費利浦·麥克莫蘭銅金 (FCX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Freeport-McMoRan Fourth Quarter Conference Call. (Operator Instructions).

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加自由港-麥克莫蘭第四季電話會議。 （操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Kathleen Quirk, President. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在我想將會議交給主席凱瑟琳·奎克女士。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to the Freeport-McMoRan conference call. Earlier this morning, we reported our fourth quarter and full year 2023 operating and financial results, and a copy of today's press release, the supplemental schedules and slides are available on our website at fcx.com. Our conference call today is being broadcast live on the Internet, and anyone may listen to the call by accessing our website home page and clicking on the webcast link for the conference call. In addition to analysts and investors, the financial press has been invited to listen to today's call, and a replay of the webcast will be available on our website later today.

謝謝你，早安。歡迎參加自由港麥克金公司電話會議。今天早些時候，我們報告了第四季度和 2023 年全年營運和財務業績，今天的新聞稿副本、補充時間表和幻燈片可在我們的網站 fcx.com 上取得。我們今天的電話會議正在網路上進行直播，任何人都可以透過造訪我們的網站主頁並點擊電話會議的網路直播連結來收聽電話會議。除了分析師和投資者之外，財經媒體也被邀請收聽今天的電話會議，今天晚些時候我們的網站上將提供網路廣播的重播。

Before we begin our comments, I'd like to remind everyone, today's press release and certain of our comments on the call include non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements, and that actual results may differ materially. We'd like to refer everyone to the cautionary language included in our press release and presentation materials and to the risk factors described in our SEC filings.

在我們開始發表評論之前，我想提醒大家，今天的新聞稿和我們在電話會議上的某些評論包括非公認會計原則措施和前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們希望大家注意我們的新聞稿和簡報資料中包含的警告語言以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的風險因素。

Also on the call with me today are Richard Adkerson, our Chairman and CEO; Maree Robertson, our Chief Financial Officer; Josh Olmsted, our COO of the Americas; Mark Johnson, Operating Officer for Indonesia; Mike Kendrick, who runs our Molybdenum business; and Steve Higgins, who's our Chief Administrative Officer. We'll start the call with some opening comments from Richard and then we'll go through the slide presentation materials and then open up the call for questions.

今天與我通話的還有我們的董事長兼執行長理查德‧阿德克森 (Richard Adkerson)； Maree Robertson，我們的財務長；喬許‧奧姆斯特德 (Josh Olmsted)，我們的美洲營運長；馬克‧約翰遜 (Mark Johnson)，印尼營運長； Mike Kendrick，負責我們的鉬業務；以及我們的首席行政官史蒂夫希金斯 (Steve Higgins)。我們將以理查德的一些開場評論開始電話會議，然後我們將瀏覽幻燈片演示材料，然後開始提問。

So I'll turn it over to Richard.

所以我會把它交給理查。

Okay. Good morning, everyone. As you can see, our first quarter was really a sound quarter and outstanding in several respects in terms of our operations. It was really led by PT-FI during the whole year of 2023. We began our ramp-up in 2019 of the underground, and now we are fully operationally and the team has been setting records consistently out there and it just outperformed for the full year and faces some really challenges, which is just part of that business. But I'm very proud of our PT-FI team at job site in Jakarta.

好的。大家，早安。正如您所看到的，我們的第一季確實是一個穩健的季度，並且在我們的營運方面在多個方面都表現出色。 2023 年全年，它確實是由 PT-FI 領導的。我們在 2019 年開始了地下的提升，現在我們已經全面投入運營，團隊一直在創造記錄，而且表現優於整個項目。今年並面臨一些真正的挑戰，這只是該業務的一部分。但我為雅加達工作現場的 PT-FI 團隊感到非常自豪。

We are making great progress in fulfilling our 2018 commitment to the government to invest in down streaming and the copper concentrate business. In December, I was there for the inauguration of the expansion of the older smelter, PT Smelting, with President, Joko Widodo, and that was a good event. And then with our new smelter at Manyar in Eastern Java, we reached an important 90% milestone at the end of the year, and we're progressing for physical completion of the smelter and ramping it up on schedule in 2024.

我們在履行 2018 年對政府投資下游和銅精礦業務的承諾方面正在取得重大進展。 12 月，我與總裁 Joko Widodo 一起參加了老冶煉廠 PT Smelting 擴建的落成典禮，那是一件好事。然後，我們在東爪哇 Manyar 的新冶煉廠在今年年底達到了 90% 的重要里程碑，我們正在努力實現冶煉廠的實際竣工，並在 2024 年按計劃提高產量。

A couple of words about the markets. It continues to be the micro versus macro story. Notably, in 2023, the macro factors strengthen notably, 2023 had long been forecasted to be a year of surplus because of new mines coming on stream, but it ended up being a small deficit, and at the same time there were stronger-than-expected demand for copper in the United States and in China in spite all the issues of China's property business, other sectors created notable growth for copper in China.

關於市場的幾句話。這仍然是微觀與宏觀的故事。值得注意的是，2023年，宏觀因素顯著走強，原本因新礦投產而預計2023年將是盈餘的一年，結果卻出現了小幅赤字，同時也出現了強於——美國和中國對銅的預期需求儘管中國房地產業存在種種問題，但其他行業為中國銅帶來了顯著增長。

Then there were the supply shortfalls throughout the industry for some significant mines and these for range of factors that are kind of common to our business. The copper business -- mining business is a tough business, but it was political issues in some countries, community issues, and then operating issues. As a result of all that, inventories of copper around the world are at historically low levels and the inventory levels are really inconsistent with the current copper price. The copper price clearly been driven by macroeconomic factors.

然後，整個行業中一些重要的礦場都出現了供應短缺，而這些因素對我們的業務來說是常見的一系列因素。銅業務－採礦業務是一項艱難的業務，但它是一些國家的政治問題、社區問題，然後是營運問題。受此影響，全球銅庫存處於歷史低位，庫存水準與當前銅價確實不符。銅價明顯受到宏觀經濟因素的推動。

The currency, the strong U.S. dollar carryover effects of inflation, government fiscal policies. And there are concerns about economies in China and Europe. But if the macro outlook -- and I'll just say when the macro outlook improves, watch out for the copper price.

貨幣方面，美元強勁，通膨的結轉效應，政府財政政策。人們對中國和歐洲的經濟感到擔憂。但如果宏觀前景——我只想說，當宏觀前景改善時，請留意銅價。

Looking ahead, the world is going to need significantly more copper in the future for a variety of factors. The world is becoming increasingly electrified, and that's what copper is used for. And it's at a time when the industry is simply not investing to grow production, that the outlook indicates that will be required for economic, operational and resource nationalism, a series of factors, but the facts are there's an outlook for strong demand and supply challenges. That's why I'm so personally confident about where Freeport is positioned and pleased with it.

展望未來，由於多種因素，世界未來將需要更多的銅。世界變得越來越電氣化，這就是銅的用途。正是在該行業根本沒有投資增加產量的時候，前景表明經濟、營運和資源民族主義等一系列因素將需要這種投資，但事實是，前景將面臨強勁的需求和供應挑戰。這就是為什麼我個人對自由港的定位如此充滿信心並對此感到滿意。

We have high-volume existing production that's sustainable. We have large sustainable reserves and resources. We have growth opportunities that we will pursue prudently from this really exciting Leaching initiatives that Kathleen will be talking about, and from brownfield expansions of our existing ore bodies.

我們現有的大批量生產是可持續的。我們擁有大量的可持續儲量和資源。我們將從凱瑟琳將要談論的這項真正令人興奮的浸出計劃以及我們現有礦體的棕地擴張中謹慎地尋求增長機會。

Before turning over to Kathleen, I just want to send a note of condolences to our friends at Rio Tinto. You may have seen the news, but they had a plane go down in Canada heading to their diamond operations there. Rio has been a special part of Freeport's history, of course, through our partners for many years at Grasberg. I've worked with 6, 7, 8 CEOs over my career, some of my closest colleagues have been with that company. And the toughest part of being a CEO is to lose people, and I'm just so sad to hear this news and the whole Freeport families' heart goes out to our friends at Rio.

在向凱瑟琳求助之前，我只想向力拓的朋友致以慰問。您可能已經看到了這個新聞，但他們（聽不清楚）要前往加拿大，前往那裡的鑽石業務。當然，透過我們多年來在 Grasberg 的合作夥伴，裡約熱內盧一直是自由港歷史上的特殊組成部分。在我的職業生涯中，我曾與 6、7、8 位 CEO 共事過，我的一些最親密的同事也曾在該公司工作過。身為執行長最困難的部分就是失去員工，聽到這個消息我感到非常難過，整個自由港家族的心與我們在裡約熱內盧的朋友們同在。

With that, Kathleen, I'll turn it over to you.

這樣，凱瑟琳，我就把它交給你了。

Okay. Thank you, Richard, and I'll be covering the presentation materials, starting with Slide 3.

好的。謝謝理查德，我將從幻燈片 3 開始介紹簡報材料。

Our achievements for 2023 are summarized here. Our sharp focus on executing our plans in an effective, safe, and responsible manner, managing the controllable drivers and navigating challenges successfully all translated into solid operating results over the year. A big highlight for the year was the outstanding progress in Indonesia, where we grew production levels for the fourth year in a row. We posted several new operating records and we continue to enhance values for this large-scale, low-cost, and long-lived resource.

我們在 2023 年所取得的成就總結如下。我們高度重視以有效、安全和負責任的方式執行我們的計劃，管理可控驅動因素並成功應對挑戰，所有這些都在一年內轉化為堅實的經營績效。今年的一大亮點是印尼的突出進展，我們連續第四年提高了產量水準。我們發布了幾項新的營運記錄，並繼續提升這一大規模、低成本和[持久]資源的價值。

We were also successful in reaching several milestones during the year, including our -- reaching our target run rate for incremental leach production in the Americas, enhancing optionality in the Americas for our brownfield growth projects, and reaching our targeted 90% completion milestone for the Indonesian smelter project by the end of 2023.

我們在這一年中也成功實現了多個里程碑，包括——達到了美洲增量浸出產量的目標運行率、增強了美洲棕地增長項目的選擇性，以及實現了 90% 完成里程碑的目標印尼冶煉廠工程將於2023年底完工。

As a leader in the industry, we were one of the first companies to have all of our operating sites certified under the Copper and Molybdenum Marks, and this demonstrates our performance and commitment to responsible mining practices. We ended the year 2023 in a strong financial position, a positive outlook, and as we work together to enhance long-term value for shareholders.

作為行業領導者，我們是首批所有營運場所均獲得銅和鉬標誌認證的公司之一，證明了我們的表現和對負責任採礦實踐的承諾。 2023 年結束時，我們財務狀況強勁，前景樂觀，並共同努力提高股東的長期價值。

On Slide 4, we summarize the key results for 2023 compared with historical levels. After growing our volumes from 2020 to 2021 and 2022, we were able to sustain production of copper in 2023 despite a challenging environment for copper supplies, Richard discussed, and we reported another year of growth in gold production. Our unit net cash costs for 2023 were above the 2022 level as expected, but they came in very close to our original guidance for the year. We're continuing to actively manage costs and productivity initiatives to address cost inflation, and we'll be working on that as we go forward.

在投影片 4 中，我們總結了 2023 年的主要結果與歷史水準的比較。 Richard 表示，在 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年產量不斷增加之後，儘管銅供應環境充滿挑戰，我們還是能夠在 2023 年（聽不清楚）生產銅，並且我們報告了黃金產量又增長了一年。我們 2023 年的單位淨現金成本高於 2022 年的預期水平，但非常接近我們當年的原始指引。我們將繼續積極管理成本和生產力計劃，以解決成本膨脹問題，並且我們將在未來的工作中致力於這一點。

For the year 2023, we generated strong EBITDA of $8.8 billion and operating cash flows of over $5 billion. We're continuing to carefully manage not only our operating costs but also capital expenditures with a priority on spending on projects to sustain production, improve efficiencies and enhance optionality for future development options with attractive rates of return.

