European Wax Center Inc (EWCZ) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to European Wax Center's Second (sic) [Third] Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Amir Yeganehjoo, Senior Vice President of Financial Planning and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

    女士們先生們,下午好,感謝你們的支持。歡迎來到歐洲蠟中心的第二(原文如此)[第三]季度 2022 財年收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)此時,我想將會議轉交給財務規劃和投資者關係高級副總裁 Amir Yeganehjoo。先生,您可以開始了。

  • Amir Yeganehjoo - VP, FP&A, IR & Treasury

    Amir Yeganehjoo - VP, FP&A, IR & Treasury

  • Thank you, and welcome to European Wax Center's Third Quarter Fiscal '22 Earnings Call. With me today are David Berg, Chief Executive Officer; and David Willis, Chief Financial and Chief Operating Officer. For today's call, David Berg will begin with a brief review of our third quarter performance and discuss our progress against our fiscal '22 priorities. Then David Willis will provide additional details regarding our financial performance and our guidance. Following our prepared remarks, David Berg, David Willis and I will be available to take your questions.

    謝謝,歡迎來到歐洲蠟中心的第三季度財政 '22 收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是首席執行官 David Berg;首席財務官兼首席運營官 David Willis。在今天的電話會議上,David Berg 將首先簡要回顧我們第三季度的業績,並討論我們在 22 財年優先事項方面取得的進展。然後 David Willis 將提供有關我們財務業績和指導的更多詳細信息。在我們準備好的發言之後,David Berg、David Willis 和我將可以回答您的問題。

  • Before we start, I would like to remind you of our legal disclaimer. We will make certain statements today, which are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements about the outlook of our business and other matters referenced in our earnings release issued today. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings as well as our earnings release issued today for a more detailed description of the risk factors that may affect our results. Please also note that these forward-looking statements reflect our opinion only as of date of this call, and we take no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision or forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您我們的法律免責聲明。我們今天將發表某些聲明,這些聲明在聯邦證券法的意義上是前瞻性的,包括關於我們業務前景的聲明以及我們今天發布的收益報告中提到的其他事項。這些前瞻性陳述涉及許多可能導致實際結果大不相同的風險和不確定性。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及我們今天發布的收益報告,以更詳細地描述可能影響我們業績的風險因素。另請注意,這些前瞻性陳述僅反映我們截至此次電話會議之日的意見,我們沒有義務根據新信息或未來事件修改或公開發布任何修訂或前瞻性陳述的結果。

  • Also during this call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust our GAAP results to eliminate the impact of certain items. You will find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP to GAAP measures in our earnings release.

    同樣在這次電話會議中,我們將討論非 GAAP 財務措施,這些措施調整我們的 GAAP 結果以消除某些項目的影響。您將在我們的收益發布中找到有關這些非 GAAP 財務措施的更多信息以及這些非 GAAP 與 GAAP 措施的調節。

  • A live broadcast of this call is also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.waxcenter.com.

    我們網站 investors.waxcenter.com 的投資者關係部分也提供此次電話會議的現場直播。

  • I will now turn the call over to David Berg.

    我現在將把電話轉給 David Berg。

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Amir, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to deliver Q3 performance in line with our expectations, continuing to demonstrate the strength of the European Wax Center business model and our strong guest relationships. I'm especially proud that our says and does continue to match in the midst of a very dynamic consumer environment. I want to thank both our team and our franchise partners who continue to execute on our initiatives, while delighting our loyal guests with exceptional service. Even in an uncertain macroeconomic environment, the recurring nature of hair growth and our position as the leader in the out-of-home hair removal category reinforces our confidence in the strength and resiliency of our model and our long-term growth trajectory.

    謝謝你,阿米爾,大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。我們很高興第三季度的業績符合我們的預期,繼續展示歐洲蠟像中心商業模式的實力和我們強大的客戶關係。我感到特別自豪的是,在一個充滿活力的消費環境中,我們的言行繼續保持一致。我要感謝我們的團隊和我們的特許經營合作夥伴,他們繼續執行我們的計劃,同時以卓越的服務取悅我們忠實的客人。即使在不確定的宏觀經濟環境中,頭髮生長的反復發生以及我們作為戶外脫毛類別領導者的地位,也增強了我們對我們模式的實力和彈性以及我們的長期增長軌蹟的信心。

  • From a top line standpoint, we delivered on our 2 key growth drivers, new center openings and same-store sales. We opened 18 new centers, ending the quarter with 911 centers across 45 states. With all remaining new fiscal 2022 centers currently under construction and greater visibility to their opening dates, we are once again raising our expectations for fiscal 2022 net new centers to 88 to 90, which represents a year-over-year increase of more than 10%.

    從頂線的角度來看,我們實現了 2 個主要增長動力,即新中心開業和同店銷售。我們開設了 18 個新中心,本季度末在 45 個州擁有 911 個中心。由於所有剩餘的 2022 財年新中心目前都在建設中,而且它們的開放日期更加透明,我們再次將 2022 財年淨新中心的預期提高到 88 到 90 個,這意味著同比增長超過 10% .

  • Turning to our second growth vector. We delivered 4.7% same-store sales growth, driven primarily by pricing actions we took earlier this year. In our third quarter, we generated 7% system-wide sales growth to $235 million, 12% total revenue growth to $55 million and 13% adjusted EBITDA growth to $18.6 million. With the first 3 quarters of the year behind us, we have more visibility to the remainder of 2022 and thus are able to narrow our full year outlook within the financial ranges we set in March and raised in May, underscoring the durability of our business during a year of macroeconomic challenges.

    轉向我們的第二個增長向量。我們實現了 4.7% 的同店銷售額增長,這主要是由我們今年早些時候採取的定價行動推動的。第三季度,我們全系統銷售額增長 7% 至 2.35 億美元,總收入增長 12% 至 5500 萬美元,調整後 EBITDA 增長 13% 至 1860 萬美元。隨著今年前 3 個季度的過去,我們對 2022 年剩餘時間有了更多的了解,因此能夠將我們的全年展望縮小到我們在 3 月份設定並在 5 月份提出的財務範圍內,這突顯了我們業務的持久性充滿宏觀經濟挑戰的一年。

  • We believe our strategic priorities for 2022 will pave the way for our continued long-term growth. As a reminder, those priorities are: one, expanding our national footprint through new centers; two, capitalizing on our enhanced marketing and loyalty programs to drive deeper customer engagement; three, increasing the pipeline of lack specialists to support our long-term growth; four, leveraging our scale to benefit our supply chain and franchisees; and five, optimizing our capital structure to lower our cost of capital and increase flexibility. I'll cover our progress on the first 2 initiatives in depth as well as provide an update on steps we are taking to enhance our capital allocation strategy and then turn the call over to David Willis to discuss the remaining priorities and our updated guidance for the year.

    我們相信,我們 2022 年的戰略重點將為我們持續的長期增長鋪平道路。提醒一下,這些優先事項是:第一,通過新中心擴大我們在全國的足跡;第二,利用我們增強的營銷和忠誠度計劃來推動更深入的客戶參與;三、增加缺乏專家的管道以支持我們的長期增長;第四,利用我們的規模使我們的供應鍊和加盟商受益;五是優化資本結構,降低資本成本,提高靈活性。我將深入介紹我們在前兩項舉措方面取得的進展,並提供我們為加強資本配置戰略而採取的最新措施,然後將電話轉給大衛威利斯討論剩餘的優先事項和我們更新的指導方針年。

  • First up, expanding our national footprint through new centers. We have the potential to reach 3,000 European Wax Centers domestically. And at just over 900 centers today, we are less than 1/3 penetrated. We're targeting a long-term high single-digit unit growth to capitalize on our white space, focusing first on the top 20 DMAs in the United States. We are not fully penetrated in any market and with growth opportunities everywhere, our development team continues to deliver. For instance, we are bringing together growth partners and existing operators who have committed to expand in underpenetrated markets like Los Angeles and Milwaukee. These partnerships are ideal for us as they marry the real estate, commercial and broader franchising expertise of an institutional growth partner with the deep European Wax Center knowledge and operational excellence of an existing EWC franchisee.

    首先,通過新中心擴大我們在全國的足跡。我們有潛力在國內覆蓋 3,000 個歐洲蠟像中心。今天在 900 多個中心,我們的滲透率不到 1/3。我們的目標是實現長期的單位數高增長,以利用我們的空白空間,首先關注美國前 20 大的 DMA。我們沒有完全滲透到任何市場,到處都有增長機會,我們的開發團隊繼續交付。例如,我們將致力於在洛杉磯和密爾沃基等滲透率低的市場擴張的增長合作夥伴和現有運營商聚集在一起。這些合作夥伴關係對我們來說是理想的選擇,因為它們將機構增長合作夥伴的房地產、商業和更廣泛的特許經營專業知識與現有 EWC 加盟商對歐洲蠟像中心的深厚知識和卓越運營相結合。

  • We have nearly a dozen institutional and self-funded growth partners whose multiunit commitments comprise more than 2/3 of our development pipeline. Demand from additional partners remains robust, and we continue to work on navigating entry points for these institutions to join the network and grow with us. We are still in the early innings of opening centers through these very exciting partnerships. At the same time, commitments from the smaller operators in our network are as strong as ever.

    我們有近十幾個機構和自籌資金的增長合作夥伴,他們的多單位承諾占我們開發管道的 2/3 以上。來自其他合作夥伴的需求依然強勁,我們將繼續努力為這些機構尋找入口點以加入網絡並與我們一起成長。通過這些非常令人興奮的合作夥伴關係,我們仍處於開放中心的早期階段。與此同時,我們網絡中較小運營商的承諾一如既往地堅定。

  • The majority of our 2022 growth is still coming from these non-institutional players with our compelling unit economics, including a modest upfront investment of approximately $350,000, average unit volumes of over $1 million at maturity and robust 4-wall margins that remain above pre-pandemic levels, existing franchisees still make up more than 90% of our pipeline. In fact, our 3 largest franchisees each opened their 50th European Wax Center during Q3 and have future growth ahead of them as they continue to sign up for additional licenses.

