Energy Transfer LP (ET) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Energy Transfer Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Energy Transfer 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，該事件正在被記錄。

I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Tom Long, Co-CEO of Energy Transfer. Please go ahead.

我想將電話轉給 Energy Transfer 聯合執行長 Tom Long 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Energy Transfer Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. I'm also joined today by Mackie McCrea and other members of the senior management team who are here to help answer your questions after our prepared remarks.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。歡迎參加 Energy Transfer 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天，麥基·麥克雷 (Mackie McCrea) 和高級管理團隊的其他成員也加入了我的行列，他們在我們準備好的發言後在這裡幫助回答你們的問題。

Hopefully, you saw the press release we issued earlier this afternoon as well as the slides posted to our website. As a reminder, we will be making forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act from 1934. These statements are based upon our current beliefs as well as certain assumptions and information currently available to us and are discussed in more details in our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2023, which we expect to file tomorrow, November 2.

希望您看到我們今天下午早些時候發布的新聞稿以及發佈到我們網站上的幻燈片。謹此提醒，我們將根據1934 年《證券交易法》第21E 條的規定做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於我們當前的信念以及我們當前可獲得的某些假設和信息，並在更多內容中進行了討論。我們預計將於明天（11 月 2 日）提交截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的季度的 10-Q 表格的詳細資訊。

I'll also refer to adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow, or DCF, both of which are non-GAAP financial measures. You'll find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP financial measures on our website. We will start today by going over our financial results for the third quarter of 2023. We generated adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion compared to $3.1 billion for the third quarter of 2022.

我還將提及調整後的 EBITDA 和可分配現金流量（DCF），這兩者都是非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到我們的非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表。我們將從今天開始回顧 2023 年第三季的財務表現。我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 35 億美元，而 2022 年第三季為 31 億美元。

In our base business, we had strong performance across our operations, including record volumes through our NGL pipelines, fractionators and NGL and refined products terminals as well as record volumes in our crude segment. In addition, volumes in our intrastate and midstream segments remained near records.

在我們的基礎業務中，我們的業務表現強勁，包括液化天然氣管道、分餾塔、液化天然氣和成品油終端的創紀錄銷量，以及原油部門創紀錄的銷售量。此外，我們州內和中游部分的銷售量仍接近歷史記錄。

DCF attributable to the partners of Energy Transfer, as adjusted, was $2 billion compared to $1.6 billion for the third quarter of 2022. This resulted in excess cash flow after distributions of $1 billion.

調整後歸屬於 Energy Transfer 合作夥伴的 DCF 為 20 億美元，而 2022 年第三季為 16 億美元。這導致分配後的現金流量過剩 10 億美元。

On October 20th, we announced a quarterly cash distribution of $0.3125 per common unit or $1.25 on an annualized basis. This distribution represents an increase from the $0.265 in the third quarter of 2022.

10 月 20 日，我們宣布季度現金分配為每普通單位 0.3125 美元，或按年化計算 1.25 美元。這一分配比 2022 年第三季的 0.265 美元有所增加。

In August, Energy Transfer senior unsecured credit rating was upgraded by S&P to BBB with a stable outlook. We are pleased to have this third-party recognition of all the hard work that we have done over the last several years and as we have placed significant focus on our balance sheet and leverage reduction.

8月，標準普爾將Energy Transfer高級無抵押信用評等上調至BBB，展望穩定。我們很高興得到第三方對我們過去幾年所做的所有辛勤工作的認可，因為我們非常關注我們的資產負債表和槓桿削減​​。

As of September 30, 2023, the total available liquidity under our revolving credit facility was approximately $2.12 billion. During the third quarter of 2023, we spent $418 million on organic growth capital.

截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們的循環信貸安排下可用的流動資金總額約為 21.2 億美元。 2023 年第三季度，我們在有機成長資本上花費了 4.18 億美元。

And in October, we completed the sale of $4 billion of aggregate principal amount of senior notes and used the proceeds to repay borrowings on our revolving credit facility and prefunded 2024 maturities.

10 月份，我們完成了本金總額 40 億美元的高級票據的出售，並將所得款項用於償還我們的循環信貸安排的借款和 2024 年到期的預融資。

Now turning to our results by segment for the third quarter, starting with NGL and refined products. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.1 billion compared to $634 million for the third quarter of 2022. This was primarily due to strong performances across our transportation, storage, terminal and fractionation operations.

現在轉向我們第三季按細分市場劃分的業績，首先是液化天然氣和精煉產品。調整後 EBITDA 為 11 億美元，而 2022 年第三季為 6.34 億美元。這主要歸功於我們的運輸、儲存、碼頭和分餾業務的強勁表現。

We also saw strong contributions from our optimization of hedged NGL refined products inventories, where we recorded $107 million in marketing margin compared to a loss of $126 million in the third quarter of last year. NGL transportation volumes on our wholly owned and joint venture pipelines increased 14% to a record 2.2 million barrels per day compared to 1.9 million barrels per day for the same period last year. This increase was primarily due to higher volumes from the Permian region and on our NGL pipelines that delivered into our Nederland terminal as well as on the Mariner East pipeline system.

我們也看到了對沖 NGL 煉油產品庫存的優化做出了巨大貢獻，我們的行銷利潤達到了 1.07 億美元，而去年第三季的虧損為 1.26 億美元。我們獨資和合資管道的液化天然氣運輸量增加了 14%，達到創紀錄的每天 220 萬桶，而去年同期為每天 190 萬桶。這一增長主要是由於二疊紀地區以及輸送到荷蘭碼頭的液化天然氣管道以及 Mariner East 管道系統的產量增加。

Average fractionated volumes increased 9% to a record 1 million barrels per day compared to 940,000 barrels per day for the same period last year. Total NGL export volumes grew more than 20% over the third quarter of 2022, setting a new partnership record. This was primarily driven by increased international demand for NGLs.

平均分餾量成長 9%，達到創紀錄的 100 萬桶/日，去年同期為 94 萬桶/日。 2022 年第三季液化天然氣出口總量成長超過 20%，創下新的合作紀錄。這主要是由於國際上對液化天然氣的需求增加所致。

Through the first 9 months of this year, we loaded more than 47 million barrels of ethane out of Nederland and approximately 21 million barrels of ethane out of Marcus Hook. In total, we continue to export more NGLs than any other company during the third quarter and maintained an approximately 20% market share of worldwide NGL exports as well as nearly 40% of U.S. exports.

今年前 9 個月，我們從荷蘭裝載了超過 4,700 萬桶乙烷，從馬庫斯胡克裝載了約 2,100 萬桶乙烷。總的來說，我們第三季的液化天然氣出口量繼續超過任何其他公司，並保持全球液化天然氣出口約 20% 的市場份額以及美國出口的近 40%。

For midstream, adjusted EBITDA was $631 million compared to $868 million for the third quarter of 2022. We saw near record throughput again this quarter, which was the result of growth in the majority of our operating regions. The strong volume growth was more than offset by significantly lower natural gas and NGL prices.

就中游而言，調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.31 億美元，而 2022 年第三季為 8.68 億美元。本季我們的吞吐量再次接近創紀錄水平，這是我們大多數營運區域成長的結果。強勁的銷售成長被天然氣和液化天然氣價格的大​​幅下降所抵消。

Gathered gas volumes increased 4% to 19.8 million MMBtus per day compared to 19.1 million MMBtus per day for the same period last year.

收集的天然氣量增加了 4%，達到每天 1,980 萬 MMBtus，而去年同期為每天 1,910 萬 MMBtus。

For our crude oil segment, adjusted EBITDA was $706 million compared to $461 million for the third quarter of 2022. This was primarily due to higher volumes on several of our pipelines as well as the acquisition of the Lotus assets in May of this year.

對於我們的原油部門，調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.06 億美元，而 2022 年第三季為 4.61 億美元。這主要是由於我們的幾條管道的產量增加以及今年 5 月收購了 Lotus 資產。

In addition, G&A expenses decreased $126 million as a result of onetime charge related to the resolution of a legal matter in the prior period. Crude oil transportation volumes were a record 5.6 million barrels per day compared to 4.6 million barrels per day for the same period last year. This was a result of higher volumes on our Texas pipeline systems, the Bakken pipeline as well as the acquisition of the Lotus assets in May of this year.

