雅詩蘭黛 (EL) 2002 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day everyone, welcome to the Estee Lauder fiscal 2002 fourth quarter and year end conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加雅詩蘭黛 2002 財年第四季度和年終電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded and web cast.

今天的電話會議正在錄音並進行網絡直播。

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Dennis Deandrea.

對於開場白和介紹，我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Dennis Deandrea。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早上好。

Thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter and full year results.

感謝您加入我們討論我們的第四季度和全年業績。

On the called it are Fred Langhammer, President and Chief Executive Officer and Richard Kunes, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

出席會議的包括總裁兼首席執行官 Fred Langhammer 和高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Richard Kunes。

Some of our remarks today such as those including words like expects and will and about our outlook for the fiscal 2003 first quarter and full year contain forward-looking statements and actual results could differ from those we expect.

我們今天的一些言論，例如包括預期和意願等詞語以及我們對 2003 財年第一季度和全年的展望，都包含前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能與我們的預期有所不同。

In addition to factors described on the call, you would find additional factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward looking statements in our press release today and our latest 10 Q. I would like to turn the call over to Fred.

除了電話會議中描述的因素之外，您還會發現其他因素可能導致實際結果與我們今天的新聞稿和最新的 10 個問題中的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我想將電話轉給 Fred。

Thank you, Dennis.

謝謝你，丹尼斯。

Good morning ladies and gentlemen.

早上好，女士們，先生們。

I am glad you could join us today to review our fiscal 2002 results and to review our expectations for fiscal 2003.

我很高興您今天能與我們一起回顧我們 2002 財年的業績並回顧我們對 2003 財年的預期。

You all agree that fiscal '02 was a year that presented challenges that none of us expected.

你們都同意，02 財年帶來了我們沒有預料到的挑戰。

Nevertheless, I'm pleased to tell you the company responded to the challenges at hand head on.

儘管如此，我很高興地告訴您，公司正面應對了眼前的挑戰。

Our performance during the year was impeded by a number of issues.

我們這一年的業績受到一些問題的阻礙。

Needless to say, the two major markets -- America and Japan -- continue to be sluggish and the activities in September 11th, of course, and the chain reaction that caused, of course, were a major factor during the year.

不用說，兩大市場——美國和日本——持續低迷，9月11日的活動當然，以及由此引發的連鎖反應，當然是這一年的一個主要因素。

Certainly resulted in a dramatic slowdown in travel retail business, it effected many cities that live off tourism around the globe, and the overall mood in the marketplace, of course, was not exactly buoyant.

這無疑導致了旅遊零售業務的急劇放緩，影響了全球許多靠旅遊業生存的城市，當然，市場的整體情緒並不樂觀。

It also effected the activity around Christmas, which, as you all know, we talked about in past calls was rather poor performance.

這也影響了聖誕節前後的活動，眾所周知，我們在過去的電話中談到過表現相當糟糕。

In addition to that, of course, South America also imploded to some extent, particularly Argentina and that was also not good news, so what can go wrong will go wrong in a year like this.

當然除此之外，南美洲也有一定程度的內爆，尤其是阿根廷，這也不是好消息，所以在這樣的一年裡，能出問題的就一定會出問題。

I'm happy to say we're past it and we're moving forward.

我很高興地說我們已經過去了並且正在繼續前進。

Here are some of the highlights we achieved during the year.

以下是我們在這一年中取得的一些亮點。

First of all, I'm delighted to tell you that the company's record of uninterrupted growth growth, which exists over 50 years also continued this year.

首先，我很高興地告訴大家，公司50多年來不間斷的增長記錄今年也延續了下來。

I'm proud of the fact and so is this organization.

我對此感到自豪，這個組織也是如此。

In fiscal 2002, sales grew by 3 percentage points in cost and currency and 2% including foreign exchange.

2002 財年，以成本和貨幣計算的銷售額增長了 3 個百分點，包括外彙在內的銷售額增長了 2%。

This result was all the more gratifying given all what have happened last year.

考慮到去年發生的一切，這一結果更加令人欣慰。

Our growth was achieved because our worldwide team responded to near-term issuing while staying focused on the long-term health of the brands.

我們之所以能夠實現增長，是因為我們的全球團隊在應對近期發行的同時，仍專注於品牌的長期健康發展。

We mobilized our teams, stuck to our fundamentals and focused on asset management, including inventory reduction and cash flow.

我們動員團隊，堅持基本面，專注於資產管理，包括減少庫存和現金流。

The result was positive with significant improvement in each of these areas.

結果是積極的，每個領域都有顯著改善。

We reduced inventories by $86 million or 14%.

我們的庫存減少了 8600 萬美元，即 14%。

In fact, in fiscal '02, we eliminated also $120 million at retail value of inventory float, which was common in the Americas.

事實上，在 02 財年，我們還消除了 1.2 億美元的庫存流動零售價值，這在美洲很常見。

Our cash flow from operations grew 70% or over $200 million to $518 million for the year.

今年我們的運營現金流增長了 70%，即超過 2 億美元，達到 5.18 億美元。

Additionally to enhance our future profits, we have identified issues in unproductive businesses and eliminated areas that were uncertain to future earnings potential.

此外，為了提高我們的未來利潤，我們還發現了非生產性業務中的問題，並消除了對未來盈利潛力不確定的領域。

As a result, we took a restructuring charge in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們在第四季度承擔了重組費用。

The result will be availability of funds to grow the business and achieve our goal of double-digit earnings growth.

其結果將是獲得資金來發展業務並實現我們兩位數盈利增長的目標。

Let's look at fiscal '02 growth and how it was achieved.

讓我們看看 02 財年的增長以及它是如何實現的。

First and foremost, we remained committed to leadership and product innovation, launching hundreds of new products in fiscal 2002 that helped drive each of our product categories.

首先也是最重要的是，我們仍然致力於領導力和產品創新，在 2002 財年推出了數百種新產品，幫助推動了我們每個產品類別的發展。

Additionally, we fully supported our brands and our new product launches with effective advertising, sampling, gift initiatives, and in-store events to create excitement at the point of sale, obviously, declining traffic generally in shopping malls and retail environment across the world.

此外，我們通過有效的廣告、樣品、禮品計劃和店內活動全力支持我們的品牌和新產品發布，以在銷售點創造興奮感，顯然，全球購物中心和零售環境的客流量普遍下降。

Second, our international business excluding the travel retail, was strong.

其次，我們的國際業務（不包括旅遊零售）表現強勁。

With Europe and Asia regions each growing 9% in cost and currency, which is outstanding because we had strong growth the year prior as well.

歐洲和亞洲地區的成本和貨幣均增長了 9%，這一點非常出色，因為我們前一年也實現了強勁增長。

Third, we continue to expand our newer brands internationally.

第三，我們繼續在國際上拓展新品牌。

Since June of 2001, origins is now available in seven new countries, Bobbi Brown and Stila in six, Aveda in three, M.A.C. and La Mer in two.

自 2001 年 6 月起，Origins 現已在 7 個新國家上市，Bobbi Brown 和 Stila 在 6 個國家上市，Aveda 在 3 個國家上市，M.A.C.和 La Mer 一分為二。

Lastly, we referred to our retail storage strategy by adding new stores for origins of Aveda and M.A.C. are more moderate pace, because as you know we're now over 400 in retail stores in the stated goal.

最後，我們提到了我們的零售存儲策略，為 Aveda 和 M.A.C. 的原產地增加了新商店。步伐更為溫和，因為如您所知，我們現在已達到既定目標的零售店數量超過 400 家。

The outside of the strategy was about 500.

策略的外部大約是500。

Aveda has also opened an institute in London setting the stage for continued international growth by training emerging stylists in the Aveda philosophy.

Aveda 還在倫敦開設了一家學院，通過對新興造型師進行 Aveda 理念培訓，為持續的國際發展奠定了基礎。

We invested behind the strategies that have grown this company in the past and will help us grow in the future.

我們投資的戰略使這家公司在過去發展壯大，並將幫助我們在未來發展。

While these costs on short term, it's the right decision for the long term and for creating shareholder value.

雖然這些成本是短期的，但從長遠來看，這對於創造股東價值來說是正確的決定。

The combination of challenges I described resulted in unusual performance for the Estee companies with net earnings before accounting change and restructuring charges decreasing by 17% over the year.

我所描述的挑戰組合在一起，導緻雅詩蘭公司表現異常出色，會計變更和重組費用前的淨利潤同比下降了 17%。

I believe this is the first time in about 15 years we had a full year earnings decline.

我相信這是大約 15 年來我們首次出現全年盈利下降。

On a product category basis, makeup at a 5% increase in local occurrencey and report of makeup sales grew 4% to $1.79 billion this year.

從產品類別來看，化妝品在當地的出現率增長了 5%，今年化妝品銷售額增長了 4%，達到 17.9 億美元。

This increase was led by exceptional worldwide growth from M.A.C., Bobbi Brown, and Stila, due to growth at existing doors and increased distribution.

這一增長是由 M.A.C.、Bobbi Brown 和 Stila 的全球非凡增長帶動的，這得益於現有門店的增長和分銷的增加。

On the new product front, Clinique launch, and Estee Lauder brand revitalizes lineup with a launce of Intuition Mascara, a major success and the introduction of the U.S. of its successful pure color makeup.

在新產品方面，倩碧推出，雅詩蘭黛品牌重振產品線，推出直覺睫毛膏，取得重大成功，並將其成功的純色彩妝引入美國。

Skin care sales increased 4% in constant dollar currency, and on a reported basis, grew 3% to $1.7 billion.

按固定美元匯率計算，護膚品銷售額增長了 4%，根據報告，銷售額增長了 3%，達到 17 億美元。

Clinique expanded two key franchises launching total turnaround, Estee Lauder introduced lights and expanded its popular advanced night repair line with eye recovery complex.

倩碧 (Clinique) 擴大了兩個主要特許經營權，實現了全面轉型；雅詩蘭黛 (Estee Lauder) 推出了亮膚產品，並通過眼部修復複合物擴展了其廣受歡迎的高級夜間修護系列。

And our agents launched A Perfect World, a very successful line, the face and body products with white teeth.

我們的代理商推出了A Perfect World，一個非常成功的系列，具有潔白牙齒的面部和身體產品。

As you know, fragrance had a very difficult year.

如您所知，香水行業度過了非常艱難的一年。

In fact, from an industry standpoint, I believe this has been the worst fragrance year in a decade.

事實上，從行業的角度來看，我認為這是十年來香水最糟糕的一年。

Our fragrance sale fell 6% excluding currency compilation and dropped 6% to $1.02 billion on a reported basis.

不計貨幣編制，我們的香水銷售額下降了 6%，據報告，銷售額下降 6% 至 10.2 億美元。

For most of the year, this category was directly effected by the U.S. economic slowdown and the short fall in travel retail, which is substantially fragrance driven.

今年大部分時間，該類別直接受到美國經濟放緩和旅遊零售業短暫下滑的影響，而旅遊零售業主要由香水驅動。

Bright spots for the category for the year with the launch of Tommy T, Intuition for Men, and Kate Spade, and a strong sales growth in Donna Karan cashmere.

Tommy T、Intuition for Men 和 Kate Spade 的推出，以及 Donna Karan 羊絨的強勁銷售增長，是今年該品類的亮點。

The category continued its terrific growth, this year rising 19% to $215.8 million.

該類別繼續保持驚人的增長勢頭，今年增長了 19%，達到 2.158 億美元。

This strong double digit growth came primarily from the outstanding performance of Aveda and Bumble and Bumble, which continued to expand the product lines in the additional retail sale and stores distribution.

這種強勁的兩位數增長主要來自Aveda和Bumble and Bumble的出色表現，它們在額外零售和門店分銷方面不斷擴大產品線。

I am very pleased with the progress both of those brands have made to build awareness and develop new products.

