ETSY Inc (ETSY) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q4 2018 Etsy, Inc.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到 2018 年第四季度 Etsy, Inc.

Earnings Conference Call.

收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the call over to Deb Wasser, Vice President, Investor Relations.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Deb Wasser。

Ma'am, please begin.

女士，請開始。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Etsy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

下午好，歡迎來到 Etsy 2018 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。

Joining me today are Josh Silverman, CEO; and Rachel Glaser, our CFO.

今天加入我的是首席執行官 Josh Silverman；和我們的首席財務官 Rachel Glaser。

On today's call, we'll be providing an abbreviated summary of our Q4 results as we look forward to providing a deeper dive on our business at Investor Day on March 7.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將提供我們第四季度業績的簡短摘要，因為我們期待在 3 月 7 日的投資者日對我們的業務進行更深入的探討。

Before we get started, just a reminder that our remarks today include forward-looking statements relating to our ability to bring buyers back to etsy.com and our financial guidance and key drivers thereof, including marketing spend and anticipated timing, anticipated product launches, investments in headcount and timing of our migration to the cloud.

在我們開始之前，請提醒我們，我們今天的評論包括與我們將買家帶回 etsy.com 的能力相關的前瞻性陳述，以及我們的財務指導和關鍵驅動因素，包括營銷支出和預期時間、預期產品發布、投資在我們遷移到雲的人數和時間方面。

Our actual results may differ materially.

我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties which are described in our press release, our 10-Q filed with the SEC on November 7, 2018, and our 2018 10-K that we expect to file with the SEC in the coming days.

前瞻性陳述涉及我們的新聞稿、我們於 2018 年 11 月 7 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 以及我們預計在未來幾天向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2018 年 10-K 中描述的風險和不確定性。

Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we don't have any obligation to update them.

我們在此次電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述都是基於我們今天的信念和假設，我們沒有義務更新它們。

Also during the call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

同樣在電話會議期間，我們將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。

A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measure is included in today's earnings press release, which you can find on our IR website.

今天的收益新聞稿中包含非 GAAP 與 GAAP 衡量指標的對賬，您可以在我們的 IR 網站上找到。

A link to the replay of this call will also be available there.

那裡也將提供指向此通話重播的鏈接。

And if you prefer to access the replay via phone, you can find that information in the press release as well.

如果您更喜歡通過電話訪問重播，您也可以在新聞稿中找到該信息。

We've created a short slide presentation to accompany today's opening remarks and recommend that you follow along.

我們製作了一個簡短的幻燈片演示來配合今天的開場白，並建議您繼續觀看。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Josh.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給喬希。

Thanks, Deb, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，Deb，大家下午好。

I'll start by touching on Etsy's Q4 results, which you can see on Slide 4.

我將首先介紹 Etsy 的第四季度結果，您可以在幻燈片 4 上看到。

Currency-neutral GMS growth was 23%, accelerating for the fifth consecutive quarter and representing our highest Q4 GMS growth rate since we've been public.

貨幣中性 GMS 增長率為 23%，連續第五個季度加速增長，是我們上市以來第四季度最高的 GMS 增長率。

Revenue was up nearly 47%, and we delivered adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 26%.

收入增長近 47%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 26%。

I'll talk more about key drivers of this performance, specifically our strong holiday results, in a moment.

稍後我將更多地討論這種表現的主要驅動因素，特別是我們強勁的假期業績。

Slide 5 shows a recap of our 2018 performance.

幻燈片 5 回顧了我們 2018 年的表現。

These results are evidence that in a sea of sameness, Etsy offers something different.

這些結果證明，在千篇一律的海洋中，Etsy 提供了一些不同的東西。

GMS reached nearly $4 billion, revenue was slightly over $600 million, and we significantly improved adjusted EBITDA.

GMS 達到近 40 億美元，收入略高於 6 億美元，我們顯著改善了調整後的 EBITDA。

With the strong economy at our back, we believe Etsy's growth was higher than the overall e-commerce market, indicating that we are gaining share in a very large and expanding addressable market.

在強勁的經濟支持下，我們認為 Etsy 的增長高於整個電子商務市場，這表明我們正在一個非常龐大且不斷擴大的潛在市場中獲得份額。

Our continued focus on improving the Etsy platform for sellers and buyers is paying off.

我們持續專注於為買賣雙方改進 Etsy 平台，並取得了成效。

Throughout 2018, we focused relentlessly on our 4 key initiatives, invested in the product experience for both sellers and buyers, improved customer support and infrastructure, and tested new marketing channels.

在整個 2018 年，我們堅持不懈地專注於我們的 4 項關鍵舉措，投資於買賣雙方的產品體驗，改善客戶支持和基礎設施，並測試新的營銷渠道。

We moved the needle on growth with context-specific search ranking, signals and nudges, personalized recommendations and a host of other product launches.

我們通過特定於上下文的搜索排名、信號和推動、個性化推薦以及一系列其他產品發布推動了增長。

In total, we drove more new buyers to the site and gave existing buyers reasons to come back more often.

總的來說，我們吸引了更多新買家訪問該網站，並讓現有買家有理由更頻繁地回來。

Digging a little deeper into the fourth quarter performance, our strong results were driven by our focus to make Etsy a great place to shop for the holiday season, with gift-buying insights, a focus on personalization and customization, improved landing pages, and most importantly, unique inventory you can't find anywhere else.

更深入地研究第四季度的業績，我們的強勁業績是由於我們專注於使 Etsy 成為節日購物的好地方，提供禮品購買洞察力、專注於個性化和定制、改進的著陸頁，以及大多數重要的是，您在其他任何地方都找不到的獨特庫存。

We work with sellers to create a sense of urgency for buyers, made promotions more prominent, and helped them offer more competitive shipping prices.

我們與賣家合作，為買家營造緊迫感，讓促銷活動更加突出，並幫助他們提供更具競爭力的運費。

Improvements such as estimated delivery date helped buyer -- drive buyer confidence that their special items would arrive in time.

預計交貨日期等改進幫助了買家 - 增強了買家對他們的特殊物品會及時到達的信心。

In fact, turning to Slide 7, on Cyber Monday, we transacted nearly $19,000 in GMS per minute, our highest ever single-day performance.

事實上，請看幻燈片 7，在網絡星期一，我們每分鐘的 GMS 交易額接近 19,000 美元，這是我們有史以來最高的單日表現。

Also, approximately 1/3 of items on Etsy were available to ship for free domestically during the holidays, which drove meaningful improvements in conversion rate, evidence that our product initiatives, seller education and incentives are paying off.

此外，Etsy 上大約 1/3 的商品在假期期間可以在國內免費送貨，這推動了轉化率的顯著提高，證明我們的產品計劃、賣家教育和激勵措施正在取得成效。

All in all, it was a great holiday season for Etsy and our sellers, with holiday GMS, 5 days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, up 30% versus the prior year.

總而言之，對於 Etsy 和我們的賣家來說，這是一個很棒的假期，假期 GMS，從感恩節到網絡星期一的 5 天，比去年增加了 30%。

We're confident that the positive experience many buyers had will bring them back to us for that something special again in the future.

我們相信，許多買家的積極體驗將在未來再次為我們帶來特別的東西。

As you know, one of our goals following our price increase was to test various new marketing channels to determine which of them could potentially increase awareness, frequency and help make Etsy more top of mind among both active and the new buyers.

如您所知，我們提價後的目標之一是測試各種新的營銷渠道，以確定哪些渠道可能會提高知名度和頻率，並幫助使 Etsy 在活躍買家和新買家中更受歡迎。

We elevated our marketing spend in Q4 to find out 2 things: First, we wanted to test new channels, such as TV and paid social to find if we could make them ROI positive; Second, we wanted to see how elevated spend in Google products would impact our returns.

我們在第 4 季度提高了營銷支出，以了解兩件事：首先，我們想測試新渠道，例如電視和付費社交媒體，看看我們是否能讓它們獲得正投資回報率；其次，我們想了解 Google 產品支出的增加將如何影響我們的回報。

In other words, how much can we step on the gas in each channel before the technometer reaches yellow or red?

換句話說，在技術表達到黃色或紅色之前，我們可以在每個通道中踩多少油？

Overall, we were pleased with the preliminary results of our testing as brand awareness and visits showed signs of improvement.

總體而言，我們對測試的初步結果感到滿意，因為品牌知名度和訪問量顯示出改善的跡象。

In Q1, we're taking a step back to recalibrate and reassess our spend to ensure we optimize investments in the highest potential channels and strategies.

在第一季度，我們將退後一步，重新調整和評估我們的支出，以確保我們優化對最具潛力的渠道和戰略的投資。

Rachel will explain how you should think about our marketing spend for 2019 and you can be sure we will continue to be disciplined in our approach, always guided by our return on investment.

Rachel 將解釋您應該如何考慮我們 2019 年的營銷支出，您可以確定我們將繼續嚴格遵守我們的方法，始終以我們的投資回報為指導。

To conclude, we feel great about the progress made in 2018 and believe we are well positioned for continued growth in 2019.

總而言之，我們對 2018 年取得的進展感到滿意，並相信我們為 2019 年的持續增長做好了充分準備。

I want to thank our sellers for partnering with us, our buyers for shopping with us and our employees for all their hard work in helping to support our vibrant community and delivering a fantastic year.

我要感謝我們的賣家與我們合作，感謝我們的買家與我們一起購物，感謝我們的員工為支持我們充滿活力的社區和度過美好的一年所做的所有辛勤工作。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rachel.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給雷切爾。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬希。

Etsy ended the year on a strong note, as we exceeded our guidance on every metric.

Etsy 以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年，因為我們在每個指標上都超出了我們的指導。

Turning to Slide 10, 2018 full year currency-neutral GMS and as-reported revenue growth accelerated to 20% and 37%, respectively, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 23%.

轉到幻燈片 10，2018 年全年貨幣中性 GMS 和報告的收入增長分別加速至 20% 和 37%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大至 23%。

2018 revenue growth was driven primarily by GMS growth, changes to our pricing model and growth in Promoted Listings.

2018 年的收入增長主要受 GMS 增長、我們定價模型的變化和推薦列表的增長推動。

Our improved adjusted EBITDA margin was the result of revenue growth and cost discipline driven throughout the year.