此外，由於與上一期間解決法律問題相關的一次性費用，一般管理費用減少了 1.26 億美元。原油運輸量達到創紀錄的 560 萬桶/日，去年同期為 460 萬桶/日。這是由於我們德克薩斯州管道系統、巴肯管道的產量增加以及今年 5 月收購 Lotus 資產的結果。

In our Interstate segment, adjusted EBITDA was $491 million compared to $409 million in the third quarter of 2022. This increase was primarily due to placing the Gulf Run pipeline into service in December of 2022 as well as higher contracted volumes and interruptible utilization on several of our wholly owned and joint venture pipelines. Volumes increased 15% over the same period last year due to the Gulf Run pipeline being placed into service as well as higher utilization of many of our interstate pipelines, including Transwestern, Rover, Panhandle and Trunkline. We continue to fully utilize Zone 1 capacity on Gulf Run, and we are also maximizing deliveries into our Trunkline pipeline from Zone 2.

在我們的州際公路部門，調整後的EBITDA 為4.91 億美元，而2022 年第三季為4.09 億美元。這一增長主要是由於Gulf Run 管道於2022 年12 月投入使用，以及合約增加和多個管道的可中斷使用。我們的全資和合資管道。由於 Gulf Run 管道投入使用以及我們許多州際管道（包括 Transwestern、Rover、Panhandle 和 Trunkline）利用率的提高，銷量比去年同期增長了 15%。我們繼續充分利用 Gulf Run 的 1 區產能，並且還最大限度地提高從 2 區到幹線管道的輸送量。

And for our intrastate segment, adjusted EBITDA was $244 million compared to $301 million in the third quarter of last year. Benefits from favorable storage optimization and new contracts on our Texas and Haynesville pipelines as well as lower operating expenses were more than offset by decreases resulting from lower spreads across our intrastate pipeline network and lower natural gas pricing.

對於我們的州內部門，調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.44 億美元，而去年第三季為 3.01 億美元。有利的儲存優化和德克薩斯州和海恩斯維爾管道的新合約以及較低的營運費用所帶來的好處，被我們州內管道網路的價差降低和天然氣定價降低帶來的減少所抵消。

Now turning to our acquisition of Crestwood Equity Partners, which we announced in August of this year. As many of you have probably seen, earlier this week, Crestwood unitholders voted to approve the merger between Energy Transfer and Crestwood. The acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to DCF per unit upon closing.

現在談談我們今年 8 月宣布的 Crestwood Equity Partners 的收購。正如你們許多人可能已經看到的那樣，本週早些時候，Crestwood 單位持有者投票批准了 Energy Transfer 和 Crestwood 之間的合併。此次收購預計在交易完成後將立即增加單位 DCF。

In addition, this transaction will extend Energy Transfer's position in the value chain deeper into the Williston and Delaware basins, while also providing entry into the Powder River Basin. These assets are expected to complement Energy Transfer's downstream fractionation capacity at Mont Belvieu as well as its hydrocarbon export capabilities from both our Nederland and Marcus Hook terminals.

此外，這筆交易還將把Energy Transfer在價值鏈中的地位進一步擴大到威利斯頓和特拉華盆地，同時也提供了進入粉河盆地的機會。這些資產預計將補充 Energy Transfer 在 Mont Belvieu 的下游分餾能力以及我們的 Nederland 和 Marcus Hook 終端的碳氫化合物出口能力。

We also expect benefits within our NGL and refined products and crude oil businesses with the addition of strategically located storage and terminal assets. We now expect the acquisition to close on November 3, and we expect to achieve approximately $40 million in annual cost synergies before additional anticipated benefits from financial and commercial synergies.

我們也預計，透過增加戰略位置的儲存和碼頭資產，我們的液化天然氣、成品油和原油業務將受益。我們現在預計此次收購將於 11 月 3 日完成，在獲得財務和商業協同效應帶來的額外預期收益之前，我們預計將實現約 4000 萬美元的年度成本協同效應。

Turning to our growth projects and starting with our Nederland and Marcus export terminals. September and October were our best months ever across our NGL export terminals, and these terminals continue to benefit from increased demand, both in the U.S. as well as from international customers.

談到我們的成長項目，首先從我們的荷蘭和馬庫斯出口碼頭開始。 9 月和 10 月是我們 NGL 出口碼頭有史以來最好的月份，這些碼頭繼續受益於美國和國際客戶需求的成長。

Earlier this year, we FID-ed an expansion to our NGL export capacity at Nederland in order to address the growing demand. We expect this expansion, which is projected to cost approximately $1.25 billion to add up to 250,000 barrels per day of export capacity. The project is expected to be in service in mid-2025 and will give us flexibility to load various products based upon customer demand. Construction is underway, and we look forward to providing more specifics on this expansion as it progresses.

今年早些時候，我們透過最終投資決定擴大了荷蘭的液化天然氣出口能力，以滿足不斷增長的需求。我們預計這項擴張預計將花費約 12.5 億美元，將出口能力增加到每天 25 萬桶。該專案預計將於 2025 年中期投入使用，將使我們能夠根據客戶需求靈活地裝載各種產品。施工正在進行中，我們期待在進展過程中提供有關此擴展的更多細節。

We also continue to pursue an optimization project at our Marcus Hook terminal that we project would add incremental ethane refrigeration and storage capacity.

我們也繼續在馬庫斯胡克碼頭進行優化項目，我們預計該項目將增加乙烷冷凍和儲存能力。

At Mont Belvieu, we placed Frac VIII into service in August, which brought our total Mont Belvieu fractionation capacity to over 1.15 million barrels per day. As a result, in October, throughput at our fractionators reached an all-time high.

在 Mont Belvieu，我們在 8 月將 Frac VIII 投入使用，這使我們的 Mont Belvieu 總分餾能力達到每天超過 115 萬桶。因此，十月份，我們分餾塔的吞吐量達到了歷史最高水準。

Out in the Delaware Basin, we have placed 200 million cubic foot per day processing plants into service since December of 2022, and we now have a total of eight 200 million cubic foot per day processing plants operating in the Delaware Basin. Our plan remains near record highs, and we continue to contemplate the necessity and potential timing of adding another processing plant in the Permian Basin while considering any available new capacity that we acquired via the Crestwood acquisition.

在特拉華盆地，自 2022 年 12 月以來，我們已將每天 2 億立方英尺的加工廠投入使用，目前特拉華盆地共有 8 個每天 2 億立方英尺的加工廠正在運作。我們的計劃仍接近歷史高位，我們繼續考慮在二疊紀盆地增加另一個加工廠的必要性和潛在時機，同時考慮我們透過收購 Crestwood 獲得的任何可用新產能。

Next, an update on our Lake Charles LNG project. We continue to see significant interest in our LNG capacity from U.S. producers and international markets. We are in negotiations with several significant equity partners and are ultimately targeting retaining an interest of approximately 20% for Energy Transfer. These potential equity partners are also interested in substantial volumes of LNG offtake.

接下來是我們查爾斯湖液化天然氣計畫的最新情況。我們繼續看到美國生產商和國際市場對我們的液化天然氣產能表現出濃厚的興趣。我們正在與幾個重要的股權合作夥伴進行談判，最終目標是保留 Energy Transfer 約 20% 的權益。這些潛在的股權合作夥伴也對大量液化天然氣的承購感興趣。

We are in negotiations to finalize our EPC contract, and we are receiving tremendous support from domestic and international customers, community stakeholders and other interested constituents who are actively encouraging the Department of Energy to approve our pending export authorization application on an expedited basis.

我們正在談判敲定我們的 EPC 合同，我們得到了國內外客戶、社區利益相關者和其他利益相關者的大力支持，他們積極鼓勵能源部加快批准我們待決的出口授權申請。

And now for an update on a few other projects. On the carbon capture and sequestration front, we are continuing to make progress with CapturePoint. This project entails the capture of CO2 from our treating plants in North Louisiana and the construction of a pipeline to a sequestration site in Central Louisiana. We are continuing to work with Oxy to develop a CCS project in Lake Charles, Louisiana area. This would include the construction of a CO2 pipeline connecting our industrial facilities to Oxy's proposed sequestration site.

