First American Financial Corp (FAF) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the First American Financial Corporation First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). A copy of today's press release is available on First American's website at www.firstam.com/investor. Please note that the call is being recorded and will be available for replay from the company's investor website and for a short time by dialing (877) 660-6853 or (201) 612-7415 and enter the conference ID 137-53085.

您好，歡迎參加第一美國金融公司第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。今日新聞稿副本可在第一美國公司網站 www.firstam.com/investor 取得。請注意，本次電話會議正在錄音中，您可以在公司投資者網站上重播，或撥打 (877) 660-6853 或 (201) 612-7415 並輸入會議 ID 137-53085 短時間收聽。

I will now turn the call over to Craig Barberio, Vice President, Investor Relations, to make an introductory statement.

現在，我將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Craig Barberio 做介紹性發言。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to First American's Earnings Conference Call for the first quarter of 2025. Joining us today on the call will be our newly appointed Chief Executive Officer, Mark Seaton; and Matt Wajner, Chief Financial Officer. Some of the statements made today may contain forward-looking statements that do not relate strictly to historical or current fact. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made.

大家早安，歡迎參加第一季美國 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的還有我們新任命的執行長馬克·西頓 (Mark Seaton) 和財務長馬特·瓦伊納 (Matt Wajner)。今天所做的一些聲明可能包含與歷史或當前事實不嚴格相關的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述僅代表其作出之日的觀點，本公司不承諾更新前瞻性陳述以反映前瞻性陳述作出之日後發生的情況或事件。

Risks and uncertainties exist that may cause results to differ materially from those set forth in these forward-looking statements. For more information on these risks and uncertainties, please refer to yesterday's earnings release and the risk factors discussed in our Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings.

存在的風險和不確定性可能導致結果與這些前瞻性陳述中所述的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱昨天的收益報告以及我們的 10-K 表格和隨後的 SEC 文件中討論的風險因素。

Our presentation today contains certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide additional insight into the operational efficiency and performance of the company relative to earlier periods and relative to the company's competitors. For more details on these non-GAAP financial measures, including presentation with and reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financials, please refer to yesterday's earnings release, which is available on our website at www.firstam.com.

我們今天的演示包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標可以進一步了解公司相對於早期階段和競爭對手的營運效率和績效。有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多詳細信息，包括與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的呈現和調節，請參閱昨天的收益報告，該報告可在我們的網站 www.firstam.com 上找到。

I will now turn the call over to Mark Seaton.

現在我將電話轉給馬克·西頓。

Thank you, Craig. I'll begin by commenting on our recent leadership changes. First, we announced that our prior CEO, Kenneth DeGiorgio, has departed the company. Ken was a pillar of strength at First American for over 20 years. Many of us worked with Ken for many years and valued his commitment and elect and dedication to First American. We wish him and his family all the best. We also announced that I have replaced Ken as CEO. I've been with the company for 18 years, serving as our Chief Financial Officer for the last 12. I believe in our purpose, which is to deliver certainty and trust at power seamless real estate transactions.

謝謝你，克雷格。我首先要評論一下我們最近的領導層變動。首先，我們宣布，我們的前任執行長 Kenneth DeGiorgio 已離職。20 多年來，肯一直是第一美國公司的支柱。我們中的許多人都與肯共事多年，並重視他對第一美國銀行的承諾、選擇和奉獻。我們祝福他和他的家人一切順利。我們也宣布我已接替肯擔任執行長。我在公司工作了 18 年，其中過去 12 年一直擔任財務長。我相信我們的目標，那就是在無縫房地產交易中提供確定性和信任。

We have an amazing team and a great collection of businesses led by our core title and escrow business. We also have several adjacent businesses that are synergistic to our core title business, including data and analytics, home warranty, our bank, First American Trust and Service Macro subservicer. These adjacent businesses each have attractive growth characteristics and margin potential greater than our title business. We have a bright future given our people, unique assets and our commitment to be the best in the markets we operate in.

我們擁有一支出色的團隊和一系列以核心產權和託管業務為主導的業務。我們還有幾項與我們的核心產權業務具有協同作用的相鄰業務，包括數據和分析、房屋保固、我們的銀行、第一美國信託和 Service Macro 次級服務商。這些相鄰的業務都具有吸引人的成長特性和比我們的主營業務更大的利潤潛力。憑藉我們的人才、獨特的資產以及在所經營市場中力求做到最好的承諾，我們擁有光明的未來。

Next, we announced that Matt Wajner has been appointed our Chief Financial Officer. Matt has been with First American for 15 years, most recently serving as our Treasurer, and prior to that, our Chief Accounting Officer. Prior to First American, Matt held roles at JPMorgan Chase and PWC. He's a perfect fit for the role and has proven to be a great leader with sound judgment, a strong financial acumen. I look forward to our investor community, getting to know more of Matt in days and weeks to come.

接下來，我們宣布任命 Matt Wajner 為我們的財務長。馬特已在第一美國公司工作了 15 年，最近擔任我們的財務主管，之前擔任我們的首席會計官。在加入 First American 之前，Matt 曾在摩根大通和普華永道任職。他非常適合這個職位，並已證明自己是一位具有良好判斷力和敏銳財務頭腦的優秀領導者。我期待我們的投資者社區在未來幾天和幾週內更多地了解馬特。

Finally, we announced that our Chairman of the Board, Dennis Gilmore, will become our Executive Chairman. Dennis was our CEO for 12 years between 2010 and 2022, during which time we generated an 18% annual total shareholder return. I worked very closely with Dennis during that time and look forward to working with him in our new roles.

最後，我們宣布董事會主席丹尼斯·吉爾摩 (Dennis Gilmore) 將成為我們的執行主席。丹尼斯在 2010 年至 2022 年期間擔任我們的執行長 12 年，在此期間，我們實現了 18% 的年總股東回報率。在那段時間裡，我與丹尼斯密切合作，並期待在新的職位上與他合作。

Turning to our business. I believe First American is poised for a good run. As we all know, our core business is title and escrow, which is driven by mortgage originations. Residential originations continue to be at trough levels, both in terms of purchase and refinance, but we experienced revenue improvement in both markets this quarter. Real estate goes in cycles, and we're at the very beginning of the next cycle. There's a lot of macro noise with tariffs, the path of interest rates, inflation and uncertainty in the general economy but I believe residential originations have hit a bottom and now we can debate the path and pace of growth.

談談我們的業務。我相信第一美國銀行已準備好迎來良好的發展。眾所周知，我們的核心業務是產權和託管，由抵押貸款發放驅動。住宅發起量無論是在購買還是再融資方面都繼續處於低谷水平，但本季度我們在這兩個市場的收入都有所提高。房地產市場有周期性，我們正處於下一個週期的開始階段。關稅、利率走勢、通貨膨脹和整體經濟的不確定性等宏觀噪音很多，但我相信住宅發起已經觸底，現在我們可以討論成長的路徑和速度。

The commercial side of the business, which began declining in the second half of 2022 is seeing meaningful improvement. Commercial volumes started picking up in the second half of last year, and the momentum continues into 2025 as our revenue was up 29% this quarter. With the macro uncertainty -- while the macro uncertainty may cause transactions to slow, we have a great pipeline heading into the second quarter.

