自由港麥克莫蘭電話會議討論了該公司 2025 年第一季的營運和財務業績,強調了印尼的進展和銅的重要性。他們專注於提高效率、降低成本和開發新的銅項目。
該公司預計今年餘下的業績將有所改善,銅和金的銷售量將增加,單位成本將降低,自由現金流也將強勁。他們為未來的成長和獲利做好了充分準備,對未來三年的銷售量有著清晰的展望,並且注重卓越營運和成長機會。
該公司正在投資基礎設施並探索潛在的併購。他們正在積極努力減輕關稅對其供應鏈的影響,並正在考慮增加股票回購力度。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Freeport-McMoRan first quarter conference call.
女士們、先生們,感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Freeport-McMoRan 第一季電話會議。
(Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. David Joint, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
(操作員指示)現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 David Joint 先生。先生,請繼續。
David Joint - Vice President - Investor Relations
David Joint - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you, Regina, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Freeport-McMoRan conference call. Earlier this morning, FCX reported first quarter 2025 operating and financial results. A copy of today's release with supplemental schedules and slides are available on our website, fcx.com.
謝謝你,里賈娜,大家早安。歡迎參加自由港麥克莫蘭電話會議。今天早些時候,FCX 公佈了 2025 年第一季的營運和財務表現。我們的網站 fcx.com 上提供今天發布的新聞稿以及補充時間表和幻燈片的副本。
Today's conference call is being broadcast live on the internet. Anyone may listen to the conference call by accessing our website home page and clicking on the webcast link. In addition to analysts and investors, the financial press has been invited to listen to today's call. A replay of the webcast will be available on our website later today.
今天的電話會議正在網路上現場直播。任何人都可以透過造訪我們的網站主頁並點擊網路廣播連結來收聽電話會議。除了分析師和投資者之外,財經媒體也受邀聆聽今天的電話會議。網路直播的重播將於今天晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。
Before we begin our comments, we'd like to remind everyone that today's press release and certain of our comments on the call include non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the cautionary language in our press release and slides and to the risk factors described in our SEC filings, all of which are available on our website.
在我們開始評論之前,我們想提醒大家,今天的新聞稿和我們在電話會議上的某些評論包括非公認會計準則衡量標準和前瞻性陳述,實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們的新聞稿和幻燈片中的警示性語言以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險因素,所有這些都可以在我們的網站上找到。
Also on the call with me today are Richard Adkerson, Chairman of the Board of FCX; Kathleen Quirk, President and Chief Executive Officer; Marie Robertson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and other senior members of our management team. Richard will make some opening remarks. Kathleen and Marie will review our slide materials and then we'll open up the call for questions. Richard?
今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 FCX 董事會主席 Richard Adkerson;凱瑟琳·奎克 (Kathleen Quirk),總裁兼首席執行官;瑪麗·羅伯遜 (Marie Robertson),執行副總裁兼首席財務官;以及我們管理團隊的其他高級成員。理查德將致開幕詞。凱瑟琳和瑪麗將審查我們的幻燈片材料,然後我們將開始提問。理查德?
Richard Adkerson - Chairman of the Board
Richard Adkerson - Chairman of the Board
Thank you, David, and thank you all for joining us. Kathleen and our team will review the details of the quarter and our outlook. Team Freeport is executing well in a complex environment. Over the years, we've got a lot of experience in doing just that, facing problems with resilience and relentlessness and successfully executing our plans.
謝謝你,大衛,也謝謝大家加入我們。凱瑟琳和我們的團隊將審查本季的細節和我們的展望。自由港團隊在複雜的環境中表現良好。多年來,我們在這方面積累了豐富的經驗,以堅韌不拔的精神和毅力面對問題,並成功執行了我們的計劃。
Government policy and tariffs are dominating financial markets. At Freeport, we are focused on the basics to drive long-term value. Our strategy has been clear for many years, centered on being a global leader in copper. We have built our business with large-scale copper-producing assets and a long-term pipeline of organic growth projects supported by a strong balance sheet and a clearly articulated financial policy.
政府政策和關稅主導金融市場。在自由港,我們專注於推動長期價值的基礎。多年來,我們的策略一直很明確,就是成為銅產業的全球領導者。我們的業務建立在大規模銅生產資產和長期有機成長項目的基礎上,並以強勁的資產負債表和清晰的財務政策為支撐。
This strategy places Freeport in a strong position with where the world is heading. Copper is an essential metal for the future and Freeport is foremost in copper. We also have significant financial exposure to gold in a world-class molybdenum business.
這項戰略使自由港在世界發展方向上佔有有利地位。銅是未來必不可少的金屬,而自由港的銅產量位居世界首位。我們在世界一流的鉬業務中也擁有大量黃金金融敞口。
Kathleen and our senior management team are engaged in important initiatives to support the strategy. As you will see, we're making significant positive progress. Our team is driving efficiencies and reducing costs while setting up the next generation of copper development projects, which will have attractive returns for shareholders, by delivering more copper to a world with increasing requirements.
凱瑟琳和我們的高階管理團隊正在採取重要措施來支持該策略。正如您所看到的,我們正在取得重大積極進展。我們的團隊正在提高效率、降低成本,同時建立下一代銅開發項目,透過向需求日益增長的世界提供更多的銅,為股東帶來可觀的回報。
Our Freeport team's accomplishment in Indonesia are striking, in the upstream mining at the Grasberg district, and with our massively expanded downstream processing and refining. The smelter is progressing ahead of our earlier targets. We are honored that Indonesia's President Prabowo inaugurated our precious metals refinery in March.
我們的自由港團隊在印尼取得了令人矚目的成就,包括格拉斯伯格地區的上游採礦,以及大規模擴展的下游處理和精煉。該冶煉廠的進展超出了我們先前的目標。我們很榮幸印尼總統普拉博沃於三月為我們的貴金屬精煉廠揭幕。
PTFI celebrated its fifty-eighth anniversary in Indonesia this month. My first trip in Indonesia was 35 years ago. I am delighted with our current positive relationship with the government under President Prabowo's leadership, we are well positioned in working together to secure long-term operating rights for this incredible asset. It's the world's second largest copper mine in one of the world's largest gold mines. All of this would generate large values for all stakeholders for decades to come. Kathleen?
PTFI 本月在印尼慶祝了其成立五十八週年。我第一次去印尼是在35年前。我很高興看到我們與普拉博沃總統領導下的政府目前保持著良好的關係,我們有能力共同努力,確保這項寶貴資產的長期經營權。它是世界第二大銅礦,也是世界最大金礦之一。所有這些都將在未來幾十年為所有利害關係人創造巨大的價值。凱瑟琳?
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Richard, and I'm going to start on slide 3 with our first quarter highlights, where production of copper and gold were in line with our expectations going into the year, incorporating planned maintenance activities at Grasberg. We exceeded expectations on copper sales. And as we flagged in our March 31 update, our gold shipments were impacted by timing.
謝謝你,理查德,我將從幻燈片 3 開始介紹我們第一季的亮點,其中銅和金的產量符合我們對今年的預期,其中包括格拉斯伯格計劃的維護活動。我們的銅銷售超出了預期。正如我們在 3 月 31 日的更新中指出的那樣,我們的黃金出貨量受到了時間的影響。
Unit costs were similar to what we guided to in January for the quarter and a bit better than our late March update and we generated $1.9 billion in EBITDA with expectations that margins and cash flows will benefit from improved results in the balance of the year. Importantly, our annual sales guidance is on track, and we expect operating and financial performance to improve significantly in the balance of the year.
單位成本與我們 1 月份對該季度的預期相似,並且比 3 月底的更新略好一些,我們的 EBITDA 為 19 億美元,預計利潤率和現金流將受益於今年剩餘時間業績的改善。重要的是,我們的年度銷售預期已步入正軌,我們預計今年餘下的營運和財務業績將顯著改善。
To put this in context, compared with the first quarter levels, our quarterly copper sales volumes are expected to average about 20% more in the balance of the year. Gold sales are expected to average nearly 4 times the first quarter rates and unit net cash costs are expected to be 30% lower on average in the remaining quarters. This will drive strong performance and free cash flow in the balance of 2025 and continuing over the next several years.
具體來說,與第一季的水準相比,預計今年剩餘時間我們的季度銅銷售量平均將成長約 20%。預計黃金銷售額平均將達到第一季的近 4 倍,剩餘季度的單位淨現金成本預計平均下降 30%。這將推動 2025 年及未來幾年的強勁業績和自由現金流。
Other notable highlights in the quarter include solid progress on the smelter with repairs tracking ahead of plan, continued momentum on our low-cost leach innovation projects in the US. The premium we are receiving on our US copper sales, which we'll talk more about, favorable gold pricing and the advancement of optionality in our organic growth portfolio.
本季其他值得注意的亮點包括冶煉廠的穩定進展,維修工作提前完成,我們在美國低成本浸出創新項目的持續發展勢頭。我們在美國銅銷售中獲得的溢價(我們將對此進行更多討論)、優惠的黃金定價以及我們有機成長投資組合中可選性的提升。
We're well positioned for the future as a leader in the global copper industry, and we remain focused on operational excellence and our innovative and exciting growth pipeline to drive our future results. We took advantage of recent market volatility, as you see, and year-to-date, have repurchased 2.3 million shares in the open market for approximately $80 million.
作為全球銅產業的領導者,我們為未來做好了準備,我們將繼續專注於卓越營運和創新且令人興奮的成長管道,以推動我們未來的業績。如您所見,我們利用了最近的市場波動,今年迄今為止,已在公開市場上回購了 230 萬股,價值約 8000 萬美元。
On the next slide, slide 4, we are summarizing our priorities for 2025. We covered these on our January call, and these areas are defining our everyday pursuit of value creation. The first one is executing our plans safely and efficiently. That remains a top priority.
在下一張投影片即第 4 張中,我們總結了 2025 年的優先事項。我們在一月份的電話會議上討論了這些問題,這些領域決定了我們每天追求的價值創造。第一個是安全有效地執行我們的計劃。這仍然是首要任務。
Team Freeport has a history of strong execution, delivering on our planned volumes, cost targets and capital projects safely and efficiently while seeking opportunities to capture upside values. Given inflationary pressures in recent years, we're particularly focused on aggressive cost management and driving our costs lower, particularly in the US.
