快扣 (FAST) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Fastenal 2024 annual and Q4 earnings results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Fastenal 2024 年度和第四季收益結果電話會議。(操作員指示)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。

  • It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Taylor Ranta with the Fastenal Company. Please go ahead, Taylor.

    現在我很高興將電話轉給 Fastenal 公司的 Taylor Ranta。請繼續,泰勒。

  • Taylor Oborski - Accounting Manager

    Taylor Oborski - Accounting Manager

  • Welcome to the Fastenal Company 2024 annual and fourth quarter earnings conference call. This call will be hosted by Dan Florness, our Chief Executive Officer; Jeff Watts, our President and Chief Sales Officer; and Holden Lewis, our Chief Financial Officer. The call will last for up to one hour and will start with a general overview of our annual and quarterly results and operations, with the remainder of the time being open for questions and answers.

    歡迎參加 Fastenal Company 2024 年度和第四季財報電話會議。本次電話會議將由我們的執行長 Dan Florness 主持;我們的總裁兼首席銷售官 Jeff Watts;以及我們的財務長 Holden Lewis。電話會議將持續長達一小時,首先概述我們的年度和季度業績和營運情況,剩餘時間將開放問答。

  • Today's conference call is a proprietary Fastenal presentation and is being recorded by Fastenal. No recording, reproduction, transmission or distribution of today's call is permitted without Fastenal's consent.

    今天的電話會議是 Fastenal 的專有演示,並由 Fastenal 錄製。未經 Fastenal 同意,不得錄製、複製、傳輸或散佈今天的通話。

  • This call is being audio simulcast on the Internet via the Fastenal Investor Relations homepage, investor.fastenal.com. A replay of the webcast will be available on the website until March 1, 2025, at midnight Central Time.

    本次電話會議將透過 Fastenal 投資者關係主頁 investor.fastenal.com 在網路上進行音訊同步直播。網路直播的重播將在網站上提供,直至 2025 年 3 月 1 日中部時間午夜。

  • As a reminder, today's conference call may include statements regarding the company's future plans and prospects. These statements are based on our current expectations, and we undertake no duty to update them.

    提醒一下,今天的電話會議可能包括有關公司未來計劃和前景的聲明。這些聲明是基於我們目前的預期,我們不承擔更新它們的義務。

  • It is important to note that the company's actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could cause actual results to differ from anticipated results are contained in the company's latest earnings release and periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and we encourage you to review those factors carefully.

    值得注意的是,該公司的實際結果可能與預期結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與預期結果不同的因素包含在公司最新的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期文件中,我們鼓勵您仔細查看這些因素。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan Florness.

    現在我想將電話轉給丹·弗洛內斯先生。

  • Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, and good morning, everybody, and welcome to the Q4 Fastenal earnings call. And I'll -- in the foot book, on page 3.

    謝謝大家,早安,歡迎參加 Fastenal 第四季財報電話會議。我會──在腳本書的第 3 頁。

  • Our business grew 3.7% in the fourth quarter and an extra day, so daily was 2.1. Frankly, a frustrating start to a challenging year. Our business gets and loses leverage relatively quickly when our growth expands or our growth contracts. And you saw evidence of that in the quarter, where we lost some leverage, and EPS came in at $0.46, so down about 2%. December, I think it's worthwhile to talk a little about December.

    我們的業務在第四季度多一天成長了 3.7%,所以每天是 2.1。坦白說,這是充滿挑戰的一年,開局卻令人沮喪。當我們的成長擴張或收縮時,我們的業務槓桿率會相對較快地獲得和失去。您在本季看到了這方面的證據,我們失去了一些槓桿率,每股收益為 0.46 美元,下降了約 2%。十二月,我覺得有必要聊聊十二月。

  • And then, frankly, we've already moved down to 2025. But to look at December from the standpoint of -- there's two months going on there. The first roughly 15 days, so when I think of Friday before Christmas, we were trending towards sales growth, daily growth.

    然後,坦白說,我們已經推遲到 2025 年了。但從這個角度來看 12 月——那裡有兩個月的時間。大約前 15 天,所以當我想到聖誕節前的星期五時,我們的銷售額趨於增長,每天都在增長。

  • We felt it would be in [excess of 3%]. Depending on which voice you listen to when we were comparing trends, you could have argued for 4%, but a 3%-plus number. And in the last -- that Christmas week and then that New Year's Day week, that collapsed.

    我們覺得[超過 3%]。當我們比較趨勢時,根據您所聽到的聲音,您可能會爭辯說是 4%,但實際上這個數字是 3% 以上。而在最後的聖誕節那週和元旦那週,一切都崩潰了。

  • And if I'm doing the math, it tells me if first 15 days of the month, we're growing at 3% to 4% and you weigh that against the last five days and having all that evaporate, that means in the last five days, we were probably negative, somewhere between 9% and 12%. And however, we don't believe -- we believe the first part of the month is more indicative of where we are and where we're going to be in January and February than what we saw in the last area.

    如果我算一下,就會發現如果這個月的前15 天,我們的成長率是3% 到4%,而你把這個數字與最後5 天進行比較,如果所有這些都消失了,那就意味著最後五天的話,我們的預期可能是負數,在 9% 到 12% 之間。然而,我們認為,與上個月看到的情況相比,本月上旬的情況更能說明我們現在的情況以及一月和二月的情況。

  • If you look at the data of what's happening. We have a lot of anecdotal data. But I sat down on January 2 with our vending team. And I said, we have something unique here that we really should understand better. And that is we have vending machines in just over 20,000 facilities on the planet. And the calendar is the calendar.

    如果你看一下正在發生的情況的數據。我們有很多軼事數據。但我在 1 月 2 日與我們的自動販賣團隊進行了會談。我說,我們這裡有一些獨特的東西,我們確實應該更好地理解。也就是說,我們在全球超過 20,000 個設施中設有自動販賣機。日曆就是日曆。

  • And -- let's look at a baseline. I asked them -- we get a lot of the information that comes in and we look at it in weekly snapshots. So Sunday to Saturday, type snapshot. And I said, look at the two weeks prior to the week that Christmas touches and look at what our trends were and what our pace of business was in that time frame, and then look at each week thereafter, so the week the Christmas touches, the week that New Year's touches, the first clean week of January and the second clean week January.

    讓我們看一下基準。我問他們——我們獲得了大量的信息,並在每週的快照中查看這些信息。因此從週日到週六,輸入快照。我說,看看聖誕節前兩週的情況,看看那段時間我們的趨勢和業務節奏,然後看看之後的每一周,所以聖誕節那一周,新年觸及的那週,一月的第一個乾淨週和一月的第二個乾淨週。

  • So you can really look at -- did something different happen there. The other thing that I asked them to do is we're fortunate with a range of customers. Obviously, industrial is our biggest component. But in the vending area with a meaningful customer base that represents nonmanufacturing entities, and a handful of those are eCommerce companies.

    所以你真的可以看看——那裡是否發生了一些不同的事情。我要求他們做的另一件事是,我們很幸運能擁有一系列客戶。顯然,工業是我們最大的組成部分。但在自動販賣領域,擁有重要客戶群的代表非製造實體,其中少數是電子商務公司。

  • So -- and their trends would be completely different because they're really busy around the holidays. So take out our top 10 vending customers. We did that, and I said that's analyze the rest. And -- excuse me, the top 10 non-manufacturing vending customers.

    所以——他們的趨勢會完全不同,因為他們在假期期間真的很忙。因此,選出我們前 10 名的自動販賣客戶。我們這樣做了,我說那就分析剩下的部分吧。而且—抱歉,這是前十大非製造業自動販賣機客戶。

  • So if I look at -- and then I said determine a bright line of where you think the facility is shut down, and the team came to the conclusion that if we're doing 100 transactions on average a day and that number goes to 25% or less, we're going to consider that facility as essentially shut down. And because the only people there are -- maybe there are some maintenance folks that are in there, because it's a good time to do maintenance.

    因此,如果我看一下——然後我說確定一個你認為設施關閉的明確界限,團隊得出的結論是,如果我們平均每天進行 100 筆交易,而這個數字上升到 25 % 或更少,我們將認為該設施基本上已經關閉。因為那裡只有人——也許有一些維護人員在裡面,因為這是進行維護的好時機。

  • Maybe there's a few production lines that are running because they're behind, or maybe there's an area you don't shut down like heat treatment because it's too expensive to start it back up. So in 2022, about 25% of the facilities we sell into that have vending, about 25% saw the activity drop more than 75%.

    也許有幾條生產線正在運行,因為它們已經落後了,或者有一個區域你不會關閉,例如熱處理,因為重新啟動它的成本太高了。因此,到 2022 年,在我們銷售產品的設施中,約有 25% 的設施的自動販賣機活動下降了 75% 以上。

  • So they were running less than 25% of normal. In 2023, that was 30%. In 2024, a that's 35%. So a meaningful uptick really since the economy weakened in '22, the industrial economy, we saw a meaningful uptick in each of the two years and that was accentuated this year. More telling was the week of New Year's.

    所以他們的運作效率不到正常水準的 25%。到 2023 年,這一比例將達到 30%。到 2024 年,這一比例將達到 35%。因此,自 2022 年經濟疲軟以來,工業經濟確實出現了有意義的上升,我們在兩年中的每一年都看到了有意義的上升,而今年的上升尤為明顯。更能說明問題的是新年那一週。

  • So the week after Christmas, [6%] were shut down, 6% were shut down. This year, it's 17% were shut down. So there were a tremendous number of companies that probably shut down the day after Christmas. And I don't know if they were open the Monday or Tuesday before.

    因此聖誕節後的一周,[6%] 關閉,6% 被關閉。今年,有17%的工廠關閉。因此,聖誕節後第二天可能會有大量公司倒閉。我不知道他們之前的周一或週二是否有營業。

  • But the day after Christmas and they stayed shut down through January 2. They just said, we're idling operations. And that plays very true to what we saw in our numbers. The only other item that was noteworthy is we looked also at -- their activity is just down.

    但聖誕節後第二天,他們就關閉到 1 月 2 日。他們只是說,我們正在暫停營運。這與我們的數據顯示的情況非常吻合。唯一值得注意的另一件事是我們也看到——他們的活動只是減少。

  • Because if there's normally five workdays in a week and you're down to four, you'd expect to be at about 80%. We did see the week after Christmas and two weeks after Christmas, a very strong increase in the number of customers that were down at least 25%.

    因為如果一周通常有五個工作日,而現在減少到四個工作日,那麼預計工作效率將達到 80% 左右。我們確實看到聖誕節後一周和聖誕節後兩週顧客數量大幅增加,下降了至少 25%。

  • And when I look at -- so last week, that number -- the activity had normalized as far as how many are shut down, it's about 4%. But we saw an impact of the weather in the Southeast, and we don't have this week's data yet. Our anticipation is that, that normalized.

