Elanco Animal Health Inc (ELAN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Elanco Animal Health's third quarter 2024 earnings call. I'm Katy Grissom, Head of Investor Relations and ESG. Joining us on today's call are Jeff Simmons, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Todd Young, our Chief Financial Officer; and Beth Haney, from Investor Relations.

早安.感謝您參加 Elanco Animal Health 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係和 ESG 主管 Katy Grissom。參加今天電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Jeff Simmons；我們的財務長 Todd Young；以及投資人關係部的 Beth Haney。

The slides referenced during this call are available on the Investor Relations section of elanco.com. Today's discussion will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our current assumptions and expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forecast. For more information, see the risk factors in today's earnings press release as well as our latest Form 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC.

本次電話會議中引用的幻燈片可在 elanco.com 的投資者關係部分找到。今天的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於我們目前的假設和預期，並受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異。欲了解更多信息，請參閱今天收益新聞稿中的風險因素以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 表和 10-Q 表。

We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements. The information we provide about our products and pipeline is for the benefit of the investment community. It is not intended to be promotional, and it is not sufficient for prescribing decisions.

我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任。我們提供的有關我們的產品和管道的資訊是為了投資界的利益。它並非旨在起到宣傳作用，而且不足以規定決策。

Our remarks today will focus on our non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures are included in the appendix of today's slides and in the earnings press release. After our prepared remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

我們今天的發言將集中討論我們的非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計準則指標的對帳表包含在今天的投影片附錄和收益新聞稿中。在我們發表準備好的發言後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。我現在將電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Katy. Good morning, everyone. Elanco reported a strong third quarter, delivering constant currency organic top-line growth with adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS above the midpoint of our guidance ranges. Organic constant currency revenue growth of 1% was driven by the contribution from new products, led by Experior, Adtab, Credelio Plus, and Zenrelia.

謝謝，凱蒂。大家早安。 Elanco 公佈第三季業績表現強勁，以固定匯率計算實現有機營收成長，調整後 EBITDA 和調整後 EPS 均高於我們預期範圍的中點。有機固定匯率營收成長 1%，這得益於以 Experior、Adtab、Credelio Plus 和 Zenrelia 為首的新產品的貢獻。

This marks our fifth consecutive quarter of growth in our underlying business, and we continue to expect to deliver constant currency organic revenue growth of about 3% in 2024. Our consistent strategy focused on growth, innovation and cash is paying off with innovative new products driving growth, enabling improved cash flow.

這是我們基礎業務連續第五個季度實現成長，我們預計 2024 年將實現約 3% 的固定匯率有機收入成長。我們一貫注重成長、創新和現金的策略正在取得成效，創新的新產品推動了成長，改善了現金流。

Beginning on slide 4, we achieved key milestones advancing our innovation, portfolio and productivity strategy. Third-quarter revenue growth, excluding the impact of our aqua divestiture, was led by our US farm and international pet health businesses.

從第 4 張投影片開始，我們在推動創新、產品組合和生產力策略方面取得了關鍵的里程碑。排除水產業務剝離的影響，第三季的收入成長主要得益於美國農場和國際寵物保健業務。

For Elanco, overall, we expect organic growth to accelerate sequentially in the fourth quarter and into next year. Since our last earnings call, we achieved several milestones for key potential blockbuster products as we now shift from regulatory into commercial launch mode. On the pet health side, we received US FDA approval for both Zenrelia and Credelio Quattro, positively differentiated products expected to be meaningful competitors in the two largest markets in pet health.

總體而言，對於 Elanco 而言，我們預計有機成長將在第四季和明年持續加速。自上次財報電話會議以來，我們在關鍵潛在重磅產品方面取得了多個里程碑，目前我們已從監管模式轉向商業發布模式。在寵物健康方面，我們的 Zenrelia 和 Credelio Quattro 產品都獲得了美國 FDA 批准，這些積極差異化的產品有望成為寵物健康領域兩個最大市場的有力競爭對手。

On the farm side, Bovaer saw the first on-farm feeding into dairy cows. The flywheel is beginning to move as multiple consumer packaged good companies have signed contracts to purchase inset carbon credits from Appian derived from the use of Bovaer to reduce methane emission from dairy cows.

在農場方面，Bovaer 首次實現了乳牛在農場內飼養。隨著多家消費包裝商品公司簽署合同，從 Appian 購買通過使用 Bovaer 減少奶牛甲烷排放而產生的內置碳信用額，飛輪開始轉動。

As we shared in August, we paid down $1.3 billion of debt in the third quarter, enabled by the divestiture of our aqua business. Debt paydown remains our top capital allocation priority and net leverage, down from the mid-five times at the start of the year, now expected to be in the mid-four times range at the end of this year.

正如我們八月所分享的那樣，透過剝離水產業務，我們在第三季償還了 13 億美元的債務。償還債務仍然是我們資本配置的首要任務，淨槓桿率已從年初的五倍左右下降至今年年底的四倍左右。

Finally, today, we're introducing a framework around our 2025 expectations. With continued confidence in our expected $600 million to $700 million of revenue from new products, we expect 2025 organic constant currency revenue growth to accelerate to mid-single digits in 2025. We expect the underlying business to drive mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, excluding the aqua divestiture, as we invest strategically in our new pet health launches.

最後，今天，我們將圍繞 2025 年的期望推出一個框架。憑藉對新產品預計 6 億至 7 億美元收入的信心，我們預計 2025 年有機固定匯率收入成長將加速至中等個位數。由於我們對新的寵物健康產品進行策略性投資，我們預計基礎業務將推動調整後 EBITDA 實現中等個位數成長（不包括水產業務剝離）。

Ultimately, we expect organic adjusted EBITDA to grow low single digits driven by an expected headwind from the court-supervised insolvency of one of our key CMOs located in the UK. We continue to expect year-end net leverage to be in the low 4 to high 3 times range. Todd will further address our outlook towards the end of our prepared remarks.

最終，我們預計有機調整後的 EBITDA 將實現低個位數成長，這主要受到我們位於英國的一家主要 CMO 在法院監督下破產所帶來的不利影響。我們繼續預期年底淨槓桿率將在 4 倍以下至 3 倍以下的範圍內。托德將在我們準備好的演講結束時進一步闡述我們的觀點。

Moving to slide 5. We provide third quarter year-over-year revenue growth by our four business areas. We've separated out the impact of the aqua divestiture to show the underlying organic constant currency growth of 1%.

移至投影片 5。我們按四個業務領域提供第三季年收入成長情況。我們已將水產業務剝離的影響分離出來，以顯示 1% 的潛在有機固定匯率成長率。

First, starting with the US pet health revenue, which declined 4% in the quarter, as strong retail performance was more than offset by competitive pressure and vaccine supply volatility in the vet clinic. On the retail side, the business returned to growth as the positive dispensing trends we saw starting in May continued in the third quarter. US Seresto sales grew over 20% in the third quarter, driven all by volume.

首先，從美國寵物健康收入開始，本季下降了 4%，因為強勁的零售表現被獸醫診所的競爭壓力和疫苗供應波動所抵消。在零售方面，由於我們從五月看到的積極配藥趨勢在第三季度持續，業務恢復了成長。美國 Seresto 銷量在第三季成長超過 20%，主要得益於銷量。

On the vet side, we're excited about the launch of Zenrelia late in the third quarter and the expected first quarter 2025 launch of Credelio Quattro. These products will be key contributors to the US pet business expected return to growth in the fourth quarter of this year and into 2025.

在獸醫方面，我們對第三季末推出的 Zenrelia 以及預計在 2025 年第一季推出的 Credelio Quattro 感到非常興奮。這些產品將成為美國寵物業務預計在今年第四季以及 2025 年恢復成長的主要貢獻者。

Outside the US, pet health delivered constant currency revenue growth of 2%, driven by the continued strength of Adtab, Credelio Plus, and Seresto. Adtab has exceeded our expectations each quarter this year as our source of volume analysis points to less cannibalization of our existing portfolio in both vet and retail channels. Our strategic investment in the brand is driving Adtab to lead category growth for both dogs and cats, recruiting more new users into the fast-growing oral over-the-counter market than competitors.

在美國以外，由於 Adtab、Credelio Plus 和 Seresto 的持續走強，寵物保健產品收入實現了 2% 的固定貨幣成長。Adtab 今年每個季度都超出了我們的預期，因為我們的數量分析來源表明，在獸醫和零售通路中，我們現有產品組合的蠶食減少。我們對該品牌的策略性投資正在推動 Adtab 引領狗和貓類別的成長，並比競爭對手為快速成長的口服非處方藥市場招募更多新用戶。

Across markets in Europe, we are seeing significant penetration in key channels and very high reorder rates, while positive consumer preference survey data supports continued brand-building investment. We expect Adtab to be a key growth driver in 2025 as well.

在歐洲市場，我們看到主要管道的滲透率顯著提高，並且重新訂購率非常高，而積極的消費者偏好調查數據支持持續的品牌建設投資。我們預計 Adtab 也將成為 2025 年的主要成長動力。

Now moving to farm animal, which grew revenue 3% globally. The US business grew 11%, led by cattle. Despite the decline in US cattle numbers, Elanco's cattle business remains strong, led by Experior. With continued strong performance, we now expect Experior to reach blockbuster status with sales expected to exceed $100 million globally this year. Recent combination clearance approvals for Experior are expected to allow for broader expansion into heifers, which represents nearly 40% of the US feedlot population, a key growth driver in 2025.

現在轉向農場動物，全球收入成長了 3%。美國業務成長了 11%，其中以牛業最為活躍。儘管美國的牛隻數量下降，但以 Experior 為首的 Elanco 的牛業務依然強勁。憑藉持續強勁的表現，我們預計 Experior 將達到轟動一時的地位，預計今年全球銷售額將超過 1 億美元。Experior 最近獲得的組合許可預計將允許其更廣泛地擴展到小母牛領域，這占美國飼養場總存欄的近 40%，是 2025 年的主要成長動力。

Additionally, we continue to see very strong demand for Rumensin as the strength of our integrated portfolio continues to deliver. Cattle vaccines benefited from favorable comparisons to the third quarter last year but to a lesser extent than in the prior three quarters.

此外，隨著我們綜合產品組合實力的不斷增強，我們繼續看到對如可新（Rumensin）的強勁需求。與去年第三季相比，牛疫苗的銷量有所成長，但增幅不如前三個季度。

In swine, difficult producer economics in the US are impacting the industry as producers are reducing investment in productivity and certain other products. We expect this dynamic to continue in 2025.

在養豬業方面，美國生產商經濟困難正在影響該行業，因為生產商減少了對生產力和某些其他產品的投資。我們預計這種態勢將在 2025 年持續下去。

Finally, our portfolio benefited from poultry rotations again in the third quarter. Given the variability in purchasing patterns driven by rotations in this business and our positive performance in late 2023, we expect a headwind to growth in the fourth quarter and into the first half of 2025.

最後，我們的投資組合在第三季再次受益於家禽輪換。鑑於該業務輪調導致的購買模式變化以及我們在 2023 年末的積極表現，我們預計第四季度和 2025 年上半年的成長將面臨阻力。

Finally, in international farm animal, the 3% organic constant currency revenue decline was driven by two discrete factors: the intentional Do Different commercial model changes we introduced with the initial '24 guidance as well as the impact from the Kexxtone product recall. Overall, we're encouraged by the performance of the business, with growth led by price and the new products, along with a stabilizing base, allowing us to report our fifth consecutive quarter of underlying revenue growth.

