Equity LifeStyle Properties Inc (ELS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and thank you, all, for joining us to discuss Equity LifeStyle Properties fourth quarter and full year 2024 results. Our featured speakers today are Marguerite Nader, our President and CEO; Paul Seavey, our Executive Vice President and CFO; and Patrick Waite, our Executive Vice President and COO.

大家好，感謝大家加入我們討論 Equity LifeStyle Properties 2024 年第四季和全年業績。我們今天的特邀演講者是我們的總裁兼執行長瑪格麗特·納德 (Marguerite Nader)； Paul Seavey，我們的執行副總裁兼財務長；以及我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Patrick Waite。

In advance of today's call, management released earnings. Today's call will consist of opening remarks and a question-and-answer session with management relating to the company's earnings release. For those who would like to participate in the question-and-answer session, management ask that you limit yourself to two questions, so everyone who would like to participate has ample opportunity. As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

在今天的電話會議之前，管理層公佈了收益。今天的電話會議將包括開場白以及與管理層就公司收益發布的問答環節。對於那些想要參加問答環節的人，管理層要求你將問題限制在兩個範圍內，以便每個想要參加的人都有充足的機會。提醒一下，本次通話正在錄音。

Certain matters discussed during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements in the meanings of the federal securities laws. Our forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainty. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement any statements that become untrue because of subsequent events.

本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能包含聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。我們的前瞻性陳述受到一定的經濟風險和不確定性的影響。本公司不承擔更新或補充因後續事件而變得不真實的任何陳述的義務。

In addition, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulations G. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release, our supplemental information and our historical SEC filings.

此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們將討論美國證券交易委員會規則G 所定義的非公認會計準則財務指標。報告、補充資料和歷史美國證券交易委員會報告中。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Marguerite Nader, our President and CEO.

現在，我想將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長瑪格麗特·納德 (Marguerite Nader)。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. I am pleased to report the final results for 2024. The strength of ELS can be seen in all facets of our business. We continued our record of strong core operations and FFO growth with full year growth in NOI of 6.5% and a 5.9% increase in normalized FFO per share.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我很高興地報告 2024 年的最終結果。ELS 的優勢體現在我們業務的各個方面。我們繼續保持強勁的核心業務和 FFO 成長，全年 NOI 成長 6.5%，每股標準化 FFO 成長 5.9%。

Our year-end report is a good time to reflect on our business and our industry. Over the last 10 years, our average core NOI grew 5.3% and normalized FFO grew nearly 8%, both outpacing the REIT industry average over that time. Our balance sheet is in great shape with an average term in maturity of nine years, 20% of our debt is fully amortizing and not subject to refinance risk, and our debt maturity schedule through 2027 shows only 9% of our debt coming due compared to the REIT average of 36%.

我們的年終報告是反思我們的業務和行業的好時機。在過去的 10 年裡，我們的平均核心 NOI 成長了 5.3%，標準化 FFO 成長了近 8%，均超過了當時 REIT 產業的平均水準。我們的資產負債表狀況良好，平均期限為9 年，20% 的債務已完全攤銷，不存在再融資風險，截至2027 年的債務到期計劃顯示，與2017 年相比，只有9% 的債務到期。

Last night, we issued initial guidance for 2025. Our guidance is built based on the operating environment of each property, including a robust market survey process and communication with our residents. The results showed strength in both top line revenue and NOI. Importantly, we have continued our focus on translating NOI growth into FFO growth.

昨晚，我們發布了 2025 年的初步指引。我們的指導是根據每個物業的營運環境制定的，包括強大的市場調查流程和與居民的溝通。結果顯示，營業收入和淨營業利潤均表現強勁。重要的是，我們繼續致力於將 NOI 成長轉化為 FFO 成長。

For the full year 2025, we anticipate normalized FFO growth of 5%. This strong growth rate is possible because of the strength of our properties as well as the overall industry landscape.

對於 2025 年全年，我們預計正常化 FFO 成長率為 5%。這一強勁的成長率得益於我們強大的資產實力以及整體的產業格局。

The MH industry has evolved impressively over the last 20 years. The current homes that we are purchasing for our communities are generally two bedrooms, two bathrooms with contemporary floor plans configurations. The homes are energy efficient with centerpiece kitchens and bathrooms. The changes to the homes over time have increased our prospective customer base and have strengthened our communities.

在過去 20 年裡，MH 產業取得了令人矚目的發展。我們目前為社區購買的房屋通常為兩房、兩間浴室，並採用現代化的平面圖配置。這些住宅節能高效，設有中心廚房和浴室。隨著時間的推移，房屋的改變增加了我們的潛在客戶群，並加強了我們的社區。

Just like in any neighborhood in the US, we operate in an environment where the resale activity in our communities is important. We focus our efforts on maintaining our high-quality communities and the residents pride of ownership results in a robust home sale market for our existing customers.

就像美國的任何社區一樣，我們在一個非常重視社區轉售活動的環境中開展業務。我們致力於維護高品質的社區，居民的自豪感為我們現有的客戶帶來了強勁的房屋銷售市場。

97% of our occupancy is from residents who own their home. This high level of homeowner occupancy results in the impressive neighborhoods that our residents have helped us create. This year, we saw 9% of our residents sell their homes in our communities. The primary reasons our residents choose to sell their homes to another resident continues to be a life event.

我們的入住率有 97% 來自擁有自己房屋的居民。如此高的房主入住率促成了我們的居民幫助我們創造令人印象深刻的社區。今年，我們看到 9% 的居民出售了他們社區的房屋。我們的居民選擇將他們的房屋出售給另一位居民的主要原因仍然是生活事件。

Within our RV footprint, we have nearly 70% of our revenue derived from annual customers. These customers stay with us in park models, resort cottages and RVs. Similar to our MH customer, our RV annual customer develops roots and considers our property as their second home. Our properties offer the chance to have a second home near major metros at an affordable price. The average price of a park model sold in our communities in 2024 was $80,000. We continue to expose new customers to our properties through the transient stay, which is an important building block for our longer-term revenue stream.

在我們的 RV 業務範圍內，近 70% 的收入來自於年度客戶。這些顧客住在我們的公園模型、度假小屋和房車裡。與我們的 MH 客戶類似，我們的 RV 年度客戶也在這裡紮根，並將我們的房產視為他們的第二個家。我們的房產讓您以實惠的價格在主要大都市附近擁有第二套房。2024 年我們社區出售的公園模型的平均價格為 80,000 美元。我們繼續透過短暫住宿的方式向新客戶介紹我們的房產，這是我們長期收入來源的重要組成部分。

Next, I would like to update you on our 2025 dividend policy. The Board has approved setting the annual dividend rate of $2.06 per share, an 8% increase. The stability and growth of our cash flow, our solid balance sheet and the strong underlying trends in our business are the primary drivers of the decision to increase the dividend.

接下來，我想向您介紹我們 2025 年的股利政策。董事會已批准將年度股息率設定為每股 2.06 美元，增幅為 8%。我們現金流的穩定性和成長性、穩健的資產負債表以及業務強勁的潛在趨勢是我們決定增加股利的主要驅動力。

In 2025, we expect to have approximately $100 million of discretionary capital after meeting our obligations for dividend payments, recurring CapEx and principal payments. Over the past 10 years, we have increased our dividend by an average of 11% per year compared to the REIT average of 4.5%, and this year's dividend marks the 21st consecutive year of annual dividend growth.