我們改善的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率是全年收入增長和成本控制的結果。

These results demonstrate our ability to drive top line growth and deliver healthy margins, the beauty of a well-executed marketplace business.

這些結果表明我們有能力推動收入增長並提供可觀的利潤率，這是執行良好的市場業務的美妙之處。

In addition, we successfully improved many important metrics, most notably, in 2018, we made progress increasing frequency, which we believe was a result of our product development and marketing efforts.

此外，我們成功改進了許多重要指標，最值得注意的是，在 2018 年，我們在提高頻率方面取得了進展，我們認為這是我們產品開發和營銷努力的結果。

GMS per active buyer on a trailing 12-month basis was up 2.2% year-over-year and accelerated for the fifth consecutive quarter.

在過去 12 個月的基礎上，每個活躍買家的 GMS 同比增長 2.2%，並連續第五個季度加速增長。

We have been particularly focused on increasing our number of habitual buyers, defined as buyers who spend $200-or-more and made purchases on 6-or-more days in the previous 12 months.

我們一直特別注重增加習慣性買家的數量，習慣性買家的定義是在過去 12 個月內花費 200 美元或更多並且在 6 天或更長時間內進行過購買的買家。

As of December 31, 2018, Etsy had 2 million habitual buyers, up nearly 22% compared to 2017, which grew faster than overall active buyer growth, indicating that our efforts to convert buyers into more loyal shoppers is showing signs of success.

截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日，Etsy 擁有 200 萬習慣性買家，比 2017 年增長近 22%，增長速度快於整體活躍買家增長，表明我們將買家轉化為更忠誠的購物者的努力正在取得成功。

Overall, active buyers increased approximately 18% to 39 million, and active sellers grew approximately 9% to 2 million.

總體而言，活躍買家增長約 18% 至 3900 萬，活躍賣家增長約 9% 至 200 萬。

As we've been saying, our goal is to continue to improve our buyer to seller ratio.

正如我們一直所說，我們的目標是繼續提高買賣雙方的比例。

While we are not walking through the P&L on this call, shown on Slide 13, I do want to highlight 2 points that impact the year-over-year comparison of net income.

雖然我們沒有在幻燈片 13 中顯示本次電話會議的損益表，但我確實想強調影響淨收入同比比較的 2 點。

First, in 2017, our net income saw a significant benefit from U.S. tax reform legislation, which we anniversary-ed in the fourth quarter of 2018.

首先，在 2017 年，我們的淨收入從美國稅改立法中受益匪淺，我們在 2018 年第四季度慶祝了該立法。

In Q4 of 2018, we released a valuation allowance on our foreign jurisdictions, which led to a sizable positive impact on net income.

2018 年第 4 季度，我們釋放了對我們外國司法管轄區的估值津貼，這對淨收入產生了相當大的積極影響。

Second, our expenses in Q4 includes $6 million of stock-based compensation expense related to certain employee departures.

其次，我們在第四季度的支出包括與某些員工離職相關的 600 萬美元股票補償費用。

Overall net income for the fourth quarter was $41 million with diluted earnings per share of $0.32.

第四季度的總體淨收入為 4100 萬美元，每股攤薄收益為 0.32 美元。

We were really pleased with Etsy's ability to generate cash in 2018.

我們對 Etsy 在 2018 年產生現金的能力感到非常滿意。

Net cash provided by operating activities was nearly $199 million compared with $69 million in the prior year, as shown on Slide 14.

如幻燈片 14 所示，經營活動提供的現金淨額接近 1.99 億美元，而上一年為 6900 萬美元。

We ended the year with $624 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.

年底，我們擁有 6.24 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資。

During the year, we repurchased approximately $135 million of common stock, including $45 million during Q4, as part of the new $200 million authorized by our board in November.

在這一年裡，我們回購了大約 1.35 億美元的普通股，其中包括在第四季度回購的 4500 萬美元，作為董事會在 11 月授權的新的 2 億美元的一部分。

Our 2018 share repurchases remained at an average price of $30.28 per share.

我們 2018 年的股票回購平均價格保持在每股 30.28 美元。

We also recently entered into a $200 million revolving credit facility.

我們最近還簽訂了 2 億美元的循環信貸額度。

Our strong cash position sets us up for growth in 2019 and beyond.

我們強大的現金狀況為我們在 2019 年及以後的增長奠定了基礎。

Turning to our 2019 outlook.

轉向我們的 2019 年展望。

There is some uncertainty surrounding the macro environment, specifically global consumer spending, and we continue to closely monitor trends for potential impact to our business.

宏觀環境存在一些不確定性，特別是全球消費者支出，我們將繼續密切關注對我們業務的潛在影響的趨勢。

We're currently forecasting sustained growth and expanding margins for 2019, with GMS growth in the range of 17% to 20%, revenue growth of 29% to 32% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 23% to 25%.

我們目前預測 2019 年將持續增長並擴大利潤率，GMS 增長率在 17% 至 20% 之間，收入增長率為 29% 至 32%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 23% 至 25%。

I want to provide some thoughts on how you should think about your 2019 models.

我想就您應該如何看待 2019 年的模型提供一些想法。

First, in terms of the cadence of GMS growth for the year, we had a soft start to Q1 as we pulled back on some marketing investments and launched new product development initiatives for the year following our December slush period.

首先，就今年 GMS 的增長節奏而言，我們在 12 月的低迷時期後的一年中撤回了一些營銷投資並啟動了新產品開發計劃，因此第一季度開局不利。

FX became a headwind in the back half of 2018 and continues to be a headwind for our GMS growth.

外匯成為 2018 年下半年的不利因素，並將繼續成為我們 GMS 增長的不利因素。

Second, marketing will continue to be one of the areas of investment for us in 2019.

第二，2019年營銷仍將是我們投資的領域之一。

In Q1, we have pulled back on spend somewhat while we digest what we have learned from heightened spend levels in Q4, and expect marketing expense in the first quarter of 2019 to decrease as a percent of revenue compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, which could positively impact Q1 adjusted EBITDA.

在第一季度，我們略微縮減了支出，同時消化了我們從第四季度支出水平提高中學到的東西，並預計 2019 年第一季度的營銷費用佔收入的百分比與 2018 年第四季度相比將有所下降，這可能對第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 產生積極影響。

Going forward, we will continue to test less mature channels, such as TV and digital video, and you should anticipate that marketing expense will be back half-loaded in 2019.

展望未來，我們將繼續測試不太成熟的渠道，例如電視和數字視頻，您應該預計到 2019 年營銷費用將減半。

Third, another area of investment is in people, especially product and engineering resources to improve the core product experience.

第三，另一個投資領域是人力，尤其是產品和工程資源，以改善核心產品體驗。

Please note that a portion of these efforts are capitalized.

請注意，這些努力的一部分已被資本化。

In 2018, total CapEx was approximately $21 million, which included $20 million for capitalized web development and $1 million for property and equipment.

2018 年，資本支出總額約為 2100 萬美元，其中 2000 萬美元用於資本化網絡開發，100 萬美元用於財產和設備。

Capitalized web development at 2018 was elevated due to capitalized expenses related to our cloud migration.

由於與我們的雲遷移相關的資本化支出，2018 年的資本化 Web 開發有所增加。

Fourth, on our cloud migration, we now expect to be fully migrated in the beginning of 2020 and anticipate spend on capacity of approximately $25 million for 2019, most of which will be expensed through cost of revenue.

第四，在我們的雲遷移方面，我們現在預計將在 2020 年初完全遷移，並預計 2019 年的容量支出約為 2500 萬美元，其中大部分將通過收入成本支出。

Fifth, we redesigned sellers' payment accounts to simplify their finances and began dispersing seller funds net of fees in a single transaction.

第五，我們重新設計了賣家的支付賬戶以簡化他們的財務，並開始在單筆交易中分散賣家的資金淨額。

This reduces credit card fees we incur for processing seller bill payments, and we expect this to expand gross margins by at least 100 basis points in 2019.

這減少了我們為處理賣家賬單付款而產生的信用卡費用，我們預計這將在 2019 年將毛利率提高至少 100 個基點。

And lastly, as usual, please also keep in mind that historically our Q4 margins have been seasonally higher than the rest of the year.

最後，和往常一樣，請記住，從歷史上看，我們第四季度的利潤率季節性高於今年餘下時間。

Please refer to Slide 19 in our earnings presentation for specific factors that we have incorporated into our guidance.

請參閱我們的收益演示文稿中的幻燈片 19，了解我們納入指南的具體因素。

Note that we plan to file our 10-Q shortly.

請注意，我們計劃很快提交我們的 10-Q。

I'm pleased to let you know that we have integrated our social, environmental and economic impact metrics into our 10-K for the first time.

我很高興地告訴您，我們已經首次將我們的社會、環境和經濟影響指標整合到我們的 10-K 中。

To sum up, we're building on our momentum following a great quarter and a great year.

總而言之，在經歷了一個偉大的季度和一個偉大的一年之後，我們正在鞏固我們的勢頭。

We expect to continue to capitalize on our large market opportunity and deliver sustained growth and expanding margins.

我們希望繼續利用我們巨大的市場機會，實現持續增長和擴大利潤率。

We hope you all tune into our Investor Day next week, which will be available via webcast on our Investor Relations website.

我們希望大家收看下週的投資者日，該日將通過我們的投資者關係網站上的網絡直播提供。

We plan to review our longer-term growth strategy, multiyear product and marketing vision, and our view of Etsy's growth opportunity ahead.

我們計劃審查我們的長期增長戰略、多年產品和營銷願景，以及我們對 Etsy 未來增長機會的看法。

Thank you all for your time today.

謝謝大家今天的時間。

We will now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自希思特里與高盛的合作。

This is Daniel on for Heath.

這是希思的丹尼爾。

Just a couple of quick questions from us.

我們只是幾個簡單的問題。

One, around the marketing, talking about pulling back a little bit in Q1 and reassessing some of the spend there.

第一，圍繞營銷，談論在第一季度略微縮減並重新評估那裡的一些支出。

Are you guys still considering over the balance of the year being able to reinvest the 80% of incremental take rate revenue that you had quoted a couple of quarters ago?

