Fifth Third Bancorp (FITBI) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Fifth Third Bancorp's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    感謝您的耐心等待,歡迎參加 Fifth Third Bancorp 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Matt Curoe, Senior Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

    現在我將把電話交給投資者關係高級總監 Matt Curoe。你可以開始了。

  • Matt Curoe - Senior Director of Investor Relations

    Matt Curoe - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Fifth Third's third quarter 2025 earnings call. This morning, our Chairman, CEO, and President, Tim Spence; and CFO, Bryan Preston will provide an overview of our third quarter results and outlook. Our Chief Credit Officer, Greg Schroeck, has also joined for the Q&A portion of the call.

    各位早安。歡迎參加 Fifth Third 銀行 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天上午,我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁蒂姆·斯賓塞和首席財務長布萊恩·普雷斯頓將概述我們第三季度的業績和展望。我們的首席信貸官格雷格·施羅克也參加了電話會議的問答環節。

  • Please review the cautionary statements in our materials, which can be found in our earnings release and presentation. These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results as well as forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance. These statements speak only as of October 17, 2025, and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them.

    請查閱我們資料中的警示聲明,這些資料可以在我們的獲利報告和簡報中找到。這些資料包含有關使用非 GAAP 指標和與 GAAP 結果的調節的信息,以及有關 Fifth Third 業績的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明僅代表截至 2025 年 10 月 17 日的情況,第五三銀行不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

  • Following prepared remarks by Tim and Bryan, we will open up the call for questions. With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

    在提姆和布萊恩作完準備好的發言後,我們將開放提問環節。那麼,接下來就交給提姆吧。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. At Fifth Third, we believe that great banks distinguish themselves not by how they perform in benign environments or rather by how they navigate on certain ones. Our operating priorities are stability, profitability, and growth in that order. We seek to achieve them by obsessing over the detail on our day-to-day operations while simultaneously investing for the long term.

    各位早安,感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。在 Fifth Third,我們認為,偉大的銀行之所以能脫穎而出,不是因為它們在有利的環境下表現如何,而是因為它們在某些特定環境下如何應對。我們的經營重點依序是穩定、獲利和成長。我們力求透過關注日常營運的細節,同時進行長期投資來實現這些目標。

  • As you are aware, last week, we announced the merger of Fifth Third and Comerica. Our M&A framework has been consistent. First, that M&A is not a strategy unto itself, but rather a means to achieve stated strategic objectives. Second, that the cash earn back, IRR, and NPV of synergies must be superior to organic alternatives to justify higher execution risk. And third, that the outcome must be a company that is better, not just bigger. We believe this is one of those rare combinations that satisfies all three criteria.

    如您所知,上週我們宣布了 Fifth Third 銀行和 Comerica 銀行的合併。我們的併購框架一直保持一致。首先,併購本身並不是一種策略,而是實現既定策略目標的手段。其次,綜效的現金報酬、內部報酬率和淨現值必須優於有機替代方案,才能證明更高的執行風險是合理的。第三,最終結果必須是打造一家更好的公司,而不僅僅是規模更大的公司。我們認為這是極少數能夠同時滿足這三個條件的組合之一。

  • Fifth Third's stand-alone momentum in the revenue and expense synergies from Comerica should produce a well-diversified, even more profitable company with even better long-term growth.

    第五三銀行憑藉從康美銀行獲得的收入和支出協同效應,其獨立發展勢頭應該會使其成為一家多元化程度更高、盈利能力更強、長期增長前景更好的公司。

  • Shifting to third quarter earnings. This morning, we reported earnings per share of $0.91 or $0.93, excluding certain items outlined on page 2 of the release. Reported and core results include the impact of nearly $200 million of provision expense associated with the fraud at Tricolor, which marred otherwise an excellent quarter of operating results across NII, fees, expenses, and strategic growth. Average loans increased 6% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter where year-over-year loan growth accelerated.

    接下來討論第三季財報。今天早上,我們公佈了每股收益為 0.91 美元或 0.93 美元,不包括新聞稿第 2 頁中列出的某些項目。報告和核心業績包括與 Tricolor 詐欺事件相關的近 2 億美元的撥備支出,這給原本在淨利息收入、費用、支出和戰略增長方面表現優異的一個季度蒙上了陰影。平均貸款額年增 6%,這是貸款額較去年同期成長連續第四個季度加速成長。

  • Average demand deposits were up 3% year-over-year, led by 6% consumer DDA growth. Adjusted revenues also rose 6%, underpinned by 7% improvement in net interest income and 5% growth in fees. Adjusted PPNR increased 11%, producing 330 basis points of positive operating leverage. Even with the impact of the large fraud, our profitability remains strong. On an adjusted basis, our ROA was 1.25%, our RoTCE was 17.7%, and our efficiency ratio was 54.1%.

    平均活期存款年增 3%,其中消費者活期存款成長 6%。調整後的收入也成長了 6%,這主要得益於淨利息收入成長 7% 和手續費收入成長 5%。調整後的淨利率成長了 11%,產生了 330 個基點的正經營槓桿。即使受到重大詐欺事件的影響,我們的獲利能力依然強勁。經調整後,我們的資產報酬率為 1.25%,總權益報酬率為 17.7%,效率比率為 54.1%。

  • In credit, commercial non-performing assets declined 14% and criticized assets decreased 4%, to the lowest level in over three years. Lastly, tangible book value per share grew 7% year-over-year and 3% sequentially in a quarter in which we repurchased $300 million of stock and raised our common dividend by 8%.

    在信貸方面,商業不良資產下降了 14%,受批評資產下降了 4%,降至三年多來的最低水準。最後,在本季度,我們回購了 3 億美元的股票,並將普通股股息提高了 8%,每股有形帳面價值年增 7%,環比成長 3%。

  • Turning to our growth strategies. Our investments in the Southeast and expanding our middle market sales force and in building high-growth recurring fee businesses continue to demonstrate strong results. We added 13 branches in the Southeast during the third quarter, including our first in Alabama, and we expect to open 27 more before the end of the year. Consumer households across the Southeast increased by 7% year-over-year more than 4x the rate of underlying market growth.

    接下來談談我們的成長策略。我們在東南地區的投資、擴大中端市場銷售團隊、建立高成長的經常性收費業務,持續取得強勁的成效。第三季度,我們在東南部新增了 13 家分行,其中包括我們在阿拉巴馬州的第一家分行,我們預計在年底前還將開設 27 家分行。美國東南部地區的家庭消費額年增 7%,是市場整體成長率的 4 倍以上。

  • Our deposit pricing remained disciplined with the total cost of retail deposits in the Southeast averaging 193 basis points in the quarter. We'll leverage the same proven de novo playbook, marketing tactics, and differentiated digital offerings to drive retail deposit growth as we add 150 branches to Comerica's Texas footprint. Together, we'll have a presence in 17 of the fastest-growing large US metro areas.

    我們的存款定價維持穩健,本季東南地區零售存款總成本平均為 193 個基點。我們將利用同樣有效的全新業務拓展策略、行銷策略和差異化的數位產品,在 Comerica 於德州新增 150 家分行的同時,推動零售存款成長。我們將攜手進軍美國發展最快的 17 個大型都會區。

  • In our regions, our focus on middle market and wealth management is delivering new quality relationships, granular loan growth, and recurring fees. In the third quarter, middle market RM headcount increased 8% year-over-year. New client acquisition increased 40% and average middle market loans increased 6%.

    在我們所在的地區,我們專注於中端市場和財富管理,從而建立了新的高品質關係,實現了精細化的貸款成長和持續的收入。第三季度,中端市場RM員工人數較去年同期成長8%。新客戶獲取量增加了 40%,中端市場貸款平均成長了 6%。

  • In Wealth and Asset Management, advisor headcount rose to 10% year-over-year, while fees climbed 11% and assets under management reached $77 billion in the quarter. Post close, we will rely on the same recruiting disciplines, investment capacity, and one bank sales approach to help Comerica accelerate the growth of their crown jewel middle market franchise.

    在財富和資產管理領域,顧問人數年增 10%,費用增加 11%,本季管理資產達 770 億美元。交易完成後,我們將依靠同樣的招募流程、投資能力和單一銀行的銷售模式,幫助 Comerica 加速其核心中端市場特許經營業務的成長。

  • In our CIB verticals, Franchise Finance had another standout quarter. Over the past year, we have served as the lead arranger on 24 transactions totaling $3.9 billion, including eight in the third quarter alone. Over the past two years, the Franchise Finance team has generated more than $40 million in annual commercial payments fees and $34 million in capital markets fees. We are excited to add Comerica's strong verticals to our existing expertise including in National Dealer Services, Environmental Services, and Tech and Life Sciences, among others.

    在我們的企業及投資銀行垂直領域,特許經營融資業務又迎來了一個出色的季度。過去一年,我們擔任了 24 筆交易的領導安排人,交易總額達 39 億美元,其中僅第三季就完成了 8 筆交易。過去兩年,特許經營財務團隊每年創造了超過 4,000 萬美元的商業支付費用和 3,400 萬美元的資本市場費用。我們很高興將 Comerica 的強大垂直領域優勢融入我們現有的專業領域中,包括全國經銷商服務、環境服務以及科技和生命科學等領域。

  • In commercial payments, fee growth reaccelerated to 3% sequentially in the third quarter. Newline increased revenue by 31% year-over-year and grew deposits by more than a $1 billion. We expect Newline to sustain its growth as transactional activity ramps from the rollout of Strike Treasury and many other category definement payments customers who build on Newline's APIs.

    在商業支付領域,第三季手續費成長較上季加速至 3%。Newline 的營收年增 31%,存款額成長超過 10 億美元。我們預計,隨著 Strike Treasury 的推出以及許多其他基於 Newline API 的類別定義支付客戶的業務成長,Newline 的交易活動將持續增加。

  • We're also seeing strong early activity from our acquisition of DTS Connex. Since the announcement, we have launched pilots with the most profitable quick service restaurant in the industry and the 1,200 location chain of convenience stores and also executed the first pre-ordered branch change order at a major bank with over 2,000 branches.

    我們也看到,收購 DTS Connex 後,公司目前已取得強勁的早期業績。自宣布以來,我們已與業內盈利能力最強的快餐店和擁有 1200 家門店的便利店連鎖店開展了試點項目,並在一家擁有 2000 多家分行的大型銀行執行了首個預訂分行變更訂單。

  • On Direct Express, our merger with Comerica should simplify the transition for its 3.4 million program participants. We also anticipate additional growth opportunities stemming from the President's executive order, mandating the transition to electronic payments for all federal disbursements.

    對於 Direct Express 而言,我們與 Comerica 的合併應該會簡化其 340 萬名計畫參與者的過渡過程。我們也預計,總統的行政命令將帶來更多成長機會,該命令強制要求所有聯邦撥款過渡到電子支付。

  • Lastly, we continue to deploy technology and lean manufacturing principles to produce savings and boost scalability. From our peak staffing level in early 2019, total headcount at Fifth Third is down 8%, while adjusted revenues are up 20%. The investments we've made will help us to efficiently scale the business and achieve our synergy targets as we integrate Comerica.

    最後,我們繼續運用技術和精實生產原則來節省成本並提高可擴展性。與 2019 年初的員工人數高峰相比,Fifth Third 的總員工人數下降了 8%,而調整後的收入增加了 20%。我們所做的投資將幫助我們有效率地擴大業務規模,並在整合 Comerica 的過程中實現我們的協同效應目標。

  • Before Bryan provides further detail on our outlook, I'd like to revisit the commitments we made at the beginning of the year, to deliver record NII regardless of the rate environment and to produce 150 basis points to 200 basis points of positive operating leverage for the full year. We will deliver both.

    在布萊恩進一步詳細說明我們的展望之前,我想重申一下我們在年初做出的承諾,即無論利率環境如何,都要實現創紀錄的淨利息收入,並在全年實現 150 至 200 個基點的正向經營槓桿。我們會交付這兩樣東西。

  • Looking to 2026 and beyond, there is so much to be excited about at Fifth Third. Among these, the tailwind from our investments in the Southeast, along with 60 additional branches to be opened next year, the sustained excellence of our J.D. Power award-winning digital experience and differentiated payments products, the incredible new colleagues, geographies and capabilities at Comerica becoming part of our company.

    展望 2026 年及以後,第五三銀行有許多令人興奮之處。其中,我們在東南地區的投資帶來的順風,以及明年將開設的 60 家新分行,我們屢獲 J.D. Power 獎項的數位體驗和差異化支付產品的持續卓越表現,以及 Comerica 加入我們公司後帶來的傑出新同事、地域和能力。

  • I'm grateful to all of the people whose hard work has put us in a position to take these steps. To the colleagues of both Fifth Third and Comerica, who will work so hard in the coming months to make our partnership a success and in particular, to our clients who entrust us with their well-being.

    我衷心感謝所有為使我們能夠採取這些步驟而辛勤工作的人們。致 Fifth Third 和 Comerica 的同事們,在接下來的幾個月裡,你們將努力工作,使我們的合作取得成功;尤其要感謝那些將他們的福祉託付給我們的客戶們。

  • With that, Bryan will provide more detail on the quarter and our outlook for the fourth quarter.

    接下來,布萊恩將詳細介紹本季的情況以及我們對第四季的展望。

  • Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Tim, and thank you to everyone joining us today. Third quarter results reflect disciplined execution of our strategic priorities. Expanding in the Southeast, scaling payments in Newline, and maintaining operational efficiency while delivering strong performance in a rapidly changing environment. Adjusted revenue was $2.3 billion, our highest since 2022. NII grew 7% year-over-year and 2% sequentially and net interest margin expanded for the seventh consecutive quarter.