自由港團隊擁有強大的執行力,能夠安全且有效率地完成計畫產量、成本目標和資本項目,同時尋求機會獲得上行價值。鑑於近年來的通膨壓力,我們特別注重積極的成本管理並降低成本,尤其是在美國。
A second key focus area is scaling the leach opportunity. We've talked a lot about that in recent years. Achievement of our targets will significantly enhance margins and profitability. We continue to target a 40% increase in our run rate to achieve 300 million pounds per annum by the end of the year and on our path to 800 million pounds per annum in the future.
第二個重點關注領域是擴大浸出機會。近年來,我們就此討論過很多次。實現我們的目標將顯著提高利潤率和獲利能力。我們繼續將目標設定為將運行率提高 40%,到今年年底實現年產值 3 億英鎊,並在未來實現年產值 8 億英鎊。
Third is the PTFI smelter. The team has expedited the repair process and set us up for start-up by the end of May. That's about one month sooner than the earlier schedule. Our startup has been de-risked and success here will be beneficial as we work to extend our operating rights long term in Indonesia.
第三個是PTFI冶煉廠。該團隊已加快修復進程,並準備在五月底前啟動。這比之前的計劃提前了大約一個月。我們的新創公司已經消除了風險,這裡的成功將對我們在印尼長期延長經營權有益。
We see innovation as a major value driver for our business. We're pursuing aggressively new tools to enable better productivity and cost performance. And we're continuing to build optionality in our growth portfolio for the next generation of copper producing assets. We have key milestones identified at three major projects that we're pursuing in the Americas.
我們將創新視為我們業務的主要價值驅動力。我們正在積極尋求新工具,以提高生產力和成本效益。我們將繼續在我們的成長投資組合中為下一代銅生產資產建立可選性。我們已經確定了在美洲開展的三個主要項目的關鍵里程碑。
Turning to the copper markets. We've got some commentary on slide 5. The market fundamentals remain positive, and that's underpinned by copper's increasing use in the global economy to drive electrification. Copper prices during the quarter traded between $3.94 per pound and $4.53 per pound on the London Metals Exchange and reached a new high of $5.22 per pound on the US COMEX exchange in March.
轉向銅市場。我們對第 5 張投影片有一些評論。市場基本面依然積極,這得益於銅在全球經濟中日益廣泛的使用以推動電氣化。本季度,倫敦金屬交易所的銅價在每磅 3.94 美元至每磅 4.53 美元之間,3 月份美國 COMEX 交易所的銅價創下每磅 5.22 美元的新高。
US tariff policy has heavily influenced sentiment on the global economy in recent weeks, but the facts are that copper demand remains strong globally and benefits from the secular trends in major new investments in power infrastructure, technology, decarbonization and transportation.
近幾週,美國關稅政策嚴重影響了全球經濟情緒,但事實是,全球銅需求仍然強勁,並受益於電力基礎設施、技術、脫碳和運輸領域重大新投資的長期趨勢。
The US remains strong, supported by rising demand for electrical power and we are seeing improving demand trends in China, which has been particularly strong year-to-date and also green shoots in Europe. The fundamentals of the copper markets are among the most compelling of any commodity.
受電力需求不斷增長的支撐,美國經濟依然保持強勁。我們也看到中國的需求趨勢正在改善,今年迄今中國的需求尤其強勁,歐洲也出現了復甦的跡象。銅市場的基本面是所有商品中最引人注目的。
While macro sentiment impact short-term pricing, we recognize that market analysts expect a tight market in 2025 and are projecting demand growth to outpace available supplies as we go forward. Freeport is in a great position to increase volumes in the coming years to meet rising demand.
雖然宏觀情緒會影響短期定價,但我們認識到市場分析師預計 2025 年市場將趨緊,並預計未來需求成長將超過可用供應。自由港在未來幾年內將有較大機會增加產量以滿足不斷增長的需求。
We'll talk about on slide 6, US copper pricing and the premiums currently priced in to the US copper market. We present information on regional premiums and the ongoing US investigation on copper for considering a potential tariff.
我們將在第 6 張投影片上討論美國銅定價以及目前美國銅市場定價的溢價。我們提供有關區域溢價和美國正在進行的銅調查的信息,以考慮潛在的關稅。
In late February, the Trump administration issued an executive order identifying copper as a critical material and instructing the Secretary of Commerce to conduct an investigation into the copper market and the impact of imports on national security.
2月下旬,川普政府發布行政命令,將銅列為關鍵資料,並指示商務部長調查銅市場及其進口對國家安全的影響。
The US currently imports approximately half of its copper requirements. The domestic supplies in the US, the rest of them are majority produced by Freeport. The investigation, which is expected to be completed by November and potentially sooner, will also cover recommendations to provide incentives to increase domestic production and policies to strengthen the US copper supply chain, including permitting reforms.
目前,美國約有一半的銅需求依賴進口。美國國內供應,其餘大部分由自由港生產。預計調查將於11月完成,甚至可能更早,調查還將涵蓋提供激勵措施以增加國內產量的建議以及加強美國銅供應鏈的政策,包括許可改革。
While copper is currently exempt from the new tariffs, the outcome of this investigation may lead to tariffs on imported copper and markets have begun to price in a potential tariff, as you can see from the growing US premium. For background, the reference price for Freeport's international operations utilized the London Metals Exchange.
雖然銅目前不受新關稅的影響,但此次調查的結果可能會導致對進口銅徵收關稅,而且市場已開始將潛在關稅計入價格,正如您從美國溢價不斷上漲所看到的那樣。作為背景,自由港國際業務的參考價格採用倫敦金屬交易所。
And in the US, which comprises about one-third of our copper sales, our sales contracts are based on the COMEX exchange pricing. Historically, the pricing on the two exchanges have been similar, but in recent months, the US pricing has reflected market expectations for a tariff on US imports and this premium has widened over time, and is currently approximately 13% above LME.
在美國,我們的銅銷售額約佔三分之一,我們的銷售合約以 COMEX 交易所定價為基礎。從歷史上看,這兩家交易所的定價相似,但近幾個月來,美國定價反映了市場對美國進口產品徵收關稅的預期,而這種溢價隨著時間的推移而擴大,目前比倫敦金屬交易所高出約 13%。
This equates to about $0.57 per pound as of yesterday, and that premium currently implies an approximate $800 million bottom line annual financial benefit on Freeport's US copper sales. For reference, the tariff on steel and aluminum is 25% compared to the current market premium of 13% for copper.
截至昨日,這相當於每磅約 0.57 美元,而這項溢價目前意味著自由港在美國銅銷售方面每年將獲得約 8 億美元的財務收益。作為參考,鋼鐵和鋁的關稅為 25%,而目前銅的市場溢價為 13%。
As Freeport has not taken a position on whether or not copper tariffs should be imposed, but we have highlighted in our public comment submission, some of the items for consideration, including the potential broader impact of tariffs on the economy, inflation and where US domestic copper production is currently placed on the global cost curve.
雖然自由港尚未就是否應徵收銅關稅表明立場,但我們在公開意見書中強調了一些需要考慮的事項,包括關稅對經濟、通貨膨脹以及美國國內銅產量目前在全球成本曲線中所處位置的潛在更廣泛影響。
We also highlighted in our comments the importance of Freeport to US copper supply, the critical role we play in supplying 70% of the US domestically sourced refined copper and the opportunity we have at Freeport for US brownfield growth in copper supplies.
我們也在評論中強調了自由港對美國銅供應的重要性、我們在供應美國 70% 國內精煉銅方面發揮的關鍵作用,以及我們在自由港為美國棕地銅供應增長提供的機會。
In the next slide, we highlight Freeport as America's copper champion and we appreciate the administration's recognition of copper as a critical mineral, and the actions by the US government to provide permitting reforms and incentives to boost domestic production.
在下一張投影片中,我們重點介紹了自由港作為美國銅礦冠軍的地位,我們讚賞政府對銅作為關鍵礦物的認可,以及美國政府為促進國內生產而採取的許可改革和激勵措施。
Freeport is an iconic American copper producer and is by far the largest contributor to the US copper market with an established and successful franchise dating back to the late 1800s. We employ a large workforce of 39,000 people, including contractors, mostly in rural communities in the US and have earned the trust of the communities where we operate in the Southwestern United States and with our US copper customers, some of whom have placed trust in us to source all of their copper requirements.
自由港是美國標誌性的銅生產商,也是迄今為止美國銅市場最大的貢獻者,其成功特許經營權可追溯到 19 世紀後期。我們擁有 39,000 名員工(包括承包商),主要分佈在美國農村社區,贏得了我們在美國西南部經營所在社區和美國銅客戶的信任,其中一些客戶信任我們,可以滿足他們所有的銅需求。
Our operations in the United States are fully integrated with mines and smelting and refining facilities and innovative leach processes that efficiently produce refined cathode. Freeport is well positioned to grow in the US, as you'll see from our pipeline, we've got sizable resource position and brownfield expansion opportunities.
我們在美國的業務與礦山、冶煉和精煉設施以及創新的浸出工藝完全整合,可高效生產精煉陰極。自由港在美國具有良好的發展前景,正如您從我們的管道中看到的那樣,我們擁有相當大的資源地位和棕地擴張機會。
Turning to our global operations for the first quarter on slide 8, will provide some operating highlights by geographic region. Starting with the US, we continue to make progress on enhancing efficiencies and improving costs and margins. Our operating teams are benefiting from data analytics to identify the highest value opportunity for efficiency gains and to assist in decision-making to eliminate efficiency losses.
第 8 張投影片介紹了我們第一季的全球營運情況,將按地理區域提供一些營運亮點。從美國開始,我們不斷在提高效率、改善成本和利潤率方面取得進展。我們的營運團隊正在從數據分析中受益,以確定提高效率的最高價值機會,並協助決策以消除效率損失。
On the cost front, improved retention of our workforce has allowed us to rebuild skills within our workforce with lower reliance on more expensive contractors. As an example, contractor hours at Morenci, our largest mine in the US, are down about 20% over the last few quarters.
在成本方面,提高員工留任率使我們能夠重建員工的技能,減少對更昂貴的承包商的依賴。例如,我們在美國最大的礦場莫倫西 (Morenci) 的承包商工時在過去幾季下降了約 20%。
As we look forward, we expect production in the US to increase in 2025 compared to 2024 and also to increase further in 2026 and 2027, absent changes in commodity-based input costs, we're targeting unit cost to trend lower each year over this three year period.
