Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) 2014 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the first quarter Comfort Systems USA earnings conference call. My name is Dave; I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. We will conduct a question and answer session towards the end of this conference.

(Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Julie Shaeff, the Company's Chief Accounting Officer. Please proceed, ma'am.

Thanks, Dave. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Comfort Systems USA's first quarter earnings call. Our comments this morning as well as our press releases contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act 1995.

What we will say today is based on the current plans and expectations of Comfort Systems USA. Those plans and expectations involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual future activities and results of our operations to be materially different from those set forth in our comments. You can read a more detailed listing and commentary concerning our specific risk factors in our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, as well as in our press release covering these earnings.

A slide presentation will accompany the prepared remarks has been posted on the investor relations section of the Company's website found at www.comfortsystemsUSA.com. Joining me on the call today is Brian Lane, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Bill George, our Chief Financial Officer. Brian will open our remarks.

Thanks, Julie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I would like to start by thanking all of the Comfort Systems USA employees who are on the call today for their continued hard work and dedication.

I will start with an update on our results and comments about the acquisition we just closed. Bill George will then take us through the results in more detail. And finally, I will discuss backlog and the outlook for the rest of the year.

During the first quarter of 2014, we had revenue of $321 million, net earnings of $0.01 per share. The first quarter is always our weakest quarter of the year. This year we had a particularly bad winter at many of our locations, and that wintry weather led to delays in productivity losses that affected our revenue as well as our profitability for the quarter.

The extreme cold as well as icy and snowy conditions impacted our ability to travel to and work on our construction sites in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast for a number of days during the first quarter. The effective weather on our service business was mixed, and in some cases, conditions led today's square our techs were delayed or could not work.

In addition, our SG&A increased this quarter due to our incremental investment in service and information technology. We experienced some encouraging improvement in gross profit margins this quarter. However, the additional SG&A cost more than offset that improvement. Bill will provide more details about these factors and our operating results in a few minutes.

Our backlog increased to $612 million, which represents our second sequential quarterly increase. I am very happy to announce that the acquisition of Dyna Ten was finalized yesterday. Dyna Ten has a long history of providing excellent installation and service capabilities for its customers in medical, industrial, and commercial markets in the Dallas and Fort Worth area.

We have viewed Dyna Ten as an excellent potential partner for many, many years. We began discussing a transaction with their team in 2005 and have maintained a correspondence with them since that time. We believe that Dyna Ten is the premier company in the Dallas market and we are excited to have them on board. We view Dallas Fort Worth as a key market for our future.

Dyna Ten brings excellent resources and leadership at every level, and in addition to their direct contribution, we expect that they will help us to strengthen and improve our existing operations in Texas and across all of Comfort Systems.

This quarter had its challenges, but it has also had encouraging signs and we continued to believe that our overall profitability this year will maintain the strong improvement that we experienced in 2013. We believe that over the next several quarters, demand for nonresidential construction is likely to gradually increase in a majority of our markets. And, as a result, we are optimistic about 2015 and beyond.

I will describe our outlook in more detail in a few minutes, but before I get into that, let me turn this call over to Bill to review the details of our performance.

Thanks, Brian. If you are online and have access to our slides, you're welcome to refer to slides 2 through 4 as I review our financial results. Revenues this quarter were down 1% compared to a year ago. As we reported $321 million of revenue compared to $326 million in the first quarter of 2013.

As Brian explained, in many of our geographies, severe weather suppressed revenue and operating results for this quarter. I believe that the adverse weather cost us approximately $0.03 to $0.05 in our first quarter results.

Gross profit was 16.2% for the first quarter of 2014 and that was an improvement from the 15.8% for the first quarter of 2013. Weather affected our gross profit, and during the quarter we also wrote down a large project in our Southern California operation that cost us approximately $0.02 this quarter.

Despite these challenges, we were pleased to see improvement in our gross profit percentage as compared to the prior year. We had margin improvement at a significant number of our operating companies and we were also helped by improved development in risk management claims this current quarter.

