Edgewell Personal Care Co (EPC) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to Edgewell's second-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

    早安,歡迎參加 Edgewell 2025 財年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,此事件正在被記錄。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Gough, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁克里斯高夫 (Chris Gough)。先生,請繼續。

  • Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning for Edgewell's second quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call. With me this morning are Rod Little, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Dan Sullivan, our Chief Operating Officer; and Fran Weissman, our Chief Financial Officer.

    大家早安,感謝您今天上午參加 Edgewell 2025 財年第二季財報電話會議。今天早上和我一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長羅德·利特爾 (Rod Little)、我們的營運長 Dan Sullivan 和我們的財務長弗蘭·魏斯曼 (Fran Weissman)。

  • Rod will kick off the call and hand it over to Dan to discuss our second quarter commercial and operational highlights, followed by Fran, who will discuss our Q2 financial results and 2025 full year outlook. We will then transition to Q&A. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay on our website www.edgewell.com.

    羅德將開始電話會議,並將其交給丹,討論我們第二季度的商業和營運亮點,然後由弗蘭討論我們的第二季財務業績和 2025 年全年展望。然後我們將進入問答環節。本次通話將會被錄音,並可在我們的網站 www.edgewell.com 上重播。

  • During this call, we may make statements about our expectations for future plans and performance. This might include future sales, earnings, advertising and promotional spending, product launches, savings and costs related to restructuring and repositioning actions, acquisitions and integrations, impacts from tariffs and other recent developments, changes to our working capital metrics, currency fluctuations, commodity costs, inflation, category value, future plans for return of capital to shareholders and more.

    在這次電話會議中,我們可能會對未來計畫和業績的預期發表聲明。這可能包括未來的銷售、收益、廣告和促銷支出、產品發布、與重組和重新定位行動相關的節省和成本、收購和整合、關稅和其他近期發展的影響、我們的營運資本指標的變化、貨幣波動、商品成本、通貨膨脹、類別價值、未來向股東返還資本的計劃等等。

  • Any such statements are forward-looking statements for the purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which reflect our current views with respect to future events, plans or prospects.

    任何此類聲明均為 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案安全港條款所指的前瞻性聲明,反映了我們對未來事件、計劃或前景的當前看法。

  • These statements are based on assumptions and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those described under the caption Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30, 2024, as amended November 21, 2024, and as may be amended in our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

    這些聲明是基於假設,並受各種風險和不確定性的影響,包括我們截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的年度報告 10-K 表(經 2024 年 11 月 21 日修訂)中「風險因素」標題下所述的風險和不確定性,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的季度報告 10-Q 表(可能和不確定性)中所述的風險和不確定性。

  • These risks may cause our actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements. We do not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law.

    這些風險可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述所表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。除非法律要求,我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述以反映新事件或情況的義務。

  • During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is shown in our press release issued earlier today, which is available at the Investor Relations section of our website.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計準則指標並非依照公認會計原則編製。我們今天稍早發布的新聞稿中顯示了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳情況,該新聞稿可在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分查閱。

  • This non-GAAP information is provided as a supplement to not as a substitute for or as superior to measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. However, management believes these non-GAAP measures provide investors with valuable information on the underlying trends of our business.

    此非 GAAP 資訊僅作為補充提供,不能替代或優於依照 GAAP 編制的財務績效指標。然而,管理階層認為這些非公認會計準則指標為投資者提供了有關我們業務基本趨勢的寶貴資訊。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rod.

    說完這些,我想把電話轉給羅德。

  • Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on our second quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call. Our execution was solid this quarter. We acted with urgency, discipline and purpose in an environment that became increasingly challenging and volatile, delivering adjusted earnings per share and EBITDA in line with our expectations.

    謝謝你,克里斯。大家早安,感謝您參加我們的 2025 財年第二季財報電話會議。本季我們的執行情況很穩健。在日益充滿挑戰和動蕩的環境中,我們採取了緊迫、自律和有目的的行動,實現了符合我們預期的調整後每股收益和 EBITDA。

  • This was driven by continued topline growth across our international markets, compelling consumer-centric innovation in Wet Shave, Sun Care and Grooming and accelerated productivity savings that underpinned another quarter of meaningful year-on-year gross margin accretion.

    這是由於我們國際市場的持續收入成長、濕剃、防曬和美容領域引人注目的以消費者為中心的創新以及加速的生產力節約所推動的,這些都支撐了本季度毛利率同比大幅增長。

  • Importantly, we remained in investment mode across our business to support exciting new brand campaigns and ensure strong support for our newly launched innovation. Organic net sales were below our expectations in the quarter, primarily due to a slower-than-expected recovery in our US Fem Care portfolio and a slower start to the sun season in the United States as consumption declined year-over-year due mostly to poor weather across the country.

    重要的是,我們在整個業務中保持投資模式,以支持令人興奮的新品牌活動,並確保為我們新推出的創新提供強有力的支持。本季有機淨銷售額低於我們的預期,主要原因是我們美國女性護理產品組合的復甦慢於預期,以及美國陽光季節開始較慢,因為全國惡劣天氣導致消費量同比下降。

  • While overall consumption across our categories remained mostly in line with 26 and 52 week trends, escalating uncertainty appears to be weighing on consumers and negatively impacting overall sentiment. We like others are operating in a volatile global environment, requiring maximum focus on execution and controlling what we can control.

    雖然我們各類別的整體消費基本上與 26 週和 52 週的趨勢一致,但不斷升級的不確定性似乎正在給消費者帶來壓力,並對整體情緒產生負面影響。我們和其他人一樣,在動盪的全球環境中運營,需要最大限度地專注於執行並控制我們能夠控制的事情。

  • As we take stock of the progress we are making in the transformation of our business, I'm very pleased with the work done across much of the business with clear proof points of sustained success. Equally, there is more that needs to be done in North America, where we are on a path, and I'm increasingly confident in as a result of new leadership, which has brought enhanced modern brand-building capabilities and a refreshed assessment of our portfolio strategy.

    當我們評估我們在業務轉型方面所取得的進展時,我對大部分業務所做的工作感到非常滿意,這些工作有明顯的持續成功的證據。同樣,我們在北美還有更多工作要做,而且由於新領導層的到來,我越來越有信心,他們帶來了增強的現代品牌建立能力和對我們投資組合策略的全新評估。

  • To date, we have acted with purpose and urgency reshaping our business and providing the foundation for sustainable top and bottom-line success. The proof points of our progress are seen clearly in four areas. First, we've re-platformed our international business.

    迄今為止,我們已採取有目的、有緊迫感的行動重塑我們的業務,並為可持續的營收和利潤成功奠定基礎。我們的進步體現在四個方面。首先,我們重新建構了國際業務平台。

  • And under Dan's direction, we've meaningfully improved end market leadership and commercial capabilities, empowered our teams to win locally and strengthen our brands and relative market share performance. Now representing 40% of our net sales profile, this business has delivered consistent mid to high single-digit organic growth over a four-year period and become a strength of our broader business.

    在丹的指導下,我們顯著提高了終端市場領導力和商業能力,使我們的團隊能夠在當地取勝,並加強我們的品牌和相對市場份額表現。該業務目前占我們淨銷售額的 40%,在四年內持續實現中高個位數有機成長,並成為我們整體業務的一大優勢。

  • Second, our innovation platform now delivers both renovation and revolution for the portfolio with a consumer-centric foundation and a locally led mindset. In just the last year, we've expanded the Billie brand offering and geographic reach. We've taken Bulldog into premium skin care, broadened the CREMO range.

    其次,我們的創新平台現在以消費者為中心,以本地為主導的思維方式為產品組合帶來革新和革命。僅在去年,我們就擴大了 Billie 品牌的供應和地理覆蓋範圍。我們將 Bulldog 帶入高端皮膚護理領域,擴大了 CREMO 系列。

  • We've brought the consumer new formulations and formats in Banana Boat and Hawaiian Tropic, and we've expanded into the everyday skin and sun market in Latin America, just to name a few. And the impact of our new innovation model is perhaps best evidenced in Japan, whereas the market leader, we've reshaped men's shave with the launch of Schick First Tokyo, taken the Schick brand to premium skin care with the launch of the Protista brand in premium channels and expanded our range in Women's Shave with the trendy launch of the [Salon Plus] product lineup.

    我們為消費者帶來了香蕉船和夏威夷熱帶等品牌的新配方和新形式,並且我們已經擴展到拉丁美洲的日常皮膚和防曬市場,這只是其中幾個例子。我們的新創新模式的影響可能在日本得到了最好的體現,而作為市場領導者,我們通過推出 Schick First Tokyo 重塑了男士剃須市場,通過在高端渠道推出 Protista 品牌將 Schick 品牌帶入高端護膚領域,並通過推出時尚的 [Salon Plus] 產品系列擴大了我們在女士剃須領域的產品範圍。

  • Third, we've made productivity and efficiency the cornerstone of how we operate, demonstrating the ability to consistently deliver over 200 basis points a year in realized cost of goods savings and applied a relentless approach to simplification in all that we do.

    第三,我們將生產力和效率作為我們營運的基石,證明了我們能夠每年持續實現超過 200 個基點的商品成本節約,並在我們所做的一切事情中採取不懈的簡化方法。

  • And fourth, our commercial capabilities are meaningfully better than at any point in my tenure as CEO, in large part based on the success we've had internationally, as I just highlighted. We focused on improving how we architect the portfolio, we've employed a more modern brand-building approach, and we are activating our brands with a combination of award-winning campaigns, rich digital content design and better omni-channel execution.

    第四,我們的商業能力比我擔任執行長期間的任何時候都要好得多,這在很大程度上基於我們在國際上的成功,正如我剛才強調的那樣。我們專注於改進產品組合的建構方式,採用了更現代化的品牌建立方法,並透過屢獲殊榮的活動、豐富的數位內容設計和更好的全通路執行來啟動我們的品牌。

  • All of these points reinforce the progress we've made and underpin the confidence that I have that we are absolutely on the right track as a business. Equally, we are not where we need to be with respect to our North American business. And here lies our biggest focus and also our greatest opportunity.

