西星能源 (EVRG) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Evergy Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    您好,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Evergy 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker, Peter Flynn.

    現在我想將會議交給第一位發言者彼得·弗林 (Peter Flynn)。

  • Peter Flynn - Director of Investor Relations

    Peter Flynn - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Corey, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Evergy's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Our webcast slides and supplemental financial information are available on our Investor Relations website at investors.evergy.com. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information.

    謝謝你,科里,大家早安。歡迎參加 Evergy 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我們的網路直播幻燈片和補充財務資訊可在投資者關係網站 investors.evergy.com 取得。今天的討論將包含前瞻性資訊。

  • Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. They also include additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures.

    投影片 2 和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中揭露的內容列出了一些可能導致未來結果與我們的預期有重大差異的因素。它們還包括有關我們的非公認會計準則財務指標的附加資訊。

  • Joining us on today's call are David Campbell, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Bryan Buckler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover first quarter highlights, recent legislative outcomes, provide updates on economic development activities, our 2025 integrated resource plan and regulatory updates. Brian will cover our first quarter results, retail sales trends and our financial outlook. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the Q&A portion of the call.

    參加今天電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 David Campbell 和執行副總裁兼財務長布萊恩‧巴克勒 (Bryan Buckler)。David 將介紹第一季的亮點、最近的立法成果、經濟發展活動的最新情況、我們的 2025 年綜合資源計劃和監管最新情況。布萊恩將介紹我們的第一季業績、零售銷售趨勢和財務前景。其他管理人員也將與我們一起參加會議,並將在電話會議的問答環節中提供服務。

  • I will now turn the call over to David.

    現在我將把電話轉給大衛。

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Pete, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 5. This morning, we reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.54 per share compared to $0.54 per share a year ago. Relative to last year, this quarter's results were driven by recovery of regulated investments, partially offset by lower industrial demand and higher interest and depreciation expense. And while absolute retail demand grew 2.7% and heating degree days increased 18%, the volume benefits from the cold weather did not manifest into margin given declining block pricing in the winter months.

    謝謝,皮特,大家早安。我將從第 5 張投影片開始。今天上午,我們報告第一季調整後每股收益為 0.54 美元,而去年同期為每股 0.54 美元。與去年相比,本季的業績受到監管投資復甦的推動,但被工業需求下降和利息和折舊費用上升部分抵消。儘管絕對零售需求增加了 2.7%,供暖度日數增加了 18%,但由於冬季分段定價下降,寒冷天氣帶來的銷售優勢並未反映在利潤中。

  • We also saw weakness in sales due to scale back activities following two significant heavy snow events as well as a large industrial customer outage caused by an unplanned maintenance shutdown at their refinery. Fortunately, this customer has returned to normal operations this month.

    我們也發現,由於兩次大雪天氣導致活動減少,以及煉油廠意外維護停工導致大量工業客戶停產,銷售出現疲軟。幸好,該客戶本月已恢復正常營業。

  • As we look forward to full year 2025, we continue to see strength in our underlying operations to keep us on track to deliver on our earnings expectations. We are reaffirming our 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.92 per share to $4.12 per share with a midpoint of $4.02 per share. Brian will go into more detail regarding our financial results as part of his remarks.

    展望 2025 年全年,我們將繼續看到基礎營運的強勁表現,使我們能夠實現獲利預期。我們重申 2025 年調整後每股盈餘指引範圍為每股 3.92 美元至每股 4.12 美元,中間值為每股 4.02 美元。布萊恩將在演講中詳細介紹我們的財務表現。

  • The long-term outlook for our business is as strong as it has been in decades, bolstered by strong demand from large new customers, one of the most robust customer pipelines in the industry and constructive regulatory frameworks and supportive legislation in both Kansas and Missouri. We are reaffirming our long-term earnings growth target of 4% to 6% through 2029 based on the 2025 midpoint of $4.02 per share. From 2026 to 2029, we anticipate being in the top half of this guidance range relative to the 2025 baseline with significant additional tailwinds from potential large new customers and investments to serve them.

    我們業務的長期前景與幾十年來一樣強勁,這得益於大型新客戶的強勁需求、業內最強大的客戶管道之一以及堪薩斯州和密蘇裡州建設性的監管框架和支持性立法。我們重申我們的長期獲利成長目標,以 2025 年每股 4.02 美元的中點為基礎,到 2029 年實現 4% 至 6% 的成長。從 2026 年到 2029 年,我們預計相對於 2025 年基準,我們的業績將處於該指導範圍的上半部分,並受到來自潛在的大型新客戶和服務投資的巨大額外推動。

  • Moving to operations. Our teams drove solid performance in the first quarter. Our average duration and frequency, as measured by SAIDI and SAIFI are performing favorably relative to targets. Our generation team achieved strong availability and ran well through extreme weather, including the blizzard in early January and record-breaking cold over consecutive days in late February.

    轉向營運。我們的團隊在第一季表現穩健。根據 SAIDI 和 SAIFI 的衡量,我們的平均持續時間和頻率相對於目標表現良好。我們的發電團隊實現了高可用性,並在極端天氣下運作良好,包括 1 月初的暴風雪和 2 月底連續幾天的破紀錄低溫。

  • The latter cold spell drove a new winter peak load record of over 48 gigawatts in the Southwest Power Pool surpassing the previous record that was set in December of 2022. These outcomes demonstrate the benefits and need for our continued investment in energy infrastructure, including grid modernization projects -- grid monetization projects and new dispatchable generation. I'd like to thank all of our frontline employees for their unwavering dedication and hard work in maintaining the reliability of our system and keeping the lights on for our customers.

    後一輪寒流推動西南電力聯盟冬季高峰負荷創下 48 吉瓦的新紀錄,超過了 2022 年 12 月創下的紀錄。這些成果證明了我們繼續投資能源基礎設施(包括電網現代化專案-電網貨幣化專案和新的可調度發電)的好處和必要性。我要感謝我們所有的第一線員工,感謝他們堅定不移的奉獻和辛勤工作,維護了我們系統的可靠性,並為我們的客戶提供了光明。

  • On the legislative front, constructive bills were passed in both Kansas and Missouri that enhance our strong regulatory frameworks and further enable infrastructure investment to drive growth and prosperity for our region. On Slide 6, we highlight recent legislation that will empower growth and investment in our region and firmly position Kansas and Missouri as premier destinations for new advanced manufacturing facilities and data centers.

    在立法方面,堪薩斯州和密蘇裡州都通過了建設性的法案,加強了我們強有力的監管框架,並進一步使基礎設施投資能夠推動我們地區的成長和繁榮。在第 6 張投影片上,我們重點介紹了最近的立法,這些立法將促進我們地區的成長和投資,並牢固地將堪薩斯州和密蘇裡州定位為新的先進製造設施和資料中心的首選目的地。

  • These outcomes are the product of broad-based alignment between Evergy, the governor's offices, state legislators, our regulatory commissions and key stakeholders, as well as our shared commitment to seize on the growth opportunities ahead of us for our customers and communities.

    這些成果是 Evergy、州長辦公室、州立法者、我們的監管委員會和主要利益相關者之間廣泛協調的結果,也是我們共同致力於為我們的客戶和社區抓住未來的成長機會的結果。

  • Constructive regulatory frameworks that enable timely infrastructure investment to meet the needs of both new and existing customers are critical to our success and the bills passed this year in both states as well as last year in Kansas directly advance these priorities.

    建設性的監管框架能夠及時進行基礎設施投資,滿足新舊客戶的需求,這對我們的成功至關重要,今年兩個州以及去年堪薩斯州通過的法案直接推進了這些優先事項。

  • The PISA natural gas CWIP provisions serve to mitigate regulatory lag and support our strong credit profile as we execute on our $17.5 billion capital plan. While data center tax incentive packages bolster the business-friendly environments that Kansas and Missouri are already known for which have been instrumental in attracting new customers. All told, these legislative advancements will attract the investment of major industry players and prove that Kansas and Missouri are top destinations for new business and growth.

