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Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to e.l.f. Beauty Third Quarter Fiscal 2018 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Allison Malkin, ICR. Please go ahead.
您好,歡迎來到 e.l.f.美妝 2018 年第三季度財報電話會議。(操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給主持人 ICR 的艾莉森·馬爾金 (Allison Malkin)。請繼續。
Allison C. Malkin - Senior MD
Allison C. Malkin - Senior MD
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss e.l.f. Beauty's third quarter 2018 earnings results. A copy of today's press release is available in the Investor Relations section of elfcosmetics.com. A recording of the call will also be available for 90 days on elfcosmetics.com.
大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們討論 e.l.f.美妝2018年第三季度財報。今天新聞稿的副本可在 elfcosmetics.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。通話錄音也將在 elfcosmetics.com 上保留 90 天。
As a reminder, this call contains forward-looking statements that are based on management's beliefs and assumptions, expectations, estimates and projections. These statements, including those relating to the company's fiscal year 2018 outlook, are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, and, therefore, actual results may differ materially. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements are detailed in today's press release and the company's SEC filings.
提醒一下,本次電話會議包含基於管理層的信念和假設、期望、估計和預測的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明,包括與公司 2018 財年展望相關的聲明,受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響,因此,實際結果可能存在重大差異。今天的新聞稿和公司向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細介紹了可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果不同的重要因素。
In addition, the company's presentation today includes information presented on a non-GAAP basis. We refer you to today's press release for a reconciliation of the differences between the non-GAAP presentations and the most directly comparable GAAP measures. With us from management today are Tarang Amin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Bailey, President and Chief Financial Officer. For today's call, Tarang will discuss the business context and actions. John will then discuss our financial performance and guidance.
此外,該公司今天的演示文稿還包括基於非公認會計原則(Non-GAAP)的信息。我們建議您參閱今天的新聞稿,以了解非公認會計原則演示文稿與最直接可比的公認會計原則衡量指標之間的差異。今天與我們一起出席的還有管理層的董事長兼首席執行官 Tarang Amin;以及總裁兼首席財務官約翰·貝利 (John Bailey)。在今天的電話會議中,塔朗將討論業務背景和行動。然後約翰將討論我們的財務業績和指導。
It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Tarang.
現在我很高興將電話轉給塔朗。
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Thanks, Allison, and good afternoon, everyone. Our third quarter results reaffirm our confidence in our 2018 guidance. Results for the quarter were ahead of expectations and were driven by strong growth in the specialty channel, the earlier timing of the holiday shipments at Target and disciplined expense and balance sheet management.
謝謝艾莉森,大家下午好。我們第三季度的業績重申了我們對 2018 年指引的信心。本季度的業績超出預期,受到專業渠道的強勁增長、塔吉特提前假期發貨以及嚴格的費用和資產負債表管理的推動。
As we talked during our last call, we are aggressively pursuing 3 strategic initiatives to improve business trends and track channels: thoughtfully increasing investment in the e.l.f. brand; focusing on key items; and optimizing 2019 shelf sets. I'll now share the progress made on these initiatives that we believe will positively impact fiscal 2019.
正如我們在上次電話會議中所說,我們正在積極推行 3 項戰略舉措,以改善業務趨勢並跟踪渠道:深思熟慮地增加對 e.l.f. 的投資。品牌;專注於關鍵項目;並優化2019年貨架組。現在我將分享這些舉措所取得的進展,我們相信這些舉措將對 2019 財年產生積極影響。
Our first focus is investing more behind the brand. We have built a brand that beauty enthusiasts love, and we've done this at a marketing investment level of approximately 3% of net sales. We continue to believe it's the right time to invest more in the brand to breakthrough in a noisy marketplace. You'll see us to be disciplined with an ROI-based test-and-learn approach and are also pursuing savings across the enterprise to help offset this investment.
我們的首要重點是對品牌進行更多投資。我們打造了一個深受美容愛好者喜愛的品牌,我們的營銷投資水平約為淨銷售額的 3%。我們仍然相信,現在是對品牌進行更多投資以在喧鬧的市場中取得突破的最佳時機。您將看到我們遵守基於投資回報率的測試和學習方法,並且還在整個企業範圍內尋求節省成本,以幫助抵消這項投資。
In the third quarter, we started testing digital awareness-building campaigns in select regional markets that focuses on our high-quality extraordinary value proposition and the fact that we're the largest mass brand that is 100% cruelty-free, which resonates strongly with our consumers. We plan to provide preliminary results of this test on our next quarterly call and additional detail on the marketing programs that we expect to phase in during 2019 to bring more consumers into the e.l.f. franchise.
第三季度,我們開始在選定的區域市場測試數字意識建設活動,重點關注我們的高質量非凡價值主張,以及我們是100% 無殘忍的最大大眾品牌這一事實,這與消費者產生了強烈共鳴。我們的消費者。我們計劃在下一個季度的電話會議上提供此測試的初步結果,以及我們預計在 2019 年分階段實施的營銷計劃的更多細節,以吸引更多消費者加入 e.l.f.特許經營權。
Our second area of emphasis in putting greater focus on key items. We have real differentiation and innovation, output and speed. We launch over 100 items per year in as fast as 13 weeks. While we're proud of this innovation capability, we also have an opportunity to bring greater focus to some of our best items.
我們的第二個重點領域是更加關注關鍵項目。我們擁有真正的差異化和創新、產量和速度。我們每年在短短 13 週內推出 100 多種產品。雖然我們為這種創新能力感到自豪,但我們也有機會更加關注我們的一些最好的產品。
In the third quarter, we put an integrated effort behind our Beauty Shield Magnetic Mask. This $24 product is a great example of our high-quality extraordinary value proposition. The only other thing like in the market is a $75 Prestige product.
第三季度,我們對美容盾磁力面膜進行了綜合努力。這款 24 美元的產品是我們高品質、非凡價值主張的一個很好的例子。市場上唯一類似的產品是 75 美元的 Prestige 產品。
In the quarter, we introduced product-specific social media messaging, influencer collaborations and PR, including a feature on the TODAY Show and quickly saw our Magnetic Mask become one of our top items. The integrated investment behind this product was quite modest, and we're encouraged to leverage similar tactics in other key items. We've already mapped out product integrations through the front half of 2019, including activations with leading national retailers.
在本季度,我們推出了特定於產品的社交媒體消息、影響者合作和公關,包括《今日秀》的一個專題,並很快看到我們的磁性面具成為我們的熱門產品之一。該產品背後的綜合投資相當有限,我們被鼓勵在其他關鍵項目中利用類似的策略。我們已經規劃了 2019 年上半年的產品集成,包括與領先的全國零售商的激活。
Our third key initiative is getting optimal assortment at retail. A major 2019 initiative that we expect to help improve productivity at retail is Project Unicorn. This is a major product, package and shelf initiative that elevates brand presentation and improves navigation. We've been planning this initiative since 2017, when retailers would be getting e.l.f. into significantly larger footprint, and we noticed that our predominantly black packaging became a sea of black in these larger sets. Project Unicorn eliminates and changes the outer packaging on select SKUs, highlighting our premium componentry and colors. Another major benefit of this project is it allows us to fit more product within existing space. We will also have improved signage, showcasing our leadership in categories like brushes and primers.