SG&A expense was $50.4 million for the first quarter of 2014 compared to $46.5 million for the first quarter of 2013. SG&A as a percentage of revenue increased from 14.3% during the first quarter of 2013 to 15.7% during the first quarter of 2014.

As we discussed throughout 2013, we are continuing to make net incremental investments in service growth. During 2014, our strategic investment in service will peak as we will invest an incremental $3 million in training, plus an additional $1 million to $1.5 million in people and systems. At the same time, we have higher IT spending this year. The 2014 investments are weighted slightly heavier in the first half of 2014 as we prepare for our peak service season in the summer months.

Overall, this is a significant investment for our Company that will continue in future years, although at lower levels. And we believe it will generate a strong return.

Our tax rate for the quarter was 39.1%. Net income for the first quarter was $0.4 million or $0.01 per share compared to $2.5 million or [$0.07] per share for the first quarter of 2013. The first quarter is always a seasonally lower quarter for us, and the adverse impact of weather as well as that California project resulted in a near breakeven quarter for us.

As we always expect, first quarter cash flow was negative. Free cash flow for the quarter was a negative $12 million as compared to a negative $13 million in 2013. But, overall, we feel good about our operating cash flow for the balance of 2014.

As Brian mentioned in his opening remarks, we are very excited about our announcements this morning that we have closed the Dyna Ten acquisition. This company has a broad range of mechanical contracting projects -- HVAC service and controls -- and expands our geographic footprint in Texas to include the Dallas and Fort Worth areas. Dyna Ten is expected to contribute annualized revenues of approximately $70 million to $80 million at profitability levels that are generally equal to or above those experienced by other Comfort Systems operations.

In light of the required amortization expense related to intangibles and other costs associated with the transaction, the acquisition is expected to make a neutral to slightly accretive contribution to earnings per share during the first 12 to 18 months after the acquisition. But it will contribute notable revenues in EBITDA starting in the second quarter of this year.

We used funds from our existing line of credit to fund this acquisition and, as a result, we expect to have borrowings outstanding and increase in interest expense for the next several quarters. We continue to have good cash balances, ample capacity on our line and significant cushion in our financial covenants.

For 2014, we expect activity levels in our industry to remain at levels similar to the recent years, but we are optimistic that trends are improving. Our backlog is steady, remaining at solid levels in light of ongoing industry conditions. Based on our backlog and as a late cycle business, we expect that improvement in 2014 will be gradual and, at this point, we expect the 2014 profitability will be comparable to the improved levels of 2013.

That is all I have on financials, Brian.

Okay. Thanks, Bill, and congratulations on bringing Dyna Ten into the fold. Let me start with backlog and activity in various sectors and markets. Please turn to slide 5 and start with backlog.

Backlog at the end of the first quarter was $612 million, an increase of $9 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2013. This increase is largely due to our existing operation in central Texas. This backlog number does not include our new acquisition.

Pricing, while relatively stable, is still challenging over all. At this point, although underlying activity levels are solid, we do not see an increase in bookings that would support meaningful revenue increases this year. Please turn to slide 6 for a look at our end user sectors.

Our industrial and commercial sectors comprised 62% of our revenues for the first quarter of 2014 and 50% of our current backlog. The largest sector is manufacturing, representing just over a quarter of our first quarter revenue and includes projects such as industrial plants, food production facilities, and data centers. Overall, we continue to win our fair share of small to midsize projects. However, we are still not seeing larger projects in our backlog.

If you turn to slide 7, you can see our current revenue mix. Pure service, which is maintenance and repair, was strong at 18% of revenue for the first quarter of 2014. And service, repair, and retrofit again exceeded 50% of revenue. For the quarter, our service businesses provided solid returns and our maintenance base has increased by approximately 3% since year-end, after a very strong 12% increase in 2013.

Overall, we are experiencing stability and we expect to see gradually improving conditions in most of our markets. We have invested in our business throughout the recession, including our recent and unprecedented investment in our service business through training, investing in systems, and growing our service workforce and leadership.

