First BanCorp (FBP) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello and welcome to the First BanCorp 3rd quarter 2025 financial results. My name is Carla and I will be coordinating your call today. (operator instructions). I would now like to hand you over to the investor relations officer Ramon Rodriguez to begin. Please go ahead when you're ready.

    您好,歡迎閱讀 First BanCorp 2025 年第三季財務表現。我叫卡拉,今天我將負責協調您的通話。(操作員指令)。現在我想把時間交給投資者關係官 Ramon Rodriguez。準備好後請繼續。

  • Ramon Rodriguez - Senior Vice President Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations

    Ramon Rodriguez - Senior Vice President Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Carla. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining First Bank Corp's conference call and webcast to discuss the company's financial results for the 3rd quarter of 2025. Joining you today from First Bank Corp are Aurelio Aleman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Orlando Berges-González, executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝你,卡拉。大家早安,感謝您參加第一銀行公司的電話會議和網路廣播,討論公司 2025 年第三季的財務業績。今天與大家一起出席的還有第一銀行公司的總裁兼執行長 Aurelio Aleman 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Orlando Berges-González。

  • Before we begin today's call, it is my responsibility to inform you that this call may involve certain forward-looking statements such as projections of revenue, earnings, and capital structure, as well as statements on the plans and objectives of the company's business. The company's actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking statements made due to the important factors described in the company's latest SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call. If anyone does not already have a copy of the webcast presentation or press release, you can access them at our website at www.fbpinvestor.com.

    在我們開始今天的電話會議之前,我有責任通知您,本次電話會議可能涉及某些前瞻性陳述,例如收入、收益和資本結構的預測,以及有關公司業務計劃和目標的陳述。由於公司最新提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的重要因素,公司的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。本公司不承擔更新電話會議期間所作任何前瞻性陳述的義務。如果有人還沒有網路廣播簡報或新聞稿的副本,您可以透過我們的網站 www.fbpinvestor.com 存取。

  • At this time I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO Aurelio Aleman,

    現在我想把電話轉給我們的執行長奧雷利奧·阿萊曼,

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Ramon, and good morning to everyone, and thanks for joining our call again today. I will begin by briefly discussing our financial performance for the 3rd quarter, then move on to discuss our outlook for the franchise.

    謝謝你,拉蒙,大家早安,謝謝你們今天再次參加我們的電話會議。我將首先簡要討論我們第三季的財務業績,然後繼續討論我們對特許經營的展望。

  • We're definitely very pleased with the progress on the quarter as we deliver another exceptional quarter of financial results that underscore our ability to produce consistent returns to our shareholders.

    我們對本季的進展感到非常滿意,因為我們又取得了一個出色的季度財務業績,這突顯了我們為股東創造持續回報的能力。

  • And consistent progress in our franchise metrics. We earn $100 million in net income during the quarter, including the benefit of certain non-recurrent special items that Orlando will explain later. However, adjusted for these items, normalized earnings per share grew 13% when compared to the prior year.

    我們的特許經營指標也在持續進步。我們在本季獲得了 1 億美元的淨收入,其中包括奧蘭多稍後將解釋的某些非經常性特殊項目的收益。然而,經過這些項目調整後,每股盈餘與前一年相比成長了 13%。

  • Most of the improvement came from record net interest income a well-managed expense base, and discipline loan production.

    大部分改善來自創紀錄的淨利息收入、管理良好的支出基礎以及紀律嚴明的貸款生產。

  • Turning to the balance sheet, our strong capital position enable us to continue supporting our clients on the, on the loan production side, we grew to loan 50 $181 million or 5.6% in quarter annualized, surpassing $13 billion in total loan for the first time since 2010.

    談到資產負債表,我們強大的資本狀況使我們能夠繼續為客戶提供支持,在貸款生產方面,我們的貸款增長至 50 1.81 億美元,即季度年化增長率為 5.6%,自 2010 年以來貸款總額首次超過 130 億美元。

  • Since the beginning of the second quarter, we do, we've been experiencing slowdown in consumer credit demand. Especially, I want to comment on the auto industry, which has been, below our original expectation for the year.

    自第二季初以來,我們確實經歷了消費信貸需求的放緩。我特別想評論一下汽車產業,今年的表現低於我們最初的預期。

  • After the sector specific ties were announced in April, industry-wide sales began trading down, which has impacted overall long origination in this space within the year and long mix production. For some additional context, total retail sales in our industry are down 7% year today as of September. But when looking at the third quarter sales, they are below 17% compared to the third quarter of the prior year.

    自 4 月宣布與特定行業建立聯繫以來,全行業的銷售額開始下降,這對該領域今年的整體長材發起量和長材混合產量產生了影響。進一步說明一下,截至 9 月份,我們產業的總零售額年減了 7%。但從第三季的銷售額來看,與去年同期相比,下降了 17%。

  • Thankfully, we've been able to mitigate this slowdown by securing a grow plan within the commercial and construction and the segment coupled with a steady on production progress in the residential mortgage business. It's about business diversification and regional diversification contributing to that.

    值得慶幸的是,我們透過確保商業和建築領域的成長計劃以及住宅抵押貸款業務的穩定生產進展,已經能夠緩解這種放緩。這是業務多元化和區域多元化促成的。

  • In terms of deposit, it was a good quarter. We grew 140 million on core franchise deposits. Trends in the market, flows remain favorable. Although we're seeing, higher competition, in you see flows, we believe that could be temporary, particularly from affluent customers and government relations. That said, we continue to focus on what is our core deposit franchise while deploying a measured approach to retaining valuable cost core customers' relationships.

    從存款方面來看,這是一個好的季度。我們的核心特許存款增加了 1.4 億。市場趨勢、流量依然良好。儘管我們看到競爭加劇,但我們認為這可能是暫時的,特別是來自富裕客戶和政府關係的競爭。也就是說,我們將繼續專注於我們的核心存款特許經營權,同時採取審慎的方法來保留寶貴的成本核心客戶關係。

  • In terms of asset quality, credit continues to behave in line with expectations, consumer charge of stabilizing, healthy commercial credit trends, and a 7% reduction in non-performing assets.

    資產品質方面,信貸持續表現符合預期,消費支出趨於穩定,商業信貸趨勢健康,不良資產減少7%。

  • Finally, our, any performance related to growth across all capital ratios while expanding our lumber organically and being able to repurchase another 50 million shares of Commons. Consistent with the strategy of returning 100% annual earning to shareholders, as we announced yesterday, our board authorized an additional $200 million share buyback program that we expect to execute through 2026.

    最後,我們的任何業績都與所有資本比率的成長有關,同時有機地擴大我們的木材產量並能夠回購另外 5,000 萬股 Commons 股票。正如我們昨天宣布的,按照向股東返還 100% 年收益的策略,董事會批准了一項額外的 2 億美元股票回購計劃,預計該計劃將執行到 2026 年。

  • Please let's move to slide 5 for some highlights on the macro.

    請翻到投影片 5,了解宏觀的一些亮點。

  • In terms of the macro, the operating background remains, I have to say stable with, on certain elements that are surrounding us as we continue to monitor and assess the potential impact that evolving trade dynamics are bringing to the market. Any potential impact of federal government shutdown that is related inflationary pressures are having pressure on businesses and consumers across our regions.

