Eastgroup Properties Inc (EGP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the EastGroup Properties Inc fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Friday, February 7 of 2025.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 EastGroup Properties Inc 2024 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）此通話於 2025 年 2 月 7 日星期五錄製。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Marshall Loeb, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給總裁兼執行長馬歇爾·勒布 (Marshall Loeb)。請繼續。

Good morning and thanks for calling in for our fourth quarter 2024 conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest. Brent Wood, our CFO is also on the call. And since we'll make forward-looking statements, we ask that you listen to the following disclaimer.

早安，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季電話會議。一如既往，我們感謝您的關注。我們的財務長布倫特伍德 (Brent Wood) 也參加了電話會議。由於我們會做出前瞻性陳述，因此我們請您聽取以下免責聲明。

Please note that our conference call today will contain financial measures such as PNOI and FFO that are non-GAAP measures as defined in Regulation G. Please refer to our most recent financial supplement and to our earnings press release, both available on the investor page of our website and to our periodic reports furnished or filed with the SEC for definitions and further information regarding our use of these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of them to our GAAP results.

請注意，我們今天的電話會議將包含 PNOI 和 FFO 等財務指標，這些指標都是 G 條例中定義的非 GAAP 指標。請參閱我們最新的財務補充文件和收益新聞稿（均可在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到）以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提供或提交的定期報告，以了解定義和有關我們對這些非 GAAP 財務指標的使用以及將它們與我們的 GAAP 結果進行調節的更多信息。

Please also note that some statements during this call are forward-looking statements as defined in and within the Safe Harbors under the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

另外請注意，本次電話會議中的某些陳述屬於《1933 年證券法》、《1934 年證券交易法》和《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》的安全港條款所定義的前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements in the earnings press release along with our remarks are made as of today and reflect our current views of the company's plans, intentions, expectations, strategies, and prospects based on the information currently available to the company and on assumptions it has made. We undertake no duty to update such statements or remarks, whether as a result of new information, future or actual events or otherwise.

收益新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述以及我們的評論都是截至今天做出的，反映了我們根據公司目前掌握的資訊和所做的假設對公司計劃、意圖、期望、策略和前景的當前看法。我們不承擔更新此類聲明或言論的義務，無論是否出現新資訊、未來或實際事件或其他原因。

Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please see our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K for more detail about these risks.

此類聲明涉及已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他可能導致實際結果大不相同的因素。有關這些風險的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們的 SEC 文件，包括我們最近的 10-K 表年度報告。

Thanks, Keena. Good morning. I'll start by thanking our team. They worked hard throughout 2024 and what wasn't always a consistent cooperative environment. I'm proud of the results they achieved within this backdrop.

謝謝，Keena。早安.首先我要感謝我們的團隊。他們在整個 2024 年都努力工作，儘管合作環境並不總是一致的。我為他們在這樣的背景下所取得的成績感到自豪。

Our fourth quarter results demonstrate the quality of the portfolio we've built, and the continued resiliency of the industrial market. Some of the results produced include funds from operations rising 5.9% for the quarter and 7.9% for the year, excluding involuntary conversions in each year.

我們的第四季業績證明了我們建立的投資組合的品質以及工業市場的持續彈性。部分結果包括，本季營運資金成長 5.9%，全年成長 7.9%（不包括每年的非自願轉換）。

For over a decade, our quarterly FFO per share has exceeded the FFO per share reported in the same quarter prior year, truly a long-term trend. Year-end leasing was 97.1%, with occupancy at 96.1%. Average quarterly occupancy was 95.8%, which, although historically strong, is down over 200 basis points from fourth quarter 2023. Quarterly releasing spreads were 47% GAAP and 29% cash.

十多年來，我們季度的每股 FFO 一直超過去年同期報告的每股 FFO，這確實是一個長期趨勢。年底租賃率為 97.1%，入住率為 96.1%。平均季度入住率為 95.8%，儘管歷史最高水平，但較 2023 年第四季下降了 200 多個基點。季度發行利差為 47% GAAP 和 29% 現金。

Year-end results were 53% and 36% GAAP in cash, respectively. In cash, same store NOI rose 3.4% for the quarter and 5.6% for the year, despite occupancy declines in each period. Finally, we have the most diversified rent roll in our sector, with our 10 tenants falling to 7.2% of rents, down 70 basis points from year end 2023, and in more locations. We view our geographic and revenue diversity as strategic paths to stabilize future earnings growth, regardless of the economic environment.

年末業績分別為 53% 和 36% 的 GAAP 現金。以現金計算，儘管各時期的入住率均有所下降，但本季同店淨營業利潤仍上漲 3.4%，全年上漲 5.6%。最後，我們擁有業界最多樣化的租金組合，其中 10 位租戶的租金下降至 7.2%，比 2023 年底下降 70 個基點，並且分佈在更多地區。無論經濟環境如何，我們都將地理和收入多樣性視為穩定未來獲利成長的策略路徑。

In summary, we're pleased with our 2024 performance, including a record amount of square footage leased within the operating portfolio this past quarter. Alongside that, we're seeing an uptick in prospect activity. We need to convert these into signed leases but are optimistic about the prospects for an improving economy with a lack of new supply.

總而言之，我們對 2024 年的業績感到滿意，包括上個季度營運組合內租賃的創紀錄面積。除此之外，我們也看到潛在活動增加。我們需要將這些轉換為簽署的租約，但對缺乏新供應的情況下經濟改善的前景感到樂觀。

Green shoots may be an overused term, but we're hopeful it continues, which should build into a stronger latter 2025. We're focused on value creation via raising rents, acquisitions, and development. This allowed us to end the quarter 97.1% leased and continue pushing rents throughout the portfolio. We're excited about the acquisition opportunities we announced, which closed late fourth quarter.

「綠芽」可能是一個被過度使用的術語，但我們希望它能夠持續下去，並在 2025 年後期變得更加強勁。我們專注於透過提高租金、收購和開發來創造價值。這使得我們本季的租賃率達到 97.1%，並繼續推動整個投資組合的租金上漲。我們對宣布的收購機會感到非常興奮，該收購機會在第四季末完成。

In Dallas, we acquired four fully leased buildings adjacent to the DFW Airport, increasing our ownership in the submarket to roughly 2.7 million square feet. In late December, we closed on four fully leased buildings, growing our presence in the Southeast Valley of Phoenix.

在達拉斯，我們收購了 DFW 機場附近四棟已全部出租的建築，使我們在該子市場的所有權增加到約 270 萬平方英尺。12 月底，我們完成了四棟大樓的租賃，擴大了我們在鳳凰城東南谷地區的業務。

Overall, our acquisitions are guided by two criteria. One to be immediately accretive, and secondly, raising the long-term growth profile of the portfolio, thus creating NAV per share. Additionally, in each of these cases, they allowed us to grow our presence within an existing fast growing land constrained submarket. As we've stated before, our development starts are pulled by market demand within our parks. Based on our read through, we forecast 2025 starts of $300 million. We're projecting the majority of the starts in the second half of the year.

總體而言，我們的收購遵循兩個標準。一是立即增值，二是提高投資組合的長期成長狀況，進而創造每股資產淨值。此外，在每一個案例中，它們都使我們能夠在現有的快速成長的土地受限的子市場中擴大我們的影響力。正如我們之前所說，我們的開發起步是由園區內的市場需求所驅動。根據我們的閱讀，我們預測 2025 年的啟動資金將達到 3 億美元。我們預計大部分項目將在今年下半年開工。

While activity within our development program is improving, decision making remains methodical with prospects focusing later in the construction process. In terms of starts, we'll ultimately follow demand on the ground to dictate pace. Longer term, the continued decline in the supply pipeline is promising. The construction pipeline is at its lowest level since early 2016.

雖然我們的開發計劃內的活動正在改善，但決策仍然有條不紊，前景將重點放在建造過程的後期。在開始方面，我們最終將根據實地需求來決定速度。從長期來看，供應管道的持續減少是令人欣喜的。建築業庫存處於2016年初以來的最低水準。

Assuming reasonably steady demand, the market should tighten in 2025 allowing us to continue pushing rents and create development opportunities. As demand improves, our goal is to capitalize earlier than our private peers on development opportunities based on the combination of our team's experience, our balance sheet strength, existing tenant expansion needs, and the land and permits we have in hand.

假設需求相當穩定，市場應該會在 2025 年收緊，這將使我們能夠繼續提高租金並創造發展機會。隨著需求的增加，我們的目標是根據我們團隊的經驗、我們的資產負債表實力、現有租戶擴張需求以及我們手頭上的土地和許可證，比我們的私營同行更早地利用發展機會。

Brent will now speak to several topics, including assumptions within our 2025 guidance.

布倫特現在將談論幾個主題，包括我們 2025 年指引中的假設。

Good morning. Our fourth quarter results reflect the terrific execution of our team, the resilient performance of our portfolio, and the continued success of our time-tested strategy. FFO per share for the fourth quarter was $2.15 per share compared to $2.03 for the same quarter last year, an increase of 5.9%.

早安.我們的第四季度業績反映了我們團隊的出色表現、我們投資組合的強勁表現以及我們久經考驗的策略的持續成功。第四季每股 FFO 為 2.15 美元，去年同期為 2.03 美元，成長 5.9%。

From a capital perspective, we continue to access the equity market. During the quarter, we directly issued common shares for gross proceeds of $159 million settled forward shares' agreements for gross proceeds of $308 million with an additional settlement of $37 million after quarter end. Collectively, the shares issued in the fourth quarter transactions were initiated at an average price of $178 per share.

從資本角度，我們繼續進入股票市場。在本季度，我們直接發行普通股，總收益為 1.59 億美元，結算遠期股票協議，總收益為 3.08 億美元，並在季度末後額外結算 3700 萬美元。總體而言，第四季交易中發行的股票平均發行價為每股 178 美元。

As of today, we have $30 million in outstanding forward agreements and full capacity on our $675 million credit facilities. In December, we repaid two unsecured notes totalling $120 million. After quarter end, we refinanced a $100 million unsecured term loan, reducing the credit spread by 30 basis points, resulting in savings of approximately $1.5 million over the remaining five years of term.

截至今天，我們擁有 3,000 萬美元的未償還遠期協議，且 6.75 億美元的信貸額度已全部使用。12 月份，我們償還了兩張總額為 1.2 億美元的無擔保票據。季度末後，我們重新融資了 1 億美元的無擔保定期貸款，將信用利差降低了 30 個基點，從而在剩餘五年的期限內節省了約 150 萬美元。

Although capital markets are fluid, our balance sheet remains flexible and strong with record financial metrics. Our debt to total market capitalization was 15%. Our debt to EBITDA ratio is down to 3.4 times, and our interest in fixed charge coverage ratio is 11.5 times.

儘管資本市場瞬息萬變，我們的資產負債表仍保持靈活、強勁，財務指標創下歷史新高。我們的負債與總市值的比率為15%。我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率下降至 3.4 倍，我們的固定費用利息覆蓋率為 11.5 倍。

Looking forward to 2025, FFO guidance for the first quarter is estimated to be in the range of $2.05 to $2.13 per share, and $8.80 to $9 for the year. Those midpoints represent increases of 5.6% and 7.1% compared to the prior year, excluding involuntary conversion gain as a result of insurance claims.

