Edgewell Personal Care Co (EPC) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Third Quarter Fiscal 2017 Earnings Call for Edgewell. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Gough. Please go ahead.

  • Chris Gough - VP of IR

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Edgewell's Third Quarter Fiscal 2017 Earnings Conference Call. With me this morning is David Hatfield, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board; and Sandy Sheldon, our Chief Financial Officer. David will kick off the call then hand the call over to Sandy for the earnings and outlook discussion, followed by Q&A. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay via our website, www.edgewell.com.

  • During the call, we may make statements about our expectations for future plans and performance. This might include future sales, earnings, advertising and promotional spending, product launches, savings and costs related to restructuring, changes to our working capital metrics, currency fluctuations, commodity costs, category value, future plans for return of capital to shareholders and more.

  • Any such statements are forward-looking statements, which reflect our current views with respect to future events. These statements are based on assumptions and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those described under the caption Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30, 2016, as amended and supplemented in our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended December 31, 2016; March 31, 2017; and June 30, 2017.

  • These risks may cause our actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements. We do not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances.

  • During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are shown in our press release issued earlier today, which is available in the Investor Relations section of our website. Management believes these non-GAAP measures provide investors valuable information on the underlying trends of our business.

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to David.

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Before Sandy takes you through the financial results, I'll briefly comment on the quarter, noting several of our key product launches in the quarter in support of our growth initiatives, and I'll discuss our outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.

  • Overall, we continue to operate in a very challenging environment, particularly in the U.S., where all of our categories declined in the quarter and the heightened level of competitive intensity continued, particularly in Wet Shave and Feminine Care.

  • However, even with that as a backdrop, I was relatively pleased with our overall performance in the quarter, as we delivered strong adjusted operating profit growth of nearly 40%, adjusted EPS growth of 68%, good cash flow generation and share gains in Wet Shave and Sun Care. Additionally, we continue to get traction from innovation in both Wet Shave and Sun and Skin Care. And in the third quarter, we launched several key offerings in e-commerce in emerging markets in support of our key growth initiatives.

  • Looking across our segments in the quarter, in Wet Shave, we gained share globally and in the U.S. across Men's, Women's and Disposables. In the terms of sales, overall organic net sales were flat. We accelerated growth in International as expected, and we grew sales in North America Men's Systems.

  • In Sun and Skin Care, organic net sales were up in both North America and International and across both the Banana Boat and the Hawaiian Tropic brands. North America growth benefited from lower returns and decreased promotional spend compared to the prior year, while International continue to benefit from innovation and incremental distribution.

  • Our Feminine Care business continues to be challenged on the top line, impacted by declines in Sport Pads as expected and also soft category metrics and intense competition.

  • On our conference call last quarter, we discussed at length the objectives of our 3 strategic pillars, and I'd like to spend a few minutes talking about some of the progress we're making against them. As a reminder, our first pillar is to continue to focus on and improve our fundamentals, including providing compelling innovation for consumers. Our second strategic pillar is to rapidly reconfigure our business against growth opportunities that we see in the marketplace, such as e-retail, direct-to-consumer and growth channels. And our third pillar is to build organizational capabilities and generate resources to support and fund these initiatives.

  • In the quarter, we made progress in each of these 3 strategic pillars. In Wet Shave, innovation contributed to our market share gains in the quarter, including Quattro You disposables in North America and our 3 bladed fits MACH3 private label offerings in many markets around the world.

  • In Sun, we had all 5 of the top 5 new items in the U.S. according to Nielsen and 7 of the top 10 contributing to share gains for both Banana Boat and Hawaiian Tropic.

  • In Wet Shave, we launched our first direct-to-consumer site in the U.S., schickhydro.com, featuring our new Hydro Connect innovation featuring cartridges with 3- and 5-blade Hydro technology that fit on Gillette handles. We also introduced Hydro Connect in China through our Tmall partner, and we launched Hydro Connect into retail channels in Italy and several markets in Central Europe. Although these are just the beginning, they're important steps on our path to delivering on our financial algorithm.