    當我查看上週的數字時,我發現關閉的數量已經恢復正常,約為 4%。但我們看到東南部天氣產生了影響,而且我們還沒有收到本週的數據。我們的預期是,這將變得正常化。

  • And Holden will touch on a little bit of that when he looks at truck routes and things like that, that we canceled during last week. So a lot of waiting into the weeds there. I hope that made sense. My guess is a few of you will have follow-up questions for Holden on his -- after the call.

    當霍爾頓查看我們上週取消的卡車路線和類似事項時,他將會稍微談到這一點。因此,有很多事情需要等待。我希望這是有道理的。我猜你們中的一些人會在通話結束後向霍爾頓提出後續問題。

  • The next piece, and I'll touch -- I'll dive a little deeper when we get on page 2. But in preparation for Investor Day, we thought we had shared some information we're going to be talking about, and we're planning on Investor Day in March. And we thought we'd share a new view.

    下一部分,我將觸及——當我們進入第 2 頁時,我將深入探討一些。但在準備投資者日時,我們認為我們已經分享了一些我們將要討論的信息,並且我們計劃在三月舉行投資者日。我們想分享一個新的觀點。

  • So when I joined the organization back in 1996, it was all about account numbers and dollars per active. So active accounts, how many customers -- how many accounts bought from you and dollars per customer, and growing both of those over time.

    因此,當我在 1996 年加入該組織時,一切都與帳戶數量和每個活躍帳戶的美元有關。因此,活躍帳戶是指有多少客戶——有多少帳戶從您這裡購買了產品以及每個客戶的收入,並且這兩個數字都會隨著時間的推移而增長。

  • And we used to always say in a typical branch, you had 100 active accounts, 10 of those represented about 65% of sales. If you would have looked at it not as an account base, but as a customer. And what I mean by that is we might have three account numbers in a building because we're selling to the maintenance area, we're selling to the production area and we're selling maybe a second production line, so you have three account numbers to track the activity.

    我們過去總是說,在一個典型的分支機構中,您有 100 個活躍帳戶,其中 10 個帳戶約佔銷售額的 65%。如果您不將其視為帳戶基礎,而是將其視為客戶。我的意思是,我們可能在一棟建築中有三個帳號,因為我們向維護區銷售產品,向生產區銷售產品,我們可能還會向第二條生產線銷售產品,所以你有三個帳號號碼來追蹤活動。

  • That's one customer, but we looked at it as three accounts or three, at the time. I'll touch on that in a second on page 2. Finally, on page 3, we raised our quarterly dividend by roughly 10%. If you annualize the dividend we just declared, it's about $1.72.

    那隻是一位客戶,但當時我們將其視為三個帳戶或三個。我將在第 2 頁稍後談到這一點。最後,在第 3 頁,我們將季度股利提高了約 10%。如果將我們剛剛宣布的股息按年率計算,則約為 1.72 美元。

  • We feel very confident on our ability to continue the strong cash flow generation, very indicative of our business model for many, many years. So you see a new chart here, probably an unfamiliar look to the business.

    我們對自己持續產生強勁現金流的能力非常有信心,這非常能體現我們多年來的商業模式。您在這裡看到一張新圖表,對於企業來說可能是一個陌生的外觀。

  • But some -- I felt the best way to address this, and I'm not seeing my seat of paper here, unfortunately, is to address a letter I did for our employees. And in that letter -- sorry, I had to go back to my desk to grab it. I describe to our employees what they're looking at in this information.

    但有些——我覺得解決這個問題的最好方法是寫一封我為我們的員工寫的信,但不幸的是,我在這裡沒有看到我的文件。在那封信裡——抱歉,我不得不回到我的辦公桌去拿它。我向我們的員工描述他們在這些資訊中看到的內容。

  • Some quick definition. Each customer site is a roll-up of revenue going into a unique site from a branch or Onsite. It includes everything we provide, whether it's dropped at a dock or a customer's desk, supplied via an MI device, shipped to the facility using a third party or picked up at a Fastenal location.

    一些快速定義。每個客戶站點都是從分公司或現場進入獨特站點的收入的總結。它包括我們提供的一切,無論是投放在碼頭或客戶的桌子上,透過 MI 設備供應,透過第三方運送到工廠還是在 Fastenal 地點取貨。

  • Each customer site also rolls together all the individual accounts our local team uses to summarize and build for the products and services we provide. The information on the slide is based on analysis of roughly 270,000 unique customer sites that we supply products into during 2024.

    每個客戶網站也會匯總我們當地團隊用來匯總和建立我們所提供的產品和服務的所有個人帳戶。投影片上的資訊是根據我們在 2024 年期間供應產品的約 270,000 個獨特客戶網站的分析。

  • Again, it's a simple-looking graphic, but it tells a powerful story about our business. The top two buckets summarize customers that are doing more than $10,000 a month; and then the subset of that, they do more than $50,000.

    再說一遍,這是一張看起來很簡單的圖形,但它有力地講述了我們業務的故事。前兩個類別概括了月收入超過 10,000 美元的客戶;其中的一部分,他們的收入超過 5 萬美元。

  • So the $10,000-plus includes about 5% of the customer sites we serve, but represents about 77% of our total sales. Since 2017, revenue through these customer sites has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 14%.

    因此,10,000 美元以上的銷售額約占我們服務客戶的 5%,但約占我們總銷售額的 77%。自 2017 年以來,透過這些客戶站點的收入以 14% 的複合年增長率成長。

  • When I look at these customers, they really value what we bring to the marketplace, and we have been incredibly successful. In 2024, there are about 13,000 customer sites in this group, again, about 5% of 270,000, which translates into about 54 sites in the average district.

    當我看到這些客戶時,他們確實重視我們為市場帶來的東西,而且我們也取得了令人難以置信的成功。到 2024 年,該組客戶站點約有 13,000 個,同樣約佔 270,000 個站點的 5%,也就是說平均每個地區約有 54 個站點。

  • There's 240 districts, across our business. The average customer site spends about $38,000 per month, and the number of $10,000 customer sites has increased about 9% a year since 2017. Thanks to the strength of our Onsite program, there's a subset of this group that has grown even faster, the customer sites where spend is at least $50,000 per month.

    我們的業務範圍涵蓋 240 個地區。平均每個客戶站點每月花費約 38,000 美元,自 2017 年以來,10,000 美元客戶站點的數量每年增加約 9%。由於我們現場計劃的強大實力,該群體中有一個子集的增長速度更快,即客戶站點每月的花費至少為 50,000 美元。

  • Since 2017, revenue through this subset of customer sites has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 18%. The scale of this business changes the customer site economics. It allows us to operate more cost effectively, hence, the Onsite program.

    自 2017 年以來,透過這部分客戶站點的收入以 18% 的複合年增長率成長。該業務的規模改變了客戶現場的經濟狀況。它使我們能夠更經濟高效地運營,因此有現場計劃。

  • This, in turn, expands the resources we can provide, improve the opportunity for the customer and for Fastenal. In 2024, there were 2,547 customer sites in this bucket, about 1% of the total sites we serve, which translates to about 11 customer sites in an average district. Since 2017, the number of $50,000-plus customers has grown 16% per year.

    這反過來又擴大了我們可以提供的資源,為客戶和 Fastenal 改善了機會。2024 年,該類別中有 2,547 個客戶站點,約占我們服務的總站點數的 1%,也就是說,平均每個地區有大約 11 個客戶站點。自 2017 年以來,50,000 美元以上的客戶數量每年增長 16%。

  • So we've heavily talked about Onsite acquisition. And as you see, of this 2,500, about 2,000 of them are physically in an Onsite. We'll talk in March about how we intend to deemphasize Onsite numbers and change it to talking about $50,000-plus customers.

    我們深入討論了現場收購。如您所見,在這 2,500 人中,約有 2,000 人實際在現場。我們將在三月討論如何不再強調現場數字,而是談論 50,000 美元以上的客戶。

  • We believe that positions the best story of telling the business to make it clear what we're striving to accomplish and how successful we are at that endeavor. On the lower half of the slide, there are two buckets of customer sites where we appear to us successful.

    我們相信,最好的故事可以告訴企業,我們正在努力實現的目標以及我們在這項努力中取得了多大的成功。在投影片的下半部分,有兩組我們看起來成功的客戶網站。

  • Here are some thoughts on these. Customer sites spending between $5,000 and $10,000 per month represent about 4% of the customer sites we serve. In 2024, there are about 10,000 customer sites in this bucket, roughly 42 in the Nava District, and we've added about 4% more sites per year to this bucket since 2017.

    以下是我對此的一些想法。每月花費在 5,000 至 10,000 美元之間的客戶站點約占我們服務的客戶站點的 4%。到 2024 年,該類別下將有大約 10,000 個客戶站點,其中納瓦區約有 42 個,自 2017 年以來,我們每年都會向該類別下增加約 4% 的站點。

  • This would be mediocre expect on one fact. We've been incredibly successful with many of the customer sites formerly in this group. In fact, many have become $10,000-plus customer sites over the last seven years. This success has been driven by your efforts to introduce our supply chain, transformational capabilities using FMI, Onsite, production parts, MRO products and many industrial services.

    除了一個事實之外,這將是平庸的。我們與集團之前的許多客戶合作都取得了巨大的成功。事實上,過去七年來,許多網站已成為價值 10,000 多美元的客戶網站。這項成功得益於您為引入我們的供應鏈、使用 FMI、Onsite、生產零件、MRO 產品和許多工業服務的轉型能力所做的努力。

  • In fact, a sidebar here, Industrial Services broke $100 million in revenue for the first time in 2024. It's been great for those customers, for our employees, for our shareholders and for our suppliers. In this slide, our performance isn't mediocre. However, it's not great either.

    事實上,這裡的一個側邊欄是,工業服務的收入在 2024 年首次突破 1 億美元。對於客戶、員工、股東和供應商來說,這都是非常有利的。在這張投影片中,我們的表現並不平庸。但是,它也不太好。

  • That 4% CAGR should probably be upper single digits, if not 10%. The final bucket of customer sites, less than $5,000 per month, has borne the brunt of changes in our business in the world over the past several years.

    4% 的複合年增長率可能應該是一個數上限,如果不是 10% 的話。最後一批每月費用不到 5,000 美元的客戶網站承受了我們過去幾年全球業務變化的衝擊。

  • A decade of strategically closing locations, COVID-19 and its impact on how customers purchase products, thank eCommerce, the removable products from our previously stocked in our distribution centers, this we reversed in 2024. A strategic decision regarding sales time allocation and maybe some slippage in execution by the Fastenal organization.

