中期前景略低於平均水平,我想說。當我們展望2027年以後的市場時,我們的大多數船舶都會投入營運。80 年代中期的長期租船費率仍然具有吸引力,高於我們目前提供的水平。
So it means that we should be able then to reach out to those ships at better rates in the future. So with that, I think I hand it over to Knut before, just remind you about one number you will not find in this report. And it's actually the most impressive number. It's a lost time injury frequency.
所以這意味著我們將來能夠以更優惠的價格租到這些船。因此,我想我之前把它交給了克努特,只是提醒你一個你不會在這份報告中找到的數字。這實際上是最令人印象深刻的數字。這是損失工時傷害頻率。
So this is our main safety KPI where zero is the theoretical minimum, given the fact that you have had no incidents and the number we delivered in 2024 was zero. So no lost injuries, lost time injuries frequency for 2024 which I think is impressive and shows that we are delivering super service to our customers. So with that hand it over to you and I come back with the market update.
因此,這是我們的主要安全 KPI,其中零是理論最低值,因為事實上您沒有發生過事故,而且我們在 2024 年交付的數量為零。因此,2024 年沒有損失工傷,也沒有損失工時傷害頻率,我認為這令人印象深刻,顯示我們正在為客戶提供優質的服務。因此,將其交給您,然後我會回來提供市場更新。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Thank you. So let's start off since it's Q4 with a bit of a review of the full year. And in particular here, the operational days, as you may recall in 2023 we had the four drydocking s and this year we have had two 33 days of drydocking, which is actually seven days below our budgets and not of the fire days for drydocking, we are delivering 99.7% technical uptime, which is a very strong performance.
謝謝。因為現在是第四季度,所以我們首先對全年進行一些回顧。特別是這裡的營運天數,您可能還記得,2023 年我們有四次乾船塢,今年我們有兩次33 天的乾船塢,這實際上比我們的預算少了七天,而且不是乾船塢的消防天數,我們的技術正常運作時間達到 99.7%,這是一個非常強勁的表現。
On the TCE as you see here, stable TCE, $75,300 for the fourth quarter and close to $75,000 for the full year. This shows also the stable revenue streams that we have.
正如您在此處看到的,TCE 是穩定的,第四季度的 TCE 為 75,300 美元,全年接近 75,000 美元。這也顯示我們擁有穩定的收入來源。
On OpEx, we are for the year and also for Q4 delivering slightly below our budgets and guiding which is a strong testament to our cost discipline for 2025. We are seeing that a number of our ships are coming close to their schedule and maintenance on running hours, in particular for the auxiliary engine and main engines. So in combination with higher crew cost and that is crew cost for crew changes. In particular crew changes in Asia, we are now guiding an OpEx per day of $15,500 for the year.
在營運支出方面,我們今年和第四季的交付量略低於預算和指引,這有力地證明了我們對 2025 年成本的紀律。我們發現許多船舶的運行時間和維護都接近計劃,特別是輔助發動機和主發動機。因此,加上更高的船員成本,這就是船員更換的船員成本。特別是在亞洲的船員換班方面,我們目前指導的全年每天的營運成本為 15,500 美元。
If we look at the revenues, as I mentioned, we have revenues of $90.9 million of which $1.4 million is related to EU ETS. And as a reminder, we are subject to EU ETS when our ships are in Europe and having port calls to Europe. This is a cost for the for the ship owner. But under our time charter agreements, we can reimburse and get that reclaimed from our charters, revenues received there from the charters will be booked as operating revenues while we correspondingly will book the same amount as voyage expenses.
如果我們看一下收入,正如我所提到的,我們的收入為 9,090 萬美元,其中 140 萬美元與歐盟 ETS 有關。提醒一下,當我們的船舶位於歐洲並停靠歐洲港口時,我們就要遵守歐盟排放交易體系。對船東來說這是一筆成本。但根據我們的定期租船協議,我們可以償還並從租船中收回這筆費用,從租船中獲得的收入將記為營業收入,而我們相應地將相同金額記為航行費用。
We are delivering smack on guidance and one of our important numbers is the adjusted net income where we adjust for non-cash items. And for the fourth quarter, we are adjusting $15 million for unrealized gains on the interest derivative portfolio and $0.5 million loss of ethics portion we have.
我們正在嚴格履行指引,其中一個重要數字是調整後淨收入,其中調整了非現金項目。對於第四季度,我們將調整 1,500 萬美元的利息衍生性投資組合未實現收益和 50 萬美元的道德損失部分。
And as we presented also on the Q4 presentation, we concluded some refinancing in Q3 that refinanced three ship leaving the Flex Endeavor unencumbered. So therefore, you will also see a lower debt balance and also cash balance on the Q3 numbers. The long term lease for Flex Endeavor was concluded on October 3, and then releasing the full amount of $160 million.
正如我們在第四季度報告中所述,我們在第三季度完成了一些再融資,為三艘船進行了再融資,而 Flex Endeavor 號則沒有任何負擔。因此,您還將看到第三季的債務餘額和現金餘額有所下降。Flex Endeavor 的長期租約於 10 月 3 日簽訂,並全額支付 1.6 億美元。
So during the quarter, we had $52 million cash flow from operations, then the scheduled debt amortizations and then close to $41 million we paid out in dividends that leaves us with a very strong cash balance of $437 million.
因此,在本季度,我們的經營活動現金流為 5,200 萬美元,然後是預定的債務攤銷,然後我們支付了近 4,100 萬美元的股息,這使我們的現金餘額達到 4.37 億美元,非常強勁。
This is a reminder that how we keep our balance sheet, it's fairly clean, it's ships and cash and then we have debt on the other side and the book equity. And as we show here, our book values are more or less reflecting all time low values, but we still maintain a fairly decent book equity ratio of 30% given our backlog and most importantly, our debt funding portfolio, a very attractive mix of both bank debt and leases where we also include RCFS to manage our cash position. During the quarter, we converted a term loan a bullet term loan for one of our, one of our banks to an RCF and thereby increasing our RCF capacity to about $414 million.
這提醒我們,我們如何保持我們的資產負債表,它相當乾淨,它是船舶和現金,然後我們在另一邊有債務和帳面權益。正如我們在這裡所展示的,我們的帳面價值或多或少反映了歷史最低值,但考慮到我們的積壓訂單,我們仍然保持了30% 的相當不錯的帳面權益比率,最重要的是,我們的債務融資組合,兩者的組合非常有吸引力銀行債務和租賃,其中我們還包括 RCFS 來管理我們的現金狀況。在本季度,我們將一家銀行的定期貸款轉換為 RCF,從而將我們的 RCF 容量增加到約 4.14 億美元。
And that we use in between quarters for cash management and reduce interest rate cost and net of the RCF. We see here our net debt balance and what on our interest rate exposure, the $530 million in the dark blue is basically our net debt exposed to the floating rate market remaining. Here is the fixed rate debt and hedge debt which I will cover in the next slide.
我們在季度之間使用它來管理現金,降低利率成本和 RCF 淨額。我們在這裡看到我們的淨債務餘額和我們的利率敞口,深藍色部分的 5.3 億美元基本上是我們在浮動利率市場剩餘的淨債務敞口。這是固定利率債務和對沖債務,我將在下一張投影片中介紹。
Also on the debt maturity profile, our first debt majority is in December 2028 that's related to flex resolute and given that she was -- we announced a contract extension for her on the Q3 presentation that is a very manageable residual to refinance.
此外,在債務到期情況方面,我們的第一筆多數債務是在2028 年12 月,這與flex resolute 有關,並考慮到她- 我們在第三季度的演示中宣布了與她的合約延期,這是一個非常容易管理的剩餘再融資。
We see a gun fishing sticker, you see three hooks. We did announce three contracts or contracts for three ships on last quarter. Even though we have a very attractive debt funding portfolio, we will consider refinancing of these three ships in particular given the long duration of those contracts.
我們看到一張槍釣魚貼紙,你看到三個鉤子。我們上個季度確實宣布了三份合約或三艘船的合約。儘管我們擁有非常有吸引力的債務融資組合,但考慮到這些合約的期限較長,我們將考慮對這三艘船進行再融資。
We have been managing our interest rate risk very actively. Last quarter, we did some amendments and added more duration to secure coverage during these high interest rate environments. So we have extended duration, which is also yielded very well, which is shown in the both realized and unrealized gains during the fourth quarter.