  • To wrap up, let me make a few comments on the remainder of the year. The resiliency of our business model and the financial discipline being shown by our colleagues around the world.

  • We continue to see unprecedented category declines and competitive pressure in the U.S., which impacted us in the third quarter and we expect will continue into the fourth quarter as well. Despite this, we grew share in Wet Shave and the Sun, we benefited from our geographic and product mix and we benefited from the actions we've taken to drive productivity and efficiency in our business.

  • As we look to the remainder of the year, we've revised our full year sales outlook to reflect the ongoing weakness in our categories. However, we're increasing our adjusted EPS and adjusted operating margin outlook, reflecting the strong profit performance in this past quarter cost and expense actions that will help mitigate the additional top line softness we're expecting in the fourth quarter and an improved outlook for tax.

  • So we put ourselves in a good position to achieve or exceed our adjusted EPS and operating profit objectives for the full fiscal year, we continue to invest for the future and we're acting with urgency to accelerate our efforts to drive growth while focusing on our cost reduction and productivity initiatives.

  • Thanks. And with that, I'll hand it over to Sandy.

  • Sandra J. Sheldon - CFO

  • Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I'll cover our third quarter business performance, beginning with a few headlines. Net sales in the quarter were $638 million, down about 1% on a reported basis and down 0.6% on an organic basis, with growth in our Sun and Skin Care segment offset by Feminine Care net sales declines. Wet Shave was essentially flat.

  • From a geographic perspective, North America organic net sales were down 2.5%, while International organic net sales increased 3.2%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 35% and adjusted EPS grew 68% versus a year ago. Strong profit performance in a challenging market and competitive environment. Cash from operating activities was $119 million year-to-date, and we repurchased 1.3 million shares through the first 3 quarters of '17.

  • Turning to sales. Reported net sales were down 1.2% in the quarter at $638 million and down 60 basis points on an organic basis, which includes a $4 million benefit from the Bulldog acquisition and a $7.9 million negative impact from currency. Overall, volume was down slightly, 0.5%, as higher volumes in Wet Shave were offset by declines in Feminine Care.

  • Overall, price mix was relatively flat at minus 0.1% as improved international pricing, lower promotional spend and improved Sun Care returns were offset by unfavorable mix in North America. I'll review more details of the drivers from a segment perspective in a few minutes.

  • Gross margin was 50.5%, an increase of 230 basis points. The increase was driven by lower product cost resulting from operational efficiencies, from favorable commodity costs as well as favorable product mix. A&P expense as a percent of net sales was 17.9%, down 110 basis points, primarily due to higher spending last year in support of Feminine Care innovation and promotional campaigns in Wet Shave. Through the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year, A&P was 14.3% of net sales, roughly in line with the same period last year.

  • SG&A expense was 15.3% of net sales. Excluding prior year spend-related cost, SG&A as a percent of net sales decreased 50 basis points. Benefits from lower compensation expense in the quarter and ZBS savings helped to offset increased investments in support of our China and e-Commerce growth initiatives as well as investments in IT.

  • Other income was $1.6 million compared to an $8.2 million expense in the prior year, primarily reflecting the impact of a net benefit from foreign currency contract gains and losses in the quarter, the revaluation of nonfunctional currency balance sheet exposures as well as $3.2 million of interest expense related to settlements with tax authorities recorded in the prior year.

  • Interest expense was down, reflecting lower debt levels this year, and the effective tax rate to the first 9 months was 22.9% versus 19% in the same prior year period. Excluding tax associated with restructuring expenses, the adjusted effective rate was 23.9%, essentially flat with the prior year period of 23.8%. Net of all these factors, GAAP diluted EPS was $0.95 in the quarter as compared to $0.61 from the prior year, and adjusted EPS for the quarter was $1.11 as compared to $0.66 in the prior year.

  • Net cash from operating activities was $119.4 million for the first 9 months of '17 as compared to $4.1 million in the prior year. The improvement reflects the discretionary funding of certain international pension plans of $100.5 million in the prior year and higher net earnings this year, partially offset by higher current year and deferred compensation payments. We continue to expect free cash flow to be approximately 100% of GAAP net earnings for the fiscal year. So those are our results on a total company basis.