到 2025 年，在履行股利支付、經常性資本支出和本金支付義務後，我們預計擁有約 1 億美元的可自由支配資本。在過去的 10 年中，我們的股息每年平均增加 11%，而房地產投資信託基金的平均股息為 4.5%，今年的股息是連續第 21 年實現年度股息成長。

I want to thank our team members for closing out another successful year. We have been able to post REIT-leading NOI growth, provide details into the strength we see in 2025 and announced an increase to our dividend because of the hard work done in the field, regional and corporate offices by our 4,000 team members.

我要感謝我們的團隊成員，帶領我們度過了另一個成功的一年。由於我們 4,000 名團隊成員在現場、地區和公司辦事處的辛勤工作，我們已經能夠實現 REIT 領先的 NOI 增長，提供有關我們在 2025 年看到的實力的詳細信息，並宣布增加股息。

I will now turn it over to Patrick to provide more details about property operations.

現在我將把話題交給帕特里克，讓他提供有關房地產運營的更多細節。

Thanks, Marguerite. In the more than 30 years since our IPO, we've made a deliberate effort to grow our portfolio in areas that provide a quality lifestyle for our customers. And those markets have experienced consistent population growth over the years.

謝謝，瑪格麗特。自首次公開募股以來的 30 多年裡，我們一直致力於在為客戶提供高品質生活方式的領域擴大我們的投資組合。這些市場多年來一直經歷著人口的持續成長。

We have divestive properties in less promising markets and recycled that capital in the coastal and Sunbelt locations where our residents and guests want to live in vacation. Our three largest states are Florida, California and Arizona. And with our winter season in full swing, I thought it would be helpful to provide some detail about our operations in these markets.

我們在前景不太好的市場中剝離了一些資產，並將這些資本重新投入到我們的居民和客人想要度假居住的沿海和陽光地帶地區。我們最大的三個州是佛羅裡達州、加利福尼亞州和亞利桑那州。隨著冬季的到來，我認為提供一些有關我們在這些市場運營的詳細資訊會很有幫助。

Our Sunbelt locations continue to see favorable population growth trends. Over the next five years, Florida, California and Arizona are expected to experience steady population growth, particularly among our focused demographic of those aged 55 plus. During that time frame, S&P Global estimates growth of 9.4% in Florida among this demographic, while California and Arizona are estimated at 6.4% and 6%, respectively.

我們的陽光地帶地區持續呈現良好的人口成長趨勢。未來五年，佛羅裡達州、加利福尼亞州和亞利桑那州預計將經歷人口穩定成長，尤其是我們關注的 55 歲以上。在此期間，標準普爾全球估計佛羅裡達州這一人口群體的成長率為 9.4%，而加州和亞利桑那州的成長率分別為 6.4% 和 6%。

Both our MH and RV portfolios in these Sunbelt markets have benefited from consistent demand. The CAGR for MH and RV revenue in the primary markets within these states emphasizes the strength of our portfolio. Primary markets in Florida, our Tampa, St. Pete on the Gulf Coast and Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach on the East Coast. In California, there are Northern California anchored by San Francisco and San Jose and Southern California anchored by Los Angeles and San Diego. And in Arizona, the primary market is Phoenix-Mesa.

我們在這些陽光地帶市場的 MH 和 RV 產品組合都受益於持續的需求。這些州主要市場的 MH 和 RV 收入的複合年增長率凸顯了我們產品組合的實力。我們的主要市場在佛羅裡達州、墨西哥灣沿岸的坦帕、聖彼得堡以及東海岸的勞德代爾堡、西棕櫚灘。加州有以舊金山、聖荷西為中心、北加州和以洛杉磯、聖地牙哥為中心、南加州。在亞利桑那州，主要市場是菲尼克斯-梅薩。

In these core Sunbelt markets, the five-year revenue CAGR for MH was nearly 6%, supported by 900 new home sales. Florida markets, Tampa, St. Pete and Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Arizona markets, Phoenix-Mesa, led the growth with 6%, while Northern and Southern California was mid-4%, largely as a result of rent control. Note that our California portfolio is more than 98% occupied, while Florida and Arizona present opportunities to increase occupancy, above our current occupancy of 95%, including ongoing expansion projects.

在這些核心陽光地帶市場，在 900 套新房銷售的推動下，MH 的五年收入複合年增長率接近 6%。佛羅裡達市場，坦帕、聖彼得堡和勞德代爾堡、西棕櫚灘，以及亞利桑那市場，菲尼克斯-梅薩，以6% 的增幅領先，而北加州和南加州的增幅則為4% 左右，這主要是由於租金管制。請注意，我們在加州的投資組合的入住率已超過 98%，而佛羅裡達州和亞利桑那州則提供了增加入住率的機會，高於我們目前的 95% 的入住率，包括正在進行的擴建項目。

For RV, the five-year revenue CAGR in these primary markets was mid-6%, largely driven by the same submarkets in Florida and Arizona. A key driver of the consistent growth in both MH and RV and our primary submarkets, our population growth that I referenced earlier, as well as the expansion opportunities that will support future growth in these Florida and Arizona markets.

對於 RV 而言，這些主要市場的五年收入複合年增長率為 6% 左右，主要受佛羅裡達州和亞利桑那州相同子市場的推動。MH 和 RV 以及我們主要子市場持續成長的關鍵驅動因素是我之前提到的人口成長，以及支持佛羅裡達州和亞利桑那州市場未來成長的擴張機會。

Over the last five years, we developed nearly 5,000 MH RV sites across the portfolio with over half of those sites in Florida and Arizona. Stabilized yields range from 7% to 10%, and we have a pipeline of projects with an additional 3,000 sites in various stages of entitlement and construction.

在過去五年中，我們在整個投資組合中開發了近 5,000 個 MH RV 站點，其中超過一半的站點位於佛羅裡達州和亞利桑那州。穩定的收益率在 7% 至 10% 之間，我們擁有一系列項目，其中另有 3,000 個站點處於不同的授權和建設階段。

Two projects that are good examples of our approach to expansions are Colony Cove MH with 293 expansion sites in Florida and Monte Vista mixed-use MH-RV with 513 sites in Arizona. Both projects are development of parcels that are part of the property rather than acquisition of additional land. Expansions of properties present an attractive risk reward because we have an in-place operating business with staffing, amenities, name recognition, and an established base of residents and guests.

兩個項目很好地體現了我們的擴建方法：位於佛羅裡達州、擁有 293 個擴建站點的 Colony Cove MH；以及位於亞利桑那州、擁有 513 個站點的 Monte Vista 混合用途 MH-RV。這兩個項目都是對地產一部分地塊的開發，而不是收購額外的土地。物業擴張能帶來頗具吸引力的風險回報，因為我們擁有現有的營運業務、員工、便利設施、知名度以及穩定的住戶和賓客基礎。

Among the benefits of our expansions are new leads generated through referrals from our core customers. Referrals represent approximately 20% of our new customers. Lease-up rates for the MH and annual RV expansions at these properties have been 30 to 40 sites per year.

