伊頓 (ETN) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience in holding, and welcome to the Eaton Fourth Quarter of 2020 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Just a brief reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加伊頓公司2020年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）溫馨提示：本次會議正在錄音。

I'm now happy to turn the conference over to Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Yan Jin.

現在我很高興將會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁嚴瑾。

Hi. Good morning. I'm Yan Jin, Eaton's Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earning Call. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; and Rick Fearon, Vice Chairman and our Chief Financial and Planning Officer. Our agenda today include opening remarks by Craig, highlighting the company's performance in the fourth quarter. As we have done in our past calls, we'll be taking questions at the end of Craig's comments.

大家好，早安。我是伊頓公司投資者關係資深副總裁嚴瑾。感謝各位參加伊頓2020年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的還有我們的董事長兼執行長克雷格·阿諾德先生，以及副董事長兼財務長兼首席規劃官里克·費倫先生。今天的議程包括克雷格先生的開場致辭，他將重點介紹公司第四季的業績。與以往的電話會議一樣，我們將在克雷格先生演講結束後進行問答環節。

The press release today and the presentation we'll go through today has been posted on our website at www.eaton.com. Please note that both the press release and the presentation include reconciliation to non-GAAP measures. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be ready for replay.

今天發布的新聞稿和簡報已發佈在公司網站 www.eaton.com 上。請注意，新聞稿和簡報均包含與非GAAP財務指標的調節表。本次電話會議的網路直播可在公司網站上觀看，並可隨時重播。

I would like to remind you that our comments today will include the statements related to the expected future results of the company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties and are also described in our earnings release and the presentation. They're also outlined in our related 8-K filing.

我想提醒各位，我們今天的發言將包含有關公司未來預期業績的陳述，因此屬於前瞻性陳述。由於許多風險和不確定因素，我們的實際業績可能與預測有重大差異，這些風險和不確定因素已在我們的獲利報告和簡報中有所描述，並在相關的8-K文件中也有概述。

So with that, I will turn it over to Craig.

那麼，接下來就交給克雷格了。

Thanks, Yan. Appreciate it. And we'll start on Page 3. And we naturally have a lot of good news to talk about today, but I'd say we'd be remiss if we didn't begin by at least acknowledging Rick Fearon and his upcoming retirement. As most of you know, Rick will reach mandatory retirement age of 65 in March and will retire on March 31. And so I'd like to extend a sincere thanks to Rick for his 19 years of service to Eaton. Rick has obviously played just an instrumental role in the transformation and shaping of our company and the company that we have today. And he's been a trusted partner to the management team, to our Board, and certainly to me personally. And looking back, Rick has participated in more than 75 of these earnings calls, and this will be his last one. So we certainly wish Rick and his family well as he makes this transition onto life after Eaton, if there is life after Eaton. I'm not sure, Rick. But Rick will also be around for another couple of months and also will attend the investor meeting on March 1.

謝謝，嚴。非常感謝。我們從第三頁開始。今天我們當然有很多好消息要宣布，但如果我們不先向里克費倫（Rick Fearon）及其即將退休表示祝賀，那就太失職了。如大家所知，瑞克將於三月達到65歲的強制退休年齡，並於3月31日正式退休。因此，我謹代表伊頓公司向里克致以誠摯的謝意，感謝他為公司服務19年。里克顯然在我們公司的轉型和發展過程中發揮了至關重要的作用，並成就了我們今天的伊頓。他一直是管理團隊、董事會以及我個人的可靠夥伴。回顧過去，瑞克參加了超過75次財報電話會議，這將是他最後一次。我們衷心祝福瑞克和他的家人一切順利，開啟伊頓之後的生活——如果伊頓之後還有生活的話。里克，我也不確定。但里克還會繼續留任幾個月，並且會出席 3 月 1 日的投資者會議。

Moving to Page 4. I'd also like to welcome Tom Okray to Eaton as well. Tom becomes Eaton's CFO effective April 1. Tom was previously the CFO of W.W. Grainger and joined the team in January. Throughout his career, he's held various leadership positions at Advanced Auto Parts, at Amazon and GM. Tom is a seasoned CFO with a strong track record of success, and we anticipate he will bring a very unique perspective and set of skills to the role here at Eaton. He's operational, he's growth-oriented, and he just has outstanding knowledge of distribution channels. Like Rick, Tom is also a global leader who's lived around the world, including several countries in Europe as well as Korea. And so we're very happy to welcome Tom to the Eaton team as well and look forward to his contributions in the future.

接下來請翻到第4頁。我也想歡迎湯姆·奧克雷(Tom Okray)加入伊頓(Eaton)。湯姆將於4月1日正式就任伊頓財務長(CFO)。此前，湯姆曾擔任W.W. Grainger的CFO，並於今年1月加入伊頓團隊。在他的職業生涯中，他曾在Advanced Auto Parts、亞馬遜和通用汽車(GM)擔任過多個領導職務。湯姆是一位經驗豐富的CFO，擁有卓越的業績記錄，我們期待他能為伊頓帶來獨特的視角和技能。他既具備營運能力，又具有成長意識，並且對分銷管道有著深入的了解。與里克(Rick)一樣，湯姆也是一位具有全球視野的領導者，曾在世界各地生活，包括歐洲的多個國家以及韓國。因此，我們非常高興地歡迎湯姆加入伊頓團隊，並期待他未來為公司做出貢獻。

Now on the move to more good news and turning to Page 5. Here, we summarize a number of recent noteworthy accomplishments. And I'll begin with the recent announcements to acquire Tripp Lite for $1.65 billion and Cobham Mission Systems for $2.8 billion, 2 very strategic acquisitions that improve the profitability, and quite frankly, the growth outlook for our company. The acquisition of Tripp Lite will enhance the breadth of our edge computing and distributed IT product portfolio and will also expand our single-phase UPS business in the United States. We're paying approximately 12x 2020 EBITDA, 11x estimated 2021 EBITDA, and we expect this transaction to close in the middle part of 2021.

現在讓我們來看看更多好消息，請翻到第五頁。這裡，我們將總結近期一些值得關注的成就。首先，我要介紹的是近期宣布的兩項重要收購：以16.5億美元收購Tripp Lite，以及以28億美元收購Cobham Mission Systems。這兩項極具策略意義的收購將提升公司的獲利能力，坦白說，也將改善公司的成長前景。收購Tripp Lite將拓展我們在邊緣運算和分散式IT產品組合方面的實力，同時也將擴大我們在美國的單相UPS業務。此次收購的市盈率約為2020年EBITDA的12倍，預計2021年EBITDA的11倍，我們預計交易將於2021年年中完成。

Yesterday, we also announced the acquisition of Cobham Mission Systems. Cobham is a leading manufacturer of air radar refueling systems, environmental systems and actuation. And Cobham also adds highly complementary products to our company and has a strong position, importantly, on growing defense platforms. We're paying approximately 14x 2020 EBITDA, 13x estimated '21 EBITDA, and we expect this transaction to close in the early part of Q4.

昨天，我們也宣布了對科巴姆任務系統公司（Cobham Mission Systems）的收購。科巴姆是空中雷達加油系統、環境系統和作動裝置的領先製造商。科巴姆的產品與我們公司高度互補，並且在不斷增長的國防平台領域擁有強大的市場地位。此次收購價格約為2020年EBITDA的14倍，2021年預計EBITDA的13倍，我們預計交易將於第四季初完成。

And if we can just turn to Q4 specifically, we certainly have a stronger-than-expected quarter, and we're pleased with our solid results. Our team just continued to execute well despite the pandemic. Q4 earnings per share of $1.18 on a GAAP basis and $1.28 on an adjusted basis. Our Q4 revenues of $4.7 billion were down 5% organically, which was at the high end of the range that we provided, and it's up 3% versus Q3. And our decremental margins were 21%, also better than the guidance of 25% that we provided.

如果具體來看第四季度，我們本季的業績確實超出預期，我們對穩健的業績感到滿意。儘管受到疫情影響，我們的團隊依然保持了良好的執行力。第四季以美國通用會計準則（GAAP）計算的每股盈餘為1.18美元，調整後為1.28美元。第四季營收為47億美元，年減5%，處於我們先前預測區間的高端，但較第三季成長3%。此外，我們的利潤率為21%，也高於我們先前給出的25%的預期。

I'm also very pleased that with very strong free cash flow. I mean our operating cash flows were $943 million, and our free cash flows were $845 million, both of which exceeded prior year levels. And for 2020, we generated $2.6 billion of free cash flow, which was at the top end of our guidance range, and an all-time record for free cash flow to sales at 14.3%. So a lot of really positive kind of things to talk about there as the business and the company continues to execute well.

我也非常高興地看到我們強勁的自由現金流。我們的經營現金流為9.43億美元，自由現金流為8.45億美元，均超過上年水準。 2020年，我們創造了26億美元的自由現金流，達到預期範圍的上限，自由現金流與銷售額比也創下歷史新高，達到14.3%。因此，有許多非常積極的方面值得一提，因為公司和業務都持續且有效率地運作。

Turning to Page 6, we summarize our Q4 financial results. And I'll only note a few items on this page. First, acquisitions increased sales by 2%, which was more than offset by the divestiture of Lighting and Automotive Fluid Conveyance, which reduced sales by 8%.

翻到第6頁，我們總結了第四季的財務表現。本頁我只簡單提幾點。首先，收購使銷售額成長了2%，但剝離照明和汽車流體輸送業務導致銷售額下降了8%，完全抵消了這一成長。

Second, our segment margins of 17.4% were very strong, for sure, and only 40 basis points below prior year despite lower volumes. And then just as a bit of a reminder, I would note that we record all of our charges related to acquisitions, divestitures and restructuring at corporate instead of at the segment level, which hopefully makes it easier to model the company going forward.

其次，我們17.4%的部門利潤率確實非常強勁，儘管銷量有所下降，但僅比去年同期低40個基點。另外，我想提醒大家，我們所有與收購、剝離和重組相關的費用都計入公司層面，而不是部門層面，這樣應該有助於未來公司模型的建構。

Moving to Page 7, we summarize our Electrical Americas segment. Revenues were down 18%, and this was made up of a 1% decline in organic revenues and then 17% mainly due to the divestiture of Lighting. In this segment, we saw strong growth in data centers and residential markets, which was offset by weakness in industrial and commercial markets.