    PISA 天然氣 CWIP 條款有助於緩解監管滯後,並在我們執行 175 億美元資本計劃時支持我們強大的信用狀況。而資料中心稅收獎勵計畫則增強了堪薩斯州和密蘇裡州已經聞名的商業友善環境,這對吸引新客戶起到了重要作用。總而言之,這些立法進步將吸引主要行業參與者的投資,並證明堪薩斯州和密蘇裡州是新業務和成長的首選目的地。

  • We'd like to thank our many stakeholders for the engagement and participation that made this possible. For our part, Evergy remains committed to investing to provide safe, affordable and reliable electric service to our 1.7 million existing customers and the new customers we are bringing online. All of our stakeholders stand to benefit from this unprecedented investment opportunity as large new customers helps set out fixed cost over a broader base. Our communities benefit from job creation, development of ancillary business and services, improved economic resiliency with a more diversified industrial base and a larger tax base.

    我們要感謝眾多利害關係人的參與和參與,使這一切成為可能。就我們而言,Evergy 將繼續致力於投資,為我們現有的 170 萬客戶和新客戶提供安全、實惠和可靠的電力服務。我們所有的利害關係人將受益於此前所未有的投資機會,因為大型新客戶有助於在更廣泛的基礎上設定固定成本。我們的社區受益於創造就業機會、輔助業務和服務的發展、經濟彈性的提高、更多樣化的工業基礎和更大的稅基。

  • Slide 7 describes our pipeline in greater detail. As I just described, we are well positioned to continue to track our economic development. Relative to our size, our backlog of growth opportunities is one of the most robust in the country, reflecting the competitiveness and vitality of our region. Of course, the environment for new economic development projects is competitive, and we do not expect to win all projects in the queue.

    幻燈片 7 更詳細地描述了我們的管道。正如我剛才所描述的,我們已準備好繼續推動經濟發展。相對於我們的規模,我們積壓的成長機會是全國最強勁的之一,反映了我們地區的競爭力和活力。當然,新經濟發展項目的環境是競爭性的,我們不期望贏得排隊的所有項目。

  • Since our fourth quarter call, our pipeline has expanded by 1 gigawatt to 12.2 gigawatt. We have also moved 300 megawatts out of the finalizing agreements category and into the active -- actively building category. This reflects the expansion of the data center project in Missouri, and we expect this load to ramp beginning in 2030. This customer has signed agreements, and we are actively building on the site.

    自第四季電話會議以來,我們的管道已擴大 1 千兆瓦,達到 12.2 千兆瓦。我們也將 300 兆瓦從最終協議類別移至主動建置類別。這反映了密蘇裡州資料中心計畫的擴張,我們預計這一負荷將從 2030 年開始增加。該客戶已簽訂協議,我們正在現場積極建造。

  • We are in final stages of negotiation with two large customers for two data center projects representing 1.3 gigawatts of load. One of these customers is evaluating our Kansas service territory and the other, an existing data center customer is evaluating expansion in Missouri. We are very excited about the prospects of serving these new projects and bringing economic development to our communities. Both customers remain on track to share announcements regarding their plans later this year.

    我們正與兩家大客戶就兩個負載 1.3 千兆瓦的資料中心專案進行最後談判階段。其中一位客戶正在評估我們的堪薩斯州服務區域,另一位現有資料中心客戶正在評估在密蘇裡州的擴張。我們對服務這些新項目並為我們的社區帶來經濟發展的前景感到非常興奮。兩家客戶都計劃在今年稍後公佈各自的計劃。

  • Subject to final agreements and project announcements, we expect to begin to see an impact on our demand growth from these customers in 2027 and 2028 and into the next decade. Brian will cover this demand profile in more detail as part of his remarks.

    根據最終協議和專案公告,我們預計將在 2027 年、2028 年以及未來十年開始看到這些客戶對我們的需求成長產生影響。布萊恩將在演講中更詳細地介紹這項需求概況。

  • We also remain in advanced discussions with customers whose load would represent approximately 3 gigawatts. While these customer projects are not as far along as the others in the pipeline that I've described, they have acquired land or land rights, presented a site plan and in some cases, signed letters of agreement to advance the evaluation process.

    我們也與負載約 3 千兆瓦的客戶保持深入的討論。雖然這些客戶專案不像我所描述的其他專案那樣進展順利,但他們已經獲得了土地或土地權,提交了場地規劃,在某些情況下還簽署了協議書以推進評估過程。

  • The remaining balance of our pipeline, which grew from 6 gigawatts to 7, reflects initial conversations with potential customers. While all of this load may not be addressable, the continued interest, nonetheless demonstrates significant activity and interest in Kansas and Missouri and customers who stand ready if others drop out of the queue.

    我們的剩餘產能從 6 千兆瓦增加到了 7 千兆瓦,這反映了與潛在客戶的初步對話。儘管可能無法解決所有這些負載,但持續的興趣仍然表明堪薩斯州和密蘇裡州的客戶具有重大的活動和興趣,並且他們已經做好了準備以應對其他客戶退出隊列的危險。

  • Moving to Slide 8. We provide a consolidated summary of our 2025 integrated resource plan filings which we submitted in Missouri in March and in Kansas last week. This year's IRP reflects the impact of updating our long-term expected demand growth, including the addition of potential large loads in our finalizing agreements pipeline category as well as other important inputs such as reserve margin requirements of the Southwest Power Pool have changed, construction cost estimates and commodity price workouts.

    移至幻燈片 8。我們提供了 2025 年綜合資源計畫文件的綜合摘要,該文件於 3 月在密蘇裡州提交,上週在堪薩斯州提交。今年的 IRP 反映了更新我們長期預期需求成長的影響,包括在我們的最終協議管道類別中增加潛在的大負荷,以及其他重要輸入,如西南電力庫的儲備保證金要求發生了變化、建設成本估算和商品價格調整。

  • Overall approach reflects an all of the above strategy for new generation development and adds approximately 2.1 gigawatts of new generation from 2025 through 2035 relative to last year's IRP. Earlier this week, we issued an all-source request for proposals to solicit bids for projects through 2032 to identify and help serve these needs. This process will complement our self-developed opportunities.

    整體方法反映了新一代發展的上述所有策略,並且相對於去年的 IRP,從 2025 年到 2035 年將增加約 2.1 千兆瓦的新一代。本週早些時候,我們發布了一份全來源徵求建議書,徵集截至 2032 年的專案投標,以確定並幫助滿足這些需求。這個過程將補充我們自主開發的機會。

  • Our planning process involves identifying the most cost-effective and resilient plan that reliably serves our customers across uncertain future scenarios. We believe that the renewable and natural gas additions, as shown in our IRP, are being planned in a manner that will allow Evergy to take advantage of best-in-class efficiency and support economic development in our service territory, while at the same time helping to minimize the impact on affordability and ensuring that we provide reliable electric service.

    我們的規劃過程包括確定最具成本效益和彈性的計劃,以便在未來不確定的情況下可靠地為我們的客戶提供服務。我們相信,正如我們的 IRP 所示,可再生能源和天然氣的增加正在以一種允許 Evergy 利用一流的效率並支持我們服務區域內的經濟發展的方式進行規劃,同時幫助最大限度地減少對可負擔性的影響並確保我們提供可靠的電力服務。

  • You'll also note that our preferred plan delays the retirement of certain facilities and factors in potential conversions to natural gas. While there are risks and uncertainties for these plants given their age, the limited availability of replacement parts, and potential future investment requirements to maintain reliability, we are committed to a flexible approach that best serves our customers.

    您還會注意到,我們的首選計劃推遲了某些設施的退役,並考慮了向天然氣的潛在轉換。雖然這些工廠由於其使用年限、替換零件的有限性以及維持可靠性的潛在未來投資要求而存在風險和不確定性,但我們致力於採取靈活的方式來為客戶提供最好的服務。

  • Evergy has managed our generation fleet to operate efficiently, meet environmental standards and be available when called upon. The ultimate goal of our IRP is to ensure reliability and affordability for our customers as we advance a balanced all of the above generation portfolio. This view is reflected in the slide, which includes solar, wind, batteries and natural gas.

    Evergy 管理我們的發電機組高效運行,滿足環境標準並隨時待命。我們的 IRP 的最終目標是確保客戶的可靠性和可負擔性,同時我們推進平衡的上述所有發電組合。幻燈片中體現了這一觀點,其中包括太陽能、風能、電池和天然氣。

  • Moving to Slide 9, I'll provide a brief update on our regulatory priorities and activities in Kansas and Missouri. On the Kansas side, we continue to work through our pending Kansas Central rate case. The procedural schedule calls for intervenor testimony by June 6, followed by rebuttal testimony on July 3. Settlement conferences will be held on July 8 and July 9 with hearings commencing on July 21.

