使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Deb Wasser - Vice President - Investor Relations
Deb Wasser - Vice President - Investor Relations
(audio in progress) We hope you find that this shift helps drive efficiency and transparency in our process, both for us and for all of you.
(音訊進行中) 我們希望您會發現,這項轉變能在我們的流程中提升效率與透明度,對我們以及各位皆然。
Please keep in mind that our remarks today include forward-looking statements related to our financial outlook, our business and operating results, as noted in the shareholder letter posted to our website for your reference.
請注意,我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述,涉及我們的財務展望、業務與營運結果,如同為供您參考而發布於我們網站的股東信中所述。
Our actual results may differ materially. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, some of which are described in today's shareholder letter and our most recent periodic report and which will be updated in future periodic reports that we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them.
我們的實際結果可能會有重大差異。前瞻性陳述涉及風險與不確定性,其中部分已在今日的股東信及我們最近一期的定期報告中說明,並將在我們未來向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的定期報告中更新。我們在本次電話會議中所作的任何前瞻性陳述,均基於我們今日的信念與假設,我們不承擔更新該等陳述的任何義務。
Also during the call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to GAAP financial measures in today's shareholder letter posted on our IR website, along with the replay of this call.
此外,在本次電話會議中,我們將同時呈現 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標;其與 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表已載於今日發布在我們投資人關係(IR)網站的股東信中,並將與本次電話會議的重播一併提供。
With that, I'll turn it over to Kruti.
接下來,我把時間交給 Kruti。
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Thanks, Deb, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I stepped into my first quarter as CEO after more than 15 years at Etsy, with a deep understanding of what makes this marketplace special and a clear view of where we can unlock more of its potential. At our core, Etsy has a differentiated value proposition that remains deeply resonant with buyers and sellers. Our focus is now translating that strength more consistently into the customer experience.
謝謝你,Deb,大家早安。感謝各位加入我們。在 Etsy 超過 15 年後,我在第一季就任執行長,對這個市集之所以特別有深刻理解,也清楚知道我們可以在哪些方面釋放更多潛力。在核心層面,Etsy 擁有差異化的價值主張,仍然深深引起買家與賣家的共鳴。我們現在的重點,是更一致地把這份優勢轉化為客戶體驗。
Over the past year, we've been clear about what needs to change and the priorities that we're executing against to close that gap, namely expanding how and where buyers discover us, connecting them with items that feel personal and relevant and building relationships that go beyond transactions. That's how we drive engagement and frequency and ultimately turn the uniqueness and scale of our marketplace into a lasting advantage. In the first quarter, we saw encouraging signals that this strategy is beginning to take hold.
過去一年,我們已清楚指出需要改變之處,以及為縮小差距而執行的優先事項,亦即擴大買家發現我們的方式與場域、將他們與感覺個人化且相關的商品連結起來,並建立超越交易本身的關係。這就是我們推動參與度與購買頻率的方式,並最終把我們市集的獨特性與規模轉化為持久的優勢。在第一季,我們看到令人鼓舞的訊號,顯示這項策略開始奏效。
All of our key performance indicators came in at or ahead of our expectations with GMS at $2.5 billion, up 5.5% year-over-year for the Etsy Marketplace. Revenue of $631 million on take rate of 25.7% and adjusted EBITDA of $185 million or 29.3% adjusted EBITDA margin.
我們所有關鍵績效指標皆符合或優於預期,Etsy Marketplace 的 GMS 為 25 億美元,年增 5.5%。營收為 6.31 億美元,抽成率(take rate)為 25.7%,調整後 EBITDA 為 1.85 億美元,或調整後 EBITDA 利潤率 29.3%。
And more importantly, we're starting to see early positive changes tied to customer behavior on Etsy. Active buyers grew sequentially for the first time in two years. We delivered year-over-year growth in new buyers and active sellers. GMS per active buyer grew year-over-year for the first time since 2022, and momentum in our mobile app continued to strengthen. These are early indicators, but they matter.
更重要的是,我們開始看到與 Etsy 客戶行為相關的早期正向變化。活躍買家數在兩年來首次出現季增。新買家與活躍賣家皆實現年增。每位活躍買家的 GMS 自 2022 年以來首次年增,而我們行動 App 的動能也持續增強。這些是早期指標,但它們很重要。
They show the marketplace is getting healthier, and we have confidence this will translate into the top line over time because creating real value for buyers and sellers is what ultimately drives value for the marketplace.
它們顯示市集正變得更健康,而我們有信心,隨著時間推移,這將反映在營收端,因為為買家與賣家創造真正價值,最終才是推動市集價值的關鍵。
Let me briefly remind you how we're thinking about the business. Our strategy is built around four priorities: showing up our shoppers discover, matching them with the right inventory, retaining and rewarding our most valuable customers, both buyers and sellers, and amplifying human connection, one of our core differentiators. These aren't independent initiatives. They operate as a system. Discovery and matching bring buyers in and help them find items and shops they love.
我先簡要提醒各位我們如何看待這門業務。我們的策略圍繞四項優先事項:在消費者發現我們的地方出現、將他們與合適的商品庫存配對、留住並回饋我們最有價值的客戶(買家與賣家),以及放大人與人之間的連結——這是我們的核心差異化之一。這些並非彼此獨立的計畫。它們作為一個系統運作。「發現」與「配對」把買家帶進來,並幫助他們找到喜愛的商品與店舖。
Loyalty and human connection give them reasons to come back. We believe that investing in this system is how we'll rebuild frequency over time. Today, we're seeing the clearest progress in discovery and matching, where coordinated investments are already driving meaningful impact across both the customer experience and our financial results.
「忠誠度」與「人際連結」則給他們回來的理由。我們相信,投資這個系統,是我們隨時間重建購買頻率的方式。目前,我們在「發現」與「配對」方面看到最明確的進展;協同一致的投資已在客戶體驗與財務結果兩方面帶來顯著影響。
Our app is the centerpiece of this transformation. It's where personalization, machine learning and direct relationships come together most effectively, and we're seeing that show up in the numbers. App GMS is continuing to significantly outpace non-app growth and now makes up about 47% of total GMS, expanding 240 basis points year-over-year.
我們的 App 是這場轉型的核心。在這裡,個人化、機器學習與直接關係能最有效地結合,而我們也在數據上看到成果。App 的 GMS 持續顯著超越非 App 的成長,目前約占總 GMS 的 47%,年增 240 個基點。
Mobile app GMS was up 11.2% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026 versus up 6.6% last quarter. As we keep improving the app through levers like better personalization, more effectively using our owned marketing channels and increased adoption, we see a clear opportunity to continue to grow app share and drive frequency over time.
2026 年第一季的行動 App GMS 年增 11.2%,相較之下,上季為年增 6.6%。隨著我們透過更佳的個人化、更有效運用自有行銷渠道以及提高採用率等槓桿持續改善 App,我們看到明確機會可持續提升 App 佔比,並隨時間推動購買頻率。
This matters because app users engage more deeply, convert at higher rates and come back more often. It's one of the clearest indicators that our flywheel is starting to turn. When it comes to matching, we talk a lot about search, and that's because Etsy's core job is to help shoppers find things that feel personal, relevant and worth coming back for.
這很重要,因為 App 使用者參與更深、轉換率更高、回訪更頻繁。這是最清楚的指標之一,顯示我們的飛輪開始轉動。在「配對」方面,我們經常談到搜尋,因為 Etsy 的核心任務,是幫助消費者找到感覺個人化、相關且值得再回來購買的商品。
Historically, our systems prioritize what was most likely to convert in the moment, often favoring popular items over the ones that were truly tailored to a specific buyer. We're changing that. We're shifting toward a more personalized, relevance driven approach, powered by machine learning and AI that better understands what a buyer is looking for right now and their taste over time and the vast inventory offered by sellers on Etsy. We're already starting to see positive signals from models that bring these elements together. With early tests showing improvements in add to cart rates and conversion.
過去,我們的系統優先考量當下最可能促成轉換的項目,往往偏向熱門商品,而非真正為特定買家量身打造的商品。我們正在改變這點。我們正轉向更個人化、以相關性驅動的方法,並以機器學習與 AI 為動力,更好地理解買家此刻在找什麼、其長期品味,以及 Etsy 賣家提供的龐大商品庫存。我們已開始從整合這些要素的模型中看到正向訊號。早期測試顯示加入購物車率與轉換率有所提升。
We're also expanding the role of our personalized home feed. In Q1, we introduced AI-generated buyer profiles that help us go beyond the shoppers past activity. With the goal of expanding the categories they explore and inspiring new purchases.
我們也在擴大個人化首頁動態(home feed)的角色。在第一季,我們導入 AI 生成的買家檔案,幫助我們超越消費者過去的行為。目標是擴大他們探索的品類,並啟發新的購買。
And finally, we're strengthening our direct relationships with buyers through own channels. using better timed and more relevant push and e-mail communications to drive higher engagement.
最後,我們也透過自有渠道強化與買家的直接關係,運用時機更恰當且更相關的推播與電子郵件溝通,以帶動更高的參與度。
Turning to loyalty and human connection. Our most valuable buyers and sellers drive a disproportionate share of our marketplace, and we're focused on earning their continued engagement. For buyers, we see an opportunity to both deepen loyalty and retention with our most valuable customers and to nurture those with the potential to become them by making shopping on Etsy easier, more rewarding and giving them more reasons to come back. We believe that long-term loyalty isn't built through a single program or initiative but across every interaction. So our approach spans the full experience.
接著談忠誠度與人際連結。我們最有價值的買家與賣家貢獻了市集中不成比例的份額,我們專注於贏得他們持續的參與。對買家而言,我們看到機會:一方面深化最有價值客戶的忠誠度與留存,另一方面培育那些有潛力成為高價值客戶的人,讓在 Etsy 購物更容易、更有回饋,並給他們更多回來的理由。我們相信,長期忠誠度不是靠單一方案或計畫建立,而是貫穿每一次互動。因此,我們的方法涵蓋完整體驗。
For more personalized recommendations to targeted offers to programs like our Etsy Insider beta.
