Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Extra Space Storage Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Extra Space Storage 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Jeff Norman, Senior Vice President, Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給資本市場高級副總裁傑夫諾曼 (Jeff Norman)。請繼續。

Thank you, Liz. Welcome to Extra Space Storage's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. In addition to our press release, we have furnished unaudited supplemental financial information on our website. Please remember that management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Actual results could differ materially from those stated or implied by our forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with the company's business. These forward-looking statements are qualified by the cautionary statements contained in the company's latest filings with the SEC, which we encourage our listeners to review.

謝謝你，莉茲。歡迎參加 Extra Space Storage 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。除了我們的新聞稿外，我們還在我們的網站上提供了未經審計的補充財務資訊。請記住，管理層準備好的評論和對您問題的回答可能包含《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。由於與公司業務相關的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些前瞻性陳述受到該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件中包含的警示性陳述的限制，我們鼓勵聽眾仔細閱讀這些陳述。

Forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of today, February 28, 2024. The company assumes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements because of changing market conditions or other circumstances after the date of this conference call.

前瞻性陳述代表管理階層截至今天（2024 年 2 月 28 日）的估計。本公司不承擔因本次電話會議日期後市場狀況或其他情況變化而修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Joe Margolis, Chief Executive Officer.

我現在想將電話轉給執行長喬·馬戈利斯 (Joe Margolis)。

Thanks, Jeff. And thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. We had a solid fourth quarter, where we focused on optimizing the performance of the recently added Life Storage assets, while maximizing the performance of the legacy Extra Space locations. We were also very productive on the external growth front adding another 74 third-party managed stores, 8 stores through acquisition and $129 million in bridge loans. Operationally, the Extra Space same-store pool maintained high occupancy and solid in-place rents, driving same-store revenue growth of 0.8% for the quarter. Core FFO in the quarter was $2.02 a share and full year core FFO was $8.10 per share.

謝謝，傑夫。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們第四季業績表現強勁，我們專注於優化最近新增的 Life Storage 資產的效能，同時最大限度地提高傳統 Extra Space 位置的效能。我們在外部成長方面也非常富有成效，新增了 74 家第三方管理商店、8 家透過收購的商店以及 1.29 億美元的過橋貸款。在營運方面，Extra Space 同店池維持了高入住率和穩定的就地租金，推動本季同店營收成長 0.8%。本季核心 FFO 為每股 2.02 美元，全年核心 FFO 為每股 8.10 美元。

On our last call, we outlined that in order to reach the high end of our guidance range, we would need achieved rates to new customers to improve on a year-over-year basis. While demand was steady and allowed us to maintain strong occupancy, it was not strong enough to eliminate negative new customer rates, which remained at approximately negative 10% during the quarter. As a result, we faced the headwind of higher negative churn, and our full year performance was near the midpoint of our same-store and FFO ranges.

在上次電話會議中，我們概述了為了達到指導範圍的高端，我們需要為新客戶實現的費率逐年提高。雖然需求穩定，使我們能夠保持強勁的入住率，但不足以消除負新客戶率，該季度新客戶率仍保持在約 10% 的負值。結果，我們面臨負面客戶流失率上升的逆風，我們的全年業績接近同店和 FFO 範圍的中點。

Turning to Life Storage. One of the factors in our merger decision was our belief that we could enhance Life Storage property performance through our more sophisticated platform. 7 months removed from closing, we are happy to report that our assumptions have proved true. Customer acceptance of rent increases has been in line with our expectations, and we are seeing the net rent per square foot for legacy Life Storage customers move closer to that of nearby Extra Space locations.

轉向生命存儲。我們做出合併決定的因素之一是我們相信我們可以透過我們更先進的平台來提高 Life Storage 財產性能。距離交割還有 7 個月，我們很高興地報告，我們的假設已被證明是正確的。客戶對租金上漲的接受程度符合我們的預期，我們看到傳統 Life Storage 客戶的每平方英尺淨租金越來越接近附近 Extra Space 地點的水平。

Occupancy is also responding positively, and we saw the occupancy gap between the LSI and Extra Space Storage same-store pools tightened through the quarter, improving from a gap of 350 basis points at the beginning of the fourth quarter to a gap of 250 basis points at year-end. Today, that gap has tightened further and is approximately 200 basis points. The occupancy improvement together with the benefit of existing customer rent increases resulted in legacy LSI same-store revenue growth of 1.8%, an acceleration of 80 basis points over the third quarter growth rate.

入住率也做出了積極的反應，我們看到LSI 和Extra Space Storage 同店池之間的入住率差距在整個季度都在收緊，從第四季度初的350 個基點的差距改善到250 個基點的差距年底時。如今，這一差距進一步收窄，約 200 個基點。入住率的改善加上現有客戶租金上漲的好處，導致傳統 LSI 同店收入成長 1.8%，比第三季成長率提高了 80 個基點。

However, similar to the Extra Space properties, we continue to see new customer price sensitivity at the Life Storage locations, resulting in lower-than-anticipated new customer rates. So while we are achieving the anticipated incremental outperformance we expected for the Life Storage assets, reaching full property level synergies is taking longer than anticipated due to current market conditions, which we know will eventually normalize.

然而，與 Extra Space 物業類似，我們繼續看到 Life Storage 地點的新客戶對價格敏感，導致新客戶率低於預期。因此，雖然我們正在實現 Life Storage 資產預期的增量表現，但由於當前的市場狀況，達到全面的財產層面協同效應需要比預期更長的時間，我們知道市場最終將正常化。

The current level of demand also influences our outlook for 2024. We are encouraged by our rental velocity, occupancy levels, existing customer health, length of stay and the potential benefits of moderating new supply. However, these factors have not yet led to material improvement in new customer rates. We are confident we can hold strong occupancy and generally maintain current revenue levels, but we believe it will be difficult to drive a reacceleration in revenue growth until we regain pricing power with new customers.

目前的需求水準也影響我們對 2024 年的展望。我們的租金速度、入住率、現有客戶健康狀況、入住時間以及減少新供應的潛在好處令我們感到鼓舞。然而，這些因素尚未導致新客戶率的實質改善。我們有信心能夠保持強勁的入住率並整體維持當前的收入水平，但我們相信，在我們重新獲得新客戶的定價權之前，很難推動收入成長的重新加速。

We are seeing some positive signs that we are getting closer. And given our strong occupancy levels, when pricing power returns, we are very well positioned to push rates quickly. We just have not seen enough progress to date to feel confident this inflection will be in time for the 2024 leasing season or to include this scenario in our guidance.

我們看到一些積極的跡象，表明我們正在接近這一目標。鑑於我們強勁的入住率，當定價能力恢復時，我們完全有能力快速提高房價。到目前為止，我們只是還沒有看到足夠的進展，因此無法確信這種拐點將在 2024 年租賃季節到來，或將這種情況納入我們的指導中。

So while the industry as a whole will likely face headwinds from lower new customer rates in the near term, the long-term outlook for our sector and for Extra Space specifically remain bright. Storage has consistently proven to be a remarkably durable asset class, and Extra Space Storage has the largest and most diverse portfolio in the industry. New supply continues to moderate and the headwinds to future new development are substantial and increasing.

因此，儘管整個產業短期內可能會面臨新客戶率下降所帶來的阻力，但我們產業和 Extra Space 的長期前景仍然光明。儲存已被證明是一種非常耐用的資產類別，而 Extra Space Storage 擁有業內最大、最多樣化的產品組合。新供應持續放緩，未來新開發的阻力巨大且不斷增加。

We have very strong third-party management and bridge loan pipelines and a robust joint venture program, and I am confident in our ability to further scale our capital-light growth activities. We expect to outsize relative growth from our LSI assets in 2024 with additional synergies to be unlocked as the rental environment improves. And as I mentioned, our occupancy today is over 93% at what is normally our low point for the year. Once demand improves, we are very well positioned to capture it.