我們的第三個關鍵舉措是獲得最佳的零售品種。我們預計 2019 年有助於提高零售業生產力的一項重大舉措是“獨角獸計劃”。這是一項主要的產品、包裝和貨架計劃,旨在提升品牌展示並改善導航。我們自 2017 年起就開始計劃這項計劃,屆時零售商將獲得 e.l.f.進入更大的佔地面積,我們注意到我們以黑色為主的包裝在這些更大的套裝中變成了黑色的海洋。Project Unicorn 消除並改變了部分 SKU 的外包裝,突出了我們的優質組件和顏色。該項目的另一個主要好處是它允許我們在現有空間內安裝更多產品。我們還將改進標牌,展示我們在刷子和底漆等類別中的領導地位。
In Q3, we also finalized 2019 planogram designs for Target, Walmart and Ulta Beauty. Based on our planning with these and other key customers, we expect to maintain or grow our space in 2019 at every one of our major retail accounts. Let me tell you why. First, at both Target and Walmart, e.l.f. is the most productive brand in cosmetics. Second, we believe we're still underspaced relative to productivity at our major retailers. Last, our attractive consumer profile, strong innovation pipeline and powerful insights generated from our #1 mass cosmetics e-commerce site continue to make e.l.f. a valuable strategic partner to these national retailers.
在第三季度,我們還完成了 Target、沃爾瑪和 Ulta Beauty 的 2019 年貨架圖設計。根據我們與這些及其他主要客戶的規劃,我們預計 2019 年將在我們的每一個主要零售客戶處維持或擴大我們的空間。讓我來告訴你為什麼。首先,在 Target 和 Walmart,e.l.f.是化妝品領域最俱生產力的品牌。其次,我們認為相對於主要零售商的生產力而言,我們的空間仍然不足。最後,我們有吸引力的消費者形象、強大的創新渠道以及我們排名第一的大眾化妝品電子商務網站產生的強大見解繼續使 e.l.f.這些國家零售商的寶貴戰略合作夥伴。
In summary, we're aggressively focused on initiatives to drive growth in our business and are confident in our outlook for the remainder of the year. I'll now turn it over to John to discuss our financial results.
總之,我們積極致力於推動業務增長的舉措,並對今年剩餘時間的前景充滿信心。我現在將把它交給約翰討論我們的財務業績。
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Thanks, Tarang. For the third quarter, net sales decreased 11% to $64 million. This is better than expectation shared during our last call, in part due to the timing of our Target holiday program, a portion of which we ended up shipping earlier than expected. As a reminder, Q3 of 2017 was a very strong quarter and benefited from significant sales to discount channel customers as well as certain pipeline shipments to Walmart and CVS.
謝謝,塔朗。第三季度淨銷售額下降 11% 至 6,400 萬美元。這比我們上次電話會議期間分享的預期要好,部分原因是我們的目標假期計劃的時間安排,其中一部分我們最終比預期提前發貨。提醒一下,2017 年第三季度是一個非常強勁的季度,受益於對折扣渠道客戶的大量銷售以及對沃爾瑪和 CVS 的某些管道發貨。
Gross margin increased from 60% to 61% in the third quarter of 2018, primarily as a result of changes in customer mix and margin-accretive innovation, partially offset by unfavorable movements in foreign exchange rates versus the prior year.
2018 年第三季度,毛利率從 60% 增長至 61%,主要是由於客戶結構的變化和利潤增長型創新,但部分被外匯匯率相對於上年不利的變動所抵消。
We continue to proactively manage our expense structure. On an adjusted basis, SG&A was $28.4 million compared to $28.8 million in Q3 of 2017. Adjusted EBITDA was $15.1 million versus $17.3 million in the third quarter of 2017. Adjusted net income was $8.4 million or $0.17 per diluted share based on a weighted average diluted share count of 49.1 million.
我們繼續積極主動地管理我們的費用結構。調整後的銷售管理費用為 2840 萬美元,而 2017 年第三季度為 2880 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 為 1,510 萬美元,而 2017 年第三季度為 1,730 萬美元。調整後淨利潤為 840 萬美元,或基於 4,910 萬股加權平均稀釋股票數計算,稀釋每股收益為 0.17 美元。
In the first 9 months of fiscal 2018, we generated over $35 million in cash flow from operations, bringing our cash balance to $33.6 million as of September 30, 2018, compared to $5.7 million last year. We are pleased with our inventory management, with the quarter-ending balance of $53.4 million compared to $59.9 million in Q2 and $63.6 million last year.
在 2018 財年的前 9 個月,我們的運營現金流超過 3500 萬美元,截至 2018 年 9 月 30 日,我們的現金餘額達到 3360 萬美元,而去年為 570 萬美元。我們對庫存管理感到滿意,季度末餘額為 5,340 萬美元,而第二季度為 5,990 萬美元,去年為 6,360 萬美元。
Turning to our outlook. Based on operating performance through the first 9 months, we are reaffirming our net sales guidance of low single digits and raising the low end of the range for adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted EPS. Implicit in our guidance is the assumption that Nielsen data continues to show declines through year-end. As previously indicated, we expect growth in the specialty channel as well as pipeline for further 2019 expansion in Rite Aid to help offset these declines.
轉向我們的展望。根據前 9 個月的經營業績,我們重申了較低個位數的淨銷售額指導,並提高了調整後 EBITDA、調整後淨利潤和調整後攤薄每股收益的範圍下限。我們的指導中隱含的假設是尼爾森數據在年底前繼續顯示下降。如前所述,我們預計 Rite Aid 2019 年進一步擴張的專業渠道和管道的增長將有助於抵消這些下降。
Since our last call, the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on a majority of cosmetics imported from China, potentially escalating to 25% in 2019. As discussed, we expect to mitigate the impact of the tariffs through a combination of FX benefits, vendor concessions and selective pricing actions on a subset of our assortment. These pricing actions have already been communicated to our retailer partners.
自我們上次通話以來,特朗普政府宣布對大部分從中國進口的化妝品徵收 10% 的關稅,2019 年可能會升級至 25%。正如所討論的,我們希望通過外匯優惠、供應商優惠和對我們部分產品的選擇性定價行動相結合來減輕關稅的影響。這些定價行動已傳達給我們的零售商合作夥伴。
I would now like to ask the operator to open the call for questions.
我現在想請接線員打開提問電話。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Bill Chappell from SunTrust.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Bill Chappell。
William Bates Chappell - MD
William Bates Chappell - MD
One, I guess, quick question on adverse FX affecting gross margin. Maybe can you help understand that? I was kind of thinking that FX would be helping gross margin. And then also, any more color you can give on kind of what you've done in marketing in terms of signing new influencers or where we can see that or how we can start to see if that's working?
我想,這是一個關於不利外匯影響毛利率的快速問題。也許你可以幫助理解這一點?我認為外匯將有助於提高毛利率。然後,您還可以對您在營銷方面所做的事情(在簽約新影響者方面所做的事情)給予更多的說明,或者我們可以在哪裡看到這一點,或者我們如何開始看看這是否有效?