我們一直非常積極地管理我們的利率風險。上個季度,我們做了一些修改,並增加了期限以確保在高利率環境下的保障。因此,我們的期限延長了,而且收益也很好,這在第四季度的已實現收益和未實現收益中都有所體現。
This is a mix of traditional interest rate swaps and also fixed rate leases and fixed rate portions of our leases which is primarily in our Japanese operating leases.
這是傳統利率互換和固定利率租賃以及我們租賃的固定利率部分的混合,主要在我們的日本經營租賃中。
So in conclusion, and also this, we get a lot of questions about dividend sustainability. This slide can be read in conjunction with the decision factors for our dividend. We have stable cash flow. We have a very healthy balance sheet with $437 million in cash. We have barely non CapEx liabilities and first debt maturity in 2028. So that is what is there to support both our commercial and financial flexibility and dividend story.
總而言之,我們對股息可持續性有很多疑問。此投影片可與我們的股利決定因素一起閱讀。我們有穩定的現金流。我們的資產負債表非常健康,擁有4.37億美元現金。我們幾乎沒有非資本支出負債,首筆債務將於 2028 年到期。這正是支持我們的商業和財務靈活性以及股息故事的因素。
So with that, I hand it back to you Oystein.
因此,我將把它交還給你,Oystein。
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Okay, thank you. Let's dig into the market a bit. Yes, 2024 was a year with record low growth in export volumes. We put in a recent history. We on our capital platform we couldn't find any year with less growth in 2024, but I can't rule out that this could have happened sometimes in the 70s. 80s. So I just put in recent history.
好的,謝謝。讓我們深入挖掘一下市場。是的,2024年是出口量成長創歷史新低的一年。我們講述了近期的歷史。在我們的資本平台上,我們找不到 2024 年成長速度低於這一水平的任何一年,但我不能排除這種情況在 70 年代有時會發生。80年代。因此我只是講述近期的歷史。
Actually, growth in the market was lower than 2020 when you had this wave of US cargo cancellation in 2020. The export market actually grew 1%. It's only 0.2% this year. It's a combination of factors. There's been some delays on liquefaction plants, and then, of course, there's been the sanction on the expansion of Russian capacities, particularly the Arctic LNG2, which I will come back to later.
實際上,與 2020 年美國出現貨運取消潮時相比,市場成長速度較低。出口市場實際上成長了1%。今年僅0.2%。這是多種因素共同作用的結果。液化工廠的建設出現了一些延誤,當然,俄羅斯的產能擴張也受到了製裁,特別是北極液化天然氣2號計畫的建設,我稍後會談到這個。
But despite the sanctions on [Russian] LNG plants, Russia managed to exports 4% last year and Europe was one of the big takers of Russian LNG. US only 1% growth in 2024. Nigeria has resolved some other issues with feed gas problems and managed to show healthy growth both in Q4 '24 and for the full year.
儘管俄羅斯液化天然氣工廠受到製裁,但俄羅斯去年仍實現了 4% 的出口,歐洲是俄羅斯液化天然氣的主要買家之一。2024年美國僅成長1%。尼日利亞已經解決了原料氣問題的一些其他問題,並在2024年第四季和全年都實現了健康成長。
On the import side, it's been a year where Europe has stepped back. Europe has had the benefit of two very mild winters in a row prior to this winter, resulting in Europe coming out of the winter season last year with very high inventory levels, and they stepped back from the market giving more room for Asian countries, particularly China, which grew healthy last year, getting close to the record levels they had prior to the invasion of Ukraine.
從進口方面來看,歐洲今年已經倒退。今年冬季之前,歐洲已經連續兩個冬季氣候非常溫和,導致歐洲去年冬季結束時庫存水平非常高,因此他們退出了市場,為亞洲國家提供了更多空間,尤其是中國去年經濟增長穩健,接近入侵烏克蘭之前的最高水準。
So I believe they ended up at 788.5 million or 79 million, the record high is 80 million tons and then India actually 14%. This has changed a bit in the past with the cold winter and the big inventory draws in Europe. Europe has been making a comeback in the market as we've shown on this graph.
因此我認為最終產量會達到 7.885 億或 7,900 萬噸,歷史最高產量為 8,000 萬噸,而印度的產量實際上增加了 14%。過去,由於寒冷的冬季和歐洲的大量庫存,這種情況有所改變。正如我們在這張圖表中所顯示的,歐洲市場正在復甦。
Before the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Europe imported around 80 million tons, and then during this energy crisis of 2022, they really were the buyer of first and last resort, increasing their imports all the way to 127 million tons, primarily sourcing a lot of spot US LNG at that time. Imports stayed stable in 2023, but then given the two mild winter, they came out of last winter season with high inventory, so imports in '24 slumped to 103 million tons, but this is changing now with a colder winter, less renewable output, especially in Germany, we see that the inventories in Europe are well below the last couple of years, and we do expect Europe to come out of the winter with low inventories with a big need for restocking during the summer months, and this is also reflected in the price of LNG.
在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前,歐洲進口了約 8,000 萬噸,然後在 2022 年的這場能源危機期間,他們實際上是第一個也是最後一個買家,進口量一路增加到 1.27 億噸,主要採購大量當時美國液化天然氣現貨價格。2023 年進口量保持穩定,但考慮到過去兩個冬季的溫和氣候,去年冬季的庫存量很高,因此2024 年進口量暴跌至1.03 億噸,但這種情況現在正在改變,冬季更冷,可再生能源產量減少,特別是在德國,我們看到歐洲的庫存遠低於過去幾年,我們確實預計歐洲在冬季庫存較低的情況下會走出低谷,夏季補貨需求較大,這也反映出液化天然氣價格。
So we have this graph showing the three main indices for natural gas prices. It's the Henry hub in the US, which is the main benchmark price for natural gas, hovering around $3 to $4, one of the cheapest gas sources you can have.
我們有這張顯示天然氣價格三個主要指數的圖表。它是美國的亨利樞紐,是天然氣的主要基準價格,徘徊在3到4美元左右,是您能擁有的最便宜的天然氣來源之一。
Then JKM, meaning Japan Korea market, so this is more like the spot LNG price in Asia, although most of the Asian players, the big nations like Japan, China, Korea, they have a lot of LNG they buy on long term contracts linked to oil prices. So this is the spot price.
然後是 JKM,即日本韓國市場,所以這更像是亞洲的現貨液化天然氣價格,儘管大多數亞洲參與者,例如日本、中國、韓國等大國,他們透過長期合約購買了大量液化天然氣油價。這就是現貨價格。
And then you have the more like deregulated European market where the main benchmark for Northwest Europe is TTF, Title Transfer Facility. Which is a virtual pricing hub in the Netherlands. So generally what we have seen now is that prices have been picking up and picking up to a level where LNG becomes expensive for $15 million per million BTU, meaning oil prices above $80 resulting in more of the Asian nations, turning to more affordable energy like coal.
然後你會看到更像是放鬆管制的歐洲市場,其中西北歐的主要基準是 TTF,即產權轉移工具。這是荷蘭的一個虛擬定價中心。因此,我們現在看到的總體情況是,液化天然氣的價格一直在上漲,每百萬英熱單位的價格達到1500 萬美元,這意味著油價超過80 美元,導致更多亞洲國家轉向更便宜的能源,例如煤炭。
So we see here that the pool from Europe is pushing up prices where a kind of killing of the arbitrage, meaning it's more profitable to send the US cargos to Europe rather than Asia despite actually shipping being more or less for free. So this change in trading pattern in the latter part of '24, and into '25 have resulted in a big slump in the freight market, which I will also cover later.
因此,我們看到,來自歐洲的聯運正在推高價格,這是一種套利行為的扼殺,這意味著將美國貨物運往歐洲比運往亞洲更有利可圖,儘管實際上運輸或多或少是免費的。因此,24 年下半年和 25 年貿易模式的變化導致貨運市場大幅下滑,我稍後也會談到這一點。
Looking at Asia, had a good start of the year, pulling a lot of cargos up at record high levels and then we see a bit lower growth from Asia at the end of the year as Europe came for full force into the markets. Stable market in the mature markets being, JKT meaning Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Taiwan did grow their imports quite a lot, but Japan and Korea are fairly stable. China, as I mentioned, growing fairly steady, and the same goes with South Central Asia.