展望 2025 年，預計第一季的 FFO 指引在每股 2.05 美元至 2.13 美元之間，全年 FFO 指引在 8.80 美元至 9 美元之間。這兩個中點與前一年相比分別增長了 5.6% 和 7.1%，不包括因保險索賠而產生的非自願轉換收益。

Please note that approximately 37% of the estimated annual G&A expense is expected to occur in the first quarter, primarily due to accelerated expense for employees who are retirement eligible under our equity incentive plans. Our rent collections remain healthy, with tenant defaults being contained to a handful of larger customers. With our tenant watch list holding steady, we anticipate a typical run rate of approximately 30 basis points of revenue for uncollectible accounts in 2025.

請注意，預計年度 G&A 費用中約有 37% 將發生在第一季度，這主要是由於根據我們的股權激勵計劃符合退休資格的員工的加速費用。我們的租金收取情況依然良好，租戶違約情況僅限於少數較大的客戶。由於我們的租戶觀察名單保持穩定，我們預計 2025 年壞帳收入的典型運行率約為 30 個基點。

Notable operating assumptions that comprise our 2025 guidance include: an average occupancy midpoint of 96%, cashing property midpoint of 5.9%, $300 million in new development starts and $150 million in strategic acquisitions. Our projected capital proceeds of $450 million are budgeted to be a combination of equity issuance and revolver use. There are four dead instruments scheduled to mature in 2025 for a modest total of $145 million.

構成我們 2025 年指引的值得注意的營運假設包括：平均入住率中位數為 96%、現金物業中位數為 5.9%、新開發案開工率為 3 億美元以及策略性收購率為 1.5 億美元。我們預計的 4.5 億美元資本利得將以股票發行和循環信貸使用相結合的方式進行。有 4 筆死資產預計將於 2025 年到期，總額為 1.45 億美元。

In summary, we are pleased with our solid 2024 results and thank you EastGroup team members that are listening to the call today. As we turn the page to 2025, we will continue to rely on our financial strength, the experience of our team, and the quality and location of our multi-tenant portfolio to lead us into the future.

總而言之，我們對 2024 年的穩健表現感到滿意，並感謝今天聆聽電話會議的 EastGroup 團隊成員。隨著我們翻開 2025 年的新篇章，我們將繼續依靠我們的財務實力、團隊的經驗以及多租戶組合的品質和位置來引領我們走向未來。

Now Marshall will make final comments.

現在馬歇爾將發表最後的評論。

Thanks, Brent. In closing, I'm proud of our 2024 results. And I'm excited about the landscape for 2025. Internally, we continue growing earnings while strengthening the balance sheet. Others have described the environment as turning, which feels about right. Within this backdrop, we're doing three things. First, we're working to maintain high occupancies while pushing rents. Second, we're continuing forward with development starts where submarket opportunities allow. And finally, over the past two years, we sourced several attractive new long-term investment opportunities, something which is much more expensive and a steady market.

謝謝，布倫特。最後，我為我們 2024 年的業績感到自豪。我對 2025 年的前景感到興奮。在內部，我們在加強資產負債表的同時繼續增加盈利。其他人將環境描述為轉變，感覺是正確的。在此背景下，我們正在做三件事。首先，我們努力維持高入住率，同時提高租金。其次，我們將繼續在子市場機會允許的領域進行開發工作。最後，在過去的兩年裡，我們找到了幾個有吸引力的新的長期投資機會，這些機會成本更高，而且市場穩定。

Stepping back from the near term, alike our positioning as our portfolio is benefiting from several long term positive secular trends such as population migration, near shoring and onshoring trends, evolving logistics change, and historically lower shallow bay market vacancies.

從短期來看，我們的定位與投資組合一樣，受益於幾個長期積極的長期趨勢，例如人口遷移、近岸外包和在岸外包趨勢、不斷發展的物流變化以及歷史上較低的淺灣市場空置率。

We also have a proven management team with a long-term public track record. Our portfolio quality in terms of buildings and markets improves each quarter. Our balance sheet is stronger than ever, and we're upgrading our diversity in both tenant based as well as geography.

我們也擁有一支經驗豐富、擁有長期公共業績記錄的管理團隊。我們的建築和市場方面的投資組合品質每季都在提高。我們的資產負債表比以往更加強勁，而且我們正在提升租戶和地理的多樣性。

Finally, I want to take a moment to congratulate our friend and Board member Eric Bolton on his upcoming retirement from MAA. Not only has Eric made a positive lasting impact on MAA, but in his spare time he's done the same here at EastGroup.

最後，我想花點時間祝賀我們的朋友和董事會成員 Eric Bolton 即將從 MAA 退休。Eric 不僅對 MAA 產生了積極持久的影響，而且他在業餘時間也在 EastGroup 做了同樣的事情。

We'll now open up the call for any questions.

我們現在開始回答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Andrew Berger, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯·伯傑。

Hey, good morning. This is Andrew on for Jeff Spector. Marshall, you mentioned the word green shoots earlier. I'm just curious if you're seeing this in any particular market?

嘿，早安。這是傑夫·斯佩克特 (Jeff Spector) 的安德魯 (Andrew)。馬歇爾，您之前提到了「綠芽」這個詞。我只是好奇您是否在任何特定市場看到過這種情況？

Hey, Andrew, good morning.

嘿，安德魯，早安。

I wouldn't say -- thankfully, no. I mean yes and no. It's not limited to any market. It felt pretty broad-based, really kind of late last year where prospect activity. And again, it's got to start somewhere, seem to pick up. And thankfully, that's continued into this year. So as we've said before, California has had some credit challenges for us and been a slower market and we've got pretty good signs vacancy that we're making headway on in LA. But even there, the activity has picked up.

我不會說——謝天謝地，沒有。我的意思既是又不是。它並不局限於任何市場。感覺基礎相當廣泛，其實有點像去年年末的潛在活動。再次，它必須從某個地方開始，看起來會有所改善。值得慶幸的是，這種情況一直延續到今年。正如我們之前所說的，加州給我們帶來了一些信貸挑戰，市場發展較為緩慢，而我們有相當好的跡象表明我們在洛杉磯的空置問題上正在取得進展。但即使在那裡，活動也已活躍起來。

So again, could it -- it could turn next week, but we're encouraged by it and we just need to convert those tours and proposals and letters of intent into sign leases. But I'm encouraged that it's not in just Florida or just Texas or anything like that. It's pretty broad-based across the portfolio.

所以，再說一次，它可能在下週發生變化，但我們對此感到鼓舞，我們只需要將這些參觀、提案和意向書轉化為簽署租約。但我很高興看到，這種現像不僅發生在佛羅裡達州或德克薩斯州或類似的地方。它的投資組合範圍相當廣泛。

Got it. I appreciate that color. And maybe as just a follow-up. I know your portfolio is more focused on consumption, but obviously, with tariffs being pretty topical over the past several weeks, I'm curious if that's come up in any conversations with your tenants and any themes that are worth calling out?

知道了。我很欣賞那個顏色。或許只是後續行動。我知道您的投資組合更側重於消費，但顯然，由於關稅在過去幾週非常受關注，我很好奇您在與租戶的對話中是否提到了這一點，以及有什麼值得一提的主題？

No. It's not come up in any tenant conversations that I'm aware of. I do think it's got to affect how people think about them, and we can talk a little later in the call as well about it. To us, it really affirms as you mentioned, this is why we want to be near the consumer.

不。據我所知，在任何與租戶的對話中都沒有提到這一點。我確實認為這會影響人們對他們的看法，我們可以在稍後的通話中討論這個問題。對我們來說，這確實證實了您提到的這一點，這就是我們想要貼近消費者的原因。

Look, if your shoes come made in China or Mexico or in the US, we just want to be near where that customer is buying their goods and services. And that's why we try to historically heard clear of ports, even though we're in some port cities, we steer clear the port because that seems much more volatile where that end user last mile consumption is more sticky and so we view it as a way to really kind of smooth out or avoid earning shocks by staying there ideally near the consumer and ideally, which in most cases, we are a growing consumer base.

你看，如果你的鞋子是在中國、墨西哥或美國製造的，我們只是想靠近顧客購買商品和服務的地方。這就是為什麼我們試圖從歷史上避開港口，即使我們在一些港口城市，我們也會避開港口，因為那裡似乎更加不穩定，最終用戶的最後一英里消費更加粘性，因此我們認為這是一種真正平滑或避免盈利衝擊的方式，理想情況下，呆在靠近消費者的地方，在大多數情況下，我們的消費者群體都在不斷增長。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Sure. Thanks, Andrew.

當然。謝謝，安德魯。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布，派珀·桑德勒。

Oh, hey, morning down there. And I forget if it's one or two questions, but it sounds it like it was 2. So just with that in mind, Marshall, on the development side, I think you said it was record leasing. It's an operating portfolio, but the development leasing was a little bit slower, but then you commented that you want to ramp development. So are you anticipating a return of the eventual development demand? Or are you seeing it real time where your positive development comments are supported by increased expansion demand by tenants?

噢，嘿，早安。我忘了這是一題還是兩題，但聽起來像是兩題。因此，馬歇爾，考慮到這一點，在開發方面，我認為您說這是創紀錄的租賃。這是一個營運組合，但開發租賃的速度稍微慢了一點，但後來你評論說你想加快開發。那麼您是否預期最終開發需求會回歸？或者您是否即時看到您對發展的正面評價得到了租戶不斷增加的擴張需求的支持？

Good morning. Yes. Our preference just -- great news is we have a lot of analysts that follow EastGroup. So we were trying to keep it to one just to keep the trend moving.

早安.是的。我們的偏好只是——好消息是我們有很多分析師關注 EastGroup。因此，我們試圖將其保持為一個，以保持趨勢的發展。

I'll keep it to one. I'll keep it to one.

我會將其保留為一個。我會保留一個。

All right. Thanks, Alex. But I thought our development -- look, last year, we brought our development starts down. That's the first time we've done that in several years, but we didn't see the leasing in the market. This year, if you look at our time line, our -- we started several in fourth quarter. It's really submarket-by-submarket, our development starts are projected to pick up kind of from the field this year.

好的。謝謝，亞歷克斯。但我認為我們的發展——你看，去年，我們的發展起步下降了。這是我們幾年來第一次這樣做，但我們沒有看到市場上的租賃情況。今年，如果你看我們的時間表，我們——我們在第四季度開始了幾個。這確實是針對每個子市場而言的，我們預計今年我們的開發開局將會回升。

Most of those are the back half of the year. And it's a combination of supply day is at an 8-year low. If anyone wants to -- in our investor roadshow, there's a slide, I believe it's about Page 16 that will show where vacancy is by product size, and it really speaks to the lack of supply or the lower supply in Shallow Bay.