    經過十年的策略性關閉,COVID-19 及其對客戶購買產品方式的影響,感謝電子商務,我們之前儲存在配送中心的可拆卸產品,我們在 2024 年扭轉了這一局面。Fastenal 組織針對銷售時間分配所做的策略決策,以及執行上可能出現的一些失誤。

  • I believe the critical aspect of this group is you closed a lot of locations, that customer that sees us as convenient, but not special, that business falls off. The way you make that special is you push harder on your eCommerce capabilities and what it means for unplanned spend.

    我認為這個集團的關鍵問題是你們關閉了很多門市,那些認為我們很方便但並不特別的客戶,業務就會下滑。讓這一點變得特別的方法是更努力地提升你的電子商務能力,並了解這對計畫外支出意味著什麼。

  • Because what that do -- does, it benefits every customer bucket you see on this page, because we're more than planned spend, we're everything they need. Flipping to page 5. Onsite, we signed 56 in the quarter. So we finished the year with 2,031, increase of about 12% of what we saw a year ago.

    因為這樣做會使您在此頁面上看到的每個客戶群受益,因為我們不只是計劃支出,我們還提供他們需要的一切。翻到第 5 頁。本季我們現場簽署了 56 份合約。因此,我們今年的招生數量為 2,031 人,比一年前增加了約 12%。

  • Customers in the Onsite world grew mid-single digits. We did see similar to what we saw in 2000, older contingents of Onsite go negative during the year. And it's not uncommon on a call with a district manager to learn about two or three or four customers where their business is down 40%, 50%, 60%, 70% where it was a year ago, that's a sign of what the industrial economy is taking away.

    Onsite 領域的客戶數量成長了中等個位數。我們確實看到了與 2000 年類似的情況,當年的 Onsite 老隊伍人數呈負增長。在與地區經理的通話中,經常會了解到兩三個或四個客戶的業務比一年前下降了 40%、50%、60%、70%,這是工業經濟正在帶走。

  • Our execution and our ability to take market share is a sign of how we do self-help and fight back. All told, we signed 358 Onsites in 2024. We signed 326 last year, so an increase. Not at our goal, but a meaningful increase.

    我們的執行力和佔領市場份額的能力是我們如何自救和反擊的標誌。總而言之,我們在 2024 年簽署了 358 個 Onsite 協議。去年我們簽了 326 份,所以有所增加。雖然沒有達到我們的目標,但卻有了有意義的成長。

  • And signings that are consistent with previous peaks in 2019, the year before COVID in 2022, the first year we came out. FMI Technology, huge aspect of the business here and strong success. We broke 100 MAU signings per day for the first time.

    簽約數量與 2019 年(即新冠疫情爆發的前一年,即 2022 年,也就是我們推出的第一年)的峰值一致。FMI 技術在這裡的業務規模龐大並且取得了巨大的成功。我們首次突破了每日100名MAU簽約人數的紀錄。

  • We feel very good about how we exit the year and what that means for 2025. And in the fourth quarter, FMI Technology touched about 44% of our revenue versus 42% and 39% in the last two years. And we established a goal of 28,000 to 30,000 MAUs for 2025 versus the 28,000 we just signed.

    我們對於今年的結束以及這對 2025 年的意義感到非常滿意。第四季度,FMI 技術占我們營收的 44% 左右,而過去兩年分別為 42% 和 39%。我們設定的 2025 年 MAU 目標是 28,000 至 30,000,而我們剛剛簽署的目標是 28,000。

  • And Holden touches on that a bit in our CapEx expectations. eCommerce, a good story, not a great story. It grew about 28%. eProcurement, where we have established common relations, continues to grow almost 40%, 37.6%. However, the eCommerce piece that contains web, we still struggle there and we're putting double down efforts into that.

    霍爾頓在我們的資本支出預期中稍微談到了這一點。電子商務是一個好故事,但不是一個偉大的故事。增長了約28%。我們已建立共同關係的電子採購持續成長近 40%,即 37.6%。然而,在包含網路的電子商務部分,我們仍然在努力,並且正在加倍努力。

  • We realigned some teams to make that a more relevant part of our business. All told, you take eBusiness and FMI Technology, about 62% of our sales, just over 60%, touched our digital footprint. Our goal was to get that to 63% in 2024, so just shy of that number. Our goal for next year is 66%, 68%. And before I turn it over to Holden, I just want to touch on a couple of things.

    我們重新調整了一些團隊,使其成為我們業務更相關的部分。總而言之,以電子商務和 FMI 技術為例,我們銷售額的 62% 左右(略高於 60%)都與數位足跡有關。我們的目標是到 2024 年將這一比例提高到 63%,因此略低於這個數字。我們明年的目標是66%、68%。在把話題交給霍爾頓之前,我想先談幾件事。

  • First off, some comments that Holden made to our regional leaders and our VPs this morning. He talked about in 2024, a cost structure that was effectively managed. And one challenge I made to the group, I believe our incremental margin will be stronger in 2025.

    首先,霍爾頓今天早上向我們的地區領導和副總裁發表了一些評論。他談到了2024年將實現有效管理的成本結構。我向集團提出的一個挑戰是,我相信我們的增量利潤率在 2025 年會更高。

  • And the challenge to them is as our momentum takes us through the year -- and time will tell what the economy allows that momentum to shine through as. But as our momentum takes us into 2025, there's a lot of expenses that we've been squeezing really tightly on in the last couple of years.

    他們面臨的挑戰是我們的發展勢頭能否持續到今年——時間將告訴我們,經濟能否讓這種勢頭繼續閃耀。但隨著我們的勢頭進入 2025 年,過去幾年我們在許多開支上都遇到了很大困難。

  • We have to maintain that, because it puts us in a position to allow for the reload of bonuses. We have a large group of folks within Fastenal that haven't seen bonuses for close to two years, 1.5 years at least, and we need to allow the inherent capabilities of Fastenal to reload that.

    我們必須堅持這一點,因為這使我們有能力重新加載獎金。Fastenal 內部有一大批員工已經將近兩年、至少一年半沒有拿到獎金了,我們需要利用 Fastenal 的固有能力來為他們重新充值。

  • And the best way to do that is to get the revenue growth, capture the gross profit and manage our expenses incredibly well. The other thing I touched on with the group this morning was, as all of you saw in December, Holden announced his decision to leave Fastenal effective April.

    而實現這一目標的最佳方法就是實現收入成長、獲取毛利並妥善管理我們的開支。我今天早上與大家談到的另一件事是,正如大家在 12 月看到的那樣,霍爾頓宣布他決定從 4 月開始離開 Fastenal。

  • I think back to -- when Holden joined the organization, I think back to that conversation he had with me and this is when he told me -- I think it was probably a hard conversation for him, at least I hope it was. And when Holden joined our organization back a number of years ago, what we were looking for in a CFO was somebody to bring in a fresh perspective, a very analytical look who could pick apart of the business maybe in ways that the previous CFO didn't do and give it a new set of eyes.

    我回想起——當霍爾頓加入該組織時,我回想起他與我的那次談話,當時他告訴我——我認為這對他來說可能是一次艱難的談話,至少我希望如此。幾年前,當 Holden 加入我們公司時,我們正在尋找一位能夠帶來全新視角、具有很強分析能力的首席財務官,能夠以前任首席財務官無法做到的方式分析業務。新的眼光。

  • And from that, I want to thank Holden for what he brought to our organization from the standpoint of somebody that didn't grow up in the organization, but knew a lot about the industry and also had a keen mind towards analysis.

    從這一點出發,我要感謝霍爾頓,雖然他不是在這個組織中長大的,但是他對這個行業非常了解,並且有敏銳的分析頭腦,因此他為我們的組織做出了貢獻。

  • The other thing that it will -- Holden, I think, was saying to Jeff and Jeff stepped into the President role here last fall, is it allows Jeff, the opportunity -- Jeff Watts, the opportunity to figure out who our CFO should be for our next 10 years, what skill set we are looking for to serve the business today at close to $8 billion versus the business eight years ago at around $4 billion.

    另一件事——我想,霍爾頓去年秋天對傑夫說,傑夫擔任總裁一職,這讓傑夫有機會——傑夫沃茨有機會弄清楚誰應該成為我們的首席財務官員對於未來的 10 年,我們需要什麼樣的技能來服務目前接近 80 億美元的業務,而八年前的業務價值約為 40 億美元。

  • And so I wish Holden well and I applaud the move to recognize that maybe Jeff needs a different CFO in the future. And finally, before that comment sounds like Florness is out the door, I thought I'd share a conversation I had with my kids in August. We do a family vacation every year. And our kids are in their late teens or 20s now.

    因此,我祝霍爾頓一切順利,並且我很欣賞傑夫認識到未來可能需要一位不同的財務長的舉措。最後,在那條評論聽起來像是弗洛倫斯離開之前,我想分享一下我在八月與孩子們的一次談話。我們每年都會進行一次家庭度假。我們的孩子如今都十幾歲或二十多歲了。

  • And they asked me, Hey dad, what is it -- what does it mean being CEO versus president? And I said, you ask 10 people, you're going to get 13 different answers. Here's what it means to me. I think on the CEO side of the business as you're focused on the strategy where you're going and you're focused very keenly on what that means for people and development, and how the organization should position itself for what it's going to be become.

    他們問我,嘿爸爸,這是什麼意思——擔任執行長和擔任總裁意味著什麼?我說,如果你問 10 個人,你會得到 13 個不同的答案。這對我來說意味著這些。我認為,作為首席執行官,你要專注於你的發展策略,關注這對員工和發展意味著什麼,以及組織應該如何定位自己,以實現未來的目標。

  • Whereas the president is much more about executing what you're doing every day, every month, every quarter, every year. And -- but I said, Jeff is stepping into that President piece, but he's also stepping -- he's training for that deal piece. But he still has his first title and that is Chief Sales Officer.

    而總統則更關心如何執行你每天、每月、每季、每年所做的事情。而且 — — 但我說過,傑夫正在踏入總統的職位,但他也在踏入 — — 他正在為那筆交易進行培訓。但他仍保留著他的第一個頭銜,那就是首席銷售官。

  • And as long as he has that title and even when he gives up, his number one priority is how we're executing to grow the business and the part of our strategy that's about growing the business. That's his focus. When we get to 10%, we can change that focus.

    只要他擁有這個頭銜,即使他放棄了,他的首要任務仍然是我們如何執行以發展業務以及我們策略中有關發展業務的部分。這就是他的關注點。當我們達到 10% 時,我們就可以改變焦點。

  • Anyway, I'll turn it over to Holden.

    無論如何,我會把它交給霍爾頓。

  • Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Great. Thanks, Dan. Yes, it was a very difficult conversation, just so you know. But this has been a tremendous opportunity. I just want to make sure all investors understand I have a unique opportunity to go try something different.

    偉大的。謝謝,丹。是的,這是一次非常艱難的談話,你知道的。但這是一個巨大的機會。我只是想確保所有投資者都明白,我有一個獨特的機會去嘗試一些不同的東西。

  • But this has been -- it's been an honor to work for Fastenal, and it's -- this is a great organization and a great opportunity. So jumping into slide 6. I know what the investors want to hear is what's going on with the quarter. Sales in the fourth quarter in '24 were up 3.7%.