我們擁有非常強大的第三方管理和過橋貸款管道以及強大的合資計劃，我對我們進一步擴大輕資本增長活動的能力充滿信心。我們預計到 2024 年，我們的 LSI 資產將實現相對成長，隨著租賃環境的改善，將釋放更多綜效。正如我所提到的，我們今天的入住率超過 93%，通常是今年的最低點。一旦需求改善，我們就能夠很好地抓住它。

I will now turn the time over to Scott.

現在我將把時間交給史考特。

Thanks, Joe, and hello, everyone. Our results were generally in line with our expectations with a few exceptions. As Joe already covered, lower new customer rates caused revenue growth to come in modestly below our internal estimate. The revenue mix was partially offset by lower-than-expected property taxes. We also had a beat from G&A savings, partially offset by lower than modeled tenant insurance. All of our other income and expense line items were generally in line with our forecast.

謝謝喬，大家好。除了少數例外，我們的結果總體上符合我們的預期。正如喬已經介紹的那樣，較低的新客戶率導致收入成長略低於我們的內部預期。低於預期的財產稅部分抵消了收入組合。我們也獲得了管理費用節省，但部分被低於模型的租戶保險所抵消。我們所有其他收入和支出項目大致符合我們的預測。

As of January 1, a we have completed the migration of the Life Storage customers to our tenant insurance program, and we believe we will achieve $16 million in synergies from tenant insurance, exceeding our original estimate by $4 million in 2024. Our G&A run rate from Q4 is lower than our expected 2024 full year run rate as we continued hiring during the fourth quarter, and we have some G&A seasonality. We now expect to realize 2024 G&A synergies of $39 million, an increase of $16 million over our original forecast of $23 million.

截至1 月1 日，我們已經完成了Life Storage 客戶向租戶保險計劃的遷移，我們相信租戶保險將帶來1600 萬美元的協同效應，到2024 年比我們最初的估計多出400 萬美元。我們的G&A 運行率由於我們在第四季度繼續招聘，而且我們有一些一般管理費用季節性因素，因此第四季度的增長率低於我們預期的 2024 年全年運行率。我們現在預計 2024 年將實現 3,900 萬美元的一般管理費用綜效，比我們最初預測的 2,300 萬美元增加了 1,600 萬美元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We completed a $600 million bond offering in the fourth quarter and another $600 million bond offering in the first quarter of 2024. We have used the proceeds from these offerings to pay off the $1 billion variable rate bridge loan we obtained in conjunction with the closing of Life Storage. Our only remaining 2024 loan maturities can be extended at our option, and we have plenty of dry powder if opportunities arise in the market.

轉向資產負債表。我們在第四季完成了6 億美元的債券發行，並在2024 年第一季完成了另外6 億美元的債券發行。我們已使用這些發行的收益來償還我們在完成收購時獲得的10 億美元浮動利率過橋貸款。生命儲存。我們僅剩的 2024 年貸款期限可以選擇延期，如果市場出現機會，我們有足夠的乾粉。

In last night's earnings release, we provided our 2024 outlook for both the Extra Space and legacy Life Storage same-store pools. We have provided wider same-store revenue and NOI ranges to capture the different scenarios we believe are possible given the unusual 2023 comparables and uncertainty around new customer pricing.

在昨晚的財報中，我們提供了 Extra Space 和傳統 Life Storage 同店池的 2024 年展望。鑑於 2023 年不尋常的可比性和新客戶定價的不確定性，我們提供了更廣泛的同店收入和 NOI 範圍，以捕捉我們認為可能出現的不同情況。

With interest rates potentially remaining higher for longer, our guidance does not assume a material improvement in the housing market during the summer leasing season. For the EXR same-store pool, our same-store revenue guidance is negative 2% to positive 0.5%. Our expense growth range is 4% to 5.5%, driven by marketing, insurance and property taxes resulting in an NOI range of negative 4.25% to negative 0.5%.

由於利率可能在較長時間內保持較高水平，我們的指導意見並不假設夏季租賃季節期間房地產市場出現實質改善。對於 EXR 同店池，我們的同店收入指引為負 2% 至正 0.5%。在行銷、保險和財產稅的推動下，我們的費用成長範圍為 4% 至 5.5%，導致 NOI 範圍為負 4.25% 至負 0.5%。

For the legacy LSI same-store pool, we expect stronger property-level growth with same-store revenue ranging from 2% to 4.5%. We expect outsized expense growth at the LSI stores in 2024, especially in the first half of the year. This will be driven by higher payroll as we have brought the LSI stores back to full staffing levels. We expect additional expense pressure on repairs and maintenance, property taxes and property insurance, resulting in a range of 6.25% to 7.75% yielding a Life Storage same-store NOI range of negative 0.25% to positive 4%. Our Core FFO range for 2024 is $7.85 and to $8.15 per share and assumes the full year impact of the shares and debt added through the Life Storage merger.

對於傳統的 LSI 同店池，我們預計飯店層級的成長將更為強勁，同店營收將成長 2% 至 4.5%。我們預計 2024 年 LSI 門市的費用將大幅成長，尤其是上半年。這將由更高的工資推動，因為我們已將 LSI 商店恢復到滿員水平。我們預計維修和保養、財產稅和財產保險方面將面臨額外的費用壓力，導致 Life Storage 同店 NOI 範圍為負 0.25% 到正 4%，範圍為 6.25% 至 7.75%。我們 2024 年的核心 FFO 範圍為每股 7.85 美元至 8.15 美元，並假設透過 Life Storage 合併增加的股票和債務對全年產生影響。

And with that, Liz, let's open it up for questions.

那麼，麗茲，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Jeff Spector with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Jeff Spector 線路。

This is [Lizzy], on for Jeff. Just I guess going back to Joe's opening comments on not really having the confidence right now to include a scenario on pushing new rates more quickly and not assuming a rebound in housing. So I guess if you could provide color on what your assumptions are for new move-in rates and how that should trend that's leading to the lower end versus the higher end of the same-store rev guide, that would be helpful.

我是[Lizzy]，替傑夫代言。我想回到喬的開場評論，他現在確實沒有信心包括更快地推動新利率並且不假設房地產反彈的情況。因此，我想如果您可以提供關於新入住率的假設以及該趨勢如何導致同店轉速指南的較低端與較高端的顏色，那將會有所幫助。

So our guidance is really revenue based and new move-in rates to customers are one component. We're a little agnostic between occupancy and new move-in rate and ECRI program and promotions and all the various components that go into the revenue assumptions that produce our guidance. As I said and you indicated we don't see enough now to guide to a strong rebound in the housing market in time for the leasing season. We still see price sensitivity from new customers, although rental demand is good, and we've had a really good start to this year. We don't think interest rates are going to go down in time to have a material impact on the leasing season. So while we don't have a crystal ball, we thought a reasonably prudent guidance would be not to assume that rebound.

因此，我們的指導實際上是基於收入的，而新的客戶入住率是其中一個組成部分。我們對入住率、新入住率、ECRI 計劃和促銷活動以及產生我們指導的收入假設的所有各個組成部分之間有點不可知。正如我所說和您所指出的，我們現在沒有看到足夠的資訊來指導房地產市場在租賃季節及時強勁反彈。儘管租賃需求良好，但我們仍然看到新客戶對價格敏感，而且我們今年有了一個非常好的開始。我們認為利率不會及時下降而對租賃季節產生重大影響。因此，雖然我們沒有水晶球，但我們認為合理謹慎的指導是不要假設反彈。

Yes. [Lizzy], maybe to add a little bit more color to Joe's comments, our guidance, the base case assumes that we do have sequential rate growth on a month-over-month basis from now into our leasing season, but just not enough to necessarily close that negative gap that we're experiencing today.

是的。 [Lizzy]，也許是為了給喬的評論、我們的指導、基本情況增添一點色彩，假設我們從現在到租賃季節確實有逐月連續的增長率，但還不足以必然會縮小我們今天所經歷的負面差距。

Okay. That's helpful. And as my follow-up question, we just noticed that the assumption on the SOFR curve, driving interest expense within guidance. it seems a bit aggressive just based on where SOFR sits today. So could you just walk through kind of your outlook on rates, and what's embedded in guidance in terms of debt and refi activity?