    謝謝提姆,也謝謝今天所有到場的朋友。第三季業績反映了我們對策略重點的嚴格執行。在東南地區擴張,擴大 Newline 的支付規模,並在快速變化的環境中保持營運效率,同時取得強勁的業績。調整後的收入為 23 億美元,是自 2022 年以來的最高水準。淨利息收入年增 7%,季增 2%,淨利差連續第七個季度擴大。

  • Our balance sheet continues to benefit from our balanced business mix through diversified loan origination platforms, fixed rate asset repricing tailwinds, and broad funding sources supporting proactive liability management. Our fee businesses, led by wealth, commercial payments, and capital markets delivered adjusted growth of 5% year-over-year and 7% sequentially.

    我們的資產負債表繼續受益於我們均衡的業務組合,這得益於多元化的貸款發放平台、固定利率資產重新定價的利好因素以及支持積極負債管理的廣泛融資來源。在財富管理、商業支付和資本市場等業務的帶動下,我們的收費業務實現了同比增長 5% 和環比增長 7%。

  • This revenue performance, along with ongoing expense discipline, led to an 11% increase in pre-provision net revenue and 330 basis points of positive operating leverage on an adjusted basis compared to the third quarter of last year.

    這項營收表現,加上持續的費用控制,使得撥備前淨收入較去年第三季成長了 11%,經調整後的營運槓桿率為正 330 個基點。

  • As Tim mentioned, tangible book value per share, including the impact of AOCI, grew 3% from the second quarter despite only an 8-basis point decrease in the 10-year treasury rate, unrealized losses on our AFS portfolio improved 9% sequentially, underscoring the benefits of our bullet and locked-out securities. These positions provide certainty of cash flows and should continue to support tangible book value growth as they pull to par.

    正如 Tim 所提到的,儘管 10 年期國債利率僅下降了 8 個基點,但包括 AOCI 影響在內的每股有形賬面價值仍比第二季度增長了 3%;我們 AFS 投資組合的未實現損失環比改善了 9%,凸顯了我們的一次性到期證券和鎖定證券的優勢。這些部位能夠確保現金流,隨著股價回升至面額,應該會繼續支撐有形帳面價值的成長。

  • Now diving further into the income statement and balance sheet performance. Net interest margin expanded 23 basis points over last year and 1 basis point sequentially. Year-over-year, average loans are up 6%, and excluding CRE categories, average balances are up 7%. Repricing benefits on fixed rate assets and disciplined management of liability costs continue to contribute to the strong NII performance.

    現在深入分析損益表和資產負債表的表現。淨利差較上年擴大23個基點,較上季擴大1個基點。與去年同期相比,平均貸款額增加了 6%,如果排除商業房地產類別,平均餘額增加了 7%。固定利率資產的重新定價收益和負債成本的嚴格管理繼續為強勁的淨利息收入表現做出貢獻。

  • As Tim noted, relationship manager headcount is up 8%, and average middle market loans grew 6% over the last year. Third quarter middle market production rebounded sharply, up around 50% on both a year-over-year and sequential basis.

    正如蒂姆所指出的那樣,客戶經理人數增加了 8%,過去一年中,中型市場的貸款平均增加了 6%。第三季中端市場產量大幅反彈,年比及季均成長約 50%。

  • Production levels are stable to improving in 11- of 14 regions, with the strongest performance in Central Ohio, Georgia, Texas and the Carolinas. Provide, our fintech lending platform for Practice Finance continues to drive growth with balances up nearly $1 billion over the last year.

    在 14 個地區中,有 11 個地區的生產水準保持穩定或有所提高,其中俄亥俄州中部、喬治亞州、德克薩斯州和卡羅來納州的表現最為強勁。Provide,我們以實踐財務為導向的金融科技貸款平台,在過去一年中持續推動成長,餘額增加了近 10 億美元。

  • This growth in middle market C&I and Provide helps offset paydowns in our CIB and CRE portfolios, where average loan balances declined modestly as clients access bond and permanent financing markets during the quarter. This capital markets activity was a contributor to our strong fee performance during the quarter.

    中階市場 C&I 和 Provide 的成長有助於抵消我們 CIB 和 CRE 投資組合的償還減少,由於客戶在本季度進入債券和永久融資市場,這些投資組合的平均貸款餘額略有下降。本季資本市場活動是我們取得強勁收費業績的原因之一。

  • Production in our corporate banking verticals also rebounded this quarter, up 24% over 2Q. Pipelines for Middle Market and Corporate Banking remain strong heading into year-end. Commercial line utilization held steady throughout the quarter and ended in the mid-36% area.

    本季度,我們企業銀行業務的產量也出現反彈,比第二季度成長了 24%。進入年底,中階市場和企業銀行業務的業務管道依然強勁。本季商業線路利用率保持穩定,最終穩定在 36% 左右。

  • In total, end-of-period commercial loans are up 5% over last year. Consumer loans grew 2% on an average basis and 1% on a period-end basis from the prior quarter. We once again saw growth in nearly every major consumer lending category, led by continued strength in auto and home equity lending.

    期末商業貸款總額較去年同期成長5%。消費貸款平均成長 2%,期末成長 1%,與上一季相比。我們再次看到幾乎所有主要消費信貸類別都實現了成長,其中汽車貸款和房屋淨值貸款的持續強勁成長尤為突出。

  • Shifting to deposits. Average core deposits increased 1% sequentially driven by DDA and money market growth. Average non-interest-bearing deposits grew 1% sequentially and 3% over the prior year, led by consumer DDA growth of 6% as we continue to drive strong household growth through a de novo investment. Overall, consumer household growth remained strong at 3% over the last year, led by the 7% growth in the Southeast.

    轉向存款。受活期存款和貨幣市場成長的推動,平均核心存款較上季成長 1%。平均無息存款較上季成長 1%,年增 3%,其中消費者活期存款成長 6%,我們透過新投資持續推動強勁的家庭成長。整體而言,過去一年消費者家庭成長保持強勁,達到 3%,其中東南地區成長 7%,帶動了整體成長。

  • Proactive balance sheet management has allowed us to maintain our strong liquidity position while reducing our overall funding costs. We remain focused on granular insured deposits, growing average consumer and small business deposits by 1% sequentially. Consumer and payments linked deposit growth has given us the flexibility to manage down wholesale funding, which declined 3% sequentially. This favorable mix shift lowered the cost of interest-bearing liabilities by 1 basis point.

    積極主動的資產負債表管理使我們能夠在保持強勁流動性的同時,降低整體融資成本。我們將繼續專注於細分領域的受保存款,使消費者和小型企業的平均存款較上季成長 1%。與消費和支付相關的存款成長使我們有彈性來控制批發融資,批發融資較上季下降了 3%。這種有利的結構調整使計息負債的成本降低了 1 個基點。

  • Our Southeast de novo investments continue to deliver high-quality, low-cost retail deposits. Locations opened between 2022 and 2024 are significantly outperforming expectations with deposits per branch at month 12, averaging over $25 million, outpacing our model targets. And as Tim mentioned, our total cost of deposits in the Southeast is only 1.93%, generating 200-plus basis points of spread relative to Fed funds.

    我們在東南地區的全新投資持續帶來高品質、低成本的零售存款。2022 年至 2024 年間開設的分行業績顯著超出預期,第 12 個月每家分行的存款額平均超過 2,500 萬美元,超過了我們的模型目標。正如提姆所提到的,我們在東南部的存款總成本僅為 1.93%,相對於聯邦基金利率產生了 200 多個基點的利差。

  • We remain on track to open 50 branches this year, with 23 opened year-to-date. We have secured approximately 85% of the locations for the additional 200 Southeast branches that we announced last November. We ended the quarter with full category 1 LCR compliance at 126% and our loan-to-core deposit ratio was 75%, down 1% from the prior quarter.

    我們仍按計畫在今年開設 50 家分店,目前已開設 23 家。我們已為去年 11 月宣布的東南地區新增 200 家分行確定了約 85% 的選址。本季末,我們完全達到了第一類 LCR 合規率,達到 126%,貸款與核心存款比率為 75%,比上一季下降了 1%。

  • Moving on to fees. Adjusted non-interest income, excluding security gains and Visa swap impacts, grew 7% sequentially and 5% over the last year. Wealth fees rose by 11% over the last year on $8 billion of AUM growth and strong retail brokerage activity. Capital markets fees rebounded, up 28% sequentially and 4% over the last year driven by higher activity in loan syndications and M&A advisories.

    接下來談談費用。經調整的非利息收入(不包括證券收益和 Visa 互換的影響)較上季成長 7%,較去年同期成長 5%。過去一年,財富管理費用成長了 11%,這得益於資產管理規模成長了 80 億美元以及零售經紀業務的強勁成長。資本市場費用反彈,季增 28%,較上年增長 4%,主要受銀團貸款和併購諮詢業務活動增加的推動。

  • Commercial payment fees increased $5 million or 3% sequentially, including a $2 million negative impact from higher earnings credits on demand deposit growth. This fee performance was driven by core treasury management and Newline-related gross fees.

    商業支付費用較上季增加 500 萬美元,增幅為 3%,其中包括活期存款成長因收益抵免增加而產生的 200 萬美元負面影響。這項費用表現主要得益於核心資金管理和與 Newline 相關的總費用。

  • Newline-related deposits hit $3.9 billion, up $1 billion from a year ago. The securities gains of $10 million were from the mark-to-market impact of our non-qualified deferred compensation plan, which is offset in compensation expense.

    與新線相關的存款達到 39 億美元,比一年前增加了 10 億美元。證券收益 1000 萬美元來自我們非合格遞延薪酬計劃的市值調整影響,這部分收益已在薪酬支出中抵消。

  • Moving to expenses. Adjusted non-interest expense increased 3% compared to the year ago quarter and 2% sequentially, reflecting continued strategic investments in technology, branches and sales personnel. Even with the headcount additions associated with these investments, overall headcount was down 1% versus last year as our value stream programs continue to drive savings through automation and process redesign. By year-end, we anticipate $200 million of annualized run rate savings associated with our value stream programs.

    轉到費用部分。經調整的非利息支出較上年同期成長 3%,較上季成長 2%,反映出對技術、分公司和銷售人員的持續策略投資。即使考慮到這些投資帶來的人員增加,由於我們的價值流計畫繼續透過自動化和流程重新設計來節省成本,因此整體人員數量比去年減少了 1%。到年底,我們預計與價值流計畫相關的年度運行率將節省 2 億美元。

  • Shifting to credit. The net charge-off ratio was 109 basis points for the quarter, which includes $178 million in net charge-offs from Tricolor. NPAs declined 10% sequentially as expected and the NPA ratio decreased to 65 basis points. Broad-based credit trends remain stable across industries and geographies.

    轉向信用支付。本季淨沖銷率為 109 個基點,其中包括來自 Tricolor 的 1.78 億美元淨沖銷。不良貸款按預期環比下降 10%,不良貸款率下降至 65 個基點。各行業和地區的信貸整體趨勢保持穩定。

  • Excluding Tricolor, commercial charge-offs were 51 basis points compared to 38 basis points in the prior quarter. This increase is due to the resolution of certain non-performing loans for which specific reserves had been previously established.

    除 Tricolor 外,商業核銷額為 51 個基點,上一季為 38 個基點。這一增長是由於某些不良貸款得到解決,而這些不良貸款先前已設立了專門的準備金。

  • Commercial non-performing loans decreased 14% sequentially and 30% since the first quarter. Consumer charge-offs were 52 basis points in the quarter, down 4 basis points, which is the lowest level over the last two years. The sequential decrease is primarily due to improvement in solar lending charge-offs which were down 39 basis points sequentially as expected. The broad consumer portfolio remains healthy with non-accrual and over 90 delinquency rates stable or improving across loan categories.

    商業不良貸款季減 14%,較第一季下降 30%。本季消費者貸款註銷率為 52 個基點,下降 4 個基點,為近兩年來的最低水準。環比下降的主要原因是太陽能貸款核銷額有所改善,季減了 39 個基點,符合預期。整體消費貸款組合依然健康,各類貸款的非應計貸款和超過 90% 的拖欠率保持穩定或有所改善。

  • Provision expense included a $142 million reduction in our allowance for credit losses, reflecting improvement in Moody's macroeconomic scenarios and a reduction in specific reserves. Even with the scenario improvements, our baseline and downside cases assume unemployment reaching 4.8% and 8.4% in 2026, respectively. We made no changes to our scenario weightings during the quarter.

    撥備支出包括信貸損失準備金減少 1.42 億美元,這反映了穆迪宏觀經濟情景的改善以及特定準備金的減少。即使情境有所改善,我們的基準情境和下行情境仍假設 2026 年失業率將分別達到 4.8% 和 8.4%。本季我們沒有對情景權重進行任何更改。

  • ACL as a percentage of our portfolio loans and leases decreased 13 basis points to 1.96%. The ACL as a percentage of non-performing assets increased to 302% in due to the decrease in NPAs.

    貸款和租賃占我們投資組合的比例下降了 13 個基點,至 1.96%。由於不良資產減少,ACL 佔不良資產的百分比上升至 302%。

  • Moving to capital. CET1 ended at 10.54% consistent with our near-term target of 10.5%. The pro forma CET1 ratio including the AOCI impact of the securities portfolio is 8.8%. We expect continued improvement in the unrealized losses as 62% of the fixed rate securities in our AFS portfolio are in bolder lockout structures which provides a high degree of certainty to our principal cash flow expectations.

