Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (FBIN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Stacy, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to the Fortune Brands Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

大家下午好。我叫史黛西，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。歡迎參加 Fortune Brands 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Curt Worthington, VP of Finance and Investor Relations. Curt, please go ahead.

現在，我將把電話轉交給財務和投資者關係副總裁科特沃辛頓。科特，請繼續。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Fortune Brands Innovations Third Quarter Earnings Call. Hopefully, everyone has had a chance to review the earnings release. The earnings release and the audio replay of this call can be found on the Investors section of our fbin.com website.

各位下午好，歡迎參加 Fortune Brands Innovations 第三季財報電話會議。希望大家都有機會查看財報。財報發布和本次電話會議的錄音回放可在我們 fbin.com 網站的投資者關係版塊找到。

I want to remind everyone that the forward-looking statements we make on the call today, either in our prepared remarks or in the associated question-and-answer session, are based on current expectations and market outlook and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated. These risks are detailed in our various filings with the SEC. The company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. Any references to operating profit or margin, earnings per share or free cash flow on today's call will focus on our results on a before charges and gains basis unless otherwise specified.

我想提醒大家，我們今天在電話會議上所作的前瞻性陳述，無論是在我們準備好的發言稿中還是在相關的問答環節中，都是基於當前的預期和市場展望，並且受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與目前的預期存在重大差異。這些風險已在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的各種文件中詳細說明。除法律要求外，本公司不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。除非另有說明，本次電話會議中提及的營業利潤或利潤率、每股收益或自由現金流量均指扣除費用和收益前的業績。

Please visit our website for our reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

請造訪我們的網站，查看這些非GAAP財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節表。

With me on the call today are Nick Fink, our Chief Executive Officer; and Jon Baksht, our Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we have allowed time to address some questions.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的有我們的執行長尼克·芬克和我們的財務長喬恩·巴克什特。在宣讀完準備好的發言稿後，我們留時間回答一些問題。

I will now turn the call over to Nick. Nick?

現在我將把通話轉給尼克。缺口？

Thanks, Curt, and good afternoon to everyone. Thank you for joining our call.

謝謝你，科特，大家下午好。感謝您參加我們的電話會議。

In the third quarter, Fortune Brands innovations had solid sales performance and outperformed our end market, demonstrating the power of our brands and our people. Our sales in the third quarter were roughly flat versus the same quarter of 2024. And when excluding China, increased 1%.

第三季度，財富品牌創新產品銷售業績穩健，超越了終端市場，展現了我們品牌和員工的力量。第三季我們的銷售額與 2024 年同期基本持平。排除中國後，成長了 1%。

From a point-of-sale perspective, excluding China, we estimate that we outperformed the market by almost 200 basis points, with a low single-digit point-of-sale growth.

從銷售點角度來看，除中國以外，我們估計我們的業績比市場高出近 200 個基點，銷售點成長率為個位數。

While consumer sentiment and housing activity are still facing near-term pressures, our team is focused on execution and advanced several key strategic initiatives. Our balance sheet remains very healthy as we continue to generate strong free cash flow and continue investing behind our core growth initiatives. We remain focused on our strategies while leveraging our Fortune Brands advantage capabilities to continue to position the company for sustained above-market growth. We believe we are well positioned to continue outperforming our end market for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

儘管消費者信心和住房活動仍面臨短期壓力，但我們的團隊專注於執行，並推動了幾項關鍵策略措施。由於我們持續產生強勁的自由現金流並繼續投資於我們的核心成長計劃，我們的資產負債表仍然非常健康。我們將繼續專注於我們的策略，同時利用我們的財富品牌優勢能力，使公司繼續保持高於市場平均的持續成長。我們相信，我們有能力在 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年繼續跑贏終端市場。

On today's call, I will start by sharing an update on our transformation and provide some examples of how it is advancing our strategy and delivering results. Next, I will provide a perspective on the macroeconomic environment and why I believe our portfolio balances stability with exceptional growth opportunities. I will then close with an overview of our performance before turning the call over to Jon for a detailed discussion of our financial results, updates to our guidance for the remainder of 2025 and some thoughts on our emerging expectations for 2026.

在今天的電話會議上，我將首先分享我們轉型工作的最新進展，並舉例說明轉型如何推進我們的策略並取得成果。接下來，我將從宏觀經濟環境的角度闡述我的觀點，並解釋為什麼我認為我們的投資組合能夠在保持穩定的同時，提供卓越的成長機會。最後，我將概述我們的業績，然後將電話會議交給 Jon，由他詳細討論我們的財務業績、2025 年剩餘時間的業績指引更新以及我們對 2026 年的一些初步預期。

The third quarter marked a major milestone in our company's evolution. We welcomed more than 500 associates into our new campus headquarters in the Chicago land area and achieved our hiring commitments two years earlier than planned. The quality of our new hires has been exceptional. They have joined numerous top-performing associates from within the organization who are either local or elected to relocate, creating a powerhouse team. This combination provides an optimal mix of continuity and new perspectives.

第三季是我們公司發展歷程中的重要里程碑。我們迎來了 500 多名員工進駐位於芝加哥地區的新總部園區，並比原計劃提前兩年完成了招募目標。我們新進員工的素質非常出色。他們與公司內部眾多表現優異的員工（包括本地員工和選擇搬遷至此的員工）一起，組建了一支強大的團隊。這種組合實現了延續性和新視角的最佳結合。

While our headquarters consolidation is first and foremost about accelerated growth, it has also allowed us to take a very critical look at our capabilities talent and investments to drive increased efficiency across the organization.

雖然我們總部整合的首要目的是為了加速成長，但也讓我們能夠非常認真地審視我們的能力、人才和投資，從而提高整個組織的效率。

Our state-of-the-art campus is perfectly suited for our business unit-led organizational design, which is supported by dedicated centers of excellence. Our footprint now mirrors our strategy, and we're already seeing increased collaboration and elevated execution, which is starting to show in our results.

我們先進的園區非常適合我們以業務部門為主導的組織設計，並由專門的卓越中心提供支援。我們的業務佈局現在與我們的策略相符，我們已經看到協作增加，執行力提高，這開始體現在我們的業績中。

As I've said previously, this was the third of three phases of our transformation into a tightly aligned operating company. With most of this transition successfully behind us, I'm excited to see how we continue to accelerate performance in 2026 and beyond.

正如我之前所說，這是我們轉型成為緊密協作的營運公司的三個階段中的第三個階段。隨著大部分轉型工作順利完成，我很期待看到我們在 2026 年及以後如何繼續提升業績。

Throughout this transformation, we've maintained a consistent overarching strategy. Our brand strength, focus on innovation and expertise in channel management create a compelling value proposition and drives our performance. Our execution of this strategy leverages Fortune Brands advantage capabilities, which are category management, business simplification, global supply chain excellence and digital transformation. These strengths enable us to rapidly adapt to shifting markets, increase market share and deliver innovation at scale. Our alignment into an execution-focused operating company is allowing us to better leverage strengths across our organization with tangible results this quarter.

在整個轉型過程中，我們始終堅持一致的整體策略。我們的品牌實力、對創新的專注以及在通路管理方面的專業知識創造了引人注目的價值主張，並推動了我們的業績。我們執行這項策略充分利用了財富品牌的優勢能力，包括品類管理、業務簡化、全球供應鏈卓越性和數位轉型。這些優勢使我們能夠快速適應不斷變化的市場，提高市場份額，並大規模地實現創新。我們轉型為一家以執行為導向的營運公司，使我們能夠更好地發揮整個組織的優勢，並在本季度取得實際成果。

Using advanced analytics, data science and deep insights into customers and consumers, we are able to implement precise strategies for pricing, promotions and product assortment. This precision allows us to maintain a careful balance between margin protection, price stability and demand responsiveness and facilitates sustainable share growth over the long term, even amidst a dynamic external environment.

利用先進的分析技術、數據科學以及對客戶和消費者的深刻洞察，我們得以實施精準的定價、促銷和產品組合策略。這種精準性使我們能夠在保證金保護、價格穩定和需求響應之間保持謹慎的平衡，並有助於在動態的外部環境中實現長期可持續的市場份額成長。

We continue to expect to fully offset the anticipated in-year dollar impact of tariffs in 2025 and the anticipated annualized dollar impact in 2026 through a combination of supply chain actions, cost out opportunities, and strategic pricing actions.

我們仍然期望透過供應鏈措施、降低成本的機會和策略定價措施的組合，完全抵銷 2025 年關稅預計帶來的美元影響和 2026 年預計帶來的年度美元影響。

Fortune Brands has consistently acted as the price leader in our categories and our high integrity transparent and collaborative approach to tariff pricing was consistent with that history of leadership. As a result, our tariff-related pricing was relatively modest. And absent any new significant tariffs, is now largely in the market.

Fortune Brands 一直都是我們各個品類的價格領導者，我們高度誠信、透明和協作的關稅定價方式也與這一領導地位的歷史一脈相承。因此，我們的關稅相關定價相對溫和。如果沒有新的重大關稅，目前已基本進入市場。

While some of our competitors are still taking significant additional tariff pricing, our work for 2025 tariff pricing is essentially complete and has been for some time. That positions us well to focus on execution, strengthen channel relationships and preserve pricing integrity while allowing us to capture additional share. We intend to opportunistically look for areas to now promote and drive volume.

雖然我們的一些競爭對手仍在進行大量的額外關稅定價，但我們 2025 年關稅定價的工作基本上已經完成，並且已經有一段時間了。這使我們能夠更好地專注於執行、加強通路關係和維持價格完整性，同時也能獲得更大的市場份額。我們打算把握機會，尋找合適的領域進行推廣，進而提升銷售量。

Now turning to the external environment. The macro environment remains uneven, with consumer sentiment cautious and housing activity showing mixed signals. However, our demand profile is stable, and we see green shoots heading into 2026.

現在轉向外部環境。宏觀環境依然不平衡，消費者情緒謹慎，房地產活動也呈現喜憂參半的訊號。然而，我們的需求狀況穩定，我們看到2026年將出現復甦跡象。

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, the US housing market continues to show signs of stabilization following a period of elevated mortgage rates and constrained affordability.

進入 2025 年最後一個季度，美國房地產市場在經歷了高抵押貸款利率和購房能力受限的時期後，繼續顯示出穩定跡象。

While overall home sales remain subdued, recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have helped ease borrowing costs with a 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipping to its lowest level in a year and almost a full point below where they were at the start of 2025.

儘管整體房屋銷售仍然低迷，但聯準會最近的降息措施幫助緩解了借貸成本，30 年期固定抵押貸款利率降至一年來的最低水平，比 2025 年初的水平低了近一個百分點。

This has sparked renewed by our interest and a surge of refinancing activity, suggesting that pent-up demand may begin to unlock as affordability improves. Home inventory levels are also rising, particularly in the South and West giving buyers more options and helping shift the market toward a more balanced state.

這重新激發了我們的興趣，並引發了再融資活動的激增，這表明隨著住房負擔能力的提高，被壓抑的需求可能會開始釋放。房屋庫存水準也在上升，尤其是在南部和西部地區，這為購屋者提供了更多選擇，並有助於使市場轉向更平衡的狀態。

Prior business, which is primarily focused on repair and remodel, the mid- to longer-term outlook remains encouraging. In the near term, R&R is below trend even when normalizing for the post-COVID period. However, we believe R&R is poised to rebound in the not-too-distant future, driven by aging housing stock and deferred maintenance projects as well as a consumer base, which is increasingly interested in renovating their homes. For example, a recent survey indicated that 84% in of homeowners plan to renovate a part of their home in the next 12 months. Record levels of tappable homeowner equity, together with lower rates means that homeowners are in a strong position to finance improvements through equity extraction tools like HELOC and cash out refinancing.