    但在 Fastenal 工作是我的榮幸,這是一個很棒的組織,也是一個很好的機會。所以跳到第 6 張投影片。我知道投資者想知道的是本季發生的情況。24年第四季銷售額成長3.7%。

  • Daily sales were up 2.1%. Daily sales growth range from 1.8% to 2.1% throughout the year, a consistency that makes sense in the context of a PMI that spent most of the year signaling modest contraction in manufacturing. The attributes of our sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 were similarly comparable to prior quarters.

    日銷售額成長2.1%。全年每日銷售額增幅在 1.8% 至 2.1% 之間,在 PMI 今年大部分時間都顯示製造業溫和萎縮的背景下,這種一致性是合理的。我們 2024 年第四季的銷售屬性與前幾季類似。

  • MRO-oriented products outperformed OEM-oriented products, with safety up 4.8% and fasteners down 1.4%. Larger accounts outperformed smaller customers, with national accounts up [4.2%] and nonnational accounts down 1%. And manufacturing end markets were up 3.3%, outperforming nonmanufacturing end markets, which were down 0.3%, headlined by a 4.1% decline in nonresidential construction and an 11.3% decline in reseller.

    MRO 類產品表現優於 OEM 類產品,安全性上漲 4.8%,緊固件下降 1.4%。較大帳戶的表現優於較小客戶,其中國內帳戶成長 [4.2%],非國內帳戶下降 1%。製造業終端市場上漲 3.3%,表現優於非製造業終端市場,後者下跌 0.3%,其中非住宅建築下跌 4.1%,經銷商下跌 11.3%。

  • There was not a lot of variation in our high-level top line trends through 2024. That said, the fourth quarter of 2024 can't be fully evaluated without addressing the cadence of activity in December. Dan made this point through vending transactions in his review.

    到 2024 年,我們的高層營收趨勢不會有太大變化。也就是說,如果不解決 12 月的活動節奏,就無法對 2024 年第四季進行全面評估。丹在他的評論中通過自動售貨交易提出了這一點。

  • We see the same thing in daily sales to our top 100 customers, which grew low to mid-single digits in the first 15 days of December, but declined more than 20% in the final five days. While holiday-related productions downs occur most years, sustained marketplace weakness and the midweek timing of Christmas and New Years produced uncommonly sharp cuts in December of 2024.

    我們在對前 100 名客戶的每日銷售中也看到了同樣的情況,12 月的前 15 天,銷售額增長了低到中等個位數,但在最後五天下降了 20% 以上。雖然大多數年份都會出現與假期相關的產量下降,但持續的市場疲軟以及聖誕節和新年的周中時間導致 2024 年 12 月產量出現異常大幅下降。

  • And we believe that the last five business days of December swung the month from trending towards 3% plus growth to finishing flat. Now zooming back out, we remain encouraged heading into 2025. The PMI is still sub-50, underlying business activity remains slow and the start of January was impacted by New Year's and winter storms.

    我們認為,12 月的最後五個工作日使該月的經濟從 3% 以上的成長趨勢轉變為持平。現在回顧過去,我們仍然對 2025 年充滿信心。PMI 仍低於 50,基礎商業活動仍然緩慢,並且 1 月初受到新年和冬季風暴的影響。

  • The latter disrupted business activity in our Southern US regions reflected in our needing to cancel 6% of our truck routes through January 10. On the other hand, regional leadership sites broadening post-election customer optimism for 2025. We continue to sign new business at a strong rate with our contract base growing double digits, including up 12% in December.

    後者擾亂了我們美國南部地區的業務活動,導致我們需要取消截至 1 月 10 日 6% 的卡車路線。另一方面,地區領導網站增強了選舉後顧客對 2025 年的樂觀情緒。我們繼續以強勁的速度簽訂新業務,合約基數實現兩位數成長,其中 12 月成長了 12%。

  • We believe these wins are beginning to be reflected in sales. Our monthly daily sales rate exceeded the historical sequential in three of the last five months, and we believe it would have been four of the last five but for how December finished.

    我們相信這些勝利已開始在銷售中得到體現。在過去五個月中,有三個月我們的月度日銷售率超過了歷史連續銷售率,並且我們相信,如果不是12 月份的收官表現,過去五個月中會有四個月的月度日銷售率超過歷史連續銷售率。

  • As we move forward, we anticipate we will see revenue from these customer signings continue to build. Now to slide 7. Operating margin in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 18.9%, down 120 basis points year to year. Gross margin was as expected.

    隨著我們不斷前進,我們預計這些客戶簽約帶來的收入將持續增加。現在看投影片 7。2024年第四季營業利益率為18.9%,較去年同期下降120個基點。毛利率符合預期。

  • On top of that, our SG&A dollars in the fourth quarter of 2024 were largely in line with the first three quarters of 2024 as investments in Onsite staffing, technology and data and sales travel were offset with greater control over more discretionary costs. We continue to believe we are managing costs effectively.

    除此之外,由於對現場人員配備、技術和數據以及銷售旅行的投資得到了對更多可自由支配成本的更好控制的抵消,我們在2024 年第四季度的銷售、一般和行政管理費用與2024 年前三個季度基本持平。我們仍然相信我們正在有效地管理成本。

  • We expected operating margin to decline due to the effects of slow growth as we've seen all year. That the deleverage was sharper in the current period than experienced in the first three quarters of '24 reflects our seasonally lowest volume quarter and the shutdown impacts.

    我們預計,由於全年成長緩慢的影響,營業利潤率將會下降。本期去槓桿率比24年前三個季度更為顯著,反映了我們季節性交易量最低的季度和停工的影響。

  • Gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 44.8%, down 70 basis points from the year ago period, primarily from positive customer mix. We also experienced product margin pressure, which was partly offset by higher rebates reflecting year-end opportunities to assist suppliers in leaning out their inventory. The product margin pressure was largely due to shipping, with higher container cost affecting fasteners and expedited shipments to warehousing customers during the holiday season affecting safety products.

    2024 年第四季的毛利率為 44.8%,較去年同期下降 70 個基點,主要由於積極的客戶組合。我們也面臨產品利潤率壓力,但這部分被更高的回扣所抵消,回扣的提高反映了年底幫助供應商減少庫存的機會。產品利潤壓力主要來自於運輸,貨櫃成本上漲影響了緊固件,而節日期間向倉儲客戶的加急發貨又影響了安全產品。

  • We have made price adjustments to offset the higher container costs and the expedited shipments should not recur, meaning most of the product margin pressure in the fourth quarter of 2024 should not carry into the first quarter of 2025. SG&A was 25.9% of sales in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 25.3% from the year ago period.

    我們已經進行了價格調整以抵消更高的貨櫃成本,並且加急運輸應該不會再次發生,這意味著 2024 年第四季的大部分產品利潤壓力不應該延續到 2025 年第一季。2024 年第四季,銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的 25.9%,高於去年同期的 25.3%。

  • The largest impacts are from higher lease costs as we refresh our field pickup fleet and a currency revaluation on certain assets that relates to the stronger dollar. The effects of areas such as IT expense and general insurance loss were marginally negative. We continue to believe that as growth picks up, we will leverage the P&L.

    最大的影響是由於我們更新現場皮卡車隊導致的租賃成本上升,以及由於美元走強導致的某些資產的貨幣重估。IT費用和一般保險損失等領域的影響略顯負面。我們仍然相信,隨著成長的加快,我們將利用損益。

  • Putting it all together, we reported fourth quarter 2024 EPS of $0.46, flat with the fourth quarter of 2023. Now turning to slide 8. We generated $282.8 million in operating cash in the fourth quarter of 2024 or 108% of net income.

    綜合考慮所有因素,我們報告 2024 年第四季每股收益為 0.46 美元,與 2023 年第四季持平。現在翻到第 8 張投影片。我們在 2024 年第四季產生了 2.828 億美元的營運現金,佔淨收入的 108%。

  • We generated $1.2 billion in operating cash for the full year of 2024 or 102% of net income. Our cash conversion in both periods was below the comparable periods in 2023, however, this mostly reflects the effects of inventory buildup and subsequent wind-down related to tight supply chains being fully past us, and we view the conversion rates in 2024 as being largely consistent with expectations.

    我們 2024 年全年的營運現金為 12 億美元,佔淨收入的 102%。這兩個時期的現金轉換率均低於 2023 年的可比較時期,但這主要反映了庫存累積和隨後因供應鏈緊張而導致的庫存減少的影響,我們認為 2024 年的轉換率在很大程度上與預期一致。

  • We continue to carry a conservatively capitalized balance sheet with year-end debt being 5.2% of total capital. Given our current strong capital position and confidence in the future cash-generating capability of our model, we increased our dividend by 10%.

    我們繼續保持保守的資本化資產負債表,年末債務佔總資本的 5.2%。鑑於我們目前強大的資本狀況以及對我們模型未來現金創造能力的信心,我們將股息提高了 10%。

  • Accounts receivable were up 1.9%, driven primarily by sales growth. Inventories were up 8%. We added $30 million to $35 million related to our initiatives to improve product availability in our in-market locations and improve picking efficiencies in our hubs. Opportunistic year-end buys added roughly $10 million, and we added stock to support customer growth, including anticipated incremental growth in the warehousing space.

    應收帳款上漲1.9%,主要受銷售成長推動。庫存增加了8%。我們增加了 3000 萬至 3500 萬美元的資金,用於改善我們市場內地點的產品供應情況並提高我們樞紐的揀貨效率。機會性的年底採購增加了約 1000 萬美元,並且我們增加了庫存以支持客戶成長,包括倉儲空間預期的增量增長。

  • And we accelerated some inventory ceded for future delivery into current periods ahead of potential new tariffs. Accounts payable were up 8.9%, reflecting the increasing inventories. Net capital spending in 2024 was $214 million, up versus $161 million in 2023, but below our projected range of $235 million to $265 million.

    在可能出台的新關稅之前,我們將部分已轉讓以供未來交付的庫存加速到當前時期。應付帳款上漲8.9%,反映庫存增加。2024 年的淨資本支出為 2.14 億美元,高於 2023 年的 1.61 億美元,但低於我們預測的 2.35 億美元至 2.65 億美元範圍。

  • This related to lower purchases of FMI bins and fewer inflations of modular picking units in our in-market locations. Looking to 2025, we anticipate net capital spending of $265 million to $285 million. We're anticipating another step-up in FMI signings, which will require additional (inaudible) spend.