These investments are significant for Comfort Systems, and we believe that they will benefit us for many years to come. However, they have led to higher SG&A in 2014.

Although our first quarter 2014 earnings and revenues were below the same quarter of last year, we do not believe that these results indicate a trend. We continue to believe that the overall profitability for 2014 will be similar to 2013. We are beginning to experience gradually improving business conditions in many of our markets and we are optimistic that these trends will lead to improved results in 2015 and beyond.

We are very excited to welcome our new Dallas team members to Comfort Systems USA, and we are confident that this and our many investments over the last few years in people, processes, and acquisitions have positioned us for success in 2015 and beyond.

Finally, I would like to welcome our approximately 450 new team members in Dallas and Amarillo. And I thank all of our 6700 ongoing team members for their efforts.

I will now turn it over to Dave for questions. Thank you.

(Operator Instructions) Tahira Afzal, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

This is (inaudible) on behalf of Tahira. My question is mainly pertaining to competition. Can you please comment on the competitive dynamics you are seeing on the institutional side of your business?

So institutional for us is health, education, and government. Healthcare is not strong right now. We have far fewer jobs that are ongoing right now in the healthcare sector than we typically would have.

When it comes to education, our education breaks down into two pieces: private, usually post secondary education, and K-12. We only have a few companies who do much K-12. I think they remain active in that market.

And we do have -- actually, we have booked a little bit of new work in private postsecondary. So I would not consider that a robust market, but I know of at least one interesting job that we got.

And so -- meanwhile, government -- I think, overall, government, which is not typically as big for us, it is mostly -- except for military bases, I think that that is flat for us. We have the military work going on, probably less than usual. I would say that is definitely not a source of strength.

Okay. Got it. Then, further, I have one more question. Can you talk about the further M&A activity for yourselves? And where do you see the regional end market opportunities?

Okay. So we still have active correspondence with acquisition -- potential partners for acquisitions. We have had a very good run for many, many years. We have done a lot of what we call tuck-ins. It is folding new capabilities, typically, or adjacent geographies into existing, operations.

Knock on wood, we haven't had to report a bad tuck-in to our Board in five or six years. So although we are very -- the reason we haven't is because we are very careful with those, but we still are pretty -- we are still very -- we are avid to continue to do the tuck-ins.

As far as larger deals, like Dyna Ten, those deals have a long gestation. I think we are open, but I think we'll be very, very picky at this point in the cycle.

And where do you see regional end market opportunities coming from? And are you seeing more competition there?

Are you talking a general in or just for acquisitions?

Just in general.

In general. Okay. So, just to summarize how we are looking at it geographically, up in the Northeast it has been stable. We got probably slight improvement going on at the moment. The Mid-Atlantic has improved since this time last year, significantly more opportunities we are seeing. And the Southeast as well has improved from this time last year.

Texas is probably the strongest state at this point -- very robust right now. The upper Midwest has been stable for us and we are seeing a lot of good opportunities.

The West is probably more of a mixed bag. Some cities have improved, such as Denver. Others maybe slowed down a little bit, like you see in Phoenix and Arizona. But, in general, I think across the country, we are seeing gradually, slightly improving conditions in all markets.

And [talking with fixes], are you seeing more competition coming with (inaudible) this season given their strength?

No. I think the players that we see here have been the same we have seen for a number of years. Have not seen an increase; the productive capacity is about the same.

All right. And what about other regions? How is the competition there?

I think, in general, after five or six years of this recession, we had anticipated that there would be a reduction in productive capacity. And though there has been some, it has not been material. Other companies have maintained and survived through this recession.

So the good news is, for us, now though, is residential is picking up. We are just seeing a normal number of bidders that we saw in the mid-2000s today. So we are going through a normal bidding environment, in my opinion.

Adam Thalhimer, BB&T Capital Markets.

I wanted to follow up on that last question real quick on -- with regards to pricing. Brian, you talked about a gradual improvement in demand here. Is that enough to drive some pricing improvement, do you think?

