Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) 2005 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good morning and thank you for standing by. After the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. [OPERATOR'S INSTRUCTION]. Today's conference is being recorded. [OPERATOR'S INSTRUCTIONS] I will now turn the meeting over to Bill George, Chief Financial Officer. Sir, you may begin.

  • Bill George - CFO

  • Good morning everyone. Welcome to Comfort Systems USA's First Quarter Earnings Call. At the outset, we want to remind everyone that our comments this morning as well as what we issued in our press release contained forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. What we say is based on the current plans and expectations of Comfort Systems USA. Those plans and expectations involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual future activities and results of our operation be materially different from those set forth in our comments. A more extended list of specific risks is detailed in our 10-K and our press release covering these earnings. On our call this morning are Bill Murdy, Comfort's Chairman and CEO, and Tom Tanner, our Chief Operating Officer. Bill Murdy is going to open our remarks.

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • Thanks Bill and welcome everyone. We are reporting a net income of $529,000 which rounds down to $0.01 per diluted share, for the just ended quarter, as compared to net income of a little over $1 million or $0.03 per diluted share for the first quarter of '04. As expected, we earned less than we did last year in this seasonally low first quarter due largely to underperformance in our large multi-family operation and our California and Salt Lake City operations. The situation in California as most of you are aware was exacerbated by the unprecedented rainfall in the December to February period out there. With the first quarter behind us, we continue to feel very positive about our prospects to exceed our 2004 earnings for the calendar year 2005.

  • First quarter revenues were $204.7 million, an increase of 6.2% as compared to the $192.8 million in the first quarter of '04. About 3.3% of that increase related to internal growth and the remaining 2.9% results from the acquisition of Granite State Plumbing & Heating, which we closed in early January this year. On the cash flow side, we had a very strong cash flow quarter as you would perhaps recall in the fourth quarter. We reported a negative free cash flow of $7.4 million in the current quarter, which was funded entirely out of existing cash balances. Cash at 31, March as you must have noted was $22.5 million. On a very positive note, backlog as of March 31, 2005, was a record $629.6 million, up 9.8% from $ 573.4 million, a previous record which we established December 31 of '04. Our increased revenues and record backlog reflect continuing improvement in activity levels in the sector and suggest a very good opportunity for success during the remainder of the year. Our acquisition of Granite State has met all our initial expectations, and they are part of the revenue and backlog increase numbers I just indicated. However, even without the effects of Granite State, revenue order was up 6.3 million or 3.3% and backlog has increased on a comparable basis by about $140 million or 29% from a year earlier. Overall, we believe we remain very well positioned to deliver strong results in 2005. At this time, I'd like to turn this back over to Bill George, our new Chief Financial Officer, this is his first analyst call as Chief Financial Officer and a few minutes ago he filed his first 10-Q as a Chief Financial Officer. Bill?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • Maybe after this call I can take the training wheels off. Thanks Bill. It is a pleasure to be here. As Bill mentioned, our revenues were up even without the addition of Granite State numbers, rising by 3.3% on a same-store basis. Net income declined by approximately 1 million in the first quarter of 2004 to 0.5 million in the most recent quarter. Our revenue mix remains well diversified with institutional work in hospitals, schools, and government building now representing more than one-third of our revenues and with multi-family still strong at 15%, average project size as of March 31 with 264,000 reflecting over 4480 projects in progress. We remain well diversified with respect to project size. We have 2 projects in the $15-25 million range, 5 projects between $10-15 million, 20 projects between $5-10 million, and 157 projects between $1-5 million, and finally, we have more than 4290 projects under $1 million.

  • Gross margin indications in our backlog, which is up substantially, gross profit indications were down 130 basis points sequentially. This primarily reflects our recent trend towards larger projects as we take advantage of the strengthening economy. Larger projects have intrinsically lower margins and they also intend to include a higher content of subcontracted work, which has less performance risk, which is obviously marked up at a much lower rate than what we directly perform. Another reason more large project work is reflected in our backlog is that we believe we are booking some of this work further in advance than we typically do due to increases in new construction, which takes longer to start and due to the overall rebound in market activity. A more specific important factor in contributing to the lower indications in backlog gross margin was the underperformance that the large multi-family operation that Bill mentioned earlier. The adjustments taken at that company account for more than one-third of that decline. Finally, we believe gross profit indications in backlog were impacted by an increased emphasis we placed on providing contingency in our labor estimates on work that will be performed in a more active economy. We still fell good about profitability in our backlog.