從更個人化的推薦、到精準的優惠、再到像是 Etsy Insider 測試版等計畫。
We're also moving toward more intentionally serving our highest value buyers. And importantly, we're expanding ownership of our loyalty initiatives across product, engineering, marketing and operations because all of those moments together determine whether a customer chooses to return.
我們也正朝向更有意識地服務我們最高價值的買家。而且重要的是,我們正在擴大由產品、工程、行銷與營運共同承擔忠誠度計畫的責任,因為所有這些時刻加總起來,決定了客戶是否選擇回來。
For sellers, we're looking to reduce friction and enable growth with plans to build on our AI-powered tools to simplify listing and shop management so they can spend more time creating and connecting with buyers. And for both buyers and sellers, we're strengthening trust through improvements to Etsy purchase protection and better support for our top customers.
對賣家而言,我們希望降低摩擦並促進成長,並計畫在我們的 AI 驅動工具基礎上持續打造,簡化上架與商店管理,讓他們能把更多時間投入創作並與買家建立連結。而對買家與賣家雙方而言,我們正透過強化 Etsy 購買保障與為我們的頂級客戶提供更好的支援來提升信任。
The final part of our strategy that I'll discuss today leans into what makes Etsy fundamentally different. Human connection. Buyers come to Etsy not just for what they buy. But for who they buy it from. This is one of our most defensible advantages and one that we haven't fully delivered on.
我今天要談的策略最後一部分,著重於讓 Etsy 從根本上與眾不同之處。人與人的連結。買家來到 Etsy,不只是為了他們買到的商品。更是為了他們向誰購買。這是我們最具防禦性的優勢之一,而我們也尚未完全發揮其價值。
We've begun taking a more structured approach to understanding how seller identity, craftsmanship and stories influence behavior. And we now have early evidence that when we make those things more visible, buyers engage more deeply and make decisions with greater confidence. So you can expect to see us integrating those elements more directly into the core shopping experience this year.
我們已開始以更有架構的方法,理解賣家身分、工藝與故事如何影響行為。而我們現在也有初步證據顯示,當我們讓這些元素更清楚可見時,買家會更深入地參與,並以更高的信心做出決策。因此,您可以期待今年我們會把這些元素更直接地整合進核心購物體驗中。
We are also intentional early movers in agentic, deeply focused on developing integrated experiences. We're encouraged by early engagement and traffic signals from Etsy's integrations with OpenAI, Microsoft and Google. And we recently developed an integrated Etsy app for ChatGPT.
我們也有意識地成為 agentic 領域的早期行動者,並高度專注於開發整合式體驗。我們對 Etsy 與 OpenAI、Microsoft 及 Google 的整合所帶來的早期互動與流量訊號感到鼓舞。我們最近也為 ChatGPT 開發了一個整合式 Etsy 應用程式。
At the same time, we're testing conversational AI experiences directly on Etsy because we see agents as a powerful way to simplify discovery and decision-making for both buyers and sellers, particularly when paired with our own data and insights. In Q1, we built two agents, one focused on helping buyers find the perfect gift and another that brings together insights for sellers to make better decisions, access the right resources and reduce operational friction.
同時,我們也在 Etsy 平台上直接測試對話式 AI 體驗,因為我們將代理(agents)視為一種強大的方式,可為買家與賣家簡化探索與決策流程,尤其是與我們自身的資料與洞察結合時更是如此。在第一季,我們打造了兩個代理:一個專注協助買家找到完美禮物;另一個則整合洞察,協助賣家做出更好的決策、取得合適資源並降低營運摩擦。
These are early examples of how ML and AI can make the marketplace meaningfully better for our customers. Just as importantly, they're allowing us to move faster, building and iterating in weeks, not months, which helps us learn more quickly and drive growth. Stepping back, we've now delivered two consecutive quarters of year-over-year Etsy marketplace growth, and our outlook points to growth again this quarter. But our progress won't always be linear. There's still a lot more work to do.
這些是機器學習與 AI 如何能為我們的客戶實質改善市集體驗的早期例子。同樣重要的是,它們讓我們能更快行動,以週為單位而非以月為單位進行建置與迭代,這有助於我們更快學習並推動成長。回過頭看,我們已連續兩個季度實現 Etsy 市集的年對年成長,而我們的展望也顯示本季將再次成長。但我們的進展不會總是線性的。仍有許多工作要做。
What gives me confidence is not just what we're seeing in our metrics, but what's driving them. We have a clear understanding of how Etsy works at its best. We're rebuilding the marketplace based on that understanding, and we're executing with greater focus and discipline than we have in the past.
讓我有信心的不只是我們在指標上看到的結果,更是驅動這些結果的因素。我們清楚理解 Etsy 在最佳狀態下如何運作。我們正基於這份理解重建市集,並以比過去更高的專注與紀律來執行。
Etsy has always stood for something different, creativity, human connection and meaningful commerce. As technology evolves, we believe these qualities matter more, not less. Our focus now is simple: execute against what we know works, measure progress clearly and build the foundation for durable growth.
Etsy 一直代表著不同的價值:創意、人與人的連結,以及有意義的商業。隨著科技演進,我們相信這些特質只會更重要,而不是更不重要。我們現在的重點很簡單:落實我們知道有效的方法、清楚衡量進展,並為可持續的成長奠定基礎。
With that, I'll turn it over to Lanny.
接下來,我把時間交給 Lanny。
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Kruti. Great to connect with all of you today. As Kruti just described, we've had an encouraging start to the year, and I will discuss some of the drivers of that progress as well as what it means for our outlook going forward. As you review our shareholder letter and 10-Q, please keep in mind that on February 15, we entered into an agreement to sell Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion.
謝謝你,Kruti。很高興今天能與各位交流。如 Kruti 剛才所述,我們今年開局令人鼓舞;我將說明推動這些進展的一些因素,以及這對我們未來展望的意義。在您閱讀我們的致股東信與 10-Q 時,請記得我們已於 2 月 15 日簽訂協議,以 12 億美元將 Depop 出售給 eBay。
We have received regulatory clearance for the transaction in the United States and Germany, and reviews are in progress and on track for other markets, including the UK and Australia. We expect to close the transaction by the end of the third quarter of 2026.
我們已在美國與德國取得該交易的監管核准;其他市場(包括英國與澳洲)的審查正在進行中,且進度符合預期。我們預期將在 2026 年第三季末前完成交易。
Given the pending sale, Etsy's results are presented on a continuing operations basis, while Depop's results are now presented within discontinued operations. I also want to note that Reverb, which we sold in June of last year, is included in Q1 2025 continuing operations, whereas Q1 2026 reflects only the Etsy marketplace. This makes year-over-year continuing operation results not directly comparable, and we have included stand-alone Etsy marketplace comparisons where most relevant in order to provide investors with a more meaningful basis for evaluating our go-forward operations.
鑑於該出售案尚待完成,Etsy 的業績以持續營運(continuing operations)基礎呈列,而 Depop 的業績則改列於終止營運(discontinued operations)之中。我也想指出,我們於去年 6 月出售的 Reverb,仍包含在 2025 年第一季的持續營運中;而 2026 年第一季則僅反映 Etsy 市集。這使得年對年持續營運結果無法直接比較;因此,在最相關之處我們提供了獨立的 Etsy 市集比較,以便為投資人提供更有意義的基礎來評估我們未來的營運表現。
Kruti covered our top KPIs, so I'll provide a bit more color on Etsy Marketplace GMS, which advanced to solid year-over-year growth in the quarter.
Kruti 已涵蓋我們的主要 KPI,因此我將就 Etsy 市集 GMS 補充一些細節;本季 GMS 年對年成長提升至穩健水準。
Q1 '26 Etsy marketplace GMS was up 5.5% year-over-year, which represents a 540 basis points improvement to the GMS growth achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025. On a currency-neutral basis, GMS growth was 3.6%. Progress in both product development and marketing are beginning to translate into underlying improvements across marketplace fundamentals. And we also benefited from foreign exchange tailwinds and softer performance in the prior year comparable period. Our key customer metrics are continuing to move in a healthier direction.
2026 年第一季 Etsy 市集 GMS 年對年成長 5.5%,相較 2025 年第四季所達成的 GMS 成長,改善了 540 個基點。以固定匯率(currency-neutral)計算,GMS 成長為 3.6%。產品開發與行銷兩方面的進展,正開始轉化為市集基本面各項指標的底層改善。我們也受惠於外匯順風,以及去年同期較疲弱的比較基期。我們的關鍵客戶指標持續朝更健康的方向發展。
Q1 '26 trailing 12-month active buyer count was 86.6 million, representing the first quarter of sequential growth in the past two years. Combined gross buyer additions, new plus reactivated were 11.9 million, up 4.8% year-over-year. Encouragingly, GMS per active buyer improved sequentially for the fourth consecutive quarter and grew year-over-year for the first time since 2022, reaching $122 on a trailing 12-month basis.
2026 年第一季過去 12 個月(trailing 12-month)的活躍買家數為 8,660 萬,這是過去兩年來首次出現連續(sequential)成長的季度。買家新增總數(新客加回流/再活躍)為 1,190 萬,年對年成長 4.8%。令人鼓舞的是,每位活躍買家的 GMS 已連續第四個季度呈現連續改善,並且自 2022 年以來首次出現年對年成長;以過去 12 個月計算達到 122 美元。
Purchase frequency remained modestly lower than prior year, while average order value increased year-over-year. Several factors, some of which we expect to be temporary, contributed to higher AOV, including foreign currency exchange tailwinds, the expiration of the de minimis tariff exemption and subsequent seller listing price increases.
購買頻率仍較去年略低,而平均訂單金額(AOV)則年對年上升。多項因素(其中部分我們預期屬於暫時性)推升了 AOV,包括外匯順風、低價免稅(de minimis)關稅豁免到期,以及隨後賣家上調刊登價格。
We anticipate that these benefits and the resulting impact to AOV will moderate as the year progresses. That said, product improvements have also benefited AOV, including changes to our search and discovery algorithms that better surface higher quality, more relevant and differentiated inventory. Repeat buyer and habitual buyer figures, while still down year-over-year, continue to see sequential stabilization.
