康涅狄格電力 (ES) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Eversource Energy Q4 and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Nadia, and I'll be coordinating the call today. (Operator Instructions)

    大家好,歡迎來到 Eversource Energy 第 4 季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。我叫 Nadia,今天我將負責協調電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • I will now hand over to your host, Jeff Kotkin, Vice President of Investor Relations for Eversource Energy to begin. Jeff, please go ahead.

    我現在將交給您的東道主 Eversource Energy 投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Kotkin 開始。傑夫,請繼續。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Nadia, and we apologize for the delay in starting the call. We were having a problem with our webcast link, and it had to be reset. We couldn't just start the call with only the dial-ins working. So we appreciate your patience greatly, and we look forward to your questions after the intro remarks.

    謝謝你,納迪亞,我們對延遲開始通話表示歉意。我們的網絡廣播鏈接有問題,必須重新設置。我們不能只在撥入工作的情況下開始通話。因此,我們非常感謝您的耐心等待,我們期待您在介紹性發言後提出問題。

  • So let me start. Good morning. Thank you for joining us. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted yesterday on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These forecasts are set forth in the news release issued yesterday afternoon. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, and our Form 10-Q for the 3 months ended September 30, 2022 -- I'm sorry, the 10-K was the '21. Additionally, our explanation and how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q.

    那麼讓我開始吧。早上好。感謝您加入我們。在此次電話會議中,我們將參考昨天發佈在我們網站上的幻燈片。正如您在幻燈片 1 中看到的那樣,根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案安全港條款的定義,本次投資者電話會議期間所做的一些陳述可能具有前瞻性。這些前瞻性陳述是基於管理層當前的預期,並受到風險和不確定性的影響,這可能導致實際結果與預測和預測存在重大差異。這些預測載於昨天下午發布的新聞稿中。有關可能導致實際結果不同的各種因素的更多信息,請參閱我們截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告和截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日止三個月的 10-Q 表格 - - 對不起,10-K 是 21 年的。此外,我們的解釋以及我們如何和為何使用某些非 GAAP 措施以及這些措施如何與 GAAP 結果相協調都包含在我們的新聞稿和我們昨晚發布的幻燈片以及我們最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 中。

  • Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer and John Moreira, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today is Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller.

    今天發言的有我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Joe Nolan 和我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 John Moreira。今天也加入我們的是我們的副總裁兼財務總監 Jay Buth。

  • Now I will turn to Slide 4 and turn over the call to Joe.

    現在我將轉到幻燈片 4 並將電話轉給 Joe。

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Thank you, Jeff, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on this call this morning. We had a very strong 2022 operationally, financially in advancing the clean energy policies of the states we serve. As we look ahead to 2023, we consider ourselves to be extremely well positioned to deliver on our customers' expectations, whether it relates to providing them with safe and reliable service, helping communities address the impacts of climate change or standing ready and fully prepared to respond to emergencies. The work that thousands of Eversource employees undertook following a severe windstorm 2 days before Christmas last year, working in bitter temperatures up to 16 hours a day before and during the holiday to ensure our customers had power, exemplifies the selflessness of our 9,600 colleagues. We treasure the hundreds of appreciative comments we've received from our customers. On our ESG efforts, we published a new diversity, equity and inclusion report, and we are recognized as a leader in this area among the 1,000 largest U.S. corporations by, as you saw, a nation-leading shareholder advocacy, nonprofit focused on environmental and social corporate responsibility and values aligned investing. We are now completing a new initiative on equity training across the entire company. In November, we announced that we had committed to setting a science-based target, making us one of only a few U.S. electric or gas utilities to take that challenging step. We continue to receive very positive feedback from many of our investors on that commitment and believe it will become an increasingly differentiating factor for Eversource in both the U.S. and non-U.S. investment portfolios.

    謝謝杰夫,也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。在推進我們所服務的州的清潔能源政策方面,我們在 2022 年的運營和財務上表現非常強勁。展望 2023 年,我們認為自己完全有能力滿足客戶的期望,無論是為他們提供安全可靠的服務、幫助社區應對氣候變化的影響,還是隨時準備好並做好充分準備應對緊急情況。數千名 Eversource 員工在去年聖誕節前 2 天遭遇強風暴後開展的工作,在節前和節假日期間每天在嚴酷的溫度下工作長達 16 小時,以確保我們的客戶有電,這體現了我們 9,600 名同事的無私。我們珍惜從客戶那裡收到的數百條讚賞的評論。在我們的 ESG 努力中,我們發布了一份新的多元化、公平和包容性報告,正如您所看到的,我們被美國 1,000 家最大的公司公認為該領域的領導者,這是一家全國領先的股東倡導組織,專注於環境和社會企業責任和價值觀一致的投資。我們現在正在整個公司完成一項新的股權培訓計劃。 11 月,我們宣布我們已承諾設定一個以科學為基礎的目標,這使我們成為少數幾個邁出這一具有挑戰性步驟的美國電力或天然氣公用事業公司之一。我們繼續收到許多投資者對這一承諾的非常積極的反饋,並相信這將成為 Eversource 在美國和非美國投資組合中越來越與眾不同的因素。

  • Slide 5 illustrates some of our very -- our key operational metrics, starting with 2 key gauges of electric service reliability. Our customers' average number of months between interruptions remained in the highest decile of the industry in our speed of restoration, when outages did occur, was in the top quartile. Our key safety metrics also remained strong. In terms of our 2022 financial performance, we continue to grow our non-GAAP earnings and dividend by approximately 6%, something that we have done consistently since Eversource was formed nearly 11 years ago. As shown on Slide 6, our Board approved an additional 6% increase in our quarterly dividend earlier this month. John will discuss some of the factors that we expect will move earnings per share growth over the next 5 years to solidly in the upper half of our long-term 5% to 7% range. While our longer-term total shareholder return compares favorably with our peers, our 2022 return was disappointing. We understand that much of that is related to the uncertainty over our offshore wind investments. We expect to resolve that uncertainty in the coming months as our strategic review progresses. There is continued interest in both our 3 offshore wind projects in the nearly 175,000 acres of uncommitted lease areas that are part of our 50-50 joint venture with Ørsted. The process continues to move forward and is progressing through extensive due diligence. We expect an announcement concerning the outcome of the strategic review in the second quarter of this year. In the meantime, our work on the 3 projects is moving ahead.

    幻燈片 5 說明了我們的一些非常 - 我們的關鍵運營指標,從電力服務可靠性的 2 個關鍵指標開始。我們客戶的平均中斷間隔月數在我們的恢復速度中保持在行業最高十分之一,當確實發生中斷時,處於前四分之一。我們的關鍵安全指標也依然強勁。就我們 2022 年的財務業績而言,我們的非 GAAP 收益和股息繼續增長約 6%,這是自 Eversource 成立近 11 年來我們一直在做的事情。如幻燈片 6 所示,我們的董事會本月早些時候批准將季度股息額外增加 6%。約翰將討論我們預計未來 5 年每股收益增長將穩定在我們長期 5% 至 7% 範圍的上半部分的一些因素。雖然我們的長期股東總回報優於同行,但我們 2022 年的回報令人失望。我們知道,這在很大程度上與我們海上風電投資的不確定性有關。隨著我們的戰略審查取得進展,我們希望在未來幾個月內解決這種不確定性。在我們與 Ørsted 的 50-50 合資企業的近 175,000 英畝未承諾租賃區域中,我們的 3 個海上風電項目一直受到關注。該過程繼續向前推進,並通過廣泛的盡職調查取得進展。我們預計將在今年第二季度發布有關戰略審查結果的公告。與此同時,我們在這三個項目上的工作正在推進。

  • Slide 7 provides a quick overview of the significant progress in recent months. As you know, construction of our first project, South Fork Wind commenced a year ago. Installation of the onshore conduit system, including cable vaults and town roads and along the Long Island railroad, is now complete, as is the installation of the sea to shore conduit that will hold the transmission cable as it transitions to land. Installation of onshore cable is now underway and construction of our new onshore substation is on track to be completed this summer. Installation of the South Fork subsea transmission cable will begin later this quarter, and installation of the foundations, wind turbines and offshore substation will begin this summer off the coast of Massachusetts. We expect that South Fork will be fully operational by the end of the year.

    幻燈片 7 簡要概述了最近幾個月取得的重大進展。如您所知,我們的第一個項目 South Fork Wind 於一年前開始建設。陸上管道系統(包括電纜拱頂和城鎮道路以及長島鐵路沿線)的安裝現已完成,海到岸管道的安裝也已完成,該管道將在傳輸電纜過渡到陸地時保持傳輸電纜。陸上電纜的安裝正在進行中,我們新陸上變電站的建設有望在今年夏天完工。 South Fork 海底傳輸電纜的安裝將於本季度晚些時候開始,基礎、風力渦輪機和海上變電站的安裝將於今年夏天在馬薩諸塞州海岸開始。我們預計 South Fork 將在今年年底全面投入運營。

  • Our 2 larger offshore wind projects, Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind, continue to advance through citing and permitting, and we expect to commence construction of both projects in the second half of this year. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, or BOEM, issued a draft environmental impact statement for the 704-megawatt Revolution Wind project in September. We expect a final EIS in the second quarter of 2023 and to have all permits in hand in the second half of 2023. We continue to target a 2025 in-service date. We had 2 major developments late last year for Sunrise Wind, our largest offshore wind project. The project received a key New York Public Service Commission permit and BOEM published a draft EIS for the project. As of the end of 2022, we had invested $1.95 billion in offshore wind. We made significant progress late last year procuring equipment and services and have approximately 90% of costs locked in, up from 82% as of September 30.