好的。這很有幫助。作為我的後續問題，我們剛剛注意到 SOFR 曲線的假設將利息支出推向指導範圍內。僅從 SOFR 今天的情況來看，這似乎有點激進。那麼您能否簡單介紹一下您對利率的展望，以及債務和再融資活動的指導中包含哪些內容？

Yes. So as we were preparing our guidance and preparing our annual budget, the SOFR curve was moving around pretty -- quite a bit. We saw moving almost every day. So we picked a point in time that had an average of 4.75%. That was approved probably 1.5 weeks ago is when we finalized it. And we figured it will move throughout the year, but that's the assumption we made in our guidance.

是的。因此，當我們準備指導方針和年度預算時，SOFR 曲線發生了相當大的移動。我們幾乎每天都看到搬家。所以我們選擇了一個平均值為 4.75% 的時間點。我們最終確定的時間大概是 1.5 週前獲得批准的。我們認為它會在全年發生變化，但這是我們在指導中做出的假設。

Our next question will come from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

My first question is just on the kind of the strategy of increasing occupancy and cutting street rate and then using ECRI as a lever to drive rent growth. Has that held up, has that strategy been effective through the quarter? And then along with that, can you talk a bit about just the customers' reception to ECRIs? Has that changed at all?

我的第一個問題是關於增加入住率和降低街價，然後利用 ECRI 作為推動租金成長的槓桿的策略。這種情況是否有效？該策略在本季是否有效？除此之外，您能否談談客戶對 ECRI 的接受度？這有什麼改變嗎？

Sure, Michael. So our strategies are designed to maximize long-term revenue, not to maximize incoming rate or any other metric. And all the testing we do -- that we constantly do shows that to lean into occupancy a little more, lean into acquiring web customers at lower rates because they tend to be the longer-term customers and rely on ECRI produces the best long-term revenue growth. Customers' acceptance of ECRI has not changed at all. We monitor that every month as we send out ECRI notices, and we have not seen any increase in customers vacating the stores because of ECRI. So we believe this strategy is both valid and working.

當然，邁克爾。因此，我們的策略旨在最大化長期收入，而不是最大化傳入率或任何其他指標。我們所做的所有測試 - 我們不斷進行的測試表明，要更多地提高入住率，就要以較低的價格獲取網絡客戶，因為他們往往是長期客戶，並且依靠 ECRI 產生最佳的長期客戶收入增長。客戶對ECRI的接受程度沒有絲毫改變。我們每個月都會在發出 ECRI 通知時對此進行監控，並且我們沒有看到因 ECRI 而離開商店的顧客數量有任何增加。因此，我們相信這項策略既有效又有效。

My follow-up is just on the Life Storage portfolio. Can you kind of -- it sounds like the stuff that you can control within the integration and the environment has been working well. It's kind of some of the stuff that is plaguing the industry, which is kind of the slower demand in the -- the slower demand and also just the pressure on rates is kind of weighing on the ability to generate synergies. Is that right? And then does that kind of change the path to generate the synergies that you expected, whereas like it will not necessarily be generating them all in '24, but it may require kind of a multiyear process to reach that kind of synergy number that you had initially thought of?

我的後續行動只是關於 Life Storage 產品組合。聽起來你可以在整合中控制一些東西，而且環境運作良好。這是困擾該行業的一些問題，即需求放緩——需求放緩以及利率壓力都在某種程度上影響了產生協同效應的能力。是對的嗎？然後，這是否會改變產生您所期望的協同效應的路徑，雖然它不一定會在 24 年產生所有協同效應，但可能需要一種多年的過程才能達到您所擁有的那種協同效應數字最初想到的是？

Yes, it's a great question, and I think it's an accurate assessment of what's going on. The things we control, like G&A and tenant insurance, we're not only working, but working better, as Scott pointed out in his comments, then underwritten. And we're not done there. We're going to continue to look for further savings in those areas. We're out bidding contracts to get savings from the greater scale that we have now. We're going to continue to work real hard to improve on those numbers.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，我認為這是對正在發生的事情的準確評估。正如斯科特在他的評論中指出的那樣，我們控制的事情，例如一般管理費用和租戶保險，我們不僅在工作，而且工作得更好。我們還沒完成。我們將繼續在這些領域尋求進一步的節省。我們正在競標合約，以便從我們現在擁有的更大規模中節省成本。我們將繼續努力提高這些數字。

What's also working is that the Life Storage properties do perform better and are trending better on our systems. But the headwind that we face that we don't control is the market conditions. And that is slowing down the achievement of the full underwritten property synergies.

同樣有效的是，Life Storage 屬性確實表現得更好，並且在我們的系統上趨勢更好。但我們面臨的無法控制的逆風是市場狀況。這正在減緩全面承保財產綜效的實現。

So 2 things are going to happen. The mix of what contributes to the targeted synergies is going to change, and there's going to be less near-term contribution from the properties and more near-term contribution from the other aspects. And depending on where you are in our guidance, it potentially could not occur until after this year. At the high end of our guidance, we'll get real close. And at the lower end of our guidance, we'll fall somewhat short.

所以將會發生兩件事。有助於目標綜效的組合將會發生變化，來自資產的近期貢獻將會減少，而來自其他方面的近期貢獻將會增加。根據我們的指導，這種情況可能要等到今年之後才會發生。在我們指導的高端，我們將非常接近。在我們指導的下限，我們會有些不足。

Our next question will come from the line of Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Thomas。

First, I just wanted to see if you can talk a little bit more about the differences that you're forecasting for same-store revenue growth between the EXR and LSI portfolios. If you can expand a little bit on the primary drivers behind those differences and discuss trends that you're seeing in occupancy and any differences in move-in rates for those 2 portfolios?

首先，我只是想看看您是否可以多談談您對 EXR 和 LSI 產品組合之間同店收入成長的預測差異。您是否可以稍微擴展一下這些差異背後的主要驅動因素，並討論一下您在入住率方面看到的趨勢以及這兩個投資組合的入住率有何差異？

Todd, it's Scott. So a couple of things. One is the occupancy delta. So mid-summer last year, you were 400 basis points difference between the 2 pools. When we -- end of the year, we were 250 basis points different. Today, we're about 200 basis points different through February. We've continued to increase occupancy at the Life Storage properties at a time when we were clearing up some auctions. So during the fourth quarter, we had quite a few auctions there, and so you had more churn than is normally happening.

托德，這是斯科特。有幾件事。一是入住率增量。去年仲夏，兩個池之間存在 400 個基點的差異。當我們 - 年底時，我們存在著 250 個基點的差異。今天，整個 2 月的匯率差異約為 200 個基點。當我們清理一些拍賣品時，我們繼續增加生命儲存設施的入住率。因此，在第四季度，我們在那裡進行了相當多的拍賣，因此客戶流失率比正常情況下要多。

On the positive side of those stores, we have seen customers accept the ECRIs, and they have actually moved out at a slightly lower rate than the Extra Space customers receiving ECRIs. So that's the good news. The thing that has been a bit of a headwind has been the current market conditions. And so we do expect the occupancy gap to close here in this rental season, and we expect to start closing the rate gap also. Today, their stores are priced as much as 10% lower than the Extra Space stores. And as that occupancy gap closes, we would expect to close that gap also.

從這些商店積極的一面來看，我們看到顧客接受了 ECRI，而且他們的搬出率實際上比接受 ECRI 的 Extra Space 顧客略低。這就是好消息。目前的市場狀況一直是個有點不利的因素。因此，我們確實預計在這個租賃季節，入住率差距將會縮小，我們也預計也將開始縮小利率差距。如今，他們的商店價格比 Extra Space 商店低 10%。隨著入住率差距的縮小，我們預期這一差距也會縮小。

Okay. And then it sounded like, I think, Joe, you said that you're encouraged by the rental activity and what you're seeing so far early in the year. Are you able to provide an update on January and February, occupancy and move-in rate trends?