    前往投影片 9,我將簡要介紹我們在堪薩斯州和密蘇裡州的監管重點和活動。在堪薩斯州方面,我們繼續處理懸而未決的堪薩斯中央利率案件。程序安排要求在 6 月 6 日之前提供介入證詞,然後在 7 月 3 日提供反駁證詞。和解會議將於 7 月 8 日和 7 月 9 日舉行,聽證會將於 7 月 21 日開始。

  • We look forward to working with our regulators and stakeholders over the coming months to achieve a constructive outcome for our Kansas Central customers. As a reminder, Kansas rate case is run on an 8-month clock and we anticipate final resolution in late September.

    我們期待在未來幾個月與我們的監管機構和利益相關者合作,為我們的堪薩斯中央客戶取得建設性的成果。提醒一下,堪薩斯州利率案件的審理週期為 8 個月,我們預計最終解決方案將於 9 月底出爐。

  • We also have pending requests before the KCC for predetermination on partial ownership of two combined cycle natural gas plants as well as a new solar farm. We are pleased to reach settlement agreements for these three projects. We appreciate the dialogue and participation from KCC staff, industrial consumers and other stakeholders all as part of the process. We anticipate a commission order by July 7.

    我們也正在等待 KCC 就兩座聯合循環天然氣廠和一座新太陽能發電場的部分所有權進行預先確定的請求。我們很高興就這三個項目達成和解協議。我們感謝 KCC 員工、工業消費者和其他利害關係人在這過程中的對話和參與。我們預計 7 月 7 日前會收到委託訂單。

  • The KCC recently approved a procedural schedule for our request to approve a large load power service tariff that would apply to prospective data center customers. We believe the tariff allows for adequate cost recovery associated with large new loads while being competitive with rates in neighboring states. The procedural schedule calls for an early settlement offer by June 20, settlement discussions on June 23 and the settlement agreement due by July 3. If an early settlement is not reached, there will be opportunities for additional discussions in the fall ahead of hearing starting on October 8.

    KCC 最近批准了我們提出的批准適用於潛在資料中心客戶的大負載電力服務關稅的程序時間表。我們相信,該關稅能夠充分收回與大量新負荷相關的成本,同時與鄰近各州的關稅具有競爭力。程序安排要求在 6 月 20 日之前提出早期和解要約,在 6 月 23 日進行和解討論,並在 7 月 3 日之前達成和解協議。如果未能達成早期和解,則在 10 月 8 日開始的聽證會之前,秋季還有機會進行進一步討論。

  • Pivoting to Missouri, we have pending requests for certificates of convenience and necessity, or CCNs related to two solar farms' partial ownership and two combined cycle natural gas units and full ownership of a simple cycle natural gas plant. In April, the Missouri Public Service Commission staff recommended approval of construction for all of these facilities with certain conditions.

    轉向密蘇裡州,我們有待處理的便利和必要證書請求,或與兩個太陽能發電場的部分所有權和兩個聯合循環天然氣裝置以及一個簡單循環天然氣廠的全部所有權有關的 CCN。今年 4 月,密蘇裡州公共服務委員會工作人員建議在一定條件下批准建造所有這些設施。

  • We believe these projects, which are part of our IRP for Missouri, form a cost-effective package of reliable energy solutions for our customers and demonstrate alignment with the Missouri Public Service Commission's interest in securing additional generation resources from Missouri utilities. For both the solar and gas projects, settlement conferences began on May 22, followed by hearings for solar on May 27 and natural gas on May 29.

    我們相信,這些項目是我們密蘇裡州綜合資源計劃 (IRP) 的一部分,為我們的客戶提供了一套經濟高效的可靠能源解決方案,並且符合密蘇裡州公共服務委員會從密蘇裡州公用事業公司獲取額外發電資源的利益。對於太陽能和天然氣項目,和解會議於 5 月 22 日開始,隨後於 5 月 27 日舉行太陽能聽證會,5 月 29 日舉行天然氣聽證會。

  • Similar to Kansas, in February, we filed a request in Missouri to approve a large load power service tariff. Parties proposed a joint procedural schedule that would call for intervener rebuttal testimony by July 25 and a settlement conference on September 23 and hearings from September 29 to October 3. We're also working with Missouri stakeholders to have advanced settlement discussions similar to the Kansas schedule.

    與堪薩斯州類似,今年二月,我們在密蘇裡州提交了一份申請,要求批准大負荷電力服務關稅。各方提出了一項聯合程序時間表,要求在 7 月 25 日之前進行介入者反駁證詞,在 9 月 23 日舉行和解會議,並在 9 月 29 日至 10 月 3 日舉行聽證會。我們也與密蘇裡州的利益相關者合作,進行類似堪薩斯州時間表的提前和解討論。

  • I'll conclude my remarks with Slide 10, which highlights the core tenets of our strategy. Our efforts to enhance affordability have yielded significant progress in improving regional rate competitiveness over the past few years. Our strategic plan is designed to sustain this momentum by keeping our long-term rate trajectory in line with the rate of inflation while still investing in infrastructure to support growth across our region.

    我將以第 10 張投影片結束我的發言,該投影片重點介紹了我們策略的核心原則。過去幾年來,我們為提高負擔能力所做的努力在提高區域利率競爭力方面取得了重大進展。我們的策略計畫旨在透過保持長期利率軌跡與通貨膨脹率保持一致來維持這一勢頭,同時仍投資基礎設施以支持我們整個地區的成長。

  • By prioritizing affordability, we support prosperity within our states and contribute to our robust economic development pipeline. Ensuring reliability is also a core element of our strategy as measured by SAIDI, SAIFI, grid resiliency and generation fleet availability. This also includes a focus on metrics relating to customer service, safety in all elements of our operations and infrastructure investment.

    透過優先考慮可負擔性,我們支持各州的繁榮並為我們強勁的經濟發展管道做出貢獻。確保可靠性也是我們策略的核心要素,以 SAIDI、SAIFI、電網彈性和發電機組可用性來衡量。這也包括關注與客戶服務、我們營運的所有要素的安全和基礎設施投資相關的指標。

  • And with respect to sustainability, we continue to advance the transition of our generation fleet as detailed in our 2025 IRP updates. We look forward to continuing to advance a balanced all of the above mix of resource additions over the coming years to support growth and prosperity in our states.

    在永續性方面,我們將繼續推動發電機組的轉型,正如我們在 2025 年 IRP 更新中所述。我們期待在未來幾年繼續推動上述所有資源的均衡組合,以支持我們各州的成長和繁榮。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brian.

    說完這些,我將把電話轉給布萊恩。

  • Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, David. Thank you, Pete, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on Slide 12 with a review of our results for the quarter. For the first quarter of 2025, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $125 million or $0.54 per share compared to $124.7 million or $0.54 per share in the first quarter of 2024.

    謝謝你,大衛。謝謝你,皮特,大家早安。我將從第 12 張投影片開始回顧我們本季的業績。2025 年第一季度,Evergy 的調整後收益為 1.25 億美元,即每股 0.54 美元,而 2024 年第一季的調整後收益為 1.247 億美元,即每股 0.54 美元。

  • As shown on the slide from left to right, the year-over-year drivers are as follows: First, the net impact of retail sales volumes, pricing and weather drove a $0.01 benefit. While colder winter weather produced an 18% increase in heating degree days, the volume benefits from this weather manifested into a limited margin benefit given the declining log pricing, where rates in the winter decline as customer usage enters higher tiers.

    如幻燈片從左到右所示,同比驅動因素如下:首先,零售量、定價和天氣的淨影響帶來了 0.01 美元的收益。雖然寒冷的冬季天氣導致供暖度日數增加了 18%,但考慮到原木價格的下降,這種天氣帶來的數量效益體現為有限的利潤效益,因為隨著客戶使用量進入更高層級,冬季費率會下降。

  • Our results also reflect the roll-off of the leap year impact in 2024, which benefited the prior year by approximately $0.03. Further impacting results was a large unplanned customer outage as I'll speak to shortly. Next, recovery of and return on regulated investments, driven by new retail rates at Evergy Missouri West and FERC regulated investments contributed $0.13 of EPS. Higher depreciation and interest expense due to increased infrastructure investment drove a $0.10 decrease in EPS. And finally, other items negatively impacted results by $0.04.