    我們的 2 個較大的海上風電項目 Revolution Wind 和 Sunrise Wind 通過引用和許可繼續推進,我們預計這兩個項目將於今年下半年開始建設。海洋能源管理局 (BOEM) 於 9 月發布了 704 兆瓦 Revolution Wind 項目的環境影響報告草案。我們預計最終的 EIS 將在 2023 年第二季度完成,並在 2023 年下半年獲得所有許可證。我們繼續以 2025 年的投產日期為目標。去年底,我們為我們最大的海上風電項目 Sunrise Wind 進行了兩項重大開發。該項目獲得了紐約公共服務委員會的重要許可,BOEM 發布了該項目的 EIS 草案。截至 2022 年底,我們已向海上風電投資 19.5 億美元。去年年底,我們在採購設備和服務方面取得了重大進展,並鎖定了大約 90% 的成本,高於 9 月 30 日的 82%。

  • On one of the slides in our appendix, you can see our updated total cost estimates for the 3 projects. The range is somewhat higher and narrower than it was a year ago. This is due to the fact that we have locked in much higher percentage of the cost, and that's some of the now locked-in costs, especially those related to foundation, transportation and installation are higher than we had estimated earlier. I should reemphasize that we consider offshore wind to be cost-effective source of significant clean energy supplies for the Northeast. We expect our electric utilities to build much of the FERC-regulated onshore transmission infrastructure needed to connect the offshore generation to load regardless of the outcome of our strategic review. Those investments will be closely aligned with our commitment to be a leading catalyst for clean energy development in our region. In its one of the many ways we are helping the region decarbonize, and we have seen very significant progress on a number of our Massachusetts initiatives over the past year.

    在我們附錄中的一張幻燈片上,您可以看到我們對這 3 個項目的更新總成本估算。與一年前相比,該範圍有所上升和縮小。這是因為我們鎖定了更高比例的成本,這是現在鎖定的一些成本,尤其是與基礎、運輸和安裝相關的成本高於我們之前的估計。我應該再次強調,我們認為海上風能是東北地區重要清潔能源供應的具有成本效益的來源。無論我們的戰略審查結果如何,我們都希望我們的電力公司建造大部分 FERC 監管的陸上輸電基礎設施,以連接海上發電和負荷。這些投資將與我們成為本地區清潔能源發展領先催化劑的承諾密切相關。這是我們幫助該地區脫碳的眾多方式之一,我們在過去一年中看到我們在馬薩諸塞州的許多舉措取得了非常重大的進展。

  • Turning to Slide 8. On December 30, the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities approved the first of 6 proposals to unlock third-party solar generation that is currently stalled in the interconnection queue as a result of inadequate transmission and distribution capacity. If all 6 proposals approved, a total of 1,000 megawatts could ultimately be built and connected. As you can see on Slide 9, the first approved project is Marion Fairhaven. Commission proceedings are active for the other 5 proposals, and we expect deep new decisions on them this year. Our proposed investment in these 6 clusters would be approximately $980 million, of which about $310 million would be reimbursed over 15 to 20 years by solar developers as they fully subscribe to the unlock hosting capacity.

    轉到幻燈片 8。12 月 30 日,馬薩諸塞州公用事業部批准了解鎖第三方太陽能發電的 6 項提案中的第一項,該提案目前由於輸配電容量不足而停滯在互連隊列中。如果所有 6 個提案都獲得批准,最終可以建造和連接總計 1,000 兆瓦的電力。正如您在幻燈片 9 中所見,第一個獲批的項目是 Marion Fairhaven。其他 5 項提案的委員會程序正在進行中,我們預計今年將對它們做出深入的新決定。我們對這 6 個集群的擬議投資約為 9.8 億美元,其中約 3.1 億美元將在 15 至 20 年內由太陽能開發商償還,因為他們完全訂閱了解鎖託管容量。

  • Also late last year, as shown on Slide 10, the DPU approved the implementation of AMI with a new customer information system for our nearly 1.5 million electric customers in Massachusetts. The DPU also approved our proposed continued investment in grid modernization. Today, these investments will enable customers to better manage their usage and provide us with significantly improved visibility into power flows and conditions on our electric distribution system. This will be critical for us as more distributed energy resources are connected to our system and as more of the state's space heating and transportation is electrified. We expect the new customer information system to be installed primarily over the next 2 years with meter installation in 2025 through 2027 time period. We hope that Connecticut regulators will conclude their AMI review this year and approve its rollout to 1.3 million of the state's electric customers. Aside from these projects, we have many other initiatives in Massachusetts. In December, the DPU authorized a 4-year plan for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, that is profiled on Slide 11.

    同樣在去年年底,如幻燈片 10 所示,DPU 批准為我們在馬薩諸塞州的近 150 萬電力客戶實施 AMI 和新的客戶信息系統。 DPU 還批准了我們提議的對電網現代化的持續投資。今天,這些投資將使客戶能夠更好地管理他們的使用,並為我們提供顯著改善的電力流動和配電系統狀況的可見性。隨著越來越多的分佈式能源連接到我們的系統,以及越來越多的州空間供暖和交通電氣化,這對我們來說至關重要。我們預計新的客戶信息系統將主要在未來 2 年內安裝,並在 2025 年至 2027 年期間安裝儀表。我們希望康涅狄格州的監管機構能夠在今年結束他們的 AMI 審查,並批准向該州 130 萬電力客戶推出。除了這些項目,我們在馬薩諸塞州還有許多其他舉措。 12 月,DPU 批准了電動汽車充電基礎設施的 4 年計劃,幻燈片 11 對此進行了介紹。

  • On Slide 12, we described 3 other initiatives, including a 38-megawatt hour battery storage facility that went online in Province Town on Cape Cod last year and can supply up to 11,000 customers this time of year with power, should an outage occur on a principal distribution fee disturbing the Outer Cape. The slide also provides you with the status of our highly innovative network geothermal project in Framingham, Massachusetts, which is now 90% designed, with construction to start this spring.

    在幻燈片 12 中,我們描述了其他 3 項舉措,包括去年在科德角 Province Town 上線的 38 兆瓦時電池存儲設施,每年這個時候可以為多達 11,000 名客戶供電,如果停電本金分配費擾亂了外角。該幻燈片還向您介紹了我們在馬薩諸塞州弗雷明漢的高度創新網絡地熱項目的狀態,該項目現已完成 90% 的設計,將於今年春天開始施工。

  • Additionally, we have 3 proposals into the Department of Public Utilities to expand our solar generation with an additional focus on storage and equity justice communities. We are very excited about all of these proposals as they help Massachusetts to achieve its very aggressive clean energy agenda and keep our region at the forefront of innovative solutions to the challenges of climate change. We hope that Connecticut and New Hampshire will embrace some of these clean energy programs and our involvement in delivering solutions. In Connecticut, there are clear signals from the Lamont administration in the Governance Department of Energy and Environmental Protection that they are looking to promote significant investment in clean energy initiatives with both Federal and utility support. To this end, we have 3 grid scale battery storage projects pending before Connecticut regulators that would improve grid reliability and enable integration of clean energy resources. These proposed investments, which are not in our current capital forecast, were enabled by recent state legislation. We hope that workable regulatory frameworks will be advanced to support such investments.

    此外,我們向公用事業部提出了 3 項提案,以擴大我們的太陽能發電,並額外關注存儲和公平正義社區。我們對所有這些提案感到非常興奮,因為它們幫助馬薩諸塞州實現其非常積極的清潔能源議程,並使我們的地區始終處於應對氣候變化挑戰的創新解決方案的前沿。我們希望康涅狄格州和新罕布什爾州將接受其中一些清潔能源計劃,並讓我們參與提供解決方案。在康涅狄格州,能源和環境保護管理部門的拉蒙特政府發出了明確的信號,表明他們希望在聯邦和公用事業的支持下促進對清潔能源計劃的重大投資。為此,我們有 3 個電網規模的電池存儲項目正在等待康涅狄格州監管機構審理,這些項目將提高電網可靠性並實現清潔能源資源的整合。這些擬議的投資不在我們當前的資本預測中,而是通過最近的州立法實現的。我們希望能夠推進可行的監管框架以支持此類投資。

  • Finally, I want to address power supplies in energy bills this winter. As you know, we were quite concerned entering this winter about the impact of higher energy prices in New England as well as uncertain supplies of natural gas, LNG and oil for the region's generation. In fact, I wrote to President Biden before the heating season commenced, asking that his administration invoked certain emergency measures to ensure that we have sufficient resources this winter. Fortunately, the mild temperatures this winter have reduced customers' energy consumption and tempered the impact on bills. They also have contributed to a sharp reduction in natural gas prices, which has started to lower natural gas bills for some customers. New Hampshire electric customers are seeing a rate decline this month. For most of our electric customers, lower power supply costs will start to be reflected in bills in July.

    最後,我想在今年冬天解決能源賬單中的電源問題。如您所知,進入今年冬天,我們非常擔心新英格蘭能源價格上漲的影響,以及該地區發電的天然氣、液化天然氣和石油供應的不確定性。事實上,我在采暖季開始前寫信給拜登總統,要求他的政府採取某些緊急措施,以確保我們今年冬天有足夠的資源。幸運的是,今年冬天溫和的氣溫降低了客戶的能源消耗並緩和了對賬單的影響。它們還促成了天然氣價格的急劇下降,這已開始降低一些客戶的天然氣費用。新罕布什爾州的電力客戶本月看到費率下降。對於我們的大多數電力客戶來說,較低的供電成本將在 7 月份開始反映在賬單中。

  • Thanks again for your time. I will now turn the call over to John.

    感謝你的寶貴時間。我現在將電話轉給約翰。

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I will be covering our 2022 results, our 2023 earnings guidance, our updated 5-year regulated investment capital plan and long-term outlook and give you an update on some current regulatory proceedings.

    謝謝你,喬,大家早上好。今天上午,我將介紹我們 2022 年的業績、2023 年的收益指引、我們更新的 5 年監管投資資本計劃和長期展望,並向您介紹一些當前監管程序的最新情況。

  • Let me start with our 2022 results on Slide 14. Our GAAP earnings for 2022 were $4.05 per share compared with $3.54 per share in 2021. In the fourth quarter of 2022, GAAP earnings were $0.92 per share compared with GAAP earnings of $0.89 per share in the fourth quarter of 2021. Results for both 2022 and 2021 include transition and transaction-related costs primarily associated with integration of Eversource Gas Company of Massachusetts. Also, full year 2021 GAAP results included charges related to the CL&P settlement agreement. Excluding those nonrecurring charges, we earned $4.09 per share in 2022, up 6% from $3.86 that we earned in 2021. For the fourth quarter, excluding these charges, we earned $0.92 per share in 2022 compared with earnings of $0.91 per share in 2021. To break down our earnings by segments, electric transmission earned $1.72 per share for the full year 2022 compared with earnings of $1.58 per share in 2021. Higher earnings resulted from continued investment in our transmission system. We invested just over $1.2 billion in our transmission facility in compared with $1.1 billion in 2021. Current -- mostly replace an agent equipment and improving reliability and resiliency for the region. Our electric distribution segment earned $1.71 per share in 2022 compared with $1.61 per share in 2021. Excluding the Connecticut settlement-related charges, higher revenues and lower pension expense were partially offset by higher O&M, depreciation, property taxes and interest costs. Fourth quarter 2022 results also reflect a $10 million contribution we are making to help some of our customers pay the significantly higher energy bills we have seen this winter. Our higher distribution expense primarily stemmed from our ongoing investments in the distribution system to improve service and reliability for our customers.

