East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the East West Bancorp's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加東西銀行2018年第四季及全年業績電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Julianna Balicka, Director of Strategy and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給策略與企業發展總監朱莉安娜·巴利卡 (Julianna Balicka) 主持。請繼續。

Thank you, Allison. Good morning, and thank you, everyone, for joining us to review the financial results of East West Bancorp for the fourth quarter of 2018. With me on this conference call today are Dominic Ng, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Irene Oh, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，艾莉森。早安，感謝各位參加本次會議，共同回顧東西銀行2018年第四季的財務表現。今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Dominic Ng，以及我們的財務長 Irene Oh。

We would like to caution you that, during the course of the call, management may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding events or future financial performance of the company within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements may differ materially from the actual results due to a number of risks and uncertainties. For a more detailed description of risk factors that could affect the company's operating results, please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017.

我們想提醒您，在電話會議期間，管理層可能會根據 1995 年證券訴訟改革法案安全港條款的規定，對公司未來的事件或財務表現做出預測或其他前瞻性陳述。由於存在許多風險和不確定因素，這些前瞻性陳述可能與實際結果有重大差異。有關可能影響公司經營業績的風險因素的更詳細說明，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括截至 2017 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告。

In addition, some of the numbers referenced on this call pertain to adjusted numbers. Please refer to our fourth quarter earnings release for the reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，本次通話中提到的一些數字是調整後的數字。有關 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整情況，請參閱我們的第四季財報。

During the course of this call, we will be referencing a slide deck that is available as part of the webcast and on the Investor Relations site. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will also be available in replay format on our Investor Relations website.

在本次電話會議中，我們將參考一份投影片，該投影片可在網路直播和投資者關係網站上取得。再次提醒，今天的電話會議正在錄音，並將在我們的投資者關係網站上提供回放。

I will now turn the call over to Dominic.

現在我將把電話交給多明尼克。

Thank you, Julianna. Good morning. Thank you, everyone, for joining us for our fourth quarter 2018 earnings call. I will begin our discussion with a summary of results on Slide 3.

謝謝你，朱莉安娜。早安.感謝各位參加我們2018年第四季財報電話會議。我將先總結投影片 3 上的結果，以此作為我們討論的開始。

This morning, we reported full year 2018 net income of $704 million or $4.81 per share, marking the ninth consecutive year that East West has achieved record earnings. Full year net income and diluted earnings per share both grew by 39% from 2017.

今天上午，我們公佈了 2018 年全年淨收入為 7.04 億美元，即每股 4.81 美元，這是 East West 連續第九年實現創紀錄的盈利。2017 年全年淨利和稀釋後每股收益均成長 39%。

Our record earnings in 2018 were driven by robust year-over-year loan growth, strong net interest income growth, expanding net interest margin, controlled expense growth and stable asset quality. This was achievable because of the diligent efforts of our 3,150 associates. And I would like to thank every one of them for contributing to the success of the company.

2018 年我們創紀錄的收益得益於強勁的年比貸款成長、強勁的淨利息收入成長、不斷擴大的淨利差、可控的費用成長和穩定的資產品質。這要歸功於我們3150名員工的努力。我還要感謝他們每一個人，感謝他們為公司的成功所做的貢獻。

For the fourth quarter of 2018, we reported net earnings of $173 million or $1.18 per share, up 104% year-over-year from $85 million or $0.58 per share and up from last quarter's earnings of $171 million or $1.17 per share.

2018 年第四季，我們公佈淨利潤為 1.73 億美元，即每股 1.18 美元，較上年同期的 8,500 萬美元（每股 0.58 美元）成長 104%，也高於上一季的 1.71 億美元（每股 1.17 美元）。

Quarter-over-quarter, our net interest income grew by 6%, reaching a record $369 million in the fourth quarter, and our net interest margin expanded to 3.79% for the fourth quarter. Our nonperforming assets decreased to $93 million or just 0.23% of total assets as of December 31, 2018, and quarterly net charge-offs were 20 basis point of average loans, similar to the year-ago quarter.

與上一季相比，我們的淨利息收入成長了 6%，在第四季度達到創紀錄的 3.69 億美元，我們的淨利差在第四季度擴大到 3.79%。截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日，我們的不良資產減少至 9,300 萬美元，僅佔總資產的 0.23%；季度淨沖銷額為平均貸款額的 20 個基點，與去年同期相似。

Now turning to Slide 4. You can see that our fourth quarter return on assets was 1.69%, return on equity was 15.8% and return on tangible equity was 18%. Our profitability ratios are consistently attractive. Our 5-quarter range for operating ROA has been 1.35% to 1.84%. Our ROE has been 13% to 17%. And tangible ROE has been 15.1% to 19.7%.

現在來看第 4 張投影片。您可以看到，我們第四季的資產報酬率為 1.69%，權益報酬率為 15.8%，有形權益報酬率為 18%。我們的獲利能力指標一直都很有吸引力。我們過去五個季度的營運 ROA 範圍為 1.35% 至 1.84%。我們的淨資產收益率在 13% 到 17% 之間。有形淨資產收益率在 15.1% 至 19.7% 之間。

Looking towards 2019 and beyond, I am excited about the opportunity for East West to win new business and deepen our existing client relationships. With our presence in the United States and Greater China, we have built cross-border banking expertise that differentiates us from other banks. Despite the decline in Chinese exports and Chinese direct investment to the United States, at East West, we are actively assisting our current and prospective clients and finding opportunities for growth.

展望 2019 年及以後，我對 East West 有機會贏得新業務並加深與現有客戶的關係感到興奮。憑藉我們在美國和大中華區的業務佈局，我們累積了跨境銀行業務的專業知識，這使我們與其他銀行區分開來。儘管中國對美出口和直接投資有所下降，但東西方公司仍在積極協助現有客戶和潛在客戶，尋找成長機會。

Our bankers help our clients navigate the evolving geopolitical environment by providing them with expert up-to-date knowledge and understanding essential to conducting business in both markets and matching East West products and services to meet each client's unique cross-border needs.

我們的銀行家透過提供在兩個市場開展業務所需的最新專業知識和理解，幫助客戶應對不斷變化的地緣政治環境，並將東西方產品和服務相匹配，以滿足每位客戶獨特的跨境需求。

Although some of our wholesale trade clients have scaled back their activities, on the other hand, others are taking advantage of the disruption to gain market share. Overall, our wholesale trade portfolio is up 7% year-over-year. The path to cross-border success for East West are multifaceted, and we are comfortable that our differentiating position will serve us well in supporting the continued profitable growth of our well-diversified business.

雖然我們的一些批發貿易客戶已經縮減了業務規模，但另一方面，有些客戶正在利用這種混亂來獲取市場份額。總體而言，我們的批發貿易組合年增 7%。東西方實現跨國成功的道路是多方面的，我們相信，我們獨特的市場地位將有助於我們更好地支持多元化業務的持續獲利成長。

Our outlook for 2019 is positive, and we continue to invest in our business. In 2018, we invested in enhancing our cross-border team and capabilities and in upgrading our cash management platform. And in 2019, we will continue to make investments in technology to improve our fee-based income capabilities, particularly in foreign exchange and cross-border payments. And as we have mentioned previously, another ongoing initiative is building a digital consumer banking platform tailored to the needs of our consumer client base.

我們對 2019 年的前景持樂觀態度，並將繼續投資於我們的業務。2018年，我們投資加強了跨境團隊和能力，並升級了現金管理平台。2019年，我們將繼續投資技術，以提高我們基於手續費的收入能力，尤其是在外匯和跨境支付方面。正如我們之前提到的，另一個正在進行的計劃是建立一個數位消費者銀行平台，以滿足我們消費者客戶群的需求。

Now moving on to a discussion on this quarter's loan and deposit growth on Slide #5 and Slide #6. As of December 31, 2018, total loans reached a record $32.4 billion, growing by $1.2 billion or 15% linked quarter annualized from September 30, 2018, and growing by 11% year-over-year. In the fourth quarter, average loans of $31.5 billion grew by 13% linked quarter annualized.

接下來，我們將討論本季貸款和存款成長情況，請參閱投影片 5 和投影片 6。截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日，貸款總額達到創紀錄的 324 億美元，與 2018 年 9 月 30 日相比，季增 12 億美元，年化成長率為 15%，年成長 11%。第四季度，平均貸款額為 315 億美元，季減 13%。

Loan growth in the fourth quarter was broad based across our lending portfolio. Our strongest quarter-over-quarter growth in average balances was in commercial and industrial loans, which were up by $427 million or 15% annualized followed by single-family mortgage, which were up by $359 million or 26% annualized. Our CRE loans increased by $295 million or 10% annualized. Within our commercial lending, this quarter, we saw strong performance in our private equity and entertainment portfolios.