    從宏觀角度來看,隨著我們繼續監測和評估不斷變化的貿易動態對市場帶來的潛在影響,我不得不說,在我們周圍某些因素的影響下,經營背景仍然保持穩定。聯邦政府關門帶來的任何潛在影響,即相關的通膨壓力,都會對我們各地區的企業和消費者造成壓力。

  • As everybody's realizing that said, We are encouraged by the resiliency of the labor markets in Puerto Rico. They continue improving trend of the tourism activity, and the resilient announced investments of manufacturing companies, expanding production capacity in Puerto Rico, or establishing new facilities.

    正如每個人都意識到的那樣,波多黎各勞動市場的彈性令我們感到鼓舞。旅遊活動的趨勢持續改善,製造公司宣布的投資也保持強勁,擴大了波多黎各的生產能力,或建立了新的設施。

  • We believe, that the ongoing expansion of the manufacturing sector coupled with the consistent flow of federal disaster funds. A earmark for infrastructure will continue to support local economy for the years to come.

    我們相信,製造業的持續擴張加上聯邦災難基金的持續流入。基礎設施專項撥款將在未來幾年繼續支持當地經濟。

  • Our franchise is in a great position to benefit from the tailwinds, and we expect to strategically deploy ours capital to continue growing organically, our regions. Year to date, total loan originations auto credit card regulation activity are all by 7% when compared to prior year.

    我們的特許經營處於有利地位,可以從順風中受益,我們希望策略性地部署我們的資本,以繼續有機地發展我們的地區。今年迄今為止,汽車信用卡監管活動的貸款發放總額與去年同期相比增加了 7%。

  • Be supported by, self-discipline, client outreach, well managed regional and business line diversification, which is really, the strength of our franchise.

    透過自律、客戶拓展、管理良好的區域和業務線多樣化,這才是我們特許經營的優勢。

  • Based on current commercial lending pipelines, the evolving rate environment, and the ongoing normalization of industry-wide auto sales, our loan growth guide for the year will probably be closer to the 34% range, depending on commercial credit line uses and any level of unexpected payments that we don't have knowledge today.

    根據目前的商業貸款管道、不斷變化的利率環境以及全行業汽車銷售的持續正常化,我們今年的貸款成長指南可能接近 34% 的範圍,具體取決於商業信貸額度的使用情況以及我們今天不知道的任何意外付款水平。

  • We will provide, an updated guide on our, on 2026, once we report out for four quarter in January, and also, full year that a full year forecast for next year. With that, I would like to thank you for your interesting First Bank.

    一旦我們在一月份發布第四季度報告,我們將提供 2026 年的最新指南,同時也將提供明年全年的預測。最後,我要感謝您對第一銀行的關注。

  • I'm definitely very proud of our team's accomplishments to 2025. I look forward to a strong end of the year. And now I will turn the call to Orlando to go over financial results in more detail before we open the call for questions. Orlando.

    我對我們團隊在 2025 年所取得的成就感到非常自豪。我期待今年有個強勁的結束。現在,在我們開始提問之前,我將把電話轉給奧蘭多,讓他更詳細地討論一下財務結果。奧蘭多。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. As Aurelio mentioned, we had a strong quarter with the net income, reaching $100 million or $0.63 a share. That compares to $80 million or $0.50 a share in the second quarter.

    嘿,大家早安。正如 Aurelio 所提到的,我們本季業績強勁,淨收入達到 1 億美元,即每股 0.63 美元。相比之下,第二季的利潤為 8,000 萬美元,即每股 0.50 美元。

  • Return on average assets for the quarter was 2.1%. much higher than last quarter. This quarter did include a few things that I'm going to touch up on. We had a $16.6 million reversal of evaluation allowance on deferred tax assets that are related to net operating losses of the holding company.

    本季平均資產報酬率為2.1%,遠高於上一季。本季確實包括了一些我將要討論的內容。我們對與控股公司淨經營虧損相關的遞延所得稅資產評估準備金進行了 1,660 萬美元的逆轉。

  • This quarter, a new legislation was enacted in Puerto Rico allowing, limited liability companies to be treated as a disregarded entities. Based on this change, we now expect that NOLs and the holding company will be mostly utilized against revenues, from one of its subsidiaries, resulting in the reversal.

    本季度,波多黎各頒布了一項新立法,允許將有限責任公司視為被視為不受重視的實體。基於這項變化,我們現在預計,NOL 和控股公司將主要用於抵消其子公司之一的收入,從而導致逆轉。

  • Also, during the quarter, we collected $2.3 million in payroll taxes related to the employee retention credit. That's been outstanding for a while, but we collected it this quarter.

    此外,在本季度,我們還收取了與員工保留抵免相關的 230 萬美元工資稅。這已經是相當出色的一段時間了,但我們是在本季收集到的。

  • And it resulted in a reduction of payroll costs, obviously. And we also recorded a $2.8 million valuation allowance for a commercial or real estate property in the Virgin Islands as a result of an ongoing litigation which involved the potential loss of title of the property.

    顯然,這降低了工資成本。我們還記錄了維京群島一處商業或房地產的 280 萬美元估值準備金,因為正在進行的訴訟可能導致該房產所有權的喪失。

  • If we were to exclude the DTA evaluation allowance and the employee retention credit, components from results, non-GAPA adjusted earnings per share, were $0.51 and return average assets was 1.7%. the quarter also had a reduction of 3 million in provision as compared to last quarter. Provision was $17.6 million. This was, mostly, due to a$ 2.2 million be benefit in the allowance for residential mortgage. We've seen updated, improved updated loss experience in this portfolio and also the projected macroeconomic for unemployment has an improvement in the trends.

    如果我們排除 DTA 評估津貼和員工保留抵免,業績組成部分,非 GAPA 調整後每股收益為 0.51 美元,平均資產回報率為 1.7%。與上一季相比,本季的撥備也減少了 300 萬美元。撥款為 1,760 萬美元。這主要是由於住宅抵押貸款津貼中增加了 220 萬美元。我們已經看到該投資組合的損失經歷有所更新和改善,而且預期的宏觀經濟失業趨勢也有所改善。

  • In terms of our net interest income, we reached $217.9 million for the quarter, which is 2 million higher than last quarter. That includes a $1.3 million improvement due to the, an extra day in the quarter.

    就我們的淨利息收入而言,本季我們達到 2.179 億美元,比上一季高出 200 萬美元。其中包括由於本季額外增加一天而帶來的 130 萬美元的改善。

  • Compared to the third quarter, net interest, the third quarter of 2024, I'm sorry, net interest income, it's 8% higher. Net interest margin, for the quarter was 457, 1 basis point higher than last quarter.

    與第三季的淨利息相比,2024 年第三季的淨利息收入增加了 8%。本季淨利差為457,較上季高1個基點。

  • And, over the last four quarters, margin has grown 32 basis points. Debated in prior calls where the reinvestment of the cash flows from the investment portfolio resulted in the 16 basis points expansion in the investment portfolio yields.

    並且,在過去四個季度中,利潤率成長了 32 個基點。在先前的電話會議中討論過,投資組合現金流的再投資導致投資組合收益率擴大了 16 個基點。

  • However, the margin ended up growing less than the 5 to 7 basis point guidance, we had provided. Aurelio mentioned, we saw a slowdown in consumer lending originations for the quarter, which was below our expectations, and ended up, reducing the average balance in the portfolio by $12 million.