我們業務擴張的好處之一是，透過核心客戶的推薦，我們獲得了新的銷售線索。推薦客戶約占我們新客戶的 20%。這些場所的 MH 和年度 RV 擴建的租賃率一直為每年 30 至 40 個站點。

During the lease-up process, RV expansions also offer flexibility to book transient reservations on baked-in sites to generate revenue as well as introducing new customers to the property, which is our best source of conversions to longer-term stays.

在租賃過程中，房車擴建還提供了靈活性，可以在現有網站上預訂臨時房間以創造收入，並為該物業引入新客戶，這是我們轉化為長期住宿的最佳來源。

We continue to see consistent demand for our properties, which supports the in-place business as well as our expansions. We have focused on stable, long-term occupancy, and that results in annual revenue streams for MH and RV representing nearly 75% of total property revenues.

我們繼續看到對我們物業的持續需求，這支持了我們的現有業務以及擴張。我們專注於穩定的長期入住率，這使得 MH 和 RV 的年收入占到總物業收入的近 75%。

Demand is demonstrated by more than 100,000 new qualified leads we receive annually from potential customers who provide their contact information as part of their inquiry for manufactured home, park model or RV annual site at one of our properties.

我們每年都會從潛在客戶那裡收到超過 100,000 條新的合格線索，這些潛在客戶在諮詢我們某個物業的預製房屋、公園模型或房車年度場地時提供了他們的聯繫信息，這證明了需求。

I'll now turn it over to Paul.

現在我將把話題交給保羅。

Thanks, Patrick. Good morning, everyone. I will discuss our fourth quarter and full year results, review our guidance assumptions for 2025, including some key considerations for the first quarter and close with a discussion of our balance sheet.

謝謝，派崔克。大家早安。我將討論我們的第四季和全年業績，回顧我們對 2025 年的指導假設，包括第一季的一些關鍵考慮因素，最後討論我們的資產負債表。

Fourth quarter normalized FFO was $0.76 per share, in line with our guidance. Growth in normalized FFO per share was 6.9% and 5.9% in the fourth quarter and year-to-date periods, respectively, compared to prior year. Strong core portfolio performance generated 7.6% NOI growth in the quarter and 6.5% year-to-date.

第四季標準化 FFO 為每股 0.76 美元，符合我們的預期。與去年同期相比，第四季和年初至今的每股標準化 FFO 成長率分別達到 6.9% 和 5.9%。強勁的核心投資組合表現推動本季淨營運收入成長 7.6%，年初至今成長 6.5%。

Core community-based rental income increased 6.1% for the full year 2024 compared to 2023, primarily because of notice increases to renewing residents and market rent paid by new residents after resident turnover. Rent growth from occupancy was 20 basis points, and we increased homeowners 379 sites during the year.

2024 年全年核心社區租金收入較 2023 年增加 6.1%，主要原因是續約居民的通知金額增加以及居民流動後新居民支付的市場租金增加。入住率帶來的租金成長為 20 個基點，我們在年內增加了 379 個業主站點。

Full year core RV and marina annual base rental income, which represents approximately 70% of total RV and marina based rental income increased 6.5% compared to prior year. Our full year core seasonal rent decreased 4.7% and transient decreased 4.3%.

全年核心房車和碼頭年基本租金收入約佔房車和碼頭總租金收入的 70%，比上年增長 6.5%。我們全年核心季節性租金下降了 4.7%，臨時租金下降了 4.3%。

The net contribution from our membership business was $59.9 million in 2024. We sold approximately 19,500 Thousand Trails camping pass memberships, and members purchased approximately 4,100 upgrades during 2024. Core utility and other income increased 7.2% for the full year compared to prior year, which includes pass-through recovery of real estate tax increases from 2023.

2024 年，我們的會員業務的淨貢獻為 5,990 萬美元。我們售出了約 19,500 張 Thousand Trails 露營通行證會員資格，會員在 2024 年期間購買了約 4,100 張升級會員資格。核心公用事業和其他收入全年較上年增長 7.2%，其中包括 2023 年起的房地產稅增加的轉嫁回收。

Full year 2024 property operating expenses increased 2.6% compared to the same period in 2023. Our income from property operations generated by our non-core portfolio was $5.4 million in the quarter and $16 million for the full year 2024.

2024 年全年物業營運費用較 2023 年同期成長 2.6%。我們非核心投資組合產生的房地產營運收入本季為 540 萬美元，2024 年全年為 1,600 萬美元。

The press release and supplemental package provide an overview of 2025 first quarter and full year earnings guidance. The following remarks are intended to provide context for our current estimate of future results. All growth rate ranges and revenue and expense projections are qualified by the risk factors included in our press release and supplemental package.

新聞稿和補充資料概述了 2025 年第一季和全年盈利預期。以下評論旨在為我們目前對未來結果的估計提供背景。所有成長率範圍以及收入和支出預測均符合我們新聞稿和補充資料中包含的風險因素。

Our guidance for 2025 full year normalized FFO is $3.06 per share at the midpoint of our guidance range of $3.01 to $3.11. We project core property operating income growth of 4.9% at the midpoint of our range of 4.4% to 5.4%. We project the non-core properties will generate between $8.8 million and $12.8 million of NOI during 2025. Our property management and G&A expense guidance range is $120 million to $126 million.

我們對 2025 年全年標準化 FFO 的預期為每股 3.06 美元，位於我們預期範圍 3.01 美元至 3.11 美元的中間值。我們預期核心房地產營業收入成長率為 4.9%，位於 4.4% 至 5.4% 區間的中間值。我們預計，非核心資產將在 2025 年產生 880 萬至 1,280 萬美元的淨營運收入。我們的物業管理和一般及行政費用指導範圍是 1.2 億美元至 1.26 億美元。

In the core portfolio, we project the following full year growth rate ranges, 3.4% to 4.4% for core revenues, 2% to 3% for core expenses and 4.4% to 5.4% for core NOI. Full year guidance assumes core MH rent growth in the range of 5.2% to 6.2%, with 10 basis points coming from occupancy.

在核心投資組合中，我們預期全年成長率範圍如下：核心收入為 3.4% 至 4.4%，核心支出為 2% 至 3%，核心淨營運收入為 4.4% 至 5.4%。全年指導假設核心 MH 租金成長在 5.2% 至 6.2% 之間，其中 10 個基點來自入住率。

Full year guidance for combined RV and marina rent growth is 2.7% to 3.7%. Annual RV and marina represents approximately 70% of the full year RV and marina rent, and we expect 5.2% growth in rental income from annuals at the midpoint of our guidance range.

全年房車和碼頭租金預計將成長 2.7% 至 3.7%。年度房車和碼頭約佔全年房車和碼頭租金的 70%，我們預計年度租金收入將成長 5.2%，處於我們指導範圍的中點。

Our first quarter guidance assumes normalized FFO per share in the range of $0.80 to $0.86, and that represents approximately 27% full year normalized FFO per share. Core property operating income growth is projected to be in the range of 3.6% to 4.2% for the first quarter. First quarter growth in MH rent is 5.8% at the midpoint of our guidance range.

我們的第一季指引假設每股標準 FFO 在 0.80 美元至 0.86 美元之間，約佔全年每股標準 FFO 的 27%。預計第一季核心房地產營業收入成長將在3.6%至4.2%之間。第一季 MH 租金成長率為 5.8%，處於我們指引範圍的中點。

We project first quarter annual RV and marina rent growth to be approximately 3.8% at the midpoint of our guidance range. Our guidance assumes first quarter seasonal and transient RV revenues performed in line with our current reservation pacing.