我們預期隨著年度推進,這些利多及其對 AOV 的影響將趨於緩和。不過,產品改進也對 AOV 有所助益,包括我們對搜尋與探索演算法的調整,使其能更好地呈現品質更高、更相關且更具差異化的商品庫存。重複買家與習慣性買家指標雖仍年對年下滑,但持續呈現連續穩定的跡象。
On the seller front, Q1 '26 was the first period of year-to-year growth in total seller count since we introduced the seller setup fee. Active sellers grew 3.3% to 5.6 million.
在賣家方面,2026 年第一季是我們導入賣家設定費(seller setup fee)以來,總賣家數首次出現年對年成長的期間。活躍賣家成長 3.3% 至 560 萬。
Turning to take rate drivers. Our shareholder letter depicts the primary factors that helped drive our quarterly take rate to 25.7%, up 180 basis points year-over-year. 130 basis points of this increase was due to the impact of the Reverb divestiture last June. Meanwhile, Etsy marketplace take rate expansion was led by Etsy Ads, where we continue to benefit from machine learning-driven improvements to relevance and seller budget pacing. Off-site ads and Etsy Payments also contributed to take rate expansion.
接著談抽成率(take rate)的驅動因素。我們的致股東信說明了推動本季抽成率達到 25.7% 的主要因素,年對年上升 180 個基點;其中 130 個基點的增幅來自去年 6 月 Reverb 出售的影響。同時,Etsy 市集抽成率的擴張主要由 Etsy Ads 帶動;我們持續受惠於機器學習驅動的相關性提升,以及賣家預算投放節奏(budget pacing)的改善。站外廣告(Off-site ads)與 Etsy Payments 也對抽成率擴張有所貢獻。
Although our current strategic priorities center on driving sustainable long-term growth in GMS, we're encouraged by the way investments in ads, payments and services continue to provide durability to Etsy's take rate.
儘管我們目前的策略重點聚焦於推動 GMS 的可持續長期成長,但我們也受到鼓舞,因為在廣告、支付與服務方面的投資,持續為 Etsy 的抽成率(take rate)提供韌性。
We're pleased to be executing against our near-term priorities while improving the ways we work, continuously looking for operational efficiencies and keeping a tight control on expenses. This is visible in Etsy Marketplace operating expenses for the quarter, with product development, marketing and G&A all gaining leverage on a year-over-year basis.
我們很高興在落實短期優先事項的同時,也改善我們的工作方式,持續尋找營運效率並嚴格控管費用。這在本季 Etsy Marketplace 的營運費用上有所體現:產品開發、行銷與一般及行政(G&A)費用皆在年對年基礎上展現槓桿效益。
In product development, modestly higher employee costs were offset by savings in other areas. Marketing leverage was achieved by targeted shifts in portfolio mix to better meet customers where they discover and a continued focus on efficiency. Growth of GMS derived from Etsy's owned marketing channels also supported marketing leverage.
在產品開發方面,員工成本小幅上升被其他領域的節省所抵銷。行銷槓桿效益來自於針對性地調整投資組合配置,以更好地在顧客發現商品的場域觸達他們,並持續聚焦效率。來自 Etsy 自有行銷渠道所帶動的 GMS 成長,也支持了行銷槓桿效益。
Turning to our strong first quarter balance sheet. Etsy held $1.6 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short- and long-term investments at the end of the quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities of continuing operations was $102.5 million. We converted 50% of adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow, more than twice the rate of conversion realized in the year ago quarter. We also repurchased a total of $145 million of stock, which reduced the outstanding share count by approximately 2.7 million shares.
接著談談我們第一季強勁的資產負債表。截至季末,Etsy 持有 16 億美元的現金、約當現金以及短期與長期投資。持續營運的營業活動所提供的淨現金為 1.025 億美元。我們將調整後 EBITDA 的 50% 轉換為自由現金流,轉換率是去年同期的兩倍以上。我們也回購了合計 1.45 億美元的股票,使流通在外股數減少約 270 萬股。
As of March 31, we have $828 million remaining on our current Board-authorized share repurchase programs. We took the opportunity in our shareholder letter to reaffirm and explain our approach to capital structure and capital allocation, which is based on four enduring priorities.
截至 3 月 31 日,我們在目前董事會授權的股票回購計畫下仍有 8.28 億美元的剩餘額度。我們也在致股東信中把握機會重申並說明我們對資本結構與資本配置的做法,其基於四項長期不變的優先事項。
Number one, maintaining financial strength to fully support organic investment in the Etsy marketplace; two, preserving strategic flexibility to selectively pursue opportunities to strengthen our business; three, ensuring we effectively manage our financial commitments; and four, enhancing returns for our equity holders as made possible by our strong free cash flow generation. Given this framework, the pending sale of Depop will allow us to further accelerate the direct return of capital to shareholders via repurchases.
第一,維持財務實力,以充分支持對 Etsy 市集的有機投資;第二,保留策略彈性,以選擇性追求能強化我們業務的機會;第三,確保我們有效管理財務承諾;第四,在我們強勁的自由現金流創造能力所允許的情況下,提升股東報酬。在此架構下,待完成的 Depop 出售將使我們得以透過回購進一步加速向股東直接返還資本。
Turning to our outlook for the Etsy marketplace. We assume that overall macroeconomic factors remain relatively consistent and currency tailwinds moderate. We also note that prior year comparisons will become less favorable as we move through the year. We currently anticipate that Etsy Marketplace second quarter GMS will be between $2.48 billion and $2.53 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 3% to 5% for the quarter. We expect second quarter take rate to be approximately 25.7% and adjusted EBITDA margin to be 27% to 29%.
接著談談我們對 Etsy 市集的展望。我們假設整體總體經濟因素維持相對一致,且匯率順風趨於溫和。我們也注意到,隨著年度推進,去年同期比較基期將變得較不有利。我們目前預期 Etsy Marketplace 第二季 GMS 將介於 24.8 億至 25.3 億美元之間,代表本季年對年成長約 3% 至 5%。我們預期第二季抽成率(take rate)約為 25.7%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 27% 至 29%。
For the full year, we now anticipate that GMS growth will be in the low single-digit range as our outlook for the Etsy marketplace has improved relative to the full year commentary provided in mid-February.
就全年而言,鑑於我們對 Etsy 市集的展望相較於 2 月中旬提供的全年評論有所改善,我們目前預期 GMS 成長將落在低個位數區間。
Our updated full year view incorporates stronger-than-expected first quarter GMS as well as the progress we're making on our growth priorities. We continue to expect year-over-year growth in Etsy GMS in each quarter of 2026. We currently expect full year take rate to be roughly equal to that of the first half of the year, and our full year adjusted EBITDA margin outlook of 28% to 30% remains unchanged. We're pleased to be executing on our plan and delivering better results. And as Kruti stated right upfront, we believe there is significant potential yet to be unlocked.
我們更新後的全年觀點納入了第一季強於預期的 GMS,以及我們在成長優先事項上取得的進展。我們仍預期 2026 年每一季 Etsy 的 GMS 都將呈現年對年成長。我們目前預期全年抽成率大致與上半年相當,而全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率展望 28% 至 30% 維持不變。我們很高興能按計畫執行並交出更好的成果。正如 Kruti 一開始就提到的,我們相信仍有相當大的潛力有待釋放。
And with that, we'll now turn it over to the operator to take your questions.
接下來,我們將把時間交給接線員,開始回答各位的提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Michael Morton, MoffettNathanson.
Michael Morton,MoffettNathanson。
Michael Morton - Equity Analyst
Michael Morton - Equity Analyst
Kruti, I wanted to ask about the most impactful changes you've made to the app. In the letter, you talked about expanding the role of personalized home feed recommendations. And I was curious, is this driving a measurable increase in frequency as you're putting the app in more buyers' hands, like as we know, I think for Etsy, growing frequency is the holy grail. So maybe any leading indicators you're seeing there within the app would be great to hear.
Kruti,我想請教你們對 App 所做的、影響最大的變更。在信中你提到擴大個人化首頁動態推薦的角色。我很好奇,當你們把 App 交到更多買家手上時,這是否正在帶動可衡量的使用頻率提升?因為如我們所知,我想對 Etsy 而言,提高頻率是終極目標。所以若能分享你們在 App 內看到的任何領先指標,會很有幫助。
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Great. Thank you so much for the question. So you're right, we're really focused on the app. This is our highest value platform. As we mentioned, our app users have 40% higher LTV than non-app users, and that's because they visit more, they engage more deeply, they convert at higher rates.
好的。非常感謝你的提問。你說得沒錯,我們確實非常聚焦在 App。這是我們價值最高的平台。如我們提到的,App 使用者的 LTV(終身價值)比非 App 使用者高 40%,原因在於他們造訪更頻繁、互動更深入,且轉換率更高。
And so our focus has really been around making the app much more personalized and a much better discovery jumping off point. And so the work there has been really shifting what we show you in the app home feed from popular inventory to items that are really based on buyer interest that are going to inspire new discovery. And so we're really excited about the work that we've done there and the evolution of that home feed and it's starting to show real traction in engagement.
因此,我們的重點一直在於讓 App 更加個人化,並成為更好的探索起點。我們在這方面的工作,主要是把 App 首頁動態中呈現的內容,從熱門庫存轉向真正基於買家興趣、能啟發新探索的商品。我們對這些工作以及首頁動態的演進感到非常興奮,而且它已開始在互動上展現出明顯的動能。
And so as we talked about in the last call, we've introduced these new model that reflects much deeper buyer understanding. It basically develops a profile of a buyer map to your interest in tastes over time and then maps those interests to inventory so that we can present to you when you first open the app, inventory that clearly connects to your taste, but introduces you to new shopping missions and to discover new categories. And we're excited about the traction that we see there so far. It's definitely delivering deeper engagement and more engagement. And that's really the precursor to greater frequency.