其中大部分是今年下半年的事。目前供應量處於八年來的最低水準。如果有人想——在我們的投資者路演中，有一張幻燈片，我相信它大約在第 16 頁，它將按產品規模顯示空置情況，它確實說明了淺灣地區的供應不足或供應量較低。

So there's not a lot of supply. There's not a lot of vacancy in our sector. And starting late this year, again, giving it call it, 9, 10 months to deliver the building, we'll underwrite a year to lease it up. We think starting later in the year, given the activity we're seeing today, demand is going to tighten, and it will be a good time to step on the gas again for a while on development.

因此供應量不多。我們這個行業的空缺職位並不多。從今年年底開始，我們再假設一下，9 到 10 個月的時間來交付大樓，我們將承保一年的租賃期。我們認為，從今年稍後開始，鑑於我們今天看到的活動，需求將會收緊，這將是再次加大開發力度的好時機。

And that's really what's modeled in our guidance is probably tenants moving into developments later this year, second half a lot more frequently and development starts picking up in the second half of the year as well.

這其實就是我們指導方針中所模擬的情況，租戶可能會在今年稍後、下半年更頻繁地搬入開發項目，而且開發項目也會在下半年開始回升。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure, you're welcome.

當然，別客氣。

Craig Mailman, Citigroup.

花旗集團的克雷格‧梅爾曼 (Craig Mailman)。

Hey, good morning. Just want to touch on the delevering you guys have been doing, when I look at the balance sheet, right? You guys are down to 3.4 times debt to EBITDA, and you issued some equity that was relative to us, a little bit below NAV. Just kind of trying to get a sense of, are you guys trying to position the balance sheet to do a bigger transaction?

嘿，早安。當我查看資產負債表時，我只想談談你們一直在進行的去槓桿化，對嗎？你們的債務與 EBITDA 比率已降至 3.4 倍，而你們發行了一些相對於我們而言略低於資產淨值的股權。只是想了解一下，你們是否試圖透過資產負債表來進行更大的交易？

Or is the capital deployment on the development side, just not pencil with where debt rates are today? Just trying to get a sense of where you think the optimal leverage is for you guys? Or is this just kind of building capacity for the future?

還是說開發方面的資本配置與目前的債務利率不符？只是想了解一下你們認為對你們來說最佳的槓桿作用在哪裡？或者這只是為未來而進行的一種能力建構？

Yeah, I'll jump in. Hey, Craig, good morning. Yeah, it's not intentional that we're trying to drive the balance sheet down for any particular purpose or delever the balance sheet. We certainly have ceilings, which we're nowhere near, but metrics on the top end that we don't want to be above for a healthy balance sheet. But it's really the byproduct of a unusual but an extended period where we have viewed equity as being the best cost benefit spread investment capital opportunity relative to debt or even in past years, even compared to something like the revolver even.

是的，我會跳進去。嘿，克雷格，早安。是的，我們並沒有故意為了什麼特定目的而壓低資產負債表或去槓桿。我們當然有上限，雖然我們還遠遠沒有達到，但為了獲得健康的資產負債表，我們不希望高於最高限度的指標。但它實際上是一個不尋常但長期的副產品，在此期間，我們將股權視為相對於債務甚至在過去幾年中，甚至與循環信貸之類的東西相比，最佳的成本效益利差投資資本機會。

So yes, our issue at this past quarter on the -- probably at the lowest end of where we'd ideally want to be, we view it without getting into our NAV, but in and around NAV that's obviously not an exact science, there's quite a range. If you look on the FactSet or S&P amongst the groups that follow us there's probably at least like a $50 per share differential there in thoughts. But we're really more looking at the cost spread.

所以是的，我們上個季度的問題是——可能處於我們理想的最低水平，我們在不考慮資產淨值的情況下看待這個問題，但在資產淨值內外顯然不是一門精確的科學，範圍相當大。如果您查看 FactSet 或標準普爾 (S&P)，在關注我們的群體中，可能會發現其中每股差價至少為 50 美元。但我們實際上更關注成本分攤。

And I guess I'd point out that really the reason we're issuing is, thankfully, our team has continued to find via acquisitions like the fourth quarter, where they three stellar acquisitions and the development. So we've had good reason to get raised capital. We're really trying to be able to execute on those opportunities that they're pulling up.

我想指出的是，我們發行的真正原因是，值得慶幸的是，我們的團隊繼續透過像第四季度這樣的收購來尋找，他們進行了三次出色的收購和發展。因此我們有充分的理由籌集資金。我們確實在盡力抓住他們所抓住的這些機會。

So our goal is certainly, Craig, I think this year, in our guidance, we're budgeting for the first time in a couple of years, more of a mix between using the revolver, which is at a low five right now. And equity, I think we'll be more willing to carry a balance on the revolver a little bit more.

因此，克雷格，我認為，今年，在我們的指導下，我們的目標肯定是，幾年來首次編制預算，更多是使用左輪手槍的混合方案，目前左輪手槍的比例較低。而公平地說，我認為我們更願意在左輪手槍上多保留一點餘額。

But look, it's fluid. And there's not a lot of hope early part of the year but somewhere down the line, if rates come more in check with what we view the revolver and/or equity cost-wise, we view that as looking long term in EastGroup as a great opportunity and a great tailwind for us where we can unleash a lot of capital and a lot of opportunity. But a summary of that is it's really just been the byproduct of our evaluation and not anything intentful.

但看，它是流動的。今年年初我們對此沒有抱太大希望，但在未來的某個時候，如果利率能夠得到控制，並且符合我們所認為的循環信貸和/或股權成本，那麼我們認為，從長遠來看，EastGroup 是一個很好的機會，對我們來說也是一個巨大的順風，我們可以釋放大量的資本和機會。但總結一下，這其實只是我們評估的副產品，而不是任何有意為之的東西。

Okay. That's helpful. I'm going to sneak a second one in here. On your comment, Marshall, around kind of development decision-making is later in the process. I know historically, that had been the case in this last cycle, pre-leasing was happening. Just can you give us a sense on the tenant pool for the available development space you have and even the Starship space and comp space that you guys got back?

好的。這很有幫助。我要偷偷地把第二個放進去。馬歇爾，根據您的評論，有關開發決策的製定是在該過程的後期進行的。我知道，從歷史上看，上一輪週期就是這種情況，預租賃正在發生。您能否向我們介紹一下您可用的開發空間的租戶池，以及您收回的 Starship 空間和 comp 空間？

Sure. I love both, I would say the tenant pool, which is felt better, maybe I'm organizing my answer. It makes sense to me when you think about why tenants are taking a little longer, when supply picked up to such a degree, every prospect has a tenant broker and they want to make sure the space is ready when they're telling their clients, it's available.

當然。我喜歡這兩者，我想說的是租戶池，感覺更好，也許我正在組織我的答案。當你思考為什麼租戶需要更長的時間時，我認為這是有道理的，當供應量增加到如此程度時，每個潛在客戶都有一個租戶經紀人，他們希望確保在告訴客戶空間可用時，空間已經準備好。

So now with finished options or second-generation options, they don't want to -- their avoidance is we don't want to say your -- Craig, your space will be ready in June, and it's not ready until August. So they've had the luxury of being able to wait and kind of during the peak their fear was missing out on space. So it really ramped up our own development because everything we were building was finishing out. We've always underwritten a year to lease up.

因此，現在有了完成的選項或第二代選項，他們不想 - 他們的迴避是我們不想說你的 - 克雷格，你的空間將在六月準備好，並且直到八月才准備好。因此，他們有足夠的時間等待，而在高峰期，他們擔心錯過空間。因此，它確實促進了我們自己的發展，因為我們正在建造的一切都已完成。我們一直以來都承保一年的租賃。

The good news, unlike, say, the GFC, we have names and prospects there as one of our guys said, I would offer more free rent, but I don't know who to offer it, too. Here, we do have tenants and active negotiations, it just takes -- decision-making has run up. I've seen some graphs from one of the brokerage groups where it was about nine months to make a decision. I think it's first half of the year slowly turning. For the first time, I can think of a couple of spaces we've had in the last 30 to 45 days where tenants have lost out on space. And I always fill for that tenant that didn't make a decision in time and the space is gone, but we've not seen that in at 18 to 24 months.

好消息是，與全球金融危機不同，我們在那裡有一些名字和前景，正如我們的一位員工所說，我會提供更多的免費租金，但我不知道該向誰提供。在這裡，我們確實有租戶和積極的談判，只是需要——決策已經完成。我看過某個經紀集團的一些圖表，其中顯示做出決定大約需要九個月的時間。我認為上半年正在慢慢轉變。這是我第一次想起過去 30 到 45 天內，我們有幾個空間的租戶失去了空間。我總是會替那些沒有及時做出決定而導致空間消失的租戶填補空缺，但是我們在 18 到 24 個月內沒有見過這種情況。

So I think given where supply is an 8-year low and vacancy really low, that it's going to cause those tenants to fill a little more sense of urgency. And then on our -- again, that's our opportunity set. If I think of this year, really at one. I think we budgeted what we expect will happen as things get better and signed and move in the back half of the year. We feel good about the activity today. If it happens earlier, we'll build more. And if it doesn't, we'll do what we did last year and develop a little less.

因此我認為，考慮到供應量處於八年來的最低水平，而空置率也確實很低，這將導致這些租戶更加有緊迫感。然後我們—再說一次，這是我們的機會。如果我回想今年，真的就一年了。我想我們已經預算了隨著情況好轉以及簽署協議並在下半年採取行動預計會發生什麼。我們對今天的活動感到非常高興。如果這種情況能早點發生，我們就會再建造更多。如果沒有的話，我們就會像去年一樣，減少開發量。

And even on, say, the contents, which is, I guess, for other listeners, 300,000 feet in Charlotte, and we had Starship, which is 260,000 feet in South Bay, the ports of LA and Long Beach that went we had bankruptcy issues both in fourth quarter. So we don't have that many large tenants, but we have 20 tenants over, say, 200,000 feet and a little bit of a perfect storm where two of them went bankrupt both in fourth quarter, struggled during the year and then went bankrupt.

甚至就內容而言，我猜對於其他聽眾來說，夏洛特有 300,000 英尺，我們有 Starship，位於南灣 260,000 英尺，洛杉磯和長灘的港口都在第四季度遭遇破產問題。因此，我們的大型租戶並不多，但我們有 20 個租戶，面積超過 200,000 英尺，而且情況有點糟糕，其中兩個租戶在第四季度都破產了，在年內陷入困境，然後破產了。

But we've got good activity without getting too far over my skis, that we've got the good buildings, and we've got a really good team on each of them. And there, we have active negotiations on both spaces and if I cross not as soon as we get anything signed, you'll hear me yell. We'll put something out but I feel optimistic -- cautiously optimistic on both spaces given the activity we have today, and that's kind of how we're viewing the year. Look, I love the tours. We just need to get people to the cash register.