    所有這些觀點都鞏固了我們所取得的進展,並增強了我的信心,即我們作為一家企業絕對走在正確的軌道上。同樣,我們的北美業務也還沒有達到應有的水準。這是我們最大的關注點,也是我們最大的機會。

  • Jess is now in month six of her tenure, and she has acted with pace, focusing her and her team's effort in three key areas. First, spending considerable time with our US retail customers to restore and improve critical elements to our working partnership.

    傑西上任現已進入第六個月,她行動迅速,將她和她的團隊的努力集中在三個關鍵領域。首先,我們花費大量時間與美國零售客戶一起恢復和改善我們合作關係的關鍵要素。

  • Second, making important leadership changes in key commercial roles that have provided a needed step change in talent and capabilities. And third, she and the team are acting with purpose and urgency in a strategic effort to both assess and address our business, a broad strategic review equally focused on rigorous analysis and understanding of all of the underlying drivers of our performance and at the same time, rapidly designing actionable solutions for both the near and longer term.

    其次,對關鍵商業職位的領導階層進行重大變動,為人才和能力帶來必要的重大轉變。第三,她和團隊正有目的地、有緊迫感地採取策略行動,評估和解決我們的業務,進行廣泛的策略審查,同樣注重嚴格分析和理解我們業績的所有潛在驅動因素,同時迅速設計出短期和長期可行的解決方案。

  • With the assessment work almost complete, we are moving forward to capitalize on both the near-term and longer-term opportunities. This has led us to incrementally invest in the United States, largely in sun care and ahave with focus on strengthening brand equity and solidifying our place on shelf. Dan will share more about these specifics shortly.

    隨著評估工作接近完成,我們將繼續努力利用近期和長期機會。這促使我們在美國逐步投資,主要投資於防曬和ahave,重點是加強品牌資產和鞏固我們的貨架地位。丹很快就會分享更多有關這些細節的資訊。

  • The success we've had in repositioning our international business, combined with the early read on progress in the US provides us with confidence that we can deliver similar success in North America. Importantly, recent results are encouraging as both consumption and market share performance strengthened in our US business as we exited the quarter.

    我們在重新定位國際業務方面的成功,加上美國早期的進展,使我們有信心在北美取得同樣的成功。重要的是,最近的業績令人鼓舞,因為在本季結束時,我們美國業務的消費和市佔率表現均有所增強。

  • There's more to do, but I'm confident that we are on the right track in North America, and I believe we'll see continued sequential topline improvement in the second half of this year. So this leads me to our outlook for the full year. Underpinning our view for the second half of our fiscal year is the belief that the uncertainty of the macro environment will increasingly be felt by the consumer, dampening confidence and ultimately negatively impacting spending behaviors.

    還有很多工作要做,但我相信我們在北美市場走在正確的軌道上,我相信今年下半年我們的營收將繼續環比成長。這讓我對全年的展望有了新的體會。我們對下半年財年的看法是基於這樣的信念:消費者將越來越感受到宏觀環境的不確定性,從而削弱信心,最終對消費行為產生負面影響。

  • We are already seeing this impact in travel and leisure spend, which we anticipate will impact our Sun Care category, both in the US and in key tourism markets internationally. Therefore, we've adjusted our topline outlook to reflect a more modest expectation for consumption across categories and most notably in Sun Care.

    我們已經看到這種影響對旅遊和休閒支出的影響,我們預計這將影響我們的防曬產品類別,無論是在美國還是在國際主要旅遊市場。因此,我們調整了營業額預期,以反映對各類別消費(尤其是防曬護理)較為溫和的預期。

  • On the bottom line, our revised outlook includes the impact of this lower sales growth, increased brand investments in North America and the estimated impact of incremental costs associated with tariffs, which Dan will discuss shortly.

    總的來說,我們修改後的展望包括銷售成長放緩的影響、北美品牌投資增加以及與關稅相關的增量成本的預期影響,丹將很快對此進行討論。

  • So in summary, the backdrop notwithstanding, I am pleased with the progress we are making across our business. We have more work to do in North America, but I'm convinced that we have the leadership in place to execute the needed change successfully. We believe our strategic priorities and near-term actions will further our ongoing transformation and fortify the business for the longer term.

    總而言之,無論背景如何,我對我們的業務所取得的進展感到滿意。我們在北美還有很多工作要做,但我相信我們有足夠的領導力來成功實施所需的變革。我們相信,我們的策略重點和近期行動將進一步推動我們正在進行的轉型並鞏固長期業務。

  • And now, I'd like to ask Dan to take you through our operational and commercial performance highlights in the quarter. Dan?

    現在,我想請丹向您介紹我們本季的營運和商業業績亮點。擔?

  • Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

  • Thanks, Rod. Good morning, everyone. Before discussing performance in the quarter, let me start by sharing perspective on the broader operating environment. The macroeconomic environment is evolving fast with increasing pressure on the consumer.

    謝謝,羅德。大家早安。在討論本季的業績之前,我首先想分享一下對更廣泛的營運環境的看法。宏觀經濟環境快速變化,消費者壓力不斷增加。

  • Consumer confidence has dropped since we last met, and we've started to see the implications as consumption levels have slowed, promotional levels have increased, including in certain international markets, and there are growing signs of broader consumer caution that is likely to increase in the near term.

    自從我們上次會面以來,消費者信心已經下降,我們已經開始看到其影響,因為消費水平已經放緩,促銷水平已經提高,包括在某些國際市場,而且有越來越多的跡象表明,消費者的謹慎情緒在短期內可能會加劇。

  • The topic of tariffs and in many ways, the uncertainty of specific policy in this area has served as the catalyst for this challenging environment for consumers, while also causing added strain on sourcing and global supply chain functions. The in-year cost impact of tariffs for fiscal 2025 contemplated in our outlook is estimated to be approximately $3 million to $4 million and assumes current tariff rates hold for the balance of the year, and there are no material changes in the inbound or outbound flow of materials and finished goods.

    關稅問題以及該領域具體政策的不確定性,在許多方面成為消費者面臨挑戰的催化劑,同時也為採購和全球供應鏈功能帶來了額外的壓力。我們預計,2025財年關稅對年度成本的影響約為300萬至400萬美元,並假設當前關稅稅率在當年餘額內保持不變,且材料和成品的進出流量沒有重大變化。

  • The impact of tariffs on COGS is seen across three dimensions. The first relates to the procurement of raw materials imported to the US and most notably related to sun chemicals, aluminum and steel and certain wovens and fibers. Our global procurement organization has been very active exploring alternatives, including identifying alternative sourcing locations and the negotiation of tariff splits with suppliers, and this work continues with urgency.

    關稅對銷貨成本的影響體現在三個方面。第一個涉及採購進口到美國的原料,最主要的是涉及太陽化學品、鋁和鋼以及某些織物和纖維。我們的全球採購組織一直在積極探索替代方案,包括確定替代採購地點以及與供應商協商關稅分攤,這項工作仍在緊急進行中。

  • We're also subject to import tariffs related to the inbound shipment of finished goods to the US, mostly related to certain Wet Shave products. And finally, in terms of responsive tariffs, the primary impact is mostly associated with the shipment of finished goods from the US to Canada across the Wet Shave and Sun and Skin segments.

    我們還需要繳納與美國進口成品相關的進口關稅,這些成品主要與某些濕剃產品有關。最後,就響應性關稅而言,主要影響主要與從美國到加拿大的濕剃和防曬及​​皮膚護理領域的成品運輸有關。

  • While the impact of tariffs in fiscal 2025 is modest, in part due to our efforts to quickly mitigate some of the near-term impacts through inventory prebuys and other supply chain actions as well as the in-year benefit of costs trapped in inventory, the tariff landscape remains highly uncertain and at current levels, tariffs would have a more material impact on an annualized basis.

    雖然關稅對 2025 財年的影響不大,部分原因是我們努力透過庫存預購和其他供應鏈行動來迅速緩解一些短期影響,以及利用庫存成本在年內帶來的好處,但關稅形勢仍然高度不確定,在目前的水平上,關稅將對年度化產生更為重大的影響。

  • We will continue to explore all of the opportunities to mitigate the potential impact of tariffs with a continued focus on productivity while also considering some level of consumer pricing in certain markets and categories.

    我們將繼續探索所有機會來減輕關稅的潛在影響,並繼續專注於生產力,同時也考慮某些市場和類別的一定程度的消費者定價。

  • In the quarter, the dollar weakened further than expected, providing some relief for our P&L, though its direction from here remains difficult to project. Commodity costs in the (inaudible) are relatively unchanged with upward pressure from supply constraints for aluminum and pulps, mostly offset by softness in resins as oil and natural gas prices moderate.

    本季度,美元的疲軟程度超出預期,為我們的損益帶來了一些緩解,儘管其未來的走向仍然難以預測。由於鋁和紙漿供應受限,大宗商品成本相對沒有變化,但石油和天然氣價格溫和上漲,樹脂價格疲軟,抵消了影響。

  • Across our manufacturing footprint, the labor environment remains mostly stable with limited added sequential wage pressure from last quarter. Now let's move to the commercial and operational highlights for Q2.

    在我們的製造業中,勞動力環境基本上保持穩定,與上一季相比,薪資壓力的增加有限。現在讓我們來看看第二季的商業和營運亮點。

  • Commercial execution in the quarter centered around our innovation platform with notable launches across our international markets, where we brought the Billie brand to Australia, deployed the new mini razor in Europe, expanded our Sun Care presence on shelf in Mexico and deepened our penetration in the male grooming categories through Bulldog range expansion and the launch of the Protista brand in Japan.

    本季的商業執行圍繞著我們的創新平台展開,並在國際市場上推出了引人注目的產品,我們將 Billie 品牌帶到了澳大利亞,在歐洲部署了新的迷你剃須刀,擴大了我們在墨西哥貨架上的防曬產品,並通過擴大 Bulldog 系列和在日本推出 Protista 品牌加深了我們在男性美容類別的滲透。

  • More broadly, we remain focused on retail execution and the new shelf sets in the US. Promotional effectiveness improved in the quarter. And in certain international markets, we initiated select price increases. Overall, the teams continued to perform very well in a dynamic and challenging environment. Organic net sales decreased 1.5% in the quarter.