先前的業務主要集中在維修和改造方面，中長期前景依然令人鼓舞。短期內，即使考慮到後新冠疫情時期的正常情況，R&R 仍低於趨勢水準。然而，我們認為，在老舊住房存量和延期維護項目以及對房屋翻新越來越感興趣的消費者群體的推動下，R&R 行業有望在不久的將來反彈。例如，最近的一項調查顯示，84% 的房主計劃在未來 12 個月內翻新房屋的一部分。創紀錄的可提取房主淨值，加上較低的利率，意味著房主們有能力透過房屋淨值信用額度 (HELOC) 和現金提取再融資等淨值提取工具來為房屋改造提供資金。

Recent data shows that homeowners are utilizing home equity lending methods at the highest rates since 2022 with momentum building. Across our channels and segments, we compete in smaller ticket categories where consumers look to trusted brands and innovation to deliver value. Even in the trade down environment, our brands were made the preferred choice by Pros and consumers because they combine quality, style, innovation and reliability at accessible price points.

最新數據顯示，房主利用房屋淨值貸款的方式達到 2022 年以來的最高水平，而且這一趨勢還在持續增長。在我們的各個通路和細分市場中，我們專注於小額消費品類，消費者希望透過值得信賴的品牌和創新來獲得價值。即使在消費品價格普遍下降的環境下，我們的品牌仍然受到專業人士和消費者的青睞，因為它們兼具品質、風格、創新和可靠性，而且價格實惠。

Our single-family new construction, which comprises roughly one-fourth of our total sales has faced headwinds from elevated rates and cautious builder sentiment, it remains a long-term driver of growth, supported by a shortage of existing homes. As interest rates continue to trend downward and consumer confidence stabilizes, we anticipate a recovery in single-family activity, which we expect will provide additional growth across our portfolio.

我們的單戶住宅新建業務約佔總銷售額的四分之一，儘管受到高利率和建築商謹慎情緒的不利影響，但由於現有房屋短缺，它仍然是長期成長的驅動力。隨著利率持續下降和消費者信心趨於穩定，我們預計獨棟住宅市場活動將出現復甦，我們預計這將為我們的投資組合帶來額外的成長。

Our products are well positioned to benefit from the torque of new construction growth with manageable downside risk. Our products are not affected by homebuilders reducing square footage for affordability efficient design changes do not significantly change the number of faucets, valves or entry doors within a home. In fact, many of our products can contribute to improved housing affordability because they are easy to install, durable, and can even help save money through reduced insurance premiums and utility costs. It is also important to note that the vast majority of our products are installed later in the construction process. which results in lower variability since completions serve as a moderating factor compared to the more volatile starts.

我們的產品定位良好，能夠從新建建築成長的推動作用中獲益，同時下行風險可控。我們的產品不受房屋建築商為降低成本而減少建築面積的影響；高效的設計變更不會顯著改變房屋內的水龍頭、閥門或入口門的數量。事實上，我們的許多產品都能幫助提高住房可負擔性，因為它們易於安裝、經久耐用，甚至可以透過降低保險費和水電費來幫助節省金錢。值得注意的是，我們絕大多數的產品都是在施工過程的後期安裝。由於竣工階段起到了調節作用，與波動較大的開工階段相比，這導致產品的變異性較低。

Finally, our relationships with builders positions us as the incumbent brand preferred by both professionals and homeowners when these homes eventually engage in repair and remodel activity.

最後，我們與建築商的關係使我們成為專業人士和房主在房屋最終需要維修和改造時首選的現有品牌。

Overall, we believe our balanced portfolio provides stability while also offering attractive growth potential, which comes with new construction.

整體而言，我們相信我們均衡的投資組合既能提供穩定性，又能提供有吸引力的成長潛力，而這得益於新建項目。

With our advantaged footprint and brand strength, we are confident in our ability to continue outperforming our end market and are poised for accelerated growth.

憑藉我們優越的市場佈局和強大的品牌實力，我們有信心繼續超越終端市場，並已做好加速成長的準備。

Turning to our third quarter performance. Sales were roughly flat at $1.1 billion, and excluding the impact of China, we're up 1%. Our margins were 17.9% and earnings per share were $1.09.

接下來來看看我們第三季的業績。銷售額基本持平，為 11 億美元；若不計入中國市場的影響，則成長了 1%。我們的利潤率為 17.9%，每股收益為 1.09 美元。

Turning to our segment highlights. Our Water segment delivered another quarter of market outperformance Sales were $619 million, down 3% versus third quarter of 2024. Excluding China, net sales were roughly flat. Importantly, our point-of-sale results, excluding China, were up low single digits versus a market, which we estimate was slightly down.

接下來是本集節目的亮點。我們的水務業務板塊又一個季度實現了優於市場的表現。銷售額為 6.19 億美元，比 2024 年第三季下降了 3%。剔除中國市場後，淨銷售量基本持平。值得注意的是，除中國以外，我們的銷售點業績實現了個位數低成長，而我們估計市場整體略有下降。

In Moen, we executed the strategic and targeted promotional activity that we called out during our second quarter call, driving momentum and strong sell-through with key partners. We increased our share with all three of our largest retail partners during the quarter, and Moen continues to be recognized as the most trusted brand of facets. Our brand strength with both consumers and the Pro is increasingly evident. Our innovative products continue to win external accolades including Moen's recent inclusion on Time Magazine's Best Inventions of 2025 list.

在摩恩，我們執行了我們在第二季度電話會議上提出的策略性和有針對性的促銷活動，推動了與主要合作夥伴的銷售勢頭和強勁的銷售業績。本季度，我們與三大零售合作夥伴的市佔率均有所成長，摩恩繼續被公認為最值得信賴的水龍頭品牌。我們在消費者和專業人士中的品牌實力越來越明顯。我們的創新產品不斷贏得外部讚譽，包括摩恩最近入選《時代》雜誌2025年最佳發明名單。

In wholesale, demand remained resilient. Importantly, our relationships with key builders remain very strong. as we not only resigned a number of our key national builders, but also converted others to the Moen brand, resulting in further share gains. We are well positioned with builders due to Moen's exceptionally strong value proposition and our superior service capabilities and we expect to continue to take additional share in this category.

批發市場需求依然強勁。重要的是，我們與主要建築商的關係仍然非常牢固。我們不僅與多家主要全國性建築商續約，也將其轉化為摩恩品牌客戶，從而進一步提升了市場份額。由於摩恩產品極具競爭力的價值主張和卓越的服務能力，我們在建築商中佔據了有利地位，我們期望繼續在這個領域獲得更多市場份額。

The House of Rohl portfolio saw significant sales growth over the third quarter of 2024, and delivered low double-digit point-of-sale growth, significantly outpacing the broader market. Our luxury consumer remains strong and continues to prioritize Craftsmanship and design. Our brands are strategically positioned to capitalize on sustained demand and the work we have done to build our luxury brands portfolio is yielding positive results. We expect this to continue to serve as a growth platform through the rest of 2025 and beyond.

2024 年第三季度，Rohl 旗下產品組合實現了顯著的銷售成長，並實現了兩位數的低銷售點成長，顯著超過了整體市場。我們的奢侈品消費者依然強勁，並繼續將工藝和設計放在首位。我們的品牌已進行策略性定位，以充分利用持續的需求，我們為打造奢侈品牌組合所做的工作正在取得積極的成果。我們預計這將繼續作為2025年剩餘時間及以後的成長平台。

Turning to e-commerce. This channel has rebounded since our reset earlier in the year. We are seeing the benefits of our updated go-to-market approach, coupled with the refreshed talent and expertise in our team. We generated sequential improvement within e-commerce sales in the third quarter. There is still room for further improvement, and we see upside momentum heading into fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026.

轉向電子商務。該頻道自今年稍早調整以來已經反彈。我們正在看到更新的市場推廣策略的好處，再加上我們團隊中煥然一新的人才和專業知識。第三季度，我們的電子商務銷售額實現了環比成長。仍有進一步改進的空間，我們預計到 2025 年第四季和 2026 年將保持上升勢頭。

In digital water, flow continues to exhibit very strong growth. We recently launched the initial trial of the leak protection service our new recurring revenue model subscription service. While it is too early to share any results, interest in a flow subscription is very strong, and we expect this to be a meaningful unlock in both the consumer and insurance channels. We believe Connected Water will serve as a growth engine for years to come, given its differentiated value proposition and potential to significantly decrease one of the largest drivers around housing affordability, insurance costs.

在數位水領域，流量持續呈現強勁成長動能。我們最近推出了洩漏防護服務的初步試用版，這是我們新的經常性收入模式訂閱服務。雖然現在分享任何結果還為時過早，但人們對流量訂閱的興趣非常濃厚，我們預計這將對消費者和保險管道都產生重大影響。我們相信，鑑於互聯水務具有差異化的價值主張，並且有潛力大幅降低住房負擔能力的最大驅動因素之一——保險成本，它將在未來幾年成為成長引擎。

In outdoors, we continue to execute well in the softer market environment. Sales were $345 million, roughly flat versus third quarter of 2024. We estimate that our segment point-of-sale outperformed our end market by over 300 basis points, with market outperformance across our brands.

在戶外市場，我們在疲軟的市場環境下依然保持良好的表現。銷售額為 3.45 億美元，與 2024 年第三季基本持平。我們估計，我們的細分市場銷售點表現比終端市場高出 300 多個基點，我們旗下所有品牌的市場表現均優於終端市場。

In LARSON, the rollout of our retail aisle reset helped drive double-digit sales growth in the third quarter. Our new approach to innovating and marketing storm doors drove a strong consumer response including point of sale, which was up high single digits versus a roughly flat market. This initiative also received external recognition.

在 LARSON，我們零售通道重新佈局的推出，幫助推動了第三季兩位數的銷售成長。我們採用全新的創新和行銷防風門的方法，獲得了消費者的強烈反響，包括銷售點，銷售額實現了接近兩位數的增長，而市場整體則基本持平。這項措施也獲得了外界的認可。

Earlier this month, Lowe's named LARSON, its 2025 Vendor Partner of the Year for the Lowe's Millwork division. This is a significant honor and a proof point of the underlying investment thesis in LARSON and the ability of Fortune Brands to drive value through its disciplined and returns-focused capital allocation strategy.

本月初，勞氏宣布 LARSON 為 2025 年度勞氏木工部門最佳供應商合作夥伴。這是莫大的榮譽，也是對 LARSON 投資理念的有力證明，以及 Fortune Brands 透過其嚴謹且以回報為導向的資本配置策略創造價值的能力的證明。

Therma-Tru strongly outperformed its category with point-of-sale share gains in both wholesale and retail. Although net sales decreased in the third quarter, this was primarily due to the absence of the usual fall inventory build. However, strong customer orders in early October suggest that this decline has not continued into the fourth quarter.

Therma-Tru 在批發和零售通路的銷售點份額均大幅成長，遠超過同類產品。儘管第三季淨銷售額有所下降，但這主要是由於往年秋季庫存積壓的缺失所致。然而，10月初強勁的客戶訂單表明，這種下滑趨勢並未延續到第四季。

In Q3, a significant milestone was reached in the American fiberglass door coalitions case against Chinese fiberglass door panel imports. The court has put in place preliminary countervailing subsidy duties ranging from 50% to 900% on Chinese fiberglass door panel imports. The US government continues its investigation and a final decision is expected in Q1 of 2026. We expect to see the benefit of this government action in addition to tariffs as Chinese inventory in the market is consumed.