我對這兩個品牌在提高知名度和開發新產品方面取得的進展感到非常高興。

On a geographic basis, our international business remains strong in fiscal 2002.

從地域上看，我們的國際業務在 2002 財年依然強勁。

Offsetting the decline in travel retail and the sluggish U.S. business.

抵消了旅遊零售業的下滑和美國業務的低迷。

I'm pleased with our international performance considering we are up against double-digit local currency growth comparisons from last year.

考慮到我們與去年相比兩位數的當地貨幣增長，我對我們的國際表現感到滿意。

In the Americas region, the sales increased 1% in the prior year to $2.88 billion.

在美洲地區，銷售額較上年增長 1%，達到 28.8 億美元。

While it's a modest increase, it's reflective of the improvement we have seen in the region over the past two quarters; however, we continue to be prudent.

雖然增長幅度不大，但它反映了我們在過去兩個季度中看到的該地區的改善；然而，我們仍然保持謹慎態度。

Store traffic continues to be soft as consumers forego discretionary purchases.

由於消費者放棄隨意購買，商店客流量持續疲軟。

Later in the year, we increased spending behind advertising sampling and in the store to drive business.

今年晚些時候，我們增加了廣告抽樣和商店的支出以推動業務。

This is a tactic the company employs to build momentum and support of our brands and be opportunistic at a time like this to gain market share.

這是公司為增強品牌動力和支持而採取的策略，並在這樣的時刻抓住機會以獲得市場份額。

On top of the marketing and communications benefits, we have achieved with our initiatives, we saw double digit sales growth in that business.

除了通過我們的舉措取得的營銷和傳播效益之外，我們還看到該業務的銷售額實現了兩位數的增長。

In Europe, and the Middle East, and Africa, net sales increased 3% over last year on a local currency basis, excluding short fall in travel retail, local currency sales increased an outstanding 9%.

在歐洲、中東和非洲，以當地貨幣計算的淨銷售額比去年增長了 3%，排除旅遊零售的短幅下滑，以當地貨幣計算的銷售額大幅增長了 9%。

Our travel retail business suffering from the reduction in worldwide travel was down 14% for the year; however, we have seen improvement in this business since the drop of 40% in the December quarter.

受全球旅行減少影響，我們的旅遊零售業務全年下降 14%；然而，自 12 月所在季度下降 40% 以來，我們看到該業務有所改善。

Passengers traffic continues to be below 2001, with few exceptions.

客運量繼續低於 2001 年水平，幾乎沒有例外。

We have some reassuring indications of increase in travel from Europe and Asia Pacific, but the Americas is still struggling.

我們有一些令人放心的跡象表明來自歐洲和亞太地區的遊客數量有所增加，但美洲仍在苦苦掙扎。

Again, this year we had a very strong performance at the affiliate level, particularly in the UK, Spain, South Africa.

今年我們在聯盟層面再次取得了非常強勁的表現，特別是在英國、西班牙和南非。

As well as Italy.

還有意大利。

Our new affiliate in Greece contributed strongly in sales.

我們在希臘的新子公司對銷售做出了巨大貢獻。

On a reportive basis, sales increased 3% to $1.26 billion.

根據報告，銷售額增長 3%，達到 12.6 億美元。

Unfortunately, we gave up 6 percentage points in growth, due to the currency in Europe.

不幸的是，由於歐洲貨幣的原因，我們放棄了 6 個百分點的增長。

That wraps up fiscal 2002.

2002 財年就這樣結束了。

Let's get back to the Asia Pacific area.

讓我們回到亞太地區。

Asia pacific saw an impressive 9% growth over the prior year on a local currency basis.

按當地貨幣計算，亞太地區比上一年增長了 9%，令人印象深刻。

Sales were up in most markets with the exceptional increase in Australia, Korea, and Thailand.

大多數市場的銷售額均有所增長，其中澳大利亞、韓國和泰國的銷售額增長尤為突出。

However, sales in Japan in local currency ended the year with a slight decline.

然而，以當地貨幣計算的日本銷售額在年底略有下降。

In this region the Yen remained weak until the end of the fiscal year, contributing us to giving back 7% points in growing currency fiscal 2002.

在該地區，日元一直疲軟直至本財政年度結束，這使我們在 2002 財政年度的貨幣增長中回吐了 7%。

On a reportive basis Asia Pacific net sales increased 2% to $610.6 million.

根據報告，亞太地區淨銷售額增長 2%，達到 6.106 億美元。

That wraps up the fiscal 2002.

2002 財年就這樣結束了。

Let's now look ahead.

現在讓我們展望未來。

Going forward, we expect to continue tower growth pattern for sales and we're committed to achieving our earnings growth for fiscal 2003.

展望未來，我們預計銷售將繼續保持塔式增長模式，並致力於實現 2003 財年的盈利增長。

Overall, we expect to see an acceleration in sales growth in fiscal '03 of between 5 and 6% in cost and currency.

總體而言，我們預計 03 財年的銷售增長將以成本和貨幣計算加速 5% 至 6%。

Our focus will not only be on sales, but also productivity gains in all operating units and continue to remove costs from our supply chain which will generate gross margin improvements.

我們的重點不僅是銷售，而且是所有運營部門生產力的提高，並繼續降低供應鏈的成本，從而提高毛利率。

With this combination we expect to establish renewed growth and earnings and the estimate for 2003 diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.28 to $1.33.

通過這種合併，我們預計將實現新的增長和收益，並預計 2003 年攤薄後每股收益將在 1.28 美元至 1.33 美元之間。

Our forecast is based on the four underlying assumptions: The U.S. economy and consumer spending will gradually recover through the year.

我們的預測基於四個基本假設：美國經濟和消費者支出將在今年逐步復甦。

Sale ends should sell through with little or no flow between them.

銷售端應該售完，並且它們之間的流量很少或沒有。

We don't expect to see the inventory squeeze we saw in fiscal '02, but we don't expect to see an increase in inventory at the store level either.

我們預計不會出現 02 財年的庫存緊張情況，但我們也預計商店層面的庫存不會增加。

Travel retail will continue to recover with particular favorable comparisons in the second fiscal quarter.

旅遊零售將繼續復甦，第二財季的比較尤其有利。

Should the dollar remain weak, we will have a positive currency translation effect.

如果美元持續疲軟，我們將產生積極的貨幣兌換效應。

In addition to these macroissues, we will continue to pursue the strategies that have historically driven growth.

除了這些宏觀問題外，我們還將繼續奉行歷史上推動增長的戰略。

Product innovation throughout all of our product categories and brands with particular emphasis in three areas: Leveraging key technologies across brands to maximize return, building and utilizing the bank of pretested products for faster speed to market, renewed emphasis on development of market-specific products, utilizing our international product development facilities, on the distribution front, our emphasis will be to strengthen the position of our newer brands and current geographic markets through expanded distribution.

我們所有產品類別和品牌的產品創新，特別強調三個領域：利用跨品牌的關鍵技術來最大化回報，建立和利用預先測試的產品庫以加快上市速度，重新重視市場特定產品的開發，利用我們的國際產品開發設施，在分銷方面，我們的重點將是通過擴大分銷來加強我們新品牌和當前地理市場的地位。

Focus marketing and public relations efforts.

重點關注營銷和公共關係工作。

Our internet strategy continues to evolve and will begin to bear fruit in the near future.

我們的互聯網戰略不斷發展，並將在不久的將來開始結出碩果。

The recent outsourcing of technological aspects of the strategy will allow our on-line division to have a near neutral impact on earnings in fiscal 03 and be accretive to earnings thereafter.

最近該戰略的技術方面的外包將使我們的在線部門對 03 財年的收益產生近乎中性的影響，並增加此後的收益。

Our retail store strategy for Aveda origins and M.A.C. will continue at a moderate pace.

我們針對 Aveda Origins 和 M.A.C. 的零售店策略將繼續以溫和的速度進行。

Geographically, we expect each region to contribute to growth and each region to improve profitability.

從地域上來看，我們預計每個地區都將為增長做出貢獻，每個地區都將提高盈利能力。

Also, geographically, we're finally experiencing a turn in foreign currency exchange rates that will be positive to our reported sales and earnings.

此外，從地理上看，我們終於經歷了外幣匯率的轉變，這將對我們報告的銷售和收益產生積極影響。

It's been a long time coming.

已經很久了。

The Europe, Middle East and Africa regions is expected to lead growth as our affiliated markets continue their momentum albeit at a lower pace and travel retail recovers throughout the year.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區預計將引領增長，因為我們的附屬市場將繼續保持增長勢頭，儘管增速較慢，而且旅遊零售全年將復蘇。

In the markets, we expect to build on those positions while in the other markets, we will proactively build stronger positions.

在市場上，我們預計將鞏固這些地位，而在其他市場上，我們將積極建立更強大的地位。

We believe that there is a lot of opportunity in Europe to grow, especially in the Southern Europe and in the UK.

我們相信歐洲有很多增長機會，特別是在南歐和英國。

In the Americas region, we expect to improve sales momentum, particularly in the second half, as we expect consumer spending to gradually pick up.

在美洲地區，我們預計銷售勢頭將會改善，特別是在下半年，因為我們預計消費者支出將逐漸回升。

Most new brands continued with double-digit growth, and all of our brands focus on new products and marketing efforts.

大多數新品牌繼續保持兩位數的增長，我們所有的品牌都專注於新產品和營銷工作。

The Estee Lauder brands revitalization is progressing nicely, and we expect the brand to return to solid growth in fiscal '03 and market share.

雅詩蘭黛品牌復興進展順利，我們預計該品牌將在 03 財年和市場份額上恢復穩健增長。

The Asia Pacific region is expected to deliver solid growth this year, with markets like Korea continuing at the strong pace, we anticipate Japan, will come back a bit this year and forecast the growth there.

預計亞太地區今年將實現穩健增長，韓國等市場將繼續保持強勁增長勢頭，我們預計日本今年將有所回升並預測該地區的增長。

Japan is still a vital market, and we will continue to be market leaders in the doors we do business in.

日本仍然是一個重要的市場，我們將繼續成為我們開展業務的市場領導者。

Our company has been built around product innovation, and we are leaders in makeup, skin care, and fragrance rapidly developing the hair care categories, the fourth growth driver.

我們公司以產品創新為基礎，在彩妝、護膚和香水領域處於領先地位，並迅速發展護髮品類，這是第四個增長動力。

Fiscal '03 will be no exception when it comes to the product lineup.

就產品陣容而言，03 財年也不例外。

Hair care will once again lead the categories in growth off a smaller base, and Aveda and Bumble and Bumble will remain the main drivers behind that growth.

護髮產品將再次在較小的基礎上引領增長類別，而 Aveda 和 Bumble and Bumble 仍將是這一增長的主要推動力。

These brands will continue the strategic development that has proven successful for them so far and draw on the opportunities in the global hair care arena.

這些品牌將繼續其迄今為止已被證明成功的戰略發展，並利用全球護髮領域的機遇。

In makeup, we expect to see solid sales growth as we pursue opportunities in every subcategory.

在化妝品領域，隨著我們在每個子類別中尋求機會，我們預計銷售額將實現穩健增長。

Clinique is launching a number of new makeup products this quarter, including gentle, light, pressed powder and dewey smooth makeup.

倩碧本季度推出多款彩妝新品，包括溫和、輕盈、粉餅和杜威柔妝等。

In the current quarter, the Estee Lauder brand is building on its foundation with so ingenious liquid foundation and loose powder.

在本季度，雅詩蘭黛品牌正在以如此巧妙的粉底液和散粉打造其基礎。

It will also build the successful pure color franchise with a number of new products.

它還將通過一系列新產品建立成功的純色特許經營權。

Aside from the big brands we expect another terrific year growth from the makeup artist growth brands, particularly M.A.C.