    向資本轉移。CET1 收在 10.54%,與我們近期 10​​.5% 的目標一致。考慮證券組合的 AOCI 影響後的備考 CET1 比率為 8.8%。我們預計未實現損失將持續改善,因為我們 AFS 投資組合中 62% 的固定利率證券採用了更嚴格的鎖定結構,這為我們的主要現金流預期提供了高度的確定性。

  • Moving to our current outlook. We expect NII to be stable to up 1% from the third quarter due to loan and core deposit growth. This outlook assumes two 25-basis point rate cuts during the fourth quarter. We expect average total loan balances to be up 1% due to normal seasonal growth, strong C&I pipelines, and continued broad-based momentum in consumer lending. We expect adjusted non-interest income to be up 2% to 3% due to seasonal strength in capital markets and continued commercial payments growth.

    接下來談談我們目前的展望。我們預計,由於貸款和核心存款的成長,淨利息收入將保持穩定或較第三季成長1%。這項展望假設第四季將兩次降息,每次降息 25 個基點。我們預計,由於正常的季節性成長、強勁的工商業貸款項目以及消費信貸持續的廣泛成長勢頭,平均貸款總額將成長 1%。我們預計,由於資本市場的季節性強勁成長和商業支付的持續成長,調整後的非利息收入將成長 2% 至 3%。

  • Fourth quarter adjusted noninterest expense is expected to be up 2% due to the opening of 27 financial centers in the Southeast and incentive compensation related to the growth in capital markets fees. In total, our guide implies full year adjusted revenue to be up nearly 5% and PPNR to grow 7% to 8%.

    由於東南地區開設了 27 家金融中心以及與資本市場費用成長相關的激勵性薪酬,預計第四季度調整後的非利息支出將增加 2%。總體而言,我們的預測表明,全年調整後收入將成長近 5%,每千人淨收入將成長 7% 至 8%。

  • Moving to credit. Fourth quarter net charge-offs are expected to be around 40 basis points. Finally, turning to capital. We will be pausing share repurchases until the close of the Comerica acquisition, which is currently expected around the end of the first quarter of 2026.

    轉為信用貸款。預計第四季淨沖銷額約為 40 個基點。最後,我們來談談資本問題。我們將暫停股票回購,直至完成對 Comerica 的收購,目前預計收購將於 2026 年第一季末完成。

  • In summary, we expect to maintain our momentum as we end the year and achieved record NII, positive operating leverage and strong returns in an uncertain environment, all while continuing to invest for the long term.

    總而言之,我們預計在年底前保持成長勢頭,在不確定的環境下實現創紀錄的淨利息收入、正的經營槓桿和強勁的回報,同時繼續進行長期投資。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Matt to open up the call for Q&A.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給馬特,讓他開始問答環節。

  • Matt Curoe - Senior Director of Investor Relations

    Matt Curoe - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Bryan. (Event Instructions)

    謝謝你,布萊恩。(活動須知)

  • Operator, please open the call for Q&A.

    操作員,請開啟問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

    傑拉德·卡西迪,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Tim, can you give us some further updates or color on the Comerica transaction in terms of how it's been received internally at Comerica and maybe by their customers? They're going to be obviously part of Fifth Third in a short while.

    Tim,你能否就 Comerica 的交易提供一些新的進度或細節,例如 Comerica 內部以及客戶對此交易的反應?顯然,他們很快就會成為第五三銀行的一部分。

  • And then second, as part of that, how the process is going with the regulators? We're seeing an incredibly expedited timeline on deals that have been announced before your deal being approved in less than six months.

    其次,作為其中的一部分,與監管機構的溝通進度如何?我們看到,一些交易的審批速度驚人地快,有些交易在你之前就已經宣布,但不到六個月就獲得了批准。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Happy to do that, Gerard. And I think in general, it's just been, I think, positive all the way across the board. So just to start with the regulators first, I think we're making good progress on the regulatory filings. We expect to have them complete by the end of the month.

    是的。我很樂意效勞,傑拉德。總的來說,我認為各方面的情況都是正面的。首先,就監管機構而言,我認為我們在監管備案方面取得了良好進展。我們預計月底前就能完成。

  • And then for you, the S-4 should be filed shortly after we get the Q out. I think the Comptroller of the Currency's public commentary actually was attached to a new charter approval recently, but about accelerating the review of both new charter applications and merger applications is clearly a very positive development and consistent with what we're seeing in other deals.

    然後,對於您來說,S-4 表格應該在我們發布 Q 報告後不久提交。我認為貨幣監理署的公開評論實際上是最近與一項新的特許經營權批准相關的,但加快對新特許經營權申請和合併申請的審查顯然是一個非常積極的進展,與我們在其他交易中看到的情況一致。

  • And all the early engagement that we have done with the regulators has been constructive. So I feel very good about the timeline that we laid out and that Bryan just reiterated.

    我們與監管機構進行的所有早期溝通都具有建設性。所以我對我們制定的時間表以及布萊恩剛才重申的時間表感到非常滿意。

  • I think the feedback from employees and communities has been really positive on both sides of Fifth Third and Comerica. I think the number one question that we're getting is what the name of the Detroit Tiger stadium is going to be at the end of all this. It's a pretty good sign about what we're dealing with. So -- and I think what has run through to folks of this idea that we're going to be able to accomplish things together that neither company was going to be able to do on their own.

    我認為來自員工和社群的回饋對 Fifth Third 和 Comerica 雙方都非常積極。我認為我們收到的最多的問題是,底特律老虎隊體育場最終會叫什麼名字。這很好地表明了我們所面臨的情況。所以——我認為大家已經理解了這一點,那就是我們將能夠共同完成一些任何一家公司單獨都無法完成的事情。

  • There was a -- one of the other CEOs on another call talked a little bit about their philosophy on M&A and what they were interested in and not. I actually think what he said, if I were to abstract a little bit, is really true. Like if you're going to do a deal and you want it to be successful, it either has to be strength paring strength or strength pairing opportunity. You can't have places where both companies are weak, be credit cold as a deal outcome and the beauty of what we're doing with Comerica is the things you need to believe are either strength-strength or strength-opportunity, right?

    在另一個電話會議上,另一位執行長也談到了他們對併購的理念,以及他們感興趣和不感興趣的內容。如果稍微抽像一下來看,我覺得他說的其實很有道理。例如,如果你要達成一筆交易,並且希望它成功,那麼它要嘛必須是優勢對優勢的結合,要嘛必須是優勢對機會的結合。你不能讓兩家公司都實力較弱的地方達成交易,也不能讓交易結果對信用評等很低。我們與 Comerica 合作的妙處在於,你必須相信,要不是優勢對優勢,就是優勢對機遇,對吧?

  • We're great at retail deposit gathering and are already primarily retail deposit funded. So we're going to be able to do a lot there. They have a fabulous granular middle-market loan franchise. We priced more granularity in our commercial business. There's going to be a really nice complement there.

    我們非常擅長吸收零售存款,而且我們的資金主要也來自零售存款。所以我們可以在那裡做很多事情。他們擁有非常出色的、細分市場的中端貸款特許經營權。我們在商業定價中採用了更精細的劃分。那裡會有一句非常好的讚美之詞。

  • We're both strong in different ways in the payments business and wealth management. So there's a strength-strength match. I just think there's a lot positive there. And I think what we are going to try to do, either later this quarter as we turn the beginning of the year is to just provide a little bit more insight to investors on the synergies.

    我們在支付業務和財富管理領域各有優勢。所以雙方實力相當。我覺得這裡面有很多正面的因素。我認為我們將在本季度晚些時候,也就是新年伊始,嘗試向投資者提供更多關於協同效應的見解。

  • We are feeling very good about our ability to get the outcomes. When you look at the synergies as a percentage of Fifth Third and Comerica combined, which is really the right way to look about it, look at it because that's the way that we'll be approaching this exercise. They're quite manageable, and I think well defined.

    我們對取得成果的能力感到非常有信心。當你把協同效應看作是 Fifth Third 和 Comerica 合併後的百分比時(這才是正確的看待方式),因為我們將採用這種方式來進行這項工作。它們很容易管理,而且我認為定義很明確。

  • But just in general, either the reception has been -- it's -- the teams on both sides were small because of the focused diligence effort. So that the first announcement Monday morning was, wow, followed by, I think, in general, a lot of excitement about what we're going to be able to get done together.

    但總的來說,雙方的反應都很好——因為雙方都專注於認真準備,所以團隊規模都很小。所以周一早上第一個公告令人驚嘆,隨後,我認為,總的來說,大家對我們能夠共同完成的事情感到非常興奮。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate that. And as a follow-up, as you said in your opening comments, the great banks distinguish themselves on how they navigate uncertain environments. And this week has certainly been very uncertain for many of the regional banks, including your own. Because of the concerns about this, NDFI lending and the contagion risk. And I frame that with, if you go back to the 1980s and look at what happened in the price of oil in Texas dropping below $10 a barrel that led to the contagion risk of commercial real estate blowing up.

    偉大的。我很感激。隨後,正如您在開場白中所說,偉大的銀行之所以能脫穎而出,是因為它們能夠應對不確定的環境。本週對許多地區性銀行來說無疑充滿不確定性,包括貴行在內。由於對此的擔憂,非金融機構貸款和傳染風險。我的理解是,如果你回顧 20 世紀 80 年代,看看德州石油價格跌破每桶 10 美元,導致商業房地產爆炸的風險蔓延開來,就會明白這一點。

  • In the NDFI portfolio you have, and I know you have the Tricolor issue, but is there a contagion risk in there? And can you just share maybe your thoughts on what's going on with that portfolio and how the market is reacting to it?

    在您的 NDFI 投資組合中,我知道您有 Tricolor 發行的債券,但其中是否有傳染風險?您能否分享一下您對該投資組合現況以及市場對此反應的看法?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I appreciate you being the one to give the history lesson this time around. Normally, I feel like it has to be me on these calls, so thanks for that. And you'll be happy to know I assigned the book, Belly Up as reading to new executives at Fifth Third. So there's a lot of familiarity with the oil patch bust in Texas and Oklahoma around the shop here.

    感謝你這次來給大家上歷史課。通常情況下,我覺得這些電話必須由我來打,所以謝謝你。你會很高興地知道,我已將《Belly Up》這本書指定為 Fifth Third 銀行新任高階主管的閱讀材料。所以,我們店裡很多人都對德州和俄克拉荷馬州的石油危機有所了解。

  • I think one of the challenges we have on the NDFI front is while the Fed's reporting was designed to be helpful here, the categorization is a little bit confusing. So Schroeck is prepared to talk a little bit about maybe an easier way to understand what's in NDFI across the industry and in our portfolio in particular. So I'm going to turn it over to him.

    我認為我們在非存款金融機構方面面臨的挑戰之一是,雖然聯準會的報告旨在提供幫助,但其分類有點令人困惑。因此,施羅克準備談談如何更輕鬆地了解整個產業以及我們投資組合中的 NDFI 情況。所以我打算把它交給他。

  • Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

    Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

  • Yes. It's great question, Gerard. Thank you. I'll start by saying it's a portfolio that we have maintained low levels. We're the lowest -- one of the lowest levels in the FI concentrations of large banks. We're at about 8% of the total portfolio. As Tim said, the core report categories can be pretty generic. So I'll provide a breakdown based on how we review the exposure and the risks contained in that portfolio.

    是的。傑拉德,你問得好。謝謝。首先我要說的是,我們一直將這個投資組合的持股比例維持在較低水準。我們的金融機構持股比例是最低的-在大銀行中屬於最低水準之一。我們目前約佔總投資組合的 8%。正如提姆所說,核心報告類別可以相當籠統。因此,我將根據我們對該投資組合的風險敞口和風險的評估,提供詳細的分析報告。

  • I'll start with REITs. So REITs and other mortgage-related facilities make up 33% of our NDFI balances and represent the largest portion of the portfolio. Represents one of our oldest asset classes within our ABF portfolio. We have processes, procedures, and structures that have been tested through the cycle and include robust monitoring of liens to ensure a priority of our mortgages. We've not had any losses in this portfolio over the last 10 years. So a really solid portion of the portfolio that makes up our largest component.

    我先從房地產投資信託基金(REITs)說起。因此,房地產投資信託基金和其他抵押貸款相關工具占我們非存款金融機構餘額的 33%,是投資組合中最大的部分。代表了我們 ABF 投資組合中最古老的資產類別之一。我們擁有經過週期檢驗的流程、程序和結構,包括對留置權的嚴格監控,以確保我們的抵押貸款得到優先處理。過去10年,我們的投資組合沒有出現任何虧損。因此,這部分投資組合非常穩健,是我們最大的組成部分。

  • Next, about 24% of the NDFI balances are to payment processors, insurance companies, brokerage firms and SBIC firms or funds. Balances in this category are primarily related to large players, well-recognized names and not at all related to the conversations going on in the markets right now.

    其次,約 24% 的非存款金融機構餘額流向支付處理商、保險公司、經紀公司和小型企業投資公司或基金。此類別中的餘額主要與大型參與者、知名人士有關,與當前市場上的討論完全無關。

  • Next would be our subscription facilities at 18% of NDFI funds represent exposure to high net worth individuals and other private capital investors who have capital commitments to these funds. 13% of the balances are loans to private capital warehouse facilities. This category has been an area of rapid growth in the industry. However, we've been really intentional in limiting our growth in these vehicles.