    更廣泛地說,我們仍然專注於美國的零售執行和新貨架。本季促銷效果提升。在某些國際市場,我們啟動了選擇性漲價。整體而言,在充滿活力和挑戰的環境中,各團隊繼續表現得非常出色。本季有機淨銷售額下降 1.5%。

  • Growth in international markets continued with the 3% organic growth driven by both price and volume gains. This represents our 12th growth quarter in the last 13. Double-digit organic growth in Greater China and mid single-digit growth in both Japan and Europe fueled our results.

    國際市場持續成長,在價格和銷售上漲的推動下,有機成長率達到 3%。這是我們過去 13 個季度中第 12 次實現成長。大中華區的兩位數有機成長以及日本和歐洲的中等個位數成長推動了我們的表現。

  • And market share performance was strong with noteworthy gains across Wet Shave in Greater China, both Shave and Sun in Latin America and Grooming and Sun in Europe. Organic sales in North America declined about 4%, reflecting declines in Sun due to Easter holiday timing and poor weather as well as across disposables, Shave Preps and Fem Care.

    市佔率表現強勁,大中華區的濕剃、拉丁美洲的剃鬚和防曬、歐洲的美容和防曬均有顯著成長。北美地區的有機銷售額下降了約 4%,反映出由於復活節假期和惡劣天氣導致 Sun 銷售額下降,以及一次性用品、刮鬍用品和女性護理用品銷售額下降。

  • Now turning to segment performance. Wet Shave organic net sales were down about 1%. International Wet Shave grew 3% with both price and volume gains, reflecting continued category health, good innovation execution and strong in-market brand activation.

    現在轉向細分市場表現。濕剃有機淨銷售額下降約 1%。國際濕剃產品價格和銷售量均上漲,成長了 3%,反映出該品類持續健康發展、創新執行良好以及市場品牌活化度強勁。

  • In Japan, new product innovation supported mid-single-digit organic growth in the market while in China our double-digit growth was underpinned by strong digital execution and included the launch of the Schick First Tokyo product in Taiwan.

    在日本,新產品創新支撐了市場中個位數的有機成長,而在中國,我們的兩位數成長得益於強大的數位化執行力,包括在台灣推出 Schick First Tokyo 產品。

  • Our private brands business remained a meaningful competitive advantage and source of growth, posting mid-single-digit gains fueled in part by new business across many key retailers, including Aldi and Lidl. Our women's private brands branded business grew almost 50% internationally despite cycling over 60% growth a year ago.

    我們的自有品牌業務仍然具有顯著的競爭優勢和成長源泉,實現了中等個位數成長,部分原因是許多主要零售商(包括 Aldi 和 Lidl)的新業務。儘管一年前我們的女性自有品牌業務成長率超過 60%,但今年國際市場成長了近 50%。

  • In North America, Wet Shave organic net sales declined above 5% as gains in women's systems were more than offset by declines in Shave Preps, Men's Systems and Disposables. Consumption in the US razors and blades category was down 30 basis points in the quarter with continued heightened declines in the direct channel.

    在北美,濕剃有機淨銷售額下降超過 5%,因為女士剃須系統的增幅被剃須前產品、男士剃須系統和一次性用品的降幅所抵消。本季度,美國刮鬍刀和刀片類別的消費量下降了 30 個基點,直接通路的降幅持續增加。

  • Our market share decreased 90 basis points for the quarter, and we saw solid results in women's systems with meaningful gains for the Billie brand on shelf, gaining an additional 190 basis points in market share and now standing at a 15% share of the category at Walmart, 14% share at target and over an 11% share nationally.

    本季度我們的市佔率下降了 90 個基點,我們在女性產品系統方面取得了穩健的業績,Billie 品牌的貨架銷量取得了顯著增長,市場份額又增加了 190 個基點,目前在沃爾瑪的市場份額為 15%,在塔吉特的市場份額為 14%,在全國範圍內的市場份額超過 11%。

  • Importantly, Billie continues to have the number one SKU in women's refills in units and is the number two brand in dollars across the top five retailer landscape. Our women's disposable business returned to share gains in the quarter, in large part a result of the new Skintimate rebranding.

    重要的是,Billie 繼續擁有女性補充裝中數量最多的 SKU,並且是前五大零售商中銷售排名第二的品牌。本季度,我們的女性一次性用品業務恢復了市場份額成長,這在很大程度上是 Skintimate 全新品牌重塑的結果。

  • Sun and skin care organic net sales were essentially flat as double-digit growth in Skin and high single-digit growth in grooming were more than offset by declines in North America Sun, primarily a result of order phasing associated with the Easter shift, poor weather and lapping double-digit growth a year ago.

    防曬和護膚品有機淨銷售額基本持平,因為護膚品的兩位數增長和美容品的高個位數增長被北美防曬品的下滑所抵消,這主要是由於復活節期間訂單分階段減少、惡劣天氣以及去年同期兩位數的增長放緩所致。

  • In the US, Sun Care category consumption decreased 1 point in the quarter. Our total market share was down 60 basis points, a reflection of strong gains for Hawaiian Tropic, offset by a decline in Banana Boat. Hawaiian Tropic's full point of share growth was the most in the top 10 brands in the set, reflecting velocity and distribution gains as well as impactful NPD.

    在美國,防曬品類的消費量在本季下降了 1 個百分點。我們的總市佔率下降了 60 個基點,這反映出 Hawaiian Tropic 的強勁成長,但被 Banana Boat 的下滑所抵消。Hawaiian Tropic 的市佔率增幅在前 10 個品牌中最高,反映了速度和分銷的成長以及有影響力的新產品開發。

  • Incrementally investing behind this brand in half two to accelerate its momentum on shelf is a core component of our plans, and I'll speak more about this shortly. Share losses in Banana Boat were largely driven by sluggish performance at Costco and Target, in part due to year-over-year shifts in the brand's promotional calendar.

    在下半年逐步投資該品牌以加速其上架勢頭是我們計劃的核心組成部分,我將很快詳細介紹這一點。Banana Boat 的市佔率下降主要是因為 Costco 和 Target 的表現不佳,而部分原因則是因為該品牌的促銷日程逐年變動。

  • In international markets, we saw notable value and volume market share gains in Mexico and several key European markets and ended the season well in Australia, where we hold share in a growing category. Grooming organic net sales increased 9% in the quarter, most notably led by 20% organic net sales growth for CREMO.

    在國際市場上,我們在墨西哥和幾個主要的歐洲市場的價值和銷售市場份額均顯著增長,並在澳大利亞以良好的成績結束了本賽季,我們在該市場所佔份額不斷增長。本季度,美容有機淨銷售額成長了 9%,其中最顯著的是 CREMO 有機淨銷售額成長了 20%。

  • Our new [sense care] campaign for the brand continues to resonate with the anti-perspirant deodorant launches and body wash expansions driving incremental distribution on shelf and good initial consumption results.

    我們為該品牌推出的全新[感官護理]活動繼續與止汗除臭劑的推出和沐浴露的擴展產生共鳴,推動了貨架上的增量分銷和良好的初始消費結果。

  • Wet Ones organic net sales increased 15% for the second consecutive quarter, fueled by better in-stock positions, and our share was approximately 68%. Fem Care organic net sales were down approximately 9%. The decline was largely driven by tampons and pads.

    受庫存狀況改善的推動,Wet Ones 有機淨銷售額連續第二季成長 15%,我們的市佔率約為 68%。Fem Care 有機淨銷售額下降約 9%。下降的主要原因是衛生棉條和衛生棉。

  • Consumption in the category was up 3%, though driven by over 6% growth in pads where our penetration is the lowest. In the categories where we primarily compete, tampons and liners, consumption was down approximately 2% and up 1%, respectively.

    該類別的消費量增加了 3%,但成長主要受到滲透率最低的衛生棉超過 6% 的成長所推動。在我們主要競爭的類別中,衛生棉條和護墊的消費量分別下降了約 2% 和上升了 1%。

  • Activating our Carefree master brand strategy remains our focus. And while we are encouraged by early results, we also recognize that this will take more time as we drive awareness and ultimately conversion. Importantly, in the quarter, we saw strong share gains for Carefree pads in both Walmart and across drug.

    啟動我們的 Carefree 主品牌策略仍然是我們的重點。雖然我們對早期的成果感到鼓舞,但我們也意​​識到,這需要更多的時間,因為我們需要提高知名度並最終轉化。重要的是,在本季度,我們看到 Carefree 衛生棉在沃爾瑪和整個藥局的份額均強勁增長。

  • Turning to our operational performance. Q2 was an excellent quarter, reflecting a step-up in realized productivity savings and further strengthening of our service levels across the markets. Productivity savings were 380 basis points and provided the tailwinds for our 110 basis points constant currency gross margin accretion in the quarter.

    談到我們的營運表現。第二季度表現優異,體現出生產力節約的提升以及我們在整個市場的服務水準的進一步加強。生產力節省了 380 個基點,為我們本季 110 個基點的恆定貨幣毛利率成長提供了順風。

  • Productivity savings did include the pull forward of certain onetime benefits associated with global contract negotiations and otherwise were realized from a full collection of programs, including global sourcing and indirect savings, labor automation and broader plant efficiency efforts.

    生產力節約確實包括與全球合約談判相關的某些一次性福利的提前實現,並且是透過一系列計劃實現的,包括全球採購和間接節約、勞動力自動化和更廣泛的工廠效率努力。

  • Importantly, in the face of a more challenging global supply chain environment, we sustained our strong service performance from a quarter ago and saw unit fill rates and OTIF measures above target levels across most categories and markets. Importantly, we further executed our plans to mitigate the negative effects of global tariffs, successfully buying forward and unlocking alternative sourcing options for key raw materials.