但是，我們的活動很順利，沒有超出我的範圍，我們擁有優質的建築，並且在每個建築上都有一支非常優秀的團隊。並且，我們在兩個領域都進行了積極的談判，如果我們簽署任何協議後我不立即過關，你就會聽到我大喊大叫。我們會推出一些東西，但考慮到我們今天的活動，我感到樂觀——對這兩個領域都持謹慎樂觀的態度，這就是我們對今年的看法。瞧，我喜歡旅遊。我們只需要讓人們到收銀台。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Welcome.

歡迎。

Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

托馬斯 (Todd Thomas)，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Hi, good morning, this is, AJ Peak calling on for Todd. So just to piggyback real quick off of Craig's question. Could you just quantify a little bit the development leasing in regards. So I think back in November, you said that the decision making is taking 15 to 16 months. Previously, it had been within that 12-month time frame. Could you just quantify? Or is it still kind of that 15, 16-month time frame?

大家早安，我是 AJ Peak，代表 Todd 來拜訪。因此，只是想快速回答一下 Craig 的問題。能否稍微量化一下開發租賃的情況？所以我回想起去年 11 月您說過的決策需要 15 到 16 個月。此前，該期限為 12 個月。你能量化一下嗎？或者它仍然是 15 或 16 個月的時間範圍？

Good morning, AJ. It's more similar. I think it's slowly turning and what's been, I guess, telling to us a little bit in our -- maybe our development pipeline really is Page 11 and 12 in our supplement. But when I look at what we've finished for the last couple of years, even with kind of an elongated completion time where things -- we'll underwrite 12 months, but maybe they went from taking six -- to 15 to 16. What we delivered last year came in at a 7.8% yield, which is higher than we underwrote, even though it took -- had more carry on it.

早上好，AJ。比較相似。我認為它正在慢慢轉變，我想，這告訴我們一些事情——也許我們的開發管道真的就在我們補充的第 11 頁和第 12 頁。但是，當我回顧過去幾年我們完成的工作時，即使完成時間有所延長，我們預計需要 12 個月，但可能從 6 個月增加到 15 到 16 個月。我們去年的收益率達到了 7.8%，高於我們承保的收益率，儘管我們承擔了更多的責任。

So it's not that we're getting so much pushback on rents and TI and kind of economics. It is just getting someone to say we're ready to go. Renewals as a percentage of leases signed are up nationally. If you -- they're kind of in the 30-something percent where they were running in the 20s for the last, call it, four to six quarters.

因此，我們在租金、TI 和經濟方面並沒有遭遇太大的阻力。這只是讓某人說我們已準備好出發。全國範圍內續約佔簽訂租約的百分比有所上升。如果你 — — 他們現在的比例大概在 30% 左右，而在過去四到六個季度裡，他們的比例一直在 20% 左右。

So I think that will come down. And it feels like it's turning, but we're in early innings on that turn. And I think it will take people when they start to feel like we need the space. And if we don't make a decision, we're going to miss out and that's really what happened last time. I don't think we'll get to the frenzy we had last time. It led to some of the challenges, I think, that we have in Los Angeles today and it was really the outlier on that kind of frenzy and everybody got into industrial development.

所以我認為這個數字會下降。感覺好像正在轉彎，但我們正處於轉彎的早期階段。我認為，當人們開始覺得我們需要空間時，他們就會採取行動。如果我們不做出決定，我們就會錯過機會，而上次就發生了這種情況。我認為我們不會出現上次那樣的瘋狂。我認為，它導致了我們今天在洛杉磯面臨的一些挑戰，它確實是那種狂熱的異常現象，每個人都參與了工業發展。

But hopefully, it doesn't get overheated, but it feels like -- look, we're in a cyclical business, it slowed down, and it feels like this year is turning and we've been seeing that activity in the last couple of couple -- call it, mid fourth quarter through today. We're happy with how the year started. We're a little ahead of where we thought we would be, but and I hope we can keep that momentum up later in the year.

但希望它不會過熱，但感覺就像——看，我們處於一個週期性的業務中，它的速度放緩了，感覺今年正在轉變，我們在過去幾年一直看到這種活動——可以說是從第四季度中期到今天。我們對新的一年的開始感到很高興。我們比我們預期的要領先一點，但我希望我們能在今年晚些時候保持這種勢頭。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just real quick, how are you thinking about rent change in '25? I guess, what sort of range would you expect to achieve on new and renewal leasing? And how far through the 2025 lease expirations are you? And what has rent changed looking like so far year-to-date on that pool.

好的。這很有幫助。然後很快問一下，您認為 25 年的租金變動怎麼樣？我想，您期望新租賃和續租租賃的範圍能達到什麼程度？您的 2025 年租約還有多久到期？今年迄今為止，該游泳池的租金有何變化？

Yes. In terms of -- and I'll let Marshall maybe touch on what he's thinking on rent changes for the year, but I'd point out that our exploration schedule for the year. We've decreased that even since putting the supplemental together. That's down to just 8% turn remaining for the year of 2025 expirations. We report rent change as signed leases so a lot of the lifting on the '25 expirations and renewing those tenants occurred in '24. As we sign those leases, we reported the results.

是的。就這一點而言，我會讓馬歇爾談談他對今年租金變化的看法，但我要指出的是，我們今年的勘探計劃。自從將補充資料放在一起以來，我們已經減少了這一數量。這意味著 2025 年到期的周轉率僅剩下 8%。我們將租金變更報告為簽署的租約，因此許多 25 年到期的租約解除和租戶的續約都發生在 24 年。當我們簽署這些租約時，我們報告了結果。

I would just say we've been pretty consistent here. It's plateaued, but it's at a very good level. We still are seeing strength in our rental rates, running that 50% gap increase, and we're seeing that beginning of the year pretty consistent with that. So we're not feeling headwinds to Marshall's point earlier, it's been more once you get somebody that needs the space and you get the foot trap somebody committed getting the rate that you need really hasn't been the obstacle because of the tight supply is just getting the traction and the showings increase, which is good to see the signs of that picking up.

我只想說我們在這方面表現得相當一致。雖然已經穩定下來，但已經處於非常好的水平。我們的租金率仍然保持強勁，漲幅達到 50%，而且我們看到年初的租金率與這一水平相當。因此，我們並沒有感受到馬歇爾之前所指出的阻力，更重要的是，一旦你找到了需要空間的人，並且你找到了有人承諾獲得你需要的速度，這實際上並不是障礙，因為供應緊張只是獲得了牽引力，展示量增加了，看到這種情況正在好轉的跡像是件好事。

But -- so we're seeing -- what I would describe maybe is on the average at the end of the year, if you tell me it would be slightly below what we ran in the last couple of years, that wouldn't surprise me, but it still feels like that's a pretty strong category of rent change that is.

但是 - 所以我們看到的 - 我所描述的可能是，在年底的平均水平上，如果您告訴我它會略低於我們過去幾年的水平，那不會讓我感到驚訝，但仍然感覺這是一個相當強勁的租金變化類別。

Alright perfect. Thank you, guys.

好的，完美。謝謝你們。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Rich Anderson, Wedbush.

里奇安德森，韋德布希。

Okay. Just a five-part question here, just kidding. I'll tell the line. Marshall, I just want to make sure I better understand sort of the cadence of your developments and the $300 million of starts. In the past, one development informs the next, just from the -- on the ground activity that you saw and it gives you the confidence to go forward. Is that sort of not exactly happening yet, but what you see is so much less supply.

好的。這裡只有一個由五個部分組成的問題，只是開個玩笑。我會告訴這條線。馬歇爾，我只是想確保我能更了解你們的發展節奏和 3 億美元的啟動資金。在過去，一個發展會為下一個發展提供參考，僅僅從你所看到的實地活動來看，它就會給你繼續前進的信心。這種事情還沒有真正發生，但你看到的是供應量少了很多。

So you want to be in front of it before and prepared for that. perhaps to start to come together later this year. So is it sort of like sitting in the abstract a little bit right now in terms of how you typically start developments but you feel like it's going to come eventually. So you're sort of talking about starts in the $300 million range. Do I have that kind of right? Maybe you can just sort of fill in the blanks.

因此，您要提前做好準備。或許將在今年晚些時候開始走到一起。所以，就您通常如何開始開發而言，現在是否有點像處於抽象的狀態，但您覺得它最終會出現。所以您說的起始價大概在 3 億美元左右。我有這樣的權利嗎？或許您只需填補空白即可。

Good morning Rich, I'll give you a 5-part answer. And you're right, it's mainly the former. Look, I think one of the beauties of EastGroup at a pretty simple model, so people like Brent and I can manage the company. But once the building is pretty much finished, we'll build the next one, and that's what we stuck with when things are good and last year when things were a little slower what we started in fourth quarter.

早安，Rich，我將給你分成 5 個部分的答案。你說得對，主要是前者。你看，我認為 EastGroup 的優點之一是其模式非常簡單，所以像布倫特和我這樣的人可以管理公司。但是，一旦這棟建築基本上完工，我們就會建造下一棟建築，這就是我們在一切順利時堅持的做法，去年一切進展緩慢時，我們在第四季就開始這樣做了。

And you're right, it really is on the ground. It was submarket by submarket. We started several buildings in fourth quarter, even though things were slow, but of the 5, one was the second building in Tampa because the first building, the team got 100% leased. And then the other were markets where -- and similar in Greenville, South Carolina, Greenville, Spartanburg, where we didn't have development and active development.

你說得對，它確實就在地面上。這是逐個子市場進行的。我們在第四季度開始建造幾棟建築，儘管進展緩慢，但在這五棟建築中，有一棟是坦帕的第二棟建築，因為第一棟建築的租賃率達到了 100%。然後其他的市場是——與南卡羅來納州的格林維爾、斯帕坦堡類似，我們在那裡沒有開發和積極開發。

And we certainly don't want to lose and that we've lost within our top 10, we lost one of our spaces with the tenant because they outgrew us and we didn't have the development ready in time to accommodate them. So it's mainly that pulling the next ticket as inventory starts to decline in that submarket.

我們當然不想失去，我們在前十名中失去了一個租戶空間，因為他們的發展速度超過了我們，而我們沒有及時準備好開發來容納他們。因此，當該子市場的庫存開始下降時，主要是拉動下一張票。

And then a little bit where maybe you're right, we're back end of the year, that's maybe the science where there's a little bit more alchemy to it is that we do think and we don't want to get too far out ahead but so many of the private developers have been sidelined and still need to go tie up the site, zoning and permitting as harder than it's ever been for industrial today. So that will take them time.

然後有一點也許你是對的，我們在今年年底回來了，這也許是一門科學，其中有更多的煉金術，我們確實在思考，我們不想走得太遠，但很多私人開發商已經被邊緣化，仍然需要去控制場地，分區和許可比今天的工業任何時候都更難。所以這需要一些時間。

And we think there will be a period especially early on in the Shallow Bay world where there's not much private competition, and we want to be able to one to accommodate our own tenants growth or the tenants that are around the corner and down the street. So there's a little bit where I think the market will give us a nudge on development starts towards the end of the year. And the team in the field feels like we're going to finish Phase II, roll into Phase III and that type of thing.