接下來翻到第7頁，我們總結一下美洲電氣業務板塊的狀況。該板塊營收下降了18%，其中1%為內生性營收下降，17%主要歸因於照明業務的剝離。在該板塊，資料中心和住宅市場實現了強勁成長，但工業和商業市場的疲軟抵消了部分成長。

Operating margins increased 120 basis points to 21.1%, and this very strong margin performance was due to really effective cost-containment actions, but also aided by the divestiture of Lighting. This combination resulted in very strong decremental margin performance of 15%.

營業利益率提升120個基點至21.1%，此強勁的利潤率表現得益於卓有成效的成本控制措施，同時也受惠於照明業務的剝離。這些因素共同促成了15%的利潤率下降，表現同樣十分優異。

While orders were down 1% on a rolling 12-month basis, data center orders were particularly strong and actually up double digit. Our backlog grew by 12%, and this was driven by strength in both residential and data center markets.

雖然過去12個月的滾動訂單量下降了1%，但資料中心訂單表現尤為強勁，實現了兩位數的成長。我們的積壓訂單成長了12%，這主要得益於住宅和資料中心市場的強勁成長。

Lastly, and as I mentioned at the beginning, we're very pleased to announce the acquisition of Tripp Lite. This business is just a tremendous strategic fit with our existing Electrical franchise and allow us to continue to capitalize on this digitalization trend that requires edge computing. And when you think about some of the future estimates suggesting that some 75% of enterprise-generated data will be created and processed via edge computing, we expect this rapid growth to continue for some time to come.

最後，正如我開頭所提到的，我們非常高興地宣布收購 Tripp Lite。這項業務與我們現有的電氣業務策略高度契合，使我們能夠繼續掌握數位化趨勢帶來的機遇，而這一趨勢需要邊緣運算的支援。考慮到一些未來預測表明，大約 75% 的企業生成數據將透過邊緣運算創建和處理，我們預計這種快速成長勢頭將在未來一段時間內持續下去。

Next, on Page 8, we show the results of our Electrical Global segment. Revenues declined 5% with a 7% decline in organic revenue, partially offset by 2% positive currency. And this was better than the midpoint of our expectations for the quarter. The lower organic sales were driven by weakness, not surprisingly, in oil and gas and industrial markets. And if you exclude oil and gas and industrial businesses, kind of more project-driven businesses, Europe was down slightly, and Asia Pacific was actually up low single digit.

接下來，在第8頁，我們展示了電氣全球業務板塊的表現。該板塊營收下降5%，其中有機營收下降7%，部分被2%的匯率利多所抵銷。這一業績好於我們對該季度業績的預期中位數。不出所料，有機銷售下降主要受石油天然氣和工業市場疲軟的影響。如果剔除石油天然氣和工業業務（這些業務更偏向專案驅動），歐洲市場略有下滑，而亞太地區市場則實現了個位數低成長。

Operating margins declined 40 basis points on a year-over-year basis. And here, once again, decremental margins were well managed at 25%. In this segment, our orders declined 6% on a rolling 12-month basis with continued weakness in oil and gas and industrial markets. And excluding oil and gas and industrial markets, orders were down 1%. And we saw strength in data centers and residential markets. And in fact, data centers were actually up some 30%.

營業利益率較去年同期下降40個基點。不過，我們再次有效控制了利潤率下降幅度，並維持在25%的水準。該業務板塊的訂單量在過去12個月滾動平均值中下降了6%，主要原因是石油天然氣和工業市場持續疲軟。若剔除石油天然氣和工業市場，訂單量下降了1%。數據中心和住宅市場表現強勁。事實上，資料中心訂單量增加了約30%。

We also continue to expand our backlog, which was up 14%, driven once again by strength in residential and data center markets. Lastly, we were pleased to announce in mid-December an agreement to buy 50% of HuanYu High Tech, which is based in China. HuanYu manufactures low-voltage circuit breakers and contactors in China and also throughout Asia Pacific. This investment will provide us access to a really strong portfolio of products, and it will open up significant growth opportunities for our company throughout Asia Pacific. And we'd expect this transaction to close sometime in Q2.

我們的積壓訂單量持續成長，成長率達14%，這再次得益於住宅和資料中心市場的強勁表現。此外，我們很高興地宣布，在12月中旬達成協議，收購總部位於中國的環宇高科50%的股份。環宇在中國及整個亞太地區生產低壓斷路器和接觸器。這項投資將使我們獲得強大的產品組合，並為我們在亞太地區的業務成長帶來巨大的機會。我們預計交易將於第二季完成。

Turning to Page 9, we summarize our Hydraulics segment. Revenues were up 2%, which was all organic. This was much better than the down 7.5% at the midpoint of our guidance as markets just continued to recover faster than anticipated, and especially, I'd say, in China and in Europe. Operating margins were 10.5%, up 70 basis points from Q3.

翻到第9頁，我們總結一下液壓業務板塊的狀況。營收成長2%，全部為內生成長。這遠優於我們先前預期的7.5%的降幅（中位數），因為市場復甦速度持續快於預期，尤其是在中國和歐洲市場。營業利益率為10.5%，較第三季成長70個基點。

The momentum in this segment really continued really throughout the quarter, resulting in a 25% increase in Q4 orders with strength in both agriculture and construction equipment markets. We're working towards closing the Hydraulics transaction by the end of the first quarter. I would also add though, but given some of the time needed to complete all of the regulatory approvals, we wouldn't be surprised to see this slip into the early part of the second quarter.

該業務板塊的成長勢頭在整個季度持續強勁，第四季度訂單量增長了25%，農業和建築設備市場表現尤為突出。我們正努力爭取在第一季末完成液壓業務的交易。不過，考慮到完成所有監管審批所需的時間，我們預計該交易可能會推遲到第二季初完成。

Next on Page 10, we have the results for our Aerospace segment. As expected, revenues declined 13%, down 25% organically, partially offset by an 11% increase from the acquisition of Souriau and 1% positive currency. The organic revenue decline was primarily driven by the continued downturn, as we all know, in commercial markets, partially offset by double-digit growth in military sales. Operating margins declined to 13 -- excuse me, to 18.3%, but we see these at still very healthy levels of performance.

接下來，在第10頁，我們來看看航空航太業務的業績。如預期，營收下降了13%，其中有機成長下降了25%，部分被收購Souriau帶來的11%的成長和1%的匯率收益所抵銷。眾所周知，有機營收下降的主要原因是商業市場的持續低迷，但軍售的兩位數成長部分抵消了這一影響。營業利益率下降至13%——抱歉，應該是18.3%，但我們認為這些指標仍然處於非常健康的水平。

And lastly, yesterday, we announced the acquisition of Cobham Mission Systems. Cobham, a technology leader in important defense aerospace product lines, will add a number of complementary capabilities to our Aerospace business. The acquisition will significantly increase our exposure to, once again, growing defense platforms. It will enhance our fuel systems business and strongly position our Aerospace business for future growth.

最後，昨天我們宣布收購科巴姆任務系統公司（Cobham Mission Systems）。科巴姆是國防航空航太重要產品線的技術領導者，其收購將為我們的航空航太業務增添多項互補能力。此次收購將顯著提升我們在不斷成長的國防平台領域的佈局，增強我們的燃油系統業務，並為航空航太業務的未來成長奠定堅實基礎。

Moving to Page 11, we summarize our Vehicle segment. Revenues here declined 7%, including a 1% organic decline, negative 5% from the divestiture of our Automotive Fluid Conveyance business and 1% headwind from negative currency. The 1% decline in organic revenues was once again much better than the 8.5% decline at the midpoint of our guidance as both light motor vehicle and truck markets have continued to rebound more quickly than we anticipated. We had particular strength actually in South America and in Asia Pacific.

翻到第11頁，我們總結一下車輛業務板塊。該板塊收入下降了7%，其中內生性收入下降1%，剝離汽車流體輸送業務導致收入下降5%，匯率不利因素導致收入下降1%。內生性收入下降1%遠優於我們先前預期的8.5%的降幅，因為輕型汽車和卡車市場均持續復甦，速度超出預期。我們在南美和亞太地區的業績表現尤其強勁。

NAFTA Class 8 production was down 6% in Q4, but once again, this was better than expected. We're certainly happy also to see the rebound in operating margins of 16.6%, down just slightly versus prior year and up 260 basis points sequentially. And our decremental margin performance here was once again very solid at 23%.

北美自由貿易協定（NAFTA）8級原油第四季產量下降6%，但再次優於預期。我們同樣欣喜地看到營業利潤率回升至16.6%，僅略低於上年同期水平，較上季成長260個基點。此外，我們的增量利潤率表現也十分穩健，達到23%。

Turning to Page 12. We show the results of our eMobility segment. Revenues increased 13%, including 11% organic and 2% currency tailwind. Organic growth was also here much higher than the 1.5% growth at the midpoint of our guidance. We experienced solid growth across all regions, which was driven by both high-voltage electrical solutions for passenger cars as well as low-voltage solutions for commercial vehicles.

請翻至第12頁。我們展示了電動出行業務板塊的業績。營收成長13%，其中11%為內生成長，2%為匯率利多。內生成長也遠高於我們先前1.5%的預期中位數。所有地區的業績均實現了穩健成長，這主要得益於乘用車高壓電氣解決方案和商用車低壓電氣解決方案的強勁表現。

Operating margins were a negative 5.9%. And once again, it's just a reflection of the fact that we continue to invest more in R&D and program implementation in this fast-growing segment of the company. We have a robust pipeline of opportunities, and we continue to see electrification as a significant growth opportunity into the future.

營業利益率為-5.9%。這再次反映出我們持續加大對公司這項快速成長業務部門的研發和專案實施投入。我們擁有大量潛在項目，並且我們仍然認為電氣化是未來重要的成長機會。

So before we turn our attention to '21, I'd like to take a minute to really summarize our results for 2020, and those are shown on Page 13. First, while the pandemic caused certainly an unprecedented economic volatility and downturn, we remain focused on delivering for all of our stakeholders. We remain focused on keeping our employees safe, delivering for our customers, and certainly supporting our communities. And we're also proud of how well we performed for our shareholders. We took the appropriate cost-reduction and cost measurement -- cost-management measures to ensure solid decremental margins of 23% and resilient cash flow of $2.6 billion. Our free cash flow to adjusted earnings conversion was very robust at 149%. And free cash flow to sales was 14.3%, 90 basis points over 2019 and another all-time record.