現在介紹一些其他項目的最新情況。在碳捕獲和封存方面，我們正在透過 CapturePoint 繼續取得進展。該專案需要從我們位於路易斯安那州北部的處理廠捕獲二氧化碳，並建造一條通往路易斯安那州中部封存地點的管道。我們將繼續與 Oxy 合作，在路易斯安那州查爾斯湖地區開發 CCS 專案。這將包括建造一條二氧化碳管道，將我們的工業設施與 Oxy 提議的封存地點連接起來。

On the blue ammonia front, we are working with several companies to evaluate the feasibility of ammonia projects that would include significant natural gas supply opportunities, deepwater dock access and other infrastructure services on existing Energy Transfer property near our Lake Charles and Nederland facilities. Additionally, we are working on CCS projects related to our processing plants and treating facilities in South Texas and West Texas, and we are evaluating other CO2 pipeline projects that would connect CO2 emitters to CO2 sequestration sites in the Houston Ship Channel corridor.

在藍氨方面，我們正在與幾家公司合作，評估氨項目的可行性，其中包括重要的天然氣供應機會、深水碼頭通道以及我們查爾斯湖和荷蘭設施附近現有能源傳輸設施的其他基礎設施服務。此外，我們正在進行與南德克薩斯州和西德克薩斯州的加工廠和處理設施相關的CCS 項目，並且我們正在評估其他二氧化碳管道項目，這些項目將把二氧化碳排放源連接到休斯頓航道走廊的二氧化碳封存地點。

Finally, we are evaluating the use of some of our existing 250,000 acres of land in Virginia, West Virginia and Kentucky for wind, solar, forestry, carbon credits and other uses. The Virginia Department of Energy has spent considerable time and effort evaluating a variety of projects on 65,000 acres located in Southwest Virginia.

最後，我們正在評估維吉尼亞州、西維吉尼亞州和肯塔基州現有 250,000 英畝土地的風能、太陽能、林業、碳信用和其他用途的使用情況。維吉尼亞能源部花費了大量的時間和精力來評估位於維吉尼亞州西南部 65,000 英畝土地上的各種項目。

Now looking at our growth capital spend for the 9 months ended September 30, 2023, Energy Transfer spent $1.2 billion on organic growth projects, primarily in the Midstream and NGL and refined products segments, excluding SUN and USA Compression CapEx. For full year 2023, we expect growth capital expenditures to come in slightly below our previously announced guidance of $2 billion, including growth capital related to Crestwood.

現在來看看截至2023 年9 月30 日的9 個月的成長資本支出，Energy Transfer 在有機成長項目上花費了12 億美元，主要是在中游、液化天然氣和煉油產品領域，不包括SUN 和USA Compression資本支出。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計成長資本支出將略低於我們先前宣布的 20 億美元指導，其中包括與 Crestwood 相關的成長資本。

Looking ahead, we continue to evaluate a number of other potential growth projects that we hope to bring to FID. We expect to provide our 2024 growth capital outlook on our fourth quarter earnings call. However, as we look forward to our potential backlog of high-returning growth projects, we continue to expect our long-term annual growth capital run rate to be approximately $2 billion to $3 billion.

展望未來，我們將繼續評估希望提交 FID 的其他一些潛在成長項目。我們預計將在第四季財報電話會議上提供 2024 年成長資本展望。然而，當我們期待高回報成長項目的潛在積壓時，我們仍然預期我們的長期年度成長資本運作率將約為 20 億至 30 億美元。

Now for adjusted EBITDA guidance. For the full year 2023, we now expect our adjusted EBITDA to be between $13.5 billion and $13.6 billion, including 2 months of Crestwood. We continue to see strong volumes and stable cash flows throughout our business segments with recently completed growth projects contributing several records in the third quarter.

現在調整後的 EBITDA 指導。對於 2023 年全年，我們目前預計調整後 EBITDA 將在 135 億美元至 136 億美元之間，其中包括 2 個月的 Crestwood。我們繼續看到整個業務部門的強勁銷售和穩定的現金流，最近完成的成長項目在第三季創造了多項記錄。

Looking ahead, we are excited to close on the acquisition of Crestwood later this week. We look forward to working with the new Crestwood employees as we integrate these new assets into our Energy Transfer franchise. We believe the combination of these businesses will present strategic commercial opportunities and efficiencies. We expect the newly acquired Crestwood assets as well as the growth projects completed throughout this year to provide additional opportunities and positive momentum for the rest of this year and going into next year.

展望未來，我們很高興能在本週稍後完成對 Crestwood 的收購。我們期待與新的 Crestwood 員工合作，將這些新資產整合到我們的能源傳輸特許經營權中。我們相信這些業務的合併將帶來策略性商業機會和效率。我們預計新收購的 Crestwood 資產以及今年完成的成長項目將為今年剩餘時間和明年提供更多機會和積極動力。

We will continue to pursue strategic optimization and expansion projects that enhance our existing asset base, generate attractive returns and meet the growing demand for our products and services. Our financial position remains strong, and we remain committed to our targeted annual distribution growth rate, which we will continue to balance with leverage reduction, increasing equity returns and maintaining sufficient cash flows to pursue growth opportunities.

我們將繼續尋求策略性優化和擴張項目，以增強我們現有的資產基礎，產生有吸引力的回報並滿足對我們產品和服務不斷增長的需求。我們的財務狀況依然強勁，我們仍然致力於實現目標年度分配成長率，我們將繼續透過降低槓桿、提高股本回報率和保持充足的現金流來平衡這一目標，以尋求成長機會。

This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line up for our first question.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。接線員，請打開隊列回答我們的第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) First question will be from Jeremy Tonet today of JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）第一個問題將由摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet 今天提出。

Just wanted to start off, if I could. If you could just provide a high-level thoughts for us. As the platform sits now after a number of acquisitions and projects, what type of organic growth level do you see innate in your business? What type of EBITDA growth for your base business do you see?

如果可以的話，我只是想開始。如果您能為我們提供高層次的想法就好了。由於該平台經過多次收購和項目，現在處於何種水平，您認為您的業務固有的有機成長水平是什麼？您認為您的基礎業務的 EBITDA 成長是什麼樣的？

And also at the same time, I guess, how does this impact your capital allocation philosophy? I think there's somewhat newer slide in the deck there that maybe alludes to buybacks, potential there or distribution increases as well. So just wondering if you could update us on these front.

同時，我想，這對您的資本配置概念有何影響？我認為那裡有一些較新的幻燈片，可能暗示了回購、潛力或分配的增加。所以只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹這些方面的最新情況。

Yes. For sure, Jeremy. Listen, we've put out the guidance of that $2 billion to $3 billion a year. And we still have at least a mid-teen type returns or high IT-type returns. So you can kind of see the growth rate from there. We're going to stay with that 3% to 5% growth rate on the distributions at this time. Clearly, we talk about that at every single board meeting. So that's kind of the math, I think, on the growth that you can see.

是的。當然，傑里米。聽著，我們已經提出了每年 20 億至 30 億美元的指導。我們仍然至少有中等青少年類型的回報或高 IT 類型的回報。所以你可以從那裡看到成長率。目前我們將維持 3% 到 5% 的分配成長率。顯然，我們在每次董事會會議上都會討論這一點。我認為，這就是你可以看到的成長的數學計算。

Now remember, we still have the kind of the 85%, 15% fixed versus floating. Now it's moved into more of 90-10 just because the commodity prices are lower. So that scales around based upon where those prices are from that standpoint. So when you factor all that in and then all the other optimization opportunities that we will definitely jump on when those opportunities present themselves, I think you can kind of look at that type of growth rate. But I will say that we're going to stay with our normal schedule, meaning that with the fourth quarter earnings results, we will update the 2024 EBITDA guidance -- adjusted EBITDA guidance with you.

現在請記住，我們仍然有 85%、15% 固定與浮動的類型。現在它已經進入了 90-10 的範圍，只是因為商品價格較低。因此，從這個角度來看，這取決於這些價格的情況。因此，當你將所有這些因素考慮在內，然後當這些機會出現時，我們肯定會抓住所有其他優化機會，我認為你可以看看這種類型的成長率。但我想說的是，我們將保持正常的時間表，這意味著根據第四季度的盈利結果，我們將與您一起更新 2024 年 EBITDA 指導——調整後的 EBITDA 指導。

And the second part, Jeremy, did you want to just talk about the unitholder buyback? Was that the second part of your question there?

第二部分，傑瑞米，您只想談談單位持有者回購嗎？這是你問題的第二部分嗎？

Yes. Overall, capital allocation, I guess, and thoughts in light of what you talked about for organic opportunities.