此外,正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的,我們導入了新的模型,能更深入理解買家。它基本上會隨時間建立買家的輪廓,將其對興趣與品味的偏好映射出來,並把這些興趣對應到庫存,讓我們在你首次打開 App 時,就能呈現與你品味明確連結的商品,同時也引導你展開新的購物任務並探索新的品類。我們對目前看到的進展感到振奮。它確實帶來更深度的互動與更多互動。而這正是提升頻率的前置條件。
And so let's talk about frequency for a second. That was kind of the second part of your question. Frequency is really our ultimate goal, and it's what our strategic priorities are designed to work together to drive. We're not seeing it inflected yet because it really requires a full end-to-end experience shift, not a single fix, not a single platform fix. And so maybe just pulling back from the specifics for a second, I want to explain what I mean by this and how it relates to our priorities.
接著我們談一下頻率。這算是你問題的第二部分。頻率確實是我們的最終目標,也是我們策略優先事項彼此協同所要推動的方向。我們目前還沒有看到頻率出現明顯拐點,因為這需要端到端的整體體驗轉變,而不是單一修補,也不是單一平台的修補。因此,先暫時跳脫細節,我想說明我所指的是什麼,以及它如何與我們的優先事項相關。
So the first thing we have to do is show up consistently where our shoppers are with content that feels really relevant in the context to get them to consider and visit Etsy more. Then we meet them and match them with items that are really relevant and personalized to them so that they engage more deeply.
首先,我們必須在消費者所在之處持續穩定地出現,並提供在當下情境中感覺高度相關的內容,讓他們更常把 Etsy 納入考量並造訪。接著,我們要與他們相遇,並把真正相關且個人化的商品配對給他們,讓他們更深入地互動。
And then for all the inventory we show them, we want them to -- we want to consistently highlight what makes that inventory really unique and valuable, really the human touch behind it that gives buyers confidence to purchase more. And then throughout, we have to show our buyers that we know them, that we value them because Etsy is getting better the more they engage with us so that they feel really rewarded for every interaction, and they want to come back again. That's really the flywheel. This is what drives consideration, engagement, conversion, retention and really ultimately frequency.
然後,對於我們展示給他們的所有商品,我們希望能持續凸顯其真正獨特且有價值之處——也就是背後的人性化觸感——以提升買家更有信心購買更多。同時,在整個過程中,我們必須讓買家感受到我們了解他們、重視他們,因為他們與我們互動越多,Etsy 就會變得越好,讓他們在每一次互動中都感到被回饋,並願意再次回來。這就是飛輪效應。這會推動考量、互動、轉換、留存,並最終帶動頻率。
So at this point, we're still in the early stages of driving that consideration and deeper engagement. That deeper engagement is what you're seeing on the app, which we think is a really important early and encouraging sign. But it's going to take time for these changes to compound into sustained frequency and retention.
所以在這個階段,我們仍處於推動這種考量與更深度互動的早期階段。你在 App 上看到的就是那種更深度的互動,我們認為這是一個非常重要、且令人鼓舞的早期訊號。但要讓這些改變累積並轉化為持續的購買頻率與留存,仍需要時間。
Operator
Operator
Trevor Young, Barclays.
Trevor Young,巴克萊。
Trevor Young - Analyst
Trevor Young - Analyst
Kruti, maybe a bigger picture one. Core Etsy has a very healthy take rate for a transactional marketplace. How do you think about the path for take rate here for over, I don't know, maybe three or five years now that ads and payments have been pretty well optimized. Are there new services you could offer buyers or sellers where there's a fair exchange of value, which could push take rate higher? And then on the opposite side, what about opportunities to get a little more surgical on take rate to remove some of the friction on the marketplace that could maybe help drive purchase frequency?
Kruti,或許我想問一個更宏觀的問題。對於交易型市集而言,Etsy 核心業務的抽成率(take rate)非常健康。在廣告與支付已經相當程度優化之後,你如何看待未來(我不知道,可能三到五年)抽成率的發展路徑?是否有新的服務可以提供給買家或賣家,在價值交換公平的前提下,推動抽成率提高?反過來說,在抽成率上是否也有機會做得更精準一些,移除市集中的某些摩擦,從而可能有助於提升購買頻率?
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Thanks for the question. Your question is about take rate, but let's talk about revenue first for a second because often when we talk about take rate, it's about how are we really going to grow revenue. And so the first thing I just want to say is our focus is very much on growing revenue through GMS growth. We think that is the healthiest long-term lever to drive revenue growth. It's by getting more people to buy from Etsy more often.
謝謝你的提問。你的問題是關於抽成率,但我們先談一下營收,因為我們談抽成率時,往往是在討論我們究竟要如何成長營收。所以我首先想說的是,我們的重點非常明確:透過 GMS 成長來帶動營收成長。我們認為這是推動營收成長最健康的長期槓桿。也就是讓更多人更常在 Etsy 上購買。
We think we have a very healthy take rate, and we offer services that are really valuable to our sellers. In the near to medium term, we're going to continue to invest in making those services better and more effective for sellers. And as we do that, we expect to see some modest improvement in take rate. Certainly, over the longer-term, we're open to exploring other opportunities for delivering new services that would be really valuable to our sellers, but that's not the focus right now. The focus is really on growing GMS growth to drive long-term durable revenue growth.
我們認為我們的抽成率非常健康,而且我們提供的服務對賣家確實很有價值。在短期到中期,我們會持續投資,讓這些服務對賣家而言更好、更有效。隨著我們這麼做,我們預期抽成率會有一些溫和的改善。當然,從更長期來看,我們也願意探索其他機會,提供對賣家非常有價值的新服務,但這不是目前的重點。目前的重點確實是推動 GMS 成長,以帶動長期且可持續的營收成長。
Operator
Operator
Nikhil Devnani, Bernstein.
Nikhil Devnani,Bernstein。
Nikhil Devnani - Equity Analyst
Nikhil Devnani - Equity Analyst
I wanted to follow up, Kruti, on a related topic around frequency. The letter talks about inspiring discovery beyond a shopper's immediate intent. So I'm curious what trends you've seen or progress you've seen on cross-category shopping on Etsy and really introducing customers to more use cases and occasions on the platform. If you were to step back and look at the progress made over the past couple of years, anything you can point to with respect to that trend line would be helpful.
Kruti,我想就一個相關主題追問一下,關於頻率。信中提到要在購物者的即時意圖之外,激發探索。因此我很好奇,你們在 Etsy 上看到跨品類購物有哪些趨勢或進展,以及在平台上真正把客戶帶到更多使用情境與場合方面的進展。如果你退一步看過去幾年的進展,有沒有任何可以指出的指標或趨勢線,會很有幫助。
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Look, I think we're in really early days here, but we are seeing encouraging signs from the changes that we're making to the app-home feed in terms of really anchoring on buyers' tastes and interest and using that as a way to introduce them not just to new shopping missions, but to new categories, but certainly very early days. I think more broadly, if you think about our approach to how we're serving buyers, one of the shifts that we've made that you've heard from us recently is that we really understand the buyers think about us for shopping missions that are largely horizontal. So those span across categories.
我認為我們現在真的還在非常早期的階段,但就我們對 App 首頁動態(home feed)所做的改動而言,我們確實看到一些令人鼓舞的訊號:更聚焦在買家的品味與興趣,並以此作為方式,不只是把他們帶到新的購物任務(shopping missions),也帶到新的品類;但確實仍是非常早期。更廣泛地說,如果你看我們服務買家的方式,我們最近也提到過的一個轉變是:我們真正理解到,買家想到我們時,往往是為了那些大多屬於「橫向」的購物任務。也就是跨越多個品類。
And so our approach is really -- has really been to serving those shopping occasion needs more effectively. We think that, that approach is also going to really help us show up in a way that's more relevant to more people more of the time and help them consider different categories that are relevant to a shopping occasion.
因此我們的方法其實是——一直以來都是——更有效地滿足那些購物情境(shopping occasion)的需求。我們認為,這種方法也會真正幫助我們在更多時間、對更多人,以更相關的方式出現,並幫助他們考慮在某個購物情境下相關的不同品類。
Operator
Operator
Maria Ripps, Canaccord.
Maria Ripps,Canaccord。
Maria Ripps - Analyst
Maria Ripps - Analyst
I just wanted to ask about active buyers returning to growth. So as we think about sort of key initiatives there, personalization, the mobile app, those are largest sort of top of funnel drivers. Is there anything that's kind of closer to the lower funnel initiatives that you can talk about? And then more broadly, how should we think about sort of the lag between product improvement and the sustained growth inflection in active buyers?
我想問一下活躍買家回到成長的問題。當我們思考那裡的關鍵舉措時,個人化、行動 App 這些都是最大的漏斗頂端(top of funnel)驅動因素。有沒有什麼比較接近漏斗底端(lower funnel)的舉措可以談談?更廣泛地說,我們應該如何看待產品改善與活躍買家數出現持續成長拐點之間的時間落差?
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
When we think about active buyers, there really are two components. There are the existing recurring repeat users, and they drive most of GMS. And to the second part of your question, all the work we're doing on the product experience, the personalization, even things like customer service and support and trust and safety, all of these are top priorities to build an environment for those existing repeat purchasers that is that has -- they become loyal to -- they become familiar with and we can drive their frequency and engagement.
當我們談活躍買家時,實際上有兩個組成部分。一是既有的、經常回訪的重複使用者,他們貢獻了大部分的 GMS。至於你問題的第二部分,我們在產品體驗、個人化,甚至像客服與支援、信任與安全等方面所做的一切工作,都是最優先事項,目的是為這些既有的重複購買者建立一個環境——他們會對其產生忠誠、變得熟悉——而我們也能推動他們的購買頻率與互動。
In order to get the total buyer pool growing, we have to do more than just serve well the existing buyers. We have to bring in more new buyers and reactivate more prior buyers on Etsy. And that's why in our strategic priorities we're talking about, we have so much focus on showing up where customers are starting their shopping missions.
要讓整體買家池成長,我們不能只把既有買家服務好。我們必須帶來更多新買家,並在 Etsy 上重新喚回更多過去的買家。這也是為什麼在我們的策略優先事項中,我們如此聚焦於在顧客開始其購物任務的地方出現。
And so we're really pleased with the momentum that we've started to see now in the number of gross additions between new and reactivated users. It's been a couple of quarters now of positive year-to-year comparisons there, not only in percentage numbers, but the aggregate numbers of new people coming in today versus a year ago is starting to look better.