展望未來,我們預計 2025 年美國的產量將比 2024 年有所增加,並且 2026 年和 2027 年還將進一步增加,如果商品投入成本不發生變化,我們的目標是在這三年內單位成本每年都呈下降趨勢。
Our autonomous haul truck conversion at Bagdad is going very well. That is going to allow us to test the potential for this application for potential use at other locations in the US. At Bagdad, we've already converted 12 of 33 autonomous trucks. We have them in service now, and we expect to have the balance in service over the next several months.
我們在巴格達的自動運輸卡車改裝進度非常順利。這將使我們能夠測試該應用程式在美國其他地方的潛在使用潛力。在巴格達,我們已經改裝了 33 輛自動駕駛卡車中的 12 輛。我們現在已經將它們投入使用,並且我們預計在接下來的幾個月內將其餘的也投入使用。
We are confident in further scaling in our innovative leach program. We've got several projects underway using existing technologies to achieve our targeted 40% increase in run rate to 300 million pounds per annum of low-cost copper by year-end 2025.
我們有信心進一步擴大我們的創新浸出計劃。我們已利用現有技術開展了多個項目,以實現到 2025 年底將運行率提高 40% 至每年 3 億磅低成本銅的目標。
We're also integrating new technology and automation to optimize performance in our basic mining functions and believe there is significant potential for value creation through meaningful cost reduction, which would enhance margins and expand reserves from known mineralization, which is currently economically limited under our current reserve pricing. We can do this through further using and integrating new technology into our basic operations.
我們還整合了新技術和自動化,以優化我們基本採礦功能的性能,並相信透過大幅降低成本可以創造巨大的價值,這將提高利潤率並擴大已知礦產的儲量,而根據我們目前的儲量定價,已知礦產的儲量目前在經濟上受到限制。我們可以透過進一步使用和整合新技術到我們的基本營運中來實現這一目標。
We're also continuing to follow and pursue the potential for US legislation to recognize copper as a critical mineral and bring eligibility consistent with other critical minerals for a potential tax credit of 10% of our operating costs in the US.
我們也將繼續關注和探索美國立法將銅認定為關鍵礦物的可能性,並使其與其他關鍵礦物一樣有資格獲得相當於我們在美國運營成本 10% 的潛在稅收抵免。
Turning to South America. The team at our Cerro Verde operation posted another solid quarter with improved mill rates, better recoveries and higher molybdenum volumes that helped us mitigate the impact of lower ore grades. Our unit net cash costs in the quarter were $0.20 per pound lower than the comparable quarter last year.
轉向南美洲。我們的 Cerro Verde 營運團隊又取得了一個穩健的季度業績,磨礦率提高、回收率提高、鉬產量增加,幫助我們減輕了礦石品位下降的影響。本季我們的單位淨現金成本比去年同期低 0.20 美元/磅。
At El Abra, in Chile, we are positive about testing an initiative to add heat through our leach process, which has promised to provide incremental near-term production. And we continue to advance a major project at El Abra in partnership with Codelco, would capitalize on the large resource we have defined and bring substantial scale and operating efficiencies to this high-class mine.
在智利的埃爾阿布拉,我們積極測試透過浸出製程增加熱量的計劃,該計劃預計將在短期內提高產量。我們將繼續與 Codelco 合作推進 El Abra 的一個重大項目,該項目將利用我們已經確定的大量資源,為這個高級礦山帶來顯著的規模和營運效率。
In Indonesia, as we've already discussed, our operating rates in the quarter were impacted by maintenance on one of our SAG mills. That resulted in a 25% reduction in mill rates during the quarter. The maintenance work was timed to coincide with our work to extend our export permit, which was received in mid-March.
在印度尼西亞,正如我們已經討論過的,我們本季的營運率受到了其中一家 SAG 工廠維護的影響。這導致本季的稅率降低了 25%。維護工作的時間與我們延長出口許可證的工作時間一致,我們的出口許可證是在三月中旬獲得的。
As we look forward, we expect strong production from Grasberg in the balance of the year with 2025 annual sales of 1.6 billion pounds of copper and 1.6 million ounces of gold at a net cash credit of $0.47 per pound, meaning our gold revenues will more than offset all of our production costs. The team has made outstanding progress in completing the smelter repairs. And as I mentioned, we're a bit ahead of schedule.
展望未來,我們預計格拉斯伯格礦今年餘下的產量將保持強勁,到 2025 年,銅和黃金的年銷量將分別達到 16 億磅和 160 萬盎司,淨現金信用額為每磅 0.47 美元,這意味著我們的黃金收入將足以抵消我們所有的生產成本。該團隊在完成冶煉廠修復工作方面取得了突出進展。正如我所提到的,我們比計劃提前了一點。
The precious metals refinery, as Richard referenced, was inaugurated by the President of Indonesia in March and is ramping up to full capacity. The successful completion of these projects position us to advance approval for extension of our operating rights in the second half of this year.
正如理查德所提到的,這家貴金屬精煉廠於三月由印尼總統揭幕,目前正全力生產。這些項目的順利完成,使我們預計在今年下半年提前獲得經營權延長的批准。
Turning to our growth, which we're really excited about. As we look forward, we see a world that will require additional copper supplies to support energy infrastructure, new technologies, and more advanced societies. And Freeport is really well positioned with an extensive copper resource position in a broad range of projects in various stages of development.
談到我們的成長,我們對此感到非常興奮。展望未來,我們看到世界將需要更多的銅供應來支持能源基礎設施、新技術和更先進的社會。自由港在處於不同開發階段的眾多項目中擁有豐富的銅資源,因此具有十分有利的地位。
These initiatives, as you can see from this chart on slide 9, totaled 2.5 billion pounds of copper per annum. And those can be developed from Freeport's known resources in jurisdictions where we have established history and experience. Our projects in Indonesia also have the benefit of high gold content that go along with the copper, so they really are supercharged from an economic standpoint.
正如您從第 9 張投影片的圖表中看到的那樣,這些舉措每年總計消耗 25 億磅銅。這些都可以利用我們在具有歷史和經驗的司法管轄區內已知的自由港資源進行開發。我們在印尼的計畫也受惠於與銅同時存在的高金含量,因此從經濟角度來看,這些計畫確實具有超強的潛力。
Because all of these projects are brownfield in nature, we benefit from leveraging existing infrastructure, experienced workforces and relationships with key stakeholders to move more quickly with less risk than a greenfield project.
由於所有這些項目本質上都是棕地項目,因此我們可以利用現有的基礎設施、經驗豐富的勞動力以及與關鍵利益相關者的關係,從而比綠地項目更快地發展,並且風險更小。
In the US, these projects include the incremental leach volumes of 600 million pounds per annum. As I mentioned, we've already hit the initial target of $200 million and are going to 800 million pounds per annum over the next three to five years. The Bagdad expansion, which we're currently evaluating and potential expansion to double the production in the Safford/Lone Star district, which is an enormous district with enormous amounts of copper that we're excited about the future on.
在美國,這些項目包括每年增加 6 億磅的浸出量。正如我所提到的,我們已經達到了 2 億美元的初始目標,並將在未來三到五年內達到每年 8 億英鎊。巴格達擴建計畫目前正在評估,潛在的擴建將使薩福德/孤星地區的產量翻一番,這是一個擁有大量銅礦的巨大地區,我們對其未來充滿期待。
In South America, we and our partner, Codelco, are planning a major expansion at El Abra through the addition of a new concentrator, which would provide 750 million pounds of incremental copper per annum. We're in the process of completing a permit application, and we expect to file the application by the end of this year.
在南美,我們和我們的合作夥伴 Codelco 計劃在 El Abra 進行大規模擴建,增設一座新的選礦廠,每年將提供 7.5 億磅增量銅。我們正在完成許可證申請,預計在今年年底前提交申請。
In Indonesia, after successfully developing several world-class underground ore bodies. We're now progressing development of the Kucing Liar development, and we expect to commence production here by the end of this decade by 2030. We're also conducting additional exploration below our existing DMLZ ore body and we expect that an extension of our operating rights beyond 2041, will set up for additional long-term development options in this highly attractive district.
在印度尼西亞,成功開發了幾個世界級的地下礦體。我們目前正在推進 Kucing Liar 開發項目,預計在本世紀末(2030 年)在此開始生產。我們也在現有 DMLZ 礦體下方進行額外勘探,我們預計我們的經營權將延長至 2041 年以後,這將為這個極具吸引力的地區提供更多的長期開發選擇。
Our objective is to move quickly to define the opportunities and value potential and allocate capital on a risk-reward basis to provide profitable growth options for the future. There are additional details on these projects on slide 25 in the reference materials.
我們的目標是迅速採取行動來確定機會和價值潛力,並根據風險回報分配資本,為未來提供有利可圖的成長選擇。參考資料的第 25 張投影片上有關於這些項目的更多詳細資訊。
As usual, we will continue to be disciplined in our approach, targeting opportunities that enhance long-term value. Several of these projects are in advanced stages, particularly the leach initiative where we can have near-term impacts we're providing near-term low-cost of incremental pounds. And then we've also have medium-term opportunities and longer-term optionality in our portfolio.
像往常一樣,我們將繼續嚴謹行事,瞄準能夠提升長期價值的機會。其中一些項目已進入後期階段,特別是利奇計劃,我們可以在該計劃中產生短期影響,並提供短期低成本的增量英鎊。我們的投資組合中還有中期機會和長期選擇權。
I'd now like to ask Maree Robertson to review our financial outlook, and then we'll take your questions. Maree?
現在我想請 Maree Robertson 回顧我們的財務前景,然後我們會回答您的問題。瑪麗?
Maree Robertson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Maree Robertson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Kathleen. Just moving to slide 10. We show our three year outlook for sales volumes of copper, gold and molybdenum. Our guidance for the three year period is consistent with our previous estimates. And for 2025, the US represents 33% of our consolidated copper sales.