  • SG&A was up by about $1 million over the first quarter of last year, but was down as a percent of revenues. Just over one-third of the dollar increase represents SG&A of Granite State acquisition. The remainder includes increased accounting fees, mostly associated with Sarbanes-Oxley compliance and medical cost performance, offset by favorable development from disputed receivables. We plan to continue to hold SG&A increases below the rate of revenue growth. We had negative cash flow of 7.4 million in the first quarter. Negative cash flow is not unusual for us in our seasonally low first quarter. As work continues to pick up going into a busy summer, we anticipate investing additional working capital, but we are continuing our emphasis on good cash collections and management and expect solid positive cash flow in -- Our balance sheet continued to be an asset for us providing us strength, flexibility, and helpful marketing edge in our industry. That is it on financials. So, I will now introduce Tom Tanner, our Chief Operating Officer.

  • Tom Tanner - COO

  • Thanks, Bill. Good morning everyone. On the operations side, execution remains our emphasis for 2005. Profitable execution of our record backlog and improved execution in our service divisions continues to be my primary focus. Productivity training is either completed or in progress of more than half of our operations. We will continue to have follow up to this training during the remainder of 2005. We have accelerated our efforts in this area because of our record backlog. We believe we are beginning to see positive results from our ongoing productivity focus. We have developed a curriculum for a week long project manager academy specifically tailored for our project managers and field superintends. Over 100 employees will attend our academy during the current quarter. We recently completed the first program. Certain Senior Vice Presidents and I participated in the entire program and we were very pleased with the quality of the program and the very positive response we received from the academy at . As we discussed in our last call, we have made a significant commitment in developing a service group to improve both our topline revenue and our bottom line operating income from the very important service segment of our business. Starting with the current quarter the service group is fully staffed and is diligently working in several of our service operations. We expect to see improved results from these targeted efforts during the fourth quarter of this year.

  • We are continuous to focus on our SG&A expenses to ensure that we maintain the disciplined cost reduction culture that has developed during the last 2 years. We have experienced losses in some of our operations in the first quarter. This is not unusual in the seasonally low first quarter but some of the losses were greater than we would have wished. Bill Murdy previously mentioned some of those situations. We continue to work hard on these operations including making push and all changes were appropriate. We are encouraged by the fact that the loss operations in aggregate saw major improvements in each of the second and third months of this quarter especially in our large Houston-based multi primary operation. We did experience very strong results from several operations. This will include our operations in Orlando, Birmingham, Atlanta, Syracuse, Phoenix, Grand Rapids, remain both of our Washington DC operations Little Rock, Buffalo, and Cleveland.

  • I also want to comment on the drop in gross profit indications in our backlog that Bill George talked about. I think it is important to reiterate those points but in addition to the changes in project compensation on our backlog, we are encouraging our operations to make adequate provisions for the labor competition that we may experiment during the remainder of 2005. All in all I feel we have the foundations of solid profitability in our backlog. With that I will turn it back to Bill for a wrap up and Q&A.

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • Thanks Tom and Bill. I don't have much to wrap up here except to reiterate that our increasing revenue, our record backlog, combined with the corrected steps we have already taken in our multi-family operations, California operations, operations, we believe leaves us very well positioned to deliver strong results in 2005.

  • We would love to entertain questions as you have them. We have a number of people on the line, why not we open the mike to questions, Judie.

  • Operator

  • [OPERATOR INSTRUCTION]. David Yuschak, Sanders Morris Harris.

  • David Yuschak - Analyst

  • I guess a little bit about the multi-family, I think -- wasn't it the fourth quarter you guys had about 20% in the year revenue without a multi-family and were there issues with projects themselves or was it issues with weather that created some problems in getting execution done and could you let me just give us a little more clarity on the issues with the multi-family because it had been a pretty strong performer for you here of late?