第三季度，美國玻璃纖維門聯盟針對中國玻璃纖維門板進口的訴訟案取得了重大進展。法院已對中國進口玻璃纖維門板徵收50%至900%的初步反補貼稅。美國政府仍在繼續調查，預計將於 2026 年第一季做出最終決定。我們預計，隨著市場上中國庫存的消耗，除了關稅之外，這項政府措施也將帶來好處。

Fiberon performed well in the third quarter. In September, we recorded the highest monthly sellout for the year. Fiberon saw sales growth in the third quarter versus last year in both retail and wholesale, with strong point-of-sale outperformance in wholesale.

Fiberon在第三季表現出色。9月份，我們創下了全年最高的月度銷售紀錄。Fiberon 第三季零售和批發銷售額均較去年同期有所成長，其中批發銷售點的業績表現尤為強勁。

Our outdoor brands benefit from their vertically integrated US manufacturing presence, giving them an advantage over import reliant competitors. We expect to see the benefits of our North American footprint to become more apparent in 2026.

我們的戶外品牌受益於其在美國的垂直整合製造體系，這使它們比依賴進口的競爭對手更具優勢。我們預計到 2026 年，我們在北美的業務佈局所帶來的益處將更加明顯。

Turning now to security. Our Security segment also made progress in the third quarter. Sales were $186 million, up 5%, building off of many of the initiatives we have highlighted last quarter with further momentum expected in the coming quarters. The Master Lock and Century Safe brand campaigns continue to build upon our industry-leading awareness and drive consumer engagement. During the quarter, we secured several new retail placements in a variety of outlets, and across multiple price points as competitive products are proving to be inferior alternatives to our iconic and trusted brands. We expect to see the benefit of these retail wins in the fourth quarter and into 2026.

接下來談談安全問題。我們的安全業務部門在第三季也取得了進展。銷售額達 1.86 億美元，成長 5%，這得益於我們上個季度重點推出的許多舉措，預計未來幾季將保持進一步的成長動能。Master Lock 和 Century Safe 品牌推廣活動持續鞏固我們業界領先的品牌知名度，並推動消費者參與。本季度，我們在各種零售通路和多個價格點上獲得了多個新的零售位置，因為競爭產品已被證明是比我們標誌性和值得信賴的品牌更差的替代品。我們預計這些零售業務的成功將在第四季以及2026年帶來效益。

Finally, the recent Prime Day exceeded our expectations, and we have gained share in the growing e-commerce channel throughout 2025.

最後，最近的 Prime Day 超出了我們的預期，我們在 2025 年將持續在不斷增長的電子商務管道中獲得份額。

As we look toward the end of the year and 2026, we are confident that we will see growth due to our focus on strategic execution. Digital security solutions are also gaining traction and we see a robust pipeline of opportunities for both residential and commercial applications. Recently, our Yale Assure Lock two received accolades, including being named Best Smart Lock by CNET and the Spruce. The launch of the Yellow Smart Lock with Matter designed for Google Home is also delivering encouraging early results.

展望今年年底和 2026 年，我們有信心，由於我們專注於策略執行，我們將實現成長。數位安全解決方案也越來越受歡迎，我們看到住宅和商業應用領域都蘊藏著巨大的發展機會。最近，我們的 Yale Assure Lock 2 獲得了多項讚譽，其中包括被 CNET 和 Spruce 評為最佳智慧鎖。與 Matter 合作推出的專為 Google Home 設計的 Yellow Smart Lock 也取得了令人鼓舞的初步成果。

Turning now to our full digital portfolio. Our digital portfolio continues to scale, and we're making strong progress. We now have over 5 million registered users across our digital platforms with strong momentum in new device activations. For digital overall, we have full conviction in the strength of our product portfolio and its ability to deliver differentiated, sustained growth over the long term.

接下來，讓我們來看看我們的完整數位產品組合。我們的數位產品組合持續擴大，並且我們取得了顯著進展。目前，我們的數位平台註冊用戶已超過 500 萬，新設備啟動量也呈現強勁成長動能。就數位化整體而言，我們對我們的產品組合的實力充滿信心，相信它能夠在長期內實現差異化、持續成長。

With respect to flow, we continue to add and expand partnerships with insurance companies and the data shared regarding the product's effectiveness for both homeowners and insurers continues to affirm its significant impact.

在流量方面，我們不斷增加和擴大與保險公司的合作關係，並且分享的有關該產品對房主和保險公司有效性的數據也繼續證實了其重大影響。

For Yale, we won several new retail placements and have a significant number of partnerships, which we are starting to scale more broadly.

對於耶魯大學來說，我們贏得了幾個新的零售管道，並建立了大量的合作關係，我們正在開始更廣泛地擴大這些合作關係。

Across our digital businesses, we are increasingly leveraging our well-established advantaged channel relationships with builders, retailers and wholesalers to drive new opportunities. The fundamentals of our digital strategy are sound, and we remain confident in the potential of this growth platform. We are on track to approach $300 million in annualized sales by the end of 2025 with continued growth into 2026.

在我們的數位業務中，我們正越來越多地利用我們與建築商、零售商和批發商之間已建立的有利通路關係來推動新的機會。我們的數位化策略基礎穩固，我們對這成長平台的潛力仍然充滿信心。我們預計在 2025 年底實現年化銷售額接近 3 億美元，並預計在 2026 年繼續成長。

To recap, the third quarter was another strong demonstration of Fortune Brands ability to execute with discipline, respond with agility and deliver above-market performance. Our teams are advancing our transformation, strengthening our brands and investing in platforms that create new avenues for growth.

總而言之，第三季再次有力地證明了 Fortune Brands 具備嚴謹的執行力、敏捷的反應能力以及超越市場平均水平的業績。我們的團隊正在推動轉型，加強品牌建設，並投資於能夠創造新成長途徑的平台。

Looking forward to the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect to deliver year-over-year sales growth and market outperformance and expect to see the continued benefits of the initiatives that we have detailed in the call.

展望 2025 年第四季度，我們預計銷售額將同比增長，市場表現將優於預期，並有望繼續看到我們在電話會議中詳細介紹的各項舉措帶來的益處。

Throughout the recent periods of external uncertainty and market disruption, we have remained focused on what we can control, driving our most strategic investments continuing to support our leading brands and strategically reshaping our business to be leaner, stronger and more agile. These moments of challenge have been opportunities for us to optimize our structure sharpen our priorities and position ourselves for accelerated growth when conditions improve. Today, we stand not only resilient but designed for performance and built for the future.

在最近這段外部環境不確定和市場動盪的時期，我們始終專注於我們能夠控制的事情，推動我們最具戰略意義的投資，繼續支持我們的領先品牌，並從戰略上重塑我們的業務，使其更精簡、更強大、更靈活。這些挑戰時刻為我們提供了優化組織結構、明確優先事項、為條件改善時加速發展做好準備的機會。今天，我們不僅擁有強大的韌性，而且設計精良，面向未來。

I will now turn the call over to Jon.

現在我將把通話交給喬恩。

Thank you, Nick. Before I begin, I want to thank those who participated in our recent investor perception study. Your insights will inform our Investor Relations practices, and we are actively working to implement improvements. As part of this effort, we are reviewing how we consistently present period comparisons, certain performance indicators and growth narrative, particularly in areas like digital innovation and other key portions of our portfolio, we'll look to incorporate these enhancements beginning next quarter.

謝謝你，尼克。在開始之前，我要感謝那些參與我們近期投資人認知調查的人。您的真知灼見將為我們的投資者關係實踐提供參考，我們正在積極努力進行改進。作為這項工作的一部分，我們正在審查我們如何持續地呈現期間比較、某些業績指標和成長情況，尤其是在數位創新和我們投資組合的其他關鍵部分等領域，我們將從下個季度開始考慮納入這些改進措施。

As a reminder, my comments will focus on results before charges and gains to best reflect ongoing business performance. Additionally, comparisons will be made against the same period last year, unless otherwise noted.

再次提醒，我的評論將側重於扣除費用和收益之前的業績，以更好地反映持續的業務表現。此外，除非另有說明，否則將與去年同期進行比較。

In the third quarter, we again delivered solid results against a soft market backdrop. We delivered sales of $1.1 billion, roughly flat year-over-year. Our results reflect lower volumes compared to last year which were partially offset by strategic pricing actions implemented earlier this year. Sales were up 1%, excluding the impact of the China business. Consolidated operating income was $206 million, down 5% compared to last year, largely due to lower volumes and higher cost of goods, partially offset by pricing lower incentive compensation and disciplined cost management. Operating margin declined 80 basis points to 17.9% due to lower volumes and product mix in outdoors and security. EPS was $1.09.

第三季度，在疲軟的市場環境下，我們再次取得了穩健的表現。我們實現了 11 億美元的銷售額，與去年同期基本持平。我們的業績反映出銷量較去年有所下降，但今年稍早實施的策略定價措施部分抵銷了銷量下降的影響。不計中國業務的影響，銷售額成長了1%。綜合營業收入為 2.06 億美元，比去年下降 5%，主要原因是銷售下降和商品成本上升，部分被較低的激勵性薪酬和嚴格的成本管理所抵消。由於戶外和安防產品的銷售和產品組合下降，營業利潤率下降了 80 個基點，至 17.9%。每股收益為 1.09 美元。

Turning to our segments, beginning with water. Sales were $619 million, down 3%, reflecting lower volume, partially offset by price. Excluding China, our sales were roughly flat on a year-over-year basis, reflecting low single-digit POS growth offset by lower inventory build compared to prior year and modest inventory destocking in Canada.

接下來我們進入正題，先從水開始。銷售額為 6.19 億美元，下降 3%，反映出銷量下降，但價格部分抵消了銷量下降的影響。除中國以外，我們的銷售額與去年同期基本持平，這反映出 POS 銷售額的個位數低增長被與上年相比較低的庫存增加以及加拿大適度的庫存減少所抵消。

Water's operating income was $151 million, down $5 million compared to last year. Operating margin was 24.4%, down 20 basis points compared to last year, reflecting our efforts to strategically balance price realizations and operating costs. We continue to expect full year water margins to be in the range of 23% to 24%.

Water公司的營業收入為1.51億美元，比去年減少了500萬美元。營業利潤率為 24.4%，比去年下降 20 個基點，反映了我們在策略上平衡價格實現和營運成本的努力。我們仍然預計全年水資源盈餘將在 23% 至 24% 的範圍內。

Turning to outdoors. Sales were $345 million, roughly flat compared to last year, with pricing offsetting lower volumes. Sales benefited from the momentum from the LARSON perfect isle reset and continued share gains of Fiberon. Point-of-sale increased low single digits versus a market that was down low single digits. This is partially offset by lower seasonal channel inventory builds in Therma-Tru in the third quarter as wholesale customers reduced orders in response to weaker external data points. We are encouraged that orders have increased entering the fourth quarter and are trending higher year-over-year. Outdoor's operating income was $53 million down $8 million compared to last year, with operating margin of 15.5%, a decrease of 250 basis points from the third quarter of 2024. These results reflect the impact of lower volumes higher material costs and product mix, partially offset by price. We expect to maintain margins at similar levels in the fourth quarter. And for the full year, we expect segment margins in the 13% to 14% range.