    這與我們市場內 FMI 箱的購買量減少以及模組化揀選單元的通貨膨脹率降低有關。展望 2025 年,我們預期淨資本支出將達到 2.65 億至 2.85 億美元。我們預計 FMI 簽約數量將再次增加,這將需要額外的(聽不清楚)支出。

  • We're increasing IT spend to reflect projects that moved from 2024 to 2025, and an expansion of projects aimed at developing additional digital capabilities. Lastly, distribution center spending is up to reflect completion of our new Utah hub, the beginning of construction on our new Atlanta hub and incremental automated picking additions across our hub network.

    我們正在增加 IT 支出,以反映從 2024 年到 2025 年的項目,以及旨在開發更多數位能力的項目的擴展。最後,配送中心支出將反映我們新的猶他州樞紐的完工、新的亞特蘭大樞紐的開始建設以及整個樞紐網絡的自動揀選系統的逐步增加。

  • We believe net CapEx is likely to be 3% to 3.5% of sales over the next few years, an increase from 2.7% to 3.2%, largely related to greater incremental capacity upgrades across our distribution center network. Now before moving on to Q&A, a couple of items of housekeeping.

    我們認為,未來幾年淨資本支出可能佔銷售額的 3% 至 3.5%,從 2.7% 增至 3.2%,這主要與我們配送中心網路的增量容量升級有關。在進入問答環節之前,先來談談幾件瑣事。

  • First, a little color on our decision to not provide Onsite sign targets beginning in 2025. When we first unveiled the Onsite strategy in 2014 to '15, we were challenged with driving internal participation and building scale to justify the investment in the initiative.

    首先,我們決定從 2025 年開始不再提供現場標誌目標。當我們在 2014 年至 2015 年首次推出現場策略時,我們面臨的挑戰是推動內部參與和擴大規模以證明對該計劃的投資是合理的。

  • Today, Onsite represent nearly 45% of our sales and are fully integrated into the value proposition we offer customers. Getting to this point has prioritized wallet share with existing customers over winning new customers. And at this time, it's appropriate to seek greater balance between those two things.

    如今,Onsite 占我們銷售額的近 45%,並完全融入我們為客戶提供的價值主張中。要達到這一點,我們必須優先考慮與現有客戶的錢包份額,而不是贏得新客戶。此時,尋求兩者之間的更大平衡是適當的。

  • Onsites will continue to provide a market advantage for Fastenal, and we'll continue to sign them. However, our success is not solely defined by how many Onsites we sign. It is defined by how many customers we signed that are doing or can do $10,000 or more in sales per month, whether that's through an Onsite or through a branch.

    Onsites 將繼續為 Fastenal 提供市場優勢,我們也將繼續與他們簽約。然而,我們的成功並不僅僅取決於我們簽署了多少 Onsites。它取決於我們簽約的客戶數量,這些客戶的每月銷售額達到或能夠達到 10,000 美元或以上,無論是透過現場還是透過分公司。

  • To ensure internal and external stakeholders are focusing on organizationally meaningful data, in the first quarter of 2025, we will begin providing customer data along the lines of what Dan discussed at the start of this call. Second, we are planning to host an Investor Day in Minneapolis on March 13.

    為了確保內部和外部利害關係人專注於具有組織意義的數據,我們將在 2025 年第一季開始按照 Dan 在本次電話會議開始時討論的內容提供客戶數據。第二,我們計劃於3月13日在明尼阿波利斯舉辦投資者日。

  • We plan on providing an update on our end market network, which remains critical to our success, but has evolved in the last few years to support a key account strategy. This will be reinforced for the tour of a local branch that as a great representation of our industrial supply house profile.

    我們計劃對我們的終端市場網路進行更新,這對我們的成功仍然至關重要,但在過去幾年中已經發展以支援關鍵客戶策略。參觀當地分支機構將進一步強化這一點,因為這將很好地展示我們工業供應商的形象。

  • We will discuss not only our tools and capabilities, but how we deploy them in a truly integrated fashion to provide a parallel value to our customers in terms of supply chain cost, risk and scalability.

    我們不僅會討論我們的工具和能力,還會討論如何以真正整合的方式部署它們,以便在供應鏈成本、風險和可擴展性方面為我們的客戶提供平行的價值。

  • And last, we will do a deeper dive into the strategic plan we've developed throughout 2024, which is heavily centered on the digitization of tools and capabilities, including AI, to improve our service and addressable market. We'll be sending out invites to the event over the next week.

    最後,我們將深入研究我們在 2024 年制定的策略計劃,該計劃主要集中在工具和功能的數位化(包括人工智慧)上,以改善我們的服務和潛在市場。我們將在下週發出活動邀請。

  • With that, operator, we'll turn it over to begin the Q&A.

    接線生,接下來我們將開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

    (操作員指示)瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

  • Ryan Merkel - Analyst

    Ryan Merkel - Analyst

  • Holden, congratulations. It's been great working with you and I wish you all the best.

    霍爾頓,恭喜你。與您合作非常愉快,祝您一切順利。

  • Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Ryan Merkel - Analyst

    Ryan Merkel - Analyst

  • So my first question, I guess I want to ask about the shutdowns and then the comment that customer sentiment is more optimistic. So I guess how do you marry those two comments?

    所以我的第一個問題是關於停工的情況,然後問一下客戶情緒比較樂觀的評論。那麼我想問一下您該如何將這兩則評論結合起來呢?

  • Why do you think the shutdowns this year were so intense? And then what are you hearing on customer sentiment, if you can be more specific? Like do you expect trends to improve in '25 and why do you think that?

    您認為今年的停工為何如此嚴厲?那麼,您聽到的客戶情緒是怎麼樣的呢?您是否預期 25 年趨勢會有所改善以及為什麼這麼認為?

  • Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Ryan, thanks for the question. I'll touch on the shutdowns piece, and then how that counters the sentiment. I think every organization gets to January 1. And it's a new year, and it's either -- and it's always what can we do to improve on what we just did, whether you had a great year or a weak year.

    Ryan,謝謝你的提問。我將談談關閉部分,然後談談它如何反擊這種情緒。我認為每個組織都會到達 1 月 1 日。新的一年,我們總是在思考如何改進我們剛剛做的事情,不管這一年是好的一年還是不好的一年。

  • That's just -- I think many people are just wired. So -- but I also look at it and say, there might be some folks that just got through stage 2024 and they're like it's been a mediocre year. And we've been leaning up our balance sheet, maybe we've been leaning up our inventory, whatever it might be.

    那隻是——我認為很多人都是這麼想的。所以 — — 但我也會看著它說,可能有些人剛度過 2024 階段,他們會覺得這是平庸的一年。我們一直在精簡我們的資產負債表,或許我們一直在精簡我們的庫存,不管它是什麼。

  • And that's just shut down, it's get the equipment fixed up and ready for the new year, get everybody's batteries recharged. And I think I had a lot of folks that didn't have a reason to stay open over the holidays, and so they chose not to.

    這就是關閉工廠,修好設備,為新的一年做好準備,讓每個人的電池都充滿電。我認為有很多客戶在假期期間沒有理由繼續營業,所以他們選擇不營業。

  • Holden, if you want to add on the sentiment part, from a customer standpoint, you talked to a lot of our regionals. But I think a lot of folks are looking at their trends and does that make them feel better. The recent election and what that might mean for regulation probably is a lift of burden from the -- a lot of our customers in the marketplace. Holden?

    霍頓,如果您想補充情感部分,從客戶的角度來看,您已經與我們許多地區人員進行了交談。但我認為很多人都在關注他們的趨勢,這是否會讓他們感覺更好。最近的選舉對監管可能意味著減輕市場上許多客戶的負擔。霍頓?

  • Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I mean the -- when I talk about the improving sentiment, what I'll say is in November, when we reported sales, I mean, there's clearly postelection step-up in terms of what the RVPs are feeding back to me about. People are feeling a little bit better about things. I think there's just the -- there's value and knowing.

    是的。我的意思是——當我談到情緒改善時,我會說在11 月份,當我們報告銷售情況時,我的意思是,從RVP 向我反饋的情況來看,選舉後銷售情況明顯有所改善。人們對現狀的感覺稍微好了一點。我認為,這只是——有價值和了解。

  • And I think that a lot of uncertainty was perhaps dissipated once we got through the election. I will say that the tone from the RVPs was fairly universal about that sentiment continuing to get better heading into next year. And so that's a fairly qualitative read on things.

    我認為,一旦我們完成選舉,許多不確定性可能就會消失。我想說的是,RVP 的語氣相當普遍,這種情緒在明年將繼續好轉。這是對事物相當定性的解讀。

  • But nonetheless, I've over time learned to really respect the feedback of the RVPs because they really do feel what's going on in the marketplace in real time and pretty intimately. So I think there's value in that. But I also would argue that I'm not sure there's an inconsistency between aggressively shutting down in the back half of December and feeling better about 2025.

    但儘管如此,隨著時間的推移,我學會了真正尊重 RVP 的回饋,因為他們確實能夠即時、非常深入地了解市場上正在發生的事情。所以我認為這是有價值的。但我也想說,我不確定 12 月下半月積極關閉與對 2025 年感覺更好之間是否存在矛盾。

  • Again, as Dan indicated, there's something magical about moving from 12/31 to 1/1. And I think that a lot of companies in the face of a second challenging year were looking to clear the decks and move into 2025 with as little overhang from inventory and things of that nature as they can. And I think that probably a relationship between exactly what happened in the back half of December and the very beginning of January, and customers feeling better about what comes next.

    再說一次,正如丹所指出的,從 12/31 到 1/1 有一些神奇的事情。我認為,許多公司在面臨第二個充滿挑戰的年份時,都希望做好準備,以盡可能減少庫存積壓和諸如此類的事情的發生,從而順利進入 2025 年。我認為這可能與 12 月下半月至 1 月初發生的事情有關,顧客對接下來發生的事情感覺更好。

  • Ryan Merkel - Analyst

    Ryan Merkel - Analyst

  • Yes. No, I think that makes sense. That's helpful. And then my second question, thanks for the disclosure and it makes sense. And I think I'm a little surprised by how concentrated your sales are. It's more than I thought.

    是的。不,我認為這是有道理的。這很有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題,感謝您的披露,這是有道理的。我認為你們的銷售集中度讓我有點驚訝。這比我想像的還要多。

  • I just want to make sure I'm understanding this right. 1% of sites are roughly 50% of sales, and those sites tend to be Onsite like, I think, is what you said. So should we be reading that as 1% of Onsite, which is like 20 Onsites is 50% sales, am I understanding that right?

    我只是想確保我理解得正確。 1% 的網站大約佔銷售額的 50%,而且這些網站往往是現場的,我想這就是您所說的。那麼我們是否應該將其理解為現場銷售的 1%,也就是 20 個現場銷售佔銷售額的 50%,我理解得對嗎?

  • Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, no, no. We've always said -- when we started the Onsite program a number of years ago, we said, at that time, about 10% of our revenue came from a few hundred Onsites. And what we saw with Onsite was a lot of times our branch personnel, there was business they didn't go after in a facility because the economics didn't work for them on how they were paid.

