FTI Consulting Inc (FCN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the FTI Consulting fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 FTI Consulting 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意，該事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Mollie Hawkes, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在，我想將會議交給投資人關係主管莫莉‧霍克斯女士。請繼續，女士。

Good morning. Welcome to the FTI Consulting conference call to discuss the company's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings results. As reported this morning, management will begin with formal remarks after which they will take your questions. Before we begin, I would like to thank everyone on this conference call. Forward looking statements within the meaning of Section 27 A. of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

早安.歡迎參加 FTI Consulting 電話會議，討論公司 2024 年第四季和全年獲利結果。正如今天早上報道的那樣，管理層將首先發表正式講話，然後回答大家的問題。在我們開始之前，我想感謝參加電話會議的所有人。1933 年證券法第 27 A 節和 1934 年證券交易法第 21 條規定的含義內的前瞻性陳述。

That all statements include statements concerning plans, initiative, projection, prospect, policy, processes, and practices, objectives, goal, commitments, strategy, future events, future revenues, future results, and performance, future capital allocation and expenditure, expectations or intentions relating to acquisitions, share repurchase and other matters, business, new or changes to laws and regulations, scientific for technical developments and other information or other matters that are non-historical, including statements regarding estimates of our future financial results and other matters.

所有聲明均包括關於計劃、舉措、預測、前景、政策、流程和實踐、目的、承諾、戰略、未來事件、未來收入、未來結果和業績、未來資本配置和支出、與收購、股票回購和其他事項有關的期望或意向、業務、法律法規的新規定或變化、科學技術發展和其他信息或其他非歷史事項的聲明，包括關於我們未來財務結果和其他事項的估計聲明。

Procession of risks and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ from those contemplated by forward-looking statements. Investors should review the Safe Harbor statement in our earnings press release issued this morning, a copy of which is available on our website at www.fticonsulting,com, as well as other disclosures under the heading of risk factors and forward-looking Information in our quarterly report on our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 and other brands with the SEC. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of their earnings calls and will not be updated.

風險和其他因素的處理可能導致實際結果或事件與前瞻性陳述所預期的不同。投資者應查看我們今天上午發布的收益新聞稿中的安全港聲明，該聲明的副本可在我們的網站 www.fticonsulting.com 上查閱，以及我們截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度報告的季度報告中和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他品牌中風險因素和前瞻性信息披露。提醒投資人不要過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅代表收益電話會議之日的觀點，不會更新。

During the call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures such as total segment operating income, adjusted EBITDA, total adjusted segment EBITDA, adjusted earnings per diluted share, adjusted net income, adjusted EBITDA margin, and free cash flow. For a discussion of these other non-GAAP financial measures as well as are reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, investors should review the press release and the accompanying financial tables that we issued this morning, which includes the reconciliations.

在電話會議中，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，例如分部總營業收入、調整後 EBITDA、調整後分部總 EBITDA、調整後每股攤薄收益、調整後淨收入、調整後 EBITDA 利潤率和自由現金流。有關這些其他非公認會計準則財務指標以及非公認會計準則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則指標的對帳的討論，投資者應查看我們今天上午發布的新聞稿和隨附的財務表，其中包括對帳表。

Lastly, there are two items that have been posted to investor relations section of our website for your reference. It is include our quarterly earnings presentation and Excel and PDF of our historical financial and operating data, which has been updated to include our fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results. Of note, during today's prepared remarks, management will not speak directly to the quarterly earnings presentation posted to the investor relations section of our website. To ensure our disposals are consistent, these slides provide the similar details as they have historically, and as I said, are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

最後，有兩項內容已發佈到我們網站的投資者關係部分供您參考。它包括我們的季度收益報告以及歷史財務和營運數據的 Excel 和 PDF，其中已更新為包括我們的第四季度和 2024 年全年業績。值得注意的是，在今天的準備好的發言中，管理層不會直接談到我們網站投資者關係部分發布的季度收益報告。為了確保我們的處置一致，這些幻燈片提供了與歷史上類似的詳細信息，並且正如我所說，可以在我們網站的“投資者關係”部分找到。

With these formularies away, I'm joined today by Steve Gunby, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Ajay Sabherwal, our Chief Financial Officer. At this time, I'll turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Gunby.

在發布這些處方集之後，今天與我一起出席的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官史蒂夫·岡比 (Steve Gunby) 和首席財務官阿賈伊·薩布赫瓦爾 (Ajay Sabherwal)。現在，我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長史蒂夫岡比 (Steve Gunby)。

Thank you, Mollie. Welcome, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm sure many of you have already seen some of the results we reported this morning. What I'd like to do is start by sharing some perspective on 2024, which was a year with some terrific elements. It was also a year particularly towards the second half of the year where we have some shortfalls versus our expectations. And then I'd like to spend the bulk of the time on 2025, a year where I would say we are probably facing a serious headwinds as we have had in a while.

謝謝你，莫莉。歡迎大家，感謝大家今天的參加。我相信你們中的許多人已經看到了我們今天早上報告的一些結果。首先，我想分享一些對 2024 年的看法，這一年充滿了精彩的元素。今年尤其下半年，我們的業績與預期仍有差距。然後我想花大部分時間談論 2025 年，我想說，在這一年，我們可能會面臨嚴重的阻力，就像我們在一段時間內遇到的那樣。

And in that connection, I tried to communicate both once we see the potential headwinds are an important transition to share a sense of the potential magnitude of the headwinds, because together, they are creating about a serious challenge for the P&L for a year as we've seen in awhile. So I will spend a fair amount of time on the potential challenges for 2025.

在這方面，一旦我們看到潛在的阻力，我就會嘗試進行溝通，這是一個重要的轉變，以分享對阻力潛在程度的認識，因為正如我們在一段時間內看到的那樣，它們共同對一年的損益表構成了嚴峻挑戰。因此，我會花相當多的時間來探討 2025 年可能面臨的挑戰。

But I will also, with your permission, take a moment to close the session by reviewing something fundamental, something important, which is that the success of this company over the last 10 years has never been about optimizing a given quarter or even optimizing the year. What has driven our success has been continually focusing on building a stronger business business, ever more able to deliver for our clients and ever more attractive for great professionals to be part of it. As a result, delivering a multiyear trajectory of growth.

但是，如果你們允許的話，我在結束本次會議時也會花一點時間回顧一些基本、重要的事情，那就是這家公司過去 10 年的成功從來都不是關於優化某個季度，甚至不是關於優化某一年。我們成功的動力來自於我們始終致力於打造更強大的業務，更好地為客戶提供服務，並吸引更多優秀專業人士加入。從而實現了多年的成長軌跡。

At the end of the talk this morning, I will reiterate, though, I am somewhat sober about the headwinds we're facing in front of us for 2025, I do remain incredibly bullish about the company about the multiyear trajectory the company has been on a multiyear trajectory that I believe we will continue to be.

在今天早上的演講結束時，我想重申，儘管我對 2025 年我們面臨的阻力保持一定清醒的認識，但我對公司多年來的發展軌跡仍然非常樂觀，我相信我們將繼續保持這種勢頭。

All right. Let me start with 2024. As I think one of you know, we have a terrific first half of the year. Revenues, you may recall, were up 12% and EPS grew 48% compared to the first half of 2023. Now some of that strong performance in the first half was because we are cycling a slow first half of 2023 quarters, but it is also somewhat because of what we did because I think in many other firms did not report anywhere near as good results in that period.

好的。讓我從 2024 年開始。我想你們都知道，我們今年上半年的表現非常棒。您可能還記得，與 2023 年上半年相比，營收成長了 12%，每股盈餘成長了 48%。上半年表現強勁的部分原因是 2023 年上半年我們的業績表現緩慢，但也有部分原因是我們的所作所為，因為我認為許多其他公司在這段時期的業績並不如我們所願。

Our teams were big jobs in the marketplace. And some of the bets we've made in prior years came to fruition at this time. And those results were notwithstanding the fact that we continue to attract during the year and invest in great talent, which always has cost us some money in the first year. Let me turn to the second half of the year.

我們的團隊在市場上承擔重大任務。我們前幾年做的一些賭注現在都實現了。儘管我們在這一年中繼續吸引和投資優秀人才，但這仍然取得了這些成果，而這總會在第一年花費我們一些資金。讓我來談談今年下半年。

We always expected that year on year growth would be slower, mainly because we knew we were cycling a much stronger second half of 2023. But the sales we actually got in the second half of 2024 turned out to be even a bit slower than we expected.

我們一直預期年成長會放緩，主要是因為我們知道 2023 年下半年的成長會更加強勁。但我們在 2024 年下半年實際獲得的銷售額比我們預期的還要慢一些。

Last quarter, we talked about the fact that we only had revenue growth of 3.7% year on year, which is the slowest growth we have seen in a while this quarter. We were actually down year on year and down sequentially. Now I think most of us on this call know that our multiyear growth, the performance of this company over time has never been a straight line up and we never expected to be.

上個季度，我們談到了這樣一個事實：我們的收入同比僅增長 3.7%，這是本季度一段時間以來的最低增長。我們的業績實際上同比和環比均有所下降。現在我想我們大多數參加電話會議的人都知道我們多年的成長，這家公司長期以來的業績從來都不是直線上升的，我們也從未期望過會這樣。

However, I did want to point out that we did expect the business to be a bit better in the second half. We knew was going to be slow and it actually turned out to be worse. That's somewhat improve and for explaining 2024 results, but it's also important because it presents the revenue trajectory that is carrying into 2025 as a headwind.

不過，我想指出的是，我們確實預計下半年業務會好一些。我們知道情況會很慢，但事實上情況更糟。這在某種程度上有所改善，並有助於解釋 2024 年的結果，但它也很重要，因為它將帶入 2025 年的收入軌跡視為逆風。

So I will turn to 2025 in a minute. But before I get to 2025 months, I'm trying to some of 2024. I'm going to talk about the fact that we were a little disappointed about because of the cumulative second-half effect. But I think it's appropriate to point out that it was yet another year of record revenues. With a 10 year in a row -- the 10th year in a row of adjusted EPS growth. So look, there's a lot to be proud for 2024, but it's also true that relative to our expectations, the second half, we are disappointed. And as a consequence, the year as a whole, but certainly not terrible in fully probably beat our expectations.