縱觀亞洲,今年開局良好,大量貨物運輸量達到歷史最高水平,但隨著歐洲全力進入市場,我們看到年末亞洲的貨運量增長略有放緩。成熟市場中穩定的市場是JKT(即日本、韓國、台灣)。台灣的進口確實增加了不少,但日本和韓國的進口則相當穩定。正如我剛才提到的,中國的成長相當穩定,南中亞的情況也是如此。
Then going, turning back to Russia and the sanctions, there are a couple of big LNG export plants in Russia. Two of them are not sanctioned. This is cyclin primarily exporting to Japan, Korea, China and then Yamal, which generally can export cargos to Asia via the Northern Sea route with specialized LNG tankers, but when the ice is thick, they like to export those cargos into Europe, and Europe has been a willing buyer.
然後回到俄羅斯和製裁問題,俄羅斯有幾家大型液化天然氣出口工廠。其中兩人未受制裁。該公司主要向日本、韓國、中國和亞馬爾出口貨物,這些國家通常可以透過專門的液化天然氣運輸船透過北海航線向亞洲出口貨物,但當冰層厚的時候,他們喜歡將這些貨物出口到歐洲,而歐洲一直是願意購買的買家。
As you can see on the graph on the left hand side there, Europe record high import of Russian LNG last year. Some of the newer projects, as I mentioned, been sanctioned, particularly the Arctic LNG2. It's a big plant. The first train is up and running, but they have not been successful in placing those cargos in the market and the second train is also ready for commissioning. So we'll see how this develops, whether there will be a grand bargain with the EU, Trump, Russia, Ukraine, and whether this part of the deal will be a lifting of the sanctions on Russian gas and LNG.
正如您在左側的圖表中看到的,歐洲去年進口的俄羅斯液化天然氣量創下了歷史新高。正如我所提到的,一些較新的項目已獲得批准,特別是北極液化天然氣2號計畫。這是一種很大的植物。第一列火車已經啟動並運行,但他們尚未成功將這些貨物投放到市場上,第二列火車也已準備好投入使用。因此,我們將觀察事態如何發展,歐盟、川普、俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間是否會達成一項大協議,以及這部分協議是否會解除對俄羅斯天然氣和液化天然氣的製裁。
Then some of these cargos might come back into the market. At least there seems to be some signals from part of the that they are willing to make certain concessions in order to leave this war behind us. Then looking at the export market, there is a lot of volume coming to the market, a lot of volume which were already sanctioned or given the green light prior to Biden putting in the moratorium on new export licenses in January 2024.
那麼其中一些貨物可能會重新進入市場。至少部分國家似乎發出了訊號,表示他們願意做出某些讓步,以便結束這場戰爭。然後看看出口市場,有大量的交易進入市場,其中許多交易在拜登於 2024 年 1 月暫停發放新的出口許可證之前就已經獲得批准或獲得綠燈。
And, of course, as we expected and mentioned when we had our Q3 presentation in November, we did expect that President Trump would remove these limitations very quickly, which he did. So there is a lot of new projects in the US ready to be FID.
當然,正如我們在 11 月第三季報告中預期和提到的那樣,我們確實預計川普總統會很快取消這些限制,而事實也確實如此。美國有許多新項目準備進行最終投資決定。
We see on this on the right hand side here we have picked out some of the key contenders to get FID either this year or next year, being Lake Charles, Delphin LNG, Sabine Pass expansion, Woodside, Louisiana, CP2, and possibly as well as Alaska LNG. However, there's a lot of trade disputes going on.
我們在右側看到,我們挑選了一些今年或明年可能獲得 FID 的關鍵競爭者,包括查爾斯湖、德爾芬液化天然氣、薩賓帕斯擴建、伍德賽德、路易斯安那、CP2,還有可能如阿拉斯加液化天然氣。然而,貿易爭端依然頻繁。
We saw overnight China coming in and putting a tariff on US LNG, similar to what they did back in 2018, 19. When we had a period of time with 13 months without China sourcing any LNG from the US. So the Chinese have made contracts with a lot of these US expansion projects, and in case these tariffs stays in place, we would expect them to resale those cargoes, possibly to European buyers and rather source more LNG from Qatar, Australia, Russia, West Africa.
我們看到中國一夜之間對美國液化天然氣徵收關稅,類似他們在 2018 年、19 年所做的。有 13 個月的時間,中國沒有從美國購買任何液化天然氣。因此,中國已經與美國許多擴建項目簽訂了合同,如果這些關稅保持不變,我們預計他們會轉售這些貨物,可能是賣給歐洲買家,而是從卡塔爾、澳大利亞、俄羅斯、西方國家採購更多的液化天然氣。
So this is still up in the air a bit. These trade wars are volatile. Suddenly there are tariffs and then there are 30 days grace. So we just have to monitor the development. But in any case, there is a lot of LNGs coming to the market and unless there is a really big trade war here, we do expect a lot of new US projects to come into the piper also given the fact that Europe also is expected to have some trade conflict with the US, where President Trump is really forcing Europe to be buying more LNG from a US.
因此這仍然有點懸而未決。這些貿易戰充滿危險。突然間就有了關稅,然後又有 30 天的寬限期。因此我們只需監測事態發展。但無論如何,有大量液化天然氣進入市場,除非發生一場真正的大規模貿易戰,否則我們確實預計大量美國新項目將進入市場,因為歐洲也有望與美國發生一些貿易衝突,川普總統實際上迫使歐洲從美國購買更多的液化天然氣。
Touching upon the freight market, which is the market which we are active in. As I mentioned, the market was behaving quite normal during 2024, actually a bit firmer during the summer months than we expected, and but once we came into the winter season rather than the market or the freight rates shooting up, which is usually the case they slumped and they have continued to slump throughout 2025, where they are now at the rock bottom level at around $10,000 per day, which makes it very uneconomically, especially for the older tonnage.
談到貨運市場,這是我們活躍的市場。正如我所提到的那樣,2024 年市場表現相當正常,實際上在夏季幾個月裡比我們預期的要堅挺一些,但一旦進入冬季,市場或運費就不會像通常的情況那樣飆升價格持續下跌,並在2025 年持續下跌,目前已處於最低水平,每天約10,000 美元,這非常不經濟,特別是對於較舊的噸位而言。
What are the drivers (inaudible), of course, the change in trading pattern where most cargoes are going to Europe, cutting down the sailing distance and this is freeing up a lot of ships as you can see here on the left hand side of the graph. A lot of ships, in around 35 ships available in the market. This is softening than the freight rates.
驅動因素有哪些(聽不清楚),當然是貿易模式的改變,大多數貨物都運往歐洲,縮短了航行距離,從而釋放了很多船隻,正如你在圖表左側看到的圖形。船隻很多,市場上大約有 35 艘船可供選擇。這比運費價格有所走軟。
We also saw during last year a big grow in spot fixtures as kind of the cargo prices have gone down, the panic has been leviated, more of the charters are tapping into the spot market given the vessels availability, fixing their ships on spot voyages rather than fixing them on longer term contracts. So in that regard, I think we have done well. We have been utilizing that window during 2021, '22, 2023 and also into 24 fixing a lot of ships on longer term contracts rather than just playing spots.
我們也看到,去年現貨租船量大幅成長,因為貨運價格下降,恐慌情緒消退,考慮到船舶供應充足,更多的租船公司開始進入現貨市場,將船舶安排在現貨航次上,而不是而不是透過長期合約來解決這個問題。所以從這個方面來說,我認為我們做得很好。我們在 2021 年、2022 年、2023 年以及 2024 年期間一直利用這個機會,用長期合約固定很多船隻,而不僅僅是玩點。
Looking at the most inefficient ships, the steam tonnage, generally we could say there are three types of ships. It's the older steamships. There are still around 200 of these ships in the market, and then there are the high fuel or dual fuel diesel electric ships, and then we have the modern ships, the two (inaudible), which has, of course, better economics given that they are larger and has a much more efficient propulsion system.
看看效率最低的船舶,蒸汽噸位,一般來說我們可以說有三種類型的船舶。這是較古老的蒸氣船。市場上仍有大約 200 艘這樣的船舶,然後是高燃料或雙燃料柴油電動船舶,然後我們還有現代化船舶,這兩艘(聽不清楚),當然,考慮到它們體型更大,並擁有更高效率的推進系統。
Rates for steam tonnage. We pegged the tail on the Affinity and Clarkston numbers at $2500 per day. If we look at the number today, the number for the rate for steam tonnage is actually zero. So we have been talking about this for a long time. It's an overdue scrapping cycle for steam tonnage. These ships have been surviving because we have had generally quite good markets, especially in '22 and '23, and into, at least the first quarter of '24.