在展望2021年之前，我想花一點時間總結我們2020年的業績，具體內容請見第13頁。首先，儘管疫情造成了前所未有的經濟波動和下滑，但我們始終致力於為所有利害關係人創造價值。我們始終專注於保障員工安全、滿足客戶需求，並積極支持我們所在的社區。同時，我們也為公司為股東創造的優異業績感到自豪。我們採取了適當的成本削減和成本控制措施，確保了23%的穩健利潤率和26億美元的強勁現金流。我們的自由現金流與調整後收益的轉換率高達149%。自由現金流與銷售額的比率為14.3%，較2019年成長90個基點，再次創下歷史新高。

We launched a $280 million multiyear restructuring program to reduce fixed costs. This is really targeted mostly in those businesses that have been impacted by the pandemic. And these actions will yield $200 million of mature year benefits and make certainly Eaton stronger in the long run.

我們啟動了一項為期多年的2.8億美元重組計劃，旨在降低固定成本。該計劃主要針對受疫情影響的業務部門。這些措施將在多年後帶來2億美元的收益，並無疑將使伊頓的長期發展更加穩健。

We will also continue to transform our portfolio, announcing or completing divestitures valued at $4.7 billion. We acquired Power Distribution, Inc., and we also announced our intention to acquire 50% of HuanYu High Tech. In addition, we returned $2.8 billion to shareholders via buyback and dividend payments.

我們將繼續調整投資組合，已宣布或完成價值47億美元的資產剝離。我們收購了Power Distribution, Inc.，並宣布計劃收購環宇高科50%的股份。此外，我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了28億美元。

And lastly, we delivered very strong shareholder returns, results that were 20 basis points above the median of our peer group. And so we're certainly proud of that performance as well. Overall, certainly proud of the team and certainly even more encouraged by our prospects for the future.

最後，我們為股東帶來了非常強勁的回報，業績比同業中位數高出20個基點。因此，我們對此業績感到非常自豪。總而言之，我們為團隊感到驕傲，也對未來的前景充滿信心。

As we continue to transform Eaton into a company of higher growth, higher margins and more consistent earnings, the company certainly feels like in 2020, we took an important step forward, demonstrating that it is, in fact, a different company, and we're well on our way to delivering against that goal.

隨著我們不斷將伊頓轉型為一家成長更快、利潤率更高、盈利更穩定的公司，公司確實感覺在 2020 年我們向前邁出了重要一步，這表明它實際上已經是一家不同的公司，而且我們正在朝著實現這一目標穩步前進。

Moving to Page 14, we list our revenue and margin guidance for 2021. Overall, here, we expect organic growth between 4% and 6% with weakness in Q1 followed by strength thereafter, and obviously, given the comparisons, particular strength in Q2. In both our Electrical segments, we expect organic growth to be 3% to 5%. And just starting with the Americas, we expect to see continued strength in residential, data center and utility markets, solid growth in industrial control markets and ongoing weakness in commercial construction markets.

翻到第14頁，我們列出了2021年的營收和利潤率預期。整體而言，我們預期有機成長率介於4%至6%之間，第一季可能略顯疲軟，隨後逐步回升，尤其考慮到去年同期的業績表現，第二季將特別強勁。在電氣業務的兩個板塊，我們預期有機成長率為3%至5%。首先來看美洲地區，我們預期住宅、資料中心和公用事業市場將持續強勁成長，工業控制市場將保持穩健成長，而商業建築市場將持續疲軟。

In Electrical Global, we anticipate strength in residential, data centers, utility and industrial control markets, so very much like in the Americas, offset by softness in commercial construction and in the oil and gas market. And for Hydraulics, we expect organic growth to be between 4% and 6% with broadly improving markets around the world. And in Aerospace, we expect organic growth of 2% to 4% with strength in military, offset by continued weakness in commercial markets. And for Vehicle, we anticipate strong organic growth, some 10% to 12%, with strength in both light vehicle markets and truck markets. And just as a reminder here, our Eaton Cummins joint venture will actually consolidate the revenues associated with this particular joint venture. And so much of this growth will show up in the joint venture, not in Eaton's revenue. And in eMobility, organic growth is expected to be up 14% to 16% driven by strength in electric vehicles globally.

在全球電氣領域，我們預計住宅、資料中心、公用事業和工業控制市場將保持強勁成長，與美洲市場的情況非常相似，但商業建築和油氣市場的疲軟將抵消部分成長。液壓領域，我們預期有機成長率將在4%至6%之間，全球市場整體呈現改善態勢。在航空航太領域，我們預期有機成長率將在2%至4%之間，軍工市場表現強勁，但商業市場的持續疲軟將抵銷部分成長。車輛領域，我們預期有機成長率將達到10%至12%，輕型車輛和卡車市場均表現強勁。需要特別指出的是，我們與伊頓康明斯的合資企業將合併與該合資企業相關的收入。因此，大部分成長將體現在該合資企業的收入中，而不是伊頓的收入中。在電動出行領域，受全球電動車市場強勁成長的推動，預計有機成長率將達到14%至16%。

Turning to segment margins. We expect Eaton to be between 17.8% and 18%. At the midpoint, it's 140 basis points improvement over 2020, and importantly, 20 basis points over the pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

接下來看各業務部門的利潤率。我們預計伊頓的利潤率將在17.8%至18%之間。取中間值，比2020年提高了140個基點，更重要的是，比2019年疫情前的水準提高了20個基點。

If we could turn to Page 15. And really, before we discuss the rest of our 2020 guidance, we'd like to show you the math behind our new definition of adjusted EPS. In 2020, we're revising our definition of adjusted EPS to add back amortization of intangibles. We believe this will provide investors with a more accurate measure of performance. And it will also, quite frankly, make it easier for you to compare our performance with our peers. The table shows adjusted EPS using our current and new definitions for both 2020 and for our guidance range for 2021.

讓我們翻到第15頁。在討論2020年業績指引的其他部分之前，我們想先向您展示一下我們新定義的調整後每股盈餘（EPS）背後的計算方法。 2020年，我們修訂了調整後每股盈餘的定義，將無形資產攤提加回。我們相信這將為投資者提供更準確的業績衡量標準。坦白說，這也將使您更容易將我們的業績與同行進行比較。下表列出了使用我們目前和新定義計算的2020年調整後每股收益以及2021年業績指引範圍內的調整後每股收益。

It's important to note here as well that the applicable tax rate for intangibles is 23.5%, and this is really based upon the tax jurisdictions where the intangibles are located. For 2021, we expect full year adjusted EPS to be between $5.40 and $5.80. And this includes $0.7 from the after-tax impact of intangibles, $0.25 of accretion from the addition of Tripp Lite and Cobham, but this $0.25 is reduced by $0.15 due to lower-than-planned share repurchases and additional financing costs. So on a net basis, the 2 acquisitions will add $0.10 to our expectations for earnings for 2021. We're assuming that Tripp Lite closes once again at the start of Q3 and Cobham closes at the start of Q4.

值得注意的是，無形資產的適用稅率為23.5%，具體稅率取決於無形資產所在地的稅務管轄區。我們預計2021年全年調整後每股盈餘將在5.40美元至5.80美元之間。這其中包括無形資產稅後影響的0.7美元，以及收購Tripp Lite和Cobham帶來的0.25美元加值。但由於股票回購規模低於預期以及額外的融資成本，這0.25美元增值將減少0.15美元。因此，淨而言，這兩項收購將使我們對2021年獲利的預期增加0.10美元。我們假設Tripp Lite的收購將在第三季初完成，Cobham的收購將在第四季初完成。

Turning to Page 16, we cover the balance of our 2021 guidance. Organic growth, as we talked about, 4% to 6%, with divestitures subtracting 8% and positive currency adding $200 million. Adjusted operating cash flow is expected to be between $2.3 billion and $2.7 billion, and CapEx will be approximately $500 million. On an adjusted free cash flow, this is projected to be $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion with a midpoint of $2 billion. The way I would say to think about this is 2021 for us is really a bit of a transition year with several unusual items impacting cash flow, including approximately $200 million due to the sale of the Hydraulics business.

翻到第16頁，我們將繼續介紹2021年的業績指引。正如我們之前提到的，內生成長預計為4%至6%，但剝離業務將減少8%，而匯率變動帶來的正收益將增加2億美元。調整後的營運現金流量預計在23億美元至27億美元之間，資本支出約5億美元。調整後的自由現金流預計為18億美元至22億美元，中間值為20億美元。我認為，2021年對我們來說是一個過渡年，一些特殊項目會影響現金流，其中包括出售液壓業務帶來的約2億美元收入。

We have an incremental $125 million related to our multiyear restructuring plan, approximately $125 million due to the repayment of the CARES Act payroll deferral from 2020, and as I noted, $110 million increase in capital spending, which we really see as a return to more historical levels and the levels we were at prior to the COVID-19-driven reductions.

我們新增了 1.25 億美元，用於我們的多年重組計劃；其中約 1.25 億美元用於償還 2020 年《新冠病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》(CARES Act) 的工資延期支付；正如我所提到的，資本支出增加了 1.1 億美元，我們認為這真正恢復到了歷史水平，恢復到了歷史水平，恢復到了歷史的疫情水平。

I'd also note that the increase in capital spend is going to support strategic growth, and we're really pleased to put dollars to work here. For example, in Q4, we announced $100 million investment to expand our North America electrical manufacturing and distribution centers. Excluding these items, as I think about this as a transition year, the midpoint of our guidance would really be approximately $2.6 billion.

我還想指出，資本支出的增加將支持策略成長，我們非常高興能將資金投入這方面。例如，在第四季度，我們宣布投資1億美元用於擴大我們在北美的電氣製造和分銷中心。如果排除這些項目，考慮到今年是轉型年，我們預期目標的中位數實際上約為26億美元。

And lastly, our Q1 guidance is as follows: We expect earnings to be between $1.17 and $1.27, for revenues to be down 3% to 4%, for segment margins to come in between 15.7% and 16.1%. And consistent with the full year, we expect our tax rate to be between 15.5% and 16.5%.

最後，我們對第一季的業績預期如下：預計每股收益在1.17美元至1.27美元之間，營收下降3%至4%，各業務部門利潤率在15.7%至16.1%之間。與全年一致，我們預計稅率在15.5%至16.5%之間。

And finally, I'd like to conclude on Page 17 with a summary we'd say -- why we think Eaton remains a very attractive long-term investment. First, we're an intelligent power management company. And this means that we're well positioned to take advantage of perhaps what we think is the most important secular growth trend that we will experience in our lifetime; an energy transition driven by climate change, increasing electrification really of everything, and explosive growth in connectivity.