最後，在國際農場動物方面，3%的有機恆定貨幣收入下降是由兩個獨立因素造成的：我們在最初的'24指導中引入的有意「做不同的」商業模式變化，以及Kexxtone產品召回的影響。總體而言，我們對業務表現感到鼓舞，在價格和新產品的推動下，加上穩定的基礎，我們能夠連續第五個季度實現基礎收入成長。

Moving to slide 6. We continue to advance our innovation, portfolio and productivity strategy. To hit the highlights, our net leverage ratio was 4.3 times at the end of the third quarter, and price growth is 3% on a year-to-date basis.

移至幻燈片 6。我們繼續推進我們的創新、產品組合和生產力策略。重點指出的是，截至第三季末，我們的淨槓桿率為 4.3 倍，年初至今的價格成長率為 3%。

Now on to innovation, which delivered $112 million of sales in the third quarter and $321 million on a year-to-date basis, as shown on slide 7. Today, we are tightening our expectations for 2024 innovation sales, bringing up the bottom end of the range by $20 million with $420 million to $450 million now expected for the full year of 2024 and $600 million to $700 million next year. Third-quarter growth was driven by continued momentum from Experior, Adtab and Credelio Plus as well as the US and Brazil launch of Zenrelia late in September.

現在談談創新，如幻燈片 7 所示，第三季的銷售額為 1.12 億美元，年初至今的銷售額為 3.21 億美元。今天，我們收緊了對 2024 年創新銷售額的預期，將預期範圍的底端上調了 2000 萬美元，目前預計 2024 年全年銷售額將達到 4.2 億至 4.5 億美元，明年將達到 6 億至 7 億美元。第三季的成長得益於 Experior、Adtab 和 Credelio Plus 的持續成長以及 9 月下旬在美國和巴西推出的 Zenrelia。

Now let's talk about our three key innovation products in more detail on slide 8. We are thrilled to be the second animal health company to enter the $1.7 billion global dermatology market. Since our US approval in late September, the launch is progressing very well. We are pleased to be hitting all our key internal metrics as we've now been executing the strategy we laid out in our conference call on September 20.

現在，讓我們在第 8 張投影片上更詳細地討論我們的三款關鍵創新產品。我們很高興成為第二家進入價值 17 億美元的全球皮膚病學市場的動物保健公司。自九月下旬獲得美國批准以來，發布工作進展非常順利。我們很高興達到了所有關鍵的內部指標，因為我們現在正在執行我們在 9 月 20 日電話會議上製定的策略。

Focusing first on vet education, driving positive experience and accelerating the incentive to buy. Our vet education strategy starts with our field sales team, who bring the product benefits and considerations to life in the clinic, utilizing the US product label and the head-to-head study data results.

首先關注獸醫教育，推動正面的體驗並加速購買動機。我們的獸醫教育策略始於我們的現場銷售團隊，他們利用美國產品標籤和頭對頭研究數據結果，在臨床中將產品優勢和注意事項付諸實踐。

Additionally, over the past several weeks, we have hosted numerous medical education meetings, advisory boards, weekly webinars and regional dinner meetings, where Board-certified dermatologists and well-respected veterinary thought leaders have shared their positive experiences. These discussions include clinical data outcomes and successful case studies from trial participants.

此外，在過去幾周里，我們舉辦了多場醫學教育會議、諮詢委員會、每週網路研討會和區域晚宴會議，委員會認證的皮膚科醫生和備受尊敬的獸醫思想領袖在會上分享了他們的積極經驗。這些討論包括臨床數據結果和試驗參與者的成功案例研究。

Our survey data shows the intent to buy increases significantly after these educational touch points with KOLs and veterinarian peers. Additionally, in mid-October, a Zenrelia vaccine booster study was presented at the ISCAID symposium. The promising results concluded that when dogs were administered ilunocitinib for 56 days at one time or three times the labeled dose, the number of dogs with protective titers on days 43 and 56 following administration of canine core booster vaccinations including rabies were similar among all treated and control groups. No serious adverse events were observed. The data is accessible to interested veterinarians, and our Elanco regional consulting veterinarians continue to provide support on questions and individual treatment decisions.

我們的調查數據顯示，在與 KOL 和獸醫同行進行這些教育接觸之後，購買意願顯著增加。此外，10 月中旬，Zenrelia 疫苗加強劑研究在 ISCAID 研討會上進行了展示。這一令人鼓舞的結果得出結論：當給狗施用一次或三倍於標示劑量的伊諾替尼 56 天時，在施用包括狂犬病在內的犬核心加強疫苗後的第 43 天和第 56 天，所有治療組和對照組中具有保護性滴度的狗的數量相似。未觀察到嚴重不良事件。有興趣的獸醫可以存取這些數據，並且我們的 Elanco 地區諮詢獸醫會繼續為問題和個別治療決策提供支援。

The second pillar of our strategy is driving a positive experience. We continue to execute a targeted sample strategy. We had a number of early adopters enrolled in our early experience program, allowing us to gain valuable success data around real-world outcomes of Zenrelia in a variety of different case types.

我們的策略的第二個支柱是推動正面的體驗。我們繼續執行有針對性的樣本策略。我們的早期體驗計劃已招募了許多早期採用者，這使我們能夠獲得有關 Zenrelia 在各種不同案例類型的實際結果的寶貴成功數據。

We see a clear opportunity for Zenrelia to be used in all types of allergic itch cases and believe it has the profile to be a first-line treatment. It is very clear Zenrelia works, and it works really well. Both veterinarians and pet owners that have experienced the product have been very pleased with the speed and the level of improvements of their dogs.

我們看到 Zenrelia 在治療各類過敏性搔癢病例方面有著明顯的機會，並相信它有成​​為第一線治療藥物的潛力。很明顯，Zenrelia 是有效的，而且效果非常好。體驗過該產品的獸醫和寵物主人都對他們的狗的改善速度和水平感到非常滿意。

With only a few weeks passed since the booster vaccine data was presented, key launch metrics, including clinic penetration, reorder rates and average order size are all progressing in line with our expectations. We are tracking reorder rates for many clinics, demonstrating the product is being used and replenished.

自加強疫苗數據公佈以來僅過去了幾週，關鍵的發布指標，包括診所滲透率、重新訂購率和平均訂單量均按照我們的預期進展。我們正在追蹤許多診所的重新訂購率，表明該產品正在使用和補充。

The key leading indicator we are tracking is clinic penetration. We are seeing the product placed in hundreds of new clinics each week. We plan to update the market quarterly on this metric beginning early next year. Our global launch is in full motion, and we continue to invest in and execute a no-regrets approach.

我們正在追蹤的關鍵領先指標是診所滲透率。每週我們都能看到該產品出現在數百家新診所。我們計劃從明年初開始每季根據此指標更新市場。我們的全球發布正在全面推進，我們將繼續投資並執行不後悔的做法。

Overall, we are pleased with the launch of Zenrelia and encouraged by the adoption we are seeing in both the US and Brazil. We look forward to the fastest ever globalization of a launch for Elanco with Canada and Japan now approved, both with less restrictive labels than the US and launching over the coming months. We are thrilled to be just the second company to offer an innovative, new treatment in canine dermatology space and strongly believe in the efficacy benefits Zenrelia has to offer.

總體而言，我們對 Zenrelia 的推出感到高興，並且對其在美國和巴西的採用感到鼓舞。我們期待 Elanco 能夠以有史以來最快的速度實現全球化上市，目前加拿大和日本都已獲得批准，這兩個國家的限制性都比美國少，並將在未來幾個月內上市。我們很高興成為第二家在犬皮膚病學領域提供創新新療法的公司，並堅信 Zenrelia 的療效。

We see relevance for all cases of atopic dermatitis for this product and believe Zenrelia has the potential to grow the market while unleashing a significant growth lever for Elanco. We are focused on building a sustainable leadership position in dermatology and Zenrelia is just the beginning.

我們認為該產品與所有異位性皮膚炎病例都有相關性，並相信 Zenrelia 有潛力擴大市場，同時為 Elanco 釋放出重要的成長槓桿。我們致力於在皮膚科領域打造永續的領導地位，而 Zenrelia 只是個開始。

Additionally, as expected, less than a month after the approval of Zenrelia, we received US FDA approval for Credelio Quattro, the newest addition to the Credelio franchise, which includes Credelio Dog, Credelio Cat, and Credelio Plus.

此外，正如預期的那樣，在 Zenrelia 獲得批准後不到一個月，我們就獲得了美國 FDA 對 Credelio Quattro 的批准，這是 Credelio 系列的最新成員，該系列包括 Credelio Dog、Credelio Cat 和 Credelio Plus。

Credelio Quattro is the first and only canine oral parasiticide to protect against fleas, ticks, heartworms, roundworms, hookworms and three different species of tapeworm in a single monthly dose. We are thrilled to bring this differentiated product to the US market. Endecticides or flea, tick and intestinal parasite combination products are the fastest-growing category in the $3.8 billion US parasiticides market with these broad-spectrum products now making up nearly 25% of the market.

Credelio Quattro 是第一個也是唯一一個犬類口服殺蟲劑，只需每月服用一次即可預防跳蚤、蜱蟲、心絲蟲、蛔蟲、鉤蟲和三種不同種類的絛蟲。我們很高興將這種差異化的產品帶入美國市場。體內殺蟲劑或跳蚤、蜱和腸道寄生蟲組合產品是價值 38 億美元的美國殺蟲劑市場中成長最快的類別，這些廣譜產品目前佔了近 25% 的市場份額。

And Quattro is positioned also to strengthen Elanco's value proposition in the prescription parasiticide market. We are progressing nicely through the final stages of manufacturing scale-up to optimize the launch, which remains on track for the first quarter of 2025, prior to the major parasiticide season. We expect Credelio Quattro to be a major consumer-focused launch, contributing to the growth of the overall parasiticide market driving share growth for Elanco.

Quattro 也將加強 Elanco 在處方殺蟲劑市場的價值主張。為了優化產品上市，我們在生產規模擴大的最後階段進展順利，產品將於 2025 年第一季度，即主要殺蟲劑季節之前上市。我們預計 Credelio Quattro 將是一款以消費者為中心的重大產品，有助於整個殺蟲劑市場的成長，從而推動 Elanco 的份額成長。

Shifting to farm animal innovation, we are encouraged by the progress of Bovaer. In the third quarter, we achieved several key milestones. Notably, permission was granted for the sale and use of Bovaer in California, a key dairy production state, and the first cows were also fed Bovaer. We continue to expand the reach of our UpLook database with approximately 800,000 dairy cows enrolled and activated expected to trend towards one million cows by the end of the year. Overall farmer demand is very robust. And finally, multiple large CPG companies have signed contracts with Appian to purchase inset carbon credits.

轉向農場動物創新，Bovaer 的進步令我們感到鼓舞。第三季度，我們實現了幾個關鍵的里程碑。值得注意的是，加州這個主要的乳製品生產州已獲得銷售和使用 Bovaer 起司的許可，第一批乳牛也飼餵了 Bovaer 起司。我們繼續擴大 UpLook 資料庫的覆蓋範圍，目前已登記並啟動了約 80 萬頭乳牛，預計到今年年底將達到 100 萬頭。整體來說，農民需求非常強勁。最後，多家大型 CPG 公司已與 Appian 簽訂合同，購買嵌入式碳信用。

We've updated our pipeline chart on slide 9. And as you can see, we are now in or entering the commercial execution phase for the majority of these products. We are excited to share more information on the progress of these launches in the coming quarters, but early indicators are positive. We are focused on investing appropriately to ramp adoption, take share, expand markets, and build strong brands.