第四季貸款成長遍及我們所有貸款組合。平均餘額環比成長最強勁的是商業和工業貸款，成長了 4.27 億美元，年化成長率為 15%；其次是單戶住宅抵押貸款，成長了 3.59 億美元，年化成長率為 26%。我們的商業房地產貸款增加了 2.95 億美元，年化成長率為 10%。本季度，我們在商業貸款領域，私募股權和娛樂投資組合表現強勁。

On Slide 6, you can see that total deposits grew to a record $35.4 billion as of December 31, 2018, an increase of $1.8 billion or 21% annualized from September 30, 2018, and up by $3.2 billion or 10% year-over-year. Our fourth quarter average deposit of $35 billion also grew by 21% linked quarter annualized.

從第 6 張投影片可以看出，截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日，存款總額成長至創紀錄的 354 億美元，比 2018 年 9 月 30 日增加了 18 億美元，年化成長率為 21%，年成長 32 億美元，年化成長率為 10%。我們第四季的平均存款額為 350 億美元，環比年化成長 21%。

By category, on an average basis, quarter-over-quarter growth was led by DDA, up by $808 million or 30% annualized, followed by money market accounts up by $567 million or 30% annualized and certificate of deposit, up by $506 million or 24% annualized. We tend to experience seasonally strong demand deposit growth in the fourth quarter and anticipate slow growth rate in the first half of the year.

按類別平均而言，季度環比成長以活期存款帳戶（DDA）領先，成長 8.08 億美元，年化成長率達 30%；其次是貨幣市場帳戶，成長 5.67 億美元，年化成長率達 30%；再次是定期存款，成長 5.06 億美元，年化成長率達 24%。我們通常會在第四季經歷季節性的強勁活期存款成長，並預計今年上半年成長速度將較為緩慢。

And now I will turn the call over to Irene for a more detailed discussion of our income statement and outlook.

現在我將把電話交給艾琳，讓她更詳細地討論我們的損益表和前景展望。

Thank you, Dominic. On Page 7, we have a slide that shows the summary income statement, a snapshot of the key items, including tax-related items. I'll skip the summary and dive right into the details on Slide 8.

謝謝你，多米尼克。第 7 頁有一張投影片，顯示了損益總表，其中列出了關鍵項目，包括與稅務相關的項目。我將跳過總結部分，直接進入第 8 張投影片的細節部分。

Fourth quarter net interest income of $367 million (sic) [$369 million] increased by 6% linked quarter driven by a combination of expanding loan yields, average loan growth and an increase in interest-bearing cash and cash equivalents, partially offset by the increased deposit expense. It was a record quarter of net interest income for East West. Year-over-year, our net interest income grew by 16%.

第四季淨利息收入為 3.67 億美元（原文如此）[3.69 億美元]，季增 6%，主要得益於貸款收益率擴大、平均貸款成長以及計息現金和現金等價物增加，但部分被存款支出增加所抵銷。這是東西方銀行淨利息收入創紀錄的一個季度。與上年同期相比，我們的淨利息收入增加了16%。

GAAP net interest margin of 3.79% increased by 3 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 22 basis points year-over-year. And excluding the impact of accretion, adjusted net interest margin of 3.73% was up by 1 basis point from the previous quarter and up by 24 basis points year-over-year.

GAAP淨利差為3.79%，季增3個基點，較去年同期成長22個基點。剔除增值的影響，調整後的淨利差為 3.73%，比上一季上升 1 個基點，比上年同期上升 24 個基點。

We had an adjustment to amortization of certain IO strips, which decreased interest income by $1.4 million in the quarter and decreased NIM by 1 basis point. Without this item, our fourth quarter GAAP NIM would have been 3.80% and the adjusted NIM would have been 3.74%.

我們對某些 IO 剝離的攤銷進行了調整，導致本季利息收入減少了 140 萬美元，淨利差下降了 1 個基點。除去該項目，我們第四季 GAAP 淨利差為 3.80%，調整後的淨利差為 3.74%。

Excluding that item, the drivers of a 3 basis point expansion to the GAAP margin for the fourth quarter are as follows: a 15 basis point increase stemming from higher loan yields, which reflected upward repricing of existing loans as well as higher yield on new loans across our portfolios; a 2 basis point increase due to ASC 310-30 discount accretion income; a 1 basis point increase from higher yields on other earning assets, partially offset by a 12 basis point decrease from higher rates paid on deposits.

除此項外，第四季度 GAAP 利潤率擴大 3 個基點的驅動因素如下：貸款收益率上升導致利潤率上升 15 個基點，這反映了現有貸款的重新定價以及我們投資組合中新貸款收益率的上升；ASC 310-30 折價存款收入導致利潤率上升 2 個基利率；其他資產上漲

In addition, balance sheet mix change decreased the NIM by 3 basis points. Loan growth was more back-end loaded in the fourth quarter, whereas deposit growth was evenly distributed throughout the quarter, which accounted for the elevated average quarterly balances in the lower-yielding interest-bearing cash and cash equivalents.

此外，資產負債表結構的變動使淨利差下降了 3 個基點。第四季貸款成長主要集中在後半段，而存款成長則均勻分佈在整個季度，這導致了收益率較低的計息現金及現金等價物季度平均餘額偏高。

I would like to point out that the additional liquidity is also the main driver of variance to NIM relative to our expectation as of the end of last quarter. We had initially anticipated a fourth quarter decline in cash and cash equivalents and, thus, more NIM expansion but strong deposit growth, including seasonal growth of demand deposits, came in above our expectations. For 2019, we expect a modestly expanding net interest margin for the full year even with the current expectation for no increases to the prime rate.

我想指出，額外的流動性也是導致淨利差與我們上季末的預期有差異的主要驅動因素。我們最初預期第四季現金及現金等價物將下降，因此淨利差將進一步擴大，但強勁的存款成長（包括活期存款的季節性成長）超出了我們的預期。2019 年，即使目前預期基準利率不會上調，我們也預期全年淨利差將小幅擴大。

As of December 31, the end of period cost of our total deposits was 95 basis points compared to 83 basis points as of September 30, and end of period cost of our interest-bearing deposits was 1.4% compared to 1.22% as of September 30.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們總存款的期末成本為 95 個基點，而截至 9 月 30 日為 83 個基點；我們計息存款的期末成本為 1.4%，而截至 9 月 30 日為 1.22%。

Cycle to-date, since the Federal Reserve started increasing Fed funds rate in December 2015, we have had an implied beta of 56% on our loan yield, excluding ASC 310-30 accretion, and 30% on our total deposit cost, again, relative to the change in the average Fed funds rate. Our implied loan beta in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 61%, up from 55% in the third quarter, and our implied total deposit cost beta was 45% in the fourth quarter, down from 66% in the third quarter.

自聯準會於 2015 年 12 月開始提高聯邦基金利率以來，迄今為止，我們的貸款收益率隱含貝塔係數為 56%（不包括 ASC 310-30 增值），總存款成本隱含貝塔係數為 30%（同樣相對於聯邦基金平均利率的變化而言）。2018 年第四季度，我們的隱含貸款貝他係數為 61%，高於第三季的 55%；第四季度，我們的隱含總存款成本貝塔係數為 45%，低於第三季的 66%。

Now turning to Slide 9. Total noninterest income in the fourth quarter was $42 million compared to $46.5 million in the prior quarter. Excluding the impact from all gains on sales, total fourth quarter noninterest income was $39 million compared to $42 million in the prior quarter. Customer-driven income in the fourth quarter was $37 million, essentially flat from the prior quarter.

現在來看第 9 張投影片。第四季非利息收入總額為 4,200 萬美元，而上一季為 4,650 萬美元。剔除所有銷售收益的影響，第四季非利息收入總額為 3,900 萬美元，而上一季為 4,200 萬美元。第四季客戶驅動營收為 3,700 萬美元，與上一季基本持平。

Quarter-over-quarter, letter of credit fees and FX income increased, reflecting a greater volume of customer-driven FX transactions, partially offset by mark-to-market revaluations for foreign currency balance sheet items. Quarter-over-quarter, derivative fees decreased due to a decrease in the fair value of interest rate swaps as well as a lower volume of customer transactions.

與上一季相比，信用狀手續費和外匯收入有所增長，反映出客戶驅動的外匯交易量增加，但部分被外幣資產負債表項目的市值重估所抵銷。由於利率互換的公允價值下降以及客戶交易量減少，衍生性商品費用較上季下降。

Moving on to Slide 10. Fourth quarter noninterest expense was $188 million, and our adjusted noninterest expense, excluding amortization of tax credit investments and core deposit intangibles, was $156 million, a slight decrease from $158 million in the third quarter.