我馬上就會轉到 2025 年。但在到達 2025 個月之前，我正在嘗試到達 2024 年的一些月份。我要談的是，由於下半場累積的影響，我們感到有點失望。但我認為有必要指出，這又是創下收入紀錄的一年。連續 10 年－連續 10 年調整後每股盈餘成長。所以看，2024 年有很多值得驕傲的事情，但相對於我們的預期，下半年我們也確實感到失望。因此，今年全年的表現雖然不算太糟糕，但很可能完全超出了我們的預期。

With that on '24, let me turn to 2025 and some of the headwinds we're facing. Obviously, the slow growth trajectory as an issue we bring into 2025. But in addition, there are several other important headwinds that I want to make sure we talked to. Probably the most important, which I'll talk to at some length is that we're in the process of seeing a number of senior departures in our US competition, part of our compass Lexicon subsidiary, which in turn, as you may remember, as part of our e-com business.

說完了‘24’，讓我將目光轉向‘2025’以及我們將面臨的一些阻力。顯然，緩慢的成長軌跡是我們進入 2025 年面臨的問題。但除此之外，還有其他幾個重要的不利因素，我希望確保我們能夠討論。可能最重要的一點，我將詳細談論的是，我們即將看到美國競爭對手的一些高層離職，他們是我們指南針 Lexicon 子公司的一部分，而您可能還記得，他們又是我們電子商務業務的一部分。

And we currently believe that a number of can create some substantial headwinds, particularly for that subset of the business, but are sufficient magnitude that it will create headwinds for us as a company as a whole this year. The second issue is much more technical issue, which is we happened to be cycling a particularly low tax rate in 2024, which is not technically a headwind, but it does create some tough comparisons year on year. So it's akin to a headwind.

我們目前認為，一些因素可能會帶來一些重大阻力，特別是對該業務子集而言，但其強度足以對我們整個公司今年造成阻力。第二個問題更多的是技術問題，也就是我們恰好在 2024 年實施了特別低的稅率，這在技術上並不是一個阻力，但確實造成了逐年比較的困難。所以這類似逆風。

And then not really at all a headwind, in fact, a very good thing, but a headwind in the near-term financials and the fact that we continue to see great opportunities, terrific opportunities to attract and invest in people on the phone is continuing to ring off the hook for people who want to join us. And as we've always done, we are committed to make -- to take advantage of those opportunities when we see them, notwithstanding the near-term financial pressures we may feel.

這實際上根本不是逆風，事實上，這是一件非常好的事情，但是短期財務狀況卻面臨逆風，而且我們繼續透過電話看到巨大的機遇，吸引和投資人才的絕佳機會，這對想要加入我們的人來說繼續是巨大的誘惑。正如我們一直以來所做的那樣，儘管我們可能感受到短期財務壓力，但我們致力於抓住這些機會。

So let me talk about those a little bit more depth so you can get a sense of magnitude. In terms of revenue slowdown, as Ajay talked about in October, we did see the revenue momentum slowing in the third quarter, and we thought that the slowdown might persist. And it has and in fact, it worsened year-on-year and to the fourth quarter. It is hard to pinpoint one thing that has caused that slowdown, apart from what I mentioned before, that we were cycling out an incredibly strong second half of '23.

所以讓我更深入地談論這些，以便你能夠感受到其重要性。在收入放緩方面，正如阿賈伊在 10 月談到的那樣，我們確實看到第三季收入勢頭放緩，而且我們認為這種放緩可能會持續下去。事實上，與去年同期相比，第四季的情況有所惡化。除了我之前提到的，我們經歷了 2023 年下半年異常強勁的成長之外，很難指出導致這種放緩的原因。

As, I think, many of you know, we were not alone in seeing slower performance in part of 2024. So some of it appears to be market forces. For example, we had a fourth quarter slowdown in our activity in our M&A-related businesses in Econ and Tech and Corp Fin, where we had a large -- a number of large jobs roll off and not as many large jobs start. And we believe that, that was at least in part driven by the US M&A market slowing in the fourth quarter.

我想，很多人都知道，我們並不是唯一一個在 2024 年部分時間內看到業績放緩的國家。因此其中一部分似乎是市場力量。例如，我們在經濟和技術以及公司金融領域的併購相關業務的第四季度活動放緩，這些業務中有大量大型工作崗位流失，而大型工作崗位的新增數量卻沒有那麼多。我們認為，這至少在一定程度上是由於美國第四季併購市場放緩。

And there is, as you probably know, a fair amount of pressure on different economies around the world. For example, in the UK and we believe in that case, some of those pressures on the economy as a whole has affected several of our businesses. So market forces clearly appeared to be one of the factors. But I also think that some things that drove our slowdown in sales were idiosyncratic to us. Like, for example, our strategy business in Corp Fin, which had several large jobs roll off over the first last few quarters, which we haven't yet replaced.

你們可能也知道，世界各地的經濟體都面臨相當大的壓力。例如，在英國，我們認為，整個經濟面臨的一些壓力已經影響了我們的幾項業務。因此，市場力量顯然是其中一個因素。但我也認為，導致我們銷售放緩的一些因素是我們特有的。例如，我們的公司金融策略業務在過去幾季中有幾個大型職位被裁撤，而我們還沒有找到替代職位。

As we have talked about, the nature of our business, the core nature of our business is that we can always have substantial lumpiness quarter-to-quarter in individual segments and for the company as a whole. And when we've had that in the past, it has never been a permanent condition and important. There is no belief today that it is a permanent condition.

正如我們所討論的，我們業務的性質，我們業務的核心性質是，我們各個部門以及整個公司各個季度的業績總是會出現很大的差異。當我們過去擁有這種情況時，它從來都不是一個永久的狀態，也不重要。如今，人們不再相信這是一種永久的狀態。

We are currently forecasting solid revenue growth for every one of our business segments, except for Econ, which, of course, is because of the headwinds I'll talk about in the US competition practice. But one of the reasons for our caution is it's also the case that right now, except for FLCs, the parts of Stratcom, a little pickup in the pause in M&A activity we saw in the fourth quarter in Corp Fin and Tech to date, we haven't yet seen the major resurgence of our overall revenue trajectory. So I hope that one is clear.

目前，我們預測，除 Econ 之外，我們每個業務部門的收入都將實現穩健增長，這當然是由於我將在美國競爭實踐中談到的逆風所致。但我們謹慎的原因之一是，目前的情況是，除了 FLC、Stratcom 的部分業務以及我們在第四季度看到的公司金融和技術領域的併購活動略有回升之外，我們還沒有看到整體收入軌蹟的大幅復甦。所以我希望這一點是清楚的。

Let me talk to the second headwind, which is clearly idiosyncratic to us, which is in addition to whatever market headwinds there are in Econ, we are in the process of experiencing some dislocation in our Compass Lexecon subsidiary, in particular, with the part of the business that deals with US competition work.

讓我來談談第二個不利因素，這顯然是我們特有的，除了 Econ 存在的市場不利因素之外，我們的 Compass Lexecon 子公司還經歷了一些混亂，特別是與美國競爭工作相關的業務部分。

In that part of the business so far in the first quarter, we've had the departures of a number of senior professionals. And we currently believe that quite a number of less tenured people may also depart as well, which together will create a headwind for revenue and profitability as the year goes on and potentially into early '26.

截至第一季度，該業務領域已有數名高階專業人員離職。目前，我們認為相當多任職時間較短的人員也可能離職，這將對今年稍後以及可能持續到26年初的收入和盈利能力造成阻力。

So we talked a little bit about how do we dimensionalise this for you, and the problem is it's very early days. And so we cannot be certain about the exact magnitude of the effects. So one possibility for this call was simply to use the word substantial. We think it could have a substantial effect, and hence, we're talking about it. I think the problem with that is, as I'm sure many of you know, the word substantial can mean so many different things.

因此，我們稍微討論瞭如何為您實現這一點，但問題是現在還處於早期階段。因此我們無法確定其影響的具體程度。因此，這次呼籲的一個可能性就是簡單地使用「實質」這個詞。我們認為它可能會產生重大影響，因此我們正在討論它。我認為問題在於，我相信很多人都知道，「實質」這個詞可以有許多不同的意義。

So let me try given -- which is hard in the context of it being early days to at least give you some sort of dimensionalising using a historical analogy. When I first started in my first year in that same Compass Lexecon subsidiary 11 years ago, we had a dislocation. It wasn't the exact same dislocation, but it was a substantial dislocation. A dislocation that handed me in my first year, a $35 million decline in adjusted EBITDA in that segment. So I want to say, even though we don't know the exact numbers here, it could be in the order of that same magnitude as this unfolds.

所以讓我嘗試給出——這在早期的背景下很難至少使用歷史類比給你某種維度。11 年前，當我剛在同一家 Compass Lexecon 子公司開始工作的第一年，我們遇到了一次混亂。這並非完全相同的錯位，但卻是一次相當大的錯位。這種混亂導致我上任第一年該部門的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）就下降了 3,500 萬美元。所以我想說，儘管我們不知道具體的數字，但隨著事態的發展，其數量級可能是相同的。

Now just to be a little redundant, the issue with that sort of dimensionalising is we are very much at the early stages. We don't know exactly how many senior departures we will have, how many junior people will end up leaving. More important, how many great people will see this as a great opportunity to join our firm. So it's hard to estimate the exact effect, but what we wanted to do is to communicate here that we do not expect the effect to be trivial.