轉向戶外。銷售額為 3.45 億美元，與去年基本持平，價格上漲抵消了銷量下降的影響。LARSON 完美貨架重置帶來的銷售動能以及 Fiberon 持續的市佔率成長，都促進了銷售額的提升。銷售點銷售額實現了個位數百分比的成長，而市場整體卻出現了個位數百分比的下滑。由於批發客戶因外部資料疲軟而減少了訂單，Therma-Tru 第三季季節性通路庫存增加減少，部分抵消了上述影響。我們很高興地看到，進入第四季後訂單量有所增加，並且年比呈上升趨勢。戶外業務的營業收入為 5,300 萬美元，比去年減少了 800 萬美元，營業利潤率為 15.5%，比 2024 年第三季下降了 250 個基點。這些結果反映了銷售下降、材料成本上升和產品組合變化的影響，但價格部分抵消了這些影響。我們預計第四季利潤率將維持在類似水準。我們預計全年各業務部門的利潤率將在 13% 至 14% 之間。

In Security, sales were $186 million, up 5%, with price offsetting lower volumes with strong growth in e-commerce and the commercial business. Our Master It, brand campaign for Master Lock is resonating, driving a double-digit increase in brand engagement and contributing to improved sell-through. Security operating income was $33 million down $1 million year-over-year. Operating margin was 17.8%, down 150 basis points versus third quarter 2024, largely due to product mix as well as increased investments in product development during the quarter, consistent with our strategy to invest in future growth throughout the cycle. For the full year, we expect margins in the 15.5% to 16.5% range.

在安防領域，銷售額為 1.86 億美元，成長 5%，價格上漲抵消了銷售下降的影響，電子商務和商業業務實現了強勁增長。我們為 Master Lock 發起的「Master It」品牌推廣活動引起了廣泛共鳴，推動品牌參與度實現了兩位數的成長，並有助於提高銷售額。安保業務營業收入為 3,300 萬美元，年減 100 萬美元。營業利潤率為 17.8%，比 2024 年第三季下降 150 個基點，這主要是由於產品組合的變化以及本季對產品開發投入的增加，這與我們在整個週期中投資未來成長的策略是一致的。我們預計全年利潤率將在 15.5% 至 16.5% 之間。

Turning to the balance sheet. We are managing our capital structure with the objective of balancing our cost of capital, returns and overall flexibility. We ended the quarter with cash of $224 million. Net debt stood at $2.4 billion with net debt-to-EBITDA leverage of 2.7 times, consistent with our deleveraging objective. We remain on track to end the year with net debt to EBITDA at the upper end of our previous guidance range of 2.2 times to 2.5 times. Free cash flow in the quarter was $177 million. We now expect full year free cash flow of $400 million to $420 million, reflecting reduced operating income, higher working capital levels and higher cash restructuring charges compared to last year. Additionally, our headquarters transition continues to progress ahead of our original timetable. As a result, during the quarter, we updated the range for total restructuring costs related to the headquarter transition to $100 million to $120 million. The increase relative to our previous range reflects the faster completion of the transition with higher estimates for severance, accelerated depreciation, lease termination costs and other refinements. We remain opportunistic with our capital allocation, balancing shareholder returns with investments to drive growth and M&A opportunities that align with our strategy.

接下來看一下資產負債表。我們正在管理我們的資本結構，目標是在資本成本、回報和整體靈活性之間取得平衡。本季末，我們持有現金2.24億美元。淨負債為 24 億美元，淨負債與 EBITDA 的比率為 2.7 倍，符合我們的去槓桿化目標。我們仍有望在年底前將淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率控制在先前預期範圍 2.2 倍至 2.5 倍的上限。本季自由現金流為1.77億美元。我們現在預計全年自由現金流為 4 億美元至 4.2 億美元，反映出與去年相比，營業收入減少、營運資本水準提高以及現金重組費用增加。此外，我們的總部過渡工作也繼續提前於原計劃進行。因此，本季我們將與總部過渡相關的重組總成本範圍更新為 1 億至 1.2 億美元。相對於我們先前的預期，此成長反映了過渡期的更快完成，包括更高的遣散費、加速折舊、租賃終止成本和其他改進措施的估算。我們將繼續採取機會主義的資本配置策略，在股東回報與推動成長和符合我們策略的併購機會的投資之間取得平衡。

Before turning to our outlook, I'll provide an update on our tariff exposure. As Nick mentioned, we are still on track to fully offset the anticipated impact of tariffs, both in 2025 and on an annualized basis in 2026. Implemented changes in tariff rates and rules since our last call have only had a de minimis impact to our unmitigated tariff exposure, but the overall tariff environment has contributed to a more cautious consumer and margin pressures. As a reminder, we have worked to get our spend from China down significantly and expect to be around 10% of cost of goods sold by the end of the year. Our predominantly North American supply chain remains a differentiated competitive advantage.

在展望未來之前，我將先介紹我們面臨的關稅風險。正如尼克所提到的，我們仍然有望在 2025 年和 2026 年按年計算完全抵消關稅的預期影響。自上次通話以來，關稅稅率和規則的實施變化對我們未緩解的關稅風險敞口的影響微乎其微，但整體關稅環境導致消費者更加謹慎，利潤率面臨壓力。再次提醒大家，我們已經努力大幅降低在中國的支出，預計到年底將控制在銷售成本的 10% 左右。我們以北美為主的供應鏈仍然是我們的差異化競爭優勢。

Turning now to our outlook. We are pleased with our year-to-date performance amidst the dynamic macro environment. As today's press release details, we are narrowing our EPS guidance and anticipate finishing the year near the low end of our prior range reflecting the impact of mix and lower volumes within an uncertain end market. The full details of our updated guidance can be found in our press release.

現在來談談我們的展望。在動態的宏觀環境下，我們對今年迄今的業績感到滿意。正如今天的新聞稿中所述，我們正在縮小每股收益預期範圍，預計今年年底將接近先前預期範圍的下限，這反映了產品組合和不確定的終端市場銷售下降的影響。有關更新後指南的全部詳情，請參閱我們的新聞稿。

As we look beyond 2025, we are actively planning for a variety of scenarios. While it is impossible to predict the exact timing of a demand inflection, we continue to believe it is a matter of when, not if, and when the demand inflects. We believe we are uniquely positioned for above-market growth.

展望2025年以後，我們正積極規劃應對各種可能的情況。雖然無法預測需求拐點的確切時間，但我們仍然認為需求轉折點何時出現只是時間問題，而不是是否會出現的問題。我們相信，我們擁有獨特的優勢，能夠實現高於市場平均的成長。

While we will not be providing guidance assumptions for 2026 at this point, we are able to share some initial thoughts. Our base planning assumptions center around a flat market overall. Importantly, we believe we are well positioned for our sales to outperform this market estimate based on the meaningful opportunities for which we have line of sight. Through our transformation, we are continuing to identify efficiencies and continuous improvement opportunities throughout our business and remain confident in our ability to drive value even in a dynamic market environment.

雖然我們目前不會提供 2026 年的指導性假設，但我們可以分享一些初步想法。我們的基本規劃假設是整體市場保持穩定。重要的是，我們相信，基於我們目前掌握的重要機遇，我們的銷售額將超過市場預期。透過轉型，我們不斷在整個業務中尋找提高效率和持續改進的機會，並且對即使在動態的市場環境中創造價值的能力也充滿信心。

In summary, our third quarter results once again demonstrate the resilience of Fortune Brands portfolio, the strength of our brands and the effectiveness of our advantaged capabilities. We are laser-focused on executing our strategy while investing in the innovations and capabilities that will fuel our long-term growth.

總而言之，我們第三季的業績再次證明了財富品牌組合的韌性、我們品牌的實力以及我們優勢能力的有效性。我們正全力以赴地執行我們的策略，同時投資於能夠推動我們長期成長的創新和能力建設。

I'm confident in our ability to continue executing at a high level as we close out 2025 and look ahead to 2026.

我對我們在 2025 年末和 2026 年繼續保持高水準的執行力充滿信心。

I will now pass the call back to Curt to open the call for questions.

現在我將把電話轉回給科特，讓他開始接受提問。

Thanks, Jon. That concludes our prepared remarks. We will now begin taking a limited number of questions. Since there may be a number of you who would like to ask a question, I will ask that you limit your initial questions to two and then reenter the queue to ask additional questions. I will now turn the call back over to the operator to begin the question-and-answer session.

謝謝你，喬恩。我們的發言稿到此結束。現在我們將開始接受有限數量的問題。由於可能有不少人想提問，我請你們先提問兩個問題，然後再重新排隊提問。現在我將把電話轉回給接線員，開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊‧馬克拉里，高盛集團。

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. My first question is on the pricing strategy. Nick, thank you for all the comments on that and the approach that you've taken there this year. I guess given that, can you talk a bit about how the outcomes have come together? Have they been in line with what you have expected as you approach the pricing? And how you're thinking about this going forward?

謝謝。大家下午好。我的第一個問題是關於定價策略。尼克，感謝你對此提出的所有意見以及你今年採取的方法。有鑑於此，您能否談談最終結果是如何形成的？價格是否符合您的預期？那麼，你對未來有何打算？

Sure, Sue. I'd be happy to. Look, as we said, I think, on our prior calls and for you've tries for a long time, as you know, from prior inflationary periods, we maintain very disciplined approach to pricing. And so as we think about it, our goal is as category leader to lead where we have to lead but do it in a clear, transparent and incremental way. And if we feel like if we do it and we do it well and we do it early, then we can do it in small increments. And if you recall, 2021 through that inflationary period, we were also taking kind of single, mid-single-digit pricing because we were doing it early and we were covering our cost.

當然可以，蘇。我很樂意。正如我們之前所說，我認為，在我們之前的電話會議中，而且您也知道，從之前的通貨膨脹時期開始，我們一直堅持非常嚴格的定價方法。因此，當我們思考這個問題時，我們的目標是作為品類領導者，在我們必須引領的領域中發揮領導作用，但要以清晰、透明和漸進的方式做到這一點。如果我們覺得如果我們做這件事，而且做得好，並且做得早，那麼我們就可以分小步進行。如果你還記得的話，在 2021 年的通貨膨脹時期，我們也採取了個位數或中等個位數的定價策略，因為我們做得早，而且我們能夠收回成本。

Now I will say before I touch further on pricing, I mean, we do a lot before we get to pricing. We work our supply chain really hard. We've pursued a lot of cost-out initiatives. And then what we're not able to mitigate through that, we turn to pricing. And in the case of 2025 with the tariffs, we did that very early on. And we said consistently since that time that between all of those actions, we will cover off on tax. We've covered off on tariffs.

在進一步討論定價之前，我想說，在談到定價之前，我們做了很多工作。我們對供應鏈的運作非常努力。我們推行了許多降低成本的措施。如果上述方法無法緩解問題，我們就只能求助於定價。至於 2025 年的關稅問題，我們很早就著手處理了。我們從那時起就一直表示，所有這些措施加起來，足以支付稅款。我們已經討論過關稅問題了。

And we do. I've read reports that we're behind in our second round. There is no second round. We did it early, as I said, in the beginning of the year, we got it done. It's behind us. And really, what we're doing now is we're focusing our enhanced data capabilities and actually looking at places that we can lean into the market and drive volume. Where are those opportunities to promote, understand the elasticities. If we have further CI, we're going to hunt for more of those opportunities, and we think that's what is driving a lot of the share gain that we're seeing.

我們確實如此。我看到有報道稱我們在第二輪比賽中落後了。沒有第二輪。正如我所說，我們在年初就完成了這項工作。一切都過去了。而實際上，我們現在正在做的，是專注於發揮我們增強的數據能力，並尋找我們可以深入市場並推動銷售成長的領域。升遷的機會在哪裡？要了解其中的彈性。如果我們有進一步的競爭優勢，我們將尋找更多這樣的機會，我們認為這正是我們所看到的市場份額成長的主要驅動因素。

And so I'd say we've been consistent on it through this tariff period, but we've been insistent consistent on it through '21, through the inflationary period in '17. And what we find is sometimes it takes a while for others to follow. And that may mean that, that causes a headwind for us for a quarter or two, and that's fine. We're playing a long game, and we're playing to gain share over the long run, and we'll do it in the highest integrity way for ourselves and our customers. And I think that's exactly what's playing out now.