    重要的是,面對更具挑戰性的全球供應鏈環境,我們維持了一個季度前的強勁服務表現,並且大多數類別和市場的單位填充率和 OTIF 指標都高於目標水準。重要的是,我們進一步執行了減輕全球關稅負面影響的計劃,成功地進行了預購併解鎖了關鍵原材料的替代採購選擇。

  • And finally, let me provide some further perspective on the investment stance reflected in our outlook. As you heard Rod discuss, we think this is an important moment to take steps to begin to restore momentum in our North America business.

    最後,讓我進一步闡述我們展望中所反映的投資立場。正如您所聽到的羅德所討論的,我們認為這是採取措施開始恢復北美業務勢頭的重要時刻。

  • In Q3, we are, therefore, leaning in across Sun Care and Women's Shave building on recent success and leveraging seasonality tailwinds that offer near-term opportunity. The first area of focus is in support of the Hawaiian Tropic brand, which, as I mentioned earlier, is delivering outsized consumption and share growth and remains a critical component of our portfolio strategy in Sun Care.

    因此,在第三季度,我們將在近期成功的基礎上,大力發展防曬護理和女士剃須產品,並利用季節性順風來提供短期機會。第一個重點領域是支持夏威夷熱帶品牌,正如我之前提到的,該品牌正在實現超額的消費和份額成長,並且仍然是我們防曬產品組合策略的重要組成部分。

  • In time for the start of the season, we have finalized a new campaign that will be the largest investment for the brand in the US in the last five years, supported by a heavy-up digital media plan, in-store shopper programs and promotional efforts to drive enhanced feature and display activation.

    在季節開始之際,我們完成了一項新的活動,這將是該品牌過去五年來在美國最大的投資,並得到了大量數位媒體計劃、店內購物者計劃和促銷活動的支持,以推動增強的功能和展示激活。

  • The campaign will feature leading influencer, Alix Earle, who has proven credentials for driving brands, particularly with Gen Z cohorts and will ensure that we maximize the impact and prominence on social media.

    活動將邀請著名影響者 Alix Earle 擔任嘉賓,她擁有推動品牌發展的資質,尤其是在 Z 世代群體中,並將確保我們最大限度地發揮社交媒體的影響力和知名度。

  • The second area of focus is our Women's Shave branded systems and disposable portfolios. For our disposables business, we will launch the Billie brand disposable and relaunch Skintimate disposables as part of a category refresh perfectly timed to a likely more cost-conscious shopper.

    第二個重點領域是我們的女性刮鬍子品牌系統和一次性產品組合。對於我們的一次性用品業務,我們將推出 Billie 品牌一次性用品,並重新推出 Skintimate 一次性用品,作為品類更新的一部分,恰逢可能更注重成本的購物者。

  • For our branded women's business, we will support the recent repackaging efforts for Hydro Silk with a national media plan, strong social media activation, enhanced retailer media and increased in-store promotional activity to reignite trial on the brand as we enter the crucial summer peak season for women's shave.

    對於我們的品牌女性業務,我們將透過全國媒體計劃、強大的社交媒體激活、增強的零售商媒體和增加的店內促銷活動來支持 Hydro Silk 最近的重新包裝工作,以便在我們進入女性剃須的關鍵夏季旺季時重新點燃對該品牌的嘗試。

  • In support of these exciting programs, we will incrementally invest above and below the line in the third quarter, adding just over 1 point in A&P investment rate of sale to the total company profile. In summary, we've developed strong brand campaigns that we believe we can execute through the line and that will solidify near-term performance and serve as important foundations for the brands moving forward.

    為了支持這些令人興奮的項目,我們將在第三季逐步增加線上和線下的投資,為整個公司形象增加略高於 1 個百分點的 A&P 投資銷售率。總而言之,我們已經制定了強大的品牌活動,我們相信我們可以透過整個產品線來執行,這將鞏固近期業績,並為品牌未來發展奠定重要基礎。

  • Now let me turn it over to Fran to discuss the financial results for the quarter and our full year outlook.

    現在,讓我將主題交給 Fran,討論本季的財務表現和全年展望。

  • Francesca Weissman - Chief Financial Officer

    Francesca Weissman - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Dan. Good morning, everyone. Let's jump into a quick review of the second quarter, followed by our updated outlook for fiscal '25. As previously discussed, organic net sales decreased 1.5%. International growth of 3%, driven by both price and volume gains was more than offset by a 4% decline in North America due to lower volumes in (inaudible) Wet Shave and Sun Care.

    謝謝你,丹。大家早安。讓我們快速回顧一下第二季度,然後更新 25 財年的展望。如前所述,有機淨銷售額下降了 1.5%。在價格和銷售上漲的推動下,國際市場實現了 3% 的成長,但北美市場因(聽不清楚)濕剃和防曬產品銷量下降而出現 4% 的下滑,這抵消了國際市場的這一增長。

  • Adjusted gross margin rate increased 100 basis points and increased approximately 110 basis points in constant currency, exceeding our expectations. We realized approximately 380 basis points of productivity savings, which was partially offset by 195 basis points of core growth inflation and volume absorption and 85 basis points of unfavorable mix and increased trade promotions in North America.

    調整後的毛利率增加了100個基點,以固定匯率計算增加了約110個基點,超出了我們的預期。我們實現了約 380 個基點的生產力節約,但部分被核心增長通膨和數量吸收的 195 個基點以及北美不利組合和增加的貿易促銷的 85 個基點所抵消。

  • A&P expenses were 11.3% of net sales, up from 10.5% last year. Adjusted SG&A was 18% in rate of sales, up approximately 60 basis points versus last year. This increase was due to higher people costs and lower net sales in the quarter with a partial offset from favorable currency impacts.

    廣告宣傳費用佔淨銷售額的 11.3%,高於去年的 10.5%。調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售率的 18%,比去年同期上升了約 60 個基點。這一增長是由於本季度人力成本增加和淨銷售額下降,但部分抵消了有利的貨幣影響。

  • Adjusted operating income was $77 million compared to $81 million last year. Adjusted operating margin decreased 30 basis points, almost entirely due to the net unfavorable impact from currency. On a constant currency basis, adjusted operating margin was flat despite the incremental brand investments and impact of lower sales, driven by our strong gross margin accretion.

    調整後的營業收入為 7,700 萬美元,而去年同期為 8,100 萬美元。調整後的營業利潤率下降了 30 個基點,幾乎完全是由於貨幣的淨不利影響。以固定匯率計算,儘管品牌投資增加且銷售額下降帶來的影響,但由於毛利率強勁增長,調整後的營業利潤率保持穩定。

  • GAAP diluted net earnings per share were $0.60 compared to $0.72 in the second quarter of fiscal '24. And adjusted earnings per share were $0.87 compared to $0.88 in the prior year quarter, inclusive of a higher-than-anticipated effective tax rate, which resulted in a $0.06 headwind to EPS in the quarter.

    以美國通用會計準則計算,每股攤薄淨收益為 0.60 美元,而 24 財年第二季為 0.72 美元。調整後每股收益為 0.87 美元,而去年同期為 0.88 美元,其中包括高於預期的有效稅率,導致本季每股收益下降 0.06 美元。

  • Currency movements had no impact on adjusted EPS in the quarter as translational currency headwinds to operating profit were largely offset by favorable transactional currency and higher year-over-year hedge and balance sheet remeasurement gains within other income and expense.

    貨幣變動對本季調整後每股盈餘沒有影響,因為折算貨幣對營業利潤的不利影響在很大程度上被有利的交易貨幣以及其他收入和支出中更高的同比對沖和資產負債表重估收益所抵消。

  • Adjusted EBITDA was $99.3 million with minimal unfavorable currency impact compared to $99.7 million in the prior year. Net cash used by operating activities was $70.5 million for the quarter compared to cash flow provided from operating activities of $56.1 million in the prior year.

    調整後的 EBITDA 為 9,930 萬美元,與去年同期的 9,970 萬美元相比,貨幣的不利影響極小。本季經營活動所用淨現金為 7,050 萬美元,而去年經營活動提供的現金流量為 5,610 萬美元。

  • Shifts in seasonal inventory builds and other working capital timing in addition to lower earnings versus last year drove the heightened use of cash in the quarter. We ended the quarter with $170 million in cash on hand access to the $229 million undrawn portion of our credit facility and a net debt leverage ratio of 3.8 times.

    季節性庫存增加和其他營運資本時間的變化,加上與去年相比利潤較低,導致本季現金使用增加。本季末,我們手頭上有 1.7 億美元現金,可以使用 2.29 億美元未提取的信貸額度部分,淨債務槓桿率為 3.8 倍。

  • In the quarter, share repurchases totaled $35 million. We continued our quarterly dividend payout and declared another cash dividend of $0.15 per share for the second quarter. In total, we returned $43 million to shareholders during the quarter.

    本季度,股票回購總額為 3,500 萬美元。我們繼續派發季度股息,並宣布第二季再發放每股 0.15 美元的現金股息。總體而言,本季我們向股東返還了 4,300 萬美元。

  • Now turning to our outlook for fiscal '25. As Ron and Dan mentioned earlier, while we are pleased with the operational execution by the teams across many areas of the business, we have updated our outlook for the year to reflect half-one performance and a more moderated growth profile for the second half of the year as well as the financial impact of increased brand investments in the US and additional tariff headwinds.

    現在來談談我們對 25 財年的展望。正如 Ron 和 Dan 先前提到的,雖然我們對各個業務領域團隊的營運執行情況感到滿意,但我們已更新了今年的展望,以反映上半年的業績和下半年更為溫和的增長態勢,以及美國品牌投資增加和額外關稅阻力帶來的財務影響。

  • For the fiscal year, we now anticipate organic net sales growth to be in the range of flat to 1%. This is primarily reflective of the slightly lower consumption trends in half two across all segments than was previously anticipated, most notably in US Sun Care as well as a prolonged recovery in our Fem Care portfolio.

    對於本財年,我們目前預計有機淨銷售額成長率將在持平至 1% 之間。這主要反映了所有細分市場的消費趨勢略低於先前的預期,最明顯的是美國防曬護理市場,以及女性護理產品組合的長期復甦。

  • We expect sequential improvement across half two with third quarter net sales now estimated to be up approximately 1% and half two net sales now expected to be up approximately 2%. On a reported basis, currency is now expected to negatively impact full year reported sales by 10 basis points versus our prior expectation of a negative 160 basis points impact.