是的。總的來說，我猜是資本配置，以及根據您談到的有機機會的想法。

Yes. Well, it's -- the capital allocation is really consistent with what we've been saying for a while. In other words, we're going to continue to focus on the balance sheet. And it's a great place to be as you start approaching the low end of our 4 to 4.5x leverage target.

是的。嗯，資本配置確實與我們一段時間以來所說的一致。換句話說，我們將繼續關注資產負債表。當您開始接近我們 4 至 4.5 倍槓桿目標的低端時，這是一個很好的地方。

So I think when you continue to look out and you look at all of these growth projects, you look at the distribution growth that we're looking at that the unitholder buyback clearly remains as an option that we'll look at. You're probably going to look at being at the very low end of that range, if not a 3 handle on it, the upper 3 before you could start seeing opportunistically starting to buy back units. But that's the way that you should probably look at that.

因此，我認為，當您繼續關注所有這些增長項目時，您會看到我們正在考慮的分配增長，單位持有人回購顯然仍然是我們將考慮的一種選擇。在您開始機會性地開始回購單位之前，您可能會考慮處於該範圍的最低端（如果不是 3 個手柄的話），也就是上 3 個手柄。但這可能就是你應該看待的方式。

Got it. That's helpful there. And then I just want to, I guess, shift gears a little bit towards the Permian, just wondering if you could provide us. So I think you touched on a bit in your prepared remarks as far as growth opportunities there. But just wondering how you see that, I guess, scaling over time, particularly as it relates to the NGL business and opportunities along that value chain. It seems like the NGL and products business had quite a nice step-up this quarter. And just wondering if you could highlight a bit more of what was happening there.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我想，我想，稍微轉向二疊紀，只是想知道你是否能為我們提供。因此，我認為您在準備好的發言中談到了那裡的成長機會。但我想知道您如何看待隨著時間的推移而擴大規模，特別是因為它與 NGL 業務和價值鏈上的機會有關。看起來 NGL 和產品業務本季取得了相當不錯的進步。只是想知道您是否可以重點介紹那裡發生的事情。

Yes, Jeremy, this is Mackie. What an exciting area. If you look at the consolidation that's going on upstream, a lot of that, of course, is around the bigger deals in the Permian Basin. And as you know, most on this call, nobody is better positioned to capitalize that Energy Transfer from every standpoint from gathering, processing NGL takeaway intra, interstate pipeline takeaway, improve takeaway.

是的，傑里米，這是麥基。多麼令人興奮的領域。如果你看看上游正在進行的整合，當然，其中很多都是圍繞著二疊紀盆地的更大交易進行的。如您所知，在這次電話會議上，沒有人比從收集、處理 NGL 外賣內部、州際管道外賣、改進外賣等各個角度更好地利用能源轉移。

And so it all kind of begins upstream with our G&P group and our NGL team working to purchase not only those barrels from our affiliate, but also barrels from others out in that basin. And we couldn't be more excited and well positioned to meet the growth out there, and it kind of feeds into our entire partnership revenue stream when you take all that downstream and then ultimately frac. And a lot it is, of course, hitting our export markets now. So what an incredible area of the world that we've heavily invested in, and we see it paying off for many years to come.

因此，這一切都從上游開始，我們的 G&P 集團和 NGL 團隊不僅從我們的附屬公司購買這些桶，還從該盆地的其他公司購買桶。我們非常興奮，並且處於有利地位來滿足那裡的成長，當你把所有這些下游，然後最終壓裂時，它會進入我們整個合作夥伴的收入流。當然，現在很多產品都在衝擊我們的出口市場。因此，我們在世界上的一個令人難以置信的領域進行了大量投資，並且我們看到它在未來許多年裡得到回報。

And if I could just follow up real quick on that, I guess, on the other side of the NGL equation, just how much demand you see materializing, how that impacts pricing for NGLs as you see kind of the LPG is continuing to price to export or just any broader thoughts on NGL supply-demand dynamics and impact on NGL pricing.

如果我能快速跟進這一點，我想，在 NGL 等式的另一邊，您看到的需求量有多少，這如何影響 NGL 的定價，因為您看到 LPG 的價格繼續上漲出口或對NGL 供需動態以及對NGL 定價影響的任何更廣泛的想法。

It's hard to overexaggerate the ethane and more importantly, the LPG growth. Assets cannot be built quick enough in the U.S. to meet the international demand. Everybody knows about the PDHs that are being built in Asia. Especially in China, there's a lot of ethane crackers that are being built. So you really can't build quick enough.

乙烷的成長無論如何誇大都不為過，更重要的是液化石油氣的成長。美國的資產建設速度無法滿足國際需求。每個人都知道亞洲正在建設的PDH。特別是在中國，正在建造大量乙烷裂解裝置。所以你確實無法建造得夠快。

But we've been very prudent. We've announced our Flexport project. It's Flexport project that's under budget, on track, which we'll have that in service by the third quarter of '25. We're close to fully selling that out, and we're analyzing another expansion. It would be a much less expensive expansion and a much less cost per barrel to expand more. So we're going to continue to make sure that all of the gas that we're gathering and processing that we have a home for all those liquids. So we're looking ahead and we see significant growth in our NGL business, especially in our export business, both on the Gulf Coast and Marcus Hook, once again, for many years to come.

但我們一直非常謹慎。我們已經宣布了 Flexport 項目。 Flexport 專案低於預算，進展順利，我們將在 25 年第三季投入使用。我們即將完全出售該產品，並且正在分析另一次擴展。這將是一次更便宜的擴張，每桶擴張的成本也會低得多。因此，我們將繼續確保我們收集和處理的所有氣體都有一個存放所有這些液體的家。因此，我們展望未來，我們看到我們的液化天然氣業務，特別是我們的出口業務，在墨西哥灣沿岸和馬庫斯胡克，在未來的許多年裡將再次顯著成長。

Got it. Makes sense. It seems to certainly build momentum for your Panama initiatives there. I'll leave it there.

知道了。說得通。這似乎肯定會為你們在巴拿馬的倡議創造動力。我會把它留在那裡。

Next question will be from Spiro Dounis of Citi.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的 Spiro Dounis 提出。

Just want to go back to one of Jeremy's questions actually. And Tom, fully respect that you're not in a position to provide '21 guidance yet, but maybe just looking at the S4 filing from Crestwood as we look to 2024. I know it's not guidance, but some of those pro forma numbers seem to indicate you guys would be approaching $15 billion in EBITDA next year on a combined basis. And so a pretty meaningful step up in 2023. So just wondering qualitatively or however you see fit, maybe help us bridge from 2023 to those S4 numbers? And I mean, what parts of the business could be driving that upside?

實際上只想回到傑里米的問題之一。湯姆，完全尊重你還無法提供 21 年指導，但也許只是看看 Crestwood 的 S4 文件，因為我們展望 2024 年。我知道這不是指導，但其中一些預計數字似乎表明你們明年的EBITDA 合計將接近150 億美元。因此，2023 年是一個非常有意義的進步。因此，只是想知道定性或您認為合適的方式，也許可以幫助我們從 2023 年過渡到 S4 數字？我的意思是，業務的哪些部分可以推動這種成長？

Yes. No, listen, it's great to be talking about a number that has a $15 billion annually. So let's start with that. When you look at that S4, remember that those were estimates, we take our estimates very seriously when we file these things, obviously. And we are still in the process of finishing up the 2024 budget numbers, et cetera, which all go into the guidance, and that's the reason we'll always wait until that fourth quarter to come out with the very best numbers that we can.

是的。不，聽著，談論一個每年 150 億美元的數字真是太棒了。那麼就讓我們從這個開始吧。當您查看 S4 時，請記住這些只是估計值，顯然，當我們歸檔這些內容時，我們會非常認真地對待我們的估計值。我們仍在完成 2024 年預算數字等，這些數字都將納入指導，這就是我們總是等到第四季度才能提供最佳數字的原因。

But listen, Spiro, we sure hope we hit these numbers. It would be great even if we came out with something more. But let us skip through that before we put out any type of official guidance on that. We're so excited about everything we're seeing at this stage with closing on the transaction on Friday. It's going to give us now the opportunity to even start digging deeper into the other synergies that we didn't make in any of the estimates, especially the commercial synergies. So let us get through the close on Friday, and we're going to be very excited to be able to talk about what the '24 numbers should look like. But yes, what a great place to be, to be up to the earnings numbers this high.