除了大品牌之外，我們預計化妝師成長品牌，尤其是 M.A.C. 將在今年再次實現驚人的增長。

In skin care, expected to grow almost as fast as makeup, we also have a great lineup.

在預計增長速度幾乎與彩妝一樣快的護膚品領域，我們也擁有強大的產品陣容。

To name a few, Clinique starts the year with the launch of advanced stop sign serum, Estee Lauder is launching resilliance for night, and a different skin rejuvenating treatment.

僅舉幾例，倩碧在新年伊始推出了先進的停止標誌精華液，雅詩蘭黛則推出了晚間彈性精華，以及不同的皮膚再生護理。

In fragrance, we expect Lauder Intuition for Men which we launched in June to continue this popular reception in the Estee Lauder building on the strong and the Estee Lauder brand will be build on this strong pleasure franchise.

在香水方面，我們預計 6 月份推出的 Lauder Intuition for Men 能夠在雅詩蘭黛的強大基礎上繼續受到人們的歡迎，而雅詩蘭黛品牌也將建立在這種強大的愉悅專營權的基礎上。

With the launch of Pleasure Intense in the first quarter.

隨著第一季度 Pleasure Intense 的推出。

We'll launch T Girl by Tommy Hilfiger in the current quarter and Donna Karan Cashmere a new edition called Black Cashmere.

我們將在本季度推出 Tommy Hilfiger 的 T Girl 和 Donna Karan Cashmere 的新版本，名為 Black Cashmere。

Product innovation and newness is one growth driver of the company, particularly when supported by strong advertising and promotion.

產品創新和新穎是公司的增長動力之一，特別是在強有力的廣告和促銷的支持下。

We will continue to invest in our product innovation to drive sales momentum, particularly in this climate where we can gain market share opportunistically.

我們將繼續投資於產品創新，以推動銷售勢頭，特別是在這種我們可以抓住機會獲得市場份額的環境下。

Fiscal '03 will be no different.

03 財年也不例外。

This keeps our brand equity strong benefitting for the long-term health for our business.

這使我們的品牌資產保持強勁，有利於我們業務的長期健康發展。

Our core brand spends the most, Estee Lauder introduced more products and command a higher level of marketing support.

我們的核心品牌花費最多，雅詩蘭黛推出了更多的產品並獲得了更高水平的營銷支持。

For example, the new Estee Lauder brand ads campaign introduced in the beginning of this calendar year has been successful and we'll continue to support it.

例如，今年年初推出的新雅詩蘭黛品牌廣告活動取得了成功，我們將繼續支持它。

Advertising and promotion as well as certain fixed costs such as beauty adviser, selling expenses are essential to business building.

廣告和促銷以及某些固定成本（例如美容顧問、銷售費用）對於業務建設至關重要。

But are, nevertheless, continuously reviewed to ensure the most effective spending and productivity gains.

但儘管如此，我們仍會不斷進行審查，以確保最有效的支出和生產率的提高。

Other expenses with our cost structure that don't touch the consumer, expense growth will be held below sales growth, which will result in increase of productivity.

我們的成本結構中不涉及消費者的其他費用，費用增長將低於銷售增長，這將導致生產率的提高。

These strategies are being pursued with vigor and will will help us achieve our long term margin objectives.

這些戰略正在大力實施，將幫助我們實現長期利潤目標。

In addition, our supply chain initiatives have successfully created efficiencies resulting in cost savings, and there will be more to come.

此外，我們的供應鏈計劃已成功提高效率，從而節省成本，而且還會有更多的舉措。

We will host an analyst meeting here in New York on September 17th to discuss our future growth prospects and the drivers behind it in more detail.

我們將於 9 月 17 日在紐約舉辦分析師會議，更詳細地討論我們未來的增長前景及其背後的驅動因素。

We hope you will have a chance to join us then.

我們希望屆時您有機會加入我們。

Either in person or via web cast.

親自或通過網絡直播。

To summarize, we have a lot of work ahead of us, but we have a lot of talented people in our organization that share the commitment in growing our company.

總而言之，我們還有很多工作要做，但我們組織中有很多才華橫溢的人，他們共同致力於發展我們的公司。

We will driving for growth while at the same time aligning our cost structure to achieve our financial objectives.

我們將推動增長，同時調整成本結構以實現我們的財務目標。

As I said earlier, we believe that local currency sales growth of 5 to 6% combined with cost savings initiatives should enable us to deliver EPS in the range of 128 to $133 for fiscal '03.

正如我之前所說，我們相信，以當地貨幣計算的銷售額增長 5% 至 6%，再加上成本節約舉措，我們應該能夠在 03 財年實現每股收益 128 至 133 美元。

This is our best estimate at this time and will continue to update you as the year unfolds.

這是我們目前的最佳估計，並將隨著今年的進展繼續向您更新。

Now, I would like to hand you over to Richard Kunes our Chief Financial Officer to take you through our financial details.

現在，我想將您交給我們的首席財務官 Richard Kunes，讓您了解我們的財務詳細信息。

Thank you, Fred, and good morning everyone.

謝謝你，弗雷德，大家早上好。

Let me remind you my discussion is also before any restructuring charges.

讓我提醒您，我的討論也是在任何重組費用之前進行的。

Let me first give you a few fourth quarter highlights.

首先讓我給大家介紹一下第四季度的一些亮點。

For the fourth quarter, the company sales increased 7% excluding foreign currency translation.

不計外幣換算，第四季度公司銷售額增長 7%。

As the dollar weakened, the impact of foreign currency exchange rates turned slightly positive, and in U.S. dollars, net sales were $1.3 billion, rising 8% over the $1.05 billion in the prior year quarter.

隨著美元走軟，外匯匯率的影響略有轉正，以美元計算，淨銷售額為 13 億美元，比去年同期的 10.5 億美元增長 8%。

Looking at the fourth quarter sales by-product category, makeup posted the highest percentage increase, growing 13% to $442 million.

從第四季度銷售副產品類別來看，化妝品的增幅最高，增長 13%，達到 4.42 億美元。

Hair care sales rose 11% to $57.8 million, while skin care increased 4% to $424 million.

護髮產品銷售額增長 11%，達到 5,780 萬美元，護膚品銷售額增長 4%，達到 4.24 億美元。

As anticipated, fragrance sales turned around this quarter increasing 5% to $205 million due to the current quarter launch of Intuition for Men and Kate Spade and strong sales of T. by Tommy Hilfiger and Estee Lauder pleasures.

正如預期的那樣，由於本季度推出了 Intuition for Men 和 Kate Spade，以及 T. by Tommy Hilfiger 和 Estee Lauder pleasures 的強勁銷售，本季度香水銷售額增長了 5%，達到 2.05 億美元。

On a regional basis, the Americas region posted a net sales increase of 9% in the fourth quarter to $660 million.

從地區來看，美洲地區第四季度淨銷售額增長 9%，達到 6.6 億美元。

The strong result benefited from the step-up in advertising and promotional spending in the quarter that Fred spoke about earlier.

強勁的業績得益於弗雷德早些時候談到的本季度廣告和促銷支出的增加。

In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, sales growth and local currency increase said 4%.

在歐洲、中東和非洲，銷售額增長（按當地貨幣計算）增長了 4%。

This is coming off a 17% increase in last year's fourth quarter.

去年第四季度增長了 17%。

Sales on a liquidity basis rose 7% to $327.7 million, reflecting the positive impact of exchange rates.

基於流動性的銷售額增長 7%，達到 3.277 億美元，反映了匯率的積極影響。

In Asia Pacific, sales on a local currency basis for the quarter rose 4%, while on a reported basis, sales also increased 4% to $147.5 million.

在亞太地區，本季度以當地貨幣計算的銷售額增長了 4%，而根據報告的數據，銷售額也增長了 4%，達到 1.475 億美元。

Turning to operating profitability for the new fiscal year, the company achieved operating income of $458.8 million, versus the $558.6 million reported last year.

談到新財年的營業利潤，該公司實現營業收入 4.588 億美元，而去年報告的營業收入為 5.586 億美元。

This reflects a decline in operating margin of approximately 2 percentage points to 9.7%, due to the lower gross margin and a strategic increase in operating expenses.

這反映出由於毛利率下降和運營費用的戰略性增加，運營利潤率下降了約2個百分點至9.7%。

Our gross margin of 73.2% for the fiscal year decreased 60 basis points versus last year's 73.8%.

本財年我們的毛利率為 73.2%，比去年的 73.8% 下降了 60 個基點。

Driven primarily by three factors, two of which are related to our efforts to reduce inventory.

主要由三個因素驅動，其中兩個與我們減少庫存的努力有關。

They were lower production levels and associated overhead absorption, lower than anticipated savings for more material purchases and an increase in promotional activity versus the prior year.

與上一年相比，生產水平和相關管理費用吸收較低，採購更多材料所節省的成本以及促銷活動增加的成本低於預期。

This was partially offset by the ongoing benefit of our supply chain initiatives and chain and distribution product mix.

我們的供應鏈計劃以及連鎖和分銷產品組合的持續效益部分抵消了這一影響。

As we mentioned on last quarter's call, as of January 1st, we adopted a new accounting regulation.

正如我們在上個季度的電話會議中提到的，自 1 月 1 日起，我們採用了新的會計法規。

The ITF 01-9, which relates to the classification of promotional expenses and related revenues.

ITF 01-9，涉及促銷費用和相關收入的分類。

This rule has been applied retroactively for comparability for all periods presented in our financial statements.

該規則已追溯適用，以便我們財務報表中列出的所有期間具有可比性。

There is no impact on the value of reported operating income, however, there will be greater volatility in gross margin and operating expenses on a quarterly basis due to the timing of our promotional calendar.

這對報告的營業收入沒有影響，但是，由於我們促銷日曆的時間安排，每季度的毛利率和營業費用將會出現更大的波動。

Operating expenses as a percentage of sales increased 170 basis points to 63.5% reflecting ongoing investment in new distribution channels and sales generating slightly of a soft retail environment.

運營費用佔銷售額的百分比增加了 170 個基點，達到 63.5%，反映出對新分銷渠道的持續投資以及零售環境略顯疲軟的銷售額。

For the fiscal year, total advertising and promotional spending including the amounts reflected in both cost of sales and operating expenses were $1.33 billion, or 28% of sales, compares to $1.26 billion or 26.9 as a percent of sales last fiscal year.

本財年，包括銷售成本和運營費用在內的廣告和促銷支出總額為 13.3 億美元，佔銷售額的 28%，而上一財年為 12.6 億美元，佔銷售額的 26.9%。

As we said and have done in the past, we continue our commitment to support our top line growth and enhance brand equity irrespective of current economic conditions.

正如我們過去所說和所做的那樣，無論當前的經濟狀況如何，我們都將繼續致力於支持我們的收入增長並增強品牌資產。

Looking at operating profits for the category for the full fiscal year, skin care decreased $18.5 million to $248.4 million, and makeup profits declined to $29.3 million to $183.2 million, reflecting lower than anticipated sales and continued advertising and promotional spending to promote new and recently launched products.

從整個財年該類別的營業利潤來看，護膚品減少了 1850 萬美元，至 2.484 億美元，化妝品利潤下降至 2930 萬美元，至 1.832 億美元，反映出低於預期的銷售額以及為推廣新產品和最近推出的產品而持續進行的廣告和促銷支出。

Fragrance operating income decreased $50.2 million to $13.4 million due to lower sales, especially high-profit travel retail sales, and increased products for its spending.

由於銷售額下降（尤其是高利潤的旅遊零售銷售額）以及支出產品的增加，香水營業收入減少了 5020 萬美元，至 1340 萬美元。

Hair care increased $600,000 to $13.7 million, and sales were offset by increased costs associated with increased distribution.