    讓我從幻燈片 14 上的 2022 年業績開始。我們 2022 年的 GAAP 收益為每股 4.05 美元,而 2021 年為每股 3.54 美元。2022 年第四季度,GAAP 收益為每股 0.92 美元,而 2022 年的 GAAP 收益為每股 0.89 美元。 2021 年第四季度。2022 年和 2021 年的業績包括主要與馬薩諸塞州 Eversource 天然氣公司整合相關的過渡和交易相關成本。此外,2021 年全年 GAAP 業績包括與 CL&P 和解協議相關的費用。不包括這些非經常性費用,我們在 2022 年的每股收益為 4.09 美元,比 2021 年的每股收益 3.86 美元增長了 6%。在第四季度,不包括這些費用,我們在 2022 年的每股收益為 0.92 美元,而 2021 年的每股收益為 0.91 美元。為了按部門細分我們的收益,電力傳輸在 2022 年全年的每股收益為 1.72 美元,而 2021 年的每股收益為 1.58 美元。更高的收益來自於我們對輸電系統的持續投資。與 2021 年的 11 億美元相比,我們在輸電設施上的投資剛剛超過 12 億美元。目前——主要是更換代理設備並提高該地區的可靠性和彈性。我們的配電部門在 2022 年的每股收益為 1.71 美元,而 2021 年為每股收益 1.61 美元。不包括與康涅狄格州結算相關的費用,更高的收入和更低的養老金支出被更高的 O&M、折舊、財產稅和利息成本部分抵消。 2022 年第四季度的業績還反映了我們為幫助我們的一些客戶支付我們在今年冬天看到的高得多的能源賬單而做出的 1000 萬美元捐款。我們較高的分銷費用主要源於我們對分銷系統的持續投資,以改善我們客戶的服務和可靠性。

  • We invested about $1.35 billion in our electric distribution system in 2022, up from $1.24 billion in 2021. The higher O&M was driven in part by higher storm costs in 2022. Non-deferred storm expense cost us about $0.05 per share, more in 2022 than it did in 2021. Our natural gas distribution segment earned $0.67 per share in 2022 compared with earnings of $0.59 per share in 2021. Higher revenues and lower pension expense were partially offset by higher O&M, property taxes, interest and depreciation expense, much of it driven by our continued investment to improve the safety, reliability and resiliency of our natural gas distribution system. Our Water Distribution System segment earned $0.11 per share in both 2022 and 2021. Excluding the transition and transaction-related charges, Eversource parent and other companies lost $0.12 per share in 2022 compared with a loss of $0.03 per share in 2021. This change was due largely to higher interest expense, particularly in the second quarter of 2022 and higher -- and our higher effective income tax rate. Overall, as Joe covered in his remarks, we are very pleased with our 2022 performance as we successfully overcame many challenges and delivered very positive results for our customers and all of our stakeholders.

    2022 年,我們在配電系統上的投資約為 13.5 億美元,高於 2021 年的 12.4 億美元。O&M 增加的部分原因是 2022 年風暴成本增加。非遞延風暴費用使我們每股損失約 0.05 美元,2022 年比它在 2021 年做到了。我們的天然氣分銷部門在 2022 年的每股收益為 0.67 美元,而 2021 年的每股收益為 0.59 美元。更高的收入和更低的養老金支出被更高的 O&M、財產稅、利息和折舊費用部分抵消,其中大部分受我們持續投資以提高天然氣配送系統的安全性、可靠性和彈性的推動。我們的配水系統部門在 2022 年和 2021 年每股收益為 0.11 美元。不計入過渡和交易相關費用,Eversource 母公司和其他公司在 2022 年每股虧損 0.12 美元,而 2021 年每股虧損 0.03 美元。這一變化是由於主要是因為更高的利息支出,特別是在 2022 年第二季度及更高——以及我們更高的有效所得稅率。總的來說,正如 Joe 在他的講話中所說,我們對 2022 年的表現感到非常滿意,因為我們成功克服了許多挑戰,並為我們的客戶和所有利益相關者帶來了非常積極的成果。

  • From 2022 results, I will turn to 2023 guidance on Slide 15. We are projecting non-GAAP earnings of between $4.25 and $4.43 per share this year compared with $4.09 per share we earned in 2022. The slide shows the factors that we expect to positively and negatively impact earnings in 2023 compared with 2022. One item benefiting earnings is our ongoing program to upgrade our electric transmission system where we expect to invest approximately $1.2 billion again in 2023. I will discuss the principal drivers behind that investment and how it will benefit our customers in a moment when I discuss our long-term capital plan. We are also -- we also project higher revenues in our distribution companies as we continue to upgrade and expand our distribution systems. Those higher revenues are due primarily to rate adjustments at NSTAR Gas, EGMA and PSNH that were -- that went effective on November 1, 2022, and at NSTAR Electric just beginning of last month. We expect that they will be partially offset by anticipated increases in depreciation and property taxes. We expect enhanced returns in 2023 on an investment in a fund that we have owned related to various clean energy facilities. Those facilities have significantly increased in value in recent years and have benefited our results for several years and now include in 2022. Interest expense will continue to be a headwind at Eversource parent. It will also be a headwind at our distribution segments. While the portion of interest expense allocated to transmission is tracked, the distribution portion is [not] and will weigh on earnings. Lower pension expense was an earnings tailwind for us in 2022, primarily due to the extremely strong asset returns that we performed in 2021. In 2023, we expect pension costs to be a slight headwind to earnings of approximately 4% -- $0.04 for the year as compared to 2022.

    從 2022 年的結果來看,我將轉向幻燈片 15 上的 2023 年指導。我們預計今年的非 GAAP 每股收益將在 4.25 美元至 4.43 美元之間,而 2022 年的每股收益為 4.09 美元。幻燈片顯示了我們預計將產生積極影響的因素與 2022 年相比,對 2023 年的收益產生負面影響。有利於收益的項目之一是我們正在進行的電力傳輸系統升級計劃,我們預計在 2023 年將再次投資約 12 億美元。我將討論該投資背後的主要驅動因素以及它將如何受益當我討論我們的長期資本計劃時,我們的客戶。我們也是 - 隨著我們繼續升級和擴展我們的分銷系統,我們還預計我們的分銷公司的收入會更高。這些較高的收入主要是由於 NSTAR Gas、EGMA 和 PSNH 的費率調整——這些調整於 2022 年 11 月 1 日生效,而 NSTAR Electric 則於上月初生效。我們預計它們將被折舊和財產稅的預期增加部分抵消。我們預計 2023 年投資於我們擁有的與各種清潔能源設施相關的基金將獲得更高的回報。近年來,這些設施的價值顯著增加,多年來使我們的業績受益,現在包括 2022 年。利息支出將繼續成為 Eversource 母公司的不利因素。這也將成為我們分銷部門的不利因素。雖然跟踪了分配給傳輸的利息費用部分,但分配部分 [not] 並將對收益產生壓力。較低的養老金支出對我們 2022 年的收益有利,這主要是由於我們在 2021 年實現了極其強勁的資產回報。到 2023 年,我們預計養老金成本將對收益產生輕微的不利影響,約為 4%——全年 0.04 美元與 2022 年相比。

  • Here are some reasons why -- behind this modest impact: first, a significant portion of our pension cost or pension benefit is capitalized into our capital projects; secondly, pension expense or pension cost related to our Transmission segment and to our Massachusetts Electric and Natural Gas Distribution segments are fully tracked; third, a higher discount rate reduces the impact of the amortization of prior year accumulated actuarial losses; and lastly, the higher discount rate means that our pension plan remains fully funded, and we do not anticipate making any contributions in 2023.

    以下是造成這種輕微影響的一些原因:首先,我們的養老金成本或養老金福利的很大一部分被資本化到我們的資本項目中;其次,與我們的傳輸部門以及我們的馬薩諸塞州電力和天然氣分銷部門相關的養老金費用或養老金成本得到全面跟踪;第三,較高的貼現率降低了上年累計精算損失攤銷的影響;最後,較高的貼現率意味著我們的養老金計劃資金充足,我們預計 2023 年不會做出任何貢獻。

  • From 2023 earnings expectation, I'm going to turn to Slide 16 and cover our 5-year plan to invest approximately $21.5 billion in our regulated electric, natural gas and water distribution businesses to continue to provide customers with safe and reliable service, to address ongoing load growth in certain areas of our service territory, and to help our states meet their decarbonization goals. The increased investment is focused primarily within our electric transmission and distribution segments. Much of the increase in the transmission capital projection is due to increased investments in the replacement of older equipment in our substations, overhead infrastructure and underground cables. This investment continues to make our transmission system more reliable even during extreme weather events. Increased storm hardening and system resiliency has resulted in no transmission-related outages through the last several severe storm events. We also are including the early years of a major new project to build an underground substation in Cambridge, Massachusetts, where the load growth continues to accelerate. A side-in application for this project was filed about a year ago.