我們已更新第 9 頁的管道圖表。正如您所看到的，我們目前正處於或即將進入大多數產品的商業化執行階段。我們很高興能在未來幾個季度分享更多有關這些發布進展的信息，但早期指標是積極的。我們專注於適當投資，以提高採用率、佔領份額、擴大市場和打造強大的品牌。

With that, I'll hand it over to Todd to discuss our third-quarter results and outlook in more detail.

接下來，我將把時間交給托德來更詳細地討論我們的第三季業績和前景。

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll focus my comments on our third-quarter adjusted measures, so please refer to today's earnings press release for a detailed description of the year-over-year changes in our reported results.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早安。今天，我將重點談論我們第三季的調整後指標，因此請參閱今天的收益新聞稿，以了解我們報告的結果同比變化的詳細說明。

Starting on slide 11, we delivered $1.03 billion in revenue, representing a 4% reported decline. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange rates and the divestiture of our aqua business, organic constant currency growth was 1%. Price contributed 2%, while volume declined 1% when excluding the aqua divestiture impact.

從第 11 張投影片開始，我們的收入為 10.3 億美元，報告下降了 4%。排除外匯匯率和水產業務剝離的影響，有機固定匯率成長率為 1%。若排除水產資產剝離的影響，價格貢獻了 2%，而銷售量則下降了 1%。

Slide 12 provides revenue by the four quadrants of our business in the quarter. Total pet health revenue declined 2% in the third quarter with price growth of 2%. Our US business declined 4% with supply volatility for vaccines and competitive pressure in the veterinarian clinic contributing an estimated 12 percentage points of decline in the quarter. We are pleased by the volume growth from our OTC retail parasiticide business, which saw the normalization of retailer purchasing patterns more in line with demand in the third quarter and by the contribution of increased sales of new products, which together contributed 8 percentage points of growth.

幻燈片 12 提供了本季我們業務四個像限的收入。第三季寵物保健總收入下降 2%，價格上漲 2%。我們的美國業務下降了 4%，其中疫苗供應的波動和獸醫診所的競爭壓力導致本季業務下降約 12 個百分點。我們很高興看到非處方零售殺蟲劑業務的銷售成長，其中，第三季零售商的採購模式趨於正常化，更加符合需求，新產品的銷售量也有所增加，這兩項合計貢獻了8個百分點的成長。

Importantly, next year, as supply headwinds are expected to subside and innovation contribution continues to ramp, we expect a return to growth in US pet health. Outside the US, constant currency pet health revenue growth of 2% was driven by Europe, led by Adtab and Seresto, as our retail investment strategy and execution continues to drive demand growth throughout the region. This was partially offset by competitive pressure in Australia.

重要的是，明年，隨著供應阻力預計消退以及創新貢獻繼續增加，我們預計美國寵物健康市場將恢復成長。在美國以外，以恆定匯率計算的寵物健康收入成長了 2%，這主要得益於歐洲，其中以 Adtab 和 Seresto 為首，因為我們的零售投資策略和執行繼續推動整個地區的需求成長。這在一定程度上被澳洲的競爭壓力所抵消。

Moving to farm animal, globally, third quarter revenue growth was 3%, excluding the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange rates and the impact of the aqua divestiture. In the US, revenue growth was 11%, primarily driven by strength in cattle across both new and legacy products. Experior and Rumensin continued to be key contributors to growth along with poultry in the third quarter, partially offset by the profitability challenges for swine customers.

轉向農場動物，全球第三季收入成長了 3%，不包括外匯匯率的不利影響和水產資產剝離的影響。在美國，營收成長了 11%，主要得益於新產品和傳統產品的牛隻價格強勁成長。第三季度，Experior、Rumensin 和家禽業務繼續成為成長的主要貢獻者，但被豬客戶獲利能力挑戰部分抵消。

We are very pleased with the 18% growth in US farm animal over the trailing 12 months as our innovation has driven greater benefit across the portfolio. In 2025, we expect growth will decelerate from this elevated level but remain above average industry growth rates, driven by Experior and Bovaer.

我們對過去 12 個月美國農場動物 18% 的成長率感到非常高興，因為我們的創新為整個投資組合帶來了更大的收益。到 2025 年，我們預計成長將從這一高位放緩，但在 Experior 和 Bovaer 的推動下，仍將高於行業平均成長率。

Outside the US, farm animal revenue declined 3%, excluding the impact of the aqua divestiture and the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange rates. Aligned with our expectations, the decline was driven by our strategic decision to change our go-to-market model in certain geographies, including Argentina, and exit low-margin distribution agreements.

在美國以外，除去水產業務剝離和外匯匯率的不利影響，農場動物收入下降了 3%。與我們的預期一致，銷售額下降是由於我們做出了戰略決策，改變了包括阿根廷在內的某些地區的市場進入模式，並退出了低利潤的分銷協議。

We estimate this Do Different approach and the Kexxtone recall in Europe drove 3 percentage points of decline year over year. Excluding these discrete impacts, increased demand for our poultry products in Europe was offset by declines in Australia, driven by drier weather and generic pressure.

我們估計，「Do Different」方法和歐洲的 Kexxtone 召回事件導致銷售額比去年同期下降了 3 個百分點。除這些單獨影響外，歐洲對我們家禽產品的需求成長被澳洲因天氣乾燥和普遍壓力而導致的需求下降所抵消。

Continuing down the income statement on slide 13, gross margin declined 230 basis points to 52.2% of revenue. The decline was driven by the impact of the aqua divestiture on product mix, inflation, and unfavorable manufacturing performance. The impact from slowing down the plants over the last four quarters was largely neutral in the quarter.

繼續看第 13 頁的損益表，毛利率下降 230 個基點，至收入的 52.2％。下滑的原因在於水產業務剝離對產品結構、通貨膨脹以及製造業表現不佳所造成的影響。過去四個季度工廠生產放緩帶來的影響在本季基本保持中性。

Operating expense increased by 3% in the third quarter, driven by higher employee-related expenses and increased expenses supporting the US pet health business, partially offset by savings related to our first quarter restructuring announcement. Strategic investment in the key launches is critical to the long-term success and profitability of the brands, despite being a temporary near-term EBITDA headwind.

第三季營業費用增加了 3%，主要是由於員工相關費用增加和支持美國寵物保健業務的費用增加，但部分被第一季重組公告相關的節省所抵消。儘管短期內 EBITDA 會面臨暫時的阻力，但對重點產品發布的策略投資對於品牌的長期成功和獲利能力至關重要。

Interest expense was $46 million, a decrease of $26 million year over year as the proceeds from the aqua divestiture enabled significant debt paydown at the beginning of the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $163 million in the quarter, a decrease of $51 million on a reported basis or $27 million, excluding the impact of the aqua divestiture. Adjusted EPS was $0.13, a decrease of $0.05 in the quarter.

利息支出為 4,600 萬美元，較上年同期減少 2,600 萬美元，原因是水產資產剝離所得使公司在第三季初償還了大量債務。本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.63 億美元，以報告基礎計算減少 5,100 萬美元，若不計水產業務剝離的影響，則減少 2,700 萬美元。調整後每股收益為 0.13 美元，本季減少 0.05 美元。

On slide 14, we include a bridge for the third-quarter results compared to the prior year. Additionally, in the quarter, we recorded a gain on the sale of our aqua business, which impacted reported EPS by $0.94.

在投影片 14 中，我們列出了與去年同期相比的第三季業績。此外，本季我們記錄了水產業務出售收益，這對報告的每股收益產生了 0.94 美元的影響。

Now let me offer a few words on our cash, working capital, and debt on slide 15. Cash provided by operations was $162 million in the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, operating cash improved by $250 million, driven by improved inventory performance, strong collections, and lower project expenses.

現在，讓我在第 15 張投影片上談談我們的現金、營運資金和債務。本季經營活動提供的現金為 1.62 億美元。從年初至今，由於庫存績效改善、收款強勁以及專案費用降低，營運現金增加了 2.5 億美元。

We ended the quarter with net debt of $3.897 billion, inclusive of the $1.3 billion of debt paydown from the proceeds of our aqua sale. The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 4.3 times at the end of the quarter, down from 5.7 times at the end of the third quarter in 2023. We remain confident in our year-end net leverage in the mid-4 times range.

截至本季末，我們的淨債務為 38.97 億美元，其中包括用水產銷售收益償還的 13 億美元債務。本季末的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 4.3 倍，低於 2023 年第三季末的 5.7 倍。我們對於年底淨槓桿率在 4 倍左右範圍內仍有信心。

We've updated slides 25 and 26 in the appendix to reflect updates to our key debt information. Based on our third quarter debt paydown, we now expect to have income statement interest expense of approximately $225 million and cash interest of approximately $295 million in 2024. We expect 2025 income statement interest expense to improve by $5 million to $15 million and cash interest to be lowered by $20 million to $30 million. Additionally, we expect an incremental $150 million of cash taxes next year for deferred tax payments related to the aqua transaction.

我們更新了附錄中的第 25 和 26 張投影片，以反映我們關鍵債務資訊的更新。根據我們第三季的債務償還情況，我們現在預計 2024 年的損益表利息支出約為 2.25 億美元，現金利息約為 2.95 億美元。我們預計 2025 年損益表利息支出將改善 500 萬美元至 1,500 萬美元，現金利息將降低 2,000 萬美元至 3,000 萬美元。此外，我們預計明年與水產品交易相關的遞延稅款現金稅將增加1.5億美元。

Next, I'll provide an update to the September 13 press release regarding the UK contract manufacturing organization that entered court-supervised insolvency in September. This CMO is a critical supplier for Elanco, representing approximately $160 million to $180 million in annual farm animal revenue across species and countries. The entity remains in court-supervised insolvency, and we are working closely with the parties involved to maintain continued product supply.

接下來，我將提供 9 月 13 日新聞稿的最新消息，該新聞稿涉及 9 月進入法院監督破產程序的英國合約製造組織。該 CMO 是 Elanco 的重要供應商，每年為各國和物種提供約 1.6 億至 1.8 億美元的農場動物收入。該實體仍處於法院監督的破產狀態，我們正在與相關方密切合作，以維持持續的產品供應。

For 2024, we continue to expect an adjusted EBITDA headwind of approximately $5 million to $10 million, primarily in the fourth quarter. For 2025, we believe there are a variety of scenarios all with an expected year-over-year adjusted EBITDA headwind between $25 million and $35 million, primarily on gross profit. We expect to reach a resolution in the coming weeks, but have reflected this expected outcome in our 2025 growth outlook.

對於 2024 年，我們繼續預計調整後的 EBITDA 逆風約為 500 萬至 1000 萬美元，主要集中在第四季度。對於 2025 年，我們認為存在多種情況，預計調整後 EBITDA 同比阻力將在 2500 萬美元至 3500 萬美元之間，主要影響到毛利。我們預計將在未來幾週內達成解決方案，但已在 2025 年成長展望中反映了這一預期結果。

Finally, let's move to guidance on slide 17. For the full year, the outlook for our underlying business remains positive. We are narrowing the range for revenue to be between $4.42 billion and $4.45 billion, representing 3% growth when excluding headwinds from foreign exchange rates and the impact of the aqua divestiture. There is no change to the midpoint of the sales guidance range as increased expectation for innovation sales is offset by lower expectations for US pet health parasiticide revenue.