我們預計第一季房車和碼頭租金年增率約為 3.8%，處於指導範圍的中點。我們的指導假設第一季的季節性和臨時 RV 收入與我們目前的預訂節奏一致。

I'll now provide some comments on our balance sheet and the financing market. Our balance sheet is well positioned to execute on capital allocation opportunities. In addition to modest near-term maturities and a weighted average maturity for all debt of 8.6 years, our debt-to-EBITDAre is 4.5 times and interest coverage is 5.2 times.

我現在將對我們的資產負債表和融資市場發表一些評論。我們的資產負債表已做好準備，可以充分利用資本配置機會。除了適度的近期到期債務和 8.6 年的所有債務加權平均到期日外，我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率為 4.5 倍，利息覆蓋率為 5.2 倍。

We have access to $1.2 billion of capital from our combined line of credit and ATM programs. We continue to place high importance on balance sheet flexibility, and we believe we have multiple sources of capital available to us.

我們可以從綜合信用額度和 ATM 計劃中獲得 12 億美元的資金。我們繼續高度重視資產負債表的靈活性，我們相信我們擁有多種可用的資本來源。

Current secured debt terms vary depending on many factors, including lender, borrower, sponsor and asset type and quality. Current ten-year loans are quoted between 5.75% and 6.25%, 50% to 75% loan-to-value and 1.4 times to 1.6 times debt service coverage. We continue to see solid interest from life companies and GSEs to lend for 10-year terms. High-quality, age-qualified MH assets continue to command best financing terms.

目前有擔保債務條款因多種因素而異，包括貸款人、借款人、發起人以及資產類型和品質。目前十年期貸款利率在 5.75% 至 6.25% 之間，貸款價值比為 50% 至 75%，債務償還率在 1.4 倍至 1.6 倍之間。我們繼續看到人壽保險公司和政府支持企業對 10 年期貸款表現出濃厚興趣。優質、符合年限要求的 MH 資產繼續享有最佳融資條件。

Now we would like to open it up for questions.

現在我們願意開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Wolfe, Citi.

（操作員指示）Eric Wolfe，花旗銀行。

I was just wondering if you could talk about your build-up to your expense guidance and what the key drivers are. It's a low number following some good expense controls in 2024. So (technical difficulty)

我只是想知道您是否可以談談您的費用指導的製定過程以及主要驅動因素是什麼。由於 2024 年實施了一些良好的費用控制，這一數字較低。所以（技術難度）

Eric, can you hear -- are you still with us?

艾瑞克，你聽得到嗎──你還和我們在一起嗎？

Yeah, I'm here.

是的，我在這裡。

Okay. Wonderful. Paul will walk through that.

好的。精彩的。保羅將會走過這一切。

Sure. Sure. So we've guided to expense growth to generally track the CPI with anticipated savings in a few line items. Our assumption for real estate taxes is in line with our past experience of mid-single-digit growth and we have assumed savings in certain line items, including administrative expenses and membership commissions. So that brings us to the guide for next year, Eric?

當然。當然。因此，我們指導支出成長總體追蹤CPI，並預計在幾個項目中實現節省。我們對房地產稅的假設與我們過去中等個位數成長的經驗一致，我們假設某些項目會節省開支，包括管理費用和會員佣金。那麼這為我們帶來了明年的指南，艾瑞克？

Right. And then it looks like you're guiding to about a $4 million increase in other income and expenses from new line items, so maybe you could maybe confirm that. But I was just wondering what's causing that because I think you had a $5 million JV distribution in 2024 that won't repeat this year. So the actual increase might be more like 9 million on a core basis. Again, I'm not sure if that's right, but let me know if that's right. And if so, what's causing that?

正確的。然後看起來你預計新項目的其他收入和支出將增加約 400 萬美元，所以也許你可以證實這一點。但我只是想知道是什麼原因造成的，因為我認為你在 2024 年有 500 萬美元的合資分配，今年不會重複。因此，實際核心增幅可能更接近 900 萬。再說一次，我不確定這是否正確，但如果正確，請告訴我。如果是的話，是什麼原因造成的呢？

Yeah. So the primary driver of the increase year-over-year, it is about $4 million, as you said. And the primary driver is our expectation for sales and ancillary activity. We do, periodically, as I mentioned, when we were talking about the JV distribution that we recognized in the third quarter of 2024, we do, periodically, have those distributions, and we do anticipate a similar distribution in the first quarter of '25.

是的。因此，正如您所說，同比增長的主要驅動力是約 400 萬美元。主要驅動因素是我們對銷售和輔助活動的預期。正如我所提到的那樣，當我們談論 2024 年第三季確認的合資企業分配時，我們確實會定期進行這些分配，並且我們預計 2025 年第一季也會有類似的分配。

Got it. So about $5 million distribution in the first quarter?

知道了。那麼第一季的分配額約為 500 萬美元嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

My first question is on transient RV -- transient seasonal RV. The guidance for the first quarter implies it's down 6%, and then for the balance of the year, is about down 2%. Can you walk through kind of like your visibility to the softness in the first quarter? And then also what makes you a little bit more confident that trend's improved through the balance of the year?

我的第一個問題是關於臨時 RV——臨時季節性 RV。第一季的預期是下降 6%，而今年餘下的銷售額預計將下降 2% 左右。您能否詳細說明第一季的疲軟現象？那麼什麼使您更有信心今年的趨勢將會改善？

Sure. So Michael, as I mentioned in my remarks, we've used our current reservation pacing to put together our guidance for the first quarter. That's for both seasonal and transient. They're essentially tracking in line with our budget at this point for the quarter. I think Patrick can walk through some color by region.

當然。所以邁克爾，正如我在發言中提到的那樣，我們已經使用了當前的保留節奏來製定第一季的指引。這既適用於季節性，也適用於短暫性。目前，他們基本上按照我們本季的預算進行操作。我認為帕特里克可以按地區介紹一些顏色。

Yeah, and I'll highlight the seasonal component. Just as a reminder, roughly half of the seasonal revenue for the full year comes to us in the first quarter. And those seasonal customers are really rolling stock customers. They either drive down from the north to the Sunbelt or they fly down and they'll store their RV during the off-season or they'll drive it back up to their own destination up north. The -- some of the factors leading to the performance for the full Sunbelt season started in really Q4.

是的，我會重點介紹季節性因素。提醒一下，全年大約一半的季節性收入來自第一季。那些季節性客戶其實就是機車車輛客戶。他們要么從北方開車到陽光地帶，要么乘飛機前往，然後在淡季將房車存放起來，或者開回北方的目的地。影響陽光地帶整個賽季表現的一些因素實際上從第四季度就開始了。

I mean Q4, Q1 kind of bookend the Sunbelt season, starting late Q1. Just a reminder, the impact from the hurricanes led to a disruption of demand in Florida. And we also have experienced a lag in our Canadian business. It's partially driven by what we're hearing from our customers, some uncertainty around the presidential election that's now behind us.