    不,不,不。我們總是說——當我們幾年前啟動 Onsite 計劃時,我們說,當時我們大約 10% 的收入來自幾百個 Onsites。我們在 Onsite 看到的情況是,很多時候我們的分公司人員沒有在設施內開展業務,因為從經濟角度來看,他們的薪酬方式不適合他們。

  • Because not all the spend is 50%, there's a bunch of production business that might be in the 30s. There's other business that might be in the 40s. And in the way our cost structure works, if you think back to the time our cost structure in the branch was 30% of sales, 32% of sales.

    因為並不是所有的支出都是 50%,所以有很多生產業務的支出可能會在 30% 左右。還有其他業務可能在 40 年代。我們的成本結構是這樣的,如果你回想一下,當時我們分公司的成本結構是銷售額的 30%、32%。

  • And you didn't want 35% margin business. But in an Onsite, when we started talking about it, our average Onsite had gross margins between 35% and 40%. But the operating expenses were just shy of -- in the upper teens. So from a pretax and a return standpoint, it was a nice business. But you have to think about it differently and had to rejigger everything.

    你也不想要利潤率為 35% 的業務。但是在現場,當我們開始談論它時,我們的平均現場毛利率在 35% 到 40% 之間。但營運費用略低於百分之十幾。因此,從稅前和回報的角度來看,這是一項不錯的業務。但你必須以不同的方式思考這個問題,並重新調整一切。

  • And so we have roughly 2,000 Onsites, and that's a little bit over 40% of revenue. In addition to those 2,000 Onsites, we have another 500 customers roughly, where we do $70,000 a month, $60,000 a month, $80,000 a month, but we do it out of the branch.

    我們有大約 2,000 個現場服務,佔總收入的 40% 多一點。除了這 2,000 名現場客戶外,我們還有另外約 500 名客戶,每月收入分別為 70,000 美元、60,000 美元、80,000 美元,但我們是在分行外進行。

  • And the branch is just -- the general manager in that branch looks at this and said, this -- I might get hurt on my pay plan, but this is a good business for us and it's a good business for me and the team. And it's good business -- and you think about it as a business person.

    而分行只是——該分行的總經理看到這個然後說,這個——我的薪酬計劃可能會受到影響,但這對我們來說是一筆好生意,對我和團隊來說也是一件好生意。這是一筆好生意——你可以以商人的角度來思考這個問題。

  • And so that -- those 2,500 locations represent about 48% of sales, and they all do more than $50,000 a month. But there are a set of customers that do more than $10,000 a month that represent over 75% of our sales.

    這 2,500 家門市的銷售額約佔總銷售額的 48%,每月銷售額均超過 50,000 美元。但有一批客戶的月銷售額超過 1 萬美元,占我們銷售額的 75% 以上。

  • But Ryan, that's no different than if you think about it years ago, hey, we have 100 active customers in this branch and 10 of them represent 65% to 70% of sales. And it was probably more like 80% of sales, but we didn't measure it that way because there was a bunch of customers at multiple account numbers. Does that make sense?

    但瑞安,如果你仔細想想幾年前的情況,你會發現這和現在沒什麼不同,嘿,我們在這個分行有 100 個活躍客戶,其中 10 個佔銷售額的 65% 到 70%。這可能更像是 80% 的銷售額,但我們沒有這樣衡量,因為有很多客戶擁有多個帳號。這樣有道理嗎?

  • Ryan Merkel - Analyst

    Ryan Merkel - Analyst

  • Right. It does, yes.

    正確的。是的,確實如此。

  • Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yes. And the color I may add to that is, first off, I'm not sure that 80/20 is unique to Fastenal's business. I don't know everybody else's businesses, but I would suspect that there's an element of 80/20 in most businesses that are out there. I'll grant you, we're more like 80/10.

    是的。我想補充的是,首先,我不確定 80/20 是否是 Fastenal 業務所獨有的。我不清楚其他人的企業,但我認為大多數企業都存在 80/20 的因素。我同意你的說法,我們的比例更像是 80/10。

  • But the other thing, I think, to think about is where we're genuinely special in the marketplace is in engaging with customers that have very large, very complex supply chains. Those tend to be larger, multinational, global or national businesses.

    但我認為,要考慮的另一件事是,我們在市場上真正的特殊之處在於與擁有非常龐大、非常複雜的供應鏈的客戶打交道。這些企業往往規模較大,為跨國、全球或全國性企業。

  • And so that's because of the breadth of our toolbox and the ability of our services to uniquely affect that complexity, those types of customers tend to come to our business fairly organically simply because of that capability that we have, contrast to perhaps a purely transactional model which might get to a lot more customers, but fewer sales, right? So there's an element of our model in there as well.

    因此,由於我們工具箱的廣度和我們服務對這種複雜性的獨特影響能力,這些類型的客戶往往會相當自然地來到我們的業務,僅僅是因為我們擁有這種能力,而不是純粹的交易模式這樣可能會吸引更多的客戶,但銷售量會減少,對嗎?因此其中也包含我們模型的一個元素。

  • Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • But added nugget I'll give you is if you go back to 2007, when we announced we were going to -- we received saturation in the location comp. And we were slowing it down and we were turning energy into things like automating our warehouse, things like vending, and what we call this the pathway to profit, we said, here's the next step of our business.

    但我要補充的是,如果回顧 2007 年,當時我們宣布我們將要——我們的地點補償已經飽和。我們正在放慢腳步,將精力投入到諸如倉庫自動化、自動販賣機等事情上,我們稱之為獲利途徑,我們說,這是我們業務的下一步。

  • At that point in time, customers doing more than $10,000 a month, there were about 2,600 of them and represented about 40% of sales. And so in the years since 2007, we weren't opening locations as fast, but we were rolling out vending devices.

    當時,月收入超過 1 萬美元的客戶約有 2,600 名,佔銷售額的 40% 左右。因此,自 2007 年以來,我們開設門市的速度並沒有那麼快,但我們推出了自動販賣機設備。

  • A number of years later, we're rolling out Onsite. And we're getting better and better at nonfasteners. And so fasteners keep dropping as a percentage of our business. Our business blossomed as we deeper into that and our ability to grow actually accelerated.

    幾年後,我們推出了 Onsite。我們在非緊固件方面做得越來越好。因此緊固件在我們業務中所佔的比例持續下降。隨著我們深入研究這一點,我們的業務蓬勃發展,我們的成長能力實際上也在加速。

  • And so the concentration, if you will, is a sign of success with that group of customers. Because when -- if you look at customers doing less than, say, $5,000 a month, they don't necessarily benefit from bending because if they did, they wouldn't be a $3,000 a month customer, they'd be a $9,000 month customer because they have enough -- the things we bring to the table and to the supply chain, benefits the business more.

    因此,如果你願意的話,這種專注度就是該客戶群成功的標誌。因為當——如果你看看每月收入低於5,000 美元的客戶,他們不一定會從屈服中受益,因為如果他們這樣做了,他們就不是每月3,000 美元的客戶,而是每月9,000 美元的客戶因為他們擁有足夠的東西──我們帶到談判桌上和供應鏈中的東西,能為企業帶來更多利益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Manthey, Baird.

    大衛曼蒂,貝爾德。

  • David Manthey - Analyst

    David Manthey - Analyst

  • Yes. Clearly, there's always been a 80-20 rule at Fastenal. But as we look at slide 4 and think about the big picture -- and maybe you'll elucidate this on the -- at the Investor Day, but is 96% of the customer sites generating 22% of sales, is that an opportunity? Or is that just the way it is? How do you view that?

    是的。顯然,Fastenal 一直奉行 80-20 法則。但是,當我們觀看幻燈片 4 並思考整體情況時——也許您會在投資者日闡明這一點,但 96% 的客戶網站是否創造了 22% 的銷售額,這是一個機會嗎?或者說事實就是如此?您如何看待這一點?

  • Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's always an opportunity. When I have -- throughout the course of the year along with Jeff and Holden and a handful of our leaders, we have discussions with every one of our district managers. And in there, we talk about what's their opportunity. And history has told me that we have approaching 10 Onsites per DM.

    這始終是一個機會。在這一年中,我和傑夫、霍爾頓以及我們的一些領導者一起,與每位地區經理進行了討論。在那裡,我們談論他們的機會是什麼。歷史經驗告訴我,我們每個 DM 接近 10 個 Onsites。

  • It's around seven or eight on average Onsites per DM. But we've identified the potential on average for 58. And so it's an incredible opportunity in the marketplace, because we're really, really good at planned spend. And we're really, really good at helping with supply chain. And you think about what are some of the macro things going on in the marketplace right now.

    每條 DM 平均有七到八場現場留言。但我們已確定平均潛力為 58。所以這是市場上一個難以置信的機會,因為我們在計劃支出方面確實非常擅長。我們非常非常擅長幫助供應鏈。你想想現在市場上正在發生哪些宏觀事件。

  • One of the macro things is there's not enough people for the jobs this year, five years from now, 10 years from now. So how does a manufacturer solve that? Well, one of them might be, hey, let's bring in Fastenal and help with supply chain. They're incredibly good at it with their vending platform, they move the product closer to the point of use, that creates productivity in our facility.

    一個宏觀問題是,今年、五年後、十年後,這些職位都沒有足夠的人才。那麼製造商該如何解決這個問題呢?好吧,其中之一可能是,嘿,讓我們引入 Fastenal 來幫助供應鏈。他們的自動販賣機平台非常出色,他們將產品移動到更接近使用點,從而提高了我們工廠的生產力。

  • And by the way, what we're doing with 10 people in a very inefficient manner, Fastenalcan do with three or four and they can actually increase the level of supply chain service in my facility, and we operate more effectively.

    順便說一句,我們現在用 10 個人做事效率很低,而 Fastenal 只用三四個人就能做,而且他們實際上可以提高我工廠的供應鏈服務水平,讓我們的運營更加高效。

  • I see it as an incredible opportunity, and that's why we continue to invest in the things we're doing. And we're going to touch on a whole bunch of that, Dave, at our Investor Day as well. But I'm more excited about our opportunity to grow in the next 10 years than maybe I was 10 years ago.

    我認為這是一個難得的機會,這就是我們繼續投資於我們所做的事情的原因。戴夫,在我們的投資人日上,我們也將討論許多這方面的問題。但與十年前相比,我對我們未來十年的成長機會感到更加興奮。

  • Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yes. And I would probably add to that, you're right to think about it as the opportunity, but let's not narrow that down too much either. We measure -- we are successful in the buckets that we're successful in because we bring something special to that type of customer.