接下來是第10張投影片。第四季非利息支出為 1.88 億美元，經調整後的非利息支出（不包括稅收抵免投資和核心存款無形資產的攤銷）為 1.56 億美元，較第三季的 1.58 億美元略有下降。

Our fourth quarter adjusted efficiency ratio improved to 37.9% compared to 39.9% in the third quarter as our revenue growth outpaced expense growth, generating positive operating leverage. Over the past 5 quarters, our adjusted efficiency ratio has ranged from 41.6% down to 37.9% in the fourth quarter.

由於營收成長超過支出成長，產生了正面的經營槓桿效應，我們第四季的調整後效率比率從第三季的 39.9% 提高到 37.9%。過去五個季度，我們的調整後效率比率從 41.6% 降至第四季的 37.9%。

Our fourth quarter 2018 pretax, preprovision income of $255 million grew by 7% quarter-over-quarter, and our fourth quarter pretax, preprovision profitability ratio of 2.5% was up by 6 basis points from third quarter. Year-over-year, our pretax, preprovision income is up by 20% and pretax, preprovision profitability has expanded by 23 basis points.

2018 年第四季稅前撥備前營收為 2.55 億美元，季增 7%；第四季稅前撥備前獲利能力比率為 2.5%，比第三季提高了 6 個基點。與去年同期相比，我們的稅前撥備前收入成長了 20%，稅前撥備前獲利能力提高了 23 個基點。

In Slide 11 of the presentation, we detail out critical asset quality metrics. Our allowance for loan losses totaled $311 million as of December 31, 2018, or 96 basis points of loans held for investment, down slightly from 99 basis points as of both September 30, 2018, and December 31, 2017. Nonperforming assets of $93 million as of December 31 decreased by $22 million or 19% from $115 million as of September 30 and were equivalent to 23 basis points of total assets as of December 31, 2018, compared to 29 basis points as of the end of third quarter and 31 basis points at the end of the previous year.

在簡報的第 11 張投影片中，我們詳細介紹了關鍵資產品質指標。截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日，我們的貸款損失準備金總額為 3.11 億美元，相當於投資貸款的 96 個基點，略低於 2018 年 9 月 30 日和 2017 年 12 月 31 日的 99 個基點。截至 12 月 31 日，不良資產為 9,300 萬美元，較 9 月 30 日的 1.15 億美元減少了 2,200 萬美元，降幅達 19%。截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日，不良資產相當於總資產的 23 個基點，而第三季末為 29 個基點，上年末為 31 個基點。

For the full year of 2018, our net charge-offs were $40 million or 13 basis points of average loans, and we recorded a provision of credit losses of $64 million. This compares to net charge-offs of $23 million or 8 basis points of average loans and a provision for credit losses of $46 million in the full year of 2017. We continue to provision in excess of charge-offs to support our strong pace of loan origination. For the fourth quarter of 2018, net charge-offs were $16 million or 20 basis points of average loans annualized and the provision for credit losses recorded was $18 million.

2018 年全年，我們的淨沖銷額為 4,000 萬美元，相當於平均貸款額的 13 個基點，我們提列了 6,400 萬美元的信貸損失準備金。相較之下，2017 年全年淨沖銷額為 2,300 萬美元，相當於平均貸款額的 8 個基點，信貸損失準備金為 4,600 萬美元。為了支持我們強勁的貸款發放速度，我們持續提列超過壞帳準備的撥備。2018 年第四季，淨沖銷額為 1,600 萬美元，相當於年化平均貸款額的 20 個基點，提列的信貸損失準備金為 1,800 萬美元。

Moving to capital ratios on Slide 12. East West capital ratios remain strong. Tangible equity per share of $27.15 as of December 31 grew 5% linked quarter and grew by 17% year-over-year. Our regulatory capital ratios increased by 67 to 77 basis points year-over-year. We believe that organic balance sheet growth followed by measured common dividend increases is the best use of our capital at this time given our strong outlook for the near to medium term.

第 12 頁講解資本比率。東西方資本比率依然強勁。截至 12 月 31 日，每股有形權益為 27.15 美元，季增 5%，年增 17%。我們的監管資本比率年增了 67 至 77 個基點。鑑於我們對中短期前景的強勁預期，我們認為，在當前情況下，實現資產負債表有機成長並適度提高普通股股息是對我們資本的最佳利用。

As noted by Dominic and announced in our earnings release earlier today, East West Board of Directors has declared first quarter 2019 dividends for the common stock. The common stock cash dividend of 23 basis points (sic) [$0.23] per share is payable on February 15, 2019, to stockholders of record on February 4, 2019.

正如 Dominic 指出的，並在我們今天早些時候發布的收益報告中宣布的那樣，東西方董事會已宣布 2019 年第一季普通股股息。普通股現金股利為每股 0.23 美元（23 個基點），將於 2019 年 2 月 15 日支付給 2019 年 2 月 4 日登記在冊的股東。

And with that, I'll move on to reviewing our 2019 outlook on Slide 13. For the full year 2019 compared to our full year 2018 results, we expect end-of-period loans to increase by approximately 10%, diversified across the key categories of C&I, commercial real estate and single family. We anticipate deposit growth will support the loan growth in 2019. We expect our 2019 net interest income, excluding ASC 310-30 discount accretion, to grow at a low double-digit percentage rate. Please note, this is a new item we have added to our published outlook.

接下來，我將在第 13 張投影片上回顧我們的 2019 年展望。與 2018 年全年業績相比，我們預計 2019 年全年期末貸款將成長約 10%，貸款類型將多元化分佈在工商業、商業房地產和單戶住宅​​等主要類別中。我們預計2019年存款成長將支撐貸款成長。我們預計，2019 年淨利息收入（不包括 ASC 310-30 折價攤銷）將以較低的兩位數百分比成長率成長。請注意，這是我們在已發布的展望報告中新增的內容。

We expect our adjusted net interest margin, excluding the impact of ASC 310-30 discount accretion, to range between 3.75% and 3.80%. Our outlook incorporates no additional Fed funds rate increases in 2019. And with that, we still expect an expanding NIM in 2019 relative to full year 2018 and the fourth quarter margin as well.

我們預計，不計入 ASC 310-30 折價攤銷的影響，調整後的淨利差將在 3.75% 至 3.80% 之間。我們的展望認為，2019年聯邦基金利率不會再調高。因此，我們仍預期 2019 年淨利差將相對於 2018 年全年以及第四季利潤率有所擴大。

The impact of ASC 310-30 is continuing to trend down, and we expect accretion income to add just 2 basis points to the reported GAAP net interest margin in 2019. We expect noninterest expense, excluding tax credit amortization and core deposit premium amortization, to increase at a mid-single-digit rate.

ASC 310-30 的影響持續下降，我們預期 2019 年增值收入只會使報告的 GAAP 淨利差增加 2 個基點。我們預計，不包括稅收抵免攤銷和核心存款溢價攤銷的非利息支出將以中等個位數的速度增長。

Given our current view of revenue growth, this does imply modest, positive operating leverage in our full year efficiency ratio for 2019 compared to 40% in 2018. We project that the provision for credit losses will range between $80 million and $90 million. The expected year-over-year increase in the provision expense reflects loan growth as we otherwise expect that the asset quality backdrop in 2019 to be broadly similar to what we have experienced in 2018.

鑑於我們目前對營收成長的看法，這意味著與 2018 年的 40% 相比，我們 2019 年全年的營運槓桿率將保持適度的正成長。我們預計信貸損失準備金將在 8,000 萬美元至 9,000 萬美元之間。預計撥備支出年增率增加反映了貸款成長，因為我們預計 2019 年的資產品質背景與 2018 年大致相似。

Finally, we anticipate that the effective tax rate will be 15% for 2019 as we expect to continue to invest in tax credit investments which reduce our cash liability from the statutory rates. We anticipate tax credit investments to be at similar levels to 2018.

最後，我們預計 2019 年的實際稅率將為 15%，因為我們將繼續投資於稅收抵免投資，從而降低我們因法定稅率而產生的現金負債。我們預計稅收抵免投資將與 2018 年的水準相近。

With that, I will now turn the call back to Dominic for closing remarks.

接下來，我將把電話轉回給多明尼克，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Irene. In closing, we had a solid fourth quarter to finish 2018. We are looking forward to another year of strong financial performance in 2019. And with that, I will now open the call to questions. Operator?

謝謝你，艾琳。總之，我們在2018年第四季取得了穩健的成績，為這一年畫下了圓滿的句點。我們期待2019年能再創佳績。接下來，我將開始接受提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today will come from Jared Shaw of Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的賈里德·肖。

Maybe if we can start with the loan guidance outlook. The 10% number is less than what we saw this year. I guess what would have to happen to see loan growth come in at a higher level? Would it be an actual increase in the economic activity? Or are you expecting some type of a -- maybe a broader economic slowdown when you look at that 10% number?