最後，讓我們轉到第 17 張投影片上的指示。就全年而言，我們基礎業務的前景依然樂觀。我們將收入範圍縮小到 44.2 億美元至 44.5 億美元之間，如果排除外匯匯率不利因素和水產資產剝離的影響，則成長率為 3%。銷售指導範圍的中點沒有變化，因為對創新銷售的預期增加被對美國寵物健康殺蟲劑收入的預期降低所抵消。

We expect adjusted EBITDA of $900 million to $930 million, reflecting expected gross margin headwinds from product mix and manufacturing performance. And finally, adjusted EPS is expected to be between $0.89 and $0.95, with improved expectations for interest expense and tax offsetting the items impacting adjusted EBITDA to result in no change to the midpoint compared to August.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 9 億至 9.3 億美元，反映了產品組合和製造業績預計帶來的毛利率阻力。最後，調整後的每股盈餘預計在 0.89 美元至 0.95 美元之間，利息支出和稅收抵銷影響調整後 EBITDA 的項目的預期改善導致中點與 8 月相比沒有變化。

Our fourth-quarter guidance is detailed on slide 18, with organic constant currency revenue growth expected to be between 1% and 4%. Despite the headwind from aqua, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS are expected to grow primarily based on the comparison to the fourth quarter of 2023, which included meaningful headwinds related to Argentina as detailed on slide 19.

我們的第四季指引詳見第 18 頁，預計有機固定匯率營收成長率將介於 1% 至 4% 之間。儘管面臨來自水產的阻力，但與 2023 年第四季相比，調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的 EPS 預計將成長，其中包括與阿根廷相關的重大阻力，如幻燈片 19 所示。

Finally, we wanted to provide some additional context on our expectations for 2025 on slide 20. On the top line, we remain confident in our trajectory towards innovation sales of $600 million to $700 million, with expected organic revenue growth to accelerate to mid-single digits compared to our expected 3% growth in 2024, with growth expected in both pet health and farm animal.

最後，我們想在第 20 張投影片上提供一些有關我們對 2025 年的期望的額外背景資訊。就營收而言，我們對於實現 6 億至 7 億美元的創新銷售額的軌跡充滿信心，預計有機收入增長將加速至中等個位數，而我們預計 2024 年的增長率為 3%，預計寵物健康和農場動物業務都將實現增長。

In pet health, growth is expected to be enabled by increased contributions from new products and strength in our pet health OTC business. We expect continued headwinds on our legacy US pet health and vet clinic business, although lessening as Credelio Quattro and Zenrelia are expected to contribute to returning this business area to growth. On the farm animal side, we continue to expect above-market average growth led by new products in cattle, but anticipate headwinds resulting from poor swine producer economics, generics, and unfavorable comparisons related to strong poultry rotations in 2024.

在寵物健康領域，預計成長將得益於新產品的貢獻增加以及寵物健康非處方藥業務的實力。我們預計，我們傳統的美國寵物健康和獸醫診所業務將繼續面臨阻力，但由於 Credelio Quattro 和 Zenrelia 預計將有助於恢復該業務領域的成長，阻力將會減弱。在農場動物方面，我們繼續預計在牛肉新產品的帶動下，其增長將高於市場平均水平，但預計 2024 年養豬生產者經濟狀況不佳、仿製藥以及與強勁家禽輪換相關的不利對比將帶來阻力。

Based on our updated guidance for 2024, the jump-off point, excluding the estimated aqua contribution for the full year, should be approximately $875 million of adjusted EBITDA. This reflects our 2024 guidance midpoint of $915 million, less approximately $40 million of estimated aqua EBITDA contribution in the first half of 2024.

根據我們對 2024 年的最新指引，起點（不包括預期的全年水產貢獻）應為調整後的 EBITDA 約 8.75 億美元。這反映了我們 2024 年指引中點 9.15 億美元，減去 2024 年上半年預計水產 EBITDA 貢獻約 4,000 萬美元。

Looking forward to next year, we expect the underlying business to drive mid-single-digit organic adjusted EBITDA growth, inclusive of meaningful strategic investments in our key blockbuster potential launches. As I shared earlier, the anticipated $25 million to $35 million headwind from the UK CMO situation ultimately puts our organic adjusted EBITDA growth expectations in the low single digits range.

展望明年，我們預計基礎業務將推動中等個位數的有機調整後 EBITDA 成長，其中包括對我們主要重磅產品潛在發布的有意義的策略投資。正如我之前所分享的，英國 CMO 情況預計將帶來 2500 萬至 3500 萬美元的逆風，最終將使我們的有機調整後 EBITDA 增長預期處於個位數的低位。

From a cash perspective, we expect a few headwinds to our cash available for debt paydown, including deferred tax payments from the 2024 aqua proceeds and increased capital expenditures to support capacity expansion at our monoclonal manufacturing facility.

從現金角度來看，我們預計用於償還債務的現金將面臨一些阻力，包括 2024 年水產品收益的遞延稅款以及為支持單克隆生產工廠產能擴張而增加的資本支出。

With all this in consideration, we continue to expect net leverage to be in the high 3s to low 4s range continuing us on our deleveraging path. We will continue to keep our eyes on the foreign exchange markets over the coming months and look forward to providing our detailed 2025 guidance next February.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們繼續預期淨槓桿率將處於 3% 高點至 4% 低位範圍內，繼續走向槓桿的道路。我們將在未來幾個月繼續關注外匯市場，並期待明年 2 月提供詳細的 2025 年指引。

Now I'll hand it back to Jeff for closing comments.

現在我將會議交還給傑夫，請他作最後評論。

Thanks, Todd. Elanco is delivering on our expectation of an improved portfolio with our fifth consecutive quarter of underlying top-line growth in the third quarter and sixth projected in our fourth-quarter guidance this year. We expect full year organic constant currency revenue growth of 3%, an acceleration from 1% growth in 2023. We are continuing to outperform where we have leadership like pet retail and farm animal and are launching into big market spaces where we've had previously portfolio gaps and competitive pressure. Gaining regulatory approval for two differentiated blockbuster products in the two largest spaces in pet health within a month is unprecedented.

謝謝，托德。Elanco 正在履行我們對投資組合改善的預期，今年第三季我們連續第五個季度實現基本營收成長，第四季預計將實現第六個季度成長。我們預計全年有機固定匯率營收成長率為 3%，高於 2023 年 1% 的成長率。我們在寵物零售和農場動物等領先領域繼續表現出色，並正在進入我們以前存在投資組合差距和競爭壓力的大型市場領域。一個月內獲得寵物健康領域兩個最大領域的兩種差異化重磅產品監管批准是前所未有的。

The determination, resolve and unwavering commitment of the One Elanco team was on full display not just recently but over many years leading up to this point of delivery. We have officially moved from R&D and regulatory to commercial launch mode for all three big products, Bovaer, Zenrelia and Credelio Quattro, with growing tailwinds from Experior, Adtab and Credelio Plus.

One Elanco 團隊的決心、毅力和堅定不移的承諾不僅在最近得到了充分展示，而且在實現這一目標的許多年裡也得到了充分展示。我們已正式從研發和監管轉向三大產品（Bovaer、Zenrelia 和 Credelio Quattro）的商業發布模式，並得到了 Experior、Adtab 和 Credelio Plus 的助力。

2025 presents an invigorating opportunity to strengthen our position in pet health globally and see the market come to life for livestock sustainability. Building on our momentum this year, we expect revenue growth to accelerate next year to mid-single digits. We expect to grow adjusted EBITDA low single digits in 2025, excluding aqua, as we make intentional investments with expected multiyear benefits aimed at building our brands and maximizing the returns on our innovation investments.

2025 年為我們提供了一個令人振奮的機會，可以加強我們在全球寵物健康領域的地位，並看到畜牧業可持續發展的市場蓬勃發展。基於今年的發展勢頭，我們預計明年的營收成長將加速至中等個位數。我們預計，到 2025 年，調整後的 EBITDA（不包括水產品）將成長低個位數，因為我們有意進行投資，預期多年收益，旨在打造我們的品牌並最大化我們的創新投資回報。

This sets us up for continued top-line momentum, coupled with anticipated margin expansion in 2026 and beyond, shifting our focus towards the bottom line growing faster than the top line. We think this creates an exciting value proposition and look forward to updating you more formally on our 2025 guidance in February next year.

這將為我們持續維持營收成長動能奠定基礎，再加上預計 2026 年及以後的利潤率將擴大，我們將重點轉向獲利成長速度快於營收成長的模式。我們認為這創造了一個令人興奮的價值主張，並期待明年 2 月向您更正式地介紹我們的 2025 年指引。

With that, I'll turn it over to Katy to moderate the Q&A.

接下來，我將把問答環節交給凱蒂 (Katy) 來主持。

Thanks, Jeff. (Event Instructions) Operator, please provide the instructions for the Q&A session, and then we'll take the first caller.

謝謝，傑夫。（活動說明）接線員，請提供問答環節的說明，然後我們將接聽第一位來電。

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Michael Ryskin, Bank of America.

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指示）美國銀行邁克爾·里斯金（Michael Ryskin）。

Congrats on the quarter and the update. Jeff, maybe one for you to start. You talked about Zenrelia. Obviously, a lot of focus there. You mentioned a couple of times hitting key internal metrics. Specifically, I think you outlined clinic penetration as something to really watch. Any early indications of what those metrics are exactly? Just give us some specifics in terms of whether -- where you are now, where you hope to be at the start of the year or middle of next year, just anything you can point to so that we can track progress.

恭喜本季和更新。傑夫，也許你可以從這個開始。您談到了 Zenrelia。顯然，人們十分關注這一點。您多次提到達到關鍵的內部指標。具體來說，我認為您提到的診所滲透率是值得真正關注的事情。有沒有早期跡象顯示這些指標到底是什麼？請向我們提供一些具體信息，例如您現在的情況、您希望在今年年初或明年年中達到什麼目標，只要您能指出任何細節，以便我們跟踪進展情況。

Obviously, revenue contribution is expected to be small in the first couple of months. But what should we be looking for? Anything you can quantify to give us a sense of that early progress?

顯然，預計頭幾個月的收入貢獻會很小。但我們該尋找什麼？您能量化什麼來讓我們了解早期的進展嗎？

Great. Thank you, Michael. Great question. Yeah, let me just step back. The launch is going well, rapidly evolving, dynamic launch. We are six weeks in and the metrics that we are focusing on and that we will communicate more about -- we're not going to do that today in great detail, but we will as we get towards the next earnings call and we get into 2025. And those metrics being clinic penetration and reorder rates. So placing the product into clinics and then seeing it being used and replenished, those are the two key things.

偉大的。謝謝你，麥可。好問題。是的，讓我退後一步。發表會進展順利，發展迅速，動態發布。我們已經進入第六週了，我們關注的指標以及我們將進行更多溝通的指標——我們今天不會詳細介紹，但我們將在下一次財報電話會議和 2025 年時進行詳細介紹。這些指標是診所滲透率和重新訂購率。因此，將產品放入診所並觀察其被使用和補充，這是兩個關鍵的事情。

I think a couple of things I would focus on that I think are really important at this stage. The first is it's all about efficacy. And let me share that, as I've said, Zenrelia works. It works really well. That's what we saw in the head-to-head studies and the studies as we moved forward with the registration. And what I can say is, yes, ilunocitinib is a different active ingredient and it is delivering great efficacy. And again, as I said, we saw it in the head-to-head. We're now seeing it in the field.

