Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to Encore Capital Group's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 Encore Capital Group 的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to the Vice President of Global Investor Relations, Bruce Thomas.

現在我想將會議交給全球投資者關係副總裁布魯斯·托馬斯 (Bruce Thomas)。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Encore Capital Group's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Ashish Masih, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Jonathan Clark, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Ryan Bell, President of Midland Credit Management.

謝謝你，接線生。下午好，歡迎參加安可資本集團 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Ashish Masih；喬納森·克拉克，執行副總裁兼財務長；和米德蘭信貸管理公司總裁瑞安貝爾(Ryan Bell)。

Ashish and Jon will make prepared remarks today and then we will be happy to take your questions.

阿什什和喬恩今天將發表事先準備好的講話，然後我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

Unless otherwise noted, comparisons on this conference call will be made between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2022 for the full year of 2023 and the full year of 2022. In addition, today's discussion will include forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

除非另有說明，本次電話會議將對 2023 年第四季和 2022 年第四季進行比較，對 2023 年全年和 2022 年全年進行比較。此外，今天的討論將包括基於當前預期和假設並受到風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from our expectations. Please refer to our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of potential risks and uncertainties. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

實際結果可能與我們的預期有重大差異。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解潛在風險和不確定性的詳細討論。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

During this call, we will use rounding and abbreviations for the sake of brevity. We will also be discussing non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our investor presentation, which is available in the Investors section of our website.

在本次通話中，為了簡潔起見，我們將使用舍入和縮寫。我們也將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的投資者介紹中包含了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，您可以在我們網站的投資者部分找到該介紹。

As a reminder, following the conclusion of this call, a replay of this conference call, along with our prepared remarks, will also be made available on the Investors section of our website.

謹此提醒，本次電話會議結束後，本次電話會議的重播以及我們準備好的發言稿也將在我們網站的投資者部分提供。

With that, let me turn the call over to Ashish Masih, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Ashish Masih。

Thanks, Bruce, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us. On today's call, I will start with a high-level recap of 2023. Then I'll review our strategy as well as a few key measures that are important indicators of the state of our business and Jon will review our financial results. After which, I'll touch on our financial priorities and provide guidance on several key metrics for 2024.

謝謝布魯斯，大家下午好。感謝您加入我們。在今天的電話會議上，我將首先對 2023 年進行高層回顧。然後我將審查我們的策略以及一些關鍵指標，這些指標是我們業務狀況的重要指標，喬恩將審查我們的財務表現。之後，我將討論我們的財務優先事項，並就 2024 年的幾個關鍵指標提供指導。

At the conclusion of today's call, we will also post to our website our annual report, which includes our 10-K and my letter to shareholders. We will begin with a look back over the past year.

在今天的電話會議結束時，我們還將在我們的網站上發布我們的年度報告，其中包括我們的 10-K 和我致股東的信。我們首先回顧過去的一年。

For the debt buying industry as a whole, 2023 was a year characterized by a continued rapid growth of portfolio supply in the US, contrasted by slower growth in the UK and Europe.

對於整個債券購買產業來說，2023 年的特點是美國投資組合供應持續快速成長，而英國和歐洲的成長則放緩。

Let's begin in the US where continued increases in lending by banks, coupled with rising delinquencies and charge-offs, led to an exceptional purchasing environment. With record supply in the US market for nonperforming loan portfolios, the largest business, MCM increased its portfolio purchases in 2023 to a record $815 million at strong returns. This total was double the amount we purchased in 2021.

讓我們從美國開始，銀行貸款的持續增加，加上拖欠和沖銷的增加，導致了特殊的購買環境。由於美國市場不良貸款組合（最大的業務）的供應量創歷史新高，MCM 在 2023 年將其投資組合購買量增加到創紀錄的 8.15 億美元，並獲得了強勁的回報。這個總數是我們 2021 年購買量的兩倍。

Our disciplined approach to purchasing portfolios and the flexibility of our global balance sheet have allowed us to redirect our capital deployment to the higher return opportunities in the US. In fact, 76% of our portfolio purchasing in 2023 was allocated to the US market compared to 56% five years ago.

我們嚴格的投資組合購買方式和全球資產負債表的靈活性使我們能夠將資本部署轉向美國回報率更高的機會。事實上，2023 年我們的投資組合採購中有 76% 分配給了美國市場，而五年前這一比例為 56%。

As a result of this focus, we believe Encore has emerged from 2023 in a stronger competitive position and a clear leader in the industry with a US business as the engine.

由於這一重點，我們相信 Encore 從 2023 年起將擁有更強大的競爭地位，並成為以美國業務為引擎的行業明顯領導者。

In contrast to the US supply growth in the UK has been much more muted. Credit card outstandings are still not yet back to pre-pandemic levels as banks in the UK, unlike those in the US, did not start to meaningfully increase lending during the pandemic years.

與美國相比，英國的供應成長要溫和得多。信用卡未償餘額仍尚未恢復到疫情前的水平，因為與美國銀行不同，英國銀行在疫情期間並未開始大幅增加貸款。

In addition, UK charge-offs remain at low levels. The competitive environment faced by our business in the UK and Europe, Cabot Credit Management, continues to be stiffer than the US as many of our competitors appear to have been slow in fully adjusting pricing to higher funding costs.

此外，英國的沖銷仍處於較低水準。我們在英國和歐洲的業務卡博特信用管理公司面臨的競爭環境仍然比美國更加激烈，因為我們的許多競爭對手似乎在全面調整定價以適應更高的融資成本方面進展緩慢。

Against this backdrop, we remain patient, choosing to deploy at current low levels until the returns in Cabot's markets become more attractive. So after several years of lower deployments caused by the pandemic and its after effects and with our MCM business leading the way, we expect to turn the corner in 2024 with regard to our operational and financial results.

在此背景下，我們保持耐心，選擇在當前的低水準進行部署，直到卡博特市場的回報變得更具吸引力。因此，在疫情及其後果導致部署量下降數年之後，在我們的 MCM 業務的引領下，我們預計我們的營運和財務表現將在 2024 年出現轉機。

At this time, I believe it's helpful to reiterate the critical role we play in the consumer credit ecosystem by assisting in the resolution of unpaid debts, which are an expected and necessary outcome of the lending business model. Our mission is to help create pathways to economic freedom for the consumers we serve by helping them resolve their past due debts.

此時，我認為重申我們在消費信貸生態系統中透過協助解決未償債務所發揮的關鍵作用是有幫助的，這是貸款業務模式的預期和必要結果。我們的使命是透過幫助我們服務的消費者解決逾期債務來幫助他們創造經濟自由的途徑。

We do that by engaging consumers and honest, empathetic, and respectful conversations. Our businesses to purchase portfolios of nonperforming loans at attractive returns while minimizing funding costs.