    我們預計下半年淨銷售額將較上季改善,目前估計第三季淨銷售額將成長約 1%,下半年淨銷售額將成長約 2%。據報道,目前預計貨幣將對全年報告銷售額產生負面影響 10 個基點,而我們先前預期的影響為負面 160 個基點。

  • On a constant currency basis, our outlook reflects adjusted gross margin accretion of 70 basis points for full year gross margin rate, down slightly from our previous outlook, driven primarily by the impact of incremental tariffs.

    以固定匯率計算,我們的展望反映出全年毛利率調整後將成長 70 個基點,略低於我們先前的展望,主要受增量關稅的影響。

  • On a reported basis, full year gross margin improvement is now 10 basis points versus prior year, which also includes a 60 basis point impact of transactional currency, an increase of 25 basis points over our prior outlook.

    據報道,全年毛利率較上年同期提高 10 個基點,其中還包括交易貨幣的 60 個基點的影響,比我們之前的預期高出 25 個基點。

  • While we expect half two gross margin to be flat to prior year, we now expect Q3 to be down approximately 100 basis points, reflecting the impact of tariffs, higher promotional investment in North America and incremental transactional currency headwinds. As a reminder, the outlook that we provided last quarter did not reflect the potential negative impact from US or retaliatory tariffs given the rapidly evolving nature at that time.

    雖然我們預計第二季的毛利率將與去年持平,但我們現在預計第三季的毛利率將下降約 100 個基點,這反映了關稅、北美促銷投資增加以及交易貨幣逆風增加的影響。提醒一下,考慮到當時情況的快速變化,我們上個季度提供的展望並未反映出美國或報復性關稅可能帶來的負面影響。

  • We now expect tariffs to have an incremental impact of approximately $3 million to $4 million to our cost of goods sold in the fiscal year. Our outlook does not include tariffs that have been announced and delayed, which could result in additional costs incurred if implemented or if additional tariffs are announced.

    我們現在預計關稅將對我們本財年的銷售成本產生約 300 萬至 400 萬美元的增量影響。我們的展望不包括已經宣布和推遲的關稅,這些關稅如果實施或宣布額外關稅,可能會導致額外的成本。

  • Our teams are reacting with urgency to mitigate the potential impact from tariffs, including evaluating sourcing alternatives, opportunistic purchase timing and strategic revenue management. We also expect full year operating profit margin to be down approximately 60 basis points, inclusive of 50 basis points of currency headwinds.

    我們的團隊正在緊急採取反應,以減輕關稅的潛在影響,包括評估採購替代方案、機會性採購時機和策略性收入管理。我們也預計全年營業利潤率將下降約 60 個基點,其中包括 50 個基點的貨幣逆風影響。

  • We expect half two operating profit margins to be down approximately 50 basis points and now expect Q3 to be down approximately 230 basis points, reflecting lower gross margin, higher A&P expense and currency headwinds.

    我們預計第二季營業利潤率將下降約 50 個基點,目前預計第三季營業利潤率將下降約 230 個基點,這反映了毛利率下降、廣告宣傳費用增加以及貨幣逆風。

  • Given these changes, full year adjusted earnings per share are now anticipated to be in the range of $2.85 to $3.05, inclusive of approximately $0.35 per share of currency headwinds. Adjusted EBITDA is also now expected to be in the range of $329 million to $341 million, inclusive of approximately $22 million in currency headwinds.

    鑑於這些變化,預計全年調整後每股收益將在 2.85 美元至 3.05 美元之間,其中包括每股約 0.35 美元的貨幣不利因素。調整後的 EBITDA 預計目前將在 3.29 億美元至 3.41 億美元之間,其中包括約 2,200 萬美元的貨幣逆風影響。

  • The updated outlook for adjusted EPS also reflects a slightly lower full year adjusted effective tax rate of 20% compared to 22% in our prior outlook. As a result, we now expect adjusted net earnings on a dollar basis to be similar in both third and fourth quarters.

    更新後的調整後每股盈餘展望也反映出全年調整後有效稅率略低於我們先前展望的 22%,為 20%。因此,我們現在預計第三季和第四季以美元計算的調整後淨收益將相似。

  • Free cash flow for the full year is now expected to be approximately in the range of $130 million to $140 million, reflective of lower earnings, higher inventory levels as a result of the uncertain external environment and tariffs included in our outlook. For more information related to our fiscal '25 outlook, I would refer you to the press release that we issued earlier this morning.

    目前預計全年自由現金流約為 1.3 億美元至 1.4 億美元,這反映了由於不確定的外部環境和關稅導致的收益下降、庫存水準上升。有關我們 25 財年展望的更多信息,請參閱我們今天早上發布的新聞稿。

  • And now I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for the Q&A session.

    現在我想將電話轉給接線員進行問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

    (操作員指示)巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

  • Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

    Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just to start on tariffs, unfortunately, I'm sorry to do this, but just was wondering if you could help a little bit more with you went through, there's a portion that's raw materials, there's a portion that's finished goods and there's a portion that's US into Canada.

    偉大的。謝謝。大家早安。首先談談關稅問題,很遺憾,我很抱歉這樣做,但我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多幫助,您經歷過的關稅有一部分是原材料,一部分是成品,還有一部分是從美國到加拿大的。

  • Anything you can do to dimensionalize for us how large those buckets are? Because I know that the outlook does not include currently paused tariffs and also for us to just maybe start estimating what we should be folding into our models in a preliminary sense for fiscal '26 or even just thinking about gross impact and then we can try to take some judgment on what you're going to be able to do through mitigation efforts. Thanks.

    您能做些什麼來幫助我們確定這些桶子有多大嗎?因為我知道前景並不包括目前暫停的關稅,而且我們可能只是開始估計我們應該在 26 財年的初步意義上將哪些內容納入我們的模型中,或者甚至只是考慮總體影響,然後我們可以嘗試對你將能夠通過緩解措施做些什麼做出一些判斷。謝謝。

  • Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. Good morning. It's Dan. Thanks for the question on tariffs. Let me try to clarify a few things. So let's talk first the in-year impact this year because I think it's important to get that right. So we have a line of sight based on everything we know, everything that's currently in that we estimate the impact this year will be $3 million to $4 million, most of it hitting in the fourth quarter.

    是的。早安.是丹。感謝您提出有關關稅的問題。讓我嘗試澄清一些事情。因此,我們首先來談談今年的年度影響,因為我認為正確理解這一點很重要。因此,根據我們所知道的一切,根據目前的情況,我們估計今年的影響將達到 300 萬至 400 萬美元,其中大部分將在第四季度產生。

  • And the way that I would think about that is that's roughly two months released if you factor in inventory levels and the like. That also means there's tariff costs that we will incur this year that will get released next year as the inventory flows through. But the in-year impact, that's the basis for the $3 million to $4 million.

    我認為,如果將庫存水準等因素考慮在內,那麼大約需要兩個月的時間才能釋放。這也意味著我們今年將產生的關稅成本將在明年隨著庫存的流出而釋放。但就年度影響而言,這是 300 萬至 400 萬美元的基礎。

  • Now let's talk more broadly on tariffs. You're right. There are essentially three areas here. There's procured products, procured raw materials coming into the US. There's finished goods coming into the US, largely from China. And then there is finished goods manufactured in the US, going out to other markets. That's largely Canada.

    現在讓我們更廣泛地談論關稅。你說得對。這裡主要有三個領域。採購的產品和原料都進入了美國。進入美國的成品主要來自中國。然後,美國生產的成品就會銷往其他市場。這主要是加拿大。

  • We manufacture the products that we sell in Canada here in the US. The good news is for the most part, location of manufacturing and location of sales are fairly well lined up for our business, which is why the impact here overall isn't necessarily as material as you might see in other places.

    我們在美國生產在加拿大銷售的產品。好消息是,在大多數情況下,我們的業務的製造地點和銷售地點都相當匹配,這就是為什麼這裡的整體影響不一定像你在其他地方看到的那樣重大。

  • So that would all lead to our best estimate would suggest we have an annualized exposure of 3% to 4% of COGS. Now I think what's important is two things. One is just to put that into context, that would essentially mean 1.5 to 2 points of margin pressure, if you just use rough math.

    因此,我們的最佳估計是,我們的年化風險敞口為 3% 至 4% 的 COGS。現在我認為重要的是兩件事。一是將其放在上下文中,如果只是粗略計算,這基本上意味著 1.5 到 2 個點的利潤壓力。

  • And as a reminder, we routinely take out about 250 basis points in productivity savings in any given year. So just order of magnitude how to think about that. I think more importantly, what are we doing about it, we are running fast on all areas. There's great work happening in procurement where we think about alternative sourcing that would provide structural offsets.

    提醒一下,我們每年通常會從生產力節約中扣除約 250 個基點。那麼,如何從數量級來考慮這個問題呢?我認為更重要的是,我們正在做什麼,我們在各個領域都在快速奔跑。我們在採購方面取得了很大的進展,我們考慮尋找可以提供結構性補償的替代採購方式。

  • There's work looking at manufacturing and flow of product where we can clean up any potential impacts where we do have manufactured product outside of the markets where we sell. So the team is running fast at that. We're not going to attempt to quantify that today as the topic is just too volatile.

    我們正在研究產品的製造和流動,以便消除我們在銷售市場之外生產產品時可能產生的影響。因此,該團隊正在快速發展。由於這個主題太不穩定,我們今天不會嘗試量化這一點。

  • But I do want everyone to know it is a priority and the team is working hard at it. And as the topic becomes more clear and as these tariff policies become more clear, we'll certainly update everyone on our thinking. But again, broad impact, 3% to 4% of exposure and then obviously, team going to work hard at offset to that.