該業務的商業方面自 2022 年下半年開始下滑，目前正在顯著改善。商業交易量從去年下半年開始回升，這一勢頭將持續到 2025 年，本季我們的營收成長了 29%。由於宏觀不確定性——儘管宏觀不確定性可能會導致交易放緩，但我們在第二季度擁有良好的發展管道。

As I mentioned earlier, we're at the very beginning of another growth cycle and are poised to outperform the market given our extraordinary people, deep expertise, unique assets and commitment to do what we need to do to win. For many years now, our data and analytics business has gained market share while dramatically expanding its title plant, property record database and document image repositories, as the world becomes increasingly digitized and the power of artificial intelligence continues to grow exponentially, data is needed to drive automation and since we have more of that data than anyone, it puts us in the driver's seat.

正如我之前提到的，我們正處於新一輪成長週期的開端，憑藉我們傑出的人才、深厚的專業知識、獨特的資產以及為贏得勝利而付出的努力，我們已準備好超越市場。多年來，我們的數據和分析業務在大幅擴展其產權工廠、財產記錄資料庫和文件影像儲存庫的同時，也獲得了市場份額。隨著世界日益數位化，人工智慧的力量持續呈指數級增長，需要數據來推動自動化，而由於我們擁有的數據比任何人都多，因此我們處於主導地位。

We are leveraging our bank in new ways to add value to our customers, and it also serves as a countercyclical business that is helping to mitigate the challenging residential origination market that we face. We also have momentum with our technology initiatives. In many ways, we're carrying redundant tech costs since we support both the new modern systems and the legacy tech that our business depends on today. But when this transition is complete, we'll not only reduce costs by eliminating redundant platforms, but more importantly, enhance the productivity of our operations. This will enable us to be the lowest cost producer of our products and services all while maintaining the high-touch customer experience our clients expect.

我們正在以新的方式利用我們的銀行為我們的客戶增加價值，並且它還可以作為一項逆週期業務，幫助緩解我們面臨的住宅發起市場挑戰。我們的技術措施也取得了進展。在許多方面，我們都承擔著多餘的技術成本，因為我們既支援新的現代系統，也支援我們今天業務所依賴的傳統技術。但當這項轉變完成時，我們不僅可以透過消除冗餘平台來降低成本，更重要的是，提高我們的營運生產力。這將使我們成為產品和服務成本最低的生產商，同時保持客戶期望的高接觸客戶體驗。

Our business will always be a people business, but data and technology become more important every day and First American is committed to winning with these capabilities. In the short term, our order counts are somewhat of a mixed bag. For the first three weeks in April, our open purchase orders are down 4%. Our refinance orders rose 52% relative to last year, but it's off a low base, and the market continues to be challenged with mortgage rates hovering between 5.5%-- sorry, between 6.5% and 7%.

我們的業務永遠是人力業務，但數據和技術每天都變得越來越重要，而第一美國致力於利用這些能力來獲勝。短期內，我們的訂單數量有點參差不齊。在四月的前三週，我們的未結帳採購訂單下降了 4%。我們的再融資訂單較去年同期成長了 52%，但基數較低，而且市場繼續面臨挑戰，抵押貸款利率徘徊在 5.5% —— 抱歉，是 6.5% 至 7% 之間。

Commercial orders are up 5% so far this month in line with the 5% growth we experienced during the first quarter. Finally, I'm pleased to report that we've been named 1 of the 100 best companies to work for by -- great Place to Work and Fortune Magazine for the tenth consecutive year. This is an incredible accomplishment and a testament to our hardworking teams around the world who tirelessly service our customers and make First American a great place to be.

本月迄今為止，商業訂單成長了 5%，與第一季 5% 的增幅一致。最後，我很高興地告訴大家，我們連續十年被《Great Place to Work》和《財星》雜誌評選為 100 家最適合工作的公司之一。這是一項令人難以置信的成就，也是對我們遍布全球的辛勤工作的團隊的證明，他們孜孜不倦地為客戶服務，使第一美國成為一個偉大的公司。

Now I would like to turn the call back over to Matt for a more detailed review of our financial results.

現在我想把電話轉回給馬特，讓他更詳細地審查我們的財務結果。

Thank you, Mark. This quarter, we generated GAAP earnings of $0.71 per diluted share. Our adjusted earnings, which exclude the impact of net investment losses and purchase-related intangible amortization was $0.84 per diluted share. Revenue in our Title segment was $1.5 billion, up 12% compared with the same quarter of 2024. Commercial revenue was $184 million, a 29% improvement over last year. Our closed orders were down 2% from the prior year, while our average revenue per order surged 31% due to broad-based strength across both asset class and transaction size.

謝謝你，馬克。本季度，我們的 GAAP 每股收益為 0.71 美元。我們的調整後收益（不包括淨投資損失和購買相關無形資產攤銷的影響）為每股攤薄收益 0.84 美元。我們的產權部門營收為 15 億美元，與 2024 年同期相比成長 12%。商業收入為1.84億美元，比去年成長29%。我們的已結訂單比前一年下降了 2%，但由於資產類別和交易規模的廣泛優勢，我們每筆訂單的平均收入飆升了 31%。

Purchase revenue was up 1% during the quarter, driven by an 8% improvement in the average revenue per order, partly offset by a 6% decline in closed orders. Refinance revenue climbed 40% compared with the last year, primarily due to a 28% improvement in closed orders. Refinance accounted for just 5% of our direct revenue this quarter and highlights how challenged this market continues to be with mortgage rates hovering between 6.5% and 7%. In the Agency business, revenue was $655 million, up 16% from last year. Given the reporting lag in agent revenues of approximately one quarter, these results primarily reflect remittances related to fourth quarter economic activity.

本季度採購收入增長 1%，主要由於每筆訂單平均收入增長 8%，但已結訂單量下降 6% 部分抵消了這一增長。再融資收入較上年同期成長 40%，主要由於已完成訂單量增加 28%。再融資僅占我們本季直接收入的 5%，凸顯出在抵押貸款利率徘徊在 6.5% 至 7% 之間的情況下，該市場仍然面臨多大的挑戰。代理業務收入為 6.55 億美元，較去年增長 16%。鑑於代理商收入的報告落後約一個季度，這些結果主要反映與第四季經濟活動相關的匯款。

Information and other revenues were $236 million during the quarter, up 9% compared with last year primarily due to our Canadian operations seeing higher refinance activity. Investment income was $138 million in the first quarter, up $21 million compared with the same quarter of last year primarily due to higher interest income from the company's investment portfolio and an increase in average interest-bearing deposit balances, which more than offset the reduction in investment income related to the Fed cutting rates by 100 basis points in the second half of 2024.