或許我們可以先從貸款指引展望入手。10% 這個數字低於我們今年看到的數字。我想，要實現更高水準的貸款成長，需要發生什麼情況？這是否意味著經濟活動的實際成長？或者，你看到10%這個數字時，是否預期會出現某種程度的──例如更廣泛的經濟放緩？

Well, we did 11% last year. So this, we're projecting 10%. In terms of volume of business, probably worked out about more or less the same. So we are really not particularly looking at any sort of slowdown or anything like that at all. I think what we see is that we have a very diversified loan portfolio. And we see growth from single-family mortgages. We see growth from commercial real estate. We also see growth in C&I. And particularly in C&I -- within C&I, we have a very diversified portfolio.

去年我們做到了11%。所以，我們預計是 10%。就業務量而言，可能大致相同。所以我們真的完全沒有看到任何形式的經濟放緩或其他類似情況。我認為我們看到的是，我們的貸款組合非常多元化。我們看到單戶住宅抵押貸款業務也出現了成長。我們看到商業房地產的成長。我們也看到工商業領域的成長。尤其是在工商業領域－在工商業領域，我們擁有非常多元化的投資組合。

So growth come from different places and in different quarters. Like a good example will be in the fourth quarter our private equity capital call line and the entertainment portfolio risen up. And then if you recall in the third quarter, our energy business -- oil and gas business had gone up. So we just, from different areas and different quarters, they stepped up. I think that in a way that all of them are actually making pretty positive organic growth consistently. I mean, sometimes the different performance per quarter has to do with payoff because various industries or various borrowers have different needs, and so forth, and then that payoff cause some of these to vary.

因此，成長來自不同的地方和不同的領域。一個很好的例子是，在第四季度，我們的私募股權資本募集資金和娛樂投資組合都有所成長。如果你還記得的話，在第三季度，我們的能源業務——石油和天然氣業務有所成長。所以，來自不同地區、不同面向的人們都挺身而出。我認為從某種程度上來說，它們實際上都在持續地實現相當積極的自然成長。我的意思是，有時每個季度的業績差異與收益有關，因為不同的行業或不同的借款人有不同的需求等等，而收益差異會導致其中一些業績出現波動。

But all in all, I'd say that, at this point right now, we are comfortable with our guidance. Is it likely that we can do more? We're always trying to do more. And then so my view is that, at this stage, we feel pretty good with 10%, and we're going to try to do our best to outdo that guidance, if possible. And if the economic situation get better, we obviously will update our guidance later on down the road.

但總而言之，我認為，就目前而言，我們對目前的指導方針感到滿意。我們還有可能做得更多嗎？我們一直在努力做得更好。因此，我的看法是，現階段我們對 10% 的目標感到相當滿意，如果可能的話，我們將盡最大努力超越這一預期。如果經濟狀況好轉，我們顯然會在未來某個時候更新我們的指導意見。

Okay. And then shifting to capital, you do have a strong capital position with the outlook for 2019. That should stay strong. Would you consider supplementing capital management with a buyback or a special dividend beyond the traditional dividend here? And I guess the back end of that question is, where do you think a good capital ratio is for the bank now in terms of an optimal capital ratio?

好的。再來看資本方面，你們的資本狀況良好，對 2019 年的前景充滿信心。這種情況應該會持續下去。您是否考慮在傳統股利之外，透過股票回購或特別股利來補充資本管理？我想這個問題的最終目的是，您認為目前銀行的理想資本適足率是多少？

Yes. As Dominic mentioned, we are projecting that we will continue to have a strong organic growth. And that is, in our view, the best use of our capital and best for shareholders. Certainly, if the capital ratios continue to grow, the environment, it's more -- if we look at the environment and think that there are other alternatives for the capital for shareholders, that's something that we'll consider, and then we have active dialogue with the board about, Jared.

是的。正如多明尼克所提到的，我們預計我們將繼續保持強勁的內生成長。我們認為，這才是對我們資本的最佳利用，也是對股東最有利的做法。當然，如果資本比率繼續增長，環境會更加複雜——如果我們審視環境，並認為股東還有其他資本替代方案，我們會考慮這一點，然後我們會就此與董事會進行積極的對話，賈里德。

Yes. We constantly have discussion with our board. And so we are very shareholders friendly. So that's why this topic is always in discussion. And so far, we look at with our very strong return on equity, and we continue to be able to find new clients, grow our business organically. We are one of the few banks in the industry that really sort of not as suitable to go into this sort of buyback formula. So at this stage, that's where we are right now. And then, but if that condition ever change at East West, obviously, we are very logical and we will do what's right for our shareholders.

是的。我們經常與董事會進行討論。因此，我們非常重視股東利益。所以這個話題才會一直被討論。到目前為止，我們擁有非常強勁的股本回報率，並且能夠繼續找到新客戶，實現業務的有機成長。我們是業內少數幾家不太適合採用這種回購模式的銀行之一。所以，目前我們的情況就是這樣。但是，如果東西方的情況發生變化，很顯然，我們非常講道理，我們會做對股東有利的事情。

And our next question today will come from Dave Rochester of Deutsche Bank.

今天的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的戴夫·羅徹斯特。

A couple on the NIM guide. What are you guys expecting for the impact from the December hike in this guidance and the liquidity build impact that you had this quarter, if you're expecting that to run off or sort of remain here?

NIM指南上的一對夫婦。你們預計12月份的升息以及本季流動性增加的影響會如何變化？你們預計這些影響會消失還是會持續下去？

Yes, Dave. So we are expecting a increase in our interest income and in the NIM. And our guidance for the full year 2019 does reflect that as far as the increase the Fed funds in December. Overall, we do not think that we'll have the same level of excess liquidity that we did for most of the fourth quarter next year as well. So I would say, if you look at the full year '18 as more of a normalized rate for us as far as the liquidity and the amount of excess shorter-duration assets that we have versus exactly what happened in the fourth quarter, that may help you kind of model that out.

是的，戴夫。因此，我們預計利息收入和淨利差將會增加。我們對 2019 年全年的預期也反映了這一點，即聯準會在 12 月提高了基金利率。整體而言，我們認為明年我們也不會像第四季的大部分時間那樣擁有同等水準的過剩流動性。所以我想說，如果你把 2018 年全年的情況看作是我們流動性和短期資產超額數量更為正常的參考值，而不是第四季度的情況，這可能會幫助你進行建模。

Okay. And then just a follow-up. As you guys think about ways to support the NIM over the next year, it looks like your securities yield is actually below your cash yield right now, and it sits at a negative spread versus some of your borrowings and maybe even some of your higher-rate CDs. Have you guys thought about running some of that off and repaying borrowings completely and then maybe repositioning the rest? It seems like you have the capital to do that if you had to take some hits on that repositioning, just wanted to get some thoughts there.

好的。然後還有一個後續問題。各位在思考如何支撐未來一年的淨利差時，目前看來你們的證券收益率實際上低於現金收益率，並且與你們的一些借款甚至一些高利率的定期存款相比，利差為負。你們有沒有想過先償還一部分債務，然後再重新調整剩餘資金的用途？看起來你有足夠的資金來應對重新定位可能帶來的一些損失，我只是想聽聽大家的想法。

From time to time, we've looked at that. And over the, I think, the last several years, we had done some repositioning. I will just kind of point out the fourth quarter security yields was negatively impacted by the additional amortization. So ex that, we would have been at a 2.35%. If we look at what we're buying right now, the yields are higher, closer probably to 2.6%. A little bit misleading with some of the cash. Some of that cash is in our Hong Kong subsidiary bank where the rates are higher, so that skews it a little bit as well. Maybe off-line can give a little bit more of the detail on that for you. But certainly, we do anticipate being able to redeploy those securities in higher-yielding assets. But overall, we're not taking too much duration risk on that portfolio, and we are reinvesting in similar types of securities, agencies, Ginnies.

我們不時會關注這個問題。我認為，在過去的幾年裡，我們進行了一些重新定位。我只想指出，第四季度證券收益率受到了額外攤銷的負面影響。所以，如果沒有這些因素，我們的報酬率就會達到 2.35%。如果我們看看我們現在買的股票，殖利率更高，可能接近 2.6%。部分現金的處理方式有點誤導人。部分現金存放在我們香港的子公司銀行，那裡的利率較高，所以這也造成了一些偏差。或許線下能為你提供更多細節。但我們當然預期能夠將這些證券重新部署到收益更高的資產中。但總的來說，我們並沒有在這個投資組合中承擔過多的久期風險，而且我們正在對類似類型的證券、機構和吉尼證券進行再投資。

Our next question will come from Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題將來自美國銀行美林證券的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

So I think just wanted to follow up on the NIM on the other side of the balance sheet where we've seen a fair amount of growth in time deposits and you grew noninterest-bearing deposits as well. So I'm just trying to understand as you think about the NIM, my sense is, without any rate hikes, we see another leg higher in first quarter and then drifts lower as new growth is put on. Is that the right way to think about how the trajectory of NIM in the absence of rate hikes? And if you can talk about just outlook on deposit growth from a mix standpoint, do you expect continued sort of mix shift towards time deposits to continue?