    我們的業績也反映了2024年閏年的影響,這為上一年帶來了約0.03美元的收益。進一步影響業績的因素是一次大規模的計劃外客戶停電,我稍後會談到。其次,受 Evergy Missouri West 的新零售價格和 FERC 監管投資的推動,監管投資的復甦和回報貢獻了 0.13 美元的每股盈餘。由於基礎設施投資增加導致折舊和利息支出增加,導致每股盈餘下降 0.10 美元。最後,其他項目對結果產生了 0.04 美元的負面影響。

  • Turning to Slide 13. I'll provide more details on our sales trends. On the left-hand side of the screen, you'll see total demand grew 2.7%, while weather normalised demand decreased by 3%. The colder winter weather led to increases in residential and commercial usage, but major snowstorms limited the business activity in January and to some degree in February.

    翻到第 13 張投影片。我將提供有關我們的銷售趨勢的更多詳細資訊。在螢幕左側,您會看到總需求增加了 2.7%,而天氣正常化需求下降了 3%。寒冷的冬季天氣導致住宅和商業用電增加,但大雪限制了 1 月的商業活動,2 月的商業活動也受到一定程度的限制。

  • On the industrial side, as I briefly alluded to, the year-over-year decline in demand was driven primarily by a large industrial customer going offline for most of the first quarter due to a temporary unplanned maintenance shutdown. Importantly, in April, this customer began to resume operations, and we expect them to be at normal production levels this month.

    在工業方面,正如我簡要提​​到的,需求同比下降主要是因為一家大型工業客戶由於臨時非計劃維護停工而在第一季度的大部分時間處於離線狀態。重要的是,4月該客戶開始恢復運營,我們預計他們本月的生產水準將恢復正常。

  • While the combination of these factors had an outsized impact on the weather normalized load in the first quarter, we continue to anticipate healthy growth for the balance of the year. Our forecast is supported by strong underlying increases in customer numbers, which were up 1% compared to last year, as well as the expected ramp of Meta and Panasonic in the second half of the year.

    雖然這些因素的綜合作用對第一季的天氣正常化負荷產生了巨大影響,但我們仍然預計今年剩餘時間的負荷將保持健康成長。我們的預測得到了客戶數量的強勁增長(與去年相比增長了 1%)以及 Meta 和松下預計在下半年的增長的支持。

  • As we move to Slide 14, I'd like to discuss year-to-go consideration supporting our 2025 adjusted EPS guidance. With the unusual items I noted earlier, the first quarter was a slower start to the year than anticipated. We have analyzed the balance of the year drivers and without litigation, we would be approximately $0.05 below our 2025 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint. Fortunately, the foundational earnings drivers of the company remains strong, and we anticipate meeting the midpoint of our EPS target with normal weather the rest of the year.

    當我們轉到第 14 張投影片時,我想討論一下支持我們 2025 年調整後每股盈餘指引的年度考量。由於我之前提到的不尋常情況,今年第一季的開局比預期要慢。我們分析了年度驅動因素的平衡,如果沒有訴訟,我們的利潤將比 2025 年調整後的每股收益指導中點低約 0.05 美元。幸運的是,該公司的基本獲利驅動力仍然強勁,我們預計,如果今年剩餘時間天氣正常,我們的每股盈餘將達到目標的中點。

  • There are a few factors that give us confidence in achieving our target. For example, year-to-date, our operational performance, including O&M cost management, has been strong. As we look to the balance of the year, we remain laser-focused on driving cost efficiencies and pulling O&M levers as necessary to achieve our financial targets. Additionally, as obviously described, we anticipate a rebound in weather-normalized demand growth in the third and fourth quarters, which we expect to be supplemented by growth in revenue from recovery of our state and FERC regulated investments.

    有幾個因素讓我們有信心實現我們的目標。例如,今年迄今為止,我們的營運表現(包括營運和維護成本管理)一直很強勁。展望今年的平衡,我們仍將專注於提高成本效率,並在必要時利用 O&M 槓桿來實現我們的財務目標。此外,正如顯而易見的描述,我們預計第三季和第四季天氣正常化的需求成長將出現反彈,我們預計這將透過我們州和聯邦能源管理委員會監管的投資恢復帶來的收入成長來補充。

  • In short, we are committed to executing our plan and achieving our financial goals. Let's now turn to our financing plan on Slide 15. Our projected capital investments over the five years through 2029 stand at $17.5 billion, consistent with our capital plan update we provided on the fourth quarter earnings call. In fact, there's no change in our messaging from the previous quarter with respect to our financing plan through 2029. We anticipate funding our investment prudently targeting an FFO to debt ratio of approximately 15% throughout the forecast period.

    簡而言之,我們致力於執行我們的計劃並實現我們的財務目標。現在讓我們來看看投影片 15 上的融資計畫。我們預計到 2029 年的五年內資本投資為 175 億美元,與我們在第四季財報電話會議上提供的資本計畫更新一致。事實上,就 2029 年的融資計劃而言,我們上一季的資訊沒有變化。我們預計,在整個預測期內,我們的投資資金將以 FFO 與負債比率約為 15% 為目標。

  • Our strong cash flows from operations will be supplemented by an issuance of debt, equity and equity-like instruments. Our forecasted equity issuances across 2026 to 2029 remain at $2.8 billion, and as a reminder, our 2025 guidance does not contemplate new equity issuances this year, and we anticipate roughly $1.2 billion of equity issuances in total across 2026 and 2027 combined.

    我們強勁的經營現金流將透過發行債務、股權和類似股權工具來補充。我們預測 2026 年至 2029 年的股票發行額仍為 28 億美元,提醒一下,我們 2025 年的指引並未考慮今年的新股票發行,我們預計 2026 年和 2027 年合計的股票發行總額約為 12 億美元。

  • As I mentioned during our fourth quarter call, the EPS and financing plan we are sharing with you again today only includes load growth expectations from the first set of large customer additions. We are optimistic that our equity needs will be lower for this $17.5 billion capital plan if additional large customers begin to come online by 2028, which as previously discussed, is becoming increasingly likely.

    正如我在第四季度電話會議上提到的那樣,我們今天再次與您分享的每股收益和融資計劃僅包括第一批大型客戶增加的負載成長預期。我們樂觀地認為,如果到 2028 年有更多大客戶開始上線,那麼這項 175 億美元資本計劃的股權需求將會降低,正如之前所討論的,這種情況越來越有可能。

  • In short, our customer pipeline has a potential to not only increase Evergy's earnings power, but would also provide a substantial benefit to operating cash flow, allowing us to moderate equity issuance in the future, assuming the $17.5 billion capital plan is unchanged. You may soon see us take steps to begin to address our future equity needs. We would expect any equity issuance activity in 2025 to settle no earlier than 2026. These steps will allow us to be nimble in our approach assessing the capital markets.

    簡而言之,我們的客戶管道不僅有可能提高 Evergy 的獲利能力,而且還將為經營現金流帶來實質好處,使我們能夠在未來適度發行股票(假設 175 億美元的資本計劃保持不變)。您很快就會看到我們採取措施開始解決我們未來的股權需求。我們預計 2025 年的任何股票發行活動都不會早於 2026 年完成。這些步驟將使我們能夠靈活地評估資本市場。

  • Turning to Slide 16. Here, we profile our demand growth outlook in tandem with the tremendous large customer opportunities in front of us. As a reminder, our 2% to 3% demand growth forecast through 2029 only reflects large customer announcements to date. We expect a combination of Panasonic, Meta and Google's load ramps to contribute approximately 500 megawatts of new load by 2029, with the balance driving growth into the early 2030s. This is incremental to our traditional base retail planning assumption of 0.5% to 1%.

    翻到第 16 張投影片。在這裡,我們結合我們面前的大量客戶機會來描述我們的需求成長前景。提醒一下,我們對 2029 年 2% 至 3% 的需求成長預測僅反映了迄今為止大型客戶的公告。我們預計,到 2029 年,松下、Meta 和谷歌的負載坡道將貢獻約 500 兆瓦的新負載,而平衡負載將推動 2030 年代初的成長。這比我們傳統的零售計劃基本假設(0.5% 至 1%)有所增加。

  • As David described earlier, both customers in the finalizing agreements category would be additive to 2% to 3% demand growth forecast reflecting approximately 600 megawatts of incremental demand by 2029. This would potentially drive our total retail sales growth to 4% to 5% through 2029 with further additional upside in those years for the next customer pipeline that we have termed to be in the advanced discussion stage.