  • Let me turn now to our segment results. Starting with our Wet Shave segment, organic net sales were flat in the quarter as higher net sales in Men's Systems globally were offset by declines in the remainder of the portfolio. International organic net sales increased in the quarter as expected, with growth in Men's Systems, Women's Systems and private label. However, international sales growth was somewhat below our expectations due to softness in Europe, driven in part by temporary supply chain issues related to our Wet Shave footprint project as well as lower promotional activities.

  • In North America, organic net sales decreased in the quarter, largely due to the declines in Women's Systems, partially offset by growth in Men's Systems driven by promotional activities. The decline in Women's Systems was largely category based as the category declined 14% in the quarter. We also grew North America Disposables volume with innovation and distribution gains, although higher promotions and negative mix more than offset the volume gains in the quarter.

  • Wet Shave segment profit increased 31% due to improved gross margin, reflecting lower product and commodity costs and favorable product mix. In addition, A&P spending was lower in the quarter on decreased media spend for Women's Systems and Disposables, partially offset by higher spend in Men's Systems.

  • Turning to the Wet Shave category. Like last quarter, we continue to see material softness across Men's and Women's Systems. Disposables was down but to a larger -- to a lesser extent. As measured by Nielsen, the U.S. manual shave category was down over 10% in the latest 12-week data and men's manual share -- shave was down over 16%. When factoring in nonmeasured channels, we believe the U.S. men's category was down over 8% with the overall razors and blades category down about 6%.

  • From a value share perspective, we grew share globally and versus a year ago, our U.S. share was up over 200 basis points in manual shave, driven by market share gains in branded Men's, Women's, Disposables and private label. We also grew EQ share over the 12-week period, a strong data point given the competitive dynamics in the category.

  • Sun and Skin Care net sales increased 6.5%, including the positive impact of the Bulldog acquisition. Organic net sales increased nearly 5% in the quarter, driven by solid gains in both North America and international. Growth in North America was largely driven by lower returns and lower promotional spend, partially offset by the impact of exiting the private label Sun Care business this year, which resulted in a drag of about $2.6 million in the quarter with an estimated impact of $9 million for the full year.

  • International net sales grew behind volume and category increases. And although not included on our organic metrics, our Bulldog men's grooming product line continues to perform well from a sales and market share perspective as we rapidly increase the number of store launches in both U.S. and international.

  • Segment profit increased $8.1 million, driven primarily by lower returns, lower promotional spend and cost savings generated through restructuring programs.

  • Within the U.S. Sun Care category, consumption was down about 3% in the quarter primarily driven by cooler weather. Our U.S. market share improved in the quarter in both Banana Boat and Hawaiian Tropic brands, largely driven by new products, including our Banana Boat Dry Balance and Hawaiian Tropic Silk Hydration Weightless C-Spray and face products. As David mentioned earlier, our new products are performing very well this year. We had top 5 of the top 5 new products in the U.S., as measured by Nielsen, with Banana Boat Kids Sport SPF 50 at #1. Both Banana Boat and Hawaiian Tropic are well represented on the top SKU list for '17.

  • Turning to Feminine Care. Organic net sales decreased $10.7 million or 11% due to volume declines related to distribution losses, increased competitive pressure and category softness. Sport-branded pad sales were down approximately $4 million as expected due to distribution losses. Growth in our Sport Compact tampon was not enough to offset distribution losses in [genoply] and o.b.

  • Feminine Care segment profit increased $0.2 million driven by lower A&P and overhead spending, which offset lower volumes and unfavorable price mix. Sequentially, Feminine Care gross margin and segment profit improved, as incremental product costs related to the transition of manufacturing from Montreal to Dover, Delaware were largely offset by improved commodity costs and cost savings from restructuring. With these incremental transition costs largely behind us, as we move to complete this project in the coming quarter, we expect to see improved segment profit again in the fourth quarter. Overall, the Feminine Care category was down 150 basis points in the quarter with declines in tampons, pads and liners. Our market share declined 1.4 points.