    然而,利潤率最終增幅低於我們提供的 5 至 7 個基點的指引。Aurelio 提到,我們發現本季消費貸款發放量有所放緩,低於我們的預期,最終導致投資組合的平均餘額減少了 1,200 萬美元。

  • This, remember, these are high yielding portfolios and they are more creative to net interest income.

    請記住,這些都是高收益投資組合,它們對淨利息收入更有創意。

  • Also, we saw increased competitive pricing pressures, that led to a 15 basis points increase in the cost of government deposits and a 2 basis points increasing the cost of time deposits. The average cost of all other retail and commercial deposits remain flat at 72 basis points as compared to per quarter.

    此外,我們看到競爭性定價壓力增加,導致政府存款成本增加 15 個基點,定期存款成本增加 2 個基點。所有其他零售和商業存款的平均成本與每季相比保持不變,為 72 個基點。

  • In addition, when we look at the mix of deposits, you, we see a shift with time deposits growing $166 million at the end of the quarter, while, lower cost, interest-bearing no maturity deposits decreased $45 million.

    此外,當我們查看存款組合時,我們會看到定期存款在本季末增加了 1.66 億美元,而成本較低、有利息的無到期存款則減少了 4,500 萬美元。

  • Regarding other loan portfolios, we saw improvements in the quarter, with net interest in common on commercial loans increasing$ 3.8 million, related to $126 million increasing average balances, three basis points increasing yields, and we had an extra day in the quarter, which also improved, the net interest. The average balance on the residential portfolio grew $190 million for the quarter.

    至於其他貸款組合,我們在本季度看到了改善,商業貸款的共同淨利息增加了 380 萬美元,平均餘額增加了 1.26 億美元,收益率提高了三個基點,並且我們在本季度增加了一天,這也提高了淨利息。本季住宅投資組合的平均餘額增加了 1.9 億美元。

  • For the 4th quarter, we will continue to benefit from yield improvements from the reinvestment of the cash flows from the investment portfolio, but, this will be partially offset by the two projected Federal Reserve rate cuts, that would result in reduction in yields on the floating commercial loan portfolio, as well as the cash balances in the Fed. Remember, we have a floating com commercial portfolio which, about half of it, it's floating with either Prime or so for mostly, as its price, today.

    對於第四季度,我們將繼續受益於投資組合現金流再投資帶來的收益率提高,但是,這將被聯準會預計的兩次降息部分抵消,這將導致浮動商業貸款組合收益率以及聯準會現金餘額的下降。請記住,我們有一個浮動的商業投資組合,其中大約一半的浮動價格大多與 Prime 價格相同,就像今天的價格一樣。

  • Knowing that, we have an asset sensitive position, repricing on the asset side will happen faster than on the liability side. We expect that, margin for the 4th quarter to be sort of flat with increases in that interest income coming from loan portfolio growth.

    我們知道,我們有一個資產敏感的立場,資產方面的重新定價將比負債的重新定價更快。我們預計,第四季度的利潤率將保持平穩,而貸款組合的成長將帶來利息收入的增加。

  • In terms of other income for the quarter was relatively flat, slight reduction on car processing income due to lower transaction volumes.

    本季其他收入方面相對持平,由於交易量較低,汽車加工收入略有減少。

  • Expenses for the quarter were $124.9 million, which is $1.6 million higher than last quarter. It's mostly due to the net loss on the auto operation related to the $2.8 million valuation adjustment I just mentioned. Also payroll expenses decreased 300,000 due to the $2.3 million employee retention credit.

    本季支出為 1.249 億美元,比上一季高出 160 萬美元。這主要是由於我剛才提到的與 280 萬美元估值調整相關的汽車業務淨虧損。此外,由於 230 萬美元的員工保留抵免,工資支出減少了 30 萬美元。

  • That basically compensated for a $1.8 million increase we had from annual marri increases and from an additional payroll day in the quarter.

    這基本上彌補了我們因年度婚姻增加和本季額外工資發放而增加的 180 萬美元。

  • If we were to exclude Oreos and excluding the employee retention credit, expenses were $126.2 million, which compares to $124 million in the second quarter, which is a slightly above our guidance but very much in in line with the $125million to 126 million we have provided. The efficiency ratio for the quarter was 50%, pretty much unchanged, also when compared to prior to the second quarter.

    如果我們不包括奧利奧和員工保留抵免,支出為 1.262 億美元,而第二季度為 1.24 億美元,略高於我們的預期,但與我們提供的 1.25 億至 1.26 億美元的預期非常一致。本季的效率比率為 50%,與第二季之前相比幾乎沒有變化。

  • The projected expense trend for technology projects and business promotion efforts we plan to do in the fourth quarter. And so, we reiterate our guidance expense base of $125million to $126 million for the next couple of quarters. And you'll believe our efficiency ratio, our efficient ratio will be in that range of 50% to 52% considering expenses and income components.

    我們計劃在第四季度開展的技術項目和業務推廣工作的預期費用趨勢。因此,我們重申未來幾季的指導費用基數為 1.25 億美元至 1.26 億美元。你會相信我們的效率比率,考慮到費用和收入成分,我們的效率比率將在 50% 到 52% 的範圍內。

  • In terms of credit quality, it remained fairly stable in the quarters, in the quarter, MPAs decreased $8.6 million. Basically, $3.8 million decrease in non-accrual loans, mostly residential mortgages and CRE loans, and a $5 million reduction in CRE balances that includes the$ 2.8 million adjustment on the VI property I mentioned.

    就信貸品質而言,各季度保持相當穩定,本季 MPA 減少了 860 萬美元。基本上,非應計貸款減少了 380 萬美元,主要是住宅抵押貸款和 CRE 貸款,CRE 餘額減少了 500 萬美元,包括我提到的 VI 財產的 280 萬美元調整。

  • Inflows to non-accrual were $32.2 million, which is $2.2 million lower than last quarter, mostly commercial residential mortgage, inflows of 6.7, which are offset by, I'm sorry, reduction of $6.7 million in residential and commercial, with an offset of $4.5 million increase in consumer inflows. Loans in early delinquency, which we define it as 30 to 89 days past due.

    非應計流入為 3,220 萬美元,比上一季低 220 萬美元,主要是商業住宅抵押貸款,流入量為 670 萬美元,但住宅和商業流入量減少了 670 萬美元,抵消了這一影響,而消費者流入量增加了 450 萬美元。提前拖欠的貸款,我們將其定義為逾期 30 至 89 天。

  • Increase$ 8.9 million, mostly 11 case in the Florida region, a $ 6 million commercial case, that the payment was not received until later in October. In terms of consumer loans, early delinquency, it remained relatively flat from the second quarter, increasing only 300,000.

    增加890萬美元,其中大部分是佛羅裡達地區的11起案件,其中一宗600萬美元的商業案件,直到10月下旬才收到付款。就消費貸款而言,提前拖欠情況與第二季相比保持相對平穩,僅增加了30萬筆。

  • Moving on to the allowance. The allowance is down $1.6 million to $247 million. Decrease the decrease is mainly in the residential mortgage portfolio as loss severities have continued to improve.