現在稍微重複一下，這種維度化的問題是我們尚處於早期階段。我們不知道到底會有多少高級職員離職，又有多少初級職員會離開。更重要的是，有多少優秀人才會將此視為加入我們公司的絕佳機會。因此很難估計確切的效果，但我們想要在這裡傳達的是，我們並不認為效果是微不足道的。

I'm going to take a risk here, as my General Counsel is going to stare at me and my comments and maybe ad-lib a couple of comments. I'd tell you 11 years ago, when I got handed a $35 million hit, which nobody had told me about when I was interviewing, it hit. But it hit also because the business at that time was a business that had no growth engines. There wasn't a single business that had been growing in the past few years. We had not extended overseas. We didn't have the leadership team that we had today. We didn't have the quality, the vast quality of people and the hunger and the drive and the energy and the conviction that characterizes this company today. I think we are less than half the current size. So that really hit me.

在這裡我要冒個險，因為我的總法律顧問將會盯著我和我的評論，也許會即興發表一些評論。我可以告訴你，11 年前，當我接到一筆 3500 萬美元的重金時，我接受採訪時沒有人告訴我這件事，但這筆錢確實賺到了。但它受到打擊也是因為當時的業務缺乏成長引擎。過去幾年裡，沒有一家企業成長。我們尚未拓展海外業務。我們並沒有如今這樣的領導團隊。我們不具備當今公司所特有的素質、廣泛的人才、渴望成功、幹勁十足、充滿活力和堅定的信念。我認為我們的規模還不到現在的一半。這確實讓我很受打擊。

Today, this is not something I like to report. It's not like something I like to forecast. It's not something I'd like to talk about. We have to talk about because it's significant enough that we should disclose it to you. But we are nowhere near in that situation. This company is a vibrant growth engine, and it's a pain. And some of the circumstances around it are a pain, and that has led to us having a lawsuit around some of the circumstances around it. us settling a lawsuit around the circumstances around it. But the company is in a fundamentally better shape. And so we will get through it. It is just something that we thought we should disclose to you.

今天，這不是我喜歡報道的事。這不像是我喜歡預測的事。這不是我想談論的事情。我們必須談論它，因為它非常重要，我們應該向您披露。但我們遠遠沒有達到那種境地。這家公司是一個充滿活力的成長引擎，但卻很痛苦。有些情況確實很麻煩，這導致我們針對某些情況提起訴訟。我們根據相關情況解決訴訟。但從根本上來說，該公司的狀況要好一些。這樣我們就能渡過難關。這只是我們認為應該向您披露的事情。

The other point I want to describe and is that, yes, this hits that business. It is a fabulous business. FTI's Econ practices under the Compass Lexecon brand and the FTI brand together constitute the leading group of economists around the world, the best group of economists around the world today and even after these departures.

我想描述的另一點是，是的，這對該業務造成了影響。這是一項了不起的事業。FTI 在 Compass Lexecon 品牌下的經濟學實踐與 FTI 品牌共同構成了全球領先的經濟學家團隊，也是當今乃至這些人離開後全球最優秀的經濟學家團隊。

Even after these departures, I believe we would still have the single most powerful, vibrant, respected economic consulting firm with the best collective group of practitioners in the world. So our point is not that this business is going away. It's a great business. It will still be a great business, but we can't ignore the fact that it will have an effect on this business and is big enough to have an effect on the company. So we thought we'd spend a little bit of time describing that. I hope that is clear.

我相信，即使這些人離開之後，我們仍然擁有世界上最強大、最具活力、最受尊敬的經濟顧問公司，以及最優秀的從業人員團隊。所以我們的觀點並不是說這個業務將會消失。這是一項偉大的事業。它仍然會是一項偉大的業務，但我們不能忽視它會對這項業務產生影響的事實，而且影響大到足以對公司產生影響。因此我們想花一點時間來描述這一點。我希望這是清楚的。

The third issue is a much simpler and more technical point, which Ajay will turn to, which is we had a particularly low tax rate in 2024, which was largely due to nonrecurring factors, and we will be cycling that. I mean that's the sort of stuff that happens from year-on-year, but we should point it out.

第三個問題是一個更簡單、更技術性的問題，阿賈伊將會談到這一點，那就是我們在 2024 年的稅率特別低，這主要是由於非經常性因素，我們將循環這個過程。我的意思是，這種事情年復一年地發生，但我們應該指出這一點。

The fourth headwind, as mentioned before, is not really a headwind at all, but really a terrific thing that represents a headwind in terms of near-term financial results, which is that we continue to get tremendous level of interest from top talent. And we, of course, are continuing our multiyear commitment to take advantage of those opportunities to build the businesses as those people come available.

第四個不利因素，正如前面提到的，實際上根本不是不利因素，但實際上是一件非常可怕的事情，它代表了近期財務業績方面的不利因素，那就是我們繼續受到頂尖人才的極大關注。當然，我們將繼續履行多年的承諾，利用這些機會在人才到位後發展業務。

As you know, we do have a responsibility to be disciplined. In that light, we took some significant corrective action last quarter and this quarter in areas of sustained low utilization. That discipline is essential. But we now have a management team, an aligned group of people that realize that while being disciplined is essential, that the key driver of our powerful multiyear success has been the commitment through that discipline to find great people, to invest in them, to attract them, to support them as they build businesses independent of any current potential P&L stress. So we have a team that is going to continue to do it even if it does have some initial P&L cost.

正如你們所知，我們確實有責任遵守紀律。有鑑於此，我們在上個季度和本季針對利用率持續較低的地區採取了一些重大糾正措施。這種紀律至關重要。但是，我們現在有了一個管理團隊，一群團結一致的人，他們意識到雖然紀律嚴明必不可少，但我們多年取得巨大成功的關鍵驅動力是透過紀律來尋找優秀人才、投資他們、吸引他們、支持他們建立獨立於任何當前潛在損益壓力的業務。因此，我們有一個團隊將繼續做這件事，即使它確實有一些初始損益成本。

So what does that all add up to? Ajay will talk about it in more depth and more quantitatively. Conceptually, it adds up to more headwinds for this year than we've typically had, more than we've seen in a while. As a consequence, our guidance for this year is not up as much as we typically have. It's more muted. So it's not likely our current view to be the easiest year we've seen.

那麼這一切意味著什麼呢？Ajay 將會更深入、更量化地談論這一點。從概念上講，今年我們面臨的阻力將比以往任何時候更大，比我們之前所見的還要大。因此，我們今年的預期並沒有像往常那樣大幅上漲。它更加安靜。因此，我們目前認為今年不太可能是迄今為止最輕鬆的一年。

But before I close, let me see if I can step back from the details of those and all the issues that we wanted to make sure we brought to your attention and maybe offer a little perspective on them. And on the year, which may not be as good as we had in the last few years, but also on the multiyear trajectory we have been on, and we believe we are going to stay on.

但在結束之前，請容許我看看是否能暫時放下這些問題的細節，以及我們希望引起您注意的所有問題，並提供一些關於它們的看法。今年的情況可能不如過去幾年，但考慮到我們多年來的發展軌跡，我們相信我們會繼續保持下去。

At one point, I'm not sure how many of you on this call have been covering us for long enough to remember this. But at one point, I suspect a few of you do remember this. This company was never up more than two years in a row. We'd be up two years and down a year or sometimes up one year and then down a year. We've now had a period of 10 years in a row of adjusted EPS growth. And if we hit the midpoint of our guidance, even if our guidance isn't as bullish as we have been in previous year, if we hit the midpoint of that guidance, it will be 11 years.

有時候，我不確定在座的各位中，有多少人已經報道我們很久了，能夠記住這一點。但在某一時刻，我想你們中的一些人確實記得這一點。這家公司從來沒有連續上漲超過兩年。有時會是兩年上漲，一年下跌，或有時一年上漲，一年下跌。我們現在已經連續 10 年實現調整後每股盈餘成長。如果我們達到了預期的中點，即使我們的預期不像去年那麼樂觀，但如果我們達到了預期的中點，那麼將是 11 年。

Yes, this year may be the toughest year we've had in a while. We have market forces against us, some idiosyncratic forces against us. None of those forces challenge the underlying strength of the people in our firm or what they've shown or the power of the ways we have shown we can help clients sometimes in the most critical times in their existence. Nothing in those market forces or this year's idiosyncratic forces challenges the fundamental strength that has driven this company that has allowed us to grow to allow us to become the vibrant growth engine that attracts the sort of people we do. Market forces do, of course, affect us. idiosyncratic forces do affect us.

是的，今年可能是我們這段時間以來最艱難的一年。我們面臨市場力量的阻力，以及一些特殊力量的阻力。這些力量都無法挑戰我們公司員工的內在實力、他們所展現出的能力，也無法挑戰我們在客戶最危急的時刻幫助他們的方法的力量。無論是市場力量還是今年的特殊力量，都無法挑戰推動這家公司發展的根本力量，正是這種根本力量使我們得以成長，並成為吸引我們這類人才的充滿活力的成長引擎。當然，市場力量確實會影響我們。特殊力量確實會影響我們。

As we've talked about before, market forces come and go and idiosyncratic forces do as well, at least if you manage them right. What we have believed, and I think the data show that, yes, over short periods of time, market forces and idiosyncratic forces can impact us, potentially have a major impact. But I believe the same data also show that if we maintain our focus, we maintain our commitment to do the right things for the business. We have to monitor the market forces. We have to adjust what we do.

正如我們之前談到的，市場力量來來去去，特殊力量也是如此，至少如果你管理得當的話。我們相信，而且我認為數據也表明，是的，在短時間內，市場力量和特殊力量能夠對我們產生影響，而且可能會產生重大影響。但我相信同樣的數據也表明，如果我們保持專注，我們就會保持為企業做正確事情的承諾。我們必須監控市場力量。我們必須調整我們的所作所為。

But underlying that, we focus on what matters in professional services, the fundamentals, attracting great people, supporting those people, people who have drive to make a difference for the clients, who have drive to mentor and see grow the careers of people behind them. If we do all those things, actually, we still have substantial zig-zags. We just have substantial zig-zags in portions of the business and perhaps overall. But what we've also shown is that through those zig-zags over any extended period of time, those zig-zags surround a powerfully upward sloping line for shareholders, for clients and for our people. Some years, they slope up less. Some years, they slope up more.