本季資訊和其他收入為 2.36 億美元，比去年同期增長 9%，這主要歸因於我們的加拿大業務的再融資活動增加。第一季投資收益為1.38億美元，較去年同期增加2,100萬美元，主要由於公司投資組合的利息收入增加以及平均計息存款餘額增加，足以抵銷聯準會在2024年下半年降息100個基點導致的投資收益減少的影響。

The provision for policy losses and other claims was $33 million in the first quarter or 3.0% of title premiums and escrow fees, unchanged from the prior year. The first quarter rate reflects an ultimate loss rate of 3.75% for the current policy year and a net decrease of $8 million in the loss reserve estimate for prior policy years. Pretax margin in the title segment was 7.2%, or 7.9% on an adjusted basis.

第一季保單損失和其他索賠準備金為 3,300 萬美元，佔產權保險費和託管費的 3.0%，與去年持平。第一季的損失率反映了目前保單年度的最終損失率為 3.75%，以及前幾保單年度損失準備金估計淨減少 800 萬美元。產權部門的稅前利潤率為 7.2%，調整後為 7.9%。

Turning to the Home Warranty segment. Total revenue was $108 million this quarter, up 2% compared with last year. The loss ratio was 37%, improving from 42% in the first quarter of 2024 driven primarily by lower claim severity. Pretax margin in the Home Warranty segment was 22.9% and or 23.5% on an adjusted basis.

轉向家庭保固部分。本季總營收為 1.08 億美元，比去年同期成長 2%。損失率為 37%，較 2024 年第一季的 42% 有所改善，主要原因是索賠嚴重程度降低。房屋保固部門的稅前利潤率為 22.9% 或調整後 23.5%。

The effective tax rate in the quarter was 22.6%, which is slightly below the company's normalized tax rate of 24%. Our debt-to-capital ratio was 31.2% excluding secured financings payable, our debt-to-capital ratio was 23.5%. In the first quarter, we repurchased 448,000 shares for a total of $28 million at an average price of $62.99. So far in April, we repurchased 323,000 shares for $19 million at an average price of $59.95.

本季有效稅率為22.6%，略低於該公司24%的正常化稅率。我們的債務資本比率為 31.2%，不包括應付擔保融資，我們的債務資本比率為 23.5%。第一季度，我們回購了44.8萬股，總價值2,800萬美元，平均回購價格為62.99美元。 4月至今，我們回購了32.3萬股，總價值1900萬美元，平均回購價格為59.95美元。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator to take your questions.

現在我想將電話轉回給接線員來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Terry Ma, Barclays.

（操作員指示）巴克萊銀行的 Terry Ma。

Maybe just to start off with commercial. You saw some strong revenue growth in the quarter. It actually came in ahead of your January update. So can you maybe just talk more about what you're seeing in commercial, how the pipeline is shaping up, particularly just given all the macro uncertainty in recent weeks?

也許只是從商業開始。本季營收成長強勁。它實際上早於您一月份的更新。那麼，您能否再多談談您在商業領域看到的情況，以及通路的進展情況，特別是考慮到最近幾週的宏觀不確定性？

Yes, Terry, thanks for the question. We're -- I'd say we're cautiously optimistic about commercial. This is the third quarter in a row where we've seen some meaningful improvement on a year-over-year basis. And we've got broad-based strength in commercial. We track 11 asset classes in commercial, and 9 of them were up year-over-year. And coast-to-coast, we've got roughly 45 commercial offices, and they're all sitting with deals these days. We've got strength across asset classes. We've got strength across geography. And one thing we're seeing is that the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers is narrowing. So we've talked about the price discovery here in the last couple of quarters, and we're getting to the end of price discovery.

是的，特里，謝謝你的提問。我們——我想說我們對商業持謹慎樂觀的態度。這是我們連續第三個季度看到同比出現一些有意義的改善。我們在商業領域擁有廣泛的實力。我們追蹤了 11 個商業資產類別，其中 9 個類別較去年同期成長。從東海岸到西海岸，我們大約有 45 個商業辦事處，這些辦事處最近都在處理交易。我們在各個資產類別上都擁有實力。我們在各個地域都有實力。我們看到的一點是，買家和賣家之間的買賣價差正在縮小。在過去的幾個季度中，我們已經討論了價格發現，現在我們即將結束價格發現。

And even office, which has been a challenging commercial market for the last couple of years, I mean we had more office mega deals this quarter than any asset class. And so we are seeing a lot of strength. And we've seen volatility in the macro here these last couple of weeks, but our business hasn't slowed down as of yet. And so we feel really good about the pipeline heading into the second quarter. We feel like the momentum is going to continue. And based on what we're seeing now, we feel like the year is going to be good, but we'll see how it turns out. But overall, I think we're pleased with how commercial is performing right now.

即使是辦公室，過去幾年一直是一個充滿挑戰的商業市場，我的意思是，本季我們的辦公室大型交易比任何資產類別都多。因此我們看到了巨大的力量。過去幾週，我們看到宏觀經濟出現波動，但我們的業務尚未放緩。因此，我們對第二季的管道狀況感到非常滿意。我們感覺這種勢頭將會持續下去。根據我們目前看到的情況，我們覺得今年將會是好的一年，但我們會看看結果如何。但總的來說，我認為我們對目前的商業表現感到滿意。

Got it. That's very helpful color. And then on NII for the quarter, it was just a little bit under your guide. So any puts and takes there? And how should we kind of think about that as we kind of progress through the year?

知道了。這是非常有用的顏色。然後就本季的 NII 而言，它只是略低於您的指導。那麼，那裡有什麼東西可以拿走和拿走嗎？那麼，隨著時間的流逝，我們該如何思考這個問題呢？

Terry, this is Matt. I'll take that question. So net interest -- or interest income or investment income for the quarter, if you're saying it was down a little bit, I assume you're talking about sequentially from Q4 to Q1. And that was really impacted by two things. One is lower average interest-earning balances in the quarter. And Q1, I'll just remind you, is kind of our seasonally low asset investment deposit earning balances just because of the seasonal flow of business.

特里，這是馬特。我來回答這個問題。因此，如果您說本季的淨利息或利息收入或投資收入有所下降，我假設您說的是從第四季度到第一季的連續下降。這實際上受到兩件事的影響。一是本季平均計息餘額較低。我只想提醒您，第一季我們的資產投資存款收益餘額處於季節性低位，這僅僅是因為業務的季節性流動。

And the other impact was due to our mortgage warehouse funding business. Interest income was down in that business sequentially as well. Year-over-year, we had pretty good growth -- that was driven by the portfolio rebalancing that we completed last year, so increased interest income for our investment portfolio. And then we had growth in our average balances year-over-year. So when we turn towards the full year, we expect that we're going to have modest improvement over 24 for full year -- we also expect that Q1 will be the low point for the year. So we expect it to grow from here.