蒸汽噸位費率。我們估算 Affinity 和 Clarkston 的尾部數字均為每天 2500 美元。如果我們今天看一下數字,蒸汽噸位率的數字實際上是零。所以我們已經談論這個問題很久了。對於蒸汽噸位而言,這是一個遲來的報廢週期。這些船舶之所以能夠存活下來,是因為我們整體上擁有相當好的市場,尤其是在2022年和2023年,以及至少在2024年第一季。
So given the slump in the market and making these ships unattractive, we do expect to see a big uptick in scrapping this year, next year, and the coming years, driven not only by economics, but also by environmental rules which disadvantage on these ships except for the fuel EU maritime which I'm going to cover also lately.
因此,鑑於市場低迷,這些船舶缺乏吸引力,我們預計今年、明年和未來幾年拆船量將大幅上升,這不僅是受經濟因素驅動,也是受不利於這些船舶的環境規則影響除了我最近要介紹的歐盟海運燃料之外。
In terms of new building prices, they have stabilized at around $255 million per ship. Delivery went down generally being 2028, elevated new building prices and also fairly high interest rates in recent history is also then driving up long term charter rates in order to invest in new ships. You need a rate, at least in the mid-80,000 to get a reasonable return on such an investment.
新船建造價格方面,穩定在每艘約2.55億美元。交貨時間通常縮短至2028年,新船建造價格上漲,近期相當高的利率也推高了長期租船價格,以投資新船。您需要一個至少在 80,000 左右的利率才能獲得此類投資的合理回報。
So longer term rates are holding up for those contracting ships for delivery 2028 and onwards. Looking at the order book, it's a big wall of new buildings hitting the market and it is one of the reasons why we try to fix our ships until '27, '28, where we think the market looks at a balanced.
因此,對於簽訂2028年及以後交付船舶的合約而言,長期費率將保持不變。從訂單量來看,大量新船湧入市場,這也是我們嘗試修復船舶直至27、28年的原因之一,我們認為到那時市場將趨於平衡。
For '24, we were expecting 68 ships for delivery given the soft market. There has been some slippage, which usually happens in a soft market. So only 60 ships for delivery last year, meaning there will be more ships for delivery in '25, 93 we expect, and then 83 ships for delivery '26 and '27.
鑑於市場疲軟,我們預計24年將有68艘船舶交付。出現了一些下滑,這通常發生在疲軟的市場中。所以去年只有 60 艘船舶交付,這意味著'25 年將有更多的船舶交付,我們預計為 93 艘,而 26 年和 27 年將有 83 艘船舶交付。
As you should note there, most of the ships, or almost all of them are built towards long-term charters, given the elevated new building prices and given the size of the order book, there is hardly any speculative ordering left. There are a few ships which are uncommitted for delivery in '25, '26, '27, And then from '28 onwards, all those ships are either for long term projects and also the Qatar, which has expanded their fleet by more than 120 ships in order to renew their fleet and also to have more ships for the big expansion going on in Qatar.
您應該注意到,大多數船舶(或幾乎所有船舶)都是為長期租賃而建造的,考慮到新船價格的高漲以及訂單規模,幾乎沒有任何投機性訂單。有幾艘船尚未交付,將於 25、26、27 年交付。船隊,同時也為卡達的大規模擴張提供更多的船隻。
So if you look at the market here, we have been in our face with limited growth now the last two years and then The growth will pick up in '25, continue to grow in '26, '27 onwards, which will rebalance the market together with scrapping of older ships. So when it comes to older ships, we put out the different types of ships here. as I mentioned, less efficient ships being the steam turbine ships.
所以如果你看看這裡的市場,過去兩年我們一直面臨著有限的成長,然後在2025年成長將會回升,在2026年、2027年繼續成長,這將使市場重新平衡以及舊船的報廢。因此,當涉及較舊的船隻時,我們會在這裡推出不同類型的船隻。正如我所提到的,效率較低的船是蒸汽渦輪船。
And that's why they have a big penalty on the EU emission trading system, cost per day for a steamship EUR7,200 per day. This tax is paid in the EUR. [EUR $1] is more or less the same today, so you don't really need to have an FX conversion to calculate the dollar amount.
這就是為什麼他們對歐盟排放交易體系處以高額罰款,一艘輪船每天的罰款金額高達 7,200 歐元。該稅以歐元繳納。 [1 歐元] 今天的價值大致相同,因此您實際上不需要進行外匯轉換來計算美元金額。
The older generation, the tri fuel or the dual fuel diesel electric, EUR5600 a day, and then the more modern ships, the [MGI] and the XTF, which our fleet consists entirely of. We have nine mega ships and four XTF ships they have a smaller kind of EU ETS drag, EUR4600 per day.
老一代的三燃料或雙燃料柴電驅動船,每天 5600 歐元,然後是更現代化的船隻,[MGI] 和 XTF,我們的船隊全部由這兩艘船組成。我們有九艘巨型船和四艘 XTF 船,它們的歐盟 ETS 拖曳力較小,為每天 4600 歐元。
However, EU, they don't like to make things simple. So while I think most ship owners to support this system, we generally like a predictable carbon tax, which is penalizing the less efficient ships. EU has also implemented this year what they call the fuel EU maritime, which is a system for decarbonising maritime fuel. Since LNG is a cleaner burning fuel, you will get a kind of reward for burning LNG compared to very low sulphur oil or heavy fuel oil with a scrubber.
然而,歐盟不喜歡把事情簡單化。因此,雖然我認為大多數船東都支持這個制度,但我們普遍喜歡可預測的碳稅,這對效率較低的船舶是一種懲罰。歐盟今年也實施了所謂的「歐盟海運燃料」計劃,這是一種船用燃料脫碳的系統。由於液化天然氣是一種更清潔的燃料,與燃燒低硫油或帶有洗滌器的重質燃料油相比,燃燒液化天然氣將獲得一種回報。
There is a huge penalty if you are not complying with the fuel EU maritime regulation. The penalty being EUR2400 per metric ton of (inaudible) equivalent. It's a complicated world. So we've taken the numbers from the ship affinity and calculated what will that benefit be. So we can see on our ships we will get the benefit from pretty big benefit from the fuel EU maritime, more so on the (inaudible), which we have nine of because, they have hardly any methane slip.
如果您不遵守歐盟燃料海事法規,將會受到巨額罰款。罰款為每公噸(聽不清楚)當量 2,400 歐元。這是一個複雜的世界。因此,我們根據船舶親和力獲取了一些數字,並計算出了其帶來的好處。因此,我們可以看到,我們的船舶將從歐盟海運燃料中獲得相當大的利益,更重要的是(聽不清楚),我們有九艘,因為它們幾乎沒有任何甲烷逃逸。
Slightly less benefit on the XTF because they have a higher methane slips than the mega ships and then a further penalizing of the dual fuel diesel electric or tri fuel diesel electric due to the high methane slip. However, the steamship, which doesn't have any methane slip, they do, however, have a huge fuel consumption. That is why they are being penalized by the EU ETS, but they also get a huge benefit from the fuel EU maritime.
XTF 的優勢略小,因為它們的甲烷逃逸量比大型船舶高,而雙燃料柴電或三燃料柴電由於甲烷逃逸量高而受到進一步損害。然而,雖然輪船沒有甲烷排放,但是燃料消耗卻很大。這就是為什麼他們受到歐盟排放交易體系的懲罰,但他們也從歐盟海運燃料中獲得了巨大的利益。
I don't really think that they can. It's unconceivable that they will be able to sell these kind of rewards to others, but they can enter into certain pooling arrangements where they can reduce the penalty or kind of swapping costs for all the parts of the fleet.
我確實不認為他們可以。他們不可能將這種獎勵出售給其他人,但他們可以達成某些集中安排,從而減少整個船隊的罰款或交換成本。
For example, if you have all the container ships, bulkers or tankers. So in general we think this system is unnecessary and given how it's structured today is actually favoring the steamships because they are burning a lot of LNG, which is a clean fuel. So we just put up a good old quote from [Ronald Reagan] and modified it to 2025. The nine most terrifying words in the English language in 2025 is not the government, but I am from the EU and I am here to help.