所以我想跟進一下資產負債表另一側的淨利差，我們看到定期存款有相當大的增長，你們的無息存款也有所增長。所以我想了解一下，您在考慮淨利差時，我的感覺是，在沒有任何加息的情況下，我們會看到第一季度淨息差再上漲一輪，然後隨著新的經濟增長而逐漸下降。這種思考方式是否正確，才能理解在不升息的情況下淨利差的走勢？如果僅從存款結構的角度談談存款成長前景，您認為定期存款的佔比是否會持續成長？

I think for the time deposit, well, obviously, because of the rate hike, we've seen the customers now finally -- many of our core retail customers now start finally paying attention to deposit interest rate does matter. So they are now, many of them have converted. But still, what you notice is that, as you've seen in our fourth quarter numbers, we are not just growing CDs. In fact, we grew even more on money market accounts. And so we continue to have this discussion and dialogue with our customers. And sometimes, you lock in a CD, it may not give them the flexibility. But more importantly, we are getting more and more commercial customers. So because of the nature of the commercial customers, I mean, they do need flexibility, so many of them are really not going to be in tune and go into CDs.

我認為對於定期存款來說，很顯然，由於利率上漲，我們現在終於看到客戶——我們許多核心零售客戶現在終於開始關注存款利率的重要性。現在確實如此，他們中的許多人已經皈依基督教了。但是，正如您在我們第四季度的數據中所看到的，我們不僅僅是CD銷量在成長。事實上，我們在貨幣市場帳戶上的成長甚至更多。因此，我們將繼續與客戶進行此類討論和對話。有時候，你簽訂的 CD 合約可能會限制他們的靈活性。但更重要的是，我們的商業客戶越來越多。所以，由於商業客戶的性質，我的意思是，他們確實需要靈活性，因此他們中的許多人實際上不會接受 CD。

So if you look in 2019, I don't think that the conversion rate will be as high as what happened in 2018. I just think that many of them who are our core customers who converted from the regular checking accounts or maybe money market accounts to CDs pretty much have done it. And we will bring in some new CD customers without a doubt in 2019 because every year we bring in new customers. But then, I would say that the rate of conversion should be substantially less than 2018.

所以，如果你看看 2019 年，我認為轉換率不會像 2018 年那麼高。我認為，我們很多核心客戶，也就是那些從普通支票帳戶或貨幣市場帳戶轉為定期存款的客戶，基本上已經完成了轉換。毫無疑問，我們在 2019 年將會吸引一些新的 CD 客戶，因為我們每年都會吸引新客戶。但是，我認為轉換率應該會比 2018 年大幅下降。

Got it. And just on a separate topic, Dominic. So you were very upbeat on loan growth last quarter, and I think that's supported in your guidance for 10% this year. Having said that, I think from an investor standpoint, there remains concerns around China tariffs, and let's assume the worst case where there's no deal, we get into another round of tariffs, like where is the downside risk to growth? Is it in the mortgage growth slowing down? Is it commercial growth slowing down? Like how do -- all on the credit front. I know you've talked about this but would love to get your updated thoughts here because I feel like it's weighed on the stock all year.

知道了。還有，多明尼克，我想再說點別的。所以你上個季度對貸款成長非常樂觀，我認為你今年給出的 10% 的成長預期也印證了這一點。話雖如此，我認為從投資者的角度來看，仍然存在對中國關稅的擔憂，假設最糟糕的情況是沒有達成協議，我們又要面臨新一輪關稅，那麼經濟成長的下行風險在哪裡？是因為房貸成長放緩嗎？商業成長放緩了嗎？例如，在信貸方面該怎麼做？我知道您之前談過這個問題，但我很想聽聽您最新的想法，因為我覺得這個問題已經對股價造成了一整年的壓力。

Yes. What you can see in 2018, if you look at what should be listed on the top-10 news in any kind of media or magazine, the trade war will probably front and center at the top. And interesting enough, while we presented the East West exposure to tariffs 2 quarters in a row, but at the end of the day, come the end of the year, we actually grew our trade portfolio by 7% year-over-year. I think organization like East West always has a mindset that we are still, at our size, can be very nimble. And one key advantage we have is that we know the space, we know the business and we know how to navigate. And that's why, while others may be shying away from the exposure, sometimes we're able to capitalize on these kind of like perceived crisis situation to result in tangible opportunities for East West Bank.

是的。如果你看看 2018 年各種媒體或雜誌的十大新聞榜單，你會發現貿易戰很可能佔據榜首位置。有趣的是，雖然我們連續兩個季度報告了東西方貿易對關稅的曝險，但最終，到年底，我們的貿易組合實際上比去年同期成長了 7%。我認為像東西方集團這樣的組織始終秉持著這樣的理念：即使規模如此之小，我們仍然可以非常靈活。我們擁有的一個關鍵優勢是，我們了解這個領域，我們了解這個行業，我們知道如何駕馭它。正因如此，當其他人可能迴避這種風險時，我們有時卻能夠利用這種所謂的危機局面，為華美銀行創造實際的機會。

So I don't know what the final discussions is going to be like between U.S. and China. At this stage, it looks much more positive than last year. But you never know until it's all done. And when I say done, it's never going to be all done. Most likely, there's going to be some sort of like general agreement, but then later on, there may be some of the other issues that may pop up. Our position at East West is that we're watching the development on a day-to-day basis and making sure that, as long as we stay knowledgeable, we'll always find opportunities to capitalize on it. The other thing I want to mention, as you highlight that, is that single family or is it CRE or is it C&I that may slow down due to the U.S. trade tariff dispute. Again, it's hard to tell. We thought that, with the restriction of money coming from China 2 years ago, there will be a much slower growth in our single-family mortgages area as we do have some of these clients from China and they actually bought home in United States. It was substantial down payment and get a small mortgage from us. But as of 2018, we continue to have strong growth in our single-family mortgage. And we also so far have a pretty strong pipeline. And what we've seen is that -- and our conclusion is that besides just the new investors coming from China that are buying single-family homes here in the past, we are taking market share domestically from either Chinese-American citizens here or other non-Asian customers who find our services, the turnaround time to be substantially better than the other peers. And for that reason that we're taking share. So we will continue to also work on that to make sure 2019 that we execute doing our job so that we will be able to get more business than the year before. And that's pretty much our East West strategy is that we execute and we focus. And that's about it to pretty much get the financial results of what we just presented to you earlier. And in 2019 is more or less the same. We got to execute. And we need to focus. And that's pretty much about it.

所以我不知道中美之間的最終談判會是什麼樣子。現階段來看，情況比去年樂觀許多。但不到最後，誰也說不準。我說“完成了”，其實永遠不可能真正完成。很可能，會達成某種程度的共識，但之後可能會出現其他一些問題。東西方的立場是，我們每天都在關注事態發展，並確保只要我們保持資訊靈通，就能始終找到從中獲利的機會。正如您所強調的，我還想提一下，由於美國貿易關稅爭端，單戶住宅、商業地產還是工商業地產可能會放緩。這很難說。我們認為，由於兩年前中國資金流入受到限制，我們的單戶住宅抵押貸款業務成長速度將會慢得多，因為我們有一些來自中國的客戶，他們實際上在美國購買了房產。首付金額可觀，我們只提供了一筆小額抵押貸款。但截至 2018 年，我們的單戶住宅抵押貸款業務持續保持強勁成長。而且我們目前也擁有相當強大的產品線。我們看到的情況是——我們的結論是——除了過去從中國來此購買獨棟住宅的新投資者之外，我們還從國內的華裔美國公民或其他非亞洲客戶手中奪取了市場份額，他們認為我們的服務和周轉時間比其他同行要好得多。正因如此，我們才能佔據市場佔有率。因此，我們將繼續努力，確保在 2019 年我們能夠做好本職工作，從而獲得比前一年更多的業務。這就是我們東西方策略的大致內容：執行，專注。以上就是我們剛才向大家展示的財務結果的大致內容。2019年的情況也大致相同。我們必須執行。我們需要集中精力。差不多就是這樣了。

Our next question will come from Chris McGratty of KBW.

下一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

Irene, the mid-single-digit expense guide obviously doesn't include rates. To the extent we do get rate hikes in the year, number one, can you talk to the sensitivity of that perhaps going higher? And also the sensitivity for each hike, can you just remind us what the basis point dollar effect is or the net interest income is?

艾琳，這份個位數中段的費用指南顯然不包括利率。如果今年真的升息，首先，您能否談談升息幅度可能加大的敏感度？另外，對於每次升息，您能否提醒我們一下基點美元效應或淨利息收入的敏感度是多少？

Chris, I think you were referring to our guidance where we say that we have mid-single-digit growth in operating expense. I don't know if the rate hike will really impact that significantly. Certainly, depending on the rate environment, production may be lower or higher, and that will affect the compensation number. But overall, nothing substantial.