因此,我們對於新用戶與重新啟用用戶合計的新增量(gross additions)所開始看到的動能感到非常滿意。在那裡,我們已經連續幾個季度出現正向的年對年比較,不僅是百分比數字,從總量來看,今天進來的新用戶人數相較一年前也開始變得更好。
And that in the long-term is what will really drive along with good retention of the existing buyers, that accelerating growth on the new and reactivated front is what we're seeking.
而從長期來看,這一點——再加上對既有買家的良好留存——我們所追求的就是:在新用戶與重新啟用這一端加速成長。
We've made some changes to our marketing mix to do that. We've been talking about showing up much more strongly in places like social media. We've been talking about making refinements to the way we show up in classic search results. We've been leaning out on the very frontiers of what's happening in agentic commerce to make sure we're showing up there. We've been emphasizing the mobile app, which we know is the way younger demographics shop.
為了做到這點,我們對行銷組合做了一些調整。我們一直在談要在社群媒體等地方更強勢地出現。我們也一直在談要精修我們在傳統搜尋結果中的呈現方式。我們也在代理式商務(agentic commerce)正在發生的最前沿加大投入,以確保我們能在那裡出現。我們也強調行動 App,因為我們知道年輕族群就是用這種方式購物。
And all those things are starting to have an impact, and I think you can see that in the numbers that we're talking about. You get down into the smaller sort of nuanced things. We've talked a little bit about TikTok has been a great channel for us since bringing in a much younger demographic. And I think there's a lot more for us to do in that channel.
而所有這些事情都開始產生影響,我想你也可以從我們提到的數字中看出來。如果再往下看一些更小、更細緻的事情。我們稍微提過,TikTok 一直是對我們很棒的渠道,因為它帶來了更年輕的人口結構。而我認為在這個渠道上,我們還有很多可以做。
On the sort of low funnel social across some of the others, we found that we're not always in social acquiring new users. We might be -- and so we've modified our spending a little bit to really focus on activating new users and bringing back lapsed users. That's been a little bit less at the bottom of the funnel in social, a little bit more at the awareness upper end of the funnel on social. All these things are -- the changes we made today are -- we're going to continue to monitor those and be really disciplined and very ROI-driven and very focused on what you -- the starting point of your question, which is in the long-term, growing the active buyer count on Etsy.
至於在其他一些平台上的漏斗底端社群投放,我們發現我們在社群上不一定總是在獲取新用戶。因此我們稍微調整了支出,更聚焦於啟動新用戶並帶回流失用戶。在社群上,這在漏斗底端的比重稍微降低,在漏斗上端的認知(awareness)比重稍微提高。所有這些——我們今天做出的改變——我們會持續監測,並保持高度紀律、非常以 ROI 為導向,同時非常聚焦於你問題的出發點:長期而言,提升 Etsy 的活躍買家數。
Operator
Operator
Nick Jones, BNP Paribas.
Nick Jones,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。
Nicholas Jones - Analyst
Nicholas Jones - Analyst
Great. I guess maybe one on internal AI at Etsy. If AI is going to kind of unlock bigger kind of more persistent context on your active buyer base, how should we think kind of like where you are in kind of the evolution of being able to build this kind of really rich context on a customer basis to build customization? Is there going to be kind of an impact on expenses as you maybe need to pay for more tokens or something to kind of deploy this to drive conversion higher? So I don't know if that question makes sense, but just curious on kind of where you are, what inning it is in terms of using the technology to maybe drive a more meaningful improvement in conversion.
很好。我想可能有一題關於 Etsy 內部 AI。如果 AI 將能在你們的活躍買家基礎上解鎖更大、也更具持續性的情境脈絡,我們應該如何看待你們目前在演進過程中的位置——也就是在客戶層級建立這種非常豐富的情境脈絡、以打造客製化的能力?當你們可能需要支付更多 token 或類似成本來部署這些功能、以推動更高轉換時,費用面是否會受到影響?所以我不確定這個問題是否說得通,但我只是好奇你們目前在哪個階段、在使用這項技術以帶來更有意義的轉換率提升方面,現在是第幾局(inning)。
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Yes. Great question. Thank you. So first of all, we see just so much exciting opportunity for us to leverage this technology to build a much better, much more personalized experience on Etsy. And the way that we think about it is that we need to bring together a really deep understanding of three things: Our inventory, which, as you know, is very diverse, very unique, very broad. And so we've made a lot of good progress there in terms of richer inventory understanding, leveraging LLMs.
是的。好問題。謝謝。首先,我們看到有非常多令人振奮的機會,讓我們運用這項技術在 Etsy 上打造更好、更個人化的體驗。我們的思考方式是:我們需要把對三件事的深度理解整合起來:第一是我們的庫存(inventory),如你所知,它非常多元、非常獨特、範圍也非常廣。因此我們在更豐富的庫存理解方面已取得不少進展,並運用 LLM。
The second is buyer understanding or understanding our buyers' interest and taste and understanding those over time. That's part of what you were just describing as that richer context that persists. And this is where we're putting a lot of effort and investment right now, developing new models that help us understand about the profile of a buyer's taste. I'd say that we're early here, but making really good progress, mapping that understanding that deeper understanding of our buyers to our inventory.
第二是買家理解,也就是理解我們買家的興趣與品味,並且隨時間推移去理解這些變化。這就是你剛才描述的那種更豐富、可持續的情境脈絡。而這正是我們目前投入大量努力與投資的地方:開發新的模型,幫助我們理解買家品味的輪廓(profile)。我會說我們在這方面仍處於早期,但進展非常不錯,並且正在把對買家更深的理解與我們的庫存做對應與連結。
And then the third piece of this context is understanding your intent in the moment. So our understanding of buyer interest is something that we build over time, your intent is something that is more about in the moment, in a session. And that is really, really critical context to help us marry all of those three things together to provide a really personalized and relevant experience every time you shop on Etsy.
第三個情境脈絡的部分,是理解你當下的意圖(intent)。我們對買家興趣的理解是隨時間建立的;而你的意圖則更偏向當下、在一次使用/瀏覽(session)中的行為。這是非常、非常關鍵的情境脈絡,能幫助我們把這三件事結合起來,讓你每次在 Etsy 購物時都能獲得真正個人化且相關的體驗。
We're still really early days here, but one of the exciting developments that we shared in the shareholder letter in the prerecorded remarks was about the conversational agent that we've just introduced for buyers to help them find gifts. This is a really great example of how we're using this new technology to get a lot more context through a single interaction that, again, then if you think about marrying those three things together can allow us to provide a much, much richer, much more personalized and more effective experience.
我們仍然處於非常早期的階段,但我們在股東信與預錄談話中分享的一項令人興奮的進展,是我們剛為買家推出的對話式代理(conversational agent),用來幫助他們找禮物。這是一個很好的例子,說明我們如何透過一次互動就取得更多情境資訊;再想想把那三件事結合起來,就能讓我們提供更豐富、更個人化、也更有效的體驗。
So I'd say we're at different stages of maturity across all three of these areas, but making really good progress and really excited about the opportunity that they present.
所以我會說,我們在這三個領域的成熟度階段各不相同,但進展非常不錯,也對它們所帶來的機會感到非常興奮。
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
To the sort of final bit of your question about managing tokens and the like, the way we're thinking about it right now is we really want to embrace and experiment with these brand-new tools. And as Kruti said, there are so many applications that we're really trying to stay on our front foot and fund and invest and learn in this area as quickly as we can.
至於你問題最後一部分、關於管理 token 等等,我們目前的想法是:我們真的希望擁抱並試驗這些全新的工具。而如 Kruti 所說,應用場景非常多,我們正努力保持主動,盡可能快速地在這個領域投入資金、投資並學習。
As you know, we will manage the costs, and we will apply that, which hopefully, you recognize we do all the time. We apply a very rigorous ROI discipline. And so the investments we're making in AI and the features that we roll and the costs associated with the compute behind that is all going to be framed with reference to its impact on GMS growth and long-term user growth and frequency growth.
如你所知,我們會管理成本,而且我們會一如既往地這麼做,希望你也認同我們一直如此。我們採用非常嚴謹的投資報酬率(ROI)紀律。因此,我們在 AI 上的投資、我們推出的功能,以及其背後運算(compute)相關的成本,都會以其對 GMS 成長、長期使用者成長與使用頻率成長的影響來衡量與框定。
And we'll manage that with a mind toward long-term profitability as we've done in some of the other realms of our go-to-market.
而我們也會以長期獲利能力為考量來管理這些,就像我們在其他市場推進(go-to-market)領域所做的一樣。
Operator
Operator
Marvin Fong, BTIG.
Marvin Fong,BTIG。
Marvin Fong - Analyst
Marvin Fong - Analyst
I guess I'll ask the obligatory question about consumer health. I know you mentioned in the letter that trends are relatively stable. Is there anything to call out even at a granular level that you're seeing any impact from higher fuel prices? And relatedly, it looks like we're going to have like some fuel surcharges in terms of postage costs. Is that -- do you expect any impact on your seller behavior as they try to manage that cost that's embedded in your guidance?
我想我會問一個例行問題:關於消費者健康狀況。我知道你們在信中提到趨勢相對穩定。即使在更細的層面,你們是否看到較高燃油價格帶來的任何影響、有哪些值得特別指出的?另外,看起來郵資成本可能會出現一些燃油附加費(fuel surcharges)。你們是否預期這會對賣家行為造成任何影響,因為他們會試圖管理這項已被納入你們指引中的成本?
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Thanks. As we said, the consumer environment has remained relatively stable overall. There's been an interesting sort of tension back and forth between some of the softer data and consumer polls and surveys being more soft and concerning. And then the actual hard data that coming through from the consumer has held up.
是的。謝謝。如我們所說,整體而言消費環境仍相對穩定。有一個有趣的拉扯:一些較軟性的數據、消費者民調與調查顯得更疲弱、也更令人擔憂;但實際來自消費者的硬數據表現仍然撐得住。
And that's kind of what we've seen. Our US buyers have been resilient. We've seen broad strength across various household income cohorts. Like others, I think others have said we do see some of the strongest growth in the higher income households, but it's broad-based.
