Flagstar Bank NA (FLG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Flagstar Financial fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的支持。我的名字是 Regina，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Flagstar Financial 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Salvatore DiMartino, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 Salvatore DiMartino。請繼續。

Thank you, Regina, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the management team of Flagstar Financial for today's call. Our discussion today is the company's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results will be led by Chairman, President and CEO, Joseph Otting, along with the company's Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Lee Smith.

謝謝你，里賈娜，大家早安。感謝您加入 Flagstar Financial 管理團隊今天的電話會議。我們今天討論的是公司第四季和 2024 年全年業績，由董事長、總裁兼執行長 Joseph Otting 以及公司高級執行副總裁兼首席財務長 Lee Smith 共同主持。

Before the discussion begins, I would like to remind everyone that our quarterly earnings press release and investor presentation can be found on the Investor Relations section of our company website at ir.flagstar.com. Additionally, certain comments we make today -- certain comments made today by the management team of Flagstar Financial may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the safe harbor rules. Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and Safe Harbor language in today's press release and presentation for more information about risks and uncertainties which may affect us.

在討論開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們的季度收益新聞稿和投資者介紹可以在我們公司網站 ir.flagstar.com 的投資者關係部分找到。此外，我們今天發表的某些評論——Flagstar Financial 管理團隊今天發表的某些評論可能包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性聲明。我們所做的此類前瞻性聲明受安全港規則的約束。請查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中的前瞻性免責聲明和安全港語言，以獲取有關可能影響我們的風險和不確定因素的更多資​​訊。

When discussing our results, we will reference certain non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to today's earnings release for reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures.

在討論我們的結果時，我們將參考某些非 GAAP 指標，這些指標從報告的結果中排除某些項目。請參閱今天的收益報告以了解這些非公認會計準則指標的對帳情況。

And with that, now I would like to turn the call to Mr. Otting.

現在我想把電話轉給奧廷先生。

Thank you, Sal. And good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth-quarter earnings call.

謝謝你，薩爾。大家早安，歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。

Today is somewhat of a tragic in our nation at our hearts and minds this morning are with the accident victims and first responders at the Reagan National Airport. I think a lot of you know that for four years, that was my primary airport, and I know a lot of the people in that area. So it's really a tragedy for our nation. I'd like to thank all of you for your interest and support as we work to build a successful regional bank.

今天對我們國家來說是一個悲劇，今早我們的心與雷根國家機場的事故罹難者和急救人員同在。我想很多人都知道，四年來，那是我的主要機場，而且我認識那個地區的很多人。這對我們國家來說確實是一場悲劇。我想感謝大家對我們建立一家成功的地區銀行的關注和支持。

I would also like to welcome Lee Smith, who is joining me this morning for his first earnings call as the company's new Chief Financial Officer. Lee has been an important part of the company's leadership team and active in various aspects of the company's turnaround really throughout the past year and especially over the last six weeks as he has aimed to the CFO role in the company.

我還要歡迎李史密斯 (Lee Smith)，他今天上午將作為公司新任首席財務官參加他的第一次財報電話會議。李先生是該公司領導團隊的重要成員，在過去的一年裡，尤其是在過去的六週裡，他積極參與公司轉型的各個方面，並致力於擔任公司的財務長。

This morning, we will discuss our results for the fourth quarter, which were better than our internal projections and analysts forecast. We will also discuss some of the trends we are seeing update you on our strategic priorities and provide you with our three-year forecast. I'm excited to share our fourth quarter results and even more excited about the momentum and progress we are seeing going on in 2025.

今天上午，我們將討論第四季度的業績，該業績好於我們的內部預測和分析師的預測。我們還將討論我們看到的一些趨勢，向您介紹我們的策略重點，並為您提供我們的三年預測。我很高興分享我們第四季的業績，更為我們在 2025 年看到的勢頭和進步感到興奮。

As I look back on 2024, I think we've accomplished a lot of things in a very short period of time. While last year was a transitional year for the organization, we really made significant progress on all of our strategic priorities, setting the stage for profitable growth going forward. When I joined the company last March, we outlined for the investment community, our three primary objectives for the year. They included understanding the credit risk in the commercial real estate portfolio, getting our hands around the regulatory compliance issues and putting the bank back on a path to profitability.

回顧 2024 年，我認為我們在很短的時間內完成了很多事情。雖然去年是公司的過渡年，但我們在所有策略重點上都取得了重大進展，為未來的獲利成長奠定了基礎。去年三月我加入公司時，我們向投資界概述了今年的三個主要目標。其中包括了解商業房地產投資組合中的信用風險、解決監管合規問題以及讓銀行重回獲利之路。

Today, I can say that we've done this and that the company is in a better position than it was 12 months ago and strategically for a long time. We are on projections to be profitable now in the fourth quarter of this year, and I think this will ultimately mark the company's turning point on its return to consistent profitability.

今天，我可以說，我們做到了這一點，而且公司目前的地位比 12 個月前更好，而且在很長一段時間內都具有更好的戰略地位。我們預計今年第四季將實現盈利，我認為這最終將標誌著公司恢復持續盈利的轉折點。

Moving on to our presentation, starting on page 3. This slide provides you with an update of our strategic focus. As you can see across the top, we continue to bolster management and talent in the organization. And more importantly, as we kind of look forward in our C&I business, we added significant amounts of new talent to grow that business. We'll talk a little bit about some of those results.

繼續我們的演示，從第 3 頁開始。這張投影片為您提供了我們策略重點的更新。正如您所看到的，我們繼續加強組織的管理和人才。更重要的是，當我們對 C&I 業務充滿期待時，我們吸收了大量新人才來發展這項業務。我們將稍微談論一下其中的一些結果。

Ongoing execution of our operating plan the third quarter -- this is the third quarter of consecutive solid deposit growth in our Retail and Private Banking. We've continued to reduce our CRE exposure. We've had proactive management of our problem loans, and we successfully completed the sale of the mortgage warehouse and mortgaging servicing and subservicing businesses.

我們第三季的營運計畫正在持續執行——這是我們零售銀行和私人銀行存款連續第三個季度穩定成長。我們持續減少對 CRE 的投資。我們對問題貸款進行了積極主動的管理，並成功完成了抵押倉庫和抵押貸款服務和次級服務業務的出售。

On the goal strategic focus of achieving capital and earnings, we're on track to reach the full profitability in 2026. And in improving funding costs, we have strong liquidity profile of over $31 billion. We reduced wholesale borrowings by almost $7 billion or 34% during the year and now represents just 13% of total assets, and our loan deposit ratio is at 90%.

在實現資本和收益的目標策略重點上，我們預計在 2026 年實現全面獲利。在改善融資成本方面，我們擁有超過 310 億美元的強勁流動性。我們今年減少了批發借款近 70 億美元，降幅為 34%，目前僅佔總資產的 13%，而我們的貸款存款比率為 90%。

On the focus of credit and risk management, if we've taken you through the journey, we've completed the reviews of our CRE. We derisked the office and multifamily portfolios through charge-offs, payoffs and loan sales and we maintained a solid ACL coverage ratio of 1.78%, but this is importantly we've increased those on the riskiest aspects of the portfolio.

就信貸和風險管理的重點而言，如果我們帶您經歷了整個旅程，那麼我們已經完成了對CRE的審查。我們透過沖銷、還清和貸款銷售降低了辦公室和多戶型投資組合的風險，並維持了 1.78% 的穩健 ACL 覆蓋率，但重要的是，我們增加了投資組合中最有風險的方面的覆蓋率。

So I think overall, we really feel good and comfortable about the direction. And probably the most important slide or area on that slide is that our CET capital ratio for the fourth quarter was up to 11.9%, up over 280 basis points during the course of the year and ranking us within the top quartile of our peers. So very, very successful growth and strategic focus for the organization.

因此我認為總的來說，我們對這個方向確實感到滿意和放心。可能這張投影片上最重要的部分是，我們的第四季的 CET 資本比率上升至 11.9%，全年上升了 280 個基點，在同業中位居前四分之一。因此，該組織的成長和策略重點非常非常成功。

On slide 4, as you can expect, our transition in 2025, there are really four main areas that we're focused on. We want to improve our earnings profile via NIM expansion, moderating credit costs and driving operational efficiency. By the end of 2025, will have reduced our operating expenses by $600 million or 23% compared to 2024. We also want to execute on our C&I and private bank growth initiatives. We want to continually proactive the CRE size of the portfolio and the make of it. And then we want our credit to normalize resulting in lower charge-offs provision and slowing new loan formation.

在投影片 4 上，正如您所預料的，我們在 2025 年的轉型實際上主要關註四個領域。我們希望透過擴大淨利差、降低信貸成本和提高營運效率來改善我們的獲利狀況。到 2025 年底，我們的營運費用將與 2024 年相比減少 6 億美元，即 23%。我們也希望執行我們的商業和工業以及私人銀行成長計劃。我們希望不斷積極主動地擴大和優化投資組合的 CRE 規模和結構。然後我們希望我們的信用正常化，從而降低沖銷準備金並減緩新貸款的形成。

On slide 5, we provide an update on the commercial banking to illustrate how far we've come over the last six months. Starting in the lower left of the slide, we continue to hire seasoned mid-career bankers from other regional and money center banks who have a proven track record of building a commercial business. We added 24 bankers during the quarter across various functions and line of business on top of the 30 we hired during the third quarter and we plan to hire an additional 100 over the course of 2025.

在投影片 5 上，我們提供了商業銀行業務的最新情況，以說明我們在過去六個月中取得的進展。從幻燈片的左下角開始，我們繼續從其他地區銀行和貨幣中心銀行聘請經驗豐富的中期銀行家，他們在建立商業業務方面有著良好的記錄。我們在本季各個職能部門和業務線上新增了 24 位銀行家，而第三季我們已招募了 30 位銀行家，我們計劃在 2025 年再招募 100 位。

On the lending front, we already have a good platform of roughly $7.2 billion to begin with, and our new hires are starting to make an impact. As you can see on the slide, during the fourth quarter, we had new loan commitments of $620 million and funded slightly under $400 billion of loans, double what we did in the third quarter.

在貸款方面，我們已經擁有一個約 72 億美元的良好平台，我們的新員工也開始產生影響。正如您在幻燈片上看到的，在第四季度，我們有 6.2 億美元的新貸款承諾，並提供略低於 4000 億美元的貸款資金，是第三季度的兩倍。

We also have a solid base of low-cost deposits and a meaningful opportunity to grow both loans and deposits in this segment as end market mergers and the exit of competition has allowed us to expand market share. And then as some of our competitors have capacity in various credit facilities, we're a welcome new entrant into those credit facilities as well.

我們也擁有堅實的低成本存款基礎和在這個領域增加貸款和存款的重要機會，因為終端市場合併和競爭的退出使我們能夠擴大市場份額。由於我們的一些競爭對手在各種信貸安排方面都有能力，因此我們也歡迎這些信貸安排的新進者。

So with that, I'd like to turn it over to our CFO, Lee Smith, for his comments.