    從 2023 年的盈利預期開始,我將轉向幻燈片 16,介紹我們的 5 年計劃,即在我們受監管的電力、天然氣和水分配業務中投資約 215 億美元,以繼續為客戶提供安全可靠的服務,以解決我們服務範圍內某些地區的持續負荷增長,並幫助我們的州實現其脫碳目標。增加的投資主要集中在我們的輸電和配電領域。輸電資本預測的大部分增長是由於在我們的變電站、架空基礎設施和地下電纜中更換舊設備的投資增加。這項投資繼續使我們的傳輸系統即使在極端天氣事件中也更加可靠。在過去的幾次嚴重風暴事件中,風暴強化和系統彈性的增強導致沒有與傳輸相關的中斷。我們還包括在馬薩諸塞州劍橋市建設地下變電站的一個重大新項目的早期階段,那裡的負荷增長持續加速。大約一年前提交了該項目的側入申請。

  • We are incorporating significant additional transmission investment in the physical security of our major substations and a total of about $450 million for transmission investments in the distributed energy and offshore wind projects Joe mentioned earlier. On the electric distribution side, our updated forecast now reflects the inclusion of AMI in Massachusetts and the completion of our proposed distributed energy projects also in Massachusetts. Earlier, Joe mentioned that the first cluster of these distributed energy projects have been approved and that the hearings are ongoing for the remaining 5. Our forecast also reflects the Massachusetts DPUs recent approval of our multiyear grid modernization and electric vehicle charging program.

    我們正在對主要變電站的物理安全進行大量額外的輸電投資,並為喬前面提到的分佈式能源和海上風電項目的輸電投資總計約 4.5 億美元。在配電方面,我們更新的預測現在反映了馬薩諸塞州 AMI 的納入以及我們提議的分佈式能源項目也在馬薩諸塞州的完成。早些時候,Joe 提到這些分佈式能源項目的第一個集群已經獲得批准,其餘 5 個項目的聽證會正在進行中。我們的預測還反映了馬薩諸塞州 DPU 最近批准了我們的多年電網現代化和電動汽車充電計劃。

  • Moving on to the natural gas side. Our increased investment is primarily related to increased regulations around natural gas companies construction activities that have evolved since the Merrimack Valley incident several years ago. We've also increased the number of projects to harden our system against flooding and added protection on our low-pressure systems. In the Water segment, our updated 5-year capital investment forecast of approximately $1 billion is more than 10% above the previous forecast, primarily reflecting the addition of Torrington Water, the acquisition that we completed last year, and the additional water treatment facility investments. It also includes about $70 million of per year to replace nearly 25 miles annually of old water means. Aquarion has more than doubled the scope of this water main investment program since being acquired by Eversource.

    轉向天然氣方面。我們增加的投資主要與自幾年前 Merrimack Valley 事件以來演變而來的圍繞天然氣公司建設活動的監管增加有關。我們還增加了項目數量,以加固我們的系統以防止洪水氾濫,並增加了對低壓系統的保護。在水務領域,我們更新後的 5 年資本投資預測約為 10 億美元,比之前的預測高出 10% 以上,主要反映了 Torrington Water 的加入、我們去年完成的收購以及額外的水處理設施投資.它還包括每年約 7000 萬美元,用於更換每年近 25 英里的舊水路。自從被 Eversource 收購以來,Aquarion 已經將這個供水幹管投資項目的範圍擴大了一倍以上。

  • Moving on to Slide 17, which compares year-by-year investment levels in the years 2023 through 2026. They totaled approximately $3.3 billion. This is consistent with the discussions we've been having with investors since last May when we indicated that the increased investment requirements in our regulated infrastructure would likely offset 2026 earnings impact of divesting our offshore wind investments, if that is ultimately the outcome of our strategic review.

    轉到幻燈片 17,它比較了 2023 年到 2026 年的逐年投資水平。總計約為 33 億美元。這與我們自去年 5 月以來與投資者進行的討論是一致的,當時我們表示,如果這最終是我們戰略的結果,我們受監管基礎設施的投資要求增加可能會抵消剝離海上風電投資對 2026 年收益的影響。審查。

  • Slide 18 shows that some major potential initiatives remain outside of our investment plan. Connecticut regulators continue to review our proposed AMI program. So that investment of approximately $475 million remains outside of our plan as are some potential related storage projects also in Connecticut. Our transmission system on Cape Cod could interconnect another 1,200 megawatts of offshore wind in addition to Vineyard Wind and Park City Wind. As such, interconnections are now under technical review by the ISO New England, but we have not reflected any potential amount in our plan. In addition, we've not reflected potential transmission projects that likely will be needed to move significant sources of offshore wind generation to load centers. We've also now reflected potential clean energy alternatives, we are beginning to explore as alternatives to natural gas.

    幻燈片 18 顯示,一些主要的潛在舉措仍在我們的投資計劃之外。康涅狄格監管機構繼續審查我們提議的 AMI 計劃。因此,大約 4.75 億美元的投資仍然在我們的計劃之外,康涅狄格州也有一些潛在的相關存儲項目。除了 Vineyard Wind 和 Park City Wind,我們在科德角的輸電系統還可以互連另外 1,200 兆瓦的海上風電。因此,互連現在正在接受 ISO New England 的技術審查,但我們沒有在我們的計劃中反映任何潛在數量。此外,我們還沒有反映可能需要將重要的海上風力發電來源轉移到負荷中心的潛在輸電項目。我們現在也反映了潛在的清潔能源替代品,我們開始探索作為天然氣的替代品。

  • As you can see on Slide 19, the customer-focused core business investments that are included in our capital forecast would result in a 7.5% rate base CAGR through 2027. Supported by those investments, we have maintained our EPS rate of -- growth rate of 5% to 7%, and believe we will be solidly in the upper half through the forecast period as illustrated on Slide 21. In addition to our earnings growth, we are enhancing our internally generated cash. Last year, cash flows from operations totaled just over $2.4 billion and that is compared with slightly under $2 billion in 2021. And the 2022 figure included a few cash outflows we do not expect to occur in 2023. As such as -- such as about $80 million of the pension contributions that we made in 2022 and more than $70 million of customer bill credits related to the CL&P 2021 rate settlement agreement and higher-than-average storm costs. We expect that the combination of enhancing credit metrics, progress on our strategic review and equity issuance plans will allow us to maintain or in the case of S&P, improve our current ratings. Those strong ratings provide significant benefits to customers by allowing us to borrow at some of the lowest rates in the industry. We also expect an increased level of storm cost recovery compared to 2022 as part of the NSTAR Electric rate decision. Maintaining those levels will require us to regularly infuse equity from our parent company into our regulated businesses.

    正如您在幻燈片 19 中看到的那樣,我們的資本預測中包含的以客戶為中心的核心業務投資將導致到 2027 年的複合年增長率為 7.5%。在這些投資的支持下,我們保持了 EPS 增長率——增長率5% 至 7%,並相信我們將在預測期內穩定在上半部分,如幻燈片 21 所示。除了我們的收益增長外,我們還在增加內部產生的現金。去年,運營產生的現金流量總額剛剛超過 24 億美元,而 2021 年則略低於 20 億美元。2022 年的數字包括一些我們預計不會在 2023 年發生的現金流出。例如——例如大約我們在 2022 年繳納的 8000 萬美元養老金和超過 7000 萬美元的客戶賬單貸記與 CL&P 2021 費率結算協議和高於平均水平的風暴成本相關。我們預計,信用指標的提升、我們戰略審查的進展和股票發行計劃的結合將使我們能夠維持或就標準普爾而言,提高我們目前的評級。這些強大的評級使我們能夠以業內最低的利率借款,從而為客戶帶來巨大利益。作為 NSTAR Electric 費率決定的一部分,我們還預計與 2022 年相比,風暴成本回收水平會有所提高。維持這些水平將需要我們定期將母公司的股權注入我們受監管的業務。

  • Slide 21 illustrates the sources of that funding. In addition to improving cash flows, as I mentioned -- previously mentioned, we will require additional debt issuances principally at our regulated utilities. We expect to issue nearly $1 billion of additional equity through our at-the-market program over the coming years. We will continue to use treasury shares to fund our dividend reinvestment and employee incentive programs. Should our strategic review results in a sale of our offshore wind investments, we would expect to use all of the net proceeds on day 1 to pay down parent debt. This will create increased financial flexibility in the future as we fund our regulated segments.

    幻燈片 21 說明了該資金的來源。正如我之前提到的,除了改善現金流之外,我們還需要主要在我們受監管的公用事業公司發行額外的債券。我們預計未來幾年將通過我們的上市計劃發行近 10 億美元的額外股本。我們將繼續使用庫存股為我們的股息再投資和員工激勵計劃提供資金。如果我們的戰略審查導致出售我們的海上風電投資,我們預計將在第一天使用所有淨收益來償還母公司債務。隨著我們為受監管的部門提供資金,這將在未來創造更大的財務靈活性。

  • Moving on to our regulatory update. In the past few years, we have had a lengthy discussion about various regulatory reviews, but this year, that discussion is much briefer. As you can see on Slide 22, we continue to await FERC's ruling on several pending complaints that were filed beginning in 2011, challenging the return on equity authorized for all of New England electric transmission owners. On the distribution side, the only ongoing rate review involves Aquarion Connecticut, where a draft decision is due shortly. Due to the capital program at Aquarion, as I mentioned earlier, Aquarion's returns have slipped below its currently allowed 9.63% authorized return on equity. We believe we have made a strong case for a reasonable increase in Aquarion's water rates, which are quite low compared to its peers. Elsewhere, we don't expect significant rate review activity in 2023. In Massachusetts, all 3 of our electric and natural gas utilities are currently operating under long-term rate plans that extend from 5 to 10 years.

    繼續我們的監管更新。在過去的幾年裡,我們對各種監管審查進行了長時間的討論,但今年,討論要簡短得多。正如您在幻燈片 22 中看到的那樣,我們繼續等待 FERC 對從 2011 年開始提交的幾項未決投訴的裁決,這些投訴對授權給所有新英格蘭電力傳輸所有者的股本回報提出質疑。在分銷方面,唯一正在進行的費率審查涉及 Aquarion Connecticut,其決定草案即將到期。由於 Aquarion 的資本計劃,正如我之前提到的,Aquarion 的回報率已低於其目前允許的 9.63% 的授權股本回報率。我們相信我們已經為合理提高 Aquarion 的水費提供了有力的理由,與同行相比,水費相當低。在其他地方,我們預計 2023 年不會有重大的費率審查活動。在馬薩諸塞州,我們所有 3 家電力和天然氣公用事業公司目前都在根據 5 年至 10 年的長期費率計劃運營。

  • Finally, as you can see on Slide 23, we continue to remind investors that they should consider our long-term track record and attractive risk profile in determining whether to invest in our company. This slide shows that over the decade since Eversource was created, we have consistently achieved the earnings and dividend growth we targeted while achieving very strong operating performance. We also have enhanced our ESG profile, which certainly ranks us among the best, if not the best, in the industry.