護髮產品增加了 60 萬美元，達到 1,370 萬美元，銷售額被分銷增加帶來的成本增加所抵消。

Turning to operating profits by region, the Americas decreased $77 million to $222.9 million.

至於按地區劃分的營業利潤，美洲地區減少了 7700 萬美元，至 2.229 億美元。

The decrease was primarily due to soft sales and continued investment spending behind our brands for future growth.

下降的主要原因是銷售疲軟以及我們品牌背後為未來增長而持續進行的投資支出。

In the Middle East and Africa and Europe, operating income in fiscal 2002 declined $21.9 million to $179.9 million versus last year, due in part to the lower results from our travel retail business.

在中東、非洲和歐洲，2002 財年的營業收入比去年下降了 2190 萬美元，降至 1.799 億美元，部分原因是我們的旅遊零售業務業績下降。

Partially offsetting these results was strong growth in several markets led by the UK, Greece, Germany and Italy.

以英國、希臘、德國和意大利為首的幾個市場的強勁增長部分抵消了這些結果。

Asia Pacific operating income decreased $900,000 to $56 million due to low operating income in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

由於中國、香港和新加坡的營業收入較低，亞太地區的營業收入減少了 90 萬美元，至 5,600 萬美元。

In Japan, lower operating expenses led to a moderate increase in operating income this year.

在日本，營業費用下降導致今年營業收入小幅增長。

Australia, Korea and Taiwan reported strong operating income increases.

澳大利亞、韓國和台灣的營業收入強勁增長。

Regarding our interest clause, we reported net interest expense of $9.8 million this year, versus $12.3 million last year.

關於我們的利息條款，我們報告今年的淨利息支出為 980 萬美元，而去年為 1,230 萬美元。

The decrease result from a lower effective interest rate, primarily due to interest rate risk management relying on commercial paper and variable rate term loans.

下降的原因是實際利率較低，主要是由於依賴商業票據和浮動利率定期貸款的利率風險管理。

In January 2002, the company exchanged variable rate debt to fixed rate debt.

2002年1月，公司將浮動利率債務轉換為固定利率債務。

This debt issuance bears long term benefits to the company that will increase interest expense in the near term.

本次發債對公司具有長期利益，但短期內利息支出將增加。

The effective income tax rate for the year was 34.5%, versus 36% in the prior year.

本年度實際所得稅率為 34.5%，上年為 36%。

The improvement was primarily due to implementing tax planning initiatives, including a focus on state and local tax savings and benefits and from the elimination of some nontax deductible expenses.

這一改善主要歸功於實施稅收籌劃舉措，包括關注州和地方稅收節省和福利，以及取消一些不可抵稅費用。

Net earnings for the fourth quarter were $51.5 million, compared to $60.7 million in the prior year.

第四季度淨利潤為 5150 萬美元，上年同期為 6070 萬美元。

Diluted earnings per share for the quarter declined to 19 cents from 23 cents in the prior year quarter.

本季度稀釋後每股收益從去年同期的 23 美分下降至 19 美分。

For the fiscal year, net earnings were $289.4 million dollars, compared to $347.7 million in the procedure year.

本財年淨利潤為 2.894 億美元，而上一財年淨利潤為 3.477 億美元。

Diluted earnings per share for the year declined to $1.10 from $1.34 in the prior year.

本年度稀釋後每股收益從上一年的 1.34 美元下降至 1.10 美元。

Let me briefly discuss the one-time items we recorded this year.

讓我簡單討論一下我們今年錄製的一次性項目。

During the year, we adopted an accounting regulation pertaining to goodwill and other intangible assets resulting in a noncash charge of $20.6 million.

年內，我們採用了有關商譽和其他無形資產的會計規定，產生了 2,060 萬美元的非現金費用。

As discussed with you in April, during the fourth quarter, we reported a $117.4 million pretax charge for restructuring of certain operations.

正如 4 月份與您討論的那樣，在第四季度，我們報告了 1.174 億美元的稅前重組某些業務的費用。

The initiatives focused on several areas including the internet, supply chain, globalization and distribution.

這些舉措重點關注互聯網、供應鏈、全球化和分銷等多個領域。

The charge was $76.9 million after-tax equal to 32 cents per diluted share.

該費用為稅後 7690 萬美元，相當於稀釋後每股 32 美分。

Approximately 60 million of the charges are cash related, which is expected to save about $46 million annually as the initiatives are fully implemented.

其中約 6,000 萬筆費用與現金相關，隨著這些舉措的全面實施，預計每年可節省約 4,600 萬美元。

Turn towards our financial position, the company's cash position was $547 million at June 30th, 2002, an increase of over $200 million versus last year.

就我們的財務狀況而言，截至 2002 年 6 月 30 日，公司的現金狀況為 5.47 億美元，比去年增加了 2 億多美元。

For the year, we generated net cash from operating activities of $518 million versus $305 million in the prior year.

今年，我們的經營活動產生的淨現金為 5.18 億美元，而上一年為 3.05 億美元。

The cash flow increase was primarily driven by an unusually large decrease in inventories, coupled with higher accrued liabilities due in part to our restructuring initiative.

現金流量的增加主要是由於庫存異常大幅減少，以及部分由於我們的重組舉措而導致的應計負債增加。

You will recall last year our net cash from operations was lower than expected due it a much higher inventory level at year end.

您會記得去年我們的運營淨現金低於預期，因為年底的庫存水平要高得多。

They offset each other to some extent, and next year we anticipate returning to a more normalized level.

它們在一定程度上相互抵消，明年我們預計會恢復到更加正常化的水平。

Funds were used for capital expenditure, payments, and a repurchase of 1.5 million shares of stock under our share repurchase program.

資金用於資本支出、付款以及根據我們的股票回購計劃回購 150 萬股股票。

Subsequent to June 30th, we repurchased an additional 1.9 million shares bringing the total shares repurchased to date under our program of 4.5 million.

6 月 30 日之後，我們又回購了 190 萬股，使迄今為止我們計劃回購的股份總數達到 450 萬股。

Funds for operation were used to make pension contributions totaling $43 million during fiscal '02.

2002 財年，運營資金用於繳納總計 4300 萬美元的養老金。

Maintaining a policy to meet or exceed the U.S. qualified benefit plans funded benefit ratios, the company has for several years made contributions in excess of the required annual minimum.

為了維持滿足或超過美國合格福利計劃資助福利比率的政策，該公司多年來的繳款額已超過所需的年度最低限額。

In the past year, we made contributions up to the maximum tax deductible amount and intend to do so again this year.

去年，我們的供款達到了最高可扣稅金額，並打算今年再次這樣做。

These contributions were readily funded through our strong cash flow and don't result in any incremental PNL charge.

這些捐款很容易通過我們強大的現金流提供資金，並且不會導致任何增量的損益費用。

Along with our actual advisers, we review on an ongoing basis the status of our benefit plans including their expense and funding to ensure we are at adequate levels within arista and GAAP requirements.

我們與我們的實際顧問一起持續審查我們的福利計劃的狀態，包括其費用和資金，以確保我們處於 Arista 和 GAAP 要求的適當水平。

We follow similar practices with respect to our non U.S. benefit plans within the framework of local regulatory requirement and business considerations.

我們在當地監管要求和業務考慮的框架內，對我們的非美國福利計劃遵循類似的做法。

We believe that any action we take regarding our pension plans will not be material to our results of operations or financial conditions.

我們相信，我們針對養老金計劃採取的任何行動都不會對我們的經營業績或財務狀況產生重大影響。

Now, let me briefly update you on inventories.

現在，讓我簡要介紹一下庫存情況。

At June 30th, 2002, inventories were $545 million, a decrease of $86 million versus June 30, 2001.

截至2002年6月30日，庫存為5.45億美元，比2001年6月30日減少8600萬美元。

You will recall our inventory was 126 million over last year at the end of this fiscal year's first quarter.

您還記得，截至本財年第一季度末，我們的庫存比去年增加了 1.26 億。

Despite the year of many abnormal events effecting ours and our retailer customer inventories, were able to reduce the inventories throughout the fiscal year.

儘管今年發生了許多影響我們和我們零售商客戶庫存的異常事件，但我們仍能夠減少整個財年的庫存。

At this point, our core inventory months cover improved versus last year which reflects our efforts to reduce our inventory balance.

目前，我們的核心庫存月份覆蓋率比去年有所改善，這反映了我們為減少庫存餘額所做的努力。

Regarding receivables, our receivable balance was $625 million.

在應收賬款方面，我們的應收賬款餘額為6.25億美元。

DSO's were virtually unchanged June 30th versus last year.

6 月 30 日的 DSO 與去年相比幾乎沒有變化。

We saw a slight increase in domestic DSO's compared to last year, which was offset by an improvement in international.

與去年相比，我們看到國內 DSO 略有增加，但被國際 DSO 的改善所抵消。

An important working capital measure we look at is net trade cycle, which combines DSOs and days inventory supply less days payable to measure how efficiently these working capital items are converted to cash.

我們關注的一個重要的營運資本指標是淨貿易週期，它結合了 DSO 和庫存供應天數減去應付天數，以衡量這些營運資本項目轉換為現金的效率。

A net trade cycle improved to 156 days at the end of June, versus 223 days last year.

6 月底淨貿易週期從去年的 223 天增至 156 天。

The debt to capital ratio improved to 18% June 20th, 2002, compared to 20% last year.

2002年6月20日，債務資本比率從去年的20%提高到18%。

Let me give you a few assumptions for fiscal 2003.

讓我對 2003 財年提出一些假設。

For the full fiscal year, we anticipate sales growth of 5 to 6% in local currency.

對於整個財年，我們預計以當地貨幣計算的銷售額將增長 5% 至 6%。

At forecasted rates, our reported sales would be positively impacted by foreign exchange by approximately 1 to 2 percentage point for the full fiscal year.

按照預測，整個財年我們報告的銷售額將受到外匯大約 1 到 2 個百分點的積極影響。

We expect gross margins to improve about 30 to 50 basis points for the coming fiscal year, benefiting from ongoing supply chain savings and the return to more normal production levels.

我們預計，受益於持續的供應鏈節約和恢復到更正常的生產水平，下一財年的毛利率將提高約 30 至 50 個基點。

We anticipate improvements in operating expenses of approximately 40 to 60 basis points reflecting sales growth, expense controls and the impact of the cost savings from the restructuring charge taken in fiscal '02.

我們預計運營費用將改善約 40 至 60 個基點，反映出銷售增長、費用控制以及 02 財年重組費用節省成本的影響。

Operating margin is estimated to increase 90 to 110 basis points.

營業利潤率預計將增加 90 至 110 個基點。

At this time, we expect our effective tax rate will be approximately 33.5% throughout fiscal 2003, resulting from our tax reduction initiatives, the mix of global earnings, and the expected favorable resolution of several pending tax reviews.

目前，我們預計 2003 財年的有效稅率約為 33.5%，這是由於我們的減稅舉措、全球收益的組合以及幾項懸而未決的稅務審查的預期有利解決方案而產生的。

We anticipate a slow recovery, particularly in the U.S., with acceleration in the latter part of the fiscal year.

我們預計復甦將緩慢，特別是在美國，但本財年下半年將加速復蘇。

In our first quarter, while dealing with the somewhat weaker retail environment that existed at year end, and a shift in timing of a portion of Christmas orders between the first and second quarters, we are also continuing to increase advertising and promotional spending to stimulate sales momentum ahead of the holidays.

在第一季度，我們在應對年底零售環境有所疲軟以及部分聖誕訂單時間在第一季度和第二季度之間發生變化的同時，還繼續增加廣告和促銷支出，以刺激假期前的銷售勢頭。

This combination will result in lower first quarter earnings compared with the prior year quarter.

這種組合將導致第一季度收益低於去年同期。

Having said that, we expect sales in this year's first quarter to grow between 2 and 3% in local currency and anticipate a positive impact of foreign currency exchange rates of between 1 and 2%.