2023 年，我們實現了 88 億美元的強勁 EBITDA 和超過 50 億美元的營運現金流。我們不僅繼續認真管理營運成本，而且還認真管理資本支出，並優先用於維持生產、提高效率和增強未來開發選項的選擇性以及具有吸引力回報率的專案支出。

During 2023, we returned $860 million to shareholders, bringing the total shareholder returns to $3.8 billion since we implemented our performance-based payout framework in 2021. We ended the year with net debt of approximately $800 million, and that excludes the smelter-related debt, which is being financed separately.

2023 年，我們向股東返還8.6 億美元，自2021 年實施基於績效的支付框架以來，股東總回報達到38 億美元。年底，我們的淨債務約為8 億美元，其中不包括與冶煉廠相關的債務，這是單獨資助的。

I will move to Slide 5 and talk about the fourth quarter. During the fourth quarter, our sales were 3% above our estimates going into the quarter. Our gold production was also very strong, but our shipments of gold in the fourth quarter was slightly below the previous estimates, and that reflected timing in these shipments we made in the first quarter. Unit net cash cost averaged $1.52 per pound in the fourth quarter, that was better than our guidance of $1.58 per pound, and slightly below the year ago period. Notably, unit net cash costs Indonesia were 0 in the fourth quarter, $0.00 per pound, meaning our gold credits completely offset the production cost for copper.

我將轉到投影片 5，談論第四季。第四季度，我們的銷售額比本季的預期高出 3%。我們的黃金產量也非常強勁，但我們第四季的出貨量成長略低於先前的預期，這反映了我們第一季出貨的時間表。第四季單位淨現金成本平均為每磅 1.52 美元，優於我們每磅 1.58 美元的指導，略低於去年同期。值得注意的是，第四季度印尼的單位淨現金成本為 0，即每磅 0.00 美元，這意味著我們的黃金信貸完全抵消了銅的生產成本。

Average capital realizations in the fourth quarter were $3.81 per pound, and we generated $2.3 billion of EBITDA and operating cash flows of $1.3 billion.

第四季的平均資本變現為每磅 3.81 美元，我們產生了 23 億美元的 EBITDA 和 13 億美元的營運現金流。

If you go around the world and talk a little bit about our various operations in the fourth quarter. In the U.S., we made progress in increasing our mining rates. That's been a big focus during the quarter with a 9% increase over the year ago quarter. We have a continued focus on improving our asset efficiencies and workforce experience levels. These are important initiatives as we seek to increase productivities to combat lower ore grades. Our innovative leach initiatives met expectations and also helped to mitigate the impact of lower ore grades in the U.S.

如果你到世界各地談談我們第四季的各種營運情況。在美國，我們在提高採礦率方面取得了進展。這是本季的一大焦點，與去年同期相比成長了 9%。我們持續致力於提高資產效率和員工經驗水準。這些都是我們尋求提高生產力以因應礦石品位較低的重要措施。我們的創新浸出計畫滿足了預期，也有助於減輕美國礦石品位較低的影響。

Labor market conditions in the U.S. continue to be tight. We're taking steps to expand housing options in our remote locations for recruiting and retention, and we're also continuing to pursue technology solutions to enhance productivity. Conversion of the Bagdad truck fleet to fully autonomous is advancing, and we're targeting to commence the transition in the second half of next year.

美國勞動市場狀況持續緊張。我們正在採取措施擴大偏遠地區的住房選擇，以進行招募和留住人才，同時我們也將繼續尋求技術解決方案來提高生產力。巴格達卡車車隊的全自動駕駛改造正在推進，我們的目標是在明年下半年開始過渡。

In South America, our ore milled was sustained above 400,000 metric tons per day, and our ore stacking rates increased at El Abra.

在南美洲，我們的礦石研磨量維持在每天 40 萬噸以上，並且我們的礦石堆放率以（聽不清楚）的速度增加。

Mill recoveries at Cerro Verde in the fourth quarter of 2023 were below the year ago level because of the material types that we're mining in the fourth quarter. This is continuing for mining phases in early 2024, and we're working to optimize performance.

由於我們在第四季度開採的材料類型，2023 年第四季 Cerro Verde 的工廠回收率低於去年同期水準。這將在 2024 年初的挖礦階段繼續進行，我們正在努力優化效能。

As Richard discussed, the fourth quarter performance in Indonesia was exceptional. Underground ore mined averaged over 214,000 tons per day, and that was 8% higher than the year ago period combined with strong grades and recoveries, our copper and gold production in the fourth quarter was over 20% higher than last year's fourth quarter.

正如理查德所討論的，印尼第四季的表現非常出色。地下礦石開採量平均每天超過 214,000 噸，比去年同期增長 8%，加上強勁的工資和復甦，我們第四季度的銅和黃金產量比去年第四季度增長了 20% 以上。

We completed the installation of a new SAG mill at PT-FI in December, and that will provide additional opportunities for us going forward. And the team is just doing outstanding work, sustaining and optimizing value from this large resource position.

12 月，我們在 PT-FI 完成了新的半自磨機的安裝，這將為我們的未來提供更多機會。團隊正在做出色的工作，從這個龐大的資源位置維持和優化價值。

We thought it's good to look back in history of how the underground transition has gone, Slide 6 covers this. We show a history of the progression of the transition. As Richard mentioned, we stopped mining from the surface in the Grasberg Open Pit at the end of 2019, transition to fully underground operations beginning in 2020. We have a long history in Indonesia, spanning over 56 years, and a great track record for building value over many years for all stakeholders.

我們認為回顧地下轉型的歷史是件好事，幻燈片 6 對此進行了介紹。我們展示了轉變進程的歷史。正如理查德所提到的，我們在2019 年底停止了Grasberg 露天礦場的地表採礦，並於2020 年開始過渡到完全地下作業。我們在印尼擁有悠久的歷史，跨越56 年以上，並擁有良好的建築記錄多年來為所有利害關係人帶來的價值。

We're extremely proud of the team's execution, on ths transition. We now have the world's largest underground mining complex, and it's been developed in a modern, efficient operation. The Grasberg is the world's second largest copper mine and one of the largest gold mines even though gold is a byproduct. High grades of both copper and gold make it one of the lowest cost operations in the world as well. This took a lot of planning. We began planning for this underground era over 25 years ago and commenced development activities in 2004. And as you can see from the graph, the project is performing exceptionally well and generating strong margins and cash flows.

我們對團隊的執行力和我們的轉變感到非常自豪。我們現在擁有世界上最大的地下採礦綜合體，並且它是在現代化、高效的營運下開發的。格拉斯伯格是世界第二大銅礦，也是最大的金礦之一，儘管黃金是副產品。高品位的銅和金也使其成為世界上成本最低的工廠之一。這需要大量的計劃。我們在 25 年前就開始規劃這個地下時代，並於 2004 年開始開發活動。從圖中可以看出，該專案表現非常出色，並產生了強勁的利潤和現金流。

As we look forward, we're continuing to make investments in this resource to enhance value and sustain long-term performance. We're working on the extension of our operating rights beyond 2041 and increasingly confident about securing our long-term rights. And that would extend the lives of our resources and open a whole new set of opportunities for this district.

展望未來，我們將繼續對該資源進行投資，以提高價值並維持長期績效。我們正在努力將我們的經營權延長到 2041 年之後，並且對確保我們的長期權利越來越有信心。這將延長我們資源的壽命，並為該地區帶來一系列全新的機會。

Richard touched on the smelter progress, and this is really important for us in terms of securing long-term rights. We reached 2 important milestones on these initiatives in 2023. The projects include a new greenfield smelter in East Java, and the expansion of our nearby existing smelter, which was developed in the late 1990s. Richard mentioned, we celebrated in December, the completion of the expansion project with the Indonesian government and our Japanese partner.

理查德談到了冶煉廠的進展，這對我們確保長期權利來說非常重要。 2023 年，我們在這些舉措上實現了 2 個重要里程碑。這些項目包括東爪哇新建一座冶煉廠，以及擴建附近 20 世紀 90 年代末開發的現有冶煉廠。理查德提到，我們在 12 月與印尼政府和日本合作夥伴慶祝了擴建計畫的完成。

And we also reached a really important milestone on progress of the greenfield project with completion progress achieving the target we set with the government of over 90% by the end of December. We posted a video this morning on our website that shows the Greenfield Smelter project. You can see all the progress that's been made and you can see the sheer size and scale of this impressive facility, and I hope you'll have a chance to look at it.

我們在綠地計畫的進度上也達到了一個非常重要的里程碑，到 12 月底，完工進度達到了我們與政府設定的目標的 90% 以上。今天早上，我們在網站上發布了一段視頻，展示了格林菲爾德冶煉廠項目。您可以看到所取得的所有進展，您可以看到這個令人印象深刻的設施的巨大規模和規模，我希望您有機會參觀它。

Both projects have been executed very efficiently in the context of a challenging market for major project development. The internal team that we have working on this project, together with our contractor, have done an outstanding job containing costs and maintaining schedules. We're working to complete the construction by the end of May of 2024 and to start commissioning and conduct the ramp-up period over the balance of 2024. This is a big deal for us. It's not very frequent that you see new smelters starting up, and we've done a lot of planning going into the start-up process. Our teams are well-prepared and really highly motivated to achieve a safe, efficient, and timely start-up in 2024.

在重大專案開發市場充滿挑戰的背景下，這兩個專案都非常有效率地執行。我們從事此專案的內部團隊與我們的承包商一起，在控製成本和維護進度方面做得非常出色。我們致力於在 2024 年 5 月底之前完成施工，並在 2024 年餘下時間開始調試並進行爬坡期。這對我們來說是一件大事。新冶煉廠啟動的情況並不常見，我們在啟動過程中做了許多規劃。我們的團隊已做好充分準備，並積極主動地在 2024 年實現安全、高效、及時的啟動。

Turning to the U.S. and the Americas where we've got an important leach initiative ongoing, we achieved our targeted run rate where we were targeting approximately 200 million pounds of copper per year by the end of 2023. This is an exciting and innovative initiative involving new operating practices being applied to our traditional leach operations and really working to get more out of our massive stockpiles that contain material that has in place in prior years.

轉向美國和美洲，我們正在進行一項重要的浸出計劃，我們實現了目標運行率，我們的目標是到 2023 年底每年生產約 2 億磅銅。這是一項令人興奮的創新計劃，涉及新的操作實踐正在應用於我們的傳統浸出操作，並真正努力從我們的大量庫存中獲取更多，這些庫存包含前幾年的材料。

Look, remember, as we've talked about on prior calls, the cost of this incremental cost of production is lower from both an operating and capital perspective because we're targeting material where the material has already been mined, and we're largely using existing infrastructure to extract the new metal.

看，請記住，正如我們在之前的電話中談到的那樣，從營運和資本角度來看，這種增量生產成本的成本都較低，因為我們的目標是已經開採過的材料，而且我們在很大程度上利用現有基礎設施提取新金屬。

The first phase of this initiative essentially involved 4 basic categories of actions: One, as we've talked about previously, we commenced the process to install coverage over the stockpiles to increase heat retention and drive higher recoveries. Two, we gained access to areas in the stockpiles that have not previously had the benefit of leach solution and this initiative we call Leach Everywhere. Three, we started using drilling techniques to specifically target areas within the stockpile where solution was lacking. And importantly, the fourth area is developing more sophisticated models using data analytics to optimize the application of solutions to improve performance and using this data as a valuable tool in getting work in all the areas of initiatives in this important program.