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • We do have some profit. I am certain of the projects that they had -- that they actually acquired in 2003 that completed in 2004. In going forward, there were some weather delays in the so many years that they operated which is -- not only Texas, but Washington DC, Fort of Panhandle, California. We believe that -- we have completed an extensive review of their operations and we believe that they are back on target and had a very good and expect to be very profitable for the balance of '05.

  • Bill George - CFO

  • You're right, Dave, you know the multi-family sector, it is about 15% of our backlog, it is very important to us, it is robust. We believe that we have one of the best, if not the best, operations in vis-a-vis multi-family, year-end. We've had some sequencing problems, some weather problems and I think that we are through that period and indeed what happened in the last half of this quarter in that operation is very positive.

  • David Yuschak - Analyst

  • Okay. So it sounds like that was kind of more of a shorter-term phenomena there that you experienced that you were able to get the thing turnaround as quickly as it did.

  • Bill George - CFO

  • I think that is right. I mean, sequencing is very important, you know, we have a large backlog. And this generally, it was not just multi-family, we have a very large backlog. It is hard to let work forces go if you have an air pocket of slowed activity, which we've had, always had in the first quarter. On backlog, we want keep our forces in place. And so we just had some natural fall-off in the first quarter.

  • David Yuschak - Analyst

  • Okay. Year-over-year, your receivables are up. And that is -- when we take a look at your cash flow is that, that was probably one of the more important contributors to the cash flow -- pre cash have been available in this quarter. How much of that would maybe Granite adding to the receivables in the quarter?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • I don't have a specific number of how much of that was Granite. Obviously, they were part of the dollar amount. If you have another question, I will get that number and get right back.

  • David Yuschak - Analyst

  • One last question and I'll back in queue. Indicated in your backlog about subcontracting work being there, is there any sense to how much subcontracting work represents in your backlog? And has that been kind of a rising trend just because of the increased size of projects?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • It has been a rising trend because of the increased size of some of our projects. I don't know that we can quantify that number on the call, but we can certainly get that information. It is typically in some of the larger projects, where we find this concentration of subcontract work. That typically in the broad group of projects under the $1 million range. Dave, I had pulled out the Granite State acquisition footnote and overall increase in our receivables, 5.2 million of it was the Granite State, 4.2 million was not -- actually more than half of it hit this trail, you know, putting Granite State on the book.

  • David Yuschak - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

  • Operator

  • Rich Wasalowski, Sidoti & Company.

  • Rich Wasalowski - Analyst

  • Good morning.

  • Bill George - CFO

  • Good morning.

  • Rich Wasalowski - Analyst

  • Is the increased proportion of the larger projects in the backlog a result of an effort to get that proportion there? Or is that just what the market is giving you right now?

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • I think it is much the latter, Rich, you know, there has been a resurgence in lot of people's willingness to commit and start large projects with the increased activity in the economy and better feelings there. And these big projects just rolled in, you know, on a more global basis and I know this is not quite question you asked, but, you know, we want to move our revenues toward the service side, which is working in the existing facilities, but we find that as a percent -- And we would like to get 60% services at some point out there in the future. We are actually regressing on that because what happens is the big projects rolled in and as a proportion the total lay become very high, it takes longer to build in a big service base than does the and, you know, book new large projects. And it just started off, it is really what've said in the latter part of your question, it is what the market is giving us or what we are able to take from the current market. It's also our strong balance sheet and our capacity vis-a-vis some of our competitors in the market place that we are seeing is -- you know we are the contractor of choice in several of our markets, which has driven much of the increase in our backlog.

  • Rich Wasalowski - Analyst

  • Okay. Have the backlog margins in the second quarter dipped further or would you expect them to rebound when we are talking on the 2Q call?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • That would be effective -- we don't have the numbers, but I would expect them certainly not to decline. I don't have any reason to think they would, we think we know why they did, and you know those process is seem to be complete.

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • I would agree with Bill on that, we are not seeing any declines in gross margins in work that we're booking in the second quarter.

  • Rich Wasalowski - Analyst

  • Okay. Do you guys still expect to generate I think was 10 to $20 million of free cash for this year?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • We are still comfortable with that number.