我們認為，特別是在淺灣地區的早期階段，會有一段時期私人競爭不多，我們希望能夠適應我們自己的租戶成長或街角和街對面的租戶。因此，我認為市場會在年底前給我們一些推動，推動開發開始。現場團隊感覺我們將完成第二階段，進入第三階段之類的。

So that's where the $300 million, again, it's back-end weighted. We realize we've got -- it's pretty easy to see our task at hand looking at our under-construction schedule, there's some number -- there's a lot of space there, but that's our that's our opportunity. If we can get out ahead of that and have some leases come in earlier, given the activity than what's in the budget, but we'll do our best and the teams on it.

所以這 3 億美元又是後端加權的。我們意識到我們已經——從我們的施工進度表來看，很容易看出我們手頭上的任務有很多——那裡有很多空間，但這是我們的機會。如果我們能夠提前採取行動，並提前獲得一些租約，考慮到活動量，這將比預算中規定的要多，但我們會盡最大努力和團隊一起努力。

But we'll follow the field and when the market is saying it wants more supply. But I think you're right. Our sense is there's a squeeze coming. And I've been predicting it too early. I would have thought it would have happened last year. So I've been wrong before, but it feels like coming a little bit late back half of this year.

但我們會關注該領域，並關注市場需要更多供應的情況。但我認為你是對的。我們感覺到擠壓即將來臨。我對此預測得太早了。我原本以為這會在去年發生。所以我以前也犯過錯，但我覺得今年半年來得有點晚了。

Okay great, thanks.

好的，太好了，謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Nicholas Thillman, Baird.

尼古拉斯·蒂爾曼，貝爾德。

Thank you. Maybe I just wanted to touch a little bit on the pickup in leasing costs in the quarter. Obviously, some of it could be related to just mix with the more new leasing. Wanted to get a little bit more color on that? Was there any individual leases that we're pulling that number up? And then also, Brent, maybe just any comments you have on expectations for retention in 2025? Thank you.

謝謝。也許我只是想稍微談談本季租賃成本的上升。顯然，其中一些可能與更多新租賃混合有關。想了解更多顏色嗎？是否有任何單獨的租賃使得該數字上升？另外，布倫特，您對 2025 年的保留期望有什麼評論嗎？謝謝。

Yes. I'll jump in, Nick. If you look over the last couple of years, we've been pretty consistent, looking back at our cost per lease per year of lease being around just under $1 around $0.90 or so for '22, '23, that for the year increased to $1.08. It's pretty equal between the tenant improvement and leasing committed component and really not so much specific leases, Nick, but it's really a combination of inflationary pressure on TI is just simply more expensive to build on a per square foot basis, office component, repaint (inaudible).

是的。我會加入的，尼克。如果回顧過去幾年，我們一直保持相當穩定的狀態，回顧一下我們每年每筆租賃的成本，2022 年和 2023 年約為 1 美元左右，約為 0.90 美元左右，而今年則增加到 1.08 美元。租戶改善和租賃承諾部分之間的差異相當大，實際上並沒有那麼多具體的租賃，尼克，但這實際上是通貨膨脹壓力對 TI 的綜合影響，按每平方英尺計算，辦公室組件、重新粉刷的成本更高（聽不清楚）。

And we've been very thankful. We talked about this 50% increase in rents, that goes hand in hand with you apply a percentage of leasing commission to that rent those have been going up with that as well. So I would say that's just been operational, nothing specific there. I think if inflation can settle out and I hope that the leasing commission side continues to tick up some. It would basically mean that we're pushing rents and you're applying the same percentage to it, and that goes up. But nothing there.

我們非常感激。我們討論過租金上漲 50%，這與向租金中加一定比例的租賃佣金有關，租金也會隨之上漲。所以我想說這只是運作而已，沒有什麼具體內容。我認為，如果通貨膨脹能夠穩定下來，我希望租賃佣金方面能夠繼續上漲。這基本上意味著我們正在提高租金，而你則應用相同的百分比，然後租金就會上漲。但那裡什麼都沒有。

We had a good year, a good fourth quarter at 78% retention for the last couple of years that we've been right at two third as an average. We don't have anything at this point that would make us think that, that's a pretty standard run rate. It wouldn't be uncommon to see that get in the 70s probably but I guess I'd take this time to point this out. We don't have any specific large tenant that we're worried about per se in terms of a known vacate or that type of thing. Obviously, we have a couple of the spaces that went vacant in the fourth quarter that Marshall talked about.

我們今年的業績表現不錯，第四季的業績表現也不錯，過去幾年的保留率達到 78%，而平均保留率一直維持在三分之二左右。目前，我們還沒有任何證據表明，這是一個相當標準的運行率。看到這種情況在 70 年代可能並不罕見，但我想我需要花點時間來指出這一點。我們並沒有擔心任何特定的大型租戶，例如他們是否會搬離或類似的事情。顯然，正如馬歇爾所說，我們在第四節有幾個空位。

But so I would expect a similar cadence across the board on all those topics to what we've experienced the last couple of years.

但我希望所有這些主題的討論節奏都與我們過去幾年經歷的類似。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, thanks, Nick.

是的，謝謝，尼克。

Eric Borden, BMO Capital Markets.

Eric Borden，BMO 資本市場。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Brent, I just wanted to go back to your comments around the bad debt guidance assumption of 30 basis points. It sounds like that is just general conservatism for the year? Or correct me if I'm wrong, is there any specific tenant that, that was allocated to? And then I was just curious if I get your thoughts on your current thinking for lease termination income for the year. Thank you.

嘿，大家早安。布倫特，我只是想回到你關於 30 個基點的壞帳指導假設的評論。聽起來這只是今年普遍的保守主義？或者如果我錯了請糾正我，是否有分配給特定的租戶？然後我只是好奇您是否對今年的租賃終止收入有自己的看法。謝謝。

Sure. And we did get some inquiries about -- I guess I'll just address this here about not having the specific line items of term fee income and bad debt that we've had in the past. We have pulled some specific line items of that back and more to come later in the quarter, but us and some of our key peers are continuing to work on our harmonization efforts. It may predate some of you, but going back to 2017, us and some of our peers synchronized all of our proactively aligned our definitions of how we define things and report things for non-GAAP measures and kind of bruising that up here lately with the group, we began to realize we're the only group that was specifically aligning those out.

當然。我們確實收到了一些詢問——我想我在這裡只想談談我們沒有過去的學期費用收入和壞帳的具體項目。我們已經撤回了一些具體的項目，並將在本季稍後推出更多項目，但我們和我們的一些主要同行仍在繼續致力於協調工作。它可能早於你們中的一些人，但回顧 2017 年，我們和我們的一些同行同步了我們所有的主動定義，即我們如何定義事物並報告非 GAAP 指標，並且最近與團隊一起對此進行了調整，我們開始意識到我們是唯一一個專門對這些進行調整的團隊。

But looking at '25, the 30 basis points and that comes in at around $2.2 million or so that we have dialed in pretty evenly through the year. It's not tenant specific. That's actually about one third less than what we incurred in '24.

但看看'25，30個基點，也就是大約220萬美元左右，我們全年的撥付相當均勻。這不是針對特定租戶的。這實際上比我們24年的支出減少了約三分之一。

A couple of things to note there. I would describe '24 as a frustrating year from an uncollectible rent standpoint. Our watch list remain very constant and very low and moderate, but we had four tenants that really drove the bad debt, one specific, the Starship tenant fourth quarter that wound up being about 30% of our bad debt for the year with that one tenant out of a portfolio of over 400 different tenants.

有幾件事需要注意。從無法收回租金的角度來看，我認為 24 年是令人沮喪的一年。我們的觀察名單保持非常穩定，並且處於非常低和中等的水平，但是我們有四個租戶是壞賬的真正推動者，其中一個是特定的，即第四季度的 Starship 租戶，其壞賬占我們全年壞賬的 30% 左右，而這個租戶是我們超過 400 個不同租戶的投資組合中的一位。

And then about -- the top four tenants comprised about 70% of our bad debt. And as Marshall touched on, it's atypical for us, but some of the tenants in the larger spaces contributed to that. I would just note -- so we're we anticipate sort of a similar watch list. We just aren't budgeting or hoping for not anticipating the stars aligning on some of those bigger tenants coming through there.

然後大約——前四大租戶約占我們壞帳的 70%。正如馬歇爾所提到的，這對我們來說並不常見，但一些較大空間的租戶對此負有責任。我只是想指出——我們預計會出現類似的觀察名單。我們只是沒有預算或希望不預測到一些較大的租戶會有什麼好運。

And I would just point out, as of today, our 17 or 18 tenants that are above 200,000 square feet in our portfolio are all current. And four tenants that did drive that last year in one way, shape or form, we've resolved those issues and those aren't lingering and going to drag into uncollectability into this year. So with all that said, yes, we're about $2.2 million dialed in for bad debt for the year, about $1.1 million of term fee income. That's not specific to a tenant either. That's just what we have dialed in.

我只想指出，截至今天，我們投資組合中面積超過 20 萬平方英尺的 17 或 18 個租戶都是現有租戶。去年有四個租戶以某種方式推動了這一進程，我們已經解決了這些問題，這些問題不會持續存在，也不會拖到今年無法收回。所以綜上所述，是的，我們今年的壞帳準備金約為 220 萬美元，學期費用收入約為 110 萬美元。這也並不是特定於租戶的。這正是我們撥打的電話。

And so when you net the two, you're really at about $0.02 a share net, again, another reason that we kind of pulled those line items back. But the net between the term fee income and the bad debt, we've got dialed in as a couple of cents a share. So we're cautiously optimistic from what we're seeing so far and having cleaned some of those troubled tenants up that we're looking for more of a historical run rate at that 30 basis points this year.

因此，當你將這兩項加起來時，你實際上的淨利潤約為每股 0.02 美元，這也是我們將這些項目撤回的另一個原因。但是，期限費用收入和壞帳之間的淨額，我們已經算出每股幾美分。因此，從目前看到的情況來看，我們持謹慎樂觀的態度，並且已經清理了部分問題租戶，我們預計今年的運行率將接近歷史最高水平，即 30 個基點。

Thank you I appreciate it. I'll leave it there.

謝謝，我很感激。我就把它留在那裡。

Thanks, Eric.

謝謝，埃里克。

Lane Heck, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的萊恩‧赫克 (Lane Heck)。

Great, thanks. Good morning. We saw some interesting and maybe counterintuitive moves in the operating portfolio lease rates in some of your markets quarter-over-quarter. So I was hoping you could comment on the decreases in Texas markets, San Antonio and Fort Worth in particular, and then increases in California where San Francisco, LA and San Diego saw a pretty significant positive movement, whether those are driven by specific situations or be more indicative of any trends that you're seeing in those markets?