最後，我想在第17頁總結我們認為伊頓仍然是一項極具吸引力的長期投資的原因。首先，我們是一家智慧電源管理公司。這意味著我們擁有得天獨厚的優勢，能夠充分利用我們認為在我們有生之年將會經歷的最重要的長期增長趨勢：由氣候變遷驅動的能源轉型、各行各業電氣化程度的不斷提高以及互聯互通的爆炸式增長。

And it's also helpful, and I'll remind you that we've been at it for some time in terms of being a leader in ESG practices, which is now becoming increasingly important around the world. In fact, I'd say that Eaton's commitment to sustainability is deeply embedded in the belief that what's good for the planet is also good for Eaton, and that environmentally friendly solutions will create growth opportunities for our company.

而且，這也有助於我們更好地進行工作。我還要提醒各位，我們在ESG（環境、社會和治理）實踐方面一直致力於成為行業領導者，而這在當今世界正變得越來越重要。事實上，我認為伊頓對永續發展的承諾深深植根於這樣的信念：對地球有益的，對伊頓也有益；環保解決方案將為公司創造成長機會。

As you know, our commitment to improve our business portfolio with a focus on high growth, higher earnings and more earnings consistency is ongoing. That's exactly what we've been doing over the last number of years and what we'll continue to do.

如您所知，我們一直致力於優化業務組合，並專注於高成長、更高獲利和更穩定的獲利能力。這正是我們過去幾年一直在做的事情，也是我們將繼續做的事情。

Today, some 85% of our segment profits come from Electrical and Aerospace and with -- and that percentage will actually continue to grow with these announced acquisitions. And while not complete, I think it's clear to say that our strategy is working. Our operating margin guidance for 2021 at 17.8% at the midpoint is an all-time record and 20 basis points above 2019.

目前，我們約85%的業務利潤來自電氣和航空航太領域，隨著已宣布的收購，這一比例將持續成長。雖然收購尚未完成，但我認為可以肯定地說，我們的策略正在奏效。我們預計2021年的營業利益率中位數為17.8%，創歷史新高，比2019年高出20個基點。

In addition, our cash flow continues to be a real point of differentiation. As we demonstrated in 2020, it's not only strong, but it's resilient under all economic conditions. You can expect this point of differentiation to continue. Lastly, we expect to deliver 8% to 10% EPS growth over the 5-year planning horizon, including 14% in 2021.

此外，我們的現金流仍然是一項真正的差異化優勢。正如我們在2020年所展現的那樣，我們的現金流不僅強勁，而且在各種經濟環境下都具有韌性。您可以預期這一差異化優勢將持續保持。最後，我們預計在未來五年規劃期內將達到8%至10%的每股盈餘成長，其中2021年將達到14%。

And so with that, I'll turn it back to Yan for Q&A.

那麼，接下來我將把問答環節交給顏先生。

Thanks, Craig. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝，克雷格。 （操作說明）

Thanks in advance for your cooperation. With that, I will turn it over to the operator to give you guys the instruction.

感謝各位的合作。接下來，我會把麥克風交給操作員，請他給你們下達指示。

(Operator Instructions) First, we'll go to the line of Nicole DeBlase of Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）首先，我們將連線德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

Rick, best of luck in retirement. It was great working with you.

里克，祝你退休生活一切順利。和你一起工作非常愉快。

Great. Thanks, Nicole.

太好了，謝謝你，妮可。

So maybe starting with some of the order trends that you saw within Electrical. I'm not sure that the trailing 12-month trend really tells the story here, especially since we are seeing improvement into next year in your organic growth guidance.

所以，或許我們可以先從電氣產業的訂單趨勢開始。我不確定過去12個月的趨勢是否真的能反映出全部情況，尤其是在你們的自然成長預期中，明年的表現有所改善。

So Craig, maybe you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing in realtime in the end markets. And what's starting to show -- or what's continuing to show sequential improvement in the fourth quarter and into early 1Q?

克雷格，或許你可以談談你在終端市場即時觀察到的情況。哪些方面開始顯現——或者說，哪些方面在第四季度以及第一季初持續呈現環比改善的趨勢？

Yes. Nicole, appreciate the question. And that's obviously the big one that we're all spending a lot of time focusing on. And I'd say that if you think about our Electrical Americas business in the fourth quarter, it continued to be impacted, quite frankly, by the spread of COVID-19 and some intermittent shutdowns and supply chain issues that we experienced, principally here in the U.S. market. And so I would suggest that if you think about those areas that have been strong and continue to be strong and the things that are really driving the increase in the backlog, residential markets continue to be doing this extraordinarily strong to the point where I'd say we're still needing to run after that market. We're still trying to fulfill this increasing backlog in that business. And so residential, we think, continues to be extremely strong.

是的，妮可，感謝你的提問。這顯然是我們所有人都在密切關注的重點。坦白說，如果我們回顧第四季度我們在美洲的電氣業務，就會發現它持續受到新冠疫情蔓延以及我們經歷的一些間歇性停工和供應鏈問題的影響，尤其是在美國市場。因此，我認為，在那些表現強勁且持續強勁的領域，以及真正推動積壓訂單成長的因素中，住宅市場依然表現異常強勁，以至於我們仍然需要積極爭取這個市場。我們仍在努力滿足該業務不斷增長的積壓訂單。所以，我們認為住宅市場依然非常強勁。

You heard me talk about what's going on today in the data center market and some of the double-digit growth in the Americas, up 30% in Global. And so data center market is driven by this insatiable appetite that we all have for data. It continues to grow very strongly. Utility markets continue to do well.

你們剛才聽到我談到了資料中心市場的最新動態，以及美洲地區兩位數的成長，全球成長更是高達30%。資料中心市場的成長動力源自於我們所有人對資料永無止境的需求。它正持續強勁增長。公用事業市場也繼續保持良好勢頭。

There's been a lot written about what's happening today in commercial construction, and that's the market that everybody's watching and we are as well. We think it's important to note even there that if you think about for Eaton, specifically, commercial construction is under 20% of our total Electrical business in the Americas. Of that, some 1/3 of it goes into retrofit and upgrades, which tend to be more predictable.

關於當今商業建築領域的發展趨勢，已經有許多文章進行了通報，這也是大家都在關注的市場，我們也不例外。我們認為，即使就伊頓而言，商業建築業務僅占我們在美洲電氣業務總量的不到20%。而在這20%的業務中，約有三分之一是改造和升級項目，這類項目往往更具可預測性。

And then there are markets like warehousing, for example, that's in commercial construction, which has a much higher electrical intensity than, let's say, retail, that's doing quite well. And so I'd say that, by and large, we're comfortable with the guidance that we provided for our Electrical businesses in the Americas and globally. 3% to 5%, very much consistent with the trends that we saw during the course of Q4, assuming we don't have the supply chain-related disruptions that we experienced. And we're certainly encouraged by the fact that we built backlog. And as you know, the backlog for us typically ships in 12 months or less. So that gives us also lots of confidence in our ability to deliver those revenue numbers.

例如，倉儲等市場，也就是商業建築領域，其用電量遠高於零售業等其他產業，零售業目前表現相當不錯。因此，總的來說，我們對先前為美洲和全球電氣業務提供的業績指引感到滿意。 3%至5%的成長與我們在第四季觀察到的趨勢非常一致，前提是我們不會再遇到先前經歷的供應鏈中斷問題。我們積壓的訂單也讓我們倍感鼓舞。如您所知，我們的積壓訂單通常會在12個月或更短時間內交付。因此，這也讓我們對實現這些營收目標充滿信心。

Got it. That's really helpful color, Craig. And then for my follow-up, can we just talk a little bit about unpacking the outlook for margins? What you guys have embedded for underlying decrementals relative to other puts and takes, like temporary costs coming back, some of the restructuring payback that you'll start to see this year, maybe some M&A impact? If you could provide some color there.

明白了。克雷格，你提供的資訊很有幫助。接下來，我們能否稍微探討一下利潤率的前景？你們是如何考慮其他潛在不利因素的，例如臨時成本的回升、今年開始出現的一些重組收益，以及併購的影響？能否詳細解釋一下？

Yes. And I think the margins that we guided to, 7.8% at the midpoint, an all-time record, is certainly very much indicative of the fact that the incremental margins in 2021 are going to be quite attractive.

是的。我認為我們預測的利潤率中位數為7.8%，創歷史新高，這無疑充分顯示2021年的增量利潤率將相當可觀。

Certainly, we're going to start to see some benefits associated with the $280 million restructuring program that we put in place, $200 million in mature year. But we start to see some of those benefits clearly in '21.

當然，我們將會開始看到我們實施的2.8億美元重組計畫帶來的一些好處，其中2億美元將在成熟年度發放。但我們將在2021年開始明顯看到這些好處。

The other thing with respect to -- we did, like other companies, take a number of temporary cost-containment measures during the course of 2020. And I'd say for the most part, we're expecting most of our costs to come back in 2021. The one place that we'll continue to see some benefits with respect to cost-containment measures -- certainly, we're not spending nearly as much traveling, hotels. And so our travel and entertainment expenses will certainly continue to run at levels that are well below historical levels.

關於成本控制，我們和其他公司一樣，在2020年採取了一些臨時性的成本控制措施。我認為，我們預計大部分成本將在2021年恢復正常。成本控制措施帶來的一個好處是，我們在差旅和旅館方面的支出大幅減少。因此，我們的差旅和招待費用肯定會繼續保持在遠低於歷史水平的水平。

But the other things that we've done during the course of 2020 to contain costs, we're assuming that all those costs come back into the business during 2021. And so for the most part, I'd say the plan is very well conceived and thought through. And the margins that we've articulated for our businesses are very much consistent with where our businesses are currently running and simply adding to that, these increments and decrements for cost-containment measures plus restructuring benefits. And so we're comfortable with the number.

但我們在2020年為控製成本而採取的其他措施，我們假設所有這些成本都將在2021年重新計入業務。因此，總的來說，我認為該計劃構思周全、考慮充分。我們為各項業務設定的利潤率與業務目前的營運狀況非常吻合，再加上成本控制措施和重組帶來的收益，利潤率的增減幅度基本上符合預期。因此，我們對最終的數字感到滿意。

Next, we'll go to the line of Andrew Obin of Bank of America.

接下來，我們將連線美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

First, I want to extend my congratulations and thanks to Rick. You probably don't remember it, but you and Sandy were my first meeting as a senior analyst in London years and years ago. So thank you for all the help.