  • And finally, in our All Other segment, organic net sales decreased 1.9%, driven by declines in our cups and bottles business. We continued to grow both Diaper Genie and Pet Care in the quarter, and that's the 7th consecutive quarter of organic net sales growth in our Diaper Genie business.

  • Turning to our full year outlook. We are revising our outlook for organic net sales to be down 1% to 2% for the year, down from our previous outlook of flat. This outlook reflects additional declines in Feminine Care and U.S. Wet Shave due to category softness and heightened competitive intensity, and it reflects the impact of lower Wet Shave net sales in Europe in the third quarter. We are raising our previously stated outlook for adjusted EPS, reflecting the lowered outlook on sales, the strong profit performance in the third quarter and lower tax rate. We will continue to take a balanced approach in investment in the business for the long term and expansion in the year.

  • So for the full fiscal year 2017, we estimate that organic net sales and reported net sales will be down approximately 1% to 2%. This includes an estimated 60 basis point headwind from currency and an estimated 60 basis point benefit from the Bulldog acquisition.

  • Our GAAP EPS outlook is now in the range of $3.55 to $3.70, and our adjusted EPS is now in the range of $3.90 to $4.05. Adjusted operating income margin is now anticipated to expand by 50 to 70 basis points. The effective tax rate is now estimated to be in the range of 24% to 25%.

  • The full year estimate for restructuring-related costs is now $28 million to $30 million for fiscal '17, reflecting an increase in Wet Shave footprint costs as well as the estimated noncash charge related to the disposition of real estate. We continue to expect incremental restructuring savings of $20 million to $25 million in '17 and an additional $20 million to $25 million in '18 and '19 combined. The Sun Care production move to our Dover plant is now complete, and we do not expect to incur material restructuring charges related to this project in fiscal '18.

  • Our Zero-Based Spend initiative remains on track to deliver an estimated $10 million to $15 million in net savings for fiscal '17, and we continue to estimate we can deliver $35 million to $45 million in net savings over '17 and '18 combined. As I mentioned last quarter, 2-year savings goals have been established by category, and we're putting the tools in place to generate sustainable savings, putting enhanced visibility and detail KPI in savings tracking. The ZBS spending and budgeting initiative will be fully embedded into the operating structure of the company as we move into '18.

  • Thank you. And with that, we'll open it up for questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Ali Dibadj with Bernstein.

  • Ali Dibadj - SVP and Senior Analyst

  • I have a few questions. One was just in terms of the balance between top line and bottom line. I mean, is it -- sorry about the background noise. Is it wise to cut A&P? I understand you're lapping some from last year. But is it wise to deliver so much of the bottom line, cut A&P when your top line is growing the way it's growing? And how do you ensure that the balance is right between the competitive environment? That's one question. And the second one is, you mentioned a little bit of private label expansion in Europe as well, bolstering some of your growth rates there. Can you talk about the competitive nature in Europe and whether you anticipate getting in any way as aggressive as it is in the U.S.?

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Thank you, Ali. On the A&P front, as you noted, it's -- the spend varies kind of quarter by -- quarter-to-quarter, depending on product launches, program phasing, whatnot. When you look at our total year, we actually think that our overall marketing pressure on our brands as a percent of sales will actually be up. Why I say that is during the year, we have shifted some A&P up to deflate the trade spend funding coupons, trade programs, et cetera. We've also -- through ZBS, we've cut some nonworking funds, also with the private label, I mean, like growing modestly in the mix that lowers A&P as a percent of sales. So you net all of that and when you get underneath the hood, we think overall marketing pressure is actually up for the year against brands. How we judge whether enough is enough or where we should spend is really a bottom-up, market-by-market exercise, and we feel share of voice is where we need it versus share of market. On the Europe front, answering your question about where competitive pressure goes means that I kind of have to speculate about competition, and I'm not sure that I want to go there. I'll make the point that markets in Europe are very competitive now both promotionally. And we see Libya in Germany and whatnot. So it's a competitive situation, one that we're actually dealing with well and are confident in our capabilities.