因此，我想將這個問題交給我們的財務長李史密斯 (Lee Smith)，請他發表評論。

Thank you, Joseph, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，約瑟夫，大家早安。

Before I dig into the quarter's results, I do want to reemphasize how we are executing on our strategic plan to transform Flagstar into a top-performing diversified relationship-driven regional bank. During the last nine months, Joseph and the new investors have assembled a strong Board of Directors and a quality executive management team.

在深入研究本季的業績之前，我想再次強調我們如何執行戰略計劃，將 Flagstar 轉變為一家業績優異、多元化、關係驅動的地區銀行。在過去的九個月裡，約瑟夫和新投資者組成了強大的董事會和高素質的執行管理團隊。

Furthermore, we have executed on several initiatives which creates a solid foundation from which we can build from. Pivotal to this, was the sale of the mortgage warehouse portfolio in the third quarter, which created 70 basis points of Tier 1 capital and approximately $6 billion of liquidity. This was supplemented in the fourth quarter by the sale of the MSR asset, the servicing, subservicing business and the TPO origination business. This latter transaction provided several benefits for the bank. It created 50 basis points of Tier 1 capital and allowed us to jump start our cost optimization program.

此外，我們也實施了多項舉措，為我們未來的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。其中最關鍵的是第三季抵押貸款倉庫組合的出售，這創造了 70 個基點的一級資本和約 60 億美元的流動性。第四季度，該公司出售了 MSR 資產、服務、次級服務業務以及 TPO 發起業務，進一步補充了這項業務。後一筆交易為銀行帶來了多項好處。它創造了 50 個基點的一級資本，並使我們能夠啟動成本優化計劃。

We have continued with the cost optimization program with a focus on getting our non-interest expense run rate in line with previously provided guidance full year 2025. As Joseph mentioned, we are planning to reduce operating expenses by $600 million in 2025, and we are on track to get there. Many initiatives have either been completed or are in process and include particular focus on compensation and benefits, then to spend real estate optimization and process improvements. These actions will result in a leaner and much more efficient organization without compromising our commitment to safety and soundness.

我們繼續實施成本優化計劃，重點是使我們的非利息支出運作率與先前提供的 2025 年全年指導保持一致。正如約瑟夫所提到的，我們計劃在 2025 年減少 6 億美元的營運費用，而且我們正在按計劃實現這一目標。許多舉措已經完成或正在進行中，包括特別關注薪資和福利，然後是房地產優化和流程改進。這些措施將使組織更加精簡、更有效率，同時又不損害我們對安全和穩健的承諾。

Additionally, during the fourth quarter, we used our excess cash position to deleverage and pay down higher cost wholesale borrowings. We paid down just under $5 billion of FHLB advances with a blended weighted average cost of 4.83%. We repaid $1 billion advance from the bank term funding program with a WACC of 4.85%, and we repaid $2.8 billion of brokered deposits and issued only $200 million of new brokered deposits for a net paydown of $2.6 billion with a WACC of approximately 5.2%. Given the tolling of most of these paydowns, the full benefits to the net interest margin, will not be realized until the first quarter of 2025.

此外，在第四季度，我們利用多餘的現金部位去槓桿並償還高成本的批發借款。我們償還了近 50 億美元的 FHLB 貸款，混合加權平均成本為 4.83%。我們從銀行定期融資計畫中償還了 10 億美元的預付款，加權平均資本成本為 4.85%，並且償還了 28 億美元的經紀存款，僅發行了 2 億美元的新經紀存款，淨償還金額為 26 億美元，加權平均資本成本約為 5.2%。鑑於大部分還款暫停，淨利差的全部收益要到 2025 年第一季才能實現。

Furthermore, these paydowns, in addition to improving our funding profile have also helped reduce our FDIC insurance costs another focal point of our cost optimization strategy, which declined $24 million in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. The paydown of wholesale borrowings has also been made possible by the continued strength in our deposit gathering, which I will elaborate on later.

此外，這些還款除了改善我們的資金狀況外，還幫助我們降低 FDIC 保險成本，這也是我們的成本優化策略的另一個重點，與第三季相比，第四季的保險成本下降了 2,400 萬美元。我們存款累積的持續強勁也使得批發借款的償還成為可能，我將在後面詳細說明。

Moving to slide 6. As Joseph said, our results came in better than expected with a smaller loss for both fourth quarter and full year 2024. Fourth quarter results had a number of notable items, which are outlined on this slide. On a GAAP basis, we reported a net loss available to common stockholders of $0.41 per diluted share. Notable items included a $92 million gain on the sale of the mortgage businesses and related activity, which included $3 million trailing revenues tied to the business and assets sold, $31 million in severance costs, $77 million in long-term real estate asset impairments, $12 million in trailing expenses related to the sale of the mortgage businesses and $11 million in merger-related expenses. Once you factor in all of these items, our fourth quarter net loss narrowed to $0.34 per diluted share.

移至幻燈片 6。正如約瑟夫所說，我們的業績好於預期，第四季和 2024 年全年的虧損均有所縮小。第四季的業績有許多值得注意的項目，本投影片對此進行了概述。根據 GAAP 基礎，我們報告普通股股東每股攤薄淨虧損 0.41 美元。值得注意的項目包括出售抵押貸款業務和相關活動獲得的 9,200 萬美元收益，其中包括與出售的業務和資產相關的 300 萬美元的後續收入、3,100 萬美元的遣散費、7,700 萬美元的長期房地產資產減損、與出售抵押貸款業務有關的 1,200 萬美元的後續費用以及 110 萬美元的合併相關費用。一旦將所有這些因素考慮在內，我們第四季的淨虧損將縮小至每股攤薄虧損 0.34 美元。

Slide 7 has summary statistics on our capital and liquidity position. As you can see, our CET1 ratio of 11.9% improved dramatically compared to the previous quarter and to the year ago quarter and places us in the top quartile among both Category 4 banks and regional banks between $50 billion and $100 billion in assets. Adjusting for AOCI, our CET1 capital ratio would be 10.8%, also in the top quartile relative to peers.

投影片 7 顯示了我們的資本和流動性狀況的統計總和。如您所見，我們的 CET1 比率為 11.9%，與上一季和去年同期相比大幅改善，使我們在 4 類銀行和資產規模在 500 億美元至 1000 億美元的地區性銀行中位居前列。經 AOCI 調整後，我們的 CET1 資本比率將達到 10.8%，與同業相比也處於最高水準。

Moving to slide 8. This slide reflects our actual results for full year '24 compared to the forecast we provided last quarter. You can see that we were in line to slightly better than expected for each of the major line items.

移至幻燈片 8。此投影片反映了我們 24 年全年的實際業績與上個季度提供的預測相比的情況。您可以看到，我們每個主要項目的業績都略好於預期。

Slide 9 provides our updated forecast for '25 out through 2027. I will note that we are forecasting a smaller loss per share relative to the previous guidance in 2025. For 2025, while our net interest income is slightly lower than previously forecast, driven primarily by smaller balance sheet, it is more than offset by slightly higher non-interest income and lower non-interest expenses. Our EPS guidance for '26 and '27 remain unchanged.

第 9 頁提供了我們對 2025 年至 2027 年的最新預測。我要指出的是，我們預測 2025 年每股虧損將比先前的預期減少。對於 2025 年而言，雖然我們的淨利息收入略低於先前的預測，這主要是由於資產負債表規模較小，但非利息收入略有增加和非利息支出下降足以抵消這一影響。我們對26年和27年的每股盈餘預期保持不變。

Slide 10 is another look at our strengthened capital position. Our CET1 ratio increased over 280 basis points over the past year to 11.9%. Due to the strategic actions taken in 2024, this capital will be redeployed into growing our C&I and consumer businesses as we look to create a diversified balance sheet.

投影片 10 是從另一個角度展現我們增強的資本狀況。過去一年，我們的 CET1 比率增加了 280 多個基點，達到 11.9%。由於 2024 年採取的策略行動，我們尋求創建多元化的資產負債表，這筆資本將重新部署到發展我們的 C&I 和消費者業務中。

Slide 11 is an overview of our quarter-over-quarter deposit growth. While our overall deposits decreased approximately $7 billion, largely due to the sale of the mortgage servicing business, we saw strong growth in our retail channel of $900 million and in the private bank of $500 million. The sale of the mortgage servicing business has also allowed us to reduce the amount of higher-cost escrow deposits. Approximately $4.5 billion of these deposits have left the bank and we expect the remaining $1 billion to $1.25 billion to a fully run off by the middle of the first quarter.

投影片 11 是我們季度間存款成長的概覽。雖然我們的整體存款減少了約 70 億美元（主要是由於抵押貸款服務業務的出售），但我們的零售通路存款強勁增長 9 億美元，私人銀行存款增長 5 億美元。抵押貸款服務業務的出售也使我們能夠減少高成本的託管存款金額。其中約 45 億美元存款已流出銀行，我們預計剩餘的 10 億至 12.5 億美元將在第一季中期全部流出。

I would also point out that cycle to date, our deposit beta has been running over 45%. To put this into context, we deliberately lagged on the first 50 basis point rate cut in September, but for the November and December rate cuts, we were within or above our targeted beta range of 55% to 60%.

我還要指出的是，到目前為止，我們的存款測試版已經超過 45%。具體來說，在 9 月首次降息 50 個基點時，我們故意落後，但對於 11 月和 12 月的降息，我們的貝塔係數都在 55% 至 60% 的目標範圍內或之上。

If we turn to slide 12, we had another strong quarter for commercial real estate payoffs all of which were at par. During the quarter, we saw $916 million of multifamily and CRE payoffs of which $440 million or 48% were categorized as substandard. This has continued the trend of plus/minus $1 billion par payoffs per quarter over the last three quarters.

如果我們翻到第 12 張投影片，我們又迎來了一個商業房地產收益強勁的季度，所有收益均持平。在本季度，我們看到 9.16 億美元的多戶型和 CRE 收益，其中 4.4 億美元或 48% 被歸類為不合格。這延續了過去三個季度中每季票面收益正負 10 億美元的趨勢。

On the lower part of this slide, you can see the success we've made today on reducing our CRE concentration. On a spot basis, total CRE balances, excluding owner-occupied CRE are down $4.7 billion or 9% year over year. Also, if you look at our CRE concentration ratio, it declined to 443% from 501%. These declines are a testament to how proactive we've been in managing down our CRE exposure.

在這張投影片的下半部分，您可以看到我們今天在降低 CRE 濃度方面所取得的成功。以現貨計算，不包括自住 CRE 在內的 CRE 總餘額年減 47 億美元，降幅為 9%。另外，如果你看看我們的CRE集中度，它從501％下降到了443％。這些下降證明了我們在降低企業房地產風險敞口方面採取了多麼積極主動的措施。

Slide 13 is a breakout of our loan portfolio and our priorities for 2025. In 2025, we will continue to reduce overall CRE exposure through a combination of payoffs and loan sales, grow the C&I businesses and grow the residential mortgage portfolio, leveraging our bank branch and private client customers together with our full suite of mortgage products.