但在此基礎上，我們專注於專業服務中真正重要的事情，即基本面，吸引優秀人才，支持那些有動力為客戶帶來改變的人，有動力去指導並見證背後人們職業成長的人。實際上，如果我們做到了所有這些事情，我們仍然會面臨相當大的曲折。我們的業務部分甚至整體都出現了大幅波動。但我們也表明，在任何較長的時間段內，這些曲折都會為股東、客戶和我們的員工帶來一條強勁的向上傾斜線。有些年份，坡度較小。有些年份，坡度會更大。

Over time, we've proven that, that commitment delivers a powerfully substantial lineup that reflects the strength of what our teams do for our clients and the excitement and the pride they have in doing so and having other great colleagues join them in those enterprises. We intend to maintain that commitment. And I believe we've shown that with that commitment, even if we have some muted results this year or a given quarter, this company has an extraordinarily bright future for you, the shareholder, for our clients. and the great people who join us and stay with us. I and the team look forward to sharing that with you as we go forward.

隨著時間的推移，我們已經證明，這項承諾帶來了強大的陣容，反映了我們團隊為客戶所做工作的實力，以及他們在這樣做時以及其他優秀同事加入這些企業時所感受到的興奮和自豪。我們打算堅守這項承諾。我相信，我們已經證明，憑藉這一承諾，即使我們今年或某個季度的業績不盡如人意，但對於您、股東和我們的客戶來說，這家公司的未來將異常光明。以及加入我們和與我們在一起的優秀人才。我和我的團隊期待在未來的合作中與您分享這一點。

With that, Ajay, let me turn it over to you.

說完這些，阿傑 (Ajay)，讓我把話題交給你。

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everybody. In my prepared remarks, I will take you through our company-wide and segment results and guidance for 2025. And beginning with highlights from our full year 2024 results. Revenues of $3.7 billion increased 6% compared to revenues of $3.49 billion in 2023. GAAP earnings per share of $7.81 compared to $7.71 in the prior year. Adjusted EPS of $7.99 compared to adjusted EPS of $7.71 in the prior year. The difference between our GAAP and adjusted EPS for the year reflects an $8.2 million fourth quarter special charge related to severance and other employee-related costs, which reduced GAAP EPS by $0.18.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。大家早安。在我的準備好的演講中，我將向您介紹我們整個公司和各部門的 2025 年業績和指引。首先介紹我們 2024 年全年業績的亮點。37 億美元的營收與 2023 年的 34.9 億美元收入相比成長了 6%。以美國通用會計準則計算的每股收益為 7.81 美元，去年同期為 7.71 美元。調整後每股收益為 7.99 美元，去年同期調整後每股收益為 7.71 美元。我們今年的 GAAP 和調整後 EPS 之間的差異反映了第四季度與遣散費和其他員工相關成本相關的 820 萬美元的特殊費用，這導致 GAAP EPS 減少了 0.18 美元。

Net income of $280.1 million compared to $274.9 million in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA of $403.7 million or 10.9% of revenues compared to $424.8 million or 12.2% of revenues in 2023. For the year, 6% growth in revenue was not sufficient to offset higher direct costs and SG&A expenses, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA decline compared with full year 2023.

淨收入為 2.801 億美元，而 2023 年為 2.749 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 為 4.037 億美元，佔營收的 10.9%，而 2023 年為 4.248 億美元，佔營收的 12.2%。就全年而言，6% 的收入成長不足以抵消更高的直接成本和銷售、一般及行政費用，導致調整後的 EBITDA 與 2023 年全年相比有所下降。

Despite the decline in adjusted EBITDA, net income grew primarily because of a lower tax rate and FX remeasurement gains compared with FX remeasurement losses in the prior year. In 2024, we had a tax rate of 20.2%, which compared with 23.3% in 2023. The decrease was largely due to favorable discrete tax adjustments related to equity compensation.

儘管調整後的 EBITDA 有所下降，但淨收入仍增長，主要原因是稅率較低且外匯重估收益與去年同期的外匯重估損失相比有所增加。2024 年，我們的稅率為 20.2%，而 2023 年為 23.3%。下降主要歸因於與股權補償相關的有利的單獨稅收調整。

Conversely, bad debt for the year of 1.4% of revenues was higher than our average bad debt of approximately 0.8% of revenues over the prior five years. The increase was driven in part by a $12.8 million of bad debt in the fourth quarter related to one completed matter in our economic consulting segment. Even netting these items, though, both our full year and fourth quarter 2024 results were below our expectations. Year-over-year revenue growth that was 12.4% in the first half of the year slowed to flat revenues in the second half of the year with a negative growth rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter.

相反，今年的壞帳佔收入的 1.4%，高於前五年約 0.8% 的平均壞帳。成長的部分原因是第四季與我們經濟諮詢部門的一件已完成事務有關的 1,280 萬美元壞帳。即使扣除這些項目，我們的 2024 年全年和第四季業績仍低於我們的預期。上半年營收年增12.4%，下半年則持平，第四季更是出現3.2%的負成長率。

To better align capacity with demand, we reduced headcount in Q4, resulting in a special charge of $8.2 million related to severance and other employee-related costs. These actions continued after the new year, which will result in an additional estimated special charge of approximately $17 million in Q1.

為了更好地使產能與需求保持一致，我們在第四季度減少了員工人數，導致與遣散費和其他員工相關費用相關的特別費用為 820 萬美元。這些行動在新年之後仍持續進行，這將導致第一季產生約 1700 萬美元的額外特殊費用。

Now turning to the details of the fourth quarter. Revenues of $894.9 million decreased 3.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The decrease in revenues was primarily due to lower demand in our corporate finance and restructuring and technology segments, which was partially offset by higher demand in our forensic and litigation consulting, or FLC segment. Worth noting, the fourth quarter of 2023 was an exceptional quarter. a quarter when three of our five segments, corporate finance and restructuring, economic consulting and technology delivered at the time, record quarterly revenues in what is typically our slowest quarter of the year.

現在來談談第四季的細節。營收為 8.949 億美元，與 2023 年第四季相比下降 3.2%。收入下降主要是由於我們企業財務、重組和技術部門的需求下降，但法務和訴訟諮詢或 FLC 部門的需求增加部分抵消了下降。值得注意的是，2023 年第四季是一個特別的季度。在我們當時開展業務的五個部門中，有三個部門（企業融資與重組、經濟諮詢和技術）在本季度創下了季度收入，而這通常是我們一年中業務最淡的一個季度。

In contrast, as Steve said, in Q4 2024, revenue declined both year-over-year and sequentially. Fourth quarter net income of $49.7 million compared to $81.6 million in the fourth quarter of '23. GAAP EPS of $1.38 compared to $2.28 in the prior year quarter and included the special charge, which reduced EPS by $0.18. Adjusted EPS of $1.56 compared to $2.28 in the prior year quarter. SG&A of $208.1 million was 23.2% of revenues. This compares to SG&A of $194.6 million or 21% of revenues in the fourth quarter of 2023. The year-over-year increase was primarily due to higher bad debt, outside services and travel and entertainment expenses, which was not sufficiently offset by lower variable compensation.

相較之下，正如史蒂夫所說，2024 年第四季的營收年比和季比均有所下降。第四季淨收入為 4,970 萬美元，而 23 年第四季為 8,160 萬美元。本季的 GAAP 每股收益為 1.38 美元，而去年同期的每股收益為 2.28 美元，若計入特殊費用，每股收益將減少 0.18 美元。調整後每股收益為 1.56 美元，去年同期為 2.28 美元。銷售、一般及行政費用為 2.081 億美元，佔營收的 23.2%。相較之下，2023 年第四季的銷售、一般及行政費用為 1.946 億美元，佔營收的 21%。年成長主要由於壞帳、外部服務以及差旅和娛樂費用的增加，而較低的浮動薪酬並未充分抵消這些費用。

Fourth quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $73.7 million or 8.2% of revenues compared to $127.4 million or 13.8% of revenues in Q4 of '23. Our fourth quarter effective tax rate of 16.9% compared to 20.8% in fourth quarter of '23. The lower effective tax rate was primarily due to a higher discrete tax adjustment related to equity compensation and the lower-than-expected pretax income in the quarter.

2024 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 7,370 萬美元，佔營收的 8.2%，而 23 年第四季為 1.274 億美元，佔營收的 13.8%。我們第四季的有效稅率為 16.9%，而 23 年第四季為 20.8%。較低的有效稅率主要由於與股權薪酬相關的單獨稅調整較高以及本季稅前收入低於預期。

Weighted average shares outstanding, or WASO, for Q4 of 35.9 million shares compared to 35.8 million shares in the prior year quarter. Billable headcount increased by 283 professionals or 4.5% compared to the prior year quarter, with the largest increases in FLC, technology and corporate finance and restructuring. Non-billable headcount increased by 101 professionals or 6.2%. Sequentially, billable headcount decreased by 26 professionals or 0.4% and non-billable headcount increased by 18 professionals or 1%. The sequential decrease in billable headcount was largely due to headcount actions taken in the fourth quarter, which particularly impacted our corporate finance and restructuring and FLC segments.

第四季加權平均流通股數（WASO）為 3,590 萬股，去年同期為 3,580 萬股。與去年同期相比，可計費員工數量增加了 283 名專業人員，增幅為 4.5%，其中 FLC、技術以及企業財務和重組領域的增幅最大。非計費員工數量增加了 101 名專業人員，增幅為 6.2%。與上一季相比，計費員工數量減少了 26 名專業人員，降幅為 0.4％，而非計費員工數量增加了 18 名專業人員，降幅為 1％。可計費員工人數環比下降主要是由於第四季度採取的員工人數削減行動，這對我們的企業財務和重組以及 FLC 部門產生了較大影響。

Now turning to our performance at the segment level for the fourth quarter. In corporate finance and restructuring, revenues of $335.7 million decreased 8.2% compared to Q4 of '23. The decrease in revenues was primarily due to lower demand for transformation and strategy and transaction services. In the fourth quarter, restructuring represented 47% of segment revenues. Transformation and strategy represented 31% of segment revenues and transactions represented 22% of segment revenues.