  • Operator

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • My first question is, at what point do you feel like the backlog is big enough and you can focus on margin improvement as opposed to sales growth?

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • The fact that we have increased the backlog and booked some projects doesn't necessarily mean that we are not focused on productivity and bottom line improvement.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • Well, I'm sure you are focused on that, but the fact of the matter is that every quarter we've got two or three operations that are under performing and then this quarter with the margin of projects that you are accepting and your backlog has gone down. So, to me, that says that you guys are still emphasizing revenue growth over margin improvement and it seems to me the real leverage in this business is working on that margin improvement.

  • Bill George - CFO

  • We would agree with you on that and in fact it's part of Richard's question, it's what the market is giving us. We are being selective about what we are taking in the sense of simply not risking ourselves on low margin projects and not over competing and just find ourselves well positioned. Tom's point about our capability to bond when others can't leaves us in a position to pick up projects. I don't think we are pushing too far, and another comment we made is that some of these projects don't start -- they are in backlog, but they don't start for a while, so that's a very important dynamic.

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • Well, and Evan you know, if you think about the reasons that our gross profit indications were down, some of them --our backlog includes projects that are ongoing. So, when we have a situation like we had in multifamily, that goes right into those gross margins. But, one of the other reasons we mentioned about, why our gross profit margins have declined a little bit was that we went out to existing work in backlog and put in contingency per labor. You might infer from that in fact that the fact that we are also doing that with new work that's coming in, we are putting in stronger labor contingency, which is just another way of doing what you are talking about it. If you go and you put more contingency into your labor, you are solidifying future margins. So, in a sense, part of what you are seeing is another way of getting out exactly what you are saying, we are going to operations and saying, let's make sure we account for labor and other things. That automatically has to go through in the pricing.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • Fine, if you built it into pricing then wouldn't margins and the backlog stay consistent -- I mean what it sounds like to me is your pricing stayed consistent but you added in some cost because you are worried about cost going up in this ?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • Okay, and so, that comment had to do with sort of what you are going see going forward. It was a process we went through in the first quarter, but what I'm saying is the higher labor rates should be built in on a go forward. If you put in the same margin then you have more ability to perform the work profitably. No body here wants to argue with you, there's nothing you've said that we haven't been talking about .

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • So, I guess, just then coming back to my question at what point is the backlog big enough and you can start saying, what we are only going to bid projects that we can generate ex-margin on, that we can start getting back to our 4% operating margin goal.

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • Well, it is certainly true that we don't want to go to -- there is a point at which the margin is big enough, but one other factor I caution about is the backlog is big enough, so the margin is never big enough. One matter of point I caution about is, the other comment I made about how new work, new projects come out of the ground is true too. When you're increasing the amount of new work, when you are awarded a project, there is a permitting process and then there are many months of building. We don't mobilize on to a site until a building sort of looks like a building, and so part of what you're seeing in the backlog upswing is that we are getting more new project work. We are filling in backlog farther out which is exactly what you would expect in a more robust economy. So, I'm not saying that, that certainly doesn't take away from the validity of your point, because it's a very good point. It is a reason like you might see some further growth in backlog, it's a new -- even with higher prices, we would hope that we would still be getting a lot of that new construction, our share of that new construction as they get planned and awarded.

  • Tom Tanner - COO

  • I think in many of our operations, we are turning down opportunities to bid work that doesn't fit in the near-term schedule. We are in some instances, firing customers because of our past -- poor relationships with them, so we are being very selective in additional project acquisition, in most of our operations. Because frankly all but probably 5% have near or record backlogs as we speak.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • Okay. So, at some point should we expect to see the growth in the backlog slow a little bit so that you guys can increase the margins?

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • Yes. The evolution of our backlog will also include, part of it is in your backlog growth in the first 4 or 5 months of the year, it because you don't have high activity level. So, whatever you bring in you're not working backlog off. I think you're going to see a couple of factors come into play later in the year. Obviously with this much backlog we are being more discriminating with work just like you think we should be and you're absolutely right. But also we are going to start to work our way through a lot of this backlog. Because of those two factors I think you'll see backlog develop. Probably some more increase, but they shouldn't increase forever, that's for sure.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • Right, okay.