我們透過與消費者互動以及誠實、同理心和尊重的對話來做到這一點。我們的企業以有吸引力的回報購買不良貸款組合，同時最大限度地降低融資成本。

For each portfolio that we own, we strive to exceed our collection expectations while maintaining an efficient cost structure as well as ensuring the highest level of compliance and consumer focus. We achieved these objectives through a three-pillar strategy. This strategy enables us to deliver outstanding financial performance and positions us well to capitalize on future opportunities. We believe this is instrumental for building long-term shareholder value.

對於我們擁有的每個產品組合，我們努力超越我們的收藏期望，同時保持高效的成本結構，並確保最高水準的合規性和消費者關注。我們透過三支柱策略實現了這些目標。這項策略使我們能夠實現出色的財務業績，並使我們能夠很好地利用未來的機會。我們相信這對於建立長期股東價值至關重要。

I would now like to highlight Encore's performance in 2023 in terms of several key metrics, starting with portfolio purchasing. Encore's global portfolio purchases increased 34% for the year, with record US deployments in our largest business, MCM, leading the way. This increased portfolio purchasing will help drive Encore's collections growth in 2024.

我現在想重點介紹 Encore 在 2023 年的幾個關鍵指標的表現，首先是投資組合購買。今年，Encore 的全球投資組合採購量成長了 34%，其中我們最大的業務 MCM 在美國的部署創紀錄，遙遙領先。增加的產品組合購買將有助於推動 Encore 在 2024 年的產品系列成長。

Our concentration of portfolio purchases in the US in 2023 is a reminder that the flexibility of our global funding structure allows us to allocate capital toward our highest return opportunities. You may recall that our balance sheet strength is a key element of our three-pillar strategy.

2023 年我們的投資組合購買集中在美國，這提醒我們，我們全球融資結構的靈活性使我們能夠將資本分配給最高回報的機會。您可能還記得，我們​​的資產負債表實力是我們三大支柱策略的關鍵要素。

As market supply remains elevated in the US and the pricing environment continues to improve, MCM's ERC is steadily growing. Importantly, as pricing continues to improve, we expect to collect more for every dollar of capital deployed. The significant amount of ERC we are adding reflects the efficiency of our global capital deployment and is reflected in our higher purchase price multiples.

隨著美國市場供應量持續增加以及定價環境持續改善，MCM 的 ERC 正在穩步成長。重要的是，隨著定價的不斷提高，我們預期每投入一美元資本就能獲得更多收益。我們增加的大量 ERC 反映了我們全球資本部署的效率，並反映在我們更高的購買價格倍數上。

Our portfolio purchasing in 2023 clearly illustrates this point. I mentioned a moment ago that compared to 2022, Encore's portfolio purchases in 2023 increased 34%. Over that same period, the ERC we added as a result of those purchases increased 43%.

我們在 2023 年的投資組合採購清楚地說明了這一點。我剛才提到，與2022年相比，Encore在2023年的投資組合購買量增加了34%。同期，我們因這些購買而增加的 ERC 增加了 43%。

That increase in purchasing efficiency and higher purchase price multiples translates to an incremental $142 million of future collections for the 2023 purchase vintage. We cannot overstate the importance of our differentiated multiples, which are indicators of our higher returns, and their expected impact on future financial performance.

採購效率的提高和更高的採購價格倍數意味著 2023 年採購年份的未來收藏將增加 1.42 億美元。我們無法誇大差異化本益比的重要性，這些本益比是我們更高報酬率及其對未來財務表現的預期影響的指標。

This current purchasing environment in the US is what we've been anticipating. Our MCM business is in full stride purchasing portfolios at strong returns, which adds future cash flows and profitability to the business.

美國目前的購買環境正是我們所期待的。我們的 MCM 業務正在全力採購投資組合，回報豐厚，這增加了業務的未來現金流和獲利能力。

Global collections in 2023 were $1.86 billion compared to $1.91 billion in the prior year. After being impacted by several years of lower deployments due to the pandemic and its after-effects, we expect collections to grow meaningfully in 2024.

2023 年全球收藏價值為 18.6 億美元，而前一年為 19.1 億美元。由於疫情及其後果，受到了數年部署量下降的影響，我們預計收集量將在 2024 年大幅成長。

We believe that our ability to generate significant cash provides us an important competitive advantage, which is also a key component of our three-pillar strategy. In the US, from 2020 through the first half of 2022, lower consumer spending, credit card balances, and charge-off rates drove reduced market supply in our industry and also led to higher collections for our business.

我們相信，我們產生大量現金的能力為我們提供了重要的競爭優勢，這也是我們三大支柱策略的關鍵組成部分。在美國，從 2020 年到 2022 年上半年，消費者支出、信用卡餘額和沖銷率的下降導致我們行業的市場供應減少，也導致我們業務的催收額增加。

When consumer behavior began to normalize and incremental cash generation from these higher collections began to subside, our cash generation came under pressure as the prolonged period of lower portfolio purchases then led to reduced overall collections.

當消費者行為開始正常化並且來自這些較高收藏品的增量現金產生開始消退時，我們的現金產生面臨壓力，因為長期較低的投資組合購買導致整體收藏品減少。

More recently, however, higher portfolio purchases and improving pricing over the past several quarters have begun to reverse this trend. Similar to what I mentioned a moment ago regarding our collections trajectory, we expect our cash generation to also grow meaningfully in 2024 in comparison to 2023.

然而，最近，過去幾季投資組合購買量的增加和定價的改善已經開始扭轉這一趨勢。與我剛才提到的關於我們的收藏軌蹟的內容類似，我們預計 2024 年我們的現金產生量也將比 2023 年顯著增長。

US consumer credit card delinquencies, a leading indicator of future charge-offs, have also continued to rise and are now well above pre-pandemic levels. As both lending and the charge off rate grew simultaneously, we saw record US market supply in 2023. Delinquency data at year end supports our conclusion that we expect 2024 to be another record year for portfolio sales by US banks and credit card issuers.

美國消費者信用卡拖欠率（未來沖銷的領先指標）也持續上升，目前遠高於疫情前的水準。由於貸款和沖銷率同時成長，我們看到 2023 年美國市場供應量創歷史新高。年末的拖欠數據支持了我們的結論，即我們預計 2024 年美國銀行和信用卡發行機構的投資組合銷售將再創紀錄。

Reports from the US Federal Reserve show that credit card balances continue to set new all-time records on a monthly basis, powered in part by strong consumer spending. In addition, we continue to see steadily rising delinquencies and charge-offs, resulting in increased availability of charged-off portfolios for purchase from US banks at increasingly attractive returns.