但是聽著，斯皮羅，我們當然希望我們能達到這些數字。即使我們能推出更多東西，那就太好了。但在我們就此發布任何類型的官方指導之前，讓我們先跳過這一點。我們對現階段所看到的一切感到非常興奮，交易將於週五完成。現在，我們將有機會開始深入挖掘我們在任何估計中都沒有做出的其他協同效應，尤其是商業協同效應。因此，讓我們在周五收盤後，我們將非常高興能夠討論 24 年的數字應該是什麼樣子。但是，是的，這是一個多麼好的地方啊，能夠達到如此高的獲利數字。

Yes. No, no, fair enough. And we'll do our best to stay patient. One quick follow-up once again going back to capital return. Just as we think about the distribution growth, you're on the sort of nice cadence now that's become predictable, and you talked about the 3% to 5% range. I guess I'm just curious, what would you need to see to flex towards the higher end of that range? Is that a function of getting leverage lower? Or is it something else you're really focused on?

是的。不，不，這很公平。我們將盡力保持耐心。快速跟進再次回到資本回報。正如我們考慮分配成長一樣，您現在處於一種可以預測的良好節奏，並且您談到了 3% 到 5% 的範圍。我想我只是好奇，你需要看到什麼才能向該範圍的高端彎曲？這是降低槓桿的函數嗎？還是您真正關注的其他事情？

Well, the leverage is within our target. So I wouldn't want to necessarily guide you toward that, that 4% to 4.5%. You can already see that we got the 1 upgrade from S&P, like we mentioned. And the other 2 have us on a positive outlook, and we're going to continue to work with them to get that -- those up to that mid- kind of that BBB level.

嗯，槓桿在我們的目標之內。所以我不一定要引導你走向那個 4% 到 4.5% 的方向。正如我們所提到的，您已經可以看到我們獲得了標準普爾的 1 次升級。另外兩個讓我們對前景抱持著積極的態度，我們將繼續與他們合作以實現這一目標——那些達到 BBB 中等水平的人。

So I think the other component we always look at is we're always looking out at the coverage ratio, making sure that we're staying in a good solid range there. But as much as any, we're also looking at a lot of the growth opportunities. So the usual capital allocation debates that you have -- any company has here, and that's what we're going to evaluate. But it's not a matter of looking at any one single point in time. It is a matter of looking out with the best crystal ball we have over the next 3, 4, 5 years. So we try to make decisions here that we stick with without kind of jumping up and down or moving around with them.

所以我認為我們經常關注的另一個組成部分是我們總是專注於覆蓋率，確保我們保持在一個良好的穩定範圍內。但與其他事情一樣，我們也在尋找大量的成長機會。因此，任何公司都會有常見的資本配置辯論，這就是我們要評估的內容。但這不是關注任何一個單一時間點的問題。這是用我們擁有的最好的水晶球來展望未來 3、4、5 年的問題。因此，我們嘗試在這裡做出我們堅持的決定，而不是上下跳躍或隨波逐流。

Next question from Michael Blum of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可布魯姆。

Wanted to ask on CapEx, both in terms of this year, just what exactly is driving the reduction there, slight reduction. And then for next year, if I recall correctly, your last update, I know you said your long-term run rate, you think, is $2 billion to $3 billion, but I think at least as of last update, you said -- you don't even have $2 billion of committed projects yet for '24. So just wanted to get the latest update on where that stands as well.

想詢問今年的資本支出，到底是什麼推動了資本支出的減少，輕微的減少。然後明年，如果我沒記錯的話，你上次更新，我知道你說你的長期運行率，你認為，是 20 億到 30 億美元，但我認為至少截至上次更新，你說——你甚至還沒有為24 年承諾20 億美元的項目。所以只是想了解最新情況。

Yes, Michael, as far as the first part of your question, I would say that we continue to work on some very, very good projects. Some of that's going to be a bit of timing. But even with that, I want to be careful using that word because it doesn't mean that 2024's necessarily going to go up.

是的，邁克爾，就你問題的第一部分而言，我想說我們將繼續致力於一些非常非常好的項目。其中一些需要一些時機。但即便如此，我還是要小心使用這個詞，因為它並不代表 2024 年一定會上升。

But that blend straight into the second part of your question. If you really kind of look at that $2 billion to $3 billion, you could use $750 million a year that are just kind of those, call it, growth capital projects that well connects all the other great projects we have that are good, high-returning projects that help with the utilization, optimization of our system overall, especially with the M&A that we've been so successful on. A lot of these projects fall kind of in that category of that of that first $750 million.

但這直接融入你問題的第二部分。如果你真的考慮一下這20 億到30 億美元，你可以每年使用7.5 億美元，這些項目就是那些所謂的成長資本項目，這些項目很好地連接了我們擁有的所有其他優秀項目，這些項目都是好的、高的——返回有助於整體利用和優化我們系統的項目，特別是我們在併購方面非常成功的項目。其中許多項目都屬於最初 7.5 億美元的類別。

I will say that with some of the stuff that we've talked about, I know Mackie has talked about here is that those are the other projects that aren't necessarily to FID. So we can't say that we've got all of that field in right now by any means. The other $2 billion or so from that standpoint, we'll continue to work on them. I think we feel good about a lot of the projects. So it's -- once again, it's probably the $750 million, and then we'll be talking more about the other projects as we get them to FID. The one that we did highlight in the prepared remarks, of course, was Flexport.

我想說的是，對於我們討論過的一些內容，我知道 Mackie 在這裡討論的是那些不一定需要 FID 的其他項目。因此，我們無論如何都不能說我們現在已經掌握了該領域的所有內容。從這個角度來看，另外 20 億美元左右，我們將繼續努力。我認為我們對很多項目都感覺良好。所以，這可能是 7.5 億美元，然後我們將在其他項目進行最終投資決定時更多地討論它們。當然，我們在準備好的發言中強調的就是 Flexport。

Got it. Okay. That helps. And then it sounds like a pretty encouraging update on Lake Charles. So I guess what I'm wondering is, what would be the earliest time frame from your perspective where you think Lake Charles could actually get to FID and then in service?

知道了。好的。這有幫助。這聽起來像是查爾斯湖的一個非常令人鼓舞的更新。所以我想我想知道的是，從您的角度來看，您認為查爾斯湖實際上可以達到 FID 然後投入使用的最早時間範圍是多少？

Mike, this is Mackie. A tough question in that. We've got a lot of balls in the air. We've covered it pretty well with Tom's remarks. So we're sitting in a really good position. We really need to get the DOE to extend the permit. We think they will. We've got, as we've said, a lot of folks involved behind the scenes, trying to make that happen, including other countries and other businesses and other countries.

麥克，這是麥基。這是一個棘手的問題。我們有很多球在空中。我們已經透過湯姆的評論很好地介紹了這一點。所以我們處於一個非常好的位置。我們確實需要讓能源部延長許可證。我們認為他們會的。正如我們所說，我們有很多人在幕後參與，努力實現這一目標，其中包括其他國家、其他企業和其他國家。

But we're just keeping our head down pushing. We don't really have a lot of estimates. We are hopeful that we'll have some from the DOE by sometime kind of mid-first quarter. We're pushing and others are also pushing them to maybe do that sooner, but we don't know. It's a regulatory agency that we're working closely with and hope to make that happen sooner than later.

但我們只是低著頭推動。我們確實沒有太多的估計。我們希望在第一季中期的某個時候能從能源部獲得一些資訊。我們正在推動，其他人也在推動他們盡快這樣做，但我們不知道。我們正在與該監管機構密切合作，並希望儘早實現這一目標。

But in the meantime, Tom Mason and his team are working hard, in fact, over there now, trying to finalize a lot of these contracts and agreements around equity as well as new LNG off-takers. And so it's hard to kind of predict that. But everything went exceptionally well. The second quarter could be a possible building, but we'll see how things go over the next 3 or 4 months.