  • Tom Tanner - COO

  • Two quarters out from here when you're on this call again and our margins are up, you're probably going to ask us why our backlog is down.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • No, I'm a margin guy. So, that brings into my next question which is rather -- a very significant percentage of your work actually never goes in the backlog, is that right?

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • That's right, that's absolutely true. It's significant, we are estimating that at about probably 20%.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • Okay. So, 20%. On those kinds of projects what are you seeing in terms of margin trends?

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • We are seeing an improvement in margin trend in that work as those opportunities arise in selective markets.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • Okay. So, as the economy continues to strengthen and you guys continue to get more work, would it be your expectation that those margins will also continue to strengthen despite the pressures on labor?

  • Tom Tanner - COO

  • Yes. One of the reasons margins will improve is related to execution. When you look at margins and backlog, one of the things that we're more focused on is that we can deliver those margins or improve the margins to what the numbers went into backlog forward. And that is really our focus today.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • Okay. So, what you're saying is that, if something went into backlog at X percent margin, what you are focused on is delivering an X plus something margin?

  • Tom Tanner - COO

  • Yes.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • Okay. And then my last question is around the troubled operations. What has to change for you guys to get to the point where every quarter there aren't two or three operations that had trouble or is that just going to be the way the business is? I'm going to drag on earnings.

  • Tom Tanner - COO

  • you can turn it around in a way and say the fact of our geographic and market function diversity is a strength because it is the part of the business that something is going to fall out of bay whether that's a regional phenomenon or a local mistake phenomenon or something. I don't know the answer to the question. We have a lot of work going on in those few under performing companies to ensure that there is not an endemic problem continuing. And, I too have hope that at some point every cylinder would hit simultaneously and we will reach that point I think. It's tough to do that in our first quarter where you have all the normal seasonal pressures and concerns about maintaining workforces to accomplish backlog. But, I -- it's out there, and we frankly are always on that problem. We had downsized -- our action has been to downsize operations that are in markets where that continues to happen, when we -- there is real evidence of that. Even though we have got growth in our revenues, we have downsized certain operations, markets just don't work for us.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • And, are you guys seeing any issues around medical costs this year? I know in the past that's been a sensitive spot.

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • Well, medical costs for us came in about where expected in the first quarter. They were -- we had actually good trend on medical costs a year ago. So, it didn't help the comparative of first quarter '04 versus first quarter '05. But actually our overall medical costs have been pretty much flat for 3 years and we did have some bumps in the road before that and it's been more or less an advantage for us.

  • David Yuschak - Analyst

  • David Yuschak.

  • David Yuschak - Analyst

  • Let's go back to the -- when you take a look at what has happened in backlog, for two to three years, you guys are kind of stuck, you know, 400, whatever number it was, but it was around 400 plus or minus, whatever, but it's only been in the course of the last 2 to 3 quarters that you've really seen backlog take-off. I have to assume one that that's a function of what we are beginning to see in the market place, we are finally seeing non-residential construction activity pick up after several years you have been in the tank. Question I got for you, when you were trying to keep that backlog as 400 million or so, give me some perspectives on what gross margins were looking like there given those kind of conditions you had to deal with, because I would assume today even with the backlog. gross margin where it is now - gross margin -- the bidding activity because of overcapacity then had to be a lot more aggressive than what you are seeing with bidding activity today, because ultimately it's the amount of resource that has been put to play here as we look into the recovery and if you can give kind of -- backlog growth that we are seeing here now and those kind of projects continue to be left --

  • Tom Tanner - COO

  • I think Dave, --

  • David Yuschak - Analyst

  • Residential, next 18 months could be very robust.