    我們 2022 年的大部分增長仍來自這些具有令人信服的單位經濟效益的非機構參與者,包括約 350,000 美元的適度前期投資、到期時的平均單位數量超過 100 萬美元以及仍然高於前期的強勁 4 牆利潤率大流行水平,現有加盟商仍然占我們渠道的 90% 以上。事實上,我們的 3 家最大的特許經營商在第三季度分別開設了他們的第 50 個歐洲蠟像中心,並且隨著他們繼續簽署額外的許可證,未來的增長將遙遙領先。

  • It's also important to note that both small and large franchisees are well capitalized, whether with institutional funds or through the 60% cash-on-cash returns generated by their existing mature centers. As a result, rising interest rates have not impacted demand for licenses. We recently held our first brand conference since the pandemic began, and nearly 90% of our franchisees were represented. The feedback was overwhelmingly positive as franchisees gave us a 98% conference satisfaction rating. After networking with each other, sharing best practices, viewing our updated center designs and learning new ways to elevate their businesses, franchisees are more enthusiastic than ever about growing with European Wax Center.

    同樣重要的是要注意,小型和大型特許經營商都擁有充足的資本,無論是使用機構資金還是通過其現有成熟中心產生的 60% 的現金回報率。因此,利率上升並未影響對許可證的需求。我們最近舉行了自大流行開始以來的第一次品牌會議,近 90% 的加盟商都出席了會議。加盟商給了我們 98% 的會議滿意度評級,反饋非常積極。在彼此建立聯繫、分享最佳實踐、查看我們更新的中心設計並學習提升業務的新方法之後,特許經營商比以往任何時候都更加熱衷於與歐洲蠟像中心一起成長。

  • As I mentioned earlier, as a result of this continued momentum, we are once again raising our new center expectations for 2022. Fixture and permitting constraints also continue to ease, and we have even greater visibility to the timing of upcoming center openings. We now expect 88 to 90 net new centers this year. And with the continued strength of our pipeline, we see a clear path to open at least 90 net new centers in 2023.

    正如我之前提到的,由於這種持續的勢頭,我們再次提高了對 2022 年新中心的預期。夾具和許可限制也繼續放鬆,我們對即將到來的中心開放時間有了更大的了解。我們現在預計今年將有 88 到 90 個淨新中心。隨著我們管道的持續發展,我們看到了一條清晰的道路,可以在 2023 年淨開設至少 90 個新中心。

  • In summary, franchisee confidence in our brand, business model and leadership position spurs demand for new centers, which in turn gives us confidence in achieving our high single-digit long-term growth targets and continuing to take share in our growing highly fragmented industry.

    總之,特許經營商對我們的品牌、商業模式和領導地位的信心刺激了對新中心的需求,這反過來又使我們有信心實現我們高個位數的長期增長目標,並繼續在我們不斷增長的高度分散的行業中佔有一席之地。

  • Our second strategic priority is leveraging our marketing and loyalty programs to drive customer acquisition and engagement. With inflation on the rise, we are laser-focused on engaging both new and existing guests, deepening our relationship with them and driving visits into our centers. As a reminder, our marketing and loyalty tools are unmatched by other players in the out-of-home waxing and hair removal categories. The vast majority of out-of-home waxing is performed by independent proprietors who lack the resources and scale to reach guests in our capacity as the industry leader.

    我們的第二個戰略重點是利用我們的營銷和忠誠度計劃來推動客戶獲取和參與。隨著通貨膨脹率的上升,我們專注於吸引新客人和現有客人,加深我們與他們的關係並推動我們中心的訪問量。提醒一下,我們的營銷和忠誠度工具是戶外脫毛和脫毛類別中其他參與者無法比擬的。絕大多數戶外打蠟是由獨立經營者進行的,他們缺乏資源和規模來以我們作為行業領導者的身份接觸到客人。

  • We are confident that the superiority of our business model and the guest-facing actions we are taking enable us to successfully manage through macroeconomic uncertainty and emerge stronger over the long term. Our customer demographics skew toward higher earning guests with average household incomes of over $100,000 and our most engaged guests have significantly higher household incomes. For context, our services start at just $12 a service, and our average service is about $34, making European Wax Center a highly efficient and cost-effective choice for hair removal. Top quintile guests visit us nearly 10x per year and continue to drive more than half of our sales dollars. Most importantly, current economic conditions have not impacted our top guests visit frequency and their spending with European Wax Center has actually increased. This tells us that despite the impact of rising inflation, these guests remain committed to their EWC waxing routines and view our services as non-discretionary. We believe the recurring nature of hair growth and the loyalty of our top quintile meaningfully limits the impact of a tough macroeconomic backdrop.

    我們相信,我們的商業模式的優越性和我們正在採取的面向客人的行動使我們能夠成功地應對宏觀經濟的不確定性,並在長期內變得更加強大。我們的客戶人口統計數據傾向於平均家庭收入超過 100,000 美元的高收入客人,而我們最活躍的客人的家庭收入要高得多。就上下文而言,我們的服務起價僅為每項服務 12 美元,平均服務費約為 34 美元,這使得 European Wax Centre 成為脫毛的高效且具有成本效益的選擇。前五分之一客人每年訪問我們近 10 次,並繼續推動我們超過一半的銷售額。最重要的是,當前的經濟狀況並沒有影響我們頂級客人的訪問頻率,他們在歐洲蠟像中心的消費實際上有所增加。這告訴我們,儘管通貨膨脹率上升的影響,這些客人仍然致力於他們的 EWC 打蠟程序,並認為我們的服務是非自由裁量權的。我們認為,頭髮生長的反復發生和我們最高五分之一的忠誠度有意義地限制了嚴峻的宏觀經濟背景的影響。

  • As we discussed last quarter, in the middle of Q2, we started to see some of our less frequent episodic guests increase their time between waxes. Transaction volumes rebounded late in the second quarter, but did not fully recover to where they were compared to the beginning of 2022. While both ramping and mature centers continue to comp positively, transaction volume has been down low single digits year-over-year since we exited the second quarter. In response to these trends, we proactively launched several initiatives for the back half of this year to mitigate the impact. Let me review these.

    正如我們在上個季度所討論的那樣,在第二季度中期,我們開始看到一些不太頻繁的客人增加了他們在蠟台之間的時間。交易量在第二季度末出現反彈,但並未完全恢復到與 2022 年初相比的水平。儘管發展中的中心和成熟的中心都繼續取得積極進展,但自那以來交易量同比下降了低個位數我們退出了第二季度。為了應對這些趨勢,我們在今年下半年主動推出了多項舉措以減輕影響。讓我回顧一下這些。

  • First, to address the upfront cost of buying a wax pass, we offered guests a limited time 3 plus 1 wax pass. That is purchasing 4 services for the price of 3. We believe this promotion would attract guests that might be too cost conscious in this environment to financially commit to our traditional package of 11 to 12 services. We were pleased to see a significant uptake in the 3 plus 1 offer that drove higher wax pass volume and conversion year-over-year. It also drove incremental frequency since 3/4 of guests who purchased the 3 plus 1 in August have already used at least 2 of their services by the end of September. We believe these guests are ideal candidates to buy a larger package over -- once they deplete their 3 plus 1 balance. Therefore, we are leveraging our CRM tools to target and incentivize them through loyalty rewards to purchase our semiannual 9 plus 3 wax pass offering in the fourth quarter.

    首先,為了解決購買蠟像通行證的前期費用,我們為客人提供限時 3 加 1 蠟像通行證。即以 3 項的價格購買 4 項服務。我們認為,此促銷活動會吸引在這種環境下過於注重成本的客人,而不會在經濟上承諾我們傳統的 11 至 12 項服務套餐。我們很高興看到 3 加 1 產品的大量採用,推動了更高的蠟通過量和同比轉化率。它還推動了頻率的增加,因為 3/4 在 8 月購買 3 plus 1 的客人在 9 月底之前已經使用了至少 2 項他們的服務。我們相信這些客人是購買更大套餐的理想人選——一旦他們的 3 加 1 餘額用完。因此,我們正在利用我們的 CRM 工具通過忠誠度獎勵來定位和激勵他們在第四季度購買我們半年一次的 9 加 3 蠟通產品。

  • Wax Pass holders tend to buy more, visit more and stay active longer. They generate 3x the revenue of non-wax pass holders visit twice as many times per year and make up nearly 60% of our transactions. Beyond the 3 plus 1 promotion, broader wax pass sales for the third quarter also remained strong, which underscores the future value of these loyal guests who will help support revenue during economic headwinds.

    Wax Pass 持有者傾向於購買更多商品、訪問更多商品並保持更長時間的活躍。他們產生的收入是非蠟像通行證持有人每年訪問次數的兩倍,占我們交易的近 60%。除了 3 加 1 促銷活動外,第三季度更廣泛的蠟票銷售也保持強勁,這凸顯了這些忠實客人的未來價值,他們將在經濟逆風期間幫助支撐收入。

  • Our other Q3 levers focused on rebookings, new services and referrals. With these familiar initiatives, our franchisees have historically demonstrated an outstanding operational focus that enables them to execute successfully. First, guests are stickier and visit more when they book their next appointment before leaving the center. We ran a rebooking contest for the network, and we're pleased to see a meaningful uptick in rebooking rate.

    我們在第三季度的其他槓桿側重於重新預訂、新服務和推薦。通過這些熟悉的舉措,我們的特許經營商歷來展示了出色的運營重點,使他們能夠成功執行。首先,客人在離開中心之前預訂下一次約會時會更加粘性並且訪問更多。我們為網絡舉辦了重新預訂競賽,我們很高興看到重新預訂率顯著上升。

  • Second, we reintroduced a discount for guests adding on a new service for the first time. Not only does this drive incremental revenue through increased services per transaction, but it gives us an additional touch point to introduce wax pass savings to a cost-conscious guest. Lastly, to attract new guests, we doubled our referral rewards bonus amount and saw new guest referral rates increase significantly. Ultimately, all of these efforts helped us deliver third quarter financial results in line with our expectations, aligning our says and does once again.

    其次,我們重新為首次添加新服務的客人提供折扣。這不僅通過增加每筆交易的服務來增加收入,而且還為我們提供了一個額外的接觸點,可以為註重成本的客人介紹蠟票節省。最後,為了吸引新客人,我們將推薦獎勵獎金增加了一倍,新客人推薦率顯著提高。最終,所有這些努力幫助我們實現了符合預期的第三季度財務業績,再次調整了我們的言行。

  • In terms of the fourth quarter, we are hyper-focused on initiatives that have been proven to drive the business, while maintaining strong 4-wall margins. We are working closely with our franchisees to incentivize wax specialists and associates by extending our rebooking contest. We have also extended the new service discount to continue to drive services per transaction. As with the 3 plus 1 wax pass guest, we believe guests adding on a new service are ideal candidates for an additional wax pass. Therefore, we're targeting them for our traditional 9 plus 3 wax pass offer as well.