但與此同時，湯姆·梅森和他的團隊實際上正在那裡努力工作，試圖敲定許多圍繞股權以及新的液化天然氣承購商的合約和協議。所以很難預測這一點。但一切都異常順利。第二季可能會建成，但我們將看看未來 3 或 4 個月的情況如何。

Next question will be from Brian Reynolds, UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布萊恩雷諾茲 (Brian Reynolds) 提出。

Maybe to follow up on some CapEx questions as it relates to the Permian natural gas egress. It seems like we could be seeing the last brownfield expansion get contracted here over the near future. But beyond that, it seems like we need a larger pipe, which Warrior still exist out there. So kind of just as it relates to Warrior projects at this juncture, has the scope or size of the project changed or evolved since you started marketing the project a few years ago, just to perhaps meet specific customer needs and to get the project ultimately FID?

也許是為了跟進一些與二疊紀天然氣出口相關的資本支出問題。看來我們可能會在不久的將來看到最後的棕地擴張在這裡收縮。但除此之外，我們似乎還需要一根更大的管道，而 Warrior 仍然存在。就像此時與 Warrior 專案相關一樣，自從您幾年前開始行銷專案以來，專案的範圍或規模是否發生了變化或演變，也許只是為了滿足特定的客戶需求並讓專案最終獲得 FID ？

Yes, Brian, this is Mackie again. We actually started really aggressively marketing this first part of this year, but we are pushing hard. As we've mentioned, we've got about 25% already signed up. We're working on another -- several other shippers that would bring us to about 60% or 65%, but we're going to be pretty careful in this. We're very comfortable, like we always are. We're going to be prudent. We're not going to move forward with that on FID until we have a substantial amount of that capacity sold out. And it also will feed into not only markets that we're already connected to with our intrastate network, but also we'll have a lot of kind of momentum if some of these other LNG products get projects get to FID.

是的，布萊恩，這又是麥基。事實上，我們從今年上半年開始非常積極地進行行銷，但我們正在努力推動。正如我們所提到的，大約 25% 的人已經註冊。我們正在與其他幾家托運商合作，這將使我們達到 60% 或 65% 左右，但我們在這方面會非常小心。我們很舒服，就像往常一樣。我們會謹慎行事。在大量產能售罄之前，我們不會繼續推進最終投資決定。它不僅會進入我們已經透過州內網路連接的市場，而且如果其他一些液化天然氣產品項目獲得最終投資決定，我們也會有很大的動力。

So we're kind of like a lot of these big projects we're working on, they're just taking time. We see spreads other than a few days or weeks where it blows out a little bit. The spreads are very tight. There's not a lot of pain right now at Waha for the most part. We think that's going to get really difficult as we go into '24 until the next pipeline is built. So we do think we'll pick up more momentum, and we're going to push hard. And kind of similar to my comments around LNG, we hope to maybe get the FID on Warrior sometime maybe in the second quarter of next year.

所以我們就像我們正在進行的許多大型專案一樣，它們只是需要時間。我們會看到價差在幾天或幾週內略有擴大。點差非常小。現在瓦哈大部分時間都沒有太多痛苦。我們認為，進入 24 年，直到下一條管道建成之前，這將變得非常困難。因此，我們確實認為我們會獲得更多動力，並且我們將努力推動。與我對液化天然氣的評論類似，我們希望可能在明年第二季的某個時候獲得 Warrior 的最終投資決定。

Great. Super helpful. And maybe just touch on the M&A for the year with Crestwood and Lotus coming into the fold here. Can you just maybe talk about how some of these acquisitions have maybe perhaps help defer some capital? I know Crestwood has some Permian processing capacity. And I think you alluded to in the prepared remarks that some of that excess processing capacity might be able to defer a processing plant a little bit.

偉大的。超有幫助。也許只是談談今年的併購，Crestwood 和 Lotus 也加入其中。您能否談談其中一些收購可能如何幫助推遲一些資本？我知道克雷斯特伍德有一定的二疊紀加工能力。我認為您在準備好的發言中提到，一些過剩的加工能力可能會稍微推遲加工廠的建設。

So how should we think about processing capacity for '24 or '25? Do we need to see another new build come into next year? Or could we see some capital get deferred into the following year as it relates to maybe the crude side Lotus or Crestwood on the NGL processing side?

那我們該如何考慮「24」或「25」的處理能力呢？我們是否需要在明年看到另一個新建築的建成？或者我們會看到一些資本被推遲到下一年，因為它可能與 NGL 加工方面的原油方面 Lotus 或 Crestwood 有關？

Yes, this is Mackie again. Yes, we -- as you can understand, we haven't been able to really dig into the Crestwood assets yet. We don't close officially until Friday. But from a high level, we certainly recognize some capacity that's available really in all regions, both in the Bakken and the Powder as well as in the Delaware.

是的，這又是麥基。是的，正如你所理解的，我們還無法真正深入挖掘克雷斯特伍德的資產。我們要到週五才會正式關門。但從高水準來看，我們當然也意識到所有地區都具備一些能力，無論是巴肯州、波德州或德拉瓦州。

We are constantly evaluating when is the next time to kick off the next cryo to make sure we meet our obligations as we sign up producers. But clearly, we believe that this is going to give us some time to defer that decision. We were thinking we're going to make that decision kind of the first quarter of next year, whether we're going to start kick off another plant that's probably going to push it back at least 3 to 6 months. So we'll see kind of as we fully are able to analyze and look at these assets and see how they logistically blend in, but we're pretty confident, at the minimum, it's going to delay building a new trial at least some period of time.

我們不斷評估下一次啟動下一次冷凍的時間，以確保我們在與生產商簽約時履行我們的義務。但顯然，我們相信這會給我們一些時間來推遲這個決定。我們認為我們將在明年第一季做出決定，是否要開始啟動另一座工廠，這可能會將其推遲至少 3 到 6 個月。因此，我們將看到，我們完全能夠分析和查看這些資產，並了解它們如何在邏輯上融合在一起，但我們非常有信心，至少，它將至少推遲一段時間建立新的試驗的時間。

That question will be from Jean Salisbury of Bernstein.

這個問題將由伯恩斯坦的讓·索爾茲伯里提出。

There's a lot of new NGL pipes coming to the Permian in 2025. I think ET is actually the only main company not doing an expansion. How well positioned are Lone Star and West Texas gateway to weather that contractual duration-wise? And does it drive more interest in inorganic opportunities in the basin?

2025 年，二疊紀盆地將有大量新的 NGL 管道。我認為 ET 實際上是唯一沒有進行擴建的主要公司。孤星和西德克薩斯門戶在合約期限方面的定位如何？它是否會引起人們對該盆地無機機會的更多興趣？

Yes, Jean, this is Mackie again. We have noticed that. There's a lot of top lines announced here even in the last couple of days. But what we try to do as a partnership is not really worry about what others are announcing or what others are building. We kind of focus on what do we need to build to accommodate our customers and to meet the demand growth of those that we're working with.

是的，瓊，這又是麥基。我們已經注意到了這一點。即使在過去的幾天裡，這裡也宣布了許多重要內容。但作為合作夥伴，我們嘗試做的並不是真正擔心其他人宣布了什麼或其他人正在建立什麼。我們關注的是我們需要建立什麼來滿足我們的客戶並滿足我們正在合作的客戶的需求成長。

And we are very well positioned right now. We move about 1/3 of every barrel of NGL that's produced in the Permian Basin. We have the ability to move 100-plus thousand more barrels. We can add pumps and move probably in the neighborhood of 250,000 more barrels. So we've got some kind of drop powder or drive capacity, available capacity we'll be able to expand on. So I think any kind of considerations or determinations from us for probably a year or longer away even contemplating another pipeline, and we're positioned pretty well to move everything we that signed up in addition to more growth that we expect from our G&P business.

我們現在處於非常有利的位置。我們運送二疊紀盆地生產的每桶液化天然氣中約 1/3。我們有能力再運輸 10 萬多桶。我們可以添加泵並移動大約 250,000 個桶。因此，我們擁有某種落粉或驅動能力，我們將能夠擴展可用的能力。因此，我認為我們可能在一年或更長時間內做出任何考慮或決定，甚至考慮另一條管道，而且我們已經做好了充分準備，除了我們期望從G&P 業務中獲得更多增長之外，我們也可以轉移我們簽署的所有內容。

Great. That makes sense. To be clear, I'm certainly not pushing you to expand Lone Star. But that's super helpful. And for your Nederland NGL export expansion, I know that you're talking to a lot of ethane counterparties, but it seems like you haven't quite send the contracts yet. Is the right way to think about it that given how tight LPG export capacity is, it will probably start mostly as LPG. And then as your ethane contracts eventually get signed and kicked in, a greater share will become ethane.