另一個影響來自於我們的抵押倉庫融資業務。該業務的利息收入也連續下降。與去年同期相比，我們實現了相當不錯的成長——這是由於我們去年完成的投資組合重新平衡所致，因此我們的投資組合的利息收入有所增加。然後我們的平均餘額同比增長。因此，當我們展望全年時，我們預計全年業績將比 24 季略有改善——我們也預計第一季將是全年的最低點。因此我們預計它會從現在開始成長。

And just as a reminder, that's including what we see today in the forward curve of approximately 3.5 rate cuts is considered in that. And I'll also remind you that we expect for each rate cut approximately $15 million of annual impact negatively to our investment income.

需要提醒的是，這包括我們今天在遠期曲線中看到的大約 3.5 次降息。我還要提醒大家，我們預計每次降息都會對我們的投資收入產生每年約 1500 萬美元的負面影響。

John Campbell, Stephens Inc.

約翰坎貝爾，史蒂芬斯公司

Matt, congrats on the new role. Looking forward to working with you. And Mark, congrats on the move into the CEO seat that's exciting. Mark, maybe starting with you. I mean, you've been in this business for a while. I'm curious about kind of how you're viewing the path forward, whether you're looking to stick with the strategy in place or if there are areas of the business you're looking to tweak or address our stock?

馬特，祝賀你擔任新職務。期待與您合作。馬克，祝賀你擔任執行長一職，這令人興奮。馬克，也許從你開始。我的意思是，你已經從事這個行業有一段時間了。我很好奇您如何看待未來的道路，您是否希望堅持現有的策略，或者您是否希望調整或解決某些業務領域？

Yes. Thanks for the question, John. I think at least in the short term, in the medium term, there's not going to be any dramatic immediate changes with our strategy. I mean I feel really good about the path we're on. And we work on it as a team. I mean, can I and the rest of the executive team, I mean, we're a team here. We work on it together and I've fully bought into the strategy that we're on and not just in the last couple of years, but for the last 10 years feel really good about the businesses we're in. I feel like the path of the core title business is a good path. It's a good industry to be in.

是的。謝謝你的提問，約翰。我認為至少在短期和中期內，我們的策略不會有任何重大的即時變化。我的意思是，我對我們所走的道路感到非常滿意。我們作為一個團隊致力於此。我的意思是，我和其他執行團隊成員可以嗎，我的意思是，我們在這裡是一個團隊。我們一起努力，我完全認同我們所採取的策略，不僅是在過去幾年，而且在過去的十年裡，我對我們所從事的業務感到非常滿意。我覺得核心標題業務的道路是一條好道路。這是一個值得從事的好行業。

And again, like I said, like we're at the first pitch of the first inning here of the next relistening cycle, I think that's a good place to be. I think when you look at our adjacent businesses, we're very optimistic about those two. I think they've got as much as we like the title business.

再說一次，就像我說的，就像我們正處於下一個重聽週期的第一局的第一球一樣，我認為這是一個很好的位置。我認為，當你看看我們的相鄰業務時，我們對這兩家公司非常樂觀。我認為他們和我們一樣喜歡產權業務。

I think some of these adjacent businesses we have higher growth prospects and have higher margin potential. And I think we've got a right to win those businesses. So I like where we're playing, and I like how we're going to win in those businesses in terms of we've got to have the best people in the industry, and I think we do.

我認為我們的一些相鄰業務具有更高的成長前景和更高的利潤潛力。我認為我們有權贏得這些業務。所以我喜歡我們現在所處的領域，我喜歡我們如何在這些業務中取勝，因為我們必須擁有業界中最優秀的人才，我認為我們做到了。

And we've got to win with data and technology. And I think with data, I think we're winning. I think with technology, we're doing an okay job. I think there's a lot of improvement we can make. But -- we've got a lot of momentum now in technology. I think the last couple of years, we've really built a good foundation, and now we just need to kind of prove it in our results. And I think that's going to happen in a couple of years.

我們必須利用數據和技術來取勝。我認為，憑藉數據，我們會取得勝利。我認為，憑藉技術，我們做得還不錯。我認為我們還可以做出很多改進。但是——我們現在在技術方面取得了很大的進展。我認為過去幾年我們確實打下了良好的基礎，現在我們只需要用我們的成果來證明這一點。我認為這將在幾年內實現。

So I think strategically, I really like the path that we're on, and we just got to execute -- and I'm sure there might be some things around the margins that will change over time. But you're not going to wake up and see some press release saying we get into some big business that has nothing to do with our core title and escrow business. And so as a general statement, I like the path, and there might be some changes around the margins, but we're on a good path right now.

因此我認為從戰略上來說，我真的很喜歡我們所走的道路，我們只需要執行——而且我相信隨著時間的推移，邊緣上的一些事情可能會發生變化。但你不會一覺醒來就看到一些新聞稿說我們進入了一些與我們的核心產權和託管業務無關的大生意。總而言之，我喜歡這條道路，雖然邊緣可能會有一些變化，但我們現在走在正確的道路上。

Okay. Makes a lot of sense. And then on the success ratio for this year. I know there's always a lot of moving parts, but assuming you're going to get enough growth for that to matter? And then on the investment side, it does seem like you've tapered back a good bit. But just as far as what you have earmarked for this year as far as investment activity, taking that into account, would you expect to abide by your typical success ratio this year?

好的。很有道理。然後是今年的成功率。我知道總是有很多活動部件，但假設你會獲得足夠的成長以使這一點變得重要嗎？然後在投資方面，看起來你確實已經縮減不少了。但是就您今年為投資活動預留的資金而言，考慮到這一點，您是否預計今年的成功率會維持在典型的水平？

Yes. We've talked about the 60% success ratio, and we were 51% in the first quarter, I think. And I think that's -- I would say somewhere between 50 to 60 for the full year and quarter are going to be volatile. But for the full year, I think we abide by that. And we are becoming more productive too. I mean, we haven't quite filed the Q yet, but our CapEx is down another 19% year-over-year. And so we're continuing to make progress on those fronts. But from a success ratio perspective, I think 50% to 60% is reasonable for this year.

是的。我們討論過 60% 的成功率，我認為第一季的成功率是 51%。我認為——全年和每季的波動幅度將在 50 到 60 之間。但就全年而言，我認為我們會遵守這一點。而且我們的生產力也變得更高了。我的意思是，我們還沒有完全提交 Q，但我們的資本支出比去年同期下降了 19%。因此，我們正在這些方面繼續取得進展。但從成功率的角度來看，我認為今年50％到60％是合理的。

Okay. Great. And if I could squeeze in one more. Just on the April title order data on purchase, down 4%. It looks like from a sequential standpoint, that's a pretty a decent step down relative to what you usually see from March to April, I know 30-year rates have been a bit volatile. I mean, I think in early maybe mid part of April, we hit a 2025 low and then here of late, we're back above the 7% level. So just curious about if you have this granularity just the week-to-week phasing, was there a pretty big step down later in the month or just kind of how that looked?