    就第四季度而言,我們高度關注已被證明可以推動業務的舉措,同時保持強勁的 4 牆利潤率。我們正在與我們的特許經營商密切合作,通過擴大我們的重新預訂競賽來激勵蠟專家和員工。我們還延長了新的服務折扣,以繼續推動每筆交易的服務。與 3 加 1 蠟通行證的客人一樣,我們認為添加新服務的客人是額外蠟通行證的理想人選。因此,我們也將他們作為我們傳統的 9 加 3 蠟票優惠的目標。

  • In addition, we launched our semiannual 9 plus 3 offer 2 weeks earlier. Typically, this promotion to buy 12 services for the price of 9 takes place annually in May, June, November and December. We began offering the 9 plus 3 package in mid-October this year and have seen encouraging early uptake. We are running a wax pass conversion test in center for both wax specialists and guest service associates, highlighting the promotion on our earned social media challenges and using targeted communications to educate guests on the value of having a wax pass.

    此外,我們提前 2 週推出了半年一次的 9 加 3 優惠。通常,每年 5 月、6 月、11 月和 12 月都會以 9 的價格購買 12 項服務。我們在今年 10 月中旬開始提供 9 加 3 套餐,並且看到了令人鼓舞的早期採用。我們正在中心為蠟像專家和賓客服務助理進行蠟像通行證轉換測試,突出宣傳我們贏得的社交媒體挑戰,並使用有針對性的交流來教育賓客了解擁有蠟像通行證的價值。

  • As a reminder, these actions are enabled by our scale as the dominant category leader in a highly fragmented space. As we continue to deploy levers to drive long-term wax pass adoption, recurring frequency and guest loyalty, we believe we are taking the right steps to navigate a challenged environment and continue to take market share.

    提醒一下,這些行動是由我們在高度分散的空間中作為主導類別領導者的規模促成的。隨著我們繼續部署槓桿來推動長期蠟通採用、重複頻率和客人忠誠度,我們相信我們正在採取正確的步驟來應對充滿挑戰的環境並繼續佔據市場份額。

  • Finally, I want to highlight that our Board of Directors has taken an important step, underscoring its confidence in the future of our business with the authorization of a $40 million share repurchase program. Given our asset-light, capital-light business model and ability to generate significant free cash flow, we are confident that this authorization adds an accretive component to our capital allocation strategy and increases our flexibility to continue to deliver long-term shareholder value.

    最後,我想強調的是,我們的董事會已經邁出了重要的一步,通過 4000 萬美元的股票回購計劃的授權,強調了其對我們業務未來的信心。鑑於我們的輕資產、輕資本業務模式和產生大量自由現金流的能力,我們有信心這項授權為我們的資本配置戰略增加了一個增值部分,並增加了我們繼續創造長期股東價值的靈活性。

  • Now I'd like to hand the call over to David Willis to review our remaining strategic priorities, our third quarter performance and our guidance for the balance of the year. David, over to you.

    現在我想把電話轉給大衛威利斯來審查我們剩餘的戰略重點、我們第三季度的業績和我們對今年餘下時間的指導。大衛,交給你了。

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • Thanks, David, and good afternoon, everyone. Our third priority, increasing the pipeline of wax specialists will ensure the brand has the service providers needed to support our long-term unit growth. As I shared last quarter, we will always focus on engaging and retaining top talent at our franchise locations. To that end, we've been working to diligently strengthen the European Wax Center reputation on 2 of the top online hiring platforms, Glassdoor and Indeed.

    謝謝大衛,大家下午好。我們的第三個優先事項是增加蠟專家的渠道,這將確保該品牌擁有支持我們長期單位增長所需的服務提供商。正如我在上個季度分享的那樣,我們將始終專注於在我們的特許經營地點吸引和留住頂尖人才。為此,我們一直在努力提高歐洲蠟像中心在兩個頂級在線招聘平台 Glassdoor 和 Indeed 上的聲譽。

  • We're excited that our Glassdoor metrics have been steadily increasing throughout the year, and our Indeed rating has reached a 2-year high. During Q3, we also completed an exciting overhaul of our careers web page. Having a robust career site is critical as it drives twice the conversion rate for interested applicants as compared to third-party hiring platforms. Online applications to our franchise centers have grown year-over-year for the past 6 months straight, and the brand is now receiving more than 1,000 application submissions per month from prospective wax specialists. More robust site engagement reporting is also helping us design wax specialist content that can be leveraged moving forward to promote the brand with targeted associates.

    令我們興奮的是,我們的 Glassdoor 指標全年都在穩步增長,我們的 Indeed 評分也達到了 2 年來的最高水平。在第 3 季度,我們還對我們的職業網頁進行了令人興奮的大修。擁有一個強大的求職網站至關重要,因為與第三方招聘平台相比,它可以為感興趣的求職者帶來兩倍的轉化率。在過去的 6 個月裡,我們特許經營中心的在線申請數量逐年增長,該品牌現在每月收到來自潛在蠟專家的 1,000 多份申請。更強大的網站參與度報告也幫助我們設計蠟專家內容,可以利用這些內容向前推進以向目標員工推廣品牌。

  • I also shared in Q2 that we implemented new labor utilization reporting for our franchisees. Through this tool, we are helping franchisees optimize staffing in their centers, and we saw wax specialist utilization rates continue to improve in Q3. We are also providing additional resources around in-center turnover and retention rates. At our recent brand conference that David just mentioned, 2/3 of the session is focused on employee recruiting, management and retention, and our franchisees share their enthusiasm for the recent initiatives we've rolled out. From a long-term standpoint, we continue to launch partnerships and produce educational content to support our beauty school outreach programs.

    我還在第二季度分享了我們為加盟商實施了新的勞動力利用報告。通過這個工具,我們正在幫助加盟商優化他們中心的人員配置,我們看到蠟專家的利用率在第三季度繼續提高。我們還提供有關中心營業額和保留率的額外資源。在大衛剛剛提到的我們最近的品牌會議上,會議的 2/3 集中在員工招聘、管理和保留上,我們的加盟商分享了他們對我們最近推出的舉措的熱情。從長遠的角度來看,我們將繼續建立合作夥伴關係並製作教育內容,以支持我們的美容學校外展計劃。

  • We recently partnered with Styles, a social media platform with more than 50,000 beauty students, graduates and professionals to produce a European Wax Center channel within the platform. Our content provides awareness and insight around a career in waxing to our target audience and should serve as an ideal way to introduce potential wax specialists to the brand over time. Government data shows that the industry for cosmetologists and skin care specialists is expected to grow by double-digit rates through 2031, and we believe our efforts will enable us to attract this growing pool of talent and deliver on our unit growth targets for years to come.

    我們最近與擁有超過 50,000 名美容學生、畢業生和專業人士的社交媒體平台 Styles 合作,在該平台內製作了一個歐洲蠟中心頻道。我們的內容為我們的目標受眾提供了關於打蠟職業的認識和見解,並且隨著時間的推移應該成為向品牌介紹潛在打蠟專家的理想方式。政府數據顯示,到 2031 年,美容師和皮膚護理專家行業預計將以兩位數的速度增長,我們相信我們的努力將使我們能夠吸引這一不斷增長的人才庫,並實現我們未來幾年的單位增長目標.

  • Our fourth priority is to continue leveraging our scale and enhance our supply chain and share these benefits with our franchisees. Our scale as the category leader, enables us to address supply chain risks in ways smaller players simply cannot. We have the leverage with both our suppliers and franchisees to mitigate cost increases and protect our gross margins. While the current environment continues to be dynamic, international freight rates have stabilized from second quarter peaks. Compared to traditional retailers, we have a limited number of SKUs and minimal inventory obsolescence risk, which we view as a competitive advantage. We have nearly 6 months of wax on hand and a healthy inventory position for our retail products. Ultimately, we believe we are well positioned in this environment and confident in our ability to manage through inflation and potential disruption with the levers we have in place.

    我們的第四個優先事項是繼續利用我們的規模並加強我們的供應鏈,並與我們的加盟商分享這些好處。我們作為類別領導者的規模,使我們能夠以較小的參與者根本無法解決的方式解決供應鏈風險。我們對供應商和特許經營商都有影響力,可以減輕成本增加並保護我們的毛利率。雖然當前環境繼續充滿活力,但國際運費已從第二季度的峰值穩定下來。與傳統零售商相比,我們的 SKU 數量有限且庫存過時風險極小,我們將其視為競爭優勢。我們手頭有近 6 個月的蠟和零售產品的健康庫存狀況。最終,我們相信我們在這種環境中處於有利地位,並且相信我們有能力利用我們現有的槓桿來應對通貨膨脹和潛在的破壞。

  • Finally, our fifth priority is to optimize our capital structure. Our whole business securitization completed in April this year enabled us to advantageously secure a fixed 5.5% interest rate. Importantly, the securitization contains no operating covenants that would constrain our growth. And the terms afford us tremendous flexibility as we continue to address our white space and expand the brand. As we continue to optimize our balance sheet, we are adding another lever to our existing capital allocation strategy with the announcement of a share repurchase authorization of up to $40 million of our Class A common stock. Given our fixed rate long-term facility and our capital-light asset-light business model that enables us to generate meaningful free cash flow, we are confident in our liquidity position and an ability to deliver long-term shareholder value.

    最後,我們的第五個重點是優化我們的資本結構。我們於今年 4 月完成的整體業務證券化使我們能夠有利地獲得 5.5% 的固定利率。重要的是,證券化不包含會限制我們增長的運營契約。隨著我們繼續解決空白和擴展品牌,這些條款為我們提供了巨大的靈活性。隨著我們繼續優化我們的資產負債表,我們正在為我們現有的資本配置策略增加另一個槓桿,宣布股票回購授權高達 4000 萬美元的 A 類普通股。鑑於我們的固定利率長期貸款和輕資本輕資產業務模式使我們能夠產生有意義的自由現金流,我們對我們的流動性狀況和實現長期股東價值的能力充滿信心。

  • Turning to our Q3 financial performance. As David mentioned, we delivered solid results in line with our expectations. Thanks in part to the guest-facing initiatives we launched early in the quarter. Q3 system-wide sales increased 7.3% to $235.2 million and total revenue of $55 million rose 12.3% from Q3 last year. Total revenue growth exceeded system-wide sales growth due to the medical supply arrangement with franchisees that began early in 2022, which should generate approximately $10 million in total revenue for European Wax Center this year.