話雖如此，我們預計今年第一季度以當地貨幣計算的銷售額將增長 2% 至 3%，並預計外幣匯率將產生 1% 至 2% 的積極影響。

Diluted earnings per share for the first quarter is expected in the range of 25 to 28 cents per share.

第一季度稀釋後每股收益預計在每股 25 至 28 美分之間。

As Fred mentioned, we will host an analyst meeting on September 17th here in New York, and we look forward to seeing many of you there.

正如 Fred 提到的，我們將於 9 月 17 日在紐約舉辦分析師會議，我們期待在那裡見到你們中的許多人。

That concludes my comments for today, and we'll be happy to take your questions now.

我今天的評論到此結束，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, the question-and-answer session will be conducted electronically today.

謝謝，今天的問答環節將以電子方式進行。

If you have a question you simply press the star key followed by the digit 1 on your touch tone telephone.

如果您有疑問，只需按按鍵式電話上的星號鍵，然後再按數字 1 即可。

To ensure everyone has an opportunity to ask their questions, we will limit each person to one question.

為了確保每個人都有機會提出問題，我們將限制每個人只提出一個問題。

To queue up again just press the star key and the digit one.

要再次排隊，只需按星號鍵和數字一。

Our first question today is from Jim Gingrich with Sanford Bernstein.

我們今天的第一個問題是吉姆·金里奇和桑福德·伯恩斯坦提出的。

Good morning.

早上好。

Maybe, Fred, you could walk us through here in -- in the June quarter the sales growth you got in the states, you know, because obviously we're looking at the same sorts of sales trends out of the department stores, some of the data coming out of MPD, all of which suggests the category's been up low singles, maybe you can kind of give us a sense is there where the Deltas are

弗雷德，也許你可以向我們介紹一下六月季度各州的銷售增長情況，你知道，因為顯然我們正在觀察百貨商店的相同銷售趨勢，一些來自 MPD 的數據，所有這些都表明該類別的單曲銷量一直較低，也許你可以讓我們了解三角洲地區的情況

Okay, let me give you a couple of comments on that one.

好的，讓我對此發表一些評論。

First of all, the numbers we have seen out there published in the marketplace are about half the growth from what we see in our own numbers in the department stores.

首先，我們在市場上看到的數字大約是我們在百貨商店看到的數字的一半。

They really reflect more on the larger brands and don't incorporate also some of the smaller brands we have and where we have our own retail stores.

它們確實更多地反映了較大的品牌，並且沒有包含我們擁有的一些較小的品牌以及我們擁有自己的零售店的地方。

Our -- our growth is different from what we see in the MPD data out there, I think that is a comment on this.

我們的增長與我們在 MPD 數據中看到的不同，我認為這是對此的評論。

I think more importantly, however, that is -- that, you know, if I look at, um, year over year we have, you know I explained in previous calls there, has been a traditional float between selling them through anywhere from a hundred to $150 million any given year.

然而，我認為更重要的是——你知道，如果我看一下，嗯，年復一年，你知道我在之前的電話會議中解釋過，每年出售它們的價格一直在 100 到 1.5 億美元之間。

That's sort of the normal pattern.

這是正常的模式。

And last year, that has, um, basically been eliminated.

去年，嗯，基本上已經消除了。

So if I look at the, let's say end of June inventory levels in the stores, um, compared to previous year, that float has been virtually eliminated, so I think that is a very positive as far as I can see, so what we're betting on for this coming year that fell in will approximately sell through.

因此，如果我看看六月底商店的庫存水平，嗯，與去年相比，浮動實際上已經被消除了，所以我認為據我所知，這是一個非常積極的結果，所以我們對來年的押注將大約售完。

Now, having said that, the first, um, the first six weeks here in July and August, um, the business has, in fact, not improved.

現在呢,話說回來,第一,嗯,七八月份的前六個星期,嗯,生意其實並沒有好轉。.

In fact, it has slowed down a little more compared to the last quarter of the year.

事實上，與今年最後一個季度相比，增速有所放緩。

So, that's the way it sort of looks at the U.S.

所以，這就是它看待美國的方式。

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，很公平。

Now, um, maybe you could also comment then -- because clearly the September number is below what most people anticipated in terms of earnings.

現在，嗯，也許你也可以發表評論——因為很明顯，9 月份的收入數字低於大多數人的預期。

Yeah.

是的。

You know, how much advertising promotion spending is going to be up year on year, and on, you know, is that really the major driver here in terms of the decrease in earnings year on year?

你知道，廣告促銷支出將同比增長多少，而且，這真的是收入同比下降的主要驅動因素嗎？

You know, here's what's happening.

你知道，這就是正在發生的事情。

A couple of things here.

這裡有幾件事。

First of all, we -- as you know, we have revitalized the Estee Lauder brand and obviously going into the Christmas season, there is no point in revitalizing the brand unless you put money behind it and send a new message out in the marketplace together with innovative product, we're increasing our spending there.

首先，正如你所知，我們已經振興了雅詩蘭黛品牌，顯然進入了聖誕節，振興該品牌是沒有意義的，除非你投入資金並與創新產品一起在市場上發出新的信息，我們正在增加在那裡的支出。

Having said that, however, at the same time, as you will recall, nobody knew about September 11th last year.

話雖如此，但與此同時，正如您所記得的那樣，去年沒有人知道 9 月 11 日。

All the retailers sort of, um, were eager to get their shipments in the first quarter, particularly Christmas to get them on the counter to get an early start.

所有零售商都渴望在第一季度（尤其是聖誕節）收到貨物，以便儘早上架。

This year, we have already, you know, been advised by retailers, they would prefer to take it later, like early part of October, so that the -- you really have to almost look at the first half versus the quarter because there are some of the shifts going on.

今年，你知道，零售商已經建議我們，他們更願意推遲，比如 10 月初，這樣，你真的必須看看上半年與季度的情況，因為正在發生一些變化。

So that is really the big issue in your view is you're seeing shipments that last year were shipped in September quarter shipped into the December quarter?

因此，您認為這確實是一個大問題，您是否看到去年 9 月季度發貨的貨物被運到 12 月季度？

That's part of it, and we're increasing spending by roughly -- between 35 and $40 million, that's on a corporate-wide basis.

這是其中的一部分，我們正在將整個公司的支出增加大約 35 至 4000 萬美元。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

We'll go next to Sally Dessloch with J.P.

我們將和 J.P. 一起去 Sally Dessloch 旁邊。

Morgan

摩根

Yes, good morning.

是的，早上好。

I guess I wanted to kind of pursue that line of questioning, if I could.

如果可以的話，我想我想繼續提出這樣的問題。

Looking at the guidance you have given for September and the estimates you're comfortable with for the year, could you help us to understand, you know, what the swing factors are and -- and, you know, what you're looking for in the Q-2 through Q-4 because based on my math, it looks like you would need to grow earnings by about 45% year over year to get to the range that you're looking for, and just to follow up on your commentary about the sales growth expected for September, it was my recollection that the September quarter last year did see some shifting out of product in late September, um, owing to September 11th and the comparisons actually kind of easy.

看看您對 9 月份給出的指導以及您對今年的估計，您能否幫助我們了解，您知道，波動因素是什麼，以及您在第二季度到第四季度中尋找的內容，因為根據我的數學計算，您需要將收入同比增長約 45% 才能達到您所尋找的範圍，並且只是跟進您對 9 月份預期銷售增長的評論，我記得去年 9 月份的季度今年確實在 9 月下旬看到了一些產品的轉移，嗯，由於 9 月 11 日，而且比較實際上很容易。

So I'm curious to know, what I'm missing there.

所以我很想知道我在那裡缺少什麼。

I think comparison's easy.

我認為比較很容易。

I think you will find the mood of retailers buying in inventory, um, in this climate is quite different than it was last year.

我想你會發現零售商購買庫存的情緒，嗯，在這種氣候下與去年有很大不同。

Without anybody knowing anything about September 11th, so there was business as usual.

沒有人知道 9 月 11 日是什麼日子，一切照常進行。

There was no aversion to float or anything like that, um, last year at this time of the year, so -- I think everybody's more prudent.

沒有人厭惡浮動或類似的事情，嗯，去年的這個時候，所以——我認為每個人都更加謹慎。

You can read the retail reports from across all levels of distribution in terms of retail.

您可以閱讀零售方面各個分銷級別的零售報告。

It's not exactly buoyancy on the retailer.

這並不完全是零售商的樂觀情緒。

If you look at their performance in terms of inventory management, it's been impressive over the last 12 months as well.

如果您觀察他們在庫存管理方面的表現，就會發現過去 12 個月的表現也令人印象深刻。

I think we're dealing with a different climate, you know, I have obviously looked at this very carefully because, you know, if you're -- if you're concerned about the first quarter earnings that you can imagine that we have -- dissected this thing upside and down and every level.

我認為我們正在應對不同的氣候，你知道，我顯然已經非常仔細地研究了這個問題，因為，你知道，如果你 - 如果你擔心你可以想像到的我們的第一季度收益 - 從各個層面上下剖析這件事。

Because the last thing we want to do is the last thing, quite frankly, you know I'm not used to having to revise numbers.

因為我們最不想做的事情就是最後一件事，坦率地說，你知道我不習慣修改數字。

As you know, um, last year we -- we revised numbers, you know, we have been a public company for six years, and that was the first experience last year in having to revise numbers, so we have gone through this with a tooth comb, and we're go basically comfortable.

正如你所知，嗯，去年我們修改了數字，你知道，我們已經成為一家上市公司六年了，這是去年第一次必須修改數字，所以我們已經用牙齒梳理過了這一點，我們基本上很舒服。

It's a question of when and how these programs and -- and expenditures are align to the shipment scenario, you know, I think on the the end of the -- at the end of December we have a better fix on that.

問題是這些計劃和支出何時以及如何與發貨情況保持一致，我認為在 12 月底，我們對此有更好的解決方案。

I guess to kind of go to my first question, then, given that you don't want to have to revise numbers again, um, you know, how do you get comfortable that earnings are going to be able to grow at an average of 45% for the remaining part of the year to bring you to the 128 to 133 level?

那麼，我想回到我的第一個問題，因為你不想再次修改數字，嗯，你知道，你如何放心地看到今年剩餘時間裡收入將能夠以平均 45% 的速度增長，使你達到 128 到 133 的水平？

Okay.

好的。

Sally you have to remember, you have to remember that we have easy counts against this year, particularly in the second and first quarter, where we took big earnings decline.

莎莉，你必須記住，你必須記住，我們對今年的統計很容易，特別是在第二季度和第一季度，我們的盈利大幅下降。

We're coming into a period of time where travel retail is down 40% in the second quarter.

我們正進入第二季度旅遊零售下降 40% 的時期。

We're not anticipating that the fourth quarter, we had an increase in travel business this year.

我們預計今年第四季度的旅遊業務不會有所增長。

There are a lot of things, the timing of our program falling into place, you know, going up against easy counts will make that number, while on a percentage-wise it looks large in value terms it's really not, you know, unattainable.

有很多事情，我們計劃的時間安排到位，你知道，與簡單的計數相比，這個數字就會達到這個數字，而從百分比來看，它在價值方面看起來很大，但你知道，它實際上並不是無法實現的。

Right, what area the assumptions that underpin your estimates in terms of cost savings and how much of that would drop to the bottom line?

對了，在成本節約方面，哪些假設是支持你的估計的，其中有多少會下降到底線？

In the guidance that we gave on gross margin improvement as well as operating expense improvement, we have incorporated the savings coming from the restructuring, um, the timing of the restructuring savings really or -- probably 3/4 of that total amount of $45 million in savings would be achieved during fiscal 2003, primarily, you know, fully kind of kicking in the second and third quarter.