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Sure. Hey, Bill, it's John. And I'll take the first part and turn it to Tarang to cover the marketing piece. So you're absolutely correct that we have seen a good advantageous move in the RMB to the U.S. dollar over the last few months. The important thing to note is the comparability to 2017 as you will, obviously, take note of those costs get taken into inventory and then work their way through the P&L when that inventory is sold. So there is a bit of a lag effect relative to where that rate would have sat last year versus this year. And as of right now and to some extent, into the next quarter, we would expect that to be a headwind.
當然。嘿,比爾,我是約翰。我將把第一部分交給 Tarang 來報導營銷部分。所以你說的完全正確,過去幾個月我們看到人民幣兌美元匯率出現了有利的走勢。需要注意的重要一點是與 2017 年的可比性,因為顯然,您會記下計入庫存的成本,然後在庫存出售時通過損益表進行計算。因此,與去年和今年的比率相比,存在一定的滯後效應。截至目前,在某種程度上,到下個季度,我們預計這將是一個阻力。
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
And Bill, on your second question, regarding marketing, what I'd tell you on the influencer front is that we've -- in the third quarter, one of the things that we did on influencers was a pretty big product collaboration called Modern Metals. What this was is it stems from one of our Beautyscape events, where we actually had a competition amongst our influencers to help design a unique collection and line. In this particular one, the inspiration was kind of metal texture. It's an edgy kind of style coming out of New Orleans. And we had a group of influencers that basically developed with us a collection of eyeshadow palette, blush, highlighter palette, lip gloss, matte lipstick. And the entire collection, I think, costs about $32. We introduced it both on elfcosmetics.com as well as Ulta Beauty. While early, in the first few weeks, it's already our #2 item on elfcosmetics.com. So it's an example of doing something a bit different with the group of influencers against a set of products. In addition, as we said in our prepared remarks, we're also testing awareness tactics as well as sampling. We'll be able to talk to you in the next call in terms of what we're seeing on these test-and-learn and what that might mean in terms of ramping up in 2019.
比爾,關於你的第二個問題,關於營銷,我要告訴你的是,在影響者方面,我們在第三季度對影響者所做的事情之一是一個相當大的產品合作,稱為 Modern金屬。這源於我們的一次 Beautyscape 活動,我們實際上在我們的影響者之間進行了一場競賽,以幫助設計一個獨特的系列和產品線。在這個特別的例子中,靈感是一種金屬質感。這是一種來自新奧爾良的前衛風格。我們有一群有影響力的人,他們基本上和我們一起開發了一系列眼影調色板、腮紅、熒光筆調色板、唇彩、啞光唇膏。我認為整個系列的售價約為 32 美元。我們在 elfcosmetics.com 和 Ulta Beauty 上都介紹了它。雖然還為時尚早,但在最初的幾週內,它已經成為我們在 elfcosmetics.com 上排名第二的商品。因此,這是一個與影響者群體針對一組產品做一些不同的事情的例子。此外,正如我們在準備好的發言中所說,我們還在測試意識策略和抽樣。我們將在下次電話會議中與您討論我們在這些測試和學習中看到的情況以及這對 2019 年的提升可能意味著什麼。
William Bates Chappell - MD
William Bates Chappell - MD
Okay. And then just one follow-up. As you look towards next year with -- I mean, any further thought with tariffs coming in and what pricing you may need or are looking into?
好的。然後只有一個後續行動。當你展望明年時——我的意思是,對即將到來的關稅還有什麼進一步的想法,以及你可能需要或正在考慮什麼定價?
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Yes, Bill, it's John. So we have, obviously, been thinking about the tariff picture for some time, obviously, as we mentioned in the commentary, the 10% that already went into effect and 25% that's on the table to go into effect at the beginning of next year. Our plan is to mitigate that through a combination of really 3 things: one, the FX and the advantaged benefit that we'll have heading into 2019. Certainly, question mark as to where the rate goes from here. But certainly, relative to where rates stand and the inventory timing I mentioned, we see some real benefit in '19. Second is concessions from our vendor partners, who we have long-standing partnerships with. We've already secured a level of concessions, and to the extent that the next year of tariffs go through, additional concessions would be coming online. And then to your question, the third piece is strategic pricing on a selective subset of our assortment. And for us, we've long had pricing power on the brand. I think, starting roughly a year ago, when the border tax came into play, we've thought a lot about various pricing strategies. Our approach has been to look across the entire portfolio SKU by SKU, competitively assess what else is in the market and where competitive items are priced, also where competitive items are sourced because as you know, many competitive items are actually being produced in country as well and then, most importantly, understanding kind of where our value proposition sits relative to that competitive matrix. And so to the extent 25% went through, we would be taking pricing on a subset of the overall assortment, but feel very good about some of the underlying assumptions and the process that we went through.
是的,比爾,是約翰。因此,顯然,我們已經考慮關稅情況有一段時間了,顯然,正如我們在評論中提到的,10% 已經生效,25% 將於明年初生效。我們的計劃是通過結合三件事來緩解這一問題:一是外彙和我們將在 2019 年獲得的優勢。當然,對於利率的走向還存在疑問。但當然,相對於我提到的利率水平和庫存時間,我們在 19 年看到了一些真正的好處。其次是我們與我們有著長期合作夥伴關係的供應商合作夥伴的讓步。我們已經獲得了一定程度的優惠,只要明年的關稅生效,就會有更多優惠。然後針對您的問題,第三部分是對我們精選的產品組合進行戰略定價。對於我們來說,我們長期以來對品牌擁有定價權。我認為,從大約一年前開始,當邊境稅開始發揮作用時,我們對各種定價策略進行了很多思考。我們的方法是逐個查看整個產品組合SKU,以競爭性方式評估市場上的其他商品、競爭性商品的定價以及競爭性商品的來源,因為如您所知,許多競爭性商品實際上是在以下國家/地區生產的:然後,最重要的是,了解我們的價值主張相對於競爭矩陣的位置。因此,在 25% 的情況下,我們將對整個品種的一個子集進行定價,但對一些基本假設和我們經歷的過程感到非常滿意。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Oliver Chen from Cowen and Company.
我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Oliver Chen。
Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Regarding your key partners, Walmart and Target, what are your thoughts on how the assortments are evolving in terms of the right products at the right time and the right place because it was previously communicated that they hadn't necessarily stocked into some of the products that were -- your customers were responding well to in your own direct channels. And on the Unicorn strategy, if you could just help us understand how to model the timing of Unicorn in terms of sell-in, and what Unicorn does to your breadth versus depth and AUR, that would be helpful.