    轉向我們第三季度的財務業績。正如 David 提到的,我們交付了符合我們預期的可靠結果。部分歸功於我們在本季度初推出的面向客人的計劃。第三季度全系統銷售額增長 7.3% 至 2.352 億美元,總收入為 5500 萬美元,比去年第三季度增長 12.3%。由於與特許經營商的醫療供應安排於 2022 年初開始,因此總收入增長超過了全系統的銷售增長,這將為歐洲蠟像中心今年帶來約 1000 萬美元的總收入。

  • In terms of same-store sales, new and existing centers generated a combined 4.7% increase. New centers continue to deliver a strong and predictable ramp to maturity, which is a significant contributor to our overall comp performance. Mature centers are also continuing to generate positive comps, driven by the pricing actions we took earlier this year. From a transaction standpoint, our third quarter run rate remained consistent with how we exited Q2 and that has continued into Q4.

    就同店銷售額而言,新中心和現有中心合計增長了 4.7%。新中心繼續提供強大且可預測的成熟度提升,這是對我們整體表現的重要貢獻。在我們今年早些時候採取的定價行動的推動下,成熟的中心也在繼續產生積極的影響。從交易的角度來看,我們第三季度的運行率與我們退出第二季度的方式保持一致,並且一直持續到第四季度。

  • As David mentioned earlier, transaction volume across the network is down low single digits year-over-year, driven by fewer visits from our lower quintile episodic guests. However, our top quintile guests who drive over half of network sales remain strong and active. Due to the strength of these guests and the initiatives David described, we are able to deliver the third quarter in line with our expectations. We delivered $18.6 million in adjusted EBITDA, up from $16.5 million in Q3 last year. Adjusted EBITDA margins were flat year-over-year, largely due to public company costs and our medical supply arrangement with franchisees. As we've said before, this arrangement is approximately 250 basis points dilutive to gross margin rates in 2022, but accretive to gross margin dollars.

    正如 David 之前提到的,整個網絡的交易量同比下降了低個位數,這是由於我們較低的五分之一情景客人的訪問量減少所致。然而,推動超過一半網絡銷售額的前五分之一客人仍然強勁而活躍。由於這些客人的力量和大衛描述的舉措,我們能夠按照我們的預期交付第三季度。我們交付了 1860 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA,高於去年第三季度的 1650 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率同比持平,這主要是由於上市公司成本以及我們與特許經營商的醫療供應安排。正如我們之前所說,這種安排對 2022 年的毛利率約有 250 個基點的稀釋作用,但會增加毛利率。

  • More importantly, it optimizes the procurement process for our network. Interest expense decreased to $6.8 million. Interest expense in the same quarter last year was $9.5 million, which included $6.3 million in debt extinguishment costs related to the refinancing transaction concurrent with our IPO. Excluding those charges, interest expense would have increased $3.6 million year-over-year due to higher debt balances and interest rates driven by the 5.5% fixed rate refinancing we completed in April of this year.

    更重要的是,它優化了我們網絡的採購流程。利息支出減少至 680 萬美元。去年同期的利息支出為 950 萬美元,其中包括 630 萬美元與我們 IPO 同時進行的再融資交易相關的債務清償成本。不包括這些費用,由於我們在今年 4 月完成的 5.5% 固定利率再融資導致債務餘額和利率增加,利息支出將同比增加 360 萬美元。

  • Income tax expense was negligible as expected, due to our valuation allowance and adjusted net income was $6.7 million. In terms of the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $41.6 million in cash, $399 million outstanding under our senior secured notes and our $40 million revolver remains fully undrawn.

    由於我們的估值津貼和調整後的淨收入為 670 萬美元,所得稅費用可以忽略不計。在資產負債表方面,我們在本季度結束時擁有 4160 萬美元的現金、3.99 億美元的優先擔保票據未償付以及 4000 萬美元的循環貸款仍未完全使用。

  • Net cash provided by operating activities was $27.9 million year-to-date compared to only $100,000 in investing outflows, a hallmark of our asset-light, capital-light model. Finally, I'd like to provide some detail on our updated outlook for fiscal 2022. As David described, we now have clear visibility into our remaining 2022 new center openings. As a result, we are raising our outlook to 88 to 90 net new locations this year compared to previous guidance of 83 to 85 centers.

    年初至今,經營活動提供的現金淨額為 2790 萬美元,而投資流出僅為 100,000 美元,這是我們輕資產、輕資本模式的標誌。最後,我想提供一些關於我們對 2022 財年最新展望的詳細信息。正如大衛所描述的,我們現在對 2022 年剩餘的新中心開放情況有了清晰的了解。因此,我們將今年的淨新地點展望提高到 88 到 90 個,而之前的指導是 83 到 85 個中心。

  • As a reminder, we began the year with guidance of 70 to 72 net new centers and our growing pipeline, combined with an improving construction and permitting environment has given us confidence to continue raising our outlook. While these incremental 2022 openings would have otherwise opened early next year, the entire license pipeline is strong, and we plan to open at least 90 centers in 2023 as well.

    提醒一下,我們年初的指導是 70 到 72 個淨新中心和我們不斷增長的管道,再加上不斷改善的建築和許可環境,使我們有信心繼續提高我們的前景。雖然這些 2022 年新增的開放中心本來會在明年初開放,但整個許可管道很強大,我們也計劃在 2023 年開放至少 90 個中心。

  • From a modeling standpoint, sales at our new centers typically build up throughout the first year to nearly $500,000 in year 1 and continue to ramp to more than $1 million in year 5 when they are considered mature. Considering this maturity curve, we don't expect a material impact to 2022 sales from the incremental centers this year.

    從建模的角度來看,我們新中心的銷售額通常會在第一年增加到第一年的近 500,000 美元,並在被認為成熟的第五年繼續攀升至超過 100 萬美元。考慮到這條成熟度曲線,我們預計今年增量中心不會對 2022 年的銷售額產生重大影響。

  • Turning to our financial guidance for 2022. Based on our year-to-date performance and expectations for the remainder of the year, we are pleased to be able to narrow our guidance well within the ranges that we set at the beginning of the year before the dynamic macroeconomic landscape became a top headline. Our guidance contemplates the slight year-over-year decline in transaction volumes that we began to see this summer and discussed on our Q2 earnings call.

    轉向我們對 2022 年的財務指導。根據我們年初至今的表現和對今年剩餘時間的預期,我們很高興能夠將我們的指導縮小到我們在前一年年初設定的範圍內動態的宏觀經濟格局成為頭條新聞。我們的指引考慮了今年夏天我們開始看到並在第二季度財報電話會議上討論的交易量同比小幅下降。

  • For fiscal 2022, we now expect system-wide sales between 885 and $895 million. Total revenue between 202 and $205 million and same-store sales of approximately 9.5%. We expect gross margin of approximately 71.5% and interest expense of approximately $23.5 million, which includes the $2 million of debt extinguishment costs incurred in Q2. Adjusted net leverage at the end of the year should be at or below 5x based on a revised adjusted EBITDA outlook of $70 million to $71 million. This is excluding any leverage impact from potential buybacks.

    對於 2022 財年,我們現在預計全系統銷售額在 885 至 8.95 億美元之間。總收入在 202 至 2.05 億美元之間,同店銷售額約為 9.5%。我們預計毛利率約為 71.5%,利息支出約為 2350 萬美元,其中包括第二季度產生的 200 萬美元債務清償成本。根據 7000 萬美元至 7100 萬美元的修訂後調整後 EBITDA 前景,年底調整後的淨槓桿率應等於或低於 5 倍。這不包括潛在回購的任何槓桿影響。

  • Given our ownership structure and current valuation allowance, our outlook still assumes negligible corporate income tax expense this year. All in, we expect 2022 adjusted net income between 27.5 and $28.5 million. We are confident in the strength of our business model, our loyal customer base and the recurring nature of hair growth to insulate us from significant shifts in consumer sentiment. However, we are mindful that the macroeconomic environment may not improve in the short term. As we think ahead to 2023, we also assume current transaction trends will continue through at least the first half of next year given the current landscape. We intend to continue leveraging the tools at our disposal, marketing outreach, network incentives, guest-facing promotions and service innovation to continue taking share in this highly fragmented category. We remain laser-focused on delivering against our long-term growth objectives. We are pleased that notwithstanding the costs incurred this year to operate as a first-time public company, 2022 is expected to generate growth at or above our longer-term targets. We recognize that while there may be some noise in the short term, over a multiyear period, we expect to deliver compounding annual growth of high single digits for new centers, high single digits for same-store sales, low double digits for total revenue and low to mid-teens for adjusted EBITDA.

    鑑於我們的所有權結構和當前的估值準備金,我們的前景仍然假設今年的企業所得稅費用可以忽略不計。總而言之,我們預計 2022 年調整後的淨收入在 27.5 至 2850 萬美元之間。我們對我們的商業模式的實力、我們忠實的客戶群和頭髮生長的周期性特性充滿信心,這將使我們免受消費者情緒重大變化的影響。然而,我們注意到宏觀經濟環境短期內可能不會改善。當我們展望 2023 年時,我們還假設當前的交易趨勢至少會持續到明年上半年。我們打算繼續利用我們掌握的工具、營銷推廣、網絡激勵、面向客人的促銷和服務創新,以繼續在這個高度分散的類別中佔據份額。我們仍然專注於實現我們的長期增長目標。我們很高興,儘管今年作為首次上市公司運營產生了成本,但預計 2022 年的增長將達到或超過我們的長期目標。我們認識到,雖然短期內可能會有一些噪音,但在多年期間,我們預計新中心的複合年增長率將達到高個位數,同店銷售額將達到高個位數,總收入將達到低兩位數,以及調整後的 EBITDA 處於中低水平。

  • Before we take questions, I'd like to turn the call back to David for final remarks. David?

    在我們提問之前,我想把電話轉回給大衛,讓他做最後的評論。大衛?

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, David. In summary, European Wax Center's strong asset-light business model is generating significant cash flow and driving results for our guests, franchisees and shareholders. We remain the dominant player in a highly fragmented industry based on a recurring need, hair removal. While not immune to inflation, our core guests remain extremely engaged, demonstrating that a challenging macro environment does not change their appetite for our services.