在我們給出的關於毛利率改善和營業費用改善的指導中，我們已經納入了來自重組的節省，嗯，重組節省的時間實際上或者——可能在 2003 財年實現了 4500 萬美元節省總額的 3/4，主要是，你知道，在第二和第三季度完全實現。

Again, that's another reason why we're more comfortable, um, with the earnings growth in the back half of the year.

這也是我們對今年下半年的盈利增長感到更加滿意的另一個原因。

Okay, should we assume that drops to the bottom line?

好吧，我們應該假設下降到底線嗎？

Well, you can assume that it's baked into the numbers we have given you.

好吧，您可以假設它已包含在我們給您的數字中。

Okay.

好的。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

We'll go next to Wendy Nicholson with Solomon Smith Barney.

接下來我們將和所羅門美邦一起去溫迪·尼克爾森。

Hi, good morning.

早上好。

Hi.

你好。

I have two questions.

我有兩個問題。

The first on the cost savings, the 40 million or so.

首先就節約成本來說，4000萬左右。

It sounds like the cost savings of 40 million are offset by the incremental $35 to $40 million in advertising.

聽起來 4000 萬美元的成本節省被增加的 35 至 4000 萬美元的廣告費用所抵消。

Am I understanding that right, that 100% of the cost savings is going to be reinvested and if so, I'm not sure where we get so much margin improvement.

我的理解是否正確，100% 的成本節省將用於再投資，如果是這樣，我不確定我們從哪裡獲得如此多的利潤率改善。

No, um, what we -- what we explained with -- what Fred was explaining with the 30 or so, 40 million of advertising spending was one of the reasons that for the first quarter performance, all right, so we have shifted some of our spending a little towards the beginning of the year, we want to keep the momentum going that we started to build in the fourth quarter of this year, going into the Christmas season next year.

不，嗯，我們——我們解釋的——弗雷德所解釋的大約 30、4000 萬的廣告支出是第一季度表現的原因之一，好吧，所以我們已經將一些支出稍微轉移到今年年初，我們希望保持我們在今年第四季度開始建立的勢頭，進入明年的聖誕節。

Um, and -- and, you know, so it's -- yesterday you say where are our savings reflected in PNL, they were reflected in the gross margin improvement we talked about, as well as in the operating expense improvement, but obviously there is a mix between the savings we have in the spending plans that go with supporting the business, all of which results in the $1.28 to $1.33 estimate range we put out there.

嗯，而且，你知道，所以，昨天你說我們的節省反映在 PNL 中，它們反映在我們談到的毛利率改善以及運營費用改善中，但顯然我們在支持業務的支出計劃中節省的成本是混合的，所有這些都導致​​我們給出的估計範圍為 1.28 美元到 1.33 美元。

Okay, the second question I had, though, was back at the end of the third quarter when you gave us the guidance originally, I think it was $43 million in cost savings, 75% in '03, at the time the guidance was the bulk of that cost savings would come in the first half of the year, and it sounds now like a lot of the cost savings are being pushed out a little bit, and won't be showing up as much in the first half of the year.

好吧，我的第二個問題是在第三季度末，當您最初向我們提供指導時，我認為節省了 4300 萬美元的成本，03 年為 75%，當時的指導是大部分成本節省將在今年上半年實現，現在聽起來很多成本節省都被推遲了一點，並且不會在今年上半年顯現出來。

As anything changed or are the cost-savings programs taking more time to have impact, or are they just a function of the external environment?

隨著情況發生變化，成本節約計劃是否需要更多時間才能產生影響，或者它們只是外部環境的函數？

I'm sorry I didn't realize that we had said that, and I don't recall that, but they're not taking really any longer than we anticipated, you know, they're being implemented, some of them have been.

很抱歉，我沒有意識到我們說過這樣的話，我也不記得了，但他們並沒有比我們預期的時間更長，你知道，他們正在實施，其中一些已經實施了。

They're being implemented during the first quarter, fully recognized in our numbers by the second quarter

它們將在第一季度實施，並在第二季度的數據中得到充分認可

Okay.

好的。

Maybe that's what we said earlier was we were implementing them in the first and second quarter, but they should be fully up by the second quarter.

也許這就是我們之前所說的，我們將在第一季度和第二季度實施它們，但它們應該在第二季度之前完全完成。

Very last thing.

最後一件事。

Can you quantify the magnitude of the orders that have been delayed from the first quarter into the second quarter.

您能否量化一下從第一季度推遲到第二季度的訂單量？

Are we talking 2% of sales growth? 1%?

我們談論的是 2% 的銷售增長嗎？ 1%？

I would say between 1 and 2%

我想說 1% 到 2% 之間

Okay.

好的。

Okay, and I would say this is primarily a U.S. issue.

好吧，我想說這主要是美國的問題。

Okay, okay, that's helpful.

好吧好吧，這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

We'll go next to Linda Bultonweitz from Fahnestock.

接下來我們將前往 Fahnestock 的 Linda Bultonweitz。

Thank you, um, could you comment just on, you know, you had pretty strong cash flow performance, and what your stance is right now towards acquisitions.

謝謝，嗯，您能否評論一下，您知道，您擁有相當強勁的現金流表現，以及您現在對收購的立場。

Are you going to really focus on share repurchase, or thinking on doing acquisitions, could you comment on that, please?

您真的會專注於股票回購，還是考慮進行收購，您能對此發表評論嗎？

Obviously we're going to continue to be opportunistic.

顯然，我們將繼續機會主義。

If we see the right property that fits into our portfolio, we're interested.

如果我們看到適合我們投資組合的合適房產，我們就會感興趣。

Our balance sheet is positioned to be opportunistic, no question about it.

毫無疑問，我們的資產負債表是機會主義的。

Having said that, in the meantime, as Rick mentioned to you, we have also, you know, continued to -- to acquire some of our stock back and, you know, we -- we had authorization in total of about eight million shares and we've so far bought back 4 1/2, so, you know, those are kind of the things we will be doing.

話雖如此，與此同時，正如里克向您提到的，我們還繼續回購我們的一些股票，您知道，我們獲得了總共約 800 萬股的授權，到目前為止我們已經回購了 4 1/2 股，所以，您知道，這些是我們將要做的事情。

Okay, can you comment specifically on, um, the sale of the Unilever fragrance business?

好的，您能具體評論一下聯合利華香水業務的出售嗎？

Well, I can't comment on that, but, you know, our -- our strategy is basically, as you know, we like to have brands where we can bring value to the proposition and build them over time, you know, and -- and as you know strategically, we're very interested in the makeup category, hair care category and, um, skin care category, so we leave it to you to interpret what that means.

嗯，我不能對此發表評論，但是，你知道，我們的戰略基本上是，如你所知，我們喜歡擁有能夠為主張帶來價值並隨著時間的推移建立它們的品牌，你知道，而且，正如你在戰略上所知，我們對化妝品類別、護髮類別和嗯，皮膚護理類別非常感興趣，所以我們讓您來解釋這意味著什麼。

Would you going forward try to pull back from doing brands in the fragrance area not sold at your own counters?

您是否會嘗試停止在香水領域生產不在您自己的專櫃銷售的品牌？

No.

不。

Okay.

好的。

What does that mean?

這意味著什麼？

In other words, um, would you consider strategically focusing only on fragrances that would be part of your franchises such as the Estee Lauder brand and the Clinique brand?

換句話說，嗯，您是否會考慮在戰略上僅關注屬於您的特許經營權一部分的香水，例如雅詩蘭黛品牌和倩碧品牌？

No, no, no.

不不不。

I think we have a great opportunity inside our franchise in the Tommy and the Donna Karans.

我認為我們在湯米和唐娜·卡蘭斯的特許經營權中擁有很好的機會。

The travel retail business is a major contributor to that business so I think we're -- it gives you the critical mass in -- we need and some of the other channels of distribution.

旅遊零售業務是該業務的主要貢獻者，所以我認為我們——它為您提供了——我們需要的關鍵數量以及其他一些分銷渠道。

No, we don't have that in mind.

不，我們沒有這個想法。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

We'll go next to Carol Wilke with Merrill Lynch.

接下來我們將討論美林證券的卡羅爾·威爾克。

Thanks, good morning.

謝謝，早上好。

A couple of quick questions.

幾個簡單的問題。

Rick, you mentioned for the year advertising promotion in total was 28% of sales, is that a level you're expecting to continue in '03, given the heavier spending?

Rick，您提到今年廣告促銷總額佔銷售額的 28%，考慮到支出增加，您預計 03 年會繼續保持這一水平嗎？

I think it will be around that, maybe a little -- a little more depending on the situation, but, you know, look, one of the things in the first quarter is, of course, -- as you know, September books day, they basically break in August, so, you don't expect -- you -- and October books go into September basically, so you expect them like that.

我認為這會圍繞這一點，也許會稍微多一點，具體取決於情況，但是，你知道，看，第一季度的一件事當然是，正如你所知，九月圖書日，它們基本上在八月中斷，所以，你不會期望——你——和十月圖書基本上進入九月，所以你期望它們會這樣。

Since we're driving advertising a little more aggressive, that's what the -- that's what part of that is, and, you know, if you will have any -- look, the problem with this is if you look at everything in quarters, you, you know, depends how the order flow goes into the stores, impacts results.

由於我們正在更加積極地推動廣告，這就是——這就是其中的一部分，而且，你知道，如果你有的話——看，問題是，如果你按季度查看所有內容，你知道，這取決於訂單流如何進入商店，影響結果。

So it's better to look at it after the first six months and then the third and fourth quarter has less of that, um, in terms of shipping in in front of the Christmas season.

因此，最好在前六個月後查看，然後第三季度和第四季度的情況會有所減少，嗯，在聖誕節前的發貨方面。

That doesn't happen in the second quarter.

第二季度不會發生這種情況。

So, you know, you really have to have a better fix in how the company's performing at the end of the first half from all our analysis we have looked at, we're comfortable with what we presented here today.

所以，你知道，你真的必鬚根據我們所查看的所有分析，對公司上半年末的表現進行更好的修正，我們對今天在這裡介紹的內容感到滿意。

For a full-year run rate.

對於全年運行率。

I was trying to move away from the quarter.

我試圖離開這個季度。

That is maybe higher.

那可能更高。

Yeah.

是的。

And second, could you give an idea what the travel retail business did in the fourth quarter.

其次，您能否介紹一下旅遊零售業務在第四季度的表現。

I know you saw pretty decent sequential improvement from December to March.

我知道從 12 月到 3 月您看到了相當不錯的連續改善。

It was up 5% in the fourth quarter.

第四季度增長了 5%。

And one final quick question, you had significant improvement in your cash conversion cycle.

最後一個簡單的問題是，您的現金轉換週期有了顯著改善。

Yes.

是的。

How low do you think you can get that?

你認為你能得到多低的價格？

That's pretty amazing.

這真是太神奇了。

Is there a target date for that cycle?

該週期有目標日期嗎？

Well, you got -- the -- last year at this time, we were talking about, obviously we didn't expect to have the kind of situation we had in September and so on, so forth, so our inventory was relatively high and all of you said to us, challenged our competency in terms of managing our assets, so we needless to say had the extra little motivation to respond to this and I think we -- I must congratulate my team there.

嗯，去年的這個時候，我們正在談論，顯然我們沒有想到會出現九月份的情況等等，所以我們的庫存相對較高，你們所有人都對我們說，挑戰了我們管理資產的能力，所以不用說，我們沒有額外的動力來應對這一點，我想我們——我必須祝賀我的團隊。

I think they did an outstanding job, and I still think there is room for improvement going forward.

我認為他們做得非常出色，而且我仍然認為未來還有改進的空間。

Maybe, Rick, you want to say a couple of things about that.

也許，里克，你想對此說幾句話。

I think Fred is right.

我認為弗雷德是對的。

We have this conference coming up on September 17th laying out problems -- programs going forward and long objectives related to inventory management and other financial objectives as well.