    最後,正如您在幻燈片 23 中看到的那樣,我們繼續提醒投資者,他們在決定是否投資我們公司時應考慮我們的長期業績記錄和有吸引力的風險狀況。這張幻燈片顯示,自 Eversource 創建以來的十年間,我們始終如一地實現了我們的目標收益和股息增長,同時實現了非常強勁的經營業績。我們還增強了我們的 ESG 形象,這無疑使我們躋身業內最佳(如果不是最佳的話)行列。

  • Thank you again for joining us this morning, and I will now turn the call over to Jeff.

    再次感謝您今天早上加入我們,我現在將把電話轉給傑夫。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Right. Thank you, John, and thank you again for the audience for sticking with us this morning. I'm going to turn the call back to Nadia to remind you how to enter questions in the queue, and then she'll turn it back to me, and we'll get going. So Nadia?

    正確的。謝謝你,約翰,再次感謝聽眾今天早上對我們的支持。我要把電話轉回給 Nadia,提醒你如何在隊列中輸入問題,然後她會把電話轉回給我,然後我們就開始了。那麼納迪亞?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • I'll hand back over to you, Jeff.

    我會交還給你,傑夫。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • All right. Thank you, Nadia. So our first question this morning is from Durgesh from Evercore.

    好的。謝謝你,納迪亞。所以我們今天早上的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Durgesh。

  • Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research

    Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research

  • Maybe, Joe, can you comment on sort of the offshore strategic review, right? Originally, you guys were targeting year-end last year for completion of the review. It's certainly taking longer than expected. So maybe what's driving that? Any color you could share there?

    也許,喬,你能評論一下離岸戰略審查嗎?最初,你們計劃在去年年底完成審核。這肯定比預期需要更長的時間。那麼也許是什麼推動了這一點?你可以在那里分享任何顏色嗎?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes, Durgesh, thank you so much for being on the call. Yes. So I just will tell you that I am the eternal optimist. Obviously, I wanted to have some news for you by year-end, but this is complex project. It's got a lot of moving parts. And as you might imagine, it's not a straightforward transaction in terms of due diligence that has to take place here. We're talking about thousands of acres of the ocean floor people looking at, other pieces of this transaction. So it took longer and shame on me, I should have been a little more realistic on the timing. But I will tell you, there is significant interest in the lease here as well as the projects, and we are going to get a fair price for these assets. But I think the one thing that you should all take away from this call is that the progress that's taking place on these projects, we have not taken our eye off the ball. We will be in the wind business. We will be the first utility in the wind business in a large scale in the U.S. offshore wind business by the end of this year, which is pretty extraordinary. The other 2 projects are moving on quite well. As you know, the pricing of those projects is quite favorable. So we'll continue to drive this process and focus on this review and this exit. But unfortunately, it doesn't go at the pace that I like to go. I'd like to move at a good pace, but this is very complex, and you need to -- folks need to understand that any buyer of these assets is going to want to do significant due diligence.

    是的,Durgesh,非常感謝你接聽電話。是的。所以我只會告訴你,我是永遠的樂觀主義者。顯然,我想在年底前為您提供一些消息,但這是一個複雜的項目。它有很多活動部件。正如您可能想像的那樣,就必須在這裡進行的盡職調查而言,這並不是一項簡單的交易。我們談論的是數千英畝的海底人們在看,這筆交易的其他部分。所以我花了更長的時間和恥辱,我應該在時機上更現實一點。但我會告訴你,這裡的租約和項目都有很大的利益,我們將為這些資產獲得一個公平的價格。但我認為你們都應該從這次電話會議中得到的一件事是,這些項目正在取得進展,我們並沒有把目光從球上移開。我們將從事風能業務。到今年年底,我們將成為美國海上風電業務中第一個大規模風電業務的公用事業公司,這非常了不起。其他 2 個項目進展順利。如您所知,這些項目的定價非常優惠。因此,我們將繼續推動這一進程,並專注於這次審查和這次退出。但不幸的是,它並沒有按照我喜歡的速度進行。我想以良好的速度前進,但這非常複雜,你需要——人們需要明白,這些資產的任何買家都希望進行重要的盡職調查。

  • Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research

    Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research

  • Understood. And then just maybe a quick follow-up. The Q2 kind of update on the review, what is that due to timing of a potential close? Is that still sort of midyear? Or are we thinking about second half of this year, if you do decide to go forward with the sale that is?

    明白了。然後可能只是快速跟進。 Q2 的審查更新,這是由於潛在關閉的時間安排?那還是年中嗎?或者我們正在考慮今年下半年,如果您決定繼續進行銷售的話?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Well, I'll tell you that the folks that are involved in the process right now are very sophisticated buyers. So we do not anticipate it would take -- it would happen -- it wouldn't happen in the second quarter but it would happen third at the latest, four. I mean this would be a very quick close because the level of due diligence that's taking place is significant. So it wouldn't be like you would get into an agreement and then have that process. That's all being done upfront. So we do -- it will take place this year is our anticipation.

    好吧,我會告訴你,現在參與這個過程的人都是非常老練的買家。因此,我們預計它不會——它會發生——它不會在第二季度發生,但最晚會發生在第三季度,第四季度。我的意思是這將很快結束,因為正在進行的盡職調查水平很高。因此,您不會先達成協議,然後再進行該流程。這一切都是預先完成的。所以我們這樣做了——我們預計它將在今年舉行。

  • Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research

    Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research

  • Got it. And then just one final one, if I can, and then I'll jump back in the queue. So a lot of investors have asked about the CapEx raise this morning and how that translates into your long-term EPS growth rate. I mean the rate base growth CAGR is up. It's now 7.5%. And relative to your guidance of 5% to 7%, you're saying solidly in the second half. Just can you comment on that? Are you being a little conservative here?

    知道了。然後是最後一個,如果可以的話,我會跳回到隊列中。因此,許多投資者今天早上詢問了資本支出的提高以及這如何轉化為您的長期每股收益增長率。我的意思是利率基礎增長率 CAGR 上升了。現在是7.5%。相對於你 5% 到 7% 的指導,你在下半年說得很穩固。你能對此發表評論嗎?你在這裡有點保守嗎?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Yes. Durgesh, this is John. So I think the wildcard is where we think interest rates are going to be over the near term and longer term, right? And on that front, I can tell you that we've been very conservative in our assumptions in our plan. Obviously, if those are the actual results by the feds just don't materialize to what we have, and that will have an impact in and move us further directionally up or down. And the guidance range that we gave for next year is pretty wide. And what will -- as we did last year, if you recall, we will revisit that range kind of midyear, and we'll have a better view on things, but the uncertainty right now is, where interest rates are going to land.

    是的。 Durgesh,這是約翰。所以我認為通配符是我們認為利率將在短期和長期內發生的地方,對嗎?在這方面,我可以告訴你,我們在計劃中的假設一直非常保守。顯然,如果這些是美聯儲的實際結果,那麼就不會實現我們所擁有的,這將對我們產生影響,並使我們進一步向上或向下移動。我們為明年提供的指導範圍非常廣泛。什麼會 - 就像我們去年所做的那樣,如果你還記得的話,我們將在年中重新審視這個範圍,我們會對事情有更好的看法,但現在的不確定性是,利率將下降到哪裡。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Our next question is from Nick from Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的尼克。

  • Nicholas Joseph Campanella - Research Analyst

    Nicholas Joseph Campanella - Research Analyst

  • Just real quick on the fiscal '23 drivers. I think you said, you expect an increase in equity investment valuation. Just what is that item, if you could just help us understand that? And can you quantify how large that is in terms of the fiscal '23 benefit?

    真正快速地了解'23 財政年度的司機。我想你說過,你期望股權投資估值上升。那是什麼項目,如果你能幫助我們理解它?你能量化這在 23 世紀財政收益方面有多大嗎?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Sure, sure. I'll take you back. We've had multiple years where we've had pluses and minuses. I think the pluses have always outweighed the minuses. So this is an equity investment that we've had in renewable resources, primarily landfill gas generation. We -- if you recall last year in the second quarter, we recognized fair -- a mark-to-market on that investment of about $12 million, and we are seeing very attractive valuations on that footprint. So we have baked an increase, assuming that we'll get another favorable mark-to-market. We have done this in the past where we had the conviction that we thought it was going to be favorable, but it's -- over the years, it's been a wild card. We've had baked these adjustments into our plan and our guidance previously.

    一定一定。我送你回去。多年來,我們既有優點也有缺點。我認為優點總是大於缺點。所以這是我們在可再生資源方面的股權投資,主要是垃圾填埋氣發電。我們 - 如果你還記得去年第二季度,我們認識到公平 - 約 1200 萬美元的投資按市值計算,我們看到該足蹟的估值非常有吸引力。因此,假設我們將獲得另一個有利的按市值計價,我們已經增加了。我們過去曾這樣做過,我們堅信我們認為這將是有利的,但它 - 多年來,它一直是一個外卡。我們之前已經將這些調整納入了我們的計劃和指南中。

  • Nicholas Joseph Campanella - Research Analyst

    Nicholas Joseph Campanella - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then I guess just on the funding plan, can you just kind of discuss -- have you kind of put this in front of Moody's, what's their view and just confidence level and kind of moving off the negative outlook here?

    好的。然後我想就融資計劃而言,你能不能討論一下——你有沒有把這個放在穆迪面前,他們的觀點是什麼,信心水平是多少,以及如何擺脫負面展望?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Sure. Sure thing, Nick. Yes. So I mean we continuously meet with Moody's and all 3 of the credit rating agencies, and we certainly did that post announcement of our win divestiture. So they fully understand and appreciate our plans. We will be meeting with them over the next 2 months as we go through that annual cycle. But I think if you recall, when we announced the offshore wind divestiture, both S&P and Moody's did take some action on -- obviously a favorable action. So they are in tune and lockstep with what we are planning to do.