    謝謝,大衛。總而言之,歐洲蠟像中心強大的輕資產業務模式正在為我們的客人、加盟商和股東帶來可觀的現金流和推動業績。基於經常性的脫毛需求,我們仍然是高度分散行業的主導者。雖然無法避免通貨膨脹,但我們的核心客人仍然非常投入,這表明充滿挑戰的宏觀環境不會改變他們對我們服務的興趣。

  • Our brand continues to attract top talent along with the unwavering demand to develop new locations throughout our significant white space. We believe that over the long term, these competitive advantages will enable us to continue taking market share regardless of the environment. I will now turn the call back over to the operator for questions. Operator?

    我們的品牌繼續吸引頂尖人才,以及在我們重要的白色空間開發新地點的堅定需求。我們相信,從長遠來看,這些競爭優勢將使我們能夠在不受環境影響的情況下繼續佔據市場份額。我現在將把電話轉回接線員詢問問題。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question or comment comes from the line of Jonathan Komp from R.W. Baird.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題或評論來自 R.W. Baird 的 Jonathan Komp。

  • Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst

    Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to just ask a little bit more about the customer behavior you're seeing and how you're reflecting that in the tightened outlook for the year? And more specifically, when I look to the fourth quarter, could you just share how you're thinking about same-store sales for the quarter? Any insight on your expectations to be able to impact the sales trends? And as we look forward into first half of '23, just any thoughts on additional drivers or other initiatives that might be able to help drive sales here?

    我想多問一點有關您所看到的客戶行為以及您如何在今年收緊的前景中反映出來的情況?更具體地說,當我展望第四季度時,您能否分享一下您對本季度同店銷售額的看法?您對能夠影響銷售趨勢的期望有何見解?當我們展望 23 年上半年時,是否有任何關於可能有助於推動這裡銷售的額外驅動因素或其他舉措的想法?

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • Jon, David Willis, good to talk to you. Thank you for the question. When we narrowed our guidance, we really were just factoring in what we saw the transaction trends as we exited the second quarter that we talked about on our last call, we really saw those continue throughout the third quarter and as we're 1 month into the fourth quarter, kind of the same trend, no better, no worse. Not fully recovered to what we saw in Q1 of this year, but fairly steady, and that's coming from our episodic guests, kind of our lower quintile guests that are just spreading their visit frequency out a bit.

    喬恩,大衛威利斯,很高興和你交談。感謝你的提問。當我們縮小我們的指導範圍時,我們真的只是考慮了我們在上次電話會議上談到的第二季度結束時所看到的交易趨勢,我們確實看到這些趨勢在整個第三季度都在持續,因為我們已經進入 1 個月了第四季度,類似的趨勢,沒有好轉,也沒有更壞。沒有完全恢復到我們在今年第一季度看到的情況,但相當穩定,這來自我們的偶發客人,我們的五分之一以下的客人只是稍微分散了他們的訪問頻率。

  • David touched on it. We took a number of actions in the third quarter. The 3 plus 1 wax pass promo, we think, was a successful initiative. The fall 50 that we did in the third quarter in terms of giving 50% off that second service that the guest has not had with us in over a year, the rebooking contest, we had success with that in the third quarter. We're extending that here into the fourth quarter. So we continue to take actions to drive visit frequency and feel overall very good about the health of most of our guest file. David touched on it our top quintile guests, they haven't changed the routine one bit. They represent over half of our system-wide sales. They're coming at the same frequency and candidly, spending a bit more. So we're going to keep an eye on it.

    大衛觸及它。我們在第三季度採取了一些行動。我們認為,3 加 1 蠟通促銷是一項成功的舉措。我們在第三季度所做的秋季 50 為客人一年多來沒有與我們提供的第二次服務提供 50% 的折扣,即重新預訂競賽,我們在第三季度取得了成功。我們將其擴展到第四季度。因此,我們繼續採取措施來提高訪問頻率,並且對我們大多數來賓檔案的健康狀況總體感覺非常好。大衛談到了我們的五分之一客人,他們一點也沒有改變常規。他們占我們全系統銷售額的一半以上。他們以同樣的頻率和坦率地來,花更多的錢。所以我們將密切關注它。

  • In terms of same-store sales comps, when you kind of run the math at the midpoint of our guidance, I think that kind of takes us here to low single digit for the fourth quarter.

    就同店銷售比較而言,當你在我們指導的中點進行數學計算時,我認為這會讓我們在第四季度達到低個位數。

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • That's right. Yes. I mean, Jon, if you think about the revised guidance of approximately 9.5% and what we've achieved thus far year-to-date, keep in mind, Q1 had an easy compare in California, than we saw some pre-COVID recovery in Q2, Q3. But that suggests about 3% -- approximately 3% for Q4 for that approximate 9.5% guidance. Just as a reminder, that's the low single-digit comp transaction decline offset by the pricing actions that we took in the quarter that you'll see that 3%.

    這是正確的。是的。我的意思是,喬恩,如果你考慮修訂後的指導方針約 9.5% 以及我們今年迄今取得的成就,請記住,第一季度在加利福尼亞州進行了輕鬆比較,而不是我們看到了 COVID 前的一些恢復在Q2,Q3。但這表明大約 3%——對於大約 9.5% 的指導,第四季度大約為 3%。提醒一下,這是我們在本季度採取的定價行動所抵消的低個位數補償交易下降,您將看到 3%。

  • Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst

    Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes. Great. And if I could just ask one follow-up, David Berg, I think you mentioned the initial outlook for unit development in 2023, which sounded quite strong. Just wanted to get a little more context to your visibility and confidence to that level, especially just given higher construction costs, higher financing or interest rates for franchisees, just in an uncertain environment. Just curious what gives you confidence at this stage in projecting a pretty solid outlook.

    是的。偉大的。如果我可以問一個後續問題,David Berg,我想你提到了 2023 年單元開發的初步前景,這聽起來很強大。只是想了解更多有關您在該級別的知名度和信心的背景信息,尤其是在不確定的環境中,考慮到更高的建設成本、更高的融資或加盟商的利率。只是好奇是什麼讓你在這個階段有信心預測一個非常穩固的前景。

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Yes, Jon, thanks for the question. Always good to hear from you. We feel great about what we're looking for all solely for the balance of this year, where now this is the second or third time we've been able to raise our new center outlook up to 88 to 90. And really what gives us confidence as we look to 2023, Jon, is the robustness of the pipeline that we have -- that we've built. And we've said this before, but it bears repeating, which is 90-plus percent of those new center commitments are from our current franchisee base. So these are folks that either are well capitalized with an institutional partner or they're just because of the 60% cash-on-cash returns they have in the centers that they're operating, they've got plenty of cash to go forward and continue to grow with us. So we do not see interest rates as any kind of deterrent. The demand is there.

    是的,喬恩,謝謝你的提問。總是很高興收到你的來信。我們對今年餘下時間所尋求的一切感到非常滿意,現在這是我們第二次或第三次將我們的新中心前景提高到 88 到 90。真正給我們帶來的是什麼喬恩,我們展望 2023 年的信心是我們擁有的管道的穩健性——我們已經建立。我們之前已經說過,但值得重申的是,這些新中心承諾的 90% 以上來自我們目前的加盟商基礎。所以這些人要么在機構合作夥伴那裡資本充足,要么只是因為他們在他們運營的中心擁有 60% 的現金回報率,他們有足夠的現金可以繼續前進並繼續與我們一起成長。所以我們不認為利率有任何威懾作用。需求就在那裡。

  • Our construction costs, we've really done a good job in this new center design to get it into that range where franchisees are comfortable and can still have the kinds of returns in the time lines that we've had in the past. So as I stated in my opening comments, we'll hit that 88 to 90 this year, and that will be the -- certainly, we'll do that next year as well.

    我們的建築成本,我們在這個新的中心設計中確實做得很好,以使其進入加盟商感到舒適的範圍,並且仍然可以在我們過去的時間線內獲得各種回報。因此,正如我在開場評論中所說,我們今年將達到 88 到 90,那將是 - 當然,我們明年也會這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question or comment comes from the line of Dana Telsey from the Telsey Group.

    我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Telsey Group 的 Dana Telsey。

  • Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

    Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

  • When you look at this quarter and the exit rate of the second quarter, was there any difference in monthly cadence or also performance in California versus the rest of the country? And then just wanted to touch on the gross margin guide, which is coming in at the upper end from your former guidance and key drivers there and expectations going forward?

    當您查看本季度和第二季度的退出率時,加州與全國其他地區的每月節奏或表現是否存在差異?然後只想談談毛利率指南,這是從你之前的指南和那裡的主要驅動因素以及未來的預期中進入的高端?

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • Dana, this is David. So from California, no material difference from the rest of the network. You may recall, they're still comping off a fairly lower base relative to the other states. So they're going to show transaction trends a little more favorable than the rest of the network, but not material. Do you want to take...

    達娜,這是大衛。因此,來自加利福尼亞,與網絡的其他部分沒有實質性區別。您可能還記得,與其他州相比,他們的基數仍然相當低。因此,他們將顯示比網絡其他部分更有利的交易趨勢,但不是實質性的。你想帶...

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So on the gross margin, Dana, again, hitting in the high end of the range, you've probably have seen in Q3, we're a little bit lighter than what we've achieved in the first couple of quarters. Part of that was the medical supplies agreement that we talked about that came into play closer to Q2. We also have a higher mix of our product sales that occur in Q3. And so Q3 was a little bit pressured in terms of gross margin, but we'll see kind of that rebounding in Q4, closer to the approximately 71.5% and we feel confident in our ability to deliver the approximately 71.5% for the year.

    是的。因此,在毛利率方面,Dana 再次達到了該範圍的高端,你可能已經在第三季度看到了,我們比前幾個季度取得的成就要輕一些。其中一部分是我們談到的醫療用品協議,該協議在臨近第二季度時開始發揮作用。我們在第三季度的產品銷售組合也更高。因此,第三季度的毛利率有點壓力,但我們會在第四季度看到這種反彈,接近約 71.5%,我們對我們今年實現約 71.5% 的能力充滿信心。

  • Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

    Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

  • Got it. And then just lastly, with the value offerings that you've been doing lately, what's the game plan to the value offerings in the fourth quarter frequency or any changes to them?