  • Tom Tanner - COO

  • Yes. The only part of the cramus -- of your question that you know, we weren't trying to hold down backlog, I mean, the - for a couple, for 2 years there from 9/11 forward for 24, 26 months was the worst 2 years plus in the industry in the last 30. So, we are not trying to hold down backlog, it just was -- projects just weren't there. And I think that while our GM, gross margin in backlog is down some, and we done some explaining of that -- there is a dollar volume aspect to this thing. This is real dollar profit on the same share base. So, while we can -

  • Tom Tanner - COO

  • *** Part 12 FIX *** --and get concerned about gross profit because of risk in delivering that because we're going to have inevitably some margin fade on anything. I think we want to focus also on the fact that we're creating a substantial volume of dollars and which is a volume of net income as well and we're certainly focused on that NOI rather than the GM here of 04.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • I think could you go back to that then, you know, like in it's first quarter, you had a 40-basis point improvement in the productivity of your SG&A. Isn't it because of these larger projects, aren't you going to be able to -- how much can you gather in way of productivity of your SG&A so that the net operating margin can have leverage off the bigger projects?

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • We definitely expect to get operating leverage off our SG&A. I think a couple of it stated in our prepared remarks, we don't expect SG&A to grow as quickly as our revenues grow and I think what you're saying is exactly right. I would also mention backlog is a pretty complicated thing. It includes a lot of factors that go in to help backlog. We'll work over a period of years. For example in a Dow market where we stated 400 million for a couple of years, one of the interesting phenomena in there was project delays. Project delays functionally increase your backlog because things stay in backlog and they don't come out of the ground and so the one thing you can take from backlog is, when backlog goes up, you're going to have increased activity, but another interesting nuance is even right now with backlog up, you won't see our revenues grow as quickly as our backlog because the type of backlog is this new construction and it's start. It has a different starting dynamic as there's a longer delay till certain things start then you'll see in the backlog for a renovation or for different kinds of that developer-based project. So, I think it's a little simplistic to sort of say it was flat when it took off, but I think that you can't claim trends about activity from it and then the trick is to do what quality guys want us to do with to take that backlog and harvest the margin out of it.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • Going forward then, the evidence of the last couple of quarters on backlog and bookings is any indication that -- and what I kind of view as a more favorable environment for non-residential construction, what about resources? You had indicated earlier that maybe you're putting -- you're obviously indicating in your backlog some reserve for labor components, they may be larger and try and take more conservative approach on it but, isn't it possible that this market will get stronger, and resources will get tighter and the last thing you want to do is have a constraint on growth as well. It's nice to get to rising margins but you also want to have the ability to not have any constraints on growth, Bill to take the kind of business. Do you envision anything out there that could create constraints on growth if, in fact, we do see a robust non-residential construction market in the course of next 12-18 months?

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • Certainly, our bill labor force is a constraint and growth as we move forward. One of the reasons why we focus so much on productivity and productivity improvement is that if we can make our existing labor force more productive, we can do more work. We can increase our volume. If you look at our employment levels, we're probably up 6% in that field year-over-year; companies are stepping up, as we speak, as this backlog begins to really kick-in in the second quarter. Unfortunately, in some of our marketplaces, we have a large enough share of the work that -- we are the employer of choice, and we have been able to increase our employment levels at these companies up. We're about overpaying for the labor. However, we do see if this is a broad-based continuing increase that there'll be pressure on wages. For these field craft work and that's one of the things that we're concerned about right now and why we have taken this more conservative approach in our backlog.

  • Evan Marville - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

  • Operator

  • Rich Wasalowski.

  • Rich Wasalowski - Analyst

  • I have no further questions for you.

  • Operator

  • Susan McCreary from Investments. .

  • Susan McCreary - Analyst

  • Hi. I was wondering in terms of the margin decline in the backlog on an apples-to-apples basis with smaller projects, from the inside projects, the picking out the mix issue, what was the decline in margin?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • Well, I can give you one statistic, you know that's an extraordinarily, in fact a complex question, but I will give you one statistics that might help. If you had looked at our 6-month work, our work that's likely to turn within 6 months, the margin decline was about half of that. It was about close to 70 basis points as opposed to 130 basis points. I think that's a pretty strong suggestion that you are seeing a lot less effect, you know that these things are -- this is happening exactly where you would expect it to happen and then larger new constructions.

  • Susan McCreary - Analyst

  • Have you already seen wages go up or is this all anticipation of what's going to happen later in the year?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • We have not seen wages increase at this point, but there is an anticipation as we get this year, and when we go into the market place to hire people. But in this industry, wage increases if they were going to come, aren't real likely to come in the first part of the year, just because that is the point in time when you are keeping people busy. So, you can have them when you get busy. If you wanted to go hire a competitor's people, the way you wouldn't do it, until you knew about -- you were busy or about to get busy, So--.