聯準會的報告顯示，信用卡餘額每月繼續創下新的歷史記錄，部分原因是強勁的消費者支出。此外，我們繼續看到拖欠和沖銷穩定上升，導致從美國銀行購買沖銷投資組合的可能性越來越大，回報也越來越有吸引力。

We believe a higher share of this charge-off growth is coming from issuers that are active in the near-prime and subprime segments, as well as from newer players such as fintech lenders. We also believe strong growth in lending during the pandemic years is now exhibiting higher delinquency rates when compared to older origination vintages. As a result, the supply of charged-off portfolios in the US reached a record level in 2023 and we expect it to continue to grow in 2024.

我們認為，這種沖銷成長的較高份額來自活躍於近優質貸款和次級貸款領域的發行人，以及金融科技貸方等新參與者。我們還認為，與較早的發起年份相比，疫情期間貸款的強勁增長現在表現出更高的拖欠率。因此，美國核銷投資組合的供應量在 2023 年達到創紀錄水平，我們預計將在 2024 年繼續成長。

With this favorable environment as a backdrop, our MCM business deployed a record $815 million in 2023 at an attractive purchase price multiple of 2.3 times. This outcome was the result of our disciplined purchasing approach amid an improving pricing environment.

在這種有利的環境背景下，我們的 MCM 業務在 2023 年部署了創紀錄的 8.15 億美元，收購價格倍數為 2.3 倍，極具吸引力。這項結果是我們在定價環境不斷改善的情況下採取嚴格採購方法的結果。

To put this purchasing figure into proper context, MCM's prior record for portfolio purchases for a full calendar year was $682 million in 2019, meaning our 2023 deployment surpassed the prior record by 20% or $133 million.

為了正確理解這一採購數字，MCM 2019 年全年投資組合採購記錄為 6.82 億美元，這意味著我們 2023 年的部署量超出了先前的記錄 20%，即 1.33 億美元。

MCM ended its record 2023 with $208 million of portfolio purchases in Q4 at strong returns. We see no signs of this favorable purchasing environment slowing down. In fact, the supply pipeline in the US remains robust as we already have $230 million of committed portfolio purchases in Q1 at strong returns.

MCM2023 年第四季投資組合購買額達到 2.08 億美元，回報強勁，創下了 2023 年創紀錄的紀錄。我們沒有看到這種有利的購買環境放緩的跡象。事實上，美國的供應管道仍然強勁，因為我們在第一季承諾購買 2.3 億美元的投資組合，並獲得了豐厚的回報。

To be ready for our increased purchasing, MCM continues to expand internal collections capacity. During the full year 2023, we added over 500 account managers to MCM's operation.

為了為增加採購做好準備，MCM 繼續擴大內部收貨能力。2023 年全年，我們為 MCM 的營運增加了 500 多名客戶經理。

MCM collections in 2023 were $1.3 billion. In terms of consumer behavior, we are observing a more normal, stable environment that is similar to the pre-pandemic years, most notably in terms of payment plan performance.

2023 年 MCM 募款金額為 13 億美元。就消費者行為而言，我們觀察到一個與疫情前類似的更正常、穩定的環境，尤其是在付款計劃績效方面。

The shift of consumer preferences toward more online and digital interactions is evident in every part of the consumer financial services industry. More than 90% of consumers who responded to marketing correspondence from MCM responded via our online portal.

消費者偏好向更多線上和數位互動的轉變在消費者金融服務業的各個領域都很明顯。超過 90% 回覆 MCM 行銷信函的消費者透過我們的線上入口網站回覆。

Accordingly, we continue to invest significantly in technology and digital capabilities which we believe, given our scale, will maintain or even enhance our competitive advantage. These investments have allowed our MCM business over the past four years to double the proportion of consumers who make their first payment using our digital channel.

因此，我們繼續在技術和數位能力方面進行大量投資，我們相信，鑑於我們的規模，這將保持甚至增強我們的競爭優勢。這些投資使我們的 MCM 業務在過去四年中使用我們的數位管道進行首次付款的消費者比例增加了一倍。

The accounting will show you that we recorded negative CECL adjustments in 2023 for our MCM business. These adjustments have largely been focused on five quarterly pool groups in the 2021 and 2022 vintages which were purchased during the height of the pandemic's positive impact on our collections.

會計將顯示我們在 2023 年對 MCM 業務進行了負的 CECL 調整。這些調整主要集中在 2021 年和 2022 年年份的五個季度池組，這些組是在疫情對我們的系列產生積極影響的最嚴重時期購買的。

As a result, they present forecasting challenges, but not collection challenges. In fact, even after the CECL adjustments we have made, the current purchase price multiples remain attractive, with the 2021 vintage still above 2.3 times and the 2022 vintage at 2.1 times. Importantly, these portfolio purchases are profitable and are generating strong cash collections. Jon will have more to say about the CECL accounting impacts during his remarks.

因此，它們帶來了預測挑戰，但不是收集挑戰。事實上，即使在我們進行了CECL調整之後，目前的購買價格倍數仍然具有吸引力，2021年份的購買價格倍數仍高於2.3倍，2022年份的購買價格倍數為2.1倍。重要的是，這些投資組合購買是有利可圖的，並且正在產生強勁的現金回籠。Jon 將在演講中更多地談論 CECL 的會計影響。

In contrast to the US, supply growth in the UK has been much more muted. Credit card outstandings are still not yet back to pre-pandemic levels as banks in the UK, unlike those in the US, did not start to meaningfully increase lending during the pandemic years. And even today, UK charge-offs remain at low levels.

與美國相比，英國的供應成長要溫和得多。信用卡未償餘額仍尚未恢復到疫情前的水平，因為與美國銀行不同，英國銀行在疫情期間並未開始大幅增加貸款。即使在今天，英國的沖銷仍保持在較低水準。

Cabot's collections in 2023 were $544 million compared to $553 million a year ago. With the UK economy now officially in recession, we believe a weakening in consumer confidence is impacting one-time settlements, though existing payment plan performance remains stable.

2023 年，卡博特的收藏為 5.44 億美元，而一年前為 5.53 億美元。隨著英國經濟現已正式陷入衰退，我們認為消費者信心的減弱正在影響一次性結算，儘管現有的付款計劃表現仍然穩定。

We continue to constrain Cabot's portfolio purchases, which were $255 million in 2023. We have maintained our purchasing discipline in the face of portfolio pricing in Europe that we believe still does not yet fully reflect higher funding costs, although we saw some improvement in the fourth quarter.

我們繼續限制卡博特的投資組合購買，2023 年為 2.55 億美元。面對歐洲的投資組合定價，我們保持了採購紀律，我們認為這仍然沒有完全反映更高的融資成本，儘管我們在第四季度看到了一些改善。

Against this backdrop we remain patient, choosing to deploy at current low levels until the returns in Cabot's markets become more attractive, and choosing for now to allocate significantly more capital to the higher return US market, consistent with our well-established strategic focus.