    知道了。最後,關於你最近一直在做的價值產品,第四季度頻率的價值產品的遊戲計劃是什麼或對它們有什麼改變?

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Dana, it's David. Thanks for the question. I think we looked at all of these promotions and actions that we took in Q3 with the lens, not just a sort of single transaction. We really had a lifeline for each of these promotions. So let me speak specifically to the 3 plus 1 offer that we made at the end of Q3, which was really to go after that value-conscious guest. We were very pleased, as we talked about, with the meaningful uptake we saw in that 3 plus 1 wax pass, 3/4 of the folks that bought that had already had at least 2 services by the end of September. So the timing is right as they use up that 3 plus 1, and you'll recall that there is an expiration date on those. But that falls in line with the 9 plus 3 offering that we've got going on through the balance of the year. And with respect to those guests that bought the 3 plus 1 wax pass, we have a special offer using it, really our CRM to target a special enhanced offer to them to move up to that 9 plus 3 offer. Similarly, with our 50% off that new second service that we offered guests that we've extended into this quarter, we see that also from a lifeline standpoint that it's an opportunity for us to sell a second wax pass to those guests. So as with the 3 plus 1 wax pass purchasers, those folks that took advantage of the 50% off the additional service will also be targeted with a special offer to buy an additional wax pass with some rewards point -- loyalty rewards enhanced for those folks.

    是的。達娜,是大衛。謝謝你的問題。我認為我們用鏡頭審視了我們在第三季度採取的所有這些促銷和行動,而不僅僅是一種單一的交易。我們確實為這些促銷活動中的每一個提供了生命線。因此,讓我具體談談我們在第三季度末提供的 3 加 1 優惠,這實際上是為了滿足那些注重價值的客人。我們非常高興,正如我們所說,我們在 3 加 1 蠟通行證中看到了有意義的吸收,到 9 月底,購買該通行證的人中有 3/4 已經至少獲得了 2 次服務。所以時機是正確的,因為他們用完了 3 加 1,你會記得那些有一個到期日期。但這與我們在今年餘下時間進行的 9 加 3 產品一致。對於那些購買了 3 加 1 蠟通票的客人,我們有一個特別優惠,實際上是我們的 CRM 為他們提供特別的增強優惠,以升級到 9 加 3 優惠。同樣,隨著我們為客人提供的新的第二項服務的 50% 折扣延長到本季度,我們也從生命線的角度來看,這是我們向這些客人出售第二張蠟票的機會。因此,與購買 3 加 1 蠟通行證的購買者一樣,那些利用附加服務 50% 折扣的人也將獲得特別優惠以購買額外的蠟通行證並獲得一些獎勵積分——為這些人提供更高的忠誠度獎勵.

  • Our normal view also saw that we pulled forward our 9 plus 3 offer in Q4. We started that 2 weeks early. We wanted to make sure sort of from a holiday dollar standpoint that we were able to get share of wallet. We've been very pleased with the uptake that we've seen in the first couple of weeks of that earlier promotion. We've got about 30% of those guests that had not purchased a wax pass in the last 18 months, purchased it in the first 2 weeks of the promotion. So we're very pleased with kind of the initial outset and results that we're seeing there.

    我們的正常觀點還看到我們在第四季度提前了 9 加 3 的報價。我們提前兩週開始了。我們想從假日美元的角度確保我們能夠獲得錢包份額。我們對早期促銷的前幾週所看到的接受度感到非常滿意。在過去 18 個月內未購買蠟像通行證的客人中,有大約 30% 在促銷活動的前 2 週內購買了。因此,我們對我們在那裡看到的最初的開始和結果感到非常滿意。

  • We will certainly run our limited time offer in terms of our retail product and really kind of unique product offerings, holiday kind of gift products that will allow our guests to take advantage of things as well. So we feel good about kind of the, again, looking holistically at the promotions that we made in Q3 that are going to help continue to drive business for us in Q4 and beyond.

    我們肯定會在我們的零售產品和真正獨特的產品供應、節日禮品產品方面提供限時優惠,讓我們的客人也能利用這些東西。因此,我們再次從整體上看待我們在第三季度進行的促銷活動,這將有助於在第四季度及以後繼續推動我們的業務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question or comment comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson from Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題或評論來自美國銀行的 Lorraine Hutchinson。

  • Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research

    Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research

  • I wanted to follow up on the question earlier about the same-store sales growth, looking for low single digits in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk to the key drivers to reaccelerate that trend to get back to the high single-digit target next year?

    我想跟進早些時候關於同店銷售增長的問題,尋找第四季度的低個位數。您能否與主要驅動因素交談以重新加速這一趨勢,以在明年回到高個位數目標?

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • It's really going to be the ticket with the wax pass from Lorraine if you think about the size of those tickets and commitments, the 9 plus 3s can get in the neighborhood of $600 ticket. So as our guests redeem those higher-value services, we think that, that's going to help drive the average ticket here in the fourth quarter.

    如果您考慮這些門票的規模和承諾,這真的是洛林的蠟票,9 加 3 的門票價格約為 600 美元。因此,當我們的客人兌換這些更高價值的服務時,我們認為這將有助於推動第四季度這裡的平均票價。

  • Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research

    Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research

  • And then as you look forward, well, maybe let's pivot to the franchisees. What are you hearing from them about the slightly more promotional cadence that you're offering customers? Are you hearing any pushback from your franchisees? What's the reaction been?

    然後當你展望未來時,好吧,也許讓我們轉向特許經營商。您從他們那裡了解到您向客戶提供的促銷節奏稍微多一些?您是否聽到加盟商的反對意見?反應如何?

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Lorraine, it's David. We just -- as I mentioned in my comments, we just came out of our franchisee conference here less than a month ago. And it was the first one we had since prior to COVID. So it was great to get everybody back together. As we mentioned, the 98-plus-percent satisfaction rate. The energy, the enthusiasm for the brand was absolutely palpable and really all left energized after we got out of that. We certainly heard anecdotally about the commitments that folks are making, maybe even getting out of other concepts that they might be in and double downing and investing in European Wax Center.

    是的。洛林,是大衛。我們只是 - 正如我在評論中提到的那樣,不到一個月前我們剛剛結束這裡的加盟商會議。這是我們在 COVID 之前擁有的第一個。所以讓大家重新聚在一起真是太好了。正如我們提到的,98% 以上的滿意率。對品牌的活力和熱情是顯而易見的,在我們擺脫困境之後,一切都充滿了活力。我們當然聽說過人們正在做出的承諾,甚至可能擺脫他們可能參與的其他概念,加倍投資並投資於歐洲蠟像中心。

  • We have a great relationship with our Franchisee Advisory Council, and we have discussions with them regularly about any kind of promotional activity. I'll double click on the

    我們與加盟商諮詢委員會關係密切,我們會定期與他們討論任何類型的促銷活動。我會雙擊

  • (technical difficulty)

    (技術難度)

  • Plus 1. That was incredibly well received by our Franchise Advisory Council and by the network that this was an opportunity for us to go out and help get that cost-conscious guest on a wax pass so that we can then articulate them up to the 9 plus 3 and a special offer that we're giving them is kind of a no-brainer in terms of getting them hooked into that. So we make sure that we always are getting our franchisees to buy and make sure that they understand.

    加 1. 我們的特許經營諮詢委員會和網絡對此非常滿意,這是我們走出去幫助那些注重成本的客人獲得蠟證的機會,這樣我們就可以將他們表達到 9 plus 3 和我們為他們提供的特別優惠在讓他們著迷方面是一種輕而易舉的選擇。所以我們確保我們總是讓我們的加盟商購買並確保他們理解。

  • And one of the most important things, I've said this many times on these calls in any franchising system, we've got to do things that our franchisees know how to do and know how to go execute. And anything that we've run, so a rebooking contest, giving more dollars for referrals, selling wax passes, this is all right in the wheelhouse of the great operational expertise of our franchisees, and that's why I think we've seen such nice results in terms of the levers that we pulled in Q3 and will continue in Q4.

    最重要的事情之一,我在任何特許經營系統的這些電話中都說過很多次,我們必須做我們的加盟商知道如何做並知道如何執行的事情。我們舉辦的任何活動,如重新預訂競賽、為推薦人提供更多資金、銷售蠟票,這些都在我們特許經營商出色的運營專業知識的駕駛室中是正確的,這就是為什麼我認為我們看到瞭如此美好的事情結果是我們在第三季度拉動的槓桿,並將在第四季度繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (technical difficulty)

    (技術難度)

  • John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

    John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

  • Can you talk to -- in this environment, what do you think happens to the maturation curve, right, of new centers, this year's cohort maybe next year. Is the top line ramp a little slower, but is the bottom line ramp better, right? Because if transactions are under pressure, maybe you don't need as much wax specialist labor, right? And that helps the franchisee P&L. Is that -- how do you think about that?

    你能談談——在這種環境下,你認為新中心的成熟曲線會發生什麼,對吧,今年的隊列可能是明年。頂線斜坡是不是有點慢,但底線斜坡更好,對吧?因為如果交易面臨壓力,也許您不需要那麼多的蠟專家勞動力,對吧?這有助於加盟商損益。那是——你怎麼看?

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • John, we've really seen the last couple of years cohorts, including new centers opened this year, continue to ramp a bit ahead of the historical maturation curve. So I don't know that I would say that it's worse in the early years. We continue to be very pleased with how that -- how these centers are ramping.

    約翰,我們真的看到過去幾年的隊列,包括今年開設的新中心,繼續略微領先於歷史成熟曲線。所以我不知道我會說早些年更糟。我們仍然對這些中心的發展方式感到非常滿意。

  • As David had mentioned, maybe not mentioned in our prepared remarks, we're in the very early innings. All of these fantastic new center openings have really come from our historical franchisees. We're in the very, very early innings of new center openings coming from the institutional capital-backed operators. They kind of found entry points over the last couple of years. We negotiated multiunit development agreements with them, and they're just at the early stages of starting to reopen. So not only does that drive confidence in our ability to deliver the [NCO] targets that we've committed to you guys, but the performance -- operational performance of those centers were quite confident they will continue to ramp positively.