你們是否仍在考慮在今年餘下的時間裡能夠將幾個季度前引用的 80% 的增量收入進行再投資？

And then the channels that you're looking to spend that into, what did you see specifically around those in the fourth quarter?

然後是您希望將其投入的渠道，您在第四季度具體看到了什麼？

And then on the take rate in the quarter, you came in a little bit lighter than we had been modeling.

然後在本季度的採用率上，你的表現比我們建模的要輕一些。

Just curious if there's anything from a contra-revenue perspective, particularly within marketplace revenue?

只是想知道是否有任何來自相反收入的角度，特別是在市場收入方面？

Or anything that you're seeing from how sellers are reacting to the inclusion of shipping fees in the take rate that might have impacted that?

或者您從賣家對將運費包含在可能影響的提貨率中的反應中看到的任何事情？

Great, I'll start on the marketing pieces.

太好了，我將開始營銷部分。

So first, I would say that, if you look forward into 2019, the guidance we provided, the EBITDA margins of 23% to 25%, are inclusive of marketing so that gives you a sense of how we're thinking.

所以首先，我想說的是，如果你展望 2019 年，我們提供的指導，即 23% 至 25% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，包括營銷在內，讓你了解我們的想法。

While we haven't committed to a specific what percentage of the take rate increase goes into marketing, we will continue to see EBITDA margins expand, but you can expect that we're continuing to invest meaningfully in marketing in 2019.

雖然我們沒有承諾將多少百分比的增長率用於營銷，但我們將繼續看到 EBITDA 利潤率擴大，但您可以預期我們將在 2019 年繼續對營銷進行有意義的投資。

We also said we expect that to be more back-half loaded as we digest and absorb and consolidate the learnings from Q4 and then incorporate that into our investments going forward in 2019.

我們還表示，我們預計隨著我們消化、吸收和鞏固第四季度的經驗，然後將其納入我們 2019 年的投資中，我們將承擔更多的後半部分。

TV is something that I know is of interest to many people.

我知道很多人都對電視感興趣。

We did spend and invest in TV in the second half of 2018, and our learnings there are, in general, we are pleased with what we saw.

我們確實在 2018 年下半年對電視進行了支出和投資，我們從那裡學到的東西，總的來說，我們對所看到的感到滿意。

We are tracking 2 things: one is, what is it doing to our brand health metrics?

我們正在跟踪兩件事：一是，它對我們的品牌健康指標有何影響？

And the second is, how is that translating into spend in the near term?

第二個是，這在短期內如何轉化為支出？

On the brand health metrics, we're seeing that TV does appear to be positively impacting our brand health metrics, particularly around things like intent to purchase and we think that that's a great leading indicator that is encouraging.

在品牌健康指標方面，我們看到電視似乎確實對我們的品牌健康指標產生了積極影響，尤其是在購買意向等方面，我們認為這是一個令人鼓舞的重要領先指標。

In terms of translating into purchase activity, it is translating into purchase activity, not enough to fully fund the TV campaign in period, but we think that this is an investment we're making for medium-term, so we're seeing some near-term results and encouraging signs for the future that make us want to continue to invest in it in 2019 and beyond.

就轉化為購買活動而言，它正在轉化為購買活動，不足以及時為電視廣告活動提供足夠的資金，但我們認為這是一項中期投資，所以我們看到一些近期的投資長期的結果和令人鼓舞的未來跡象使我們希望在 2019 年及以後繼續對其進行投資。

And maybe I'll now turn it over to Rachel for the take rate.

也許我現在會把它交給 Rachel 來了解採納率。

On the take rate, so if you take all of our revenue and divide it by all of our GMS, that is the total take rate.

關於收入率，如果你把我們所有的收入除以我們所有的 GMS，那就是總收入率。

But it really breaks down into the elements of the take rates that are mandatory.

但它實際上分解為強制性的採用率元素。

So to participate as a seller on the site, there's a transaction fee rate and a listing fee rate, so nothing's changed with that.

所以作為賣家參與網站，有交易費率和上市費率，所以沒有任何改變。

The additional services are somewhat variable, so I'm not sure exactly how you modeled it, but there's nothing from contra revenue that would be impacting those numbers specifically.

額外的服務有些變化，所以我不確定你是如何建模的，但是對沖收入沒有什麼會特別影響這些數字。

So if you think about in those 2 components, I think you maybe have maybe a model issue that we can look at with you at another time.

因此，如果您考慮這兩個組件，我認為您可能遇到模型問題，我們可以在其他時間與您一起研究。

Yes.

是的。

No, I mean I think we had just been making some assumptions around the amount of shipping that would be included in the GMS that new take rate was being applied to.

不，我的意思是我認為我們剛剛對 GMS 中包含的運輸量做出了一些假設，這些運輸量將應用新的費率。

So didn't know if there was anything different than you might have expected initially with how sellers were responding with their pricing there?

所以不知道賣家對那裡的定價的反應是否與您最初預期的有什麼不同？

Yes.

是的。

I don't think the price changed necessarily as -- we haven't seen any deleterious effect of the price rate change really on seller behavior in any metric, be it shipping attach rate for our shipping label products or other forms of behavior.

我認為價格不一定會發生變化，因為我們還沒有看到價格變化對任何指標的賣家行為產生任何有害影響，無論是我們的運輸標籤產品的運輸附加率還是其他形式的行為。

So shipping label attach rate is really affected by what other alternatives they have in the market, how well we've marketed that product to them, et cetera.

因此，運輸標籤貼附率確實受到他們在市場上有哪些其他替代品、我們向他們推銷該產品的情況等因素的影響。

What I am pleased with shipping is that we saw a meaningful improvement in the percentage of items that were listed with free shipping in the fourth quarter, and that translates into higher conversion rates.

我對送貨感到滿意的是，我們看到第四季度免費送貨的商品百分比有了顯著提高，這轉化為更高的轉化率。

And so we think that's helpful, and we're going to continue to be pushing hard on that.

所以我們認為這很有幫助，我們將繼續努力推動這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Kunal Madhukar of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Kunal Madhukar。

I wanted to focus on the Slide 11 that you had on moving the needle on frequency.

我想專注於您在頻率上移動指針的幻燈片 11。

And it's good to like talk about the habitual buyers.

喜歡談論習慣性購買者是件好事。

What about the ones that have multiple purchase days?

那些有多個購買日的呢？

How much do they spend?

他們花了多少錢？

And how is that frequency -- or has that frequency changed at all in the fourth quarter?

這個頻率如何——或者這個頻率在第四季度是否發生了變化？

Yes.

是的。

So we're talking about a specific segment here that we haven't talked about before that we've defined as habitual buyers, and that's a group of people that have bought on 6 or more purchase days and spent $200 or more.

所以我們在這裡談論的是一個我們之前沒有討論過的特定細分市場，我們將其定義為習慣性購買者，這是一群在 6 天或更多購買日內購買並花費 200 美元或更多的人。

And so that's a new segment we're just starting to talk about now.

因此，這是我們現在才剛剛開始談論的一個新細分市場。

And I guess what I would say is that this idea of looking at our very best buyers, and using that to think about what we can learn about the rest of the buyer ecosystem, is helpful and is something that we're excited to just begin on that path.

我想我要說的是，這種關注我們最好的買家的想法，並以此來思考我們可以從其他買家生態系統中學到什麼，是有幫助的，也是我們很高興能夠開始的事情在那條路上。

And so a couple of things we observed is that there's a meaningful number of people out there, about 2 million, who already shop regularly on Etsy and have figured out that Etsy's good for many different purchase occasions.

所以我們觀察到的幾件事是，有相當多的人，大約 200 萬，他們已經定期在 Etsy 上購物，並且發現 Etsy 適合許多不同的購買場合。

When we look at that segment and compare it to other buyers, demographically and psychographically, they're similar to many other buyers.

當我們查看該細分市場並將其與其他買家進行人口統計和心理比較時，他們與許多其他買家相似。

The difference is, they've sort of figured out some hacks to unlock the value of Etsy.

不同的是，他們想出了一些破解方法來釋放 Etsy 的價值。

So it's encouraging to us to then think about how we can make other buyers have an experience that looks more like what the habitual buyers experienced so we can both continue to grow share of wallet with habitual buyers, where I do think there's a meaningful opportunity to grow share of wallet, but also to take other buyers' segments and have them become more habitual.

因此，讓我們感到鼓舞的是，我們可以考慮如何讓其他買家的體驗看起來更像習慣性買家的體驗，這樣我們就可以繼續增加習慣性買家的錢包份額，我認為這是一個有意義的機會增加錢包份額，同時也佔據其他買家的細分市場並讓他們變得更加習慣。

And then do look like analyses and other things to find people on the web who maybe haven't shopped at Etsy before but look like habitual buyers, and disproportionately invest in those segments.

然後做看起來像分析和其他事情，在網上找到可能以前沒有在 Etsy 購物但看起來像習慣買家的人，並且不成比例地投資於這些細分市場。

So on the slide, the multiple buyers is the next tier, so it's 2 or more purchases, so that's the next tier down from habitual; versus all the others that are -- the once-a-year people.

所以在幻燈片上，多個買家是下一層，所以它是 2 次或更多次購買，所以這是習慣性的下一層；與所有其他人相比——一年一次的人。

So those are the -- the once-a-year people we've said for quite some time are 60% of our overall active buyer base.

所以那些是 - 我們已經說過很長一段時間的一年一次的人占我們整體活躍買家群的 60％。

So moving the needle on those top 2 tiers is helpful to accelerate GMS growth.

因此，在前 2 層上移動針頭有助於加速 GMS 的增長。

Totally.

完全。

A quick follow-on on the marketing side, and the marketing pull back -- the pullback in the marketing spend for 1Q and possibly on the first half.

營銷方面的快速跟進和營銷回撤——第一季度甚至可能是上半年的營銷支出回落。

How is the decisioning process kind of shaping up in terms of when do you think you'll get to a point where you know that TV maybe works or social maybe works better, and you start putting more dollars against each of those mediums?

決策過程是如何形成的，你認為你什麼時候會達到你知道電視可能有效或社交可能更好的地步，並且你開始對這些媒體中的每一種投入更多的資金？

Yes.