  • Ali Dibadj - SVP and Senior Analyst

  • Can I just ask on that more broadly, a follow-up question? When you guys spun out, until today, your long-term guidance is 2% to 3%. Sun Care is doing okay, it looks like. But I guess, what do you need from Wet Shave and Fem Care to get to 2% to 3%? Do you anticipate getting there? Kind of is that still your target? Because it just seems tough to consistently get their understanding this is a tough kind of competitive environment right now. I don't really know if you have confidence it is going to get much better going forward to get 2% or 3%.

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Yes, sure. No, we remain confident in our medium-term algorithm. We actually hit it on the high end of our -- of the range last year on an underlying basis. And we think over the medium term, we can do so. It's really predicated on our ability to modestly gain share in our global categories of Shave and Sun, and it's also predicated on the modest category growth in those segments. And as you indicated, this year, with the competitive situation, that's a challenging factor on Shave. Looking forward, as we anniversary that and as we work our way through the Feminine Care issues that we face, we're actually confident we can resume the medium-term sales growth outlook.

  • Operator

  • Our next question is from Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.

  • Faiza Alwy - Research Analyst

  • So I just wanted to -- I had 2 questions. One is just on the women's Wet Shave category. It seems like the U.S. category has decelerated significantly. I think you mentioned it was down 14%. So one, I just wanted to clarify, is that based on Nielsen or is that across all channels? And what is driving this decline? And what is your sort of longer-term outlook on the women's category?

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Yes. Yes, thank you. Yes, the women's Nielsen category this quarter significantly slowed. It was down 14% in dollars and almost 11% in units. It was -- like the units were a significant sequential slowdown. We think that in hindsight, part of it -- a fair amount was actually driven by pantry loading in the -- due to holiday gift sets plus then the planogram markdowns in January. Those were a significant pantry load. Besides that, several customers shifted their promotional emphasis to Women's Disposables. And I think that we're seeing modest but sequential growth in online growth also. That all drove the quarter unit declines and then there's been some category deflation and product mix that contributed to the dollar decline. Looking forward, we think a lot of those factors are relatively onetime. So I don't see a systematic issue with the women's category that can't be rectified.

  • Faiza Alwy - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just my second question was on the gross margin. I think you came in well above our estimate. And I think you mentioned commodity several times. Can you remind us what the major commodities are because it looks like most of the commodities were actually inflating in the first half of the year? So I'm just a little bit confused by that.

  • Sandra J. Sheldon - CFO

  • So the commodity favorability we had in the quarter was really a continuation of what we've had all year, although slightly better just because of volumes. But our main drivers are resins, packaging, third-party manufacturing, we do produce some products outside, steel costs and we also had lower freight costs.

  • Operator

  • Next question is from Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

  • Sunil Harshad Modi - MD of Tobacco, Household Products and Beverages

  • Just a couple of quick ones for me. Maybe if you can give an update on 3 areas, the direct-to-consumer launch that you had during the quarter, trade spending efficiency. I know you guys have been working on a project there and just wanted to get an update if you're starting to see any benefits. And then just quickly, kind of big picture thoughts on the M&A environment, if there are things that are out that are interesting to you.

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Okay, sure. Sure. Thanks, Nik. On the DTC front, we're actually pleased with the launch. We're making progress, I think, from a financial metric point of view. We've actually grown rapidly off of a 0 base, so the results are not really material. But I think that we've learned a great deal, both -- even in the short time that we've been out there from a messaging point of view. I think that we're learning a lot and I think that we've also learned a lot operationally. On the trade spend front, we actually continue to make progress sorting all of our events into 4 quadrants and moving the lowest efficiency quadrant events to higher productivity tactics. So I think that we're making progress there. And then on the M&A front, I guess all I can really say is we continue to fill the funnel and to track several targets as we always do.