    繼續討論津貼。配額減少了 160 萬美元,降至 2.47 億美元。由於損失嚴重程度持續改善,住宅抵押貸款組合的減少主要集中在住宅抵押貸款組合上。

  • On the other hand, the allowance for commercial loans increased based on the portfolio growth and then some deterioration that is projected on the CRE price index, as part of the macroeconomic, over projections. The ratio of the allowance for credit losses to loans decreased 4 basis points to 189, and this was mostly a decrease of 9 basis points in the allowance for grave losses on the residential mortgage portfolio.

    另一方面,商業貸款撥備金隨著投資組合的成長而增加,而作為宏觀經濟的一部分,商業房地產物價指數的預測也出現了一些惡化,超出了預期。信貸損失準備金與貸款之比下降4個基點至189,其中主要是住宅抵押貸款組合重大損失準備金下降9個基點。

  • Net charge-offs for the quarter were $19.9 million.62 basis points of average loans, which is up about $800,000 from prior quarter or two basis points. Last quarter, we had an 800,000 commercial loan recovery, and this quarter, we did not have any of this size, to offset some of the charges.

    本季淨沖銷金額為 1,990 萬美元,平均貸款 62 個基點,較上一季增加約 80 萬美元或兩個基點。上個季度,我們收回了 80 萬筆商業貸款,而本季度,我們並沒有收回這麼大規模的貸款,以抵銷部分費用。

  • As Aurelio mentioned, consumer charge of levels, continue to be normalizing and commercial charge of, continue to be very low. On the capital front, again, our strong capital base continues to support, the actions of share repurchases and dividends.

    正如 Aurelio 所提到的,消費者費用水準繼續正常化,商業費用仍然很低。在資本方面,我們強大的資本基礎繼續支持股票回購和股利行動。

  • During the quarter we declared $29 million in dividends and we purchased the$ 50 million in common stock we had mentioned. Regulatory capital ratios continue to be low, but these capital actions were upset by the earnings generated in the quarter.

    在本季度,我們宣布派發 2,900 萬美元的股息,並購買了先前提到的價值 5,000 萬美元的普通股。監管資本比率仍然很低,但這些資本行動因本季產生的收益而受到干擾。

  • In addition to all of this, we register a 6% increase in the tangible book value per share to $11.79 and the tangible common equity ratio expanded to 9.7%, also due to the $49 million improvement in the fair value of available for sale securities.

    除此之外,每股有形帳面價值成長 6% 至 11.79 美元,有形普通股權益比率擴大至 9.7%,也是由於可供出售證券的公允價值提高了 4,900 萬美元。

  • The remaining allowance still represents $2.42 in tangible book value per share and over 177 basis points in the tangible common equity ratio.

    剩餘的準備金仍相當於每股有形帳面價值 2.42 美元,有形普通股權益比率超過 177 個基點。

  • As we announced yesterday, our board approved an additional $200 million in share repurchase. Our intention is to continue the approach of opportunistically executing on our capital actions based on market circumstances with the base assumption of repurchasing approximately $50 million per quarter through to the end of 2026.

    正如我們昨天宣布的那樣,我們的董事會批准了額外 2 億美元的股票回購。我們的目的是繼續根據市場狀況擇機執行資本行動,基本假設是 2026 年底每季回購約 5,000 萬美元。

  • But again, as we have done so far, we will continue to deploy our excess capital in a thoughtful manner, looking for long-term best interests of our franchise and our shareholders. With that operator, I would like to open the call for questions.

    但正如我們迄今為止所做的那樣,我們將繼續以深思熟慮的方式部署我們的過剩資本,尋求我們的特許經營權和股東的長期最佳利益。現在,我想透過接線員開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brett Rabatin, Hovde Group.

    布雷特·拉巴廷,霍夫德集團。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • Hey guys, good morning. I wanted to start off, just want to make sure on the tax situation, that's one time, right? That doesn't continue from here in terms of any benefit.

    大家好,早安。首先,我只是想確認一下稅務狀況,這是一次,對嗎?從任何好處而言,這都不會繼續下去。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, there will be a benefit in the sense that we won't have reversals of deferred tax asset at these levels, but there is a benefit, on the normal operating losses or expenses we have at the holding company. Those are annual expenses that are, now we're not yielding any tax benefit and they will be offset also against revenues from this stuff.

    嗯,從某種意義上說,我們將不會在這些水平上逆轉遞延所得稅資產,這是一個好處,但對於我們在控股公司的正常經營損失或費用來說,這是一個好處。這些都是年度開支,現在我們沒有獲得任何稅收優惠,它們也將抵消這些東西的收入。

  • So it's not that it's a huge amount, but you saw that the effective tax rate came down a bit and that's reflecting some of that benefit. So no, not at the level of this reversal of DTA but there is a little benefit on the effective tax rate going forward.

    所以這並不是一個巨大的數額,但你看到實際稅率有所下降,這反映了部分好處。所以,雖然沒有達到 DTA 逆轉的水平,但對未來的有效稅率還是有一點好處的。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • Okay, that's helpful, and then wanted just to talk about I, I've seen the stats and I know that.

    好的,這很有幫助,然後我只想談談我,我已經看過統計數據並且我知道這一點。

  • The auto lending is finally, come in as expected for some time a bit. Any thoughts on the health of the consumer in Puerto Rico and your credit trends seem fairly stable from a consumer perspective, but just wanted to hear any thoughts on how you guys are seeing, on the grounds, consumer activity.

    汽車貸款終於如預期般出現了一段時間。您對波多黎各消費者健康狀況有何看法?從消費者的角度來看,你們的信貸趨勢似乎相當穩定,但我只是想聽聽你們對消費者活動的看法。

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think, it's clearly, auto sales, we can call it normalizing, we were expecting for the year, 5% adjustment coming down. It's actually 7 years today, but obviously, it's disrupted by, there were increased sales in the second quarter because of the tariffs and they were coming. Now you see a reduction, some sales were accelerated. So I think we need to see, what happened this quarter to normalize those auto sales and see what is the real, stable volume, they have fluctuated between, 100 to 120 units, 20,000 units per year for some years. So we expect, somewhere around that range, probably the second half of the year will determine how we project 2026.

    嗯,我認為,很明顯,汽車銷售,我們可以稱之為正常化,我們預計今年的汽車銷售將下降 5%。今天實際上已經 7 年了,但顯然,它受到了乾擾,由於關稅的影響,第二季的銷售額有所增加。現在你看到的是減少,但有些銷售加速了。所以我認為我們需要看看本季度發生了什麼,以使汽車銷售正常化,看看真正的穩定銷量是多少,幾年來,它們的銷量一直在每年 100 到 120 輛、20,000 輛之間波動。因此,我們預計,大約在這個範圍內,下半年可能會決定我們如何預測 2026 年。

  • Yes, credit demand is being lower. It's been, on the other hand, unsecured credit demand is being a little bit lower, we remember, 3 years ago, 2 years ago, we have been doing adjusted policies. We've seen the good performance of the portfolios across the board, and, some of the higher losses that we experience in credit cards and unsecure are being leveling. So we expect stability on the consumer, but we don't expect portfolio growth that we achieved for some years.