我的意思是，第四季和第一季是陽光地帶季節的兩端，從第一季末開始。提醒一下，颶風的影響導致佛羅裡達州的需求中斷。我們的加拿大業務也經歷了滯後。部分原因是我們從客戶那裡聽到的消息，總統大選的一些不確定性已經過去。

Got it. And then my follow-up has to do with kind of the continuation of disruption from the hurricanes. Is there any more -- is there any sort of continued influence on the financials as a result of that? And in particular, home sales seemed like they were down pretty materially on a volume basis and also on a revenue per home basis. So maybe can you touch on a little bit on that.

知道了。我的後續關注點與颶風造成的持續破壞有關。還會有其他影響嗎－這會對財務產生什麼持續影響嗎？尤其是住房銷售量和每套房屋的收入似乎都大幅下降。所以也許您可以稍微談談這一點。

Yeah. And that was, as you pointed out, the new home sales for the quarter were down a little over 30% year-over-year. That was significantly the result of disruptions from the hurricane. We also had a relatively mild start to the Sunbelt season that contributed to the decline. And we had some locations where we sold out of inventory, so expansions that were filled up.

是的。正如您所指出的，本季新屋銷售量年減略高於 30%。這主要是颶風造成的破壞所致。陽光地帶季節的開始也相對溫和，這也是導致產量下降的原因之一。而且，有些店舖的庫存已經售罄，因此需要填補擴張庫存。

I consider the demand profile to still be very stable. And I'd highlight that a good year pre-COVID on new home sales would have been in the neighborhood of 500 to 600. And we've talked about it just over the last couple of years that there was peak demand through COVID, and that's been normalizing. That's having an impact as well. We're just getting into a normal run rate for the MH business largely.

我認為需求狀況仍然非常穩定。我想強調的是，在疫情爆發之前，新屋銷售量較好的一年應該在 500 到 600 套左右。我們在過去幾年中討論過，在新冠疫情期間，需求達到了峰值，而這種情況正在正常化。這也會產生影響。我們的 MH 業務基本上剛剛進入正常運作狀態。

And Michael, just another note in the first part of your question about Milton, all of our properties are operational and have been right after the storm, effectively.

邁克爾，關於米爾頓的問題的第一部分，我還要補充一點，我們所有的房產都已恢復正常運營，並且在風暴過後一直保持有效狀態。

Got it. So it sounds like the home sales are -- like the home sales that fell out of the fourth quarter may not come back in 2025, just as kind of like continue -- as home sales continue to normalize, is that fair?

知道了。因此，聽起來房屋銷售——就像第四季度下滑的房屋銷售可能不會在 2025 年恢復，就像房屋銷售繼續正常化一樣，這公平嗎？

Yeah, I guess that's right, but I'd also highlight that some of the disruption from the hurricane can be something that comes back in the in the following weeks. It's just people who are shopping for a home when a hurricane comes through, that can delay their plans and the ultimate decision.

是的，我想這是對的，但我還想強調的是，颶風造成的部分破壞可能會在接下來的幾週內再次出現。當颶風來臨時，正在買房的人的計劃和最終決定可能會被推遲。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

So your current guidance implies 4.8% base rental income growth for MH, RV and marina, but your total core revenue growth guidance is 3.9%. So we're wondering, what's driving that delta, whether it's rental home income, slower demand for Thousand Trails or utility and other income.

因此，您目前的指導意味著 MH、RV 和碼頭的基本租金收入成長 4.8%，但您的總核心收入成長指引為 3.9%。所以我們想知道，是什麼導致了這種差異，是出租房屋收入、千條小徑的需求放緩，還是公用事業和其他收入。

I think it's -- I would point primarily to utility and other income. And the other income, one of the drivers in there is the timing of recognition of business interruption insurance proceeds from prior storms.

我認為——我主要指出的是公用事業和其他收入。其他收入中，其中一個驅動因素是對先前風暴造成的業務中斷保險收益的確認時間。

Okay. And as a follow-up, so your Thousand Trails membership count in '24 declined year-over-year. It's now lower than 2020 levels. While you've increased sites from 24,800 in 2020 to 26,000 in '24, how long until we see a reinflection in RV demand either in revenue growth or more within the Thousand Trails portfolio?

好的。作為後續問題，'24 年您的千條小徑會員數量同比下降。現在低於2020年的水準。雖然你們已將露營地數量從 2020 年的 24,800 個增加到 2024 年的 26,000 個，但我們還要多久才能看到房車需求的重新回升，無論是收入增長還是千條小徑組合中的其他方面？

Yeah. I think, Jamie, the absolute number of members has changed over the years. And if you look at the beginning of our ownership of Thousand Trails, we -- we saw a decline in membership followed by growth. Then we saw a spike during COVID, and now we're seeing some attrition with those members.

是的。傑米，我認為多年來會員的絕對數量發生了變化。如果你回顧我們擁有 Thousand Trails 的初期，我們會發現會員數量先是下降，然後又成長。然後，我們在 COVID 期間看到了激增，現在我們看到這些成員減少。

But I think it's important to point out that over the last five years, the [duos] membership subscription revenue has increased an average of about over 5%, and our focus is on growing that recurring stable revenue. So we'll continue to do that and focus on those line items within the Thousand Trails portfolio.

但我認為有必要指出的是，在過去五年中，[duos] 會員訂閱收入平均成長了約 5% 以上，而我們的重點是增加經常性穩定收入。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，並專注於 Thousand Trails 產品組合中的那些項目。

So I guess, if you don't mind me following up, I mean, if you just think about the next few years, I mean, do you think the market is looking at this wrong? Or maybe is there a better way we should all be thinking about this because there's so much focus on declining RV revenue and just usage levels?

所以我想，如果您不介意我跟進的話，我的意思是，如果您只考慮未來幾年，我的意思是，您是否認為市場對此的看法是錯誤的？或者也許我們都應該以更好的方式思考這個問題，因為我們過於關注房車收入和使用水準的下降？

I guess I would think of it like this. I think if you look at the growth we've seen in our initial membership offering of camp passes, has really been impressive in our subscription offering. In 2013, we were selling 4,600 passes. And last year, we sold almost 20,000. So I really -- I think that shows the demand for the product. It allows people to belong to a system where they can camp in many different locations. And I think the demand is very strong and will continue.

我想我會這麼想。我認為，如果你看看我們最初為會員提供的營地通行證的增長情況，你會發現我們的訂閱服務確實令人印象深刻。2013年，我們售出了4,600張通行證。去年我們銷售了近2萬台。所以我真的——我認為這表明了對產品的需求。它允許人們加入一個系統，可以在許多不同的地方露營。我認為需求非常強勁並且將會持續下去。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫·薩誇（Steve Sakwa），Evercore ISI。

Just to kind of zero in on the RV and marina base rental income. I think you had said on the last call, and you reiterated here that the annual increases were about 5.5% to 95% of those customers. But the midpoint of that annual number is like 5.2%, so it's a little bit below the 5.5%, which would sort of imply maybe slower growth on the marina business. So could you maybe just talk about pricing on the marinas and what you're seeing kind of for '25?