該計劃的第一階段主要涉及 4 類基本行動：一是，正如我們之前討論的，我們開始在庫存上安裝覆蓋物，以增加保溫性並推動更高的回收率。第二，我們可以進入以前沒有受益於浸出解決方案的庫存區域，我們將這項措施稱為「浸出無所不在」。第三，我們開始使用鑽探技術專門針對庫存中缺乏解決方案的區域。重要的是，第四個領域是使用數據分析開發更複雜的模型來優化解決方案的應用以提高效能，並將這些數據用作在這個重要計劃的所有舉措領域開展工作的寶貴工具。

As we look at where the impacts came from, you can see most of the incremental production was from our Morenci mine. That mine has a very long history of leaching operations. We have a massive set of stockpiles there and a very large opportunity set at Morenci. As we go to Phase 2 of the project, where we are working to essentially double the initial target from 200 million pounds to 400 million pounds, we really are looking at just scaling these practices further.

當我們查看影響的來源時，您可以看到大部分增量產量來自我們的 Morenci 礦場。該礦具有非常悠久的浸出作業歷史。我們在那裡擁有大量庫存，並且在莫倫西擁有非常大的機會。當我們進入該計畫的第二階段時，我們正在努力將最初的目標從 2 億英鎊增加到 4 億英鎊，實際上我們正在考慮進一步擴大這些做法。

And by continuing to scale the operating practices, we think we can double the initial target over the next 2 to 3 years. And as we continue to work to sustain the production we can add to our reserve position, and that's a real focus of ours, to capitalize the progress into long-term reserve additions.

透過繼續擴大營運實踐，我們認為我們可以在未來 2 到 3 年內將初始目標翻倍。當我們繼續努力維持生產時，我們可以增加我們的儲備頭寸，這是我們真正的重點，將進展資本化為長期儲備增加。

The first and second phase of this initiative is really operationally driven using existing technologies. The third phase, which is also very exciting is really the work that we and others are doing to advance the leaching process using different additives and different techniques, and this is more of an R&D effort, but it's being advanced. We're commencing a large-scale testing activity to evaluate the response to new additives and we're also evaluating opportunities to get more heat retention in our stockpiles and heat really is an enabler of more copper production and higher recoveries.

該計劃的第一階段和第二階段實際上是使用現有技術在操作上驅動的。第三階段也非常令人興奮，我們和其他人正在做的工作是使用不同的添加劑和不同的技術來推進浸出過程，這更多的是研發工作，但它正在推進。我們正在開始大規模測試活動，以評估對新添加劑的反應，我們也正在評估在我們的庫存中獲得更多熱量的機會，而熱量確實是更多銅產量和更高回收率的推動者。

In aggregate, these initiatives have the potential to reach 800 million pounds per annum, and that's equivalent to a large-scale copper mine. And notably, it's got very low capital intensity, and we've seen how much -- how much new copper mines cost. This is a very low capital intensity, low incremental operating costs, and a low carbon footprint. The value potential here is very attractive, particularly for a company like Freeport to take advantage of given our large quantities of suitable material that we previously mined.

總的來說，這些舉措每年有可能達到 8 億英鎊，相當於一個大型銅礦。值得注意的是，它的資本密集度非常低，我們已經看到了新銅礦的成本是多少。這是非常低的資本密集度、低增量營運成本和低碳足跡。這裡的價值潛力非常有吸引力，特別是對於像自由港這樣的公司來說，考慮到我們之前開採的大量合適材料，可以利用它。

Richard touched on copper markets earlier, and we have some information on Slide 9. Physical markets have continued to tighten, inventories have declined and demand is growing. Despite the weak sentiment over the last several quarters on the Chinese economy and property sector, the reality is that China's copper consumption was strong throughout 2023. And this reflected the intensity of copper use and energy infrastructure, renewables, and electric vehicles. In the U.S., our customers continue to report solid demand for copper with growth in several sectors.

理查德早些時候談到了銅市場，我們在幻燈片 9 上得到了一些資訊。現貨市場持續收緊，庫存下降，需求增長。儘管過去幾季中國經濟和房地產行業的情緒疲軟，但現實情況是，中國的銅消費在整個2023 年都很強勁。這反映了銅的使用和能源基礎設施、再生能源和電動車的強度。在美國，我們的客戶繼續表示對銅的需求強勁，多個行業都在成長。

At the same time, supply disruption increased meaningfully in recent months. In total, near-term supplies of copper have been reduced by over 700,000 tons in a very short period of time. The market was previously expecting that 2024 would be a small surplus market and in turning to deficit beginning in 2025 time frame and continuing for some time. With the recent supply disruptions and continued demand growth, the deficit market has been advanced into 2024, setting up for tight market conditions in the near term.

同時，近幾個月供應中斷顯著增加。整體而言，近期銅供應量在很短的時間內減少了70萬噸以上。市場先前預計2024年將是一個小幅順差市場，並從2025年開始轉向赤字並持續一段時間。由於近期供應中斷和需求持續成長，赤字市場已提前至 2024 年，為近期市場緊張奠定了基礎。

While the fundamentals have become significantly more positive, macro conditions tied to U.S. dollar strength and sentiment about China have influenced copper price movements. Richard mentioned, we believe the fundamentals of the market will lead to significantly higher copper prices in the future, and that's supported by anticipated strong growth in demand associated with secular trends, and the global economy's requirements for copper. Also, the realities of the cost and time frames required for new supply development is an important factor when we look at the fundamental outlook for copper.

雖然基本面變得更加積極，但與美元走強和中國情緒相關的宏觀條件影響了銅價走勢。 Richard提到，我們認為市場基本面將導致未來銅價大幅上漲，這得益於與長期趨勢相關的預期需求強勁增長以及全球經濟對銅的需求。此外，當我們審視銅的基本面前景時，新供應開發所需的成本和時間框架的現實也是一個重要因素。

Turning into how Freeport is positioning to try to grow production in response to this market demand, really look at the sizable on Slide 10. We really look at the sizable reserve position of copper and even larger resource position that Freeport has that supports a pipeline for future growth options. Within the portfolio, we look for opportunities to get more out of what we have through innovation and operating efficiencies. We look for investments and projects, so we have large resource positions and where we have established track records and opportunities to leverage the existing infrastructure, our people and capabilities, all with the drive focus on increasing value.

談到自由港如何定位以嘗試增加產量來應對這一市場需求，請真正關注幻燈片 10 中的規模。我們真正關注的是可觀的銅儲備地位，以及自由港擁有的支持管道的更大資源地位。未來的成長選擇。在產品組合中，我們尋找機會透過創新和營運效率從我們現有的資源中獲得更多收益。我們尋找投資和項目，因此我們擁有大量資源，並建立了良好的記錄和機會來啟動現有的基礎設施、我們的人員和能力，所有這些都以增加價值為重點。

We categorized on Slide 10, our near-term, medium-term, and longer-term development options. And we've outlined identified projects totaling about 1.7 billion pounds of copper in the Americas. And we've also highlighted on the slide the ongoing development of the Kucing Liar project in Indonesia which is expected to support long-term production profiles in the Grasberg District.

我們在幻燈片 10 上對我們的近期、中期和長期發展選項進行了分類。我們也概述了美洲已確定的總價值約 17 億磅銅的項目。我們還在幻燈片上強調了印尼 Kucing Liar 項目的持續開發，預計該項目將支持 Grasberg 地區的長期生產概況。

The opportunities that are shown on the slide in the 2- to 3-year category, they center around scaling our leach initiatives and achieving incremental production from our operational improvement projects. Together, the potential from these opportunities total 400 million pounds of incremental copper per annum and do not require significant investment or long lead times. We discussed earlier that the leach projects, but we're also dedicating significant resources to enhancing productivity and asset efficiencies, rebuilding the experience of our workforce given the large number of new hires in recent years, and utilizing new technologies and automation to restore and improve on productivity metrics that weakened somewhat during the pandemic.

幻燈片上顯示的 2 到 3 年類別的機會，它們集中在擴大我們豐富的計劃並透過我們的營運改善項目實現增量生產。這些機會總共具有每年 4 億磅銅增量的潛力，並且不需要大量投資或較長的交貨時間。我們之前討論了浸出項目，但我們也投入大量資源來提高生產力和資產效率，鑑於近年來大量新員工的情況重建員工的經驗，並利用新技術和自動化來恢復和改進生產力指標在大流行期間有所減弱。

As we indicated, we completed the feasibility study late in the year 2023, to evaluate a project to more than double the size of our Bagdad operation in Northwest Arizona. The reserves at Bagdad are span for decades, and they support expansion of infrastructure at the site to bring value forward. The incremental capital cost to build a new concentrator and support infrastructure for significantly higher mining and milling rates is on the order of $3.5 billion and an expanded operation would not only substantially increase copper production but would produce economies of scale and reduce unit costs.

正如我們所指出的，我們在 2023 年年底完成了可行性研究，以評估將我們位於亞利桑那州西北部的巴格達業務規模擴大一倍以上的專案。巴格達的儲備長達數十年，它們支持該地點基礎設施的擴建，以帶來價值。建造新選礦廠和支援基礎設施以顯著提高採礦和銑削率的增量資本成本約為 35 億美元，擴大營運不僅會大幅增加銅產量，還會產生規模經濟並降低單位成本。

The project does not require major permitting and it's relatively straightforward. But given the tight labor market conditions and general market factors, we're not making a decision right now on the timing of the project. We'll continue to evaluate the timing of when we would go forward. But we are taking steps now to enhance optionality for the future by making some investments in the autonomous haulage for our mining operations, making some investments in housing, and also advancing investments in the tailings infrastructure that will put us in a position when we make the decision, we could get the project online within a few years.

該項目不需要重大許可，而且相對簡單。但鑑於勞動力市場狀況緊張和整體市場因素，我們目前尚未就該項目的時間表做出決定。我們將繼續評估何時推進。但我們現在正在採取措施，透過對採礦作業的自主運輸進行一些投資，對住房進行一些投資，並推進對尾礦基礎設施的投資，這將使我們在實現決定，我們可以在幾年內讓該項目上線。

In Chile, at El Abra, we talked about this. Our resource is very large. We have a major opportunity to install a new concentrator on the size of -- on the order of magnitude size of the concentrator we added at Cerro Verde in 2015.

在智利的 El Abra，我們討論了這個問題。我們的資源非常大。我們有一個重大機會安裝一個新的集中器，其尺寸與我們 2015 年在 Cerro Verde 添加的集中器的數量級相同。

We'll continue to work to retest the economics and updating our project capital costs in light of recent capital cost experience of other large projects and in parallel, we're starting work in preparation for an environmental impact statement that would give us the ability to advance the project and provide optionality for future development. We mentioned Kucing Liar development project in the Grasberg district, which we've initiated development on. This is a multiyear development project, and it's proceeding on schedule, and we expect to commence production by 2030, ramping up to over 500 million pounds of copper and over 500,000 ounces of gold.

我們將繼續努力重新測試經濟性，並根據其他大型專案最近的資本成本經驗更新我們的專案資本成本，同時，我們正在開始準備環境影響報告書，這將使我們能夠推進專案並為未來發展提供選擇。我們提到了 Grasberg 區的 Kucing Liar 開發項目，我們已經開始開發這個項目。這是一個歷時多年的開發項目，正在按計劃進行，我們預計到 2030 年開始生產，銅產量將超過 5 億磅，黃金產量將超過 50 萬盎司。

We're also conducting additional exploration in the Grasberg district, where we have identified potential -- we've got a big potential below our Deep MLZ ore body and we expect to have additional opportunities in the future at Grasberg.