好的。然後聽起來，我想，喬，你說你對租賃活動和今年年初迄今為止所看到的情況感到鼓舞。您能否提供一月和二月入住率和入住率趨勢的最新資訊？

Yes. The occupancy as of today is 93.1% on the Extra Space same-store pool. And so good news, occupancy delta at the end of the year was a negative delta of 110 basis points. Today, it's a positive 40 basis point delta. So strong rentals in the month of January. Now the -- maybe the downside of that is it has come a bit at the expense of rate. Our new customer rate, we've still found some pushback on rate. Rates in the fourth quarter were down 10%, as mentioned in the prepared remarks. During January and February, they're down about 17%.

是的。截至目前，Extra Space 同店池的入住率為 93.1%。好消息是，年底的入住率增量為 110 個基點的負增量。今天，它的增量為 40 個基點。一月份的租金如此強勁。現在，也許它的缺點是它有點以犧牲利率為代價。我們的新客戶費率仍存在一些阻力。正如準備好的評論中所提到的，第四季的利率下降了 10%。 1 月和 2 月期間，下降了約 17%。

But to add some context to that, we pushed rates really hard last year. And so we have actually increased rates again this year December through the end of February, but just not as much as we pushed them last year. So good news is the occupancy is moving in the right direction or at the time of the year when you're usually losing occupancy, but it is coming at the expense of new customer rate.

但為了補充一些背景，我們去年非常努力地提高了利率。因此，今年 12 月至 2 月底，我們實際上再次提高了利率，但幅度沒有去年那麼高。好消息是，入住率正朝著正確的方向發展，或者在一年中通常會失去入住率的時候，但這是以犧牲新客戶率為代價的。

Okay. And that's for the EXR legacy same-store that you're referring to?

好的。這就是您所說的 EXR 傳統同店嗎？

Yes, I'm referring to actually the new same-store pool, which is slightly different, but the old same-store pool occupancy moved almost the exact same, and that's the Extra Space same-store pool. The Life Storage legacy pool, the occupancy delta, as I mentioned, as of today, is about 200 basis points as opposed to at the end of December, it was 250 basis points.

是的，我指的實際上是新的同店池，它略有不同，但舊的同店池佔用率幾乎完全相同，這就是額外空間同店池。正如我所提到的，截至今天，Life Storage 遺留池的佔用增量約為 200 個基點，而 12 月底為 250 個基點。

Okay. That's helpful. Okay. Does the change in the same-store pool for either EXR or LSI have any expected meaningful impact?

好的。這很有幫助。好的。 EXR 或 LSI 同店池的變化是否會產生任何預期的有意義的影響？

Yes. So there's not going to be any change in the LSI pool. We're keeping it the exact same. The Extra Space pool, the benefit in revenues this year is going to be about 40 to 50 basis points, similar to what we've seen in the past, and the occupancy delta as of today, some of -- about 30 basis points of that delta is being generated by the change in pool. So it's moved between December and today, about 140, 150 basis points and 30 basis points of that is due to the change in pool.

是的。因此 LSI 池不會有任何變更。我們保持完全相同。額外空間池，今年的收入收益將約為 40 至 50 個基點，與我們過去看到的類似，截至今天的入住率增量，其中一些約為 30 個基點該增量是由池中的變化產生的。所以從 12 月到現在，它移動了大約 140、150 個基點和 30 個基點，其中 30 個基點是由於資金池的變化造成的。

Our next question will come from the line of Samir Khanal with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Samir Khanal 和 Evercore ISI 的路線。

I guess, Scott, can I ask you to comment on expenses? The midpoint is $475 million, but help us through -- think through the various line items.

我想，斯科特，我可以請你對費用發表評論嗎？中點是 4.75 億美元，但可以幫助我們度過難關——仔細考慮各個項目。

Yes. So the Extra Space pool, the midpoint of $475 million includes an increase of payroll that is inflationary to slightly plus, but call it 3%. Biggest line item in terms of dollar increase is marketing, which includes its upper teens in terms of increase year-over-year, and we're expecting to continue to have to spend on the marketing. We saw that increase as we move through 2023. Property taxes are between 2% and 3%. And then tenant insurance is the biggest line item with closer to 20% growth -- I'm sorry, property and casualty insurance is closer to 20%.

是的。因此，Extra Space 資金池中的 4.75 億美元中位數包括了薪資成長，通膨略有上升，但稱之為 3%。就美元成長而言，最大的項目是行銷，其中同比增長高達十幾歲，我們預計將繼續在行銷上支出。隨著 2023 年的到來，我們看到了這一增長。財產稅在 2% 到 3% 之間。然後，租戶保險是最大的項目，成長接近 20%——抱歉，財產和傷亡保險接近 20%。

Okay. Got it. And just switching gears here, maybe on revenue growth, maybe comment on kind of what you're seeing maybe in the New York region. I looked at your sort of top 3 markets, L.A. and Atlanta holding up versus maybe New York, down about 150 bps sequentially. So maybe give a bit more color on kind of the New York, New Jersey market.

好的。知道了。只是在這裡換個話題，也許是關於收入成長，也許是對你在紐約地區看到的情況發表評論。我研究了前 3 名的市場，洛杉磯和亞特蘭大的表現相對穩定，而紐約可能比上一季下降了約 150 個基點。因此，也許可以對紐約、新澤西市場的情況進行更多的描述。

Sure. So the New York, New Jersey MSA market is -- I think it's being driven down or negatively impacted by Northern New Jersey. So if you look at the borough, the borough continues to outperform our portfolio as it has for the last 3 or 4 quarters. New York was a laggard for a while and now New York -- markets rotate, and now New York is performing very well. But Northern New Jersey, in particular, is dragging down the overall MSA performance.

當然。因此，我認為新澤西州紐約市的 MSA 市場正在受到新澤西州北部的壓低或負面影響。因此，如果你看看該行政區，你會發現該行政區的表現繼續優於我們的投資組合，就像過去三、四個季度一樣。紐約曾經一度落後，但現在紐約——市場輪換，現在紐約表現非常好。但新澤西州北部尤其拖累了 MSA 的整體表現。

Our next question will come from the line of Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題將來自豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

In terms of the move-in, move-out rates, that's very helpful in the disclosure. Can you just give us a feel for how you're thinking about that sequential benefit, which you did cite some sequential benefit expected in the move-in rates this year. Is it going to be a similar shape to last year, how it played out in terms of looking at, say, midyear move-in rates versus the ending fourth quarter rates in 2022?

就遷入、遷出率而言，這對揭露非常有幫助。您能否讓我們了解您如何看待連續效益，您確實引用了今年入住率中預期的一些連續效益。從年中入住率與 2022 年第四季末的入住率來看，它的表現是否會與去年類似？

We would expect it to be somewhat of a bell curve with less negative churn in the summer months than today. This is kind of the depths of that negative churn end of the year until end of February. And that 35 -- negative 35% that you saw in our subs, but we would expect it to go more similar. And we hope to get rate power. We hope to flatten that out somewhat.

我們預期它會呈現某種鐘形曲線，夏季的負流失率會比現在少。這是今年年底到二月底的負面波動最嚴重的程度。你在我們的潛艇中看到的 35 - 負 35%，但我們希望它會更加相似。我們希望獲得額定功率。我們希望能在一定程度上解決這個問題。

Okay. Great. Just 1 other question on the $0.20 of dilution from acquisitions and such, is that relating to something more than the $250 million of acquisitions in the guidance? Is there some impact from last year? It just seems a lot for like -- about a $44 million overall number. So I just want to make sure I understood what that related to.

好的。偉大的。還有一個問題是關於收購等帶來的 0.20 美元稀釋，這是否與指南中 2.5 億美元的收購有關？去年的影響有嗎？類似的數字似乎很多——大約 4400 萬美元。所以我只是想確保我理解這與什麼有關。

This is the impact of last year's lease-up assets, including certificate of occupancy and this year. So it's things that aren't in the same-store pool, basically.

這是去年租賃資產（包括佔用證書）和今年的影響。所以基本上這些東西不在同一個商店池中。

Our next question will come from the line of Spenser Allaway with Green Street.