只是為了集中精力於房車和碼頭基地的租金收入。我想您在上次電話會議上說過，而您在這裡重申，每年的增幅約為 5.5%，佔這些客戶的 95%。但該年度數字的中間值是 5.2%，略低於 5.5%，這可能意味著碼頭業務的成長速度會放緩。那麼，您能否談談碼頭的價格以及您對 25 年的看法？

Yeah. I mean the difference between the $5.5 million on the guidance and the $5.2 million for revenue is a lower starting occupancy point for 2025. And that's driven largely by higher attrition in RV annual guests for 2024. Typical attrition for our customers in the RV space is around 5% I'll just reference a trend through COVID that that number was lower through COVID as people were not moving around as much, had more time for leisure activities and spending some time with family and friends.

是的。我的意思是，指導價 550 萬美元和收入 520 萬美元之間的差額是 2025 年較低的起始入住點。這主要是由於 2024 年房車年度客人流失率上升所致。我們房車領域的客戶流失率通常約為5%，我只是引用了疫情期間的一個趨勢，即在疫情期間，這一數字有所下降，因為人們不再經常出行，有更多的時間從事休閒活動和與家人共度時光和朋友。

And as schedules have normalized, that attrition has accelerated. It's accelerated above the kind of the historical norm because of the kind of the pent-up duration of some of the -- some of our RV annual customers. So as we've worked our way through that attrition, we ended up having a lower starting point for 2025.

隨著行程安排逐漸正常化，人員流失也隨之加速。由於我們的部分 RV 年度客戶的壓抑時間較長，其成長速度超過了歷史正常水準。因此，隨著我們努力克服這種消耗，我們最終為 2025 年設定了一個較低的起點。

Patrick, can you just comment on where marina pricing is? Is it kind of in line with that 5.5%?

派崔克，你能評論一下碼頭的定價嗎？這和 5.5% 一致嗎？

Yeah, sure. Yeah, it's in line with that. It's in line with the overall guide.

是的，當然。是的，符合這個道理。這與整體指導意見相符。

Okay. And then maybe, Paul, just to go back to Eric's question initially on the expense guidance. There's been a lot of focus on insurance. And I also noticed that your R&M and your payroll were basically flat to down in '24. So could you maybe just speak to where you are on the insurance renewal and what steps did you take to mitigate R&M and payroll? And as you think about labor in '25, how are you sort of thinking about labor?

好的。然後保羅，也許我們只是回到埃里克最初關於費用指導的問題。保險受到了廣泛關注。我還注意到，您的 R&M 和工資單在 24 年基本持平或下降。那麼，您能否談談您在保險續保方面的進展以及您採取了哪些措施來減輕 R&M 和工資單的壓力？當您思考 25 年的勞動力時，您是如何看待勞動力的？

Sure. I mean a couple of things. As it relates to insurance, we do have an expense growth assumption. We are in the process of our renewals, so we're not disclosing that. We don't make that guidance expectation public because we are in active negotiations.

當然。我指的是幾件事。就保險而言，我們確實有一個費用成長的假設。我們正處於續約過程中，因此不會透露這一消息。我們不會公開該指導預期，因為我們正在進行積極談判。

With respect to R&M, the year-over-year comparison that we had in '24, I've talked about this a few times during 2024, that we had a favorable comp to -- a difficult start to 2023. And so we see normalizing, which is why I made reference to kind of CPI-type growth broadly across our expenses. And then I'd say the same applies to payroll as well.

關於 R&M，與我們在 24 年進行的同比比較，我在 2024 年期間已經談過幾次了，與 2023 年艱難的開局相比，我們有一個有利的比較。因此我們看到了正常化，這就是為什麼我在我們的支出中廣泛提到 CPI 類型的成長。然後我想說同樣的道理也適用於薪資單。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場部的 John Kim 說。

All the talk about Deep Sea kind of put the California wildfires in back of our minds. But I just want to make sure that there was no impact on the wildfires to your operations. And as a follow-up to Steve's questions on insurance, I mean, do you think the wildfires and Hurricane Milton will have an impact on your insurance renewal this year?

所有關於深海的討論都讓我們忘記了加州的山火。但我只是想確保野火不會對你們的營運造成影響。作為對史蒂夫關於保險問題的後續回答，我的意思是，您認為野火和米爾頓颶風會對您今年的保險續保產生影響嗎？

Sure. We have 11 properties in Southern California and -- but our properties were not impacted by any of the fires, thankfully. Where applicable, we worked with local fire departments and in many instances, our properties kind of provided staging areas for some of the fire trucks and emergency workers, and we're ready to accommodate any displaced residents and temporary workers as they rebuild the cities. So that's as it relates to California.

當然。我們在南加州擁有 11 處房產，但幸運的是，我們的房產沒有受到任何火災的影響。在適用的情況下，我們與當地消防部門合作，在許多情況下，我們的物業為一些消防車和緊急救援人員提供了集結區，我們準備在重建城市時為任何流離失所的居民和臨時工人提供住宿。這與加利福尼亞州有關。

As it relates to the insurance renewal, as Paul mentioned, it's too early to tell what the impact will be to rates for next year. Our claims are important, and it's important what's happening in the global -- the global level of claims. And I think it's too early to tell what happens outside of -- inside of the California claims.

正如保羅所提到的，至於保險續保，現在判斷其對明年費率的影響還為時過早。我們的主張很重要，全球範圍內發生的索賠事件也很重要。我認為現在判斷加州索賠區內外的情況還為時過早。

So just to clarify, your 2.5% expense guidance includes an assumption on the insurance renewal increase or ignores the impact of insurance?

所以只是為了澄清一下，您的 2.5% 費用指導包括對保險續保增加的假設還是忽略了保險的影響？

No, it includes an assumption. But as Paul said, we're in the middle of negotiations. And so we generally don't talk about what our assumptions are due to those negotiations. And we'll let everybody know on the next quarter call.

不，它包含一個假設。但正如保羅所說，我們正處於談判之中。因此，我們通常不會談論我們由於這些談判而做出的假設。我們將在下個季度的電話會議上通知大家。

Okay. And then Patrick talked a lot about expansion types and the high returns, and what you delivered last year was 736, which was in line with your guidance, but below your five-year average of over 1,000. Do you expect to get back to that 1,000 expansion site level this year? I know you mentioned last year it was somewhat timing related.

好的。然後帕特里克談了很多關於擴張類型和高回報的問題，去年你們的交付量是 736，這符合你們的指導方針，但低於你們五年平均水平 1,000 多。您預計今年能恢復到 1,000 個擴展站點的水平嗎？我知道您去年提到這在某種程度上與時間有關。

Yeah. It is timing related and also related to some longer time lines on getting projects from entitlements through completion. For 2025, I'd expect the number to be somewhere in the neighborhood of [400 to 600]. We continue to develop that time line and that pipeline, and I referenced it in my opening comments, I'd highlight that a significant portion of our expansion projects, roughly half are in Florida.

是的。它與時間有關，也與從獲得權利到完成專案的一些較長的時間線有關。到 2025 年，我預計這個數字將達到[400至600]我們將繼續開發該時間表和管道，我在開場白中提到了這一點，我想強調的是，我們的擴建項目中很大一部分，大約一半在佛羅裡達州。

If you think about the growth going on in Florida and then periodic impact from hurricanes, the level of entitlements permitting and activity that works its way through these County and City offices ends up creating some blockages, where it just -- it slows down the timing on our projects from start to finish.