好的。偉大的。如果我能再擠進一個的話。光是4月的採購訂單數據來看，就下降了4%。從連續的角度來看，相對於通常從 3 月到 4 月的水平，這是一個相當不錯的下降，我知道 30 年期利率有點不穩定。我的意思是，我認為在 4 月初或中旬，我們達到了 2025 年的低點，然後最近我們又回到了 7% 的水平之上。所以我只是好奇，如果你有這種粒度，只是每週的階段，那麼本月晚些時候是否會出現相當大的下降，或者只是看起來怎麼樣？

Yes. So we've seen some volatility within the month of April the first week. We were up 5% second week, we're down 10%, third week, we're down 6%. That's purchased. So that includes resale and new home and with new homes, there's more volatility in that number. So as a general statement with our purchase orders down 4% in April, we have seen we saw a big decline in the second week. It's not as bad as the third week, but we have seen that. I would say relative to the beginning of the year, and even relative to the last earnings call we had in February, I think our outlook for the year is more positive now.

是的。因此，我們在四月份的第一周看到了一些波動。第二週上漲了 5%，下降了 10%，第三週下降了 6%。那是買來的。其中包括轉售和新房，而對於新房來說，這個數字的波動性更大。整體而言，4 月我們的採購訂單下降了 4%，而第二週的下降幅度更大。雖然沒有第三週那麼糟糕，但我們已經看到了這一點。我想說，相對於今年年初，甚至相對於我們二月的上次財報電話會議，我認為我們對今年的前景更加樂觀。

I think commercial is doing better than what we thought. I think the purchase side is less than what we thought heading into the year, we thought purchase revenue is going to be up kind of high single digits, and now we're looking at maybe low single digits. But on a net basis, I think we're more optimistic about the business today than we were a couple of months ago.

我認為商業表現比我們想像的還要好。我認為購買方面的數字低於我們年初的預期，我們原以為購買收入將成長高個位數，但現在我們看到的可能是低個位數。但從淨值來看，我認為我們對今天的業務比幾個月前更樂觀。

Yes, makes a lot of sense. It's like commercial is certainly got some strength. I appreciate the time, guys.

是的，很有道理。就好像商業肯定具有一定的力量。我很感謝你們的時間。

Thanks a lot, John.

非常感謝，約翰。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯喬治，KBW。

Congratulations to Mark and Matt, actually, a couple of questions just on expenses. Actually, first, on the margin impact from Endpoint and Sequoia, what was that this quarter?

祝賀馬克和馬特，實際上，僅就費用問題提出幾個問題。實際上，首先，關於 Endpoint 和 Sequoia 對本季利潤率的影響，情況如何？

So this quarter, it was 130 basis points. And maybe just a couple of things on that, Bose, is it hasn't come down in the last couple of quarters, Q1 the season a little business for earnings, right? So earnings are more depressed in the first quarter. I mean, that number is going to be higher. So we would expect it to narrow over the next couple of quarters. But the other thing, too, is we've really started breaking out the Endpoint and Sequoia earnings separately because we really wanted investors to think about our core business differently, right? We wanted to separate it out, so investors could really monitor how our core business is doing without the drag, let's say, of some of our innovation initiatives.

本季度，這一數字為 130 個基點。關於這一點，Bose，也許有幾件事需要注意，那就是在過去的幾個季度中，第一季的盈利並沒有下降，對嗎？因此第一季的獲利情況更為低迷。我的意思是，這個數字還會更高。因此我們預計未來幾季內這一差距將會縮小。但另一件事是，我們確實已經開始分別列出 Endpoint 和 Sequoia 的收益，因為我們真的希望投資者以不同的方式看待我們的核心業務，對嗎？我們希望將其分離出來，以便投資者能夠真正監控我們的核心業務的運作情況，而不會受到某些創新舉措的拖累。

But really for both Endpoint and Sequoia, for both of those, we're in the early stages of integrating them into our core business right now. And so I think at some point here, soon, if not today, it's not going to make as much sense to disclose that separately because now we're at the point where we think investors should judge us kind of on a consolidated basis because we need to get the value out of these investments. And so -- even though we still track it today, it's starting to get more integrated into our business, and it's just not going to be as meaningful to track, and we think that's fine for investors to judge us with those being included, if that makes sense for us.

但實際上，對於 Endpoint 和 Sequoia 而言，我們現在都處於將它們整合到我們核心業務的早期階段。因此我認為，在某個時候，很快，如果不是今天，單獨披露這一點就沒有多大意義了，因為現在我們認為投資者應該在合併的基礎上評判我們，因為我們需要從這些投資中獲得價值。因此 - 儘管我們今天仍在跟踪它，但它開始更多地融入我們的業務，並且跟踪它不再那麼有意義，我們認為，如果這對我們有意義的話，投資者可以根據這些因素來評判我們。

Okay. Great. Yes, that definitely makes sense. And then Mark, just going back to the comments you made right at the beginning just about the cost of the new and legacy systems. Is that sort of referring to these investments as well? Or could you just kind of elaborate on that and kind of how that plays out?

好的。偉大的。是的，這絕對有道理。然後馬克，回到你一開始關於新系統和舊系統成本的評論。這也指這些投資嗎？或者您能否詳細說明一下這一點以及其結果如何？

Yes. It's primarily related to these investments. And really, we've got these new platforms, whether it's title in the case of Sequoia, whether it's closing and escrow in the case of Endpoint. And we've got systems that we've been running on for 20 years that support 99% of our orders. I mean our business runs on these systems. And we've been developing these new modern systems on the side, and they're working. We're very pleased with the milestones and I can go into details on this and hope to at some point.

是的。這主要與這些投資有關。事實上，我們已經有了這些新平台，無論是 Sequoia 的所有權，還是 Endpoint 的結算和託管。我們的系統已經運行了 20 年，可以支援 99% 的訂單。我的意思是我們的業務依靠這些系統運作。我們一直在開發這些新的現代化系統，而且它們正在發揮作用。我們對這些里程碑感到非常滿意，我可以詳細介紹這一點，並希望在某個時候能夠做到這一點。

But we're very pleased that this is going to really propel us into the next generation and make us more competitive and we know they work. But they haven't proven they can work at scale. And that's what we need to do now. We need to scale our and it's going to -- it's not going to happen in the quarter, but we are in the process of doing that. And once we're fully rolled out, well, then we can start sort of dismantling the old systems and we'll be running on a new technology that's going to make us more productive. And so we're really kind of have these redundant costs here. But over time, we'll get savings from that. And I don't think we're going to be spending any more than we are now. I think that as I mentioned before, like our CapEx is down 19%, and we're doing a good job of just becoming a lot more efficient with our tech spend.