我們的下一個問題將來自斯賓塞·阿拉維（Spenser Allaway）與格林街（Green Street）的聯繫。

Maybe we could just circle back to expense management. Again, just given the environment and there being minimal new customer demand, how important do you view marketing aggressively right now when customers are presumably making storage decisions based on proximity and price?

也許我們可以回到費用管理上來。再說一次，考慮到環境和新客戶需求極少，當客戶可能根據鄰近性和價格做出儲存決策時，您現在認為積極行銷有多重要？

So I just want to clarify, there's not minimal new customer demand. We're still renting an awful lot of units every month. It's just that the price sensitivity of those customers is such that we're not successful in pushing prices. Marketing spend is -- I'm sorry...

所以我只是想澄清一下，新客戶的需求並不是最低的。我們每個月仍然租用大量的單位。只是這些客戶的價格敏感度太高，導致我們推價並不成功。行銷支出是——對不起…

No, no, no. That's a -- that was a fair point. So thank you for the clarification.

不不不。這是一個公平的觀點。謝謝您的澄清。

Sure. So marketing spend, which is only about 2% of revenue, we really look at it as an investment. We're happy to spend or willing to spend the marketing dollars as long as we can get an ROI in those dollars. And we have a metric that we use to make sure we're not -- we're getting a good return on every marketing dollar we spend.

當然。因此，行銷支出僅佔收入的 2% 左右，我們確實將其視為一項投資。只要我們能夠獲得投資報酬率，我們就樂意或願意花費行銷資金。我們有一個衡量標準來確保我們沒有——我們花費的每一塊行銷資金都獲得了良好的回報。

Okay. And then can you comment on how the cost of marketing, like in terms of Google Clicks and ad space today compares with historical norms? Just trying to understand if how that fares relative to historic norms and trying to understand that some of the increase in marketing is just due to higher absolute cost of advertising versus maybe the amount you are advertising versus last year?

好的。然後您能否評論一下行銷成本（例如今天的 Google 點擊次數和廣告空間）與歷史標準相比如何？只是想了解相對於歷史標準的情況是否如此，並試圖了解行銷的一些增長只是由於廣告的絕對成本高於去年的廣告金額？

It is slightly higher. That's certainly a factor. We also are using spare foot more than we have in the past. It was a lesson we learned from the LSI merger, and that has a slightly higher cost.

稍微高一些。這當然是一個因素。我們也比過去更多地使用備用腳。這是我們從LSI合併中學到的教訓，而且成本稍高。

Okay. And then maybe just 1 last one, if I can. Just looking at your marketing performance, can you just -- market performance, excuse me, can you just comment on what was driving the expense cut in your Chicago market?

好的。如果可以的話，也許只是最後一個。看看你的行銷表現，你能——市場表現，對不起，你能評論一下是什麼推動了芝加哥市場的費用削減嗎？

It's property tax appeals. So it's successful appeals and so you had negative expense effectively in some of those stores.

這是財產稅上訴。因此，這是一項成功的上訴，因此您在其中一些商店中實際上產生了負費用。

Our next question will come from the line of Eric Wolfe with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Eric Wolfe。

You mentioned that LSI rates were getting a bit closer to legacy EXR in the same submarket, but still 10% below. Just curious if you achieve your guidance for this year. It sounds like maybe you still have another, call it, 8% or 9% on rate to get to a similar level. Is that the right way to think about it?

您提到，在同一子市場中，LSI 費率已接近傳統 EXR 費率，但仍低 10%。只是好奇您是否實現了今年的指導。聽起來也許你還有另一個，稱之為 8% 或 9% 的利率來達到類似的水平。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

So depending on where you are in the range that the rates do go up, and we do assume that they'll move in the right direction. And we are seeing that as you move throughout the year, the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter is a normal time when you do see rent per square foot tick down. That's not odd. You saw that in the portfolio. It was also impacted a bit by some of the churn from auctions, but as we move into January, February, we are seeing that rent gap continue to close and move in the right direction.

因此，根據您所在的範圍，利率確實會上升，我們確實假設它們會朝著正確的方向發展。我們發現，當您全年搬家時，與第三季相比，第四季是每平方英尺租金確實下降的正常時期。這並不奇怪。您在投資組合中看到了這一點。它也受到了一些拍賣的影響，但隨著進入一月、二月，我們看到租金差距繼續縮小並朝著正確的方向發展。

Okay. And then in your January slide deck, you said that 62% of customers are staying longer than 12 months, 45% longer than 2 years. I was just curious what type of ECRIs these customers are getting versus shorter duration customers. Obviously, moving rates have gone down, the cost goes up. So trying to understand if the magnitude of difference between those longer duration versus shorter duration customers is changing?

好的。然後在 1 月的幻燈片中，您表示 62% 的客戶停留時間超過 12 個月，45% 超過 2 年。我只是很好奇這些客戶獲得的 ECRI 類型與期限較短的客戶相比是什麼類型。顯然，搬家費率下降了，成本上升了。那麼，想了解那些長期客戶與短期客戶之間的差異程度是否正在改變？

So the shorter duration customers will typically get a larger ECRI if they came in on some type of promotional or introductory rate. And after that, the longer-term customers typically will get a smaller percentage increase because we're just trying to get them to street rate.

因此，如果期限較短的客戶以某種類型的促銷或介紹費率進入，他們通常會獲得更大的 ECRI。之後，長​​期客戶通常會獲得較小的百分比成長，因為我們只是想讓他們達到街頭價格。

Okay. And then maybe just one last clarification. Did you say in response to the prior question, the $0.20 of dilution from C of O value-add acquisitions was really just from the prior year because if you kind of just take your share count times of $0.20, it's sort of like $45 million. So trying to understand how you'd get to that level of dilution based on the amount of acquisitions that you just referenced?

好的。然後也許只是最後一項澄清。您在回答上一個問題時是否說過，C of O 增值收購帶來的0.20 美元稀釋實際上只是上一年的數據，因為如果您只將股票計數乘以0.20 美元，那就相當於4500 萬美元。那麼，試著了解如何根據您剛才提到的收購數量達到這種稀釋程度？

Yes. So that actually comes from multiple years. So some of those C of Os are from 2022 C of Os, 2023 C of Os, 2024 C of Os, certificate of occupancy deals. It's basically as they get up to the run rate of a stabilized property. And so it's not just 2024 dilution and 2024 ads. It's multiple years. All we're trying to show there is the potential upside if we were to stop adding to that portfolio or to that pool of properties.

是的。所以這實際上來自多年。因此，其中一些 C of Os 來自 2022 C of Os、2023 C of Os、2024 C of Os、佔用證書交易。這基本上是因為他們達到了穩定財產的運行速度。因此，這不僅僅是 2024 年稀釋和 2024 年廣告。已經很多年了。我們試圖表明，如果我們停止增加該投資組合或該房產池，則存在潛在的上行空間。

Our next question will come from the line of Keegan Carl with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Keegan Carl。

Maybe first just, what are you guys currently seeing in the transaction market that gives you confidence in your target? And where are you seeing stabilized cap rates at today?

也許首先，你們目前在交易市場上看到的是什麼讓你們對自己的目標充滿信心？您認為今天資本化率穩定在哪裡？

So most of our guidance towards acquisition is already identified and under contract. I think we own about $50 million unidentified. And I think between now and the end of the year, we'll find $50 million. And if it makes sense, we'll find more. And if it doesn't make sense, we won't do it, right? We have plenty of capital, but we're only going to do things that are accretive to our shareholders.

因此，我們對收購的大部分指導已經確定並已簽訂合約。我認為我們擁有大約 5000 萬美元，但身份不明。我認為從現在到今年年底，我們將籌集到 5000 萬美元。如果它有意義，我們會發現更多。如果沒有意義，我們就不會這樣做，對嗎？我們擁有充足的資本，但我們只會做對股東有利的事。

Market cap rate, I think, is a very difficult discussion. Transaction volume is very low, transactions that we see close seem to have a story to them, the last property in a closed-end fund or a family where something happened to the patriarch or matriarch who own the property. There doesn't seem to be enough transactions where you can really say this is a market cap rate. So it's a very difficult thing, and I wouldn't want to put a number on it.