例如,如果您擁有所有的貨櫃船、散裝貨船或油輪。因此總的來說,我們認為這個系統是不必要的,而且考慮到目前的結構,它實際上有利於輪船,因為它們燃燒大量的液化天然氣,而液化天然氣是一種清潔燃料。因此,我們只是引用了羅納德·雷根的一句名言,並將其修改為 2025 年。2025 年英語中最可怕的九個字不是政府,而是我來自歐盟,我來這裡是為了幫忙。
So more about the EU, they like to make a lot of rules. Some of these rules are also driving business costs. Mostly is now the CSDR. We have also gone through the Corporate sustainability Reporting Directive. We are listed in two places in Oslo and in New York, and then we have to comply with both sets of rules, both the US rules and the European Union rules. This is driving up costs for us. It's not like we want to avoid.
更多關於歐盟的事情,他們喜歡制定很多規則。其中一些規則也增加了商業成本。現在主要是 CSDR。我們也已經了解了企業永續發展報告指令。我們在奧斯陸和紐約兩個地方上市,因此我們必須遵守兩套規則,即美國規則和歐盟規則。這增加了我們的成本。這並不是我們想要避免的。
Reporting on sustainability, we actually have provided our ESG report every year since 2018, where we give full disclosures on a lot of numbers, according to the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board. On top of that, we have added the global reporting initiative and, based on feedback from investors, we also added the carbon disclosure projects and our ranking will come out on Thursday.
關於永續發展報告,實際上,自 2018 年以來,我們每年都提供 ESG 報告,根據永續發展會計準則委員會的規定,我們在報告中全面揭露了大量數字。除此之外,我們還增加了全球報告倡議,並根據投資者的回饋,增加了碳排放揭露項目,我們的排名將於週四公佈。
Last year we had a B ranking on the Carbon disclosure project reporting. [NOESG] report for 2024 will also be available probably around April. However, having to deal with two sorts of regulation, which is quite costly in terms of consultants, auditors, and such. And given the fact that 95% of our trading today is on the New York Stock Exchange and the fact that the New York Stock Exchange is planning to widen the opening hours or trading hours to 22 hours a day.
去年,我們在碳排放揭露計畫報告上獲得了 B 級評級。 [NOESG] 2024 年報告也將於約四月發布。然而,必須處理兩種監管,顧問、審計師等方面的成本相當高。鑑於我們今天 95% 的交易是在紐約證券交易所進行的,而且紐約證券交易所正計劃將開放時間或交易時間延長至每天 22 小時。
We have decided to propose to the Board for the approval of the annual general meeting in May to delist in Oslo and rather save that money so we can rather spend that on focusing on one set of reporting requirements instead of having to deal with two conflicting sets of reporting requirements.
我們已決定向董事會提議,在5 月份的年度股東大會上批准在奧斯陸退市,並節省這筆資金,這樣我們就可以把這筆錢花在專注於一套報告要求上,而不是處理兩套相互衝突的報告要求。
So with that, I just think we are going to run through the summary before going for our Q&A session. As I mentioned, revenues in line with guiding, we are delivering very strong results $45 million or $31 million depending on whether it is the net income or just a net income giving [EPS] of $84 or $0.57.
因此,我認為我們應該在進行問答環節之前先瀏覽一下摘要。正如我所提到的,收入符合預期,我們實現了非常強勁的業績,達到 4500 萬美元或 3100 萬美元,具體取決於淨收入還是僅僅是淨收入,[EPS] 為 84 美元或 0.57 美元。
We have added a lot of new backlog during Q4, putting us in a very good position to deal with the slump in the freight market during 2025, as we are guiding very similar results for 2025 as we achieved in 2024. And with a big backlog, a big cash position, once again we are paying out $0.75 giving you guys $3 in dividend per share or a yield of 12%.
我們在第四季度增加了許多新的積壓訂單,這使我們能夠很好地應對 2025 年貨運市場的低迷,因為我們預計 2025 年的業績與 2024 年的業績非常相似。由於有大量積壓訂單和大量現金,我們再次支付 0.75 美元,為你們每股 3 美元的股息或 12% 的收益率。
So with that I think we head over to the Q&A session and (inaudible) probably have some questions ready already.
因此,我想我們可以進入問答環節,並且(聽不清楚)可能已經準備好了一些問題。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
So maybe we should start taking two steps back and looking at the natural gas market, and we use abbreviation for certain pricing hubs, JKM, TTF and also Henry Hub. There's a question here if we can explain more what these hubs are and the interlinks between them.
因此,也許我們應該退後兩步,看看天然氣市場,我們使用某些定價中心的縮寫,JKM、TTF 和 Henry Hub。這裡有一個問題,我們是否可以進一步解釋這些樞紐是什麼以及它們之間的相互連結。
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Yeah, I think I did it in the slide with the gas prices with Henry Hub being the main index in the US, JKM being the spot price for LNG in Asia, meaning Japan, Korea, and then TTF being the virtual gas hub in the Netherlands, which is a big importer and a kind of a central hub in the pipeline network in Northwest Europe.
是的,我想我在幻燈片中已經提到過,Henry Hub 是美國的主要天然氣價格指數,JKM 是亞洲(即日本、韓國)的液化天然氣現貨價格,TTF 是亞洲的虛擬天然氣樞紐。西北歐天然氣進口大國和管道網路的中心樞紐。
Of course there are a lot of other gas hubs. Last year 2024, the average price on the [Baha] gas hub in the US, which is in West Texas, the average price was zero. So actually they were producing more gas than they could export, so they have to give it away with the price of zero. So this kind of in the UK, for example, you have the national balancing point, but these three indexes, Henry Hub, TTF, JKM are the most relevant.
當然還有很多其他的天然氣樞紐。去年到2024年,美國西德州的[巴哈]天然氣樞紐的平均價格為零。因此實際上他們生產的天然氣比他們所能出口的還多,所以他們不得不以零價格免費贈送。以英國為例,你有國家平衡點,但這三個指數,亨利中心、TTF、JKM 是最相關的。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Do you see pricing on TTF and JKM, when do you see cargo moving the other way around?
您是否看到 TTF 和 JKM 的定價,何時看到貨物反向流動?
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Yeah, we had a good question earlier today about that. What is the sweet spot for these kind of prices? In general, if you are doing shipping, you would like to have sailing distances as long as possible, because that is driving up demand for shipping. So I think in a sweet spot scenario we would have around where it is today, $3 or so.
是的,我們今天早些時候就此提出了一個很好的問題。此類價格的最佳價位是多少?一般來說,如果你從事航運業務,你會希望航行距離盡可能長,因為這會推動航運需求的成長。因此我認為,一個最佳的情況是,價格大約與現在持平,即 3 美元左右。
Generally there is a liquefaction tool, so we need to have a certain margin to move that cargo to Europe. So if Henry Hub is $3 we would probably like to have $7 or $8 in Europe and then maybe $8 to $9 in Asia, because then you would incentivize people to send the cargos to Asia rather than sending them all the cargos to Europe.
一般都有液化工具,所以我們需要有一定的空間來將貨物運送到歐洲。因此,如果亨利港的價格為3 美元,我們可能希望歐洲的價格為7 美元或8 美元,然後亞洲的價格可能為8 到9 美元,因為這樣你就可以激勵人們將貨物運往亞洲,而不是將所有貨物都運往歐洲。
And at the same time you would like to have gas prices coming down $15 is at a level where people would rather like to burn coal. If we are to replace coal with natural gas, we need to get prices lower. If you have $10 a barrel of oil is 5.8 million BTU, meaning that $10 gas price means $58 per barrel of oil.
同時,你希望天然氣價格降到 15 美元,達到人們寧願燃燒煤炭的水平。如果我們要用天然氣取代煤炭,我們需要降低價格。如果每桶石油價格為 10 美元,則其熱量為 580 萬英熱單位,也就是說,汽油價格為 10 美元,就意味著每桶石油價格為 58 美元。
So then it is also cheap comparable to oil. So that is the level where we want to have it, where it is not destroying demand but actually stimulating demand and stimulating substitution away from coal.