    其次,我們的認購機制佔非存款金融機構(NDFI)基金總額的18%,代表著對高淨值人士和其他對這些基金有資本承諾的私人資本投資者的投資曝險。剩餘13%的餘額是提供給私人資本倉儲機構的貸款。該類別一直是業界成長最快的領域。然而,我們一直有意識地限制我們在這些車型領域的成長。

  • We have one lender where we have a deep relationship. This is a portfolio where we have deep relationships with the lenders, typically lending into one of their portfolio companies and that's -- that relationship orientation is key as we look into that portion of the NDFI portfolio. The smaller share of NDFI balances are loans to non-real estate and non-private credit-related warehouses. It's about 9% of our balances. That category includes our exposure to consumer asset classes.

    我們與一家貸款機構保持著深厚的合作關係。在這個投資組合中,我們與貸款機構建立了深厚的關係,通常會向他們的投資組合公司之一提供貸款,而這種關係導向在我們研究 NDFI 投資組合的這一部分時至關重要。非金融金融機構餘額中較小比例的貸款是發放給非房地產和非私人信貸相關倉庫的貸款。約占我們餘額的9%。此類別包括我們對消費資產的投資。

  • Gerard, you mentioned Tricolor. It's in -- that fraud issue was in that portfolio and has received significant scrutiny as part of our comprehensive review of the portfolio. Given that comprehensive review, we feel very confident in the quality of the remaining clients in that category.

    傑拉德,你提到了三色旗。確實存在欺詐問題——該欺詐問題存在於該投資組合中,並且作為我們對該投資組合進行全面審查的一部分,已受到嚴格審查。經過全面審查,我們對該類別中剩餘客戶的素質非常有信心。

  • We've been overall, and we've been very deliberate in our strategy to keep NDFI portfolio balances diversified. Our disciplined underwriting framework is designed to safeguard portfolio quality by avoiding aggressive advance rates which we see in the marketplace sometimes, overly concentrated collateral pools, inexperienced management teams and structures that do not meet our overall risk appetite.

    總體而言,我們一直非常謹慎地制定策略,以維持非發展金融機構投資組合的多元化。我們嚴謹的承保框架旨在透過避免市場上有時出現的積極貸款率、過度集中的抵押品池、經驗不足的管理團隊以及不符合我們整體風險承受能力的結構來保障投資組合品質。

  • I'll also add, as part of the Comerica, Gerard, you mentioned Comerica, but part of that review -- during our due diligence, we also reviewed Comerica's NDFI portfolio. 70% of Comerica's NDFI portfolio is concentrated in low-risk subscription facilities, which complements our disciplined approach to client selection and portfolio diversification.

    傑拉德,關於Comerica,您剛才提到了它,但我還要補充一點,在盡職調查期間,我們也審查了Comerica的非營利金融機構(NDFI)投資組合。 Comerica的NDFI投資組合中有70%集中在低風險認購工具上,這與我們嚴謹的客戶篩選和投資組合多元化策略相輔相成。

  • Post close, our combined NDFI balances will be 7%, so down from our Fifth Third overall 8%. So we feel really good about the ongoing diversification and overall asset quality of the remaining portfolio.

    交易完成後,我們的 NDFI 合併餘額將為 7%,低於 Fifth Third 整體的 8%。因此,我們對剩餘投資組合的持續多元化和整體資產品質感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

    Ebrahim Poonawala,美國銀行。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • I guess maybe just sticking with credit and outside of the NDFI issues. Just if you -- from a mark-to-market standpoint, are your customers feeling the pain on the commercial side from tariffs and slowing activity? Or are we on the other side actually where things are picking up in terms of folks wanting to make investment decisions, which could drive loan growth? I'm just wondering what seems more likely as we cut through all this noise at the moment here?

    我想或許應該只關注信貸,而不是涉及非金融機構的問題。從市值計價的角度來看,您的客戶是否感受到關稅和經濟活動放緩帶來的商業壓力?或者,我們已經到了另一個階段,人們開始願意做出投資決策,這可能會推動貸款成長?我只是想知道,在目前各種雜音幹擾的情況下,哪種可能性比較大?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I think unfortunately, the answer to that is yes on both points. The close of the quarter, I was out in several of our markets. I got to visit about three dozen of our commercial clients, and the quarter-to-quarter went to the client, we referred to as outlook quote, nauseously optimistic. The tariff uncertainty absolutely continues to weigh on any clients that are exposed.

    是的,很遺憾,我認為這兩個問題的答案都是肯定的。季度末,我去了我們幾個市場。我拜訪了大約三十幾位商業客戶,當季度業績報告(我們稱之為展望報價)給客戶時,樂觀得令人作嘔。關稅的不確定性無疑會繼續給所有受影響的客戶帶來壓力。

  • That said, I would tell you, in general, people are more optimistic than they were in the second quarter, in part because when you add up all of the different tariffs, there is some uniformity across most of the countries that provide our significant sources of the supply chain for folks in materials and manufacturing and construction and the other sectors that are big in our footprint.

    也就是說,總的來說,人們比第二季度更樂觀,部分原因是,當你把所有不同的關稅加起來時,大多數為我們提供重要供應鏈來源的國家都具有一定的統一性,這些供應鏈涉及材料、製造、建築以及其他在我們業務範圍內佔有重要地位的行業。

  • The question mark really has been what would be the -- who would bear the brunt of the tariffs. And I would say now on balance it is a sort of a shared-pain approach here where the supplier, the intermediary, and the customer each absorbing about a third of the increased cost. But the supplier and the intermediaries have also been clear whenever we talk to them that their intent is ultimately to get back to prior margins, which would mean over time, you would see continued price increases as a mechanism to move the cost through.

    真正的問題在於──誰會承擔關稅帶來的最大衝擊。總的來說,我認為這是一種共同承擔損失的方法,供應商、中間商和客戶各自承擔了約三分之一的增加成本。但每當我們與供應商和中間商交談時,他們都明確表示,他們的最終目的是恢復到以前的利潤率,這意味著隨著時間的推移,你會看到價格持續上漲,以此作為將成本轉嫁出去的一種機制。

  • The bright spot here is really, one, that's just the Fed resuming rate costs. I think people have been more optimistic about they're more front-end focused, and I think I would have said, I believe them to be, and they're more optimistic about what the value of a total of 50 basis points to 100 basis points of cuts will have on client demand and also penciling out of their own investments.

    這裡的亮點在於,首先,聯準會恢復升息。我認為人們對前景更加樂觀,因為他們更注重前端,而且我認為我會說,我相信他們確實如此,他們對總共降息 50 到 100 個基點對客戶需求以及他們自身投資的收益的影響更加樂觀。

  • There's also another reality here, which is a lot of our clients when the tariff announcements hit deferred capital expenditures and have been renting, either renting excess space or renting equipment. And we are getting requests now for financing that are reflected in the pipeline in the middle market business, in particular, to support the sort of shift from rent to own. So I think that's quite positive.

    這裡還有另一個現實,那就是當關稅公告出台時,我們的許多客戶都會面臨延期資本支出和租賃的問題,他們要麼租賃多餘的空間,要麼租賃設備。我們現在收到的融資請求反映在中階市場業務的儲備項目中,特別是為了支持從租賃到購買的轉變。所以我認為這是個相當正面的訊號。

  • The other thing that I like seeing is I like our logistics clients, they're a good bellwether on the sort of wheels of the economy turning and we're hearing some logistics clients that there hasn't exactly been a huge rebound, but that the activity has stabilized and is moving on the upswing.

    我喜歡看到的另一件事是,我喜歡我們的物流客戶,他們是經濟運作的良好風向標,我們聽到一些物流客戶說,雖然沒有大幅反彈,但經濟活動已經穩定下來,並且正在向上發展。

  • The folks that are having the most robust demand, obviously, are the people who are either attached to the big government infrastructure investments, things like bridges and roads that are moving forward or the folks that are attached to AI and there's so much demand there because with one of our clients in the concrete business that not only have a strong order book, but the suppliers are driving the pricing as opposed to the buyers driving the pricing in these cases, meaning the margins are really great. And the other end of the spectrum, I think residential construction, auto is still slower.

    顯然,需求最強勁的群體要么是那些參與政府大型基礎設施投資項目(如橋樑和道路等正在推進的項目)的人,要么是那些參與人工智慧項目的人。人工智慧領域的需求非常旺盛,因為我們的一位混凝土行業客戶不僅訂單充足,而且在這種情況下,供應商而不是買家主導價格,這意味著利潤率非常高。另一方面,我認為住宅建設和汽車產業的發展速度仍然較慢。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And I guess just a separate question. I think, back to Comerica. I think if you don't mind spending some time around -- and you talked about this when you announced the deal, just the optionality that Comerica provides. So you've talked about opening the branches in Texas, but Comerica also had a big technology, life science practice and Fifth Third through Newline has been leaning in there.

    那很有幫助。我想再問一個單獨的問題。我想,還是回到科梅里卡吧。我認為,如果你不介意花些時間——你在宣布這筆交易時也談到了這一點——Comerica 提供的選擇權。您之前談過在德克薩斯州開設分行,但 Comerica 也擁有龐大的科技和生命科學業務,而 Fifth Third 透過 Newline 也一直在積極拓展這方面的業務。

  • Just either it's that or either it's double-clicking on the existing footprint and deepening relationships, which may have kind of sidelined a bit over the last decade. What's that potential to unlock and accelerate growth for the combined entity as we look out a year from now?

    要嘛就是這樣,要嘛就是在現有基礎上加倍努力,深化關係,而這在過去十年中可能有點被邊緣化了。展望未來一年,合併後的實體有哪些潛力可以釋放並加速成長?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks for asking on that one. You know, one of my fundamental beliefs is if you don't want to grow by sacrificing pricing or risk discipline, you have to attach yourself to segments of the economy that have a secular tailwind, and the innovation economy is the most profound secular tailwind on the business side of our business in the US.

    是的。謝謝你問這個問題。你知道,我的基本信念之一是,如果你不想透過犧牲定價或風險紀律來發展,你就必須把自己與那些具有長期發展勢頭的經濟領域聯繫起來,而創新經濟就是美國商業領域最深刻的長期發展勢頭。

  • So I am quite excited about the potential on Tech and Life Sciences. Historically, the OCC looked at that business a little bit differently than other people did, but I think the early signals coming out of the OCC are that they want national banks to be able to compete in all markets. And I am optimistic that we're going to be able to do some interesting things there.

    所以我對科技和生命科學領域的潛力感到非常興奮。從歷史上看,OCC 對該業務的看法與其他機構略有不同,但我認為 OCC 發出的早期信號是,他們希望國家銀行能夠在所有市場中競爭。我樂觀地認為,我們能夠在那裡做一些有趣的事情。

  • Michigan is about creating -- finishing off the play in terms of the fortress position in the Midwest. Texas for us is going to be about investment. I think we can continue to add a lot more middle-market bankers. And clearly, the branches are there. California really will be a more business-focused strategy and between Newline, which is a unique asset. And the fact that a lot of the early folks at SVB actually were from a predecessor to Comerica in 1991, we have the credibility having been in that market.

    密西根大學的目標是在中西部地區建立堡壘地位,從而完成比賽。對我們來說,德克薩斯州將是一個投資目的地。我認為我們可以繼續增加更多的中階市場銀行家。很明顯,樹枝都在那裡。加州確實將採取更注重商業的策略,而 Newline 則是一項獨特的資產。而且,SVB 的許多早期員工其實都來自 1991 年 Comerica 的前身,這說明我們在這個市場中擁有信譽。

  • Like there's a really interesting thing to be done there because post SVB, to your point, you have First Citizen's still active, you have JPMorgan active. You have a couple of investment banks active that really are leading on the M&A advisory and capital raising front. And then you have foreign banks. And a fragmented market like that will be -- is good hunting for people like us.

    就像那裡有很多有趣的事情可以做一樣,因為在 SVB 之後,正如你所說,第一公民銀行仍然活躍,摩根大通仍然活躍。目前有幾家投資銀行在併購諮詢和融資領域處於領先地位。然後還有外國銀行。像這樣分散的市場對我們這類人來說,就是很好的狩獵場。

  • The thing that's probably important to remember with Comerica is I think they're running a 4:1 deposit-to-loan ratio 3:1, 4:1 deposit-to-loan ratio in that market. So one of the things we may do very early on is just focus on the ways in which we can leverage Newline to drive even more deposits into the platform as well.

    關於 Comerica,需要記住的重要一點是,我認為他們在該市場上的存款貸款比率為 4:1,或 3:1、4:1。因此,我們很早就可能採取的措施之一,就是專注於如何利用 Newline 為平台帶來更多存款。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

    斯科特·西弗斯,派珀·桑德勒。

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

    R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Tim, so I mean, based on all you've said, I don't get the impression that there's any change or impact to your de novo expansion plans while you go through the Comerica transaction. But I was just hoping you could spend a moment discussing sort of how you balance the planned organic expansion with the large integration, just to make sure nothing sort of slips through the cracks.

    提姆,我的意思是,根據你所說的一切,我感覺在你進行 Comerica 交易期間,你的全新擴張計劃不會有任何變化或影響。但我只是希望您能花點時間討論一下您是如何平衡計劃中的有機擴張和大規模整合的,以確保不會出現任何疏漏。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. No, that's great. So I think you probably have to think about it in two ways. One is just what resources the two sort of separate growth areas of focus draw on. So the de novos are in the Southeast footprint. There is going to be -- there are some really wonderful Comerica bankers in the Southeast, but they don't have a branch presence. So we're not going to have disruption in those markets. So the regional leaders, who have to be on top of driving the daily, weekly, monthly activity in the Southeast, are not going to be disruptive. That's the first thing.