如果你考慮佛羅裡達州的增長，然後考慮颶風的周期性影響，授權許可的水平以及通過這些縣和市辦公室的活動最終會造成一些障礙，這只會減慢時間從頭到尾負責我們的項目。

And what is that typical breakdown of expansions between MH and RV?

那麼 MH 和 RV 之間的擴張的典型細分是什麼？

In 2024, it was roughly I think 60-40 to the -- outside of RV. And I think that's going to come more into line leaning towards MH in coming years. We have a couple of larger projects that are going to be working their way through the pipeline.

到 2024 年，我認為 RV 外部的比例大約是 60-40。我認為未來幾年這將更加傾向於 MH。我們有幾個較大的項目正在籌備中。

And John, as a reminder, about 85% of our excess land is on the RV footprint. So just to give you a sense of that.

約翰，提醒一下，我們大約 85% 的多餘土地都位於 RV 足跡上。只是為了讓你對此有個了解。

Anthony Hau, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Anthony Hau。

Can you guys provide a little bit more color on why the guidance assumed lower non-core NOI than last year?

你們能否更詳細地解釋為什麼該指引假設非核心淨營運收入低於去年？

Sure, Anthony. So our guidance is $10.8 million at the midpoint for 2025. That compares to $16 million in '24 at just over $5 million difference. There's a slight change from properties moving from non-core to core. Really, the remainder is the impact of timing associated with insurance recovery that we received in 2024, and assumptions for '25 NOI for certain of the non-core properties returning to stabilized operations.

當然，安東尼。因此，我們的預期是 2025 年的中點值為 1,080 萬美元。相較之下，1924 年這一數字為 1,600 萬美元，差額略高於 500 萬美元。從非核心轉移到核心的屬性會發生輕微的變化。實際上，剩下的是與我們在 2024 年收到的保險追償相關的時間影響，以及對某些非核心資產恢復穩定營運的 25 年淨營運收入的假設。

Okay. So does it assume that all the properties that were affected by Hurricane Ian to be fully operational and stabilized by this year?

好的。那麼，是否假設所有受到颶風伊恩影響的財產今年都能夠全面恢復正常運作並趨於穩定？

I -- that's a bold statement, I guess, fully stabilized, but we're working to return them to stabilized operations. They do remain in non-core because they haven't yet reached that level.

我——我想，這是一個大膽的聲明，完全穩定了，但我們正在努力讓它們恢復穩定的運作。他們確實仍處於非核心狀態，因為他們尚未達到那個水平。

Got it. And then what does the guidance assume for business interruption income in 2025? I think you guys collected around $10 million in 2024.

知道了。那麼，該指南對 2025 年的業務中斷收入有何假設？我認為你們在 2024 年的收入約為 1000 萬美元。

We did collect around $10 million in 2024. That number is essentially embedded in our assumption, but is impacted by the timing of the return to normalized operations. So I don't really have a number to disclose because it toggles. As we improve operations and generate NOI, then we receive less business interruption.

我們確實在 2024 年籌集了約 1000 萬美元。這個數字基本上包含在我們的假設中，但受到恢復正常運作時間的影響。所以我實際上沒有一個數字可以透露，因為它會切換。隨著我們改善營運並產生淨營運收入，我們的業務中斷就會減少。

Wesley Golladay, Baird.

韋斯利·戈拉戴，貝爾德。

I just want to go to the annual sites. It looks like you have about 34,000, just over 34,000 annual sites. And you did mention some attrition, just curious if there's any seasonality to the attrition? And did your guidance embed that number, I guess, increasing throughout the year or decreasing throughout the year?

我只是想去參觀年度景點。看起來你們大約有 34,000 個，每年剛好超過 34,000 個站點。您確實提到了一些人員流失，只是好奇這些人員流失是否有季節性？我想，您的指導中是否包含這個數字，全年都在增加還是在減少？

Yeah. I mean, I guess I'll go back to the earlier question and answer, which is largely driven by attrition. Some of the contributing factors, Hurricanes Helene and Milton negatively impacted the business in Florida year-over-year. And we had a transition in Florida related to transitional workforce housing from Hurricane Ian.

是的。我的意思是，我想我會回到之前的問題和答案，這主要是由人員流失引起的。其中一些因素，如颶風海倫和米爾頓，對佛羅裡達州的商業產生了同比負面影響。我們在佛羅裡達州進行了與颶風伊恩造成的過渡勞動力住房相關的過渡。

The attrition that I mentioned with respect to turnover was particularly present in North and Northeast that build through COVID and then a normalization. And as that slows, expected in normal levels, I would expect we'll continue to build the business as we had pre-COVID. But that's -- really the driver of those -- of that reduction has been turnover in the annual base.

我提到的與人員流動有關的人員流失在北部和東北地區尤為明顯，這種現像是在新冠疫情期間積累起來的，隨後逐漸恢復正常。隨著這一進程放緩（預計處於正常水平），我預計我們將繼續像疫情之前那樣發展業務。但真正導致這些減少的原因是年度基數的營業額。

Okay. And then maybe going back to the Thousand Trails membership, I mean, could you maybe segment the different tiers of members? Maybe I'm looking at it -- the way I'm seeing it is, maybe it sounds like you have your maybe higher paying tiers, the people that are more of the power users. That business seems to be stable. It may be growing and you may be churning some of the lower tire business or even the free business. Is that a good way to look at it?

好的。然後也許回到千條小徑的會員資格，我的意思是，您是否可以細分不同級別的會員？也許我正在看待它 - 我的看法是，也許這聽起來像你有更高的付費層級，這些人更多的是高級用戶。那件生意看起來很穩定。它可能正在成長，你可能會攪動一些下層輪胎業務，甚至是免費業務。這是個好的看法嗎？

Yeah. I think you can see on the -- in the supplemental that shows the reduction in the promotional membership originations. So you see some of that happening inside of the portfolio, and that comes from just -- those are the RV dealer leads that we talk about, and we've seen a reduction in those and a reduction in transient activity at the property, which is how we sell the passes at the property level. And if there -- if the transient activity isn't -- if there isn't a lot of transient activity, that impacts those lower line item initial memberships.

是的。我想您可以在補充資料中看到促銷會員數量有所減少。因此，您會看到投資組合內部發生了一些事情，而這僅僅來自於——這些是我們談論的房車經銷商線索，我們已經看到這些線索的減少以及房產的臨時活動的減少，這是我們在物業層級銷售通行證的方式。如果沒有瞬時活動，如果沒有太多瞬時活動，那麼就會影響那些較低項目的初始會員資格。

Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

Omotayo Okusanya，德意志銀行。

Just wanted to touch base on the memberships again and just the sequential decrease in total membership in 4Q. Again, obviously, the seasonality associated with that business could be just felt. But it looks like the decrease was probably a little higher than we expected from just purely seasonality. Just kind of curious what those may have been going on during the quarter and if there any implement indications for how total memberships may grow in 2025?

只是想再次談談會員數量以及第四季度會員總數的連續下降。再次，顯然，與該業務相關的季節性是可以感受到的。但看起來，降幅可能比我們僅從季節性角度預期的要高一些。只是有點好奇本季可能發生了什麼，以及是否有任何實施跡象表明 2025 年總會員數量將如何增長？

Yeah. Actually, it really is -- kind of the change in the member count is really the two things. I think -- I touched on it a little bit. Just that reduced RV dealer member and then reduction in transient activity reduced the overall number of camp pass sales. So those are the two drivers that we saw. And so as transient traffic picks up and as RV dealer memberships pick up and then the conversion of those RV dealer members to paid members, you'd see an increase in the member base.