因此，我認為我們在整個關稅時期都堅持了一致的做法，而且在 2021 年，在 2017 年的通貨膨脹時期，我們也堅持了一致的做法。我們發現，有時需要一段時間，其他人才會跟進。這意味著，這可能會在未來一兩個季度為我們帶來不利影響，但這沒關係。我們著眼於長遠，力求長期獲得市場份額，我們將以最高的誠信為自己和客戶實現這一目標。我認為這正是現在正在發生的事情。

Okay. That's great color. And maybe building on that One of the things that Fortune has historically done really well is outperforming the market and gaining share in periods of weakness. And it certainly sounds like from your comments that is coming through again. But if it's something that differentiates you today is this investment that you do have in data, write a lot more information and nuances of understanding things. How is that helping you to better target those share gains and perhaps even better sustain and further grow the business even as things normalize and we eventually return to market growth.

好的。顏色真好看。或許可以以此為基礎，《財星》雜誌歷來做得非常好的一點就是在市場疲軟時期跑贏大盤並擴大市場份額。從你的評論來看，這種情況似乎又出現了。但如果你今天與眾不同的地方在於你對數據的投入，那就寫下更多關於理解事物的資訊和細微差別。這如何幫助您更好地實現市場份額成長，甚至在市場恢復正常、最終重回成長軌道時，更好地維持和進一步發展業務？

Yes. Look, it's a great question. It's a very exciting part of our strategy. I'll say, as you know, we've been on this broader digital journey now for a little more than half a decade. And I'd say the greatest thing about that, whether it's product, whether it is digital initiatives that are customer-facing or internally facing, the whole team is digitally fluent at this point. I'm not going to say we're digital natives, but we can get around the table and we can discuss digital innovations and understand them. And that's allowed us to move very quickly, particularly as some of these AI tools have become available. And so I think specific to your question around something like pricing, I mean, I remember several years ago when we first invested to build our pricing analytics, and I think they were best-in-class at the time. Today, I say that is pretty antiquated compared to what we have today, which is a much more precise and be much faster moving, where we can really get insights on a SKU level.

是的。你看，這是一個很好的問題。這是我們策略中非常令人興奮的一部分。如你所知，我們走上這條更廣泛的數位轉型之路已經超過五年了。我認為最棒的是，無論是產品，還是面向客戶或面向內部的數位化舉措，目前整個團隊都精通數位化。我不會說我們是數位原住民，但我們可以圍坐在一起，討論數位創新並理解它們。這使得我們能夠快速發展，尤其是一些人工智慧工具已經可用。所以，針對你提出的定價方面的問題，我記得幾年前我們首次投資建立定價分析系統時，我認為當時它是業內最好的。今天，我認為這種方法與我們現在所擁有的方法相比已經相當過時了，我們現在的方法更加精確，速度也更快，我們可以真正獲得 SKU 等級的洞察。

And some of the new leadership that we have here with our headquarters transformation has brought in just world-class talent. And so we're getting sharper and foster all of the time. That's on the pricing side. We're also able to do things like customer and consumer insights literally in hours where it might have taken us weeks. So once you understand exactly where your customer is, where your consumer is, what their shopping behaviors are, what their switching behaviors are and how to target them, it makes us a much more fierce machine.

我們總部轉型後，新領導階層引進了一些世界一流的人才。因此，我們一直在不斷進步和培養。這是價格方面的問題。我們也能夠在短短幾個小時內完成原本可能需要幾週才能完成的客戶和消費者洞察等工作。所以，一旦你確切地了解你的客戶在哪裡，你的消費者在哪裡，他們的購物行為是什麼，他們的轉換行為是什麼，以及如何瞄準他們，這就能讓我們成為一台更強大的機器。

Now for all of that said, I think we're just at the early innings of doing this. We've got some great people and some great capabilities in place. We're seeing some unbelievable talent as we continue to hire up as part of our transition and transformation to the new headquarters, but I think it's early innings for what you'll see us do with these capabilities.

綜上所述，我認為我們目前還處於這項工作的初期階段。我們擁有優秀的人才和強大的能力。隨著我們向新總部過渡和轉型，我們不斷招募人才，也因此發現了一些令人難以置信的人才。但我認為，我們利用這些能力所能取得的成就還只是冰山一角。

Yeah, okay, that's great. Thank you for the color and good luck with the quarter.

好的，太好了。謝謝你帶來的色彩，祝你本季交易順利。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

Michael Rehaut，摩根大通。

Thanks, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. First, I wanted to hit -- and I'm sorry if I missed this in the prepared remarks, but just to get a dial in a little bit more in terms of what was driving the 100 basis point decline in segment margin guidance for outdoor and security, particularly as we're kind of sitting here at the end of the third quarter, kind of curious what's changed in the last 90 days to drive that type of decline? And if the third quarter margins in either segments in part reflected maybe some of that change in outlook or performance?

謝謝，下午好。謝謝您回答我的問題。首先，我想強調一點——如果我在準備的發言稿中遺漏了這一點，我深表歉意——但我想更深入地探討一下是什麼因素導致了戶外和安防業務部門利潤率預期下降 100 個基點，尤其是在我們即將結束第三季度之際，我很好奇在過去的 90 天裡發生了什麼變化導致了這種程度的下降導致了這種程度的下降？如果這兩個業務部門第三季的利潤率在一定程度上反映了前景或業績的這種變化呢？

Sure, Mike. I'm happy to try to take it at the highest level, and then Jon can round it out if you'd like some more detail. In Outdoors, a very simple story. By the way, we saw great performance out of that segment. particularly at the point-of-sale level. What we did not see was the usual seasonal inventory build that you see at this time of year in preparation for the next building season. I've seen this happen once before where we don't see that build, and that tends to be pretty margin-rich product relative to the rest of the portfolio. So outdoors pretty much just a mix inside of that inventory build. I'm not particularly concerned about it because that inventory will have to be built to serve that market at some point.

當然可以，麥克。我很樂意嘗試從最高層面來探討這個問題，如果您需要更多細節，Jon 可以補充完善。在戶外，這是一個非常簡單的故事。順便說一句，我們看到該細分市場表現出色，尤其是在銷售點層面。我們沒有看到每年這個時候為了迎接下一個建築旺季而通常會出現的季節性庫存增加情況。我以前也遇到過這種情況，當時我們沒有看到這種成長，而相對於投資組合中的其他產品而言，這往往是一款利潤率相當高的產品。所以戶外部分基本上就是庫存配置的混合。我並不太擔心，因為遲早都需要建立庫存來滿足市場需求。

And I mentioned there will be at some point next year. And in security, I'd say it's a variation on that theme. We saw a strong commercial performance, but we did see some backing off from our B2B business. And yet, we maintained our R&D investment at a higher level than prior, and we maintained marketing investment at a higher level than prior particularly with our new Master campaign, which is doing really, really well in notwithstanding a bit of a mix shift there. We did not want to pull back on those investments.

我之前也提到過，明年某個時候會有這件事。在安全領域，我認為這是這一主題的變體。我們看到了強勁的商業業績，但我們的 B2B 業務確實出現了一些下滑。然而，我們仍然保持了比以往更高的研發投入，並且也保持了比以往更高的行銷投入，尤其是在我們新的主推廣活動中，儘管產品組合略有變化，但該活動仍然取得了非常好的效果。我們不想撤回這些投資。

Jon, if you want to add anything?

喬恩，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Maybe just to -- maybe put some numbers around it for you on the inventory piece for Outdoors, Mike. If you look at last year, the seasonal inventory builds, typically, we do see low double-digit increases in that channel inventory in Q3. This year, it actually went the other way, and we saw low double-digit declines. And so to Nick's point, that's something that we'll have to reverse. And so it is a bit of a Q3 dynamic. As we go into Q4, not sure if that's going to reverse then or into next year. But like we mentioned in the prepared remarks, October has seen some signs of early signs of that reversal. And so we're encouraged that, that is on the comm.

或許只是想——或許可以幫你把戶外用品的庫存清單列成一些數字，麥克。如果回顧去年，季節性庫存通常會增加，我們在第三季確實會看到該通路庫存出現兩位數的低成長。今年情況恰恰相反，我們看到了兩位數的低跌幅。所以正如尼克所說，這是我們必須扭轉的局面。所以這有點像是第三季的動態變化。進入第四季度，還不確定這種情況是否會在那時或明年逆轉。但正如我們在準備好的演講稿中提到的，10 月已經出現了一些這種逆轉的早期跡象。因此，我們感到鼓舞，這在溝通中得到了體現。

Okay. I appreciate that. Maybe I'll follow up a little later on that as well. Secondly, I wanted to take a step back or shift the question to digital. Nick, I believe you said that you're on track to hit the $300 million annualized rate run rate by the end of this year. I wanted to get a sense kind of two parts here. One, tried to mentalize those sales between plumbing and security number one? And secondly, I know you've thrown out, I think, I want to say by 2030, but I could be wrong there, the $1 billion sales goal really would love though to try and understand how to think about the growth in the business. I'm not asking necessarily for guidance, but just directionally or degree of magnitude how to think about growth in 2026, '27 off of, I guess, if you did $300 million, maybe that would be growth technically, but how to think about that annualized run rate, let's say, going forward.

好的。我很感激。或許稍後我還會就此進行一些跟進。其次，我想退一步，或者說把問題轉移到數位化領域。尼克，我記得你說過，你預計在今年年底前實現 3 億美元的年化收入目標。我想了解這裡存在的兩個面向。第一，試著把管道和保全服務之間的銷售情況連結起來？其次，我知道您已經提出，我想說的是到 2030 年，但我可能錯了，10 億美元的銷售目標，我真的很想了解如何看待業務成長。我並不是一定要尋求指導，只是想了解在 2026 年和 2027 年，如果以 3 億美元的收入為基礎，應該如何看待成長的方向或幅度。從技術上講，這或許可以算是成長，但該如何看待未來的年化運作率呢？

All right. I'll just start by kind of couple of things to Heron and say some stuff that's some what you're looking for. So on the first part, yes, we're approaching that $300 million annualized, which is what we were hoping to see at this point. And also I think on the prior call, we said we expect it to end this year around $250 million. We're actually tracking a bit ahead of that. So really satisfied with the way that business continues to develop. Very strong growth on the float side, continue to be extremely excited about the opportunities there.

好的。我先跟赫倫說幾句，說說一些你可能想知道的事。所以第一部分，是的，我們正接近每年 3 億美元的目標，而這正是我們目前所希望看到的。而且我認為在之前的電話會議上，我們也說過預計今年年底營收將達到 2.5 億美元左右。實際上，我們的進度略微領先於預期。我對公司目前的業務發展狀況非常滿意。浮存金業務成長非常強勁，我對該領域的機會依然感到非常興奮。

And we just very, very recently launched our subscription service, which is the leak protection service, which we think takes a huge barrier to growth away because even though the value prop of flow is very clear at us very clear to ensure there's still a price barrier for a lot of people. And the research that we said those is they're absolutely happy to pay a monthly subscription, particularly if their insurance savings is even greater than that subscription, right? It's just a win-win-win, a win for us, a win for the insurer, a win for the consumer. And so very excited that, that has now launched, and we'll be back to you as we start to see the data of how that's performing.

我們最近推出了訂閱服務，也就是防漏服務，我們認為這項服務消除了成長的一大障礙，因為儘管流量的價值主張非常明確，但對許多人來說，價格仍然是一個障礙。我們進行的研究表明，他們非常樂意支付月費，特別是如果他們的保險節省金額甚至超過了月費，對吧？這真是三贏的局面，對我們有利，對保險公司有利，對消費者也有利。非常令人興奮的是，這項服務現在已經上線了，我們會盡快向大家報告其運作的數據。

On the Security side, it's -- we're seeing some nice things I referenced some of the progress in my prepared remarks, but I think there's more opportunity to come as we cycle in some of the new products, some of which we've developed with Google and some of the big partnerships that we have signed up, which will roll into 2026.