We are seeing a slight, Adam; nothing significant. Where we are seeing improvement in gross margin is mostly done on the execution front in all the work, the training, prefab, the service mix that we have added. We are seeing it more on that front than really a material improvement in pricing yet. Bill, do you have anything else?

We have got our fingers crossed. We are ready.

We are ready for it.

That is what will really matter, and people are booking up. So when they start to book up, they start to raise prices.

Okay. And we might have talked about this before, but with the maintenance of initiative, how much maintenance revenue can I add and what our maintenance margins, generally?

So, one of the most gratifying things we have seen this year and for the first quarter -- [not] last year, for the full year and this year for the first quarter of this year, is increases in our maintenance base that, frankly, they are unprecedented. Same-store increase last year of 12%; in the first quarter, 3%.

And maintenance base -- our maintenance base is up to $87 million. Maintenance base in and of itself -- it's good, steady. We only take that business if it is profitable. We are not really willing to lose it as a loss leader, but it is a very, very important source of future incremental small projects and change-outs.

And so that is why I said it is an important leading indicator and, really, it is a huge part of our service focus right now. So, even though it is not something that has instant impact, it is just probably the single most important element for getting the flywheel turning, if you are trying to improve your service offerings.

And, you know, Adam, it is probably improvement. I know Bill and myself are really excited about the improvement we are seeing in the service business already.

Okay. And then I just wanted to ask one more about -- it's a modeling question on SG&A. There is a couple of moving parts here now with the service and with the acquisition. I am just curious if this $50 million per quarter is a good run rate for the year. And then would it come down from that in 2015?

So the new acquisition will bring in its proportionate SG&A. There SG&A profile is similar to ours, so you will see that change and we will highlight that for you in coming quarters. I am not ready to quantify that.

If you were to take same-store, unless we start to do a lot better, which would push bonus accruals, that would be good news, I think -- I am hopeful that we are really and utilizing at the highest rate we will annualized for the year this quarter. We still have a lot of training on the server side in the second quarter.

There will be less of that direct cost of training in the second half of the year. We slow it down a lot during the hottest months of summer. We have less of it at the end of this year.

What we have said is that we have about $4 million in incremental service-related SG&A increase in 2014. That is over already elevated levels of service investment last year. That would go down to $2 million next year.

Our IT spend, which is a little bit high, we have migrated the enterprise on to the cloud for a lot of our basic functions over the last few months. We are in the middle of that. It is an internal project called Project Enterprise for us. We have also, obviously, like a lot of companies, had to eliminate all of our XP machines. We have taken advantage of that to try to really bring ourselves into a higher level of IT competency, which we think will benefit us.

So, once again, that is heightened this year. It is more heightened in the first half of the year than it will be in the second half of the year, but much less -- obviously, not near the magnitude of service. But yet another element that is contributing to that.

John Rogers, D. A. Davidson.

Just getting back to your comments, Brian, on the optimism or slightly more optimistic about the market outlook. If we are not seeing it in backlog yet, could you just maybe give us a little more color on what you are seeing or thinking out there? I mean, are there project proposals specifically that you are looking at?

Yes. You know, John, as we have talked about in the past, we are looking at the prospects, to me, are pretty exciting at the moment; pretty robust, to be honest. The bidding activity is good.

Probably one recently would have been a higher profile job, size wise, than I have seen in the last five years. So that is probably the source of my gradual optimism, if I could put it to you that way. But we are seeing prospects improve.

If you don't mind, I will comment on that, too. We have been rotating out of institutional and hospital work into industrial work, which has smaller average project size. So with that -- and the jobs stay in backlog for a shorter period of time for the revenues that they represent.

Industrial work moves much more quickly. We typically control the job. It is often in an open feeling, so that the same amount of backlog can actually represent more work in that particular -- that shift.

If you look at the pie chart for our end-users, there has just been massive movement into the industrial sector for us. And that is just really good work for us. There are signs of life in pharma. We are seeing some things we haven't seen in a while. So there is really good omens out there.

You know, John, you look at the manufacturing, it is about 30% of our business right now. And that is work that we have a long history of being very good at. And that is in the construction front.