偉大的。這就說得通了。要先明確的是，我當然不是在催促你們擴張 Lone Star。但這非常有幫助。至於你們的荷蘭液化天然氣出口擴張，我知道你們正在與許多乙烷交易對手進行談判，但你們似乎還沒有完全發送合約。考慮到液化石油氣出口能力的緊張，它可能主要以液化石油氣開始，這是正確的思考方式。然後，當乙烷合約最終簽署並生效時，更大的份額將變成乙烷。

Yes. I think I would answer it this way. We are in constant dialogue in negotiations across the board. We have probably at least 140,000 barrels of ethane customers that we're negotiating with right now, of which some prefer Marcus Hook on the Gulf Coast. We'll have the ability to kind of swing the volume between either one. But clearly, LPG is also in high demand.

是的。我想我會這樣回答。我們在全面談判中不斷對話。我們目前正在與至少 140,000 桶乙烷客戶進行談判，其中一些客戶更喜歡墨西哥灣沿岸的 Marcus Hook。我們將能夠在兩者之間切換音量。但顯然，液化石油氣的需求也很高。

And so we're -- there's not a shortage of international customers, and we're very excited. As we've said earlier, that we're not only very well positioned to meet that, but also very well positioned to meet the growth 2 years from now and beyond. So we do think space is going to get pretty tight. As you can see by our results, we're moving more volume. We're hitting records in almost every aspect of our NGL business, including our export. And we're seeing the margins widening. We think we'll see that over the next couple of years, and then we'll have new contracts lined up to come online in our Flexport.

所以我們——不缺乏國際客戶，我們非常興奮。正如我們之前所說，我們不僅有能力滿足這一目標，而且也有能力滿足兩年後及以後的成長。所以我們確實認為空間將會變得非常緊張。正如您從我們的結果中看到的，我們正在增加交易量。我們液化天然氣業務的幾乎每個方面都創下了記錄，包括我們的出口。我們看到利潤在擴大。我們認為我們將在未來幾年看到這一點，然後我們將在 Flexport 中上線新合約。

So we're pretty excited. We got in this export business a little later than most of our competitors. Certainly, the -- our biggest competitor, we've kind of have gone from nowhere to the leading exporter in the world. And we're proud of that, proud of our commercial team who's done all these deals, proud of our E&C team who build these assets so quickly, proud of our operating team led by Greg Mcilwain who runs these systems efficiently and reliably and more importantly, safely.

所以我們非常興奮。我們進入出口業務比大多數競爭對手晚一點。當然，我們最大的競爭對手，我們已經從默默無聞變成了世界領先的出口國。我們為此感到自豪，為完成所有這些交易的商業團隊感到自豪，為如此快速地構建這些資產的工程與建設團隊感到自豪，為由Greg Mcilwain 領導的運營團隊感到自豪，他們高效、可靠地運行這些系統，更重要的是，安全。

So we are very proud of our team and what we've done over the last 5 or 6 years to kind of start from nowhere to grow to where we're at today. And we have such a bright future on the assets that we are building now and the contracts that we have.

因此，我們對我們的團隊以及我們在過去五、六年中從無到有、發展到今天的成就感到非常自豪。我們現在正在建立的資產和我們擁有的合約有著光明的未來。

Next question will be from John Mackay of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將由高盛的約翰·麥凱提出。

Maybe just taking that last piece, I mean, talked about exports probably being the tightest part of the value chain for you right now, at least that's what we're picking up on. But I guess if you're looking across the kind of broader ET and kind of ET combined Crestwood footprint right now, where else are you seeing relative tightness and a call on the market you guys or others to add incremental capacity. Is it the Haynesville? Is it more on processing in the Permian? Just curious your thoughts overall if we're looking maybe beyond export.

我的意思是，也許就拿最後一篇文章來說，出口可能是您現在價值鏈中最緊密的部分，至少這是我們正在關注的內容。但我想，如果您現在正在查看更廣泛的 ET 和 ET 組合 Crestwood 的足跡，您還會在哪裡看到相對緊張的情況，並呼籲市場上的您或其他人增加增量產能。是海恩斯維爾嗎？更多的是二疊紀的加工嗎？如果我們的目標可能超出出口，只是想知道您的整體想法。

Yes. Let me just hit every region real quickly to kind of address, I hope your question. And so you start in the Northeast, we're positioned incredibly well on any kind of product growth up there. Whether it's ethane or LPG, we are kind of the only outlet with our Mariner franchise. So we call it drop powder or available capacity, whatever you want to call it. We are ready to capture any kind of growth up there.

是的。讓我快速回答每個地區的問題，希望您能提出問題。因此，從東北部開始，我們在該地區任何類型的產品成長方面都處於非常有利的位置。無論是乙烷還是液化石油氣，我們都是擁有 Mariner 特許經營權的唯一經銷商。所以我們稱之為滴粉或可用容量，無論你怎麼稱呼它。我們已準備好捕捉那裡的任何形式的增長。

And then as you come further south, we mentioned that we've got the ability to grow our transport volumes from the Permian Basin fairly significantly. We're expanding our Flexport fairly significantly. And we haven't really hit on this call, but there's a lot of gas in North Louisiana. Yes, it slowed down a little bit with gas prices here in the last 2 or 3 months. We think it's going to pick back up as prices have improved and will continue to improve. There's enormous reserves there.

然後，當您進一步向南時，我們提到我們有能力相當顯著地增加二疊紀盆地的運輸量。我們正在相當大地擴展我們的 Flexport。我們還沒有真正接到這個電話，但路易斯安那州北部有很多天然氣。是的，過去兩三個月這裡的汽油價格放緩。我們認為，隨著價格的改善，價格將會回升，並將繼續改善。那裡有巨大的儲備。

But on top of that, we have multiple intrastate and interstate pipelines that feed into East Texas and North Louisiana. And so we're very optimistic on our Gulf Run expansion. We can add compression and add a Bcf a day, but we think it's much more likely that we will sign up enough to loop our existing Gulf Run Zone 2 pipeline, especially aligned with LNG. We get that to FID, but we see that as certainly a huge growth area for us on a large pipeline project somewhere in the future along with what we've already talked about, our Warrior project and other areas. So depending on where the area is, we're either situated very well to grow with next no capital or we have such an excellent position to aggregate volumes to support a project like Gulf Run, an expansion project like Gulf Run.

但最重要的是，我們有多個州內和州際管道輸送到東德克薩斯州和北路易斯安那州。因此，我們對 Gulf Run 的擴張非常樂觀。我們可以增加壓縮並每天增加一個 Bcf，但我們認為更有可能的是，我們將簽署足夠的協議來循環我們現有的 Gulf Run Zone 2 管道，特別是與液化天然氣相關的管道。我們將其提交給最終投資決定，但我們認為，對於我們未來某個大型管道項目來說，這肯定是一個巨大的成長領域，以及我們已經討論過的勇士項目和其他領域。因此，根據所在地區的不同，我們要么處於非常有利的位置，無需資金即可實現增長，要么我們擁有如此優越的位置來聚集數量以支持像 Gulf Run 這樣的項目，像 Gulf Run 這樣的擴建項目。

That's clear. Maybe just following up. If we're thinking about '23 guidance overall, can you just maybe a quick breakdown of how much of the step-up was Crestwood versus kind of underlying business outperformance? And maybe if you're touching on the Gulf Run contributions, third quarter interstate was particularly strong. Gas overall was pretty strong. particularly for kind of a shoulder season. Is this a clean new run rate from here? Or are there any kind of one-offs in there?

很清楚。也許只是跟進。如果我們考慮 23 年的整體指導，您能否快速細分 Crestwood 的進步與基本業務表現的對比？也許如果您談到海灣運行的貢獻，第三季州際公路的貢獻尤其強勁。天然氣整體相當強勁。特別是對於平季。這是一個乾淨的新運行率嗎？或是其中有什麼一次性的事情嗎？

Yes. No, listen, I think the best way to look at that as far as the guidance goes and the split between the two is the guidance we had coming into this quarter that we provided in the second quarter was $13.1 billion to $13.4 billion, as you know. As you really looked at the new numbers we gave, you can probably say that the existing business was right at the top end of that range. And the rest of it would be Crestwood, but Crestwood would be net of transaction costs. So that's what we're currently expecting right now, still maybe some moving pieces as we get into the fourth quarter, but we feel pretty good about the 13.5% to 13.6%.