投影片 13 列出了我們的貸款組合和 2025 年的重點事項。2025 年，我們將繼續透過還款和貸款銷售相結合的方式降低整體 CRE 風險，發展 C&I 業務並增加住宅抵押貸款組合，利用我們的銀行分行和私人客戶以及我們的全套抵押貸款產品。

During the quarter, we sold approximately $244 million of non-accrual CRE assets, including our largest office credit moved to further $266 million to available for sale, which we expect to close sometime during the first quarter. We also sold $42 million of non-performing one-to-four family loans during Q4. We will continue to be opportunistic and explore all options, including loan sales as it relates to reducing our CRE exposure and non-performing loans and we'll execute on transactions that are in the best economic interest of Flagstar.

在本季度，我們出售了約 2.44 億美元的非應計 CRE 資產，其中包括我們最大的辦公室信貸，進一步增加 2.66 億美元以用於出售，我們預計將在第一季的某個時候完成。我們還在第四季度出售了 4,200 萬美元的不良一至四家庭貸款。我們將繼續抓住機會，探索所有選擇，包括與減少 CRE 風險和不良貸款相關的貸款銷售，並執行符合 Flagstar 最佳經濟利益的交易。

The next slide provides an overview of our multifamily portfolio. As you can see, we have reduced this portfolio by $3.2 billion or 9% in 2024 through payoffs, sales and charge-offs, having charged off over $300 million last year. Our allowance coverage at 12/31, excluding co-op loans, stood at 1.9%, the highest relative to other multifamily focused lenders in the Northeast.

下一張投影片概述了我們的多戶型住宅投資組合。如您所見，我們透過付款、銷售和核銷，在 2024 年將該投資組合減少了 32 億美元，即 9%，而去年已核銷了超過 3 億美元。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的撥備覆蓋率（不包括合作社貸款）為 1.9%，與東北地區其他專注於多戶型房屋的貸款機構相比最高。

During 2024, $3 billion of multifamily loans have reset. And as of January 22, 41% or $1.2 billion are paid off. The remaining $1.8 billion repriced per the contractual terms of the loan agreement and $1.5 billion of those loan resets occurrence. In other words, 90% of multifamily loans resetting in 2024 to be the paid off or have repriced and occurrent another indicator that borrowers are standing behind our properties. As we look forward, we have approximately $5 billion of multifamily loans either resetting or maturing in '25 and another $5 billion in 2026 and almost $9 billion in 2027.

2024 年，30 億美元的多戶型貸款已重置。截至 1 月 22 日，已償還 41%，即 12 億美元。剩餘 18 億美元按照貸款協議的合約條款重新定價，其中 15 億美元貸款重置。換句話說，90% 的多戶家庭貸款將在 2024 年重置為還清或重新定價，這是藉款人支持我們的房產的另一個指標。展望未來，我們將有約 50 億美元的多戶型貸款在 2025 年重置或到期，另外還有 50 億美元將在 2026 年到期，近 90 億美元將在 2027 年到期。

Slide 15 provides an overview of the office portfolio. We have been very proactive in managing this portfolio reflected by a $900 million or 27% decline in the portfolio during the year, which now represents $2.5 billion or 3.6% of total loans. As with the multifamily portfolio, we've done this through a combination of payoffs, loan sales and charge-offs of $368 million. Our allowance coverage at 12/31, excluding owner-occupied CRE increased to 7% among the highest compared to our regional bank peers. During the quarter, we sold our largest office exposure.

投影片 15 概述了辦公室組合。我們非常積極主動管理該投資組合，今年該投資組合減少了 9 億美元，即 27%，目前佔貸款總額的 25 億美元，即 3.6%。與多戶型房地產投資組合一樣，我們透過還款、貸款銷售和 3.68 億美元的沖銷相結合的方式實現了這一目標。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的撥備覆蓋率（不包括自住 CRE）上升至 7%，與地區銀行同業相比最高。在本季度，我們出售了最大的辦公室股權。

Slide 16 provides our allowance by loan category. There are three points I'd like to make. First, both our total allowance for loan losses coverage ratio and our total ACL coverage, including unfunded commitments decreased slightly but remain at very strong levels. The decrease was driven by lower loan balances. Second, our coverage on those asset classes perceived to have more risk, rent-regulated multifamily and office increased during the quarter. And third, during 2024, we took significant charge-offs on the portfolio, totaling nearly $900 million. This, along with our allowance and our strong capital position provides a significant cushion to absorb any future losses.

投影片 16 顯示了我們按貸款類別劃分的撥備。我想要講三點。首先，我們的總貸款損失準備覆蓋率和總 ACL 覆蓋率（包括未撥付承諾）均略有下降，但仍保持在非常強勁的水平。下降是由於貸款餘額減少。其次，我們在本季增加了那些被認為風險較高的資產類別、受租金管制的多戶住宅和辦公室的報告。第三，2024 年，我們對投資組合進行了大規模沖銷，總額近 9 億美元。這一點，加上我們的準備金和強大的資本狀況，為吸收未來的任何損失提供了重要的緩衝。

Next, on slide 17, we provide some additional color around our asset quality trends. Our non-accrual loans increased $101 million or 4% to $2.6 billion. However, it is important to note that 56% of our non-accrual loans are current and performing. We have been proactively working to identify problem loans and put them on a path to resolution.

接下來，在第 17 張投影片中，我們將提供有關資產品質趨勢的一些額外資訊。我們的非應計貸款增加了 1.01 億美元，即 4%，達到 26 億美元。然而，值得注意的是，我們的56％的非應計貸款都是目前有效的。我們一直在積極主動地發現問題貸款並予以解決。

As I mentioned earlier, we moved approximately $266 million net of $20 million in charge-offs to held for sale. Also during the quarter, we saw a linked quarter increase in delinquencies, primarily in the multifamily portfolio. This was largely due to one borrower. And as of January 22, $541 million of the loans were brought current.

正如我之前提到的，我們將約 2.66 億美元（扣除 2,000 萬美元的沖銷額）轉為持有待售資產。此外，在本季度，我們發現拖欠率較上季增加，主要是在多戶型投資組合中。這很大程度歸咎於一位借款人。截至 1 月 22 日，已有 5.41 億美元貸款償還。

Finally, slide 18 depicts our liquidity profile. Overall, our liquidity remains strong due to continued growth in core deposits. We have approximately $32 billion of total liquidity which represents almost 250% of uninsured deposits. During the quarter, we utilized excess cash to pay down high-cost borrowings and including wholesale borrowings and brokered CDs, which improved our funding profile. In conclusion, we're very pleased with what we've accomplished in a short period of time and feel as if we've laid the foundations and are on track to deliver significant value to our shareholders over the next 24 months.

最後，投影片 18 描述了我們的流動性狀況。整體而言，由於核心存款持續成長，我們的流動性依然強勁。我們的總流動資金約為 320 億美元，佔無保險存款的近 250%。在本季度，我們利用多餘的現金償還高成本借款，包括批發借款和經紀存單，從而改善了我們的融資狀況。總而言之，我們對在短時間內取得的成就感到非常高興，並且感覺我們已經奠定了基礎，並有望在未來 24 個月內為股東帶來巨大價值。

Joseph, I'll turn the call back to you.

約瑟夫，我會把電話轉給你。

Great. Thank you very much, Lee, and thank you for sharing that positive news. We as an organization and a board and all our employees across the company have worked very hard over the last 12 months to rightsize this organization and position it for successful growth.

偉大的。非常感謝，李，謝謝你分享這個正面的消息。作為一個組織、一個董事會，以及公司所有員工，我們在過去 12 個月裡一直努力工作，以調整組織規模，以實現成功成長。

One final slide before turning you over for questions. On slide 19, we show Flagstar's investment profile. I believe most of you are aware, we currently trade at a discount of our tangible book value is roughly between 55% and 60%. This compares to 184% for our Category 4 banks at about 166% for our regional banks. So we believe this valuation gap should narrow over time as our profitability outlook continues to improve.

在向你們提問之前，請先看最後一張投影片。在投影片 19 上，我們展示了 Flagstar 的投資概況。我相信大多數人都知道，我們目前的交易價格比有形帳面價值折價大約在 55% 至 60% 之間。相較之下，我們的四類銀行的比例為 184%，地區性銀行的比例約為 166%。因此，我們相信，隨著獲利前景的不斷改善，這種估值差距應該會隨著時間的推移而縮小。

We show that we are successfully executing on our turnaround strategy and our credit quality continues to improve. And then finally, I would like to thank each of our teammates for their dedication and determination and their commitment to our customers as we start to move forward with our 2025 to 2027 strategic plan that the Board approved and it's a high focus on profitability, being a customer-centric organization in building out the risk infrastructure within the organization.

我們表明，我們正在成功執行我們的扭虧為盈策略，並且我們的信用品質持續改善。最後，我要感謝我們每一位隊友的奉獻、決心和對客戶的承諾，我們開始推進董事會批准的 2025 年至 2027 年戰略計劃，該計劃高度注重盈利能力，是一個以客戶為中心的組織，在組織內部構建風險基礎設施。

And with that, operator, I'd like to be happy to turn it over for questions.

接線員，我很樂意將它交給大家提問。

(Operator Instructions) Mark Fitzgibbon, Piper Sandler.

（操作員指示）馬克·菲茨吉本、派珀·桑德勒。

Lee, you mentioned real estate optimization in your comments. I guess I was curious -- does that suggest that you're contemplating a sale leaseback on branches? Or does that suggest that you're contemplating branch consolidation?

李，您在評論中提到了房地產優化。我想我很好奇——這是否表明您正在考慮對分行進行售後回租？或者這是否表明您正在考慮分支機構合併？

Thanks for the question, Mark. So as we talk about real estate impairments, it actually relates to several of our locations. There are a couple of operating centers that we are looking to consolidate that we own and move out of those into smaller facilities. There were about 20 private client retail locations that we are looking to consolidate and they are in close proximity to other locations. So we feel we can be more efficient and not lose anything from a customer service point of view.

謝謝你的提問，馬克。因此，當我們談論房地產減損時，它實際上與我們的幾個地點有關。我們正在考慮合併我們擁有的幾個營運中心，並將其遷移到規模較小的設施。我們希望整合約 20 個私人客戶零售點，它們與其他地點距離很近。因此，我們認為我們可以提高效率，而且從客戶服務的角度來看不會有任何損失。

And then there are approximately 60 retail branches, most of which we lease that we are looking to consolidate. Again, these are close to other locations. And so we do not feel there will be any disruption to the customer experience and we're phasing the closure of those branches in three different phases, one of which is already underway and then a further two phases that will occur later this year.

另外還有大約 60 個零售分支機構，其中大部分是我們租賃的，我們正在考慮合併。再次，這些位置靠近其他位置。因此，我們認為這不會對客戶體驗造成任何干擾，我們將分三個階段關閉這些分支機構，其中一個階段已經在進行中，另外兩個階段將於今年稍後進行。

Okay. And then just one follow-up unrelated. Could you help us think about how you're viewing the securities portfolio be OCL mark increased pretty significantly this quarter. I guess I'm curious, any plans to restructure that or potentially grow that portfolio?