是的。

Great question.

很好的問題。

So broadly speaking, we think about marketing in 2 buckets.

所以從廣義上講，我們將營銷分為兩個方面。

There's a proven set of investments we make where we're always testing and optimizing to see how we can shift the ROI curve up.

我們進行了一系列經過驗證的投資，我們一直在進行測試和優化，以了解如何將 ROI 曲線向上移動。

So can we invest more at the same return or get better returns at the existing spend?

那麼，我們能否以相同的回報進行更多投資，或者以現有支出獲得更好的回報？

And Google -- right now, there's several Google channels that really are where we see proven ROI, particularly in Google Shopping, so product listing ads.

而谷歌——現在，有幾個谷歌渠道確實是我們看到可靠投資回報率的地方，特別是在谷歌購物中，所以產品列表廣告。

And as we took up our take rate and as we invest in more capabilities, we're leaning into when we spend more, what happens?

當我們提高采用率並投資更多功能時，我們會傾向於花更多錢，會發生什麼？

And sort of how do we follow the marginal return curve down?

以及我們如何沿著邊際回報曲線向下移動？

And the only way to know that is to increase your spend and test it.

知道這一點的唯一方法是增加支出並進行測試。

And so you saw us increase our spend to find out what the limits of and what the shape of that marginal return curve are.

所以你看到我們增加了支出，以找出邊際回報曲線的極限和形狀。

We're going to be challenging our team to continuously improve our capabilities so that we can move that curve up over time.

我們將挑戰我們的團隊，不斷提高我們的能力，以便我們可以隨著時間的推移向上移動該曲線。

And then the competitive marketplace where other people are bidding against us, where the dynamics change.

然後是競爭激烈的市場，其他人與我們競價，動態發生變化。

So we're going to need to continue the test.

所以我們需要繼續測試。

The second bucket is new channels, and we mentioned paid social and TV.

第二個桶是新渠道，我們提到了付費社交和電視。

And in those, we've got to test and learn to, A, find out whether we can make them ROI-positive; and then B, once we do, figure out the return curve over those channels as well, and make investments to make them more effective.

在那些方面，我們必須測試並學習，A，找出我們是否可以使他們的投資回報率是積極的；然後 B，一旦我們這樣做了，還要計算出這些渠道的回報曲線，並進行投資以提高它們的效率。

So on TV, for example, we were encouraged enough by what we saw in the fourth quarter to make us say that we're going to continue to invest in 2019.

因此，例如，在電視上，我們對第四季度所看到的情況感到非常鼓舞，讓我們說我們將在 2019 年繼續投資。

We're developing new creative right now that incorporates the learnings from Q4, we also learn things, for example, on -- in front of what audiences at what time of day do we seem to be getting better performance?

我們現在正在開發新的創意，它結合了第四季度的經驗，我們還學習了一些東西，例如，在一天中的什麼時間面對什麼樣的觀眾，我們似乎會獲得更好的表現？

And so by taking a minute out in the first quarter to consolidate those learnings and translate that into fresh creative and a media strategy that can incorporate those learnings, we think we can put that to work more effectively.

因此，通過在第一季度花一點時間來鞏固這些學習並將其轉化為新的創意和可以結合這些學習的媒體策略，我們認為我們可以更有效地發揮作用。

You'll continue to see us test and learn, and I would expect that we'll be elevating our investment, our marketing investment in some quarters.

您將繼續看到我們進行測試和學習，我希望我們會在某些方面增加我們的投資和營銷投資。

And then I think it's healthy every now and then to pull back a little bit, too.

然後我認為時不時地後退一點也是健康的。

The other thing we learned when we pulled back is incrementality.

當我們撤回時，我們學到的另一件事是漸進性。

So how much of this would you have gotten anyway had you not invested, is one of the things that we as marketers are always asking ourselves.

因此，如果您不進行投資，您會得到多少，這是我們作為營銷人員一直在問自己的事情之一。

And a good way to test that is to pull back and find out what happens to organic traffic.

測試它的一個好方法是撤回並找出自然流量發生了什麼。

So we're going to continue to test and learn, but again, our margins -- the EBITDA margins that we've guided to for 2019 do suggest that we're going to continue to have meaningful investments in marketing through the year.

因此，我們將繼續測試和學習，但同樣，我們的利潤率——我們為 2019 年制定的 EBITDA 利潤率確實表明我們將在今年繼續對營銷進行有意義的投資。

And our next question comes the line of Nick Jones of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的尼克瓊斯。

After testing some of these new marketing channels, are you finding buyers buying across different categories on the site?

在測試了其中一些新的營銷渠道之後，您是否發現買家在網站上購買不同類別的商品？

Or are people still focus on one category and still need to learn about the different offerings Etsy has?

還是人們仍然專注於一個類別並且仍然需要了解 Etsy 提供的不同產品？

Yes, it's a great question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。

So there's, broadly speaking, 2 kinds of engagement we can be driving: One is to bring new buyers to the site; and the second is to get existing buyers to engage again or more often.

因此，從廣義上講，我們可以推動兩種參與：一種是將新買家帶到網站；第二是讓現有買家再次或更頻繁地參與。

And candidly, when we talk about investing in marketing capabilities, we're also relatively early at focusing our spend against those segments differently, and I'm very excited about the roadmap over the next few years to get better and better at that.

坦率地說，當我們談論對營銷能力的投資時，我們也相對較早地以不同的方式將我們的支出集中在這些細分市場上，我對未來幾年在這方面做得越來越好的路線圖感到非常興奮。

So what is the value of getting someone who's only engaged in one category to now engaged in a second category?

那麼，讓只從事一個類別的人現在從事第二個類別的價值是什麼？

When you're acquiring a buyer, buyers coming in, in certain categories are likely to be higher value than buyers coming in another category.

當您收購買家時，某些類別的買家可能比其他類別的買家價值更高。

And candidly, we incorporate some of that into our analytics, but there's an opportunity for us to get more robust in doing that.

坦率地說，我們將其中一些納入了我們的分析，但我們有機會在這方面變得更加穩健。

When we talk about investing in marketing capabilities, that's part of what we're talking about, and we're going to be talking about a lot of these topics at Investor Day on March 7. We'll go deeper on them.

當我們談論投資營銷能力時，這就是我們正在談論的一部分，我們將在 3 月 7 日的投資者日討論很多這些話題。我們將更深入地討論它們。

Great.

偉大的。

And just one follow-up kind of on the same line of thought.

只有一種跟進的思路相同。

With kind of focus on paid marketing channel, is there an opportunity to bolster organic search and maybe get some free channels by focusing internally as you kind of developed search and discovery on platform?

隨著對付費營銷渠道的關注，是否有機會加強有機搜索，並可能通過在平台上開發搜索和發現的方式關注內部來獲得一些免費渠道？

Can that kind of parlay to off-platform?

那種可以在平台外發揮作用嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And we're proud of the fact that substantial majority of our traffic today does come to us for free, either people coming through the web browser and typing in Etsy, launching the app, finding us on SEO.

我們感到自豪的是，今天我們的大部分流量都是免費的，無論是人們通過網絡瀏覽器進入 Etsy，啟動應用程序，還是通過 SEO 找到我們。

But quite a lot of it comes direct to Etsy.

但其中有相當一部分直接來自 Etsy。

We also have a significant social following, and so people who are posting about Etsy on Instagram and on Twitter and other places.

我們也有大量的社交追隨者，因此人們在 Instagram、Twitter 和其他地方發布有關 Etsy 的信息。

And I think the opportunity to leverage that advocacy off of our platform is an opportunity that we can be and plan to be investing more and pushing harder on.

而且我認為利用我們平台之外的宣傳的機會是我們可以併計劃進行更多投資並更加努力推動的機會。

And definitely have other people focused on SEO as a channel to improve that kind of free source of traffic as well.

並且肯定還有其他人關注 SEO 作為改善這種免費流量來源的渠道。

And our next question comes from the line of Edward Yruma of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Edward Yruma。

Two quick ones from me.

我的兩個快速的。

First on the weakness exhibited quarter-to-date, I know you cited marketing or the pullback of marketing spend as a potential cause.

首先，關於本季度迄今表現出的疲軟，我知道你將營銷或營銷支出的縮減列為潛在原因。

I guess, are you seeing other potential consumer behaviors that have changed?

我想，您是否看到其他潛在的消費者行為發生了變化？

And then second, very nice holiday results, particularly the GMS growth.

其次，非常好的假期結果，尤其是 GMS 的增長。

I know that you've been attempting to try to extend the selling period for holiday, and I know you were not successful last year.

我知道你們一直在嘗試延長假期的銷售期，我知道你們去年沒有成功。

Were you able to actually move the center of gravity during that key holiday season?

在那個關鍵的假期期間，你真的能夠轉移重心嗎？

I can start, and Josh will jump in.

我可以開始了，Josh 會加入。

So to answer the second question first, is not really.

所以先回答第二個問題，不是真的。

I think we saw more growth during the periods of time that are important to us, but we didn't really extend the number of days.

我認為我們在對我們來說很重要的時間段內看到了更多的增長，但我們並沒有真正延長天數。

We did have substantially more estimated -- expected delivery date transparency on all of our shipping, and we'll continue to work on shipping and we'll talk more about that at our Investor Day.

我們確實有更多的估計 - 我們所有航運的預期交貨日期透明度，我們將繼續致力於航運，我們將在我們的投資者日討論更多。

On the Q1, I think we saw macro softness, as I think many companies did.

在第一季度，我認為我們看到了宏觀經濟的疲軟，我認為許多公司都是如此。

There was polar vortex, there was government shutdown.

有極地漩渦，有政府關閉。

I mean who really knows, to be honest?

老實說，我的意思是誰真正知道？

But I think maybe overall macro haze, in addition to our own decision to sort of put some marketing channels on hiatus so that we can better evaluate and test -- I call it test and rest, as you move forward, so I think our combination of those things are what we saw in the beginning of Q1.

但我認為，除了我們自己決定暫停一些營銷渠道，以便我們能夠更好地評估和測試——我稱之為測試和休息，隨著你的前進，我認為可能是整體宏觀陰霾，所以我認為我們的組合其中一些是我們在第一季度初看到的。

And our next question comes from the line of Mark Mahaney of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mark Mahaney。

This is Shweta for Mark.