是的。不，聽著，我認為就指導意見而言，最好的方式是看待這個問題，而兩者之間的區別是我們在第二季度提供的本季度指導意見是131 億美元至134 億美元，正如你所見知道。當您真正查看我們提供的新數字時，您可能會說現有業務正好處於該範圍的頂端。其餘的將是 Crestwood，但 Crestwood 將扣除交易成本。這就是我們目前的預期，進入第四季後可能還會有一些變化，但我們對 13.5% 到 13.6% 的成長率感覺相當不錯。

Next question will be from Neel Mitra of Bank of America.

下一個問題將由美國銀行的 Neel Mitra 提出。

Firstly, it seems that Cushing inventories are extremely low right now. So I wanted to understand how your centurion flows and your overall Lotus acquisition was able to materialize on this dynamic in the third quarter?

首先，庫欣的庫存目前似乎極低。所以我想了解您的百夫長流動和您對蓮花的整體收購如何能夠在第三季度實現這一動態？

Yes, you bet. This is Mackie again. Yes, to do a shout-out to Chris Hefty and his team, and what they've done over the last 2 years has just been phenomenal, if you look at Enable and kind of what it's done over the last 1.5 years and the synergies that we found and the same with WEX. And a lot the same thing. We continue to look at significant commercial synergies around blending. As we have made an announcement, we are looping pipe so that we can move more volume to benefit when the spread blows out between Midland and Cushing.

是的，你敢打賭。這又是麥基。是的，要向 Chris Hefty 和他的團隊致敬，如果你看看 Enable 以及它在過去 1.5 年裡所做的事情以及協同效應，他們在過去 2 年裡所做的一切都是驚人的我們發現與WEX 相同。還有很多同樣的事情。我們繼續關注混合方面的重大商業協同效應。正如我們所宣布的，我們正在循環管道，以便當米德蘭和庫欣之間的價差擴大時，我們可以移動更多的交易量以受益。

So we're slowly positioning ourselves to become a much bigger player to be able to move volumes between the Cushing and Midland areas as well as, of course, to the Gulf Coast to our Houston and Nederland terminal. And I think likewise, we're going to see with Crestwood a lot of the same synergies. So we're pretty excited about our ability to buy these assets at the values we're able to buy at. They're great stand-alone companies and assets. And then once we blend them in, like your question with Lotus, we're finding significant synergies that we didn't recognize as we're pursuing these acquisitions.

因此，我們正在慢慢將自己定位為成為一個更大的參與者，能夠在庫欣和米德蘭地區之間運輸貨物，當然，也可以將貨物運送到墨西哥灣沿岸的休士頓和荷蘭碼頭。我認為同樣，我們將與 Crestwood 看到許多相同的協同效應。因此，我們對能夠以我們能夠購買的價格購買這些資產的能力感到非常興奮。它們是偉大的獨立公司和資產。一旦我們將它們融合在一起，就像你對蓮花的問題一樣，我們就會發現我們在進行這些收購時沒有意識到的顯著協同效應。

Got it. And then my second question, you've had a lot of success building Permian to Mexico natural gas pipelines. And it seems like the utilization on Comanche Trail and Trans-Pecos are picking up, and you have a competitor looking to build a pipeline to the border as well. With some of the West Coast LNG demand, it increased industrial demand in West Mexico. Are you seeing any appetite pipeline for expansions down to the border or possibly participating in a new project to move gas to Mexico?

知道了。然後是我的第二個問題，你們在建造二疊紀至墨西哥天然氣管道方面取得了巨大成功。科曼奇步道和跨佩科斯的利用率似乎正在上升，而且還有一個競爭對手也在尋求建造通往邊境的管道。隨著西海岸液化天然氣的部分需求，墨西哥西部的工業需求增加。您是否認為有任何向邊境擴張的興趣，或者是否有可能參與將天然氣輸送到墨西哥的新項目？

This is Mackie. No, we're not pursuing anything right now. As you mentioned, we are ramping up our 2 pipelines out in West Texas that deliver to Mexico. We still have quite a bit of capacity to fill up to fully utilize those pipelines. We have some pipelines in South Texas that we deliver either directly into Mexico or into other larger diameter pipelines. But no, we don't have anything on the drawing board. Yes, we are aware of some proposed pipelines out of the Waha area heading West, but we aren't involved in any of those projects at this time.

這是麥基。不，我們現在不追求任何東西。正如您所提到的，我們正在擴大西德克薩斯州的兩條通往墨西哥的管道。我們仍然有相當多的容量需要填充，以充分利用這些管道。我們在德州南部有一些管道，可以直接輸送到墨西哥或輸送到其他較大直徑的管道。但不，我們沒有任何計劃。是的，我們知道一些提議的管道從瓦哈地區向西延伸，但我們目前沒有參與任何這些項目。

Final question will come from Gabe Moreen of Mizuho.

最後一個問題將由瑞穗銀行的加布·莫林提出。

First, sort of the uplift in pricing on your interstate gas pipelines and storage. It seems like if I'm reading it right, some of the lot may be accelerating. Can you just talk about sort of how you feel your position rate case outcomes aside? And to what extent that's still going to be winded to your backs going forward in 2024.

首先，州際天然氣管道和儲存價格的上漲。看來如果我沒看錯的話，其中一些可能會加速。能談談您對職位率個案結果的看法嗎？到 2024 年，這在多大程度上仍然會困擾著你。

Gabe, this is Mackie, and I apologize. You're -- we started hearing about halfway through your question, sorry.

加布，我是麥基，我很抱歉。抱歉，我們從你的問題問到一半就開始聽到了。

Okay. Can you hear me now, Mackie?

好的。你現在聽得到我說話嗎，麥基？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Great. I was just going to say to what extent repricing your interstate gas pipeline and storage capacity is going to be winded your backs in 2024? It seems like some of that is accelerating as we progress through '23.

好的。偉大的。我只是想說，到 2024 年，州際天然氣管道和儲存能力的重新定價將會在多大程度上讓你感到沮喪？隨著 23 年的進展，其中一些似乎正在加速。

Yes. Years ago, this wasn't fun to talk about. It is now. When you look at the value, for example, on MEP or on Tiger or on Gulf Run or even on Sesh, we're seeing growing, growing demand on all of those assets, TW. I mean just pick an asset. And most of what we're doing right now is either at tariff or close to tariff. The demand is there. A lot of the gas throughout this country is trying to find its way to the Gulf Coast. We're very well positioned to benefit from that with all the pipelines I just mentioned in others.

是的。幾年前，談論這個並不有趣。就是現在。例如，當您查看 MEP、Tiger、Gulf Run 甚至 Sesh 的價值時，我們會看到所有這些資產 TW 的需求不斷增長。我的意思是只選擇一項資產。我們現在所做的大部分工作要么是關稅，要么接近關稅。需求就在那裡。這個國家的許多天然氣都在試圖找到通往墨西哥灣沿岸的道路。透過我剛才在其他人中提到的所有管道，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以從中受益。

So we don't really -- unlike years past, we might have had some concern with contracts. We're terminating of what we could do with that available capacity. I mean, Tiger is a great example. Tiger was about half empty with spreads down to $0.05 or $0.06, and now we're running it full at much bigger spread. And so we're pretty excited about any available capacity. Once it comes out in a contract, we think worst case will rollover it somewhere, if not higher rates, than we already are at unless we're already at tariff.

因此，與過去幾年不同，我們可能並不真正對合約有一些擔憂。我們將終止利用該可用容量進行的操作。我的意思是，老虎就是一個很好的例子。 Tiger 大約是半空的，價差降至 0.05 美元或 0.06 美元，現在我們以更大的價差運行它。因此，我們對任何可用容量都感到非常興奮。一旦合約中出現，我們認為最壞的情況將在某個地方展期，即使不是更高的利率，也會比我們已經達到的水平更高，除非我們已經達到關稅。

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Tom Long for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給湯姆·朗先生做總結發言。

Once again, I thank all of you for joining us today. We greatly appreciate all your support, and we look forward to talking to you in the near future.

我再次感謝大家今天加入我們。我們非常感謝您的支持，並期待在不久的將來與您交談。

Thank you. That concludes our conference today. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開連線。