    當然。當然可以,尼克。是的。所以我的意思是我們不斷地與穆迪和所有 3 家信用評級機構會面,我們當然是在宣布我們的勝利資產剝離後這樣做的。所以他們完全理解和欣賞我們的計劃。我們將在接下來的 2 個月內與他們會面,因為我們將經歷這個年度週期。但我想,如果你還記得的話,當我們宣布剝離海上風電時,標準普爾和穆迪確實採取了一些行動——顯然是一項有利的行動。因此,他們與我們計劃做的事情保持一致併步調一致。

  • Nicholas Joseph Campanella - Research Analyst

    Nicholas Joseph Campanella - Research Analyst

  • And one last one for me just on your regulatory strategy. I know you've been staying out on the distribution side in Connecticut. Just how do we kind of think about when the next rate case would be?

    最後一個關於你的監管策略。我知道您一直在康涅狄格州的分銷方面置身事外。我們如何考慮下一個利率案例是什麼時候?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • On the electric distribution side, as you know, we have a settlement agreement that precludes any rate change -- base rate changes no earlier than 1/1/24, okay? I think right now, we're not earning the allowed, but we're not that far from it. I think we can stay out as far as 2025, the end of 2025. So I think that's kind of where our head is at, but that will -- that rate case will trigger recovery of storm costs. So you could very well see some filings that we want to start the prudency review of those storm costs later this year.

    在配電方面,如您所知,我們有一項和解協議排除了任何利率變化——基本利率變化不早於 24 年 1 月 1 日,好嗎?我認為現在,我們沒有獲得允許的收入,但我們離它並不遠。我認為我們可以堅持到 2025 年,即 2025 年底。所以我認為這就是我們的頭腦所在,但那將會——利率情況將觸發風暴成本的恢復。所以你很可能會看到一些文件,我們希望在今年晚些時候開始對這些風暴成本進行審慎審查。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Next question is from James Kennedy from Guggenheim.

    下一個問題來自古根海姆的詹姆斯肯尼迪。

  • James Kennedy - Associate

    James Kennedy - Associate

  • So I guess just on the wind sale. You previously indicated that there could be separate sales at least in the projects. Is that still the case? And then also, it looks like there's a little bit of creep in the total costs. Where are you seeing the pressures? And what's in the balance of the unlocked cost at this point?

    所以我想只是在風中銷售。您之前表示,至少在項目中可能會有單獨的銷售。現在還是這樣嗎?然後,看起來總成本有點小幅上漲。你在哪裡看到壓力?此時解鎖成本的餘額是多少?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. We do feel that the -- this would be more than to be too biased somebody for undeveloped lease areas and folks that are interested in projects. We had -- we did see higher costs associated with the foundation transportation and the installation contracts. As you might imagine, when you move to these larger turbines, the 11 megawatts, it was obviously very, very helpful for the project, but it also brought larger foundation basis, which drove costs. So that was the issue.

    是的。我們確實認為 - 對於未開發的租賃區域和對項目感興趣的人來說,這不僅僅是過於偏袒某些人。我們有——我們確實看到了與基礎運輸和安裝合同相關的更高成本。正如您想像的那樣,當您轉向這些更大的渦輪機時,即 11 兆瓦,這顯然對項目非常非常有幫助,但它也帶來了更大的基礎,從而推高了成本。這就是問題所在。

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • And James, we have those numbers in the appendix. I'll direct your attention to that.

    詹姆斯,我們在附錄中有這些數字。我會提醒你注意這一點。

  • James Kennedy - Associate

    James Kennedy - Associate

  • Okay. Perfect. And then just on the incremental spend you guys have in the slides, how should we think about the shape of that and the sizing through the forecast when the -- lumpy on the transmission side? Is it outside of '27? Just how should we think about the SKU there?

    好的。完美的。然後就你們在幻燈片中的增量支出,我們應該如何考慮它的形狀和預測的大小,當 - 傳輸方面的塊狀?是在 27 年之外嗎?我們應該如何考慮那裡的 SKU?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • I would say, the majority -- the vast majority of that will happen between now and 2026. Some of those investments can spill over into 2027. The only one that's more longer term is the -- what I mentioned in my formal remarks, and that's the Cambridge substation. That's probably a bit longer. That probably takes us out through 2028.. And then I would also mention -- I'm sorry, go ahead.

    我想說的是,大多數 - 絕大多數將發生在現在和 2026 年之間。其中一些投資可能會延續到 2027 年。唯一更長期的是 - 我在正式發言中提到的,以及那是劍橋變電站。那可能要長一些。這可能會讓我們堅持到 2028 年……然後我還要提一下——對不起,請繼續。

  • James Kennedy - Associate

    James Kennedy - Associate

  • No, you go. Sorry.

    不,你去。對不起。

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • I would also mention that, that incremental, that $3.3 billion of incremental investments, I think it's important for everyone to understand that 2/3 of that has already been approved by regulators.

    我還要提到的是,33 億美元的增量投資,我認為每個人都必須了解其中的 2/3 已經得到監管機構的批准。

  • James Kennedy - Associate

    James Kennedy - Associate

  • Yes. Okay. And John, just on the sales side, any update on efforts to mitigate the tax leakage?

    是的。好的。約翰,就銷售方面而言,是否有任何關於減少稅收流失的最新進展?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • We continue to look and explore opportunities, but given how we want the transaction to be structured, it's going to be a challenge for us.

    我們繼續尋找和探索機會,但考慮到我們希望如何構建交易,這對我們來說將是一個挑戰。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Our next question is from Angie from Seaport.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie。

  • Agnieszka Anna Storozynski - Research Analyst

    Agnieszka Anna Storozynski - Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to talk about offshore wind. So we saw a write-down of Sunrise at Ørsted. I don't see the 10-K from you guys, but I'm assuming you didn't write down the project. And I'm just wondering, is it because it was reflected at a different amount in your books versus what Ørsted had? Or is it somewhat indicative of what you have embedded as your expectation for the sale of the process -- of the project?

    我只想談談海上風電。所以我們在 Ørsted 看到了 Sunrise 的減記。我沒有從你們那裡看到 10-K,但我假設你們沒有寫下這個項目。我只是想知道,是不是因為它在您的書中反映的數量與 Ørsted 的數量不同?或者它是否在某種程度上表明了您對項目銷售過程的期望?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Sure. Angie, this is John. I can assure you, you will not see an impairment in our 10-K when we file it tomorrow. But with that said, let me give you kind of the key drivers of that. Number one, different accounting. Ørsted is under international accounting standards. The joint venture is under GAAP -- U.S. GAAP, and it's a different calculation as to how you assess an impairment, okay? So 2 things -- 2 conditions that prompted that. As Joe mentioned, 90% of the cost being finalized. Those costs came in a bit higher than what we anticipated and the fact where interest rates are. That's -- those are the 2 elements that drove Ørsted to take a look at the impairment for Sunrise. Under the International Accounting Standards, the first step in the assessment is, you have to assess your future cash inflows, and those have to be at a discounted rate. So that's really the 2 key measures that forced Ørsted to look at this and take the payment charge.

    當然。安吉,這是約翰。我可以向您保證,當我們明天提交 10-K 時,您不會看到它有任何缺陷。但話雖如此,讓我給你一些關鍵驅動因素。第一,不同的會計。 Ørsted 遵循國際會計準則。合資企業是根據 GAAP——美國 GAAP 進行的,關於如何評估減值,這是不同的計算方式,好嗎?所以 2 件事 - 2 個條件提示了這一點。正如 Joe 提到的,90% 的成本正在最終確定。這些成本比我們預期的要高一些,也比實際利率要高。那就是——這些是促使 Ørsted 研究 Sunrise 減值的兩個因素。根據國際會計準則,評估的第一步是,你必須評估你未來的現金流入,而且這些現金流入必須以貼現率計算。因此,這確實是迫使 Ørsted 審視此問題並收取費用的 2 個關鍵措施。

  • Agnieszka Anna Storozynski - Research Analyst

    Agnieszka Anna Storozynski - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. And then on -- so we're seeing a delay in your process, but also a delay in the sale processes for onshore wind or solar assets. And I'm just wondering, is it -- I mean is it maybe that potential buyers are waiting for some clarity from the IRS about tax credits from the IRA, and if that's the case, when would you actually expect some clarity on those credits?

    好的。好的。然後 - 所以我們看到您的流程有所延遲,但陸上風能或太陽能資產的銷售流程也有所延遲。我只是想知道,是不是——我的意思是潛在買家可能正在等待美國國稅局對 IRA 的稅收抵免做出一些明確說明,如果是這樣的話,你什麼時候會真正期待這些抵免的明確性? ?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Well, I think the clarity from the IRA was effective beginning this year, right? So they will have to issue some guidance soon, and we think it is soon. But obviously, it's an area that we feel comfortable with based on where we see the procurement coming from, and we have convey that to the candidates that we're speaking to. But until those regulations come out, you don't know what you don't know.

    好吧,我認為 IRA 的清晰度從今年開始是有效的,對吧?因此他們將不得不很快發布一些指南,我們認為很快就會發布。但顯然,根據我們看到的採購來源,這是一個我們感到滿意的領域,我們已經將這一點傳達給了我們正在與之交談的候選人。但是在那些規定出來之前,你不知道你不知道什麼。

  • Agnieszka Anna Storozynski - Research Analyst

    Agnieszka Anna Storozynski - Research Analyst

  • I understand. And then lastly, so there are lots and lots of bills proposed in the Connecticut legislature related to utilities. And I hear you that you're not likely to have a rate case within probably the next 2 years, but there's been discussion about how regulators see settlements, and in general, some push for increased supervision over electric utilities. I mean is there any comments I think you can make on those points?