但我們非常高興，這將真正推動我們進入下一代，並使我們更具競爭力，我們知道它們是有效的。但他們尚未證明自己能夠大規模運作。這正是我們現在需要做的。我們需要擴大規模，這不會在本季度實現，但我們正在這樣做。一旦我們全面推出，那麼我們就可以開始拆除舊系統，並採用新技術來提高我們的生產力。所以我們這裡確實存在著這些冗餘成本。但隨著時間的推移，我們會從中節省開支。我認為我們的支出不會比現在更多。我認為，正如我之前提到的，我們的資本支出下降了 19%，而且我們在提高技術支出效率方面做得很好。

So I don't I think we're spending as much as we need to right now. I think our spend will go down, and we'll see productivity improvements gradually over the next systems more market breaking up a little bit there --

所以我認為我們現在的支出還沒有達到我們需要的水平。我認為我們的支出將會下降，而且我們將看到生產力在未來的系統中逐漸提高，市場也會逐漸分化--

(Operator Instructions) Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

Congrats in that. Mark, what do you think of -- if we do go into a recession, how do you see the takeout you be enthusiastic to speak, at least in terms of the impact potential lower interest rates on the housing market, how would commercial react in that -- just a few thoughts on what you might anticipate?

恭喜你。馬克，您怎麼看——如果我們真的陷入經濟衰退，您如何看待這種影響？至少就低利率對房地產市場的潛在影響而言，商業將如何反應？ ——您對此有何預期？

Thanks a lot for the question, Mark. And you were kind of breaking up a little bit here on this side, so maybe we have a faulty line here, but let me try to answer your question just about how our business would impact -- be impacted in a recession. I think there's good news and bad news with the recession. I think as a general statement, a recession isn't good for the purchase market. But again, the purchase market is pretty low. I mean last year, we the industry had as many existing home sales as we did in 1995. I mean it's really -- the purchase market is like 1 out of 10 right now.

非常感謝您的提問，馬克。您在這裡有點分心了，所以也許我們在這裡有點誤解了，但請讓我嘗試回答您的問題，關於我們的業務將如何影響——在經濟衰退中受到影響。我認為經濟衰退有好消息也有壞消息。我認為，整體而言，經濟衰退對購買市場不利。但同樣，購買市場相當低迷。我的意思是，去年我們行業的現房銷售量與 1995 年一樣多。我的意思是，現在的購買市場確實是十分之一。

And so yes, would it be impacted with the recession sure, but it's pretty low right now. I think with the recession, it depends on what happens with rates, obviously. And most recessions, what happens is rates lower and we get a refi wave. And so that typically serves as somewhat of an offset for us. And so I think the refi business would pop a little bit. And then on the commercial side, commercial would typically follow purchase, right? They're not exactly 100% correlated. But if we're in a recession, I mean that would cause some decline in -- or at least some softness in the commercial market.

是的，它肯定會受到經濟衰退的影響，但目前影響相當低。我認為，隨著經濟衰退，這顯然取決於利率的變化。大多數經濟衰退期間，利率都會下降，然後再融資浪潮。因此這通常對我們來說是一種補償。因此我認為再融資業務會略有成長。然後在商業方面，商業通常會跟著購買，對嗎？它們並非完全 100% 相關。但如果我們陷入經濟衰退，將會導致商業市場出現一定程度的衰退，或至少是疲軟。

So I wouldn't say we're hoping for a recession. I don't think that would be a good thing for the economy. It wouldn't be a good thing for First American. But we do have some offsets in that scenario.

所以我不會說我們希望出現經濟衰退。我認為這對經濟來說不是一件好事。這對第一美國銀行來說不是一件好事。但在這種情況下我們確實有一些抵消。

Any change in the philosophy that you might have around share buybacks? I think the company historically has been fairly deliberate in the buybacks. You've been active here lately, but how do you view buybacks as the use of capital?

您對股票回購的理念有什麼改變嗎？我認為該公司在回購方面歷來都是相當謹慎的。您最近在這裡很活躍，但您如何看待回購作為資本的使用？

(technical difficulty) but we have to think our stock is undervalued, which we do now. And (technical difficulty) we should be buying back our stock every single trading day of the year forever. I think there's windows where it's open, where it's a good thing for our shareholders. I think there's times when it's not a good thing for our long-term shareholders. And so the window is open and close, and we -- but I think the window is open now because I do think our stock is undervalued, and I feel great about the future of the company and the trajectory of our earnings. And so because of those reasons we repurchase shares but that's kind of how we think about it going forward.

（技術難度）但我們必須認為我們的股票被低估了，現在我們也確實這麼認為。並且（技術難題）我們應該永遠在一年中的每個交易日回購我們的股票。我認為這是一個開放的機會，對我們的股東來說這是一件好事。我認為有時候這對我們的長期股東來說不是一件好事。因此，窗口是打開和關閉的，我們 - 但我認為窗口現在是打開的，因為我確實認為我們的股票被低估了，我對公司的未來和盈利軌跡感到滿意。因此，由於這些原因，我們回購了股票，但這就是我們對未來的想法。

Very good. And then finally, the bank contribution to earnings than the contribution to -- or I guess just as a cyclical offset, perhaps, could you maybe just expand on any initiatives or what we might expect out of the bank in the next year or 2? And maybe you can even throw in if the economy does show some volatility, how might that influence the bank contribution?

非常好。最後，銀行對收益的貢獻比對收益的貢獻——或者我猜只是作為一種週期性的抵消，也許，你能否詳細說明一下任何舉措，或者我們對未來一兩年銀行的預期是什麼？或許您甚至可以考慮一下，如果經濟確實出現一些波動，這會如何影響銀行的貢獻？

The bank is a real strategic asset for us. It makes our escrow operations extremely efficient because title companies work with banks every single day. And since we have a bank -- company, we can integrate our systems and it's very it's easier to operate and open up and close bank accounts with us than any other company out there. So there's operational benefits.

這家銀行對我們來說是一項真正的策略資產。由於產權公司每天都與銀行合作，這使得我們的託管業務極為有效率。而且由於我們有一家銀行——公司，我們可以整合我們的系統，而且與我們一起操作和開設和關閉銀行帳戶比在任何其他公司都更容易。因此具有營運效益。

But obviously, a big benefit is financial. And we have really, over the last decade or so, we've really tried to maximize the number of deposits that we get internally. So historically, it's been an internal utility where we hold escrow deposits in connection with real estate transactions. We push a lot of those to our bank. We pushed a lot to third-party banks.

但顯然，最大的好處是經濟方面的。在過去十年左右的時間裡，我們確實一直在努力最大限度地增加我們內部獲得的存款數量。因此，從歷史上看，它一直是一種內部設施，我們在房地產交易中持有託管存款。我們將其中許多都轉入了銀行。我們向第三方銀行大力推廣。

The thing that's exciting about our bank to us is there's a lot of growth potential. So historically, we've really had one big customer that's First American Title but every single month, we're signing up new customers. And we have what is called an agent banking strategy where -- we're trying to -- and having success with banking title agents that are out there, having title agents put their Escrow deposits at First American Trust. And every single month, we're signing up new agents and getting more deposits.