我們將於 9 月 17 日召開這次會議，提出問題——未來的計劃以及與庫存管理和其他財務目標相關的長期目標。

I think you will get a good feel for where you think we can end up at that time.

我想你會對我們當時的結局有一個很好的感覺。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Sure.

當然。

Our next question is from Andrew McQuilling with UBS Warburg.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀華寶 (UBS Warburg) 的安德魯·麥克奎林 (Andrew McQuilling)。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Fred, can you lay out your ethics assumptions, the average that you're assuming for the Euro and the Yen for the full year fiscal '03?

Fred，您能否列出您的道德假設，即您對 03 財年全年歐元和日元的假設平均值？

I'm passing it to Rick to respond to.

我將其傳遞給 Rick 進行回复。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The information we talked to that I mentioned, Andrew, were based on spot rates that we ran, and we used 98 cents for the Euro, $1.53 for the pound, and $1.19 for the Yen.

安德魯，我提到的我們談論的信息是基於我們運行的即期匯率，我們使用歐元 98 美分，英鎊 1.53 美元，日元 1.19 美元。

Our actual full year projections are weaker for the Euro, and weaker for the Yen, but stronger for the pound, so, you know, I think the spot rate and the guidance are pretty close to what we estimated for the rest of the year.

我們對歐元的實際全年預測較弱，對日元的預測較弱，但對英鎊的預測較強，因此，我認為即期匯率和指導非常接近我們對今年剩餘時間的估計。

Terrific.

了不起。

Can you talk about the number of retail stores that you ended the year with?

您能談談您年底擁有的零售店數量嗎？

You're over 400.

你已經400多了。

Do you have an actual number?

你有實際號碼嗎？

I think we can gelt back to you with a specific number.

我想我們可以給你回復一個具體的數字。

I -- we only, you know, I think we only added about 20 stores or something like that during the year.

我——我們只是，你知道，我想我們這一年只增加了大約 20 家商店或類似的東西。

We'll be more specific to you.

我們將為您提供更具體的信息。

Call -- call Dennis after this call and he'll give you the exact numbers

打電話——打完電話後給丹尼斯打電話，他會給你確切的號碼

Okay, and, Fred, you can say anything about same-store sales trends in the retail stores?

好的，弗雷德，您能談談零售店的同店銷售趨勢嗎？

Well, I'll tell you we have experienced a fabulous same-stores sales trends until about September.

好吧，我會告訴你，直到九月份左右，我們都經歷了驚人的同店銷售趨勢。

And then it became tricky, you know, two of our brands are showing increases and one of our brands is showing a slight decrease, um, but what is happening there is, you know, if you look at cross the landscape, you have a lot of places where we're showing growth, and then you look at places like San Francisco or New York or some of the areas where you have more tourist traffic, and they were in some of the stores down 10, 15%.

然後事情就變得棘手了，你知道，我們的兩個品牌顯示出增長，我們的一個品牌顯示出略有下降，嗯，但正在發生的事情是，你知道，如果你縱觀全局，你會發現很多地方我們都在增長，然後你看看像舊金山或紐約這樣的地方，或者一些遊客流量較多的地區，有些商店下降了 10%、15%。

Now, that's better than what it was, you know, after September, some of the stores were down 20%.

現在，這比以前好多了，你知道，9月份之後，有些商店下降了20%。

It seemed to be coming back nicely but not as buoyant.

它似乎恢復得很好，但沒有那麼活躍。

The traffic in the malls, um, by and large, is not only effecting department stores, it's effecting everybody, including our individual stores, you know.

商場裡的人流，嗯，總的來說，不僅影響百貨商店，還影響每個人，包括我們各個商店，你知道。

Now, makes sense the travel impact.

現在，旅行的影響是有道理的。

Can you talk about the improvement in the travel retail business.

您能談談旅遊零售業務的改善嗎？

It's a nice result to see.

這是一個很好的結果。

Is some of this retailer inventory replenishment travel retail?

這家零售商中有一些是補充庫存的旅遊零售店嗎？

That's part of it.

這是其中的一部分。

The other part is Europe has to really settle down.

另一方面是歐洲必須真正安定下來。

Europe has settled down and Asia's coming back a little bit, okay.

歐洲已經安定下來，亞洲也正在恢復一點，好吧。

Europe I guess up year over year.

我認為歐洲逐年上升。

Yes.

是的。

Terrific.

了不起。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll go next to Catherine Lewis of Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們請摩根士丹利的凱瑟琳·劉易斯 (Catherine Lewis) 發言。

Good morning.

早上好。

Just a follow up on free cash flow drivers.

只是自由現金流驅動因素的後續行動。

What is your outlook for cap Ex next year, and you had mentioned the $60 million in restructuring cash outlayed.

您對明年的資本支出展望是什麼？您提到了 6000 萬美元的重組現金支出。

How does that flow in '03?

03 年的情況如何？

Some of it was in '02, the bulk would be in '03.

其中一些是在 02 年，大部分是在 03 年。

As far as cap Ex you know, we had stated -- EX, we had stated our plans were between 4 and 4 1/2% of sales.

就您所知的上限而言，我們曾說過 -- EX，我們曾說過我們的計劃佔銷售額的 4 % 到 4 1/2% 之間。

On September 17th, we will lay out strategic initiatives, which we will include what we feel our capital spending will be not only for next year by category but going forward as well, so.

9 月 17 日，我們將製定戰略舉措，其中我們將包括我們認為我們的資本支出不僅會按類別用於明年，而且還將包括未來的資本支出。

Okay, and separately on Estee Lauder, the Estee Lauder brand, um, you -- Fred, you had mentioned that you believed that the market shares would start to rebound.

好的，另外關於雅詩蘭黛，雅詩蘭黛品牌，嗯，你——弗雷德，你提到你相信市場份額會開始反彈。

Can you talk about some of the drivers.

您能談談一些司機嗎？

You know, I noticed in Bloomingdales, you're reformatting the counters.

你知道，我注意到在布魯明戴爾百貨公司，你正在重新格式化櫃檯。

Is it just increased promotional initiatives or are there other initiatives that you think will help the brand?

是只是增加了促銷活動，還是您認為還有其他對品牌有幫助的活動？

No, I think there is a lot of new projects going on in terms of product innovation, um, image of advertising, intensity of the advertising spent because we're seeing -- we're seeing very strong performance at the lower brand and international, based on their formula, and as you know, we have worked hard here in the United States to sort of accommodate the same sort of strategy we have international meaning focusing more on product innovation and advertising with the proper message, um, and -- and last related to some of the relying on deferent purchase generating the growth, so, that's the direction we're going and -- and, you know, we have had the last two, three years, working already on that, and we took the pains along the way, and I think we're sort of cutting the corner, moving in the right direction.

不，我認為在產品創新方面有很多新項目正在進行，嗯，廣告形象，廣告支出的強度，因為我們看到——我們看到低端品牌和國際品牌的表現非常強勁，基於他們的公式，正如你所知，我們在美國努力適應我們具有國際意義的相同戰略，更多地關注產品創新和廣告，並傳達適當的信息，嗯，最後與一些依賴不同購買產生增長的產品有關，所以，“這是我們前進的方向，而且，你知道，我們已經在過去的兩三年裡致力於此，我們一路走來付出了艱辛，我認為我們正在走捷徑，朝著正確的方向前進。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

We'll go next to Amy Chasen with Goldman Sachs.

接下來是高盛的艾米·查森 (Amy Chasen)。

Hi, um, a couple of things.

嗨，嗯，有幾件事。

First of all on Japan, I think you mentioned that you thought that was going to improve in fiscal '03.

首先關於日本，我想您提到過您認為日本的情況會在 03 財年有所改善。

I think last we spoke you had talked about, um, Loreal being increasingly competitive in this market.

我想上次我們談話時您談到了歐萊雅在這個市場上的競爭力日益增強。

Can you give us an update on that.

您能給我們介紹一下最新情況嗎？

In Japan, what we're seeing is Estee Lauder is performing very well.

在日本，我們看到雅詩蘭黛的表現非常好。

In fact, it has a tremendous June and also July, I'm talking about my retail sales, M.A.C. is showing growth, Bobbi Brown is showing growth.

事實上，六月和七月的表現非常出色，我說的是我的零售銷售，M.A.C.正在成長，芭比布朗正在成長。

The brand that is struggling a little bit and has been losing a little bit of market share is Clinique.

倩碧（Clinique）是一個陷入困境並正在失去一點市場份額的品牌。

The reason for that is it has such a strong position, like with a lot of new brands being introduced into the marketplace in the same distribution of being, um, such a powerful and such a powerful position, they have been challenged the most, so that's -- that's what really has -- if -- if we were to take out what the -- the, you know, the loss of market share of Clinique, we would have shown growth last year, so, but we're working on it as well aggressively to make sure that we maintain our position, and that sort of just the situation in -- in Japan.

原因是它擁有如此強大的地位，就像許多新品牌以同樣的分佈引入市場一樣，嗯，如此強大和如此強大的地位，他們受到了最大的挑戰，所以這就是——這就是真正的——如果——如果我們要剔除——你知道，倩碧市場份額的損失，我們去年就會表現出增長，所以，但我們也在積極努力，以確保我們保持我們的地位，等等日本的情況。

Overall, as you know, you read -- should see the numbers on the domestic market.

總的來說，如您所知，您應該看到國內市場上的數字。

Overall, the business climate at is not that terrific, but thanks to the fact that we're only in -- in the highest prestige distribution channel there, we're holding out relatively well, even with the numbers that we had this year as Rick stated, we showed an improvement in profitability.

總體而言，那裡的商業環境並不是那麼好，但由於我們只是在那裡享有最高聲望的分銷渠道，所以我們的表現相對較好，即使按照里克所說的今年的數字，我們的盈利能力也有所改善。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Um, the, can you comment on why you expect the sales growth sequentially to slow in the first quarter relative to the fourth.

嗯，您能否評論一下為什麼您預計第一季度的銷售增長相對於第四季度會連續放緩。

Is that just because the first quarter is a bigger quarter or is there anything else going on there?

這僅僅是因為第一季度是一個更大的季度還是還有其他事情發生？

I didn't quite understand the question.

我不太明白這個問題。

Pass that by me again

再把它傳給我

In the fourth quarter, your sales were up, what 7 1/2%.

第四季度，你們的銷售額增長了 7.5%。

Yeah.

是的。

For the first quarter, you're expecting them to be up, um, two to three.

對於第一季度，你預計他們會上漲，嗯，兩比三。

Uh-huh.

嗯。

So we're talking about shipment now.

所以我們現在討論的是發貨。

Yes, in terms of shipment as I said, I expect -- I expect that some of the -- the Christmas orders are going to -- are going to come later this year, I think some of them will float into the first couple of weeks of October.

是的，正如我所說，就發貨而言，我預計 - 我預計其中一些 - 聖誕節訂單將 - 將在今年晚些時候發貨，我認為其中一些將推遲到十月的前幾週。

That's one part of it.

這是其中的一部分。

The other part, you should remember, when you launch new products today, you know, the sell-in is going to be more prudent than it used to be.

另一方面，你應該記住，當你今天推出新產品時，你知道，銷售將比以前更加謹慎。

Last year we launched Intuition with the fragrance launch, et cetera, the pipelines are going to be more restrained.

去年我們隨著香水的推出推出了 Intuition，等等，管道將更加受到限制。

Those are the kind of things going on.

這些就是正在發生的事情。

Okay, no, that's good last but not least, you talked a lot about the improvement in travel retail you tell us what your assumptions are for travel retail growth in fiscal '03.

好的，不，最後但並非最不重要的一點是，您談論了很多關於旅遊零售業改善的問題，您告訴我們您對 03 財年旅遊零售業增長的假設是什麼。

The assumption is we're doing we have planned relatively conservative.