現在來談談我們第四季的分部層級的表現。在企業融資和重組方面，營收為 3.357 億美元，與 23 年第四季相比下降了 8.2%。收入下降主要是由於對轉型和策略以及交易服務的需求下降。第四季度，重組佔分部收入的47%。轉型與策略佔分部營收的 31%，交易占分部營收的 22%。

This compares to 44% for restructuring, 34% for Transformation and strategy and 22% for transactions in Q4 of '23. Adjusted segment EBITDA of $44.7 million or 13.3% of segment revenues compared to $65.4 million or 17.9% of segment revenues in the prior year quarter. The decrease was primarily due to lower revenues, which was partially offset by a decrease in contractor costs and compensation expenses.

相較之下，23年第四季，重組佔44%，轉型和策略佔34%，交易佔22%。調整後分部 EBITDA 為 4,470 萬美元，佔分部營收的 13.3%，而去年同期為 6,540 萬美元，佔分部營收的 17.9%。下降的主要原因是收入下降，但承包商成本和補償費用的下降部分抵消了下降。

Sequentially, corporate finance and restructuring revenues decreased 1.7% as 7% growth in transformation and strategy revenues was offset by a 15% decline in transactions revenues. Restructuring revenues were flat sequentially. Adjusted segment EBITDA decreased $13.2 million sequentially, primarily due to lower revenues, an increase in variable compensation and higher SG&A expenses.

與上一季相比，企業融資和重組收入下降了 1.7%，因為轉型和策略收入 7% 的成長被交易收入 15% 的下降所抵消。重組收入與上一季持平。調整後分部 EBITDA 環比減少 1,320 萬美元，主要原因是收入下降、可變薪酬增加以及銷售、一般和行政費用增加。

In FLC, fourth quarter revenues of $175.9 million increased 6.3% compared to Q4 of '23. Acquisition-related revenues contributed $2.4 million in the quarter. Excluding acquisition-related revenues, the increase in revenues was primarily due to higher demand and realized bill rates for our data and analytics and construction solutions services. Adjusted segment EBITDA of $18 million or 10.2% of segment revenues compared to $19.2 million or 11.6% of segment revenues in the prior year quarter.

FLC 第四季營收為 1.759 億美元，較 23 年第四季成長 6.3%。本季收購相關收入貢獻了 240 萬美元。除收購相關收入外，收入的成長主要歸因於對我們的數據和分析以及建築解決方案服務的需求和實現的帳單率的提高。調整後分部 EBITDA 為 1,800 萬美元，佔分部營收的 10.2%，而去年同期為 1,920 萬美元，佔分部營收的 11.6%。

The decrease was primarily due to higher compensation, which more than offset the increase in revenues. Sequentially, revenues increased 4.2%, primarily due to higher data and analytics and investigations revenues. Adjusted segment EBITDA decreased by $2 million, primarily due to an increase in variable compensation and higher SG&A expenses, which more than offset the increase in revenues.

下降的主要原因是薪酬增加，其幅度超過了收入增加。與上一季相比，收入增長了 4.2%，主要原因是數據和分析以及調查收入的增加。調整後分部 EBITDA 減少 200 萬美元，主要由於可變薪酬增加以及銷售、一般及行政開支增加，其影響超過了收入的增加。

Economic consulting's revenues of $206.1 million were flat compared to Q4 of '23 as higher merger and acquisition or M&A-related antitrust revenues were offset by lower international arbitration and non-M&A-related antitrust revenues. Adjusted segment EBITDA of $15.8 million or 7.7% of segment revenues compared to $38.3 million or 18.6% of segment revenues in the prior year quarter.

經濟諮詢業務的收入為 2.061 億美元，與 23 年第四季相比持平，因為較高的併購或與併購相關的反壟斷收入被較低的國際仲裁和非併購相關的反壟斷收入所抵消。調整後分部 EBITDA 為 1,580 萬美元，佔分部營收的 7.7%，而去年同期為 3,830 萬美元，佔分部營收的 18.6%。

The decrease was primarily due to higher bad debt, as previously discussed, and an increase in compensation compared to the prior year quarter. Sequentially, economic consulting's revenues decreased 7.2%, primarily due to lower M&A-related antitrust revenues, which were partially offset by higher financial economics revenues. Adjusted segment EBITDA decreased $19.4 million, primarily due to lower revenues and higher bad debt.

如同前面所討論的，下降主要是由於壞帳增加（以及與去年同期相比薪酬增加）。經濟諮詢收入環比下降 7.2%，主要原因是併購相關的反壟斷收入下降，但金融經濟收入增加部分抵消了這一影響。調整後部門 EBITDA 減少 1,940 萬美元，主要原因是收入下降和壞帳增加。

In Technology, revenues of $90.6 million decreased 10.2% compared to Q4 of '23. The decrease in revenues was primarily due to lower demand for M&A-related second request services. Adjusted segment EBITDA of $6.6 million or 7.2% of segment revenues compared to $12.4 million or 12.3% of segment revenues in the prior year quarter. The decrease was largely due to lower revenues, which was partially offset by a decrease in SG&A expenses. Sequentially, technology revenues decreased 17.9%, primarily due to lower M&A-related second request and litigation revenues. Adjusted segment EBITDA decreased $9.9 million, primarily due to lower revenues, which were partially offset by a decrease in contractor costs and lower SG&A expenses.

技術方面的收入為 9,060 萬美元，與 23 年第四季相比下降了 10.2%。收入下降主要是由於對併購相關的第二次請求服務的需求下降。調整後分部 EBITDA 為 660 萬美元，佔分部營收的 7.2%，而去年同期為 1,240 萬美元，佔分部營收的 12.3%。下降的主要原因是收入下降，但銷售、一般及行政開支的下降部分抵消了收入下降的影響。與上一季相比，技術收入下降了 17.9%，主要原因是與併購相關的第二次請求和訴訟收入下降。調整後分部 EBITDA 減少 990 萬美元，主要原因是收入減少，但承包商成本減少和銷售、一般及行政費用減少部分抵銷了收入減少的影響。

Of note, in the first three quarters of 2024, we saw exceptional M&A-related second request activity in our Technology segment and M&A-related antitrust work in our economic consulting segment. In contrast, in Q4, some of the large jobs that drove record M&A-related revenues in the first nine months of 2024 wound down.

值得注意的是，在 2024 年前三個季度，我們的技術部門看到了與併購相關的第二次請求活動，而我們的經濟諮詢部門看到了與併購相關的反壟斷工作。相較之下，在第四季度，推動 2024 年前 9 個月創紀錄的併購相關收入的一些大型工作已經減少。

Lastly, strategic communications revenues of $86.6 million were flat as higher demand for financial communications services were offset by lower demand for corporate reputation services. Adjusted segment EBITDA of $13.8 million or 15.9% of segment revenues compared to $15.6 million or 18% of segment revenues in the prior year quarter. This decrease was primarily due to higher SG&A expenses. Sequentially, strategic communications revenues increased 4%, primarily due to higher financial communications revenues. Adjusted segment EBITDA increased $1.7 million, primarily due to higher revenues, which were partially offset by an increase in compensation and SG&A expenses.

最後，策略溝通收入為 8,660 萬美元，持平，因為對金融溝通服務的需求增加被對企業聲譽服務的需求下降所抵消。調整後分部 EBITDA 為 1,380 萬美元，佔分部營收的 15.9%，而去年同期為 1,560 萬美元，佔分部營收的 18%。下降的主要原因是銷售、一般及行政費用增加。與上一季相比，策略通訊收入成長了 4%，這主要得益於金融通訊收入的增加。調整後分部 EBITDA 增加了 170 萬美元，主要由於收入增加，但薪酬和銷售、一般及行政費用的增加部分抵消了這一增長。

I will now discuss certain cash flow and balance sheet items. Net cash provided by operating activities of $395.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $224.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2023. The year-over-year increase in net cash provided by operating activities was primarily due to an increase in cash collections, which was partially offset by an increase in compensation, forgivable loan issuances, operating expenses and income tax payments.

我現在將討論某些現金流和資產負債表項目。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度，經營活動提供的淨現金為 3.951 億美元，截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日止年度為 2.245 億美元。營業活動淨現金年增主要是由於現金回款增加，但被補償、可免除貸款發放、營業費用和所得稅支付的增加部分抵銷。

Cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments of $660.5 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $328.7 million at December 31, 2023. We had no debt outstanding in either period. We generated free cash flow, defined as operating cash flow less capital expenditures of $360.2 million in 2024, which compares to $174.9 million in 2023. During the quarter, we repurchased 51,717 shares at an average price per share of $197.53 for a total cost of $10.2 million. As of December 31, 2024, approximately $450.4 million remained available under our stock repurchase authorization.

截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的現金和現金等價物以及短期投資為 6.605 億美元，而 2023 年 12 月 31 日為 3.287 億美元。我們在這兩個期間均沒有未償還債務。我們產生的自由現金流（定義為經營現金流減去資本支出）在 2024 年為 3.602 億美元，而 2023 年為 1.749 億美元。本季度，我們以每股 197.53 美元的平均價格回購了 51,717 股，總成本為 1,020 萬美元。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，根據我們的股票回購授權，仍有約 4.504 億美元可用。

Turning to 2025 guidance. We are, as usual, providing guidance for revenues and EPS. We estimate that revenue will range between $3.66 billion and $3.81 billion. We estimate GAAP EPS will range between $7.44 and $8.24. We estimate adjusted EPS will range between $7.80 and $8.60. The estimated $0.36 variance between EPS and adjusted EPS guidance for full year 2025 is because of the estimated special charge in the first quarter of 2025 related to the continued headcount reductions to align staffing with demand. You will notice that the midpoint of our revenue and adjusted EPS guidance reflects growth of 1% and 2.6% year-over-year, respectively.