謝謝,凱瑟琳。直接移到第 10 張投影片。我們展示了對銅、金和鉬的銷售量的三年展望。我們對未來三年的指導與我們先前的估計一致。到 2025 年,美國將占我們綜合銅銷售額的 33%。
South America, around 27% and Indonesia approximately 40% and as Kathleen mentioned earlier, continued success in our leasing initiatives would provide upside to these estimates. On slide 22 of the reference materials, we provide quarterly forecasts, which shows sales in the balance of the year is substantially higher than first quarter levels.
南美洲約為 27%,印尼約為 40%,正如凱瑟琳之前提到的,我們的租賃計劃繼續取得成功將為這些估計帶來上行空間。在參考資料的第 22 張投影片上,我們提供了季度預測,顯示今年餘下的銷售額大幅高於第一季的水平。
Our current estimate for net unit costs for the full year 2025 using $3,000 for gold and $20 per moly is approximately $1.50 per pound lower than our previous guidance of $1.60 per pound. Unit costs in the balance of the year reflect improved operating rates compared with the first quarter. The details of the costs by region are presented on slide 21 in the reference materials.
我們目前對 2025 年全年淨單位成本的估計是,黃金價格為 3,000 美元,鉬價格為 20 美元,比我們之前預測的每磅 1.60 美元低約每磅 1.50 美元。與第一季相比,今年餘額中的單位成本反映出營運率的提高。各地區成本的詳細情況已在參考資料的第 21 張投影片中列出。
Moving to slide 11. Putting together our projected volumes and cost estimates, we show model results for EBITDA and cash flow at various copper prices ranging from $4 per pound to $5 per pound. These modeled results using the average of 2026 and 2027 with current volume and cost estimates and holding gold flat at $3,000 per ounce and molybdenum flat at $20 per pound.
移至投影片 11。結合我們的預期產量和成本估算,我們展示了銅價從每磅 4 美元到每磅 5 美元不等的 EBITDA 和現金流的模型結果。這些模型結果採用了 2026 年和 2027 年的平均值,並根據當前的數量和成本估算,將黃金價格維持在每盎司 3,000 美元,將鉬價格維持在每磅 20 美元。
Annual EBITDA would range from over $11 billion per annum at $4 copper to over $15 billion per annum at $5 copper with operating cash flows ranging from $8 billion per year at $4 for over $11 billion at $5 copper.
年度 EBITDA 範圍從銅價 4 美元時每年 110 多億美元到銅價 5 美元時每年 150 多億美元不等,而經營現金流範圍從銅價 4 美元時每年 80 億美元到銅價 5 美元時每年 110 億美元不等。
These estimates assume no premium on our US copper sales. If we apply the current premium of 13%, our EBITDA and operating cash flows would increase by approximately $800 million per annum. We show sensitivities to various commodities on the rise.
這些估計假設我們的美國銅銷售額沒有溢價。如果我們採用目前 13% 的溢價,我們的 EBITDA 和經營現金流每年將增加約 8 億美元。我們對各種商品的敏感度不斷上升。
You will note, we are highly leveraged to copper prices with each $0.10 per pound change equating to approximately $425 million in annual EBITDA. We will also benefit from improving gold prices with each $100 per ounce cans in price approximating $150 million in annual EBITDA.
您會注意到,我們對銅價的槓桿率很高,每磅 0.10 美元的變化相當於每年約 4.25 億美元的 EBITDA。我們還將受益於金價上漲,每盎司金價上漲 100 美元將帶來約 1.5 億美元的年度 EBITDA。
With our long life reserves, and large-scale production, we are well positioned to generate substantial cash flow to fund future organic growth and cash returns under our performance-based payout framework.
憑藉我們的長期儲備和大規模生產,我們完全有能力在基於績效的支付框架下產生大量現金流,為未來的有機成長和現金回報提供資金。
Slide 12 shows our current forecast for capital expenditures in 2025 and 2026. Again, capital expenditures are similar to our previous guidance, expected to approximate $4.4 billion in 2025 and 2026. The discretionary projects approximated $1 billion in 2024 and are expected to approximate $1.6 to $1.7 billion per year in 2025 and 2026, with roughly 50% related to the Kucing Liar development and the LNG project at Grasberg.
投影片 12 顯示了我們對 2025 年和 2026 年資本支出的當前預測。同樣,資本支出與我們先前的指導相似,預計 2025 年和 2026 年約為 44 億美元。2024 年可自由支配的項目投資約為 10 億美元,預計 2025 年和 2026 年每年將達到約 16 至 17 億美元,其中約 50% 與 Kucing Liar 開發項目和 Grasberg 的液化天然氣項目有關。
The balance includes acceleration of tailings and other infrastructure to support the Bagdad expansion, the Atlantic Copper circular project, which is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026 and allocated capitalized interest. The discretionary category reflects the capital investments we're making in new value-enhancing projects, that under our financial policy are funded with the 50% of available cash that is not distributed.
該餘額包括加速尾礦和其他基礎設施建設,以支持巴格達擴建項目、大西洋銅循環項目,該項目預計將於 2026 年上半年完工,並分配資本化利息。可自由支配的類別反映了我們對新的增值項目所做的資本投資,根據我們的財務政策,這些投資由未分配的 50% 可用現金提供資金。
These projects, which are detailed on slide 30 in the reference materials, will benefit our results in the future and we'll continue to be disciplined in allocating capital to projects that enhance our position and generate attractive returns. This is consistent with our track record of efficient capital allocation and value-driven approach.
這些項目在參考資料的第 30 張幻燈片中有詳細說明,它們將有利於我們未來的業績,我們將繼續嚴格地將資金分配給那些能夠增強我們的地位並產生可觀回報的項目。這與我們高效率的資本配置和價值驅動方法的記錄一致。
On slide 13, we reiterate the financial policy priorities centered on its strong balance sheet, cash returns to shareholders and investments in value-enhancing growth projects. Our balance sheet is solid with investment-grade ratings, solid credit metrics and flexibility within our debt targets to execute on our projects. We do not have any significant debt maturities until 2027.
在第 13 張投影片上,我們重申了以強勁的資產負債表、股東現金回報和增值成長項目投資為中心的財務政策重點。我們的資產負債表穩健,具有投資等級、穩健的信用指標和靈活的債務目標,可以執行我們的專案。2027 年之前我們沒有任何重大債務到期。
In addition to paying our first quarter base and variable dividends, we have repurchased $80 million of FCX common stock in the open market year-to-date. In total, we have distributed $5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share purchases since adopting our financial policy of returning 50% of excess cash flow in 2021, and we have an attractive future long-term portfolio, as we've previously discussed that will enable us to continue to build long-term value for shareholders with the remaining 50%.
除了支付第一季基本股利和浮動股利外,今年迄今我們還在公開市場上回購了價值 8,000 萬美元的 FCX 普通股。總體而言,自 2021 年採用返還 50% 超額現金流的財務政策以來,我們已透過股息和股票購買向股東分配了 50 億美元,並且我們擁有具有吸引力的長期投資組合,正如我們之前所討論的,這將使我們能夠利用剩餘的 50% 繼續為股東創造長期價值。
We actively monitor current market conditions and carefully manage the timing of our projects to ensure our financial flexibility remains strong. Our global team is focused on driving value in our business, committed to strong execution of our plans, providing cash to invest in profitable growth and return cash to shareholders.
我們積極監控當前的市場狀況,並謹慎管理專案時間,以確保我們的財務靈活性保持強勁。我們的全球團隊專注於推動業務價值,致力於強有力地執行我們的計劃,提供現金投資於獲利成長並向股東返還現金。
And just on slide 14 and concluding today's presentation, Freeport's large scale, our proven producing assets, actionable low-risk growth, leadership in the global copper industry. significant exposure to a rising gold price and an advantageous US footprint, all provide a strong foundation for the future.
就在第 14 張投影片上,在今天的演講結束時,我們談到了自由港的規模、我們成熟的生產資產、可行的低風險成長以及在全球銅產業的領導地位。黃金價格上漲和美國有利的影響力,都為未來奠定了堅實的基礎。
Thanks for your attention. I'll now hand it back to Kathleen and we'll take your questions.
感謝您的關注。現在我將把它交還給凱瑟琳,我們將回答你們的問題。
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Maree. We're ready for questions.
謝謝你,瑪麗。我們已準備好回答問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions).
(操作員指令)。
Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。
Carlos De Alba - Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Analyst
Yeah, good morning everyone. Thank you very much. Kathleen, I wanted to check with you, what is the expected cost reduction or efficiency gains in terms of volumes that you would expect for the Bagdad autonomous haulage system when it is fully in place and running at capacity? A range would be quite useful just to get a sense of the potential lift in results.
是的,大家早安。非常感謝。凱瑟琳,我想向您確認一下,當巴格達自動運輸系統全面投入使用並滿載運轉時,您預計其成本會降低多少或運輸量方面的效率會提高多少?一個範圍對於了解結果的潛在提升非常有用。
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Carlos. We're really excited about what the autonomous haulage will allow us to do with Bagdad. This was one of the sites that we had struggled with over the pandemic period in keeping staffing levels and with high rates of turnover there in this very remote location it affected our cost structure and our efficiencies.
謝謝你,卡洛斯。我們對自動運輸能為巴格達帶來什麼幫助感到非常興奮。這是我們在疫情期間一直難以保持人員配備水準的站點之一,由於這個非常偏遠的地點人員流動率很高,這影響了我們的成本結構和效率。
And so what we see here is with this project done it will reduce the amount of people we need to hire for an expansion, and it will leverage us to be able to get consistent and safe results without having to hire people. So the project itself has an attractive rate of return on its face.
因此,我們看到的是,完成這個專案後,我們將減少擴張所需僱用的人數,並且使我們能夠在不僱用人員的情況下獲得一致、安全的結果。因此從表面上看,該項目本身的回報率很有吸引力。
The capital costs that we're incurring for that project, and we've got some details in the back reference materials, but the capital cost itself is to convert these all trucks is in the $80 million range, and the project itself will produce a good rate of return and allow us, again, leverage to expand that operation in the future.
我們為該項目承擔的資本成本,我們在後面的參考資料中得到了一些細節,但轉換這些卡車的資本成本本身就在 8000 萬美元左右,而且該項目本身將產生良好的回報率,並允許我們再次利用槓桿在未來擴大該業務。
So it's strategic for us. It's also very strategic from the perspective of allowing us potentially to adopt this at other sites within the US. And it could have meaningful impacts for us. In general, Carlos, in terms of the targets for our cash costs in the US, we have a target to get to within the 2027 time frame to get to an average cost of $2.50 range, we're currently around $3 and we've got projects underway now that will allow us to bring our costs in the US down.