我認為現階段我會專注於幾件我認為非常重要的事情。首先，一切都關乎功效。正如我所說，Zenrelia 是有效的。效果確實很好。這就是我們在頭對頭研究和註冊過程中的研究中看到的結果。我可以說的是，伊諾替尼是一種不同的活性成分，而且療效顯著。正如我所說，我們在面對面的較量中看到了這一點。我們現在在現場看到了它。

Of course, it's been given the tough cases where other products did not work. That's been obvious in the early stages. And what I can share, Michael, is it's performed exceptionally well. Some of these have become case studies that are being used with other veterinarians.

當然，它也曾面臨其他產品無法解決的棘手情況。這在早期階段就已經很明顯了。邁克爾，我可以分享的是，它的表現非常出色。其中一些已成為其他獸醫正在使用的案例研究。

I think a couple of things I would say is we do see several hundred new clinics are taking on Zenrelia each week. The ramp is tracking nicely to our expectations. Clinic reorder rates have stepped up every week for the six weeks since the launch, and the early signs is our strategy is working. And just a reminder on the strategy, it's around vet education, experience and high share of voice. And our first kind of round of incentives for our reps are targeted for the end of the year. And again, we'll be reporting those results as we get into Q1 with you.

我想說的是，我們確實看到每周有數百家新診所接受 Zenrelia。坡道進展順利，符合我們的預期。自推出以來的六週內，診所的重新訂購率每週都在上升，早期跡象表明我們的策略正在發揮作用。需要提醒的是，該策略圍繞著獸醫教育、經驗和高發言權。我們針對銷售代表的第一輪激勵計畫計劃於年底推出。再次，我們將在進入第一季時向您報告這些結果。

And I think it's just a couple of other, just real quick, as it's been asked about where this product is being used. We will say, in the early stages, it is being used in all three segments of chronic, seasonal and acute. It's being used in general practices, and we continue to make good progress with strategic accounts. We've actually secured agreements a little faster than we originally thought with strategics and it's being placed online.

我認為這只是其他幾個問題，只是很快，因為有人問過這個產品在哪裡使用。我們可以說，在早期階段，它被用於慢性、季節性和急性三個階段。它正在被應用於一般實踐中，而且我們在戰略帳戶方面繼續取得良好進展。實際上，我們比原先預想的更快地達成了戰略協議，並且該協議已在網上發布。

So -- and look, I will point to the segment of there are veterinarians that actually desire more information before full adoption, and this is where we've taken a very tech-to-tech approach, where the booster data has been helpful. And what we're seeing there is that there's a longer selling cycle or maybe a lower first order rate initially. So that's where we are, and we'll continue to give you more specifics as we head into 2025.

所以——看，我要指出的是，有些獸醫實際上希望在全面採用之前獲得更多信息，而這正是我們採取技術對技術的方法的地方，其中加強劑數據很有幫助。我們看到的情況是，銷售週期更長，或首次訂單率更低。這就是我們現在的情況，在邁入 2025 年之際，我們將繼續為您提供更多具體資訊。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe for my follow-up, a little bit more of a big picture question. Somebody touched on it at the end of the prepared remarks in terms of the 2025 framework. As you indicated before, not expecting a ton of operating leverage in '25 because of the investments to drive those new brands. So hence, the mid-single-digit top-line growth, but then EBITDA is sort of mid-single, low-single, depending on what you're looking at.

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後也許對於我的後續問題，我會問一個更大一點的問題。有人在2025框架的準備好的發言結束時談到了這一點。正如您之前所說，由於投資推動這些新品牌，預計 25 年不會出現大量的經營槓桿。因此，營收成長率處於中等個位數，但 EBITDA 也處於中等個位數或低個位數，這取決於你所關注的因素。

But I think what we're focused on is sort of that underlying operating leverage or what the operating leverage could be in '26, '27. I'm not going to ask you to guide to 2026 just now. But just could you sort of walk us through that bridge of what's holding back 2025 operating leverage and how much? So how much from the gross margin pressures? How much from the incremental investments? How much from sort of these are going to be Quattro and Zenrelia that are going to be low-volume products, so not as much contribution to margins? And that will help us get a sense of sort of, let's say, you do mid-single-digit growth going forward, what kind of operating leverage we could expect in the out years? Hopefully, that makes sense. Thanks.

但我認為，我們關注的是潛在的經營槓桿，或者 26 年和 27 年的營運槓桿可能會是多少。我現在還不會請你指導到 2026 年。但您能否向我們簡要介紹一下，是什麼阻礙了 2025 年的經營槓桿，以及阻礙程度有多大？那麼來自毛利率的壓力有多大？增量投資有多少？其中 Quattro 和 Zenrelia 佔比是多少？這將幫助我們了解，假設你未來的成長速度達到中位數個位數，那麼未來幾年我們可以預期什麼樣的經營槓桿？希望這是有意義的。謝謝。

Yes, Michael. It's Todd. Thanks for the question. We obviously wanted to give some framework here for 2025 a little earlier than we normally would. We're excited to have these products approved in the marketplace.

是的，邁克爾。是托德。謝謝你的提問。我們顯然想比平常稍微早一點為 2025 年提供一些框架。我們很高興這些產品獲得市場認可。

The sales growth from innovation is what's going to drive the bottom line. As you rightly point out, in 2025, it won't be as fast as the top-line growth. The UK CMO situation is clearly pulling us down at the gross margin level, and then we're going to work really hard to keep our G&A functions flat to declining, so we can take incremental savings from there and really invest it behind these potential blockbusters.

創新帶來的銷售成長才是推動獲利的關鍵。正如您正確指出的那樣，到 2025 年，它的成長速度不會像營收成長那麼快。英國 CMO 的情況顯然拉低了我們的毛利率水平，然後我們將非常努力地保持我們的 G&A 功能平穩或下降，這樣我們就可以從那裡獲得增量節省，並將其真正投資於這些潛在的大片。

The Credelio Quattro and Zenrelia, we're really excited to have in the field and want to get understanding with consumers and vets about how efficacious and good these products are. So we'll be growing those sorts of investments in line or faster than the sales growth that comes from that, all with an expectation of building momentum for the next 3, 5, 10 years, where we'll start to get that leverage you spoke of and start driving our profitability faster on the bottom line than on the top line in '26, as Jeff mentioned in the prepared remarks.

我們非常高興能夠將 Credelio Quattro 和 Zenrelia 引入該領域，並希望消費者和獸醫能夠了解這些產品的功效和優點。因此，我們將以與銷售成長同步或更快的速度進行此類投資，並期望在未來 3 年、5 年、10 年內積聚動力，正如傑夫在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們將開始獲得您所說的槓桿作用，並開始在 26 年以比頂線更快的速度提高我們的盈利能力。

Jon Block, Stifel.

喬恩·布洛克（Jon Block），斯蒂費爾（Stifel）。

Todd, thanks for the 2025 preliminary guidance. I certainly think it's helpful. I guess, you gave 2025 preliminary and then we'll all sort of noodle and see what else we can get. So going down that road, I just think the EBITDA, low single-digit growth adjusted for aqua, I'm just trying to, again, a high-level thinking about the cadence. Do we view that as somewhat back-end weighted because it's suppressed because of the investments? And so should we think about the investments more prominent? Or at least it's all cash out, call it, in the early part of the year?

托德，感謝您對 2025 年的初步指導。我當然認為它是有幫助的。我想，你給了 2025 年的初步結果，然後我們會進行整理，看看還能得到什麼。因此，沿著這條路走下去，我只是認為 EBITDA，經過水產品調整後的低個位數增長，我只是想再次從高層次思考節奏。我們是否認為這在某種程度上是後端加權的，因為它因投資而受到抑制？那我們是否應該更加重視投資？還是至少在年初就全部兌現了？

So revenues will follow for both Zenrelia and Quattro, maybe even IL-31. But when we think about the low single digit, again, anything on the cadence and sort of where I went with the question? Is that the right way to maybe work it through the model in '25?

因此 Zenrelia 和 Quattro 甚至 IL-31 的收入都會隨之增加。但是，當我們再次考慮低個位數時，關於節奏和我對這個問題的看法有什麼不同嗎？這是否是透過 '25 模型來解決這個問題的正確方法？

Jon, I don't even want to give guidance for '25 this early, and now you want me to give quarterlies. No, I appreciate the question. And yes, I think you're thinking about it correctly. We're going to make the investments. You see it even here in the Q3 numbers, where most of the investments are really driven by the expanded pet health sales force that we brought on at the start of the year. They know their customers. The customers know them well. And so that's really set up here as we launch Zenrelia.

喬恩，我甚至不想這麼早就給出 25 年的指導，而現在你卻想讓我給出季度指導。不，我很感謝你提出這個問題。是的，我認為你的想法是正確的。我們將進行投資。您甚至可以在第三季的數據中看到，大多數投資實際上都是由我們在今年年初引入的擴大的寵物健康銷售團隊所推動的。他們了解他們的客戶。顧客們都很了解他們。這是我們推出 Zenrelia 時真正要做的事。

And then close on the heels will be coming Quattro, and those investments will be in front of the sales ramp. And so yes, we generally think that the cadence you're thinking about being a little more front-end loaded on investment with sales growth over the course of the year.

緊隨其後的是 Quattro，這些投資將用於銷售成長。所以是的，我們通常認為，您所考慮的節奏是在一年內更多地投入前端投資和銷售成長。

At the same time, Experior and the heifer clearances we got here in the last couple of weeks, we'll keep it ramping up and growing. And then Adtab, which is that parasiticide season, first half continues to grow really nicely as well. So we're excited by all the innovation we have, especially on the global footprint, not just what Zenrelia and Quattro will do for our US vet business.

同時，我們將繼續增加和發展 Experior 以及過去幾週我們獲得的母牛許可。然後是 Adtab，也就是殺蟲劑季節，上半年也繼續很好地成長。因此，我們對我們所有的創新感到興奮，特別是在全球範圍內的創新，而不僅僅是 Zenrelia 和 Quattro 將為我們的美國獸醫業務帶來的變化。

Got it. Very helpful. And then I'll just shift gears and go back to Zenrelia. And Jeff, is there a percent of practices that are saying the label is a nonstarter for me? Hey, look, I just can't get my arms around this and even with your additional data around dosing, this is a nonstarter.

知道了。非常有幫助。然後我會換個方式回到 Zenrelia。傑夫，有沒有百分之幾的實踐表明這個標籤對我來說是行不通的？嘿，看，我就是無法理解這一點，即使有你關於劑量的額外數據，這也是行不通的。

Is it 10% of practices that you reached out to? Was it 40%? If you don't want to give that, maybe if you can help us out if it's been in line with expectations. I mean, clearly, we'll have to see where practice penetration falls. And I'm guessing that takes several visits from an Elanco rep to eventually get there. But I'm just curious in the early days of that noise around the label and the nonstarter and how that compares to company expectations. Thank you.

您接觸的實務佔比是 10% 嗎？是 40% 嗎？如果您不想給這個，如果它符合預期，也許您可以幫助我們。我的意思是，顯然，我們必須看看實踐滲透率下降到了哪裡。我猜 Elanco 代表需要多次訪問才能最終實現這一目標。但我只是好奇，早期圍繞著這個品牌和這個失敗者的喧囂有什麼不同，以及這與公司的預期相比如何。謝謝。

Yeah, great question, Jon. I would say if I look at the segments that are occupying our time right now and really provide the great opportunity is the early adopters, and they're ramping and we're servicing them and that's expanding. So as you get into more and more clinics, then you're starting to see the size of orders and the replenishing grow. And so we continue to see that segment being quite material and significant and will lead our ramping of clinics, as I said, to several hundred or so per week.