    但我確實希望每個人都知道這是一個優先事項,並且團隊正在為此努力。隨著主題變得更加清晰,隨著這些關稅政策變得更加清晰,我們一定會向大家更新我們的想法。但同樣,廣泛的影響,3%到4%的曝光率,然後顯然,團隊會努力抵消這一點。

  • Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Operator, next question, please.

    接線員,請問下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Grom, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. I was hoping to get some color on the second half organic sales growth. And I guess what I'm really trying to understand is just the level of confidence in the implied acceleration.

    謝謝,接線生。大家早安。我希望了解下半年有機銷售成長的情況。我想我真正想了解的只是對隱含加速度的信心程度。

  • So maybe first, can you just unpack what you expect specifically from the US versus maybe international in the back half here? And then I guess just related, just some perspective in terms of what you are anticipating from a category growth perspective.

    那麼首先,您能否解釋一下您對後半部美國和國際市場的具體期望?然後我想這只是相關的,只是從類別成長角度對您所期望的一些觀點。

  • I know you mentioned some moderating consumption in the back half of the year. So just trying to understand how you build to that improved growth outlook in the back half. You mentioned improved execution and market share. But if category trends remain challenged or potentially get worse, how realistic is this implied acceleration? Thanks.

    我知道您提到了下半年消費放緩。所以只是想了解如何實現下半年改善的成長前景。您提到了執行力和市場份額的提高。但如果類別趨勢仍然面臨挑戰或可能變得更糟,這種隱含的加速有多現實?謝謝。

  • Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. Hey, Peter. Good morning, it's Dan. Let me try to unpack that. I think the essence of your question at the start was confidence in half two. So let me tell you how we thought about it and how we built it. So right now, we end half one with a minus 1.5% organic growth for the business, and we have a half two profile of plus 2%.

    是的。嘿,彼得。早上好,我是丹。讓我試著解釋一下。我認為你一開始的問題的本質是對第二部分的信心。那麼讓我來告訴你我們是如何思考它以及如何建構它的。因此,目前,上半年我們的業務有機成長率為-1.5%,而下半年則為+2%。

  • So rough math, you're looking at a 3% to 4% -- 3 to 4 point change in trend. There's a couple of things contributing to this. There are some transitory tailwinds, and let me take those first. You've got the benefit of the Easter shift, which falls into the half two of the year. That's worth about 1 point. And you've got the benefit of cycling some supply disruptions a year ago, you might recall Wet Ones, Preps, certain grooming products. We've sized that up to be about 0.5 point of tailwind.

    因此粗略計算,您會看到 3% 到 4%——趨勢發生了 3 到 4 個點的變化。有幾件事導致了這個現象。有一些短暫的順風,讓我先利用這些。您可以享受復活節輪班帶來的好處,該輪班處於一年中的二、三月。這大約值 1 分。而且,您已經從一年前的一些供應中斷中獲益,您可能還記得 Wet Ones、Preps 和某些美容產品。我們將其估計為順風約 0.5 點。

  • So right off the bat, you've got, call it, 1.5 points of tailwinds in half two that puts the business at about a flattish profile. And so, now you're asking yourself, how do I get to 2 points of growth in the back half of the year. And we would point to three distinct factors among many.

    因此,一開始,您就會得到,可以稱之為,一半時間 1.5 點的順風,這使業務處於平穩狀態。所以,現在你要問自己,我如何在下半年達到 2 個百分點的成長。我們從眾多因素中指出了三個不同的因素。

  • One is international. You heard us talk about that in the prepared remarks, but we continue to be very bullish on the growth profile of international. We have about a 4.5% to 5% organic profile for the second half of the year. It was always a plan that was going to be slightly heavier in the back half of the year given innovation and NPD rollouts given some of the investments that we're making and the timing of those. So we feel really good. I think that's an entirely reasonable pillar for growth, which would be international.

    一是國際化。您在準備好的演講中聽到我們談論了這一點,但我們仍然非常看好國際的成長前景。我們下半年的自然成長率約為 4.5% 至 5%。考慮到我們正在進行的一些投資以及投資時間安排,考慮到創新和新產品開發的推出,這個計劃在下半年會稍微繁重一些。所以我們感覺非常好。我認為這是一個完全合理的成長支柱,而且是國際化的。

  • I think the second one is Sun Care in the US, and I think it's important to call out while we are expecting less consumption growth in the category, we are still expecting a category that will grow in the back half of the year, where roughly 80% of the US sun season is consumed.

    我認為第二個是美國的防曬護理,我認為需要指出的是,雖然我們預計該類別的消費增長會減少,但我們仍然預計該類別在下半年會增長,因為美國陽光季節的大約 80% 都被消耗掉了。

  • It was flat a year ago. We're calling for about 2 points of consumption growth and then our organic growth would follow that. And then third, and lastly, I'll call out Sun Care, whereas you heard in the prepared remarks, we're taking a bit more thoughtful approach to the back half of the year.

    一年前,這一數字持平。我們預計消費量將成長約 2 個百分點,然後我們的有機成長也將隨之成長。第三,也是最後一點,我要提一下 Sun Care,正如您在準備好的發言中所聽到的,我們對下半年採取了更加周到的方法。

  • We're being a bit more prudent in how we think about growth, we're pointing to sequential growth as opposed to year-over-year growth in the third quarter and eventually we'll start to grow in the fourth quarter. And we've talked a lot about the Carefree, Stayfree transition. We're now -- that's behind us.

    我們對成長的看法更加謹慎,我們指的是第三季的連續成長而不是年成長,最終我們將在第四季開始成長。我們已經多次討論過 Carefree、Stayfree 的轉變。現在,這一切都已成為過去。

  • And then we're encouraged if you look at share performance overall for us in Fem Care, L52 to L13 to L4 to L1, you see a nicely improving trend to almost flat. Those are the three things that I would call out. Overall, we think about half two on a run rate basis of about 2 points of growth, and those would be the drivers of it.

    如果您看一下我們在女性護理領域的整體股票表現,從 L52 到 L13 到 L4 到 L1,我們會感到鼓舞,您會看到一個良好的改善趨勢,幾乎持平。這就是我要指出的三件事。整體而言,我們認為以運行率計算,二分之一的成長約為 2 個點,而這些將是成長的驅動因素。

  • Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Peter, I'd just add on top of this. It's Rod here. We always had this profile where the second half was going to be better than the first half. I think Dan laid it out well. We feel confident in what we've got line of sight to for the second half. And the other piece I'll just add on top of what Dan said.

    彼得,我只是想補充這一點。我是羅德。我們一直有這樣的預期,那就是下半場會比上半場更好。我認為丹的闡述很好。我們對下半年的前景充滿信心。我還要補充一點丹所說的內容。

  • We saw our relative market share performance in the US business improve as we exited the quarter. We continue to see that with what we have line of sight to in April. And we've got two categories and two brands that are seasonal in nature for us, Hawaiian Tropic and Billie that are the fastest-growing brands in each of their respective categories now coming into the peak, which also will benefit us in the second half of the year.

    隨著本季的結束,我們看到我們在美國業務中的相對市場份額表現有所改善。從四月的走勢來看,我們將繼續看到這一點。我們有兩個類別和兩個品牌具有季節性,Hawaiian Tropic 和 Billie 是各自類別中成長最快的品牌,目前正進入高峰期,這也將使我們在下半年受益。

  • Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Operator, next question, please.

    接線員,請問下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

    富國證券的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. I have a bigger picture question and then a quantitative one. I guess what I'm hearing on the call is confidence around execution, but then disappointment around North America. Can you help me square these two potentially differing concepts?

    嘿,大家好。我有一個更大的問題,然後是一個定量問題。我想我在電話中聽到的是對執行的信心,但對北美的失望。你能幫我理清這兩個可能不同的概念嗎?

  • Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure, Chris, and thanks for the question because this is the crux of what's going on. And we have line of sight, obviously, that others do not on this. If you step all the way back and just take stock of what's happening in a period of maximum uncertainty of what happens as we move forward.

    當然,克里斯,謝謝你的提問,因為這是事情的關鍵。顯然,我們對此有其他人所沒有的洞察力。如果你回顧過去,並評估在最不確定的時期內發生的事情,那麼我們接下來會發生什麼。

  • The fact is our categories remain okay. While they're slowing, they're still growing. So the growth is just at a slower rate in total. That's a global view, and it's domestic and it's international. So we have okay categories. Our relative market share performance in those categories is improving in almost every single market. So that's a positive for us in terms of our relative performance.

    事實是我們的類別仍然很好。儘管增速放緩,但仍在增長。因此整體而言,成長速度有所放緩。這是一種全球視野,既是國內的,也是國際的。所以我們有好的類別。我們在這些類別中的相對市場佔有率表現幾乎在每個市場都在增加。就我們的相對錶現而言,這對我們來說是正面的。

  • As I just referenced to Peter's question, we have real momentum in some cases, Billie, Hawaiian Tropic being the fastest-growing brands out of the entire set where we compete. We haven't talked a lot about it, but international remains rock solid. Our COGS productivity delivery is rock solid. We've got good line of sight to that.

    正如我剛才提到的彼得的問題,在某些情況下,我們有真正的發展勢頭,Billie、Hawaiian Tropic 是我們整個競爭品牌中成長最快的品牌。我們對此沒有進行過多的討論,但國際業務依然堅如磐石。我們的 COGS 生產力交付非常穩健。我們對此有很好的了解。

  • So then that leaves the question around where are we in North America. And there's an adage we've used before. We're fixing the plane while flying it. The transformation is here. It's not to come. Jess has been here six months.

    那麼剩下的問題就是我們在北美的什麼位置。我們以前用過一句格言。我們一邊飛行一邊修理飛機。轉變就在這裡。它不會到來。傑斯已經來這裡六個月了。

  • She's moving very quickly to address some of the structural issues we've had. And we're going to see sequential improvement in the North American business in the second half of the year. And again, it's already happened in April. So we've got confidence that this will happen. And there's a lot of little things happening that are going to add up to a very different outcome.