太好了，謝謝。早安.我們發現，你們部分市場的經營組合租賃利率較上月出現了一些有趣甚至違反直覺的變化。所以我希望您能評論一下德克薩斯州市場（特別是聖安東尼奧和沃斯堡）的下滑，以及加利福尼亞州市場（其中舊金山、洛杉磯和聖地亞哥）的增長，這些市場的積極變化非常明顯，這些都是由特定情況推動的，還是更能說明您在這些市場看到的任何趨勢？

Blaine, it's Marshall. I'm kind of organized it. In San Francisco, the team did a good job of backfilling some vacancies there. So we're -- really, for the moment, when I think of -- as I think of California, we've got and we've talked about the 260,000 feet in Dominguez is a vacancy. And then we've got -- which was another bankruptcy 68,000 feet in North County, San Diego. And those are really our main vacancies are kind of our task at hand this year. We're pretty full at the moment in California. There's a lot of tenants, and there will be some moving parts throughout the year. So that feels pretty good.

布萊恩，我是馬歇爾。我把它組織好了。在舊金山，該團隊很好地填補了那裡的一些空缺。所以，實際上，就目前而言，當我想到加州時，我們已經討論過多明格斯的 260,000 英尺是空置的。然後我們發現 — — 聖地牙哥北縣 68,000 英尺處又有一棟破產建築。這些確實是我們的主要空缺職位，也是我們今年的任務。目前，加州已經人滿為患。這裡有很多租戶，而且全年都會有一些活動。感覺非常好。

Charlotte, as I think about bankruptcy, still it took a pretty good hit on its occupancy in fourth quarter, but that was really the 300,000-foot cons bankruptcy. At the moment, our prospect list for both is they could both be subdivided into really two in LA and maybe three tenants in Charlotte, we're talking to one tenant in each location. So we'll get those backfilled. It's probably more a function of just that space and that market are really in each of those cases, is a perfect storm, two big tenants went bankrupt and pulled our vacancy down.

夏洛特，當我想到破產時，它在第四季度的入住率仍然受到了相當大的打擊，但這實際上是 30 萬英尺的破產。目前，我們對這兩家公司的潛在客戶名單是，它們都可以細分為洛杉磯的兩個租戶和夏洛特的三個租戶，我們正在與每個地點的一名租戶進行洽談。所以我們會把這些補齊。這可能更多的是空間和市場的作用，在每種情況下，都是一場完美風暴，兩個大租戶破產了，並拉低了我們的空置率。

And our deliveries and some of the Texas markets, I'm thinking like in Austin, for example, we delivered Stonefield. It's just south of Austin and Hays County good location, good building. It's near the buildings we acquired last year around the corner from those. We like the market. If you said what markets have you watched the developments supply more closely, we would say Austin and Phoenix. And so we're kind of caught there. And we like Austin a lot long term. That Hays County market has a lot of supply right now.

我們的交付和一些德克薩斯州的市場，我想就像在奧斯汀，例如，我們交付了 Stonefield。它位於奧斯汀和海斯縣南部，地理位置優越，建築優美。它就在我們去年收購的建築物附近。我們喜歡這個市場。如果問您最密切關注哪些市場的發展供應，我們會說奧斯汀和菲尼克斯。所以我們有點陷入困境了。從長遠來看，我們非常喜歡奧斯汀。海斯縣市場目前有大量供應。

So when we delivered there that pulled that vacancy rate down. So those are kind of some of the moving parts and then others are just kind of tenants moving backward. We've got some space out in Fort Worth. It's not a big denominator in Fort Worth, but in our Park North project, we'll get it [laid] and we're making headway out there. But it's really a space here or maybe a long-winded way of saying a space here or a space there and the markets kind of jumped back kind of like they did in San Francisco, one or two tenants can be the needle pretty materially within our portfolio.

因此，當我們交付時，空置率就下降了。因此，這些就像是一些移動的部分，其他的就像是租戶向後移動的部分。我們在沃斯堡有一些空間。這不是沃斯堡的一大特點，但在我們的北公園項目中，我們會把它鋪設好，而且我們正在那裡取得進展。但這實際上是這裡的一個空間，或者可能用冗長的方式說這裡的一個空間或那裡的一個空間，市場有點像在舊金山那樣回升，一兩個租戶可以成為我們投資組合中相當重要的針。

Okay. Great. Sounds like more specific situations, which makes sense. I'll respectfully leave it there.

好的。偉大的。聽起來像是更具體的情況，這很有道理。我會很尊重地把它留在那裡。

Okay, thanks for articulating it much more concise and for leaving it there. Thanks.

好的，感謝您更加簡潔地表達這一點並將其留在那裡。謝謝。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫·薩誇（Steve Sakwa），Evercore ISI。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. I was wondering if you could just provide a little commentary around the pricing on the acquisitions in the fourth quarter. And maybe just the capital flows that you guys are seeing. And I know acquisition cap rates can kind of be all over the board. But do you think about unlet IRRs? And where do you think unlevered IRRs are for industrial today? Thanks.

是的，謝謝。早安.我想知道您是否可以對第四季度的收購定​​價提供一些評論。或許只是你們看到的資本流動。我知道收購資本化率可能會有所不同。但你有考慮過未出租的 IRR 嗎？您認為目前工業的無槓桿內部報酬率處於什麼水準？謝謝。

Hey, good morning, Steve. Steve, maybe a couple of thoughts. I'll say that the team did a good job of finding these three acquisitions, each was a little bit different and that starting in '23 and through '24, a number of the acquisitions we bought were really the second time it came to market that something that happened, it came back to market. And that's a little bit what happened in the Phoenix or that is what happened in the Phoenix acquisition. It's a good infill site [Mike Sako], who runs Arizona for us among his markets, really, it approached the seller and stayed in touch.

嘿，早上好，史蒂夫。史蒂夫，也許我有一些想法。我想說的是，團隊在尋找這三次收購方面做得很好，每一次收購都有點不同，從'23年開始到'24年，我們購買的許多收購實際上都是第二次進入市場，發生了一些事情，它又回到了市場上。這有點像菲尼克斯發生的事情，或者說這就是菲尼克斯收購案中發生的事情。這是一個很好的填充站點 [Mike Sako]，他在我們的市場中負責亞利桑那州的運營，實際上，它聯繫了賣家並保持了聯繫。

And we were able to tie it up kind of sticking within our confidentiality agreement, a little better mining that on all three, they're all what we liked about Atlanta, Dallas at DFW, it's the same seller we acquired. We're right at the cargo terminal, what we like about it at DFW and just to the north of us are Frisco and some pretty strong higher-end residential communities. So those buildings can serve either direction.

而且我們能夠在遵守保密協議的前提下，更好地挖掘這三個機場的特點，它們都是我們喜歡亞特蘭大、達拉斯和 DFW 的機場，它們是我們收購的同一個賣家。我們就在貨運站，我們喜歡 DFW，我們北邊就是弗里斯科和一些相當高端的住宅社區。因此這些建築物可以服務於任一方向。

We've got over 2.5 million square feet in that submarket. And strategically, we were able to buy the buildings right across the street from four others we own. So in terms of accommodating tenant growth, we like that. Blended on a net effective rate, we're probably -- so maybe on a straight-line rent, we averaged a little north of a six yield. I think those were all above market in hindsight, we saw the acquisition market really tighten up. The second half of last year, surprisingly fast at least to me. I would say we saw cap rates sub-4 and well into the 4s. So we were happy we got these have kind of stabilized yield is probably in the mid-7s on the three we bought, which again, I think is much better than where the market is, and we started -- we were able to buy things that were a little bit distressed, whether it was land or acquisitions. We're not seeing those opportunities right now.

我們在該子市場擁有超過 250 萬平方英尺的空間。從戰略上來說，我們能夠買下我們擁有的另外四棟建築對面的建築。因此，從適應租戶成長的角度來看，我們喜歡這樣做。以淨有效利率計算，我們可能—也許以直線租金計算，我們的平均收益率略高於六倍。我認為事後看來這些都高於市場水平，我們看到收購市場確實收緊了。去年下半年，至少對我來說，速度出奇地快。我想說的是，我們看到資本化率低於 4 且遠高於 4。因此，我們很高興獲得了這些穩定的收益率，我們購買的三種債券的收益率可能都在 7% 左右，我認為這比市場現狀要好得多，而且我們開始 - 我們能夠購買一些有點陷入困境的東西，無論是土地還是收購。我們現在還沒有看到這些機會。

And if we look at the cash return immediately, what the straight line or capital returns are since that's what we'll report and then what the mark-to-market is. And ideally, that mark-to-market the first few years because I respect the people and we do look at an unlevered IRR, but as our founder used to [care], I've never met a pro forma, I didn't like. When you get to a 10-year IRR, there are so many assumptions. And I think if I had run my best at 10-IRR in LA, for example, 24 months ago, I would have missed it terribly.

如果我們立即查看現金回報，那麼直線回報或資本回報是多少，因為這就是我們要報告的，然後是市價是多少。理想情況下，最初幾年會按市價計價，因為我尊重員工，而且我們確實會關注無槓桿內部收益率 (IRR)，但正如我們的創始人過去所關心的那樣，我從未見過形式發票，我不喜歡。當你得到 10 年 IRR 時，會有很多假設。而且我認為，如果我在 24 個月前在洛杉磯的 10-IRR 比賽中跑出了自己的最佳成績，那麼我就會錯失良機。

So we'll try to stay just within the headlines. And I also think one of the other beauties that industrial having worked in other sectors is our capital needs are so much less than, say office or retail, and so that helps you not lessen that need. We're not replacing elevators or redoing the lobby or some of the things you run into on retail in terms of CapEx. So it's easier for us. We'll we won't run an IRR because we wouldn't have gotten it right on a lot of our acquisitions, but we will look at that first handful of years and what can go right and what can go wrong.

因此我們會盡量只報道頭條新聞。而且我還認為，工業在其他領域工作過的另一個好處是，我們的資本需求比辦公室或零售等要少得多，因此這有助於我們不會減少這種需求。就資本支出而言，我們不會更換電梯或重建大廳或您在零售業中遇到的一些事情。這樣對我們來說就更容易了。我們不會運行 IRR，因為我們在許多收購中都不會正確，但我們會研究最初幾年，看看哪些可能正確，哪些可能出錯。

Thank you. That's it for me.

謝謝。對我來說就是這樣了。

Okay, thanks Steve.

好的，謝謝史蒂夫。

[Nikita Bali, JPMorgan].

[Nikita Bali，摩根大通]。

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Quick one. What is the rough ballpark expectation for '25 market plan growth in your portfolio? Not the spread, but the actual market plan that you think may be able to achieve in the properties and for your assets? Is it roughly flattish or low single digits this year?

嘿，大家下午好。快一點。您對投資組合中 25 個市場計劃的成長預期大致是多少？不是利差，而是您認為在房產和資產方面可能實現的實際市場計劃？今年的成長速度大致持平或為個位數偏低嗎？

Yeah. This is Marshall. I would almost -- I could bifurcate our portfolio between East of California, which is everything and in California, I think the LA market, especially is still stabilizing San Diego and San Franco. We're a little more stable, but those are the markets where the only markets, thankfully, that we've actually seen negative absorption.