這是馬克的 Shweta。

Two questions, please.

請教兩個問題。

One, on shipping.

一，關於運輸。

You said 1/3 of listings are now shipped for free.

你說現在有 1/3 的商品是免費發貨的。

That's up from 20%, I believe, in the quarter before.

我相信，這高於前一個季度的 20%。

Do you guys have a goal for this year?

你們今年有目標嗎？

Do you think it can reach 50%?

你覺得能達到50%嗎？

Or how is just the education of sellers going so far, clearly good?

或者到目前為止，賣家的教育效果如何，顯然是好的？

Any update on that in terms of this year's goal?

就今年的目標而言，是否有任何更新？

And then the second, any update on international post-integration and some of the key focus areas now in Europe or any other markets?

然後是第二個，關於國際整合後的任何更新以及歐洲或任何其他市場現在的一些關鍵重點領域？

Yes, thanks for the questions.

是的，謝謝你的問題。

So on free shipping, we haven't published a goal for 2019, but this is definitely something we're going to be talking about a lot at Investor Day, and we think that more is better.

所以關於免費送貨，我們還沒有公佈 2019 年的目標，但這絕對是我們將在投資者日談論很多的事情，我們認為越多越好。

So we think that -- we know that buyers prefer free shipping and that sellers win when they offer it in most cases.

所以我們認為——我們知道買家更喜歡免費送貨，而且在大多數情況下，賣家在提供免費送貨服務時會贏。

And so we're going to be working hard to educate them about that and provide the right incentives to make that happen.

因此，我們將努力就此對他們進行教育，並提供正確的激勵措施來實現這一目標。

And it's in our release also, but we also said that 80% of our shipping was available at competitive prices.

它也出現在我們的發布中，但我們還表示我們 80% 的發貨都以具有競爭力的價格提供。

So we've talked about this in the past, that we're really focused on what is reasonable shipping.

所以我們過去討論過這個問題，我們真正關注的是什麼是合理的運輸。

So free is great, but also what's reasonable?

所以免費很好，但還有什麼合理的呢？

We don't want to be excessive shipping price.

我們不想過高的運費。

So that was another focus in the quarter that we feel we succeeded at.

因此，這是我們認為我們在本季度取得成功的另一個重點。

Yes.

是的。

And international GMS grew at a rate faster than the core business.

國際 GMS 的增長速度快於核心業務。

Again, we feel good.

再一次，我們感覺很好。

It was robust.

它很堅固。

One highlight I'd point out is even with all of the Brexit mania that's happening, we had a robust Q4 in the U.K. And in both the U.K. and Germany, those businesses are now more than 50% domestic businesses, meaning the buyer and the seller is in the U.K. or Germany, respectively.

我要指出的一個亮點是，即使正在發生所有脫歐狂熱，我們在英國的第四季度表現強勁。在英國和德國，這些企業現在超過 50% 是國內企業，這意味著買方和賣家分別在英國或德國。

And we think that's terrific.

我們認為這太棒了。

So getting those businesses to continue to grow and getting the other core markets to be increasingly domestic trade markets is really our focus at the moment.

因此，讓這些業務繼續增長，讓其他核心市場成為越來越多的國內貿易市場，才是我們目前的重點。

And our next question comes from the line of Thomas Forte of D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Thomas Forte。戴維森。

So I had 2 things I want to talk about.

所以我有兩件事想談。

One is, when you raised price last year, in the second half of the year, you talked about how you're going to invest all the incremental dollars.

一是，當你去年提高價格時，在今年下半年，你談到了你將如何投資所有增量美元。

Should we think about those investments as having an impact only on 2019 revenue growth?

我們是否應該將這些投資視為僅對 2019 年的收入增長產生影響？

Or is the impact expected to be more further out?

還是預計影響會更遠？

And then second, there's a lot of talk recently about changes to the regulatory environment of India.

其次，最近有很多關於印度監管環境變化的討論。

I know India is not a big area of focus for your right now, but have those changes in regulation at all affected your view of India longer term?

我知道印度目前不是您關注的重點領域，但這些監管變化是否會影響您對印度的長期看法？

So yes, so on the -- no.

所以是的，所以 - 不。

So we look at -- of course, our ROIs, the calculation is based on a lifetime value.

所以我們看——當然，我們的投資回報率，計算是基於生命週期價值的。

So lifetime would be beyond this fiscal year, so there is a long tail on acquiring a new user.

因此生命週期將超過本財政年度，因此獲取新用戶的時間很長。

And we are still evaluating LTV channel by channel.

我們仍在逐個渠道評估 LTV。

TV is a very new channel for us, and then we're also exploring the right mix of TV and digital video.

電視對我們來說是一個非常新的渠道，然後我們也在探索電視和數字視頻的正確組合。

I don't know the slope of the tail specifically yet for those new channels and other less mature -- and that's exactly what we are testing with -- is how much of the yield comes in a future year.

我還不知道那些新渠道和其他不太成熟的渠道的尾部斜率——這正是我們正在測試的——是未來一年的收益率。

We've also coupled those upper-funnel types of marketing spend with consumer sentiment research, so how much are we impacting intent to purchase and sentiment around the brand?

我們還將那些上層漏斗類型的營銷支出與消費者情緒研究相結合，那麼我們對購買意向和品牌情緒的影響有多大？

And how much reach and frequency -- how much staying power you get with the more reach and frequency you're getting with that sort of spend?

以及有多少覆蓋面和頻率——通過這種支出獲得的覆蓋面和頻率越大，您獲得的持久力有多大？

So I think there's a thesis there that the LTV, if -- of upper-funnel market -- it's not my thesis, is the marketing thesis is that the upper-funnel marketing is intended to have more of a stickiness to it and a longer lifetime value.

所以我認為那裡有一個論點，即 LTV，如果 - 上層漏斗市場 - 這不是我的論點，營銷論點是上層漏斗營銷旨在對它有更多的粘性和更長的時間終生價值。

And we're trying to test for ourselves what we believe that number to be.

我們正在嘗試自己測試我們認為這個數字是多少。

Right now, our current guidance for both GMS and EBITDA margins would indicate what we're expecting to get it in year.

目前，我們目前對 GMS 和 EBITDA 利潤率的指導將表明我們期望在一年中得到什麼。

And turning to India, we're making some relatively small investments in India with a hugely talented team of folks on the ground to really drive some export activity there.

轉向印度，我們在印度進行了一些相對較小的投資，當地有一支非常有才華的團隊，真正推動了那裡的一些出口活動。

And the insight is that India has a long history of wonderful craftsmanship and artisanal products.

洞察力是印度擁有精湛的工藝和手工藝品的悠久歷史。

And there's big demand for them in other markets that we serve.

我們服務的其他市場對它們的需求很大。

And for example, we find that when a buyer in, for example, the U.S. or the U.K. buys from someone in India, the lifetime value of that buyer goes up and we thought that was very interesting and encouraging.

例如，我們發現，當美國或英國的買家從印度的某個人那裡購買商品時，該買家的終身價值就會上升，我們認為這非常有趣且令人鼓舞。

And due to the nature of the Indian market, hiring people who can go village to village and actually help artisans to get online and sell on Etsy is actually cost-effective in a way that it wouldn't be in many other markets.

由於印度市場的性質，僱用可以走遍各個村莊並實際幫助工匠上網並在 Etsy 上銷售的人實際上具有成本效益，這是在許多其他市場所不具備的。

It also allows us to get to know those sellers and personally vet them and make sure that their practices and procedures are things that we're comfortable with and fit within Etsy.

它還使我們能夠了解這些賣家並親自審查他們，並確保他們的做法和程序是我們滿意並適合 Etsy 的東西。

We're not currently focused on building a domestic business in India.

我們目前並不專注於在印度建立國內業務。

We're definitely always paying attention to the regulations and laws of each market in which we operate in.

我們肯定一直在關注我們經營所在的每個市場的法規和法律。

Should we want to make investments to build the domestic market in India, there's a bunch of regulations that of course we'd be paying -- we are always paying close attention to now and would have to be part of our consideration about that going into the future.

如果我們想投資建立印度的國內市場，我們當然要遵守一系列規定——我們現在一直在密切關注，並且必須成為我們考慮的一部分未來。

Great.

偉大的。

So to quickly recap, the investment spending as a follow-up to price increase is intended to drive long-term performance, not just 2019, and it doesn't sound like there's any change in regulatory environment that will change how you're pursuing India?

因此，快速回顧一下，作為價格上漲後續行動的投資支出旨在推動長期業績，而不僅僅是 2019 年，而且監管環境的任何變化聽起來都不會改變你的追求方式印度？

Both correct.

兩者都正確。

And our next question comes from the line of Darren Aftahi of Roth Capital Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Roth Capital Partners 的 Darren Aftahi。

Just 2, if I may.

如果可以的話，只有 2 個。

So I think you called out in the release, your Promoted Listings business, you expanded that.

所以我認為你在發布中呼籲，你的推廣列表業務，你擴展了它。

I'm just kind of curious, can you maybe quantify how much demand is outstripping supply?

我只是有點好奇，你能量化多少供不應求嗎？

And if not, kind of perhaps, what inning we are in that expansion?

如果不是，也許，我們在那次擴張中處於哪一局？

And then second question, on those that are doing free shipping over say the second half of '18, what kind of relative lift are you seeing in perhaps GMS per seller relative to those who are maybe offering competitive or uncompetitive shipping levels?

然後是第二個問題，對於那些在 18 年下半年進行免費送貨的人，相對於那些可能提供有競爭力或沒有競爭力的運輸水平的人，你看到每個賣家的 GMS 有什麼樣的相對提升？

Okay, let me try both those.

好的，讓我試試這兩個。

So Promoted Listings first, in terms of supply and demand.

所以Promoted Listings首先，在供需方面。

Sellers give us more funds than we are currently able to spend, by a fairly meaningful amount.

賣家給我們的資金比我們目前能夠花費的要多，數量相當可觀。

So it's about having the right inventory on the site, which is the right number of visits and how much real estate per visit.