  • Operator

  • Next question comes from Olivia Tong with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

  • Olivia Tong - Director

  • It's interesting to me that you widened the full year organic sales range, with just 1 quarter left to go. So it does imply a fairly large sort of 4- to 5-point range for Q4. So you talked about the incremental softening in a couple of key areas, but what gets you from one end of the range to the other? I know the comp is pretty tough, but I always thought that, that was more a function of the price that, in other words, fiscal '15 being such an easy comp for fiscal '16. So that by this Q4, we'd be back to a more normalized base and then I have a follow-up.

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Yes, thank you. I think the range just reflects partially why we're comping a very strong year ago Sun Care season. And how this one plays out relative to that is a little bit up in the air. And I'll say that the incremental softening in the third quarter of both Men's and Women's Shave gives us a little pause. And so I think that just reflects exogenous factors, and so I think that's the main driver. Sandy, any other comment or...

  • Sandra J. Sheldon - CFO

  • No, the only other piece, I guess, that would factor into the range is the -- some of the supply chain issues we saw in Europe in third quarter. We may have a bit of an overhang in fourth quarter. So I think that also factored into the wider range.

  • Olivia Tong - Director

  • Got it. And then just your view on promotion and advertising, has that changed at all since Gillette made its pricing moves? Because you've obviously got advertising down triple digits this quarter after -- on a down triple-digit comp and you said that ad spend is down in every division and promotion is down in your 2 biggest. So how much of this is timing or short- to medium-term shift or just a broader change in terms of how you think about levels of spending required to support your businesses?

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Yes, thank you. No, the third quarter, it was just timing. We're committed to supporting our brands and any quarter-to-quarter change. Yes, that would have been planned several months to 1 year ago and that's not in response to the competition per se. Like I mentioned, one of the reasons that it's down is that we did move some A&P up to trade spend and that's generally in a reaction to overall competitive pressures over the last year.

  • Operator

  • Next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

  • Jason English - VP

  • Can you delve in a little bit deeper into the positive mix effects in Wet Shave this quarter? It was certainly surprising to see that realized this quarter from our perspective.

  • Sandra J. Sheldon - CFO

  • Well, the main driver was we had higher Men's Systems volumes in the quarter, and that drove a very healthy mix for our overall business.

  • Jason English - VP

  • And what drove higher Men's Systems in context to what you're saying about Men's Systems slowing, competitive intensity most isolated there and some of your volume growth being driven by private label? If anything, I would expect the mix to go the other way. And related to that and I guess, what I'm really getting at, is did shipments track with consumption on Men's Shave or Men's Systems? Is there any sort of residual issues that we need to be aware of as we contemplate fourth quarter for both the sales and margin mix perspective on that?

  • Sandra J. Sheldon - CFO

  • Yes. So I'll -- let me just give you a couple of bullets and then I'll let David talk through the consumption discussion. So we had very strong growth on Men's Systems in both international and North America. Internationally, as you may recall, we had a price increase initiative in our Japan affiliate, so we had a very good experience this quarter, both from a promotional -- higher promotional in the quarter as well as better price mix. So all of those things actually drove our volumes up in Japan pretty significantly. And then within -- in Men's in North America, we had higher volumes on really again more promotional activities in the quarter. We had some -- some of it was a little bit of timing, but overall, pretty good branded men's sales.

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Yes, I think that pretty much summarize -- in the U.S., there was a timing benefit in the unmeasured channels. I think some of that will actually reverse in Q4.

  • Operator

  • Next question is from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

  • Kevin Michael Grundy - SVP and Equity Analyst

  • First, Sandy, housekeeping question. Can we get an update on the tax rate longer term? You've had a couple of favorable revisions this year, I think down a few points, so an update there, I think, would be helpful. And then the second question is on productivity in the Zero-Based savings. So we have your guidance for this year and for next, but what inning are we in here? How much opportunity is there beyond fiscal '18, would be question number one, related to that. And two, is the incentive structure in place down to the business level for employees in this area? And I guess I ask this in the context, there are some questions of long-term guidance before. It seems like given top line pressures, the company is going to become increasingly reliant on this area. So the 2% to 3% organic sales growth is still on the table. But it looks like if the new normal is sort of modest declines, which is what we've had in 2 of the past 3 years and then it looks like it'll be the case again this year. It seems like the company will have to lean again more heavily. And then related to this is high single-digit EPS growth still, which is the long-term target, is that reasonable sort of in the current environment? If things do not change, can you sort of get there? It would seem like perhaps too big of an ask in this area on productivity savings to offset the top line weakness. So there's a lot there, but your commentary would be helpful.