    是的,信貸需求正在下降。另一方面,無擔保信貸需求略低,我們記得,3 年前、2 年前,我們一直在調整政策。我們看到,整體投資組合表現良好,而且,我們在信用卡和無擔保貸款方面遭遇的一些較高損失正在逐漸減少。因此,我們預期消費將保持穩定,但我們預期投資組合不會像過去幾年那樣成長。

  • So the portfolio growth will come from residential which is performing excellent and from the commercial portfolios that we continue to gain some share across the different sectors. So that, I would say stability on the consumer, obviously working hard to, diminish any contraction of the portfolio. As we continue to move on with products and services on that on that segment.

    因此,投資組合的成長將來自於表現優異的住宅投資組合以及我們在不同領域繼續獲得一定份額的商業投資組合。因此,我想說,為了穩定消費者,顯然要努力減少投資組合的收縮。隨著我們繼續在該領域推出產品和服務。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • Okay. And then one last one if I can just around the margin guidance the flat in the 4th quarter, does that assume, in the face of the rate cuts, does that assume you are able to lower funding costs, you, deposits, even though the beta in Puerto Rico on the way up was obviously a lot slower than the main ones are you expecting the beta on deposits to be better on the way down?

    好的。最後一個問題,如果我可以大概了解第四季度的保證金指導持平情況,那麼在降息的情況下,是否假設您能夠降低融資成本,您的存款,即使波多黎各的貝塔係數在上升過程中明顯比主要貝塔係數慢得多,您是否預計存款的貝塔係數在下降過程中會更好?

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • I think, one element that definitely will come down, we have some index deposits by the government that are they move with the rates and some of that will come down. We don't see the other core retail products, coming down yet.

    我認為,有一個因素肯定會下降,那就是政府有一些指數存款,它們會隨著利率而變動,其中一些會下降。我們還沒有看到其他核心零售產品的價格下降。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Other than time deposits, but we do see some.

    除了定期存款外,我們確實看到了一些。

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Reduction other than time that they have, they move in the market, so there will be some reduction in cost of, on the cost of deposits, expected to happen, during the quarter. Obviously, how much that, can upset the mix of the portfolio.

    除了時間上的減少之外,他們還在市場上採取行動,因此預計本季存款成本將會降低。顯然,這在多大程度上會擾亂投資組合的結構。

  • Obviously, the margin is very strong, so, and, having less consumer loans at high yield, impact the margin directly, as well as if, which segments of the deposits are growing, which this quarter we have growth on the city, book, at market, not necessarily above market. So as an example, so it depends on the whole mix of the balance sheet, which is big.

    顯然,利潤率非常高,因此,高收益的消費貸款減少會直接影響利潤率,以及哪些存款部分在成長,本季我們的城市、帳面、市場都有成長,但不一定高於市場。舉個例子,這取決於資產負債表的整體組合,這是一個很大的數字。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • Okay, great, thank you guys.

    好的,太好了,謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Timur Braziler, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的 Timur Braziler。

  • Timur Braziler - Analyst

    Timur Braziler - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning.

    嗨,早安。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning, Timur .

    早安,帖木兒。

  • Timur Braziler - Analyst

    Timur Braziler - Analyst

  • Back on the deposits, can you just elaborate a little bit more on the competitive pressures that you're seeing on the government side, I guess how much economics are you having to give up? How much of that is going to potentially lower some of the benefits of the Able to reprice those with some of these rate cuts and then just lastly you said that you were optimistic that some of these competitive pressures might abate here maybe just give us some color as to what gives you that confidence.

    回到存款問題,您能否更詳細地闡述您在政府方面看到的競爭壓力,我猜您必須放棄多少經濟利益?其中有多少可能會降低能夠透過降低部分利率來重新定價的部分好處,然後最後您說,您樂觀地認為其中一些競爭壓力可能會減弱,也許可以讓我們了解一下是什麼讓您有這樣的信心。

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think the, it's, its cycle matters, some of these are contracted deposits that are index, so they are already contracted and they're not necessarily up for up for bid. So, they would, by, if the rates move, they will move with them, either monthly or quarterly. So some of them are, in our case, probably 40% of the government book is on that pocket.

    嗯,我認為,它的周期很重要,其中一些是指數合約存款,所以它們已經簽約,而且不一定會被競標。因此,如果利率變動,他們也會隨之變動,無論是每月還是每季。因此,就我們的情況而言,大概 40% 的政府帳目都花在了他們身上。

  • I think the others, the city, whatever matures, obviously move down with rates. I think competitive pressures are really coming from the smaller players, not from the large players.

    我認為其他城市無論怎樣成熟,利率顯然都會下降。我認為競爭壓力其實來自小型企業,而不是大型企業。

  • And the way we manage that is, we go after operational accounts plus, what additional services the government entities need, but, we compete in pricing where we have other type of relationships, not just to get a CD or, it's really have to add something else to the mix of the products that we sell on the franchise services. Municipalities have and other governments have a lot of payment services, deposit, pay. So, and obviously to complement that, we compete on CDs when they come to the market.

    我們管理的方式是,我們追求營運帳戶,再加上政府實體需要的額外服務,但是,我們在與其他類型關係的定價方面展開競爭,而不僅僅是為了獲得 CD,或者實際上必須在我們在特許經營服務上銷售的產品組合中添加其他東西。各市政府和其他政府都有很多支付服務,存款,支付。因此,顯然為了補充這一點,當 CD 進入市場時,我們會參與競爭。

  • Timur Braziler - Analyst

    Timur Braziler - Analyst

  • Okay, and I guess maybe tying that into kind of 4Q, 1Q is the expectation that deposit costs drop with the subsequent rate cuts, or do some of these, I guess how much of an offset some of these competitive pressures be to the plan drop and deposit costs?

    好的,我想也許將其與第四季度、第一季度聯繫起來,預計存款成本會隨著隨後的降息而下降,或者其中一些,我猜這些競爭壓力在多大程度上抵消了計劃下降和存款成本?

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • We do, we do expect some reduction in deposit cost coming down from, as a result of the reduction in rates. The main point is that typically we have seen debate on some of these deposit products move at, there is a lag as compared to some of the floating asset products. So, there is a timing, issue in terms of, when we see that on the asset side versus the deposit side. But we do expect reductions. It's just the pace at which all of them will come down.

    我們確實預計,由於利率降低,存款成本會下降。主要的一點是,我們通常看到關於一些存款產品的爭論,與一些浮動資產產品相比,存在滯後。因此,當我們在資產方面與存款方面看到這一點時,存在一個時間問題。但我們確實預計會減少。這只是他們所有人下降的速度。

  • Timur Braziler - Analyst

    Timur Braziler - Analyst

  • Okay, and then just on credit results at First Bank and 3Q were really strong. There was a couple, let's say in migration inbounds on the MPL side for your competitor banks on the island, including some degradation maybe on Puerto Rico itself, I guess, to what extent does credit at the other banks influence your own. Level of reserving in the way that you're thinking about your own portfolio, if at all.

    好的,那麼第一銀行和第三季的信貸業績確實非常強勁。假設在 MPL 方面,島上的競爭銀行的移民入境情況有所改善,包括波多黎各本身的信用狀況也出現了一些惡化,我想,其他銀行的信用在多大程度上會影響到你們自己的信用。如果有的話,以您考慮自己的投資組合的方式考慮儲備水準。

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, We, I, we've been telling for some time that, we have a firm risk appetite and we have policies that we follow and we have, the ticket, this size tickets that we cap and so, it, it's really our methodology is really the performance of our portfolio. Obviously, if there's things that could impact an industry. We take that into consideration, but, well, from what we have seen so far, we don't see any systemic or industry-wide, impactful.