    是的。不,那太好了。所以我覺得你可能需要從兩個方面來考慮這個問題。其中一個問題是,這兩個相對獨立的成長重點領域分別利用哪些資源。所以這些新成立的機構都位於東南部地區。東南部有一些非常優秀的 Comerica 銀行家,但他們沒有設立分行。所以這些市場不會出現混亂。因此,負責推動東南地區日常、每週、每月活動的地區領導人不會造成混亂。這是第一點。

  • Secondarily, the people inside the bank who find the locations, who build the locations, and who run the locations are three different groups. So 85%, as Bryan said, of the locations have been found, meaning that group has the capacity to be able to be looking for locations in Texas. And if you just do the math on the 40 we will have built in the second half of this year, the 60 we just said we're going to build next year, by the time we're at a point where we've got sites and permits pulled, the people who build the locations are going to be freed up from the Southeast to be able to shift their focus onto the acceleration of the openings in Texas.

    其次,銀行內部負責尋找分行、建造分行和營運分行的人員是三個不同的群體。正如布萊恩所說,85% 的地點已經找到,這意味著該組織有能力在德克薩斯州尋找地點。如果你算一下我們今年下半年要建的 40 家,以及我們剛才說的明年要建的 60 家,等到我們選址辦妥、許可證都拿到手的時候,負責這些地方建設的人員就可以從東南部騰出精力,把精力集中在加快德克薩斯州新店開業上。

  • And lastly, because of the scale we have in the Southeast, the draw on human capital and the need to drive recruiting and otherwise to be able to support the new branches is substantially lower because the majority of the folks we put into the de novos are people who have trained up and come through our other retail financial centers. And therefore, the Southeast is sort of on the flywheel of being able to feed itself. So there really is not an overlap in terms of the critical resources to be able to do those two things.

    最後,由於我們在東南地區的規模,對人力資本的需求以及推動招聘和其他支持新分支機構的需求都大大降低,因為我們派往新分支機構的大多數人都是在我們其他零售金融中心接受過培訓並晉升上來的。因此,美國東南部某種程度上實現了自給自足。因此,在完成這兩件事所需的關鍵資源方面,實際上並沒有任何重疊。

  • I think the second thing that's really important as we've talked a lot about the focus on modularity in the way that we drive the retail expansion, that has been the point I'm trying to make, whenever I say we haven't built 100 branches. We build one branch a 100 times. It's a consistent site selection model. It's a consistent retail format, meaning there's no need for additional engineering resources or otherwise.

    我認為第二點非常重要,因為我們一直在討論我們在推動零售擴張時注重模組化,而這正是我一直想表達的觀點,每當我說我們還沒有建立 100 個分店時,我的意思就是這個。我們建造一個分支100次。這是一個一致的選址模型。它採用的是統一的零售模式,這意味著不需要額外的工程資源或其他資源。

  • We have experience at this point with essentially every zoning jurisdiction and set up that you would want to experience in the zoning rules in general in Texas are much easier than they are in the Southeast and certainly than the Midwest.

    目前,我們已經累積了幾乎所有分區管轄區和設置方面的經驗,您可以體驗到德克薩斯州的分區規則總體上比東南部地區要容易得多,當然也比中西部地區要容易得多。

  • So it's not like we're going to have to learn on the fly here. We just have to find the locations, and we have the people to do that. And we've got to build the same thing we've been building, and we know how to do that, obviously. And then the focus really is going to be on making sure that as we do the conversion in Texas. The initial experience that Comerica's existing retail clients have is really, really strong. And then that we are doing the recruiting that we need to do to be able to support the larger base.

    所以我們不需要臨時抱佛腳。我們只需要找到合適的地點,而我們有足夠的人手來完成這項工作。我們必須繼續建造我們一直在建造的東西,而且我們顯然知道該怎麼做。然後,重點將真正放在確保我們在德克薩斯州進行轉換時。Comerica現有零售客戶的初步體驗非常非常好。然後,我們正在進行必要的招募工作,以支援更大的用戶群。

  • Lastly, it's probably worth noting, and I think we were building a fair number of de novos in '19 when we did the MB conversion. We didn't have any problem juggling both of those either.

    最後,值得一提的是,我認為我們在 2019 年進行 MB 改裝時,製造了相當多的全新車型。我們同時兼顧這兩件事也沒有任何問題。

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

    R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And then with regard to Direct Express, you noted that the merger should simplify the transition for the customers. I imagine it really eases things for you all as well. I know there was already a sense of urgency to get the balances moved before the merger was announced. But I was hoping you could just sort of spend a moment, at least at a top level on how -- I presume it's all still going to switch to Fifth Third's rails. How -- what are the sort of the plans for that to take place?

    好的。完美的。關於 Direct Express,您指出合併應該會簡化客戶的過渡流程。我想這對你們大家來說也確實方便了許多。我知道在合併宣布之前,就已經有一種緊迫感,需要盡快調整帳目平衡。但我希望您至少能花一點時間,從宏觀層面談談——我估計這一切最終都會轉移到 Fifth Third 的軌道上。具體來說,有哪些計畫可以實施?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So the transition schedule that we talked about when we announced the Direct Express win that commencing Fifth Third as the administrative agent for new program enrollees in the beginning of the first quarter and then starting the conversion process at the end of the second quarter is still progressing as planned and I feel good about all that.

    是的。因此,我們在宣布贏得 Direct Express 時談到的過渡計劃,即在第一季初由 Fifth Third 銀行作為新專案註冊者的管理代理,然後在第二季末開始轉換過程,目前仍在按計劃進行,我對這一切都感到很滿意。

  • The dynamic here that's most important is that we were going to have to issue out of our own bins or buy Comerica's bins in order to be able to make the card numbers work, right? And when the deal closes, again, provided that it closes as we expect it to and in advance of when we were planning the back-end conversions, the factors that would have driven new card issuance would have been the need to use a different bid range.

    這裡最重要的動態是,我們必須從我們自己的卡槽中發卡,或者購買 Comerica 的卡槽,才能使卡號正常工作,對吧?而當交易完成時(假設交易如我們所預期的那樣完成,並且早於我們計劃的後端轉換),推動新卡發行的因素將是需要使用不同的競價範圍。

  • So we -- Kurt and I had actually talked about Fifth Third buying the bins from Comerica prior to commencing the discussion on the merger itself. We were looking at the possibility of being able to simplify that aspect for the program participants. And clearly, we get the deal closed, the bins are ours, and we'll be able to continue to issue out of them and maintain existing cards.

    所以,我和庫爾特在開始討論合併本身之前,實際上已經討論過第五三銀行從康美銀行收購這些倉庫的事情了。我們正在研究是否有可能簡化專案參與者的這方面流程。顯然,如果我們完成交易,這些倉庫就歸我們所有,我們將能夠繼續從中發行卡片並維護現有的卡片。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

    馬南‧戈薩利亞,摩根士丹利。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • You touched on Direct Express right now. I was wondering if you could talk about just opportunity there on the income statement and the contribution there. I think on the CMA deck, you adjusted for about $110 million in NII. But can you touch on what the full opportunity is there? And how do you expect that to grow, the fee contribution that you expect maybe the expense add on there? Any additional color there would be helpful.

    你剛才提到了Direct Express。我想請您談談損益表上的機會以及由此產生的貢獻。我認為在 CMA 的簡報中,你們調整了大約 1.1 億美元的 NII。但您能否談談其中蘊含的全部機會?那麼,您預計這部分收入將如何成長?您預計的費用貢獻是否會增加?或者說,這部分支出是否會增加?如果能添加一些其他顏色就更好了。

  • Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, happy to talk, Manan. The big question when we announced the program was really about the win of the program was about the timing of when we would see the balance transitions over and that was one of the reasons why we said we'd provide more information in the fourth quarter.

    是的,我很樂意和你聊聊,馬南。當我們宣布該計劃時,最大的問題實際上是該計劃能否成功的關鍵在於何時才能看到收支平衡的轉變,這也是我們說將在第四季度提供更多資訊的原因之一。

  • Obviously, the Comerica transaction provides a lot more certainty around how the balances will hit the third's balance sheet. On average, it's about $3.5 billion of DDA that will obviously provide a lot of funding benefits associated with our balance sheet.

    顯然,Comerica 的交易為第三方資產負債表的餘額將如何變化提供了更大的確定性。平均而言,約有 35 億美元的 DDA 將為我們的資產負債表帶來許多融資方面的效益。

  • From a fee perspective, the way to think about it is there's probably a 15% to 20% type margin on the fees relative to the expense load. And you're probably looking at something that is in the range of $100 million to $110 million type expense level that's primarily related to the processing costs and the fees, there's a gross up on the fees associated with the interchange that comes through.

    從費用角度來看,可以這樣理解:費用相對於支出而言,可能存在 15% 到 20% 的利潤空間。您可能看到的支出水準在 1 億美元到 1.1 億美元之間,主要與處理成本和費用有關,以及與交易相關的費用總額。

  • We do have some revenue share with our processing partners. That's why there will be a fairly direct link on that. And then the growth for us is primarily going to be related to transaction activity in the future as well as growth in the programs.

    我們與支付處理夥伴之間會有一些收入分成。所以才會有這麼個比較直接的連結。而未來我們的成長主要將與交易活動以及項目的成長有關。

  • And we are excited about the potential for incremental growth in the program due to the executive order trying to limit more -- to limit the amount of paper checks that are issued, and this is the government's program for electronic disbursements. So we do believe there's even more upside in the program over time as the government continues to try to find efficiencies in its disbursement processes.

    我們對該計劃的逐步成長潛力感到興奮,因為行政命令試圖進一步限制——限制簽發的紙本支票的數量,而這是政府的電子支付計劃。因此,我們相信隨著政府不斷努力提高撥款流程的效率,該計劃的後續發展潛力更大。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Maybe if I can pivot over to credit. Excluding the credit that you called out, I think NCOs were about 52 basis points this quarter, and you're guiding for about 40 basis points in the fourth quarter. I know you talked about some of the sentiment and what you're hearing, but can you speak to what gives you the confidence that NCOs will step down from here? And how we should think about that going into 2026?

    那很有幫助。也許我可以轉型做信貸業務。撇開您提到的信貸因素不談,我認為本季淨營業利潤率約為 52 個基點,而您預計第四季度約為 40 個基點。我知道你談到了一些民意和你聽到的聲音,但你能說說是什麼讓你相信士官們會從此退役嗎?那麼,展望2026年,我們該如何看待這個問題呢?

  • Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

    Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

  • Yes. It's Greg. Great question. So I look at it in a couple of different ways. One of the leading indicators, right, the criticized assets, and as Bryan mentioned, our criticized assets are down again 4% this quarter. I also look at predictability. We've been -- we've talked over the last couple of quarters about NPAs coming down in that 40% range. They were 14% this quarter, 30% over the last two quarters, and we have good visibility tracking to that 40% at the end of the year. We're not seeing NPA surprises. The losses we're taking are reserved. So those are all leading indicators.

    是的。是格雷格。問得好。所以我從幾個不同的角度來看這個問題。其中一個領先指標,對吧,就是受批評的資產,正如布萊恩所提到的,我們的受批評資產本季再次下降了 4%。我也會考慮可預測性。過去幾季我們一直在討論不良貸款率下降到 40% 左右的問題。本季為 14%,過去兩季為 30%,我們有很好的預期,到年底將達到 40%。我們沒有看到NPA出現意外狀況。我們承擔的損失已預留。所以這些都是領先指標。

  • I think we're continuing to do a good job on getting out ahead of some of these problems and dealing with them timely. So I feel good about that. The consumer portfolio continues to perform very, very well. 90-day delinquencies are just 6 basis points below even pre-COVID levels. Consumer loss rates stable at 52 basis points. That's consistent with our 10-year average. We noted the solar portfolio is improving, as we said on prior calls. So the portfolio is playing out as we have predicted over the last couple of quarters. And I still feel really good.

    我認為我們在提前發現並及時處理這些問題方面做得很好。所以我覺得挺好的。消費貸款組合表現依然非常出色。 90天逾期率僅比新冠疫情前水準低6個基點。消費者損失率穩定在 52 個基點。這與我們過去10年的平均值一致。正如我們在之前的電話會議中所說,我們注意到太陽能投資組合正在改善。所以,該投資組合的表現正如我們過去幾季所預測的那樣。我感覺依然很好。

  • I mean, excluding the Tricolor fraud-related issue, I still expect full year charge-offs to land in the midpoint of our original guidance range and assuming no significant changes in the environment. Based on what I know today, I continue to be very confident that the commercial loss rates return to that mid 30 basis points, 35 basis point range in the fourth quarter.

    我的意思是,撇開 Tricolor 詐欺相關問題不談,我仍然預計全年核銷額將落在我們最初指導範圍的中點,前提是環境沒有重大變化。根據我目前掌握的信息,我仍然非常有信心,第四季度商業損失率將回落到 30 到 35 個基點的區間。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And then if I just add, since there are some names that have been the news. We have no relationship with Kantor. We did have a relationship historically with first brands, but we exited it in a handful of years ago because of some issues that were identified during the collateral reviews we were doing. And that only residual exposure there is $51,000 of operating leases, so $51,000 secured Greg tells me by a forklift and a printer.