好的。然後只剩下一個不相關的後續行動。您能否幫助我們思考一下您如何看待本季度 OCL 標記大幅增加的證券投資組合。我想我很好奇，有什麼計劃重組或潛在擴大該投資組合嗎？

Yes. So you're exactly right. The -- if you look at the flash report we put up all the metrics were green other than the total book value. That was driven by increased AOCI losses as a result of interest rate movements.

是的。所以你說得完全正確。如果你看我們提供的快訊報告，你會發現除了總帳面價值之外，所有指標都是綠色的。這是由於利率變動導致 AOCI 損失增加所致。

As we look forward into '25, right now, we do contemplate growing the securities portfolio. But we'll obviously be dynamic in how we manage that, and we'll allocate the cash where we can generate the best returns for the organization. But we are contemplating at this moment increasing that securities portfolio as we move through '25.

展望25年，現在我們確實在考慮擴大證券投資組合。但我們顯然會採取靈活的管理方式，並將現金分配到可以為組織創造最佳回報的地方。但我們目前正在考慮25年內增加證券投資組合。

Jared Shaw, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的賈里德·肖 (Jared Shaw)。

I guess when you look at the capital ratios being sort of above target and then the discussion around the potential for some loan sales. Is there an expectation that some of that excess capital can maybe give some color on the loan sales and take this there? Or do you feel the current reserves contemplate the potential market price hit from sales?

我想，當您看到資本比率高於目標，然後討論一些貸款銷售的可能性時。是否預期這些過剩資本可能會對貸款銷售帶來一些影響並實現這一目標？或者您認為目前的儲備已經考慮到銷售可能帶來的市場價格衝擊？

Thank you for the question. We feel in our ECL model, when a credit becomes non-performing, it comes out of the model, we do specific reserves against those particular loans. And so we feel pretty comfortable over the last four quarters as we've looked at those loans, got updated financials, received appraisals that when we've executed on sales of the portfolios, we've had minor increases in some loans of charge-off.

感謝您的提問。我們認為，在我們的 ECL 模型中，當一筆貸款變為不良貸款時，它就會從模型中消失，我們會針對這些特定貸款提列特定準備金。因此，我們對過去四個季度的這些貸款感到非常滿意，我們查看了這些貸款，獲得了最新的財務狀況，收到了評估，當我們執行投資組合的銷售時，一些註銷貸款略有增加。

We've actually had some gains on some charge-offs. So we feel that portfolio overall is pretty well marked. But obviously, we have strong reserves against that. And then in addition to the capital, I think really it comes down to how can we deploy that excess capital to further grow the loans on the balance sheet, and that's really where our focus will be in 2025.

我們實際上在一些沖銷中獲得了一定收益。因此，我們認為投資組合整體表現相當優異。但顯然，我們對此有強大的儲備。除了資本之外，我認為真正的問題在於我們如何部署過剩資本來進一步增加資產負債表上的貸款，而這正是我們 2025 年的重點。

Okay. And then when we look at that guidance for NII and some of the broader guidance ranges there, what does that balance sheet growth look like? What's the expectation for either loan growth or end-of-period loans as we look out over the next -- for '25 and '26.

好的。然後，當我們查看 NII 的指導以及一些更廣泛的指導範圍時，資產負債表的成長如何？展望未來—2025 年和 2026 年—對貸款成長或期末貸款的預期是什麼？

Yes. Well, so as you look at '25, so we ended the year '24 at about $100 billion. We're looking at ending '25 at around $98 billion. And so what you've got to remember is we will continue to run down the CRE and multifamily portfolios and redeploy that into C&I growth.

是的。好吧，當你看 25 年時，我們在 24 年結束時的資產負債表約為 1000 億美元。我們預計到25年底該數字將達到約980億美元。因此，你必須記住的是，我們將繼續減少 CRE 和多戶型投資組合，並將其重新部署到 C&I 成長中。

We do have some excess cash at the moment, and we do imagine that we'll continue to pay off or down brokered deposits. And so that's why you see that slight reduction of about $2 billion, and it's why the interest income is slightly lower than previously forecast but the NIM is staying pretty constant. And then when you look forward to 2026, we imagine a balance sheet at the end of the year around $104 million, $105 billion.

我們目前確實有一些多餘的現金，而且我們確實想像我們將繼續償還或減少經紀存款。這就是為什麼你會看到約 20 億美元的小幅減少，也是為什麼利息收入略低於先前的預測，但淨利差保持相當穩定。然後，當你展望 2026 年時，我們想像到年底的資產負債表將在 1.04 億美元到 1050 億美元左右。

Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott.

克里斯多福·馬裡納克、珍妮·蒙哥馬利·史考特。

Joseph wanted to ask you about retaining the former Signature teams. Is there anything that you need to do with personnel there to retain that business? Or are you comfortable with kind of where that sits at this moment?

約瑟夫想問您關於保留前 Signature 團隊的問題。您需要對那裡的人員做些什麼來保留這項業務？或者您對目前的狀況感到滿意嗎？

Yes. I think we're comfortable where it sits today. Obviously, we've started to a joke the resources in that organization. But I mean we feel pretty comfortable where the team is, where the locations are and our ability, as we're growing the C&I business, it's a natural extension for the private bankers to be able to interact and solicit the executives and owners of those companies.

是的。我認為我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。顯然，我們已經開始拿該組織的資源開玩笑了。但我的意思是，我們對團隊所在位置、地點和能力感到非常滿意，隨著我們 C&I 業務的成長，私人銀行家能夠與這些公司的高階主管和所有者進行互動和招攬客戶是自然而然的延伸。

So I think in tandem a little bit different is we do have private banking and C&I under which Repetto's leadership. And the reason for that is my experience is kind of a long time C&I banker the more integrated we can have the personal bankers, with the commercial bankers that will result in a more harmonious relationship and get a larger share of wallet of both the individual and the corporate relationship.

因此，我認為略有不同的是，我們確實擁有私人銀行和 C&I，由 Repetto 領導。原因在於，根據我長期從事商業和工業銀行工作的經驗，個人銀行和商業銀行之間的融合度越高，關係就越融洽，個人和企業關係中的收益份額就越大。

Great. And within the guide today, is there any implied deposit growth on a core basis? I know Lee talked about paying down brokered.

偉大的。今天的指南中是否有隱含的核心存款成長？我知道李談到了償還經紀費用。

Yes, there is, yes. We are anticipating core deposit growth coming from the consumer bank and the private bank. And that will as we pay down broker deposits. And we also, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, expect another $1 billion to $1.5 billion of mortgage growth to run off in the first quarter as the final loans that were sold as part of the mortgage transaction in Q4 are transferred off the platform.

有，有。我們預期核心存款將成長來自消費銀行和私人銀行。當我們償還經紀人押金時，情況就會如此。而且正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們預計第一季抵押貸款將再增長 10 億至 15 億美元，因為第四季度作為抵押貸款交易的一部分出售的最終貸款將轉出平台。

Yes. I think one maybe point on that is one of the big shifts that occurred both this year and we expect to connect this year is shifting out of high-cost funding sources. The wholesale borrowings, the flood advances, the broker deposit and replacing those with core deposits. And we feel pretty comfortable we have the infrastructure and franchise to be able to do that.

是的。我認為可能的一個觀點是今年發生的和我們預計今年將發生的一個重大轉變是高成本資金來源的轉移。批發借款、大額預付款、經紀人存款以及用核心存款取代這些。我們感到非常放心，我們擁有能夠做到這一點的基礎設施和特許經營權。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的馬南‧戈薩利亞 (Manan Gosalia)。

You noted the CRE review is complete. NPLs haven't really gone up that much, and you're broadly guiding forward provisions in line with your prior guide. So I guess the question here is, level of rates have you marked the portfolio to? And if the long end of the curve starts to move up again, how much does that matter for credit performance overall?

您注意到 CRE 審查已完成。不良貸款實際上並沒有增加那麼多，而且您大體上按照之前的指導方針來指導前期撥備。所以我想這裡的問題是，您將投資組合的利率標定在什麼水準？如果曲線的長端開始再次上升，這對整體信貸表現有多大影響？

Yes. So a couple -- as we've been here now, roughly nine months and have the ability to kind of really look at the characteristics of the portfolio, a couple points that I think are important is one is the payoffs that we had during the year were slightly below $3.5 billion and of that $3.5 billion, $1.3 billion of it was substandard or rated credits, so roughly 38%. So our pattern is as those loans are coming up and borrowers want to do that we're getting out at [$0.10] on the dollar. And so that is probably Initially, we expected based upon just the properties that perhaps we would -- that would not be the outcome, but it has been and that trend should continue.

是的。所以，現在我們已經在這裡大約九個月了，能夠真正地了解投資組合的特徵，我認為重要的幾點是，第一，我們今年的收益略低於 35 億美元，而在這 35 億美元中，有 13 億美元是次級或評級信貸，大約佔 38%。因此，我們的模式是，隨著這些貸款的出現，借款人希望這樣做，我們以每美元 [0.10 美元] 的價格獲得貸款。因此，這可能最初是我們僅根據屬性所預期的，也許這不會是結果，但它已經存在並且這種趨勢應該會持續下去。

And then Lee referenced the resets for interest rates. And we had roughly $3.5 billion of interest rate resets in '24, we have roughly about $4.9 billion of resets in 2025. And the performance in the resets has been pretty extraordinary, $1.4 billion of that paid off, leaving $2.1 billion and 90% of that is current. So what we're finding is that the borrowers of the type of relationships we have, many times, these are long-term assets and their family that required multi-generations that go and so they have a high desire to retain these properties. And so as we -- so those are kind of two data points.

然後李提到了利率的重新設定。我們在 2024 年進行了約 35 億美元的利率重置，在 2025 年，我們將進行約 49 億美元的利率重置。重置的表現非常出色，其中 14 億美元已付清，剩餘 21 億美元，其中 90% 是當前的。因此，我們發現，與我們存在這種關係的借款人很多時候擁有的是長期資產，而他們的家庭需要傳承好幾代人，因此他們非常希望保留這些財產。所以正如我們所說—它們是兩個數據點。

The third data point would be, as I think as we've shared on previous calls, we're constantly looking 18 months ahead of kind of what's rolling down the path, so to speak, in the price resets or maturities. We're looking at the current financials and then kind of projecting out like what the debt service cover views on those loans.

第三個數據點是，我認為正如我們在先前的電話會議中所分享的那樣，我們一直在展望未來 18 個月的價格重置或到期情況。我們正在研究目前的財務狀況，然後預測這些貸款的債務償還能力。

So while it does have impact, and obviously, if interest rates rise significantly, but really, over the 18 months, we feel pretty comfortable we understand the risk in the portfolio. In addition to that, we've done kind of a challenger model where we've looked at those loans that are in the entire portfolio and the impact of debt yields and quite frankly, we feel pretty comfortable that the risk is well contained in the book of business.