所以它也跟石油一樣便宜。所以這就是我們想要達到的水平,它不會破壞需求,而是實際上刺激需求並刺激煤炭替代品。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Yeah. And we touched upon in the presentations with the new President, Mr. Trump in office, day one scrapping the moratorium. Do you see any movement in new FIDs, or when do you expect to see this effort is being taken and new products --
是的。我們在與新總統川普的演講中提到,川普上任第一天就廢除了這項禁令。您是否看到新的 FID 有任何動向,或者您預計何時會看到這種努力實施以及新產品的推出--
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
There are lots of projects now, so the people who have these projects, they have not been idling now for 13 months since the Biden moratorium. So while this moratorium has been in place, I think everybody understood that this moratorium would be removed.
現在有很多項目,所以擁有這些項目的人,自拜登的禁令以來,已經 13 個月沒有閒著了。因此,雖然這項禁令已經實施,但我想每個人都明白,這項禁令將會被取消。
Whether or not Trump won. So even with Kamala Harris, we would expect the moratorium to be lifted, although probably it would take a bit more time. With Trump, it was removed immediately. So while this process has been ongoing, those projects have been signing up new SPAs, or sale and purchase agreements for LNG, what we call the off-tech agreements.
無論川普是否獲勝。因此,即使有卡馬拉·哈里斯,我們也希望禁令能夠被解除,儘管這可能需要一些時間。而對川普來說,這項規定立刻被取消了。因此,在這一過程進行的同時,這些項目一直在簽署新的 SPA,即液化天然氣買賣協議,即我們所說的非技術協議。
So typically, if you have a big LNG export, it is quite capital intensive, you would probably like to have contracts for 80%, 90% of that volume in order to make that investment. So a lot of these projects now have a very high level of contracted LNG. Which means that a lot of the projects are also ready to push the button this year on the green light for expansion, and then typically it takes three or four years for first cargo to be produced.
因此,通常情況下,如果您有大量液化天然氣出口,這需要相當多的資本,您可能希望簽訂 80% 到 90% 數量的合同,以便進行這項投資。因此,許多這類專案現在的液化天然氣合約量都已經非常高了。這意味著許多項目今年也準備按下擴張的綠燈,然後通常需要三到四年的時間才能生產第一批貨物。
[Placamino], which is owned by Venture Global, which recently did the IPO in the US market, they managed to do the first cargo after 30 months after the FID. On the previous project Calcasieu Pass, it was also something similar. I believe it was 28 months.
[Placamino] 由 Venture Global 擁有,該公司最近在美國市場進行了 IPO,他們在 FID 之後的 30 個月內成功運送了第一批貨物。在之前的卡爾克蘇山口計畫上,也發生了類似的事情。我認為是28個月。
So although it's not like 30 months and you get full production, then you need to ramp it up over a period of time. So in general, I think you know three to four years is a good so if they do the FID this year, you could see those volumes coming from ['28, '29].
因此,儘管不可能在 30 個月內實現全面生產,但您仍需要在一段時間內逐步提高產量。所以總的來說,我認為三到四年是一個不錯的時間,所以如果他們今年進行 FID,你可以看到這些交易量來自['28, '29]。
As we have also shown in the graph where we expect the growth to come from those projects, so first, we will have growth from the pipeline of projects already under construction, being mostly Qatar and the US, and then there is a new wave of FIDs. However, it is not very constructive with the trade rhetoric from Trump, which tend to scare away buyers because if suddenly there are tariffs that might make it uneconomic to take those LNG cargoes to those import nations who have acquired them.
正如我們在圖表中顯示的那樣,我們預計增長將來自這些項目,因此首先,我們將從已經在建的項目中獲得增長,主要是卡達和美國,然後是新一波財務獨立資訊。然而,川普的貿易言論並不是很有建設性,往往會嚇跑買家,因為如果突然徵收關稅,將這些液化天然氣貨物運往購買它們的進口國可能會變得不經濟。
So we would like to see a toning down of the trade rhetoric. That would be very helpful for the LNG market for sure.
因此,我們希望看到貿易言論的緩和。這對於液化天然氣市場肯定會非常有幫助。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Yeah, that leads into the next question because they pushed forward one week and Trump introduces tariffs and there's a lot of questions and geopolitical risk, but in particular on tariffs against China and how do you see that play out?
是的,這引出了下一個問題,因為他們將協議提前了一周,而川普卻引入了關稅,這帶來了很多問題和地緣政治風險,特別是針對中國的關稅,您如何看待這一結果?
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Yeah, this time they -- no big surprise. The Chinese have been preparing for this, so they have their playbook ready. So once he put on that new tariff, they had a ready playbook for what to do and not surprisingly like they did last time, they are slapping on a tariff 15% on LNG.
是的,這次他們——沒有什麼大的驚喜。中國人一直在為此做準備,所以他們已經準備好了劇本。因此,一旦他實施新的關稅,他們就已經準備好了應對的方案,而且毫不奇怪,就像上次所做的那樣,他們對液化天然氣徵收 15% 的關稅。
Last time this happened in ['18, '19], they started with 10% tariffs, increasing it to 25%, and you had this 13 months window where they didn't import a single LNG cargo from the US. And then finally they had like a trade Phase 1 where China again started to import a lot of LNG and actually committed to import a lot more LNG from the US together with soybeans and oil.
上次發生這種情況是在 ['18, '19] 年,當時他們開始徵收 10% 的關稅,後來提高到 25%,而這 13 個月的時間裡他們沒有從美國進口一船液化天然氣。最後,他們進入了第一階段的貿易,中國再次開始進口大量液化天然氣,並承諾從美國進口更多的液化天然氣以及大豆和石油。
So I am not surprised that they are coming with this retaliation. As I understand, Trump will talk to Xi Jinping this week, but I think it is not going to be sorted out very quickly. China has a huge trade surplus, Donald Trump is a very mercantilist in terms of trade.
因此,對於他們的報復我一點也不感到驚訝。據我了解,川普本週將與習近平舉行會談,但我認為這個問題不會很快解決。中國有著巨大的貿易順差,唐納德·川普在貿易方面是一個非常重商主義的人。
He thinks that the trade deficit with every country should be more or less zero, which does not really make sense from an economic perspective. So we would expect this to last for some time, whether there will be a grand bargain, maybe a trade agreement Phase 2.
他認為與每個國家的貿易逆差應該大致為零,但從經濟角度來看這沒有任何意義。因此,我們預期這種情況將持續一段時間,無論是否會達成一項大協議,或許是第二階段的貿易協議。
Let us see, I think for Trump his favorite President is Reagan and he made certain similar agreements with the Japanese in the 80s and I think that is the plan and we'll see how that develops. I think in general anyway, the cargoes they will be produced and it's just where they will end up.
讓我們看看,我認為對於川普來說,他最喜歡的總統是雷根,他在 80 年代與日本人達成了一些類似的協議,我認為這就是計劃,我們將看看其如何發展。我認為,總體而言,貨物都會被生產出來,而且最終都會到達目的地。
So in case China import less LNG from the US and Japan and South Korea, Thailand other countries will import more Europe, and then China will just have to substitute the US LNG with other LNG, and very soon they will also have the alternative of sourcing LNG from Canada from the LNG project.
因此,如果中國從美國、日本和韓國進口的液化天然氣減少,泰國、其他國家就會從歐洲進口更多液化天然氣,那麼中國就必須用其他液化天然氣取代美國液化天然氣,很快他們也會有其他替代來源來自加拿大液化天然氣計畫的液化天然氣。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
And that moves us over to the fleet and the fleet balance. There are sort of two questions there, starting off with opportunities. There are uncommitted ships in the new building fleet and there are also existing modern ships in the fleet. Do you see that opens up opportunities in this market for attractive acquisitions or M&A opportunities?
這將使我們轉向艦隊和艦隊平衡。這裡有兩個問題,首先是機會。新建船隊中既有尚未投入使用的船舶,也有現有的現代化船舶。您是否認為這為該市場帶來了有吸引力的收購或併購機會?
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Yeah. There are just a handful of uncommitted ships. There are very few, and we certainly know who the owners are of those ships. In general, I have been saying this for years, so I don't want to repeat myself too much, but we have a very good company.
是的。尚未投入服役的船隻寥寥無幾。這些船很少,我們當然知道這些船的主人是誰。總的來說,我已經說這個很多年了,所以我不想重複太多,但我們的公司非常好。
We have very happy customers who are repeating customers comes back and extend the ships with us for longer periods. As I mentioned, we deliver very good operations. You saw the technical fire 99.7% up time. As I mentioned, the lost time injury frequency, or key health and safety measure was zero, which is the theoretical minimum in 2024.