    是的。我可能還想補充一點,你把它視為一個機會是正確的,但我們也不要把它縮小得太小。我們進行衡量-我們之所以在各個領域都取得成功,是因為我們為這類客戶帶來了一些特別的東西。

  • We continue to broaden what it is that we're special at. We didn't use to be special at safety. But the introduction of vending brought that into a realm of specialist for Fastenal that I think others have not to scale in the way that we have. I think the same is true for that Onsite world.

    我們將繼續拓寬我們的專長。我們在安全方面以前並不擅長。但自動販賣機的引入使 Fastenal 進入了專業領域,我認為其他公司無法像我們一樣擴大規模。我想 Onsite 世界也是如此。

  • Is there an opportunity -- and so we're very good, we're special in that planned world. Is there an opportunity to, over time, move down these buckets more effectively by figuring out ways to get special and service customers in different ways.

    有機會嗎——所以我們非常好,我們在這個有計劃的世界中很特別。隨著時間的推移,是否有機會透過尋找以不同方式獲得特殊服務客戶的方法,更有效地降低這些成本。

  • Those are opportunities, not necessarily for the next six months or whatever you, but those are opportunities that exist over the next five years, 10 years' time. There's tremendous opportunity that exists within these buckets, but whether you want to think geographically, by product, what have you.

    這些機會不一定是未來六個月或以後的機會,但這些機會是未來五年、十年內存在的機會。這些領域中都蘊含著巨大的機遇,但無論你從地理位置或產品角度思考,你都擁有什麼呢?

  • Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Just to double down -- or doubling down on the question. I'll throw a little tidbit in too. When you holding this touch on, we get better being down those bucket sizes. Clearly, the bottom two buckets that list were impacted by COVID and by our decision a decade ago to not just slow down opening branches, but to actually consolidate branches.

    只是為了加倍努力——或加倍努力地回答這個問題。我也會提供一些小資訊。當你按住這個按鈕時,我們可以更好地縮小這些桶的尺寸。顯然,清單中排名最後的兩個項目受到了COVID 的影響,也受到了我們十年前做出的決定的影響,當時我們不僅放慢了開設分支機構的速度,而且實際上還整合了分支機構。

  • In that less than $5,000 bucket, what I can tell you is 98% of the decline in that bucket, from a standpoint of both customers and the revenue, came from -- there's two populations in that bucket. There's customers that spend between $500 and $5,000 that represent about 90% of the dollars in that bucket, and there's -- and they average about $1,000 a month with us.

    在低於 5,000 美元的組別中,我可以告訴你的是,從客戶和收入的角度來看,該組中 98% 的下降來自於——該組中有兩類人群。花費 500 至 5,000 美元的客戶佔該類別金額的約 90%,而他們在我們這裡的平均每月支出約為 1,000 美元。

  • The majority of the customers represent about 10% of that bucket and they, on average, spend $49 a month with us. And so it's really a case of being special on all of them. But I believe, over time, all these buckets grow because, as we become better and better at unplanned spend, the bottom two buckets is more about sales that look like unplanned spend than planned spend.

    大多數客戶約佔該群體的 10%,他們平均每月在我們這裡花費 49 美元。因此,這確實是一個在所有方面都很特殊的案例。但我相信,隨著時間的推移,所有這些桶都會增長,因為隨著我們在計劃外支出方面做得越來越好,底部兩個桶更多的是看起來像計劃外支出的銷售,而不是計劃內支出。

  • And then you're successful in all of them. But that smallest bucket, customer is under $500, it's a big group of customers, but it's about [a percent] of sales. And so it's really -- putting your energy and focus on being great supply chain partner to this group of customers, but that conveyor we have gone across North America, anybody can grab a box off it. And with our local footprint, we're better than anybody else out there or we could be.

    然後你就在所有的事情上都成功了。但是最小的那個群體,即消費金額低於 500 美元的客戶,是一大群客戶,但它約佔銷售額的 [百分之一]。所以這真的是——把你的精力和注意力放在成為這群客戶的優秀供應鏈合作夥伴上,但是我們穿過北美的傳送帶,任何人都可以從上面拿起一個箱子。憑藉我們在當地的影響力,我們比其他任何人都要好,或者說,我們可以做得更好。

  • David Manthey - Analyst

    David Manthey - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. Maybe you could just touch on tariffs. I'm sure someone else had asked this, too, but it's obviously a hot topic right now. Could you talk about how those pass through your contracts and how you're planning on making those happen, assuming that comes down the pipe here?

    好的。這很有幫助。也許您可以談談關稅。我確信其他人也問過這個問題,但這顯然是現在的熱門話題。您能否談談這些內容如何透過您的合約來實現,以及您計劃如何實現這些內容,假設這些內容在這裡得以實現?

  • Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • As we've talked on previous calls, we had to get good at tariffs. We were -- I mean, we were -- I think we've always been excellent in supply chain, but we had to get good at tariffs back in the 2018 time frame, 2017 time frame.

    正如我們在之前的電話中談到的那樣,我們必須掌握好關稅。我們——我的意思是,我認為我們在供應鏈方面一直表現出色,但我們必須在 2018 年、2017 年的時間範圍內做好關稅工作。

  • A lot of times, we focus on tariffs that have been -- that come into the United States. But tariffs are not something that's unique to the United States. Jeff, in leading our international business in years past, we've been going through tariffs coming into Mexico for the last 1.5 years. We've been going -- we've had tariffs as it relates to our Canadian market or other non-North American businesses.

    很多時候,我們關注的是已經進入美國的關稅。但關稅並不是美國獨有的。傑夫,在過去幾年領導我們的國際業務的過程中,我們在過去的 1.5 年裡一直在處理進入墨西哥的關稅。我們一直在徵收與加拿大市場或其他非北美業務相關的關稅。

  • So that skill isn't -- that knife isn't dull in our ability to be surgical. The -- we have great tools to manage that. We have great ability to give visibility to our customers. Because it's not just about what we do on how -- to make sure we manage it in our P&L. That's important everybody on this call, don't get me wrong.

    所以,我們的手術技巧並不遲鈍──手術刀也不鈍。我們有很好的工具來管理這一點。我們有能力為客戶提供可見性。因為這不僅關乎我們如何做——還要確保我們在損益表中進行管理。這對參加這次電話會議的每個人來說都很重要,請不要誤會我的意思。

  • What's really important is our ability to give visibility to that to our customer, and allow our customers to make decisions, because then we're special to them. We're not special just us, we're special to both of us and that's a great supply chain partner. And we're really, really good at that.

    真正重要的是我們有能力讓客戶了解這一點,並允許客戶做出決定,因為我們對他們來說很特別。我們不只是我們自己特別,對我們雙方來說我們都很特別,因此我們是一位出色的供應鏈合作夥伴。我們在這方面確實非常擅長。

  • We had a lot of conversations with our -- unrelated to tariffs, we had a lot of conversations with customers, and we diverted a chunk of containers late in the year because there was a risk of a port strike. And we were able to study all the containers coming in and had conversations.

    我們與客戶進行了很多對話,與關稅無關,我們在年底轉移了大量貨櫃,因為有港口罷工的風險。我們可以研究所有進入的貨櫃並進行對話。

  • I think it was about 40 containers that we have -- 35, 40 containers, we had conversations with customers and said we believe the best risk avoidance for your business is we'll spend a little bit extra money. We'll bring it into the West Coast, and we're bringing it across North America, instead of bringing to the East Coast. Because that shuts down -- that's a production item that you need in February or that's something you need in March, and we do not want to put your business at risk.

    我想我們大約有 40 個貨櫃——35、40 個貨櫃,我們與客戶進行了交談並表示,我們認為對您的業務而言,最好的規避風險的方法就是我們願意多花一點錢。我們會把它帶進西岸,帶到北美各地,而不是到東岸。因為那會關閉——那是您在二月需要的生產項目,或者是您在三月需要的生產項目,我們不想讓您的業務面臨風險。

  • And we diverted 35, 40 containers. As it turned out, it didn't need to be, but that's what a great side chain partner does. But we are well poised to communicate and react to whatever happens, and it's going to be an unpredictable world starting on January 20th -- frankly, it's been an unpredictable world over the last 10 years. So that's new. It's just maybe the intensity of how that happens quickly, might change, too.

    我們轉移了35至40個貨櫃。事實證明,這並不必要,但這正是一個優秀的側鏈夥伴所做的。但我們已經做好了充分的準備,隨時溝通,並對可能發生的任何事情做出反應。是難以預測的。這是新的。只是這種情況發生的快速程度也可能會改變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tommy Moll, Stephens.

    湯米·莫爾,史蒂芬斯。

  • Thomas Moll - Analyst

    Thomas Moll - Analyst

  • Dan, you made a comment early about eCommerce, and I think a nexus there with unplanned spend and opportunity to improve. Can you just unpack that a little bit for us, maybe give us a teaser of what's coming here in March?

    丹,你早些時候對電子商務發表了評論,我認為這與計劃外支出和改進機會有關。您能否為我們稍微解釋一下,或是給我們透露三月將要發生的事情?

  • Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So some stuff we've talked about. We've talked about the fact that we expanded the stocking levels of certain SKUs in our distribution centers. In 2019, we pulled back some stuff that's less common. And in hindsight, that was a mistake and we reversed that. There's three aspects to it.

    是的。我們已經討論過一些事情。我們已經討論過擴大配送中心某些 SKU 的庫存水準這一事實。2019 年,我們撤回了一些不太常見的內容。現在回想起來,那是一個錯誤,我們已經糾正了它。這有三個面向。

  • One aspect to it is when you pull that from the shelf in distribution, you create a lot more work for the local team because they have to go and source that product down. The second thing is you delay when we can get the product for the customer, and there might be some sales we lost as a result.

    其中一個面向是,當你在分銷過程中將產品從貨架上撤下時,你會為當地團隊帶來更多的工作,因為他們必須去採購該產品。第二件事是,我們向客戶交付產品的時間延遲了,結果我們可能會損失一些銷售。

  • And the third is when you're buying stuff in a rush, you don't buy better than when you buy in a planned fashion. And so we believe there's some margin opportunities to all that inventory that we're adding to the balance sheet as we move into 2025.

    第三,當你匆忙購買東西時,你購買的效果並不比有計劃地購買更好。因此,我們相信,隨著我們進入 2025 年,我們添加到資產負債表的所有庫存都存在一些利潤機會。

  • And we need margin opportunities to generate a return or our CFO will give me the stink eye look. And -- but more importantly, freeing up that time and given our ability to say yes more is important. Think of the eCom and think of that smaller customer, and that less than $5,000, they hop on the website to order something and it shows unavailable or contact the branch.

    我們需要獲利機會來創造回報,否則我們的財務長會給我白眼。而且——但更重要的是,騰出時間並賦予我們更多說「是」的能力很重要。想想電子商務,想想那些規模較小的客戶,金額不到 5,000 美元,他們登入網站訂購東西,卻顯示不可用或聯繫分行。

  • And that's something that maybe it's a fairly common -- maybe it's an infrequently purchased, but not uncommon faster. In the mindset of that customer, the $5,000, they should look at Fastenal as these folks are awesome at fasteners. They're awesome at safety. When I hop on their website and order something, it's easy to -- the website is easy to use.