在此背景下，我們保持耐心，選擇在當前的低水平進行部署，直到卡博特市場的回報變得更具吸引力，並選擇現在將更多資本配置到回報更高的美國市場，這與我們既定的策略重點一致。

We reduced Cabot's headcount by 8% in 2023 to better align the expense structure with this lower purchasing level. As you may recall, we announced a portion of these headcount reductions in the first quarter of 2023.

2023 年，我們將卡博特的員工人數減少了 8%，以便更好地調整費用結構以適應較低的採購水準。您可能還記得，我們​​在 2023 年第一季宣布了部分裁員計畫。

While these actions reduced expenses and helped offset a portion of cost inflation, we continue to invest significantly in Cabot's technology and digital capabilities, similar to MCM. As a result of these efforts, nearly one-third of all new payment plans in the UK were set up digitally in 2023 and the proportion continues to trend upward.

雖然這些行動減少了開支並幫助抵消了部分成本上漲，但我們仍繼續對卡博特的技術和數位能力進行大量投資，與 MCM 類似。由於這些努力，到 2023 年，英國所有新支付計畫中近三分之一都是以數位方式製定的，而這一比例繼續呈上升趨勢。

As a result of our annual test for goodwill, we reported a $238 million goodwill impairment in the fourth quarter. This non-cash charge was primarily driven by persistently low purchasing by our Cabot business for the last five years, combined with a sustained decline in debt purchasing industry valuations. This charge has no impact on our liquidity, on our ability to purchase portfolios, on our capability to collect on portfolios we have already purchased, or on our outlook for Encore.

根據我們年度商譽測試的結果，我們報告第四季商譽減損為 2.38 億美元。這項非現金費用主要是由於過去五年我們卡博特業務的採購量持續較低，加上債務採購行業估值持續下降所致。這項費用對我們的流動性、我們購買投資組合的能力、我們對已購買的投資組合收取費用的能力或我們對 Encore 的前景沒有影響。

I'd now like to hand over the call to Jon for a more detailed look at our financial results.

現在我想將電話轉接給喬恩，讓他更詳細地了解我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Ashish. 2023 was another period of strong purchasing for our US business at attractive returns, while our collections performance remained stable in each of our key markets. Collections were slightly below expectations for the fourth quarter, and we made small adjustments to our ERC. Both of these items impacted earnings in a negative way.

謝謝你，阿什什。 2023 年是我們美國業務強勁採購的另一個時期，回報頗具吸引力，同時我們的產品系列表現在每個主要市場都保持穩定。第四季的收款額略低於預期，我們對 ERC 進行了小幅調整。這兩項都對收益產生了負面影響。

Our reported financial results in 2023, and in particular our net loss of $206 million, or $8.72 per share, were not indicative of the underlying strength of our business due to certain non-cash charges, the largest of which was the $238 million goodwill impairment charge. We want to be clear that this charge has no impact on our liquidity, on our operations, or on our outlook for the business.

我們報告的2023 年財務業績，特別是我們2.06 億美元的淨虧損，即每股8.72 美元，由於某些非現金費用（其中最大的是2.38 億美元的商譽減值），並不能表明我們業務的潛在實力。我們想明確的是，這項費用對我們的流動性、我們的營運或我們的業務前景沒有影響。

In addition, our revenues in 2023 were reduced by $83 million due to changes in recoveries stemming from the CECL accounting methodology. In contrast, our revenues during 2022 were increased by $93 million due to CECL impacts.

此外，由於 CECL 會計方法導致的回收率變化，我們 2023 年的收入減少了 8,300 萬美元。相較之下，由於 CECL 的影響，我們 2022 年的收入增加了 9,300 萬美元。

For our industry, CECL uses collections forecasts to determine quarterly revenue. Small variations in actual performance versus forecast or even smaller changes in forecasts themselves can lead to significant volatility in revenues.

對於我們的行業，CECL 使用收款預測來確定季度收入。實際績效與預測的微小變化，甚至預測本身的微小變化都可能導致收入的大幅波動。

However, it is important to understand that over the full lifecycle of a portfolio, revenue will always be equal to total portfolio collections less purchase price. We believe with the passage of time post-pandemic, the CECL-related volatility which we have observed to date will likely recede. In addition, we are working diligently at enhancing our forecasting and related processes.

然而，重要的是要了解，在投資組合的整個生命週期中，收入始終等於投資組合收藏總數減去購買價格。我們相信，隨著疫情過後時間的推移，我們迄今為止觀察到的與 CECL 相關的波動可能會消退。此外，我們正在努力加強我們的預測和相關流程。

We have provided a list of these accounting impacts to our fourth-quarter and full-year results in our earnings press release and presentation. We hope that this information will allow investors to understand the true underlying performance of our business.

我們在收益新聞稿和演示中提供了這些會計對我們第四季度和全年業績的影響清單。我們希望這些資訊能讓投資人了解我們業務的真實基本績效。

I'd like to highlight a couple of items not yet mentioned. Estimated remaining collections or ERC at the end of 2023 was $8.2 billion, up 8% compared to a year ago. Our operating expenses, which were up 29% in 2023 compared to the prior year, were up only 2% after excluding the impact of goodwill and intangible asset impairments.

我想強調一些尚未提及的項目。預計 2023 年底剩餘收款或 ERC 為 82 億美元，比一年前成長 8%。2023 年，我們的營運費用比前一年增長了 29%，但在排除商譽和無形資產減損的影響後，僅增加了 2%。

The third pillar of our three-pillar strategy ensures that the strength of our balance sheet is a constant priority. When compared to the pre-pandemic years, Encore has become a much stronger company. We now have a unified global funding structure that provides us with financial flexibility, diversified sources of financing, and extended maturities.

我們三支柱策略的第三支柱確保我們的資產負債表實力始終是首要任務。與疫情大流行前相比，Encore 已成為一家更強大的公司。我們現在擁有統一的全球融資結構，為我們提供了財務靈活性、多元化的融資來源和更長的期限。

Our leverage ratio at the end of 2023 was 2.9 times, near the high end of our target range of 2 to 3 times. Our debt-to-equity ratio rose sharply in Q4, largely the result of the impact of the non-cash goodwill impairment on our equity.

截至 2023 年底，我們的槓桿率為 2.9 倍，接近我們目標範圍 2 至 3 倍的上限。第四季我們的負債與股本比率大幅上升，很大程度是由於非現金商譽減損對我們權益的影響。

With higher interest rates and evolving conditions in the bond markets, the importance of our global funding structure cannot be overstated. We believe our balance sheet provides us very competitive funding costs when compared to our peers. Our funding structure also provides us financial flexibility and diversified funding sources to compete effectively in this growing supply environment.