因此，雖然它確實有影響，而且顯然如果利率大幅上升，但實際上，在 18 個月內，我們感到相當放心，我們了解投資組合中的風險。除此之外，我們還建立了一個挑戰者模型，研究了整個投資組合中的貸款以及債務收益率的影響，坦白說，我們非常放心，風險在業務帳簿中得到了很好的控制。

So just a follow-up on that 18-month lookout, I guess as we get into later this year, you're going to start looking at 2027 and there is an elevated level of contractual maturities at that time. So if we're in a higher for longer rate environment, maybe if inflation is a little persistent there, would that impact how you're thinking about building reserves and provisions into this year and next year?

因此，作為對那 18 個月觀察的後續觀察，我想，隨著我們進入今年晚些時候，您將開始關注 2027 年，並且那時的合約到期水平會有所提高。因此，如果我們處於長期較高的利率環境中，也許如果通貨膨脹持續存在，這會影響您對今年和明年建立儲備和撥備的想法嗎？

It really comes down to the performance of the individual property. We look at each individual property with annual financial statements. I think we shared last year, we got virtually financials on 95% of the book. And year-over-year net income was roughly around 6%. So we'll begin to receive the 2024 financials here in the next 60 to 90 days, and then we'll do an individual property look -- and so it really depends on the NOI, where do the NOIs go on their respective properties and then in relationship to where the current interest rates. So it's a bit of a moving thing.

這實際上取決於個人財產的表現。我們透過年度財務報表來審查每個房產。我想我們去年分享了幾乎 95％ 的財務數據。年比淨收入約為 6% 左右。因此，我們將在未來 60 到 90 天內開始收到 2024 年的財務數據，然後我們將對單一房產進行查看 - 因此，這實際上取決於 NOI、NOI 在各自房產上的去向以及與當前利率的關係。所以這是件很感動的事情。

Obviously, just intuitively, if interest rates rise, there's going to be a higher debt service coverage with the interest, and we're mindful of that. And we look at -- and we do look at that if the loan matured today, and with current interest rates within amortization, what would that do to the debt service coverage. So we're mindful of that, and we continue to watch that and observe it. But yes, on the other side of that, what we're finding is hey, the payoffs at par and the resets are at such a high level that it really has exceeded our expectations.

顯然，從直覺上講，如果利率上升，那麼利息的償債覆蓋率就會更高，我們對此心知肚明。我們研究的是，如果貸款今天到期，並且按照攤銷內的當前利率，這會對債務償還能力產生什麼影響。所以我們留意了這一點，並且會繼續觀察和關注它。但另一方面，我們發現，票面收益和重置處於如此高的水平，確實超出了我們的預期。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Just two follow-up questions. One on capital. I'm wondering on CET1, you're well about your targets now. My sense is your risk-weighted assets are going to continue to go down. So just remind us if there is also a tangible common equity or CET1 or capital to CRE loans that you're managing to? And I guess the essence of the question is, could we see buybacks initiated at some point us, you mentioned where the stock trades relative to tangible book, I can buybacks will go a long way in terms of the ROTCE improvement and getting TBV accretion at these levels. So would love to hear how you're thinking about balance sheet runoff at what point do buybacks become a realistic option for the bank?

僅剩兩個後續問題。一個是關於資本。我想知道，關於 CET1，你現在是否已經達到了自己的目標。我的感覺是，你的風險加權資產將會繼續下降。所以請提醒我們，您是否還管理有形普通股、 CET1 或資本至 CRE 貸款？我想問題的本質是，我們是否可以看到在某個時間點啟動回購，您提到了股票交易相對於有形賬面的價值，我認為回購將在 ROTCE 改善和 TBV 增值方面發揮重要作用。所以很想聽聽您對資產負債表縮減的看法，什麼時候回購才會成為銀行的現實選擇？

We actually -- we haven't had any dialogue in the company with the Board regarding capital actions at this point. we really anticipate that we will use excess capital to be able to grow the balance sheet. That's really the focus. We think the company is very uniquely positioned now as a strong regional bank America needs a strong regional bank. That's another category for a bank.

實際上——目前我們還沒有與董事會就資本行動進行任何對話。我們確實預期我們將能夠使用過剩資本來擴大資產負債表。這才是真正的重點。我們認為，作為一家強大的地區銀行，該公司現在具有非常獨特的地位，美國需要一家強大的地區性銀行。對銀行來說這是另一個類別。

We see that in the C&I business because so many credits, the other regional banks are kind of tapped out in multi-bank we're a new entrant into that space. And we're also hiring people who have long histories and track record. So I think our first actions are, it would be to expand the balance sheet and continue to grow the loan book to create earning assets.

我們看到，在商業和工業領域，由於信貸數量太多，其他地區性銀行在多銀行業務中已經用盡了，我們是該領域的新進業者。我們也正在招募具有豐富經驗和良好績效的人才。因此，我認為我們的首要行動是擴大資產負債表並繼續增加貸款帳簿以創造獲利資產。

Understood. And I guess on that point, on C&I loans, from an industry standpoint, there's still uncertainty in terms of when you see a pickup in loan demand, how much will it be? Given as you pointed out, I think you're uniquely positioned on the back of all the hiring you've done. Give us a sense of just thinking about the C&I book, what's the level of growth do you expect? And does it really require a industry-wide pickup in loan growth? Or is there a lot of market share movement opportunities given the tenure of the bankers you've hired?

明白了。我想就這一點而言，從產業角度來看，對於商業和工業貸款，何時會出現貸款需求回升、回升幅度有多大，仍存在不確定性？正如您所指出的，我認為您憑藉所做的所有招聘而處於獨特的地位。請讓我們思考一下 C&I 書籍，您預期的成長水平是怎樣的？這是否真的需要全行業貸款成長回升？或者，考慮到您所聘用的銀行家的任期，是否存在大量的市佔率變動動機會？

Yes. Another point that I would just make is, in some of the portfolios, the historical practice of the company was to take very large positions. We found that in the commercial real estate book where we've managed down the size of some of the positions. We've also found in a couple of the commercial banking books, very large position. So it's a combination of like pulling those commitments down slightly why we're growing the market to give better diversity to the portfolio.

是的。我要說的另一點是，在某些投資組合中，該公司的歷史做法是持有非常大的部位。我們發現，在商業房地產帳簿上，我們已設法縮小了部分部位的規模。我們也發現，在一些商業銀行帳簿上，持有的部位非常大。因此，這就像稍微降低這些承諾一樣，我們要擴大市場，以便為投資組合提供更多樣化。

But I would say, first of all, by hiring highly experienced people in the market generally and they have long-term relationship, we're getting lots of opportunities that are independent of true loan growth. If a company is $100 million and they want to go to 130 on their credit facilities and the two or three other banks are tapped out at their levels. We have tremendous opportunity to come in and pick that piece up and then demand non-interest income to support the lending. So that's where I think you're going to see a lot of our really accelerated growth is we just become a new entrant.

但我想說，首先，透過僱用市場上經驗豐富的人才並且與他們建立長期關係，我們獲得了許多獨立於實際貸款成長的機會。如果一家公司的資產為 1 億美元，他們希望將其信貸額度提高到 1.3 億美元，而其他兩三家銀行的信貸額度已經用盡。我們有巨大的機會進入並抓住這個機會，然後要求非利息收入來支持貸款。所以我認為，當我們剛剛成為行業新進者時，你們將會看到我們真正加速的成長。

And obviously, we've hired people who have long track records in markets who know other people in the marketplace. So we're a welcome addition to those multibank groups. And clearly, what our whole focus is to be a relationship bank. So we will not enter relationships where we do not have the opportunity for non-interest income. And those can range we have proficient product sets and interest rate swaps and treasury management depository 401(k) lots of non-interest opportunities for us that we see as the opportunity to be able to get an overall return on the relationship for the bank.

顯然，我們聘請了在市場上擁有長期經驗並了解市場上其他人的人員。因此，我們是這些多銀行集團中受歡迎的新成員。顯然，我們的重點是成為一家關係銀行。因此，我們不會建立沒有機會獲得非利息收入的關係。這些範圍包括我們熟練的產品組合和利率互換以及資金管理存款 401（k），對我們來說有很多非利息機會，我們認為這些機會能夠為銀行帶來關係的整體回報。

And Ebrahim, it's Lee. Just to add to what Joseph said, and he mentioned in his prepared remarks. So if you look at the bankers, the C&I bankers that we've hired 43 of the 65 started in Q4. So they're relatively new. And these aren't just producers, their underwriters and credit specialists. But we originated $572 million of new commitments in the fourth quarter, 18 new relationships.

易卜拉欣，就是李。只是想補充約瑟夫所說以及他在準備好的發言中提到的內容。因此，如果你看看銀行家，我們僱用的 65 名 C&I 銀行家中有 43 名是在第四季度開始上任的。所以它們相對較新。這些人不僅是生產商，還有他們的承銷商和信貸專家。但我們在第四季獲得了 5.72 億美元的新承諾，建立了 18 個新關係。

And we're going into '25 with a pipeline of $460 million. So this is coming from a team that is very new. And as they get their feet under the table and we further grow and supplement that. We -- for all the reasons Joseph said, we feel very bullish about what we can do from a C&I point of view.

進入25年，我們的投資管道總額將達到 4.6 億美元。這是來自一個非常新的團隊。當他們站穩腳跟時，我們就會進一步成長並補充這一點。我們 — — 出於約瑟夫所說的所有原因，我們對從 C&I 角度所能做的事情感到非常樂觀。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

With all the balance sheet actions, I'm interested in the comment on just how you're viewing overall rate sensitivity. Obviously, your margin has some pretty big improvement because of the refinancing of the debt and the deposits. But maybe an ideal or a less ideal comment for where the rate curve would be -- and what's assuming your guide?

透過所有的資產負債表行動，我對您如何看待整體利率敏感度的評論很感興趣。顯然，由於債務和存款的再融資，您的利潤率有了很大的提高。但對於利率曲線的位置，也許有一個理想或不太理想的評論——以及您的指導假設是什麼？

Yes, sure. So what's assuming we did this, call it, using the November guide. So there were three rate cuts assumed in '25. Obviously, now it's looking like -- but as we've done our analysis, we are neutral to ever so slightly asset sensitive. And so we don't think that it's going to have an impact on what we're projecting for the earnings in the guidance that we've provided.

是的，當然。那麼，假設我們這樣做了，那就使用 11 月的指南吧。因此預計 25 年會有三次降息。顯然，現在看起來像是——但正如我們所做的分析，我們對略微敏感的資產持中立態度。因此，我們認為這不會對我們所提供的獲利預測產生影響。

Okay. And I guess my follow-up would be -- any thoughts on share count? I know there's the warrants and the conversions. Anything else left to convert? And also, if you have the accretable yield number that's in your outlook in the fourth quarter.

好的。我想我的後續問題是──對於股份數量有什麼想法？我知道有認股權證和轉換證。還有什麼需要轉換嗎？此外，如果您有第四季度預期中的累積收益率數字。

I'll get you the accretive yield outlook. I don't have that. But in terms of the guidance, just so you're aware, as you're looking at this model, we assumed that the warrants fully convert in Q4 of 2025. And so that will take the share count up from the $415 million to about $480 million.