    這也許是一種相當常見的現象——也許不經常購買,但並不罕見。從那位花 5,000 美元購買商品的客戶的角度來看,他們應該考慮 Fastenal,因為這些人在緊固件方面非常出色。他們的安全意識很強。當我訪問他們的網站並訂購東西時,很容易——該網站很容易使用。

  • And their depth in this is incredible, and they can say, yes, it's sitting in our distribution center in Monona, we'll have it in green base for all morning. What time do you need it because our truck hits at 5 a.m. And so that's different than hopping on and seeing call the branch at Green Bay.

    他們在這方面的深度令人難以置信,他們可以說,是的,它就在我們位於莫諾納的配送中心,我們整個上午都會把它放在綠色基地。您需要什麼時間送達,因為我們的卡車早上 5 點到達。

  • And so part of it is by adding that inventory, it shows a different availability. The other step we've been doing is increasing with our supplier base, better connection of show us your availability and your level of service. So even if we don't have it in the hub, we can show on the website to the individual, hey, it's sitting in St. Paul at our supplier and we can get to you in two days.

    因此,透過新增庫存,可以顯示不同的可用性。我們採取的另一個措施是擴大我們的供應商基礎,更好地與我們建立聯繫,向我們展示您的可用性和服務水準。因此,即使我們沒有在中心收到它,我們也可以在網站上向個人展示,嘿,它現在在聖保羅的我們的供應商處,我們可以在兩天內送到您手中。

  • If you need it faster than that, we can ship it, but that gets expensive. And we want to manage their costs. We want to minimize the cost of their supply chain. And so we give them optionality. The other piece, it does -- the other piece that we've incorporated late in the year is much better visibility to tracking.

    如果您需要更快的速度,我們可以發貨,但費用昂貴。我們希望管理他們的成本。我們希望盡量降低他們的供應鏈成本。因此我們給予他們選擇權。另一部分是,我們在今年年底納入的另一部分是更好的追蹤可見度。

  • In other words, it isn't just that it's available at the supplier in St. Paul, it's been picked up and it's in our truck going to Winona and it's going to transfer and get our truck going to Green Bay. My wife is Packer fan, that's why I'm using all these Green Bay examples.

    換句話說,它不僅僅是在聖保羅的供應商處有售,它還被取走並裝上我們開往威諾納的卡車,然後轉運到綠灣的卡車上。我的妻子是包裝工隊的球迷,這就是我使用所有這些綠灣例子的原因。

  • But it's a much different experience. And my example of a smaller customer, it could be the maintenance area of a $200,000 a month customer. But the way they engage with us is they hop on their punch-out list on their intra portal or they have -- and so it's eBusiness versus web.

    但這是一次非常不同的體驗。我舉的這個較小客戶的例子可能是每月收入 20 萬美元的客戶的維護區域。但是他們與我們互動的方式是,他們跳到其內部門戶上的打卡列表,或者他們有 - 因此這是電子商務與網絡的對比。

  • But regardless of what it is, that functionality exists for both and we are rapidly rolling out those pieces. But you can't roll out those pieces of facing to the customer until you had the pieces built behind the scenes, to have it available in the first place. Does that make sense, Tommy?

    但無論它是什麼,這兩者都具有該功能,我們正在迅速推出這些功能。但是,除非你在幕後建立好這些部分並首先讓它們可用,否則你無法將這些面向客戶的部分推出。這樣有道理嗎,湯米?

  • Thomas Moll - Analyst

    Thomas Moll - Analyst

  • Yes, and we look forward to furthering the discussion in March. Holden, a question for you on gross margins. You called out some of the impacts in the fourth quarter just in terms of the cost of moving product, highlighted how that should moderate here in the first quarter.

    是的,我們期待在三月進一步討論。霍爾頓,我想問您一個關於毛利率的問題。您指出了第四季度在產品運輸成本方面產生的一些影響,並強調了這種影響在第一季會如何緩和。

  • What can you do to frame for us what you view as your typical Q4 to Q1? And other than the factor I already mentioned, is there any other call out for this year in particular?

    您能做些什麼來向我們描述您認為的典型的 Q4 與 Q1 之間的關係?除了我已經提到的因素之外,今年還有其他特別需要注意的嗎?

  • Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I mean the Q4 to Q1 can usually be fairly volatile. So it was a pretty wide range of outcomes. But typically, you're going to see Q4 -- I'm sorry, Q1 increasing over where Q4 is noticeably. What I would tell you is, I think at this point in the year, and typically maybe give a bit of color on the full year more than the next quarter, when I think about gross margin in 2025, I think we have a shot at having a flattish gross margin year over year in 2025.

    是的。我的意思是第四季到第一季通常會相當不穩定。因此,結果的範圍相當廣泛。但通常情況下,你會看到 Q4——抱歉,Q1 比 Q4 有明顯的成長。我想告訴你的是,我認為在今年的這個時候,通常可能會比下一季對全年業績有更多了解,當我想到 2025 年的毛利率時,我認為我們有機會2025 年毛利率同比持平。

  • Now to some extent, the market will have a say in that. But we're getting a period where the -- we've had very weak fasteners and very strong safety. I think that gap is going to narrow. And if you get a little bit of improvement in the marketplace, you could see that gap narrow fairly meaningfully, if not reverse a little bit.

    現在從某種程度上來說,市場對此有發言權。但我們正處於一個時期——我們的緊固件非常薄弱,而安全性卻非常強。我認為差距將會縮小。如果市場稍微改善,你會看到差距相當明顯地縮小,甚至略有逆轉。

  • So I think the mix may not be the drag in 2025 that it has been in 2024. I think particularly in that warehousing space, we've talked about a couple of things that impacted us through a couple of quarters this year, I think there's a relatively easy comp there. So I think that the -- you have the usual pressures, but I think they're going to be moderated in 2025 versus what you had in 2024.

    因此,我認為,這種組合在 2025 年可能不會像 2024 年那樣造成拖累。我認為特別是在倉儲領域,我們已經討論過今年幾季對我們影響的一些事情,我認為那裡的比較相對容易。因此我認為——你有通常的壓力,但我認為到 2025 年,這種壓力將比 2024 年有所緩和。

  • And that's the -- I think how we can think through it. But typically, yes, Q1 will typically be above where Q4 is. And when you walk through how the various seasonalities work, I think something around flat to very slightly negative in 2025 is probably how we build it out.

    這就是──我想我們可以這樣思考。但通常情況下,Q1 通常會高於 Q4。當您了解各種季節性如何發揮作用時,我認為到 2025 年,我們的預測結果可能是持平或略微為負。

  • Thomas Moll - Analyst

    Thomas Moll - Analyst

  • Holden, we'll call that a setting the bar high, but not too high for your successor. Best of luck to the individual.

    霍爾頓,我們可以稱此為設定高標準,但對於你的繼任者來說,標準也不算太高。祝個人好運。

  • Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I see it's a couple of minutes before the hour. If there's a quick question, we'll take it. So I'll hold it a second.

    我看到現在離整點還有幾分鐘。如果有簡單的問題,我們會回答。因此我稍等片刻。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

    傑富瑞(Jefferies)的史蒂芬·福爾克曼(Stephen Volkmann)。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • All right. Holden, I'll just ask you the last quick follow-on. How should we think about operating expenses? I assume you'll have the normal increase in employee costs, anything else to think about?

    好的。霍爾頓,我只想問你最後一個快速的後續問題。我們應該如何考慮營運費用?我認為您的員工成本會正常增加,還有其他需要考慮的嗎?

  • Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Holden Lewis - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I mean operating expenses, 70% of our OpEx, of course, is labor. And so when we talk about being able to leverage against growth, labor plays a big part of that. But the other 30% should still be leverageable. I've always -- I don't think that the dynamic has changed.

    是的。我的意思是營運費用,當然,我們的營運支出的 70% 是勞動力。因此,當我們談論能夠利用成長時,勞動力在其中發揮著重要作用。但其餘 30% 仍應具有槓桿作用。我一直認為──動態並沒有改變。

  • I think that when we get to mid-single digits or above mid-single digits, we should be able to defend a mid-single-digit growth and we should be able to expand them above mid-single-digit growth. And I don't see any change to that profile at this point.

    我認為,當我們達到中等個位數或中等個位數以上時,我們應該能夠捍衛中等個位數的成長,並且我們應該能夠將其擴大到中等個位數以上。而目前我沒有看到該概況有任何變化。

  • And so as growth reasserts itself, as we hope it does next year, we should be at the high end of that 20% to 25% incremental margin would be the expectation. Oftentimes, I get asked why it's not more than that. Bear in mind, and Dan alluded to this in his preamble, in the first year of recovery, we have that shock absorber effect in our wages, right?

    因此,隨著成長重新確立,正如我們所希望的那樣,明年,我們應該處於預期 20% 至 25% 的增量利潤率的高端。我經常被問到為什麼沒有更多。請記住,丹在序言中提到了這一點,在復甦的第一年,我們的薪水有減震效應,對嗎?

  • We haven't been paying a lot of bonuses this year. If and when business gets better and pretax is growing more strongly, bonuses will reassert themselves. And that gives us a little less volatility, both on the upside and the downside. And so that's why in a world where we can see mid- to high single-digit growth, getting to the high end of that 20% to 25% incremental in the first year, that's what I think the expectation would be.

    我們今年還沒發很多獎金。如果業務好轉且稅前成長更加強勁,獎金將會重新顯現。這會讓我們的波動性稍微降低一些,無論是上行還是下行。所以,在我們能夠看到中高個位數成長的世界中,在第一年就達到 20% 到 25% 增量的高端,我認為這就是預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將發言權轉回給大家,以便大家可以發表進一步的評論或結束語。

  • Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Florness - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Just want to thank everybody for participating in our call today. As always, we'd like to stop, frankly, on the hour because we realize you have a lot of other companies you cover and a lot of other calls to hop on.

    我只想感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。像往常一樣,坦白說,我們想在整點時停下來,因為我們意識到您還有很多其他公司需要報道,還有很多其他電話需要接聽。

  • My thank you to the Fastenal team listening to this call for what you did in '24 and how you prepared the business for yourself, for your customers and for the rest of the Blue team as we enter 2025. And to our shareholders, thank you, as always, for your support. We look forward to continuing to share the story of Fastenal. Thanks, everybody.

    我感謝 Fastenal 團隊聆聽這次電話會議,感謝你們在 24 年所做的一切,感謝你們在進入 2025 年之際為自己、為客戶、為藍隊其他成員做好業務準備。我還要感謝我們的股東一如既往的支持。我們期待繼續分享Fastenal的故事。謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路,並享受美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。