是的，喬恩，你問得好。我想說，如果我看看現在佔據我們時間的細分市場，真正提供絕佳機會的是早期採用者，他們正在加大力度，我們正在為他們提供服務，而且這種機會正在不斷擴大。因此，隨著您進入越來越多的診所，您將開始看到訂單規模和補貨量的成長。因此，我們繼續認為這一部分非常重要且意義重大，並將使我們的診所數量（正如我所說的）增加到每週幾百個左右。

And then I think the second one is what you're highlighting is we don't see any stopping. What we're seeing is the vets that we expected that really want to just be able to have that scientific discussion, tech to tech, review the booster data, has been extremely helpful and alleviated a lot of questions and concerns.

然後我認為第二個是你強調的我們沒有看到任何停止。我們看到的是，正如我們所料，獸醫確實希望能夠進行科學討論，進行技術交流，審查加強劑數據，這非常有幫助，並減輕了很多疑問和擔憂。

And then what does that lead to? It leads to two metrics, Jon, that we're seeing. One is more call frequency needed. When you may have needed one or two calls, that may go up a little more. So we're increasing whether it's tele approaches to make it more efficient, more dinners, so we can have more touch points more efficiently in a more accelerated way.

那麼這會導致什麼結果呢？喬恩，我們看到了兩個指標。一是需要增加呼叫頻率。當你可能需要打一兩通電話時，這個數字可能會稍微增加一些。因此，我們正在增加遠端方式，以提高效率，增加晚餐次數，以便我們能夠以更快的方式更有效地獲得更多接觸點。

And then second is the orders tend to be a little smaller so -- on that segment, which is, hey, we want to get it in. We want to try it. We want to try them maybe in our trouble cases, and then that ramps. So actually, we like the trajectory of these metrics in these segments and the approaches. We haven't had to adjust our strategy. We have shifted some resources. But again, we're very pleased where we are.

其次，訂單往往比較小，所以 — — 在這個領域，我們想要把它拿到手。我們想嘗試一下。我們可能想在遇到麻煩時嘗試它們，然後事情就會好轉。因此實際上，我們喜歡這些細分市場中的這些指標的軌跡和方法。我們沒有必要調整我們的策略。我們已經轉移了一些資源。但我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。

And I would back up, Jon, you know this is -- we continue to be very excited about the size of the derm market. It continues to grow. I believe in the US, it's growing at 15% the last 12 months, and we're making nice progress. We also have a -- our regulatory team has the meeting with the FDA this month, and the submission of that additional data to the FDA has already happened prior to that meeting. So great progress.

我要支持這一點，喬恩，你知道，我們仍然對皮膚病市場的規模感到非常興奮。它還在繼續增長。我相信，美國的經濟在過去 12 個月中成長了 15%，並且取得了良好的進展。我們的監管團隊本月還將與 FDA 舉行會議，並且在會議之前已經向 FDA 提交了額外數據。進步真大。

Erin Wright, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的艾琳·賴特。

So on IL-31, can you give us an update on your conversations with the USDA on that product and how we think about the timing of the launch first half, second half? And just the opportunity with the long-acting in light of Zenrelia, and it sounds like you're scaling up the manufacturing in mAbs? And just how you think about the competitive landscape, I guess, evolving in derm? Thanks.

那麼關於 IL-31，您能否向我們介紹一下您與美國農業部就該產品的對話情況，以及我們對上半年和下半年推出的時間表的看法？鑑於 Zenrelia 的長效作用，這聽起來像是您正在擴大 mAb 的生產規模？您如何看待皮膚科領域的競爭格局的變化？謝謝。

Yeah. Thank you, Erin. There's no question. I'll start with the overall derm market. We have numerous assets. As you know, we're starting with Zenrelia. We've got short-acting and long-acting coming. Short-acting, expecting an approval in '25, as you know. And then this is a key area of focus for Elan, and we really are excited about what is in our pipeline in derm. And again, next-generation first and best-in-class overall.

是的。謝謝你，艾琳。毫無疑問。我將從整體皮膚病市場開始。我們擁有眾多資產。如您所知，我們從 Zenrelia 開始。我們已推出短效和長效藥物。短效藥，如您所知，預計在 25 年獲得批准。這是 Elan 關注的一個重點領域，我們對我們在皮膚科領域的研發成果感到非常興奮。再次，它是下一代產品中的首款產品，並且總體而言是同類產品中的最佳產品。

Specific to the IL-31, the engagement is going well, not really anything new to report other than it's progressing well. We continue to see it as a blockbuster product differentiated from the incumbent in the market today, and it will be a nice complement to Zenrelia and we'll globalize the launch as we are with Zenrelia. But again, things are progressing and all we'll say at this point in time is approval expected in '25.

具體來說，對於 IL-31 來說，交戰進展順利，除了進展順利之外，沒有什麼新消息可報告。我們繼續將其視為與當今市場現有產品有區別的重磅產品，它將是對 Zenrelia 的良好補充，我們將像 Zenrelia 一樣實現全球化發布。但是，事情正在再次取得進展，目前我們只能說預計在 25 年獲得批准。

Okay, thanks. And on Credelio and Credelio Quattro, I guess how are you thinking about pricing here? And when you launched, I guess, legacy Credelio, you were at a premium. Do you expect to take a similar approach, just given the differentiation of the product?

好的，謝謝。關於 Credelio 和 Credelio Quattro，我想您是如何考慮定價的？我想，當你推出舊版 Credelio 時，你的價格非常高。考慮到產品的差異化，您是否希望採取類似的方法？

And on Zenrelia and pricing, so two pricing questions here. Just given the dosing for larger dogs, is the pricing still shaking out to about a 20% discount relative to the competitor? Or is that playing out according to plan? Thanks.

關於 Zenrelia 和定價，這裡有兩個定價問題。僅考慮到大型犬的劑量，定價是否仍比競爭對手低約 20％？或者說一切都照計畫進行？謝謝。

I'll take the first one. I'll give Todd to Zenrelia here. But on Quattro, we're looking at this as, overall, I think, Erin, most importantly is the biggest trend I see right now in animal health is this broad-spectrum parasiticide market especially here in the US is growing and now accounts for about 25% of the $3.8 billion market in the US. And it's taking share really from legacy products inside the vet clinic, and so we look forward to entering with Quattro.

我選擇第一個。我要把托德交給這裡的 Zenrelia。但在 Quattro 上，我們正​​在研究這個問題，總體而言，我認為，艾琳，最重要的是，我看到的目前動物健康領域的最大趨勢是廣譜殺蟲劑市場，特別是在美國，該市場正在成長，目前占美國 38 億美元市場的 25% 左右。它確實搶佔了獸醫診所內傳統產品的份額，因此我們期待與 Quattro 一起進入該市場。

This will be a very heavy consumer component-type launch. It's more of an uninvolved category. So to Todd's earlier point, we do expect launching this product ahead of the parasiticide season in Q1 and taking a DTC and a heavy investment approach as it's a little bit more of an uninvolved category as a whole.

這將是一次非常重磅的消費組件類型的發布。它更像是一個不相關的類別。因此，正如 Todd 之前所說，我們確實希望在第一季的殺蟲劑季節之前推出這款產品，並採取 DTC 和大量投資的方式，因為從整體上來說，這是一個不太受關注的類別。

When it comes to pricing, we'll take a value-based approach. We believe we've got, as you know, a differentiated asset here. But also, again, back to the no-regrets approach, we want to take share. We want to gain experience. We believe notionally, our core portfolio is still smaller so we see this, without question, will grow our share in parasiticides in the US and be a key accelerator to returning US pet back to growth as we go into 2025.

在定價方面，我們將採取基於價值的方法。正如您所知，我們相信我們在這裡擁有差異化的資產。但是，再次回到無悔的態度，我們希望獲得份額。我們想要獲得經驗。我們認為，從理論上講，我們的核心投資組合仍然較小，因此我們認為，毫無疑問，這將增加我們在美國殺蟲劑中的份額，並成為 2025 年美國寵物恢復成長的關鍵加速器。

With respect to the pricing question on Zenrelia, Erin, it is, on average, about a 20% discount with this introductory pricing that we started with Zenrelia to really give a great value for consumers as they think about how to treat their itchy dogs. Given the way we've structured the pricing for larger dogs, it's a bigger discount to the 20%, which is really valuable given the nature of the dosing they need to get the animal under control. You can see the pricing deltas on the online retailers that both us and our competitor uses. But overall, we're pleased with the pricing strategy that Bobby and his team have launched and are thrilled to be allowing pet owners to have a more reasonable price to offer to really solve their itchy dog problems.

關於 Zenrelia 的定價問題，Erin，我們開始推出 Zenrelia 的介紹定價時，平均有大約 20% 的折扣，這確實為消費者在考慮如何治療狗狗瘙癢時提供了巨大的價值。考慮到我們針對大型犬隻所製定的定價方式，20% 的折扣幅度更大，考慮到控制動物所需的劑量性質，這確實很有價值。您可以看到我們和我們的競爭對手使用的線上零售商的定價差異。但總體而言，我們對 Bobby 和他的團隊推出的定價策略感到滿意，並很高興能夠讓寵物主人以更合理的價格真正解決他們的狗狗癢癢問題。

Brandon Vazquez, William Blair.

布蘭登·巴斯克斯、威廉·布萊爾。

As we go into 2025, can you talk a little bit about -- I think there was a comment about this earlier with your sales force. Are there going to be any changes in comp? You obviously have a lot of new good products that the sales force is going to want to push. Any changes to the comp works to make sure that the entire portfolio is kind of moving forward? Just curious if there's anything notable there to talk about.

當我們進入 2025 年時，您能否稍微談談——我認為您的銷售團隊之前對此有所評論。薪酬方面會發生哪些變化？顯然，您有很多新的好產品，銷售人員會想要推銷。對公司進行任何改變以確保整個投資組合向前發展？只是好奇是否有什麼值得談論的事情。

It's a great question, Brandon. It's something we've put a lot of attention on the last couple of years. Bobby, his team, some of Todd's team brought in some outside expertise. We believe our incentives for sales reps are key to sell and prioritize the portfolio. What I would say is we will have incentives that will be geared definitely with a little bias to the new products and the ability to sell that broader portfolio.

這是一個很好的問題，布蘭登。這是我們過去幾年來非常關注的事情。鮑比 (Bobby)、他的團隊以及托德 (Todd) 的部分團隊引入了一些外部專業知識。我們相信，對銷售代表的激勵是銷售和優先考慮投資組合的關鍵。我想說的是，我們肯定會採取一些偏向新產品的激勵措施，並提高銷售更廣泛產品組合的能力。

At the same time, they're going to be more enabled where another investment has come is really just around next-generation commercial, where we've got the digital ability to actually know what we need to detail. What wasn't detailed is being followed up with tele-sales or with electronic engagement. And we've really proven that out with some of the new products like Zorbium and the parvovirus monoclonal antibody.

同時，他們將獲得更多的支持，另一項投資實際上是圍繞下一代商業，我們擁有數位化能力，可以真正了解我們需要詳細說明的內容。沒有詳細說明的是，將透過電話銷售或電子方式進行跟進。我們已經透過一些新產品（例如 Zorbium 和細小病毒單株抗體）證明了這一點。

So those are the two areas of investment. We again, as I said, have our reps very incented on Zenrelia now to the end of the year, and we'll be updating that as we bring Quattro to the marketplace.