因此，這是關於在網站上擁有正確的庫存，即正確的訪問次數和每次訪問的房地產數量。

And then, as importantly, picking the right listing to show for any given visitor and then optimizing the bidding algorithms for how much people are willing to bid for each of those.

然後，同樣重要的是，選擇正確的列表顯示給任何給定的訪問者，然後根據人們願意為每個列表出價的數量優化出價算法。

So those are kind of the 3 components, right?

那麼這些是 3 個組成部分，對嗎？

So views times click-through rate times cost per click.

所以觀看次數乘以點擊率乘以每次點擊成本。

And on those, I think we've talked about in the past, how we've expanded the amount of inventory fairly significantly.

在這些方面，我認為我們過去已經討論過，我們如何相當顯著地擴大庫存量。

There can be probably some more inventory that's given over to Promoted Listings in time, but for now, we think we've probably mined that reasonably well.

可能會有更多庫存及時交給促銷列表，但就目前而言，我們認為我們可能已經相當好地挖掘了這些庫存。

We are at the early stages of having really good relevancy algorithms to pick exactly the right listing per visitor.

我們正處於擁有非常好的相關性算法的早期階段，可以為每個訪問者準確選擇正確的列表。

And that's a very similar journey to search in general.

這與一般的搜索過程非常相似。

So there's a lot more we think we can do around personalization and understanding item quality and all kinds of things to pick the right listing for the right visitor at the right time.

因此，我們認為我們可以圍繞個性化和了解商品質量以及各種事情做更多的事情，以便在正確的時間為正確的訪問者選擇正確的列表。

And then as we do that, we'll get more ability to raise CPCs.

然後當我們這樣做時，我們將獲得更多提高每次點擊費用的能力。

It's all really about delivering quality traffic that converts to sales for buyers.

這一切都是為了提供高質量的流量，轉化為買家的銷售。

So I think we're still in relatively early innings on Promoted Listings, but it's going to be more and more about how good are our algorithms.

所以我認為我們在推廣列表方面仍處於相對較早的階段，但它會越來越多地關注我們的算法有多好。

And then the opportunity to help our sellers invest in their growth, not just on Etsy, but off Etsy, and we know that there's a significant appetite from sellers to invest to buy traffic from other sources driving it to their Etsy shops.

然後有機會幫助我們的賣家投資於他們的增長，不僅僅是在 Etsy 上，而是在 Etsy 之外，我們知道賣家有很大的興趣投資購買來自其他來源的流量，將其驅動到他們的 Etsy 商店。

And thinking about ways to help them with that, we think, is also a rich opportunity going forward.

我們認為，思考如何幫助他們解決這個問題也是一個很好的機會。

The second question...?

第二個問題……？

Is about shipping.

關於運費。

Shipping.

船運。

Remind me again?

再次提醒我？

I'm sorry.

對不起。

To answer that, we haven't disclosed -- the short answer is we haven't disclosed what impact there is to conversion rates.

為了回答這個問題，我們沒有透露——簡短的回答是我們沒有透露對轉化率有什麼影響。

We are seeing -- Etsy has incorporated into the successful GMS growth we had during the holiday period, that we were competitive with other merchants out there in offering free shipping.

我們看到——Etsy 已經融入了我們在假期期間成功的 GMS 增長，我們在提供免費送貨方面與其他商家競爭。

And I think we believe, and we'll talk more about this at our Investor Day, we believe that shipping continues to be one of the areas of friction that we have in our shopping experience that we need to solve for.

我認為我們相信，並且我們將在投資者日更多地討論這一點，我們相信航運仍然是我們在購物體驗中需要解決的摩擦領域之一。

So without giving you a direct answer to correlate exactly how much increase in shipping has how much increase in GMS, we're continuing to work very hard on that area.

因此，在沒有直接回答運輸量增加多少與 GMS 增加多少相關聯的情況下，我們將繼續在該領域努力工作。

And it's not just shipping free or not free, it's shipping is a reasonable price relative to the competition.

而且它不僅僅是免費或不免費送貨，它的運費相對於競爭對手來說是一個合理的價格。

It's what do you do about return shipping and the transparency and communication with which our buyers are able to have confidence that they're going to get their item on time or when are they going to get their item, and we're working on all of those factors.

這是您如何處理退貨運費以及透明度和溝通，我們的買家可以通過這些信息相信他們會按時收到他們的物品或他們什麼時候會收到他們的物品，我們正在努力這些因素。

One of the things we've done in the last quarter was to bring online, not only USPS, but we also have Canadian Post, Royal Mail, we've brought on Aussie mail as well.

我們在上個季度所做的其中一件事就是實現在線，不僅是美國郵政，我們還有加拿大郵政、皇家郵政，我們也實現了澳大利亞郵件。

And so through those deals, we're able to offer better and better shipping rates to our sellers, as well as give them the ability to calculate shipping, which is the first -- which is the first step in being able to also track packages and other things and being able to get more consistency around what is the price that a buyer is going to receive.

因此，通過這些交易，我們能夠為我們的賣家提供越來越好的運費，並讓他們能夠計算運費，這是第一步——這是能夠跟踪包裹的第一步和其他事情，並能夠在買家將要收到的價格方面更加一致。

So we're working on a number of levers relative to shipping which we think over time is going to impact GMS growth.

因此，我們正在研究一些與航運相關的槓桿，我們認為隨著時間的推移，這些槓桿將影響 GMS 的增長。

And our next question comes from the line of Ygal Arounian of Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Ygal Arounian。

So I have a couple of questions.

所以我有幾個問題。

Maybe I'll just ask the first one and then ask a follow-up.

也許我只問第一個，然後再問後續問題。

So obviously, strong GMS growth in fourth quarter, especially when you think about the tough comps from last year.

很明顯，第四季度 GMS 增長強勁，尤其是當你考慮到去年的艱難競爭時。

Were there maybe 1 or 2 drivers that drove the strength more than the others?

是否有 1 或 2 個驅動力比其他驅動力更大？

I know that you called out a number of things, but was there 1 or 2 that kind of had an upsize impact relative to everything else?

我知道您提到了很多事情，但是否有 1 或 2 件事相對於其他事情產生了更大的影響？

Broadly speaking, there's 2 big levers, which is product and marketing.

從廣義上講，有兩大槓桿，即產品和營銷。

And both of them played a meaningful role, it wasn't really one or the other.

而且他們兩個都發揮了有意義的作用，並不是真正的一個或另一個。

So talking about product for a second.

所以先談談產品。

First, I would say that the work we did throughout 2018 paid off in the fourth quarter, but continuing in pay -- in 2018, we continued to improve the quality of search and discovery in a bunch of ways and that was very helpful.

首先，我要說的是，我們在整個 2018 年所做的工作在第四季度得到了回報，但繼續獲得報酬——在 2018 年，我們繼續以多種方式提高搜索和發現的質量，這非常有幫助。

We've talked about shipping, but that mattered, having more items that are free shipping in the fourth quarter mattered.

我們已經談到了運輸，但這很重要，第四季度有更多免費送貨的商品很重要。

Shining a brighter light on things that can be personalized or customized was very helpful.

對可以個性化或定制的事物給予更明亮的光照是非常有幫助的。

Making items that were on sale a little bit more visible was very helpful.

使打折商品更加顯眼非常有幫助。

So I'd point to a number of things that we did in the product that really made the buying experience more competitive and more exciting in the fourth quarter, and that made a big difference.

因此，我要指出我們在產品中所做的一些事情，這些事情確實使第四季度的購買體驗更具競爭力和令人興奮，這產生了很大的不同。

One other thing I'd say about product is we really focused this quarter on only doing things that were not just helpful in the holiday season but that could help us all year long.

關於產品，我要說的另一件事是，我們本季度真正專注於只做不僅對假期有幫助而且可以全年幫助我們的事情。

Something that was going to be really great for 6 days and then not matter for the rest of the year, we decided the opportunity cost was just too high.

有些東西在 6 天內真的很棒，然後在今年餘下的時間裡都無關緊要，我們認為機會成本太高了。

So we did things that we think were really beneficial in the fourth quarter and repeatable.

所以我們做了我們認為在第四季度真正有益並且可以重複的事情。

And then, as we discussed, we leaned harder into marketing and that was helpful.

然後，正如我們所討論的那樣，我們更加努力地進行營銷，這很有幫助。

And a good amount of that was things that were ROI positive and we -- sort of pay for themselves right away.

其中很大一部分是投資回報率積極的事情，我們 - 馬上為自己付出代價。

Others were things where we're testing the limits of marginal return and we found those limits.

在其他方面，我們正在測試邊際回報的極限，我們發現了這些極限。

And so you see us pulling back a little bit in Q1 and reconsolidating to be prepared to continue to invest in the rest of the year.

因此，您會看到我們在第一季度有所回落並重新整合，準備在今年剩餘時間繼續投資。

But broadly speaking, it really wasn't 1 or 2 things.

但從廣義上講，這真的不是一兩件事。

There were a number of things in product that really made a difference, and then our marketing investments, overall we feel good about in the fourth quarter.

產品中有很多事情確實產生了影響，然後是我們的營銷投資，總體而言，我們對第四季度感覺良好。

Great.

偉大的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

So I guess I wanted to dig in a little bit deeper on marketing.

所以我想我想更深入地研究營銷。

Maybe also partially tie it into the paid GMS, which is obviously up really strong, up 55% year-over-year, to kind of 20% of the total.

也許還可以部分地將其與付費 GMS 聯繫起來，這顯然非常強勁，同比增長 55%，佔總數的 20%。

Were -- I guess first, were, are things like TV and radio brand advertising, is that built into the paid GMS number?

是——我想首先是，電視和廣播品牌廣告之類的東西是內置在付費 GMS 號碼中的嗎？

Is that kind of strictly performance marketing types of things?

是那種嚴格的績效營銷類型的東西嗎？

And how do you see the long-term balance of what's an appropriate level of paid GMS versus organic?

您如何看待付費 GMS 與自然付費的適當水平之間的長期平衡？

And then second, as you think about the marketing, it feels like a lot of it worked really well and had contributed well to the fourth quarter GMS growth.

其次，當你考慮營銷時，感覺很多都運作良好，並為第四季度 GMS 的增長做出了很好的貢獻。

Now you're kind of stepping back and there are some things you're reassessing.