我認為，市值率是一個非常困難的討論。交易量非常低，我們看到的接近的交易似乎都有一個故事，封閉式基金中的最後一個財產或擁有財產的族長或女族長發生了什麼事的家庭。似乎沒有足夠的交易可以真正說這是市值率。所以這是一件非常困難的事情，我不想給一個數字。

Got it. That's fair. And I'm going to sound like a broken record here on this one. I'm going to ask another question about the Storage Express deal. So I know when you guys initially mentioned you were going to swap some stores between that platform and your Extra Space platform. Just curious what you've learned so far, and if we can expect some more assets, especially from the LSI portfolio to be added to this platform in 2024?

知道了。這還算公平。我的聲音聽起來就像是一張破唱片。我要問另一個有關 Storage Express 交易的問題。所以我知道當你們最初提到你們要在該平台和額外空間平台之間交換一些商店時。只是好奇您到目前為止學到了什麼，以及我們是否可以期望在 2024 年將更多資產（尤其是來自 LSI 產品組合的資產）添加到該平台？

Yes. I think we will see more changes in Extra Space Storage Express and Life Storage stores as we learn how best to optimize revenue and then optimize NOI at these stores. And we're really trying to learn what is the mix of size of the store, rent per square foot population saturation, distance from another one of our branded stores, prime rates in the area, lots and lot driving distances, lots and factors that we can optimize NOI with a store that has -- is fully staffed, that is partially staffed or that is managerless, if you will. And as we learn those lessons, we'll apply it not only to our existing portfolio, but to our acquisition strategy.

是的。我認為，當我們了解如何最好地優化收入並優化這些商店的 NOI 時，我們將看到 Extra Space Storage Express 和 Life Storage 商店發生更多變化。我們確實在努力了解商店的規模、每平方英尺的租金、人口飽和度、與我們另一家品牌商店的距離、該地區的優惠價格、地段和地段的駕駛距離、地段和因素的組合。如果你願意的話，我們可以優化NOI 的商店，無論是配備齊全的人員、部分人員還是無人管理的商店。當我們吸取這些教訓時，我們不僅會將其應用於我們現有的投資組合，還將應用於我們的收購策略。

Are you willing to share any sort of quantification of performance on stores you would have shifted from one platform to another? Is it too early to sell?

您是否願意分享您將從一個平台轉移到另一個平台的商店績效的任何量化數據？現在賣還太早嗎？

I mean the only thing I'm really willing to share because some of this, I think, is secret sauce is Storage Express had some stores that were fairly large, right? Their average store size was 36,000 square feet, half of our average store size. They had some stores that were 80,000 square feet. And we didn't -- those stores don't make any sense to work on a managerless basis.

我的意思是我真正願意分享的唯一一件事是因為我認為其中一些秘訣是 Storage Express 有一些相當大的商店，對嗎？他們的平均商店面積為 36,000 平方英尺，是我們平均商店面積的一半。他們有一些商店面積達 80,000 平方英尺。但我們沒有——那些商店在沒有經理的情況下運作沒有任何意義。

Our next question will come from the line of Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的羅納德·卡姆德姆 (Ronald Kamdem)。

Great. 2 quick ones from me. So the first is I just want to understand the comments on the ECRIs. So it sounds like there's been sort of no change in magnitude for sort of frequency. Just want to make sure I understand that correctly. And then how should we think about the first half versus second half of the year cadence as you're going through the same store?

偉大的。我的 2 個快速的。首先，我只是想了解有關 ECRI 的評論。所以聽起來頻率的幅度沒有改變。只是想確保我理解正確。那麼，當您經過同一家商店時，我們應該如何考慮上半年和下半年的節奏？

So there's -- in general, there's no -- we haven't made any change in frequency for ECRI. Where -- that being said, we're always testing things. So there are outliers. And what was the second question?

所以，總的來說，我們沒有對 ECRI 的頻率做出任何改變。話雖這麼說，我們總是在測試東西。所以存在異常值。第二個問題是什麼？

The cadence. And Ron, I think the best way to look at that is it depends a little bit on where you are in the guidance. So if you are at the bottom end of the guidance, that obviously is going to imply that you're negative for longer, midpoint, you're negative. Even at the top end of guidance, it does imply that you do stick slightly negative for a period of time. But I think in none of those scenarios do we have kind of the Nike swoosh, so to speak, where you see rapid acceleration.

節奏。羅恩，我認為看待這個問題的最佳方法是，這在一定程度上取決於您在指南中的位置。因此，如果你處於指導的底部，這顯然意味著你在較長時間內處於消極狀態，中點，你是消極的。即使在指導的最高端，它確實意味著你確實會在一段時間內保持輕微的負面情緒。但我認為在這些情況下，我們都沒有那種耐吉旋風，可以說，你可以看到快速加速。

And the concept there is we have so many customers moving in each month at lower rates that it does take some time to move those rates up and to really start seeing that accelerate. So even if you did get pricing power this summer, the benefit of those pricing -- of those customers wouldn't necessarily impact you until later in the year as they got rate increases and into next year.

我們的概念是，我們每個月都有如此多的客戶以較低的費率進入，因此確實需要一些時間才能提高這些費率並真正開始看到這種加速。因此，即使您今年夏天確實獲得了定價權，這些客戶的定價優勢也不一定會對您產生影響，直到今年晚些時候，因為他們的利率會上漲並進入明年。

Great. And then my second one, if I may. I think one of your competitors made an interesting comment that they'd actually already seen some of their markets start to accelerate and that maybe the markets that went up higher during COVID were taking a little bit sort of longer. And I guess I'm curious, as you're thinking about your portfolio, you guys have been much more successful than peers pushing pricing. Can you comment around, is there a sort of different markets in different stages? And have you seen some already maybe start to turn around and pick up?

偉大的。如果可以的話，然後是我的第二個。我認為你們的一位競爭對手發表了有趣的評論，他們實際上已經看到一些市場開始加速成長，也許在新冠疫情期間上漲的市場需要更長的時間。我想我很好奇，當你考慮你的投資組合時，你們比同行推動定價要成功得多。您能否評論一下，不同階段是否有不同的市場？你有沒有看到一些可能已經開始轉身並拾起的東西？

So I think different markets are always in different stages, right? I commented earlier on New York being above portfolio performer in 2023, and it was below in 2021 and '20. Florida was a great market for prior years, and Florida is having more difficulty now. And it's one reason that we believe in a highly diversified portfolio because we want to have exposure to all sorts of markets, markets that are accelerating, decelerating, more flat.

所以我認為不同的市場總是處於不同的階段，對吧？我之前評論過紐約在 2023 年的表現高於投資組合表現，但在 2021 年和 20 年低於表現。佛羅裡達州前幾年是一個很好的市場，但現在佛羅裡達州面臨更大的困難。這也是我們相信高度多元化投資組合的原因之一，因為我們希望接觸各種市場，這些市場正在加速、減速、更穩定。

Markets that have no exposure to new development, have more exposure to new development or coming out of the development cycle. And by having a highly diversified portfolio, and our portfolio got more diversified with this merger, we think we'll smooth out our returns. So I don't know if I can identify a major market that's accelerating. We certainly have markets like Los Angeles that are still doing very well. But I don't know of a major market that's accelerating.

沒有接觸新開發案的市場，多接觸新開發案或走出開發週期。透過擁有高度多元化的投資組合，而我們的投資組合透過這次合併變得更加多元化，我們認為我們將平滑我們的回報。所以我不知道我是否能確定一個正在加速發展的主要市場。當然，像洛杉磯這樣的市場仍然表現良好。但我不知道哪個主要市場正在加速成長。

Great. We appreciate the new move-in disclosures. That was helpful.

偉大的。我們讚賞新的入住披露。這很有幫助。

Our next question will come from the line of Michael Mueller with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自邁克爾·穆勒 (Michael Mueller) 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的對話。

So hopefully 2 quick ones here. First, how far through the planned LSI ECRIs are you? And then on the investment front, for the C, Os and lease-up acquisitions, are you seeing more opportunities on, I guess, maybe somewhat busted developments or on just new -- brand-new ground-up investments?