我們有非常滿意的回頭客,他們也會與我們延長船期。正如我所提到的,我們的營運表現非常出色。您看到技術火災的發生率為 99.7%。正如我所提到的,工傷損失頻率或關鍵的健康和安全指標為零,這是 2024 年的理論最低值。
So we have a good operation, we have a good set up, we have good access to financing being both equity capital markets and debt markets, so we could easily scale this company more. We are always open if somebody who has modern ships. We would like to consolidate and be part of a bigger company, then we are open to grow our company and we can do that easily without adding much cost. So we are open to consolidation.
因此,我們的營運良好,設置良好,我們可以透過股權資本市場和債務市場獲得良好的融資管道,因此我們可以輕鬆地擴大這家公司的規模。如果有人擁有現代化的船舶,我們總是願意提供協助。我們希望合併並成為一家更大公司的一部分,這樣我們就可以發展我們的公司,而且我們可以輕鬆地做到這一點而無需增加太多成本。因此我們對於合併持開放態度。
Buying ships is very easy. You just pay the highest price, the higher than anybody else, then you will be able to grow your fleet. What we try to be is disciplined, so we are paying the right price and a price that makes sense for the Flex LNG shareholders.
購買船隻非常容易。你只要支付最高的價格,比其他任何人都高,然後你就能擴大你的車隊。我們盡力做到嚴守紀律,以便支付正確的價格以及對 Flex LNG 股東來說合理的價格。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
And then on fleet balancing, the questions that you, we've talked about the steam tankers and scrapping, and the question here relates more to you see conversion projects to import terminals either for the steam tankers or the Tri-fuels. I think that helps the fleet balance in the short term.
然後關於船隊平衡,我們已經討論了有關蒸汽油輪和報廢的問題,這裡的問題更多地與您看到的蒸汽油輪或三燃料的進口碼頭改裝項目有關。我認為這有助於短期內實現船隊的平衡。
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
It's not enough. It's like 200 steamships, so you can't have 200 FSUs, so. I think really a lot of these older ships, typically they were put on a 20 to 25 year charter when they were built, and we have shown in the past we have had certain graphs about this on the roll of steam tonnage on existing legacy contracts.
這還不夠。這就像 200 艘輪船,所以你不能擁有 200 艘 FSU。我認為很多老舊船舶在建造時通常都會簽訂 20 至 25 年的租船合同,我們過去曾展示過有關現有遺留合同中蒸汽噸位變化的某些圖表。
So there's a lot of steam ships coming open and they will find a very hard time in the spot market. Nobody wants to fix those ships, as I mentioned, (inaudible) is quoting rate for steamships today at zero. So we do think that scrapping will certainly pick up. Steel prices are still pretty well at the level, so you get, $15 million or so for scrapping that ship, which has no future.
因此,許多輪船即將開航,它們在現貨市場上將會面臨非常艱難的時期。沒有人願意修理這些船,正如我所提到的,(聽不清楚)今天對輪船的報價為零。因此我們確實認為報廢量肯定會增加。鋼材價格目前仍維持在相當好的水平,因此,拆除這艘沒有前途的船可以得到 1500 萬美元左右。
So we think that some a lot of these ships will be scrapped. Some might be converted to FSU as floating storage ships, some may be FSUs, some may be power ships, which actually will drive demand for LNG as those need to be fueled by LNG.
因此我們認為許多這樣的船舶將會被報廢。有些可能會轉換為 FSU 作為浮式儲存船,有些可能是 FSU,有些可能是動力船,這實際上將推動對 LNG 的需求,因為它們需要由 LNG 提供燃料。
And actually the Tri-fuels are better candidates for FSU conversions, but we do expect some of the first generation of dual fuel, diesel electric will also find a difficult time in the market because they are sub scale, and as I mentioned on this environmental metrics, both the EU ETS and the fuel maritime score very poorly.
實際上,三燃料是FSU 轉換的更好候選者,但我們確實預計第一代雙燃料、柴油電力也會在市場上遇到困難,因為它們規模較小,正如我在這個環境問題上提到的指標來看,歐盟排放交易體系和海運燃料油的得分都很低。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
On the steam tankers, we talked about scrapping due to high cost for the 20 to 25 year special surveys, and they are earning zero today. So Claire Pennington asks, so the cash burner, what kind of OpEx levels are there for either cold storage or in operations? For how long will they survive.
關於蒸汽油輪,我們討論過報廢問題,因為20至25年的特別檢驗成本太高,而目前它們的收益為零。因此,克萊爾·彭寧頓 (Claire Pennington) 問道,那麼對於現金消耗者來說,冷藏或營運的營運支出水準是什麼樣的呢?他們還能生存多久?
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
The OpEx is quite similar, so a steamship, let's call it $15,000 a day in OpEx. Of course, you can put the ship in layup, then you can either do it a cold layup or a warm layup, warm layer being that you have a crew on board. So if you have a crew on board, basically you will have those running costs.
營運支出非常相似,因此,我們假設一艘輪船的營運支出為每天 15,000 美元。當然,你可以讓船處於停泊狀態,然後你可以進行冷停泊或熱停泊,熱層是指船上有船員。因此,如果船上有船員,基本上你就會有這些營運成本。
Then there is a cost of layup that really depends on where you are laying up the cost of the ship, if there are certain port costs or not this varies. You rather want to have cold weather so you do not get too much barnacles on the hull.
然後,停泊成本實際上取決於您停泊船舶的地點,以及是否存在特定港口費用,這兩者會有所不同。你寧願選擇寒冷的天氣,這樣船體上就不會累積太多藤壺。
But in general, these ships have lived all their life. They are not economically, so of course, you can put the ship in warm air for a short period of time, but given the numerous ships coming here, the wall of ships coming in '25, '26, '27, we don't really see that the market turning up very quickly, and that's why we built the backlog.
但整體來說,這些船已經存在了一輩子了。它們並不經濟,所以當然,你可以把船放在暖空氣中一小段時間,但考慮到來這裡的船隻數量眾多,25、26、27 年來這裡的船隻數量眾多,我們不會我確實看到市場迅速復甦,這就是我們建立積壓訂單的原因。
So I think that it's better probably to retire those ships. The time value of money is quite high today, even after the Fed has cut their interest rates, the interest rate is like 4.5%. So if you are delaying that kind of if you scrap the ship, you get a $15 million dollar payouts if you are instead waiting and incurring costs, and then if you are incurring those costs with the layup, they will also have other implications. You will lose your certificates, generally what we call the cider.
因此我認為最好還是退役這些船隻。如今貨幣的時間價值相當高,即使聯準會降息之後,利率也還在4.5%左右。因此,如果您推遲報廢該船,而您又在等待並承擔費用,那麼您將獲得 1500 萬美元的賠付,如果您在停工期間承擔了這些費用,那麼它們還會有其他影響。您將遺失您的證書,通常就是我們所說的蘋果酒。
Certificate, you might have extra cost for rebooting the ship, which will drive up the cost of reactivation. So in general, I think the steamships really are not layoff candidates, they are scrapping candidates today, which is going to be helpful in terms of bringing back the market balance to 2027.
證書,您可能需要為重新啟動船舶支付額外費用,這將推高重新啟動的成本。因此總的來說,我認為輪船確實不是被裁員的候選者,而是今天被淘汰的候選者,這對於在 2027 年恢復市場平衡是有幫助的。
I believe last quarter in November we had a graph showing how we and SSY expect the market balance to develop, where we see that the market going back to a better balance in 2027 and where they are assuming 53 steamships to be scrapped within that time frame. Last year it was eight ships, market was okay last year. Now market is not okay, so we don't think that this number of steam ships, 50 or so ships to be scrapped, seems actually a bit longer given the outlook.
我記得上個季度11 月我們有一張圖表,顯示了我們和SSY 預計市場平衡將如何發展,我們看到市場將在2027 年恢復到更好的平衡,他們預計在這段時間內將有53 艘輪船被報廢。去年是八艘船,去年市場還不錯。現在市場不太好,所以我們認為,從前景來看,這個數量的蒸汽船(約 50 艘被報廢的船隻)實際上似乎還需要更長的時間。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Then moving over to our fleet, and there are basically questions related to two of our ships, it is Flex Constellation and 15 year contract. I think we covered this last quarter as well, but it is a question is this related to or linked particularly, liquefaction projects or an SPA.