關於您的主要合作夥伴沃爾瑪和塔吉特,您對在正確的時間和正確的地點提供正確的產品方面如何演變有何看法,因為之前有消息稱他們不一定會庫存到某些產品中那是——您的客戶在您自己的直接渠道中反應良好。關於獨角獸策略,如果您能幫助我們了解如何在賣出方面對獨角獸的時機進行建模,以及獨角獸對您的廣度、深度和 AUR 的影響,那將會很有幫助。
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Sure. This is Tarang. So when we think about the assortment of our customers, we talked in the last call that we're having enough of our new products into these customers. When we take a look at kind of what our modeling was in terms of new products minus the beats, those items are actually going quite well. Carryforwards were down, and so in the balance, getting more of our new products in was a key imperative of ours. We also described that Project Unicorn is our main project to do that. And I think not everyone kind of understands really what Unicorn is. I'll just take a couple of minutes to kind of back up. This is an initiative that we first started working in 2017, and it really stemmed as customers started rewarding us with more space. One of the things that we noticed was the elegant black packaging that we have that looks so great in a smaller set started looking like a sea of black in much larger sets. So we've began the initiative of Unicorn of how do we help customers navigate those sets even better. And then as you'll hear, a big benefit of that was also how do you get more product on to the shelf. And so we took Unicorn. What it is, is the components in Unicorn, is first and foremost, is we take some of our products out of its black outer packaging. We recently submitted a number of design patterns for a unique packaging approach that allows us to not only take those products out of the black packaging, but allow it to be shelved either on shelves or on pegs that a lot of our key retailers, like a Target and Walmart, would use. The benefit here is it showcases the premium componentry that e.l.f. has, the colors we have. But the other big benefit that it has is it allows us to put as much as 20% more product in the existing space. And we're investing some of that pickup in efficiency in improved signage, which also will help in navigation, particularly in getting people to our key segments like our #1 brushes, our #1 primers as we go through. So in terms of the timing of Unicorn, we've recently completed drawing planograms for Target, Walmart and Ulta Beauty. The Unicorn will really hit shelves kind of in the first quarter of 2019. So during our next call, we'll be able to provide some more perspective in terms of how Unicorn is rolling out. But the good news is, we do have confirmation in terms of how many SKUs as well as for our set designs that we're going to be able to get and, in every case, be able to pick up additional new items that we can put into those stores.
當然。這是塔朗。因此,當我們考慮客戶的類別時,我們在上次電話會議中談到,我們已經向這些客戶提供了足夠的新產品。當我們看看我們的模型在新產品減去節拍方面的情況時,這些項目實際上進展順利。結轉減少了,因此總的來說,引進更多新產品是我們的當務之急。我們還描述了“獨角獸計劃”是我們實現這一目標的主要項目。我認為並不是每個人都真正理解獨角獸是什麼。我只需要幾分鐘時間進行備份。這是我們於 2017 年首次開始實施的一項舉措,它真正源於客戶開始獎勵我們更多的空間。我們注意到的一件事是我們擁有的優雅的黑色包裝,在較小的套裝中看起來非常好,但在較大的套裝中卻看起來像一片黑色的海洋。因此,我們開始了 Unicorn 計劃,研究如何幫助客戶更好地瀏覽這些設備。然後,正如您將聽到的,這樣做的一大好處是您如何將更多產品放到貨架上。所以我們選擇了獨角獸。它是什麼,是 Unicorn 的組件,首先也是最重要的,是我們從黑色外包裝中取出我們的一些產品。我們最近提交了一些獨特包裝方法的設計模式,使我們不僅可以將這些產品從黑色包裝中取出,還可以將其擱置在貨架上或釘子上,我們的許多主要零售商(例如塔吉特和沃爾瑪都會使用。這裡的好處是它展示了 e.l.f. 的優質組件。有,我們有的顏色。但它的另一個大好處是它允許我們在現有空間中放置多達 20% 的產品。我們正在投資一些提高標牌效率的方法,這也將有助於導航,特別是讓人們到達我們的關鍵部分,例如我們的#1刷子,我們的#1底漆。所以就Unicorn的時機而言,我們最近完成了Target、Walmart和Ulta Beauty的貨架圖繪製。Unicorn 將於 2019 年第一季度真正上架。因此,在下次電話會議中,我們將能夠就獨角獸的推出方式提供更多觀點。但好消息是,我們確實確認了我們將能夠獲得多少 SKU 以及我們的套裝設計,並且在任何情況下,我們都能夠挑選我們可以購買的其他新商品放入那些商店。
Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. And when you step back, are you feeling like you're on track for like sustainable positive revenue growth or -- and when you look at the -- your own initiatives relative to how the market and the cosmetics market or as well as influencer market is evolving? Or what are the key factors you're monitoring in terms of visibility towards consistent growth?
好的。當你退後一步時,你是否感覺自己正在實現可持續的正收入增長,或者——當你審視時——你自己相對於市場和化妝品市場或影響者市場的舉措正在進化?或者您在持續增長的可見性方面監控的關鍵因素是什麼?
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Hey, Oliver, it's John. Obviously, as we think about 2019 and beyond, be in a much better position to talk about how we see kind of the next year playing out when we're together next on the next quarterly call. Obviously, you guys can see what we've assumed for this year, which is continued confidence in kind of finishing the year out strong here. And I think we've talked a little bit about the few areas that we're highly focused on to continue addressing growth in track channels. Obviously, other parts of our business, including specialty, with account cycle to where we're seeing very good growth, but for us, we want to make sure that we can bring everything up to our expectation.
嘿,奧利弗,我是約翰。顯然,當我們思考 2019 年及以後的情況時,當我們在下一個季度電話會議上聚在一起時,我們可以更好地談論我們對明年的看法。顯然,你們可以看到我們對今年的假設,即繼續有信心在這裡強勁地結束這一年。我認為我們已經討論了一些我們高度關注的幾個領域,以繼續解決軌道渠道的增長問題。顯然,我們業務的其他部分,包括專業業務,我們的客戶週期都看到了非常好的增長,但對我們來說,我們希望確保一切都能達到我們的預期。
Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. Just last, a product question. As you think about the right key items and where to simplify to amplify, what do you envision as the next kind of key platforms that you'll focus on in terms of undertaking the strategy you articulated?
好的。最後一個產品問題。當您考慮正確的關鍵項目以及在哪裡進行簡化和放大時,您認為在實施您所闡述的戰略方面您將重點關注的下一種關鍵平台是什麼?
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Yes. For us, Oliver, it really is about innovating across all of our key segments to make sure we're well positioned in terms of where the consumer goes. A couple of things I'd highlight. Obviously, we have a lot of confidence and hope for our skincare line. This is a line that in the last couple of years was introduced and we're seeing great results. One of the things we talked about was how Magnetic Mask really popped in to being one of our top items behind the integrated focus on key items. And so you'll see that key item focus across the range, and that would not seem to allow any one segment outside of skincare, which we're still on the early days, out to across eyes, lips, face, tools and skincare. You'll see key item focus on each of those areas or key-segment focus on each of those areas. A great example from this last quarter being our $5 Sheer Matte Liquid Lipstick which has been a good category, we have a product that frankly compares to Prestige item that's around $22. And it's just another example of making sure we get this continuous stream of innovation to tap into what our consumers are looking for.