首先，我要向里克表示祝賀和感謝。你可能不記得了，但多年前我在倫敦擔任高級分析師時，你和桑迪是我遇到的第一批人。所以，非常感謝你們的幫忙。

You're welcome. I do remember that, Andrew. And you've been a loyal commentator over all these years, so thank you.

不客氣。我記得這件事，安德魯。這麼多年來你一直是忠實的評論員，謝謝你。

But just a question -- just a broader question. A lot of change in Eaton. If you look, there's new appointments. Katrina Redmond, Raj as the CTO. You have new Head of Energy Transition. Can you just sort of talk about what should we think about this change? And what does it signal about the direction of the company over the next couple of years? That's my first question.

但我想問一個問題——一個更廣泛的問題。伊頓公司最近有很多變動。你看，有很多新的任命。卡特里娜·雷德蒙德，拉傑擔任首席技術長。還有新的能源轉型負責人。您能否談談我們應該如何看待這些變化？這預示著公司未來幾年的發展方向為何？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. I'd say -- I appreciate you commenting on the changes because we have -- like every company, you go through a period of refreshment. And sometimes, these are additions, as you think about moving the strategic direction of the company in a particular direction or 2. And sometimes, people simply time out, like Rick has.

是的。我想說──我很感謝你對這些變化提出意見，因為和所有公司一樣，我們也會經歷一段調整期。有時，這些調整是為了推動公司策略方向朝著某個或兩個特定方向發展而進行的。有時，人們只是需要一些時間來適應新的環境，就像瑞克一樣。

And but certainly, if you think about some of the additions that we've made like to add Aravind Yarlagadda to our team and he reports to me, and he's our Chief Digital Officer. And that's really a reflection of the fact that I talk about these 3 big trends that are taking place and, as I mentioned, perhaps the 3 biggest trends that we'll see in our lifetimes around energy transition, connectivity, climate change and the like. So this is really positioning the organization to capitalize on these trends that we're seeing inside of our markets. And so I think these are changes that we're absolutely thrilled with.

當然，想想我們最近的一些人員調整，例如Aravind Yarlagadda加入我們的團隊，他直接向我匯報，擔任首席數位長。這確實反映了我之前提到的三大趨勢，也是我們一生中可能會看到的三大趨勢：能源轉型、互聯互通、氣候變遷等等。這些調整旨在幫助公司更好地掌握市場中的這些趨勢。因此，我對這些變化感到非常興奮。

And we think we're bringing in people or having people step up to take on responsibilities that are -- ensure that Eaton takes our fair share of these growth opportunities that we're looking at into the future. And so I just think it's -- these changes, I would hope that you'd see that they are very much strategically aligned with where the company has said that we want to go. And these are things that are certainly going to help us capitalize on those opportunities.

我們認為，引進人才或讓現有員工承擔起相應的責任，並能確保伊頓在未來的發展機會中佔據應有的份額。因此，我希望大家能夠看到，這些變革與公司既定的發展方向高度契合，並且必將幫助我們充分掌握這些機會。

And just a follow-up question. We're getting a lot of questions on your eMobility business. And I know we're definitely still in the investment stage and will be for a while. But could you just comment in terms of who should we think as your customers? Because clearly, a lot of activity in sort of electric vehicle space. Can you just talk, are you targeting North American players, players in Asia, Europe? As this thing emerges 2, 3 years from now as a bigger business, who should we see as the key customer base there?

還有一個後續問題。我們收到了很多關於貴公司電動旅遊業務的問題。我知道我們目前仍處於投資階段，而且這種情況還會持續一段時間。但您能否談談貴公司的目標客戶群？因為很明顯，電動車領域非常活躍。您能否具體說明一下，貴公司的目標客戶是北美、亞洲還是歐洲的消費者？隨著這項業務在未來兩三年內發展壯大，我們認為貴公司的主要客戶群應該是誰？

Yes. And I appreciate the question on eMobility. And obviously, it's a very hot space and a lot going on there. And I'd say for us, it's not so much a focus on a geographic solution as much as it is really a technology-driven solution. So we're really focusing on those areas around power electronics, power conversion, inverters, converters, power distribution, onboard charging. So for us, we're endeavoring to be a global player, serving both the light vehicle market, I'd say, and importantly, by the way, the commercial vehicle market, where we have a very strong footprint today with commercial vehicle customers. And so I would think about it really more we are endeavoring to play around the world and to be balanced, quite frankly, around the world. But it's really focusing on very particular technologies and products where we think we can offer a unique solution and deliver acceptable returns to the company.

是的。感謝您提出關於電動出行的問題。顯然，這是一個非常熱門且發展迅速的領域。對我們而言，重點不在於地域性解決方案，而在於技術驅動的解決方案。因此，我們專注於電力電子、功率轉換、逆變器、轉換器、配電和車載充電等領域。我們致力於成為一家全球性企業，服務輕型汽車市場，以及商用車市場——順便一提，我們在商用車客戶中擁有非常強大的影響力。因此，我認為我們更希望在全球範圍內開展業務，並保持全球平衡。但我們真正關注的是那些我們認為能夠提供獨特解決方案並為公司帶來可觀回報的特定技術和產品。

I guess the question is, we know about your very strong position with existing players, with traditional OEMs, just going back to your internal combustion engine days. But should we see it also taking a fair share with the emerging players as well?

我想問的是，我們知道貴公司在現有廠商，也就是傳統汽車製造商中，擁有非常強大的市場地位，這可以追溯到貴公司涉足內燃機領域的時期。但是，我們是否也應該看到貴公司在新興廠商中佔據相當的市場份額呢？

Yes. I'd say, even today, if you think about the emerging players, I mean, today, we -- Tesla is a great example. Tesla is a customer today. And so I would say that absolutely, whether it's an existing player as they work their way through this transition to electrification, or it's some of the emerging players in the U.S. and around the world, I mean, you could think about us pursuing opportunities with all of them.

是的。我想說，即使在今天，如果你看看那些新興企業，像是特斯拉，就是一個很好的例子。特斯拉現在就是我們的客戶。所以我想說，無論是正在努力轉型電氣化的現有企業，還是美國乃至全球的新興企業，我們都可以考慮與他們合作，尋求各種機會。

Next, we have the line of Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

接下來是 Nigel Coe 的 Wolfe Research 系列。

So Rick, [8 -- or $0.08 TSO] is not bad. So congratulations on a great career, and we will miss you.

所以里克，[8——或0.08美元TSO]還不錯。恭喜你擁有如此輝煌的職業生涯，我們會想念你的。

Great. Thank you, Nigel.

太好了。謝謝你，奈傑爾。

So I just want to clarify on the guidance framework. Hydraulics, is that in for 1 quarter? I'm sorry if I missed that in the prepared remarks. Is that in for 1 quarter? And is Hydraulics in your 1Q guide for organic and margins?

所以我想澄清一下業績指引框架。液壓業務的業績指引會涵蓋第一季嗎？如果我在準備的發言稿中遺漏了這一點，我深表歉意。液壓業務的業績指引會涵蓋第一季嗎？液壓業務的業績指引是否包含在第一季的有機成長和利潤率指引中？

Yes, it is. It is in for 1 quarter, and it is included in the guidance for Q1. That's correct.

是的。它只持續一個季度，並且已包含在第一季的業績指引中。沒錯。

And the market growth rate that we gave for Hydraulics, that's the growth rate in Q1.

我們給出的液壓市場成長率，是第一季的成長率。

Q1. Exactly right. And then move on to Electrical Americas. And I fully absorbed the comments about COVID and supply chain. But it did come in slightly below your plan for those reasons, I guess. But just a little bit of context in terms of what happens during the quarter in the Americas. And did we see channel destocking? And the sequential kind of Q to Q on the margin in that segment was a bit heavier than what we'd expected. So a little bit of context there would be helpful.

Q1. 完全正確。接下來談談美洲電氣業務。我完全理解關於新冠疫​​情和供應鏈的評論。但我想，正是由於這些原因，實際業績略低於您的預期。不過，能否提供一些關於美洲地區本季業績的背景資訊？我們是否觀察到渠道去庫存？該業務板塊的環比利潤率略高於預期。因此，提供一些相關背景資訊會很有幫助。

Yes. No, I'd say specifically, as the quarter unfolded, I would say that we, in the U.S., certainly experienced second waves and an additional kind of supply chain-related constraints in the Americas that certainly impacted the business. And I'd say on a relative basis, the month of December and the end of the quarter was better than the beginning of the quarter as some of the supply chain constraints began to be sorted somewhat. As you probably read and hear, there's lots of issues in the various ports, LA, Long Beach. And so it really has been a supply chain issue. It's been, in some cases, an issue around keeping our sites fully staffed on the manufacturing floor as absentee rates, whether it's for Eaton or some of the suppliers, had been a little bit of a challenge during the early part of the quarter.

是的。不，更準確地說，隨著本季的展開，我們在美國確實經歷了第二波疫情，美洲地區也出現了其他一些供應鏈相關的限制，這些都對業務造成了影響。相對而言，12 月和本季末的情況比季度初更好，因為一些供應鏈限制開始得到一定程度的緩解。正如您可能已經了解到的，洛杉磯和長灘等各個港口都存在著許多問題。因此，這確實是一個供應鏈問題。在某些情況下，由於伊頓公司或一些供應商的員工缺勤率較高，導致我們生產車間人員配備不足，這在本季初確實是一個挑戰。

And so I'd say, no, the Americas business specifically, it's performing very much in line with what we would have anticipated. But for these disruptions, I'd say, in supply chain. And specifically to your question around destocking, I'd say no. I mean, we didn't really -- at this juncture, we think inventory levels in the channel, with the exception, as I noted, in residential, we think the channel is largely where it should be given the outlook for revenue.

所以，就美洲業務而言，我認為它的表現基本上符合我們的預期。但就供應鏈而言，這些中斷確實造成了一定的影響。至於您提到的去庫存問題，我的答案是否定的。我的意思是，目前我們並沒有真正進行去庫存，除了我剛才提到的住宅市場之外，我們認為通路的庫存水準基本上符合預期，這與收入前景相符。

And so I think we, quite frankly, still have some channel stocking to do in the residential side of the business. But other than that, it's pretty well aligned.

所以坦白說，我認為我們在住宅業務方面還有一些通路庫存需要補充。但除此之外，一切都進展得相當順利。

Next, we'll go to the line of Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.