然後談到我們的船隊,主要有與我們的兩艘船有關的問題,即 Flex Constellation 和 15 年合約。我想我們上個季度也討論過這個問題,但問題是這是否與液化項目或 SPA 特別相關或有聯繫。
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Now it's really linked to our portfolio, so we haven't disclosed the charter. I think trade winds have done that for us, but what we have said is a huge Asian industrial LNG buyer or agglomerator. So they buy a lot of LNG is one of the biggest LNG buyers out there. They buy LNG from a lot of different projects and they need to renew their fleet of ships, finding the most efficient ships, and this ship will go into the portfolio where they source LNG worldwide from various projects.
現在它確實與我們的投資組合相關,所以我們沒有披露章程。我認為貿易風為我們帶來了這一點,但我們所說的是亞洲一個巨大的工業液化天然氣買家或聚集者。因此他們購買大量液化天然氣,是最大的液化天然氣買家之一。他們從許多不同的項目購買液化天然氣,他們需要更新他們的船隊,找到最高效的船隻,這些船隻將進入他們從世界各地各種項目購買液化天然氣的投資組合。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
And I'm following up on a 15 year contract in this period, are there a lot of other 10 year opportunities or similar tenders out there.
我正在跟進這段時間的 15 年合同,是否還有很多其他 10 年機會或類似的招標。
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Right now, it's a pretty slow market. It's really the cargo owners or the charters who can pick and choose what ships they want, given where the rates are today. Most people are doing, as I shown on the graph earlier today. Sport fixture has gone up a lot that typically happens when there are too many ships in the market.
目前,市場發展相當緩慢。事實上,貨主或租船人可以根據目前的運費等級來選擇他們想要的船隻。大多數人都是這樣做的,正如我今天早些時候在圖表上展示的那樣。體育賽事的費用已經大幅上漲,這通常是由於市場上的船隻過多而發生的。
Nobody really in any rush to fix ships on longer term contracts. They're harder just tap into the spot market whenever they have a need for a ship. I expect that to continue until the market tightens. And also then when people expect it to tighten. So typically what happens is that of course people are dynamic here.
沒有人真正急於簽訂長期合約來修復船舶。每當他們需要船舶時,他們就很難進入現貨市場。我預計這種情況將持續下去,直到市場收緊。然後人們也預期它會收緊。因此通常發生的情況是,這裡的人們當然是充滿活力的。
So once you see that the market is gradually tightening, somebody wants to be smarter than others and kind of jump on the wagon before it leaves and try to fix some ships on longer term charters before the rates picks up. So that is something that -- not sure that's going to happen this year, but probably when we are getting into '26 and '27.
因此,一旦你看到市場逐漸收緊,總有人想比其他人更聰明,在市場開始之前搶佔先機,並試圖在費率上升之前簽訂一些長期租船合約。所以,不確定今年是否會發生這種事,但很可能在我們進入 26 年和 27 年時發生。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Another ship is the Flex Artemis on a variable hire contract. I believe the question is more of a reminder how does this variable hire contract work.
另一艘船是 Flex Artemis 號,簽訂了不定期租約。我認為這個問題更多的是提醒大家這個可變租約是如何運作的。
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
It's a -- we fixed that on a variable hire contract. It was the first term deal we did. We did at the end of 2019 and we announced it was with Gunvor, which is one of the big LNG traders initial period, the period was five years for home delivery. That ship was delivered on August 17 from the SME, which is now called Hanwha 2020.
這是——我們在可變租賃合約中確定了這一點。這是我們達成的第一筆長期協議。我們在 2019 年底宣布了與 Gunvor 的合作,Gunvor 是大型液化天然氣貿易商之一,初始階段的送貨上門期限為五年。該船於8月17日由SME(現稱為“韓華2020”)交付。
So the ship goes on a variable charter where the rate is set for each voyage with a certain floor, so the rate cannot be lower than a certain floor and it cannot be higher than a certain ceiling. So in that range, we will get a rate. The rate will be pegged depending on the spot rates observed for modern tonnage, meaning MEGI XDF mega, the two stalk ships.
因此,船舶採用可變租船方式,其中每次航行的費率都是固定的,並且有一定的最低費率,因此費率不能低於某個最低費率,也不能高於某個最高費率。因此,在這個範圍內,我們將獲得一個利率。該費率將根據現代噸位現貨費率進行掛鉤,即 MEGI XDF mega,即兩艘追蹤船。
This firm period is coming to an end. And then in August 2025, the charters have five single year options. All of those options are also at a similar index, so meaning that if they declare the options, they will also benefit from having a rate linked to the spot market.
這段堅定的時期即將結束。到 2025 年 8 月,憲章將有五個單年選項。所有這些選擇權也都屬於類似的指數,這意味著,如果他們宣布選擇權,他們也將受益於與現貨市場掛鉤的利率。
So right today, of course they are paying a rate at the floor, maybe not too surprisingly. And once we are getting closer to August, we will know whether they will extend that ship. If not, we will do the five year special survey of that ship and have it ready for the winter market. It is a very attractive ship, together with resolute and the freedom, the most efficient ship we have with a so-called full re liquefaction plan, so they have two compressors where they can take the boil off.
所以今天他們當然是以最低價格支付,這也許並不太令人驚訝。一旦接近八月,我們就會知道他們是否會延長這艘船的航程。如果沒有,我們將對該船進行五年特別檢驗,為冬季市場做好準備。這是一艘非常有吸引力的船,兼具堅定性和自由度,是我們擁有的最高效的船,擁有所謂的完全再液化計劃,因此他們配備了兩個壓縮機,可以將沸騰的水排出。
Down to [00.35%] meaning that we can kind of form a ship which is a thermos minus 162 centigrades. You always have a heating up of that cargo and that heat creates gas vapor. We utilize that gas vapor to burn as fuel on the ship.
降至 [00.35%] 意味著我們可以形成一艘溫度為零下 162 攝氏度的熱水瓶船。貨物總是不斷加熱,而熱量會產生氣體蒸氣。我們利用該氣體蒸氣作為船上的燃料。
On these three ships we have a fuel re-system where you can basically liquefy almost all of the boil of gas, so in case you are waiting or you have to take it down speed, you can regulate that with these compressors. We also have four ships which are partial re-systems, so it is one of the best ships, so hopefully they will continue with the ship as a happy customer, but we will know once we get closer to the final maturity of that contract.
在這三艘船上,我們配備了燃料再系統,基本上可以將幾乎所有的沸騰氣體液化,因此如果您正在等待或必須降低速度,您可以使用這些壓縮機進行調節。我們還有四艘船是部分重新系統的,所以它是最好的船之一,所以希望他們能繼續作為滿意的客戶使用這艘船,但一旦我們接近合約的最終到期,我們就會知道。
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
I think that concludes the Q&A session, so it's time to announce.
我認為問答環節已經結束,現在是時候宣布了。
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Okay, do you have an idea?
好的,你有什麼想法嗎?
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
We have received a lot of good questions from Claire Pennington from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.
我們收到了獨立商品情報服務公司的克萊爾·彭寧頓提出的許多好問題。
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Also known as ICIS, but it is not --
也稱為 ICIS,但它不是--
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Knut Traaholt - Principal Financial Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Financial Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
It's a friendly one.
這是很友善的。
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Oystein Kalleklev - Principal Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer of Flex LNG Management AS and Principal Executive Officer of FLEX LNG Ltd.
Yes. Friendly ICIS, yes. So, thank you Claire, you have been asking me a lot of questions during the year, so you will have these swanky socks. As I mentioned, coal cargo, but you will keep your warm feet. I will send you two of these pairs, and that concludes today's presentation. It is my third quarterly presentation, so I am looking forward to presentation May 31.
是的。友善的 ICIS,是的。所以,謝謝你克萊爾,這一年你問了我很多問題,所以你會得到這雙時髦的襪子。正如我所提到的,煤炭貨物,但你會保持雙腳溫暖。我將向你們發送其中兩雙,今天的演講就到此結束。這是我的第三次季度演示,所以我期待 5 月 31 日的演示。
So thank you everybody for listening in and I hope to see you soon again.
感謝大家的收聽,希望很快能再見到你們。