我們也在 Grasberg 地區進行額外的勘探，我們已經發現了該地區的潛力 - 我們在 Deep MLZ 礦體下方擁有巨大的潛力，我們預計未來在 Grasberg 會有更多的機會。

We have a major opportunity in the U.S. at the Safford/Lone Star District. We've identified a significant resource there. This year, we're going to work to complete metallurgical testing, and mine planning, and start our prefeasibility study to assess future development options there. We continue to see this district as one that has big potential and potentially being a cornerstone asset in the U.S. on adjacent to the Morenci operations.

我們在美國薩福德/孤星區有一個重大機會。我們在那裡發現了重要的資源。今年，我們將努力完成冶金測試和礦場規劃，並開始預可行性研究，以評估未來的開發方案。我們仍然認為該地區具有巨大潛力，有可能成為美國毗鄰 Morenci 業務的基石資產。

In Indonesia, we're focused on this extension of our rights beyond 2041, because that would open up a substantial opportunity for reserve and resource expansion and a continuation of the large-scale mining in one of the world's largest and highest grade copper and gold mining districts.

在印度尼西亞，我們的重點是將我們的權利延長到 2041 年以後，因為這將為擴大儲量和資源以及繼續在世界上最大、品位最高的銅和金礦之一進行大規模採礦創造巨大的機會。礦區。

We're in a really strong position to continue our leadership role in supplying copper to a world with growing requirements. We're going to continue to be disciplined in our approach and focused on executing projects where we can create value to shareholders.

我們處於非常有利的地位，可以繼續發揮領導作用，向需求不斷增長的世界供應銅。我們將繼續嚴格遵守我們的方法，並專注於執行可以為股東創造價值的項目。

With a lot of history in developing big projects, we included a slide on Page 11 that you can take a look at a key strength of our company is the ability to execute projects successfully. This does not come easy. It requires a focused hands-on approach and we've got a business model of pairing internal resources with trusted contractors, and that has served us well. We've listed several projects that we've led over the years, and we've developed very complex projects around the world. We're going to continue to approach future projects with the same level of preparedness rigor and a focus on execution.

我們在開發大型專案方面擁有豐富的歷史，我們在第 11 頁新增了一張投影片，您可以透過該投影片了解我們公司的關鍵優勢是成功執行專案的能力。這並不容易。它需要專注的實踐方法，我們有一個將內部資源與值得信賴的承包商配對的商業模式，這對我們很有幫助。我們列出了多年來我們領導的幾個項目，並且我們在世界各地開發了非常複雜的項目。我們將繼續以同樣嚴格的準備水準並專注於執行來處理未來的專案。

As we look at 2024, turning to Slide 12, we've got our focus area is listed here. And first and foremost, we remain committed to safe and reliable execution of our operating plans across the global business. Seems like a simple thing, but this involves discipline and hard work day in and day out. We discussed our focus on enhancing performance in the U.S. through our leach initiatives and productivity. This is particularly important to mitigate low grades and to manage costs, which experienced higher inflation in recent years.

當我們展望 2024 年時，請轉向幻燈片 12，此處列出了我們的重點領域。首先也是最重要的是，我們仍然致力於在全球業務中安全可靠地執行我們的營運計劃。看似簡單的事情，但這需要日復一日的紀律和努力。我們討論了透過浸出計劃和生產力來提高美國業績的重點。這對於緩解低等級和管理成本尤其重要，因為近年來通貨膨脹率較高。

We're going to have another big year in Indonesia. A key priority for us is to complete the smelter and ramp up safely and efficiently and to finalize an agreement for extension of our long-term operating rights. We're also very focused on enhancing optionality, definition, and the value of our embedded growth options.

我們將在印尼度過另一個重要的一年。我們的首要任務是安全且有效率地完成冶煉廠的建設並提高產能，並敲定延長長期經營權的協議。我們也非常注重增強嵌入式成長選項的選擇性、定義和價值。

On Slide 13, we show, as usual, we show a 3-year outlook for sales volumes of copper, gold, and molybdenum. For 2024, the copper sales volumes are slightly reduced, less than 2% below our prior estimate and are now expected to be similar to 2023 levels. The gold sales are 10% higher than our prior estimate and higher than they were in 2023. Buyer sales in Indonesia for the year of 2024 offset by slightly lower sales from the Americas. In 2025, our sales estimates are similar to the prior estimates and we've added 2026 estimates, what you can see are slightly above the 2025 levels. For 2024, we currently estimate our consolidated unit costs to approximate $1.60 per pound. We've got some details in the reference materials. I believe, on Page 30 that you can look at the composition of those costs but $1.60 very similar to what we had in 2023.

在幻燈片 13 上，我們像往常一樣展示了銅、金和鉬的 3 年銷售展望。 2024 年，銅銷量略有下降，比我們先前的估計低不到 2%，目前預計與 2023 年水準相似。黃金銷量比我們先前的估計高出 10%，也高於 2023 年的水平。2024 年印尼買家的銷量被美洲銷量的小幅下降所抵消。 2025 年，我們的銷售預估與先前的預估類似，我們新增了 2026 年的預估，您可以看到略高於 2025 年的水準。目前，我們預計 2024 年的綜合單位成本約為每磅 1.60 美元。我們在參考資料中找到了一些詳細資訊。我相信，在第 30 頁上，您可以看到這些成本的組成，但 1.60 美元與 2023 年的情況非常相似。

On Slide 14, we put together our projected volumes and cost projections, and we model the results for our EBITDA and cash flow at various copper prices ranging from $4 to $5 copper. These models use the average of 2025 and 2026, and our current volume estimates and our cost estimates and holding gold flat at roughly current levels of $2,000 per ounce and molybdenum flat at $19 per pound.

在投影片 14 中，我們將預計產量和成本預測放在一起，並以 4 美元至 5 美元的各種銅價對 EBITDA 和現金流結果進行建模。這些模型使用 2025 年和 2026 年的平均值以及我們當前的交易量估計和成本估計，並將黃金保持在每盎司 2,000 美元的當前水平，將鉬保持在每磅 19 美元的當前水平。

And you can see here on the charts that annual EBITDA in these periods would range from $10 billion per annum at $4 copper to over $14 billion per year at $5 copper, and operating cash flows under these price scenarios to range from $7 billion to over $10 billion. And we've got sensitivities to the various commodities on the right-hand side of the chart, really well positioned with a lot of lot reserves, large-scale production. We not only have current exposure to copper, but all of our future projects and growth opportunities are well positioned to benefit from future metals intensive growth, and this will give us the ability to generate returns on projects and enhance cash returns under our performance-based payout framework.

您可以在圖表中看到，這些時期的年度EBITDA 範圍從每年100 億美元（銅價4 美元）到每年140 億美元（銅價5 美元）不等，這些價格情景下的經營現金流範圍從70 億美元到超過10 美元十億。我們對圖表右側的各種商品很敏感，這些商品的位置非常好，擁有大量儲備和大規模生產。我們不僅目前擁有銅業務，而且我們所有未來的專案和成長機會都能夠從未來金屬密集型成長中受益，這將使我們有能力在基於績效的情況下產生專案回報並提高現金回報支付框架。

Turning to the capital expenditures. On Slide 15, we show our current forecast for '24 and '25. We should also show where we ended up for '23, which totaled $3.1 billion, and that was slightly lower than what we had guided to in October of $3.2 billion and capital for 2024 is currently forecast of approximately $3.6 billion compared with $3.9 billion preciously.

轉向資本支出。在投影片 15 上，我們展示了 '24 和 '25 的當前預測。我們還應該展示 23 年的最終結果，總計 31 億美元，略低於我們 10 月指導的 32 億美元，目前預測 2024 年的資本約為 36 億美元，而 2024 年的資本額為 39 億美元。

The 2025 estimates that are new here are currently estimated to total $3.8 billion. That includes $1.2 billion in discretionary growth projects, which totaled $2.4 billion over the 2024 and 2025 years. This category reflects the capital investments we're making in new projects, to generate returns that under our financial policy are funded with 50% of available cash that's not distributed. They're value-enhancing projects that are detailed in the reference materials on Slide 33.

此處最新的 2025 年估計目前估計總額為 38 億美元。其中包括 12 億美元的可自由支配成長項目，2024 年和 2025 年總計 24 億美元。此類別反映了我們在新項目中進行的資本投資，以產生回報，根據我們的財務政策，這些回報由未分配的可用現金的 50% 提供資金。它們是增值項目，幻燈片 33 上的參考材料對此進行了詳細介紹。

We're going to continue to be very disciplined around capital expenditures, carefully managing those. You saw we adjusted the capital expenditures down for 2024. And as we go forward, we'll continue to look at opportunities to do things to sustain our business and to do things on a low capital intensity basis.

我們將繼續嚴格控制資本支出，並仔細管理這些支出。您看到我們下調了 2024 年的資本支出。隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續尋找機會來維持我們的業務，並在低資本密集度的基礎上開展工作。

And finally, before we take your questions, we -- just on Slide 16, we reiterate our financial policies, and those are prioritized centered on a strong balance sheet, cash returns to shareholders, and investments in value-enhancing growth projects.

最後，在回答大家的問題之前，我們在投影片 16 上重申了我們的財務政策，這些政策的優先重點是強大的資產負債表、股東現金回報以及對增值成長項目的投資。

Balance sheet is solid. We've got strong credit metrics and a lot of flexibility within our debt targets to execute on our projects. You may have seen that Moody's upgraded our credit rating in December, and that just demonstrates our strong financial profile. Indicated on the slide, we've distributed almost $4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share purchases since the payout framework was implemented in the second half of 2021, and we have an attractive future long-term portfolio that will enable us to continue to build value, long-term value for shareholders.

資產負債表穩健。我們擁有強大的信用指標和很大的靈活性來執行我們的專案的債務目標。您可能已經看到穆迪在 12 月提升了我們的信用評級，這恰恰表明了我們強勁的財務狀況。如幻燈片所示，自2021 年下半年實施派息框架以來，我們已透過股息和股票購買向股東分配了近40 億美元，並且我們擁有有吸引力的未來長期投資組合，這將使我們能夠持續建構價值，股東的長期價值。

The global team as we go forward is really highly focused on our strategy of being foremost in copper, and we're driven to continue pursuing long-term value in the business and executing our plans responsibly, safely, and efficiently.

在我們前進的過程中，全球團隊確實高度關注我們在銅領域的領先策略，我們致力於繼續追求業務的長期價值，並負責任、安全和高效地執行我們的計劃。

And I want to thank everybody for their attention, and we'll now take your questions.

我要感謝大家的關注，現在我們將回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Alex Hacking with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Alex Hacking。

I guess my question is around Bagdad and the technical study. Now I was a little surprised by how high the CapEx was $3.5 billion or an incremental 100,000 tons, about $35,000 a ton. I mean, in your view, is that the new normal for a concentrate project? Or are there particular factors the fact that are raising the CapEx above historical levels?