轉向2025年指導。我們像往常一樣提供收入和每股盈餘指引。我們預計營收將在 36.6 億美元至 38.1 億美元之間。我們預計 GAAP EPS 將在 7.44 美元至 8.24 美元之間。我們預計調整後的每股盈餘將在 7.80 美元至 8.60 美元之間。 2025 年全年每股收益與調整後每股收益指引之間預計存在 0.36 美元的差異，原因在於 2025 年第一季度預計會產生特殊費用，這筆費用與持續裁員以使員工配置與需求保持一致有關。您會注意到，我們的營收和調整後的每股盈餘指引的中點分別反映了年成長 1% 和 2.6%。

Our 2025 guidance range is shaped by several considerations. First, as Steve said, though we are entering the year with an overall slow growth trajectory, our guidance is based on an increase in growth in many of our businesses over the course of the year. We expect demand to remain steady for restructuring and to see a pickup in our M&A and transformation and strategy-related businesses. We also assume a pickup in demand for our disputes and investigations-related businesses in FLC. Our expectation is based on matters where we are already engaged, investments we have made in attracting top-level talent and growing dislocation in the world, which is typically a catalyst for our services.

我們的 2025 年指導範圍是基於多種考慮制定的。首先，正如史蒂夫所說，雖然我們今年的整體成長軌跡比較緩慢，但我們的預期是基於今年多項業務的成長。我們預期重組需求將保持穩定，併購、轉型和策略相關業務將有所回升。我們也預計，FLC 的爭議和調查相關業務的需求將會回升。我們的期望是基於我們已經參與的事務、我們為吸引頂尖人才而進行的投資以及世界上日益加劇的混亂，這通常是我們提供服務的催化劑。

Second, we have taken targeted headcount actions in areas with sustained low utilization, resulting in an approximately 4% reduction in our total headcount from these actions. We expect these actions to result in cost savings of approximately $70 million in 2025. However, we also expect to continue investing in areas where we see exceptional opportunities to hire talent, which typically results in a negative adjusted EBITDA impact at least through the first year after hiring.

其次，我們在員工利用率持續較低的地區採取了有針對性的裁員行動，這些行動使我們的總員工人數減少了約4%。我們預計這些措施將在 2025 年節省約 7,000 萬美元的成本。然而，我們也預計將繼續在那些我們看到了極佳人才招募機會的領域進行投資，這通常會導致調整後 EBITDA 產生負面影響，至少在招募後的第一年是如此。

Third, for the full year, we expect SG&A expenses to be flat compared with 2024 based on a few key assumptions. We expect bad debt as a percent of revenues of below 1%. And net of settlements, we expect reduced legal expenses. Conversely, we will continue to invest, including in upgrading our HR systems and enhancing our AI capabilities.

第三，基於幾個關鍵假設，我們預計全年銷售、一般及行政開支將與 2024 年持平。我們預計壞帳佔收入的百分比將低於 1%。扣除和解金後，我們預計法律費用將會減少。相反，我們將繼續投資，包括升級我們的人力資源系統和增強我們的人工智慧能力。

Fourth, as Steve discussed, during the first quarter of 2025, we've had a number of senior departures in our US competition part of our Compass Lexecon subsidiary in our economic consulting segment, and we currently believe a number of less tenured professionals may also depart.

第四，正如史蒂夫所討論的，在 2025 年第一季度，我們經濟諮詢部門的 Compass Lexecon 子公司美國競爭部分已經有多名高級管理人員離職，目前我們認為，一些任職時間較短的專業人士也可能會離職。

We expect that the resulting increased competitive pressures may impact our ability to attract and retain clients and will increase compensation costs to retain staff in the segment. While the precise impact of these developments remains uncertain, we expect these factors will result in substantially reduced revenue and erosion of adjusted segment EBITDA margin in economic consulting compared to 2024. Fifth, we expect our effective tax rate for 2025 to be between 23% and 25%.

我們預計，由此產生的競爭壓力可能會影響我們吸引和留住客戶的能力，並將增加留住該領域員工的薪資成本。雖然這些事態發展的具體影響仍不確定，但我們預計，與 2024 年相比，這些因素將導致經濟諮詢業務的收入大幅減少，並侵蝕調整後的分部 EBITDA 利潤率。第五，我們預計2025年的有效稅率在23%至25%之間。

As I mentioned, our assumptions define a midpoint, and we provide a range of guidance around such midpoint, which I characterize as our current best judgment. Often, we find actual results are outside of such range because ours is largely a fixed cost business in the short term and small variations in revenue may have an outsized impact on earnings.

正如我所提到的，我們的假設定義了一個中點，並且我們圍繞著這個中點提供了一系列指導，我將其描述為我們當前的最佳判斷。我們經常發現實際結果超出此範圍，因為我們的業務在短期內基本上是固定成本，收入的微小變化可能會對收益產生巨大影響。

Before I close, I want to emphasize a few key themes that I believe underscore the attractiveness of our company. First, we have a deep bench of experts that are helping clients navigate through exceptionally volatile times globally.

在結束之前，我想強調幾個我認為凸顯我們公司吸引力的關鍵主題。首先，我們擁有一群優秀的專家，幫助客戶度過全球異常動盪的時期。

Second, we are attracting top talent in areas, including transformation and strategy, transactions, risk and investigations, construction solutions and corporate reputation and in geographies such as Australia, Germany, Spain and France. Third, our management team is focused on both growth and utilization. And finally, we have an enviable balance sheet that provides us the flexibility to boost shareholder value through organic growth, share buybacks and acquisitions when we see the right ones.

其次，我們正在吸引轉型與策略、交易、風險與調查、建築解決方案和企業聲譽等領域的頂尖人才，以及來自澳洲、德國、西班牙和法國等地區的頂尖人才。第三，我們的管理團隊既注重成長，也注重利用。最後，我們擁有令人羨慕的資產負債表，這使我們能夠靈活地透過有機成長、股票回購和收購來提高股東價值（當我們看到合適的機會時）。

With that, let's open the call up for your questions.

現在，我們可以開始回答大家的問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

安德魯尼古拉斯、威廉布萊爾。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to start on the economic consulting outlook. Steve, you provided pointed us to the 2014 year as a potential outsized impact or a reference point, I think you said $35 million. I'm just curious in terms of the guidance, is that similar to what you have embedded in the 2025 outlook?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我想從經濟諮詢前景開始談一談。史蒂夫，你指出 2014 年可能產生巨大影響，或者作為一個參考點，我記得你說的是 3500 萬美元。我只是好奇，對於指導而言，它是否與您在 2025 年展望中所嵌入的內容類似？

And then relatedly, if you could talk about the potential impact from these actions or current developments on '26 and kind of how this could potentially bleed into next year, if at all?

然後，相關地，您能否談談這些行動或當前發展對 26 年可能產生的影響，以及這些影響是否可能延續到明年？

Yeah. Look, as I said -- thanks, Andrew. Look, I think it's very early days. The reason I use the $35 million number is to give you a dimensionalize because if we had said substantial, sometimes we have accountants, good accountants who think $350,000 is substantial and $3.5 million is substantial and $35 million is substantial. And I just want to give people an order of magnitude of what I thought this could be, and that was the comparability point, and it just happened to be interestingly a comparable number. But there's a huge amount of uncertainty around this number.

是的。瞧，正如我所說 - 謝謝，安德魯。瞧，我認為現在還為時過早。我使用 3500 萬美元這個數字是為了給你一個維度，因為如果我們說相當可觀，有時我們會有會計師，優秀的會計師認為 35 萬美元是相當可觀的，350 萬美元是相當可觀的，350 萬美元也是相當可觀的。我只是想告訴大家我認為這個數字可能是什麼數量級，這就是可比點，有趣的是，它恰好是一個可比較的數字。但這個數字存在著很大的不確定性。

It's really early stages. And how that number shows up, even if it was close, could be very different ways. We attract a lot of people, it could be in the cost of signing those people. If we lose people, it's the revenue you drop. And so obviously, we threw that number out and we built in some sort of number akin to that.

現在還處於早期階段。而且這個數字的出現方式即使很接近，也可能非常不同。我們吸引了很多人，簽下這些人的成本可能會增加。如果我們失去員工，收入就會減少。顯然，我們拋棄了那個數字，並建立了類似的某種數字。

But we also, as Ajay always points out, have a range around our numbers to try to account for some of the variability around it. But yes, we didn't throw out a $35 million number and build $3 million into our budget for this year into what we're giving you as guidance. Does that help a little bit, Andrew?

但正如阿傑一直指出的那樣，我們也對我們的數字設定了一個範圍，試圖解釋其中的一些變化。但是的，我們並沒有提出 3500 萬美元的數字，而是將今年的預算中的 300 萬美元納入我們給您的指導中。這有一點幫助嗎，安德魯？

Yes, that's helpful. I guess I think there was a comment about it potentially impacting the start of '26 too. Could you touch on just maybe how that happens? Is it people that would potentially be leaving over the next couple of months and sticking around through the beginning of next year to finish off projects? Or just trying to figure out how much is isolated to '25 and if '26 can be a rebound year, all else considered.

是的，這很有幫助。我想有一條評論說它可能也會對 26 年的開始產生影響。您能否談談這是如何發生的？這些人是否可能會在接下來的幾個月內離開，並留下來直到明年年初完成專案？或者只是想弄清楚有多少與 25 年有關，以及 26 年是否可以成為反彈年，其他一切都已考慮在內。

Look, it's too early to say. I think the reason we put that in there is because if people finish up work and then they leave later, then some of the effect wouldn't be seen in the earlier quarters this year, and it would show up in the beginning of next year. If people leave earlier and it starts hitting right away, then you would be cycling it a year from now. It's so early days that we don't know. And therefore, we're just throwing that in. I think our current belief is that this is moving faster than -- more than slower, but we're trying to reflect some of the uncertainty here. Does that help?