這就是兩個投資領域。正如我所說，從現在到今年年底，我們的代表對 Zenrelia 非常感興趣，隨著 Quattro 推向市場，我們會更新這一點。

Okay. Great. And as a follow-up, Seresto and Advantage, if I collectively do those revenues year to date, up about 7% reported, probably up a little higher even on an organic basis, which is encouraging. So I'm just curious if you could talk to -- this is almost, I think, 40% of your pet health sales at this point. How durable is kind of like a 7% level? Is this -- do you guys feel like this might be a new level here where you can maintain or grow off of into '25? Thank you.

好的。偉大的。接下來，如果我把 Seresto 和 Advantage 的年初至今收入加起來，報告顯示它們增長了約 7%，甚至在有機基礎上可能還會略有增長，這是令人鼓舞的。所以我很好奇，您是否可以談談——我認為，目前這幾乎佔您寵物保健銷售額的 40%。7% 等級的耐用性如何？這是——你們覺得這可能是一個新的水平，你們可以在這個水平上維持或發展到 25 年嗎？謝謝。

Thanks for the question, Brandon, on the portfolio. Yes, Seresto has had a nice year. Some of that is influenced by the bounce back in Spain to put that growth rate a little higher than what we'd say the normalized level is. In the US, we continue to make nice progress with our physical availability, more points of distribution, more different price points by bringing back the A family originals with Classic.

感謝布蘭登提出有關投資組合的問題。是的，Seresto 今年過得很愉快。其中部分受到西班牙經濟反彈的影響，使得成長率略高於我們所說的正常水準。在美國，我們透過重新推出 A 家族原版和 Classic 產品，繼續在實體供應、分銷點和價格差異化方面取得良好進展。

I wouldn't say we expect 7%. We're probably closer to low single-digit expectations for the portfolio. As a reminder, we've added Adtab and given it uses the A family name, and so that's a real positive. The drag on A family is with Advocate inside the vet clinic, where like the legacy portfolio of parasiticides is getting impacted and why we're so excited to bring Credelio Quattro to the US like we already have Credelio Plus outside the US.

我不會說我們預期7%。我們對投資組合的預期可能更接近低個位數。提醒一下，我們添加了 Adtab，並給它使用了 A 家族名稱，所以這真的很積極。對 A 家庭來說，拖累在於獸醫診所內的 Advocate，就像傳統的殺寄生蟲劑產品組合受到影響一樣，這就是為什麼我們如此興奮地將 Credelio Quattro 帶到美國，就像我們在美國以外已經擁有 Credelio Plus 一樣。

And then on the A family, we're also -- we've relaunched our supplements inside our retailers under the Advantage family name. Don't expect that to be a massive product category for us, but it continues to build out our relationships as a key supplier to the Walmarts, the Petcos, the Tractor Supply stores that are so important for this business to help customers get our products wherever they want to shop.

然後對於 A 家族，我們還在零售商處以 Advantage 家族的名義重新推出了我們的補充劑。我並不指望這對我們來說會是一個龐大的產品類別，但它將繼續加強我們作為沃爾瑪、Petcos、拖拉機用品商店等主要供應商的關係，這對我們業務非常重要，可以幫助客戶在任何地方購買我們的產品。

And I would link it, too, there's a common question in our industry. It's about vet visits and this has really been part of our strategy as the omnichannel approach in and outside the vet clinic has actually helped us insulate. We're seeing that now with that trend as well as with the economic pressures. As some pet owner segments trade down, as Todd mentioned, we've been able to actually capture that share with the Advantage Classic and others. So those are two trends externally that actually we think Elanco is actually competitively well positioned for.

我也會將其聯繫起來，這是我們行業中的一個常見問題。這是關於獸醫的訪問，這實際上是我們策略的一部分，因為獸醫診所內外的全通路方法實際上幫助我們隔離。我們現在看到了這種趨勢以及經濟壓力。正如托德所提到的那樣，隨著一些寵物主人群體的消費水平下降，我們實際上已經能夠透過 Advantage Classic 和其他產品佔領這一份額。因此，從外部來看，我們認為 Elanco 實際上已經具備了良好的競爭優勢。

Balaji Prasad, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的巴拉吉‧普拉薩德 (Balaji Prasad)。

Thanks for the questions. So firstly, I can't help feel that the expanded portfolio should give you a significant portfolio advantage that you haven't had much with the veterinary clinics. So with that, I'm surprised to see competition in US pet health vet clinics still being called out as headwind -- as a material headwind for 2025. So which are the areas where you expect to be at a competitive disadvantage, and where you are in the cycle too?

感謝您的提問。因此，首先，我不禁感到，擴大後的投資組合應該會給你帶來顯著的優勢，而這是獸醫診所所沒有的。因此，我很驚訝地看到美國寵物健康獸醫診所的競爭仍然被稱為逆風——2025 年的重大逆風。那麼，您預期自己在哪些領域會處於競爭劣勢？

Secondly, congratulations on reaching Experior blockbuster status. So what does it mean for long-term direction of growth? How would you quantify the current level of market penetration or market saturation? Thank you.

其次，恭喜您達到Experior大片地位。那麼這對於長期成長方向意味著什麼？您如何量化目前的市場滲透率或市場飽和度？謝謝。

Sure, Balaji. We feel good about that portfolio. But there's a reality of the para business inside the vet clinic, where we expect Credelio Quattro to cannibalize some of our own brands but also continue that competitive pressure. Net-net, we're going to grow in US pet health here in Q4 and next year because of the innovation we're bringing to the marketplace.

當然，巴拉吉。我們對該投資組合感到滿意。但在獸醫診所內部的輔助業務中存在一個現實問題，我們預計 Credelio Quattro 會蠶食我們的一些自有品牌，但也會繼續保持競爭壓力。總體而言，由於我們為市場帶來的創新，我們將在第四季度和明年在美國寵物健康領域實現成長。

With respect to Experior, we're thrilled with respect to the launch, the ramp. As we said, calling out that it will exceed $100 million globally in 2024. And now with these heifer clearances, we're accessing about 40% of the feedlot animals that we couldn't access before. So that allows this growth to continue, and it will be a big driver of our mid-single-digit growth in '25.

就 Experior 而言，我們對它的發布和發展感到非常興奮。正如我們所說，預計 2024 年全球收入將超過 1 億美元。現在，透過對這些小母牛進行清理，我們可以接觸到大約 40% 以前無法接觸到的飼養場動物。這樣就可以讓這種成長持續下去，並且將成為我們25年實現中等個位數成長的主要動力。

Chris Schott, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的克里斯·肖特 (Chris Schott)。

Just two questions for me. Maybe first, just talk about kind of bigger picture pricing outlook as we head into next year. It's been maybe a healthier environment for pricing the last few years. I was wondering if you expect that to be able to continue into 2025 or normalize a bit.

我只有兩個問題。也許首先，我們只是談談明年更大的定價前景。過去幾年的定價環境可能更健康。我想知道您是否預計這種情況將持續到 2025 年或稍微正常化。

My second question was just on Quattro and just -- can you just elaborate a little bit on how you see the product ramping next year as you come to market? I guess my question here is should we initially expect that a lot of the use here are prior Credelio users, I guess, initially in 2025? Or do you think you can kind of right off the bat target maybe a broader swath of vets to adopt the product? I'm just trying to say, is that more of a '25 event? Or is that something that plays out more over time? Thank you.

我的第二個問題是關於 Quattro 的，您能否詳細說明您如何看待該產品明年上市時的發展？我的問題是，我們是否應該最初預期這裡的許多用戶都是之前的 Credelio 用戶，我想，最初是在 2025 年？或者您認為您可以立即瞄準更廣泛的獸醫來採用該產品？我只是想說，這更像是 '25 事件嗎？或者這是隨著時間的推移而進一步發生的事情？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks, Chris. On pricing, we've seen as an industry, as you know, for a lot of years, 2% as an average. Higher in pet, higher in the new innovation areas, lower in farm animal and the generic categories. We saw that rise up a little higher coming out of inflation in the last couple of years. And I believe that it's probably headed back more to historical levels over time.

是的，謝謝，克里斯。在定價方面，如你所知，多年來我們看到行業平均定價為 2%。寵物類目較高，新創新領域類目較高，農場動物類目及一般類目較低。我們看到，在過去幾年通貨膨脹的背景下，這一數字略有上升。我相信，隨著時間的推移，它可能會回到歷史水平。

But no question, innovation coming into a portfolio gives you the ability to leverage price, and that's what we're doing. The portfolios that have a significant innovation in them, we're able to actually raise the price for the portfolio. So I think it's going to fall somewhere in between for us as we head into 2025.

但毫無疑問，投資組合中的創新可以讓你有能力利用價格，而這正是我們正在做的事情。對於包含重大創新的投資組合，我們實際上能夠提高其價格。因此我認為，當我們邁向 2025 年時，這個數字將會介於兩者之間。

As you look at Quattro, look, as I mentioned, how do we see this ramping? There's no question. I'll reiterate we believe that we're bringing this product in and made a lot of good progress to prepare for the launch to be in the market in Q1 ahead of the season. We will be investing accordingly because we do believe the season matters. And -- but I also would say that this broad-spectrum parasiticide segment has shown less seasonality and much more focus on launching, penetrating in the markets that you're going to target. So we expect it to ramp, but we do expect that will occur over the course of the full year.

當你看到 Quattro 時，就像我提到的那樣，我們如何看待這種成長？毫無疑問。我重申一下，我們相信我們會推出這款產品，並且已經取得了很大進展，為在旺季來臨之前在第一季度上市做好準備。我們將進行相應的投資，因為我們確實相信賽季很重要。而且——但我還想說，這種廣譜殺蟲劑領域的季節性較少，而更注重推出和滲透目標市場。因此，我們預計它會加速，但我們確實預計這將在全年內發生。

Umer Raffat, Evercore ISI.

Umer Raffat，Evercore ISI。

This is Mike DiFiore in for Umer. Three quick ones for me. First, regarding the Zenrelia vaccination booster study. I noticed in that trial that except for canine distemper virus, 100% of dogs remained above the prespecified protective thresholds at the 1x and 3x dose levels. Just kind of curious as to what explains the canine distemper component not hitting these levels and is that a sticking point among vets who may be on the line? I also have two follow-ups. Thank you.

這是 Mike DiFiore，代替 Umer。對我來說很簡單，就是三個。首先，關於 Zenrelia 疫苗加強劑研究。我在那次試驗中註意到，除了犬瘟熱病毒外，100% 的狗在 1 倍和 3 倍劑量水平下仍保持在預先指定的保護閾值之上。只是有點好奇，如何解釋犬瘟熱成分沒有達到這些水平，這是否是獸醫可能遇到的癥結點？我還有兩個後續問題。謝謝。

Yeah, Michael, the booster study, again, was run very well, one, three times the Zenrelia dose, number of dogs achieving, as I said, appropriate titers above the vaccine. And this has been received very well and very consistent results. And again, no serious adverse events were observed, and this has been extremely helpful in the vet-to-vet conversations.

是的，邁克爾，加強劑研究再次進行得非常順利，Zenrelia 劑量是原來的一到三倍，正如我所說，許多狗都達到了高於疫苗的適當滴度。而這項措施得到了非常好的反響和非常一致的結果。並且，沒有觀察到任何嚴重的不良事件，這對獸醫之間的對話非常有幫助。

Got it. Okay. Next, moving on to Quattro. Obviously, tapeworm is surely more endemic to certain geographic regions in the US. But in geographic areas that it isn't endemic, can you speak to the level of enthusiasm and receptiveness for this product? And would you expect more seasonality for Quattro in these non-endemic regions?