我想我的問題是圍繞著巴格達和技術研究的。現在，我對資本支出高達 35 億美元或增量 10 萬噸（約每噸 35,000 美元）感到有點驚訝。我的意思是，在您看來，這是集中專案的新常態嗎？或是否有特殊因素導致資本支出高於歷史水準？

Thank you, Alex. I think it is somewhat of a new normal for the cost of a concentrator and related mining infrastructure. When you do -- you're dividing on the cost per ton, you're looking at how many pounds of copper are going to come out of that concentrator. And our U.S. mines are characterized by relatively low ore grades. And Bagdad has relatively low copper ore grades but also has molybdenum kicker. So molybdenum would add something like 10 million pounds of molybdenum with an expansion. So that will be another benefit.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。我認為這在某種程度上是選礦廠和相關採礦基礎設施成本的新常態。當你這樣做時，你要除以每噸的成本，你要考慮的是從該選礦廠中會產出多少磅的銅。而我們美國礦山的特徵是礦石品位相對較低。巴格達的銅礦石品位相對較低，但也有鉬礦。因此，鉬會在膨脹時添加約 1000 萬磅的鉬。所以這將是另一個好處。

But really, what we need to do is focus on -- it does bring down our overall cost per pound. So that's a big plus for us. When you look at an investment in the U.S., it may be to develop a relatively low grade mine, but something important to point out is that we don't have the tax burden in the U.S. that you have in the international location. So I think our projects in the U.S., while they're low grade, when you cut through all the economics and you look at the ability for us to -- to execute the projects and look at the risk associated with them -- the different than looking at a project in a different location. So there's some pluses or minuses that go into the bottom line. But we started this work on Bagdad some time ago, and we've updated all of the capital costs in line with where current capital costs are.

但實際上，我們需要做的是專注於——它確實降低了我們每磅的整體成本。所以這對我們來說是一個很大的優勢。當您考慮在美國進行投資時，可能會開發品位相對較低的礦山，但需要指出的是，我們在美國沒有像在國際上那樣的稅收負擔。因此，我認為我們在美國的專案雖然等級較低，但當你審視所有的經濟因素並審視我們執行專案並考慮與之相關的風險的能力時，不同的而不是在不同的地點查看專案。因此，有一些優點或缺點會影響到底線。但我們不久前在巴格達開始了這項工作，並且我們已經根據當前的資本成本更新了所有的資本成本。

And so I think a reality of the market is that the incentive price to develop new copper, even if it's brownfield, is much higher than it has been in the past. And that's another reason why we believe that the markets that they need, these copper units are going to have to adjust to the incentive prices required to get these projects going because we don't want to front-run the market. We want to be prepared, we want to be have options to go forward as soon as we can, but we don't want to be in a position where we're investing in making major capital commitments before the market prices are challenge to us already.

因此，我認為市場的現實是，開發新銅的獎勵價格，即使是棕地，也比過去高得多。這就是為什麼我們相信他們需要的市場，這些銅單位將不得不調整以適應這些項目啟動所需的激勵價格，因為我們不想搶先市場。我們希望做好準備，我們希望盡快擁有前進的選擇，但我們不希望在市場價格對我們構成挑戰之前就做出重大資本承諾投資已經。

Yes, Alex. Let me just add very brief very briefly that Kathleen makes a really good point about these relative economics. No royalties in the U.S., U.S. tax rate is much lower -- federal tax rates much lower than outside the U.S. We have a net operating loss carryforward. Community support is strong in the U.S. and we have no minority interest there. So looking at global benchmarks needs to be adjusted for the site-specific factors that we have in the U.S., and they're very positive.

是的，亞歷克斯。讓我非常簡短地補充一下，凱瑟琳對這些相關經濟學的觀點非常好。美國沒有特許權使用費，美國稅率要低得多——聯邦稅率比美國境外低得多。我們有淨營業虧損結轉。在美國，社區支持很強大，我們在那裡沒有少數利益。因此，我們需要根據美國的具體情況對全球基準進行調整，這些因素非常積極。

Your next question comes from the line of Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

Question is on cost. I just want to see if you can provide a little bit more color? The guidance for the first quarter of net unit cash cost of $1.55 per pound looked very, very good relative to consensus expectations and our own estimate. However, for the full year, the guidance came at $1.60, and that is a little bit higher than the market -- than again, consensus and our model suggests. What are you expecting? What the viability in this were you surprised in -- at the beginning of the year then maybe throughout the rest of the quarters is increasing. What is driving that? And to what extent this number for the year is conservative?

問題在於成本。我只是想看看你是否可以提供更多的顏色？相對於共識站和我們自己的估計，第一季淨單位現金成本為每磅 1.55 美元的指導看起來非常非常好。然而，全年指導價為 1.60 美元，比市場共識和我們的模型所顯示的價格略高一些。你在期待什麼？這方面的可行性讓您感到驚訝——在今年年初，然後在接下來的幾個季度中，這種情況可能正在增加。是什麼推動了這一點？今年的這個數字在多大程度上是保守的？

In terms of the first quarter, we do have some gold that was not shipped in the fourth quarter that will be shipped in the first quarter. And so the relative gold-to-copper ratio impacts the first quarter and makes that less than what we expect the average to be for the full year.

就第一季而言，我們確實有一些第四季未出貨的黃金將在第一季出貨。因此，相對金銅比率會影響第一季度，並使其低於我們預期的全年平均值。

I don't know what Carlos, what you had in there for export duties, but we're assuming in Indonesia that those are continuing. We are continuing to discuss with the government of Indonesia, the applicability of those duties. And I think the more that we make progress on the smelter the better our case there is. But that we factored into the estimate, but we are continuing to have that discussion. So if we are successful in reducing those duties, that would be a benefit.

我不知道卡洛斯，你那裡有什麼出口關稅，但我們假設在印度尼西亞，這些仍在繼續。我們正在繼續與印尼政府討論這些職責的適用性。我認為我們在冶煉廠方面取得的進展越多，我們的情況就越好。但我們已將其納入估算中，但我們仍在繼續進行討論。因此，如果我們成功地減少這些職責，那將是一個好處。

All right. And just to clarify this, Kathleen. The cash cost guidance for the year, of $1.60, includes that the duties in Indonesia concentrate exports remain throughout the entire of the year, right, the full year?

好的。只是為了澄清這一點，凱瑟琳。今年的現金成本指引為 1.60 美元，其中包括印尼精礦出口全年保持關稅，對吧，全年？

Yes. Our export -- it only applies to export volumes. And so as we go through the year, the exports will decline because we'll be ramping up the smelter. So our goal for 2024 is to get the full ramp-up completed. And so that's not something that will continue long term, the duties, once we get the smelter up and running. But it will start to decline over the course of the second half as we ramp up and we produce more domestically.

是的。我們的出口—它僅適用於出口量。因此，隨著這一年的到來，出口將會下降，因為我們將擴大冶煉廠的產能。因此，我們 2024 年的目標是完成全面提升。因此，一旦我們讓冶煉廠投入運行，這種責任就不會持續很長時間。但隨著我們的產量增加以及國內產量的增加，下半年它將開始下降。

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher LaFemina with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Christopher LaFemina 與 Jefferies 的對話。

Richard and Kathleen, I wanted to ask about the kind of cost trends in North America, in particular, at Morenci. So I know that you're guiding to a slight increase in your site production delivery costs in 2024. And I assume that is a function of volumes being lower. But if we think about kind of where this business could be headed assuming that Morenci can kind of get back to where it was 12 or 18 months ago. And I'm not sure if that's a good assumption, but let's assume that to be the case. With the leaching ramp up with the staffing and productivity improvements within technologies, and potentially even longer term with the Bagdad expansion, where could that kind of site production and delivery cost number trend down to? Could it get back to $2.50 or lower? Or is $3 a pound sort of the new normal for that business?

理查德和凱瑟琳，我想詢問北美地區的成本趨勢，特別是 Morenci 的成本趨勢。所以我知道你們正在指導 2024 年站點生產交付成本略有增加。我認為這是產量下降的結果。但如果我們考慮一下，假設 Morenci 可以回到 12 或 18 個月前的水平，那麼這項業務可能會走向何方。我不確定這是否是一個好的假設，但讓我們假設情況確實如此。隨著技術內人員配置和生產力的提高，浸出量增加，甚至從長遠來看，隨著巴格達的擴建，這種現場生產和交付成本數字會下降到什麼程度？它能回到 2.50 美元或更低嗎？或者 3 美元一磅是該行業的新常態嗎？

Well, we hope it's not the new normal Chris. We're working hard. I mean one of the things that you've got to take into account here is we are in a low grade period in the U.S. I think the grades that we had in 2023 were the lowest that they had been in probably 10 years or so or more. So we are in a period, and that's continued to '24 where we do have some low grade that we're going through. But that is why it's so important for us to bring on units with a lower incremental cost and the leach opportunity will help us there.

好吧，我們希望這不是——克里斯。我們正在努力工作。我的意思是，你必須考慮到的一件事是，我們在美國正處於低年級時期。我認為我們 2023 年的成績可能是 10 年來最低的，或者更多的。所以我們正處於一個時期，這種情況一直持續到24年，我們確實經歷了一些低等級的時期。但這就是為什麼引進增量成本較低的設備對我們來說如此重要，而浸出機會將在這方面對我們有所幫助。

And as we are able to get those pounds put into reserves longer term, not just what you're mining that year or getting that year, but multiyear reserve additions for the leach that spreads the cost -- all the costs over more reserves. And so it does help us with driving the economies of scale and why it's so important.

因為我們能夠將這些英鎊長期存入儲備，不僅是當年開採或當年獲得的資源，還包括用於分攤成本的浸出的多年儲備增加——所有成本都超過了更多儲備。因此，它確實有助於我們推動規模經濟以及為什麼它如此重要。

We're not in a position now to say where costs could go. There's been a number of other factors that we have, inflation factors and things like the cost of basic parts and materials and supplies, has gone up from where it was just 2 or 3 years ago. But we are very focused on it. And -- all of these self-help things for us have very high rates of return. There's not a lot of capital involved. It's focused resources. It's not an easy thing because it would have been done already, but it is an area we think we can make improvements.

我們現在無法判斷成本的去向。還有許多其他因素，通膨因素以及基本零件、材料和供應品的成本等，已經比兩、三年前上升。但我們非常專注於此。而且——所有這些自助的事情對我們來說都有非常高的回報率。涉及的資本並不多。是集中資源。這不是一件容易的事，因為它本來就已經完成了，但我們認為這是一個可以改進的領域。

We can also focus, which we're doing now on the last couple of years, we've had to rely more on contractors because of the staffing issues but as we get staffing set up and get more experience in the workforce, we can reduce our reliance on contractors, as you probably know, have gotten expensive, and in Arizona is a very competitive market.

我們還可以集中精力，過去幾年我們正在做的事情，由於人員配置問題，我們不得不更多地依賴承包商，但隨著我們建立人員配置並獲得更多的勞動力經驗，我們可以減少正如您可能知道的那樣，我們對承包商的依賴變得昂貴，而亞利桑那州是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。

So we're working on all those things within the things that we have within our control and are really going to be focused on trying to drive the cost down.

因此，我們正在我們控制範圍內的所有事情上努力，並且真正將重點放在努力降低成本上。

We're also looking at Morenci specifically at different configurations. We're looking at whether it makes sense for us to be operating all of our equipment like we are today and looking at if we cut back some things would that be the cost and benefits to that because that could have volume impacts as well. But is that a better setup, a more efficient setup that will allow us to drive costs lower.

我們也特別關注 Morenci 的不同配置。我們正在研究像今天這樣操作我們的所有設備是否有意義，並考慮是否削減某些東西會帶來成本和收益，因為這也會對產量產生影響。但這是否是一個更好、更有效率的設置，可以讓我們降低成本。

So we've got some of those initiatives that are -- they are being reviewed right now on what the right setup is given how costs have risen.

因此，我們已經採取了一些舉措，現在正在審查這些舉措，考慮到成本如何上升，什麼是正確的設定。

Your next question comes from the line of Orest Wowkodaw with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Orest Wowkodaw。

Given the cost -- the capital costs involved and the timing of building new projects, and the strength of your balance sheet, I'm just wondering whether M&A of producing assets is something that's on the radar because it certainly seems like there could be some assets available out there, especially in jurisdictions or not currently in?