是的。這是馬歇爾。我幾乎可以將我們的投資組合分為加州東部和加州的全部，我認為洛杉磯市場，尤其是聖地牙哥和舊金山市場仍然穩定。我們稍微穩定一些，但幸運的是，這些市場是我們真正看到負吸收的唯一市場。

And so rents maybe are still finding their footing in those markets. That said, all told, and certainly, Nevada, Arizona, East, I would expect -- and our expectations are probably inflation a little ahead of inflationary rate for the first six to eight months of the year.

因此，租金在這些市場可能仍在尋找立足點。話雖如此，總而言之，我預計內華達州、亞利桑那州和東部的通貨膨脹率可能會略高於今年前六到八個月的通貨膨脹率。

And then I think depending where demand is, given the lower such a low supply level and such a low availability rate in our product type, but nationally is at least a vacancy -- direct vacancy about 4%. So I think there's a chance we could have some higher level rent pick up for the back half of the year heading into 2026, given that it's going to take especially private peers, a little while to get mobilized and start delivering product again.

然後我認為這取決於需求在哪裡，鑑於我們的產品類型的供應水平和可用率較低，但全國範圍內至少有一個空缺 - 直接空缺約為 4％。因此，我認為，到 2026 年下半年，租金有可能出現更高水準的上漲，因為私營部門尤其是私營企業需要一段時間才能動員起來並再次開始交付產品。

So I think we'll have a little above inflation for the first half of the year. And then I think if demand keeps at the pace, it's currently at, it could get more mid-single digits for the back, call it, three to six months of the year.

因此我認為今年上半年通膨率將略高於通膨率。然後我認為，如果需求維持目前的速度，那麼在今年下半年，也就是三至六個月內，其成長率可能會達到中等個位數。

But the Southern California is probably still flat to negative for the full year, right?

但南加州全年可能仍會持平或呈負成長，對嗎？

Yes. I think we -- really LA, if I could pull San Diego out of that because it's just a little bit different in Orange County is a little bit stronger, but LA still feels like it's it could be moving backwards a little bit. We don't have a lot of data compared to our peers there, but that market really took off at a crazy rate faster than any of our other markets, and it seems to be the market that's going backwards pretty dramatically and still has had negative absorption pretty maturely for the year and doesn't quite have its footing. So I do think rents are probably still moving in a negative direction in LA. That's a big market, but that's our sense.

是的。我認為我們——真的是洛杉磯，如果我可以把聖地亞哥從這種狀況中拉出來，因為奧蘭治縣的情況略有不同，而且更強大一些，但洛杉磯仍然感覺它可能在稍微倒退。與那裡的同行相比，我們沒有太多的數據，但那個市場確實以比我們任何其他市場都要快的速度瘋狂地起飛，而且它似乎正在大幅倒退，並且今年的負吸收仍然相當成熟，還沒有站穩腳跟。因此我確實認為洛杉磯的租金可能仍呈下降趨勢。這是一個很大的市場，但這就是我們的感覺。

Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Michael Carroll。

Yeah, thanks. I guess, Marshall, I wanted to touch back on your prepared remarks that you're seeing an uptick in prospect active. I mean can you give us some color on what this means? Is it just that you're seeing increased poor activity? Or are these prospective tenants further along like you're trading paper and they're now ready to make decisions where before they weren't?

是的，謝謝。馬歇爾，我想回顧一下你準備好的發言，你看到潛在客戶的活躍程度上升。我的意思是您能給我們解釋一下這代表什麼嗎？您是否發現不良活動增加？或者這些潛在租戶已經像您的交易文件一樣，已經準備好做出之前無法做出的決定？

Michael, little of both. I mean I think we're -- what we've seen is just the pace first, we saw the pace of touring. The brokers are showing someone through the space. And look, that's where it's got to start. But just the number of space tours from the tenant rep brokers started picking up, and we're still seeing that. And then on the back half, there are a number. And look, we'll keep you updated as quickly as we can in terms of things turning into signed leases. It was a little unusual quarter in a good way and that we signed more within the portfolio more square footage of leasing that we have in the company's history in fourth quarter. So that was a great sign. It was a little bit kind of sorting through it. It was a slow quarter for development leasing but a record quarter for the portfolio leasing.

邁克爾，兩者都不重要。我的意思是，我認為我們——我們首先看到的只是節奏，我們看到了巡迴的節奏。經紀人正在帶領某人參觀該空間。瞧，這就是一切的開始。但來自租戶代表經紀人的空間參觀次數開始增加，我們仍然看到這種情況。然後在後半部分，有一個數字。而且，我們會盡快向您通報簽署租約的最新情況。這是一個不尋常的季度，但從好的方面來說，我們在第四季度簽署了比公司歷史上更多的租賃合約。所以這是一個好兆頭。這有點像是對其進行整理。對於開發租賃來說這是一個緩慢的季度，但對於組合租賃來說卻是一個創紀錄的季度。

But I'm glad in both cases that we've seen the number of tours going up. And yes, we do have a number of letters of intent that are out -- that are signed and a number of leases that are out being negotiated. So again, those can change at times pretty quickly that they may not come back signed, but they're out and the terms are agreed to the earnings are going back and forth.

但我還是很高興看到，旅遊團的數量不斷增加。是的，我們確實已經簽署了一些意向書，並且正在協商一些租約。因此，再說一次，這些情況有時會很快發生變化，他們可能不會再簽字，但他們已經同意了條款，收益也在來回變動。

So that's what we feel better in terms of kind of maybe that activity below the water within looking at an iceberg, that, that has really picked up in the last, call it, 45 days, and we hope we can -- two things, continue that and then convert that activity that -- where we are trading paper today.

因此，就水下冰山一角的活動而言，我們感覺好多了。在過去的 45 天內，這種活動確實有所增加。我們希望能夠做兩件事，繼續這樣做，然後將這種活動轉化為我們今天進行紙面交易的活動。

Okay great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Ronald Camden, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的羅納德·卡姆登。

Great. Just a quick one. I just want to -- the occupancy guide of 96, I was wondering if you could talk about sort of the cadence of the year. Do you have a seasonal dip in 1Q and then you build. And then the second question or the follow-up would just be on the -- would love to get an update on El Paso, Phoenix and San Diego, which are some of the near-shoring and onshoring markets and just what your expectations are for this year and what you're seeing on the grounds there?

偉大的。只需快速操作即可。我只是想——96 的入住率指南，我想知道您是否可以談談今年的節奏。您是否在第一季經歷了季節性下滑，然後又進行了建設？然後第二個問題或後續問題只是關於——很想了解埃爾帕索、菲尼克斯和聖地亞哥的最新情況，這些地方是一些近岸外包和在岸外包市場，您對今年的預期是什麼，以及您對那裡的情況有何看法？

Yeah, I'll start and then let Marshall speak to those markets. Basically, to Marshall's commentary and a commentary today of kind of showing some optimism in thinking that way as we go through 2025 and really our leasing assumptions, which are driven by the field on a space-by-space basis for us in building our model. But it really stays a little dip here to begin the year, we had some known vacates in spaces like the (inaudible) and Dominguez building that we knew we had coming back.

是的，我先開始，然後讓馬歇爾談談這些市場。基本上，馬歇爾的評論和今天的評論都表現出了某種樂觀的態度，因為我們將迎來 2025 年，而我們的租賃假設實際上是由我們構建模型時逐個空間地驅動的。但今年年初這裡確實有點低迷，我們已知的一些空間已經空置，例如（聽不清楚）和 Dominguez 大樓，我們知道這些空間會回來。

And then making some progress kind of staying pretty steady through the first half of the year and then showing that begin to (inaudible) some and then get up and bring that average up on the back end of the year. So I would say that's more back half weighted in terms of the gains, but we're really not showing once we get going into the year, not showing much more deterioration just kind of a continue to work in those levels and then build it up from there.

然後取得一些進展，在上半年保持相當穩定，然後顯示出開始（聽不清楚）一些，然後在年底上升並提高平均水平。因此，我想說，從收益方面來看，這更多的是後半部分加權，但一旦進入新年，我們實際上並沒有表現出更多的惡化，只是繼續在那些水平上努力，然後從那裡開始建立。

But I'll let Marshall speak to those markets you asked about, Ronald.

但我會讓馬歇爾談談你問的那些市場，羅納德。

Yes, I think in terms of onshoring near-shoring, my expectations are that will continue its long-term trend, especially some of the negotiations with tariffs with China and things like that, although obviously, one day this week, Mexico had a 25% tariff, it's on hold. I think that has to make it very difficult for manufacturers to plan on building in Juarez and Tijuana and things like that.

是的，我認為就近岸外包而言，我預計這將延續其長期趨勢，特別是與中國進行的一些關稅談判等，儘管很明顯，本周有一天，墨西哥徵收了 25% 的關稅，但這一計劃暫時擱置。我認為這會使製造商計劃在華雷斯、蒂華納等地建廠變得非常困難。

Maybe Phoenix had some -- the most supply, but it feels like our product type and really our team and then our product have done a really nice job of keeping us full in Arizona, not just Phoenix. And Phoenix is one of our stronger markets, I think, probably surprisingly to people if I said what markets when would we say are strong markets that people reading headlines would I'd say, Phoenix and Houston would be two of our better markets that probably would raise eyebrows. And I think Phoenix just the market itself is good. And then I think there will be development in Nogales, and that will help us in Tucson and in Phoenix and that will move there.

也許菲尼克斯的供應量最多，但感覺我們的產品類型、我們的團隊以及我們的產品都很好地保證了我們在亞利桑那州的供應，而不僅僅是菲尼克斯。菲尼克斯是我們實力較強的市場之一，我想，如果我說哪些市場是實力較強的市場，什麼時候才是人們讀到頭條新聞時會說的強勢市場，那麼人們可能會感到驚訝，菲尼克斯和休斯頓是我們兩個較好的市場，可能會令人驚訝。而且我認為菲尼克斯市場本身就很好。然後我認為諾加萊斯將會有所發展，這將有助於我們在圖森和菲尼克斯的發展，並且我們將把業務轉移到那裡。

El Paso is doing well. It's not as strong as, say, Dallas or Houston are compared. But we're doing well. We're still seeing good leasing activity and rent have leveled out after rising pretty quickly in El Paso. They've more leveled out in the last 12 to 18 months. And then San Diego to a lesser degree, although we certainly like the city of San Diego, it's actually another one where I think I read the stat they were small numbers that have had about 10 quarters of negative absorption in a row in 10 consecutive of course.

埃爾帕索表現良好。它並不像達拉斯或休斯頓那麼強大。但我們做得很好。我們仍然看到良好的租賃活動，埃爾帕索的租金在快速上漲之後已經趨於平穩。在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡，它們已經趨於平穩。然後是聖地牙哥，程度較小，雖然我們確實喜歡聖地牙哥市，但實際上它是另一個我認為我讀過統計數據的城市，它們的數字很小，當然，連續 10 個季度都出現了大約 10 個季度的負吸收量。

So San Diego has been slow. I think it will -- feels like it's picking up. We've got one vacancy there today. We've got another tenant that we'll probably vacate later in the first quarter, about 60,000 feet and we'll backfill it. But in order of those markets, we probably feel the best about Phoenix than El Paso, which is good, not great. And then San Diego, I'd love to see the market move to net absorption. That's been the unique factor for the California markets that we just haven't seen in our other work Dallas and Atlanta have had 40 and 50 consecutive quarters of positive absorption. They've had a few quarters of negative absorption in California.