    正如 David 先前所述,最終達成協議類別中的兩位客戶都將對 2% 至 3% 的需求成長預測產生附加作用,到 2029 年將增加約 600 兆瓦的需求。到 2029 年,這可能會推動我們的零售總額增加 4% 至 5%,並且對於我們稱之為處於高級討論階段的下一批客戶而言,這些年還將具有進一步的上升空間。

  • To step back again and relative to our size, we continue to believe we have one of the most compelling customer growth opportunities in the entire industry that could drive robust growth not just in our 5-year forecast, but into the next decade for Evergy and for the communities we serve.

    退一步來說,相對於我們的規模,我們仍然相信我們擁有整個行業中最引人注目的客戶成長機會之一,這不僅可以推動我們 5 年預測中的強勁增長,而且可以推動 Evergy 和我們服務的社區在未來十年的強勁增長。

  • I'll close on Slide 17 with a recap of our long-term financial expectations. As David stated, Evergy's long-term business outlook is as strong as it's been in decades. We are reaffirming both our adjusted EPS guidance range for 2025 as well as our long-term adjusted EPS growth target of 4% to 6% through 2029. From the baseline midpoint of $4.02 in 2025, we expect to grow in the top half of our 4% to 6% adjusted EPS target range through 2029 with additional tailwinds through this plan including potential additional wins from our large customer pipeline.

    在第 17 張投影片上,我將回顧我們的長期財務預期。正如 David 所說,Evergy 的長期業務前景與幾十年來一樣強勁。我們重申 2025 年調整後每股盈餘指引範圍以及 2029 年長期調整後每股盈餘成長目標 4% 至 6%。從 2025 年 4.02 美元的基線中點開始,我們預計到 2029 年,調整後的 EPS 目標範圍將達到 4% 至 6% 的上半部分,並透過該計劃獲得更多順風,包括來自我們大型客戶管道的潛在額外收益。

  • Our employees remain focused on consistent execution of our customer, operational and financial goals as we advance our strategic objectives of ensuring affordability and reliability in driving a sustainable business model for the long-term prosperity of our customers and our communities.

    我們的員工始終專注於一致地執行我們的客戶、營運和財務目標,同時我們推進我們的策略目標,確保可負擔性和可靠性,推動永續的商業模式,實現客戶和社區的長期繁榮。

  • Thank you for joining us today, and we will now open the call up for your questions.

    感謝您今天加入我們,我們現在開始回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. At this time we will conduct the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first call comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra of Evercore. Your line is open.

    謝謝。此時我們將進行問答環節。(操作員指示)我們的第一通電話來自 Evercore 的 Durgesh Chopra。您的線路已開通。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • Hey team, good morning, thank you for your time.

    嘿,團隊,早安,感謝你們的時間。

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Hey, good morning,

    嘿,早安,

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • Good morning, Dave. Just to start off, a quick clarification on the quarter itself. Brian, you mentioned $0.05 below your expectations, and you mentioned that was a number after some mitigating actions. Maybe just give us what the gross number is? And if my understanding of the $0.05 is accurate?

    早上好,戴夫。首先,我們來簡單澄清一下本季的情況。布萊恩,您提到比預期低 0.05 美元,並且您提到這是採取一些緩解措施後得出的數字。也許只需告訴我們總數是多少?我對 0.05 美元的理解是否準確?

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Durgesh, just to clarify there, the $3.97 I pointed to, which is $0.05 short of the $4.02, that's actually before mitigating items. So that's just our base plan, our base outlook, if you will, for the full year, sitting here today before mitigating items. We're already being in active discussions with our entire officer team to mitigate that $0.05 delta. And we actually fully expect to be at $4.02 for the full year sitting here today.

    是的。Durgesh,我只是想澄清一下,我指出的 3.97 美元比 4.02 美元少 0.05 美元,這實際上是在減免項目之前。所以這只是我們的基本計劃,基本展望,如果你願意的話,對於全年來說,今天我們坐在這裡討論緩解項目之前。我們已經在與整個管理團隊進行積極討論,以減輕這 0.05 美元的差距。事實上,我們今天預計全年股價將達到 4.02 美元。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • Okay. So just to be clear, the first quarter came in $0.05 below where you would have expected it to be. Is that a fair articulation?

    好的。因此需要明確的是,第一季的利潤比預期低 0.05 美元。這是一個公平的表述嗎?

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • That's the way to think about it.

    這就是思考這個問題的方式。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • Thanks. I appreciate that. And then just any color you can share on the timing of the 1.3 gigawatts. Nice to see the 300 megawatts moved into the execution mode here. But just any color you can share on the timing of when those contracts may be signed? And it doesn't sound like this is -- again, just asking more confirmation, but doesn't sound like you're seeing any softness of demand from your customers or just any perspective there given all the Microsoft noise, et cetera.

    謝謝。我很感激。然後,您可以分享有關 1.3 千兆瓦時間的任何顏色。很高興看到 300 兆瓦在這裡進入執行模式。但能否透露一下這些合約的簽署時間?這聽起來不像是——再說一次,只是要求更多的確認,但聽起來你並沒有看到客戶需求有任何疲軟,或者只是從任何角度來看,考慮到微軟的所有噪音等等。

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Great question. We still have tremendous confidence in the discussions we're having, very active discussions and the pipeline has actually expanded. So the folks who stand ready later in the queue if folks drop out, that's robust as ever and we've advanced significant conversations with the folks in the actively building and Finalizing Agreements categories. A lot of investments already been made and direct number, half of those customers may be the paid for [direct your back stopped].

    是的。好問題。我們仍然對我們正在進行的討論充滿信心,討論非常活躍,而且管道實際上已經擴大。因此,如果有人退出,那些在隊列中稍後準備好的人會像以往一樣強大,並且我們已經與積極建設和最終確定協議類別的人進行了重要的對話。已經進行了大量投資,其中一半的客戶可能是付費的[直接把你的背停下來]。

  • I anticipate exact timing, I think it's probably linked to when we finalize the large load power service tariff proceedings, which we do expect to wrap up by year-end but the exact timing is a little dependent on whether we get settlements and following the hearings, but it will likely be right around the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter.

    我預計確切的時間,我認為這可能與我們完成大負荷電力服務關稅程序的時間有關,我們確實預計將在年底前完成,但確切的時間有點取決於我們是否獲得和解以及聽證會的結果,但它很可能是在第三季度末和第四季度左右。

  • And I expect the announcements could precede that but there's a linkage obviously, with finalizing those tariffs. But back to your overall question, very positive discussions. We haven't disclosed all the names of the counterparties, of course. So some of the names have been public in the past because there have been a couple of announcements and those parties continue to show commitment to the underlying strategy that's reflected and very robust interest in our territory. And we continue to take the steps needed to make sure that we can serve them.

    我預計這些聲明可能會先於這些決定發布,但顯然與最終確定這些關稅有關聯。但回到你的整體問題,討論非常積極。當然,我們還沒有透露所有交易對手的名稱。因此,由於過去曾發布過幾份公告,因此一些名字已經公開,並且這些政黨繼續表現出對基本戰略的承諾,這反映出他們對我們領土的濃厚興趣。我們將繼續採取必要措施,確保能夠為他們提供服務。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • Thank you, David. so it's Q3, Q4 after kind of most likely after you finalize these tariff discussions in both states. Understood. Thank you and I'll get back in the queue.

    謝謝你,大衛。所以,最有可能的是,在你們完成兩個州的關稅討論之後,就會是第三季或第四季。明白了。謝謝,我會重新排隊。

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Richardson of Barclays. Your line is open.

    非常感謝。請稍等片刻,回答我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Nathan Richardson。您的線路已開通。

  • Nathan Richardson - Analyst

    Nathan Richardson - Analyst

  • Hey everybody, can you hear me okay?

    嘿大家,你聽得到我說話嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We can. Good morning.

    我們可以。早安.