在安全方面，我們看到了一些不錯的進展。我在準備好的演講稿中提到了一些進展，但我認為隨著一些新產品的推出，未來會有更多機會。其中一些產品是我們與Google合作開發的，還有一些是我們簽署的大型合作協議，這些合作將持續到 2026 年。

One further thing I'll say and then John may give some more color. I think those of you who participated in our recent feedback survey, and it was very helpful. And we understand that people want more dimension around this. And I think over time, we've tried to share anything that we could that is verifiable, repeatable and auditable, like those are our standards for sharing numbers. I understand the desire for more. And so we're going to come back at the beginning part of the year with, I think, just a clear set of metrics that we're going to be reporting to regularly for the digital business. Just if you bear with us hopefully -- and we're taking feedback as to what people are looking for and to the extent we can sure we will.

我再補充一點，然後約翰可能會補充一些細節。我認為參與我們近期回饋調查的各位都非常感激，你們的回饋對我們很有幫助。我們理解人們希望對此有更深入的了解。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們一直努力分享所有可驗證、可重複和可審計的信息，這些就是我們分享數據的標準。我理解人們渴望擁有更多。因此，我認為，我們將在今年年初帶著一套清晰的指標回歸，我們將定期向大家報告數位業務的進度。如果您能耐心等待，我們將不勝感激——我們正在收集大家的回饋意見，了解大家的需求，並盡我們所能滿足大家。

Yes, absolutely, Mike. And just to build on the disclosure for next year, it's when you start looking at 2030 metrics, it's always harder to build the road map to those. And as we build out the framework for reporting, we do want to provide something that is more tangible in the near term that you can look at. And what I would say to your question around the split between security and outdoors, we don't disclose that at the moment, just given the relative size in our overall portfolio, they're both rapidly growing. And so that piece -- and I'll also give you just some broad guidance that neither of them is outsized in the portfolio, there is a good balance between both security and water within that connected build. But we'll provide a broader framework going into next quarter that will be easier to follow going forward.

是的，當然，麥克。再補充明年的揭露，當你開始關注 2030 年的指標時，制定實現這些指標的路線圖總是更難。隨著我們逐步完善報告框架，我們希望在短期內提供一些更具體、更直覺的東西供大家參考。至於你提出的關於安防和戶外業務劃分的問題，我們目前不予公開，只是考慮到它們在我們整體業務組合中的相對規模，它們都在快速增長。因此，這部分——我還要給你一些大致的指導，它們在投資組合中都不算過大，在這個相互關聯的建築中，安全和水資源之間取得了很好的平衡。但我們將在下一季提供一個更廣泛的框架，以便今後更容易遵循。

So just to sum it up, because though is the last part of your question, trending ahead of the $250 million that we gave last quarter, very happy about that, approaching the $300 million annualized fee happy about that and absolutely convicted about the $1 billion by 2030.

總結一下，雖然這是你問題的最後一部分，但我們目前的趨勢超過了上個季度的 2.5 億美元，對此我們非常滿意；我們正接近 3 億美元的年化費用目標，對此我們也很滿意；並且我們絕對有信心在 2030 年前達到 10 億美元。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Philip Ng, Jefferies.

Philip Ng，傑富瑞集團。

Yes, great to hear about how you're -- you've done, you've pushed through your pricing grade for plumbing on the water side, right? It sounds like your peers, Nick are paying low catch up. Does that put you in a position to play offense? Any color on how you're performing by end markets, retail channels? Any early read on like placement by any of these markets that we should think about for 2026?

是的，很高興聽到你那邊的情況——你已經完成了，你已經推進了水管工程的定價等級，對吧？聽起來你的同齡人，尼克，正在努力追趕。這是否讓你處於進攻位置？能否提供一些關於終端市場和零售通路的業績數據？是否有任何關於這些市場在 2026 年的佈局情況的早期預測，值得我們關注？

Sure. Let me take the second part first, and then we'll come back to playing offense, because it's helpful for just crystal clear. We're very happy with the water results. I'll just start there. If I look at the opportunities, to there, we're gaining share, very pleased. Retail gain share across all three majors. We're very pleased. As we said on the last call, we saw opportunity to improve our performance in e-commerce, a new team in place for executing with, I'd say, significantly upgraded capabilities uncovering a lot of opportunities. Happy with the progress, but room to improve. Expect to see that improvement as we come through this year and into next year. as I think about the offense, the answer is absolutely. As we work hard very hard, in fact, to continue to mitigate the impact of tariffs. We're still working the supply chain. We're still working our cost efficiencies. We're going to look to redeploy that where we can to meet the consumer where they are and promote as we can. And so it's not signaling anything dramatic, but with a lot of this effort behind us, we see opportunities to then really sharpen the pencil.

當然。讓我先講第二部分，然後再回到進攻方面，因為這有助於我們把事情講清楚。我們對水質處理結果非常滿意。我就從這裡開始吧。如果我著眼於機遇，我們會在那裡獲得市場份額，對此我非常滿意。零售業務在三大主要市場均取得份額成長。我們非常滿意。正如我們在上次電話會議上所說，我們看到了提升電子商務績效的機會，一支新的團隊已經到位，負責執行，我認為，他們的能力得到了顯著提升，從而發掘出了很多機會。對目前的進展感到滿意，但仍有提升空間。預計隨著今年和明年的推進，我們將看到這種進步。就進攻而言，我的答案是肯定的。事實上，我們正​​在非常努力地繼續減輕關稅的影響。我們仍在努力完善供應鏈。我們仍在努力提高成本效益。我們將盡可能重新部署這些資源，以便在消費者所在的地方與他們互動，並盡可能地進行推廣。所以這並不意味著什麼重大變化，但隨著我們付出的大量努力，我們看到了真正精益求精的機會。

Yes. And one piece that Nick didn't mention in there but I mentioned in the prepared remarks, is House of Rohl. And that continues to see really outsized growth really across the distribution, we're seeing is a lot of strength at the luxury consumer. And within our -- uniting the metric between volume price we're seeing some very good indicators in the luxury segment.

是的。還有一件東西，尼克沒有在演講中提到，但我在準備好的演講稿中提到了，那就是羅爾之家。而且，這種成長勢頭在整個分銷領域都持續強勁，我們看到奢侈品消費者的需求非常旺盛。在我們——將銷售和價格結合起來衡量標準——我們發現奢侈品領域出現了一些非常好的指標。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，絕對的。

Yes. I mean the margin has been stellar. Then Jon, you gave us a little hint that 2026 in terms of the end markets, but you're expecting to outgrow. I want to be great if you could quantify how much, but more importantly, can you flag some of the areas where you think you've had some wins that give you confidence that perhaps you could grow a little faster than the market? And then any directional help how we should think about margins as well?

是的。我的意思是，利潤率一直都非常出色。喬恩，你剛才稍微暗示了一下，就終端市場而言，預計到 2026 年就會實現成長，但你預計會超過這個目標。如果你能量化具體數字，那就太好了。但更重要的是，你能否指出一些你認為已經取得一些成功的領域，這些成功讓你有信心，或許你的成長速度可以比市場更快一些？那麼，關於利潤率，您能否提供一些方向性的指導呢？

Yes. It's still premature to start quantifying things, Phil. We're just working through the 2026 plan right now. We do have some visibility into the market environment, which is where I guided that this year, which has been a slightly down environment, we are looking next year to be largely flat. And so while it's -- that's -- the market backdrop hasn't seen a significant turn.

是的。菲爾，現在開始量化還為時過早。我們目前正在製定2026年計畫。我們對市場環境有一定的了解，因此我預測，今年市場環境略有下滑，而明年市場環境將基本保持穩定。因此，儘管如此，市場背景尚未出現重大轉變。

We are seeing a bit of some constructiveness in the market to keep it flat. We do feel comfortable that we're going to outperform the market. And you could just look at this quarter's results. I think through our largest business unit, Nick just went through a lot of the wins that we're seeing in the marketplace in Q3 and what we're seeing in the early parts of Q4.

我們看到市場出現了一些建設性因素，以維持價格穩定。我們很有信心能夠跑贏大盤。你只要看看本季的業績就知道了。我認為，透過我們最大的業務部門，Nick 詳細闡述了我們在第三季和第四季初期在市場上取得的許多成功。

And we expect those to continue into next year. And if you go across each of our business units, there's individual pieces that provide that confidence. Starting with water. I think Nick just covered off on those. If you go through Outdoors, we've talked about LARSON Perfect Isle. Really, we've seen some good turnarounds at Fiberon in terms of some of our productivity and efficiency there. Therma-Tru, we talked about some of the lack of seasonal inventory builds, which that will start to rebound.

我們預計這種情況會持續到明年。如果你仔細查看我們每個業務部門，你會發現正是這些部門的個別舉措提供了這種信心。從水開始。我覺得尼克剛才已經把這些都說完了。如果你瀏覽戶外版塊，我們會介紹 LARSON Perfect Isle。確實，我們在 Fiberon 的一些生產力和效率方面看到了一些不錯的轉變。我們之前討論過 Therma-Tru 公司季節性庫存不足的問題，這種情況將會開始反彈。

In addition to that, we've also mentioned some of the antidumping tariffs that have been coming into the market in that particular segment, which we also think will be a nice tailwind for us. In Security, we've continued to invest going into next year.

除此之外，我們也提到了一些針對該特定領域即將實施的反傾銷關稅，我們認為這將對我們是一個不錯的順風。在安全領域，我們將持續加大投入，迎接明年的到來。

So we've got some good momentum around our mastered campaign that we feel will continue, the new rollout of our connected products and the Yale Google Smart Locks, I think, are going to be a nice tailwind for us as well. And then you just layer on the connected business and the growth we're seeing in flow and our connected products. So a lot to be excited about going into next year to drive that outperformance.

因此，我們圍繞著已成功開展的行銷活動取得了良好的勢頭，我們認為這種勢頭將會持續下去。此外，我們互聯產品和耶魯谷歌智慧鎖的全新推出，我認為也將為我們帶來良好的發展動力。然後，你只需再加上互聯業務以及我們在流程和互聯產品方面看到的成長。因此，展望明年，有很多令人興奮的事情值得期待，以推動業績超越預期。

Super. Really appreciate the color, guys.

極好的。各位，我真的很喜歡這個顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

Mike Dahl，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

And thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to start with kind of a clarifying question around the tariff dynamic. Obviously, still some moving pieces since you last give your guidance between kind of copper and maybe some refinement around 32 and now the most recent news about reduced China exposure. And Nick, I wasn't sure if your comment referred to the 2025 impacts being de minimis. But maybe can you just clarify that, talk about kind of on an annualized basis as all tariffs as currently announced and maybe inclusive of this reduction in China tariffs, what that gross impact is for you?

謝謝您回答我的問題。我只是想先問一個關於關稅動態的澄清性問題。顯然，自從你上次就銅的種類以及32附近的一些提煉給出指導以來，還有一些變數，而現在又出現了關於減少對中國投資的最新消息。尼克，我不確定你的評論是否是指 2025 年的影響微乎其微。但您能否澄清一下，以年度為單位，談談目前已公佈的所有關稅，或許包括此次對中國關稅的下調，對您造成的總體影響是什麼？

Yeah, I'll just make a quick comment and turn it to John, but I just found that, the de minimis. I mean, we're not processing in that the 10% yet. That's very late breaking, and we want to do some work on that. So we're talking about all the other changes as we as we work through it. And then, there's some sector specific challenges too that, we see you've referenced some of them that we're going to have to be laser focused on.