所以這對我們來說具有戰略意義。從允許我們在美國其他站點採用此方法的角度來看,它也非常具有戰略意義。這可能會對我們產生有意義的影響。卡洛斯,總的來說,就我們在美國的現金成本目標而言,我們的目標是在 2027 年的時間範圍內將平均成本控制在 2.50 美元左右,目前我們的成本約為 3 美元,而且我們現在正在進行一些項目,這將使我們能夠降低在美國的成本。
And so we're targeting over the next couple of years, to get to, on average, $2.50 per pound, and we're not going to stop there. So a big focus of ours in the US is on bringing down that unit cost to look more like it does in South America, even though we've got lower grades in the US.
因此,我們的目標是在未來幾年內達到平均每磅 2.50 美元,而且我們不會止步於此。因此,我們在美國的一個重點是降低單位成本,使其更接近南美,儘管我們在美國的產品等級較低。
Carlos De Alba - Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Liam Fitzpatrick with Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的 Liam Fitzpatrick。
Liam Fitzpatrick - Analyst
Liam Fitzpatrick - Analyst
Good morning, Kathleen. My question is on Indonesia and the new smelter and how that links into the to the concentrate export permit. Are you aiming to proactively extend the allowance to export concentrate beyond the midyear point.
早上好,凱瑟琳。我的問題是關於印尼和新冶煉廠以及它與精礦出口許可證有何關聯。您是否計劃主動延長精礦出口配額至年中之後?
Or could we again see a situation whether it delays to shipments in Q3? And then linked to that, can you give any sort of color or guidance on how long you expect the new smelter to take to ramp up towards full capacity? Thank you.
或者我們會再次看到第三季出貨延遲的情況?然後與此相關,您能否提供任何細節或指導,說明您預計新冶煉廠需要多長時間才能達到滿載生產?謝謝。
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Thank you, Liam. I'm going to let Cory talk about the smelter ramp-up, Cory Stevens, and he's over there right now. But in terms of the first question, on our sales forecast. We have enough quota within the approved level that we got in March to meet our sales targets for this year.
好的。謝謝你,利亞姆。我要讓科里 (Cory) 談談冶煉廠的增產事宜,科里史蒂文斯 (Cory Stevens),他現在就在那裡。但就第一個問題而言,關於我們的銷售預測。我們在三月獲得的批准水準內有足夠的配額來實現今年的銷售目標。
We're assuming that we export through the September time frame of the license. And then in the fourth quarter, we would be using our existing smelters, not just the new smelter at Manyar but also in the established smelter we have at PT smelting.
我們假設我們將在許可證規定的九月期限內進行出口。然後在第四季度,我們將使用我們現有的冶煉廠,不僅是 Manyar 的新冶煉廠,還有我們在 PT 冶煉廠的現有冶煉廠。
So within our guidance that we show, that's within our permit limits if we need to get, for some reason, if we produce more, we need to get more flexibility. We'll go and speak with the government about it. But at this point in time, we have sufficient room under our permit to meet our sales targets for this year. The work we're doing on the start-up is comprehensive.
因此,在我們所示的指導範圍內,這在我們的許可限制之內,如果出於某種原因我們需要生產更多,我們就需要獲得更多的靈活性。我們將去和政府討論此事。但目前,我們的授權空間足以實現今年的銷售目標。我們在啟動時所做的工作是全面的。
We're fortunate that Freeport as an organization has a lot of experience with smelters. Of course, we have the smelter in Huelva, Spain that we've operated for some time. We have a smelter here in the US as well. And then we have in partnership with Mitsubishi, the smelter in Indonesia.
我們很幸運,自由港作為一個組織在冶煉廠方面擁有豐富的經驗。當然,我們在西班牙韋爾瓦擁有一家冶煉廠,並且已經運作了一段時間。我們在美國也有一家冶煉廠。然後我們與印尼的冶煉廠三菱建立了合作夥伴關係。
So we're calling on resources, internal resources, external resources to plan an efficient startup. And Cory, if you want to add just some color on our startup plans and how this will play out.
因此,我們正在調動資源、內部資源、外部資源來規劃高效率的創業。科里,如果你想對我們的啟動計劃以及計劃如何實施進行一些補充說明。
Smelters are complex, we understand that, and that's why we've done so much preplanning. They're complex to start up, and we recognize that. But Cory, why don't you cover how we're planning to sequence the start up.
我們了解冶煉廠很複雜,這就是我們做這麼多預先規劃的原因。它們的啟動很複雜,我們認識到這一點。但是科里,你為什麼不介紹一下我們計劃如何安排啟動順序呢?
Cory Stevens - Senior Vice President, and President of FM Technical Services
Cory Stevens - Senior Vice President, and President of FM Technical Services
Sure. Yes. So the mechanical repairs are essentially complete and pre-commissioning and commissioning activities in the area where the fire was are well underway. In the remainder of the facility, the teams have been refining their operating practices and going through drills, and we've been basically operating those facilities, those other unit operations in preparation to combine everything with the main smelter coming online.
當然。是的。因此,機械維修工作基本上已完成,火災區域的預調試和調試活動也順利進行。在該設施的其餘部分,各團隊一直在改進他們的操作實踐並進行演習,我們基本上一直在操作這些設施,其他單元操作是為將一切與上線的主冶煉廠結合起來做準備。
So both furnaces are hot, the boilers are ready, the teams have been practicing, we've got maintenance teams and a number of support from operations and contractors with experience. So in the May time frame, we're going to start the process up and we'll essentially ramp up to 100% capacity over a six month period and plan to run 2026 at 100% capacity throughout
因此,兩個爐子都很熱,鍋爐已準備就緒,團隊一直在練習,我們有維護團隊以及來自經驗豐富的營運和承包商的大量支援。因此,我們將在 5 月啟動這項流程,並在六個月內將產能提升至 100%,並計劃在 2026 年全年以 100% 的產能運作。
Liam Fitzpatrick - Analyst
Liam Fitzpatrick - Analyst
Okay. That's great to hear. Thank you.
好的。聽到這個消息真是太好了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Katya Jancic with BMO Capital Markets.
BMO 資本市場的 Katya Jancic。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Thank you for taking my question. Maybe on the potential Bagdad expansion. If I'm not mistaken, the feasibility study was completed in '23. So is the $3.5 billion CapEx still attainable in this environment, especially with tariffs and other inflationary pressures?
感謝您回答我的問題。也許是關於巴格達的潛在擴張。如果我沒記錯的話,可行性研究是在 23 年完成的。那麼,在這種環境下,特別是在關稅和其他通膨壓力下,35億美元的資本支出是否仍可實現?
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
We are reviewing that now, and we do that with all of our projects to keep them fresh. And so we're going through a process to rereview all the economics associated with the project capital and operating costs.
我們現在正在審查這一點,並且對所有項目進行審查,以保持其新鮮度。因此,我們正在重新審查與專案資本和營運成本相關的所有經濟因素。
And so that will be part of the decision-making that we make to the end of this year, we want to get the autonomous trucks in place because that will allow us to manage the workforce that we have now. And as I said before, not have to rely on a big hiring program and less experienced people. So that's an important part of it.
因此,這將是我們在今年年底前做出的決策的一部分,我們希望安裝自動駕駛卡車,因為這將使我們能夠管理現有的勞動力。正如我之前所說,不必依賴大型招募計畫和經驗不足的人員。這是其中的重要部分。
We're also doing some work, some infrastructure work. We've boosted housing. We're doing infrastructure work on our tailings facilities to put us in a position so that when we do make the decision, we can do it in a de-risked fashion, in a more fast tracked fashion, but we want to make sure that the economics are robust.
我們也正在做一些工作,一些基礎設施工作。我們增加了住房。我們正在對尾礦設施進行基礎設施建設,以便我們能夠在做出決定時以更低風險、更快速的方式完成,但我們希望確保經濟穩健。
This is an option for us. It is where the reserves are there, and this will allow us to bring forward those values and bring forward reserves, but it's not something we have to do and we can assess the right timing. We want to bring it to market at a time when we can do it efficiently and generate the return. So that will be part of our analysis, Katja, as we go through the balance of this year and to your point, to better understand the tariffs as well.
對我們來說這是一個選擇。那裡有儲備,這將使我們能夠提前實現這些價值並提前儲備,但這不是我們必須要做的事情,我們可以評估正確的時機。我們希望在能夠高效運作並產生回報的時候將其推向市場。因此,卡佳,這將是我們分析的一部分,因為我們將回顧今年的餘額,並按照你的觀點,更好地理解關稅。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Thanks, Kathleen.
謝謝,凱瑟琳。
Operator
Operator
Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.
Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。
Timna Tanners - Analyst
Timna Tanners - Analyst
Hey, good morning. I want to ask a bigger picture question, if I could. In light of the different levels of support being provided to the copper industry from the US government. Are there any measures that you can take to accelerate some of these efforts? Do you think about adding smelting?
嘿,早安。如果可以的話,我想問一個更大的問題。鑑於美國政府對銅業提供不同程度的支持。您可以採取什麼措施來加速這些努力?您是否考慮添加冶煉?
The world is oversupplied, clearly, but not in the US. Any update on the 45X benefits? Just like to hear about what incremental you might be able to do given the new initiatives that we hear about from the term administration. Thanks again.
顯然,全球都供應過剩,但美國卻不是這樣。45X 福利有任何更新嗎?只是想聽聽,根據我們從任期管理中聽到的新舉措,您可以做哪些增量工作。再次感謝。
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Timna. Actually, Freeport is in a terrific position to expand its US production. We already had several things underway. As we talked about, we're fully integrated.
謝謝,蒂姆娜。事實上,自由港在擴大其美國生產方面處於極其有利的地位。我們已在著手進行幾件事。正如我們所說的,我們已經完全整合了。
So we're producing concentrate and those go to our smelter in Arizona. We also, a big part of what we do in the US, as you know, is leach production where we don't need a smelter, and we can produce leach pounds very efficiently.