  • Nathan Richardson - Analyst

    Nathan Richardson - Analyst

  • Good morning. My first question is, so I know you talked a little bit about how increased sales could lead to downward pressure on equity, but I was wondering if you could quantify that at all. If there's a sensitivity every 1% of sales growth is "X" billion dollars of equity or anything along those lines?

    早安.我的第一個問題是,我知道您談到了銷售額增加如何導致股權下行壓力,但我想知道您是否可以量化這一點。如果存在敏感度,那麼每 1% 的銷售成長就意味著「X」億美元的股權或類似的價值?

  • Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey Nathan, good morning, it's Bryan. Yes, thanks for the question. We haven't laid out our exact kind of guidance, if you will, on how much equity issuances could go down with the load growth. But going from the 2% to 3% load expectation that's currently embedded in our 5-year plan to what we think is ultimately going to be more like 4% to 5% as more of these customers sign up and begin operations.

    嘿,內森,早安,我是布萊恩。是的,謝謝你的提問。如果您願意的話,我們還沒有製定出具體的指導方針,說明隨著負載增長,股票發行量會下降多少。但是,隨著越來越多的客戶註冊並開始運營,我們認為負載率最終將從我們五年計劃中目前的 2% 到 3% 上升到 4% 到 5% 左右。

  • And as early as late 2027 and we think they'll get some pretty robust loan growth from them in 2028, 2029. And it's really impactful to your FFO. And as you know, an FFO dollar goes a long way to improving your metrics on FFO to debt. So suffice it to say, it could be hundreds of millions of less equity over that 5 year period, again based on a $17.5 billion capital plan.

    我們認為最早在 2027 年底,他們的貸款將在 2028 年、2029 年實現相當強勁的成長。這對您的 FFO 確實有影響。如您所知,FFO 美元對於改善您的 FFO 與債務指標大有幫助。因此可以這麼說,基於 175 億美元的資本計劃,在這 5 年期間,股權可能會減少數億美元。

  • Nathan Richardson - Analyst

    Nathan Richardson - Analyst

  • Makes sense, thank you. And then one more question. So I saw that there's some increased guidance on the IRP and given that there is clearly some pressure higher on load growth, does the IRP currently tie into the 2% to 3% prior guidance? Or could it absorb some of the incremental megawatts that are popping up in the backlog right now?

    有道理,謝謝。還有一個問題。因此,我看到 IRP 上有一些增加的指導,並且考慮到負載增長顯然存在一些更高的壓力,IRP 目前是否與之前的 2% 到 3% 的指導相符?或者它能否吸收目前積壓的部分增量兆瓦電力?

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • So it's a good question. We've actually, in the latest integrated resource plan filings given how advanced the discussions are in the need to plan ahead, we actually included the customers and the actively building and finalizing agreements categories in the integrated resource plan. And that's one of the drivers why we see the increased resource needs and also some flexing in the retirement time lines and consideration of conversions to natural gas.

    所以這是一個好問題。實際上,在最新的綜合資源計劃文件中,考慮到提前規劃的討論進展情況,我們實際上將客戶以及積極構建和最終確定協議的類別納入了綜合資源計劃中。這就是我們看到資源需求增加的原因之一,也是退役時間表有所調整以及考慮轉換為天然氣的原因之一。

  • And I know that leaves a natural question of, okay, which resources are in our forward financial plan, the $17.5 billion capital plan and which are not. So we actually added a page, full credit to the team in doing that. So Slide 23 in the appendix lays out which resources in our latest integrated resource plan are in the capital plan and which are not yet in the capital plan.

    我知道這自然會引出一個問題:哪些資源包含在我們的未來財務計畫(即 175 億美元的資本計畫)中,哪些不包含。因此我們實際上添加了一個頁面,並將此歸功於團隊。因此,附錄中的投影片 23 列出了我們最新的綜合資源計劃中哪些資源已納入資本計劃,哪些資源尚未納入資本計劃。

  • And consistent with our overall approach of sticking with the demand growth forecast of 2% to 3% we do see real opportunities, just as Brian described on incremental load, we'll also see the incremental resources we expect to have in the mix to serve these customers. So those will be part and parcel as we give updates as customers make their announcements.

    與我們堅持 2% 至 3% 的需求成長預測的總體方針一致,我們確實看到了真正的機會,正如 Brian 在增量負載上所描述的那樣,我們還將看到我們期望在組合中為服務這些客戶提供服務的增量資源。因此,當我們在客戶發佈公告時提供更新時,這些將成為其中不可或缺的一部分。

  • Nathan Richardson - Analyst

    Nathan Richardson - Analyst

  • Got it that makes a lot of sense. That's all I had. Thank you everybody.

    我明白了,這很有道理。這就是我所擁有的一切。謝謝大家。

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much. One moment for our next question.

    非常感謝。請稍等片刻,回答我們的下一個問題。

  • Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller at Morningstar. Your line is open.

    我們的下一個問題來自晨星公司的崔維斯米勒。您的線路已開通。

  • Travis Miller - Analyst

    Travis Miller - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning.

    謝謝。早安.

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning Travis.

    早上好,崔維斯。

  • Travis Miller - Analyst

    Travis Miller - Analyst

  • Just wanted to clarify something. So the 300 megawatts that you were talking about that went in the construction, I suppose. And then ramping your expectation in 2030, is that the typical time line that you're seeing among either large load customers or even specifically data center customers and kind of 4-year type of build and ramp?

    只是想澄清一些事情。所以我想,您所說的 300 兆瓦已經用於建設了。然後,您對 2030 年的預期是,這是您在大負載客戶或甚至特定的資料中心客戶中看到的典型時間線,以及 4 年的建造和提升時間嗎?

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • I think the -- when you see both the actively building and finalizing agreements category, we try to lay out in both how much of the total megawatts will we see through '29 and then how much are coming online after '29. You'll see in both categories, it's 1.1 gigawatts in the actively building category, about 500 megawatts that we expect through 2029 up to 500 megawatts through 2029 is what we expect in those categories, obviously, more further along.

    我認為 - 當您看到積極建設和最終確定協議類別時,我們會嘗試列出到 29 年我們將看到的總兆瓦數以及 29 年之後將有多少兆瓦上線。您將看到,在兩個類別中,在建類別中為 1.1 千兆瓦,我們預計到 2029 年將達到約 500 兆瓦,到 2029 年,我們對這些類別的預期是 500 兆瓦,顯然,未來還會更多。

  • And finalizing agreements categories, obviously, we're in advanced discussions there as well, 600 megawatts by 2029. So I think -- there are obviously still extremely large customers, but it is reasonably typical to see a ramp for these folks over time. So I described the shifting in the categories partly reflection and expansion probably when they expect that to come online. But the degree of conviction, the level of discussion, the amount of work underway is why we shifted in the actively building category.

    至於最終確定協議類別,顯然我們也正在就此進行深入討論,到 2029 年將達到 600 兆瓦。所以我認為——顯然仍然有非常大的客戶,但隨著時間的推移,這些客戶的數量增加是相當正常的。因此,我描述了類別的轉變,部分是反映和擴展,可能當他們期望它上線時。但信念的程度、討論的水平、正在進行的工作的數量是我們轉向積極建設類別的原因。

  • But that mix is pretty similar across those two groups as you saw by '29 versus ramping up after the '29 time period.

    但如您所見,這兩個群體的組合在 29 年左右非常相似,而在 29 年後則有所增加。

  • Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • And I might just add a little bit to that. On the Slide 7 that shows the advanced discussions of 2.9 gigawatts. Some of that load or some of that customer peak demand could start impacting our load as early as late '27, certainly by '28, 2029. So I just wanted -- that maybe gives you a feel too that even some of our deeper parts of our pipeline could turn into load growth here in the 5-year plan.

    我可能還會對此做一點補充。幻燈片 7 展示了 2.9 千兆瓦的深入討論。部分負載或部分客戶高峰需求可能最早在 2027 年底開始影響我們的負荷,肯定是在 2028 年或 2029 年。所以我只是想——這也許也能讓你感覺到,在五年計劃中,我們管道的一些較深部分也可能轉化為負荷增長。

  • Travis Miller - Analyst

    Travis Miller - Analyst

  • Okay. So kind of staggered across different customers over that time period. Okay. That makes sense. And then just another clarification.

    好的。因此在那段時間內,不同客戶的情況有所不同。好的。這很有道理。然後再澄清一下。

  • On the residential demands, the weather-adjusted demand decline. Can you go over that again or explain what happens in that residential category, if I missed that?