令我們興奮的是，我們的銀行擁有巨大的成長潛力。從歷史上看，我們確實有一個大客戶，那就是 First American Title，但每個月我們都會簽新客戶。我們有所謂的代理銀行策略，我們正在嘗試與銀行產權代理商合作，並取得了成功，產權代理商將他們的託管存款存入第一美國信託公司。每個月，我們都會簽約新的代理商並獲得更多存款。

There's also synergies with Service Macro subservicer who carries certain types of deposits that we have at our bank. And so we're opening it up to third parties more, and we're having a lot of success with that. We stumbled early because we needed to invest in new technologies. We need to create a customer service team. But we finally figured out the system and the flywheel is really going right now with agent banking. So we're -- we're really excited about the future.

我們也與 Service Macro 子服務商有協同效應，該子服務商負責我們銀行的某些類型的存款。因此，我們向第三方開放了更多業務，並且取得了巨大成功。我們早期遭遇挫折是因為我們需要投資新科技。我們需要創建一個客戶服務團隊。但我們最終弄清楚了系統，並且飛輪現在確實在代理銀行業務中運作。所以我們對未來感到非常興奮。

I would say, as a general statement, too, the higher the -- when I said offsets earnings offset in my script, when we have a higher Fed funds rate and higher rates, it's generally not good for the residential business, the resident, as I said before, the residential business is like a 1 out of 10. But the bank is going to have record earnings this year. I mean we won't have higher earnings than we will in 2025 for the bank. So higher interest rates are a good thing for the bank. Now if we get in a lower interest rate environment, obviously, that's going to help our title business, and it's not going to be as good for the bank.

我想說，一般來說，當我在我的腳本中說抵銷收益抵銷時，當我們有更高的聯邦基金利率和更高的利率時，這通常對住宅業務、居民不利，正如我之前所說，住宅業務就像 10 分之一。但該銀行今年的獲利將創歷史新高。我的意思是，我們的銀行獲利不會比 2025 年更高。因此，更高的利率對銀行來說是一件好事。現在，如果我們處於較低的利率環境中，這顯然會對我們的產權業務有所幫助，但對銀行來說卻不那麼有利。

But we have had -- we have taken more duration in the bank because we just feel like it's -- we kind of want to lock in these good spreads that we have. So the bank is a real strategic asset, and we feel like we can grow it over time. And it's unique because none of our competitors have one, and it's a good thing to have.

但是我們已經——我們在銀行存了更長的時間，因為我們覺得——我們有點想鎖定我們擁有的這些良好利差。因此，該銀行是一項真正的戰略資產，我們覺得我們可以隨著時間的推移發展它。它是獨一無二的，因為我們的競爭對手都沒有，擁有它是一件好事。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯。

Mark, could you give us an update on where you stand with the rollout of Endpoint and Sequoia?

馬克，您能否向我們介紹 Endpoint 和 Sequoia 的推出情況？

Sure. So with Sequoia, we've had -- we've had a pilot in two markets in Phoenix and Riverside. When we started the pilot, the goal was to have 50% of purchase transactions automated, 50% and we've got clear line of sight into 60%. So our hit rates are higher than what we initially thought, and we're going to be able to do it for a lower cost than we thought.

當然。因此，我們與紅杉資本合作，在鳳凰城和河濱市的兩個市場進行了試點。當我們開始試點時，我們的目標是實現 50% 的購買交易自動化，目前我們已經明確目標為 60%。因此，我們的命中率高於我們最初的預期，而且我們將能夠以比我們想像的更低的成本做到這一點。

So the -- we've exceeded our base case with respect to Sequoia. The next step with Sequoia is we're in the early stages of rolling it out through the entire state of California. So that's sort of early stages right now. And we're coming up right now with the national rollout plan. I don't have it yet, but the team is working on it. For Sequoia -- or I'm sorry, for Endpoint, we've made so much progress with the system itself. We are running it in live, in Seattle. It's working really, really well.

因此，我們已經超越了紅杉資本的基本預期。Sequoia 的下一步計劃是將其推廣至整個加州。目前這還處於早期階段。我們現在正在製定全國推廣計劃。我還沒有，但團隊正在努力。對於 Sequoia —— 或者對不起，對於 Endpoint 來說，我們在系統本身方面取得了很大進展。我們正在西雅圖進行現場直播。它確實運行得非常好。

I think it's exceeded our expectations. Now we're kind of in the early stages, and it's going to be a lot harder to roll out the technologies within Endpoint than it is on Sequoia for a lot of different reasons. But we're in the early stages of coming up with kind of a national rollout plan to try to figure out how we can get this technology and other technologies that we have in the hands of our reverses.

我認為它超出了我們的預期。現在我們處於早期階段，由於許多不同的原因，在 Endpoint 中推廣這些技術比在 Sequoia 上推廣困難得多。但我們正處於製定國家推廣計劃的早期階段，試圖弄清楚如何將這項技術以及我們掌握的其他技術應用於我們的逆向工程。

So really with the goal of eliminating more of the administrative tasks and giving our escrow officers more time with their customers more time closing transactions where they can get paid more -- and when -- and they can just deal with these edge cases where things go wrong in us for a transaction as opposed to spending so much time on administrative tasks. So that's the vision. And I would say we're going to have a national rollout plan by the end of the year with Endpoint.

因此，我們真正的目標是減少更多的行政管理任務，讓我們的託管人員有更多的時間與客戶溝通，完成交易，從而獲得更多的報酬，他們可以只處理交易中出現問題的邊緣情況，而不是花費太多時間在行政管理任務上。這就是我們的願景。我想說的是，我們將在今年年底前與 Endpoint 一起制定全國推廣計劃。

We're coming up with it right now to figure out which offices we want to do and what type of people we want to roll it out to, but we're going to have a rollout plan by the end of this year ago. And we want to have users on it. We want to test users in our core business by the end of the year, too.

我們現在正在想辦法弄清楚我們想要在哪些辦公室開展業務，以及我們想要將其推廣到哪些類型的人，但我們將在今年年底之前製定出推廣計劃。我們希望擁有用戶。我們也希望在今年年底之前對我們的核心業務的用戶進行測試。

Great. That's helpful. And then any updates on what the status is of the proposed rate cut in Texas and some of the efforts to push back on the initial proposal?

偉大的。這很有幫助。那麼，德州提議的降息情況以及推遲初步提議的一些努力有什麼最新消息嗎？

It's going to go into effect July 1. I know there's a lot of groups fighting it. We're operating under an assumption that's going to happen. And so we're planning for it there's things we can do on the margins to mitigate the risk, but we're not going to be able to mitigate the entire blunt of it.