我會給你提供增值收益的前景。我沒有那個。但就指導而言，請注意，當您查看該模型時，我們假設認股權證將在 2025 年第四季度完全轉換。這樣一來，股份總數將從 4.15 億美元上升至約 4.8 億美元。

Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

花旗銀行的本‧格林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。

So I think essentially, if rates -- if you're assuming kind of a 2, three cuts here. If you look over the next six months, it feels like funding cost reduction is the bigger driver and then, call it, 6 to 18 months you have back book or fixed asset repricing being a big driver. I mean, obviously, that's not just -- those are the kind of levers pulling more severity. Is that a fair way to think about the next 24 months or so.

因此我認為，從本質上講，如果利率——如果你假設這裡有2到3次降息。如果你展望未來六個月，你會發現融資成本的降低是更大的驅動力，而後，6 到 18 個月內，帳面或固定資產重新定價將成為更大的驅動力。我的意思是，顯然，這不僅僅是——這些是拉動更嚴峻形勢的槓桿。這是思考未來 24 個月左右的合理方式嗎？

You are completely right. And as we mentioned, that was driving some of the deleveraging. We are thinking about reducing brokered CDs and other $1 billion in the first quarter, and there's going to be another $1 billion of escrow runoff. And then the other thing that I would say is in the first quarter, we have about $5 billion of retail CDs repricing. And those CDs that are maturing in the first quarter they have a WACC of about 5.29%. So they're automatically going to reprice into lower-cost CDs. And we've done a really nice job of retaining the CDs as they mature.

你完全正確。正如我們所提到的，這推動了部分去槓桿化。我們正在考慮在第一季減少經紀存單和其他 10 億美元，而且還會有另外 10 億美元的託管資金流失。我想說的另一件事是，在第一季度，我們有大約 50 億美元的零售 CD 重新定價。第一季到期的 CD 的加權平均資本成本 (WACC) 約為 5.29%。因此他們會自動將 CD 重新定價為低成本版本。我們在 CD 成熟後的保留工作做得非常出色。

What I would say the team has accomplished is CDs that are maturing, we've been retaining 75% to 80%. And then the 20% to 25% that we haven't been retaining, we've been bringing the equivalent in new customers. So our CD balances have remained pretty flat. But your thesis is the right way to think about it for all those reasons.

我想說的是，團隊所取得的成就是，我們已經保留了 75% 到 80% 的成熟 CD。對於我們未能保留的 20% 至 25% 的客戶，我們會引入等量的新客戶。因此我們的 CD 餘額保持相當穩定。但基於所有這些原因，你的論點是正確的思考方式。

Got you. Okay. And the way you said -- sorry, in the actual press release, you had a pretty substantial linked quarter increase in 30- to 90-day delinquent. And I think in your prepared remarks, you said $500-plus million have since paid off before the end of the year. I just want to double trait was the same cohort of loans would you be expecting more early delinquency payoffs this quarter? Or how should we think about the next two to three quarters with that kind of delinquency --

明白了。好的。而且您說的是 - 抱歉，在實際的新聞稿中，您有一個相關季度的 30 至 90 天拖欠率大幅增加的情況。我想您在準備好的發言中說過，今年年底前我們已經獲得了 5 億多美元的回報。我只是想問一下，如果是同一批貸款，您是否會預期本季會有更多的提前拖欠還款？或者我們應該如何看待未來兩到三個季度的這種拖欠情況--

Yes. So $541 million paid subsequent to the year-end. So -- and a lot of that was one borrower and so I would like to think that we will not see going forward, but you never know. And we're just going to have to manage that, but it's sort of concentrated in one borrower. And as I say, $541 million or 56% as concurrent subsequent to the 12/31 year-end.

是的。因此，年底之後支付了 5.41 億美元。所以 — — 其中很多都是一個借款人，所以我想我們不會看到這種情況發生，但你永遠不知道。我們必須管理這一點，但它集中在一個借款人身上。正如我所說，12 月 31 日年末之後的並發金額為 5.41 億美元，即 56%。

So if you remember, Ben, in the second quarter, that same borrower slipped past on the -- as well and then brought the loan current. And so we have the same kind of anomaly not ideal not -- we're not happy about it, but it's an unfortunate answer.

所以，本，如果你還記得的話，在第二季度，同一位借款人也錯過了貸款，然後將貸款帶回了當前狀態。所以我們遇到了同樣的異常，不是理想的——我們對此並不滿意，但這是一個不幸的答案。

Got you. Okay. So it seems clearly --

明白了。好的。因此顯然--

Just for clarity, that loan, we don't expect to pay off or those loans we don't expect to pay off. That's a relationship. It just bounces into the past due and then comes current.

需要明確的是，我們不期望償還那筆貸款，或那些我們不期望償還的貸款。這是一種關係。它只是反彈到過去然後又回到當前。

Got you. Any color how many properties that just out of curiosity, if you're willing to give that.

明白了。任何顏色有多少種屬性，只是出於好奇，如果你願意的話。

We can get that to you. I'd be guessing it's more than 20.

我們可以把它給你。我猜應該超過 20。

Got you. Okay. I appreciate it. I'll follow up after post the call.

明白了。好的。我很感激。我會在通話結束後跟進。

Bernard Von Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Bernard Von Gizycki。

Just on the updated forecast, a few changes from last quarter. I know the '25 expenses were lowered by $100 million. In general, there's a reduction in net interest income you noted during the smaller balance sheet and the increase in fee income. Could you just provide some color on just what the lower '25 expenses are coming from and what's driving the higher fee income than previously modeled?

剛剛更新的預測與上一季相比有一些變化。我知道 25 年的開支降低了 1 億美元。總體而言，在資產負債表縮小期間，您注意到淨利息收入減少，而費用收入增加。您能否詳細說明較低的 25 項費用來自何處，以及是什麼推動了費用收入高於先前的模型？

Yes. The -- so the non-interest expense reduction is everything that I mentioned in the prepared remarks. So -- we're doing a lot from a cost optimization point of view, and it's tied to compensation and benefits, real estate consolidation and optimization, reducing vendor costs and then improving processes. And so that's having a big impact.

是的。所以—非利息支出的減少就是我在準備好的評論中提到的一切。因此，從成本優化的角度來看，我們做了很多工作，這些工作與薪資和福利、房地產整合和優化、降低供應商成本以及改善流程相關。所以這會產生很大的影響。

And then the deleveraging that we did had a significant impact on our FDIC expenses that are down $24 million quarter over quarter, and that obviously carries through into 2025 as well. So that was part of what we factored into the deleveraging. And so that's what's driving the reduced expenses in 2025 versus what you saw in October.

我們實施的去槓桿措施對 FDIC 支出產生了重大影響，支出較上月下降了 2,400 萬美元，而這種影響顯然也會延續到 2025 年。這是我們去槓桿考慮的部分因素。因此，與 10 月的情況相比，這就是 2025 年支出減少的原因。

The fee income is up only versus slightly in 2025. And it's sort of driven by several categories. I think we feel we can do better from a mortgage fee income, gain on sale point of view -- deposit fees as we continue to grow core deposits I think we can do more from a treasury management fee point of view. And I think there's some fees in certain areas of the bank that we can do a better job of collecting that we've probably been a little generous historically at waving. And that's as a combination, what's driving the improvement in fees in 2025.

與 2025 年相比，費用收入僅略有增加。它是由幾個類別驅動的。我認為，從抵押貸款費用收入、銷售收益的角度來看，我們可以做得更好——隨著我們核心存款的不斷增長，我認為從資金管理費的角度來看，我們可以做得更多。我認為，我們可以更好地收取銀行某些領域的一些費用，而從歷史上看，我們在免除這些費用方面可能有些慷慨。這些因素綜合起來將成為 2025 年費用改善的推動因素。

As we move forward into '26 and '27, you've seen a bigger increase in fees, and that really will be driven by more fees coming from treasury management. I think as we do more deals from a C&I point of view and with leading deals, you'll see us get the agent fees and then again, I think we feel we can do more from a mortgage gain on sale point of view and a deposit fee point of view as well.

隨著我們進入26年和27年，您會看到費用大幅增加，而這實際上是由資金管理費用的增加所推動的。我認為，隨著我們從 C&I 的角度做更多的交易並取得領先的交易，您會看到我們獲得代理費，而且我認為我們可以從抵押貸款銷售收益的角度和存款費的角度做得更多。

And Bernard, the other point I would make is the overall staffing in the company has gone from roughly 9,000 down to 6,000 people, which includes roughly 1,100 out of the mortgage. But as we shared with you, we've really taken a close look at the cost structure within the company. and really from top to bottom and really looked at taking the cost out of the organization down to the core mission.

伯納德，我想說的另一點是，公司總員工人數從大約 9,000 人減少到了 6,000 人，其中包括大約 1,100 名抵押貸款人員。但正如我們與您分享的那樣，我們確實仔細研究了公司內部的成本結構。並且真正從上到下考慮如何將成本從組織中剝離出來，只專注於核心任務。

So -- and then on the fee income side, clearly, the C&I business is really where you can get lead lots of arrangements, you get the treasury management. We just won yesterday a lead left relationship where we're going to be the syndicate bank.

所以 — 在費用收入方面，顯然，C&I 業務實際上是您可以獲得很多安排的地方，您可以獲得財務管理。我們昨天剛贏得了領先的左翼關係，我們將成為辛迪加銀行。

And I think most people realize that really Rich Raffetto, he's been in that business for many, many years. That's where I grew up in the banking business. So that has a real power booster, so to speak, as you get into that space and use your balance sheet to be able to be the lead left is where you get substantial amounts of the non-interest income and then the syndication fees. We expect to grow that business significantly.

我想大多數人都意識到 Rich Raffetto 確實從事這個行業很多年了。我就是在那裡從事銀行業長大的。可以說，這具有真正的動力助推器，當您進入該領域並使用您的資產負債表能夠處於領先地位時，您就可以獲得大量的非利息收入，然後是銀團費用。我們預計該業務將大幅成長。

Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up on the commercial bank effort. I know it was previously kind of mentioned on the call, but Joseph, you mentioned the addition of the 30 hires in 3Q and '24 and 4Q and looking to add another 100 commercial bankers in '25. Obviously, the recent hire is already bringing in production and building up the pipeline. You noted the recent hires have been a mixture of producers and underwriters.

好的。偉大的。然後只是對商業銀行的努力進行跟進。我知道之前在電話會議上提到過，但約瑟夫，你提到在第三季、24 年和第四季新增了 30 名員工，並希望在 25 年再新增 100 名商業銀行家。顯然，最近的招聘已經帶來了生產並建立了管道。您注意到最近聘用的人員都是製片人和承銷商的混合體。

So I'm just wondering, can you elaborate on expectations on just the ramp up on production efforts does it generally take 12 to 18 months from time of you hire, on average, given the mix of seasoned and mid senior bankers. Just any color you can provide here just so we understand, given the mix of seniority and composition of the hires?