    我明白。最後,康涅狄格州立法機構提出了很多與公用事業相關的法案。我聽說你不太可能在未來 2 年內遇到費率案件,但一直在討論監管機構如何看待和解,總的來說,一些人推動加強對電力公司的監管。我的意思是,我認為您可以就這些觀點發表任何意見嗎?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. So this is Joe, Angie. So I think this time of the year, you'll begin to see in all jurisdictions legislative proposals that come out that will cover the landscape of our business. I think in terms of settlements, I think if you read the stories there, the fact of the matter is that the governor was very much on board. It was his settlement. 2 of the 3 commissioners run with settlements and even some of the consumer reps. So yes, there's a different philosophy down there around settlements maybe in Connecticut. But it's so different than any year in terms of what takes place up there. And we will go up, and we've been very actively involved in the discussions. And I think everybody knows that our operations -- utility operations are transparent. There's really not much that folks don't see. So it's just the first inning of a 9-inning game, and we'll have a seat at the table as we always do and discuss these issues.

    是的。這是喬,安吉。因此,我認為每年的這個時候,您將開始在所有司法管轄區中看到涵蓋我們業務範圍的立法提案。我認為就定居點而言,我認為如果你閱讀那裡的故事,事實是州長非常支持。這是他的定居點。 3 名委員中有 2 名負責和解,甚至還有一些消費者代表。所以是的,也許在康涅狄格州的定居點周圍有不同的哲學。但就那裡發生的事情而言,它與任何一年都大不相同。我們會上升,我們一直非常積極地參與討論。我想每個人都知道我們的運營——公用事業運營是透明的。人們看不到的東西真的不多。所以這只是 9 局比賽的第一局,我們將像往常一樣坐在桌子旁討論這些問題。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Next question is from [Greg Oral] from UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀的 [Greg Oral]。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Just around the '23 financing plan. Is it possible to put a range around the use of the ATM?

    就在'23融資計劃前後。是否可以為 ATM 的使用設定一個範圍?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • What I've been saying right along is, we're -- it's not a marathon. We don't have to -- and it's not a sprint where we have to issue. So what we said and I continue to say is, we will continue to be very opportunistic as to when we execute that plan and issue more. Remind everyone that we did $200 million last year in kind of the third quarter at an average price of $92. I would love to be in a position to do more at $92, but we'll have to keep a close eye on our stock performance. So I really can't say. I'll give you a range as to what we would need to do or would want to do at this point.

    我一直在說的是,我們——這不是一場馬拉松。我們不必 - 而且這不是我們必鬚髮布的衝刺。所以我們說的和我繼續說的是,我們將繼續非常機會主義地執行該計劃並發行更多。提醒大家,我們去年第三季度以平均 92 美元的價格賣出了 2 億美元。我很樂意以 92 美元的價格做更多,但我們必須密切關注我們的股票表現。所以我真的不能說。我會給你一個範圍,說明此時我們需要做什麼或想要做什麼。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Okay. Also on the Connecticut AMI, is there anything coming up that would give you the ability to put that into the capital plan?

    好的。同樣在康涅狄格州 AMI 上,是否有任何事情可以讓您有能力將其納入資本計劃?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • [An honor] would be nice. No, I think just given the -- we have to be mindful, and we have to be very sensitive of where energy supply costs are, right? So I think as we are -- we are starting to see it go in the right direction for customers. And the cycle is, as I mentioned, new rates will be in effect in Connecticut in July 1. So could PURA take that up to coincide with that? It would seem to be a reasonable outcome. But I think until things tamper down, everything is done. The record is basically closed. So it's just a matter of a decision by PURA.

    [榮譽]會很好。不,我認為只是考慮到 - 我們必須注意,我們必須對能源供應成本在哪裡非常敏感,對嗎?所以我認為我們現在 - 我們開始看到它朝著對客戶正確的方向發展。正如我提到的,這個週期是,新利率將於 7 月 1 日在康涅狄格州生效。那麼 PURA 能否將其與此相吻合?這似乎是一個合理的結果。但我認為,直到事情被篡改,一切都完成了。記錄基本關閉。所以這只是 PURA 的決定。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock.

    下一個問題來自 Glenrock 的 Paul Patterson。

  • Paul Patterson - Analyst

    Paul Patterson - Analyst

  • Just wanted to follow up -- can you hear me?

    只是想跟進——你能聽到我說話嗎?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes, yes.

    是的是的。

  • Paul Patterson - Analyst

    Paul Patterson - Analyst

  • Okay. So a couple of things. One on the PBR proceeding. There was a staff proposal, that concept proposal seems regarding performance-based regulation in Connecticut. That had sort of some U.K. elements potentially showing up. And I was just wondering if you could give us a feeling as to, a, when you think we might get more clarity as to when the PURA will take more action regarding that proceeding? And also, just if you have any initial response to what you saw the staff proposal have?

    好的。所以有幾件事。一個關於 PBR 程序。有一個工作人員提案,該概念提案似乎是關於康涅狄格州基於績效的監管。這可能會出現一些英國元素。我只是想知道您是否可以給我們一種感覺,a,您認為我們什麼時候可以更清楚地了解 PURA 何時會對該程序採取更多行動?而且,如果你對你看到的員工提案有任何初步回應?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Yes, Paul, this is John. I think right now, it's still a little too early in this process. To be quite honest with you, they did issue that (inaudible) proposal, which was very ambiguous. So we are working with them to share with them some concerns that we have and what the consequences could be if they go a certain direction. But right now, it's similar to what Joe mentioned in the legislative process, it's a bit too early.

    是的,保羅,這是約翰。我認為現在這個過程還為時過早。老實說,他們確實發布了那個(聽不清)提案,這個提案非常模棱兩可。因此,我們正在與他們合作,與他們分享我們的一些擔憂,以及如果他們朝某個方向發展可能會產生什麼後果。但現在,這與 Joe 在立法過程中提到的類似,有點為時過早。

  • Paul Patterson - Analyst

    Paul Patterson - Analyst

  • Okay. And then you mentioned the FERC 2011 ROE proceedings. Do you have any more of a sense as to when we might eventually actually get something from FERC on that?

    好的。然後你提到了 FERC 2011 ROE 程序。對於我們最終什麼時候可以從 FERC 那裡得到一些東西,你是否有更多的感覺?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Paul, I wish I did. I think what we're looking at -- and there's been the MISO decision remanded back. So it's before FERC, I really think that FERC is going to issue a decision on the MISO and kind of fix the methodology, and then we should see a decision on the remainder of the complaints that's out there, not just for New England, but other jurisdictions.

    保羅,我希望我做到了。我認為我們正在看的是 - 已經將 MISO 決定退回。所以在 FERC 之前,我真的認為 FERC 將發布關於 MISO 的決定並修復方法,然後我們應該看到對現有投訴的其餘部分的決定,不僅針對新英格蘭,而且其他司法管轄區。

  • Paul Patterson - Analyst

    Paul Patterson - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just finally, Joe, you mentioned the optimism that you've had and stuff regarding the offshore wind review. If you can just maybe give us a sense as to sort of the -- if you're kind of a gambler kind of thing sort of like 50-50, how you think maybe we might think about handicapping this potential sale is taking place at this point in time?

    好的。最後,喬,你提到了你對海上風電審查的樂觀態度和內容。如果你能給我們一種感覺——如果你是一個賭徒,大概是 50-50,你認為我們可能會如何考慮阻止這種潛在的銷售發生在這個時間點?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Well, I feel very confident. I mean the folks that are in the mix, the folks that have been doing due diligence, very sophisticated players. Some of them have lost out on some opportunities in the Americas. So they want to be in the business. I think that you've seen that appetite. So I am very, very confident in that process and the success of the process.

    嗯,我覺得很有信心。我的意思是那些參與其中的人,那些一直在做盡職調查的人,非常老練的玩家。他們中的一些人在美洲失去了一些機會。所以他們想從事這項業務。我想你已經看到了那種胃口。所以我對這個過程和這個過程的成功非常非常有信心。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Next question is from Ryan Levine from Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ryan Levine。

  • Ryan Michael Levine - VP

    Ryan Michael Levine - VP

  • A few questions here. What flexibility do you have in your financing plan if the offshore wind sale process gets delayed further? The smaller in size, it doesn't materialize. Any color you could share around the tools you have to manage the various outcomes and your latest thoughts.

    這裡有幾個問題。如果海上風電銷售過程進一步延遲,您的融資計劃有什麼靈活性?尺寸越小,它就沒有實現。您可以圍繞管理各種結果和最新想法的工具分享任何顏色。

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Is your question, if the transaction does not happen? Or is it if it gets delayed? I just want to make sure I understand it.

    你的問題是,如果交易沒有發生?或者它是否會延遲?我只是想確保我理解它。

  • Ryan Michael Levine - VP

    Ryan Michael Levine - VP

  • I guess I was asking both. Just broadly around what options do you have if it gets delayed, it's smaller in size or it doesn't happen at all?

    我想我是在問兩個。大致圍繞如果它被延遲,它的大小更小或者根本不會發生,你有什麼選擇?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Well, we would have to issue more debt. We have been financing our $1.9 billion investment by issuing debt. And we have to -- and also, we have we -- the transaction doesn't happen, right? We are committed to those tax benefits, right? So off the gate, we have our first project going live, South Fork, later this year. So there would be a sizable amount of tax credits that would be generated. So that would certainly help finance that commitment.

    好吧,我們將不得不發行更多的債務。我們一直在通過發行債券為 19 億美元的投資融資。我們必須——而且,我們有——交易不會發生,對吧?我們致力於那些稅收優惠,對嗎?因此,今年晚些時候,我們的第一個項目 South Fork 即將上線。因此,將會產生大量的稅收抵免。因此,這肯定有助於為該承諾提供資金。

  • Ryan Michael Levine - VP

    Ryan Michael Levine - VP

  • And then on the offshore wind CapEx, what are the remaining drivers of the variance between 2023 and then '24 to 2026. It looks like there's about $500 million of delta in different cases. Can you unpack what's driving that delta?

    然後在海上風電資本支出方面,2023 年到 24 到 2026 年之間差異的其餘驅動因素是什麼。在不同的情況下看起來大約有 5 億美元的增量。你能解開驅動三角洲的因素嗎?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Well, it's directly related to some of the recent procurement that we finalized that got us from the 82% locked into the 90% locked in, and that's primarily the foundation for some of these projects.

    好吧,這與我們最近完成的一些採購直接相關,這些採購使我們從 82% 鎖定到 90% 鎖定,這主要是其中一些項目的基礎。

  • Ryan Michael Levine - VP

    Ryan Michael Levine - VP

  • Okay. And then last question. What percentage of -- what percentage increase in your equity investments are you embedding in your 2023 EPS outlook? And what markers are you looking at for the landfill gas component that you disclosed earlier?