該法案將於 7 月 1 日生效。我知道有很多團體在反對它。我們是在假設這種情況會發生的情況下開展工作的。因此，我們正在為此制定計劃，我們可以做一些邊緣工作來減輕風險，但我們無法減輕其全部影響。

But one of the things that's helpful for us is we're a big national business with scale. I think it really hurts a lot of the title agents in Texas that don't have the scale where 100% of the business comes from Texas. It's a lot worse for the smaller title companies. And I don't think it's good for the industry as a whole. But we're planning on it happening as of July 1.

但對我們有幫助的一件事是，我們是一家具有規模的全國性大企業。我認為這確實對德克薩斯州的許多產權代理商造成了傷害，因為他們的業務規模並不大，100% 的業務都來自德克薩斯州。對於規模較小的產權公司來說，情況更糟。我認為這對整個行業來說都不是好事。但我們計劃從 7 月 1 日起實施。

Okay. Got it. And then finally, you made the point a couple of times that the macro uncertainty could cause a slowdown in commercial. Are you just saying that out of either abundance of cash and our past experience? Or are you actually seeing anything tangible whether it's in conversations with customers that point you to that?

好的。知道了。最後，您多次指出宏觀不確定性可能會導致商業放緩。您這麼說只是因為我們資金充裕或我們過去的經驗嗎？或者您真的看到了任何有形的東西，無論是在與客戶的對話中？

When we look back the last couple of recessions, we've had the purchase in the commercial market, both declined together. So there is evidence of that. Now what I'd say is we haven't seen it yet. We haven't seen it yet. Now we've seen one deal that I'm aware of in the US that has been postponed. It wasn't really recessionary. I think it was just because of tariff uncertainty.

當我們回顧最近幾次的經濟衰退時，我們發現商業市場的購買量同時下降。所以有證據證明這一點。現在我想說的是，我們還沒有看到它。我們還沒看到它。現在，據我所知，美國有一項交易被推遲了。這其實並不是經濟衰退。我認為這只是因為關稅的不確定性。

We've seen a couple of international deals postponed commercial deals. But when I say postponed, these are refinanced deals that are going to happen eventually, and we just thought they were going to close in the first quarter, and now they're pushed off. So -- we haven't seen a decline at all in the -- we always see a strength right now in commercial. But if we see a recession, if we go into a recession, I got to imagine in our commercial business is going to get softer because that's how it's always been the last few recessions.

我們看到一些國際交易推遲了商業交易。但當我說延期時，這些是最終會發生的再融資交易，我們只是認為它們會在第一季完成，但現在它們被推遲了。所以——我們根本沒有看到商業方面的衰退——我們現在總是看到商業方面的強勁表現。但如果我們看到經濟衰退，如果我們陷入衰退，我可以想像我們的商業業務將會變得更加疲軟，因為過去幾次經濟衰退都是如此。

Geoffrey Dunn, Dowling & Partners.

傑弗瑞鄧恩，道林及合夥人。

I appreciate your thoughts on the philosophy of buyback. But I was wondering if you could walk us through how you're thinking about the resources for buyback. If the window remains open, can you walk through some math with respect to expected cash flows opco dividend capacity, common dividend and debt service obligations. What's the actual pool that could be an opportunity for buyback as we think about the year?

我很欣賞您對回購理念的看法。但我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您對回購資源的看法。如果視窗保持開啟狀態，您能否針對預期現金流、opco 股息能力、普通股股息和債務償還義務進行一些數學計算。當我們考慮年？

Jeff, this is Matt. I'll start on that one. So at the end of Q1, when we look at what's the capital that we have available for those type of activities. At the holding company, we had about $100 million of cash. And we feel good about that level of cash is kind of what we need -- and then when we turn to FATICO, the way we look at FATICO and measure what we believe is excess capital in FATICO is we try to approximate what we believe we need for rating agencies requirements and then also to run our business.

傑夫，這是馬特。我先從那一個開始。因此，在第一季末，我們會考慮有多少資金可用於此類活動。在控股公司，我們擁有約 1 億美元現金。我們對這種現金水平感到滿意，這正是我們所需要的——然後，當我們轉向 FATICO 時，我們看待 FATICO 的方式以及衡量我們認為的 FATICO 中的過剩​​資本的方式是，我們試圖近似地估計我們認為評級機構要求所需的金額，然後也估計運營我們的業務所需的金額。

So we think we have about $160 million roughly in excess capital at Patio as well. So those right there, that's resources that we could use. We're also generating meaningful earnings every month, right? So that's a potential. As you know, we have our corporate revolver with $900 million. So if we were to need additional liquidity or capital, we could access our revolver. And then when we think about dividend capacity, -- right now, FATICO's dividend capacity is $535 million. So there's no regulatory constraints for what we would need to be able to pull out of patio if you wanted to access some of that excess capital.

因此我們認為 Patio 也擁有約 1.6 億美元的過剩資本。所以那些就是我們可以利用的資源。我們每個月也能產生可觀的收入，對嗎？所以這是一種潛力。如您所知，我們公司有 9 億美元的循環信貸。因此，如果我們需要額外的流動性或資本，我們就可以使用我們的循環信貸。然後，當我們考慮股息能力時——目​​前，FATICO 的股息能力為 5.35 億美元。因此，如果您想獲取部分過剩資本，我們需要從中獲得什麼，沒有任何監管限制。

And when we look at our debt to cap, we're at a comfortable 23.5% right now. It's a little bit over what our target would be through the cycle, which is 20%, but we're very comfortable at 23.5% given where we are in the cycle. And where we would think we want to be is generally not over 25% for a sustained period of time. But for rating agency purposes as long as we're not over 30% for a sustained period of time, the rating agencies would be fine. Our covenants are at 35%. So we do have quite a bit of kind of capacity to access debt if we needed to on our facility. So those are kind of -- that's kind of the pull that we think of capital available.

當我們查看我們的債務上限時，我們目前處於舒適的 23.5%。這比我們整個週期的目標（20%）略高一點，但考慮到我們目前所處的週期階段，我們對 23.5% 的預期非常滿意。我們認為，我們想要達到的水平一般不會在一段持續時間內超過 25%。但對於評級機構而言，只要我們的利率在一段持續時間內不超過 30%，評級機構就不會有問題。我們的契約是 35%。因此，如果我們需要的話，我們確實有相當大的能力來利用我們的設施來獲得債務。所以這些就是我們認為的可用資本的吸引力。

There are no additional questions at this time, and that will conclude this morning's call. I would like to remind listeners that today's call will be available for replay on the company's website or by calling (877) 660-6853 or (201) 612-7415 and enter the conference ID 13753085. The company would like to thank you for your participation. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題，今天上午的電話會議就到此結束。我想提醒聽眾，今天的電話會議可以在公司網站上重播，或撥打（877）660-6853 或（201）612-7415 並輸入會議 ID 13753085 即可重播。本公司感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。