所以我只是想知道，您能否詳細說明對提高生產力度的預期，考慮到經驗豐富和中級銀行家的組合，從您僱用開始通常平均需要 12 到 18 個月的時間嗎？考慮到僱員的資歷和組成情況，您可以在這裡提供任何顏色以便我們理解嗎？

Yes. Our model has expectations of closing -- starting to close transactions 90 days after their arrival. You may have that expectation, wear with junior people, but these are highly experienced senior people. So they are able to step back into relationships that they had. So we have high expectations for quick production by hiring the seasoned people.

是的。我們的模型有結束預期——交易到達後 90 天開始結束。您可能對初級員工抱有這樣的期望，但他們都是經驗豐富的高階員工。因此他們能夠重新恢復以前的關係。因此，我們對透過僱用經驗豐富的人員來快速生產抱有很高的期望。

And just for the record, most of these people, we have worked with at one time or another. So Rich has been in this business for 35 years. I've been in this business for 35 years. People know us. They know our reputation and our success and similar to OneWest Bank, if you recall, when we went to OneWest Bank, we did not have any C&I portfolio. We added a substantial amount of bankers to that company as well and significantly grew in a short period of time in the C&I business.

僅供參考，我們曾經與這些人中的大多數合作過。Rich 已經從事這個行業 35 年了。我從事這個行業已經35年了。人們認識我們。他們知道我們的聲譽和成功，與 OneWest Bank 類似，如果你還記得的話，當我們去 OneWest Bank 時，我們沒有任何 C&I 投資組合。我們還為該公司增加了大量銀行家，並在短時間內在 C&I 業務方面取得了顯著增長。

So it's a little bit of a replay here -- now we're ahead of the game in some regards because when we got to OneWest Bank, we didn't even have a boarding system for commercial loans nor cash management nor interest rate derivatives. Here, we have the platforms of those. We may want to enhance some of the but those products are here that we can launch off.

所以這有點像重演——現在我們在某些​​方面處於領先地位，因為當我們成立 OneWest Bank 時，我們甚至沒有商業貸款登記系統、現金管理或利率衍生品。這裡，我們有這些平台。我們可能想要增強其中的一些，但這些產品已經準備好了，我們可以推出了。

Steve Moss, Raymond James.

史蒂夫莫斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Maybe just starting on the NII guide here. Just kind of curious, what kind of deposit beta are you guys assuming? And then also curious where you expect non-interest-bearing deposits to stabilize.

也許只是從這裡的 NII 指南開始。只是有點好奇，你們假設什麼樣的存款測試版？而且我很好奇您預計無息存款會穩定在哪裡。

Yes. So from a beta point of view, and I mentioned this in my prepared remarks. So if you look at the 100 basis point cut in 2024, our beta was 46%. Now what I would tell you, Steve, is we lagged with the September cut deliberately given some of the timing and sort of the situation the bank was in at that time.

是的。因此從測試版本的角度來看，我在準備好的發言中提到了這一點。因此，如果您看一下 2024 年 100 個基點的降息，我們的貝塔係數為 46%。史蒂夫，我現在要告訴你的是，考慮到當時銀行所處的時機和情況，我們故意在 9 月降息時落後於預期。

But as we moved through November and December -- in November, our beta is 66% and -- and in December, it's 58%. And so we are operating within or above our targeted beta range of to 55% to 60%. That's how we think about it and where we want to be for the non-interest after the interest-bearing deposits.

但隨著我們進入 11 月和 12 月，11 月我們的貝塔值為 66%，而 12 月為 58%。因此，我們的營運處於 55％ 至 60％ 的目標 beta 範圍內或以上。這就是我們的想法，也是我們希望在有利息的存款之後實現無利息的目標。

Okay. And then in terms of just in non-interest-bearing, just kind of curious how we think about where those balances could stabilize in 2025.

好的。然後就非生息而言，我只是好奇我們如何看待這些餘額在 2025 年能夠穩定下來。

I think the non-interest-bearing, they should probably stay fairly consistent with where they are. Now what I would tell you about the non-interest-bearing -- there's a little bit of an anomaly because I mentioned that the -- there was about $4 billion of subservice escrow deposits that were categorized as non-interest bearing. And the reason for that is they were -- we were paying -- to the subservicing customers that we were subservicing the loans for -- but -- and this is a quirk of gap.

我認為，對於不計利息的，它們可能應該保持與當前水準相當一致。現在我要告訴你們關於無息存款——這裡有一點異常，因為我提到過——大約有 40 億美元的子服務託管存款被歸類為無息存款。原因在於，我們正在向那些為我們提供貸款服務的客戶支付款項，但是，這是一個差距問題。

That interest expense was deducted from the fees that we were getting from subservicing the loans. So we've actually showed up in the non-interest income section of the P&L. It did not show up, as you might expect with deposits in the interest income section. And so the runoff that you've seen is really related to those deposits. And I would expect those deposits to remain relatively constant from where we are now.

該利息支出已從我們收取的貸款分期服務費用中扣除。因此我們實際上已經出現在損益表的非利息收入部分。它並沒有出現，正如你所預料的利息收入部分的存款一樣。所以您所看到的徑流實際上與這些沉積物有關。我預計這些存款將保持相對穩定。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then just on credit here. Just kind of curious where did special mention substandard loans end up for the quarter. And just as you guys mentioned on the upcoming maturities here in '25, '26 and '27. Curious if any one of those vintages is more aggressively underwritten versus the others? Or are they consistent across the board?

好的。我很感激。然後就在這裡賒帳。只是有點好奇本季特別提及的次級貸款最終結果如何。正如你們所提到的 25、26 和 27 年即將到期的債券。好奇其中是否有一種年份的葡萄酒比其他年份的葡萄酒承保更積極嗎？或者說它們在各方面都是一致的？

The -- so the substandard loans we ended up around $11 billion. The special mention, let us see if we can -- I don't have that number right at hand, but we will -- let us get you that special mention number, Steve but the substandard were right around $11 billion. The special mention, the substandard, I should say, yes.

因此，我們的次級貸款最終約為 110 億美元。特別提及的，讓我們看看是否可以——我手頭上沒有這個數字，但我們會——讓我們給你那個特別提及的數字，史蒂夫，但次級金額大約為 110 億美元。特別提名，不達標，我應該說，是的。

My comment on the underwriting is, as a general rule, these loans were underwritten within market and market being a [125 to 130] debt service coverage at the time and 75% kind of loan-to-value. And really what's this over is the dramatic rise in interest rates. A lot of these loans are resetting from 3.5% to 6.5% or 7%.

我對承保的評論是，一般來說，這些貸款是在市場範圍內承保的，市場當時的債務償還覆蓋率為 [125 到 130]，貸款價值比為 75%。而真正的原因是利率的急遽上升。許多貸款的利率從 3.5% 調整為 6.5% 或 7%。

And then narrowing into the rent regulated, you just have some of the legislative actions, which is restricting growth in -- so as I look at it, I wouldn't like point to '18 or '19 or '20 being significantly different in the underwriting and the impact. But we can do some work on that and get back to you specifically on default rates. But if you really think about it, it's really the doubling of interest rates that the borrower is paying on the debt.

然後縮小到租金管制，你只採取了一些立法行動，這些行動正在限製成長 - 因此在我看來，我不想指出'18年或'19年或'20年在承保和影響方面有顯著不同。但我們可以對此進行一些工作，並具體就違約率向您報告。但如果你認真思考一下，這其實是藉款人支付的債務利率翻倍了。

Okay. Great. Really appreciate all that color, Joseph and Lee.

好的。偉大的。真的很欣賞這些色彩，約瑟夫和李。

Anthony Elian, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安東尼·埃利安 (Anthony Elian)。

Lee's, I had a follow-up on your updated forecast. For 2025 provision expense, your outlook was unchanged, but 4Q provision came in a little bit lower than forecast. Although I see that you slightly lowered your '26 provision outlook. Could you just talk about that reduction for 2026 provision? And why not lower 2025?

Lee，我對您更新的預測進行了跟進。對於 2025 年的撥備費用，您的展望保持不變，但第四季的撥備費用略低於預測。儘管我發現你略微降低了 26 年的撥備前景。能談談 2026 年規定的削減情況嗎？那為什麼不把這個數字降低到 2025 年呢？

Yes. Look, I think we want to be sort of conservative in the way we are thinking about things. And -- that's why I think we felt we'll hold provision we're reducing 25%. And then you start to see it come down in '26 and '27. But it was really -- we wanted to sort of be more on the conservative side as we think about credit, and that's really what's driving the provision number.

是的。看，我認為我們在思考問題的方式上應該採取某種保守的態度。這就是為什麼我認為我們會維持原來的 25% 的減幅。然後你會看到它在 26 年和 27 年下降。但事實上──我們在考慮信貸時想更偏向保守，而這才是推動撥備數字的真正因素。

And then my follow-up on slide 15 on the office side. You know that you completed your loan review for office and that the office reserve ratio increased about 100 basis points quarter over quarter. But if I recall, in the third quarter, you took down your office reserve ratio, I think, about 60 basis points. Now you've taken it back up. So can you just talk about the dynamics there and what drove the increase in the office reserve sequentially?

然後我對第 15 張幻燈片中的辦公室方面進行了跟進。您知道您已完成辦公室貸款審查，辦公室準備金率比上季增加了約 100 個基點。但如果我沒記錯的話，在第三季度，你們下調了辦公室準備金率，我記得大約是 60 個基點。現在你又把它拿回來了。那麼，您能否談談那裡的動態以及推動辦公室儲備連續增加的因素？

So as we said, we were going through a process where we were ordering appraisals -- so as appraisals come in, you obviously look at the charge-off and the risk associated with those. So it's a bit of a fluid situation as we're updating -- as Lee also indicated, we sold our largest borrower in that particular space, and we had moved that over to held for sale, but executed on that during the fourth quarter.

正如我們所說的，我們正在經歷一個訂購評估的過程 - 因此，當評估結果出來時，您顯然會查看與之相關的沖銷和風險。因此，在我們更新時，情況有點不穩定——正如李所指出的，我們出售了該特定領域最大的借款人，並且我們已將其轉移到持有待售狀態，但在第四季度執行了該操作。

And I think that's the other thing you've got to bear -- so as we've mentioned, we've moved various loans. We sold loans we'll move them to available for sale. And so you do have some of that dynamic playing out as well. I think one thing I would say though, and again, I'd reemphasize when we look -- even though there's been a slight reduction in the reserve the coverage ratio on CRE office and multifamily rent-regulated increased quarter over quarter. And so the perceived riskier assets, we did increase the coverage ratio on those classes.

我認為這是你必須承受的另一件事——正如我們所提到的，我們已經轉移了各種貸款。我們已售出貸款，我們會將其移至可供出售狀態。所以你也會看到一些動態的發揮。不過，我想說的是，我想再次強調，儘管準備金略有減少，但 CRE 辦公室和多戶型租金管制的覆蓋率卻逐季增加。因此，對於可察覺風險較高的資產，我們確實提高了這些類別的覆蓋率。

Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Leo just kind of answered my question, I think. But can you talk a little bit more about the general process to determine reserve adequacy? I'm not questioning the level, but I'm just curious, the overall reserve level came down, and I'm just thinking is that a message that the worst is over or not?