假設我們正在做的事情我們的計劃相對保守。

As you know, I don't want to bet the farm.

如你所知，我不想拿農場做賭注。

I'm just having, you know, and travel retail has to produce it all.

我只是擁有，你知道，旅遊零售必須生產這一切。

We -- we've taken the assumption we're going to grow our business 8%, um, you know, and that, I think, is conservative, given the fact that last year, you know, we were almost out of business there for awhile.

我們假設我們的業務將增長 8%，嗯，你知道，我認為這個假設是保守的，因為去年，你知道，我們在那裡有一段時間幾乎停業。

Great, thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

We'll go next to Neil Goldman with State Street Global.

接下來我們將與道富環球 (State Street Global) 的尼爾·高盛 (Neil Goldman) 進行對話。

Hi, just one small question, if you don't mind.

你好，如果你不介意的話，只是問一個小問題。

I just have to find it, so, one second.

我只需要找到它，所以，等一下。

First thing, option expense.

首先，期權費用。

You can talk a little bit about option expensing, what your thoughts are if you plan on adopting this year, I know you're very conservative the numbers that you put on the notes, um, as far as actuary -- of the PNL, what are your plans?

你可以談談期權費用，如果你計劃今年採用，你的想法是什麼，我知道你對你在票據上寫的數字非常保守，嗯，就盈虧精算師而言，你的計劃是什麼？

My basic plan is, you know, this is under review.

我的基本計劃是，你知道，這正在審查中。

I think once it's clear, what the formulation see what the formula's going to be able to do this, and once there is greater transparency, we have no aversion to adopting whatever makes sense and makes it easier for the investment community to interpret the performances.

我認為，一旦明確了公式的內容，就會看到公式能夠做到什麼，一旦透明度提高，我們就不會迴避採用任何有意義的東西，並使投資界更容易解釋業績。

We have no issues with that.

我們對此沒有任何問題。

All we're looking for is clarity as to how to do it, et cetera.

我們所尋求的只是清楚如何去做等等。

Rick, you may want to comment as to what the effect would be on '02.

Rick，你可能想評論一下這對 02 會有什麼影響。

On '02, under the assumption that the options would vest over time, which as you say not the way we have reflected in our foot notes.

在 02 年，假設期權會隨著時間的推移而歸屬，正如您所說，這不是我們在腳註中反映的方式。

We have been very conservative and assume that upon granting the options were vested but looking at them vesting over time, the impact on fiscal '02 for the options would be 2 cents a share.

我們一直非常保守，並假設授予期權後即已歸屬，但隨著時間的推移觀察它們的歸屬，期權對 02 財年的影響將為每股 2 美分。

Great.

偉大的。

You have been talking, it's got to be six months or so, about how in your budgeting process for next year you were, A, going back to the 2001 expense levels and starting from there, and, B, you were going to make the PNL more variable so you could act more quickly.

您一直在談論，大約需要六個月左右的時間，關於明年的預算流程，A，回到 2001 年的費用水平並從那裡開始，B，您將使 PNL 更具可變性，以便您可以更快地採取行動。

Can you talk a little bit as when you got through the budgeting process now, how did you we wind up in both of those levels?

您能談談當您現在完成預算流程時，我們是如何最終達到這兩個級別的嗎？

Well, you know, obviously we drove as hard as possible to try to get back to a 1, but to get totally back to a one is obviously impossible because we have, um, added, you know, distribution, we have added the distributor, we have, um, we have, of course, the costs that go up, you know, we have depreciation you can't do anything about so, but we have taken the very hard position, certainly with the -- with one piece of the puzzle and that's payroll.

嗯，你知道，顯然我們盡了最大努力試圖回到1，但完全回到1顯然是不可能的，因為我們已經，嗯，添加了，你知道，分銷，我們已經添加了分銷商，我們有，嗯，我們當然有成本上升，你知道，我們有折舊，你對此無能為力，但我們採取了非常強硬的立場，當然是——用一塊拼圖，那就是工資單。

For, um, for our executives, et cetera.

對於，嗯，對於我們的高管，等等。

We have salary freeze in place, and all kinds of nasty little things.

我們凍結了工資，還有各種令人討厭的小事情。

I don't want to explain to much in detail, but we have taken a very hard position and said basically, '02 doesn't exist, and, you know, this is reality, and then we have -- we have a responsibility not to let the productivity declines occur, and that's been the very, and I must -- I'm very proud of my management team.

我不想詳細解釋，但我們採取了非常強硬的立場，基本上說，‘02 不存在，而且，你知道，這是現實，然後我們有責任不讓生產力下降發生，這就是我必須的，我為我的管理團隊感到非常自豪。

They have all supported me and bought into the concept and volunteered to have take personal pain along the way to make this happen.

他們都支持我並接受了這個概念，並自願在實現這一目標的過程中承受個人痛苦。

To show example from the top.

從頂部顯示示例。

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，很公平。

And one more question, Fred, this is a little tough one.

還有一個問題，弗雷德，這個問題有點棘手。

I apologize.

我道歉。

Yeah.

是的。

this year was so bad you missed essentially the quarterly earnings heading for the last four quarters which I know has to be incredibly difficult for you.

今年的情況非常糟糕，您基本上錯過了過去四個季度的季度收益，我知道這對您來說非常困難。

In giving guidance next year, $1.28 to $1.33, I think even though that was the consensus in, in everyone's mind, everyone expects you to bring that number down to give you more wiggle room.

在明年給出 1.28 美元到 1.33 美元的指導時，我認為儘管這是大家心目中的共識，但每個人都希望你降低這個數字，以便給你更多的迴旋空間。

It doesn't seem like you have given yourself that much wiggle room for next year.

看起來你並沒有給自己明年那麼多迴旋餘地。

Why do that?

為什麼要這麼做？

Well, first of all, you know, um, there is going to be -- look, we have been negatively effected by exchange.

嗯，首先，你知道，嗯，將會有——看，我們受到了交換的負面影響。

Okay

好的

Okay.

好的。

Over the last five years.

在過去的五年裡。

This is changing so we think we're going to have a positive effect on the exchange side, okay.

這種情況正在發生變化，所以我們認為我們將對交易所產生積極的影響，好吧。

Secondly, we have, you know, we have eliminated substantial float between selling and sell-through to the tune of 120 million retail, equating to 70 million in shipment.

其次，我們已經消除了銷售和售出之間的大量浮動，零售量達到 1.2 億，相當於出貨量 7000 萬。

That's not occurring this year either, and quite frankly, um, you know, yesterday you look at last year in '01, our earnings were $1.34.

今年也不會發生這種情況，坦白地說，嗯，你知道，昨天你看看去年的 01 年，我們的收入是 1.34 美元。

But on a comparable basis, we were $1.40.

但在可比基礎上，我們的價格為 1.40 美元。

In the meantime, we no longer account for goodwill.

與此同時，我們不再考慮商譽。

Right.

正確的。

So, you know, I, um, if -- this company is committed to driving its business with the rigor it takes to come back to the earnings pattern, which we're accustomed to, and that's what the -- that's why I am raising the hurdle.

所以，你知道，我，嗯，如果——這家公司致力於以嚴格的方式推動其業務，以回到我們已經習慣的盈利模式，這就是——這就是我提高門檻的原因。

It's easy to put a lower hurdle on things, but I'm raising the hurdle and this management team is going to be paid against this hurdle, the way I look at it, you know, so I feel that we've been not over, um, not overconfident, um, I feel we have been prudent in this and thorough in going through those, the whole thing, this is what we assume.

降低門檻是很容易的，但我提高了門檻，這個管理團隊將根據這個障礙獲得報酬，我是這麼看待的，你知道，所以我覺得我們還沒有結束，嗯，沒有過度自信，嗯，我覺得我們在這方面一直很謹慎，並且徹底地經歷了這些，整個事情，這就是我們的假設。

Now, this is our best estimate based on what I see now.

現在，這是我們根據我現在所看到的情況做出的最佳估計。

If -- if something major drops out of the woodwork and people stop traveling and there is another event, who the hell knows, but from the way I see the things right now, given the circumstances, that's the way we feel we can operate.

如果——如果發生了一些重大事件，人們停止旅行，並且發生了另一件事，誰知道呢，但從我現在看待事情的方式來看，考慮到目前的情況，這就是我們認為我們可以運作的方式。

Okay.

好的。

We'll go next to Ron Mine with Equity Advisers.

我們將與股權顧問一起前往羅恩礦場。

Your line is open, please go ahead.

您的線路已開通，請繼續。

Okay.

好的。

No response, we'll move on with a follow-up from Jim Gingrich from Sanford Bernstein.

沒有回應，我們將繼續關注桑福德伯恩斯坦公司的吉姆·金里奇（Jim Gingrich）的後續報導。

Rick, I know you mentioned before on the variances that you have on the production and sourcing side, quite frequently falls from one quarter to the next.

里克，我知道您之前提到過生產和採購方面的差異，經常會從一個季度下降到下一個季度。

Is there any of that impact here in the September quarter as well, you know, given the inventory progress you made in the June quarter?

考慮到您在 6 月份季度取得的庫存進展，您知道在 9 月份季度是否也會產生任何影響？

Right, um, not -- not too much, Jim.

是的，嗯，不——不太多，吉姆。

I mean for the year, the improvement in the first quarter is going to be less than the guidance for the full fiscal year, we're expecting things to begin to turn around in the first quarter.

我的意思是，就今年而言，第一季度的改善將低於整個財年的指導，我們預計情況將在第一季度開始好轉。

Okay, good, Thanks.

好的，好的，謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

We'll take our final question from Amy Chasen with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛艾米·查森 (Amy Chasen) 提出的最後一個問題。

I just wanted to know if you anticipate taking anymore restructuring charges as you delve deeper into the whole cost reduction strategy.

我只是想知道，當您深入研究整個成本削減策略時，您是否預計會收取更多的重組費用。

Well, look, at this juncture I don't have it on the horizon, um, but you can, suffice it to say, that this company is committed to driving the corporation in a way that the products must be transparent.

好吧，看，在這個節骨眼上，我還沒有看到它，嗯，但是你可以，足以說，這家公司致力於以產品必須透明的方式推動公司發展。

If I see things that are not contributing to making the -- our earnings targets and doing other things in the future in terms of prospects, then we will address them.

如果我發現一些事情無助於實現我們的盈利目標以及未來在前景方面做其他事情，那麼我們將解決它們。

I told you that when we looked at Argentina, I could not see transparency over the next five years where it was going to take me to, so I think it will not be responsible to be in an environment where you're not making money, in fact, where you're losing money without transparency.

我告訴過你，當我們觀察阿根廷時，我看不到未來五年的透明度，所以我認為，在一個不賺錢的環境中，事實上，在沒有透明度的情況下賠錢的環境中，這是不負責任的。

If I see something occur in the future that there is no transparency in terms of contributors to this corporation's progress, then we'll react and be specific in explaining why.

如果我發現將來發生的事情導致該公司進步的貢獻者不透明，那麼我們將做出反應並具體解釋原因。

Great, it sounds like you don't anticipate anything in the very near future.

太好了，聽起來您對不久的將來沒有任何預期。

No.

不。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, this does conclude today's question-and-answer session.

謝謝大家，今天的問答環節到此結束。

If you were unable to join us for the entire call, a playback will be available between 12:30 p.m. eastern time today to Monday August 19th.

如果您無法參加整個通話，我們將在中午 12:30 之間提供回放。美國東部時間今天至 8 月 19 日星期一。

Dial 888-203-1112.

撥打 888-203-1112。

For the pass code of 554644.

密碼為 554644。

That concludes today's Estee Lauder conference call.

今天的雅詩蘭黛電話會議到此結束。

I would like to thank you all for your participation and wish you all a good day.

我要感謝大家的參與，並祝大家有美好的一天。