  • Sandra J. Sheldon - CFO

  • Okay, so I'll try and start. So on tax rate and what our longer-term rate is, just as a reminder, we are having very favorable mix this year, and that's one of the things that's driving our tax rate lower. And we also had a favorable return to provision in the quarter that's helped us. So we've had some discreet items as well as mix that have impacted our rate this quarter. I can't really give an outlook today for next year's tax rate, but certainly below a 30% rate given the mix of our international earnings. In terms of the ZBS and what to expect beyond '18, the organization is very dedicated to continuing and sustaining savings against all of our P&L line items. I don't have a good number or a good set of savings initiatives that are in play beyond '18 at this point because we've been working so hard on trying to get these savings initiatives that we have identified through '18 into our budgeting process and continue -- and trying to deliver on all of those initiatives, and there are many, many initiatives to deliver on. Certainly, those initiatives will continue to provide savings incrementally, even into '19, just at a lower amount because we need to really come back and refill the funnel in '18 to continue growing to -- increasing our savings in '19. But I can't -- I don't have an outlook for you today on it, but I will tell you that we are very committed to continuing to finding productivity in all the line items in our income statement.

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • And I'll chime in that we remain confident and committed to our algorithm, and that includes the EPS targets. To do so, certainly, we need to attack top line, we need to grow margin and we need to manage cash in our -- incentives for the whole organization are directly tied to sales, to profit and to cash, to balance sheet management. Therefore, I think the whole organization sees that we need to remain committed with a sense of urgency to manage productivity and the cost. And like Sandy said, we're really working to make ZBS part of the culture, and I'm confident we're going to keep attacking costs with urgency going forward.

  • Operator

  • Jason Gere with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

  • Jason Matthew Gere - MD and Equity Research Analyst

  • And then maybe just continuing with Kevin's question. So obviously, the margin improvement, especially in kind of Wet Shaving, was quite impressive in the quarter. So I guess, as we think about the next 12 months, category trends a little bit tougher. When you think about the acceleration in ZBS for next year, how do you kind of bucket the reinvestment rate that you might need of those cost savings in terms of some of -- both the trade spending, the A&P and understanding that's going to be up a little bit this year kind of combined? But also, when you think about the e-Commerce platform, IT capabilities, China, et cetera, do you see any change in terms of the reinvestment rate that you might see over the next 12 months versus where maybe you were 6 months ago?

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • We're in the middle of planning that now. And I don't mean to beg off, but I think it's a little premature for me to comment. You highlight, I think, some of our key priorities in our planning process. They're going to be at the top of the list. And we do have several reinvestment priorities, and that just means that we need to work harder and harder for our productivity to fuel them. Beyond that, I can't really, really speculate yet.

  • Jason Matthew Gere - MD and Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just if I could add on a quick thing. What was -- excluding, I guess, the distribution losses, can you just talk about Fem Care just a little more broadly in terms of the growth you're seeing and the efforts there to kind of stabilize that business?

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Sure. Thank you, Jason. Yes, Feminine Care for the quarter had a sequential slowdown in the -- the category was actually down about 1.5 points. Beyond that, we had several planogram disappointments where we lost items carried. We were down about 7%, driven by losses on our Sport pads and the liners. So that was the major driver, along with a loss of quality merchandising in a couple customers on our liners business. So the focus over the coming quarters and years is to really redouble efforts against fundamentals, really managing shared shelf, bringing category solutions plus innovation and the teams focused on the fundamentals.

  • Operator

  • Next question is from Jonathan Feeney with Consumer Edge Research.