而這大致就是我們所看到的。我們的美國買家一直很有韌性。我們在不同家庭收入族群中都看到廣泛的強勁表現。和其他公司一樣,我想其他人也提過,我們確實看到較高收入家庭的成長最強,但整體是廣泛分布的。
I think if you go a little bit -- trying to go a little bit more granular, one of the ways we look at it is segmenting our GMS by trade lanes. And the US domestic trade lane was the strongest at the start of this year. One thing that's interesting change coming into this year from where we were last year, in the first half of last year, our US import channel or trade lane was growing pretty well. It's probably the fastest-growing channel.
我想如果再更細一點——我們嘗試更細緻地看,其中一種方式是按貿易通道(trade lanes)來切分我們的 GMS。今年年初,美國國內(US domestic)貿易通道最強。有一個有趣的變化是:相較於去年,去年上半年我們的美國進口通道/貿易通道成長相當不錯,可能是成長最快的通道。
That slowed down with the imposition of tariffs. And we returned to positive growth in the US import trade lane in the first quarter of this year, which kind of goes back to the first thing I said, which is the US consumer remains fairly resilient.
但在關稅施加之後,這個通道放緩了。而今年第一季,我們的美國進口貿易通道又回到正成長,這也呼應我一開始說的:美國消費者仍相當有韌性。
Our non-US currency-neutral GMS grew for the first time since 2023. So we're seeing some of that resilience overseas as well. US buyers grew on a trailing 12-month basis in the first quarter from where they were in the fourth quarter and international buyers were about even in the first quarter with where they were in the fourth quarter.
我們的非美國、以固定匯率(currency-neutral)計算的 GMS,自 2023 年以來首次成長。所以我們也看到海外同樣有一些韌性。以過去 12 個月(trailing 12-month)為基礎來看,美國買家在第一季相較第四季有所成長;國際買家在第一季則大致與第四季持平。
So when you try to pull apart the impact of tariffs and the foreign currencies and the tax returns that have been strong this season and the impact of oil prices, netting it all out, it's hard to point to any one thing and that's a stronger comment than the consumers remain pretty resilient, and we remain cautious about the forward outlook.
所以當你試圖拆解關稅、外幣匯率、本季強勁的退稅、以及油價影響時,把所有因素加總抵銷後,很難指向任何單一因素;因此更強的結論是:消費者仍相當有韌性,而我們對未來展望仍保持審慎。
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Just one more thing that I would add a little bit higher level about the macro environment is, look, we're obviously in a period of high macro uncertainty, unpredictability. As Lanny said, we're monitoring consumer confidence closely and the macro environment more broadly. But as we do that, our focus is largely on what we have control over. So there are two things that I think about there.
另外我想再補充一點、從更高層次談宏觀環境:你看,我們顯然正處於宏觀不確定性高、且難以預測的時期。如 Lanny 所說,我們正密切監測消費者信心以及更廣泛的宏觀環境。但在這麼做的同時,我們的重點主要放在我們能掌控的事情上。所以我在這裡想到兩件事。
First is we're focused on building a culture of learning quickly and adapting in real time. We saw this in spades last year with how our team responded to tariffs, to the emergence of agentic commerce, like we're really confident that we can continue to do that.
首先,我們專注於建立一種能夠快速學習並即時調整的文化。去年我們在團隊如何因應關稅、以及代理式商務(agentic commerce)的興起上,充分看到了這一點;我們非常有信心能持續做到。
And then second, we're focused on executing with clarity and discipline on our strategy, and that's about accelerating our product innovation, evolving how we show up for our customers, reinforcing trust through the entire experience. We think that's what's going to really continue to reinforce the resiliency of our marketplace, as Lanny mentioned.
第二,我們專注於以清晰與紀律來執行我們的策略,這包括加速產品創新、演進我們如何為客戶提供服務,並在整個體驗中強化信任。我們認為,正如 Lanny 提到的,這將持續強化我們市集的韌性。
Operator
Operator
Bryan Smilek, J.P. Morgan.
Bryan Smilek,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)。
Bryan Smilek - Analyst
Bryan Smilek - Analyst
Great. Kruti, curious your thoughts overall, we've seen in the market OpenAI potentially pulling away from instant checkout and focusing more on discovery and app SDK integration. As you've launched your app within OpenAI, can you just talk about the initial impact to conversion? I believe last quarter, we had talked about traffic being up multiples of what it was year-on-year, but really AI traffic is still driving more on-platform marketplace conversions. So curious your thoughts there on the shift in strategy by OpenAI.
很好。Kruti,我想聽聽你對整體情況的看法:我們看到市場上 OpenAI 可能正在淡出即時結帳,轉而更聚焦於探索(discovery)以及 App SDK 的整合。你們已在 OpenAI 內推出你們的 app,能否談談對轉換率的初步影響?我記得上季我們談到流量較去年同期成倍成長,但 AI 流量仍在帶動更多站內市集轉換。因此也想聽聽你對 OpenAI 策略轉向的看法。
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Thanks for the question. Just want to clarify the app has not launched yet. But I think overall, big picture, look, we think that shift really reinforces our hypothesis that we continue to think agentic shopping can become a meaningful discovery channel for us over time, but the focus is really discovery. That's reinforced by trends that are really consistent with what we shared with you last time we spoke, which is we continue to see strong traffic growth and high-intent traffic. So that's great, but it's still very, very small. It's a fraction of a percent of our total traffic.
謝謝你的問題。我想先澄清一下:這個 app 還沒有上線。但從整體大方向來看,我們認為這個轉向其實更強化了我們的假設:我們仍然相信,代理式購物(agentic shopping)隨時間推進可以成為對我們有意義的探索渠道,但重點確實在「探索」。這也與我們上次交流時分享的趨勢一致:我們持續看到強勁的流量成長,以及高意圖(high-intent)的流量。這很棒,但規模仍然非常、非常小。它只占我們總流量的不到百分之一的一小部分。
And so again, that reinforces our hypothesis that it could be a high-value discovery channel, but that's where it's most suited, but that's going to take some time. That's over the long-term. The other thing that I'll just say here is we continue to be really focused on early engagement being early movers here. It's very aligned with our priorities. to show up where our shoppers discover.
因此,再次強化了我們的假設:它可能是一個高價值的探索渠道,也最適合用在探索上,但這需要一些時間。這是長期的事情。另外我想補充的是,我們仍然非常專注於在早期就積極參與、成為先行者。這與我們的優先事項高度一致:在購物者進行探索的地方出現。
And we know this is going to be a really rapidly evolving space as we're seeing in real time. Our focus, our commitment is to being where our customers are, so we can learn from that behavior in real time and adapt our experience with them. You see us doing that already.
我們也知道,這會是一個正在快速演進的領域,我們正即時看到這點。我們的重點與承諾,是出現在客戶所在之處,讓我們能即時從他們的行為中學習,並與他們一起調整我們的體驗。你們已經看到我們正在這麼做。
Operator
Operator
Nathan Feather, Morgan Stanley..
Nathan Feather,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)。
Nathan Feather - Analyst
Nathan Feather - Analyst
Encouraging to see the stabilization in individual buyers. And what are you seeing that's allowing that to finally normalize, especially as frequency hasn't yet inflected on the whole? And do you have line of sight to that returning to sequential growth through the year?
很令人鼓舞看到個別買家數的穩定。你們看到是什麼因素讓它終於回到正常,特別是在整體購買頻次尚未明顯回升的情況下?你們是否能掌握到今年內它回到逐季成長的能見度?
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
The activity you're seeing in terms of stabilization on habitual buyers, on repeat buyers and even on frequency and on many of the buyer metrics, I think, is really the fruit of the things we've been focused on strategically that Kruti has talked about and we highlighted in the shareholder letter and frankly, we've talked about for several quarters. I think what you're seeing in the numbers is just starting to see some of the initial early impact of the accumulating effort of last several quarters.
你們看到的活動表現——無論是慣性買家(habitual buyers)、回購買家(repeat buyers),甚至是購買頻次與許多買家指標的穩定——我認為,確實是我們在策略上所聚焦事項的成果,Kruti 也談過,我們在致股東信中也有強調,坦白說,我們已經談了好幾個季度。我認為你們在數字上看到的,是過去幾個季度累積努力所帶來的一些初步早期影響,現在才開始顯現。
One thing I want to point out about like habituals as you look at those, those numbers are still lower year-to-year. They were pretty stable in the first quarter from where they were in the fourth quarter. And I think the next thing that hopefully plays out is stability turns into return to some modest growth and hopefully stronger growth in the long-term as we continue to execute on our strategy. One thing that's important to remember is that the habitual buyer number is -- reflects a certain purchase frequency. And when that number goes down, it's pretty rare that, that habitual buyer has actually left Etsy.
我想指出一點:當你們看慣性買家時,這些數字仍然較去年同期偏低。第一季相較第四季相當穩定。我認為接下來希望看到的是,穩定能轉為回到一些溫和成長,並在我們持續執行策略的過程中,長期帶來更強的成長。有一點很重要要記得:慣性買家的數字——反映的是某個購買頻次。而當這個數字下降時,通常很少是因為那位慣性買家真的離開了 Etsy。
And in fact, they've just kind of fallen below that purchase frequency threshold. And with all the work that we're doing, we hope to bring them back above that threshold, and that's what really will drive that cohort to be a little bit bigger in the future.
事實上,他們只是略微跌破了那個購買頻次門檻。透過我們正在做的所有工作,我們希望把他們帶回到門檻之上,而這才會真正推動該族群在未來變得更大一些。
Operator
Operator
Bernie McTernan, Needham.
Bernie McTernan,Needham。
Bernie McTernan - Analyst
Bernie McTernan - Analyst
Great. Acknowledging all the good work that's going on within the app and double-digit growth on GMS. But I wanted to ask about the non-app. The acceleration sequentially was actually stronger outside the app. So I just want to see what's going on there, whether it's product or whether it's some of those marketing efficiencies that -- in paid search that are driving it.
很好。我們理解你們在 app 內做了很多好工作,且 GMS 有雙位數成長。但我想問的是非 app 端。非 app 端的逐季加速其實更強。所以我想了解那邊發生了什麼,是產品因素,還是付費搜尋(paid search)帶來的一些行銷效率在推動?