是的，我簡單說一句，然後把麥克風交給約翰，但我剛剛發現，這是微不足道的。我的意思是，我們還沒有把那10%考慮進去。這是最新進展，我們需要對此做一些研究。所以，我們在討論其他所有變化的時候也會一併考慮。此外，還有一些行業特有的挑戰，我們看到您提到了一些，我們需要專注於這些挑戰。

I think with respect to the late breaking news on the on the 10% 1st we want to see it. Actually get inked and then you know we will do our work around that to see, where there where there's opportunity. John, you give some more color. Yeah.

我認為，關於1月1日當天發生的突發新聞，我們都想看到。實際上，先把紋身紋上去，然後我們再圍繞這個紋身展開工作，看看哪裡有機會。約翰，你來增添一些色彩。是的。

Yes, happy to give some color. So I think on the last call, I gave some dimensions around the tariff impact, $80 million in 2025 and $260 million on an annualized basis in 2026. So since the call, we've seen the reciprocal tariffs come down quite a bit and really across many of the jurisdictions. And so currently, and frankly, even with some preliminary views of the 10% reduction on China that was announced this morning, we see that the $80 million for this year is likely baked in.

是的，我很樂意增添一些色彩。所以我覺得在上次電話會議上，我給了一些關於關稅影響的估算，2025 年為 8000 萬美元，2026 年按年計算為 2.6 億美元。自從上次通話以來，我們看到互惠關稅已經大幅下降，而且這種情況在許多司法管轄區都存在。因此，目前坦率地說，即使考慮到今天早上宣布的對華減稅 10% 的一些初步看法，我們認為今年的 8000 萬美元減稅可能已經包含在內了。

But on an annualized basis for next year, we're more in the low 200 range, more in the low 200 area, I would say. So the tariff impact has come down. And as you mentioned copper was introduced since the last earnings call, but inclusive of my comments on the low 200s, that includes copper, which really has been de minimis for us. I think our estimate for the overall copper impact across our business is around $3 million. So not much of an impact at all.

但就明年的年化收益而言，我認為我們更傾向於 200 出頭，更傾向於 200 出頭這個範圍。因此，關稅的影響已經降低。正如您所提到的，銅是在上次財報電話會議之後引入的，但包括我之前提到的 200 美元左右的價格區間，也包含了銅，而銅對我們來說實際上微不足道。我認為我們估計銅對我們業務的整體影響約為 300 萬美元。所以幾乎沒有任何影響。

And again, we are focused on mitigating these tariffs through a variety of actions. So supply chain actions, which we continue, we are estimating that our -- that around 10% of our COGS will be China based by year-end. So we've been taking a lot of actions there, cost out opportunities that both Nick and I have mentioned throughout the call and then the strategic pricing actions, which is the third item. But really, it's a combination of those three that have helped us work that down, and we feel -- we've done a lot of work on these numbers, and we feel very comfortable on where we stand.

我們再次強調，我們將透過各種措施來減輕這些關稅的影響。因此，我們正在繼續採取供應鏈行動，我們預計到年底，我們將約 10% 的銷售成本來自中國。因此，我們一直在採取許多行動，包括降低成本、抓住機會（我和 Nick 在通話中都提到過），以及採取策略性定價行動（這是第三項）。但實際上，正是這三者的結合幫助我們降低了成本，我們覺得──我們已經對這些數據做了很多工作，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。

Yes. That's very helpful and good to hear. And if I just gear to a little more near term. You talked about a lot of the dynamics already, but I wanted to drill down on water margins for 4Q just given the commentary around now looking to pick your points on promotions and where to lean in on volume, your guide still implies kind of a wide range of outcomes for the fourth quarter. So can you help us kind of ballpark what that fourth quarter margin impact and also maybe specifically, like within that range of kind of the Water guide, how you're leaning on top line as well when you think about 4Q specifically?

是的。這很有幫助，聽到這個消息很高興。如果我把重點放在近期的事情上。您已經談到了很多動態因素，但鑑於目前的評論，我想深入探討第四季度的水邊際，並找出您關於促銷和銷售重點方面的觀點。您的指南仍然暗示第四季度可能會出現各種各樣的結果。那麼，您能否幫我們大致估算一下第四季度利潤率的影響，以及，在沃特斯指導方針的範圍內，您在考慮第四季度時，對營收有何看法？

Sure. I'm happy to start off. From a margin decline standpoint, we did guide to the full year for Water. Our margins haven't -- our margin guidance from quarter-to-quarter has not changed. So we maintain our 23% to 24% operating margin in that business unit. And so if you play that out, that still implies close to 23% or around 23% margin for that business unit in the fourth quarter, which would still be a nice increase or at least a modest increase from Q4 of last year.

當然。我很樂意開始。從利潤率下降的角度來看，我們對全年水務業務做出了預測。我們的利潤率沒有變化——我們每季的利潤率預期都沒有改變。因此，我們維持了該業務部門 23% 至 24% 的營業利潤率。因此，如果按此推算，該業務部門第四季度的利潤率仍接近 23% 或約為 23%，這將比去年​​第四季度實現一個不錯的增長，或者至少是一個適度的增長。

And I would tell you that just from a sequential basis, there, if you think about the margin decline, it's really just a matter of mix and spend. And we've mentioned some of the spend that we've been doing from promotional activity. I think there's -- that's probably one area that might change. And then the mix within our products and our channels will -- we're seeing a little bit of movement there as well.

我會告訴你，僅從連續性來看，如果你考慮利潤率下降的原因，這實際上只是產品組合和支出的問題。我們已經提到了一些我們在促銷活動方面的支出。我認為——這可能是個可能會改變的領域。然後，我們產品和通路的組合也會改變——我們也看到這方面出現了一些變化。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

Hey guys, thank you for taking my questions as well. And maybe just to follow up on Mike's question there. I mean I think you gave just gave the water margin directionally. And I think you gave the outdoor being similar in the fourth quarter to the third quarter. But I guess the question is, we're about 10 months into the year, and it feels like the overall ranges here are still pretty wide. Curious what could kind of swing things directionally here within the next couple of months in such a wide range? And maybe if you could just give us a little bit more color segment on where you're kind of leaning as we stand today?

各位，謝謝你們抽空回答我的問題。也許可以接著問一下麥克剛才提出的問題。我的意思是，我覺得你只是指明了水邊的方向。我認為你把第四節的戶外比賽狀況描述得和第三節很相似。但我想問的是，現在已經過去大約 10 個月了，感覺這裡的整體範圍仍然相當大。很好奇在接下來的幾個月裡，哪些因素可能會在如此大範圍內對局勢產生重大影響？或許您能再詳細談談您目前的看法嗎？

Yes, John, this is Nick. I'll start with just a couple of conceptual things and Jon will fill in some color. Just firstly, I would say the way we think about margins, we play it for the year, not for the quarter, right? We're trying to run the business over the longer term. And so we're not going to move around investments quarter-to-quarter just try to hit a margin number.

是的，約翰，這是尼克。我先從幾個概念性的東西開始，Jon 會補充細節。首先，我想說的是，我們考慮利潤率的方式是著眼於全年，而不是季度，對吧？我們力求實現企業的長期發展。因此，我們不會為了達到利潤率目標而逐季調整投資。

We're building this thing for the longer run. And so they say, I'd say some of the variability has come from some of the inventory channel movements that we've seen this year, where as Jon referenced, like we didn't see a seasonal inventory build in a high mix part of the business that will come down the road.

我們正在著眼長遠打造這個計畫。所以他們說，我認為部分波動性來自於我們今年看到的一些庫存管道變動，正如 Jon 所提到的，我們沒有看到未來會出現在業務高混合部分的季節性庫存累積。

But that does have some impact on margin. And then just a third comment on margins generally is I'd say, we'd look to the full year guidance on it. And then with respect to the tariff pricing, I think it's important to note, like we're -- our goal is to cover off tariffs dollar for dollar, and then we will work back any margin that we need to work back over time, leveraging our CI initiatives and our supply chain initiatives.

但這確實會對利潤率產生一定影響。關於利潤率，我還有第三點要補充，那就是，我們應該參考全年業績指引。至於關稅定價，我認為需要指出的是，我們的目標是逐美元覆蓋關稅，然後我們將利用我們的持續改進計劃和供應鏈計劃，隨著時間的推移，逐步彌補任何需要彌補的利潤。

Yes. And I think just to quantify it a little bit, if you look at our full year guide, which Q4 is always an interesting one because we do a full year guide, and it's really just one quarter. So you can back into our Q4 margin guidance. And if you look at what that is for both Outdoors, we covered Water. So my comment is on Outdoor and Security, you can really -- you can see that our Q4 margin implied in each of those guides is higher than the full year guide.

是的。我認為，為了更量化地說明這一點，如果你看一下我們的全年業績指南，第四季度總是很有意思，因為我們會發布全年業績指南，而實際上它只代表一個季度的業績。所以你可以推算出我們第四季的利潤率預期。如果你看一下戶外運動方面的內容，我們已經涵蓋了水。所以我的評論是關於戶外和安防業務的，你可以看到，我們在每份業績指南中隱含的第四季度利潤率都高於全年業績指南。

And so we are increasing our margin in both Outdoors and Security as we go into the back half of the year. We talked about a lot of the dynamics in outdoors in terms of the channel inventory. And I would say that if there's another factor kind of weighing on Outdoors. There is a mix element to it as we look at our product mix. It weighed on us a bit in Q3. And that trend is -- it looks like it's going to be something that we face in Q4 as well.

因此，隨著下半年的到來，我們在戶外和安防領域的利潤率正在提高。我們討論了許多戶外廣告通路庫存方面的動態變化。我想說，如果還有另一個因素影響戶外活動的話。從產品組合的角度來看，其中存在混合因素。第三季這給我們帶來了一些壓力。而這種趨勢——看來我們在第四季也會面臨同樣的問題。

And then in Security, I would say probably similar commentary. I think there is a mix element to it in terms of the timing of our promotional spend and when we're going to see some of that sales pull through. And one of the other elements on security that maybe we haven't touched on, on the call is there is a bit of -- as we changed some of the -- start selling through some of our new technology and some of the new hardware, the mix of some of the old hardware that we're also selling at a lower price point is it's probably pulling up a little bit of a part in Q4 as well.

至於安全性方面，我想說的評論可能也類似。我認為這其中存在一些綜合因素，包括我們促銷支出的時間表以及我們何時才能看到一些銷售成長。關於安全性，我們可能在電話會議上沒有談到的另一個因素是——隨著我們改變一些做法——開始銷售一些新技術和一些新硬件，同時我們也以較低的價格銷售一些舊硬件，這可能也會在第四季度帶來一些增長。

Okay, gotcha. And then, Nick, maybe just from, a higher level strategic angle here. I mean, there's obviously been a number of pretty meaningful changes at Fortune, recently with leadership, corporate headquarters, etc. And you know it seems like, a lot of this is behind you at this point maybe you can kind of refocus on on the core business. So my question is, how comfortable are you with the current categories and brands. Are there any that maybe don't quite, fit in quite as well as you thought prior, or are there any areas that you would look to add to? I mean, how are you kind of, looking at the portfolio overall?

好的，明白了。然後，尼克，或許可以從一個更高層次的策略角度來看這個問題。我的意思是，很顯然，《財星》雜誌最近發生了一些非常重要的變化，包括領導層變動、公司總部調整等等。現在看來，這些事情似乎都已經過去了，也許你可以重新專注於核心業務了。所以我的問題是，您對目前的品類和品牌有多滿意？有沒有哪些方面可能不如你之前預想的那麼合適？或是有沒有哪些方面你想補充？我的意思是，您如何看待整個投資組合？

Yes. Well, I'll just start with where you started, which was referencing that transformation. And I would say, as I said earlier, we're kind of feel like we're at the end of Phase II or III really coming down to a very tightly run operating company. And the first big portfolio move in '22 with cabinets and then move to an operating company model business unit-led refine that. I think some lessons learned, frankly, of things we could have done better. So made some structural and management changes at the start of this year, kind of call that Phase 3.03, and went to a footprint that matched our strategy with the headquarters move, which we've now moved over 500 people into and we're off and running. And so we're actually really excited to have that behind us. and really just go into '26 focused on execution and some of the incredible talent that we have here.