是的。事實上，會員數量的變化實際上是兩件事。我想——我稍微談到了這一點。只是減少了房車經銷商會員，然後減少了臨時活動，就降低了露營通行證的整體銷售數量。這就是我們看到的兩個驅動因素。因此，隨著臨時流量的增加和房車經銷商會員數量的增加，以及這些房車經銷商會員轉換為付費會員，您會看到會員數量增加。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just in regards to base rental income growth both for the MH business and for the RV marina business, if you just kind of stick with more of the annual business, it does sound like expectations in '25 was a bit of a slowdown in that number. Could you just talk a little bit about -- is that just kind of harder year-over-year comps? Is there anything kind of change in invested demand? Is there -- is it harder to kind of push rents? Just trying to understand a little bit of kind of on the annual business itself, even that seems to be showing some -- a little bit of a slowdown in regards to baseline income growth in '25 versus '24?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就 MH 業務和 RV 碼頭業務的基本租金收入增長而言，如果你只是堅持更多的年度業務，聽起來 25 年的預期確實有所放緩那個號碼。您能否稍微談談——這是否只是同比更難的一點？投資需求有什麼改變嗎？提高租金是否變得更加困難？只是想了解年度業務本身的情況，甚至這似乎也顯示出一些跡象——與 24 年相比，25 年的基線收入成長略有放緩？

Yeah. I mean I guess I'll start with MH. And I just highlighted that the rate growth that we're able to achieve, it's really driven and supported by the strength of our locations and just the fundamentals of that business.

是的。我的意思是我想我會從 MH 開始。我剛才強調，我們能夠實現的成長率，實際上是受到我們地理位置的實力以及業務基本面的推動和支持。

As I highlighted in my opening comments, we have some really strong demographic tailwinds that are going to work their way through not only the baby boomers, but successive aging cohorts in the US. So that's a -- we're in a very good spot with respect to long-term demand.

正如我在開場白中所強調的那樣，我們擁有一些非常強勁的人口順風，這些順風不僅會在美國嬰兒潮一代中發揮作用，而且還會在美國連續的老齡化群體中發揮作用。所以，就長期需求而言，我們處於非常有利的地位。

And I'd highlight the rate increases that we're achieving now reflect a favorable spread to CPI, and that's been a strong relationship for us over our history. But specifically, as it pertains to the slowdown in '25 versus '24, anything you can really point to there? Is it just less occupancy gains in '25 versus '24? Or like -- just kind of curious about specifically, why kind of like the 50 basis points, 100 basis points laid out.

我想強調的是，我們現在實現的利率上調反映了對 CPI 的有利影響，而這在我們的歷史上一直是一種牢固的關係。但具體來說，就 2025 年與 2024 年相比的經濟放緩而言，您能指出什麼嗎？是25年的入住率增幅比24年的要低呢？或者像 — — 只是有點好奇，具體來說，為什麼是 50 個基點、100 個基點的佈局。

I think, Tayo, if you keep in mind the composition of the MH rents, I think all the demand points that Patrick made are absolutely true, and we do continue to see increases on resident turnover to market that are 13%. But when you look at the composition of the leases, we do have a portion that are tied to CPI. And CPI is lower in '24, which drives the '25 increase than it was in '23, which drove the '24 increase.

我認為，Tayo，如果你記住 MH 租金的組成，我認為 Patrick 提出的所有需求點都是絕對正確的，而且我們確實繼續看到居民流動率向市場增長 13%。但當你查看租賃的組成時，我們確實有一部分與CPI掛鉤。24 年的 CPI 較低，這推動了 25 年的成長，而 23 年的 CPI 則推動了 24 年的成長。

[David Segall, Green Street Advisors].

[David Segall，Green Street Advisors]。

I just want to clarify a bit on the annual RV churn. Are you assuming that the churn levels for '25 are back to that historical 5% level?

我只是想澄清一下年度 RV 流失的情況。您是否認為 25 年的客戶流失率已回到歷史的 5% 水準？

Yeah, we're projecting that we're going to run the business in a way that's consistent with our history. The -- as I mentioned, there were a couple of different impacts. Certainly, the attrition is part of it, and that's normalizing as our other components of our business. But we also had some disruptions associated with hurricanes just in the ordinary course as well as a transition over the last couple of years on transitional workforce housing in Florida.

是的，我們計劃以符合我們歷史的方式經營業務。正如我所提到的，有幾種不同的影響。當然，人員流失是其中的一部分，但這與我們業務的其他組成部分一樣，正在正常化。但在正常情況下，我們也遇到了一些與颶風相關的干擾，以及過去幾年佛羅裡達州過渡性勞動力住房的過渡。

Great. And with regards to the transient and seasonal expectations over the balance of the year, the guidance seems to imply an improvement from -- for 2Q and beyond versus 1Q. And I'm just curious if you can help us understand the breakout of how much of that is attributable to an easier comp period versus improvements in underlying demand.

偉大的。而就今年餘下的短暫性和季節性預期而言，該指引似乎暗示第二季及以後的情況較第一季有所改善。我只是好奇，您是否可以幫助我們了解其中有多少是由於更容易的補償期與潛在需求的改善。

Yeah. I think, David, it goes to our process, essentially. And so when we put together our budget and then we update our forecast on a quarterly basis for seasonal and transient, we think about, first of all, the amount that we are in. The first quarter, we earn about 50% of our anticipated full year seasonal and almost 20% of our full year transient. And then it starts to shift and we earn more transient than seasonal such that by the end of the third quarter, we're at 85% of our transient rent earned.

是的。大衛，我認為，從本質上來說，這符合我們的流程。因此，當我們制定預算並按季度更新季節性和臨時性的預測時，我們首先考慮的是我們的金額。第一季度，我們的季節性收入約佔全年預期收入的 50%，而臨時性收入則佔全年預期收入的近 20%。然後情況開始發生變化，我們的臨時租金收入高於季節性租金收入，到第三季末，我們的臨時租金收入達到 85%。

But what we're talking about when we talk about that business is a business that has a short booking window, and so we don't have a significant amount of visibility. So the presentation of information as we head into each quarter is based on the reservation pacing that we see for that period. And then beyond that, we're using a flat to up, slightly, assumption for the revenues because we just don't have better visibility into the variables such as weather that drive those components of the business.

但是，當我們談論該業務時，我們談論的是預訂窗口較短的業務，因此我們的可見度不高。因此，我們在每季呈現的資訊都是基於該時期的預訂節奏。除此之外，我們對收入採用了持平或略微上升的假設，因為我們對推動業務要素發展的變數（如天氣）沒有更好的了解。

And since we have no more questions on the line, at this time, I would like to turn it back over to Marguerite Nader for closing comments.

由於我們現在沒有其他問題，因此我想將發言權交還給瑪格麗特·納德，請她做最後評論。

Thank you very much for your participation in today's call. We look forward to providing updates for you next quarter. Take care.

非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議。我們期待下個季度為您提供更新資訊。小心。