因此,我們生產精礦並將其運送到亞利桑那州的冶煉廠。如您所知,我們在美國的業務很大一部分是浸出生產,我們不需要冶煉廠,而且我們可以非常有效率地生產浸出磅。
We were already on that path to increase our leach production capacity and, again, produce refined copper. We've got innovation around leaching concentrate. We've got a facility which we're expanding in the US to leach concentrates. Again, that avoids big capital intensity of a smelter.
我們已經走上了這條道路,以提高我們的浸出生產能力,並再次生產精煉銅。我們在浸出精礦方面取得了創新。我們在美國有一個正在擴建的設施,用於浸出精礦。這也避免了冶煉廠的資本密集度過高。
And then potentially, longer run can look at potentially expanding the Miami smelter to produce more cathode.
然後,從長遠來看,可以考慮擴大邁阿密冶煉廠,以生產更多的陰極。
There even is a potential, one of the areas that the US is interested in is there's a lot of scrap produced in the US that ends up getting exported. We're going to look into can Freeport use existing infrastructure and low capital intensity projects to potentially process scrap material in the US.
甚至存在潛力,美國感興趣的領域之一是美國生產的大量廢料最終都會出口。我們將研究自由港是否可以使用現有的基礎設施和低資本密集度項目來在美國處理廢棄物。
So of all the things out there that you hear about, Freeport really is in a good position, because our projects are brownfield in nature, we have infrastructure, we have the workforce in the area, we have community support. And so I feel, in many ways, a Freeport as the poster child when it comes to what the US is trying to achieve in bringing back, expanding copper production in the US.
所以,在您聽到的所有事情中,自由港確實處於有利地位,因為我們的項目本質上是棕地,我們擁有基礎設施,我們在該地區擁有勞動力,我們擁有社區支持。因此,從很多方面來看,我認為自由港是美國恢復和擴大銅產量努力的典型代表。
Now we recognize that the US has some real positives in its regulatory framework, but the resources, as you're aware, are generally lower grade are more mature and generally lower grade than some of the operations internationally. So that's where these incentives come in to really support not only the base production in the US, but incentivize new investments and new production.
現在我們認識到美國的監管框架確實有一些積極的方面,但正如您所知,與國際上的一些業務相比,這些資源的品味普遍較低、更成熟且品質普遍較低。因此,這些激勵措施不僅能真正支持美國的基礎生產,還能激勵新的投資和新的生產。
And that's why we're interested in the 45X potential credits, where the executive order already says that copper is a critical mineral, but we need to have legislation to modify the treasury regulations to allow for copper to be listed under 45X of the IRA to be eligible for the 10% production credit. That would be very, very helpful.
這就是我們對 45X 潛在信用感興趣的原因,行政命令已經指出銅是一種關鍵礦物,但我們需要立法修改財政法規,以允許銅被列入 IRA 的 45X 之下,從而有資格獲得 10% 的生產信用。那將會非常非常有幫助。
But as you know, with tax policy, there's lots of pluses and minuses and give and takes going on and so we'll just have to keep advocating for the benefits to the US national security of having copper produced domestically, and that's something that we'll continue to work on.
但如你所知,稅收政策有許多優點和缺點,也有很多取捨,所以我們必須繼續倡導在國內生產銅對美國國家安全的好處,這也是我們將繼續努力的。
But Timna, we have great opportunities in the US. This Lone Star district has a huge resource. We have visions that the Lone Star/Safford district could be another Morenci with both leach production and concentrate production in the future.
但是蒂姆娜,我們在美國有很大機會。這個孤星區有著龐大的資源。我們設想,未來 Lone Star/Safford 區可以成為另一個 Morenci,同時進行浸出液生產和精礦生產。
Of course, we talked about Bagdad. We talked about our leach initiative. So we're in a really good position to help the US and its objectives to bring more copper production into the US.
當然,我們談論了巴格達。我們討論了我們的浸出計劃。因此,我們處於非常有利的位置,可以幫助美國實現其增加銅產量的目標。
Timna Tanners - Analyst
Timna Tanners - Analyst
Okay. Thanks for the overview. We'll look forward to updates from you and from the administration.
好的。感謝您的概述。我們期待您和政府的最新消息。
Operator
Operator
Daniel Major with UBS.
瑞銀的丹尼爾·梅傑(Daniel Major)。
Daniel Major - Analyst
Daniel Major - Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. There is a question on the change in the cost guidance for North America. I noticed site production and delivery costs have increased somewhat, albeit not that much. But note in note 6 in the presentation, it said that this excludes the impact of additional tariff costs.
你好,謝謝你回答我的問題。有一個關於北美成本指導變化的問題。我注意到網站的製作和交付成本有所增加,儘管不是很多。但請注意,簡報的第 6 號註釋中說,這不包括額外關稅成本的影響。
Can you give us a sense of what those impacts are? I think you mentioned a 5% increase in cost of purchased inputs, how much of your cost base does that account for? And what's the upside to this number if you're unable to mitigate some of those impacts?
您能讓我們了解一下這些影響是什麼嗎?我認為您提到了購買投入成本增加了 5%,這佔您的成本基礎的多少?如果您無法減輕其中的一些影響,那麼這個數字有什麼好處呢?
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for the question. We did disclose in our earnings release when these tariffs came out, we began talking with our suppliers. The direct impacts that we have and where we're the vendor of record are material. And we are working to diversify our supply chain to mitigate those impacts.
謝謝你的提問。我們確實在收益報告中揭露了這些關稅出台後我們就開始與供應商進行談判。我們產生的直接影響以及我們作為記錄供應商的影響都是實質的。我們正在努力實現供應鏈多樣化,以減輕這些影響。
The bigger impact as we're working with our suppliers is potentially the costs that they incur on the various components that they purchase. And as you can imagine, it gets complicated because it's just not one supply chain, when they're fabricating something, they have multiple supply chains that are involved.
我們與供應商合作時產生的更大影響可能是他們在購買各種組件時產生的成本。你可以想像,事情變得複雜,因為它不僅僅是一個供應鏈,當他們製造某種東西時,他們涉及多個供應鏈。
And so they're going through an analysis themselves to understand what the potential impacts are and what they can do to potentially diversify their sources to mitigate these impacts. When we look at our overall costs in the US, about 40% of those costs are related to labor and services that wouldn't be subject to tariffs.
因此,他們自己正在進行分析,以了解潛在的影響是什麼,以及他們可以採取哪些措施來多樣化他們的來源以減輕這些影響。當我們查看我們在美國的總成本時,大約 40% 的成本與不受關稅影響的勞動力和服務有關。
So it's the balance, the other piece, that we applied the estimate of 5% to. Of that, when you look at the components of the potential 5% impact, the biggest driver is the 145% Chinese tariff.
因此,我們將 5% 的估算應用於平衡部分,即另一部分。其中,當你查看潛在 5% 影響的組成部分時,最大的驅動因素是 145% 的中國關稅。
And while the dollar amount, as we've talked with our vendors, the dollar amount of Chinese purchase components in their supply chain, is not significant, the magnitude of 145% is what adds up quickly. And so if that's reduced and if we can mitigate that this tariff impact will be reduced significantly, potential impact will be reduced significantly.
儘管從美元金額來看(正如我們與供應商交談時所言),中國在其供應鏈中採購零件的金額並不大,但 145% 的幅度卻很快就累積起來了。因此,如果我們能夠減少這一數字,並且能夠減輕這種關稅影響,那麼潛在影響也將大大減少。
I'm confident that working with our suppliers, we can find ways to mitigate these impacts. We wanted to set up a system to really understand the various components so that when we get an attempt from a vendor to pass through something that we can confirm and verify and that we can work collaboratively with them to source products that do not have high tariffs with them.
我相信,透過與我們的供應商合作,我們可以找到減輕這些影響的方法。我們希望建立一個系統來真正了解各種組件,以便當我們從供應商那裡嘗試傳遞某些東西時,我們可以確認和驗證,並且我們可以與他們合作採購沒有高關稅的產品。
So I feel confident that we can mitigate this. We all would love to see more certainty and these issues get resolved because it does impact these conversations and trade flows, et cetera. But I do feel confident that we can find ways to mitigate these potential impacts.
因此我相信我們能夠緩解這種情況。我們都希望看到更多的確定性並且這些問題得到解決,因為它確實會影響這些對話和貿易流動等等。但我確實相信我們能夠找到減輕這些潛在影響的方法。
Daniel Major - Analyst
Daniel Major - Analyst
Okay. Sorry, just a quick follow-up on the same subject. What proportion of the cost base is exposed to energy, particularly oil, Obviously, we're seeing some benefit there?
好的。抱歉,我只是對同一主題進行快速跟進。成本基礎中有多少比例與能源有關,特別是石油,顯然,我們看到了一些好處?
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
We have not, we basically use the same oil price assumption in our guidance that we used at the start of the year. And you are right to say that there is benefit. We purchased about 100 million gallons of diesel in the US. And right now, the price is probably $0.20 a gallon or so less than what we assumed in our original forecast going into the quarter.
我們沒有,我們在指導中基本上使用了與年初相同的油價假設。您說得對,有好處。我們在美國購買了大約 1 億加侖柴油。目前,油價可能比我們最初對本季的預測低了每加侖 0.20 美元左右。
Electricity is another component, and we have seen some pressures in that area. We have seen some slight tick up in electricity, but just in the oil component that is -- and I'm talking about 100 million gallons, that's specific to North America.
電力是另一個因素,我們已經看到該領域存在一些壓力。我們看到電力略有增加,但僅就石油部分而言——我說的是 1 億加侖,具體到北美。
Daniel Major - Analyst
Daniel Major - Analyst
Great thanks a lot.
非常好,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Chris Lafemina with Jefferies.
傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的克里斯拉菲米納 (Chris Lafemina)。
Christopher Lafemina - Analyst
Christopher Lafemina - Analyst
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. Hi Kathleen, Richard, Maree. Hope you're doing well. Just wanted to ask on the buybacks. So you've been running a net debt level that's well below your targeted net debt threshold.
你好,感謝有這個機會。嗨,凱瑟琳、理查、瑪麗。希望你一切都好。只是想問一下回購的情況。因此,您的淨債務水準遠低於目標淨債務門檻。
And you're kind of entering this period now where free cash flow should materially improve when you have this COMEX premium, you have high gold prices, you're going to have rising volumes, cost in the US coming down.