    好的。然後是最後一個問題。您在 2023 年每股收益展望中嵌入了多少百分比的股權投資增長?您正在尋找您之前披露的垃圾填埋場氣體成分的哪些標記?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • On the equity, I would say, we don't have a sizable component of that. But once again, I'm not going to marry myself to that. If the market is attractive and we want to take advantage of that opportunity, we may issue more or we may issue less. But right now, it's not a significant amount.

    在公平方面,我會說,我們沒有相當大的組成部分。但再一次,我不會把自己嫁給那個。如果市場有吸引力,我們想利用這個機會,我們可能會發行更多或更少。但現在,這不是一個很大的數目。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Next question is from Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Paul Zimbardo。

  • Paul Andrew Zimbardo - VP in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Paul Andrew Zimbardo - VP in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • On the earnings driver side, could you quantify first historically what the pension income was in 2022? And what you expect on income or expense for 2023?

    在收入驅動方面,您能否先從歷史上量化 2022 年的養老金收入是多少?您對 2023 年的收入或支出有何期望?

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Well, -- what I would tell you -- and it was part of my formal remarks is, the headwind, the difference '22 to '23 as a result of slightly lower pension income, to be honest with you, was -- is about $0.04 of an impact for 2023 versus 2022 for the reasons that I took. So not -- it's a modest negative year-over-year change.

    好吧,我要告訴你的是,老實說,由於養老金收入略低,22 歲和 23 歲之間的差異是——這是我正式發言的一部分——是——由於我採取的原因,2023 年與 2022 年的影響約為 0.04 美元。所以不是——這是一個適度的負同比變化。

  • Paul Andrew Zimbardo - VP in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Paul Andrew Zimbardo - VP in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And again, I appreciate all the disclosures involved on the incremental CapEx. Could you help a little bit on the bridge from the old guidance to the new guidance? I know you mentioned potential interest rate headwinds, but just kind of the building blocks? Because before, it sounded like there was a step up in 2026 from offshore wind and you more than replace that with capital. So just if you could help us on the moving pieces, that would be appreciated.

    好的。偉大的。再一次,我感謝所有涉及增量資本支出的披露。你能在從舊指南到新指南的橋樑上提供一點幫助嗎?我知道你提到了潛在的利率逆風,但只是一種基石?因為之前,聽起來海上風能在 2026 年有所提升,而你不僅僅是用資本來取代它。因此,如果您能幫助我們處理移動的部分,我們將不勝感激。

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Sure. I would say, it's primarily 2 items or maybe 3. The incremental CapEx, incremental investments. As you -- as shown on the slide, where we show a 7.5% CAGR for rate base growth. And interest rates, we do -- we have a strong track record of managing our cost structure. So -- but interest rates, it's difficult for us to manage and control. So it's a combination of that. And I would say, items that we have not yet included in our capital forecast, as they materialize, will be additive and that will have an impact on growth rate -- long-term growth rate.

    當然。我會說,它主要是 2 個項目,或者可能是 3 個。增量資本支出,增量投資。就像你一樣——如幻燈片所示,我們在其中顯示了 7.5% 的複合年增長率。還有利率,我們有——我們在管理成本結構方面有著良好的記錄。所以——但是利率,我們很難管理和控制。所以這是兩者的結合。我想說的是,我們尚未納入我們的資本預測的項目,隨著它們的實現,將是附加的,這將對增長率——長期增長率產生影響。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Next question is from David Paz from Wolfe.

    下一個問題來自 Wolfe 的 David Paz。

  • David Alexander Paz - Research Analyst

    David Alexander Paz - Research Analyst

  • Just quickly, you mentioned interest rates several times in your assumptions. Can you just share what interest rate you have baked into the midpoint of the '23 guidance?

    很快,您在假設中多次提到利率。你能分享一下你在 23 年指導方針中點設定的利率嗎?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • I would say, we're pretty much aligned with consensus when the plan was pulled together. I think consensus right now has multiple rate changes now in midyear, and we have baked that into our function.

    我想說的是,當計劃被拉到一起時,我們幾乎與共識保持一致。我認為現在的共識是在年中有多次利率變化,我們已經將其納入我們的職能。

  • David Alexander Paz - Research Analyst

    David Alexander Paz - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And are you seeing interest rates stay flat or rise or decline over the 5-year period?

    好的。您是否看到利率在 5 年期間保持不變或上升或下降?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • David, you might want to mute your phone while we're answering.

    大衛,我們接聽電話時你可能想把手機調成靜音。

  • John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

    John M. Moreira - Treasurer & CFO

  • Okay. Thank you, David. So yes -- no, we do taper off a bit in the latter year.

    好的。謝謝你,大衛。所以是的 - 不,我們在後一年確實有所減少。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar.

    下一個問題來自 Morningstar 的 Travis Miller。

  • Travis Miller - Director of Utilities Research and Strategist

    Travis Miller - Director of Utilities Research and Strategist

  • Longer term, wondering if you look out kind of 2 to 3 years, the comments around natural gas supply, electric rates, gas rates. Is there anything fundamentally you're seeing right now either in what you're doing capital investment, operating costs, et cetera? Or what else is happening in that region that could change some of that pricing dynamic and supply dynamic?

    從長遠來看,想知道你是否關注 2 到 3 年,圍繞天然氣供應、電費、天然氣費率的評論。在您正在進行的資本投資、運營成本等方面,您現在是否從根本上看到了什麼?或者該地區發生的其他事情可能會改變某些定價動態和供應動態?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. I mean I think -- this is Joe, Travis. So yes, I think what we have happening here is, we have a significant amount of renewable energy that's just waiting to come online, and I think that's going to be the game changer. Between that, I think you'll see a big push around storage. Storage is obviously a game changer. When you have intermittent resources around solar and wind, it's critical. And I think we're seeing a lot of breakthroughs in that space as well. So -- and I do on that -- I do feel confident that we are on the precipice of some exciting opportunities, which will drive down costs and increase supply for our customers. Unfortunately, you just can't get here quick enough as far as I'm concerned. But the fact that this project in New York will be up and running by year-end is exciting. The other projects are -- they're progressing quite well. Even our competitor's project are going well because we're obviously involved in some of those interconnections. So I do see it, but again, on behalf of our customers, it can't happen fast enough as far as I'm concerned.

    是的。我的意思是我認為——這是喬,特拉維斯。所以是的,我認為我們在這裡發生的是,我們有大量的可再生能源正等待上線,我認為這將改變遊戲規則。在此期間,我認為你會看到存儲方面的巨大推動力。存儲顯然是遊戲規則的改變者。當您在太陽能和風能周圍擁有間歇性資源時,這是至關重要的。而且我認為我們在該領域也看到了很多突破。所以——我就是這樣做的——我確實相信我們正處於一些令人興奮的機會的邊緣,這將降低成本並增加對我們客戶的供應。不幸的是,就我而言,你就是不能足夠快地到達這裡。但紐約的這個項目將在年底前啟動並運行這一事實令人興奮。其他項目 - 他們進展順利。甚至我們競爭對手的項目也進展順利,因為我們顯然參與了其中一些互連。所以我確實看到了,但再次代表我們的客戶,就我而言,它發生得不夠快。

  • Travis Miller - Director of Utilities Research and Strategist

    Travis Miller - Director of Utilities Research and Strategist

  • Sure. Okay. Just a real quick comment. Does the influence of renewables exacerbate the gas situation? Or like you were talking about improvement just in terms of a peak load time period?

    當然。好的。只是一個真正的快速評論。可再生能源的影響是否會加劇天然氣狀況?或者就像您只是在談論峰值負載時間段方面的改進?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Well, I think any additional resources in the region coupled with some storage improves the situation. We are -- we do a very good job here in the region around gas. It takes us quite some time and some planning, but we've been quite successful around that gas supply. So I think that the introductions of renewables are the increase in them, it's going to help the situation and not hurt it.

    好吧,我認為該地區的任何額外資源加上一些存儲都會改善這種情況。我們 - 我們在天然氣周圍的地區做得很好。這需要我們花費一些時間和一些計劃,但我們在天然氣供應方面取得了相當大的成功。所以我認為可再生能源的引入是可再生能源的增加,它會幫助而不是傷害它。

  • Travis Miller - Director of Utilities Research and Strategist

    Travis Miller - Director of Utilities Research and Strategist

  • Okay. Great. And then one other real quick one. O&M inflation isn't listed as one of your drivers in the pluses and minuses. Is that because you've got rate adjustments or something regulatory you expect to be offset? Or is that you're just not seeing cost inflation on the operating cost side?

    好的。偉大的。然後是另一個真正快速的。 O&M 通貨膨脹並未被列為優缺點的驅動因素之一。那是因為您進行了利率調整或您希望抵消的監管措施嗎?或者您只是沒有看到運營成本方面的成本膨脹?

  • Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

    Joseph R. Nolan - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes, Travis, so good point. So we are seeing that, but you're absolutely spot on. We do have inflation adjustments in Massachusetts, NSTAR Electric and at NSTAR Gas, where it's based on GDP and the inflation adjustment. And as I mentioned earlier, we have a very good track record of cost management, and we're very focused on that as well.

    是的,特拉維斯,說得好。所以我們看到了,但你絕對是正確的。我們在馬薩諸塞州、NSTAR Electric 和 NSTAR Gas 確實有通貨膨脹調整,它基於 GDP 和通貨膨脹調整。正如我之前提到的,我們在成本管理方面有很好的記錄,我們也非常關注這一點。

  • Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

    Jeffrey R. Kotkin - VP of IR

  • And that's the last question that we see this morning. So we want to thank you very much for bearing with us during the beginning of the call. If you have any follow-ups, please give us a call or send us an e-mail. And I'm just going to turn it back to Nadia.

    這是我們今天早上看到的最後一個問題。因此,我們非常感謝您在電話會議開始時對我們的包容。如果您有任何後續行動,請給我們打電話或給我們發送電子郵件。我只是要把它轉回Nadia。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This now concludes today's call. Thank you so much for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。