考慮到成本——涉及的資本成本、建造新項目的時間以及資產負債表的實力，我只是想知道生產性資產的併購是否受到關注，因為看起來肯定會有一些現有資產，特別是在司法管轄區或目前不在司法管轄區？

Well, we're constantly monitoring the market and you can be confident that opportunities are available are presented to us, and we consider them. The facts we haven't found those attractive today. We have such great opportunities to create value totally for our shareholders by focusing on internal growth, through the leach project, through the brownfield developments in the Americas, through the Kucing Liar project in Indonesia, and now with the expectation that we'll go beyond 2041, we're going to do additional exploration there to understand what the opportunities are.

嗯，我們一直在監控市場，您可以放心，我們會考慮到可用的機會。今天我們還沒有發現那些有吸引力的事實。透過專注於內部成長，透過浸出項目，透過美洲的棕地開發，透過印尼的 Kucing Liar 項目，我們有如此好的機會完全為我們的股東創造價值，現在我們期望能夠超越2041 年，我們將在那裡進行更多探索，以了解機會所在。

Success in any of those opportunities creates value where there's no value in our current share price. So it's all for the best of our shareholders. And that makes it much more difficult for external opportunities to compete with them. And my experience has shown that small mines get smaller and big mines get bigger. So we really are -- as I said in my opening comments, pleased about where Freeport is positioned for what we believe is going to be a great future for our company.

這些機會中的任何一個的成功都會創造價值，而我們目前的股價沒有價值。因此，這一切都是為了我們股東的利益。這使得外部機會與他們競爭變得更加困難。我的經驗表明，小礦井會越來越小，大礦井會越來越大。因此，正如我在開場白中所說，我們確實對自由港的定位感到高興，我們相信這將為我們公司帶來美好的未來。

Your next question comes from the line of Edward Goldsmith with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的愛德華‧戈德史密斯。

Two questions from my side. So firstly, can you give an update on the status of the negotiations over a concentrate export extension post May? And secondly, can you outline the reductions to the 2024 CapEx? I think they were the discretionary and the other CapEx bucket level.

我這邊有兩個問題。首先，您能否介紹一下 5 月後精礦出口延期談判的最新進展？其次，您能否概述一下 2024 年資本支出的削減情況？我認為它們是可自由支配的和其他資本支出等級。

Yes. On the first part of the question, our current export license in Indonesia goes to May of 2024. And we are continually having discussions with the government of Indonesia about the fact that while we will be substantially complete on construction activities by the end of May, which was really important target for us and for them that just the ordinary course of a smelter start-up, it takes 5 or 6 months to get through. And so we're having those discussions. They understand the situation, and they're encouraging us to continue to meet our targets and that those discussions will continue.

是的。關於問題的第一部分，我們目前在印尼的出口許可證有效期為 2024 年 5 月。我們正在繼續與印尼政府討論這樣一個事實：雖然我們將在 5 月底之前基本完成建設活動，這對我們和他們來說都是非常重要的目標，只是冶煉廠啟動的普通過程，需要5 到6 個月才能完成。所以我們正在進行這些討論。他們了解情況，並鼓勵我們繼續實現我們的目標，而這些討論將繼續下去。

(inaudible) that the alignment that we have with the 51% ownership of the state-owned company, MIND ID, in PT-FI's operations is really important here. That, combined with tax revenues, et cetera, that the government gets from having consistent operations at PT-FI is we're both aligned in that to have exports continue. So the conversations have been constructive to date, but we've just got to -- we've got to continue to progress it. And have those -- continuing to have the discussions with the government, and we're doing that on a regular basis.

（聽不清楚）我們與擁有 51% 股權的國有公司 MIND ID 在 PT-FI 的營運中保持一致非常重要。加上稅收等收入，政府從 PT-FI 的持續運營中獲得的收入是我們雙方一致同意繼續出口的。因此，迄今為止的對話是有建設性的，但我們必須——我們必須繼續取得進展。並且繼續與政府進行討論，我們正在定期這樣做。

Well. Kathleen, just let me add. They're not negotiations over this issue. The mine -- I mean I've spoken in recent months on at least 3 occasions directly with the President about it. He understands it, the Mines' Minister who has the business background clearly understands it. It's just administrative procedurally, they concluded not to grant that export rights beyond this date to see if we complete the smelter as we've committed to do it. But beyond that, it will be just be an administrative action to get it approved.

出色地。凱瑟琳，讓我補充一下。他們不是就這個問題進行談判​​。礦井－我的意思是最近幾個月我至少3次直接與總統談過這個問題。他明白這一點，有商業背景的礦業部長顯然也明白這一點。這只是行政程序上的問題，他們得出的結論是，在此日期之後不再授予出口權，以查看我們是否按照我們承諾的那樣完成冶煉廠的建設。但除此之外，只需採取行政行動即可獲得批准。

On the second question with respect to capital expenditures. We always go through a process of looking for opportunities to put out capital if it's not required in the current year, and we went through a process between the last update on this one to really look hard at what we could efficiently spend this year and cut back on some things. Some of that showing up in 2025. We'll do the same thing again because really what we want to do is deploy the capital as efficiently as we can and make sure we're sustaining the reliability of our operations, but also looking at -- we don't want to be doing too many things at one time. And so we always take a hard look at it. So we'll continue to do that as we go forward and manage the capital very carefully.

關於第二個問題，關於資本支出。如果今年不需要的話，我們總是會尋找機會投入資本，並且在上次更新之間我們經歷了一個過程，認真研究今年我們可以有效支出並削減的資金回到一些事情上。其中一些會在 2025 年出現。我們將再次做同樣的事情，因為我們真正想做的是盡可能有效地部署資本，並確保我們維持運營的可靠性，但同時也考慮 - - 我們不想一次做太多事情。所以我們總是認真審視它。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，並非常謹慎地管理資本。

But there wasn't really one big thing. There was a number of things that we did and looking at the prior estimate for 2024.

但其實並沒有發生一件大事。我們做了很多事情，並查看了先前對 2024 年的估計。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Dudas with Vertical Research.

您的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的 Michael Dudas。

With regard to your proposed investments in the U.S., maybe looking in Latin America, maybe you care to remind us on an internal rate of return, risk-adjusted rate return basis, what Freeport is looking for? Certainly, you mentioned, on the U.S. investments, you get benefits from royalty and tax issues. But just on a general basis, even when you're thinking about your assets in Indonesia. And then the follow-up on that, is the industry relative to a year ago today? Is the industry ahead of the curve or behind the curve on meeting what the expected demand opportunities are in the market?

關於您提議的在美國的投資，也許在拉丁美洲，也許您想提醒我們在內部回報率、風險調整利率回報的基礎上，自由港正在尋找什麼？當然，您提到，在美國投資中，您可以從特許權使用費和稅收問題中受益。但只是一般而言，即使您考慮的是您在印尼的資產。那麼接下來的問題是，今天這個產業與一年前相比是否？該行業在滿足市場預期需求機會方面是領先還是落後？

On the first part of the question, with respect to how we evaluate projects and returns, we don't target one number. We look at what the specific project is, what the execution risk is, where it's located. And we run a range of commodity price assumptions around it to look at -- what we're really focused on in deploying capital is investing and putting our infrastructure and investments in places where we can execute the plan and in places where we've got long-term reserves because anybody that tells you they can get the copper price right is wrong because it's going to move up and down. And so what we want to have is a situation where we've got a very long life reserve where you can make that capital investment upfront and realize cash flows over a long period of time and not have to get the price forecast for copper perfect in the first year or 2.

關於問題的第一部分，關於我們如何評估項目和回報，我們不是針對一個數字。我們會研究具體項目是什麼、執行風險是什麼、它位於何處。我們圍繞著它進行了一系列商品價格假設來觀察——我們在部署資本時真正關注的是投資，並將我們的基礎設施和投資放在我們可以執行計劃的地方和我們已經擁有的地方長期儲備，因為任何告訴你他們可以調整銅價的人都是錯的，因為銅價會上下波動。因此，我們想要的情況是，我們擁有非常長的壽命儲備，您可以預先進行資本投資並在很長一段時間內實現現金流，而不必在很長一段時間內獲得完美的銅價格預測。第一年或第二年。

And so when we look at returns, we're looking at those projects that have leverage to future copper. And we may -- we look at something that is outside of the U.S., we may apply higher risk factors and we look to get higher rates of return than what we would want to have in something like the U.S. where for reasons that Richard talked about, have somewhat of a lower risk profile for us.

因此，當我們考慮回報時，我們關注的是那些對未來銅有槓桿作用的項目。我們可能會關注美國以外的地區，我們可能會應用更高的風險因素，並且我們希望獲得比我們在美國等地區更高的回報率，原因正如理查德談到的那樣，對我們來說風險狀況較低。

But it is not one scientific number. It's a range of scenarios that we run around a project. And again, looking at the resource and the size of the investment and our ability to generate returns over a long period of time, that would be consistent, not that it would go away -- it would fall off something that could be earned over a long period of time, has a long tail, which a lot of our projects do.

但這不是一個科學數字。這是我們圍繞專案運行的一系列場景。再說一遍，看看資源和投資規模以及我們在很長一段時間內產生回報的能力，這將是一致的，而不是說它會消失——它會從可以在一段時間內賺取的東西中消失。很長一段時間，有很長的尾巴，我們的許多項目都是這樣做的。

And Richard might have some perspectives on the second question. I think it's obvious that there haven't been new projects sanctioned in our industry for some time. And what's happened recently in recent years with the copper prices rallying and then falling off has just caused more delays, more cautiousness by developers in developing the project. So I would say, in my opinion, the situation has become more significant because the projects are taking longer, not shorter.

理查德可能對第二個問題有一些看法。我認為很明顯，我們行業已經有一段時間沒有批准新項目了。而近年來銅價先漲後跌的情況，導致了更多的延誤，開發商在開發專案時更加謹慎。所以我想說，在我看來，情況變得更加重要，因為專案花費的時間更長，而不是更短。

And we talked about when we started on Grasberg Underground, we started planning -- started investing 20 years ago in it. I mean we really have -- these are long lead time projects, and we really need to have started investments. And that's why we're really focused on what can we do to continue to plan for these long-term projects. So what else can we do and what can we do to take advantage of technology that's available to us? And what can we do to get more out of the resources we already have? But not everybody has that ability. And Richard, I don't know if you want to add any comments to that second part.

我們談到，當我們開始建造 Grasberg Underground 時，我們就開始規劃——20 年前就開始投資。我的意思是，我們確實有——這些是周期較長的項目，我們確實需要開始投資。這就是為什麼我們真正專注於我們能做些什麼來繼續規劃這些長期專案。那麼我們還能做什麼以及我們能做些什麼來利用我們可用的技術呢？我們可以做些什麼來充分利用我們已有的資源？但不是每個人都有這個能力。理查德，我不知道您是否想對第二部分添加任何評論。

Well, I'll add a brief comment to the first part too, Kathleen. The -- my early experience in my career was in the oil and gas industry. And early on, Dan Yergin and I wrote a paper on oil price forecasting which basically evidenced how wrong forecasts can be. And so we approach, as Kathleen described, all of our investment and business planning on a scenario basis, not trying to predict a particular price or range but to look at what impact investment decisions and operating decisions have on our overall portfolio. And we look to protect ourselves on a portfolio basis from downside risk and then structure investments to take advantage of what we have is confidence in the long-term price.