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
It's a combination of factors. It is certainly the product work that we're doing that's having an effect across the whole system. And it's encouraging to see that, that product work, that effort to be more personalized, to be more relevant, applied on all services has a sort of commensurate impact. It's having the biggest impact on the mobile app because that's all logged in usage, and we can really go the deepest and fastest there. I think also helping our non-app traffic -- our marketing activities were really effective during the first quarter.
這是多種因素的組合。當然,我們正在進行的產品工作確實對整個系統都產生影響。令人鼓舞的是,這些產品工作——更個人化、更相關的努力——套用在所有服務上,帶來了相對應的影響。它對行動 app 的影響最大,因為那裡都是登入狀態的使用,我們可以在那裡做得最深、也最快。我認為同時也在幫助我們的非 app 流量——我們第一季的行銷活動非常有效。
We increased our marketing spend year-over-year, and we gained operating leverage in terms of GMS and revenue -- revenue -- operating leverage of the marketing line. That's come from more efficient spending, mix optimization, our owned channels becoming a bigger driver of activation and reactivation and some of the competitive dynamics, particularly in the paid search marketplace.
我們的行銷支出較去年同期增加,同時在 GMS 與營收上取得了營運槓桿——也就是行銷費用項目的營運槓桿。這來自於更有效率的投放、組合最佳化、自有渠道(owned channels)在啟動與再啟動(activation and reactivation)上成為更大的驅動力,以及一些競爭態勢的變化,特別是在付費搜尋市場。
In both PLAs and search engine marketing, we leaned in. We increased our investment there. Google has made some changes to the algorithms that they use to surface results, and that's helped us in that channel. I talked a little bit earlier about what we're doing in paid social and in our sort of brand marketing on social. And then really importantly, our owned channels, the push notifications and e-mail continues to grow at double-digit rates year-over-year in terms of driving GMS.
在商品列表廣告(PLAs)與搜尋引擎行銷(search engine marketing)兩方面,我們都加大投入。我們提高了那裡的投資。Google 對其用來呈現結果的演算法做了一些調整,這對我們在該渠道有所幫助。我先前也稍微談到我們在付費社群(paid social)以及社群上的品牌行銷方面所做的事。另外非常重要的是,我們的自有渠道——推播通知與電子郵件——在帶動 GMS 方面,仍然維持年增雙位數的成長。
And that's great because there isn't double-digit increase in spending in that channel. And we've had some search engine optimization wins over the last couple of quarters that are also feeding some of that strength you're seeing in the desktop and non-app environment.
這很棒,因為該渠道的支出並沒有雙位數增加。而且過去幾個季度我們在搜尋引擎最佳化(SEO)上也有一些成果,這也在推動你們在桌機與非 app 環境中看到的部分強勢表現。
Operator
Operator
Anna Andreeva, Piper.
Anna Andreeva,Piper。
Anna Andreeva - Equity Analyst
Anna Andreeva - Equity Analyst
Great. Congrats. Nice to see a steady improvement in the business. We wanted to ask on the seller metrics. First quarter of growth really in quite a while now. And Kruti, you mentioned better retention of the seller base in the shareholder letter. Can you talk about what are some of the key initiatives behind that, that are resonating the most? And should we expect stability in the seller metrics as embedded in the guide?
很好。恭喜。很高興看到業務穩步改善。我們想問賣家指標。這是相當長一段時間以來首次出現第一季成長。Kruti,你在致股東信中提到賣家基礎的留存更好。你能談談背後有哪些關鍵舉措最能引起共鳴嗎?以及在指引中,是否已隱含賣家指標將維持穩定的預期?
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Well, the sellers are a fundamental portion of our marketplace kind of obviously. The breadth and depth of the inventory that they bring is really what makes Etsy differentiated. We are in our product work, as Kruti described, really trying to bring forward the human connection and emphasize the human element of creativity and craftsmanship that really differentiates Etsy sellers. And so as we've done that and our buyer base continues to grow, we're starting to see improvement again in the seller count.
嗯,賣家顯然是我們市集非常根本的一部分。他們帶來的商品庫存之廣度與深度,正是讓 Etsy 與眾不同的關鍵。正如 Kruti 所描述的,在我們的產品工作上,我們確實在努力強化人與人之間的連結,並凸顯創意與工藝中「人」的元素,這也是真正讓 Etsy 賣家與眾不同之處。因此,隨著我們持續推進這些工作、買家基礎也持續成長,我們開始再次看到賣家數量有所改善。
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Look, I think more broadly, I would just say, we haven't invested deeply in the seller experience over the last several years, and that's somewhere where we're shifting more focus to going forward. And I think that we expect to see really positive impact from that. And really, what we're focused on is making it easier for sellers to manage their shops and to manage their listings. These are some of the areas that take the most time, but are not the most value add.
我想更廣泛地說,過去幾年我們並沒有在賣家體驗上做深度投資,而這是我們接下來要把更多重心轉移到的方向。我們也預期這會帶來非常正面的影響。而我們真正聚焦的是,讓賣家更容易管理他們的商店與商品刊登。這些是最耗時的環節之一,但並不是最能創造價值的部分。
So when I was talking about human connection, really the most important things that our sellers can do to add value to the marketplace is continue to innovate and add really that new inventory to the marketplace and continue to provide really great human service to our buyers. These are the places that we're really focused on investing in. I mentioned this in terms of some of the AI tools that we're launching, shop management assistance. We've already talked about AI listing assistance. These are areas where we continue to focus on making the seller experience better to drive that side of the flywheel of marketplace growth.
所以當我談到人際連結時,賣家能為市集增值最重要的事情,其實是持續創新、為市集帶來真正的新商品庫存,並持續為買家提供非常優質、有人味的服務。這些就是我們真正聚焦投資的地方。我也提到過,我們正在推出的一些 AI 工具,例如店鋪管理協助。我們也已經談過 AI 刊登協助。這些領域我們會持續專注於改善賣家體驗,以推動市集成長飛輪中賣家端的動能。
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
The retention of sellers has started to improve, and that is helping the overall seller number. We're seeing healthier quality of sellers, more of the sellers are completing sales and having strong GMS results and a higher percentage of them are staying with us year to year to year. So some of that product work that we've begun is the friction that we're taking out is starting to have an effect there on the store count.
賣家留存已開始改善,這也有助於整體賣家數量。我們看到賣家品質更健康:更多賣家完成交易、取得強勁的 GMS 表現,且其中更高比例的賣家年復一年地留在我們平台上。因此,我們已啟動的一些產品工作、所移除的摩擦,正開始對店鋪數量產生影響。
Operator
Operator
Youssef Squali, Truist Securities.
Youssef Squali,Truist Securities。
Youssef Squali - Analyst
Youssef Squali - Analyst
Okay. Sorry about that. Lanny, with the mid-single-digit growth for Etsy Marketplace GMS you just put up in Q1, what are the main drivers pulling that growth rate to the low single-digit percentage expected for the year? And with all the changes you're making, do you believe you have line of sight to positive active buyer growth this year? Just trying to get a sense of what's baked into your low single-digit percentage GMS growth?
好的。抱歉剛才那樣。Lanny,Etsy Marketplace GMS 在第一季剛繳出中個位數成長,拉低到全年預期的低個位數成長率的主要因素是什麼?另外,在你們做了這麼多改變之後,你們是否認為今年能看得到活躍買家數轉為正成長的明確路徑?我只是想了解一下,你們的低個位數 GMS 成長預期中,已經納入了哪些假設?
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
As we described, the outlook is predicated upon a gradual improvement in the underlying fundamentals of the business as we've started to show over the last couple of quarters. It will take us some time to get all the different metrics back into positive year-over-year territory, and we haven't commented on those very specifically.
如同我們所說,這份展望是建立在我們在過去幾個季度已開始呈現的、業務底層基本面逐步改善之上。要讓各項不同指標都回到年對年為正,仍需要一些時間,而我們也沒有對那些指標做非常具體的評論。
As we -- but that underlying -- we do anticipate that there'll be underlying fundamental improvement in sort of the core buyer metrics as we move throughout the year. The comparisons do get trickier, more challenging later in the year than certainly they were in the first quarter, and we roll off of the foreign currency very strong tailwind that we saw in the first quarter that will moderate as we move through the year.
不過,就那個底層面而言,我們確實預期,隨著今年推進,核心買家指標會出現基本面的改善。相較第一季,後續季度的比較基期會更棘手、更具挑戰;此外,我們也會逐步消化第一季外匯帶來的非常強勁順風,這股順風在今年後續將趨於緩和。
And in the first quarter this year, our GMS was certainly helped by an increase in average order value and FX will slow down. We think that the increases in listings prices that corresponded with the end of the de minimis exemption and the implementation of other tariffs. Those increases are probably sticky price increases, but we will lap the benefit of sellers having taken that up.
而在今年第一季,我們的 GMS 也確實受惠於平均訂單金額(AOV)的提升,且外匯助力將會放緩。我們認為,隨著小額免稅(de minimis)豁免的終止以及其他關稅的實施,對應出現的商品刊登價格上調。這些上調很可能會是具黏性的價格上漲,但我們也會在之後的期間消化(lap)賣家已完成調價所帶來的基期效益。
And also driving AOV have been product improvements that are helping us surface more relevant items, higher quality, higher value items, and that's contributing as well. So as we look across the course of this year, there's some mitigation in sort of the growth benefit of some of those external factors and continuation of the internally driven inputs to our growth equation.
此外,推動 AOV 的還有產品改進:幫助我們呈現更相關的商品、更高品質與更高價值的商品,這也在貢獻成長。因此,綜觀今年,部分外部因素帶來的成長助益會有所減弱,而由內部驅動、納入我們成長方程式的投入則會持續延續。
Operator
Operator
Shweta Khajuria, Wolfe Research.