克里斯，我想你指的是我們的業績指引，其中我們提到營運費用將實現中等個位數的成長。我不知道升息是否真的會對此產生重大影響。當然，根據利率環境的不同，產量可能會降低或升高，這將影響補償金額。但總的來說，沒有什麼實質的內容。

Okay. And then the sensitivity, can you just remind us the basis point sensitivity to each 25?

好的。那麼靈敏度呢？您能提醒一下我們一下每個 25 個基點的靈敏度嗎？

Are you referring to NIM?

您指的是NIM嗎？

That's right. Yes.

這是正確的。是的。

Chris, this is Julianna. In the fourth quarter, the sensitivity of the net interest margin to each rate hike that we saw was -- on average, we are now at 7 basis point per 25 through the fourth quarter.

克里斯，這位是朱莉安娜。第四季度，淨利差對每次升息的敏感度為——平均而言，目前第四季每 25 個月為 7 個基點。

Our next question will come from Michael Young of SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題將來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Michael Young。

Wanted to get a little bit of color on just the fee income growth outlook. I know, historically, that's been tracking kind of closer to loan growth potentially in most categories, but we've been relatively flat the last couple years. So just wanted to see any updated thoughts if that's mix shift in the type of loan growth or any change in customer demand, et cetera.

想了解一下手續費收入成長前景的具體情況。我知道，從歷史數據來看，大多數類別的貸款成長可能與貸款成長更為接近，但過去幾年我們的成長相對穩定。所以，我想了解大家對這是否是貸款成長類型組合轉變或客戶需求變化等方面的最新看法。

I think relatively flat year-over-year is exactly where we're at as we compare to last year. If we look at the category, certainly, there are areas where we've seen growth, as you mentioned, related to the loan growth. Year-over-year, you had certain categories, for example, FX fee income. Last year, we had a lot more volume of revenue related to customer transactions related to where the view was of what would happen with the Chinese RMB currency. This year, less so. So some of that market driven, same thing with the swaps given kind of where rates are and the flatness of the curve and the expectations for the future. I think when we look at 2019, certainly, in those areas from a commercial side, also from a consumer side, wealth management, we feel there's a little bit of work to do and that we're optimistic we will be able to kind of have that growth in 2019 in all these categories.

我認為，與去年相比，我們目前的狀況基本上持平。如果我們看一下這個類別，當然，正如您所提到的，我們確實看到了一些與貸款成長相關的成長領域。與前一年相比，您有一些特定的類別，例如外匯手續費收入。去年，由於人們對人民幣匯率走勢的看法，我們的收入與客戶交易量大幅增加。今年情況有所改善。所以，部分市場因素驅動了互換交易，考慮到當前的利率水準、殖利率曲線的平坦程度以及對未來的預期，互換交易也是如此。我認為，展望 2019 年，無論是在商業方面，還是在消費者方面，以及財富管理方面，我們都感到還有一些工作要做，但我們樂觀地認為，2019 年所有這些類別都能實現成長。

Yes. I think that as I just said it earlier, execution and focus. We need better execution and focus in 2019. But I tell you, I feel pretty confident that can be better. I feel pretty good about talking to these team members in these categories, and they all feel that 2019 -- relatively optimistic that we will be able to do better.

是的。我認為正如我剛才所說，關鍵在於執行力和專注力。2019年我們需要更好的執行力和更專注的重點。但我告訴你，我很有信心狀況會更好。我覺得和這些類別的團隊成員交流感覺很好，他們都對 2019 年持相對樂觀的態度，認為我們能夠做得更好。

Okay. And just taking all that together, maybe if we get a low single-digit kind of growth in fees or something that, high single-digit or double-digit net interest income growth and then the mid-single-digit expense growth, I mean, we should see pretty meaningful improvement in the efficiency ratio this year. Is that the outlook? And anything that would cause that to kind of not come to fruition?

好的。綜合考慮所有這些因素，如果我們能實現手續費的個位數低增長，淨利息收入的個位數高增長或兩位數增長，以及支出的個位數中等增長，那麼我們今年的效率比率應該會有相當大的改善。這就是預期嗎？有什麼因素會導致這件事無法實現呢？

I think I would categorize that as improvement. I don't know about meaningful. Certainly, just with the positive operating leverage, we expect the kind of strong profitability. We do think that the efficiency will increase -- improve. Julianna is correcting me. Improve.

我認為這應該算是一種進步。我不知道這是否有意義。當然，僅憑積極的經營槓桿作用，我們就預期能實現強勁的獲利能力。我們認為效率將會提高。朱莉安娜在糾正我。提升。

Our next question will come from Matthew Clark of Piper Jaffray.

下一個問題將來自 Piper Jaffray 公司的 Matthew Clark。

The mid-single-digit core expense guide, I mean, should we think of that as 5% or 4% to 6% or 3% to 7%? Just curious how wide of a range you might be thinking about.

我的意思是，中等個位數的核心支出指導原則，我們應該把它理解為 5%、4% 到 6% 還是 3% 到 7%？我只是好奇你考慮的範圍有多廣。

We should think about it mid-single digit.

我們應該考慮個位數中段的水平。

All right. Just figured I'd try. And then on leveraged lending getting a lot of attention these days, just wanted to get an update around your exposure there.

好的。我只是想試試看。最近槓桿貸款備受關注，我想了解您在這方面的投資情況。

Sure. We have leveraged lending exposure that is about 6% of our total C&I book, about 2% of our total loan book.

當然。我們的槓桿貸款曝險約占我們商業和工業貸款總額的 6%，約占我們貸款總額的 2%。

Our next question will come from Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的肯·澤貝。

Just want to be a little more specific in terms of the guidance, speaking specifically on the deposit growth side. But what are you assuming -- sorry, deposit/securities growth. But what are you assuming for securities growth in 2019 as well?

我想就指導意見更具體地說明一下，特別是關於存款成長方面。但你所假設的是什麼——抱歉，是存款/證券成長。那麼，您對2019年證券市場的成長又作何預期呢？

Yes. We're not assuming a substantial increase in our securities portfolio at this point, Ken, for 2019.

是的。肯，就目前而言，我們並不認為2019年我們的證券投資組合會大幅成長。

Got it. Okay. So whatever deposits you have or given the strong deposit growth, presumably, that stayed constant and then it stays relatively, I guess, stable thereafter. Okay. And then just really quickly, the second or follow-up question I had. In terms of your deposit beta, it was good to see that it was actually lower sequentially. Some of the banks that we talked to have said that they actually expect an acceleration or an increase in deposit costs in the first quarter. Is that also your expectation? Or what are you seeing in terms of the pace of deposit beta changes going into first quarter?

知道了。好的。所以，無論你擁有多少存款，或考慮到強勁的存款成長，想必存款都保持不變，然後我想，之後存款也會相對穩定下來。好的。然後，我很快地問了第二個或後續問題。就您的存款β值而言，很高興看到它實際上環比下降。我們採訪的一些銀行表示，他們預計第一季存款成本將加速上漲。這也是你的期望嗎？或者，您認為第一季存款β值的變動速度如何？

Yes. That's a great question. We do anticipate given kind of how we're modeling for 2019 that there will continue to be a rise in the deposit costs in the first quarter of 2019, maybe a little bit more as well in the second quarter but at a modest pace relative to where we're at. And adding to that, we expect that the interest income from the loans and securities and the growth from that will continue similar to the fourth quarter to be in excess of that. And I'll also share, I think, when we look at the fourth quarter, the actual results versus what we had previously modeled, the cost of deposits, the actual came in at about 90 basis points. We had modeled maybe 2 basis points under that 88 or so. So I wanted to just share that with you so you understand kind of what we were thinking versus the actual.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。根據我們對 2019 年的預測模型，我們預計 2019 年第一季存款成本將繼續上漲，第二季可能還會略微上漲一些，但相對於目前的水平而言，漲幅會比較溫和。此外，我們預計貸款和證券的利息收入及其成長將與第四季度類似，並超過這一水平。我還要分享一下，當我們看一下第四季度，實際結果與我們之前建模的結果相比，存款成本實際上約為 90 個基點。我們先前預測的匯率可能會比 88 低 2 個基點左右。所以我想和你們分享一下，這樣你們就能了解我們當時的想法和實際情況之間的差異。

Our next question will come from Lana Chan of BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題將來自 BMO 資本市場的 Lana Chan。

A couple of questions. One is on your asset sensitivity. As we get to sort of maybe towards the later ends of this tightening cycle, any thoughts about potentially moderating your asset sensitivity with swaps or hedges or something else?