    好吧,我們,我,我們已經說過一段時間了,我們有堅定的風險偏好,我們有我們遵循的政策,我們有我們限制的這種規模的票據,所以,這實際上是我們的方法,實際上是我們投資組合的表現。顯然,如果有些事情可能會影響一個產業。我們會考慮到這一點,但是,從目前的情況來看,我們並沒有看到任何系統性或全行業性的影響。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, other than, you know we tend to like look at each of our cases individually and, again, as Aurelio mentioned, unless we see something in industry would be more of what we're seeing on our own customer base. And what are the results that and the lines of business they have.

    是的,除此之外,您知道我們傾向於單獨查看每個案例,而且,正如 Aurelio 提到的那樣,除非我們在行業中看到某些東西,否則我們會在自己的客戶群中看到更多的東西。他們的成果和業務範圍是什麼?

  • Timur Braziler - Analyst

    Timur Braziler - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And then just last for me, I think more recently First Bank has been open to doing maybe M&A on the mainland. Can you just remind us of what you would be considering in terms of size, location, assets deposits, and kind of just your updated view on capital deployment here.

    好的,太好了。最後,我認為最近第一銀行可能願意在大陸進行併購。您能否提醒我們,您會考慮哪些規模、位置、資產存款以及您對資本配置的最新看法?

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, capital employment priorities are obviously number one organic growth. A fit, in the Florida market could be an alternative, a fit for us, it's a franchise that enhanced. Our current franchise, it's very easy to originate loans in Florida if you have the right teams. And they move from one bank to the other and as long as you have a good discipline of credit, you will perform well. And I think we have a history of that.

    嗯,資本就業重點顯然是第一有機成長。適合佛羅裡達市場可能是一種選擇,對我們來說是一種適合,這是一種增強的特許經營權。我們目前的特許經營權,如果你有合適的團隊,在佛羅裡達州發放貸款非常容易。他們從一家銀行轉到另一家銀行,只要你有良好的信用紀律,你就會表現得很好。我認為我們有這樣的歷史。

  • I think it would be definitely have to be complementary to our deposit franchise. That would be the profile. We have the capital, so, size will depend.

    我認為這肯定是對我們的存款特許經營權的補充。這就是個人資料。我們有資本,所以規模將取決於情況。

  • Timur Braziler - Analyst

    Timur Braziler - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you for the call.

    好的,謝謝您的來電。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kelly Motta, KBW.

    凱利·莫塔,KBW。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, thanks for the question. I wanted to wanted to circle back to the competitive landscape in Puerto Rico. I appreciate the color around the government deposits. Wondering if there's been any competitor, competition from outside the Puerto Rico banks, any if you've seen any new entrants into the market and, just, opine on the competitive landscape, thank you.

    你好,早安,謝謝你的提問。我想回到波多黎各的競爭格局。我很欣賞政府存款周圍的色彩。想知道是否有任何競爭對手,來自波多黎各銀行以外的競爭,是否有任何新進入者進入市場,並且只是對競爭格局發表意見,謝謝。

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Not on the deposits, it's really, what we see, it's more aggressive now on the smaller players, as I mentioned. Obviously in the credit card business, there's always been, a lot of entrants, and they dominate, US banks dominate the card insurance including, the larger brands. So the larger banks, so, no, nothing new on that front, yes.

    不是在存款方面,事實上,正如我所提到的,我們看到,現在對小參與者的態度更加積極。顯然,在信用卡業務中,一直有很多進入者,並且佔據主導地位,美國銀行主導著信用卡保險,其中包括較大的品牌。所以對於較大的銀行來說,在這方面沒有什麼新鮮事,是的。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • And it's also the credit unions that that play in the market, but not from, not coming from the outside, it's entities that have operations in Puerto Rico.

    信用合作社也在市場上發揮作用,但不是來自外部,而是在波多黎各開展業務的實體。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Okay, got it. That's helpful. There's the only caveat. (inaudible).

    好的,明白了。這很有幫助。這是唯一的警告。(聽不清楚)。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Kelly, I'm sorry. The only caveat, it's, the, there is one player, big player, which is called the US Treasury, and so the you face that with some of the, high-end, customers that they could move monies into treasury.

    凱利,對不起。唯一的警告是,有一個參與者,大參與者,即美國財政部,因此,你面對的是一些高端客戶,他們可能會將資金轉移到財政部。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. There's been a lot of news on onshoring, early glimmers of that picking up and helping Puerto Rico. Have you seen any notable impacts and how should we be thinking about that like more from a high level in terms of the potential?

    知道了。這很有幫助。關於在岸投資的新聞有很多,早期跡象表明,在岸投資正在興起並幫助波多黎各。您是否看到任何顯著的影響?從潛力的角度來看,我們該如何從更高的層次來思考這個問題?

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I Think you know in the in the. In the short-term, they have announced a few deals, and we will try to put some more detail on that in our investor deck, a more granular things that have been already approved or negotiated, we're trying to get more data on that.

    是的,我想你知道。短期內,他們已經宣布了一些交易,我們將嘗試在投資者簡報中提供更多細節,以及已經批准或談判的更詳細的事項,我們正在嘗試獲取更多相關數據。

  • In addition, but we don't see that, it's really in the short-term, probably, we continue to sustain and improve the construction sector. And whatever is related to materials and the labor-related, benefit of that. But not necessarily, we see, anything that most flows through the economy other than that impact, in the short-term, as we see this, expansions.

    此外,但我們沒有看到,在短期內,我們可能會繼續維持和改善建築業。凡是與材料和勞動力相關的事情,都會帶來好處。但我們認為,除了短期影響之外,並不一定對經濟產生最大影響,正如我們所見,就是擴張。

  • Become, operational, then we'll probably see, more employment, better compensation and expansion of the workforce, yes. But we don't expect that until probably, second half 2026 or go further, but it, the good thing is, it's a long-term benefit to sustain, the economy of the island rather than having a long-term risk by not having this commitment, yes.

    開始運作,然後我們可能會看到更多的就業機會、更好的薪資和勞動力的擴大,是的。但我們預計這可能要到 2026 年下半年或更久以後才會實現,但好消息是,這對於維持島嶼經濟具有長期利益,而不是因為沒有這項承諾而面臨長期風險,是的。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Got it, that's really helpful and then. I guess circling back to the margin, I know you guys have had we saw a nice uplift from on the securities book. Can you remind us about the cash flows on that one, and then two what the new loan yield originations look like just so we can kind of get a sense of the potential offset to some of the floating rate dynamics that you already articulated.

    明白了,這真的很有幫助。我想回到利潤率,我知道你們已經看到了證券帳簿上的良好成長。您能否提醒我們這方面的現金流,然後第二點,新的貸款收益來源是什麼樣的,這樣我們就可以了解您已經闡明的一些浮動利率動態的潛在抵消情況。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • So we have about $600 million of cash flows coming in this fourth quarter. The yields on that are around 1.5% on average. So that would be some of the cash flows that would immediately reprise. We also have, about a billion more in the first half of 2026 that also, on average are yielding that 1.5% that it's also come to, obviously with rates coming down, the reinvestment component, it's a bit lower than what we were, we, we're seeing rates somewhere between.