隨著利率上升和債券市場狀況不斷變化，我們的全球融資結構的重要性怎麼強調都不為過。我們相信，與同業相比，我們的資產負債表為我們提供了極具競爭力的融資成本。我們的融資結構也為我們提供了財務靈活性和多元化的融資來源，以便在不斷增長的供應環境中有效競爭。

In the fourth quarter, we made good use of this flexibility by adding $175 million of incremental liquidity to our balance sheet as we prepare for the robust pipeline we see in the US in 2024. To achieve this, we entered into a $175 million facility secured by US receivable portfolios. We also extended the maturity of the Cabot securitization facility to September 2028 and reduced its size by GBP95 million pounds to GBP255 million. In addition, we issued an incremental GBP100 million of our 2028 floating rate notes, as a follow-on tap of our December 2020 offering.

第四季度，我們充分利用了這種靈活性，在資產負債表中增加了 1.75 億美元的增量流動性，為 2024 年美國的強勁管道做好準備。為了實現這一目標，我們簽署了一項由美國應收帳款投資組合擔保的 1.75 億美元融資。我們也將卡博特證券化工具的期限延長至 2028 年 9 月，並將其規模減少 9,500 萬英鎊，至 2.55 億英鎊。此外，我們也發行了 2028 年浮動利率票據增量 1 億英鎊，作為 2020 年 12 月發行的後續發行。

With that, I'd like to turn it back over to Ashish.

有了這個，我想把它轉回給 Ashish。

Before I close, I'd like to remind everyone of our commitment to a consistent set of financial priorities that we established long ago. The importance of a strong, diversified balance sheet in our industry cannot be overstated, especially given the exceptional portfolio purchasing environment in the US. We will continue to be good stewards of your capital by always taking the long view and prioritizing portfolio purchases at attractive returns in order to build long-term shareholder value.

在結束之前，我想提醒大家，我們對很久以前製定的一套一致的財務優先事項的承諾。強大、多元化的資產負債表對我們產業的重要性怎麼強調都不為過，特別是考慮到美國特殊的投資組合購買環境。我們將繼續做好您資本的管家，始終著眼長遠，優先考慮以有吸引力的回報進行投資組合購買，以建立長期股東價值。

Now, I would like to spend a moment on the recent volatility in our financial results. Despite the fact that we have a fairly predictable business in terms of operational metrics, such as collections and cash generation, the volatility in our GAAP earnings results since the adoption of the CECL accounting standard has been a source of frustration for us and for investors. We hear you.

現在，我想花點時間談談我們最近財務業績的波動。儘管我們的業務在收款和現金產生等營運指標方面具有相當可預測性，但自從採用 CECL 會計準則以來，我們的 GAAP 收益結果的波動一直讓我們和投資者感到沮喪。我們聽到你的聲音。

In fact, we learn a great deal from the investment community, constantly listening to feedback and conducting periodic investor perception studies, which we refreshed in 2023. Based on this feedback, we plan to continue to provide information each quarter which clearly identifies the impact on our results from CECL-related items.

事實上，我們從投資界學到了很多東西，不斷聽取回饋並定期進行投資者認知研究，並在 2023 年更新了這些研究。根據這些回饋，我們計劃繼續每個季度提供信息，明確指出 CECL 相關項目對我們業績的影響。

We believe Encore is truly differentiated in our sector with a solid track record of operating results and superior capabilities. After several years of low deployments caused by the pandemic and its after-effects, we have been purchasing record amounts of portfolio at strong returns in the US market. And as I stated at the beginning of our presentation, we believe we are now turning the corner in operational and financial results.

我們相信 Encore 在我們的行業中真正脫穎而出，擁有良好的營運業績記錄和卓越的能力。在經歷了幾年因疫情及其後果而導致的低部署之後，我們在美國市場以強勁的回報購買了創紀錄數量的投資組合。正如我在演講開始時所說的那樣，我們相信我們現在正在扭轉營運和財務表現的困境。

To further emphasize the fundamental predictability of our business and our positive outlook for 2024, we have chosen to provide guidance on certain key metrics for the year. Driven primarily by the continuing robust pipeline for portfolio supply in the US, we expect portfolio purchasing to exceed our 2023 total of $1.074 billion. We expect collections to grow by approximately 8% to over $2 billion. We also expect interest expense to increase to approximately $235 million and we expect our effective tax rate to be in the mid-20s on a percentage basis.

為了進一步強調我們業務的基本可預測性以及我們對 2024 年的積極前景，我們選擇就今年的某些關鍵指標提供指導。主要受到美國持續強勁的投資組合供應管道的推動，我們預計投資組合購買總額將超過 2023 年的 10.74 億美元。我們預計藏品將成長約 8%，達到超過 20 億美元。我們也預計利息支出將增加至約 2.35 億美元，我們預計我們的有效稅率將按百分比計算將在 20 多歲左右。

Now we'd be happy to answer any questions that you may have. Operator, open up the lines for questions.

現在我們很樂意回答您的任何問題。接線員，打開提問線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

David Scharf, Citizens JMP.

David Scharf，公民 JMP。

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking questions. Ashish and Jonathan, not surprisingly, I'd like to dig in a little more to the impairments at Cabot. Obviously, from an accounting standpoint, I'm sure the level degree of impairment is what it should be. Just trying to get a sense for really two things to begin with. Number one: is the bulk of the impairment related to valuations of other European comps, particularly the public ones you're seeing out there? Or is more of it related to maybe your longer-term assessment of how large that purchasing market is?

嗨，下午好。感謝您提出問題。阿什什和喬納森，毫不奇怪，我想進一步深入了解卡博特的缺陷。顯然，從會計的角度來看，我確信減損水準是應該的。只是想從一開始就了解兩件事。第一：大部分減損是否與其他歐洲公司的估值有關，尤其是你看到的上市公司？或者更多的是與您對採購市場有多大的長期評估有關？

Yes, let me take a stab at it, David. Hello. So the goodwill impairment is the result of our annual impairment test, goodwill impairment test that we have to do for the standard. And it resulted in $238 million noncash impairment against two drivers that you kind of alluded to already.

是的，讓我嘗試一下，大衛。你好。所以商譽減損測試是我們每年進行減損測試的結果，商譽減損測試是我們要做的標準。這導致您已經提到的兩名司機遭受了 2.38 億美元的非現金減損。

The first is persistently low portfolio purchasing by Cabot for the past five years. If you go back in history and look at Cabot's purchasing from 2017, '18, and then the five years after. And second was due to reduced valuation of competitors who comprise the purchasing -- debt purchasing industry, both European and US.

首先是卡博特在過去五年持續較低的投資組合採購。如果你回顧歷史，看看卡博特從 2017 年、18 年以及之後五年的採購情況。其次是由於構成歐洲和美國債務採購行業的競爭對手的估值下降。

However, the first driver I would highlight we have been mentioning low purchasing at Cabot for a very long time due to initially market supply and returns. But more importantly and more recently allocating more capital to US because of higher returns. So keep in mind, this allocation reduces collections and cash generation at Cabot, but it drives more collections, more cash generation, and more value at Encore level.