現在你有點退縮了，有些事情你正在重新評估。

Are there -- is there kind of a chance that you're talking about reaccelerating again in the second half and some quarters where you step back and some quarters where you push again, on some of the things that you've been testing, is there a chance that you kind of reach the maximum point, as you talked about the marginal return, and it doesn't make sense and there could be -- to reaccelerate, there's a chance that we don't get back to the levels that we saw in 4Q?

有沒有 - 你是否有可能在下半場談論再次加速，在你退後的某些季度和你再次推動的某些季度，在你一直在測試的一些事情上，是當你談到邊際回報時，你有可能達到最高點，這沒有意義，而且可能 - 重新加速，我們有可能無法回到之前的水平我們在第四季度看到了？

Yes, so I mean, so we absolutely are very, very conscious of those very things.

是的，所以我的意思是，所以我們絕對非常非常清楚這些事情。

So what we're trying to do is grow profitably.

所以我們要做的是實現盈利增長。

And I think we've been doing that, so what we want -- but we're not afraid to experiment and to learn from those experiments.

而且我認為我們一直在這樣做，所以我們想要什麼 - 但我們不害怕嘗試並從這些實驗中學習。

So performance -- so the performance marketing dollars is what drives our percentage of paid GMS.

所以性能 - 所以性能營銷美元是推動我們付費 GMS 百分比的因素。

So we said there was about $112 million of performance marketing dollars in 2018, and that's driving the 20% of GMS coming from paid.

所以我們說 2018 年有大約 1.12 億美元的績效營銷資金，這推動了 20% 的 GMS 來自付費。

And then there's an amount that you'll see in our 10-Q that we say we spent $129 million total in marketing, and that the balance of it is a comp that would be inclusive of what we spent on brand marketing and sort of upper-funnel initiatives.

然後你會在我們的 10-Q 中看到我們說我們在營銷上總共花費了 1.29 億美元，而它的餘額是一個補償，包括我們在品牌營銷和某種程度上花費的費用-漏斗計劃。

We talked about doing a test in the September, October time frame to learn, that we knew wasn't ROI positive, and then we turned that into a national campaign that we ran in November, December that we got closer to being ROI positive.

我們談到在 9 月、10 月的時間框架內進行測試以了解我們知道投資回報率不是積極的，然後我們將其轉變為我們在 11 月、12 月開展的全國性活動，我們更接近於投資回報率積極。

And we want to continue to optimize.

我們要繼續優化。

So for instance, one of the ways we optimized there was we initially had 2 different creative campaigns.

因此，例如，我們在那裡優化的方法之一是我們最初有 2 個不同的創意活動。

When we ran it nationally, we reduced it to 1 creative campaign.

當我們在全國范圍內運行時，我們將其減少為 1 個創意活動。

Even that 1 creative campaign had 2 different versions, and we learned one of the versions was performing better than the other, so we took one of them down to 25% of the rotation and the higher-performing one stayed up in 75% of the rotation.

即使是 1 個創意活動也有 2 個不同的版本，我們了解到其中一個版本的表現優於另一個版本，因此我們將其中一個版本的輪播率降低到 25%，而表現較好的版本則保持在 75% 的輪換迴轉。

We learned that certain networks performed better than other networks.

我們了解到某些網絡的性能優於其他網絡。

And so as we optimize, we get closer and closer and closer to that being ROI positive, just on its own merits.

因此，隨著我們的優化，我們越來越接近 ROI 為正，就其自身的優點而言。

What we want to do now is test new creative, and we want to also learn from the consumer sentiment, the intent to purchase and the top-of-mind awareness.

我們現在要做的是測試新的創意，我們還想了解消費者的情緒、購買意向和第一印象。

So we couple that with the actual quantitative results.

所以我們將其與實際的定量結果結合起來。

If we don't feel comfortable that it's actually yielding for us, we won't spend it any more.

如果我們對它實際上為我們產生收益感到不舒服，我們就不會再花它了。

And you sort of see us doing that here in Q1, when we said we'll pull back a bit.

當我們說我們會稍微後退時，您會看到我們在第一季度在這裡這樣做。

Because in Q4, we elevated our spend and we might have pushed it past the line that was ROI positive and we're pulling back to really assess what's truly incremental in our spend and what isn't.

因為在第 4 季度，我們提高了支出，我們可能已經將其推過了 ROI 積極的線，我們正在撤回以真正評估我們的支出真正增加的是什麼，什麼不是。

So we sort of are getting the commitment from this management team that we're going to spend if we believe it's ROI positive, and if not, we won't do it.

因此，如果我們認為投資回報率是積極的，我們就會從這個管理團隊那裡得到承諾，如果不是，我們就不會這樣做。

We've given you the guidance that we believe would allow us to test them in less mature markets and continue to invest as aggressively as we can in mature markets that we believe are ROI positive and then we'll continue to update you on that every quarter.

我們已經為您提供了指導，我們認為這些指導將使我們能夠在不太成熟的市場中對其進行測試，並繼續盡可能積極地投資於我們認為投資回報率是積極的成熟市場，然後我們將繼續更新您的信息四分之一。

Sorry for the long-winded answer, but I think there's some blend of there in there where there are some things that are not ROI positive yet and we will stop spending them if we don't get commitments -- we don't get conviction that they are ROI positive.

很抱歉冗長的回答，但我認為那裡有些混合，有些東西的投資回報率還不是積極的，如果我們沒有得到承諾，我們將停止花費它們——我們沒有得到信念他們的投資回報率是積極的。

Long term, I mean, Google is the one channel right now that we feel we've got a high degree of conviction that at certain spend levels, we get strong ROI.

從長遠來看，我的意思是，谷歌是目前我們認為我們高度確信在某些支出水平上我們可以獲得強勁投資回報率的唯一渠道。

It stands to reason that we ought to be able to make others of these channels work.

按理說，我們應該能夠使這些渠道中的其他渠道發揮作用。

It really seems that we ought to be able to.

看來我們真的應該能夠做到。

And so we're testing and learning our way in.

所以我們正在測試和學習我們的方法。

So if your question is, is it possible that they don't work?

因此，如果您的問題是，它們是否可能不起作用？

Yes, it's possible, but we're going to test and learn and I believe that we can make several more channels that are scalable, potentially substantial channels, work in time and that these will have been great R&D investments that pay off as we scale these new channels.

是的，這是可能的，但我們將進行測試和學習，我相信我們可以製作更多可擴展的渠道，潛在的大量渠道，及時工作，這些將是巨大的研發投資，隨著我們的規模擴大而得到回報這些新渠道。

And our next question comes from the line of Laura Champine of Loop Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Laura Champine。

So first, a quick housekeeping one, can you give me headcount at the end of the year?

那麼首先，快速整理一下，你能告訴我年底的人數嗎？

And then secondly, can you talk a little bit more about your cloud conversion, how that is proceeding at or off pace and what you expect to learn and be able to gain as that conversion progresses this year?

其次，你能否多談談你的雲轉換，它是如何按步調進行的，以及你希望在今年的轉換過程中學到什麼並能夠獲得什麼？

Yes, headcount, 874.

是的，總人數，874 人。

So 874 in headcount, and on cloud, it's going on pace.

所以 874 名員工和雲計算都在按部就班地發展。

We're pleased with the progress, it's going largely on track.

我們對進展感到滿意，它在很大程度上走上正軌。

Substantial parts of Etsy are now being served from the cloud, and substantial parts of our machine learning are happening in the cloud, specifically the training of the models is now happening in the cloud, but the real-time execution of the models is still happening on-premise as of this moment, to give you a little peek under the covers.

Etsy 的大部分內容現在由雲端提供服務，我們的機器學習的大部分內容都在雲端進行，特別是模型的訓練現在在雲端進行，但模型的實時執行仍在進行目前已在內部部署，讓您一窺幕後情況。

So what does that really mean?

那到底是什麼意思呢？

The cloud is not an end to itself, it only exists as a means to the end of having a better experience on Etsy.

雲本身並不是目的，它的存在只是為了在 Etsy 上獲得更好的體驗。

So for example, by having machine learning model training in the cloud, we can now start to run more sophisticated models.

因此，例如，通過在雲端進行機器學習模型訓練，我們現在可以開始運行更複雜的模型。

We're not as capacity constrained as we've been when we were in our own data centers.

我們不像在我們自己的數據中心時那樣受到容量限制。

And so that starts to translate into more robust algorithms to power better search, and to do it in a more personalized way.

因此，這開始轉化為更強大的算法，以支持更好的搜索，並以更個性化的方式進行搜索。

So that -- we're excited about that, and we're also working on how do we have the right cost discipline so that we don't use more compute than we need, but we also don't unnecessarily constrain that compute, so that we can really take advantage of a lot of these new models and technologies.

所以——我們對此感到很興奮，我們也在研究如何制定正確的成本原則，這樣我們就不會使用比我們需要的更多的計算，但我們也不會不必要地限制計算，這樣我們就可以真正利用很多這些新模型和技術。

And our next question comes from the line of Marvin Fong of BTIG Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG Capital Markets 的 Marvin Fong。

Just a couple of quick ones.

只是幾個快速的。

On first, you mentioned in the press release that the conversion rates for desktop, mobile web and mobile app are all up, but that mobile web still seems to be about half of desktop, and I guess desktop is now tied with mobile app for the best conversion rate.

首先，您在新聞稿中提到桌面、移動網絡和移動應用的轉化率都在上升，但移動網絡似乎仍然只有桌面的一半左右，我猜桌面現在與移動應用捆綁在一起最佳轉化率。

Could you just talk a little bit more about -- should we think that mobile web will kind of stay at half the conversion rate of desktop?

您能否再多談談——我們是否應該認為移動網絡的轉換率會保持在桌面轉換率的一半？

Or is there room for that relative percentage to go up?

或者該相對百分比是否有上升空間？

Yes, good question.

是的，好問題。

I think we're evolving to, right now, largely the desktop, mobile web and the app are -- and the Buy on Etsy app are largely the same thing presented on 3 different platforms.

我認為我們現在正在發展，主要是桌面、移動網絡和應用程序——在 Etsy 應用程序上購買在 3 個不同平台上呈現的內容大致相同。

We're moving to a place where each of those platforms serves a different job, sometimes with a different audience, and we're learning to tailor the platform to the audience and the job.