  • Armani Khoddami - Research Associate

  • This is Armani Khoddami in for Jon. Maybe just a quick one about the European supply chain impact. Is there any way you could quantify that? It sounds like the price increases in Japan went well. So I'm just trying to understand internationally, what maybe a run rate growth looked like versus the impact from supply chain piece. That would be great.

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • I'm not sure I have -- it was, what, it was around 5 of the quarter shortfall, and it was a product of 2 or 3 different projects, the timing issues that all kind of aggregated to a pretty severe supply chain issue. We think it's mainly a Q3 issue, but we might have a little hangover going into Q4.

  • Operator

  • Next question is Bill Chappell with SunTrust.

  • William Bates Chappell - MD

  • David, just a question both on Fem Care and really Wet Shave. I mean, do you see signs of stabilization in the end markets in terms of the overall category seeing some stabilization or more rational pricing or are we still middle innings? I mean, how do you gauge that as we look over the next 12 months?

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Well, on the U.S. Wet Shave issue, I think that we're in the early days to middle phases of it. Certainly, the competitive -- your list price action just happened as of April, so we have a while to go before we anniversary that. And the situation is in flux. There are several channels that haven't even taken pricing down yet, so that's going to continue. We'll emphasize that, that's U.S. that I'm talking about. And I think around the world, I think while the competitive levels remain high, I don't see them -- they haven't accelerated at all. And then Feminine Care, from a competitive point of view, remains high and I think it's actually gotten a little worse for us. I don't know -- I can't speculate where that goes.

  • William Bates Chappell - MD

  • And just on that, I mean, is that being helped by the -- or accelerated by a favorable commodity environment? I mean, would you expect, if commodity started to spike, there would be any pricing or would that be an incremental headwind?

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Well, I think the competitive situation right now isn't really related to commodities. And I can't really speculate either where commodities go or what they'll do in reaction to that. Once you see right -- yes, I think that I'll leave it there.

  • Operator

  • Next question is from Stephen Powers with UBS.

  • Stephen Robert R. Powers - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • Great. Maybe if we could shed a bit more of a spotlight on e-Commerce, maybe you can provide some early learnings with respect to Tmall, just going back to that launch last quarter. And I guess, related to that as well as the direct-to-consumer experiment with Hydro online in the U.S., some of what you've announced or talked about today with respect to Europe, you've clearly begun to expand distribution of Hydro Connect. So just maybe some color on what the uptake and consumer feedback has been so far. And maybe why not launch it more aggressively in the U.S., whether through brick-and-mortar outlets or placement at Amazon, et cetera?

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Okay, great. Yes, yes, thank you. First on, you -- the Tmall. Yes, we got our new site and our new store this past quarter, and we've had -- every day actually, sales grow. We launched Hydro Connect on Father's Day to great reaction, and it's now kind of #2 on our list from a sales point of view. So we're pleased with the progress there. We're -- it's really early days to comment about sales, like sales rates in Europe. We're just getting retail placement now. So I don't have any real good color for you on that. And in terms of a broader distribution of it in the U.S., we will certainly evaluate that. We sort of like having it on our site as a differentiator and a reason to come to our site, and it's working really well in that regard.

  • Operator

  • Next question is from Kate Grafstein with Barclays.

  • Katie Sarah Grafstein - Assistant VP

  • So last quarter, I think you mentioned that Men's Systems in the U.S. declined 23%, so I'm just wondering if you could give that figure for this quarter? And then on Women's Systems, have you seen any change in that category dynamic outside of the U.S.?

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Sure. On the second question, I don't see a major trend or any really notable on that front. And the 23%, was at Nielsen? Was that...

  • Sandra J. Sheldon - CFO

  • No, that was us. And so this quarter, U.S. or North America Men's grew 15%.

  • Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to David Hatfield for any closing remarks.

  • David P. Hatfield - Chairman, CEO and President

  • Yes, thank you. And I'd like to thank everyone for your time and your interest. Have a nice day.

  • Operator

  • Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.