    因此,我們第四季的現金流約為 6 億美元。其收益率平均約為 1.5%。因此,部分現金流將會立即重新出現。2026 年上半年,我們還有大約 10 億美元的新增貸款,平均收益率也達到了 1.5%,顯然,隨著利率下降,再投資部分比之前的水平要低一些,我們看到的利率介於兩者之間。

  • 50basis points to 100 basis points lower already in some of the reinvestment options within our policy guides and some of it obviously, could go into lending, but, Aurelio made reference to it would be more on the commercial and residential side.

    我們的政策指南中的一些再投資選項已經降低了 50 個基點到 100 個基點,其中一部分顯然可以用於貸款,但奧雷利奧提到,它將更多地用於商業和住宅方面。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Okay, and if your loan book right now is 77, what, what's the new loan origination deals look like at I guess in Q3.

    好的,如果您現在的貸款帳簿是 77,那麼我猜第三季的新貸款發放交易是什麼樣的。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • You're talking about the overall or you're talking about just the, yes, that's the average yield, the average, those are average yields including consumer. You, if you take a look at the commercial side, mortgages, we're talking about, sort of 6%, 6.25% kind of rates, right, it's market so whatever you see in the market. The commercial portfolio yields are right now, overall commercial portfolios including, everything, it's about. 670 on average, so that's a combination of what goes into construction or CRE and C&I obviously, so that, we are not seeing big changes on spreads, it's a function of the base.

    您談論的是整體還是僅僅談論,是的,這是平均收益率,平均值,這些是包括消費者在內的平均收益率。如果你看一下商業方面,抵押貸款,我們正在談論的是 6%、6.25% 左右的利率,對的,這是市場,所以無論你在市場上看到什麼。目前,商業投資組合收益率,包括所有資產在內的整體商業投資組合收益率,平均約為 670,這顯然是建築業、商業地產和商業與工業投資的組合,因此,我們沒有看到利差發生大的變化,它是基數的函數。

  • The base meaning the base rate, which we either, so far or prime, which are the main ones, that would be the ones, the adjustments we'll see, but not necessarily on the spread, it's a lot more.

    基準是指基準利率,到目前為止,我們要么是主要利率,要么是主要利率,這些是我們將看到的調整,但不一定是利差,而是更多。

  • Consumer, yields are going to be similar to what we have now, but, it's only an issue of what's the level. We, consumer on average are about 10.5%, that what we have in the blended in the whole portfolio of consumer portfolio, and that should stay sort of around those levels, but it's a function of a volume more than anything on the consumer.

    消費者的收益將與我們現在的收益相似,但這只是水平的問題。我們消費者的平均比例約為 10.5%,這是我們在整個消費者投資組合中混合的比例,而且應該保持在那個水平左右,但它更多地取決於數量,而不是消費者的任何因素。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Arren Cyganovich, Truist.

    Arren Cyganovich,Truist。

  • Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

    Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

  • Thanks. I'm sorry if you mentioned this, but what's your outlook for loan growth, into the 4th quarter, I think you said that NII is expected to be higher despite the kind of flattish and, just thinking about, you know what you're thinking there and longer.

    謝謝。如果您提到這一點,我很抱歉,但是您對貸款成長的前景如何?進入第四季度,我想您說過,儘管 NII 略有放緩,但預計它會更高,想想看,您知道您在那裡想的是什麼,而且會持續更長時間。

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, we, I did mention that, we have the guidance that we have for the full year is between 3% and 4%. And I think the original guidance was 5 missing or digit, this is actually considering what happened in the auto lending side over, the 3rd quarter and actually part of the second quarter. It's a primary driver, some of, some offset has been provided by mortgage and we do have a fairly strong fight on the commercial. Obviously, there's always timing issues on those. but the pipelines continue healthy.

    是的,我確實提到過,我們對全年的預期是在 3% 到 4% 之間。我認為最初的指導是缺少 5 位數字,這實際上是考慮到汽車貸款方面、第三季以及第二季的部分情況。這是主要的驅動因素,部分抵消是由抵押貸款提供的,我們在商業方面確實有相當強勁的競爭力。顯然,這些問題總是存在時間問題,但管道仍然保持健康。

  • Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

    Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

  • And you announced a new share repurchase program and there's still some remaining authorization from the prior plan can you talk about the cadence you're expecting in terms of, share repurchases over the next several quarters.

    您宣布了一項新的股票回購計劃,並且之前的計劃仍有一些剩餘的授權,您能否談談您對未來幾季股票回購的節奏的預期。

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we always been opportunistic, in the market and we still have $38 million from the this year authorization we can, move back and forth and increase or decrease as we believe it is prudent. Again, open market is our approach, no ASRs are, schedule or as part of the strategy, so we'll continue monitoring.

    嗯,我們一直在市場上抓住機會,今年我們仍然有 3800 萬美元的授權,我們可以來回移動,增加或減少,因為我們認為這是謹慎的。再次強調,開放市場是我們的方法,沒有 ASR,規劃或作為策略的一部分,所以我們將繼續監控。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, as I mentioned, where base assumption continues to be around $50 million a quarter. Obviously with the flexibility or the optionality of saying a little bit more, a little bit less depending on what are the circumstances on the market.

    是的,正如我所提到的,基本假設仍然是每季 5000 萬美元左右。顯然,根據市場情況,可以靈活地或選擇性地多說一點或少說一點。

  • Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

    Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

  • Perfect. All right. And then, lastly just to follow-up on the, mainland M&A question, it seems like a lot of, other mainland banks are also looking to expand in that geography, is it, would you say that the environment currently would be somewhat challenging to get a deal done, around that area.

    完美的。好的。最後,關於大陸併購的問題,似乎許多其他大陸銀行也在尋求在該地區擴張,您是否認為目前的環境對於在該地區達成交易來說會有些挑戰?

  • Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Again, opportunities come and go, so, we'll see, we continue to monitor and see, what could happen. I think there's some. You know If you see some of the bank reports, obviously there's a credit site could be more reflected in the US, so that could bring opportunities.

    再次,機會來了又去,所以,我們會看到,我們會繼續監測並觀察會發生什麼。我認為有。你知道,如果你看到一些銀行報告,顯然信用網站可以更多地反映美國的情況,所以這可能會帶來機會。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Got it. Okay, thank you. These are always, these are always the timing opportunity.

    知道了。好的,謝謝。這些總是,這些總是時機機會。

  • Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

    Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Moss ,Raymond James.

    史蒂夫莫斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Steve Moss - Analyst

    Steve Moss - Analyst

  • Morning and maybe just following up Orlando on the margin here in terms of the timing of the cash flows from the security portfolio, is that just, is that throughout the quarter, or is that kind of late in the quarter to impact the margin?

    早安,也許只是跟進奧蘭多在證券投資組合現金流時間方面的利潤率,這是否只是整個季度,還是在季度末影響利潤率?

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, it, you saw it's. it's not really equally spread, but you can assume it's on average, November and December tend to be the highest, in terms of the cash flow, coming in. You saw that last quarter we had that 16 basis points pick up, so we had about $500 million, for the for the third quarter that, those were the cash flows. More or less that we're having, the big pricing impact. So we, and all of it did not benefit the 3rd quarter. Some of it we'll see in the 4th quarter.