是的。好吧，我就從你開始的地方說起，也就是提到那個轉變的地方。正如我之前所說，我們感覺我們已經到了第二階段或第三階段的尾聲，即將成為一家管理非常嚴格的營運公司。2022 年，公司首次進行重大業務調整，轉向櫥櫃業務，然後轉向以業務部門為主導的營運公司模式，進一步完善業務。坦白說，我認為我們從中吸取了一些教訓，意識​​到有些事情我們可以做得更好。因此，我們在今年年初進行了一些結構和管理方面的調整，可以稱之為 3.03 階段，並調整了辦公場所佈局，使其與我們的策略相匹配，同時總部也進行了搬遷。目前，我們已經將 500 多人遷入新址，一切進展順利。所以，我們真的很高興這件事已經過去了。 2026年，我們將專注於執行力，並充分發揮我們這裡一些傑出的人才優勢。

Just a couple of other things I'll say. In addition to the talent story, this is all about driving growth, right? And it's all about being tighter, leaner, meaner together and driving growth. is also unlocking some efficiencies, right? And you just have less duplication and you're together and you can move faster, you're going to be more efficient. We're seeing that. And then just a final thought, as I said before, is in what is still a challenging economic backdrop, because we've gone through this, we're still in the rehiring phase, and we have our hands firmly on that bottle, and we will throttle it as appropriate to not overhire in what is still a challenging economy.

還有幾點要補充。除了人才方面，這一切最終都是為了推動成長，對吧？這一切都是為了更緊密、更精簡、更有效率地協作，進而推動成長。同時也是為了提高效率，對吧？這樣一來，重複工作就減少了，你們可以協同工作，行動更快，效率也會更高。我們看到了這一點。最後，正如我之前所說，在當前依然充滿挑戰的經濟環境下，由於我們經歷了這一切，我們仍然處於重新招聘階段，我們牢牢掌控著招聘力度，並將在適當的時候加以控制，以避免在當前依然充滿挑戰的經濟環境下過度招聘。

And so that's given us a lot of flexibility with our SG&A, sort of having to go, what we're seeing others do in the marketplace and actually let people go in. So that's a really good backdrop. So good question around the portfolio. I mean we are always looking at both our own portfolio and evaluating one of the most productive and fit to strategy parts. We will continue to do that. That's part of our duty to our shareholders as well as looking outside, but we will remain extremely disciplined, which is to say we look for good businesses. We look for businesses where we can add value. And we will only do it at prices that we believe are compelling where we can drive return. And so there's some interesting things out there that could help us move the strategy along even faster, but we'd have to meet that criteria.

因此，這讓我們在銷售、一般及行政費用方面有了很大的靈活性，我們不得不效仿市場上其他人的做法，實際上允許人們進入市場。所以，這真是個很棒的背景。關於投資組合的問題問得很好。我的意思是，我們始終在審視自己的投資組合，並評估其中最俱生產力且最符合策略的部分。我們將繼續這樣做。這是我們身為股東的責任，也是我們向外尋求投資機會的一部分，但我們將保持高度的自律，也就是說，我們會尋找優秀的企業。我們尋找能夠為我們創造價值的企業。我們只會以我們認為有吸引力且能帶來回報的價格來出售產品。因此，有一些有趣的東西可以幫助我們更快地推進策略，但我們必須滿足這些條件。

Okay. Thank you, guys.

好的。謝謝大家。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

Trevor Allinson，Wolfe Research。

Hi, good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to follow up on your comments about a flat market in 2026. I appreciate it's early, but we're seeing the homebuilders continue to slow starts pretty aggressively here, which will impact you guys on a lag. So considering that's well less than half of your business. Is the assumption that you all see repair and remodel growth next year and that will offset a declining new Red Mark or how do you think about growth or declines in each of those markets getting you to a flat overall market?

您好，晚上好。謝謝您回答我的問題。我想就您關於 2026 年市場低迷的評論做個後續說明。我知道現在還早，但我們看到這裡的房屋建築商繼續大幅放緩開工速度，這將對你們造成滯後影響。所以考慮到這還不到你業務的一半。你們是否都認為明年維修和翻新市場會成長，抵銷新建Red Mark市場的下滑？或者你們如何看待各市場的成長或下滑，最終導致整體市場持平？

Yes, I'll just give some high-level comments, and Jon can jump in. And firstly, just as a reminder for the builder side of the business, which is about a one-fourth of our business, we are much more tied to the midpoint between starts and completions, and they aren't typically one for one. What you'll see is starts to move up and down.

是的，我只做一些概括性的評論，Jon可以隨時補充。首先，提醒我們業務中約佔四分之一的建築商部分，我們與開工和竣工之間的中間點聯繫更為緊密，而且它們通常不是一對一的。你會看到它開始上下移動。

The completions are much, much more steady, and that's much closer to the number that we see come through our business because, again, the builders can throttle the starts number, up and down. And then we are seeing recovery in the R&R line.

竣工數量要穩定得多，而且與我們業務中看到的數量要接近得多，因為，再一次，建築商可以控制開工數量，使其上下波動。然後我們看到R&R產品線正在復甦。

I think it's -- I'd like it to be a whole lot stronger, but I was just looking at some data points across retail and e-commerce. And actually, the market has been flat for us on a dollar basis for 10 straight weeks, which hate to say that it's exciting, but relative to the last two, three years, that's actually pretty decent.

我認為——我希望它能更強一些，但我只是查看了一些零售和電子商務方面的數據點。事實上，以美元計價，我們的市場已經連續 10 週保持平穩，雖然不想說這令人興奮，但相對於過去兩三年而言，這實際上相當不錯。

And so you're seeing some firming and then, of course, we're seeing things like the home equity extraction activity applications for Helix, things like that, like I think up 80%, I read in the last reports or some green shoots there. And then we do have our growth initiatives in things like digital and luxury, which will provide us a tailwind to overdrive versus that market.

所以你會看到一些市場趨於穩定，當然，我們也看到像 Helix 的房屋淨值提取活動申請之類的數據，比如我認為增長了 80%，我在最近的報告中讀到過，或者說這方面出現了一些復甦的跡象。此外，我們在數位和奢侈品等領域也有成長計劃，這將為我們在這個市場中加速發展提供助力。

Yes. And I think just to add on that, if you look at what we've seen in some of those markets kind of year-to-date and how that might play into next year in repair and remodel, which is our biggest segment. If you look at the beginning of the year, we were looking at that being a bit -- that was still a bit down a little bit of a drag, although we have seen that turn in the back half of the year, and we expect some of that to continue into next year. So if I look at a flat overall market, we're looking at probably low single-digit increase in repair and remodel, with still some challenges in single-family new construction. That's probably down low single digits. So those will offset each other. And then that will play out through our portfolio.

是的。而且我認為，補充一點，如果你看看我們今年以來在一些市場中看到的情況，以及這可能會如何影響明年的維修和改造市場（這是我們最大的細分市場）。年初的時候，我們覺得情況有點——當時還是有點下滑，雖然下半年情況有所好轉，但我們預計這種情況會持續到明年。因此，如果我觀察整體市場穩定的情況，我們預計維修和改造業務可能會出現個位數低成長，而新建獨棟住宅仍面臨一些挑戰。那可能只有個位數。所以這些因素會互相抵消。然後，這將在我們的投資組合中反映出來。

So I'd just add, this isn't our '26 guide. We're trying to give our perspective to be helpful. If things improve, we'll invest accordingly. But if things deteriorate, as I said earlier, we've got our hand very firmly on that SG&A throttle, particularly with some roles yet to Hill. And so we're going to navigate this very, very tightly.

所以我想補充一點，這不是我們的 2026 年指南。我們試圖提供一些有益的觀點。如果情況好轉，我們會相應地加大投資。但如果情況惡化，正如我之前所說，我們已經牢牢控制了銷售、管理及行政費用，尤其是一些角色尚未交給希爾。所以，我們會非常非常謹慎地處理這件事。

Right. Yes, I appreciate that. And the color is extremely helpful. And then one of your competitors in water is out with a large announced price increase early next year. I just want to make sure I'm hearing your commentary correctly regarding price. Is it your expectation at this time that offsets the tariffs moving forward are going to be through avenues other than pricing, and it's not currently our expectation to push pricing in early 2026 to cover tariffs specifically? And then if you could, you tell us what water pricing was up on a year-over-year basis in 3Q. Thanks.

正確的。是的，我很感激。顏色也起到了極大的幫助作用。然後，你的一家水務競爭對手宣布將於明年初大幅漲價。我只是想確認我是否正確理解了您關於價格的評論。您目前是否預期，未來抵銷關稅的影響將透過價格以外的途徑實現？我們目前是否不打算在 2026 年初透過價格調整來專門抵銷關稅的影響？然後，如果可以的話，請告訴我們第三季水價比去年同期上漲了多少。謝謝。

Yes. I'll start. I don't know if we've broken that out, but I'll start on just how we're thinking about it. So as we said, our pricing on a dollar for dollar on a margin basis, a dollar-for-dollar basis, we believe we've covered off on the tariffs as we know today. That said, as I said earlier, like the philosophy of this company as a category leader is to be extremely disciplined in pricing. So we will take pricing. We will take it on a regular basis, and we'll take a in, hopefully, small increments, like that's our strategy.

是的。我先來。我不知道我們是否已經詳細討論過這個問題，但我會先從我們是如何思考這個問題開始說起。正如我們所說，以利潤率計算，以美元對美元計算，我們相信我們已經涵蓋了目前已知的關稅成本。也就是說，正如我之前所說，這家公司作為行業領導者的理念是，在定價方面要極其自律。所以我們會進行價格評估。我們會定期服用，而且希望能夠分小步驟進行，這就是我們的策略。

And that's what we did here at mid-single-digit pricing across the portfolio to cover off in tariffs. If you go back to '21, where we saw massive inflation, you had pretty modest pricing why because we took it early. We did it consistently. And as long as we continue to flex that muscle and we do it highly strategically focused where the market can accept that pricing unless so where the market cannot leveraging some of these digital capabilities we both, then we should be in a very good position.

因此，我們採取了這種策略，將整個產品組合的價格控制在個位數中段，以彌補關稅支出。回顧 2021 年，當時我們看到了嚴重的通貨膨脹，但物價卻相當適中，這是因為我們提前採取了行動。我們一直堅持這樣做。只要我們繼續展現這種實力，並且高度重視市場能夠接受的定價策略（除非市場無法接受），利用我們雙方的某些數位化能力，那麼我們就應該處於非常有利的地位。

And we really believe in doing that, and we really believe in maintaining pricing integrity across our channels, best for all of our customers. And so that's what I would expect to see from us as we move from here into '26. But I don't believe you will see at this point, absent any new tariff news to the negative is any type of catch-up pricing. As I said, I want to be crystal clear about that. There is no second round for us, we're done.

我們真心相信應該這樣做，我們也真心相信應該在所有管道中保持價格的完整性，這對我們所有的客戶來說都是最好的。所以，這就是我希望我們在2026年能夠看到的。但我認為，在沒有任何新的關稅消息的情況下，目前不會出現任何形式的追趕性定價。正如我所說，我想把這一點說清楚。我們沒有第二輪機會了，我們結束了。

Thank you for all the color. And good luck moving forward.

感謝你們帶來的所有色彩。祝你未來一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for joining today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線了。