  • Susan McCreary - Analyst

  • And did you say that 20% of the revenues in the quarter were not from backlog earned?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • That was an estimate, certainly, really there are things that -- once again, it is a pretty nuance discussion, because there are things that go in and out of backlog very quickly. So, if you add up our backlog, because though it takes more than a year, a lot of it takes more than a year, it's greater than our revenue at any given time, if you take our project backlog and you add that to our remaining activity. So, the answer to that is, I believe there is certainly 20% that never even goes near our backlog, but then there is a quick turn kind of a project that hardly spends any time in our backlog, and which off those SKUs that result, and of course you have pure service, you have what we call sort of --

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • Susie, our service revenues don't pass the backlog, normally and any project that begins and ends in a quarter doesn't ever go through backlog. So, and we are pretty -- our backlog is really backlog. We've got a tight definition on backlog. It's a signed, deliverable project or something that is work in progress, it's not pipeline.

  • Susan McCreary - Analyst

  • Fine, so, did you say earlier that the margins on that work during the quarter were up year-over-year?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • The margin on work that will turn within 6 months was only was down about half of the overall margin. So, it wasn't affected much by putting in labor contingency, it wasn't affected as much by adjustments we made at our large multifamily. It wasn't affected as much, you know by the changing project mix.

  • Bill Murdy - CEO

  • That's executed, I think, she may have been referring what Tom said.

  • Susan McCreary - Analyst

  • What did Tom say, I guess I didn't understand that. He said that as opportunities arise in selected markets, that margins have gone up, will go up--?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • They began to go up at the beginning of the second quarter as companies you know flop with their backlog -- was at a level that they were comfortable with and if they begin to look for opportunities, where we are the contractor of choice because of past customer relationships, our reputation, in those instances we begin to raise prices.

  • Susan McCreary - Analyst

  • So, now, it does sound clear, which work specifically was this?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • It is both project work of a long-term variety and short term, quick-term projects.

  • Susan McCreary - Analyst

  • Fine.

  • Bill George - CFO

  • It is doing some of what Evan was alluding to. We don't want to admit that we are -- we have all of backlog whoever need but we can be a little selective here in that we are utilizing a lot of our capacity.

  • Susan McCreary - Analyst

  • Okay, my last question. Bill, I think you talked about doing very good that your earnings this year will exceed '04 and I mean, do you -- could you give any kind of color to that? I mean in terms of your backlog being up 30%, I would expect your earnings to substantially exceed '04 levels but you are not so confident about that?

  • Bill George - CFO

  • Susan, we are not going to get into the guidance business. It is a word.com to . I listened to CNBC. I hear all those people talk about guidance, guidance, guidance. We will exceed in '05 our earnings in '04. And I think we are comfortable with stating and restating that and we are comfortable with our cash flow, we are comfortable with our position, something that should not be wasted on anyone here. In fact our balance sheet is a strength here. It is not just a financial strength, it is a business strength. Some people don't get jobs, because end users and general contractors look at them and say 'we are a little concerned about your financial situation' and then you will certainly never get a job that is bonded, if you can't bond it. We have that capability. We don't want to be arrogant about our but that is a positive thing that you can add to our backlog strength. But I think in terms of guidance, a number, we are just comfortable with saying that we will exceed last year's earnings.

  • Susan McCreary - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

  • Operator

  • Once again, to ask a question, please press star one. One moment please. I am showing no further questions.

  • Bill George - CFO

  • Susan, I will just add a color to that. One of that is we might ask why won't we give guidance. We just don't see any upside in it and there is tremendous down side in it. Legal and otherwise. So we are just comfortable but I don't mean to be snippy about it and I hope I don't sound that way. But thank you all for your attendance and attention and your questions. If you have questions that haven't occurred to you at this point, Bill and myself and Tom are available to you by phone if you want to call as long as we can adhere to the FD aspects . So, thank you all for your attendance and we will see you on this call in another quarter. Thank you.