接下來，我們將連線 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

Congrats, Rick. I don't think this is your last earnings call, though. I think you'll dial in next quarter with us. You'll make it 76. You're not going to let go of that easily.

恭喜你，里克。不過，我覺得這不會是你最後一次參加財報電話會議。我想你下個季度還會跟我們一起參加。你會參加76次的。你一定不會輕易放棄這個機會的。

Yes. You can bet on that, Jeff.

沒錯，傑夫，這點毋庸置疑。

I just wanted to dig into Cobham a little, if we could. Tripp Lite looks like a total slam dunk from my vantage point. There's some questions around Cobham that I'm hoping you could maybe address.

我想稍微了解一下 Cobham，如果可以的話。在我看來，Tripp Lite 簡直完美。關於 Cobham，我有一些問題，希望您能解答一下。

The PE firm disclosed EBITA, I think it was, of GBP 95 million in 2019. So that's about $124 million. I think your acquisition multiple implies it's running 2 10-ish. And I'm getting a fair amount of questions. Is there just some kind of accounting change there relative to Boeing program accounting? And if there's any particular disconnect actually in the EBIT in that business relative to how the cash flows might be running in the business.

我記得私募股權公司揭露的2019年息稅前利潤（EBITA）是9,500萬英鎊，約合1.24億美元。我認為你給出的收購倍數意味著它的營運成本在2倍左右。我收到了很多問題。這是否與波音公司的專案會計處理方式有所不同？該業務的息稅前利潤（EBIT）與其現金流量之間是否存在任何脫節？

Jeff, I'll address that. If you looked at that unit, that unit had a lot of intercompany relationships with other parts of Cobham. And so you have to actually unpack that information and restate it to get to the stand-alone Cobham Mission Systems' EBITDA. And so that's what we're referring to, the appropriate stand-alone Cobham Mission Systems' EBITDA.

傑夫，我會解釋的。如果你仔細查看那個部門，你會發現它與科巴姆集團的其他部門有許多關聯關係。所以你必須把這些資訊拆解開來，重新整理，才能得出科巴姆任務系統獨立運作時的EBITDA。這就是我們所指的，科巴姆任務系統獨立運作時的EBITDA。

So there's not any extraordinary growth in between 2019 and 2021 on accounting changes or anything?

所以2019年至2021年間，由於會計準則的變化或其他原因，並沒有出現任何異常增長？

No.

不。

No. And how about the cash flow equation there?

不。那那裡的現金流方程式又該如何計算呢？

Well, it's -- we're not expecting to own it for much of '21. As we said, the start of Q4 is what we're building in at the close. And so there'll be just a modest amount of cash flow. But next year, we would expect you would have a full year's worth of quite good cash flow. EBITDA margins as a percentage of sales are quite good in that business.

嗯，我們預計2021年大部分時間都不會持有這塊地。正如我們所說，我們計劃在第四季初完成交易。因此，屆時現金流量只會比較適中。但明年，我們預計您將擁有全年相當​​不錯的現金流。該業務的EBITDA利潤率（佔銷售額的百分比）相當可觀。

If I can just add, Jeff, I would just tell you that we are every bit as excited about Cobham Mission Systems as we are Tripp Lite. We think they're both highly strategic acquisitions. We think both of them do wonders for our business. And specific to Cobham Mission Systems, I think it's very -- it's all about what platforms are you on in the Aerospace business. And if you're on the right platform at the right time, these businesses go on for a very long period of time. The typical military platform could run 40, 50 years. And we're at the very front end of what's going to be a very long expansion cycle on the military side, and Cobham has been very successful on some of the most important military platforms that are going to run for a very long period of time. So we think it really adds a large level of continuity and consistency and predictability to the company and to our Aerospace business for some time to come.

傑夫，如果我可以補充一點，我想說我們對科巴姆任務系統公司（Cobham Mission Systems）的收購和對特里普萊特公司（Tripp Lite）的收購一樣充滿信心。我們認為這兩項收購都極具戰略意義，都將對我們的業務產生巨大的正面影響。具體到科巴姆任務系統公司，我認為關鍵在於──在航空航太領域，一切都取決於你所使用的平台。如果你在正確的時間選擇了正確的平台，這些業務就能持續很久。典型的軍用平台可以運作40到50年。我們正處於軍用領域漫長擴張週期的初期，而科巴姆在一些最重要的、將長期運作的軍用平台上取得了巨大的成功。因此，我們認為這確實能在未來很長一段時間內為公司和我們的航空航太業務帶來極大的連續性、穩定性和可預測性。

And Jeff, just to put some meat on what I said, the EBITDA margins are between 20% and 25%. So that's a very attractive business.

傑夫，為了更詳細地說明我的意思，EBITDA利潤率在20%到25%之間。所以這是一家非常有吸引力的公司。

Yes. Can you also just comment on how you utilize that tax benefit that's part of the deal?

是的。您能否也談談您是如何利用這項交易中包含的稅收優惠的？

That's simply a 338(h)(10) election. So all that means is that, that will give us a tax deduction for the asset value. And typically, in a situation like this, you end up paying the seller for that because we're the ones that are going to be able to deduct that value.

這其實就是338(h)(10)條款的選擇。也就是說，我們可以就這筆資產價值獲得稅收抵免。通常情況下，在這種情況下，你需要向賣方支付這筆費用，因為只有我們才能抵扣這部分價值。

I see. Good luck with the deals. Much appreciated.

我明白了。祝你交易順利。非常感謝。

Next, we have the line of Scott Davis of Melius Research.

接下來，我們來看看 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis 的介紹。

Congrats, Rick.

恭喜你，里克。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hate to ask kind of [Mnuchin] here, but what is the full amortization effect once these 2 big deals close?

很不好意思問姆努欽這樣的人，但這兩筆大交易完成後，全部攤還效應會是什麼樣的呢？

Well, here's the way to think about it, Scott. The gross accretion -- are you talking about amortization or accretion?

史考特，你可以這樣想。總加值－你指的是攤銷還是加值？

Just the amortization, not the accretion.

僅指攤銷，不包括增值。

Oh, okay. You're going to have -- you got $0.70 from -- that's the current Eaton amortization. And then I'll give you -- just 1 second, I'll give you the...

哦，好的。你會得到——你從——那是伊頓目前的攤銷款，金額是0.70美元。然後我會給你——等一下，我會給你…

While Rick's looking that up, Scott, did you have a second question? We'll let Rick go through the book.

史考特，瑞克在查資料的時候，你還有其他問題嗎？我們先讓瑞克查閱這本書吧。

I do. If we go back to eMobility, and I know the question was asked in kind of a different way, and I'm going to ask it again. I mean, do you expect the growth rate to match up with kind of the penetration of electric vehicles? I mean, because I think -- if memory serves me right, I think the forecasts are something like 50% growth rates in EVs in 2021. But should it be a higher growth rate than the actual SAAR in EVs because you have a higher content per vehicle that's going in or increasing content for -- I'm just kind of struggling to reconcile your conservative forecast with the actual growth that people are expecting.

是的。如果我們回到電動出行這個話題，我知道這個問題之前有人用不同的方式問過，但我還是要再問一次。我的意思是，您認為成長率會和電動車的普及率相符嗎？因為我記得，2021年電動車的預測成長率大約是50%。但是，考慮到每輛車的電動車含量更高，或者說電動車的電動車含量正在增加，那麼這個成長率是否應該高於電動車的實際年均成長率呢？我只是很難將您保守的預測與人們預期的實際成長調和起來。

Yes. And I think so much of it, Scott, is going to be a function on which platform are you on and when does the platform that you're on get launched into the marketplace. And so a lot of the growth today in EVs and what's perhaps in some of the forecasts are based upon some existing platforms heavily influenced by companies like Tesla.

是的。斯科特，我認為這很大程度上取決於你使用的平台以及該平台何時上市。因此，目前電動車的許多成長，以及一些預測，都基於一些現有平台，而這些平台深受特斯拉等公司的影響。

But the other thing I would say is if you think about our eMobility business, it's both in electrification of cars, but it's also the legacy business as well. And so it's really all of the electrical content that we have going into vehicles in general, not just the high-voltage electrical solutions that you're seeing specifically on eMobility platforms. And so for us, it's what we have fairly good visibility to.

但我想補充一點，如果我們把目光轉向我們的電動旅遊業務，它不僅包括汽車電氣化，也包括傳統汽車業務。因此，它實際上涵蓋了我們所有應用於車輛的電氣組件，而不僅僅是您在電動出行平台上看到的高壓電氣解決方案。所以，對我們來說，這是我們能夠比較清晰了解的業務領域。

Things could turn out to be slightly different than that, but it's really a function of which platform that you're on.

實際情況可能略有不同，但這實際上取決於你使用的平台。

And Scott, the answer to your question on the intangible amortization for the full year of both of those deals is about $0.15.

史考特，你問的關於這兩筆交易全年無形資產攤銷的問題，答案是大約 0.15 美元。

Okay. Okay. Good.

好的，好的，很好。

Next, we have the line of Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.

接下來是高盛集團的喬·里奇。

I'll pass along my kudos and congratulations to you, well, Rick. Really enjoyed working with you throughout the years.

我會向你轉達我的讚揚和祝賀，里克。這些年來和你一起工作真的非常愉快。

Great. Thanks, Joe.

太好了，謝謝你，喬。

So maybe just starting off on the 2 acquisitions. Can you guys maybe just provide a little bit more history that you have with the company -- with both of those companies? How long have they've been on your radar screen? And then also specifically, anything you could tell us about how those companies performed through the pandemic?

那麼，我們先從這兩項收購說起。你們能否詳細介紹一下與這兩家公司的歷史淵源？你們關注它們多久了？另外，能否具體談談這兩家公司在疫情期間的表現？

Yes. I'd say that for us, Joe, we're always actively courting companies and strategically, if you think about today, the way these 2 companies fit into our broader portfolio, you could imagine that they've been on our list for some time. And we always find that when you create long-term relationships and you're working with companies and the management team early on in the process, it increases your likelihood of success. And as a result, we're absolutely thrilled to be able to add these 2 companies to our portfolio.

是的。喬，我想說，對我們來說，我們一直在積極尋找合適的公司。從策略角度來看，如果你仔細想想這兩家公司在我們整體投資組合中的定位，你就會明白它們其實已經在我們的考慮範圍之內一段時間了。我們始終認為，建立長期的合作關係，並在專案初期就與公司及其管理團隊展開合作，能夠顯著提高成功的幾率。因此，我們非常高興能夠將這兩家公司納入我們的投資組合。

And so suffice it to say that we've been at it with these companies for some time. Obviously, these transactions tend to come together fairly quickly. But a lot of courting had taken place long before these deals were finally signed overall.