幾個問題。一是你的資產敏感度。隨著我們可能逐漸接近這輪緊縮週期的尾聲，您是否考慮過透過互換、對沖或其他方式來降低資產對價格的敏感度？

Yes. That's a great question. Certainly, as we get, it looks like, maybe the end of the rising rate kind of environment, certainly, the forward curve suggests that in the inversion shorter term right now. Some of the things that we've done and I'll share are, as far as with the C&I loans, putting back floors. This is something we started late last year below the fully kind of index rate, below the margin, just to make sure, from a balance sheet perspective, that we're protected if rates do decrease. Additionally, the use of hedges, collars, that is something that we're considering and have discussions at our ALCO for. We haven't as of yet at the end of December. But certainly, that is something that we will continue to evaluate as the year progresses.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。當然，隨著我們逐漸了解情況，看起來或許是利率上升環境的終結，當然，遠期曲線表明，目前短期內利率可能會出現倒掛。我們已經做了一些事情，我將和大家分享，例如，就工商業貸款而言，就是重建地板。這是我們去年底開始實施的，利率低於完全指數利率，低於利差，只是為了從資產負債表的角度確保，如果利率下降，我們能夠得到保護。此外，我們正在考慮使用對接劑和項圈，並在我們的資產負債管理委員會 (ALCO) 上對此進行討論。截至12月底，我們還沒有。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們會繼續評估這個問題。

Okay. And then just on the other side of that on the deposit costs, we're entering Chinese New Year soon. I know you guys usually have special CDs around that. What are your plans for CD promotions?

好的。另一方面，關於押金成本，我們很快就要迎來中國新年了。我知道你們通常會推出一些相關的特別CD。你們的CD促銷計劃是什麼？

Yes. We always do CD promotion around Chinese New Year. And so this year, again, we will do that. And we will offer a nice little gift item that is relevant to this year's Chinese New Year theme. And we think that this will do well. Now in terms of rate, we actually are offering rate that is lower than what we offer in the third quarter of last year.

是的。我們每年春節前後都會進行CD促銷活動。所以今年，我們將繼續這樣做。我們也會提供一份與今年中國新年主題相關的精美小禮物。我們認為這會很成功。就利率而言，我們實際提供的利率比去年第三季提供的利率還要低。

Our next question will come from Aaron Deer of Sandler O'Neill + Partners.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Sandler O'Neill + Partners 的 Aaron Deer。

Most of my questions have been asked and answered. Just a question on -- you've discussed a little bit around improving some of your fee-based businesses, in particular, wealth management. Any chance you'd be looking to do anything on the acquisition front there?

我的大部分問題都已經提出並得到了解答。我有個問題——您之前稍微談過如何改進一些收費業務，特別是財富管理業務。您有沒有可能在收購方面有所作為？

We, at this point, again, because of very nice organic growth, we -- it makes it difficult for us to find meaningful target. This is kind of like a little bit similar type of discussion we have with the board. There is always this popular topic that is in the industry right now is that acquisition or stock buyback. Neither one of them work really well for us because, as you have seen, know that relatively strong organic growth that we have in both loans and deposit. And then our view is that, if we can do it organically, why deal with other people's problems? But there are obviously -- there are banks out there that we'll be interested to explore, but then you have to come back down to, is the price reasonable? And before we get into that, I think right now, we are focusing on our own execution. And so far, it's turning into some very, very good financial performance. And so from that standpoint, we try not to be distracted too much. So organization-wise, I would say that the whole organization, all our associates are pretty much focusing on the day-to-day execution. Irene and I do occasionally get distracted. Once in a while, I like to get distracted and look at somebody else's problem and see what potentially that's out there that is suitable for us. But at this stage right now, I would say that, we don't see a lot of likelihood there will be some major deal that we will be announcing.

目前，由於良好的自然成長，我們很難找到有意義的目標。這有點像我們和董事會進行的那種討論。目前業界一直有個熱門話題，那就是收購或股票回購。它們對我們來說都不太適用，因為正如你所看到的，我們在貸款和存款方面都有相對較強的自然增長。因此，我們的觀點是，如果我們能夠自然而然地解決這個問題，為什麼還要處理其他人的問題呢？但顯然，有些銀行是我們有興趣檢視的，但最終還是要回到價格是否合理的問題。在我們深入探討這個問題之前，我認為目前我們應該專注於自身的執行力。到目前為止，這已經轉化為非常非常好的財務表現。因此，從這個角度來看，我們盡量不讓自己分心。從組織層面來看，我認為整個組織，我們所有的員工都非常專注於日常執行工作。我和艾琳偶爾會分心。偶爾，我喜歡轉移注意力，看看別人的問題，看看有沒有什麼方法可能適合我們。但就目前階段而言，我認為不太可能會有任何重大交易需要宣布。

Our next question will come from Gary Tenner of D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題將來自 D.A. Davidson 的 Gary Tenner。

Just a couple of questions here. On your credit quality table, there was the addition of other NPA item. Was that something that was in nonaccrual previously or something that popped up new in the quarter?

這裡就幾個問題。您的信用品質表中新增了其他不良資產項目。這是之前就已存在的非應計項目，還是本季新出現的項目？

Yes. It was something that was nonaccrual before. And what that line item is, is we foreclosed on some film rights. There was no associated charge-off with that. And we do expect to be able to sell that in the near future at par or hopefully above.

是的。此前，這屬於非應計項目。那項內容是，我們收回了一些電影版權。這件事沒有相關的沖銷。我們預計在不久的將來能夠以平價或更高價格售出該產品。

Okay. Great. And then just another question just broadly on asset quality. With your guidance for provision in '19, the $80 million to $90 million range, but with sort of steady pace of loan growth next year, is there anything that you're seeing that's giving you sort of an outlook that you might want to increase the qualitative reserves? Is it the timing of where we are in the expansion cycle? Maybe just talk about the thoughts around that.

好的。偉大的。然後還有一個關於資產品質的比較廣泛的問題。根據您對 2019 年撥備的指導意見，撥備範圍為 8000 萬至 9000 萬美元，但明年貸款增長速度相對穩定，您是否看到任何跡象表明您可能需要增加定性準備金？是我們所處的擴張週期階段的時機問題嗎？或許可以聊聊這方面的想法。

Yes. That's a great question. The qualitative reserves for East West continue to be a substantial component of our allowance, ranging 40% to 40%-plus. Probably at the end of the year, December 31, the qualitative reserve was 44% of the total allowance, so not insignificant. And we continue to evaluate as far as from macro factors, GDP growth, where the curves are to see are there appropriate qualitative factors that we should add or adjust. When we look at the projections for 2019, certainly, with the loan growth of 10%, we need to provide for that. The range that we're looking at, round numbers here, for past related loans is probably 50 to 100 basis points, depending on that. So in the last few years, we continue to reserve somewhat around those levels, but we've also had the backdrop of a substantial reduction of substandard loans. At this point in time, substandard loans to total loans, I think it's under 1% as of December 31. So to expect to continue to draw on that is not likely. Some of those are the factors that we've looked at as far as with the provision. But overall, we don't expect a substantial change in our allowance methodology.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。東西方礦區的定性儲備仍然是我們準備金的重要組成部分，佔 40% 到 40% 以上。到年底（12 月 31 日），定性準備金可能佔總準備金的 44%，因此並非微不足道。我們將繼續從宏觀因素、GDP成長以及曲線位置等方面進行評估，看看是否有合適的定性因素需要增加或調整。當我們展望 2019 年的預測時，貸款成長率肯定為 10%，我們需要為此做好準備。我們看到的區間（這裡是整數）是過去相關貸款的 50 到 100 個基點，取決於情況。因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們繼續在這些水平附近保持一定程度的準備金，但與此同時，不良貸款也大幅減少。截至12月31日，不良貸款佔貸款總額的比例我認為低於1%。因此，指望繼續依靠這種模式是不太可能的。其中一些因素是我們在考慮該條款時所關注的。但整體而言，我們預期津貼計算方法不會發生實質變化。

Our next question will come from Brock Vandervliet of UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的布羅克·范德弗利特。

Could you talk about what you're seeing in terms of your Asian subsidiary? What are activities in China looking like in terms of loans and deposits? How has the tone changed, if at all, in the last quarter or so?

您能談談您目前在亞洲子公司方面看到的情況嗎？中國的貸款和存款活動現況如何？在過去一個季度左右的時間裡，這種基調是否有所變化？如果有，變化如何？

Well, our Greater China region, the total loan portfolio is $1.3 billion as of today. And they have continued to grow in a nice pace because -- obviously, because of the -- still, it was so much smaller than United States, so obviously, the percentage growth is higher. And we deliberately built our cross-border teams and then enhanced the capability and expertise in our Greater China region. And I do feel that they're making decent progress today because with their knowledge of understanding the U.S.-China current situation and current dynamics, they are able to identify opportunities because the clients value their input, their expertise and their knowledge. So they are making stride in terms of bringing new customers, one customer at a time. We are only doing commercial banking business in the Greater China region. We are not in the retail side. So, so far, our new relationship are all commercial banking business. And many of them do have some sort of like U.S.-China cross-border type of activities there. And I expect that to continue to grow in 2019 and beyond.