    是的。然後,如果我再補充一點,因為有些名字已經變成新聞了。我們與 Kantor 沒有任何關係。我們過去確實與一些知名品牌有過合作關係,但幾年前,由於我們在進行相關審查時發現了一些問題,我們終止了這種合作關係。而那裡僅剩的剩餘風險敞口是 51,000 美元的經營租賃,所以 51,000 美元由 Greg 用一台堆高機和一台印表機擔保。

  • I asked if the printer had wheels, he said no. So if necessary, we're going to use the forklift to get the printer out of there. But they're just -- that's the other thing here in terms of confidence is there's no exposure to the names that are out in the market.

    我問印表機有沒有輪子,他說沒有。所以如有必要,我們將使用堆高機將印表機運出去。但就信心而言,還有一點要注意,那就是他們沒有接觸到市場上那些股票。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

    Ken Usdin,自主研究。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about the NII trajectory and the helpers that you have. Can you just give us an update about the fixed rate repricing that you have and what you're seeing now given the change in the curve in terms of the benefits and how long out you have line of sight on to that?

    我想請您談談NII的發展軌跡以及您擁有的助手們。能否請您介紹一下您目前的固定利率重新定價情況,以及考慮到利率曲線的變化,您現在看到的收益情況,以及您對未來一段時間的預期?

  • Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Thanks, Ken. Great question. We continue to feel good about fixed rate asset repricing. That's something that was a contributor this quarter as well as for most of the year. We have seen a decent compression in the yield curve this quarter. In particular, two- to three-year point in the curve has come down about 40 basis points since we talked with you as part of July earnings. And that obviously has a decent impact on the indirect auto business, which has been a big driver of our fixed rate asset repricing.

    是的。謝謝你,肯。問得好。我們依然看好固定利率資產重新定價。這也是本季以及今年大部分時間的影響因素。本季殖利率曲線出現了明顯的壓縮。特別是,自從我們在 7 月財報發布會上與您交談以來,兩到三年期殖利率曲線的點位已經下降了約 40 個基點。這顯然對間接汽車業務產生了相當大的影響,而間接汽車業務一直是我們固定利率資產重新定價的主要驅動力。

  • We're still seeing $4 billion to $5 billion a quarter of fixed rate assets that repricing and it's picking -- we're picking up now around 100 basis points, and we expect that 100 basis points to persist basically through the end of the next year -- end of this year and into mid to late next year. So we do feel good about the trajectory that we're seeing there, even with some of the compression that we've seen from a curve perspective.

    我們仍然看到每季有 40 億至 50 億美元的固定利率資產進行重新定價,而且這種趨勢正在加劇——我們現在正在加劇大約 100 個基點,我們預計這 100 個基點將基本持續到明年年底——今年年底到明年年中後期。所以,即使從曲線角度來看,我們看到了一些壓縮,但我們對目前的發展軌跡感到滿意。

  • And then honestly, for 2026, when you think about NII trajectory, the Comerica transaction just has such a meaningful impact on the overall balance sheet positioning. And as we've talked as part of that announcement, fairly decent pickup from a profitability perspective. And the NII is going to be a good component of that as we work ahead on bringing our diverse funding capabilities to that platform as well as positioning the balance sheet for -- and using our fixed rate loan origination platforms to position the balance sheet for better long-term performance. And so we feel very good about the trajectory that we're on.

    坦白說,就 2026 年而言,當你考慮 NII 軌跡時,Comerica 交易對整體資產負債表狀況的影響非常顯著。正如我們在公告中提到的,從獲利能力的角度來看,這是一個相當不錯的成長。淨利息收入 (NII) 將成為其中的一個重要組成部分,因為我們將努力將我們多元化的融資能力引入該平台,並調整資產負債表,以便利用我們的固定利率貸款發放平台,實現更好的長期業績。因此,我們對目前的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。

  • We are heading into next year intentionally running a little bit heavier on cash and a little bit more balance on from a deposit perspective because we do want to be in a position to take care of some of the funding things that they have had to do as they have managed through this environment the last couple of years. And so you are going to see us a little bit more balance on from a retail perspective.

    我們計劃明年有意增加現金儲備,並在存款方面保持更平衡的策略,因為我們希望能夠幫助他們解決過去幾年在應對這種環境時不得不處理的一些融資問題。因此,從零售角度來看,你會看到我們更加平衡一些。

  • We've always been very focused on keeping our retail contribution to be the primary funder of our balance sheet. And that's something that we'll want to continue to do as we bring the Comerica balance sheet on board.

    我們一直非常注重維持零售業務作為資產負債表的主要資金來源。隨著 Comerica 資產負債表的整合,我們將繼續這樣做。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • Yes. Great. And that was actually dovetail to my follow-up, which was just -- it's been great to see the non-interest-bearing growth over the last couple of quarters and still a little increase in the IBD costs. So to that point you just made, and given that we're on the next leg down of the rate cycle, what does that put us into context in terms of what you're expecting to see in terms of deposit betas on the IBD side?

    是的。偉大的。這實際上與我的後續工作不謀而合,那就是——很高興看到過去幾季非計息收入的成長,但投資銀行部門的成本仍然略有增加。針對您剛才提出的觀點,鑑於我們正處於利率週期的下一個下行階段,這對於您預期在投資銀行部門的存款貝塔係數方面看到什麼影響?

  • Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. For the next -- I would tell you for the next couple of quarters, the fourth quarter and into the first quarter, we're going to be a little less aggressive than we have been. We delivered a low 60s beta on the first 100 basis points of cuts prior to the Comerica transaction. I had high confidence that we were going to be able to deliver kind of mid-40s to low 50s beta, which would have kept us in a good position.

    是的。接下來——我可以告訴你們,接下來的幾個季度,包括第四季度和第一季度,我們的策略會比之前稍微保守一些。在 Comerica 交易之前,我們在前 100 個基點的降息中實現了 60 左右的 beta 值。我當時很有信心,我們能夠交付 40 多到 50 出頭的 beta 版本,這將使我們處於有利地位。

  • But given the point of trying to stay balanced on from a retail perspective because we want to work ahead and be in a position to deal with some high-cost funding that's on their balance sheet. That will be a very accretive transaction for us in 2026 when we utilize the optionality that our funding position will give us next year to deal with some issues on the combined balance sheet.

    但考慮到從零售角度來看,我們需要保持平衡,因為我們希望提前做好準備,並有能力應對資產負債表上的一些高成本融資。2026 年,我們將利用我們明年的資金狀況所帶來的選擇權來處理合併資產負債表上的一些問題,這將是一筆非常有利於我們的交易。

  • We're going to run a little bit lower on our betas from here. So I would expect that for the fourth quarter and the first quarter for our betas to be in the more like the 30% range. And so that's a little bit of the rationale when we talk about kind of a stable to up 1% NII forecast for the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter is taking that into context.

    從現在開始,我們的測試版版本會稍微降低一些。因此,我預計第四季和第一季的 beta 值將更接近 30% 的水平。所以,這就是我們對第四季淨利息收入預測保持穩定或成長 1% 的部分原因。第四季是將這種情況考慮在內。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris McGratty, KBW.

    克里斯·麥格拉蒂,KBW。

  • Sean Cohan - Analyst

    Sean Cohan - Analyst

  • Sean Cohan, actually on for Chris McGratty. Question just on the expense growth expectations. You touched on near-term expense growth elevating as you continue to invest in the branch expansion. But just longer term, how should we think about operating leverage from here?

    肖恩·科漢實際上是代替克里斯·麥格拉蒂上場的。僅詢問有關費用增長預期的問題。您提到,隨著您繼續投資分公司擴張,近期支出成長將會加快。但從長遠來看,我們該如何看待目前的經營槓桿效應呢?

  • And maybe more specifically, how you think about organic expense growth in terms of balancing places that require continued investment, such as payments as well as the branch expansion, obviously, in Texas as well as Southeast versus kind of like the synergies and the offsets from both the merger as well as prior AI expense?

    更具體地說,您如何看待有機支出成長,即如何在需要持續投資的領域(例如支付以及在德克薩斯州和東南部的分支機構擴張)與合併帶來的協同效應和抵消作用之間取得平衡?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • A lot of good questions embedded in there. So a couple of things. One, the branch expense is seasonal for us. So we -- I think we said we were going to get about 50 branches opened this year. So 40 of the 50 happen in the second half of the year. That's part of the reason that you see the ramp in the fourth quarter as half of the branches in total get opened in the fourth quarter alone.

    這裡面蘊含著很多好問題。有兩件事。第一,分行費用對我們來說有季節性。所以——我想我們說過今年要開設大約 50 家分店。所以這 50 件事中有 40 件發生在下半年。這也是為什麼你在第四季會看到斜坡式升降機出現的原因之一,因為總共有一半的分行都是在第四季開放的。

  • And that's actually an improvement for us. It used to be 85% or 90% of the branches got opened in the fourth quarter. So I wouldn't read too much into the fourth quarter as a point of extrapolation into the future. We do believe we have the ability to continue to drive operating leverage out of the company. It's been convenience that others have offered 2027 as a medium-term guidance range because that corresponds with the numbers that we provided for the combination of Fifth Third and Comerica.

    這對我們來說實際上是一種進步。過去,85%或90%的分行都是在第四季開設的。因此,我不認為應該過度將第四季的數據作為預測未來的依據。我們相信我們有能力繼續提高公司的經營槓桿。其他人將 2027 年作為中期指導範圍,這很方便,因為這與我們為 Fifth Third 和 Comerica 合併提供的數字相符。

  • And the outlook there was 19% RoTCE or better and getting down to the low to mid-50s, call it, 53% in terms of the efficiency ratio, and we trended 54% this quarter, the guide implies 54% for next quarter. So there is continued operating leverage in order to get there. And that's inclusive of the sorts of investments we're making in the business.

    而預期是 RoTCE 達到 19% 或更高,效率比率降至 50% 左右,我們本季的趨勢是 54%,暗示下個季度也將達到 54%。因此,需要持續的經營槓桿才能實現目標。這其中也包括我們對業務的各種投資。

  • I mean we bought a payment software company in this past quarter that feathered into the run rate. I think what's worked for us here has been this belief that we need to fund something on the order of half of everything that we want to invest back into the business through finding other savings opportunities.

    我的意思是,我們在上個季度收購了一家支付軟體公司,該公司逐步融入了日常營運。我認為我們在這裡取得成功的原因在於,我們堅信我們需要籌集資金,將我們想要再投資於業務的資金的一半左右用於尋找其他節省資金的機會。

  • That's principally been automation, leveraging technology to drive people costs down and to improve scalability. And those investments are going to be super helpful, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks as we integrate Comerica. But it's allowed us to just look at it over five years.

    這主要體現在自動化方面,利用科技降低人力成本並提高可擴展性。正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,這些投資將對我們整合 Comerica 起到極大的幫助。但這讓我們能夠用五年的時間來檢視這個問題。

  • I mean I think we've bought now five fintech companies during that period in time. We built more branches than anybody other than JPMorgan during that period of time. We've been growing the sales force by 5% to 10% across the regional footprint during that period of time, making big investments in tech platforms and otherwise. And despite all that, we've had, I think, something that's on the order of the lowest cumulative expense growth across our peer group.

    我的意思是,我認為在那段時間裡,我們已經收購了五家金融科技公司。在那段時間裡,我們開設的分店數量僅次於摩根大通。在此期間,我們在整個區域範圍內將銷售團隊擴大了 5% 到 10%,並在技術平台和其他方面進行了大量投資。儘管如此,我認為,我們在同行中實現了最低的累積支出成長率。

  • So we are going to continue to invest in the company. I'm super excited, as I've said, about the opportunities to invest into places like Texas and scaling the verticals like National Dealer Services and pairing that with the auto business, in tech and life sciences, like Ebrahim asked earlier. But we also expect ourselves to have to pay as we go in addition to asking investors to back in. And that's why you get the operating leverage at the end of the day.

    因此我們將繼續投資該公司。正如我之前所說,我非常興奮,因為有機會投資像德克薩斯州這樣的地方,並擴大像全國經銷商服務這樣的垂直領域,並將其與汽車業務、科技和生命科學相結合,就像易卜拉欣之前問的那樣。但我們也預計,除了需要投資人追加投資外,我們還需要邊做邊投入資金。這就是為什麼最終你能獲得經營槓桿的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

    麥克梅奧,富國證券。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • I have kind of one negative question, one positive question. So the negative question, if you could just double click on the Tricolor category. So I think it was 9% of your total NDFI. Just elaborate more on what's contained in that category.

    我有一個反方向的問題,一個正方向的問題。所以,否定的問題是,您是否可以雙擊三色類別。所以我認為它佔你們總NDFI的9%。請詳細說明該類別包含哪些內容。

  • And the positive question is you talked about the team that will be in charge of the integration of Comerica. You have Jamie. You also don't -- I haven't heard you talk about Darren Keeney either. I almost forget that he's there, you're keeping him like lock the deposit somewhere, but you have a lot of talent at the top of the house. I'd like to hear how they'll be deployed for the integration, but first, more elaboration on the Tricolor category.

    而積極的問題是,您談到了負責 Comerica 整合的團隊。你有傑米。你也沒——我也沒聽你提起過達倫·基尼。我幾乎忘了他的存在,你把他留在那裡就像把定金鎖在某個地方一樣,但你高層有很多才華橫溢的人。我想了解它們將如何部署以進行集成,但首先,請對 Tricolor 類別進行更詳細的說明。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I would go to say we'll start there because now I'm going to go get Darren out of his office and demonstrate that he is free to move around the building. Go ahead, Greg.