是的。對於我們來說,奧利弗,這實際上是在我們所有關鍵領域進行創新,以確保我們在消費者的去向方面處於有利地位。我要強調幾件事。顯然,我們對我們的護膚系列充滿信心和希望。這是過去幾年推出的一條產品線,我們看到了很好的結果。我們討論的一件事是,磁性面具如何真正成為我們重點關注關鍵項目背後的首要項目之一。所以你會看到這個關鍵項目集中在整個系列中,這似乎不允許任何一個護膚品之外的細分市場,我們仍處於早期階段,涉及眼部、嘴唇、面部、工具和護膚品。您將看到每個領域的關鍵項目焦點或每個領域的關鍵細分焦點。上個季度的一個很好的例子是我們的 5 美元純粹啞光液體唇膏,這是一個很好的類別,坦率地說,我們有一款產品可以與 22 美元左右的 Prestige 產品相媲美。這只是確保我們獲得持續創新來滿足消費者需求的另一個例子。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Stephanie Wissink from Jefferies.
我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephanie Wissink。
Stephanie Marie Schiller Wissink - Equity Analyst
Stephanie Marie Schiller Wissink - Equity Analyst
I have 3 housekeeping questions, and John or Tarang, for either of you. The first is if you can just give us a sense of what your key item proportionality is as a percentage of the mix today. So if you look at brushes, primers, so your key lead generation items, what percentage of your total sales do those represent today?
我有 3 個家政問題要問你們中的任何一個,還有約翰或塔朗。第一個是您能否讓我們了解您的關鍵項目比例在今天的組合中所佔的百分比。因此,如果您查看刷子、底漆等關鍵的潛在客戶開發產品,這些產品佔您今天總銷售額的百分比是多少?
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
So we haven't disclosed, Steph, for competitive reasons kind of what those -- on this, the key item focus, what that represents. What I can tell you is, if you take a look at, well, starting with some of our key segments, we have America's #1 brushes, America's #1 primers. I talked about some of the key strengths that we have within that. The way we typically look at it is also from an innovation, new item standpoint. We've historically looked at kind of the 3M metric of kind of what percent of our sales come from items we launched in the last few years, and it's pretty high percentage on e.l.f. And so we kind of use that matrix both ways in terms of what are the cores within the segment and then what are the cores in terms of the news that our consumers are looking for. But we can put some thought into it by next call if we want to break out first and add more dimension to the key item focus.
因此,斯蒂芬,出於競爭原因,我們沒有透露這些內容——在這一點上,關鍵項目的重點是什麼,它代表了什麼。我可以告訴你的是,如果你看一下,好吧,從我們的一些關鍵部分開始,我們有美國排名第一的刷子,美國排名第一的底漆。我談到了我們在這方面的一些關鍵優勢。我們通常也是從創新、新產品的角度來看待它。我們過去曾研究過 3M 指標,即我們的銷售額中有多少百分比來自我們在過去幾年推出的產品,並且在 e.l.f. 上這個比例相當高。因此,我們以兩種方式使用該矩陣,即細分市場中的核心是什麼,以及消費者正在尋找的新聞的核心是什麼。但是,如果我們想首先突破並為關鍵項目焦點添加更多維度,我們可以在下一次調用時對此進行一些思考。
Stephanie Marie Schiller Wissink - Equity Analyst
Stephanie Marie Schiller Wissink - Equity Analyst
And then just 2 really quick ones. You mentioned marketing as a percentage of sales around 3%. Have you talked about how high you're willing to take that? And what your model would support in terms of marketing spend? And then, John, I'm wondering if you could just be willing to quantify the pull-forward in the Target holiday set this year versus what your original plan was.
然後只有兩個非常快的。您提到營銷佔銷售額的百分比約為 3%。你有沒有談過你願意接受多高的要求?您的模型在營銷支出方面將支持什麼?然後,約翰,我想知道您是否願意將今年目標假期的提前量與您最初的計劃進行比較。
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Sure, Steph. Yes. I'll take both. Obviously, we'll be in a position to kind of frame up more specifics around those spend levels when we get into the 2019 call next quarter. But we do acknowledge there has been a little bit of a confusion out there in the market coming out of the last call as to where those levels will go over time and some that we're fearful that we may actually need to spend at the levels of many of our legacy competitors. We're talking about is not taking our levels up anything close to that, in fact, far from it. I think as you heard on the commentary, as we think about putting incremental spend against the brand, which is the right long-term decision for us, it's really about phasing that in over time in a very ROI-based way and so certainly would expect to see benefits yielding from that spend. But versus some big bang, I think you'll see that layered in over time. The other thing that I would say, which we'll also be in a position to quantify much better when we get into 2019, is that we are actively focused on a number of different cost savings initiatives to be able to free up additional capacity through our P&L to be able to offset some of those investments. So more to come, certainly, as we go over time. And then your other question, Steph? Apologies.
當然,斯蒂芬。是的。我兩個都要。顯然,當我們下季度召開 2019 年電話會議時,我們將能夠圍繞這些支出水平制定更多細節。但我們確實承認,在上次電話會議中,市場對於這些水平隨著時間的推移將走向何方存在一些困惑,並且我們擔心我們實際上可能需要在這些水平上進行支出我們的許多傳統競爭對手。我們談論的並不是將我們的水平提高到接近這個水平,事實上,還遠遠沒有達到這個水平。我認為正如您在評論中聽到的那樣,當我們考慮對品牌進行增量支出時,這對我們來說是正確的長期決定,這實際上是隨著時間的推移以一種非常基於投資回報率的方式逐步實施,因此肯定會期望看到這筆支出帶來的好處。但與一些大爆炸相比,我認為隨著時間的推移,你會看到它是分層的。我要說的另一件事是,當我們進入 2019 年時,我們也將能夠更好地量化,即我們正在積極關注許多不同的成本節約舉措,以便能夠通過以下方式釋放額外的產能:我們的損益表能夠抵消其中一些投資。隨著時間的推移,當然還會有更多的事情發生。那麼你的另一個問題,斯蒂芬?道歉。
Stephanie Marie Schiller Wissink - Equity Analyst
Stephanie Marie Schiller Wissink - Equity Analyst
Just on the Target pull-forward in the quarter on your holiday's set.
就在你的假期設定的季度目標提前。
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Yes, yes. So it was a few million dollars. As you recall, on the last call, we did mention that Target did ask us to ship a portion of their holiday program early. As we were together on the last call, our expectation was that, that program would go out exclusively in the fourth quarter this year, and they ended up, similar to 2017, asking us to ship a portion again early. So it was a few million that shifted from Q4 to Q3.
是的是的。所以這是幾百萬美元。您還記得,在上次通話中,我們確實提到塔吉特確實要求我們提前運送他們的部分假期計劃。當我們一起參加最後一次電話會議時,我們的預期是,該計劃將在今年第四季度獨家推出,而他們最終與 2017 年類似,要求我們再次提前發貨一部分。因此,從第四季度轉移到第三季度的人數有幾百萬。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog from Wells Fargo.
我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的邦妮·赫爾佐格。
Joseph Bernard Lachky - Senior Equity Analyst
Joseph Bernard Lachky - Senior Equity Analyst
This is actually Joe Lachky calling in for Bonnie. So just to follow up on the Q3, Q4, so do you still expect Q4 growth to be in that mid-single to high single-digit range? Or with the pull-forward, could it fall below that?