But the service, we talk about the maintenance base. But the replacement business I am very optimistic about as well. A lot of this equipment is getting old. It's going to have to be changed out.

And I know you're late cycle within -- even within the construction environment. So when would you expect that we would start to see this improvement showing up in orders and backlog? Is that something we could see this year or is that more 2015 as well?

John, the way it looks right now, I would say the back end of 2015, we should see it in our numbers.

The back end of 2015?

Well, yes. So, it would age into our numbers. It should start to show up in backlog much sooner. It should benefit us in 2015, be getting to true robust underlying markets. It takes quarters to do that.

(multiple speakers)

You know, you of all people have seen it, right? You have seen the -- you have seen there is a reason why we continue to do great for a year or two after recessions start. It is just the way the money ages through.

Okay. I was just saying if some of the signposts to be looking for and quantitative evidence.

Well, backlog should start -- it should be in backlog as the year goes on. There is the competition element of backlog as well, but that is starting to get fully baked in right now.

Okay. And then, Bill, too, just to follow up, I appreciate the comments on the estimate for the weather impact in the first quarter. Do you have any guesstimate on what the revenue impact was?

You know, that is even harder. I would say -- yes, you know, I hesitate to even say. It is somewhere in the order of probably $7 million to $15 million or a little higher. It is really hard -- that is a really hard thing -- that is a really hard thing to guess.

But, you know, John, we are not big fans of using the weather as any kind of excuse, but this was significant this quarter.

Yes, I mean, we had places where we didn't have electricity in our shops for days. We had places where kids were off school for 30 days. That affects their parents. There is a lot more of their vacation time gets used, so you are still paying them.

You had places that shut down; jobs that shut down; places where the governor said stay off the road for a couple of days, so we could only send out emergency trucks. We had places where we had to -- we maintained call centers that keep important businesses like nationwide retailers open. And sometimes we have to put people up in hotels next to the call center, because we can't fail to meet that need, just because Indianapolis has a snowstorm.

There's just a lot of ways in which -- and, you know, we are very heavily located in the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, and those were areas that got whether they don't usually get. That they don't have the resources to deal with in the same way. They shut down a lot more quickly. I mean, you saw what happened in Atlanta, right? So we just had a lot of places where we were canceling visiting places because they weren't going to be there that day, if you know what I mean.

So we haven't talked about weather in a call or in a press release since the first quarter of 2005. It is not something we bring up unless we just feel like it is an element that has to be discussed.

Okay. And -- sorry, last thing, if I could -- acquisition pipeline. I know these things take time, but is there a lot of discussion activity going on?

You know, this Company is the proof these things take time, since we started with these guys in 2005 and, frankly, waited for them to some extent. We believe they are the best company in Dallas. We felt like we had to just be a premier.

Dallas was a market we needed to be premier in. So we had other companies that we could have done something with that would have ultimately precluded what we were able to do with great acquisition. It is a long and careful thing when we buy a bigger company.

But having said that, we are in good conversations in some geographies where we think we can get some synergies. I don't see standalones in the next quarter or two that are close enough to coming to fruition. But we are still very active. If anything, we are putting more resources, at least, into making sure we have got our arms around what is out there. So I don't know. It's a long answer.

Joe Mondillo, Sidoti & Company.

I apologize if I ask anything you have already covered. I jumped on a little late. But, first question, you stated that your new construction revenue was actually up year-over-year. Was just wondering was that more southern geographies of your new construction projects hitting in the first quarter? Or, considering the weather, how do you think -- what do you think about that?

If you are talking about the shift in those pie charts, what you are seeing -- we had a big retrofit project that was a big part of last year on the West Coast that kind of finished. And that is just -- and in the first quarter, a couple percent change in that pie chart on the low revenues we have, I don't think -- I think we are really right on where we were last year. Until bigger jobs start to get started, I think -- I don't see a lot of change there.

And, really, Joe, it can move with bringing some equipment into the quarter, really. It is that close.