現在您正進入這樣一個時期,當您擁有 COMEX 溢價、黃金價格高企、交易量上升、美國成本下降時,自由現金流應該會大幅改善。
I mean, everything is kind of heading in the right direction. And cash flow should get very strong, and your share price has been kind of a victim of the macro, and it's been relatively weak, recovering a little bit now, but still at a low level.
我的意思是,一切都朝著正確的方向發展。現金流應該會變得非常強勁,而你的股價一直是宏觀經濟的受害者,相對較弱,現在有所回升,但仍處於較低水平。
And back when your stock was in the 50s and free cash flow was zero, it made sense to not be, maybe not be really accelerating the pace of the buybacks. But I would think where we are today and where you're heading the attractiveness of repurchasing your shares really almost can't be beat.
當你的股票價格在 50 美元左右,而自由現金流為零時,不加快回購步伐是合理的,也許真的不應該加快回購步伐。但我認為,就我們今天的狀況和你們未來的發展方向而言,回購股票的吸引力幾乎是無可比擬的。
And especially when you consider the focus is on kind of a pivot to growth, you can shrink your share count, you can grow your volumes on a per share basis in an accretive way, and you can use free cash flow to do that and maintain a very strong balance sheet, which is a pretty compelling combination of factors.
尤其是當你考慮到重點是轉向成長時,你可以減少股票數量,你可以以增值的方式增加每股交易量,你可以使用自由現金流來做到這一點並保持非常強勁的資產負債表,這是一個非常引人注目的因素組合。
So just really wondering how you think about potentially ramping up the buyback if market conditions continue to be as they are, I mean, back in the 30s, do you just buy back more aggressively now? Or do you want to save money for the capital projects you have in the pipeline?
所以我真的想知道,如果市場狀況繼續保持現狀,您會如何考慮加強回購力度,我的意思是,回到 30 年代,您現在是否會更積極地回購?或者您想為正在進行的資本項目節省資金?
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for that, Chris. And we're balancing all those things. But we agree with what everything you just said, and particularly as we go through the balance of this year. In the first quarter, we had this maintenance and some timing in the numbers. But as we go through the balance of the year, our cash flow should improve.
謝謝你,克里斯。我們正在平衡所有這些因素。但我們同意您剛才所說的一切,特別是在我們回顧今年的剩餘時間時。在第一季度,我們進行了維護,並對數字進行了一些計時。但隨著我們度過今年的平衡,我們的現金流應該會改善。
You highlighted the potential premium. If that continues, that will allow us to have more free cash flow, that goes right to the bottom line. And so we see the disconnect in the long-term outlook for the company in terms of what the value of these assets are relative to how our stock has performed relative to these macro issues.
您強調了潛在的溢價。如果這種情況持續下去,我們將擁有更多的自由現金流,這直接影響到我們的獲利。因此,我們看到,從這些資產的價值相對於我們的股票在這些宏觀問題上的表現來看,公司的長期前景存在脫節。
And so we really want to be aggressive about the buyback, but we also want to make sure we're balancing our objectives to maintain a strong balance sheet and to pursue our growth plans. So we're going to be balancing all that. We've got an established policy to direct free cash flow to shareholder returns.
因此,我們確實希望積極進行回購,但我們也希望確保平衡我們的目標,以保持強勁的資產負債表並追求我們的成長計劃。所以我們要平衡這一切。我們制定了將自由現金流用於股東回報的政策。
And as free cash flows increase, that will give us this opportunity. But in general, what everything you said, we agree with. And Richard, I don't know if you want to add anything to those comments?
隨著自由現金流的增加,我們將獲得這個機會。但總的來說,我們同意你所說的一切。理查德,我不知道您是否想補充這些評論?
Richard Adkerson - Chairman of the Board
Richard Adkerson - Chairman of the Board
Chris, I'll just say I'm totally aligned with what you said as Chairman of the company and the shareholder, I agree totally with that, and we're going to be, history has taught us to be disciplined, but we're in such good shape and as the cash flows increase, we will talk with our board, and I believe we'll have great support for buying more shares back.
克里斯,我只想說,我完全同意你作為公司董事長和股東所說的,我完全同意這一點,而且我們將會這樣做,歷史告訴我們要嚴守紀律,但我們的狀況非常好,隨著現金流的增加,我們會與董事會進行溝通,我相信我們會得到大力支持來回購更多股票。
Christopher Lafemina - Analyst
Christopher Lafemina - Analyst
That's great, thank you for that.
太好了,謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research.
伯恩斯坦研究公司的鮑伯‧布拉克特 (Bob Brackett)。
Bob Brackett - Analyst
Bob Brackett - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning. Returning back to Bagdad 2X expansion. If I think about the discretionary CapEx being put into Bagdad 2X expansion this year, it's almost $0.5 billion. You've stated a few hundred million, $300 million perhaps next year.
謝謝。早安.回到巴格達 2X 擴充。如果我考慮今年投入巴格達 2X 擴建的可自由支配的資本支出,那將接近 5 億美元。您說過明年可能會有幾億美元,甚至 3 億美元。
If the price of admission is $3.5 billion, and you've effectively sunk approaching $800 million the investment decision is always going to be a money for a decision. And doesn't that make it more and more obvious that Bagdad 2X is going to move forward?
如果入場費是 35 億美元,而你實際上已經投入了近 8 億美元,那麼投資決策永遠都是用錢來換取決策。這難道不是越來越明顯地表明巴格達 2X 將會繼續前進嗎?
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
One thing to keep in mind on the money we're spending right now at Bagdad, A good bit of that is money that we would have to spend in any case in the future to build up the infrastructure for tailings. So at some point, you run out of tailings storage and you need the storage there that we need over time.
關於我們現在在巴格達花費的資金,有一件事要記住,其中很大一部分是我們將來無論如何都要花的錢,用於建造尾礦基礎設施。因此,在某個時候,尾礦儲存量會用完,並且您需要在那裡儲存我們長期需要的資源。
So the money that we're spending now doesn't commit us to the project. It just accelerates when we would have otherwise had to spend the money.
因此,我們現在花的錢並不能讓我們投入這個計畫。當我們本來需要花錢的時候,它卻加速了。
So it's really a low-risk investment that we're making to put us in a position that when the project is ready to go when the decision is made, we don't have to spend the money and we don't have to take the time to put the starter dam in.
因此,這確實是一項低風險的投資,當工程準備好並做出決定時,我們無需花錢,也無需花時間建造起始壩。
So this funding that we're doing now is not part of the $3.5 billion. There may be some small amounts as part of the $3.5 billion. But this funding is principally related to tailings infrastructure that we'd have to do anyway down the road.
因此,我們現在提供的這筆資金不屬於 35 億美元的一部分。35億美元可能包含一些小額款項。但這筆資金主要與我們以後無論如何都必須進行的尾礦基礎建設有關。
We're calling the discretionary because we don't have to do it now. So if we decided tomorrow not to move forward right now with Bagdad, we'd probably defer the spending on the tailings infrastructure.
我們稱之為自由裁量權,因為我們現在不必這麼做。因此,如果我們明天決定現在不推進巴格達項目,我們可能會推遲對尾礦基礎設施的支出。
Bob Brackett - Analyst
Bob Brackett - Analyst
Very clear. Thanks for that.
非常清楚。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities.
美國銀行證券公司的 Lawson Winder。
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, Richard, Kathleen and Maree. Thank you for fitting me in. Just thinking about the US policy environment and the fact that Freeport is by far the largest player in the United States. And then looking at it from a merger and acquisition overlay point of view, I mean does it make sense for Freeport to potentially be accumulating assets in the US today?
非常感謝,接線生。早上好,理查、凱瑟琳和瑪麗。謝謝你幫我安排。只需考慮美國的政策環境以及自由港迄今為止是美國最大的參與者。然後從併購覆蓋的角度來看,我的意思是,自由港今天在美國累積資產是否有意義?
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
We always look Lawson, we always look at opportunities. We have a very sizable resource position in the US. We have the leach stockpiles, which is a huge resource. And then we additionally have very significant undeveloped resources in our footprint. So we have a very long-term pipeline in the US, but if there are opportunities for synergies or things that we could enhance our position, we are certainly interested in looking at those things.
我們總是關注勞森,我們總是關注機會。我們在美國擁有非常可觀的資源。我們有浸出液庫存,這是一筆龐大的資源。此外,我們的足跡中還有大量未開發的資源。因此,我們在美國擁有非常長期的管道,但如果有協同效應的機會或可以增強我們地位的事情,我們當然有興趣研究這些事情。
And there's a lot more activity in the US, a lot more potential projects in the US than there has been in the past. Many of those don't have smelters. And while people have historically thought it's not great to invest money in smelters, we already have the smelter. We already have the tank house capacity to make refined copper.
與過去相比,美國的活動更多,潛在項目也更多。其中許多企業沒有冶煉廠。儘管人們歷來認為投資冶煉廠並不是好事,但我們已經有了冶煉廠。我們已經擁有生產精煉銅的電解槽容量。
We already have the concentrate leach facilities that are expandable. So we have a lot of things that could provide potential synergies. And so we'll continue to look, but we already have a very strong position in the US.
我們已經擁有可擴展的精礦浸出設施。因此,我們有很多東西可以提供潛在的協同效應。因此我們會繼續關注,但我們在美國已經佔據了非常強大的地位。
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Okay, great. Thank you so much.
好的,太好了。太感謝了。
Operator
Operator
Brian MacArthur with Raymond James.
布萊恩·麥克阿瑟和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。
Brian MacArthur - Analyst
Brian MacArthur - Analyst
Good morning and thank you for taking my question. You talked about earlier in Indonesia, you have permits to the September 30, and you can use the smelter in the fourth quarter to meet your shipments this year. And you also took down your guidance for cost this year.
早上好,感謝您回答我的問題。您之前談到印度尼西亞,您有截至 9 月 30 日的許可證,您可以在第四季度使用該冶煉廠來滿足今年的出貨量。您也下調了今年的成本指導。
Was that just the gold price being higher? Or did you make an assumption that the 7.5% export tax went away in the fourth quarter at Indonesia because the smelter is up and running? Or should I think of that duty going away as an upside as I go into 2026? Or how do you see that developing?