我們正在轉移到一個地方，其中每個平台都服務於不同的工作，有時針對不同的受眾，我們正在學習根據受眾和工作定制平台。

For example, mobile web is disproportionately newer users, and once people become really habitual buyers.

例如，移動網絡不成比例地是新用戶，一旦人們成為真正的習慣性購買者。

So for example, habitual buyers disproportionately use the mobile app.

因此，例如，習慣性買家不成比例地使用移動應用程序。

And so starting to think about what is the purpose of each of these platforms and therefore, how you tailor it to the right audience, I think, is appropriate.

因此開始考慮每個平台的目的是什麼，因此，我認為如何為合適的受眾量身定制是合適的。

Mobile web is a lighter experience and it may have a less convicted audience, and so it may have a lower conversion rate than other things.

移動網絡是一種更輕鬆的體驗，它的受眾可能較少被定罪，因此它的轉化率可能低於其他事物。

That doesn't mean that we're satisfied with the conversion rate, and I believe it can and should go up over time as we execute well.

這並不意味著我們對轉化率感到滿意，而且我相信隨著我們執行良好，它可以而且應該隨著時間的推移而上升。

I continue to think that should be true of the Buy on Etsy app and the desktop as well.

我仍然認為 Buy on Etsy 應用程序和桌面也應該如此。

How they will perform relative to each other is hard for me to predict right now, but I see opportunities across all 3.

我現在很難預測它們相對於彼此的表現如何，但我在這三個方面都看到了機會。

Great.

偉大的。

Just one other quick housekeeping, if you're able to speak to these statistics you've given in the past, what was the percentage of GMS from repeat buyers?

只是另一個快速整理，如果你能說出你過去提供的這些統計數據，那麼來自回頭客的 GMS 的百分比是多少？

I apologize if I missed that.

如果我錯過了，我深表歉意。

And then also, what percent of sellers are using Promoted Listings?

還有，有多少賣家在使用 Promoted Listings？

So first, let me start by defining what we call new versus repeat.

所以首先，讓我首先定義我們所說的新與重複。

So we call a new buyer somebody who's never ever used Etsy before and a repeat buyer is somebody who has ever used Etsy, even if it was 5 years ago.

所以我們稱新買家為以前從未使用過 Etsy 的人，而重複買家是曾經使用過 Etsy 的人，即使是 5 年前。

So I think last quarter, we said it was 83% of our GMS was from repeat buyers.

所以我認為上個季度，我們說 83% 的 GMS 來自回頭客。

This quarter, it's about 80%, a little over 80%.

這個季度，大約是80%，略高於80%。

And so and this time, we started talking about the other split is the habitual versus multiple versus active, just a regular active buyer.

因此，這一次，我們開始談論另一種分裂是習慣性買家、多重買家和活躍買家，只是一個普通的活躍買家。

So we're really focused on those segments of buyers that some of our marketing investment is actually intended to lure back in buyers that might not have been on Etsy's site for a number of years that other companies might characterize those as new buyers.

因此，我們真正關注的是那些買家群體，我們的一些營銷投資實際上是為了吸引那些可能多年沒有出現在 Etsy 網站上的買家，而其他公司可能會將這些買家描述為新買家。

So I just wanted to be clear about that.

所以我只想澄清一下。

And I'm sorry, was there one more part to your question?

抱歉，您的問題還有其他內容嗎？

Yes, just the percentage of sellers who are now using Promoted Listings, if you're able to speak to that?

是的，只是現在使用促銷列表的賣家的百分比，如果你能說的話？

Yes, so it's 16% of sellers have adopted Promoted Listings.

是的，所以有 16% 的賣家採用了 Promoted Listings。

I would call out that not all sellers are equal in terms of their sales on Etsy, and so one thing we've talked about in the past is that some of our largest sellers are disproportionately represented on Pro List, so it's -- I just want to caution us away from thinking that the #1 way to grow Pro List is to grow the percentage of sellers that are currently adopting it.

我要指出的是，並非所有賣家在 Etsy 上的銷售額都是平等的，所以我們過去談到的一件事是，我們一些最大的賣家在 Pro List 上的比例過高，所以——我只是想提醒我們不要認為增長 Pro List 的第一方法是增加目前採用它的賣家的百分比。

We've shared that the amount of investment capacity they've given us is well in excess of our ability to spend it.

我們已經分享過，他們給我們的投資能力遠遠超過了我們的支出能力。

So that gives you some sense of adding more sellers may not directly translate into driving more Pro List sales.

因此，這讓您感覺增加更多賣家可能不會直接轉化為推動更多 Pro List 銷售。

It's more around improving the relevance of our algorithms and bidding engines and things like that.

它更多地是圍繞提高我們的算法和投標引擎以及類似的東西的相關性。

Okay, all right, I understand.

好的，好的，我明白了。

But it's actually up from, I think it ended '17 at 15%, so it did improve, so that's positive.

但實際上，我認為它以 15% 結束了 17 年，所以它確實有所改善，所以這是積極的。

Yes, we're very focused internally on thinking about stages of growth.

是的，我們內部非常專注於思考成長階段。

Someone who's brand-new to Etsy is listing their first listing, Promoted Listings isn't necessarily the first thing that you would encourage them to do.

剛接觸 Etsy 的人正在列出他們的第一個列表，Promoted Listings 不一定是您鼓勵他們做的第一件事。

You want to see them get some success, really learn how Etsy works, have high-quality listings, high-quality photos, get some feedback, and once they've really got a bit of a track record and understand how it works, then they might be ready to go to Promoted Listings.

你想看到他們取得一些成功，真正了解 Etsy 的運作方式，擁有高質量的列表，高質量的照片，獲得一些反饋，一旦他們真的有了一點業績記錄並了解它是如何運作的，那麼他們可能已準備好前往推薦列表。

And so thinking about speaking to the right audience, with different tools, including Promoted Listings, is something we're very much moving in that direction.

因此，考慮使用不同的工具（包括推薦列表）與合適的受眾進行交流，是我們正在朝著這個方向努力的方向。

And one other point I'll make is because active sellers grew by 9%, the denominator got bigger.

我要說的另一點是因為活躍賣家增長了 9%，分母變大了。

So the actual count of sellers that took Promoted Listings grew by more than 16%.

因此，使用 Promoted Listings 的實際賣家數量增長了 16% 以上。

Right.

正確的。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Bookbinder of IFS Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 IFS 證券的 Ronald Bookbinder。

I have a question about your use of cash.

我有一個關於你使用現金的問題。

You have very strong cash flow and it seems to be even getting better.

你的現金流非常強勁，而且似乎還在變得更好。

You've done a great job of buying back shares at advantageous prices, but are there opportunities to use the cash for other things, possibly helping to finance the merchants as they build inventory towards holiday?

您在以優惠價格回購股票方面做得很好，但是否有機會將現金用於其他用途，可能有助於在商家為假期建立庫存時為他們提供資金？

Or what do you look for as uses of cash?

或者您尋找的現金用途是什麼？

High return on invested capital is, I guess, the guiding principle there.

我猜想，高投資回報率是那裡的指導原則。

So we really look pretty open-mindedly at all of the things we could build, buy or partner with, and we look at the net present value of all of those opportunities.

因此，對於我們可以建造、購買或合作的所有東西，我們真的非常開放，我們也會審視所有這些機會的淨現值。

So last year, for instance, in addition to share repurchase, we entered into a referral agreement with DaWanda in Germany, which allowed us to not only migrate many of their sellers over to Etsy's platform, but we redirected all of their traffic to Etsy, and that was an investment of about $35 million in cash at the time we did that transaction.

所以去年，例如，除了股票回購之外，我們還與德國的 DaWanda 簽訂了推薦協議，這使我們不僅可以將他們的許多賣家遷移到 Etsy 的平台，而且我們將他們的所有流量都重定向到了 Etsy，在我們進行該交易時，這是一筆約 3500 萬美元的現金投資。

So that's 1 example of putting cash to work to grow a geography faster.

所以這是將現金投入工作以更快地發展地理區域的一個例子。

And we've looked at other things that -- that opportunistically that we've determined weren't going to be a positive NPV for us and we decided not to pursue.

我們已經研究了其他事情 - 我們已經確定的機會主義不會對我們產生積極的 NPV，因此我們決定不追求。

So what we're constantly evaluating those sorts of strategies and of course, putting our dollars to work on internal investments that we've -- so we're building up our product development engineering bench so that we can "build things" faster that we think will have a positive yield as well.

因此，我們不斷評估這些類型的策略，當然還有將我們的資金投入到我們擁有的內部投資中——因此我們正在建立我們的產品開發工程平台，以便我們能夠更快地“構建東西”我們認為也會有積極的收益。

And given the strong cash position that you ended the year at, why do you feel the need to take out a $200 million revolver?

鑑於您年底的現金狀況良好，您為什麼覺得有必要拿出 2 億美元的左輪手槍？

I would just characterize that as good corporate housekeeping.

我只是將其描述為良好的公司內部管理。

We have access to capital at attractive rates.

我們能夠以極具吸引力的利率獲得資金。

There's very, very low unused fees on that balance, and that gives us access to capital markets at a time when we can.

該餘額中有非常非常低的未使用費用，這使我們能夠在可能的時候進入資本市場。

And there may be a recession in the future, when the credit markets would seize up and we wouldn't have access to that capital.

未來可能會出現衰退，屆時信貸市場將失靈，我們將無法獲得這些資金。

So it's just for us a good policy to have that kind of flexibility and access to cash so we have it if and when we would need it.

因此，擁有這種靈活性和獲得現金的途徑對我們來說是一個很好的政策，這樣我們就可以在需要的時候擁有它。

So there's not some sort of major acquisition on the horizon?

所以不會有某種重大收購即將到來？

Well, if there were, you'd know I couldn't answer that question, really, so.

好吧，如果有的話，你就會知道我無法回答這個問題，真的，所以。

I'm showing no further questions at this time.

我現在沒有進一步的問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you all for participating in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝大家參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect.

這確實結束了程序，你們都可以斷開連接。

Everyone, have a great day.

大家，祝你有美好的一天。