    是的,我會說我們就從那裡開始,因為我現在要把達倫從他的辦公室叫出來,向他證明他可以自由地在大樓裡走動。請繼續,格雷格。

  • Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

    Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

  • So Mike, it's primarily consumer asset classes. So consumer auto, consumer finance companies is the majority of that 9%. And there's a reason why it's our lowest category from a concentration standpoint as we're watching that consumer very, very closely, clearly impacted with higher interest rates, unemployment, inflation, et cetera. But that's primarily what makes up that category.

    所以麥克,它主要指的是消費性資產。因此,消費汽車、消費金融公司佔這 9% 的大部分。從集中度角度來看,這是我們最低的類別,這是有原因的,因為我們正在非常密切地關注這個消費者群體,他們顯然受到了高利率、失業率、通貨膨脹等因素的影響。但這就是該類別的主要構成要素。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And it's dominated by relationships with the largest players, specifically long tenure in their categories. But having been through all these names myself, as I mentioned at Barclays, I find confidence that Tricolor's unfortunately, is unique there in terms of being present relative to the discipline that exists in the rest of that book.

    是的。而且,這種格局主要由與產業巨頭的關係所構成,特別是與這些巨頭在各自領域內的長期合作關係。但正如我在巴克萊銀行提到的那樣,我自己也研究過所有這些名字,我確信,不幸的是,Tricolor 在那本書中作為一家公司,其存在感與其他公司相比是獨一無二的。

  • On -- yes. I think we have an excellent team. And I think Comerica is bringing really excellent executives to the table in terms of what we're doing here. So the integration of Advisory Council is jointly staffed. Jamie is on point from Fifth Third, Megan Burkhart from Comerica, their Chief Administrative Officer from Comerica. Folks like Darren and Pete Saftek from Comerica, the IT leaders, folks from operations and otherwise all involved here.

    開啟——是的。我認為我們擁有一支非常優秀的團隊。我認為,Comerica 為我們在這裡所做的事情帶來了非常優秀的管理團隊。因此,諮詢委員會的整合工作由雙方共同負責。來自 Fifth Third 銀行的 Jamie 和來自 Comerica 銀行的 Megan Burkhart,以及 Comerica 銀行的首席行政官,都對此事非常關注。像 Comerica 的 Darren 和 Pete Saftek 這樣的人,IT 領導,營運人員以及其他所有參與其中的人。

  • Darren, it is focused -- Darren's worked very closely with Peter in thinking through how we integrate the middle-market bankers, Darren's responsibility here as regional banking. So Darren's head wealth management, middle market and business banking, Peter will take on wealth management. Darren is taking on the expanded middle market business banking side of the equation.

    Darren,他很專注——Darren 與 Peter 密切合作,思考如何整合中階市場銀行家,Darren 的職責是負責區域銀行業務。因此,達倫的財富管理、中階市場和商業銀行業務負責人彼得將接手財富管理業務。達倫正在負責拓展中端市場商業銀行業務。

  • So they have been working through key roles, taking opportunities where we're allowed to do so to meet people and to make sure that everybody knows that if you talk to customers, you're in good shape in terms of being able to look forward to a broader quality product set and more capacity to invest in growth.

    因此,他們一直在擔任關鍵角色,抓住一切機會與人見面,並確保每個人都知道,如果你與客戶交談,你就處於有利地位,可以期待更廣泛的優質產品系列和更大的成長投資能力。

  • The other thing I'd tell you, I'm really optimistic about is we have a really outstanding IT organization. The IT group here has essentially entirely been reconstituted since 2018 or 2019. It is led by people who were Fortune 150 CIOs, people who founded businesses that ended up being taken out by major players in information security and people who have actual engineering background.

    還有一點我非常樂觀,那就是我們擁有一個非常優秀的IT團隊。自 2018 年或 2019 年以來,這裡的 IT 團隊基本上已經完全重組。它的領導者包括曾擔任財富 150 強企業資訊長的人、創辦過最終被資訊安全領域巨頭收購的企業的人,以及擁有實際工程背景的人。

  • So they're not vendor managers or IT maintenance people. They're people who understand architecture and software engineering and otherwise, that's been a big part of the success. Jude Shramm, our CIO is the one that's led the value streams work over the course of the past several years inside the company that has helped to drive all the savings.

    所以他們不是供應商經理,也不是IT維護人員。他們既懂建築,也懂軟體工程等等,這正是他們成功的重要原因。我們的資訊長 Jude Shramm 在過去幾年裡領導了公司內部的價值流工作,這幫助推動了所有成本節約。

  • So there's a really good bench of people around the table here to ensure that we retain what is great about both companies and execute a seamless conversion and get the costs out as we need to.

    因此,我們在這裡聚集了一群非常優秀的人才,以確保我們保留兩家公司的優點,實現無縫過渡,並按需降低成本。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • And now that the dust has settled a little bit, one challenge that you think you're really going to have to gear up for that you -- it's more in your face and you may be underappreciated or are you just like, hey, this is -- we're going to have to do this right and one positive that you said, hey, this might be better than we thought.

    現在塵埃落定,你覺得你真的需要做好準備應對一個挑戰,那就是——它更加迫在眉睫,你可能會被低估,或者你會想,嘿,這是——我們必須把這件事做好,而你所說的一個積極方面是,嘿,這可能比我們想像的要好。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think the challenge is, we're set -- Comerica had a public consent order attached to the trust business and specifically a conversion they did there. I would tell you that's -- I don't perceive that to be like a challenge in the sense that I'm worried about being able to get it done, but it's clearly priority 1 is ensuring that we have the trust business on stable footing, as part of getting this conversion done because we like the businesses that they're in.

    是的。我認為挑戰在於,我們已經準備就緒——Comerica 的信託業務,特別是他們在那裡進行的轉換,都附帶了一項公開同意令。我會告訴你,我不認為這是一個挑戰,因為我並不擔心能否完成它,但很明顯,首要任務是確保我們的信託業務處於穩定狀態,這是完成轉型的一部分,因為我們喜歡他們所從事的業務。

  • I think they're quite complementary to the segment of the market that we serve in our custody business. But we got to get that work done expeditiously and well. So that remains a big point number one.

    我認為它們與我們託管業務所服務的細分市場非常互補。但我們必須迅速而出色地完成這項工作。所以,這還是第一大要點。

  • I think the thing that I'm probably most optimistic about is, we have a lot of former Coamericans here. They have a lot of former Fifth Third-ers there. They seem to have done well in both places. I can speak to the former Comericans that are here. They've been big parts of the way that we've driven the growth in the expansion markets. They have leadership roles here in payments and have led businesses like business banking, corporate social responsibility.

    我覺得我最樂觀的一點是,我們這裡有很多前美洲裔美國人。那裡有很多以前在第五三銀行工作過的人。他們似乎在這兩個地方都做得很好。我可以和這裡的前美國人談談。它們在我們推動擴張市場成長的過程中發揮了重要作用。他們在支付領域擔任領導角色,並領導商業銀行、企業社會責任等業務。

  • Otherwise, like so I'm most excited about our ability to unlock the Comerica bankers now that we can provide a broader funding base, and there isn't competition from an investment perspective on needing to invest in sort of LFI level control environment. That is the thing that -- the more I talk to folks, the more you see, wow, there are a lot of good ideas here. There are places where we have the ability to grow that they just -- there was an inherent limit because they were trying to balance more priorities than we'll need to balance as a combined company.

    否則,我最興奮的是,我們現在能夠提供更廣泛的資金基礎,從而能夠釋放 Comerica 銀行家的潛力,而且從投資角度來看,也不存在需要在 LFI 級別的控制環境下進行投資的競爭。這就是關鍵所在——我和大家交流越多,就越會發現,哇,這裡有很多好點子。有些領域我們有能力發展,但他們卻有固有的限制,因為他們試圖平衡的優先事項比我們合併後的公司需要平衡的還要多。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • So it sounds like some ex-frenemies will become colleagues that have worked together before.

    聽起來,一些曾經的冤家會變成同事,他們以前也一起工作過。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, that's right. From frenemies to friends again, maybe. There we go.

    是的,沒錯。或許他們能從亦敵亦友的關係重歸於好。好了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

    彼得溫特,D.A.戴維森。

  • Peter Winter - Analyst

    Peter Winter - Analyst

  • Just at Barclays, following the Tricolor announcement, you mentioned that you were going to take a step back, look at the processes to see if you could have done anything differently. And I'm just curious what you discovered and that you need to make any changes.

    在巴克萊銀行,在三色旗事件宣布之後,你提到你會退後一步,檢視流程,看看是否可以採取不同的做法。我只是好奇你發現了什麼,以及你是否需要做出任何改變。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks for asking that. Greg will give you some detail there.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。格雷格會在那裡給你詳細說明。

  • Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

    Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

  • Yes. So obviously, a lot of time given the circumstances that we've spent, while we still think it's an isolated event, we treated it with the seriousness that it deserves. We completed a comprehensive review of that entire asset back finance portfolio, traced the cash flows, collateral movements in and out of our facilities and then into securitizations. The work included a full inspection of our processes, our procedures, our policies, underwriting, portfolio monitoring, it was an end-to-end inspection by our leaders.

    是的。所以很明顯,鑑於我們所處的環境,雖然我們仍然認為這是一起孤立事件,但我們仍然以應有的嚴肅態度對待了它。我們對整個資產支持融資組合進行了全面審查,追蹤了現金流、抵押品在我們融資工具中的流入和流出,以及最終進入證券化市場的流動。這項工作包括對我們的流程、程序、政策、承保、投資組合監控進行全面檢查,這是由我們領導者進行的端到端檢查。

  • We've identified a couple of things that we'll start to implement from an enhancement standpoint, and we'll continue to do that, and we'll continue to reinforce some of the ongoing monitoring that needs to take place in that space.

    我們已經確定了一些需要從改進的角度開始實施的事情,我們將繼續這樣做,並將繼續加強該領域需要進行的持續監控。

  • Couple of things I would point out is 92% of the ABF exposure through bankruptcy remote SPV securitization structures. They have non-recourse; they're self-liquidating. They're underwritten through the structure, through advance rates to a BBB or better, so investment-grade type of underwriting. We also engaged a third-party firm to validate 120,000 vehicle identification number of bins tied to our consumer collateral or our loan collateral.

    有兩點需要指出,92% 的 ABF 風險暴露是透過破產隔離的特殊目的實體證券化結構來實現的。它們沒有追索權;它們會自行清算。它們透過結構進行承保,透過預付利率達到 BBB 或更高,因此是投資等級承保。我們還聘請了一家第三方公司來驗證與我們的消費者抵押品或貸款抵押品相關的 120,000 個車輛識別號碼。

  • The results were conclusive, 99.99% of events have been verified as valid with only two exceptions. We're tracking those two exceptions down.

    結果確鑿無疑,99.99% 的事件都被證實有效,只有兩起例外。我們正在追蹤這兩個例外情況。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • As in two bins, two cars.

    就像兩個垃圾桶,兩輛車。

  • Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

    Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

  • The overall exercise to your question, confirms that we still feel very good about the overall portfolio. This is a portfolio that's not had losses in the past in any meaningful way. Clearly, the Tricolor was a broad -- there are things that we're going to have to do a little differently going forward based on the inspection. But based on the inspection, the house-to-house service that we did, I still feel very good about the portfolio.

    針對您的問題,我們的整體評估結果證實,我們仍然對整體投資組合感到非常滿意。這是一個過去從未出現過任何實質虧損的投資組合。顯然,三色旗是一個廣泛的概念——根據檢查結果,我們今後有些事情需要做出一些改變。但根據我們的檢查和挨家挨戶的服務,我對投資組合仍然感到非常滿意。

  • Peter Winter - Analyst

    Peter Winter - Analyst

  • Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. With the Comerica deal, you'll have roughly $290 billion in assets and become a Category III bank. Does that happen when the deal closes? Or is it kind of a fourth quarter average before you become Category III? And does that involve entail additional expenses and maybe risk management controls?

    知道了。然後還有一個簡短的後續問題。透過與 Comerica 的交易,您將擁有約 2900 億美元的資產,並成為一家三級銀行。交易完成後就會發生這種情況嗎?或者說,這是進入三級之前的第四季平均值?這是否意味著需要額外的費用,以及可能需要採取風險管理措施?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. We -- so at the end of last year, we've actually been going through our process for some time in terms of preparing for Category II readiness. This is something that we actually kicked off back in when we were in the process of March Madness associated with First Republic of making sure that we really understood what that path looks like.

    是的。所以,從去年年底開始,我們實際上已經進行了一段時間的準備工作,以達到二級防災標準。實際上,早在我們與第一共和銀行一起參與「瘋狂三月」活動時,我們就開始著手這件事,以確保我們真正了解這條道路的走向。

  • And at the end of last year, we actually hired a third-party to come in and do a CAT III readiness assessment for us and to help us build out the compliance work plan as we were going to head down either or an organic path or for some reason, the transaction were to occur that would have accelerated it. So we have a good sense of what that path looks like and the costs associated with it.

    去年年底,我們聘請了第三方機構來為我們進行 CAT III 準備情況評估,並幫助我們制定合規工作計劃,因為我們當時打算走一條自然發展的道路,或者由於某種原因,發生了一筆交易,這將加速這一進程。因此,我們對這條路的走向以及與之相關的成本都有了比較清楚的認識。

  • Clearly, there's certain things we will have to do some investments in terms of enhancing some reporting capabilities, things like 2052A, the frequency of reporting and the time turnaround of that reporting accelerates from a T+10 reporting to T+2. There's some new credit reporting that we'll have to do. But all of those things are known and very manageable.