    在住宅需求方面,受天氣影響,需求下降。如果我錯過了,您能再講一遍或解釋一下住宅類別中發生了什麼嗎?

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, it's a good question. I'll ask Brian to go into later. and I'm a big fan of the weather-adjusted analysis, but when weather gets extreme, it can become a little -- there's a little bit of art in the science if you will. So you'll see that the overall residential demand was up 8%, weather adjusted down 3%. So it's a little bit hard in what that split is.

    是的,這是個好問題。我稍後會請布萊恩詳細說明。我非常喜歡根據天氣進行調整的分析,但當天氣變得極端時,它可能會變得有點——如果你願意的話,科學中可以包含一點藝術。因此,您會發現整體住宅需求上漲了 8%,而天氣因素則下降了 3%。因此,這種分裂有點難以解決。

  • So I don't -- we're not reading if Brian mentioned on the total number of customers went up. So we don't think there's something systematic going on there. But it's something that we'll track. We've had robust growth in the residential side last couple of years. So I think it's a little bit in the art and science, it's my personal view. And they found that we did side, and this is something that is not true in all jurisdictions.

    所以我不知道——我們不知道 Brian 是否提到顧客總數有所增加。因此我們認為那裡沒有發生系統性的事情。但我們會追蹤它。過去幾年,我們的住宅業務取得了強勁成長。所以我認為這有點藝術和科學,這是我的個人觀點。他們發現我們確實站在了一邊,但這種情況並不是所有司法管轄區都是如此。

  • Frankly, my past history was a little bit different, but the block pricing phenomenon is real [aside] in one of our biggest residential groups is in Missouri Metro. And once you get to the highest levels of the usage, rates dropped by 45% so the declining phenomenon of pricing in the winter is real. It's actually the inverse in the summer. It doesn't go up by nearly that percentage, but actually goes up a little bit as you can see more.

    坦白說,我過去的歷史有點不同,但區塊定價現象確實存在,在我們最大的住宅區之一,即密蘇里大都會區。一旦達到使用率最高水平,費率就會下降 45%,因此冬季價格下降的現像是真實存在的。夏天的情況其實正好相反。它並沒有上升那麼多百分比,但實際上上升了一點點,因為你可以看到更多。

  • So that's the dynamic that happened. Anyone who has kids in the school systems in the greater Kansas City area knows that they had a couple of full weeks when they basically didn't have their kids in schools. That had some impact on commercial activity and some industrial. So that's an unusual quarter in the amount of snow impacts on some of the underlying economic activity and then the concentration in residential that was mitigated by the block pricing.

    這就是發生的動態。任何在堪薩斯城大區學校系統中上學的人都知道,他們的孩子基本上已經整整幾個星期都沒有去學校。這對商業活動和一些工業產生了一定的影響。因此,這是一個不尋常的季度,降雪量對一些基礎經濟活動產生了影響,而住宅區的降雪集中影響則透過分段定價得到緩解。

  • Brian, anything you'd add on that?

    Brian,您對此還有什麼補充嗎?

  • Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • No, that's perfect. Maybe just briefly, I was thinking about this some more yesterday, Travis. And when you look at a rolling 12 months, you get a better feel for trends, real trends in residential and commercial, in particular. Residential is up 1.2% on a weather-normalized basis over a rolling 12-month period and commercial is up nearly 1.5% over a rolling 12-month period. So want you to have that as well. This kind of shows the overall economic strength and strength in the growth of residential numbers actually here in Kansas.

    不,那太完美了。也許只是簡單地說一下,昨天我還在考慮這個問題,崔維斯。當你回顧過去 12 個月時,你會更了解趨勢,尤其是住宅和商業的實際趨勢。住宅用電在連續 12 個月內按天氣標準化計算上漲 1.2%,商業用電連續 12 個月上漲近 1.5%。所以希望你也能擁有它。這實際上顯示了堪薩斯州的整體經濟實力和居民數量成長實力。

  • Travis Miller - Analyst

    Travis Miller - Analyst

  • Sure. Okay. I figured your 1Q is always obviously a little bit lower than 3Q certainly. Okay. Well, that's very helpful. I appreciate all the details. Thank you.

    當然。好的。我認為你的 1Q 總是明顯比 3Q 略低一點。好的。嗯,這很有幫助。我感謝所有細節。謝謝。

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, thank.

    謝謝,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • You.

    你。

  • Thank you one moment for our next call.

    感謝您下次來電。

  • Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith. Your line is open.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。您的線路已開通。

  • Unidentified_1

    Unidentified_1

  • Hi, this is Tanner on for Julian. Good morning.

    大家好,我是 Tanner,接替 Julian。早安.

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Unidentified_1

    Unidentified_1

  • You somewhat spoke to this in your smart rennaisance question on the IRP. But kind of drilling in on the coal plant retirement specifically, could you discuss the rationale that went into extending the timing of the retirement specifically with -- regarding the specific dates chosen? Clearly, keeping these plants online provide some room to help, at least in the near term, accommodate and integrate new large customer load even if it's not directly tied. But kind of depending on how things break over the next few years, there is further flexibility to manage these retirement dates?

    您在 IRP 上的智慧復興問題中曾經提到過這一點。但是,具體深入研究燃煤電廠退役問題,您能否討論一下延長退役時間的具體理由—關於選擇的具體日期?顯然,保持這些工廠的線上運作至少在短期內提供了一些空間來幫助容納和整合新的大客戶負載,即使它沒有直接連接。但是,根據未來幾年的情況,是否有進一步的彈性來管理這些退休日期?

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • That's a great question. You heard me comment on that in my remarks. So there's some risks and uncertainties that are higher with older units like these. Once we get into the 2030s, the majority of our coal fleet will be in its 60s, so more than 60 years old. And I think that's a tremendous age for human being because it'll be in that same category.

    這是一個很好的問題。你們在我的發言中聽到了我對此的評論。因此,對於這些老舊的單位來說,存在一些更高的風險和不確定性。一旦進入 2030 年代,我們的大多數煤炭船隊將處於 60 年代的年齡,超過 60 年。我認為這對人類來說是一個了不起的時代,因為它將屬於同一類別。

  • But for coal plants as you get in that phase. And we've made some investments in a number of these, but the units that were identified for retirement are ones that either have potential incremental investment needs for environmental retrofit equipment depending on the status of the EPA rules at the time or they had some maintenance and has been done in light of the expected timeline.

    但對於處於該階段的燃煤電廠來說。我們已經對其中一些進行了投資,但確定退役的單位要么根據當時 EPA 規則的狀態,對環境改造設備有潛在的增量投資需求,要么已經進行了一些維護,並根據預期的時間表完成了維護。

  • Lawrence, which is the unit that's 450 megawatts in total is our oldest unit. Jeffrey Energy Center in Unit 2 is one that, for example, doesn't have an SCR. So there is some flexibility. But as you get over time, the age of the unit, the availability of replacement parts because you have to do dedicated forgings to buying spare parts and the potential incremental investment requirements to maintain reliability and meet standards that could change. There's some flexibility, but we recognize that like an older car, there's only so far long that you can take it.

    勞倫斯機組總功率為 450 兆瓦,是我們最古老的機組。例如,2 號機組的 Jeffrey 能源中心就沒有 SCR。因此具有一定的靈活性。但隨著時間的推移,設備的使用年限會延長,替換零件的可用性也會隨之增加,因為您必須進行專門的鍛造來購買備件,並且需要潛在的增量投資來保持可靠性並滿足可能發生變化的標準。雖然有一定的靈活性,但我們認識到,就像一輛舊車一樣,你能行駛的時間是有限的。

  • So some of this will be responsive to what the rules are that are applicable, of course, on the federal side. But, this flexibility, we think, makes sense. Lawrence is our oldest unit. You see it's a short amount of time that we've deferred in terms of the retirement timeline and even the conversion. But with this reflects our best thinking, but we know that there's a little more uncertainty with some of these older units given their age.