這僅僅是因為金價上漲嗎?或者您是否假設由於冶煉廠已投入運營,印尼第四季度取消了 7.5% 的出口稅?或者我應該認為,隨著 2026 年的到來,這項義務的取消是一種好處?或者您認為其發展情況如何?
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
In terms of our Indonesian costs for the year, we had projected a net credit of $0.27, and now it's $0.40. Most of that is related to the change in byproduct credits. So that's what most of it is related to. We only pay a duty on sales that are exported, concentrate sales, and so in the fourth quarter, we don't have projected to pay a duty in the fourth quarter because we're using our internal smelters.
就我們今年在印尼的成本而言,我們預計淨信貸為 0.27 美元,而現在為 0.40 美元。其中大部分與副產品信用的變化有關。這就是大部分內容所涉及的內容。我們只對出口銷售、精礦銷售繳納關稅,因此在第四季度,我們預期不需要繳納關稅,因為我們使用的是內部冶煉廠。
But the timing may have changed from our last update, but as a whole, in our previous estimates only included duties for what we were exporting.
但時間可能與我們上次更新時有所不同,但總體而言,我們先前的估計僅包括我們出口產品的關稅。
Brian MacArthur - Analyst
Brian MacArthur - Analyst
Great. That's very clear.
偉大的。這非常清楚。
Richard Adkerson - Chairman of the Board
Richard Adkerson - Chairman of the Board
And I just want to say, Cory and his team have just done an outstanding job. It was unfortunately, we had that fire. It was a force majeure event. And we had a lot of uncertainties going into dealing with the repairs. And these guys have just done an incredible job of making the progress they've made to date.
我只想說,科里和他的團隊做得非常出色。不幸的是,我們遭遇了火災。這是不可抗力事件。在處理修復問題時,我們面臨許多不確定性。這些人迄今為止所取得的進步令人驚嘆。
Operator
Operator
Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.
摩根大通的 Bill Peterson。
William Peterson - Analyst
William Peterson - Analyst
Yeah, hi, good morning team, and thanks for speaking to the end. I might have missed it, but on leaching, you're recently our sustained 200 million per year. I guess you saw a modest decline in the first quarter, quarter on quarter.
是的,大家好,早安,感謝你們的發言。我可能錯過了,但在浸出方面,你最近每年持續獲得 2 億美元。我想你會看到第一季環比出現了小幅下降。
Was this decline just kind of typical variability? And maybe more importantly, looking ahead, what are the key areas to improve to reach your 75 million pound quarterly rate exiting the year? I guess how should we think about the trajectory?
這種下降只是一種典型的變異嗎?也許更重要的是,展望未來,為了在年底實現 7,500 萬英鎊的季度獲利,需要改進的關鍵領域有哪些?我想我們該如何思考這個軌跡?
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
In terms of getting to the 300 million pound per year run rate, we have several projects that are underway, these are not, these don't require new technologies. This is the scaling effort of essentially scaling up what we're already doing.
為了達到每年 3 億英鎊的運行率,我們有幾個項目正在進行中,這些項目不需要新技術。這實際上是對我們已在做的事情進行擴展的努力。
Some examples of that include what we call leach everywhere where we already have identified areas within the stockpile that were difficult to get to physically. And so we've come up with a way to lay the irrigation lines using helicopters that we assemble along very long football field of irrigation lines and the helicopter goes and places these irrigation lines and areas that are very hard to get to.
這方面的例子包括我們所說的“隨處浸出”,我們已經確定了庫存中難以物理到達的區域。因此,我們想出了一個辦法,使用直升機鋪設灌溉管道,我們沿著很長的足球場長的灌溉管道組裝直升機,然後直升機前往很難到達的地區鋪設灌溉管道。
We are increasing the number of helicopter trips that we were doing previously. That was part of the reason why some of the projects that we had in the first quarter, we came in very close to what we thought, but we probably could have produced a little bit more if our projects have been on schedule. But by the end of the year, we're going to have more runs of helicopters and not just at Morenci, we're starting this technique at other sites.
我們正在增加之前的直升機飛行次數。這就是為什麼我們第一季的一些專案的產量非常接近我們的預期,但如果我們的專案按計劃進行,我們可能會產出更多一些。但到今年年底,我們將有更多的直升機出動,而且不僅僅是在莫倫西,我們還將在其他地點開始採用這種技術。
The other thing that we have had success with is what we call deep raffinate drilling, where instead of just letting the solutions drip from irrigation lines at the top of the stockpile. We're actually drilling and putting solutions, targeted solution at strategic places within the stockpile that our data analytics and sensors have told us would benefit from more direct application of solutions.
我們成功的另一件事是所謂的深層提餘液鑽探,即讓溶液不再只是從庫存頂部的灌溉管道中滴落。我們實際上正在鑽探並將解決方案、有針對性的解決方案放置在庫存中的戰略位置,我們的數據分析和感測器告訴我們,更直接地應用解決方案將受益。
And so we and with some third parties have figured out a way to scale the deep raffinate drilling and taking some pages from what's being used in other industries, we're able to apply the seat thrilling at a bigger scale. We've got several of those in place now to -- that will boost production in the future.
因此,我們和一些第三方找到了一種擴大深層提餘液鑽井規模的方法,並藉鑒了其他行業的一些經驗,我們能夠在更大範圍內應用座椅驚險技術。我們現在已經實施了其中的幾項措施,這將有助於提高未來的產量。
And this is separate from getting to the 300, but we also have some trials going on with new additives that we have successfully tested in a lab and are doing it at scale in some of those strategic stockpiles. And so we've got an additive test going on now. And the results of that will be very helpful for us to guide our future.
這與達到 300 個目標無關,我們也正在對一些新添加劑進行試驗,這些添加劑已在實驗室中成功測試,並且正在一些戰略儲備中大規模進行。所以我們現在正在進行加法測試。其結果將對我們的未來指導非常有幫助。
The other thing that we're doing that will help us as we look into 2026 and beyond to get to the 400 level is heat trials where we started, it's been proven that the hotter the temperature within the stockpiles, the better the recovery of copper. And we started with insulating the stockpiles to retain heat.
我們正在進行的另一項工作是進行熱試驗,這將有助於我們在 2026 年及以後達到 400 的水平,事實證明,庫存內的溫度越高,銅的回收率就越高。我們首先對庫存進行隔熱以保持熱量。
And now we've got a project to actually heat the raffinate injection the solution that's going into the stockpiles. We've got a project at El Abra that we expect will allow us to start testing heat there in 2026. And then we've got big opportunities at Morenci and one of the heat sources that we're pursuing that Morenci is geothermal steam which would be very low cost.
現在我們有一個項目,實際上是加熱注入庫存的殘液溶液。我們在 El Abra 有一個項目,預計我們可以在 2026 年開始在那裡測試熱量。我們在莫倫西有很大的發展機會,我們在莫倫西尋求的熱源之一是地熱蒸汽,其成本非常低。
So there are some new technologies that we're pursuing that would help us go from 300 beyond, but to get to $300 million, we feel confident we can do it with existing technologies, just doing it at scale.
因此,我們正在追求一些新技術,這些技術可以幫助我們實現 3 億美元以上的目標,但要達到 3 億美元,我們有信心利用現有技術,大規模地實現這一目標。
William Peterson - Analyst
William Peterson - Analyst
Yes. If I can follow up on the leaching and also in the last part of your answer. I guess in terms of the supply chain, both the raw materials, additives, equipment, heating sources, are you using non-China sources for these, I guess, currently key projects?
是的。如果我可以跟進浸出情況以及你答案的最後一部分。我想就供應鏈而言,原料、添加劑、設備、熱源,您是否在這些目前的重點項目中使用非中國來源?
And I guess on the path to 800, are you able to achieve that with a non-China supply chain more to the point, can you achieve this with the US based supply chain?
我想,在實現 800 的目標的過程中,您是否能夠透過非中國的供應鏈實現這一目標,更確切地說,您能否透過美國的供應鏈實現這一目標?
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
We are testing a variety of additives, and that's a big point of what we're looking at is does the additive work, number one? And is there a robust supply chain for that additive? And to answer your question, what we've identified does not rely on China. And there is some of the product that's produced in the US. Some of the technology is not necessarily US technology.
我們正在測試各種添加劑,我們關注的重點是添加劑是否有效,這是最重要的。這種添加劑是否有強大的供應鏈?回答你的問題,我們所確定的並不依賴中國。其中一些產品是在美國生產的。有些技術不一定是美國技術。
But that's part of what we're doing is making sure there's, you don't just go down a path and you don't have a supply chain for this additive and that there's efficient ways to recycle the additive as well, so you minimize the use of it.
但我們正在做的事情之一就是確保你不會只是沿著一條路走下去,而你沒有這種添加劑的供應鏈,並且有有效的方法來回收這種添加劑,從而最大限度地減少它的使用。
So there are a number of things going on, but we really excited, Bill, about the potential here and is no better company that can take advantage of this given we've got 40 billion pounds of copper sitting in the stockpiles that we thought was waste before and now we're very excited about essentially having a new mine in the US, a new low-cost mine in the US, producing 800 million pounds a year, essentially. So it's very, very exciting.
所以有很多事情正在發生,但是比爾,我們對這裡的潛力感到非常興奮,而且沒有比我們更好的公司可以利用這一點,因為我們有 400 億磅的銅儲存在庫存中,我們以前認為這些都是廢物,現在我們非常興奮在美國有了一個新的礦山,一個新的低成本礦山,每年基本上可以生產 8 億磅。這非常非常令人興奮。
William Peterson - Analyst
William Peterson - Analyst
Terrific. Thanks again and nice job in a quarterly execution.
了不起。再次感謝,季度執行情況很好。
Operator
Operator
Now we will turn the call over to management for any closing remarks.
現在我們將把電話轉給管理階層,請他們發表結束語。
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Kathleen Quirk - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, everyone, for your participation, and we look forward to continuing to keep you updated if you have any follow-ups. David, is available to address them. Thanks so much for your attention and interest.
感謝大家的參與,如果您有任何後續消息,我們期待繼續向您通報。David,可以解答這些問題。非常感謝您的關注和興趣。
Richard Adkerson - Chairman of the Board
Richard Adkerson - Chairman of the Board
Thank you all.
謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
女士們、先生們,我們今天的通話到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。