然而，我要強調的第一個驅動因素是，由於最初的市場供應和回報，我們長期以來一直提到卡博特的採購量較低。但更重要的是，由於回報率更高，最近向美國配置了更多資本。因此請記住，這種分配減少了卡博特的收款和現金生成，但它在 Encore 層面推動了更多的收款、更多的現金產生和更多價值。

So on the second driver, again, the collective market value of many of our competitors has been under pressure for a long time, and it's a factor in the testing. So I just want to be clear about those drivers, but also that this charge again, to repeat, has no impact on our liquidity, no impact on our operations or ability to collect or on the outlook for the business

因此，在第二個驅動因素上，我們許多競爭對手的集體市場價值長期以來一直處於壓力之下，這是測試的因素。因此，我只想澄清這些驅動因素，但再次重申，這項收費對我們的流動性沒有影響，對我們的營運或收款能力或業務前景沒有影響

Understood. And given obviously, as you noted, it's kind of five years, not just the pandemic anomalies, but we've seen depressed volumes. I know you're not guiding line item and geography. But should we be thinking about purchasing levels, not just this year, but maybe just as a more normalize level in Cabot, something that was consistent with what we just saw on 2023, or should it be even more conservative?

明白了。顯然，正如您所指出的，這已經過去了五年，不僅是大流行異常，而且我們還看到了成交量的下降。我知道您沒有指導訂單項目和地理位置。但我們是否應該考慮採購水平，而不僅僅是今年，而可能只是卡博特的一個更正常的水平，與我們剛剛在 2023 年看到的一致，還是應該更加保守？

And so as we focus on returns, if you look at the market, the way kind of we have articulated and what we've seen, on a relative basis, US market is growing very significantly and at attractive returns. And the markets we are in in Europe, again, it's a number of different countries. We have primarily in UK and as well France and Spain being the next two. And UK lending hasn't really picked up and charge-offs still remain very low.

因此，當我們專注於回報時，如果你觀察市場、我們闡述的方式以及我們所看到的情況，相對而言，美國市場成長非常顯著，回報也很有吸引力。我們在歐洲的市場也有很多不同的國家。我們主要在英國，其次是法國和西班牙。英國的貸款並沒有真正回升，沖銷率仍然很低。

So from all indications, the market is not going to suddenly start changing. Now, officially, UK is in recession now. Just two quarters of very slight negative growth. Who knows where that goes. But we expect 2024 for us at least a growth in purchasing to come from the US market, which we expect will exceed overall for Encore level 2023 purchasing at this time.

因此，從所有跡象來看，市場不會突然開始改變。現在，正式來說，英國正處於衰退之中。僅兩季出現非常輕微的負成長。誰知道那會去哪裡。但我們預計 2024 年美國市場的採購量至少會出現成長，預計此時的 Encore 採購量將超過 2023 年的整體採購量。

Got it. And then the last, geographic-focused question. I'm not sure if I missed it in the presentation. The change in expected recoveries in the period variance, they result -- I guess, they were around $50 million, $52 million combined basis. Was there a geographic breakdown of that? Was that mostly Cabot focused? Or because of those 2021, '22 vintages in the US?

知道了。然後是最後一個以地理為中心的問題。我不確定我是否在演示中錯過了它。期間差異中預期回收率的變化，我猜，它們大約是 5000 萬美元，總計 5200 萬美元。有地理細分嗎？這主要是卡博特關注的嗎？還是因為美國的 2021、'22 年份葡萄酒？

Yes. So the $52 million in Q4 is comprised of $31 million for US and $22 million for Cabot. And as I mentioned earlier, for the US, $31 million is the total. But they are predominantly, in fact, more than 100%. So $34 million out of the $31 million is from the two vintages, 2021 and 2022.

是的。因此，第四季的 5,200 萬美元包括美國的 3,100 萬美元和卡博特的 2,200 萬美元。正如我之前提到的，美國的總額為 3100 萬美元。但事實上，它們的比例超過 100%。因此，這 3,100 萬美元中的 3,400 萬美元來自 2021 年和 2022 年這兩個年份。

And even in that, there's five quarterly pool groups that are impacted. And these were purchased at the time of transition was happening. Supply was still low; pricing was high, kind of flattish; and evaluations were reflecting, kind of trying to reflect what was happening to collections. It's taken us a little bit of time to work through those changes and forecasting changes as we monitor the actual performance.

即便如此，仍有五個季度池組受到影響。這些都是在過渡時期購買的。供應量仍較低；定價很高，有點平淡；評估正在反思，有點試圖反映收藏中發生的事情。我們花了一點時間來處理這些變化並在監控實際效能時預測變化。

Now I'd like to emphasize that if you look at these vintages, they're still strong multiples. The 2021 vintage is at 2.3 times still after the CECL adjustments. 2022 vintage is at 2.1 times. So these are good, profitable vintages that are generating strong collections.

現在我想強調的是，如果你看看這些年份，它們仍然是強大的倍數。經過 CECL 調整後，2021 年年份仍為 2.3 倍。 2022 年年份為 2.1 倍。因此，這些都是優質、有利可圖的年份，正在產生強大的收藏。

And I would also emphasize kind of these were forecasting challenges, not collecting challenges. So as we've taken our time to catch up to kind of what the normalized pattern is, these are forecasting issues, not collecting issues. We're still collecting really well on these vintages.

我還要強調的是，這些都是預測挑戰，而不是收集挑戰。因此，當我們花時間了解標準化模式時，這些是預測問題，而不是收集問題。我們仍然在收集這些年份的葡萄酒。

Got it. Understood. Thank you very much.

知道了。明白了。非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Mike Grondahl, Northland Securities.

麥克‧格隆達爾，北國證券。

Hi, guys. Did you say what percentage of forecasted collections you collected in 4Q for the US and for Cabot? Sometimes you've given us that information.

嗨，大家好。您是否說過第四季為美國和卡博特收集的預測收款百分比是多少？有時您已經向我們提供了該資訊。

And then secondly, how much goodwill is left in relation to Cabot or Europe in general?

其次，對於卡博特或整個歐洲還剩下多少善意？

Yes. Let me take the first question. In terms of forecasted collections to Q4 forecast, our actual collections, we did not talk about it. Again, the December 2022 back book at that time, Cabot, MCM, and overall Encore, of course, were all at 96%.

是的。讓我回答第一個問題。至於第四季的預測收款，我們的實際收款，我們沒有談論它。還是那句話，當時的 2022 年 12 月回賬，卡博特、MCM，當然還有整體 Encore，都在 96%。

Now through the year, as we've adjusted our forecast, as you can imagine, within the fourth quarter, MCM was better than 96%. I think may be less than 3% variance to forecast at MCM.