好吧，我也會對第一部分添加一個簡短的評論，凱瑟琳。我職業生涯的早期經歷是在石油和天然氣行業。早些時候，丹·耶金和我寫了一篇關於油價預測的論文，基本上證明了預測可能是多麼錯誤。因此，正如凱瑟琳所描述的，我們所有的投資和業務規劃都是基於情境的，不是試圖預測特定的價格或範圍，而是著眼於投資決策和營運決策對我們整體投資組合的影響。我們希望在投資組合的基礎上保護自己免受下行風險的影響，然後利用我們對長期價格的信心來建立投資。

So it's not any kind of formal rate of return kind of criteria that you see in a lot of industries, which work elsewhere. Have the saying that figures don't lie but lie is figure. And we just really base these things, as I said, on scenario planning and portfolio impacts.

因此，這並不是您在許多行業中看到的任何形式的正式回報率標準，這些標準在其他地方也適用。有句話說，數字不會說謊，但謊言就是數字。正如我所說，我們只是將這些事情真正建立在情境規劃和投資組合影響的基礎上。

The basic thesis, I believe, for the demand for copper is unchanged and continues to be supported. From the very start, my work with ICMM, its Chairman from 2 occasions, but more recently when all the issues about aspirational goals for carbon reductions were being considered in such promise, I've always said that there are a lot of unanswered questions and the movement towards these aspirational goals will not be consistent, but they'll have issues, complications and so forth, and that's certainly what we're seeing.

我認為，銅需求的基本論點沒有改變，並繼續受到支持。從一開始，我就曾兩次與 ICMM 主席合作，但最近，當所有有關碳減排理想目標的問題都在這樣的承諾中得到考慮時，我總是說有很多懸而未決的問題和問題。實現這些理想目標的過程不會是一致的，但它們會遇到問題、複雜化等等，這肯定是我們所看到的。

The future of copper is really influenced significantly by investments in carbon reduction. And I think it's something the world absolutely has to do. There are other factors related to global growth, connectivity, these data centers, some of that's being driven by artificial intelligence. Just everywhere you turn, the world is getting more electrified. And that's why I think the fundamental long-term demand thesis for copper is just getting stronger and stronger.

銅的未來確實受到碳減排投資的顯著影響。我認為這是世界絕對必須做的事情。還有其他與全球成長、連結性、這些資料中心相關的因素，其中一些是由人工智慧驅動的。無論你走到哪裡，世界都變得更加電氣化。這就是為什麼我認為銅的基本長期需求論正在變得越來越強。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian MacArthur with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自布萊恩·麥克阿瑟和雷蒙·詹姆斯的對話。

It goes back to what Alex was asking in Bagdad. So I just want to make sure, as I look at these numbers. So the project capital is $3.5 billion. And I would have to think you get some infrastructure benefit there, so it's not a true greenfield. And then you talk about a $3.50 to $4 incentive copper prices, and I understand the benefits of new royalties and taxes. Does that sort of say that if you didn't have infrastructure, the capital costs would have been higher?

這可以追溯到亞歷克斯在巴格達提出的問題。所以當我查看這些數字時，我只想確定一下。因此項目資本為35億美元。我不得不認為你在那裡得到了一些基礎設施的好處，所以它不是一個真正的綠地。然後你談到了 3.50 美元到 4 美元的激勵銅價，我了解新的特許權使用費和稅收的好處。這是否意味著如果沒有基礎設施，資本成本會更高？

And if you didn't have all these tax benefits, the incentive price would be an awful lot higher, i.e., if anybody else had to do a greenfield there, you'd probably need an incentive price well over $4 to make it work, i.e., those numbers include all the tax benefits and everything that you were talking about before, if I can ask the question that way.

如果你沒有所有這些稅收優惠，激勵價格會高得多，也就是說，如果其他人必須在那裡開發綠地，你可能需要遠超過 4 美元的激勵價格才能使其發揮作用，也就是說，這些數字包括所有稅收優惠以及您之前談論的所有內容（如果我可以這樣問的話）。

Brian, the -- if somebody else has the same situation, greenfield and the grades we have, it would be a lot more expensive.

布萊恩，如果其他人有同樣的情況，綠地和我們擁有的成績，那會貴得多。

A lot more. Your $4 is absolutely right. I mean you just look at recent projects and look at how costs escalate and then what would have taken from an incentive price to justify that project from the outset if the cost numbers have been known. So this is not that complicated. It's not a greenfield project. We've operated there for 80 years or so. And it's about a straightforward project as you could have, but it's telling for the industry even with this kind of straightforward project, the challenge you face. It's cost, it's tailings, and we do benefit from infrastructure. This is just a mill expansion. It's not a building a new mine, but then there's a challenge of getting workers and housing for workers. So all of this is real telling on the supply side. I just talked about the demand side support for copper.

多很多。你的 4 美元絕對正確。我的意思是，你只要看看最近的項目，看看成本如何上升，然後如果成本數字已知，從一開始就可以從激勵價格中獲得什麼來證明該項目的合理性。所以這並沒有那麼複雜。這不是一個綠地項目。我們在那裡經營了大約 80 年。這是一個你可以擁有的簡單項目，但即使是這種簡單的項目，它也能告訴業界你所面臨的挑戰。這是成本，是尾礦，我們確實從基礎設施中受益。這只是工廠擴建。這不是建造一座新礦，但隨之而來的是尋找工人和為工人提供住房的挑戰。因此，所有這些在供應方面都是真實的。剛才講了需求面對銅的支撐。

This is a great example of a simple project in terms of the relative complexities of projects in our industry, this is relatively simple. And yet, it faces these challenges of being an economically justified in today's price. At the outset, I said today's copper price is not -- the price is adequate to stimulate the kind of investments that are going to be needed for this industry. And that's why we're optimistic about future prices.

這是一個簡單專案的一個很好的例子，就我們行業專案的相對複雜性而言，這是相對簡單的。然而，它面臨著在當今價格下經濟合理的挑戰。首先，我說今天的銅價不足以刺激該行業所需的投資。這就是我們對未來價格樂觀的原因。

Right. And maybe if I could just ask just on the capital allocation. I mean, you've got lots of options, as you said. But if you're successful for Phase 3, I mean you get as much production there as you would hear, I assume a fraction of the capital cost. Does Bagdad get pushed in that situation? I mean, I get that the world needs probably all of it. But would they get sequenced or are they complementary? I mean, I know they don't depend on each other, but are they complementary? And you would do both at once if both work?

正確的。也許我可以只問一下資本配置。我的意思是，正如你所說，你有很多選擇。但如果你在第三階段取得成功，我的意思是你在那裡獲得的產量與你聽到的一樣多，我假設資本成本的一小部分。巴格達在這種情況下會被逼迫嗎？我的意思是，我知道世界可能需要這一切。但它們會被定序還是互補的？我的意思是，我知道它們並不相互依賴，但它們是互補的嗎？如果兩者都有效的話你會同時做嗎？

We're prioritizing the leach initiative. I mean that is one that's a no-brainer for us. It's very, very little capital that we're investing in it and very low increment -- it's our lowest incremental operating cost of anything in the U.S. And so that's a no-brainer. We're pursuing that regardless. That makes a ton of sense, and we're pursuing that regardless. We think the world is going to need something beyond that, obviously. And so on the Bagdad thing, we just want to get it to where -- continue to enhance the optionality in it, and we need to do some things anyway. We're doing some infrastructure on tailings that we would need to do anyway in the future, maybe not as quickly as what it would need with the new project, but we need to do those anyway. So we're going to do those to the extent we can do that efficiently. We want this autonomous thing that we're pursuing.

我們正在優先考慮浸出計劃。我的意思是，這對我們來說是理所當然的事。我們投資的資本非常非常少，而且增量非常低——這是我們在美國所有增量營運成本中最低的，所以這是理所當然的。無論如何，我們都會追求這個目標。這很有意義，無論如何我們都會追求這一點。顯然，我們認為世界將需要更多的東西。所以在巴格達的事情上，我們只是想讓它達到目標——繼續增強它的可選性，無論如何我們都需要做些什麼。我們正在對尾礦進行一些基礎設施建設，這些基礎設施是我們將來無論如何都需要做的，也許不會像新項目所需的那麼快，但無論如何我們都需要做這些。因此，我們將在能夠有效地做到這一點的範圍內做到這一點。我們想要我們正在追求的這種自主的東西。

Years ago, people thought you didn't really need autonomous in the U.S. But now we -- particularly in these remote locations, you really, really do when you consider the cost of the workforce and the housing limitations and that sort of thing and the opportunities to upscale our employees, we think it checks all of those boxes. So autonomous, we want that to see how that unfolds.

幾年前，人們認為在美國並不真正需要自動化，但現在我們——尤其是在這些偏遠地區，當你考慮到勞動力成本和住房限制等諸如此類的事情時，你真的非常需要自動化。提升員工素質的機會，我們認為它滿足了所有這些要求。如此自主，我們希望看看它是如何展開的。

So we don't have to pull the trigger on Bagdad now but we want to put it in a position where it can go forward. It makes sense if the world needs more copper to get copper from where we already have it. And so it does -- it's a good project. It's not a barn burner from an economic standpoint, right now, but will have it today. And I think it will get time at some point. It's just we aren't predicting exactly when.

因此，我們現在不必扣動巴格達的扳機，但我們希望將其置於可以繼續前進的位置。如果世界需要更多的銅來從我們已有的地方取得銅，這是有道理的。確實如此——這是一個很好的項目。從經濟角度來看，它現在還不是一個穀倉燃燒器，但今天就會有。我認為在某個時候它會得到時間。只是我們無法準確預測具體時間。

And Brian, we got a strong enough financial position that we can -- capital is not a barrier for us to do in projects that make sense.

布萊恩，我們擁有足夠強大的財務狀況——資本並不是我們進行有意義的專案的障礙。

Your next question comes from the line of Alan Spence with BNP Paribas.

你的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的艾倫·史賓塞（Alan Spence）。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Alan, you're breaking up on us.

艾倫，你要跟我們分手了。

Sorry, I'll try again. Hopefully, you can hear me.

抱歉，我會再試一次。希望你能聽到我的聲音。

Yes, that's better.

是的，這樣更好。

The strong performance for Grasberg in December, is that a level you think could potentially be through '24? Or was there something you need about what happened last month? And also, if you could remind time line to get to 240,000 tonnes per day run rate?

Grasberg 在 12 月的強勁表現，您認為 24 世紀可能會達到這個水平嗎？或者您需要了解上個月發生的事情嗎？另外，您能否提醒一下達到 24 萬噸/日運行速度的時間表？

With respect to...

關於...

We've got a great -- Go ahead, Kathleen.

我們有一個很棒的——繼續吧，凱瑟琳。

Okay. I was going to say Mark Johnson is on the line, he can add to it. If you want with respect to December, what highlights, we got that SAG mill completed in December. So really, that gave us the ability to put more ore throughput through the concentrators. And with the combination of higher grades and strong recoveries, we had a great month.

好的。我本來想說馬克約翰遜在線，他可以補充。如果你想知道 12 月有哪些亮點，我們的半自磨機已於 12 月完工。事實上，這使我們能夠透過集中器提供更多吞吐量。更高的成績和強勁的恢復相結合，我們度過了愉快的一個月。

Now we have the ability to continue to have strong performance. We achieved a lot of records in December but we do have the ability and some upside to continue that. That SAG mill was originally put in the plan because over time, we'll need the additional grinding capacity, et cetera, to take the ore that will be coming but right now, while we're in these higher-grade sections, the more we can put through the mills, the better the copper production will be.

現在我們有能力繼續保持強勁的表現。我們在 12 月創造了很多記錄，但我們確實有能力和一些優勢來繼續保持這項記錄。這台半自磨機最初被列入計劃，因為隨著時間的推移，我們將需要額外的研磨能力等，以獲取即將到來的礦石，但現在，當我們處於這些較高品位的部分時，更多我們可以通過工廠，銅生產就越好。

In terms of the $240 million, right now, we don't have $240 million in our plans. But over time, with the addition of Kucing Liar, we'll have that capacity to do it. But having SAG3 does give us some more opportunities in the near term to -- if we continue to have high rates of ore produced from the underground will give us some upside.