Okay. Even if there was flattish, though, given the weather and January in particular, is this quarter masked by the weather? And it should have been -- obviously, it should have been better if the weather was better, but the number -- I guess what I'm saying is the numbers look pretty good, even with the challenges of the weather.

What are your feelings going forward? How does April look? Are we going to expect mid-single digits second, third quarter and start to accelerate from there? Or how are you thinking about the future?

No, I don't know how April is looking yet. But I think if you are looking at the 3% to 5% increase as McGraw-Hill and I think that is what [C&L did], Joe, at the moment. I think we will see some improvement in the construction business throughout the country as we go forward.

Okay. The second question I have is on gross margins. Can you remind us how the profitability of new construction versus retrofits versus servicing plays out?

Well, service has the highest margin, particularly over the course of a business cycle. There are times when things are -- when there is high demand that construction can have really remarkably high margins. For example, in 2008, I think our construction margins exceeded some pretty good service margins.

But as a typical matter, service average much higher margins and it really carries you in tough times. Retrofit tends to have slightly higher margins than new construction if you are in a stable or a sedate market. The number one reason for that, really, is that we are going direct to the owner.

And, having said that, retrofit can also have a lot of coordination. You are often working in a building that is being used. So if you are at a school, you have got to pack things into the summer. If you are in a hospital, you have got to do weekend shutdowns.

That gives you an opportunity to demand more. It also heightens execution risk. But, generally speaking, our highest margins will be in pure service. Our second highest margins will be in small projects. Then will come retrofit and then will come new construction.

And SG&A will be just the opposite of what I said; lowest SG&A related to new construction, going up from there.

Okay. So I guess what I was trying to get at is that, are we going to expect, once new construction starts to pick up, maybe a little bit of a plateau-ing or at least just a sort of slowdown in the expansion of gross margins?

I will tell you what has happened in the past. What has happened in the past, when markets first get going, and twice I have been through this. When markets first get going and revenue starts to roll through on the new larger jobs, you will have -- that will create downward pressure on margins. Hopefully, we will be offsetting that with improvement in service, but just that by itself will create downward pressure on margins.

Large jobs, you tend to carry them at measured margins through the first part of the job, so -- because you don't know what is going to happen. There is a great deal of variability of what can happen. So you will start the job at -- if you start it at -- if you bid it at 10, you might carry it at 7. And then as you see, particularly once you are more than halfway done with the job and especially as you get much deeper into the job, as you see that when you start up the equipment it is running. As you see that the other trades are allowing you to do your work in an efficient and effective way, you start to release some of that margin. And so, then, you have the benefit of -- it is late in the job, you have the potential for much higher margins.

Okay. Lastly, I was just wondering -- I'm not sure if you touched on it yet, but acquisitions for the rest of the year -- what your expectations are?

I think we are concentrating on tuck-ins, although we are still working hard, in particular, on a few geographies that we think we would have synergies in. But, I think you will probably see at least a couple tuck-ins. I would not at this point be willing to go out on a limb and predict that we'd do another standalone.

Okay. And that would mean sort of smaller type deals, more so in the back half of the year?

You know, tuck-ins range from $1 million or $2 million of revenue for us all the way up to low double-digits -- $10 million, $12 million, $14 million. And, in revenue, we could pay anywhere from less than half of revenue to, if we buy just a premier like controls company with a really -- with hundreds of buildings in their installed base that they kind of control, we might pay nearly as much as revenue, although the multiples in either case would be similar because the mature control company is going to have much higher margins.

So that is the size range we are talking about. It doesn't really move the balance sheet much. It doesn't -- it moves revenue some, but what it does is, it improves existing operations over time.

There are no further questions, so I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Brian Lane for closing remarks.

All right. Thanks, Dave, and everyone, thanks for listening to our call and your interest in our Company. We really do feel good about the balance of this year. We are optimistic and we are poised for growth in both our service and we are ready for construction to improve.

And, once again, we are very excited and we welcome the folks in Dyna Ten into the Comfort family. Hope you all have a great day and we will see you soon.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.