Shweta Khajuria,Wolfe Research。
Shweta Khajuria - Equity Analyst
Shweta Khajuria - Equity Analyst
Could you please talk about the balance of AOV and frequency? So when we think about frequency, and you've now touched on this multiple times, including in your shareholder letter, that it may take some time to see that inflection in frequency. But from your prior data, what is the lag that you see once you start seeing an improvement in some of the other fundamental metrics, whether it is buyer or buyer growth or engagement? What is the time lag when you start seeing sort of that uplift in frequency? And then similarly for retention, what are you looking for from personalized recommendations and targeted offers that gives you confidence in driving better retention?
能否請你談談 AOV 與購買頻率之間的平衡?談到頻率,你們現在已多次提及(包括在致股東信中),頻率的拐點可能需要一些時間才會出現。但依據你們過去的數據,一旦你們開始看到其他一些基本面指標改善(不論是買家數、買家成長或互動度),你們通常會看到多長的滯後期,才開始出現頻率的提升?也就是說,通常要多久才會看到頻率的上行?同樣地,就留存而言,你們會從個人化推薦與定向優惠中觀察哪些訊號,讓你們有信心能推動更好的留存?
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
One of the encouraging things that we've seen so far as we started this year is that despite the fact that the average order value has gone up, as I just described, our buyer numbers and our frequency numbers have been stable, if not improving. And that's nice to see that impact on user behavior even in an environment of slightly higher prices on Etsy and in other places. And so I think there are some early signs that the work that we are doing to drive retention and frequency through personalization, through the mobile app, everything we've been talking about is starting to have a benefit.
我們今年開始以來看到的一個令人鼓舞的現象是:儘管如我剛才所說,平均訂單金額已上升,但我們的買家數與購買頻率仍保持穩定,甚至略有改善。很高興看到,即便 Etsy 以及其他地方的價格環境略高,使用者行為仍出現這樣的影響。因此,我認為已有一些早期跡象顯示,我們透過個人化、透過行動 App,以及我們一直在談的各項措施來推動留存與頻率的工作,開始帶來效益。
But I do think as we look forward, we'll continue to see that benefit be there and compound over time. Shweta, it is challenging to predict with precision the exact timing of various inflections in that in various components of the frequency and the active buyer churn. So what I would say is we've stabilized. We've started to show growth in some areas. And we'll keep you posted as the benefits of the work that we are doing through our priorities continue to play through the mechanics of the model.
但我也認為,展望未來,我們會持續看到這些效益存在,並隨時間累積放大。Shweta,要非常精準地預測頻率各個構成要素與活躍買家流失(churn)在不同環節出現拐點的確切時間點,是有挑戰的。所以我會說,我們已經穩住了。我們也開始在某些領域呈現成長。隨著我們依照優先事項推進的工作,其效益持續透過模型機制逐步反映,我們也會持續向各位更新。
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Yes. A couple of other things that I would just add are -- it's hard to predict the exact timing, but we know that we're very confident in the continued growth, but we know that growth won't be linear. I think that's a really important thing to note. We've talked a lot about our priorities of taking a much more systematic approach that we expect to lift all of the key metrics behind that drive our GMS. So that's another reason that it makes it difficult to predict the inflection of any one of these metrics individually.
是的。我還想補充幾點——雖然很難預測確切時間,但我們對持續成長非常有信心,同時也知道成長不會是線性的。我認為這點非常重要。我們已多次談到,我們的優先事項是採取更系統化的方法,預期能拉升所有驅動 GMS 的關鍵指標。因此,這也是為什麼很難去單獨預測任何一項指標的拐點。
I would just also reiterate that we're seeing very early but very encouraging signals, the initial improvements that we're making around personalization across services like app-home and marketing communication are very, very promising and the precursor to driving other metrics, particularly feeding into frequency and retention.
我也想再次強調,我們看到的是非常早期但非常令人鼓舞的訊號:我們在個人化方面所做的初步改善,涵蓋像是 App 首頁(app-home)與行銷溝通等服務,表現非常、非常有前景,並且是推動其他指標的前導因素,特別是會進一步帶動頻率與留存。
Operator
Operator
Naved Khan, B. Riley.
Naved Khan,B. Riley。
Naved Khan - Equity Analyst
Naved Khan - Equity Analyst
Great. I just wanted to maybe dig into something you said earlier in answering question. I think it was Youssef, but I wanted to talk about AOV. And if you were to kind of look at AOV on an FX-neutral basis and strip away the impact from the exemption of the de minimis exemption and its effect on list prices, how would AOV growth look like excluding these sort of extraneous factors?
很好。我只是想再深入追問一下你先前在回答問題時提到的一點。我想那是 Youssef 說的,但我想談談 AOV。如果你以外匯中性(FX-neutral)的基礎來看 AOV,並剔除最低免稅額(de minimis exemption)豁免及其對標價(list prices)的影響,那麼在排除這些外在因素後,AOV 的成長會是什麼樣子?
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Charles Baker - Chief Financial Officer
I think if you strip out the things that you talked about, you would find that there is growth in AOV coming from product optimizations that we have made in how we respond to buyer search inquiries. To surface -- we've talked about this for a long time, higher quality, more relevant items, incorporating the quality of the item into the search results ranking. And what that's doing is it's elevating the average order value as we surface more differentiated, more unique, more in the eyes of the buyer, more valuable items.
我認為如果把你提到的那些因素剔除,你會發現 AOV 的成長來自於我們在產品優化上的成果,尤其是在我們如何回應買家的搜尋查詢方面。在呈現結果上——我們談這件事談了很久——提供更高品質、更相關的商品,並把商品品質納入搜尋結果的排序。而這樣做的效果,是當我們呈現更具差異化、更獨特、在買家眼中更有價值的商品時,就會拉升平均訂單金額(AOV)。
But as I said, most of the increase in AOV right now is coming from the other factors, foreign currency and listing price changes. But we do have our -- there is an influence from some of the product work that we're doing on AOV.
但如我所說,目前 AOV 的大部分提升仍是來自其他因素:外幣匯率以及刊登價格(listing price)的變動。不過,我們確實——我們正在進行的一些產品工作,對 AOV 也有一定影響。
Operator
Operator
Jason Helfstein, Oppenheimer.
Jason Helfstein,Oppenheimer。
Jason Helfstein - Analyst
Jason Helfstein - Analyst
I want to ask just around AI. I mean, obviously, every company is thinking how they should be deploying this at what scale, at what cost, right? And how much kind of like doing it all internally versus consult. Can you maybe talk about where is Etsy right now in that kind of thought process? And at some point, like should we expect you to hear from you that like it's time to get much more aggressive around kind of bringing AI automation into the workflow of the business?
我想就 AI 問一下。我的意思是,很明顯每家公司都在思考應該以什麼規模、什麼成本來部署它,對吧?以及有多少要完全內部自建,多少要靠顧問或外部協助。你能否談談 Etsy 目前在這類思考流程中的位置?另外在某個時間點,我們是否應該預期你們會說:是時候更積極地把 AI 自動化導入公司的工作流程了?
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Kruti Patel Goyal - President, Chief Growth Officer
Yes. I think there are a couple of different parts of what you just said. Let me tackle them separately. So how much we do things internally versus leverage external tools. We've been -- first of all, I'd say we've been very proactive in how we're thinking about AI and the potential impact for AI on the business really holistically.
是的。我認為你剛剛提到的內容有幾個不同部分。我分開來回答。先談我們有多少是內部做、多少是運用外部工具。我們一直——首先我會說,我們在思考 AI 以及 AI 對業務可能帶來的影響時,一直都非常主動,而且是以更全面的角度來看。
The place that we have all talked about the most is in terms of external partnerships, but we are being just as proactive in how we're thinking about deploying AI internally. I talked a little bit about this before in terms of some of the on-site investments that we're making.
我們大家談得最多的面向,是外部合作夥伴關係,但我們在思考如何在內部部署 AI 方面同樣非常積極。我之前也稍微提到過,關於我們正在進行的一些站內(on-site)投資。
And when you think about the internal, external mix, we really actively leverage a hybrid of options, open source models, commercial models and our internal models, really balancing capabilities with cost. And we expect to continue to do that. We want to use the best tools out there to solve the problems that we're trying to solve.
而當你思考內部與外部的組合時,我們其實非常積極地採用混合式方案:開源模型、商用模型以及我們的內部模型,在能力與成本之間做平衡。我們也預期會持續這麼做。我們希望使用市面上最好的工具,來解決我們想解決的問題。
I think the other part of your question is how we're applying these tools internally to how we work. And we really see that is a space that is evolving very rapidly. We see these tools as a real force multiplier across our internal teams. There's power tools that are powering how we're working across really every function. And the biggest opportunity here is accelerating our build times, our build cycles and time to learning. We have seen this already with the agents that we were able to launch in the last quarter, really just built in weeks.
我認為你問題的另一部分,是我們如何把這些工具用在內部的工作方式上。我們確實看到這個領域正在非常快速地演進。我們把這些工具視為能在內部團隊之間產生真正倍增效應的力量。這些是強力工具,幾乎在每個職能上都在驅動我們的工作方式。而這裡最大的機會,是加速我們的開發時間、開發週期以及學習時間(time to learning)。我們已經看到這點:我們在上一季推出的那些代理(agents),真的只花了幾週就完成。
As we continue to see more of that opportunity to leverage tools to accelerate our work, we will deploy them actively. I see this as a continued area to lean in and to invest rather than one big drop. So you can expect us to take that same kind of disciplined but very proactive approach to how we apply AI tools, both on the experience and internally with our teams.
隨著我們持續看到更多運用工具來加速工作的機會,我們會積極部署。我把這視為一個會持續加碼與投資的領域,而不是一次性的大幅投入。因此你可以預期,我們會以同樣紀律嚴謹但非常主動的方式,來應用 AI 工具——不論是在使用者體驗上,或是在內部團隊的工作上。
Deb Wasser - Vice President - Investor Relations
Deb Wasser - Vice President - Investor Relations
Great. Thank you, Kruti. Thank you, Lanny. I'm going to call it there. We don't have time to take a question and answer it. So we appreciate everyone's time this morning, and we'll be following up with all of you. Thank you all so much.
很好。謝謝你,Kruti。謝謝你,Lanny。我就到這裡。我們沒有時間再接一個問題並回答。所以感謝大家今天早上的時間,我們會再跟各位後續聯繫。非常感謝大家。