所以希望這裡有 2 個快速的。首先，您規劃的 LSI ECRI 進展到什麼程度了？然後在投資方面，對於 C、O 和租賃收購，您是否在（我猜）可能有些失敗的開發項目或全新的基礎投資上看到了更多機會？

So we've completed the ECRI program for all LSI customers who were customers at closing. So they're now on the normal site. As new customers come in, they'll be on the normal program. I don't think we've seen many busted developments or developments that are leasing up as well. They're disappointed development that look like really attractive opportunities to us yet. I don't think that's meaningful.

因此，我們已經為所有 LSI 客戶完成了 ECRI 計劃，這些客戶是交易結束時的客戶。所以他們現在在正常網站上。當新客戶進來時，他們將遵循正常計劃。我認為我們還沒有看到很多開發項目被破壞或正在出租。他們對發展感到失望，而這對我們來說似乎是真正有吸引力的機會。我認為這沒有意義。

Our next question will come from the line of Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Eric Luebchow。

Great. Could you comment a little bit on the dual brand strategy, if you're seeing any top-of-funnel benefits from operating LSI and EXR separately in some of your markets or if extra operating expenses make that too complicated or costly in terms of operations?

偉大的。如果您看到在某些市場中單獨運營 LSI 和 EXR 帶來的任何漏斗頂部的好處，或者額外的運營費用使運營變得過於複雜或成本高昂，您能否對雙品牌戰略發表一些評論？ ？

Sure. Thank you for the question. So the premise of the dual brand strategy was that by having more digital real estate, we would get more clicks and therefore, more rentals, and that would pay for the incremental cost of running 2 brands. So if you think of the Google landscape in 3 pieces, there's the paid section. And we absolutely are having more digital real estate and more clicks there. And that's because we pay for it. So that's easy. We knew that would happen.

當然。感謝你的提問。因此，雙品牌策略的前提是，透過擁有更多的數位資產，我們將獲得更多的點擊量，從而獲得更多的租金，這將支付經營兩個品牌的增量成本。因此，如果您將 Google 格局分為三部分，那就是付費部分。我們絕對擁有更多的數位資產和更多的點擊量。那是因為我們為此付出了代價。所以這很容易。我們知道會發生這種情況。

And then the local section in the map where the map of peers, we are seeing more presence there, and that's continuing to improve over time. So that seems to be working as planned. And then the last section, the SEO section or the organic section takes time, right? When we buy an individual property, it takes time for us to get that property up to the Extra Space, organic standards. So that's moving in the right direction, but we really need more time to see where we'll end up, and if that trade-off of more clicks, more rentals is revenue positive.

然後是地圖中的本地部分，即同行地圖，我們在那裡看到了更多的存在，隨著時間的推移，這種情況正在不斷改善。所以這似乎正在按計劃進行。最後一個部分，SEO 部分或有機部分需要時間，對吧？當我們購買個人房產時，我們需要時間才能使該房產達到額外空間的有機標準。所以，這正在朝著正確的方向發展，但我們確實需要更多的時間來看看我們最終會走向何方，以及更多點擊量和更多租金的權衡是否能帶來積極的收入。

Okay. Appreciate that. And just 1 follow-up on the guide, and I know Scott touched on this, that -- so the G&A guide of $180 million plus, I know you had some seasonality in your Q4, but you're at a run rate of around $160 million annualized. And maybe you could just kind of help us bridge those 2 numbers when we'll see kind of more of the G&A cost synergies that you touched on really flow into the P&L from the G&A side?

好的。感謝。只是指南的 1 個後續行動，我知道斯科特談到了這個，那個 - 所以 1.8 億美元的 G＆A 指南，我知道你在第四季度有一些季節性，但你的運行率約為年化1.6億美元。當我們看到您提到的更多 G&A 成本協同效應真正從 G&A 方面流入損益表時，也許您可以幫助我們彌補這兩個數字？

Yes. So the synergies are assuming that the $180 million and not the lower number, the number that you saw in the fourth quarter, they would have been even greater than the $39 million that we referred to if we were able to achieve the fourth quarter run rate. Now that doesn't mean we're done there. I think that we're going to continue to look for opportunities. That number in the fourth quarter was just a fair amount under due to some transition of employees and hiring and timing and when we brought things on as well as there is some seasonality to our G&A with the fourth quarter, not being the highest quarter.

是的。因此，協同效應假設 1.8 億美元，而不是較低的數字，即您在第四季度看到的數字，如果我們能夠實現第四季度的運行率，它們甚至會大於我們提到的 3900 萬美元。現在這並不意味著我們已經完成了。我認為我們將繼續尋找機會。由於員工、招聘和時間安排的一些轉變，以及我們開始工作時的一些變化，以及第四季度的一般管理費用存在一些季節性，而不是最高的季度，第四季度的這個數字只是一個相當大的數字。

Our next question will come from the line of Ki Bin Kim with Truist.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Ki Bin Kim 和 Truist 的對話。

Just going back to the street rates. I know this is just n variable to the whole equation, but I was curious at the midpoint of your guidance, what you're implying for street rates for the year in 2024?

回到街頭價格。我知道這只是整個方程式的 n 個變量，但我很好奇您的指導的中點，您對 2024 年的街道費率意味著什麼？

So it's difficult to break it out exactly. I think that we are saying we don't expect to get significant growth in street rates. They will be at the midpoint, we do expect occupancy to be relatively flat. But we don't feel like it's helpful to necessarily break those out since there's one component of the total model, but we are not expecting significant street rate power this year.

所以很難準確地破解它。我認為我們的意思是，我們預計街道價格不會大幅成長。它們將處於中間位置，我們確實預計入住率將相對持平。但我們不認為將這些因素分開是有幫助的，因為整個模型只有一個組成部分，但我們預計今年的街道電價不會有顯著的成長。

But I'm guessing you probably expect it to reach flat year-over-year at some point in the second half. Is that fair to assume?

但我猜你可能會預計下半年某個時候它會與去年同期持平。這樣假設公平嗎？

Sequentially, we do expect them to go up month-over-month. I think it will depend a little bit on how this leasing season goes. I think that we were disappointed last year. We were at a point last year where we raised rates significantly January through March. And then the leasing season came and the housing, the lack of home sales, I think, impacted last year. And so I think that we're a little gun shy and don't want to make that mistake again.

接下來，我們確實預期它們會逐月上升。我認為這將在一定程度上取決於這個租賃季節的進展。我認為去年我們很失望。去年我們在一月到三月期間大幅提高了利率。然後租賃季節到來，我認為房屋銷售的缺乏對去年產生了影響。所以我認為我們有點害羞，不想再犯同樣的錯誤。

Okay. And the second question on your bridge loans, you guys are guiding for a pretty substantial increase in activity. Also curious if you can provide some color around kind of implied valuation cap rates or LTVs, just to get a better sense of what those deals look like?

好的。關於過渡貸款的第二個問題，你們正在指導活動大幅增加。還想知道您是否可以提供有關隱含估值上限或生命週期價值的一些信息，只是為了更好地了解這些交易是什麼樣的？

Yes. So part of the increase in bridge loan balances is our plan to hold more of the whole notes and not sell as many A notes. Now that can change as the year unfolds. But the whole bridge loan now is 8.5% to 9%. So we don't feel that's a bad use of capital at this point. The fundamentals of the loans are unchanged. We still will end up to 80% of our underwritten value. We'll take operating reserve and interest reserve that's a recourse obligation to a creditworthy entity. So we know that there's capital to pay the debt service and operate the property. We require that we manage the property. We require an interest rate cap, which is less important now than when we started the program. So the fundamentals of the loan program haven't changed.