今年以來，正如我們調整了預測一樣，您可以想像，在第四季度，MCM 的表現優於 96%。我認為 MCM 的預測差異可能小於 3%。

In terms of your question on the goodwill, it's going to be in our Q -- K, rather, as we've disclosed. I'll take a stab at it, and if I'm wrong, Jon can correct me. What's remaining as of December 2023 is at Cabot has $457 million in goodwill and about $149 million at MCM. So total of about $606 million in goodwill at this time at the end of December 2023.

就你關於商譽的問題而言，正如我們所披露的那樣，它將出現在我們的 Q-K 中。我會嘗試一下，如果我錯了，喬恩可以糾正我。截至 2023 年 12 月，卡博特剩餘的商譽為 4.57 億美元，MCM 的商譽約為 1.49 億美元。截至 2023 年 12 月底，商譽總額約 6.06 億美元。

Got it. $457 million roughly for Cabot and $149 million for MCM. So there's still a chunk of goodwill.

知道了。 Cabot 大約為 4.57 億美元，MCM 約為 1.49 億美元。所以還是有一點善意的。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

You wrote down about a third of it roughly at Cabot?

你在卡博特粗略地寫下了其中的三分之一？

That's right. It was $672 million at December '22. And then we wrote down to $38 million. There's some FX impact there as well, but small.

這是正確的。截至 22 年 12 月，該數字為 6.72 億美元。然後我們減記至 3800 萬美元。匯率也有一些影響，但很小。

Okay. And you gave a metric about online respondents in the US, I think, with first-time payments, I didn't quite write down the number you gave. I think you said it doubled in the digital channel. But did you also give a percentage?

好的。您給出了有關美國線上受訪者的指標，我認為，對於首次付款，我沒有完全寫下您提供的數字。我想你說過數位管道的數字翻了一番。但你也給了百分比嗎？

Yes. So it doubled over the four years to about 33%. So people were coming into pay for the first time through multiple channels. About a third are coming through the online channel now. And it's pretty consistent in US and UK. So MCM, that number is 33%; Cabot, it's about 32%. So it's pretty much kind of doubled for both over the four years, investing a lot in digital and technology capabilities there.

是的。因此四年內翻了一番，達到 33% 左右。因此，人們第一次透過多種管道支付費用。現在大約有三分之一是透過線上管道進行的。美國和英國的情況非常一致。MCM，這個數字是 33%；卡博特，大約是 32%。因此，在過去的四年裡，它幾乎翻了一番，在數位和技術能力方面投入了大量資金。

Got it. And maybe a question for Jonathan. Jonathan, if I back out the goodwill charge, the impairment of the intangible asset, and then sort of add back the softer collection number, about $1.5, does that sound right for the quarter, kind of on a cleaner basis?

知道了。也許還有一個問題想問喬納森。喬納森，如果我取消商譽費用、無形資產減值，然後添加較軟的收款金額，大約 1.5 美元，這聽起來對本季度合適嗎？

Yes. Actually, if you -- on a quarterly basis, Mike, if I take it to in our deck on page 22, it goes through the add-backs for the quarter. And they total up $12.65 in terms of what the negatives were that we -- that Ashish speck out before and I mentioned as well. And so netting against a quarter, you're about at $1.25.

是的。事實上，如果你——按季度計算，麥克，如果我把它放在第 22 頁的甲板上，它會經歷該季度的回加。就我們之前提到的 Ashish 指出的負面影響而言，它們的總價值為 12.65 美元。因此，以四分之一淨值計算，您的價格約為 1.25 美元。

Got it. Got it. And that includes the recoveries below forecast and the changes in expected?

知道了。知道了。這包括低於預測的復甦和預期的變化？

That's correct. If you took all four items and netted against the GAAP loss per share, you'd net out to $1.25 positive.

這是正確的。如果您考慮所有四項內容並扣除 GAAP 每股虧損，您的淨收益將達到 1.25 美元。

And if I could just add, we also noted on that page, the charge we took for Cabot headcount reduction in Q1. So all of that netted out leads to $1.25.

如果我可以補充一下，我們還在該頁面上指出，我們在第一季為卡博特裁員而收取的費用。因此，所有這些淨額為 1.25 美元。

Okay. That's it for me.

好的。對我來說就是這樣。

John Rowan, Janney Montgomery Scott.

約翰·羅文，珍妮·蒙哥馬利·斯科特。

Evening, guys. Did you give the percent of your ERC that's tied to kind of the underperforming vintages that you called out earlier that are driving kind of the negative revisions?

晚上好，夥計們。您是否給出了與您之前指出的表現不佳年份相關的 ERC 百分比，這些年份導致了負面修正？

John, we did not. All the seasonal charges are around performance over under as well as changes in ERC and timing. So that's the whole range of things that go. 2021 and 2022 vintages were in for MCM was what we highlighted as kind of mid-forecast corrections. And there's still strong multiples.

約翰，我們沒有。所有季節性費用均圍繞著績效上下以及 ERC 和時間安排的變化而定。這就是所有的事情。 2021 年和 2022 年的 MCM 年份是我們強調的中期預測修正。而且仍然有很強的倍數。

I'm just curious how much they are of the overall ERC.

我只是好奇它們佔整個 ERC 的比例是多少。

Our 10-K, we'll have that. Let's me go to the page. If you look at the vintages '21, '22, they have about [$395 million] and [$769 million] in ERC, out of a total of $4.3 billion for MCM.

我們的 10-K，我們會擁有的。讓我去頁面吧。如果你看看 '21、'22 年份，他們在 ERC 中擁有大約 [3.95 億美元] 和 [7.69 億美元]，而 MCM 的總價值為 43 億美元。

All right. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克休斯，Truist 證券公司。

Yes, thank you. Good afternoon. Jonathan, how should we think about the growth in portfolio income if cash collections are growing 8% and if returns on the newer paper are improving? Should the portfolio income grow faster?

是的，謝謝。午安.喬納森，如果現金收入成長 8% 且新票據的回報率正在改善，我們應該如何看待投資組合收入的成長？投資組合收入是否應該成長得更快？

And if you're -- I'm following your line of questioning, can you just repeat it one more time? I just want to make sure I've got it.

如果你──我正在聽你的提問，你能再重複一次嗎？我只是想確保我已經拿到了。

Yeah, just thinking of the portfolio income revenue items. Just trying to think about whether that should grow faster or slower than cash collection.

是的，只是考慮投資組合收入項目。只是想考慮一下它是否應該比現金收集增長得更快或更慢。

So would that grow faster or slower than -- yes. It will be cash driven. I'm thinking through whether -- to be honest with you, Mark, sitting here today, it's unclear to me other than they're both going to grow at a very similar way.