    正如 David 提到的,我們準備好的發言中可能沒有提到,我們處於非常早期的階段。所有這些夢幻般的新中心開業都真正來自我們的歷史特許經營商。我們正處於機構資本支持的運營商開設新中心的非常、非常早期的階段。他們在過去幾年中找到了切入點。我們與他們協商了多單元開發協議,他們才剛剛開始重新開放。因此,這不僅讓我們對實現我們向你們承諾的 [NCO] 目標的能力充滿信心,而且對這些中心的績效——運營績效充滿信心,他們將繼續積極增長。

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • And in terms of -- you touched on this, John. But in terms of profitability of our franchisees, we've also seen really healthy results throughout this year, ahead of 2019 results as well. So while we've seen the maintenance of the overall maturation curve and top line, we've also seen an improving bottom line from the 4-wall standpoint.

    就——你談到了這一點,約翰。但就我們特許經營商的盈利能力而言,我們在今年全年也看到了非常健康的結果,也超過了 2019 年的結果。因此,雖然我們看到了整體成熟曲線和頂線的維持,但從 4 牆的角度來看,我們也看到了底線的改善。

  • John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

    John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

  • And how do you guys think about there's a balance densification drives network effect, but it also potentially increases cannibalization. So how do you look at the balance of that, again, in a maybe a slower demand environment? And do you think -- how much do you think cannibalization ramps up? I don't know if you've quantified it lately, but how much that increases right over the next year or 2?

    你們如何看待平衡緻密化驅動網絡效應,但它也可能增加蠶食。那麼,在需求可能放緩的環境中,你又如何看待這兩者之間的平衡呢?你認為 - 你認為自相殘殺會增加多少?我不知道您最近是否對其進行了量化,但明年或兩年內會增加多少?

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • Well, John, I would say that when we model our white space, both from a top-down perspective, from the demographics and then a DMA trade area by trade area going back up, we had modeled kind of 5% to 10% cannibalization rates. That's what's driving us ultimately to our target of 3,000.

    好吧,約翰,我想說的是,當我們從自上而下的角度對我們的空白區域進行建模時,從人口統計數據,然後是逐個貿易區域向上回溯的 DMA 貿易區域,我們模擬了 5% 到 10% 的蠶食費率。這就是促使我們最終實現 3,000 人目標的原因。

  • Now what I would tell you is, we've seen some franchisees that want to strategically identify a market on an accelerated basis, they're willing to cannibalize their own centers a bit more than that. But we're still comfortable that, that 5% to 10%. We haven't seen any significant change over the last, call it, 2 to 3 quarters in terms of cannibalization rates where our franchisees are identifying markets.

    現在我要告訴你的是,我們已經看到一些特許經營商想要在加速的基礎上戰略性地確定一個市場,他們更願意蠶食自己的中心。但我們仍然對 5% 到 10% 感到滿意。在我們的特許經營商確定市場的蠶食率方面,我們沒有看到過去 2 到 3 個季度的任何重大變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question or comment comes from the line of Kelly Crago from Citi.

    我們的下一個問題或評論來自花旗的 Kelly Crago。

  • Kelly Crago - VP

    Kelly Crago - VP

  • Just wanted to follow up on an earlier question around the first half of '23 from a comp perspective. You're still planning transactions down low singles. I think you might start to lap the pricing increases. So is it fair to assume that the comps would be potentially negative in the first half of next year? Or am I not thinking about that one, right? And then I just have one follow-up.

    只是想從 comp 的角度跟進 23 年上半年左右的早期問題。您仍在計劃低單交易。我認為您可能會開始接受價格上漲。那麼假設 comps 在明年上半年可能為負是否公平?或者我沒有考慮那個,對吧?然後我只有一個跟進。

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • Yes, good question, Kelly. So you're right that we will be lapping, but there's also the maturation curve and the continued growth of our centers. And so how I would frame it up is you would see about 300 basis points to 400 basis points pressure on our overall comp. And so thinking through it, obviously, it's too early to guide, we'll kind of learn more and give that holistic perspective. But as you look at the trends, I would think through 300 basis points to 400 basis points of pressure on the overall comp.

    是的,問得好,凱利。所以你是對的,我們會打磨,但也有成熟曲線和我們中心的持續增長。所以我如何構建它是你會看到我們的整體補償大約 300 個基點到 400 個基點的壓力。所以仔細想想,顯然,現在指導還為時過早,我們會了解更多並給出整體觀點。但是當你看趨勢時,我會考慮通過 300 個基點到 400 個基點對整體競爭的壓力。

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Kelly, I would just add, a lever that we've had in our toolkit is taking price. We've taken price each of the last couple of years. As of right now, we don't have a set target date for taking price across the network. When we did a postmortem analysis of the price we took earlier this year, we found that it was quite effective with very nominal attrition. Now there's a handful of franchisees that took multiple price increases this year, and we did see them have some ticket attrition. So we're going to be very mindful in terms of how we think about price. We're going to be mindful of our cost structure, 4-wall margins as we look at this holistically. But as of right now, for Amir's comments, we don't have baked into first half of next year and assume price increase.

    凱利,我只想補充一點,我們工具包中的一個槓桿正在定價。在過去的幾年裡,我們每年都採取價格。截至目前,我們還沒有設定通過網絡定價的目標日期。當我們對今年早些時候採用的價格進行事後分析時,我們發現它非常有效,而且損耗非常小。現在有少數特許經營商今年多次提價,我們確實看到他們有一些門票流失。因此,我們將非常注意我們如何看待價格。當我們從整體上看這個問題時,我們將注意我們的成本結構、4 壁利潤率。但截至目前,對於阿米爾的評論,我們還沒有考慮到明年上半年並假設價格上漲。

  • Kelly Crago - VP

    Kelly Crago - VP

  • Got it. And just a follow-up on the last, the 300 basis points to 400 basis points of pressure on the overall comp, is that relative to the high single-digit comp guidance that's out there longer term?

    知道了。只是對最後一個跟進,整體 comp 的 300 個基點到 400 個基點的壓力,這是相對於長期的高個位數 comp 指導嗎?

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • That's right. That's exactly right. Yes.

    這是正確的。這是完全正確的。是的。

  • Kelly Crago - VP

    Kelly Crago - VP

  • Got it. And I guess -- and then the other point on the price increases, I mean I'm just curious what you think is that any impact on transactions this year, especially given the inflationary environment overall? Would that make you think differently about price increases given the weakening macro environment? And just lastly, on that point, since you've had to get a little bit more promotional to drive traffic, I mean, does that have any impact on your margins? Or is it sort of borne by the franchisees?

    知道了。我想——然後是關於價格上漲的另一點,我的意思是我很好奇你認為這對今年的交易有什麼影響,尤其是考慮到整體通脹環境?鑑於宏觀環境疲軟,這會讓您對價格上漲有不同的看法嗎?最後,在這一點上,既然你不得不做更多的促銷來增加流量,我的意思是,這對你的利潤有影響嗎?還是由加盟商承擔?

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • Sure. So in terms of the pricing, when we did our evaluation of that, we found that for those franchisees that took the pricing that we recommended, those had nominal impact on tickets. I want to make sure I'm clear. There are a handful of franchisees that either took more price than what we recommended or to multiple price increases throughout the first half of the year. Those few centers did have an impact on ticket attrition. So that told us we had it about right or we felt we had it about right in the first quarter, but we are mindful of taking more price against the backdrop of the inflation that everyone is seeing.

    當然。因此,就定價而言,當我們對此進行評估時,我們發現對於那些採用我們建議的定價的加盟商,這些對門票產生了名義上的影響。我想確保我清楚。有少數加盟商的價格高於我們的建議,或者在整個上半年多次提價。那幾個中心確實對門票流失產生了影響。所以這告訴我們我們做對了,或者我們覺得我們在第一季度做對了,但我們注意在每個人都看到的通貨膨脹的背景下採取更多的價格。

  • And in terms of the promotion and the impact on the 4 wall, and as you've heard kind of David Berg mentioned, a lot of the promotions are focused on driving long-term value for the guest. And so if you think about the 3 plus 1 wax pass, they're running the 9 plus 3 us 2 weeks earlier. And so we see that, although it's a very short-term slight impact to the 4-wall, we see that as an overall positive impact to transactions. And then some of the incentives that we have run have been supported by the corporate to drive engagement at the center level around rebooking some of our services per ticket contest. And so it's kind of a mixture of both, but I would say all of it is focused on driving long-term value for the guests.

    就促銷和對 4 號牆的影響而言,正如您聽過 David Berg 提到的那樣,很多促銷都專注於為客人帶來長期價值。因此,如果您考慮 3 加 1 蠟通行證,他們會在 2 週前運行 9 加 3 我們。因此我們看到,儘管這對 4 牆的影響非常短期,但我們認為這是對交易的整體積極影響。然後,我們已經運行的一些激勵措施得到了公司的支持,以推動中心層面的參與,圍繞每場門票比賽重新預訂我們的一些服務。所以這是兩者的結合,但我想說所有這些都集中在為客人帶來長期價值上。

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Maybe one final point I would make, we now have the data to better measure and monitor performance of these promotions. We're not necessarily running more promotions than we've run historically. We have better data to measure impact and pilot different options. So we're probably talking about it more, but I don't want you to get the impression that we're running more promotions in what the brand has historically run.

    也許我要說的最後一點是,我們現在有數據可以更好地衡量和監控這些促銷活動的績效。我們不一定會舉辦比以往更多的促銷活動。我們有更好的數據來衡量影響和試驗不同的選擇。所以我們可能會更多地談論它,但我不想讓你覺得我們在品牌歷史上進行過更多的促銷活動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Simeon Gutman。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • I missed a little bit at the beginning, so pardon this, if it's repetitive. I think you said transaction run rate quarter-to-date is the same as Q3, but I don't think you gave like any other like total comp quarter to date. I guess the question is, should that be consistent with the comp? And then the implied Q4, are you building in any change in how the consumer is feeling?

    一開始我漏掉了一點,所以請原諒,如果它是重複的。我認為你說的季度至今的交易運行率與第三季度相同,但我認為你沒有像其他任何人一樣提供迄今為止的總補償季度。我想問題是,這應該與比賽一致嗎?然後隱含的 Q4,您是否正在改變消費者的感受?

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • Yes. So in terms of Q4, we're not building any -- we're basically looking at that the run rate that we have seen and factoring the same run rate through the end of the quarter. As you know, we have our 9 plus 3 promotion. And so Q4 is a relatively important quarter for us and a big quarter for us. And the results that we've seen in the first 2 weeks of launching the 9 plus 3 has been encouraging. The transactions that we talked about early on, Simeon, was being down low single digits in terms of overall transaction comp versus an expectation of low single-digit growth. Overall, transactions is still growing, just in terms of comp, we are down.