就2.4億美元而言，目前我們的計畫中還沒有2.4億美元。但隨著時間的推移，隨著 Kucing Liar 的加入，我們將有能力做到這一點。但擁有 SAG3 確實在短期內為我們帶來了更多機會——如果我們繼續保持高產率的地下礦石產量，將為我們帶來一些好處。

A mine, we don't talk a lot about but one that we're going to try to keep improving on is the Big Gossan mine. It's a relatively small mine, but very, very high grade. And we've got some plans to bring in some additional and that's reflected in the 5-year guidance, but some additional throughput from Big Gossan that will add copper production and gold production.

我們不會過多談論一座礦山，但我們將努力不斷改進的一個礦山是 Big Gossan 礦山。這是一個相對較小的礦，但品位非常非常高。我們有一些計劃增加一些額外的產量，這反映在 5 年指導中，但 Big Gossan 的一些額外產量將增加銅產量和黃金產量。

And Mark, I don't know if you want to add to any of those comments.

馬克，我不知道你是否想添加任何評論。

Yes. Kathleen, the only thing I would add is as part of the KL project, we also add some -- over the shorter term, we had some ore flow capacity and optionality at GBC. We -- that allows us to get GBC up from like 120,000 up to 140,000 tonnes a day in 2026. And at that point, we'll be able to run close to 240,000 tonnes through the mill. The mine and mill will be matched. And then as you said, the KL come up and then GBC and KL share portions of the ore flow system, but over the short term, we sequenced that part of the KL ore flow that gives us the opportunity at GBC in the much shorter term.

是的。凱瑟琳，我唯一要補充的是，作為 KL 計畫的一部分，我們還添加了一些——在短期內，我們在 GBC 擁有一些礦石流動能力和選擇性。到 2026 年，這使我們能夠將 GBC 從每天 120,000 噸增加到 140,000 噸。到那時，我們將能夠透過工廠生產近 240,000 噸。礦山和磨坊將相匹配。然後正如你所說，KL 出現，然後 GBC 和 KL 共享部分礦石流系統，但在短期內，我們對 KL 礦石流的那部分進行了排序，這使我們在短期內有機會進入 GBC 。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自比爾彼得森與摩根大通的對話。

Nice job on the quarterly execution. Thanks for sneaking in my question here. So I wanted to come back to the leaching efforts, the incremental 200 million pounds. I think you mentioned 2- to 3-year period. Is that a fairly linear ramp? Or is that more back-end weighted? And you've consistently talked about low capital intensity. Can you remind us what the capital associated with this is, I guess, quantified? And has there been any CapEx creep in interim similar to just other broader projects?

季度執行情況良好。感謝您在這裡偷偷提出我的問題。所以我想回到浸出工作，增量 2 億磅。我想你提到了2到3年的時間。那是 30（聽不清楚）坡道嗎？或者說後端權重比較大？您一直在談論低資本密集度。您能提醒我們與此相關的資本是量化的嗎？與其他更廣泛的項目類似，期間是否存在任何資本支出攀升？

On the time frame for the incremental 200, we have not given a specific time frame. We do feel we can get it done within a couple of years, and we'll add whatever we can in the interim. This Leach Everywhere initiative that we have, where we are accessing parts of stockpiles that hadn't been accessed before getting access to some of the side slopes and some of the areas around the stockpile that we just didn't leach before. We're -- that's been a big driver of success and will continue to be.

關於增量200的時間框架，我們沒有給出具體的時間框架。我們確實認為我們可以在幾年內完成它，並且我們將在此期間添加任何我們可以添加的內容。我們實施的「無處不在的浸出」計劃，我們正在訪問部分庫存，這些部分在進入一些邊坡和庫存周圍的一些我們之前沒有浸出的區域之前從未被訪問過。我們——這一直是成功的重要推動力，並將繼續如此。

The other one that we're excited about is the targeted drilling. And through our data, we can see where you have situations where the solution that needs to get to the ore has been blocked for some reason over history. And this targeted drilling allows us to get access to it.

另一件令我們興奮的事情是定向鑽探。透過我們的數據，我們可以看到在歷史上，需要取得礦石的解決方案由於某種原因被阻止的情況。這種有針對性的鑽探使我們能夠接近它。

We are testing this year, some abilities to do that more at scale. And that is something that we're really interested to see how that develops and whether that will give us some additional incremental production. We haven't factored that into our plans at this point. But we're going to continue to use these covers. We still don't have everything on the -- stockpiles are so massive, covering -- spanning particularly Morenci, just miles of area.

今年我們正在測試一些更大規模的能力。我們真的很想知道它如何發展以及這是否會為我們帶來一些額外的增量生產。目前我們還沒有將其納入我們的計劃中。但我們將繼續使用這些封面。我們仍然沒有準備好所有物資——庫存如此龐大，覆蓋範圍特別廣——尤其是莫倫西，只有數英里的區域。

And so we're still doing the covers. We're still looking for other opportunities to get heat into the stockpiles. We're targeting some pyrite ores in some of our operations that have pyrite in the ores, that is a source of heat as well.

所以我們仍在做封面。我們仍在尋找其他機會來增加庫存。我們的一些作業中的目標是一些黃鐵礦礦石，礦石中含有黃鐵礦，這也是熱源。

But there are a number of things that we're working on that are not the big R&D effort, but things that we can do from an operational standpoint. But we'll stay tuned. We will -- this is a big initiative and stay tuned as we go forward, love to give you a little bit more as we go through 2024 in terms of the time frame.

但我們正在做的許多事情並不是大量的研發工作，而是我們從營運角度可以做的事情。但我們會繼續關注。我們將—這是一項重大舉措，請繼續關注我們的進展，我們很樂意在 2024 年的時間框架內為您提供更多資訊。

We haven't spent much capital on this initiative. We've already got the infrastructure -- basic infrastructure, the tank house capacity, this is copper that goes to tank house, not a smelter. And we have already excess latent tank house capacity. We've spent some money but it doesn't round to anything really big. The operating cost -- the incremental operating costs of this have been very low on the order of $1 per pound and so it's just a really, really exciting opportunity for us to generate value. And so as we go forward, we don't see huge amounts of capital either that will come into play.

我們並沒有在這項計劃上投入太多資金。我們已經有了基礎設施——基礎設施、儲罐容量，這是進入儲罐的銅，而不是冶煉廠。我們已經擁有過剩的潛在罐房容量。我們花了一些錢，但並沒有帶來什麼重大的改變。營運成本——增量營運成本非常低，約為每磅 1 美元，因此這對我們來說是一個非常非常令人興奮的創造價值的機會。因此，當我們前進時，我們也看不到大量資本會發揮作用。

When you get to this piece that's R&D, that's where we need to make sure that all these things can be applied and deployed at scale and can be economic. But that is just ongoing. But the first 400 million pounds, we think that we can do that without spending a lot of capital.

當你談到研發這一部分時，我們需要確保所有這些東西都可以大規模地應用和部署，並且可以是經濟的。但這只是持續進行的。但前4億英鎊，我們認為不需要花費大量資金就可以做到。

Thanks, Kathleen. And you may have noted this, Kathleen, but importantly, there's no permitting issues. And that is a real challenge for any kind of project you do in terms of brownfield expansions and really tougher greenfield expansion. So here, no capital, low operating costs, no permitting delays.

謝謝，凱瑟琳。凱瑟琳，您可能已經注意到這一點，但重要的是，不存在任何許可問題。對於您所做的任何類型的棕地擴張和更艱難的綠地擴張而言，這都是一個真正的挑戰。所以在這裡，沒有資本，營運成本低，不允許延誤。

Our final question will come from the line of Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities.

我們的最後一個問題將來自美國銀行證券公司的勞森·溫德（Lawson Winder）。

I just -- if I could just sneak in 1.5 questions. One would just be on the current level of the dividend. I mean, is your view that given the cash flow outlook, your view of the copper price, I mean, is this a comfortable level for the dividend for 2024? And then just my half question would be, is there any movement within your existing TCRC contracts to potentially renegotiate those or get the benefit of some of the really, really low spot pricing we're seeing today?

我只是——如果我能偷偷問 1.5 個問題就好了。其中之一就是目前的股利水準。我的意思是，考慮到現金流前景，您對銅價的看法，我的意思是，這對於 2024 年的股息來說是一個舒適的水平嗎？然後我的一半問題是，你們現有的 TCRC 合約中是否有任何可能重新談判這些合約的動向，或者從我們今天看到的一些非常非常低的現貨定價中獲益？

On the dividend question, our Board reviews the financial policy on a regular basis, and we put in place the base dividend, the variable dividend, and we've been paying at that level for some time now. We'll continue to review that with the Board. You can see from our results -- the financial results that we're projecting for 2024 and it look very good but we always going to look at what's going on in the market and don't want to put ourselves in a position of running up debt, but -- and -- but we have a good balance sheet. So I don't want to front-run anything. The Board will look at this on a regular basis, but our financial position is in really, really excellent shape.

關於股息問題，我們的董事會定期審查財務政策，我們制定了基本股息、可變股息，我們已經按這個水平支付了一段時間了。我們將繼續與董事會一起審查這一點。你可以從我們的業績中看到——我們預計 2024 年的財務業績看起來非常好，但我們總是會關注市場正在發生的事情，並且不想讓自己處於領先地位債務，但是——而且——但是我們有良好的資產負債表。所以我不想搶先做任何事。董事會將定期對此進行審查，但我們的財務狀況非常非常出色。

The second question on TCRCs, we reach agreement, as you know, with -- on long-term TCRCs that are done on fixed contracts once a year. And since then, spot rates have come a lot, lot lower given the tightness in supply. We do sell some things on a spot basis, but most of it is sold under these fixed contracts where we have the TCRCs fixed. The other thing is once we get the smelter in Indonesia up and running, we don't have -- we still do what Cerro -- still have with Cerro Verde concentrate that we sell. But everything from Indonesia will be really just processed through our own smelters.

關於 TCRC 的第二個問題，如您所知，我們就長期 TCRC 達成了協議，這些長期 TCRC 每年根據固定合約進行一次。從那時起，由於供應緊張，即期匯率大幅下降。我們確實以現貨方式出售一些東西，但大部分都是根據這些固定合約出售的，其中我們有固定的 TCRC。另一件事是，一旦我們在印尼的冶煉廠啟動並運行，我們就沒有——我們仍然做 Cerro 的事情——仍然有我們銷售的 Cerro Verde 精礦。但來自印尼的所有東西實際上都將透過我們自己的冶煉廠進行加工。

And our contracts are long term in terms of volumes, but the TCRCs are renegotiated each year. And you raised a great point for those of you who haven't followed it, but the situation right now with smelters where they can't get concentrate to process is a real strong indicator of where this market is and where it's going.

我們的合約就數量而言是長期的，但 TCRC 每年都會重新談判。對於那些沒有關注的人來說，您提出了一個很好的觀點，但目前冶煉廠無法集中精礦進行加工的情況是這個市場現狀和走向的真正強有力的指標。

I'll turn the call back to management for any closing remarks.

我會將電話轉回給管理階層，讓其結束語。

We appreciate it, everyone. If there are any follow-ups, feel free to call David and we're available to continue to discuss and we'll report to you our progress throughout the year.

我們很感激大家。如果有任何後續行動，請隨時致電 David，我們可以繼續討論，並將向您報告我們全年的進展。

Yes. Thank you for joining us today, and everyone, have a great day.

是的。感謝您今天加入我們，祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call for today. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的呼籲到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。