因此，可以說我們與這些公司已經接觸了一段時間。顯然，這些交易往往很快就能達成。但實際上，在這些交易最終簽署之前，雙方已經進行了大量的洽談工作。

And then in terms of performance, I mean, both of these businesses performed extremely well through the pandemic, as you saw -- or you'll likely see with Cobham. And because it's a military business, they actually -- despite the fact that we went through this pandemic, their military business, just like our military business, held up very well. I mean, that's one of the good attributes of having military businesses. In general, they tend to be much more consistent, much more predictable than perhaps some of the more commercial endeavors.

就業成績而言，這兩家公司在疫情期間的表現都非常出色，正如你所看到的——或者你很可能會在科巴姆公司身上看到這一點。由於他們是軍工企業，儘管經歷了疫情，他們的軍工業務，就像我們自己的軍工業務一樣，都保持了良好的狀態。我的意思是，這是軍工企業的優勢之一。總的來說，軍工企業的表現往往比一些商業企業更穩定、更可預測。

And the same thing I would say would be true of Tripp Lite. While the revenues regressed a little bit during the course of 2020, it held up much better than most other businesses, largely because of the segment of the market that it's serving in, essentially, enterprise, data solutions, computing at the edge. They're exposed, obviously, to this growth in 5G. And so both of these businesses, I would say, held up better than the underlying markets.

同樣的情況也適用於 Tripp Lite。雖然其營收在 2020 年略有下滑，但與其他大多數企業相比，其表現要好得多，這主要是因為其所服務的市場細分領域——企業數據解決方案和邊緣運算。顯然，他們受益於 5G 的成長。因此，我認為這兩家公司都比其所屬市場表現得更好。

Yes. That's helpful, Craig. I guess maybe just following up on a question from earlier on the cash flow of these 2 businesses. And so fully recognize it's not going to have much of an impact in 2021. But if you take a look at your EBITDA -- implied EBITDA for -- in the out-years on an annual basis, it's about $365 million, $370 million. I guess just in that context, how should we think about whether it's in absolute dollar amount, free cash flow margins or free cash flow conversion for the 2 businesses that are coming in?

是的，這很有幫助，克雷格。我想就之前關於這兩家公司現金流的問題再補充一下。我完全明白，它們在2021年不會產生太大影響。但是，如果你看一下未來幾年的EBITDA（隱含EBITDA），以年計算，大約是3.65億美元到3.7億美元。我想在這個背景下，我們應該如何看待這兩家新公司，無論是以絕對金額、自由現金流利潤率還是自由現金流轉換率來衡量？

I mean, I believe from a cash conversion basis, you'll see that it will be very high for these 2 businesses because they will have a fair amount of intangible amortization. And obviously, that's noncash amortization. And their underlying EBITDA margins are quite strong, and so they should actually be additive to our overall free cash flow margins.

我的意思是，我認為從現金轉換的角度來看，這兩家企業的現金轉換率會非常高，因為它們會有相當多的無形資產攤銷。顯然，這是非現金攤銷。而且它們的基礎EBITDA利潤率相當強勁，因此它們實際上應該會提升我們整體的自由現金流利潤率。

Next, we go to the line of Ann Duignan, JPMorgan.

接下來，我們來看看摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

And Rick, I think I see you more likely playing golf in Ireland than sitting on a beach, but however. Hopefully, both. But...

瑞克，我覺得你更有可能在愛爾蘭打高爾夫，而不是躺在沙灘上，不過，希望兩者兼得。但是…

You know him well.

你很了解他。

Anyway, I guess, Rick, my question of you is on the Tripp Lite acquisition, single phase. For a long time, you had said that single phase was not a very attractive end market. It was lower-margin, more commodity-type business. What's changed or what's different about Tripp Lite that makes you think that this is different this time?

總之，瑞克，我想問的是關於你收購 Tripp Lite 單相電源的問題。你之前一直說單相電源的終端市場吸引力不大，利潤率低，更像是商品業務。 Tripp Lite 有什麼變化或不同之處，讓你覺得這次的情況有所不同？

Well, actually, I don't know where you got the impression that single phase is lower margin. In fact, it's never been lower margin. It actually has margins that are every bit as good as 3-phase.

其實，我不知道你是從哪裡得出單相電源利潤率低的印象的。事實上，單相電源的利潤率從來都不低。它的利潤率實際上和三相電源一樣好。

And the market -- actually, if you look at the entire power quality market, the market splits out historically about half 3-phase and half single-phase. And we, of course, are already a significant participant in a single phase market, not as much in the U.S. as we are in EMEA and APAC. And so this simply gives us a complete global footprint for the single-phase business.

實際上，縱觀整個電能品質市場，歷史上三相和單相市場各佔一半左右。我們當然已經是單相市場的重要參與者，雖然在美國的份額不如在歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區那麼大。因此，此次收購使我們的單相業務在全球範圍內擁有了完整的佈局。

And we -- the single-phase business is one that we built up over really the last 10 years through several acquisitions, starting with MGE, which we did in '07; and Phoenixtec, which we did in '08. And so we've been -- we're a very knowledgeable acquirer in this space. And so this was an opportunity to add a fill-in for us, a company that gave us the Americas exposure that we hadn't gotten through those other acquisitions. And it's a very high-margin space. It has been ever since we participated in it.

我們－單相業務是我們過去十年透過多次收購逐步建立起來的，最早可以追溯到2007年收購MGE，以及2008年收購Phoenixtec。因此，我們在這個領域一直是一位經驗豐富的收購者。這次收購對我們來說是一個機會，可以填補我們先前的收購空白，讓我們有機會拓展美洲市場。而且，這是一個利潤率非常高的領域，自從我們涉足以來一直如此。

Okay. I'm going back even earlier than that. So maybe I'm digging back too far in my memory. I apologize for that.

好的。我還要追溯到更早的時候。所以，也許我回憶得太久遠了。對此我深感抱歉。

Maybe you could give us a little bit more color, like you did on Electrical Americas. Maybe you could talk about Electrical Global and what you saw there through the course of the fourth quarter and any supply chain issues. And you mentioned supply chain issues in the context of Electrical Americas, but what about copper prices? Are you concerned about input costs as you go through 2021?

或許您可以像之前談到美洲電氣市場一樣，再詳細闡述一下。或許您可以談談全球電氣市場，以及您在第四季度觀察到的情況和供應鏈方面的問題。您在談到美洲電氣市場時提到了供應鏈問題，那麼銅價呢？您是否擔心2021年的原料成本？

Yes. Appreciate that question, Ann. And I'd say very much like we experienced in the U.S., I'd say our Electrical Global business, while it did better than what we anticipated, you find many of the same trends where I'd say that residential markets, utility markets, data centers continue to be very strong.

是的。感謝你的提問，安。我想說，這和我們在美國的經驗非常相似。雖然我們的全球電氣業務表現超出預期，但你會發現許多趨勢都相同，例如住宅市場、公用事業市場和資料中心仍然非常強勁。

The one headwind we have that we -- in Electrical Global, as you know, we report our oil and gas exposure through Crouse-Hinds in our Electrical Global business. And the oil and gas markets continue to be weak. And so that's perhaps holding that business back a little bit.

我們目前面臨的一個不利因素是－如您所知，在電氣全球業務中，我們透過克勞斯-海因茲公司（Crouse-Hinds）報告我們的油氣業務曝險。而油氣市場持續疲軟。因此，這或許對該業務造成了一定的阻礙。

But with respect to supply chain, yes, we're absolutely seeing it. We're seeing inflationary pressures in copper. We're seeing it in some steel. We're seeing some availability and some pressures also on microprocessors and the like around the company. And the way I would think about that once again is that we've seen this stuff starting to kind of raise its head back in the fourth quarter. Our teams have been very busy putting together mitigation plans, largely around things that we can do to either change sourcing or taking our prices up in the marketplace.

但就供應鏈而言，是的，我們確實看到了這一點。我們看到銅價面臨通膨壓力，部分鋼鐵價格也面臨同樣的問題。公司內部的微處理器等產品也出現了供應緊張和壓力。我認為，這些問題早在第四季就開始顯現。我們的團隊一直在積極制定應對方案，主要包括改變採購管道和提高市場價格。

And while there could always be a quarter-or-so timing impact, we're confident that we'll be able to offset any inflation that we see in the business with either cost-reduction measures or through pricing in the marketplace.

雖然可能會有大約一個季度的時間影響，但我們相信，我們能夠透過降低成本的措施或透過市場定價來抵消我們在業務中看到的任何通貨膨脹。

But yes, no question, what you're hearing about copper and some of the other commodities is absolutely consistent with what we're seeing, which is maybe, on the other hand, is an indication also that markets are strengthening. So the other side of that equation, you typically see these commodity increases when the market is inflecting positively.

沒錯，毫無疑問，你聽到的關於銅和其他一些大宗商品的價格走勢與我們看到的完全一致，而這或許也表明市場正在走強。所以，從另一個角度來看，通常情況下，當市場出現積極轉機時，這些大宗商品的價格就會上漲。

Fair point. Appreciate it. And good luck, Rick.

說得有道理。謝謝。祝你好運，里克。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Next, we have the line of David Raso, Evercore ISI.

接下來是 David Raso 和 Evercore ISI 的產品線。

Congratulations, Rick.

恭喜你，里克。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I have 2 calculations I was hoping you can sanity check, and then a quick follow-up. At the end of '21, after all the businesses that are sold, acquired, on a pro forma basis, is the net debt-to-EBITDA for the company is about, I'd say, about 2.5x? And then on the accretion -- I'm sorry, if you can please answer that one first.

我有兩個計算結果想請您幫忙檢查一下，還有一個後續問題。 2021年底，在所有出售和收購的業務完成後，以備考基準計算，公司的淨債務與EBITDA之比約為2.5倍嗎？至於增值部分——不好意思，如果您能先回答這個問題就太好了。

Well, yes. Certainly, it has gone up a bit with this -- with EBITDA having come down somewhat in 2020. But when you're looking at 2021 EBITDA, it's hard to do that on the back of an envelope, but it sounds roughly correct.

是的。當然，由於2020年EBITDA有所下降，所以這個數字確實有所上升。但是，要預測2021年的EBITDA，很難憑空捏造，不過聽起來大致正確。

Yes. I tried to run it out through year-end and basically looked at it on pro forma, Hydraulics out for all year '21 and added the other deals and so forth, and did repo and dividends. So, okay.