我想，Leo 剛剛回答了我的問題。但能否再詳細談談確定儲備充足性的一般流程呢？我並不是質疑水平，但我只是好奇，整體儲備水平下降了，我只是在想，這是否表明最糟糕的時期已經過去了？

We obviously go through a very, very detailed process. Obviously, there's models. We look at it quantitatively, -- we break it down by asset class, by loan type. So there's a very, very detailed process and modeling that goes into it. I think -- what I would say, as you think about the reduction, the health investment portfolio has reduced $3.8 billion in the quarter. We took $223 million of charge-offs in Q4, and we've taken $900 million of charge-offs in the full year.

我們顯然經歷了一個非常非常詳細的過程。顯然，有模型。我們從量化的角度來看待它——我們根據資產類別和貸款類型進行細分。所以這是一個非常非常詳細的過程和建模。我想說的是，當你想到減少的時候，健康投資組合在本季減少了 38 億美元。我們在第四季的沖銷金額為 2.23 億美元，全年的沖銷金額已達 9 億美元。

So if you add -- if you look at the reserve and you add that $900 million of charge-offs, as sort of a lot of protection that we've built. And then as I said, even though there's an overall decline, the coverage ratio on the riskier or perceived riskier asset classes increased the rent regulated and CRE office.

因此，如果你添加——如果你看一下儲備金，並且添加了 9 億美元的沖銷額，那麼這就是我們建立的大量保護措施。正如我所說的，儘管總體呈下降趨勢，但對風險較高或被認為風險較高的資產類別的覆蓋率卻增加了受監管的租金和 CRE 辦公室。

And the final other thing that I would just mention is we're getting more and more appraisals coming back. And those appraisals are not coming back as punity as we maybe thought. And so it's a combination of all of those factors. It's such a complicated and sophisticated model. You can't point to sort of one thing only. But when you look at all of those things that I just described together, that's really what's driving it.

我最後要說的是，我們收到了越來越多的評估。而這些評估並不像我們想像的那樣是懲罰。所以這是所有這些因素的結合。這是一個非常複雜且精密的模型。你不能只指出一件事。但當你把我剛才描述的所有這些事情放在一起看時，你會發現這才是真正的驅動因素。

Okay. That's fair enough. Just Joseph, for you. When you're talking to potential new clients, are there any concerns or questions from everything that's happened at the company over the last 12 months -- or is it a typical process? Do you have to explain anything? Or is it just more of a typical process of ongoing.

好的。這就夠公平的了。只有約瑟夫，為你。當您與潛在的新客戶交談時，您是否對公司過去 12 個月發生的一切感到擔憂或有疑問——或者這是一個典型的過程？你還需要解釋什麼嗎？或者它只是一個持續進行的典型過程。

It kind of breaks down existing clients who have lived , especially if you're a signature bank customer and you kind of went through the Signature Bank event and then disruptions we had in March, there -- they want to have a much more technical discussion around the bank's capital and liquidity and Lee and I. In addition to hosting this call, we also now have a customer call that we hold for all the customers of the private and C&I bank -- that -- so we've kind of -- starting in quarter one really have done a lot about reach where they can ask us questions and we have dialogue with the customer.

它有點打破了現有的客戶，特別是如果你是一個簽名銀行的客戶，你經歷了簽名銀行事件以及我們在 3 月份遇到的混亂，他們希望就銀行的資本和流動性進行更技術性的討論，李和我。

On the new customers, not so much. The -- again, I go back to, it's a little bit about reputational. But when we can show the amount of liquidity on the balance sheet and the capital levels where our focus is, we get a lot less discussions about the bank in the marketplace.

但對於新客戶來說，情況並非如此。我再說一遍，這有點關乎聲譽。但當我們可以在資產負債表上顯示流動性數量和我們關注的資本水準時，市場上關於銀行的討論就會少很多。

Matthew Breese, Stephens.

馬修布里斯，史蒂芬斯。

Lee, you mentioned a couple of times on this call the excess cash position on the balance sheet. Where do you envision working that down to either dollar-wise or a percentage of assets by year-end '25? And is that a good level to run within '26 and beyond?

李，您在這次電話會議中幾次提到了資產負債表上的過剩現金狀況。您預計到 2025 年底，這一數字將以美元或資產百分比的形式下降到多少？這是在 26 年及以後運行的良好水平嗎？

Yes. I think we -- the way I would think about it is because, obviously, cash is dynamic. I think I've sort of giving you some of the guidance previously. So I think we believe we'll pay down another $3 billion of growth of deposits during the year.

是的。我認為我們──我這樣思考是因為，顯然，現金是動態的。我想我之前已經給過你一些指導了。因此，我認為我們相信今年我們將再償還 30 億美元的存款成長。

We're going to have $1 billion of escrows that are coming out this quarter. Now we do feel that we can grow our core deposits -- so I mean, look, I think the cash position, net-net, it probably comes down another $3 billion or $4 billion from where we are today. But again, that's what we're projecting, and we're going to -- we'll manage that dynamically depending on what we're seeing in the market. But -- that's how I would think about it.

本季我們將有 10 億美元的託管資金流出。現在我們確實覺得我們可以增加核心存款——所以我的意思是，看，我認為現金狀況，淨額，可能比我們現在的水平再下降 30 億美元或 40 億美元。但再說一次，這就是我們的預測，我們將根據市場狀況動態地進行管理。但是——我就是這麼想的。

And the other sort of piece to the jigsaw that I gave to everybody was, look, the balance sheet is probably going to come down another $2 billion. And so you're going to have some additional asset runoff as well, and we'll use that cash appropriately. But I think if you sort of imagine a $3 billion, $4 billion reduction. That would be the right way to think about it. And some of that will be moved into securities. We -- like I said, we do think that we'll grow our securities portfolio as well.

我給大家的另一塊拼圖是，你看，資產負債表可能還會再下降 20 億美元。所以你也會有一些額外的資產流失，我們會適當地使用這些現金。但我想如果你想像一下減少 30 億美元、40 億美元。這才是正確的思考方式。其中一部分將轉入證券。正如我所說，我們確實認為我們也將擴大我們的證券投資組合。

Great. And then my second one was with the commercial real estate multifamily book fully reviewed, should we read into anything as it relates to where we are in terms of non-accrual levels? Have we peaked or near peak -- and could you give us some sense for charge-off expectations in '25? Certainly 2024 elevated. Can we start to see that decline from here?

偉大的。然後，我的第二個問題是，在對商業房地產多戶型書籍進行全面審查之後，我們是否應該閱讀任何與非應計水平相關的內容？我們已經達到頂峰或接近頂峰了嗎？2024 年一定會上升。我們能從現在開始看到這種下降嗎？

So on the substandard non-accrual in the fourth quarter, we ended roughly substandard at about $8.7 billion and the non-accruals at $2.5 billion. Yes. And it's our expectations that the non-accruals will point in time at the end of the year, be down 30% and that the substandard will be down 10%. So we do see that those numbers will decline is what our current forecast is. And then as far as charge-offs, you have those over, I think it's the charge-offs for 2025.

因此，就第四季的不合格未提列項目而言，我們最終的不合格金額約為 87 億美元，不合格金額為 25 億美元。是的。我們預計，到年底，不提項目將下降 30％，次級項目將下降 10％。因此我們確實看到這些數字將會下降，這是我們目前的預測。至於沖銷，您已經將這些沖銷了，我認為這是 2025 年的沖銷。

It's approximately similar to what we've got in provision, it's going to be around $250 million. Great.

這與我們現有的撥備金額大致相同，約為 2.5 億美元。偉大的。

If I could sneak in one more. As the category for bank and Joseph, if you're prior standing in terms of the regulator and head of the OCC, could you give us some sense under the new administration for your expectations for potential changes in how Category 4 banks are regulated and if that's kind of embedded in any of the guidance items.

如果我可以再偷偷溜進去一次。作為銀行類別，約瑟夫，如果您之前擔任監管機構和美國貨幣監理署署長，您能否告訴我們，在新政府的領導下，您對第四類銀行監管方式可能發生的變化的預期，以及這是否已嵌入任何指導項目中。

Well, first of all, there are current criteria for enhanced standards for a Category 4 bank. I think there's been a lot of dialogue $100 billion the right number is $250 million. And I think that will have to be determined based on who the new controller is. But our really goal is that we will remain as a category for a bank, and we're building the right infrastructure and credit processes and risk governance framework to be able to be a category for a bank because as we start to become profitable and grow, we want to be attuned to that.

首先，目前對於四類銀行有加強標準。我認為已經進行了很多討論，1000 億美元，正確的數字是 2.5 億美元。我認為這必須根據新的控制者是誰來確定。但我們真正的目標是，我們仍將作為一家銀行，並且我們正在建立正確的基礎設施和信貸流程以及風險管理框架，以便能夠成為一家銀行，因為當我們開始盈利和成長時，我們希望與之保持一致。

So we don't have any growth restrictions. We don't have any growth restrictions today. But we just think it's better. We brought in enormous talent from the OCC to help us do that. And so we're kind of mindset on building our risk governance framework to be able to be a category for a bank, and we're well on our way to accomplishing that goal.

因此我們沒有任何成長限制。我們今天沒有任何成長限制。但我們只是認為這樣更好。我們從 OCC 引進了大量人才來幫助我們實現這一目標。因此，我們致力於建立我們的風險管理框架，以便能夠成為銀行的一個類別，而且我們正在順利實現這一目標。

And I will now turn the call back over to Joseph Otting for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給約瑟夫·奧廷，請他作結束語。

Okay. Great. Thank you very much for all the questions. In a short period of time, it's amazing how quick you guys get to the bottom line and understand these numbers. And I think you were spot-on on kind of the observations. We want to thank you again for taking the time for joining us and your interest in Flagstar.

好的。偉大的。非常感謝您提出的所有問題。在這麼短的時間內，你們就能如此迅速地了解底線並理解這些數字，真是令人驚嘆。我認為您的觀察非常正確。我們再次感謝您抽出時間加入我們並關注 Flagstar。

I look forward to speaking and meeting with many of you in the weeks to come. Lee and I are available through Sal if you want to arrange one-on-one kind of calls and meetings, we're happy to do that. We're really excited about our story and the direction and the work that we've accomplished in 2024 and really look forward to kind of delivering now in 2025 for all of you, our investors, our employees and our customers.

我期待在接下來的幾週與你們中的許多人進行交談和會面。如果您想安排一對一的電話和會議，可以透過 Sal 聯繫 Lee 和我，我們很樂意為您提供協助。我們對我們的故事、方向和我們在 2024 年完成的工作感到非常興奮，並真誠地期待在 2025 年為你們所有人、我們的投資者、我們的員工和我們的客戶提供服務。

So thank you very much.

非常感謝。

That will conclude our call today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話就到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。