那麼成長速度會比——是的，更快還是更慢。這將是現金驅動的。我正在考慮——說實話，馬克，今天坐在這裡，我不清楚他們是否會以非常相似的方式成長。

And I would since you're adding -- I understand where you're headed, but since you're adding portfolio with higher multiples, you would think on a percentage basis that it would accelerate faster. But that's my intuition. You're correct.

我會因為你正在添加 - 我理解你的發展方向，但由於你正在以更高的倍數添加投資組合，你會認為以百分比為基礎，它會加速得更快。但這是我的直覺。你是對的。

Yes. I guess it all takes into account what's rolling up back in (inaudible), but I'll go with your first (inaudible).

是的。我想這一切都考慮到了卷回的內容（聽不清楚），但我會選擇你的第一個（聽不清楚）。

How about cash efficiency? I think you said the full-year collection costs, expenses are 2% excluding nonrecurring items. How should we think about efficiency or expense growth in 2024 maybe relative to that 8% collections [bogey]?

現金效率如何？我想你說的是全年收款成本、費用是2%，不包括非經常性項目。相對於 8% 的收款率，我們應該如何考慮 2024 年的效率或費用成長[柏忌]？

Yes, Mark, this is Ashish. So we do expect, as I said -- across the board, we expect our operating and financial performance to turn compared to '23. So we expect collections efficiency margin to also improve over the 2023 level.

是的，馬克，這是阿什什。因此，正如我所說，我們確實預計，與 23 年相比，我們預計我們的營運和財務表現將全面改善。因此，我們預期收款效率裕度也將比 2023 年的水準有所改善。

We've not provided a specific number. But we expect it to improve given the collections growth we are seeing, managing our costs and the scale effect that comes with that. But we expect it to grow above 2023 levels.

我們沒有提供具體數字。但考慮到我們看到的館藏成長、管理成本以及隨之而來的規模效應，我們預計它會有所改善。但我們預計其成長將超過 2023 年的水準。

And then do you anticipate your leverage will stay below 3%, 3% or below? Or could it possibly inch up above your outlook range or your preferred range?

那麼您預期您的槓桿率會維持在 3%、3% 甚至更低嗎？或者它可能會略高於您的前景範圍或您的首選範圍嗎？

Well, I think, Mark, as we've said in the past, if we saw some extraordinary opportunities, it could grow above 3%, but we'd always have to see a very clear line back down. And I'd have to say given that we're buying some so heavily in the US, whereas, you know, the speed with which cash comes back is faster than in other parts of the world, we have what I'll call a steady-ish, that's a phrase, level of deployments that we would not move above 3.0. But I don't want to take off the possibility given the opportunity we might make for a brief period of time.

嗯，我認為，馬克，正如我們過去所說，如果我們看到一些非凡的機會，它可能會增長 3% 以上，但我們總是必須看到一條非常明確的回落線。我必須說，考慮到我們在美國大量購買一些東西，而你知道，現金回流的速度比世界其他地方更快，我們有我所說的穩定，這是一個短語，我們不會將部署級別提高到3.0 以上。但我不想放棄這種可能性，因為我們可能會在短時間內獲得機會。

Yes. And then one more, if I might. Ashish, you suggested that the adjustment in the US was really more of a forecasting challenge rather than a collection challenge. Is that to say that the collections performance Q3 to Q4 was reasonably steady?

是的。如果可以的話，然後再來一張。Ashish，您認為美國的調整實際上更多的是預測挑戰，而不是收集挑戰。這是否意味著第三季至第四季的收藏表現相當穩定？

I think you said earlier that the consumer behavior is stable. But just in your curves, you had expected the something else to happen. And so therefore, it's, as you say, forecasting error rather than a collections issue. Is that right?

我想你之前說過消費者行為是穩定的。但就在你的曲線中，你已經預料到會發生其他事情。因此，正如您所說，這是預測錯誤而不是集合問題。是對的嗎？

Yes, Mark. So I would say forecasting adjustments, right, not error. So there's a process. There's principles we have and we monitor certain vintages, certain performance, and make adjustments as appropriate. And sometimes it takes a few quarters to get them adjusted.

是的，馬克。所以我會說預測調整是對的，而不是錯誤。所以有一個過程。我們有一些原則，我們會監控某些年份、某些表現，並做出適當的調整。有時需要幾個季度的時間才能進行調整。

So these adjustments were pretty much in 2021 and -- all of them were actually more than 100% were '21 and '22 vintages, which were purchased at the peak of the pandemic. So we've just been monitoring the performance and adjusting them steadily.

因此，這些調整幾乎是在 2021 年進行的，而且實際上所有這些調整都超過 100% 是在疫情高峰期購買的 21 和 22 年份葡萄酒。所以我們一直在監控效能並穩步調整它們。

And as you saw, we took a larger adjustment. You kind of felt confident of kind of where these are headed. We took that larger adjustment in Q4 and 2023 to get them aligned. So we feel we've captured all that we know to date.

正如你所看到的，我們進行了更大的調整。你對這些的發展方向充滿信心。我們在第四季和 2023 年進行了更大的調整，以使它們保持一致。所以我們覺得我們已經掌握了迄今為止所知道的一切。

There's still very strong vintages, 2.3 times and 2.1 times. So profitable, good collections, just forecasting catching up to kind of post-pandemic world of normal consumer behavior in the US.

仍然有非常強勁的年份，2.3 倍和 2.1 倍。利潤如此之高，收藏品也很好，只是預測美國消費者行為將趕上流行病後的世界。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you. And this concludes the Q&A session. I will turn it back to Mr. Masih for final comments.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我會將其轉回給 Masih 先生以徵求最終意見。

As we close the call, I'd like to reiterate a few important points. We believe Encore is truly differentiated in our sector with a solid track record of operating results and superior capabilities. As the consumer credit cycle continues to turn, the US market is seeing the world's strongest supply growth. This is the portion of the credit cycle we have been waiting for.

在我們結束通話時，我想重申一些重要的觀點。我們相信 Encore 在我們的行業中真正脫穎而出，擁有良好的營運業績記錄和卓越的能力。隨著消費信貸週期持續轉向，美國市場出現了全球最強勁的供應成長。這是我們一直在等待的信貸週期的一部分。

We continue to apply our disciplined portfolio purchasing approach by allocating record amounts of capital to the US market, which has the highest returns. When combined with our effective collections operation, we believe this approach will enable 2024 to be a turning point in our operational and financial results.

我們繼續採用嚴格的投資組合購買方法，向回報率最高的美國市場配置創紀錄數量的資本。當與我們有效的收款業務相結合時，我們相信這種方法將使 2024 年成為我們營運和財務表現的轉捩點。

Thanks for taking the time to join us and we look forward to providing our first-quarter 2024 results in May.

感謝您抽空加入我們，我們期待在 5 月提供 2024 年第一季的業績。

And thank you all for joining our call today. You may now disconnect.

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。