是的。我嘗試把它運行到年底，基本上是按照預測財務報表做的，液壓業務的業績排在2021年全年，然後加上其他交易等等，還做了回購和分紅。好的。

In the second calc, the accretion from the deals. On the first full year of ownership -- not '21, full year of ownership, the accretion I'm coming up with is sort of $0.50 to $0.60 EPS. Is that sort of where we should be thinking?

在第二個計算中，是交易帶來的收益。在持有股份的第一個完整年度——不是2021年，而是持有股份的第一個完整年度——我計算出的收益大約是每股收益0.50美元到0.60美元。我們該往這個方向考慮嗎？

It's probably -- the way to think about it, Dave, is it's probably around -- if you just look at the gross accretion and you don't factor in the money that we're using to buy this, we would have used for repurchases or whatever. But if you look at the gross accretion, it's probably around $0.70. And one way to think about it is you get $0.25 in 2021, and you'll get another $0.45 in 2022.

戴夫，你可以這樣想：如果你只看總增值，不考慮我們用來購買這些股票的資金（這些資金原本會用於回購或其他用途），那麼總增值大概在0.70美元左右。另一種理解方式是，2021年你會獲得0.25美元，2022年你還會再獲得0.45美元。

And that's before taking, say, swag 2% lost opportunity for interest income or debt -- short-term debt for -- on the $4.5 billion?

而且這還沒算上，比如說，45億美元中損失的2%利息收入或債務——短期債務——的機會呢？

Yes. Yes, I'm just looking at the gross...

是的。是的，我只是在看噁心的東西…

For that. Okay. So it's about $0.50 to $0.60. Okay. And then after these -- I mean, obviously, you've been very active. I mean the last few days alone. But after these moves, should we think of the company more digestion mode through the end of '22 as a base case?

好的。所以大概是0.50到0.60美元。好的。然後，在這些之後——我的意思是，很明顯，你們一直都非常活躍。我是說，僅僅最近幾天就非常活躍。但在這些措施之後，我們是否應該將公司在2022年底前更多地置於消化階段作為基本預期？

I'd say that what we've always found to be the case is that deals are opportunistic in the sense that you never know when you're going to get an opportunity to buy a company that is the right strategic fit at the right multiple. And I'd say that from a capacity standpoint, we have capacity to do more. Our team certainly has an appetite to do more, and we continue to be active and having other conversations. And so I'd say you can expect us to continue to be opportunistic.

我認為，我們一直以來都發現，交易具有機會性，因為你永遠無法預知何時才能以合適的估值倍數收購一家策略契合度最高的公司。而且，從能力角度來看，我們還有能力進行更多收購。我們的團隊也渴望進行更多收購，我們一直在積極尋找其他機會並進行洽談。因此，我認為您可以期待我們繼續抓住機會。

I mean the good news about these acquisitions, while they're material in size in terms of impact on the company, they're relatively well contained in terms of which piece of the company will have the responsibility for integrating. So you could expect that the aerospace team will be busy, obviously, integrating Cobham. And so you could probably expect nothing material in addition to Cobham in Aerospace. But the company is large, and we have other businesses today where they have plenty of capacity to do things and to integrate acquisitions, if we can find the right company that is the right strategic fit at the right price.

我的意思是，這些收購的好消息是，雖然它們對公司的影響規模龐大，但就整合責任而言，各部門之間的連結相對清晰。所以，你可以預料到，航太團隊會忙於整合科巴姆公司。因此，除了科巴姆之外，航空航天部門可能不會有其他重大收購。但公司規模龐大，我們目前還有其他業務部門，它們有足夠的能力進行收購和整合，前提是我們能找到合適的、策略契合度高且價格合理的公司。

Next, we have the line of John Inch, Gordon Haskett.

接下來是約翰·英奇和戈登·哈斯克特的系列。

Rick, we're all jealous, so congratulations.

瑞克，我們都羨慕你，恭喜你。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I wanted to pick up on Ann Duignan's theme about the [ROS], Craig. How much visibility do you have, including, say, risk toward your project backlog and, say, margins profile? And considering, obviously, the Brightlayer inputs and cost increasing, how flexible is that? Are there clauses in it? Just any more color would be helpful.

克雷格，我想就安·杜伊尼安關於[ROS]的話題做些補充。你對它的了解程度如何？比如說，專案待辦事項的風險以及利潤率狀況？考慮到Brightlayer的輸入和成本不斷上漲，它的靈活性如何？裡面是否有相關條款？如果能提供更多資訊就更好了。

I appreciate the question because we obviously are carrying a very large backlog in our Electrical businesses, both in the Americas and globally. And I'd like -- what I would tell you about the backlog in general, that -- and as it relates to sort of the guidance that we provided, is that we factored all of that in. And so we understand what we have in the backlog. We understand the type of commodity inflation we're likely to experience this year based upon the run-up in commodities, steel, copper and others. And based upon that, we've come up with our kind of the outlook for the year.

感謝您的提問，因為我們的電氣業務目前積壓訂單量非常大，無論是在美洲還是全球範圍內。關於積壓訂單，我想說的是，我們已經將所有這些因素都考慮在內，並以此作為我們先前業績指引的依據。我們清楚了解目前的積壓訂單狀況，也了解今年大宗商品價格（包括鋼鐵、銅等）上漲可能帶來的通膨趨勢。基於這些因素，我們制定了今年的業績展望。

And so -- but I would tell you it's a bit of a mixed bag. In some cases, we're able to reprice things that are in the backlog based upon the agreements and the contracts with customers and basket of commodities and the like. In other cases, we cannot. But I think the important message for everyone to kind of appreciate is that all of that has been factored into the guidance that we provided for the year.

所以——但我必須說，情況有點複雜。在某些情況下，我們能夠根據與客戶的協議和合約以及商品組合等因素，對積壓訂單中的產品重新定價。但在其他情況下，我們則無法這樣做。但我認為，大家需要理解的重要一點是，所有這些因素都已納入我們今年的業績預期中。

No. That's fair. Are you raising prices now, by the way, whether it be projects or other items in anticipation of the [ROS] ? I know you said things lag kind of a quarter or 2. At what point you have to say, "We got to raise prices", versus sort of seeing if these moves are temporary? And I agree with you. I think it is a result of increasing -- it's a signal of increasing, improving demand and improving economy.

不，這很合理。順便問一下，你們現在是否因為預期銷售回報率（ROS）而提高價格，無論是專案還是其他產品？我知道您說過，價格上漲通常會落後一到兩個季度。那麼，在什麼情況下您需要宣布“我們必須提價”，而不是先觀察這些漲價措施是否只是暫時的呢？我同意您的觀點。我認為這是成長的結果——它是需求成長和經濟好轉的信號。

Yes. No, I'd say that -- I can tell you today that we have planning going on, in some cases, actions being taken across the company. And it will vary by customer, by market, by business. But the simple answer is there's either planning or activity taking place right now where we've seen and experienced inflation. Quite frankly, not just on the commodity side, but also in transportation and logistics.

是的。不，我想說的是──我可以今天告訴你們，我們正在進行規劃，在某些情況下，公司內部也在採取行動。具體情況會因客戶、市場和業務而異。但簡單來說，目前我們已經看到並經歷了通貨膨脹，而相關的規劃或行動也正在進行中。坦白說，通貨膨脹不僅體現在大宗商品領域，也體現在運輸和物流領域。

Yes. Makes sense. And just as a follow-up. Tom, I think one of the items that within his background that was flagged was perhaps his experience with respect to distribution and maybe the opportunity to help Eaton further build out its distribution network and growth opportunities outside of the U.S. I'm wondering if you guys could maybe expand upon what you see as this opportunity. And is this sort of a long-term vision? Or are there actual things you could actually be sort of working on in the near term?

是的，有道理。還有一個後續問題。湯姆，我認為他背景中被特別提及的一點可能是他在分銷方面的經驗，以及他或許能夠幫助伊頓進一步拓展其在美國以外的分銷網絡和增長機會。我想請你們詳細解釋一下你們對這個機會的看法。這是一種長期的規劃嗎？還是說你們近期有一些具體的工作要做？

Yes. What I'd add to that is, and as you know, most of our company goes to market through distribution. And it's -- I'd say, if you think about all of the core assets that Eaton has as an organization, our distributors and the relationship that we have with distributors is probably one of our greatest assets. And I think everybody is also well aware of the fact that the nature of distribution is changing. And as we think about Tom and what he can bring to the organization based upon his experience at places like Amazon, helping us think through the nature of distribution and helping our distributors, quite frankly, think through changes that they need to make within their businesses to deliver different kinds of experiences to their customers is where we would expect that Tom will put his fingerprints on the company. And we remain committed to distribution. We think it's a big part of our future. We'd like to do more through our existing distributors. And so we're just very hopeful and expect that Tom will bring some unique insights there.

是的。我想補充的是，正如您所知，我們公司的大部分產品都是透過分銷管道進入市場的。我認為，如果您仔細想想伊頓公司所有的核心資產，我們的經銷商以及我們與經銷商的關係可能​​是我們最大的資產之一。而且我認為大家都很清楚，分銷的本質正在改變。考慮到湯姆在亞馬遜等公司的經驗，以及他能為公司帶來的價值，我們期待他能幫助我們思考分銷的本質，並幫助我們的經銷商思考他們需要在業務中做出哪些改變，才能為客戶提供不同的體驗。坦白說，我們希望湯姆能為公司帶來一些獨特的貢獻。我們始終致力於分銷業務。我們認為它是我們未來發展的重要組成部分。我們希望透過現有的分銷商開展更多業務。因此，我們非常希望並期待湯姆能在這方面帶來一些獨特的見解。

Good luck, Rick.

祝你好運，里克。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you all. I think we're reaching the end of our call. We do appreciate everybody's questions. As always, Chip and I will be available to answer any follow-up questions. Thank you for joining us today, and have a great day. Thank you.

謝謝大家。我想我們的通話即將結束。非常感謝大家的提問。像往常一樣，我和Chip會隨時解答任何後續問題。感謝大家今天的參與，祝福大家有美好的一天。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the presentation for this morning. Again, we thank you very much for all of your participation and using AT&T's teleconferencing services. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天早上的示範到此結束。再次感謝各位的參與以及使用AT&T的電話會議服務。現在可以斷開連線了。