    她正在迅速採取行動解決我們遇到的一些結構性問題。我們將看到北美業務在今年下半年持續改善。再說一次,四月就已經發生過這樣的事情了。因此我們有信心這會發生。很多小事的發生會導致截然不同的結果。

  • Some of its discipline, some of it's things like price pack architecture, it's retailer connectivity. Jess is spending a lot of time out with retailers, and we're getting really nice response from retailers, not only for the season we're in, but for the future. So I've got a lot of confidence that we're going to see the pivot here in North America beginning in the second half of the year. Dan?

    它的一些學科,一些諸如價格包架構之類的東西,它是零售商連接。傑西花了很多時間與零售商交流,我們從零售商那裡得到了非常好的回饋,不僅是對我們目前所處的季節,而且對未來也是如此。因此,我非常有信心,我們將在今年下半年看到北美的轉變。擔?

  • Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

  • Chris, the only thing I would add, I wouldn't categorize our assessment of North America execution as disappointing. The sales profile didn't come the way we thought it would in the quarter, and we can certainly unpack that. But we're incrementally investing in Q3 meaningfully behind a couple of programs in Women's Shave and Sun Care.

    克里斯,我唯一想補充的是,我不會將我們對北美執行情況的評估歸類為令人失望。本季的銷售情況並不像我們想像的那樣,我們當然可以解釋這一點。但我們在第三季對女性剃須和防曬護理的幾個項目進行了有意義的增量投資。

  • And if we didn't have high confidence in our ability to execute both of those programs above and below the line, we wouldn't invest. So I wouldn't want to leave you with the impression we're disappointed in the execution. We're disappointed in the result. We did fall slightly short of our Q2 growth expectation, but highly confident in the execution the team is delivering else we wouldn't invest at this level.

    如果我們對自己執行上述和上述計劃的能力沒有很高的信心,我們就不會投資。所以我不想讓你留下我們對執行情況感到失望的印象。我們對結果感到失望。我們確實略微低於第二季的成長預期,但我們對團隊的執行力非常有信心,否則我們不會進行如此大規模的投資。

  • Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And let me just come back on top of that. Old Edgewell would have actually cut spend in this moment. We chose to lean in and increase spend directly behind the confidence we have in the North American team.

    讓我再回顧一下這一點。老埃奇韋爾此時實際上會削減開支。我們選擇加大投入,這直接源自於我們對北美團隊的信心。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Can I just follow-up on that around the investment side? I hear things like stepping up investment and just it skews investment cycle sometimes. Is this into pricing and promotion? You called out a step-up in advertising. Would you expect that this level of investment would sustain on a 12-month basis or is this point in time within a quarter? That was a follow-up there.

    我可以就投資方面的問題跟進一下嗎?我聽到諸如加大投資之類的事情,但這有時會扭曲投資週期。這涉及定價和促銷嗎?您呼籲加大廣告投入。您是否預計這種投資水準能夠持續 12 個月,或在一個季度內維持這個時間點?那是那裡的後續行動。

  • The only other one I had was just the free cash flow guidance came down more than earnings on a percentage basis. And if you could just add any context there would be helpful.

    我所知道的唯一另一個消息是,自由現金流指引的下降幅度超過了收益的百分比。如果您能添加任何上下文,那將會很有幫助。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. Sure, Chris. Let me start on your first question on the investment. I'm going to then hand it to Fran to quantify the investments and then she'll talk cash flow. So yes, we are incrementally investing in the quarter to the tune of about $15 million. It is entirely against North America, and it is entirely against the third quarter.

    是的。當然,克里斯。讓我先回答您關於投資的第一個問題。然後我將把它交給 Fran 來量化投資,然後她會談論現金流。是的,我們本季將逐步投資約 1500 萬美元。完全是跟北美作對,完全是跟第三季作對。

  • We are not profiling anything near that level of incremental spend in the fourth quarter. And that is simply a result of the seasonality of the businesses that we're investing in, Shave and Sun. So it's all third quarter, it's all North America, and we think a really compelling combination of brand activation, equity building, online activation and a pretty cool influencer program. Fran, what would you add?

    我們沒有記錄第四季度任何接近這一水平的增量支出。這只是我們所投資的企業 Shave and Sun 的季節性的結果。所以這都是第三季度,都是北美,我們認為這是一個真正引人注目的品牌激活、資產建設、在線激活和非常酷的影響者計劃的組合。弗蘭,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Francesca Weissman - Chief Financial Officer

    Francesca Weissman - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Chris. If we were to look at Q3, we're saying that gross margin has some headwinds. Some of that is consumer promotion. So Chris, to your question, we are investing in trade that is being funded by better performance coming out of Q2 and half one. And then we are investing in A&P. It's about $7 million specifically in Q3 that falls through to the second half. And then to answer your question on cash flow -- sorry, Chris, did you have a follow-up on that?

    是的。謝謝,克里斯。如果我們看一下第三季度,我們會發現毛利率面臨一些阻力。其中一些是消費者促銷。克里斯,對於你的問題,我們正在投資貿易,而這些貿易的資金來自於第二季和上半年的表現較好。然後我們投資 A&P。具體來說,第三季的支出約為 700 萬美元,這筆支出將延續到下半年。然後回答您關於現金流的問題——抱歉,克里斯,您對此有什麼後續問題嗎?

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • No, just the cash flow. That's it.

    不,只是現金流。就是這樣。

  • Francesca Weissman - Chief Financial Officer

    Francesca Weissman - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So when we look at cash flow for the year, we are projecting about $130 million to $140 million of cash flow. So that is down versus our previous outlook. A lot of that is driven off of lower earnings and lower GAAP earnings. But the other piece is working capital.

    是的。因此,當我們查看今年的現金流時,我們預計現金流約為 1.3 億至 1.4 億美元。因此,與我們先前的預測相比,這是下降的。其中很大一部分是由於收益較低和 GAAP 收益較低造成的。但另一部分是營運資金。

  • So when we think about inventory, inventory levels are higher than we expected in our previous outlook. Some of that is mitigation coming in ahead of the tariffs and pre-buying. So that's driving some headwind on our working capital. So the combination of those two factors is really what's driving the shortfall versus our previous guide.

    因此,當我們考慮庫存時,庫存水準高於我們先前預期的水準。其中一些是關稅和預購之前的緩解措施。所以這對我們的營運資金造成了一些阻力。因此,這兩個因素的結合才是導致與我們先前的指南相比出現短缺的真正原因。

  • Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

  • We think, Chris, entirely transitory. Our ability to deliver significant incremental free cash flow, I think, is pretty clear. Our cash flow efficiency is still at 100% or more. We just think it's the right investment in inventory to buffer some of the tariff impact in the near-term.

    克里斯,我們認為這完全是暫時的。我認為,我們提供大量增量自由現金流的能力非常明顯。我們的現金流效率仍然在100%以上。我們只是認為,對庫存進行正確的投資可以緩解短期內關稅的部分影響。

  • Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Operator, next question please?

    接線員,請問下一個問題?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bill Chappell, Truist Securities.

    Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

  • Bill Chappell - Analyst

    Bill Chappell - Analyst

  • Thanks, good morning. Hey, another follow-up on tariffs and just trying to understand the mitigation. I mean one thing I haven't really -- I think I have heard from you or from many others is actually stepping up pricing and to offset tariffs. That seems to be the quickest way to do so.

    謝謝,早安。嘿,再次跟進關稅問題,只是想了解緩解措施。我的意思是,有一件事我還沒有真正聽說過——我認為我從您或其他許多人那裡聽說過,那就是實際上提高定價並抵消關稅。這似乎是最快的方法。

  • And so, I guess the question is, as you look across your portfolio, do you think you have the ability to raise prices or there's some major elasticity? Are you waiting for your comps and especially like the market leaders to raise price before you do? How are you contemplating that, especially as we go into '26 on pricing? Just any more color there would be helpful as another way to mitigate tariffs.

    所以,我想問題是,當你檢視你的投資組合時,你認為你有能力提高價格嗎?或是否存在較大的彈性?您是否在等待您的同類產品,尤其是市場領導者先於您提高價格?您如何考慮這一點,特別是當我們進入 26 年定價階段時?任何更多的顏色都將有助於減輕關稅。

  • Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. Sure. Good morning, Bill, And I should have probably clarified in the upfront. I think the levers that we could pull range from any and all productivity-based initiatives to global sourcing and yes, could certainly include some form of consumer price increase.

    是的。當然。早安,比爾,我應該提前澄清。我認為我們可以採取的措施包括所有基於生產力的措施以及全球採購,當然也可以包括某種形式的消費者價格上漲。

  • I think where and how that plays out is going to very much depend on which market we're in, obviously, and where we might have sort of market-leading positions that would create a price leadership profile. I can tell you, both here in the North America business and in international the teams are already working on that.

    我認為,這將在哪裡以及如何發揮作用,很大程度上取決於我們所處的市場,以及我們可能在哪些市場佔據領先地位,從而創造價格領先地位。我可以告訴你,無論是北美業務還是國際業務,團隊都已經在致力於此了。

  • We don't have anything contemplated in terms of incremental pricing this fiscal year related to tariffs. There is pricing being taken in international markets that was in our plan that's unrelated to tariffs. But I wouldn't want to leave you with the impression that we're not considering that. We absolutely are and will.

    本財年我們還沒有考慮任何與關稅相關的增量定價。在我們的計劃中,國際市場上的定價與關稅無關。但我不想讓您覺得我們沒有考慮到這一點。我們絕對會這麼做,而且一定會這麼做。

  • I think the immediate steps you can take are more on the cost side, particularly on sourcing. But I suspect as this picture evolves, pricing will have to play some component of the offset. How much, where, to what degree, I think will be determined as we learn more.

    我認為您可以立即採取的措施更多是在成本方面,特別是在採購方面。但我懷疑,隨著情勢的發展,定價將發揮一定的抵銷作用。我認為,隨著我們了解的越來越多,我們將能夠確定具體數量、地點和程度。

  • Bill Chappell - Analyst

    Bill Chappell - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you. And then on Sun Care, I guess, I don't fully understand how you view the category as a staple. I understand weather in the first or in the most recent quarter was off, but that doesn't really tell us much about the upcoming peak season. So are you expecting consumer trade down.