瞧，現在說還太早。我認為我們把這一點放在那裡的原因是，如果人們完成工作然後晚點離開，那麼部分影響將在今年前幾季不會顯現，而會在明年年初顯現出來。如果人們提早離開並且它馬上就開始流行，那麼一年後你就會開始使用它。現在還為時過早，我們還不知道。因此，我們只是把它扔進去。我認為我們目前的看法是，這一進程正在加快，而不是減慢，但我們正試圖反映這裡的一些不確定性。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yes, that's helpful. And then maybe just taking a step back on overall headcount growth plans in '25. There's a lot of moving pieces here between the Lexecon headwinds. You have recent headcount actions, but you've also announced a ton of senior level hiring over the past several months. Is there any way to frame how you're thinking about headcount growth in '25 and maybe some of the puts and takes on how that develops throughout the year?

是的，這很有幫助。然後也許只是在25年的整體員工人數成長計畫上退後一步。Lexecon 逆風中存在著許多變動因素。您最近採取了人員編制調整措施，但過去幾個月您也宣布招募大量高階職位。有沒有辦法可以概括您對 25 年員工人數成長的看法，以及對全年員工人數發展的一些看法？

Yes, Let me maybe take a crack at that, and then I'll let Ajay decide whether he's going to be more quantitative. I'm glad you raised this.

是的，也許讓我嘗試一下，然後我會讓阿傑決定是否要更加量化。我很高興你提出這個問題。

Look, the reason we highlighted some of these headwinds is because they're significant and they add up to a lot. We are still a company that is focused on growth, and we have a right to be focused on growth. Even in our e-com practice, which is having a setback, we have a fabulous group of people in EMEA. We have a fabulous group staying in this subsegment in the US We have a great group based out of Chicago. I mean -- so we have lots of growth opportunities.

我們之所以強調這些不利因素，是因為它們非常重要，而且累積起來影響很大。我們仍然是一家專注於成長的公司，我們也有權利專注於成長。即使我們的電子商務業務遇到了挫折，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區仍然擁有一群出色的人才。我們有一個很棒的團隊駐紮在美國的這個細分市場，我們在芝加哥還有一個很棒的團隊。我的意思是——我們有很多成長機會。

So I suspect we will hire many more senior people than we will lose this year. We've had dislocations at different points in the time. I can't remember a time in recent years that we haven't hired some years, it's many more senior people than we've lost a few years it's closer. So we do anticipate headcount growth even with some departures.

因此我預計，我們今年聘用的高級人才將比流失的多得多。我們在不同時期都曾遭遇過混亂。我不記得最近幾年我們沒有招募過員工，有些年份我們招募的高階人才比我們流失的要多得多，有些年份我們流失的高階人才更接近流失的年齡。因此，即使有些人離職，我們確實預期員工人數仍會增加。

I think for many of our businesses, a lot of that comes in the second half of the year just because of the natural hiring cycles. And I don't know whether we get more detail than that. But we have not turned into a -- and notwithstanding the disciplined actions we took or Compass down, we were expecting growth in headcount. Does that -- and because we are a growth company, even if you have setbacks, it's painful, but these are setbacks as opposed to fundamentally changing the fundamentals. Does that help, Andrew?

我認為對於我們的許多企業來說，許多招募都是在下半年發生的，這只是因為自然的招募週期。我不知道我們是否可以獲得比這更詳細的資訊。但我們並沒有變成——儘管我們採取了有紀律的行動或關閉了Compass，但我們仍預計員工人數會增加。因為我們是一家成長型公司，所以即使遇到挫折，也會感到痛苦，但這些都是挫折，而不是從根本上改變基本面。這有幫助嗎，安德魯？

Definitely. And maybe if I could just squeeze one more in on the M&A side. I mean it sounds like there were some headwinds on, on some projects falling off in the fourth quarter, but there is some optimism for that to pick up as the year continues. Can you just speak to M&A trends as a whole? And maybe any color on kind of large-scale M&A versus middle market M&A from what you're seeing in your businesses?

確實。也許我可以在併購方面再擠出一點時間。我的意思是，聽起來好像在第四季度出現了一些阻力，一些項目停止了，但隨著今年的繼續，人們樂觀地認為這種情況會有所改善。您能就整體情況談談併購趨勢嗎？從您在業務中看到的情況來看，大規模併購與中型市場併購有何不同？

Look, I think there's a lot of uncertainty about anything that has to do with potential government policies, right? I think the general thrust is that people expect M&A to pick up. And then the question is, of course, antitrust scrutiny on those. But Ajay, do you want to elaborate on that?

看，我認為與潛在政府政策有關的任何事情都存在很多不確定性，對嗎？我認為整體趨勢是人們預期併購活動將會回升。當然，問題在於對這些進行反壟斷審查。但是阿傑，你想詳細說明一下嗎？

And we are seeing some of it is all I would say at this stage.

目前我想說的是我們已經看到了其中的一些。

Does that help, Andrew?

這有幫助嗎，安德魯？

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Tobey Sommer, Truist.

托比·索默 (Tobey Sommer)，Truist。

Thanks. Within the competition practice, is there any particular industry vertical that's being impacted more than another? Or is it just sort of a subset of people across different industries? And what does -- if you could give us your pitch for sort of the network effect of perhaps having the other segments residents in FTI that you would convey to an economist you're recruiting?

謝謝。在競爭實踐中，是否有某個特定的垂直產業受到的影響比其他產業更大？或者它只是不同行業的一小部分人？那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下讓其他細分市場居民加入 FTI 的網路效應，您會將這種效應傳達給您所招募的經濟學家嗎？

Okay. There were two different levels of questions. So the first one was, no, I don't think there's particular industries. I mean this is -- this is driven by an individual, and I think the common thread between the people who he's been able to recruit his relationship with those individuals, I think, is the main common thread is what I would say.

好的。有兩個不同層次的問題。所以第一個問題是，不，我認為沒有特定的行業。我的意思是，這是由個人推動的，我認為他能夠招募的人與這些人之間的共同點，我認為，主要的共同點就是我想說的話。

And let me be clear, we have -- though this is a hit, it's a sign of how strong our Compass Lexecon business is, is that the people who are not leaving are just a fabulous group of people. So I still think we cover, as far as I know right now, industries and we have the leading IO -- I think Carl is the leading IO economist in the world or at least in the US and Jargen and his colleagues in Europe and so forth. So this is a hit. It's a hit a slice that's been taken out, and I think the common theme is some personal connections.

讓我明確一點，儘管這是一個打擊，但它表明了我們的 Compass Lexecon 業務有多強大，沒有離開的人都是一群非常出色的人。因此，就我目前所知，我仍然認為我們涵蓋了各個行業，並且我們擁有領先的工業界——我認為卡爾是世界上或至少在美國領先的工業界經濟學家，還有賈根和他的同事在歐洲等等。因此，這是一個成功案例。這是一部熱門作品，我認為其共同主題是一些個人關係。

Look, I think the reason economists join us is a couple of different things. One is just a terrific group of people it has working behind them who can help them become more effective. And we hire PhD students, A-plus PhD students who don't want to become academics, and they get trained in what is required to do antitrust clearance. And it used to be that the academics relied on their graduate students. And as having had a son who is a graduate student, I love my son, but performance can be variable. Once you get them in and you train them, they become incredibly effective.

你看，我認為經濟學家加入我們的原因有幾個。一是他們背後有一群出色的人，可以幫助他們提高效率。我們招募博士生，那些不想成為學者的優秀博士生，並讓他們接受反壟斷審查所需的培訓。過去，學術界一直依賴他們的研究生。我有一個讀研究所的兒子，我很愛我的兒子，但他的表現可能會有所不同。一旦你招募他們並對他們進行培訓，他們就會變得非常有效率。

The other thing that Compass Lexecon has distinguished itself on is really having rigorous academics who -- these are folks who -- the origins of this are people who are scholars who really dove deep into figuring out what's really going on and therefore, wrote insightful pieces. And many of them originally weren't so good testifiers because they knew how to explain it in math symbols that didn't actually work for judges and juries, and they had to learn how to talk to a jury. But these were rigorous scholars who brought that discipline and insight to complex problems. And that's the origins of Compass Lexecon. And that's why we recruit people.

Compass Lexecon 的另一個獨特之處在於它擁有嚴謹的學術團隊，他們都是深入研究真正發生的事情並因此撰寫出富有洞察力的文章的學者。而且他們中的許多人最初並不是很好的證人，因為他們知道如何用數學符號來解釋，而這對法官和陪審團來說實際上不起作用，他們必須學會如何與陪審團交談。但這些都是嚴謹的學者，他們將紀律和洞察力運用到複雜問題中。這就是 Compass Lexecon 的起源。這就是我們招募人才的原因。

And so Dan Pichel has historically not recently been focused on the competition in the US Dan, because of these developments over the last few weeks has started to recruit people in this area. And we have -- I think we signed up in the last month, five academic affiliates, maybe only a few of them Mollie has been mentioning -- waving at me, only a few of them are on the website. But terrific academics respect the rigor and discipline and integrity of Compass Lexecon. And so when we approach the right people, Dan does, we get receptive audiences. Does that help, Tobey?

因此，丹·皮切爾 (Dan Pichel) 過去一直沒有關注美國的競爭，由於過去幾週的這些發展，丹已經開始在該領域招募人才。而且我們有 — — 我想我們上個月簽約了五個學術附屬機構，也許只有其中幾個是莫莉提到的 — — 向我揮手的，他們中只有幾個在網站上。但是優秀的學者尊重 Compass Lexecon 的嚴謹性、紀律和完整性。所以，當我們接觸到對的人時，丹就會得到接受的觀眾。這有幫助嗎，托比？

Thank you. It does. And I was curious if you could comment on the puts and takes of the administration change on various end markets. I know it's a fluid situation and it's early days, but maybe you have some observations already you could share with us.

謝謝。是的。我很好奇您是否可以評論政府變動對各個終端市場的影響。我知道情況很不穩定而且還為時過早，但也許您已經有一些觀察可以與我們分享。

I think if we have another four hours, we could go through that, and you still probably wouldn't know for sure at the end of the four hours is my problem, Tobey. Obviously, we're looking at it hard.

我想如果我們再有四個小時，我們就可以解決這個問題，但四個小時結束後你可能仍然無法確定，這是我的問題是，托比。顯然，我們正在認真研究這個問題。

Look, I think over any extended period of time, my experience is people over -- use my wife's mid and best term, peg out about administration changes. if you have the right set of people, there is a need and you have to shift with the market, but it doesn't affect any multiyear growth thing.