因此聖地牙哥的進展緩慢。我認為會的——感覺它正在回升。我們今天那裡有一個空缺。我們還有另一個租戶，我們可能會在第一季晚些時候騰出大約 60,000 英尺的空間，然後我們會重新填補它。但按照這些市場的順序，我們對菲尼克斯的感覺可能比埃爾帕索更好，埃爾帕索還不錯，但不是很好。然後是聖地牙哥，我很樂意看到市場轉向淨吸收。這是加州市場的獨特因素，我們在其他工作中從未見過達拉斯和亞特蘭大連續 40 和 50 個季度出現正吸收量。他們在加州已經經歷了幾個季度的負吸收。

You're helpful, thank you.

你很有幫助，謝謝。

Sure, you're welcome.

當然，別客氣。

Thanks Ron.

謝謝羅恩。

Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

Omotayo Okusanya，德意志銀行。

Operator, if we could move, please. I think we've missed --

接線員，我們可以移動一下嗎？我認為我們錯過了--

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

We can hear you.

我們能聽到你的聲音。

How are you?

你好嗎？

Good. So I just wanted to kind of go back to guidance for a quick minute. Some of your comments around just to get rating high-end fourth quarter and some tightness in the acquisitions market. I guess that helps to understand acquisition guidance a little bit better versus how much you did '24.

好的。所以我只是想快速回顧一下指導。您的一些評論只是為了獲得第四季度高端的評級和收購市場的緊張程度。我想這有助於更好地理解收購指導與您在 24 年所做的相比。

But I guess from the occupancy perspective, again, you're not really calling for any increase in occupying in '25 versus '24. But there's been a lot of commentary on the call just around green shoes and improve tours and things like that. So I'm just curious why not a better occupancy guidance, maybe there's some offsets towards some of the green shoots in demand that you've been talking about?

但我想從佔用率的角度來看，你實際上並沒有要求 2025 年的佔用率比 2024 年有所增加。但人們對這項呼籲發表了很多評論，主要涉及綠鞋政策和改進巡迴賽等事宜。所以我只是好奇為什麼沒有更好的入住率指導，也許這對您一直在談論的一些需求綠芽有一定的抵消作用？

Tayo, thanks. And I think maybe a little on both. One, acquisitions are if it's not the hardest bid line item, it's one of the hardest for us. Again, we'll acquire things that make sense, assuming the capital markets or their debt equity. And as Brent mentioned, we certainly have the debt capacity on our balance sheet, that's one. I'll take the blame.

Tayo，謝謝。我認為也許兩者都有一點。首先，即使收購不是最難的競標項目，它對我們來說也是最難的項目之一。再一次，我們將收購有意義的東西，假設資本市場或其債務股權。正如布倫特所提到的，我們的資產負債表上肯定有債務能力，這是其中之一。我會承擔責任。

Last year at this time, we forecast [$130 million in acquisitions]. And I think we finished at, what [390]. So I missed them. I hope I missed it that widely again. And we can certainly make the goal, but we want to make the goal and make smart investments for our investors. So we'll watch the market.

去年這個時候我們預測[1.3 億美元的收購案]。我認為我們結束於[390]。所以我很想念他們。我希望我再次錯過了那麼多。我們當然可以實現這個目標，但我們希望實現這個目標並為我們的投資者進行明智的投資。因此我們會關注市場。

Again, it does feel like the distress acquisition opportunities have about dried up, we'll find them if we can. And hopefully, we'll stick to our underwriting and our strategy, and we'll do our best to beat the $150 million. But that's what's dialed into the budget for now, and I hope we crush it like we did last year.

再一次，確實感覺困境收購的機會已經枯竭，如果可以的話我們會找到它們。希望我們能夠堅持我們的承保和策略，並盡最大努力超過 1.5 億美元。但這就是目前的預算，我希望我們能像去年一樣完成它。

And then in terms of occupancy, as I think about it during the year, there's the letter of intent, then by the time you get the lease signed and then the depending what all is happening in the space a couple of months of build-out and then the tenant moves in, and I'll let Brent chime in. But certainly, the back half of the year or towards the end of the year, our occupancy, our same-store NOI builds during the year as we backfill the space as does our occupancy.

然後就入住率而言，正如我在這一年中考慮的那樣，有意向書，然後到你簽署租約的時候，然後根據空間內發生的所有事情，幾個月的建設，然後租戶搬進來，我會讓布倫特加入進來。但可以肯定的是，在下半年或接近年底時，我們的入住率，即同店淨營業收入會在年內增加，因為我們會填補空間，入住率也會增加。

So maybe it kind of meanders around for the first part of the year and then builds in the back half of the year. So the last quarter's occupancy is materially or I'd say materially, it's higher than it is today, it's pretty high today already at 96, but it builds from there, but it all takes a little bit of time envious of the hotel REITs where it takes us -- by the time we reach agreement, sometimes it feels like forever before we can -- for us, probably to get the tenant moved in.

因此，也許它會在上半年蜿蜒盤旋，然後在下半年逐漸增強。因此，上個季度的入住率實質上或我想說實質上高於今天，今天已經相當高了，達到 96%，但是它從那裡開始上升，但這一切都需要一點時間，羨慕酒店房地產投資信託基金，它帶我們到達那裡——當我們達成協議時，有時感覺要花很長時間才能——對於我們來說，可能要等到租戶搬進來。

Yes. The only thing I'd add to that, Tayo, just a reminder, the [Con] space of 300,000 feet and then the Starship space to me is 260,000 being that it's a little over 1% of occupancy right there. So that's taking a little bit of luster off some of the activity, I guess, we're describing. But -- and then obviously, the team is building in leasing that space up later in the year coming right out of the gate. So that's putting a little bit of kind of a governor to the rate at which it moves up beginning of the year as well.

是的。我唯一想補充的是，Tayo，提醒一下，[Con] 空間為 300,000 英尺，然後星際飛船空間對我來說是 260,000 英尺，因為它只佔那裡的佔用率 1% 多一點。所以我想這會讓我們所描述的一些活動黯然失色。但是 — — 顯然，該團隊正在計劃在今年稍後租賃該空間。所以這對年初上漲的速度也起了一定的作用。

Helpful, thank you.

很有幫助，謝謝。

Vince Tibone, Green Street.

文斯提博內 (Vince Tibone)，綠街。

Hi, good morning. Could you discuss how much incremental NOI from development projects that are currently unlet is baked into '25 guidance? I'm just trying to get a sense of how much spec leasing volumes and the timing of that? And like what's exactly kind of incorporated within guidance?

嗨，早安。您能否討論一下目前未出租的開發案的增量淨營運收入有多少被納入了'25指導方針中？我只是想知道規格租賃量有多少以及時間是多少？那麼指導中具體包含了哪些內容呢？

Yeah. it's Marshall. It's kind of consistent. It builds during the year, the vast majority and again, we have our most coming in fourth quarter probably a little, call it, 40%, maybe not quite that in fourth quarter and around 30% in third quarter. So in total dollars, you're adding this up as I'm looking, you're probably looking at around $6 million or so in the development pipeline of lease up the year. A little more of that is sign leases today and the other, call it, 45% is spec leasing, and it really kind of falls in line to mostly in the back half of the year.

是的。是馬歇爾。這有點一致。它是在一年內累積的，絕大多數，而且我們在第四季度累積的最多，可能有點，比如說 40%，也許在第四季度沒有那麼多，在第三季度大約有 30%。所以，就總金額而言，正如我所看到的，你把這些加起來，你可能會看到今年租賃開發管道的金額大約為 600 萬美元左右。其中，今天簽訂的租約佔多一點，另外 45％ 是投機性租賃，而且大部分都發生在下半年。

And that also mirrors helps why our starts are higher in the back half of that -- those buildings get leases signed and move-ins happen that kicks that next level, that next phase of the park. So again, maybe all told about 6 million and the majority of that is the back half of the year. And that's -- I'm sorry, go ahead.

這也反映了為什麼我們的後半段開工率更高——這些建築簽訂了租約，並且有人入住，從而推動了公園的下一個階段、下一個層次的建設。所以，可能總共約有 600 萬，其中大部分是在今年下半年。那是——抱歉，請繼續。

No, go ahead. I didn't mean to cut you off Marshall, sorry.

不，繼續吧。我不是故意要打斷你的，馬歇爾，抱歉。

I just wanted to say, that's our opportunity. Look and get out ahead of that timing. That's our opportunity in terms of where the -- this is our budgeted FFO and our goal is to beat it where it comes out. And I'm sorry, you had a comment, Vince.

我只是想說，這是我們的機會。看看並提前離開。這是我們的機會，就我們的預算 FFO 而言，我們的目標是擊敗它。很抱歉，文斯，你有一個評論。

No, I just wanted to confirm because you had a lot of helpful numbers and I'll have to look at the transcript. But the $6 million that you mentioned, that's like incremental leasing. That's not any leases that were signed in '24 thus far. I just wanted to confirm that kind of --

不，我只是想確認一下，因為你有很多有用的數字，我必須看一下記錄。但是您提到的 600 萬美元，這就像是增量租賃。到目前為止，還沒有 24 年簽署的任何租約。我只是想確認一下--

Yes, Vince, this is Brent. Just to jump out. We've got about $15.8 million down in for the year, and it's roughly about half of that is already signed lease has spoken for. And again, we've got to get those tenants in and commence, but about half of that is more speculative leasing to occur. And as Marshall pointed out, that's more heavily weighted in the third and fourth quarter. And so just to put exact percentages to about 53%, of that 15 points has already signed into the books and then another 47% that's in the back end of the year to be done, to be executed.

是的，文斯，這是布倫特。只是為了跳出去。我們今年的首付已經達到約 1,580 萬美元，其中大約一半是已經簽署的租約。再說一次，我們必須吸引這些租戶並開始營業，但其中大約一半是投機性租賃。正如馬歇爾指出的那樣，第三季和第四季的權重更大。因此，如果將確切的百分比定為 53% 左右，那麼這 15 點已經簽署到賬，另外 47% 將在年底完成並執行。

Perfect. That's great detail. Thank you.

完美的。細節很精彩。謝謝。

Sure, thank you.

當然，謝謝。

There are no questions at this time, presenter, please continue.

目前沒有問題，請主持人繼續。

Okay. Thanks everyone for your time this morning. Thanks for your interest in EastGroup. If we didn't get to your question, Brent and I and the team are certainly available, and we hope to see you in the next month at the next conference. Take care.

好的。感謝大家今天上午抽出時間。感謝您對 EastGroup 的關注。如果我們沒有回答您的問題，布倫特、我和團隊一定會回答您的問題，我們希望在下個月的下次會議上見到您。小心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。