    顯然,在某些方面,我們需要進行一些投資,以增強一些報告能力,例如 2052A,報告頻率和報告週轉時間從 T+10 報告加快到 T+2。我們需要進行一些新的信用報告工作。但所有這些都是已知的,而且非常容易處理。

  • What's interesting about this process is that there are a number of different CAT III requirements, and they're actually all discussed with regulators and agreed to the conversion, and compliance timeline has agreed with regulators on a line item by line item perspective on the individual requirements. 2052A reporting being one of the first.

    這個過程的有趣之處在於,CAT III 有許多不同的要求,實際上所有這些要求都與監管機構進行了討論,並就轉換達成了一致,合規時間表也與監管機構就各項要求逐項達成了一致。2052A 報告是最早的報告之一。

  • So those are all things that we're working through right now, all contemplated in the financial numbers that we've provided. And from a cost perspective will be manageable for us.

    所以這些都是我們目前正在努力解決的問題,也都反映在我們提供的財務數據中。從成本角度來看,這對我們來說是可以負擔的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erika Najarian, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • So just wanted to make sure that we're taking away the right message from a funding strategy perspective. Tim, it really struck me when you did the Comerica announcement conference call that you said that it was funding that was really preventing them from fully realizing their growth potential.

    所以,我只是想確保從融資策略的角度來看,我們理解的資訊是正確的。提姆,當你主持 Comerica 公告電話會議時,你說資金問題真正阻礙了他們充分發揮成長潛力,這讓我印象非常深刻。

  • And then Bryan noted a 30% deposit beta from here. As we think about the go forward, both from a stand-alone company and together, should we now think, okay, the priority has to be retaining the funding, and that's more of a priority growth in deposits and retention of deposits is a bigger priority over over-price. And by the way, that's okay because the power of the combined NII from both the bigger balance sheet and the purchase accounting will supersede sort of the lower reprice?

    然後布萊恩指出,從這裡開始,存款利率將達到 30%。當我們思考未來的發展方向時,無論是作為一家獨立公司還是作為一個整體,我們現在是否應該認為,好的,首要任務必須是留住資金,這比提高存款成長和留住存款更重要?這比定價過高更重要。順便說一句,這沒關係,因為更大的資產負債表和收購會計處理帶來的合併淨利息收益將抵消較低的重定價的影響?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, great question. No, I think I would say that the priority here is replacing the funding and then supporting the right level of growth beyond that. We have run at a loan-to-deposit ratio that's a little below where we need to be, so that we are in good shape in terms of being able to provide some excess funding.

    是的,問得好。不,我認為當務之急是補充資金,然後在此基礎上支持適當的成長水準。我們的貸款存款比率略低於所需水平,因此我們在提供一些額外資金方面處於良好狀態。

  • But I talked a lot about the fact that we price a 60-40, like living inside a 60-40 mix. We like balance. We like diversification. And that's going to mean that we have to grow retail deposits at a rate that will allow us to essentially remix out of some higher-cost corporate cash and other funding sources, IntraFi deposits and otherwise over time that are on Comerica's balance sheet and into a more retail heavy mix.

    但我多次談到,我們的定價比例是 60/40,就像生活在 60/40 的混合環境中一樣。我們喜歡平衡。我們喜歡多元化投資。這意味著我們必須以這樣的速度成長零售存款,以便我們能夠逐步將 Comerica 資產負債表上的一些成本較高的企業現金和其他資金來源(例如 IntraFi 存款等)重新組合,轉而採用更側重零售的組合。

  • The good news is, we have -- like what I would argue is the best retail deposit engine in the retail bank sector and the tailwind of all these branches in the Southeast, plus what we're going to be able to do just leveraging Comerica's existing branches, where they haven't done any consumer deposit marketing, as I understand it, for over a decade, okay?

    好消息是,我們擁有——我認為是零售銀行領域最好的零售存款引擎,以及東南部所有這些分支機構帶來的順風,再加上我們將能夠利用 Comerica 現有的分支機構,據我了解,他們十多年來都沒有在這些分支機構進行過任何消費者存款營銷,好嗎?

  • And we bring in the analytic engine and a J.D. Power award-winning product set that will hit those branches day 1 and make them more productive, plus then the network benefit that you get out of the build-out in Texas. That really is meant to provide a catalyst where retail deposit growth exceeds the overall balance sheet growth and allows us to drive a remixing.

    我們引入了分析引擎和 J.D. Power 獲獎產品組合,這些產品將在第一天就投入使用,提高分支機構的生產力,此外,您還能從在德克薩斯州的建設中獲得網絡優勢。這實際上是為了提供一個催化劑,使零售存款成長超過整體資產負債表成長,並使我們能夠推動資產組合的重組。

  • Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Erika, I'll I would think about it for you guys in two horizons. One which is, where do we want to be at close of the transaction because we know things always come up around close. For example, we have shared customers in the commercial portfolio. And they have a lot of times customers pick two different banks because they want diversification. So we know that there could be a little bit of outflow around that. So we want to make sure that we have a good source of liquidity and optionality to deal with unexpected things that occur but also to help manage through the funding cost of the company.

    是的,艾麗卡,我會從兩個方面為你們考慮這個問題。其中一個問題是,我們希望在交易結束時達到什麼狀態,因為我們知道在交易即將結束時總是會有一些事情發生。例如,我們在商業組合中擁有共同的客戶。而且很多時候,客戶會選擇兩家不同的銀行,因為他們想要分散投資。所以我們知道這方面可能會有一些資金外流。因此,我們希望確保擁有良好的流動性和選擇權,以應對發生的意外情況,同時也有助於管理公司的融資成本。

  • From a longer-term perspective, I would tell you that the total funding cost for the combined company will be better going forward than the two individual companies. And you can look at things as simple as our cost of interest-bearing liabilities versus their cost of interest-bearing liabilities, we are 50 basis points, 60 basis points better in total on them, and it's back to the mix of our deposits.

    從長遠來看,我認為合併後的公司的總融資成本將比兩家單獨的公司要低。你可以簡單地比較一下我們的計息負債成本和他們的計息負債成本,我們在這方面總共比他們好 50 個基點,60 個基點,這又回到了我們存款組合的問題上。

  • So yes, we're going to lean a little bit more on retail right now because we also know that we are able to manage two very strong and profitable long-term retail deposit costs. We just want to be in a good position from a short-term perspective to make sure that we're ready to navigate, obviously, an uncertain environment and from an economic perspective, between the end of the year and close at the beginning of next year and to make sure that we're positioned for anything unexpected that could come up as part of the close.

    所以,是的,我們現在會更加重視零售業務,因為我們也知道我們能夠管理兩個非常強勁且盈利豐厚的長期零售存款業務。我們只是想從短期角度來看處於有利地位,以確保我們能夠應對顯然充滿不確定性的環境和經濟形勢,尤其是在今年年底到明年年初的交易完成期間,並確保我們能夠應對交易完成過程中可能出現的任何意外情況。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • And my second question, and I realize we're moving -- you were closer to 10:15. This is for you, Tim, and maybe if Jamie is also in the room since he's head of integration. So clearly, the financial benefits are obvious. You talked very passionately about the cultural and strategic fit. We have seen in the past some of the larger deals that have been announced previously been hampered by sort of poor back-end execution, right, in terms of how they approached the tech integration.

    我的第二個問題,我知道我們得換個話題了——你當時離 10:15 更近了。這是給你的,提姆,如果傑米也在房間裡的話,因為他是整合部門的負責人。因此,經濟效益顯而易見。你非常熱情地談到了文化和策略契合度。過去我們看到,一些先前宣布的大型交易由於後端執行不力而受阻,對吧,這體現在他們處理技術整合的方式上。

  • And we haven't talked much about that, Tim and Jamie. I'm just wondering if you could maybe give us a sense of your approach for the back end and tech integration and how you would prevent that in terms of prevent like slippage, in terms of expenses or delay in expense synergies and all of that, that has have hampered peers?

    提姆和傑米,我們還沒怎麼談過這件事。我只是想問一下,您能否簡要介紹一下您在後端和技術整合方面的做法,以及您將如何防止出現諸如費用超支或費用協同效應延遲等問題,這些問題已經阻礙了同行的發展?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, great question. You're going to have to make do with me because Jamie is so focused on the back-end conversion that he's off working with the teams, but he will be at BAB, Erika. So I would encourage you to ask the same question then and you'll get the benefit of his answer.

    是的,問得好。你只能將就我了,因為傑米非常專注於後端轉換,他正在和團隊一起工作,但他會在 BAB,埃里卡。所以我建議你那時也問同樣的問題,這樣你就能得到他的答案。

  • The conversion is the moment of truth because it's the first thing that you do that has a very material impact on customers if you get it wrong, right? And the work that has to be done on making sure that the receiving environment is clean and that you're not making any changes so that there aren't any unanticipated hiccups doing the data mapping, so that you are able to ensure that what you convert populates correctly and then managing the customer experience.

    轉換率是決定成敗的關鍵時刻,因為這是你要做的第一件事,如果做錯了,就會對客戶產生非常實質的影響,對吧?還需要做很多工作來確保接收環境乾淨整潔,並且不會進行任何更改,以免在資料映射過程中出現任何意外故障,從而確保轉換後的資料能夠正確填充,並管理客戶體驗。

  • I mean, simple things like so many customers use biometrics today to log-in and not everybody knows their password. And there's a by-product when you ask them to download a new app and tell them their user name and password ported over, you run into issues. So there is an incredible amount of detailed work that has to get done just on the mapping and the communication and then the pre-conversion actions that you can take to ensure that the conversions themselves go smoothly.

    我的意思是,像現在很多客戶都使用生物辨識技術登入這樣的簡單事情,而且並不是每個人都知道自己的密碼。當你要求他們下載一個新應用,並告訴他們用戶名和密碼會遷移過去時,就會出現一些問題。因此,光是映射、溝通以及轉換前準備工作就需要完成大量的細節工作,以確保轉換本身順利進行。

  • And coupled then with I think, having the right level of staffing on hand, whether it's in the branches and the call centers or otherwise, so that you don't have a situation where something unanticipated comes up. Like maybe a customer's mobile phone number is out of date and when they go in to change it, it locks them out of using Zelle for two weeks or something like that. Those are the sorts of things that you have to be in front of to make sure the conversions go well.

    我認為,再加上要有足夠數量的人員配備,無論是在分行、呼叫中心或其他地方,這樣就不會出現意想不到的情況。例如,客戶的手機號碼可能已過期,當他們去更改號碼時,系統會阻止他們使用 Zelle 兩週之類的。這些都是你必須事先做好準備的事情,以確保轉換順利進行。

  • The one thing that I will tell you is maybe different here than some of the other larger deals where there have been issues is there is no debate about which technology platforms we're going to use. So the -- there is not going to be a scenario where we go through and try to pick the best of both companies and then reintegrate them.

    我要告訴你們的一點是,這筆交易可能與其他一些出現問題的較大交易不同,那就是我們對將使用哪些技術平台沒有任何爭議。所以——不會出現這樣的情況:我們去挑選兩家公司最好的部分,然後將它們重新整合起來。

  • The Comerica customers and business are going to move from the Comerica platform to Fifth Third with the exception of the National Dealer Services business, where we don't have a platform. It's the reason we had to get out of the business five years ago. We have always liked it. We just -- we didn't have the scale to be able to support the platforms.

    除了全國經銷商服務業務(我們沒有自己的平台)之外,Comerica 的客戶和業務將從 Comerica 平台轉移到 Fifth Third 平台。這就是我們五年前不得不退出這個行業的原因。我們一直都很喜歡它。我們只是——我們沒有足夠的規模來支持這些平台。

  • So we know our environment and should be in a substantially better position because we're not doing systems integration and conversion on top of one another. It's just a conversion exercise. And they don't have -- there's not a single platform they have that we haven't converted before in terms of the key platforms. And in many cases, they're on the same platforms that we are.

    因此,我們了解自己的環境,並且應該處於更好的位置,因為我們不需要同時進行系統整合和轉換。這只是轉換練習。而且他們沒有——就關鍵平台而言,他們擁有的每一個平台我們都已經轉換過了。而且在很多情況下,他們使用的平台和我們一樣。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Perfect. And thank you Greg, for all o that color. It's never fun when you're popular, but I think investors appreciated the color.

    完美的。感謝格雷格,感謝你帶來的所有色彩。受歡迎從來都不是一件有趣的事,但我認為投資者欣賞這種色彩。

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I don't know. It's good for people like Greg to feel it. It feels like they're popular once in a while, right? (multiple speakers) Yes. I went through middle school, profoundly unpopular too. And the second, I got a moment in the sun, I felt pretty good about it. I think that was -- on that note, we probably should wrap it up.

    我不知道。像格雷格這樣的人有這種感覺是件好事。感覺它們偶爾會很受歡迎,對吧?(多人發言)是的。我上中學的時候,也很不受歡迎。第二次,我獲得了短暫的關注,我感覺非常好。我想,就此打住吧,我們或許應該結束今天的討論了。

  • Matt Curoe - Senior Director of Investor Relations

    Matt Curoe - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • Yes, I think so. And so thank you. And thanks, everyone, for your interest in Fifth Third. Please contact the Investor Relations department for any follow-up questions. Rob, you may now disconnect the call.

    是的,我也這麼認為。所以,謝謝。感謝大家對第五三銀行的關注。如有任何後續問題,請聯絡投資者關係部門。羅布,你現在可以掛斷電話了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。