看，我認為在任何較長的一段時間內，我的經驗是人們會——利用我妻子的中期和最佳任期，了解政府的變化。如果你擁有合適的人才，就有需求，你必須隨著市場而變化，但這不會影響任何多年的成長。

Can a near-term regulation change affect a subpart of our business significantly in the near time? It can be. And so you monitor those things and you have to figure out how you shift resources and deal with it. And so we're deep into that. But like most people right now, we're actually -- that's a third order consequence of regulations when the regulations aren't yet fully implemented, how deep they are cascading the specifics around them aren't and there's changes going on right now. So we're into it.

近期的監管變化是否會在短期內對我們的部分業務產生重大影響？可以。因此，你要監控這些事情，並且你必須弄清楚如何轉移資源並處理它。所以我們對此進行了深入研究。但就像現在的大多數人一樣，我們實際上——這是法規的第三級後果，當法規尚未完全實施時，它們的影響有多深，周圍的具體細節還不清楚，而且現在正在改變。所以我們對此很感興趣。

But for me to predict exactly how that's going to be on this call, I think, is premature at this point. It's a great question, and we are focused on it. And as we have great wisdom on that, I suspect we will share it, but that's not where we are today. Does that -- does that at least talk to your question?

但我認為，現在就預測這次電話會議的具體情況還為時過早。這是一個很好的問題，我們正在重點關注它。由於我們在這方面擁有豐富的智慧，我想我們會分享它，但這不是我們今天的狀況。這至少回答你的問題了嗎？

It does. I wanted to ask one model question, if I could. Within the revenue guidance, what sort of assumption may there be embedded for headcount growth -- billable headcount growth in 2025?

是的。如果可以的話，我想問一個典型問題。在收入指引中，對於員工人數成長──2025 年可計費員工人數成長──可能包含什麼樣的假設？

Tobey, we do expect headcount growth in 2025, but we have headcount reductions of 360 folks between Q4 and Q1. We are aggressively hiring talented folks as they become available. We have the campus recruitment net and then the Compass Lexecon competition piece you heard about. Net of all that, we do expect reasonable headcount growth.

托比，我們確實預計 2025 年員工人數會增加，但我們在第四季和第一季之間裁減了 360 人。我們正在積極聘用有才華的人才。我們有校園招募網，還有您聽過的Compass Lexecon 競賽作品。綜合考慮這些因素，我們確實預期員工數量會合理成長。

Thank you, Toby.

謝謝你，托比。

Thank you.

謝謝。

James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的詹姆斯·亞羅 (James Yaro)。

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. last quarter, you talked about a more challenging demand backdrop for consulting services broadly. I think your comments suggested that persists. But we're three months further in, any high-level comments you could offer on that in terms of which products and geographies you're seeing that?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。上個季度，您廣泛談到了諮詢服務面臨的更具挑戰性的需求背景。我認為您的評論表明這種情況仍然存在。但我們已經過去了三個月，您能就您在哪些產品和地區看到這種情況提出任何高層評論嗎？

And perhaps any additional color you might have on what the drivers are there? And then I guess, finally, any early signs of that improving at all?

或許您對那裡的驅動程式還有其他了解嗎？然後我想，最後，有沒有什麼早期跡象表明情況有所改善？

Yes. Look, I think it's -- as I tried to allude to a little bit on my script, I think it's a combination of market forces. There have been some idiosyncratic forces like I think our strategy practice happened to have a bunch of jobs roll off, and we haven't yet got them back, and that's more idiosyncratic to us. But there are different types of market forces that affected us. Our transactions practices were -- and M&A practices were slower in the fourth quarter. We think that was a market force.

是的。看，我認為這是——正如我試圖在我的劇本中提到的那樣，我認為這是多種市場力量的結合。存在一些特殊的力量，例如我認為我們的策略實踐恰好有大量的工作流失，而我們還沒有把它們找回來，這對我們來說比較特殊。但不同類型的市場力量對我們產生了影響。我們的交易實務－以及第四季的併購實務都較為緩慢。我們認為這是市場力量。

There are some economic forces. I mean we've expanded a lot in different economies in EMEA. I'd say we've expanded our services in the UK And I think most, most professional services firms, all the data I've seen has had a slow year in the UK for almost all of their services. So we have some market forces I'm not sure we have some sense that some of these will turn around in this year. I mean I don't think we think that the M&A market will stay slow, and I think there's some early signs of green shoots on that.

有一些經濟力量。我的意思是我們已經在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的不同經濟體中實現了大幅擴張。我想說的是，我們已經擴大了在英國的服務，而且我認為，大多數專業服務公司，根據我所看到的所有數據，今年在英國的幾乎所有服務都表現平淡。因此，我們有一些市場力量，但我不確定我們是否感覺到其中一些力量會在今年出現轉變。我的意思是，我不認為併購市場會保持低迷，而且我認為這方面已經出現了一些復甦的早期跡象。

My sense is that I've hesitated to over talk about market forces because my experience is that they do have short-term effects. But if you are the leading firm, you tend to outperform the markets. And so that's what I like us to focus on. And so I think our leaders believe we're going to have growth in our businesses, not just because market forces come back, but because we're doing the right things in their business and because we're attracting great talent.

我的感覺是，我一直猶豫是否要多談市場力量，因為我的經驗是它們確實會產生短期影響。但如果你是一家領先的公司，你的表現往往會優於市場。這就是我希望我們關注的重點。因此，我認為我們的領導者相信我們的業務將實現成長，這不僅是因為市場力量的回歸，還因為我們在業務中採取了正確的做法，而且我們也吸引了優秀人才。

So we are not expecting the negative fourth quarter growth to be persisting through this year for -- I mean, I think we have solid growth forecast for every one of their businesses, except for the one that's affected by the Compass dislocations for everyone, notwithstanding what we think the market forces are. And I think that's reflecting of the power and the confidence we have in our businesses.

因此，我們預計第四季度的負成長不會持續到今年年底——我的意思是，我認為我們對他們的每項業務都有穩健的成長預測，除了受到 Compass 錯位影響的業務，不管我們認為的市場力量如何。我認為這反映了我們對業務的實力和信心。

So we're hoping for some market tailwinds in addition. But right now, we're actually making the solid growth forecast based on what we believe we can do. Does that help, James?

因此，我們也希望獲得一些額外的市場順風。但現在，我們實際上是根據我們認為我們能夠做的事情做出了穩健的成長預測。這有幫助嗎，詹姆斯？

Super helpful, Steve. Maybe just on the F&LC business, you talked about a pickup in demand for disputes and investigations. Any additional color you could provide there in terms of what gives you the confidence across product and geography?

非常有幫助，史蒂夫。也許僅在金融和信用保險業務方面，您談到了糾紛和調查需求的增加。您能否提供一些其他信息，說明是什麼讓您對產品和地理充滿信心？

Look, I think we have, over the last few years, just the US, particularly the US team has just come into its own. And we have a great group of leaders in that practice. And the practice always had great talent. I think we have some leaders who are a little more commercial, too, because you can have great people who are focused on doing a good job, but occasionally, you have to tell the clients that you're doing a good job. And I think as a result, our US practice is -- just keeps winning bigger and bigger jobs. And the market sometimes despite ourselves gets to know that even though many of those jobs are actually very confidential.

看看，我認為，在過去的幾年裡，美國，特別是美國隊已經成長。我們在該領域擁有一批出色的領導者。並且實踐中總是有偉大的人才。我認為我們的一些領導者也更加商業化，因為你可以擁有專注於做好工作的優秀人才，但偶爾，你必須告訴客戶你做得很好。我認為結果是，我們在美國的做法就是不斷贏得越來越多的工作。儘管許多工作其實是非常機密的，但市場有時還是會不由自主地知道這一點。

I think we've also got the right places where we're investing abroad. Some places abroad, we don't have the breadth of capability, but we have really good people who are more focused investing behind. And so I feel pretty good about that business. Now that is a business that -- some would say could be affected by regulatory changes in the US, and we'll see. But I think what I focus on is the capability of our teams. And I got to tell you, I've never been as excited about that business as I am today. Does that help, James?

我認為我們在海外投資的地點也是正確的。在國外的一些地方，我們不具備廣泛的能力，但我們擁有非常優秀的人才，他們更專注於在背後進行投資。所以我對於這項業務感覺非常良好。有些人可能會說，這項業務可能會受到美國監管變化的影響，我們拭目以待。但我認為我關注的是我們團隊的能力。我得告訴你，我從來沒有像今天這樣對這項事業感到興奮。這有幫助嗎，詹姆斯？

That's super helpful. Last one, just on econ consulting, just more in the weeds one. Did any of the departures affect the fourth quarter revenue for econ consulting? Or is that all on the come in the 2025 guide?

這非常有幫助。最後一個，只是關於經濟諮詢，只是比較詳細。這些離職人員是否對經濟諮詢公司第四季的收入產生了影響？或者這一切都將在 2025 年指南中出現？

A number of departures affected the fourth quarter and none of them then to my knowledge has happened. They are all first quarter departures.

有些人的離職對第四季產生了影響，但據我所知，目前還沒有發生這樣的事情。他們都在第一季離職了。

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

好的，太好了。多謝。

All right. Listen, thank you all for your support over the time. This is the most muted guidance we've ever given. It's because there's a ton of headwinds we're here. None of that challenges the fundamental strength that I think we've created in this company, and we look forward to getting back on that track through the year and into next year. But we'll keep you informed on how we do that. Thanks very much for your time.

好的。聽著，感謝大家一直以來的支持。這是我們給過的最溫和的指導。這是因為我們在這裡面臨著巨大的阻力。我認為，這些都不會對我們為公司創造的根本優勢構成挑戰，我們期待在今年和明年重回正軌。但我們會隨時向您通報我們的行動情況。非常感謝您抽出時間。

Thanks very much for your time. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

非常感謝您抽出時間。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。