    因此,其中一些將響應聯邦方面適用的規則。但我們認為這種彈性是有意義的。勞倫斯是我們最古老的部隊。您會發現,就退休時間表甚至轉換而言,我們已經推遲了一小段時間。但這反映了我們最好的想法,但我們知道,考慮到這些老舊單位的年齡,它們的不確定性會更大。

  • Unidentified_1

    Unidentified_1

  • Great thanks. And then switching gears, with respect to your ability to pull O&M levers to meet '25 guidance, can you discuss the different buckets you've managed through the end of the year and maybe how to think about the effect that could have in terms of your future optionality available to you in '26 and '27, especially as your new target EPS CAGR accelerates?

    非常感謝。然後換個話題,關於您拉動 O&M 槓桿來滿足 25 年指引的能力,您能否討論一下到今年年底您管理的不同桶,以及如何考慮這對您在 26 年和 27 年可用的未來選擇權可能產生的影響,特別是當您的新目標 EPS CAGR 加速時?

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I think for better words, we, like other companies have a fair bit of experience and you always want to have some flexibility to manage your business and mitigate issues that arise. So $0.05 category is something that our team has demonstrated the ability, if you've seen our cost management in the past years, where there is -- and there's a wide range of levers across the business. So it's from generally involves discretionary activity, third-party spend.

    是的,我認為更好的說法是,我們和其他公司一樣,擁有相當多的經驗,並且總是希望擁有一定的靈活性來管理您的業務並緩解出現的問題。因此,如果您了解我們過去幾年的成本管理情況,您會發現我們的團隊已經展示了 0.05 美元類別的能力,並且在整個業務中存在各種各樣的槓桿。因此,它通常涉及自由裁量活動和第三方支出。

  • We will do what we need to do to make sure we maintain reliability and keep the integrity of our system going. But there's always some levers that you can pull in managing your business. And it's really across all the different parts of our business. And we've got a fair bit of experience with it. I don't think we're unique in that.

    我們將盡一切努力確保系統的可靠性和完整性。但在管理業務時,你總是可以利用一些槓桿。它確實涉及我們業務的各個不同部分。我們對此有相當多的經驗。我認為我們在這方面並不是獨一無二的。

  • I think other companies have that same capability. And it's early in the year. It's a pretty modest amount, still important. So we've got work to do to make sure we get there. But we're confident in our ability to identify that amount given that we're sitting here with still eight months left in the year. So -- and we don't -- I don't think it impacts our ability to hit our future targets or the growth that we see in the future. I want to make sure that we're still spending what we need to, to ensure reliability and serve our customers.

    我認為其他公司也具備同樣的能力。現在才年初。雖然數額不大,但仍然很重要。因此我們必須努力確保能夠實現這一目標。但考慮到今年還剩下八個月,我們有信心確定這個數字。所以——我們不會——我認為這不會影響我們實現未來目標的能力或我們未來看到的成長。我想確保我們仍在投入必要的資金,以確保可靠性並為客戶提供服務。

  • Unidentified_1

    Unidentified_1

  • Great, thank you very much.

    太好了,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much. One moment for our next question.

    非常感謝。請稍等片刻,回答我們的下一個問題。

  • Our next question comes from the line of Paul Cole of Bank of America. Your line is open.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的保羅·科爾。您的線路已開通。

  • Paul Cole - Analyst

    Paul Cole - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to go back, if I could, to the large load tariff disclosures you made around Kansas and Missouri. Can you talk about the spread of parties and interest in these dockets and how important a constructive outcome is to the conversations that you're having with the data center developers and other large load users?

    謝謝。早安.如果可以的話,我想回顧一下您在堪薩斯州和密蘇裡州所做的大額負荷關稅披露。您能否談談各方對這些案卷的興趣和分佈情況,以及建設性成果對於您與資料中心開發人員和其他大負載使用者的對話有多重要?

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • I think it's a great question. Thank you, Paul. It's obviously a very important discussion. We went the route of filing for large load power service tariffs because we think having a dialogue that includes the key parties is really important. These are very large new customers.

    我認為這是一個很好的問題。謝謝你,保羅。這顯然是一次非常重要的討論。我們選擇了申請大負載電力服務電價的途徑,因為我們認為與主要相關方進行對話非常重要。這些都是非常大的新客戶。

  • We think there's a real opportunity here to have a win for the new customers because we have the ability to serve them. We're in a market where we've got competitive rates and the ability to have the transmission generation capacity to serve and the time they need to. At the same time, have a win for our existing customers because we're bringing in large new customers who can really help to spread fixed costs. But they're large enough that we want to have a tariff so that it's a proceeding in which everyone is involved.

    我們認為這是一個贏得新客戶的真正機會,因為我們有能力為他們提供服務。我們處於一個擁有競爭性價格的市場,並且有能力提供所需的輸電發電能力和時間。同時,我們現有的客戶也獲得了利益,因為我們正在引入能夠真正幫助分攤固定成本的大型新客戶。但它們的規模足夠大,因此我們希望制定關稅,以便每個人都能參與其中。

  • Very wide participation in these proceedings in both states, as you would expect, at a high level of dialogue with our large customers, as you would expect, it's been constructive throughout. So we've been very transparent in our approach with those customers. They know exactly what we're trying to achieve, and they continue to have advanced discussions with us. So they know what we're trying to do, where we're trending and we wanted to get ahead of this because we know it's an important element of the process. But they're also solving for availability and can we hit a ramp rate and hit a timeline.

    正如您所期望的那樣,這兩個州都廣泛參與了這些活動,我們與大客戶進行了高水準的對話,正如您所期望的那樣,整個過程都是建設性的。因此,我們對待這些客戶的方式非常透明。他們清楚地知道我們想要實現的目標,並且繼續與我們進行深入的討論。所以他們知道我們在嘗試做什麼、我們的趨勢是什麼,我們希望領先一步,因為我們知道這是這個過程的重要元素。但他們也在解決可用性問題,以及我們能否達到爬坡率並達到時間表。

  • So we've taken the steps and staying on that track while we're having the conversation. So it's -- we still have to get through those proceedings, but we're already in constructive dialogue with parties and you'll obviously get -- see the results later this year, but we feel good about how they're trending.

    因此,我們在對話過程中採取了措施並堅持這一方向。所以,我們仍然需要完成這些程序,但我們已經與各方進行了建設性對話,你顯然會在今年晚些時候看到結果,但我們對它們的趨勢感到滿意。

  • Paul Cole - Analyst

    Paul Cole - Analyst

  • Perfect. And then a quick follow-up, Brian, to some of the comments you made around equity expectations for this year. And can I -- am I understanding correctly when I say that you're not precluding the option of issuing equity this year, but it would be under a mechanism whereby there will be no dilution until 2026?

    完美的。然後,布萊恩,快速跟進您對今年股權預期的一些評論。我可以──我的理解是否正確?您並沒有排除今年發行股票的選擇,而是在一種機制下,直到 2026 年才會稀釋?

  • Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey Paul, good morning. Yes, your understanding is right. Like many of our peers, we may be thoughtful about accessing the market here in 2025 but anything we do would have a forward component to it that settles in 2026 or 2027. And as we've articulated, we have a sizable equity need beginning in '26 and the out years as our capital investment plan increases what's really nice is that we have loan growth that's also accelerating beginning in '26 and those out years.

    嘿,保羅,早安。是的,你的理解是正確的。像許多同行一樣,我們可能會考慮在 2025 年進入市場,但我們所做的任何事情都會具有前瞻性,最終在 2026 年或 2027 年實現。正如我們所表達的,從 26 年開始,隨著我們的資本投資計劃的增加,我們將有相當大的股權需求,真正令人欣喜的是,從 26 年開始,我們的貸款成長也在加速。

  • So the plan, we think, is coming together very nicely, but there will be no dilution from new equity issuances here in 2025.

    因此,我們認為該計劃進展非常順利,但 2025 年的新股發行不會造成稀釋。

  • Paul Cole - Analyst

    Paul Cole - Analyst

  • That's perfect, thank you for clarifying, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝你的澄清,謝謝。

  • Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Bryan Buckler - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Great, have a good day.

    太好了,祝你有美好的一天。

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to David Campbell for closing remarks.

    非常感謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想請戴維·坎貝爾作最後發言。

  • David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    David Campbell - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Cory. Thanks, everyone, on the call, for your interest in Evergy. This concludes our session today. Have a great day.

    謝謝你,科里。感謝電話中各位對 Evergy 的關注。今天的會議到此結束。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

    感謝大家參加今天的會議。這確實結束了程序,您現在可以斷開連接了。祝您有美好的一天。