    好的。謝謝。然後關於防曬,我想,我不太明白您如何看待該類別作為主要產品。我知道第一季或最近一個季度的天氣不太好,但這並不能真正告訴我們即將到來的旺季的情況。那麼,您是否預期消費者的消費水準會下降?

  • And so, there are less dollars to grow the category? Are you expecting people to stay inside a lot more because of tariffs? Any more color of why you think there's a little diminished outlook for the Sun Care category in the US over the next few months would be helpful.

    那麼,用於擴大該類別的資金就減少了嗎?您是否認為人們會因為關稅而更多地留在家裡?如果您能更詳細地解釋為什麼您認為未來幾個月美國防曬產品類別的前景會略有減弱,那將會很有幫助。

  • Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Bill, good morning. I'll start and then Fran can add in. Look, I think we still are bullish on the sun season. We did take the outlook down a bit, partially for the early season weather. But also as we look forward, we still have growth expected. We don't see trade down. In fact, we see people being outside as much as ever.

    是的。比爾,早安。我先開始,然後 Fran 可以加入。瞧,我認為我們仍然對陽光季節持樂觀態度。我們確實將預期下調了一點,部分原因是賽季初的天氣。但展望未來,我們仍有望實現成長。我們沒有看到貿易下滑。事實上,我們看到人們像以前一樣經常外出。

  • We see the incident rate around health and wellness, taking care of your skin, use of SPF going up, not down. But we do have a little bit of a pause when you look at travel statistics and spending on airfare. A lot of our consumption is around occasion-based that goes with tourism and vacations and travel.

    我們發現與健康和保健、皮膚護理、使用防曬霜有關的發病率正在上升,而不是下降。但當你查看旅行統計數據和機票支出時,我們確實會稍微停頓一下。我們的消費很多都是圍繞著旅遊、度假和旅行等場合進行的。

  • So if that does drop off in the summer as some are predicting and the air travel may suggest, then we in the category may be impacted. That's what we put in here effectively. We still feel like there's going to be growth domestically and internationally. And we actually are set up that we think we're going to grow share in what is a growing category in the year. I don't know if you'd add --

    因此,如果像一些人預測的那樣,夏季客流量確實下降,並且航空旅行也可能暗示這種情況,那麼我們這個類別可能會受到影響。這就是我們在這裡有效實施的內容。我們仍然覺得國內和國際都會出現成長。事實上,我們已經做好準備,認為我們在今年的成長類別中的份額將會擴大。我不知道你是否會添加--

  • Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. Just to quantify it, Bill, the only thing I would add, as we looked our original thought for consumption in the back half of the year in the US, we had profiled mid single digit growth. And we've adjusted that for all the reasons Rod described to be more like low single digit growth.

    是的。比爾,為了量化這一點,我唯一要補充的是,當我們回顧美國下半年消費的最初想法時,我們發現成長率達到了中等個位數。並且,由於羅德所描述的所有原因,我們已經將其調整為更像是低個位數成長。

  • That's the main change in our thinking, and it's all based on consumer sentiment, discretionary spend, leisure travel spend. We hope we're wrong by the way, but that's what we've profiled and then we've adjusted organic expectations accordingly.

    這是我們思維上的主要變化,這一切都基於消費者情緒、可自由支配的支出和休閒旅遊支出。順便說一句,我們希望我們是錯的,但這就是我們所概括的,然後我們相應地調整了有機預期。

  • Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think the other thing that gives us confidence, Bill, in our numbers in the second half that we can deliver them is we've got the fastest-growing brand in the set with Hawaiian Tropic, faster than any other brand year-to-date, and we have not even started the activation campaign that will happen later this month with the incremental spend going against it that we think actually has the chance to be really, really big.

    比爾,我認為讓我們對下半年業績充滿信心的另一個原因是,我們擁有夏威夷熱帶酒店集團中增長最快的品牌,今年迄今為止,其增長速度比任何其他品牌都要快,而且我們甚至還沒有開始將於本月晚些時候開展的激活活動,我們認為,增量支出實際上有機會變得非常非常大。

  • Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Operator, next question, please.

    接線員,請問下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Olivia Tong, Raymond James.

    奧利維亞唐,雷蒙德詹姆斯。

  • Olivia Tong - Analyst

    Olivia Tong - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Apologies if I missed it, but I wanted to know to what extent destocking played a role, number one. Number two, did you talk about an annualized tariff headwind?

    偉大的。謝謝。如果我錯過了,請原諒,但我想知道去庫存在多大程度上發揮了作用,這是第一點。第二,您是否談到了年度關稅逆風?

  • And then the last thing that I want to ask you about is just the investment areas that you're prioritizing in fiscal '25, US Wet Shave and Sun Care, it sounds like it also means more promo, but then you also talked about pricing in order to mitigate tariffs. So if you could just compare and contrast that and help us understand that piece. Thank you.

    然後,我想問您的最後一件事是您在 25 財年優先考慮的投資領域,即美國濕剃和防曬護理,這聽起來也意味著更多的促銷,但您也談到了定價以減輕關稅。因此,如果您可以比較和對比這一點並幫助我們理解這一點。謝謝。

  • Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Sullivan - Chief Operating Officer

  • Hey, Olivia, it's Dan. I'll take them in reverse order, and I'll let Rod speak to the inventory. So just to be super clear on the investment profile. As Fran said, we are investing incrementally in promotion, I'll call it, retail activation in the third quarter to the tune of about $7 million or 100 basis points of margin headwind.

    嘿,奧莉維亞,我是丹。我會按相反的順序來處理它們,然後讓羅德來講解庫存。所以只是為了非常清楚地了解投資概況。正如弗蘭所說,我們正在逐步投資促銷,我稱之為第三季度的零售激活,投資金額約為 700 萬美元或 100 個基點的利潤率逆風。

  • Equally, at the same time, as I just said, there are select international markets where we already have price increases baked into our outlook outside of the US. So we've got increased promotion going in the US. We've got select price actions happening in the fourth quarter internationally. So that's that point.

    同樣,正如我剛才所說,與此同時,我們已經將美國以外部分國際市場的價格上漲納入了我們的預測中。因此我們在美國加大了推廣力道。我們注意到第四季國際上出現了一些精選的價格行動。這就是重點。

  • On the tariffs, so what we have said in-year, $3 million to $4 million of impact, think of that as two months' worth of released impact. The rest gets stocked in inventory -- trapped in inventory and released next year. And then as far as the full year impact of that, we are profiling right now an annualized exposure of about 3% to 4% of COGS.

    關於關稅,我們說過,一年內會產生 300 萬到 400 萬美元的影響,可以將其視為兩個月的釋放影響。其餘的則存入庫存——被困在庫存中,明年再釋出。就全年影響而言,我們目前預計年化風險敞口約為 COGS 的 3% 至 4%。

  • So I think $40 million to $50 million in potential impact. Again, that is before we assume any ability to offset that in further cost productivity efforts and or further pricing efforts. So just the annualized exposure that we have to tariffs based on what we know now is in that 3% to 4% range.

    所以我認為潛在影響為 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。再次,這是在我們假設有能力透過進一步的成本生產力努力和/或進一步的定價努力來抵消這一影響之前。因此,根據我們目前所知,我們受到關稅影響的年化風險敞口在 3% 至 4% 之間。

  • Rod, do you want to talk about inventory?

    羅德,你想談談庫存嗎?

  • Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We're seeing no meaningful destocking by retailers.

    我們沒有看到零售商進行任何有意義的去庫存行動。

  • Olivia Tong - Analyst

    Olivia Tong - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks. And then just on private label, could you talk a little about what's going on with private label in your categories? You guys are in a unique position where you can potentially soften the blow from a consumer perspective with your private brand group.

    知道了。謝謝。然後就自有品牌而言,您能否簡單談談您所在類別中自有品牌的現況?你們處於一個獨特的位置,可以透過自有品牌集團從消費者的角度來減輕打擊。

  • So any discussions with particular retailers thinking about club to help influence to help us understand a little bit more about the backdrop in your key segments. Thank you.

    因此,與特定零售商進行的任何討論都會影響我們,並幫助我們更多地了解您關鍵細分市場的背景。謝謝。

  • Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Private brands business, we call Edgewell Custom Brands now is strategic for us. As you know, Olivia, it's a big sizable piece of our shave business. It's average -- its portfolio average profit delivery and we've got a really interesting growth profile in that business, particularly in international where we're having rapid growth, winning distribution, new tenders and contracts.

    自有品牌業務(我們稱之為 Edgewell Custom Brands)現在對我們來說具有戰略意義。奧利維亞,您知道,這是我們剃須業務中相當大的一部分。這是平均水平——其投資組合的平均利潤交付,我們在該業務中有著非常有趣的成長概況,特別是在國際領域,我們實現了快速成長,贏得了分銷、新的投標和合約。

  • The team in Europe in particular is doing a really nice job with that. But look, we're not seeing any material shifts to private label at this point. So share is relatively stable. Certainly, if the consumer comes under incremental pressure from here, we would expect private label to tick up. We would benefit from that. And I think I feel as good today as I felt since I've been here about our capabilities to win and be successful in that part of our business.

    尤其是歐洲團隊在這方面做得非常好。但看看,我們目前還沒有看到任何向自有品牌的實質轉變。所以份額相對穩定。當然,如果消費者從現在開始承受越來越大的壓力,我們預期自有品牌將會崛起。我們將從中受益。我認為今天我的感覺和我來到這裡以來的感覺一樣好,因為我們有能力在業務的這一部分中獲勝並取得成功。

  • Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Chris Gough - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Operator, next question, please?

    接線員,請問下一個問題?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have no more questions registered at this time.

    目前我們沒有其他登記的問題。

  • Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rod Little - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right. Well, thank you, everybody. Interesting quarter, a lot going on. We'll know a lot more when we get together in early August to talk about Q3. Thanks for your continued interest and investment.

    好的。好的,謝謝大家。有趣的一個季度,發生了很多事情。當我們在 8 月初聚在一起討論第三季時,我們就會知道更多。感謝您一直以來的關注與投資。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our Q&A session. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。