截至目前，我們在大中華區的總貸款組合為 13 億美元。而且它們繼續以良好的速度增長，因為——顯然，因為——儘管如此，它仍然比美國小得多，所以很明顯，增長百分比更高。我們特意組建了跨境團隊，並提升了我們在大中華區的能力和專業知識。而且我確實覺得他們現在取得了不錯的進展，因為他們了解中美當前形勢和動態，並且能夠發現機遇，因為客戶重視他們的意見、專業知識和經驗。所以他們在吸引新客戶方面取得了長足進步，一次只吸引一個客戶。我們只在大中華區開展商業銀行業務。我們不做零售。所以，到目前為止，我們之間的新關係都只限於商業銀行業務。而其中許多國家確實在那裡開展某種類似美中跨國的活動。我預計這一趨勢將在 2019 年及以後繼續增長。

Okay. And as a separate question. You mentioned the capital call portfolio. How large is that portfolio? And how do you see the competitive intensity around that segment?

好的。還有一個單獨的問題。您提到了資本募集組合。這個投資組合規模有多大？您如何看待該細分市場的競爭強度？

As of the end of the year, the capital call portfolio, our PE portfolio was about $1.2 billion outstanding, $2 billion commitment.

截至年底，我們的私募股權投資組合（資本募集組合）未償付金額約為 12 億美元，承諾金額約為 20 億美元。

And so far, they are doing good. I mean, we started about 5, 6 years ago. And they continue to grow on a ongoing basis. And we expect them to continue to be able to do well in 2019 and beyond.

目前來看，他們做得很好。我的意思是，我們大概在五、六年前開始的。而且它們還在持續成長。我們預計他們在 2019 年及以後將繼續取得好成績。

And our next question will come from David Chiaverini of Wedbush.

接下來的問題將來自 Wedbush 公司的 David Chiaverini。

A couple questions. So a lot of economists are calling for a slowdown in GDP growth in 2019. Would you consider slowing your loan growth to below the 10% guidance if you see a slowdown or would you even consider slowing growth preemptively?

我有幾個問題。因此，許多經濟學家預測2019年GDP成長將放緩。如果經濟成長放緩，您是否會考慮將貸款成長降至 10% 以下？還是您會考慮提前放緩增速？

Well, I think that's really -- it's not like -- my view is that it's not -- while we deliberately slow down based on -- to be in alignment with GDP and so forth, I think it's more or less like that we need to be substantially more vigilant towards our credit portfolio. And we started that. In fact, over 2 years ago, internally, we looked at with the GDP rising for -- 2 years ago, was almost a decade at that time, and then we had a bull market that keep going up. We have real estate prices keep going up. Where is the upside? When we look at the economic situation, we look at those signs over 2 years ago. We just don't see a lot of upside potential in terms of the economic condition you continue to keep sort of like charging up stronger and stronger and knowing that there's going to be a likelihood -- there's going to be some sort of like a, either slowdown or the stock market have to probably make an adjustment and so forth, which we've seen, in fact, in 2018, and that's sort of anticipated. And their standpoint -- and that's why we stay vigilant in terms of making sure that we have a very strong underwriting criteria. And we scrutinize our portfolio in a more robust type of monitoring. And so those are kind of things that we started working on and building a better credit risk management capability. And we will continue to stay vigilant and be very careful and looking at our loan portfolio just to make sure that we do not push the envelope too much. Our organic loan growth that we projected right now, that's our guidance based on what we've seen. If there is some really, really dramatic situation or any kind of outcome that cause us not be able to originate loans with the kind of like strong underwriting that we expected, obviously, we end up substantially slowing it down. And so we just kind of like run our business with basic common sense and do what's best for the bank. I mean, we like to grow, but we never wanted to grow for the sake of potentially taking substantial loan losses. And that's just going to be contradictory to the East West principles. So I feel pretty comfortable that, while we put a guidance out there, I mean, after all it is a guidance. It's not something that we have to stick with it when the economic condition change. So we will adjust accordingly based on the circumstances. Frankly, last year, with the U.S.-China situation, it's not like that Day 1. We know, 100% comfortable, that sort of like in crisis we'll find opportunities. We have to work our way through, too. So we expect that our loan growth may slow down and may get below our guidance. Surprisingly, our team executed and ended up getting above it. It's not because we push it. It just happened that because somehow we find more opportunities. So in 2019, who knows what the economic direction is going to go. But what we do know is that we're going to be looking at every credit portfolio very carefully and making sure that we're doing the right thing. And if the opportunity is out there, they'll allow us to take on additional new clients and helping our existing clients to expand their business, so be it, and we do more. But if the opportunity is not there, then obviously, we'll slow down. So that's what we are.

嗯，我認為這其實——並不是說——我的觀點是，雖然我們刻意放慢速度，是為了與GDP等目標保持一致，但我認為更確切地說，我們需要對我們的信貸組合保持更加警惕。我們開始了這項工作。事實上，兩年前，我們內部審視了GDP的成長情況——兩年前，差不多是十年前，然後我們經歷了一輪持續上漲的多頭市場。房地產價格持續上漲。優勢在哪裡？當我們審視經濟情勢時，我們會回顧兩年前的那些跡象。就經濟狀況而言，我們看不到太多的上漲潛力，經濟一直在穩步增長，而且我們知道很可能會出現某種程度的放緩，或者股市可能需要進行調整等等，事實上，我們在 2018 年已經看到了這種情況，這也在預料之中。他們的立場——正因如此，我們才始終保持警惕，確保我們擁有非常嚴格的承保標準。我們會以更嚴格的監控方式仔細檢視我們的投資組合。所以，我們開始著手解決這些問題，並努力建立更好的信用風險管理能力。我們將繼續保持警惕，非常謹慎地審查我們的貸款組合，以確保我們不會過度冒險。我們目前預測的有機貸款成長，是我們根據所觀察到的情況所做的指導。如果出現一些非常非常嚴重的情況或任何導致我們無法像預期那樣進行強有力的承銷的貸款發放結果，那麼很顯然，我們最終會大幅放慢發放速度。所以，我們基本上就是憑著基本的常識來經營業務，做對銀行最有利的事。我的意思是，我們喜歡發展，但我們從來不想為了發展而承擔可能造成的巨額貸款損失。而這恰恰與東西方合作原則相違背。所以我覺得蠻有把握的，雖然我們發布了指導意見，但畢竟這只是指導意見而已。經濟情勢變化時，我們不必堅持這樣做。因此，我們將根據實際情況做出相應調整。坦白說，去年中美關係緊張，情況並非一開始就如此。我們百分之百確信，危機之中總能發現機會。我們也得一步一步來。因此，我們預期貸款成長速度可能會放緩，並可能低於我們的預期。出乎意料的是，我們的團隊執行得非常出色，最終取得了比預期更好的結果。並不是因為我們刻意推動。事情就是這樣發生的，因為我們不知何故找到了更多機會。所以，2019年的經濟走向如何，誰也說不準。但我們知道的是，我們將非常仔細地審查每一個信貸組合，確保我們所做的是正確的事情。如果機會擺在眼前，他們會允許我們接納更多新客戶，並幫助現有客戶拓展業務，那就這樣吧，我們會做得更多。但如果機會沒有出現，那麼很顯然，我們會放慢腳步。這就是我們。

And as a follow-up to that, have you tightened the lending standards at all over the past couple of quarters or do you plan to over the next couple of quarters?

作為後續問題，您在過去幾季是否收緊了貸款標準？或者您計劃在接下來的幾季收緊貸款標準嗎？

It varies on different specific type of borrowers or specific industries. Again, we adjust our credit underwriting based on the circumstances that we see in the market. And so there's nothing specific that I can share with you, which direction, which particular one that we may tighten up a little bit more here and there. And then those condition also keep changing, depends on the circumstances we are seeing in the next several months.

具體情況因借款人類型或行業而異。我們再次強調，我們會根據市場情況調整信貸審批標準。因此，我沒有什麼具體資訊可以和你們分享，例如我們會在哪個方向上，或是在哪個方面再做一些調整。而這些條件也會不斷變化，取決於未來幾個月的情況。

And ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Dominic Ng for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給吳先生，請他作總結發言。

Thank you. Thank you all again on joining our call. And we're looking forward to speaking to you again in April.

謝謝。再次感謝各位參加我們的電話會議。我們期待四月再次與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，會議到此結束。感謝各位蒞臨今天的報告會。現在您可以斷開線路了。