    是的。因此,就第四季度而言,我們沒有建立任何東西——我們基本上是在查看我們所看到的運行率,並在本季度末考慮相同的運行率。如您所知,我們有 9 加 3 促銷活動。因此,第四季度對我們來說是一個相對重要的季度,也是一個重要的季度。我們在推出 9 加 3 的前兩週看到的結果令人鼓舞。我們早些時候談到的交易,西蒙,在整體交易補償方面下降了低個位數,而預期是低個位數增長。總體而言,交易仍在增長,就補償而言,我們處於下降狀態。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • Okay. The second one is around interest rate environment, I guess, franchisee, appetite, new leads, et cetera. I guess, Dave, you've been in this environment for both Davids actually. So curious, we get a lot of questions on it. We don't have to think about it. Does this mean -- does it end up tilting towards some of the larger well capitalized? Does it mean the diversification plans have to pause? How should we think about it?

    好的。第二個是圍繞利率環境,我猜,加盟商,胃口,新線索等等。我想,戴夫,你實際上已經為兩個戴維斯處於這種環境中。很好奇,我們收到了很多關於它的問題。我們不必考慮它。這是否意味著——它最終會傾向於一些規模更大、資本充足的公司嗎?這是否意味著多元化計劃必須暫停?我們應該如何思考呢?

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Simeon, I think the short answer is there an impact of the rising interest rates in our franchisees and their desire to grow. The short answer is, no. And I think if you dissect it in the 2 groups, the folks that are self-funded are great franchisee operators. They're utilizing the cash that they're generating from their mature centers to reinvest. And we talked about it before that the bulk of our growth in 2022 are from those folks. It's not from the institutionally-backed franchisees. So we'll see that -- we'll start to see the benefit of that to John's question earlier, that's part of what gives us that confidence in 2023 are those multiyear, multiunit commitments that we have. And with respect to those franchisees that have taken on an institutional capital partner, they're well capitalized. They're not overlevering these units. Again, Simeon, this is a $350,000 build out. So the capital requirements are not that great. So we don't see it from our franchisees. We don't see it in terms of the pipeline growth that we've experienced nor in terms of the excitement about getting more units with our current franchisee group that, again, 90-plus percent of that growth is coming from those folks.

    是的。 Simeon,我認為簡短的回答是我們的特許經營商利率上升及其增長願望會產生影響。最簡潔的答案是不。而且我認為,如果您將其分為兩組,那麼自籌資金的人都是很棒的特許經營商。他們正在利用從成熟中心產生的現金進行再投資。我們之前談到過,我們 2022 年的大部分增長都來自這些人。它不是來自機構支持的特許經營商。所以我們會看到——我們將開始看到約翰早些時候提出的問題的好處,這是讓我們對 2023 年充滿信心的部分原因是我們擁有的那些多年、多單位的承諾。對於那些聘請了機構資本合作夥伴的特許經營商,他們的資本充足。他們並沒有過度利用這些單位。同樣,Simeon,這是一個 350,000 美元的擴建項目。所以資本要求不是那麼高。所以我們從我們的加盟商那裡看不到它。我們沒有看到我們經歷過的管道增長,也沒有看到我們目前的特許經營商群體獲得更多單位的興奮,同樣,90% 以上的增長來自這些人。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question or comment comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli from Truist.

    我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Truist 的 Scot Ciccarelli。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • So I guess I'm a bit confused on the promotional activity comments because I guess kind of the way you guys were talking about it, it did seem like you were increasing promotional activity, but then you just said there really isn't a difference in cadence. Can you help clarify specifically what you mean on that?

    所以我想我對促銷活動的評論有點困惑,因為我猜你們談論它的方式有點像,看起來你們確實在增加促銷活動,但後來你只是說真的沒有什麼區別在節奏中。你能具體說明一下你的意思嗎?

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Scot, sorry, this is David. I may have been confusing on that point. We are not -- the question was raised, are we running incremental promotions? Is it margin dilutive, either to us or to our franchisees? In terms of the quantity and the types of promotions are very consistent with what we've run historically. We're tailoring specific promotions and we're talking about them more because we have better data to measure them. So I just didn't want there to be the impression that everything is on sale all the time. These are all promotional activities that our franchisees are quite familiar with and are good at executing.

    斯科特,對不起,我是大衛。我可能在這一點上感到困惑。我們不是——有人提出了這個問題,我們是否在進行增量促銷?對我們或我們的特許經營商來說,它是否會稀釋利潤?在促銷活動的數量和類型方面,與我們以往開展的活動非常一致。我們正在定制特定的促銷活動,我們正在更多地談論它們,因為我們有更好的數據來衡量它們。所以我只是不想給人留下什麼東西一直都在打折的印象。這些都是我們的加盟商非常熟悉並且擅長執行的促銷活動。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • Got it. And so when you talk about transaction activity really hasn't changed from that kind of negative low single-digit cadence that you had over the last several months. We shouldn't assume that's despite, let's call it, higher promotional activity, it's just kind of the same run rate, both on transactions as well as promos.

    知道了。因此,當你談論交易活動時,你在過去幾個月中遇到的那種負低個位數節奏確實沒有改變。我們不應該假設儘管我們稱之為更高的促銷活動,但它只是一種相同的運行率,無論是在交易上還是在促銷上。

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Yes. What we are trying to do are run those promotions that are going to drive guests into centers, give more share of wallet ultimately to drive guest visit frequency. We probably spend more time talking about the wax pass and the positive halo effect of getting guests on a wax pass, but every one of our promotions is really intended to drive first new guests into the center, maximize share of wallet there, and then best case, get them on a regular routine so that we get the -- our franchisees get the benefit of that frequency.

    是的。我們正在努力做的是開展那些將吸引客人進入中心的促銷活動,最終提供更多的錢包份額以提高客人的訪問頻率。我們可能會花更多時間談論蠟證和讓客人獲得蠟證的積極光環效應,但我們的每一項促銷活動實際上都是為了吸引第一批新客人進入中心,最大化那裡的錢包份額,然後最好在這種情況下,讓他們定期進行,這樣我們就可以獲得 - 我們的特許經營商可以從這種頻率中獲益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question or comment comes from the line of Korinne Wolfmeyer from PSC.

    我們的下一個問題或評論來自 PSC 的 Korinne Wolfmeyer。

  • Korinne N. Wolfmeyer - Research Analyst

    Korinne N. Wolfmeyer - Research Analyst

  • Quickly on what you're seeing on the retail side. Can you just provide a little perspective on how that side of the business has been performing and what you've been doing promotion-wise? I mean it does seem like some of the promotional activity has been increased there a bit, but can you just provide a perspective on what the normal promotional activity for those retail products?

    快速了解您在零售方面看到的情況。您能否就業務的這一方面的表現以及您在促銷方面所做的工作提供一些看法?我的意思是,那裡的一些促銷活動似乎確實增加了一點,但你能否提供一個觀點,說明這些零售產品的正常促銷活動是什麼?

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • Sure, Korinne. We -- most recent promotion we ran on retail was to buy more, save more promotion. And we ran -- I think we ran one of those in the first quarter last year. We ran at least one of those last year in 2021. And we've been pleased with the results. Retail attach rates have kind of been in that 13% to 15% range. So they've been reasonably consistent. The LTOs that we're running here in the fourth quarter are really geared towards holiday products. So we've been quite pleased overall with the results from our recent retail promotions.

    當然,科琳娜。我們 - 我們最近進行的零售促銷活動是購買更多,節省更多促銷活動。我們跑了——我想我們在去年第一季度跑了其中一個。我們在 2021 年至少運行了其中一個。我們對結果感到滿意。零售附加率一直在 13% 到 15% 的範圍內。所以他們一直相當一致。我們在第四季度在這裡運行的 LTO 實際上是針對假日產品的。因此,我們對最近的零售促銷活動的結果總體上非常滿意。

  • Korinne N. Wolfmeyer - Research Analyst

    Korinne N. Wolfmeyer - Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then can you just touch on what you're seeing in terms of like average ticket price? I mean, I know you gave that price, but how do you see that developing over the next couple of quarters or even years? Is there a chance or opportunity to start pushing some of these higher cost services on your existing customers to drive that average ticket price up? Just how are you thinking about that?

    知道了。然後你能談談你所看到的平均票價嗎?我的意思是,我知道你給出了那個價格,但你如何看待未來幾個季度甚至幾年的發展?是否有機會或機會開始向現有客戶推銷其中一些成本較高的服務,以提高平均票價?你是怎麼想的?

  • David L. Willis - CFO & COO

    David L. Willis - CFO & COO

  • Yes. So in terms of the average kind of order value, we see that around $55 to $56 and that is up, as you would expect, with the price increase. So it's up about 5.6% compared to last year. There's always kind of initiatives to suggest and upsell at the center by the GSAs. We also have another driver of taking up that lever, which is services per ticket. We ran a contest around that in Q3, and we saw a slight increase there as well. And so there are promotions and, let's call it, initiatives around that for GSA to recommend and drive that. We expect that to normalize, absent any price increase next year.

    是的。因此,就平均訂單價值而言,我們看到大約在 55 美元到 56 美元之間,正如您所期望的那樣,隨著價格上漲。因此,與去年相比增長了約 5.6%。 GSA 總是在中心提出建議和追加銷售的舉措。我們還有另一個推動該槓桿的驅動因素,即每張票的服務。我們在第 3 季度圍繞該問題開展了一場比賽,我們也看到了那裡的小幅增長。因此,有促銷活動,讓我們稱之為圍繞 GSA 推薦和推動的舉措。我們預計在明年沒有任何價格上漲的情況下,這種情況會正常化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I'm showing no additional questions in the queue at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing comments.

    我目前沒有在隊列中顯示其他問題。我想將會議轉回管理層徵求任何結束意見。

  • David P. Berg - CEO & Director

    David P. Berg - CEO & Director

  • Thank you. And thanks, everybody, for taking time on the call today. We certainly look forward to speaking with you in the days and weeks to come and us continuing to deliver on our long-term growth objectives. So thank you all very much for joining us.

    謝謝你。感謝大家今天抽出時間參加電話會議。我們當然期待在未來幾天和幾週內與您交談,我們將繼續實現我們的長期增長目標。非常感謝大家加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

    女士們,先生們,感謝你們參加今天的會議。程序到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。每個人,祝你有美好的一天。