知道了。好的。接下來，轉到 Quattro。顯然，絛蟲在美國某些地區更為常見。但是在該病非流行的地理區域，您能談談人們對這種產品的熱情和接受度嗎？您是否認為 Quattro 在這些非流行地區的季節性會更強？

And lastly and separately, I noticed that your expected innovation sales in 2024 has crept up $10 million at the midpoint, from $400 million to $450 million now to $420 million to $450 million. I may have missed this, but what's expected to drive this incremental increase in innovation revenue? Thank you.

最後，另外，我注意到您預計的 2024 年創新銷售額中位數已上漲 1000 萬美元，從 4 億美元到 4.5 億美元增加到 4.2 億美元到 4.5 億美元。我可能忽略了這一點，但預計什麼將推動創新收入的逐步增加？謝謝。

Yeah. I'll let Todd take the second one. On the first one, look, the first thing, Mike, that's going to drive is what you're seeing is this trend. You've got $3.8 billion in the US of parasiticides. A little over $1 billion now is these broad-spectrum [endectos]. We're coming into that market. We see the natural growth of taking share across that larger market is probably one of the best tailwinds that we see overall.

是的。我會讓托德拿第二個。首先，看，麥克，首先要推動的是你所看到的這種趨勢。美國有價值 38 億美元的殺寄生蟲劑。目前這些廣譜 [endectos] 的價值略高於 10 億美元。我們正在進入那個市場。我們看到，在更大的市場中自然地佔據份額增長可能是我們所看到的整體最好的順風之一。

Broadest coverage always is -- so broad coverage always is a benefit. We also would add not just the tapeworm element, but we put out recent data around tick efficacy, which I think is a real positive. And we've got heartworm first month control and prevention. So a few layers of differentiation, a big, fast-growing market, and we've got a lot of expertise in one of the largest sales forces in the US and a good distribution relationship as well. All of these are components that give us great advantage going into 2025 with Credelio Quattro.

最廣泛的覆蓋範圍始終是—因此，廣泛的覆蓋範圍始終是有益的。我們不僅添加了絛蟲元素，而且還發布了有關蜱蟲功效的最新數據，我認為這是非常積極的。我們已經對心絲蟲病進行了第一個月的控制和預防。因此，存在幾個層次的差異化，一個龐大且快速成長的市場，而且我們擁有美國最大的銷售團隊之一的豐富專業知識以及良好的分銷關係。所有這些因素都將為我們在 2025 年使用 Credelio Quattro 提供巨大優勢。

And then Mike, on the innovation increase, it's really the Experior continuing to ramp a little faster than we expected last quarter as well as Adtab and Credelio Plus outside the US.

然後麥克，關於創新的成長，實際上是 Experior 繼續以比我們上個季度預期更快的速度成長，以及美國以外的 Adtab 和 Credelio Plus。

David Westenberg, Piper Sandler.

大衛‧韋斯滕伯格，派珀‧桑德勒。

It's going to sound like I'm jumping around. But in all actuality, I'm just trying to get to kind of contribution margins as we're moving into '25 and 2026. So on the farm animal side, nice update on Bovaer. Are there any other states or countries in the pipeline that could be active and staying on farm animal? Heifer -- Experior and the heifer update, that's great. Can you give us a little bit of flavor in terms of the size of this opportunity? And is Experior have more of a pet op margin or more of a farm animal margin? And maybe it's going to change as we get more volume?

這聽起來就像我在跳來跳去。但實際上，我只是想在我們進入 2025 年和 2026 年時獲得某種貢獻利潤率。因此，從農場動物方面來看，Bovaer 的情況有了很好的進展。還有其他州或國家可以積極並繼續關注農場動物嗎？Heifer--Experior 和小母牛更新，太棒了。您能否向我們簡單介紹一下這個機會的規模？Experior 的寵物手術利潤率較高還是農場動物利潤率較高？隨著銷量的增加，也許這種情況會改變？

And then if we are going to see Quattro replacing Credelio, how should we think about like Credelio becoming a blockbuster? Because I would imagine that maybe it's at the $50 million point, it's dilutive to accretive or something like that. Okay, thank you.

那麼，如果我們要看到 Quattro 取代 Credelio，我們該如何看待 Credelio 成為轟動一時的作品呢？因為我可以想像，也許在 5,000 萬美元的點位上，它會產生稀釋作用，進而產生增值作用，或類似這樣的效果。好的，謝謝。

Yes, David, real quick on Bovaer. We have rights for North America, including Canada and Mexico. But our focus is on dairy, even over beef. The clearance is for dairy here in the US. And the size of the market is significant and the efficiency to reach that market and the inset market, the chain that we've set up, so that will be our focus and that has great opportunity.

是的，大衛，Bovaer 進展很快。我們擁有北美地區的版權，包括加拿大和墨西哥。但我們的重點是乳製品，甚至超過牛肉。此項許可適用於美國的乳製品。而且市場規模很大，而且進入該市場和嵌入市場的效率很高，我們已經建立了鏈條，所以這將是我們的重點，並且有很大的機會。

Again, as Todd just mentioned, we've got about 40% of heifers with this Experior clearance, so -- and still a lot of steers. There's still a lot of feedyards out there that maybe were holding to feed their steers with also heifers. So -- and it's a strong, good margin profile with an efficient OpEx reach because it's more of a B2B model in US beef and Canada, where Experior is sold.

再次，正如 Todd 剛才提到的，我們有大約 40% 的小母牛通過了 Experior 清關，因此 — — 而且仍然有很多小公牛。那裡仍然有很多飼養場，他們可能還在用小母牛餵養公牛。因此 — — 它具有強勁、良好的利潤率和高效的營運支出範圍，因為它在 Experior 銷售的美國牛肉和加拿大更像是一種 B2B 模式。

And then as we've mentioned, our overall parasiticide business is notionally smaller with Credelio Interceptor Plus. So we see cannibalization being less, and we do see Quattro being a catalyst to drive our US parasiticide business back to growth and to take share as well.

然後正如我們所提到的，由於 Credelio Interceptor Plus，我們的整體殺寄生蟲業務規模名義上較小。因此，我們看到蠶食現象減少了，我們確實看到 Quattro 成為推動我們美國殺蟲劑業務恢復成長並擴大市場份額的催化劑。

Navann Ty, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Navann Ty。

I have two on Zenrelia and one on the CMO. So maybe if you can share early vet feedback on the vaccine booster study, does it already or has the potential to influence vets regarding the withholding period before natural label change? And also, we have heard from vets the 20% to 30% range of Apoquel non-responders, which is higher than we expected. Is that in line with your expectation and vet feedback?

我在 Zenrelia 上有兩個，在 CMO 上有一個。因此，如果您可以分享獸醫對疫苗加強劑研究的早期回饋，那麼它是否已經或有可能影響獸醫關於自然標籤改變之前的停藥期？此外，我們從獸醫那裡聽說 Apoquel 不反應的比例為​​ 20% 到 30%，比我們預期的要高。這符合您的期望和獸醫的回饋嗎？

And then on the CMO, how long does it take to transition supply? And how much visibility do you have on the court proceeding to estimate the 2025 EBITDA headwind? Thank you.

那麼在 CMO 方面，供應轉換需要多長時間？您對預計 2025 年 EBITDA 逆風的法庭程序有多大了解？謝謝。

Yes. Navann, I would just say overall, the booster study has been very effective at being able to give vets comfort of how this actually worked again in more what I would say as real conditions for them in the field. And then that leads to whether it's cases or a protocol for them to use it. And again, there's a lot of market available as we continue to focus on with the label that we have today. A lot of opportunity here.

是的。納文，我只想說，總的來說，加強劑研究非常有效，能夠讓退伍軍人放心，這種研究在他們實際的戰場條件下實際上是如何再次發揮作用的。然後這就引出了他們是否可以使用它的情況或協議。而且，如果我們繼續專注於我們現有的品牌，就會有大量的市場空間。這裡有很多機會。

I won't speak specific to the number of non-responders. That varies by time of year and by segment. But overall, what we like is we've been thrown into those cases and Zenrelia has performed extremely well. Todd, on the CMO?

我不會透露未回應者的具體人數。這因季​​節和領域不同而有所差異。但總體而言，我們喜歡的是，我們已經投入到這些案例中，並且 Zenrelia 的表現非常出色。托德 (Todd)，擔任 CMO 嗎？

Navann, we're working very closely with the bankruptcy administrator in the UK to maintain supply of our products to continue to serve customers here in '24. There's a lot of ongoing discussions regarding the future, but I'm very confident that we've got a very good feel of the 2025 EBITDA impact, given how well we're working with those administrators and understanding the overall operations of that CMO.

Navann，我們正在與英國的破產管理人密切合作，以維持我們產品的供應，以便在24年繼續為這裡的客戶提供服務。關於未來有很多正在進行的討論，但考慮到我們與這些管理人員的良好合作以及對該 CMO 整體運營的了解，我非常有信心我們對 2025 年 EBITDA 的影響有很好的了解。

Thanks. With that, we'll hand it back to Jeff to close us out.

謝謝。說完這些，我們將把話題交還給傑夫來結束我們的討論。

Hey, thank you for the time today and the interest in Elanco. Just a couple of comments as I close because I think it's important. First of all, just a real focus on Elanco is growing again. We are guiding, at this earnings call, for six consecutive quarters as we close the year. And we've shifted really truly as a company from regulatory to commercial mode. And that's all built on a stabilizing base.

嘿，感謝您今天抽出時間並對 Elanco 感興趣。最後，我只想說幾則評論，因為我認為這很重要。首先，人們對 Elanco 的關注度再度上升。在本次收益電話會議上，我們對今年即將結束的連續六個季度做出了預期。作為一家公司，我們確實已經從監管模式轉向商業模式。這一切都建立在穩定的基礎上。

I think when we step back inside this company, we're looking at a portfolio of products that are either ramping, launching or entering launch as we look at Adtab, CPMA, Credelio Plus, Experior; and now the big three, Bovaer, Zenrelia and Credelio Quattro. These are differentiated assets that are entering major markets that will be the driver to accelerating our growth.

我認為，當我們回顧這家公司時，我們正在關註一系列產品，這些產品要么正在擴大規模，要么正在推出，要么正在進入推出階段，例如 Adtab、CPMA、Credelio Plus、Experior；現在則是三巨頭，Bovaer、Zenrelia 和 Credelio Quattro。這些進入主要市場的差異化資產將成為加速我們成長的動力。

The Elanco team is firmly focused and on our course. Engagement and execution are ramping. We have this no-regrets disciplined approach when it comes to tradeoffs, our focus and our resourcing, and I'm already seeing that pay off in the company. All of this is really intended to drive sequential accelerated revenue growth in Q4 and into 2025, expand our innovation sales, and ultimately increase shareholder value.

Elanco 團隊堅定地專注於我們的目標。參與度和執行力正在不斷提升。在權衡利弊、專注於重點和資源配置時，我們採取了這種毫不後悔的嚴謹態度，而且我已經在公司看到了這種做法的回報。所有這些實際上都是為了推動第四季和 2025 年的收入連續成長，擴大我們的創新銷售，並最終提高股東價值。

Thanks for your time. Special thank you to the global Elanco team that's achieved a lot this past quarter, but mostly a lot the last few years to get us to this point of opportunity on our 70th year as a company. We look forward to engaging with all of you here in the coming months.

感謝您的時間。特別感謝 Elanco 全球團隊，他們在過去的一個季度取得了許多成就，但更重要的是，他們在過去幾年裡取得了許多成就，讓我們在公司成立 70 週年之際獲得了這樣的機會。我們期待在接下來的幾個月與大家交流。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。