是的。因此，過橋貸款餘額增加的部分原因是我們計劃持有更多的完整票據，而不是出售那麼多的 A 票據。現在，隨著時間的推移，這種情況可能會改變。但現在整個過橋貸款是8.5%到9%。因此，我們目前並不認為這是對資本的不當利用。貸款的基本面沒有變動。我們最終仍將達到承保價值的 80%。我們將提取營業準備金和利息準備金，這是對信譽良好的實體的追索義務。所以我們知道有資本來償還債務和經營財產。我們要求我們管理該財產。我們需要設定利率上限，但現在這並不像我們開始該計劃時那麼重要。因此，貸款計劃的基本面沒有改變。

And you do have a pretty sizable maturity in the bridge loan program in 2025. What's the base case scenario? Is that those become kind of rolled over and extended? Or do they truly mature, and we should just model in some decreases in interest income?

到 2025 年，過橋貸款計劃確實有相當大的期限。基本情況是什麼？那些是否會被翻滾並延長？或者它們真的成熟了，我們應該模擬利息收入的一些下降嗎？

I'm not sure there is a base case. I mean we're going to handle every loan as it comes up, and I think some will extend, some will get paid off and some will buy the collateral. And growth -- I think the attractiveness of the product will remain, and we should continue to be able to make new loans to backfill ones that are maturing in some way or another.

我不確定是否有基本情況。我的意思是，我們將處理每筆貸款，我認為有些會延期，有些會被還清，有些會購買抵押品。和成長—我認為該產品的吸引力將繼續存在，我們應該繼續能夠發放新貸款，以填補以某種方式到期的貸款。

Our next question will come from the line of Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的凱特琳·伯羅斯 (Caitlin Burrows)。

Maybe could you give us some more color on new supply expectations for deliveries this year, but also what are you seeing on starts, timing of construction, and how that impacts your longer-term view?

也許您能給我們更多關於今年交付的新供應預期的信息，以及您對開工、施工時間的看法，以及這對您的長期看法有何影響？

So our data, which we look at for our properties, not for the overall development landscape is pretty encouraging. We see about a 30% drop in Extra Space same-store pools that will be affected by new development in 2024. And when you look at all our wholly-owned stores, it's even a larger drop, almost 40%. So new development isn't going away. We still have to -- the market still has to lease up the ones that were delivered in prior years, but the environment is certainly getting better.

因此，我們針對我們的房產而不是整體開發景觀的數據非常令人鼓舞。我們預計，受到 2024 年新開發案的影響，Extra Space 同店池將下降 30% 左右。如果你看看我們所有的全資門市，下降幅度甚至更大，接近 40%。因此，新的發展不會消失。我們仍然必須——市場仍然需要出租前幾年交付的設備，但環境肯定會變得更好。

Got it. Okay. And then maybe just one more to follow up on move-in rate topics, which has been talked about a lot. I'm wondering if you could just comment on how you expect either EXR and/or the industry to regain pricing power with new customers? Is it housing market related and you need that to pick up? I know you mentioned marketing spend will be up, but what makes this new customer pricing power improve? And is there anything you can do to help it?

知道了。好的。然後也許還有一個是為了跟進入住率話題，這個話題已經被討論了很多。我想知道您是否可以評論一下您期望 EXR 和/或行業如何重新獲得新客戶的定價權？這與房地產市場有關嗎？你需要它來回升嗎？我知道您提到行銷支出將會增加，但是什麼讓新客戶的定價能力提高了呢？你能做些什麼來幫助它嗎？

So the housing market certainly will help, but it's not the sole driver of demand for self-storage. I think just people moving more, whether right now, almost half of the people who tell us they're storing because they're moving or moving apartment to apartment. So more transition is just good. The single-family home rental business, the more that grows, I think that's great. That helps people move in and out of homes without having to buy them without having to worry about a mortgage. So a strong economy is always better than a weak economy and all indications are now that we're going to have more of a soft landing than a recession. So I think all of those things can help improve customer demand.

因此，房地產市場肯定會有所幫助，但它並不是自助倉儲需求的唯一驅動力。我認為人們搬家的次數更多了，無論是現在，幾乎一半的人告訴我們他們正在搬家，因為他們正在搬家或從一個公寓搬到另一個公寓。所以更多的過渡是好的。單戶住宅租賃業務成長得越多，我認為這很好。這可以幫助人們搬進搬出房屋，而無需購買房屋，而不必擔心抵押貸款。因此，強勁的經濟總是比疲軟的經濟好，現在所有跡像都表明我們將更多地實現軟著陸而不是衰退。所以我認為所有這些事情都可以幫助改善客戶需求。

Our next question will come from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 BMO 資本市場的胡安·薩納布里亞 (Juan Sanabria)。

This is Robin Haneland, filling in for Juan. I just wanted to follow up on how you expect move-out and move-in spreads to trend throughout the year? And what is the spread for Life Storage? And how do you expect that spread to trend?

我是羅賓漢蘭 (Robin Haneland)，接替胡安 (Juan)。我只是想跟進您預計全年遷出和遷入價差的趨勢如何？ Life Storage 的點差是多少？您預期這種價差的趨勢如何？

Yes. So we focus as much on occupancy as we do move-ins and move-outs, and I'll give you an example. I mean, Life Storage in the quarter and the fourth quarter elevated move-outs due to the auctions, but they also had elevated move-ins. So we're managing probably more to occupancy than we are move-ins and move-outs, and we are assuming that occupancy is fairly flat throughout this year. On the Extra Space same-store pool, the Life Storage pool, we would expect to close that gap. So we would expect move-ins to be higher than move-outs.

是的。因此，我們對入住率的關注與對遷入和遷出的關註一樣多，我舉個例子。我的意思是，由於拍賣，Life Storage 在本季和第四季的遷出量有所增加，但遷入量也有所增加。因此，我們對入住率的管理可能比遷入和遷出更多，並且我們假設今年的入住率相當平穩。在 Extra Space 同店池（Life Storage 池）上，我們希望縮小這一差距。因此，我們預計遷入人數將高於遷出人數。

And do you feel like you're ready to reengage in sort of larger external growth at this point? Or are you still focused internally on executing Life Storage?

您覺得此時您是否已準備好重新參與更大的外部成長？或者您內部仍然專注於執行 Life Storage？

So we're absolutely focused on achieving our goals with the Life Storage portfolio. We are also very focused on the testing and efforts we're making with respect to remote management. I think that will be another big point. We will grow our management business significantly this year. We added not including the LSI assets. We added 225 new managed stores last year. That's the most we've ever added in a year, and we have a very significant and robust pipeline there. We've talked about the bridge loan program. We'll continue to grow that.

因此，我們絕對專注於透過 Life Storage 產品組合實現我們的目標。我們也非常注重在遠端管理方面所做的測試和努力。我認為這將是另一個重點。今年我們的管理業務將大幅成長。我們新增了不包括 LSI 資產的內容。去年我們新增了 225 家管理商店。這是我們一年來增加的最多的，而且我們在那裡有一個非常重要和強大的管道。我們已經討論過橋貸款計劃。我們將繼續發展這一點。

And I think our joint venture partners were somewhat quiet in 2023, but there's indications that, that will turn around, and that's great capital-light accretive growth for us. and we'll certainly get back into that business. So we're in a position to take advantage of whatever growth that is both strategic and accretive, and we're not afraid to do so.

我認為我們的合資夥伴在 2023 年有些安靜，但有跡象表明，這種情況將會扭轉，這對我們來說是巨大的輕資本增值增長。我們肯定會重新開始這項業務。因此，我們能夠利用任何策略性和增值性的成長，而且我們並不害怕這樣做。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Joe Margolis for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給喬·馬戈利斯，讓他作結束語。

Lots of questions about the overall environment and what our assumptions were for them. And I can't tell you whether our assumptions are right or wrong. But I do have an extraordinary amount of confidence that no matter what the market conditions, our platform and our people are in a position to maximize our performance and take advantage of whatever occurs in the market. So thank you all for your time today, and thank you for your interest in Extra Space.

關於整體環境以及我們對他們的假設的許多問題。我無法告訴你我們的假設是對還是錯。但我確實非常有信心，無論市場狀況如何，我們的平台和我們的員工都能夠最大限度地提高我們的業績並充分利用市場上發生的任何情況。感謝大家今天抽出寶貴的時間，也感謝大家對 Extra Space 的興趣。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。