這實際上是喬·拉奇基 (Joe Lachky) 給邦妮打電話。那麼,為了跟進第三季度、第四季度,您仍然預計第四季度的增長將在中個位數到高個位數範圍內嗎?或者隨著前拉,它會跌破這個水平嗎?
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Joe, I would, obviously, characterize a bit of that Target holiday timing, just with Steph's question there, and obviously, implicit in the low single-digit guidance, I think you will, obviously, assume that some of what we would have assumed coming in, in the fourth quarter moved into Q3. So relative to what we talked about on the last call, you may see that reduced by the amount of that holiday shift.
喬,顯然,我會描述目標假期時間的一些特徵,就斯蒂芬的問題而言,顯然,隱含在低個位數的指導中,我認為你顯然會假設我們假設的一些內容進來,第四季度進入第三季度。因此,相對於我們在上次電話會議中討論的內容,您可能會發現假期班次的數量有所減少。
Joseph Bernard Lachky - Senior Equity Analyst
Joseph Bernard Lachky - Senior Equity Analyst
Okay. That makes sense. And then looking forward, I know you don't plan to give guidance for fiscal '19 until February. But I wanted to see if you could build on your comments last quarter when you said that you expected fiscal '19 to be a low-growth year. And I was wondering if you still expected that to be the case, I guess especially since there seems to be several positives looking into next year. In addition to the easy comps, you got benefits from the stepped-up advertising and Project Unicorn. So maybe if you could elaborate a little bit on kind of a longer-term outlook.
好的。這就說得通了。然後展望未來,我知道你們不打算在 2 月份之前提供 19 財年的指導。但我想看看您是否可以延續上個季度的評論,當時您表示預計 19 財年將是低增長一年。我想知道你是否仍然期望這種情況,我想特別是因為明年似乎有一些積極的因素。除了簡單的補償之外,您還可以從加強的廣告和獨角獸計劃中受益。所以也許你可以詳細闡述一下長期前景。
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Yes, Joe. Unfortunately, nothing to add to what we've already said, but very focused in a few different areas which you mentioned. And we'll be looking forward to be able to quantify some of that when we're together in February.
是的,喬。不幸的是,沒有什麼可以補充我們已經說過的內容,但非常關注您提到的幾個不同領域。當我們二月份聚在一起時,我們將期待能夠量化其中的一些內容。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Erinn Murphy from Piper Jaffray.
我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Erinn Murphy。
Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst
Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst
A couple of questions for me. First, on international. I didn't hear you talk about that during the prepared remarks. Can you just give us any updates on how your U.K. market is performing? And maybe just kind of help quantify how are sellouts trending there for the brand, given it's so much earlier in its growth phase versus here in the U.S.?
有幾個問題問我。首先,關於國際。我沒有聽到你在準備好的發言中談到這一點。您能給我們介紹一下英國市場的最新表現嗎?鑑於該品牌的增長階段比美國要早得多,也許這有助於量化該品牌的銷售趨勢如何?
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Sure. Hi, Erinn, it's Tarang. We feel great about our international business. So specifically, on the U.K., as you know, we launched into Superdrug last year. We're now in a good portion of their doors. In Q3, we actually entered Boots, both online as well as in 40 of their top stores. So Boots is starting to kind of both test and rollout e.l.f., and so we feel great about our U.K. business and kind of where we're headed. And it's very much along the strategy that we see where we've had really good success going kind of direct to key accounts, proving the brand out in a particular retailer and then expanding from there. We talked on last call in terms of some of the caboose we're making in Germany as well. I would tell you, though, broader in terms of international, it's a combination of really 2 things. One is accelerating our move of going more direct versus through distributors. We have some very good distributors, but similar to when we bought the company 5 years ago, we spent a lot of time, I'd call it, unwinding certain distributor relationships for our ability to go more intensely just in a particular market directly. The U.K. is probably the best example there so far, where about 2.5, 3 years ago, we changed from a distributor who was handling our e-commerce business to be able to do it ourselves. That, we believe, set kind of the groundwork for our entry into Superdrug. We've liked what we were seeing, by going to Superdrug directly and now with Boots. And so you see, as part of international strategy, really both happening concurrently, unwinding certain distributor relationships and going much more intensely directly, which we see is a very efficient and scalable model for us to continue to grow international.
當然。嗨,艾琳,我是塔朗。我們對我們的國際業務感覺良好。具體而言,如您所知,我們去年在英國推出了 Superdrug。我們現在已經進入了他們大門的很大一部分。在第三季度,我們實際上進入了 Boots,包括在線商店以及他們的 40 家頂級商店。因此,Boots 開始進行 e.l.f. 測試和推出,因此我們對我們的英國業務以及我們的發展方向感到非常滿意。在很大程度上,我們看到我們在直接接觸關鍵客戶、在特定零售商中證明品牌,然後從那裡擴張方面取得了非常好的成功。我們在上次通話中談到了我們也在德國製造的一些守車。不過,我想告訴你,從更廣泛的國際角度來看,這實際上是兩件事的結合。一是加快我們的行動,採取更直接的方式,而不是通過分銷商。我們有一些非常好的分銷商,但與我們 5 年前收購該公司時類似,我們花了很多時間,我稱之為,解除某些分銷商關係,以便我們能夠更深入地直接進入特定市場。英國可能是迄今為止最好的例子,大約 2.5、3 年前,我們從負責電子商務業務的經銷商轉變為能夠自己做電子商務業務。我們相信,這為我們進入 Superdrug 奠定了一定的基礎。我們很喜歡我們所看到的,直接去 Superdrug,現在又去 Boots。所以你會看到,作為國際戰略的一部分,這兩者實際上是同時發生的,解除某些經銷商關係並更加直接地進行,我們認為這是我們繼續國際化發展的一個非常有效和可擴展的模式。
Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst
Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst
And then just 2 clarifications. Just on pricing, kind of post tariff, and as you think about the 25% tariff into next year, you said you're taking kind of select pricing across the kind of product portfolio. You've talked to your retailers about that. On average, how much are you taking at pricing? And is that enough to neutralize the tariff? Or should we anticipate some kind of a bucket of margin pressure if you can't fully neutralize the 25% increase?
然後只有 2 點澄清。就定價而言,後關稅,當你考慮明年 25% 的關稅時,你說你正在對各種產品組合採取某種選擇定價。您已與零售商討論過此事。平均而言,您的定價是多少?這足以抵消關稅嗎?或者,如果您無法完全抵消 25% 的增長,我們是否應該預見到某種程度的利潤壓力?
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
So Erinn, it is on a subset of the assortment. So obviously, less than half, just to put a finer point on that, and it really is SKU-specific. So again, our process really did go item by item and considered what else is out there competitively and what our core value proposition is to the consumer. So the amount of pricing really does vary depending on the item and that kind of competitive matrix overall. To your question, while we'll be able to quantify puts and takes when we're together in February, our assumption is that we will be able to offset the entire impact of the 25% tariff next year.