    嗯,您看到了,它實際上並不是均勻分佈的,但您可以假設它是平均的,就現金流而言,十一月和十二月往往是最高的。您看到,上個季度我們的現金流增加了 16 個基點,因此,對於第三季而言,我們的現金流約為 5 億美元。我們或多或少都受到了巨大的定價影響。所以我們,所有這些都沒有為第三季帶來好處。我們將在第四季度看到其中一些內容。

  • So it averaged out, a bit. So we should see, pick up, obviously with the only difference it's what I mentioned that we are seeing rates, that the options that we have in rates being between 50basis points to 100 basis points lower based on, our policy guidelines of what we put in the portfolio, as we don't, we don't. Put much of credit risk in the portfolio. it's more of an interest rate more than anything.

    所以它有點平均。因此,我們應該看到,顯然唯一的區別是我提到的我們看到的利率,我們在利率方面的選擇在 50 個基點到 100 個基點之間,這取決於我們在投資組合中投入的政策指導方針,因為我們沒有,我們沒有。將大部分信用風險放入投資組合中。它更多的是一種利率。

  • Steve Moss - Analyst

    Steve Moss - Analyst

  • Right, okay, just appreciate that color and then on the loan loss reserve here you guys have made, a number of, I guess qualitative adjustments if you will, or probably the last 12months or maybe 18 months just kind of curious here, you know.

    好的,好的,請欣賞一下顏色,然後對於這裡的貸款損失準備金,你們已經做了一些定性調整,或者可能是過去 12 個月或 18 個月,只是有點好奇,你知道。

  • Kind of as you think about credits perform quite well on the island for an extended period, your consumer credit charge-offs are lower year over year. Just kind of curious as to, where you think that reserve ratio could shake out over the next 6months to 12 months.

    正如您所想,島上的信貸在較長時期內表現良好,您的消費者信貸沖銷額逐年下降。我只是有點好奇,您認為未來 6 個月到 12 個月的準備率會發生什麼變化。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • It's we don't talk about specific guidance like that specific, but, what I can tell you is that on the mortgage side, we have seen the trends with the lower charge of that, our methodology uses historical loss information that it's updated, all the time and obviously as a, as you get more history with better numbers.

    我們不會談論具體的指導,但是,我可以告訴你的是,在抵押貸款方面,我們已經看到了費用較低的趨勢,我們的方法使用歷史損失信息,它會一直更新,顯然,隨著你獲得更多的歷史記錄和更好的數字。

  • In terms of losses that improves the ratio, so the com the residential reserves, should come down. There is always an uncertainty on the, forecast, the macroeconomic forecast projections, we've seen. The stability on the unemployment sector and, the unemployment ratios in Puerto Rico reflect on the way the trends are expected on some of the portfolio, especially and when you look at the downside of scenarios we do include in our reserve calculations.

    就損失而言,比率的提高,使得住宅儲備金的比率應該會下降。我們看到,宏觀經濟預測預測總是存在不確定性。波多黎各失業部門的穩定性和失業率反映了部分投資組合的預期趨勢,尤其是當您查看我們在儲備計算中包含的情境的下降趨勢時。

  • So mortgage, I do expect with credit expectations we have that it would continue to come down a bit. The consumer, we're still seeing, obviously we had, as you mentioned, the 23 and 24 we saw increases related to those vintages of the older vintages of 2022and 2023 vintage, we see more stability now on the charges and that includes that affects calculations.

    因此,我確實預計抵押貸款會隨著我們的信貸預期而繼續下降。就消費者而言,我們仍然看到,顯然,正如您所提到的,23 和 24 年我們看到了與 2022 年和 2023 年較舊年份相關的增長,現在我們看到收費更加穩定,這包括影響計算的費用。

  • So that for now will be sort of stable, I would say in the meantime. And commercial has been pretty good, so I don't see major changes in commercial.

    所以我想說,目前情況會比較穩定。而且商業表現一直都很好,所以我看不到商業方面有重大變化。

  • Steve Moss - Analyst

    Steve Moss - Analyst

  • Okay, great. I appreciate all the color. Thank you.

    好的,太好了。我欣賞所有的色彩。謝謝。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Steve.

    謝謝,史蒂夫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kelly Motta, KBW.

    凱利·莫塔,KBW。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Hey, thank you for letting me, jump back on. I just wanted to close the loop on the tax rate just given it looks like the FTE adjustment is up a bit and there was some noise in the quarter. Do you have a good like, approximation of what the go for tax rate looks like here? Does it, is it any materially different after adjusting for some of these onetime things you have in the quarter? Any help would be appreciated.

    嘿,謝謝你讓我重新跳上來。我只是想關閉稅率循環,因為看起來 FTE 調整有點上升,本季出現了一些噪音。您對這裡的稅率有大致的了解嗎?在調整了本季的一些一次性事項後,情況是否有實質差異?任何幫助都將不勝感激。

  • Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Orlando Berges-Gonzalez - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • The number that we put in the price of effective tax rate of about 22.2% which is the estimated for the full 20 25 already reflects some of these expected improvements, so I would say that's a good number to use as a as a guidance.

    我們把有效稅率約為 22.2% 的價格作為對整個 2025 年的估計,這個數字已經反映了一些預期的改進,所以我認為這是一個很好的數字,可以作為指導。

  • We remember that, with a few things here and there, as we reinvest on the investment portfolio, a large chunk of that would have tax benefits and since we are reinvested our better yields that reflects on the rates. Then you have other components of the operations on some of the growth on the commercial lending side, that's on a taxable side. So the 22.2%, I think reflects fairly good, a number that should be between that 22% to 22.5% range. It's what I'm Expecting,

    我們記得,當我們對投資組合進行再投資時,其中很大一部分將獲得稅收優惠,而且由於我們進行了再投資,因此我們的更高收益率會反映在利率上。然後,您還會發現商業貸款方面的一些增長業務的其他組成部分,這是應稅的。因此,我認為 22.2% 反映出相當好的水平,這個數字應該在 22% 到 22.5% 的範圍內。這正是我所期待的,

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • I apologize. I missed that in the release. Thank you.

    我很抱歉。我在發佈時錯過了這一點。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes. Thank you. So just as a final reminder, is that one on your telephone keypad to ask you a question.

    是的。謝謝。最後提醒一下,這是透過電話鍵盤向您提問的。

  • And as we have no further questions in the queue, I will hand back over to Ramon Rodriguez for any final comments.

    由於我們沒有其他問題,我將把時間交還給拉蒙·羅德里格斯 (Ramon Rodriguez) 以徵求他的最後意見。

  • Ramon Rodriguez - Senior Vice President Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations

    Ramon Rodriguez - Senior Vice President Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations

  • Thanks to everyone for participating in today's call. We will be attending half these Financial Services conference in Naples on November 4th. We look forward to seeing a number of you at this event and we greatly appreciate your continued support. Have a great day.

    感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們將於 11 月 4 日參加在那不勒斯舉行的半數金融服務會議。我們期待在本次活動中見到你們,並非常感謝你們一直以來的支持。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you everyone for joining today's call. This conclude the call, please you may not disconnect. Have a great day.

    感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。通話至此結束,請不要掛斷。祝你有美好的一天。