Erinn,它是該品種的一個子集。很明顯,不到一半,只是為了更詳細地說明這一點,而且它確實是特定於 SKU 的。再說一次,我們的流程確實逐項進行,並考慮了其他競爭因素以及我們對消費者的核心價值主張是什麼。因此,定價金額確實會根據商品和總體競爭矩陣的不同而有所不同。對於你的問題,雖然我們在 2 月份聚在一起時將能夠量化看跌期權和索取期權,但我們的假設是我們將能夠抵消明年 25% 關稅的全部影響。
Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst
Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst
Okay. And then just a last question, just as we think about 2019 resets for retailers, are there any major changes in timing from what you can see now in terms of when these retailers will change 2019 versus 2018? I think Walmart was a little bit later just in most recent years. So just curious on how you're thinking about the product fill as we go throughout the balance of the fourth quarter and into next year.
好的。最後一個問題,正如我們考慮零售商 2019 年的重置一樣,從您現在所看到的來看,這些零售商 2019 年與 2018 年相比,在時間上是否有重大變化?我認為沃爾瑪最近幾年來得有點晚。因此,我很好奇,當我們回顧第四季度的剩餘時間和明年的情況時,您如何看待產品填充。
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Yes, I believe it's -- right now what we're seeing is pretty similar timing to what we saw this year in terms of when resets will happen. So Walmart's going to stick to the same fewer week in their fiscal year, they're changing over. Target's pretty much the same and Ulta is as well. So I don't think you'll see any big shifts from -- between fiscal years in terms of our expectations that we said could sometimes happen if somebody goes there around earlier or later.
是的,我相信,現在我們看到的重置時間與今年的重置時間非常相似。因此,沃爾瑪將在其財政年度中堅持同樣減少一周的時間,他們正在改變。Target 幾乎相同,Ulta 也是如此。因此,我認為就我們的預期而言,您不會看到財政年度之間出現任何重大變化,我們說過,如果有人提前或推遲去那裡,有時可能會發生這種情況。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。
Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD
Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD
So my questions are, first, on the SG&A spending being down year-over-year. Can you talk about the drivers for the decline? This is the second quarter of SG&A declining. Do you see here in absolute terms and also on a percentage basis? So are you thinking that the SG&A spending is supportive of resuming the growth into next year, or we will need to invest more in infrastructure going forward? And I have a follow-up question.
所以我的問題首先是SG&A 支出逐年下降。您能談談下降的驅動因素嗎?這是 SG&A 下降的第二季度。您在這裡看到的是絕對值還是百分比?那麼,您是否認為 SG&A 支出有助於明年恢復增長,還是我們未來需要在基礎設施方面進行更多投資?我還有一個後續問題。
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
So Andrea, obviously, spend within a quarter, so tough to unpack that too much other than to say we're quite pleased with the kind of disciplined expense management that we've had, control in certain areas like overhead as an example. As we kind of think about next year in investment levels, I think the 2 kind of major moving pieces that we've talked about quite a bit are the increased brand support, which is an investment that we're quite excited about as well as the series of cost savings initiatives that we're currently pursuing to help offset that spend, but nothing else that I would point you to.
因此,安德里亞顯然在一個季度內支出了這麼多,除了說我們對我們所擁有的那種嚴格的費用管理非常滿意之外,很難解釋太多,例如在某些領域的控制,例如管理費用。當我們考慮明年的投資水平時,我認為我們已經討論過很多次的主要推動因素是品牌支持的增加,這是一項我們非常興奮的投資我們目前正在採取一系列成本節約舉措來幫助抵消這筆支出,但我不會向您指出其他任何事情。
Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD
Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD
Yes. But the total, so you're saying the total level of spending, you're happy as it is right now to support growth into 2019? Or you are still -- as you're saying, like you might have a shift probably on a quarterly basis into the fourth quarter. Is that what we should conclude?
是的。但總體來說,你是說支出的總水平,你對目前支持 2019 年增長的情況感到滿意嗎?或者你仍然 - 正如你所說,你可能會按季度轉移到第四季度。這是我們應該得出的結論嗎?
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Well, as it pertains to 2018, as you'll note, as was the case in any year in our business, just given the seasonality, we typically do have higher levels of dollars spend in the fourth quarter than we do in other quarters throughout the year. So I won't provide more specifics in that other than what's implied by our guidance that we just provided today, other than that's been pretty typical for the business. Going forward, again, I think I would just point to investment areas being brand support, which we're enthusiastic about, and then cost savings to help offset that spend.
好吧,正如您會注意到的那樣,與2018 年有關,就像我們業務中任何一年的情況一樣,僅考慮到季節性,我們第四季度的美元支出通常確實高於整個其他季度的美元支出水平那一年。因此,除了我們今天剛剛提供的指導所暗示的內容之外,我不會提供更多細節,除非這對於企業來說是非常典型的。展望未來,我想我只想指出投資領域是品牌支持,這是我們熱衷的,然後是節省成本以幫助抵消支出。
Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD
Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD
Right. And then on tariffs, if everything you've seen from concessions, FX changes and the pricing discussed with the vendors, will it be enough to offset the 25% tariff increase?
正確的。然後在關稅方面,如果您從優惠、匯率變化以及與供應商討論的定價中看到的一切,是否足以抵消 25% 的關稅上漲?
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
We'll be in a position to provide finer points on that, but currently our belief is we will be able to offset that impact. That's correct.
我們將能夠對此提供更詳細的觀點,但目前我們相信我們將能夠抵消這種影響。這是正確的。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Linda Bolton-Weiser from D. A. Davidson.
我們的下一個問題來自 D. A. Davidson 的 Linda Bolton-Weiser。
Linda Ann Bolton-Weiser - Senior Research Analyst
Linda Ann Bolton-Weiser - Senior Research Analyst
So in terms of the fourth quarter, the growth that we're seeing there, the expected growth is predominantly the Rite Aid channel fill sales. Is that expected to be completely done in fourth quarter? Or will some of that go over into the first quarter of 2019?
因此,就第四季度而言,我們看到的增長,預期增長主要是 Rite Aid 渠道的填充銷售。預計第四季度能完全完成嗎?或者其中一些會持續到 2019 年第一季度嗎?
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Hey, Linda, it's John. So for the fourth quarter, I think the 2 things that I would point to as kind of major growth movers would be growth in our specialty business, including Ulta, as well as pipeline for the expansion into Rite Aid. To your core question, that will -- the pipeline will go out in the fourth quarter, so no spillover from a pipeline perspective in Q1 of '19, though certainly we'll have the replenishment business.
嘿,琳達,我是約翰。因此,對於第四季度,我認為我認為主要增長動力的兩件事是我們的專業業務(包括 Ulta)的增長,以及擴展到 Rite Aid 的管道。對於你的核心問題,管道將在第四季度耗盡,因此從管道的角度來看,19 年第一季度不會產生溢出效應,儘管我們肯定會有補貨業務。
Linda Ann Bolton-Weiser - Senior Research Analyst
Linda Ann Bolton-Weiser - Senior Research Analyst
And then when you talked about the gross margin performance, I believe you said that customer mix was a positive factor in the quarter. Can you just elaborate a little bit more? Like what is the rank order of customer mix? I mean, I assume you're talking drug versus specialty versus mass versus international. But how should we -- can you just give us a little more understanding of what positive mix represents for you?
然後,當您談到毛利率表現時,我相信您說過客戶組合是本季度的積極因素。您能再詳細說明一下嗎?比如客戶組合的排序是怎樣的?我的意思是,我假設您正在談論毒品與專業、大眾與國際。但是我們應該如何——您能讓我們更多地了解積極的組合對您來說意味著什麼嗎?
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Yes, I sure can, yes. And to put a finer point on it, I'd say, in this particular quarter, the biggest one to note would have been the comparable sales to discounters relative to last year. As you recall, from the Q3 '17 remarks, we did have significant sales to discount customers, which we do have in each and every year of our business. They just so happen to be highly concentrated in the third quarter. This year, in Q3, our sales through those players were very small on a relative basis. And so far and away, that was probably the biggest mix item that I would point to, though certainly we also have some benefits from Sweeten the Mix that were in there as well.
是的,我當然可以,是的。更具體地說,我想說,在這個特定的季度,最值得注意的是折扣店與去年相比的可比銷售額。正如您所記得的,從 17 年第三季度的評論來看,我們確實對折扣客戶進行了大量銷售,我們每年的業務中都確實有這樣的銷售。他們恰好高度集中在第三季度。今年第三季度,我們通過這些參與者的銷售額相對而言非常小。到目前為止,這可能是我要指出的最大的混合項目,儘管我們當然也從其中的“甜蜜混合”中得到了一些好處。
Linda Ann Bolton-Weiser - Senior Research Analyst
Linda Ann Bolton-Weiser - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. And then finally, I think that you had originally said you were baking in kind of Nielsen POS being down about 10% or so, if I'm remembering, in the second half. How are things actually tracking versus what you've figured into the plan, better or worse, about the same?
好的。最後,我想您最初曾說過,如果我沒記錯的話,下半年 Nielsen POS 會下降約 10% 左右。實際跟踪的情況與您在計劃中計算的情況相比,是好是壞,是否大致相同?
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
John P. Bailey - President & CFO
Yes. So on the last call, we actually assumed that Nielsen would be down 10% on an average basis throughout the back half of 2018. Obviously, in the last quarter, you've seen prints that are a little bit better than that. The only sort of assumption that we're pointing to, implicit in the guidance, is that Nielsen continues to be negative throughout the balance of the year. In fact, you may see it get a little bit worse just due to the timing of some merchandising programs, but that has been incorporated in the guidance we just reaffirmed today.
是的。因此,在上次電話會議中,我們實際上假設尼爾森在 2018 年下半年的平均股價將下跌 10%。顯然,在上個季度,您已經看到了比這更好一點的印刷品。我們在指導中隱含的唯一假設是尼爾森在今年餘下的時間裡繼續保持負值。事實上,您可能會發現,由於某些推銷計劃的時間安排,情況會變得更糟,但這已納入我們今天剛剛重申的指導中。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Mark Astrachan from Stifel.
(操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。
Claire Elicia Chamberlin - Associate
Claire Elicia Chamberlin - Associate
This is actually Claire Chamberlin on for Mark. Question is on skincare. Just you reiterated your excitement about skincare, which we definitely think makes sense, given the overall strengthening of the skincare market. But why have we seen some deceleration and track channel data? And are there any offsets in other channels like the testing also that you mentioned last call? And if so, what contributes to more success there versus track channel?
這實際上是克萊爾·張伯倫為馬克做的。問題是關於護膚。剛才您重申了您對護膚品的興奮,考慮到護膚品市場的整體走強,我們認為這絕對是有道理的。但為什麼我們會看到一些減速和跟踪通道數據呢?其他渠道(例如您上次提到的測試)是否存在任何抵消?如果是這樣,與軌道渠道相比,什麼有助於取得更大的成功?
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Hi, Claire. This is Tarang. So some of the confidence comes really in 2 fronts. So on the track channel piece, I may not be fully following other than kind of as I take a look our Target data, that looks quite strong, particularly as I look through kind of Magnetic Mask. At Walmart, we've had some out-of-stock issues on the sea of our kind of permanent display pieces. So I don't know if that's clouding kind of any of the skincare numbers. We have a few -- fewer items we see on skincare than when they had in the skincare set. But I can tell you, just because we've tested on the planograms, they're quite bullish on our skincare as well. And then outside of track channels, really, Ulta Beauty revenues. We've been testing and we've been doing quite well with skincare and the subset of doors that we have tested in. And I think, a little bit later this year, they will make their decision on the skincare. So overall, from a trend standpoint, particularly as we look even within our own direct channels, we see really strong results on the skincare as we go forward. And then second, I always go back to kind of the core pipeline and the key item focus that I talked about earlier in terms of our ability to kind of drive that. Still very much -- very early days in skincare, and I would put our pipeline up against anyone else in some of the things that we see coming.
嗨,克萊爾。這是塔朗。所以一些信心實際上來自兩個方面。因此,在軌道通道部分,除了當我查看我們的目標數據時,我可能無法完全遵循其他數據,它看起來相當強大,特別是當我通過某種磁性掩模查看時。在沃爾瑪,我們的永久展示品遇到了一些缺貨問題。所以我不知道這是否會使任何護膚數據變得模糊。我們在護膚品上看到的商品比護膚品套裝中的商品要少。但我可以告訴你,僅僅因為我們已經對貨架圖進行了測試,他們也非常看好我們的護膚品。然後,在軌道渠道之外,Ulta Beauty 的收入確實如此。我們一直在進行測試,並且在護膚品和我們測試過的門的子集方面做得很好。我認為,今年晚些時候,他們將對護膚品做出決定。因此,總體而言,從趨勢的角度來看,特別是當我們在自己的直接渠道內觀察時,我們在前進的過程中看到了護膚品方面的真正強勁成果。其次,我總是回到我之前談到的核心管道和關鍵項目焦點,即我們推動其發展的能力。仍然非常--在護膚品的早期階段,我會在我們看到的一些事情上將我們的管道與其他人競爭。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I'd like to turn the call back to Tarang Amin for closing remarks.
女士們、先生們,問答環節已經結束。我想將電話轉回給塔朗·阿明,讓其致閉幕詞。
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Tarang P. Amin - Chairman & CEO
Well, thanks again for joining us. We're aggressively focused on initiatives to drive growth in the business in our comps and in our outlook for the remainder of the year. We look forward to updating you on our next call, on our initiatives to invest more in the brand, integrate efforts beyond our key items and improve our retail assortments of Project Unicorn. Thanks, and we'll see you next quarter.
好的,再次感謝您加入我們。我們積極關注推動公司業務增長的舉措以及今年剩餘時間的展望。我們期待在下次電話會議上向您通報我們的最新情況,包括我們對品牌進行更多投資、整合關鍵產品之外的努力以及改進我們的“獨角獸計劃”零售品種的舉措。謝謝,我們下季度見。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。