Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. (ECO) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to OET's First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Presentation. We will begin shortly. Aristidis Alafouzos, CEO and Iraklis Sbarounis, CFO of Okeanis Eco Tankers, will take you through the presentation. He will be pleased to address any questions raised at the end of the call. Matters that are forward-looking in nature will be discussed, and actual results may differ from the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements. Please read through the relevant disclaimer on slide 2.

    歡迎參加 OET 2026 年第一季財務業績簡報。我們將很快開始。Okeanis Eco Tankers 的執行長 Aristidis Alafouzos 與財務長 Iraklis Sbarounis 將帶您進行簡報。他將很樂意在電話會議結束時回覆任何提出的問題。我們將討論具前瞻性之事項,實際結果可能與此等前瞻性陳述所反映之預期不同。請閱讀第 2 張投影片上的相關免責聲明。

  • I would like to advise you that the session is being recorded. Aristides will begin the presentation now.

    提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。現在由 Aristides 開始簡報。

  • Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Thank you for taking the time to join our Q1 2026 call. Q1 was a record recorder for our company. And Q1 plus Q2 combined will be stronger than any previous year in our company's history.

    感謝各位撥冗參加我們 2026 年第一季電話會議。第一季對本公司而言創下紀錄。而第一季加上第二季合計,將比本公司歷史上任何過往年度都更強勁。

  • In fact, the potential distributions tied to this half year are approaching our original listing price in 2018. It definitely was and is an exciting, stressful, challenging, and demanding quarter. This cumulative pressure surely overshadowed the pleasure of earning so much for our shareholders, which is regrettable.

    事實上,與本上半年相關的潛在分配金額正接近我們 2018 年原始上市價格。這確實是一個令人振奮、同時也充滿壓力、具挑戰性且要求甚高的一季。這種累積的壓力無疑掩蓋了為股東賺取如此多收益的喜悅,這令人遺憾。

  • Tier 1 began with a sell-off in freight into mid-January, where the market turned by the continued exquisite fundamentals, Venezuela reopening, India diversifying imports, and most importantly, the extremely rapid consolidation of the VLCC market by Saimikor Aponte joint venture.

    第一階段(Tier 1)始於運價在 1 月中旬前的拋售;之後市場在持續優異的基本面、委內瑞拉重新開放、印度分散進口來源,以及最重要的——Saimikor 與 Aponte 合資企業對 VLCC 市場極為迅速的整併——帶動下出現反轉。

  • This strength continued until February 28th, where the war in Iran began, and set off a two, three, four-week period of unprecedented strength in the tanker market overall. Following this explosive and unbelievable period, the market found a balance at extremely elevated rates, where the loss of cargo from Hormuz closure is offset by ton miles, inefficiencies, vessels trapped inside, and vessels outside waiting for the Hormuz to reopen.

    這股強勢一路延續至 2 月 28 日,伊朗戰爭爆發,引發油輪市場整體出現前所未見、為期兩到三到四週的超強行情。在這段爆炸性且令人難以置信的期間之後,市場在極高的運價水準上找到平衡:荷姆茲封鎖造成的貨量損失,被航程里程(ton-miles)增加、效率降低、受困於區內的船舶,以及在區外等待荷姆茲重新開放的船舶所抵銷。

  • Earlier this week, there were over 55 VLCCs in ballast waiting outside the high-risk area for a potential reopening. This doesn't include vessels waiting around Sri Lanka, off India, Singapore, and the Siecorp fleet. Values and time chart rates have also seen consistent and profound strengthening throughout the quarter. We're in a period of record income, and the anchoring bias on values, freight, time chart rates from 20 years ago doesn't hold anymore.

    本週稍早,有超過 55 艘 VLCC 以壓艙狀態在高風險區域外等待可能的重新開放。這還不包括在斯里蘭卡周邊、印度外海、新加坡附近等待的船舶,以及 Siecorp 船隊。本季船舶資產價值與期租(time charter)租金亦持續且顯著走強。我們正處於收入創紀錄的時期,而以 20 年前的價值、運價與期租租金作為錨定的偏誤已不再適用。

  • The market needs to recognize this. What is the natural ceiling where rates and values can go? Internally at OET and looking at Q2, one of our greatest challenges going forward is keeping tonnage available for the immediate exposure to a hormone reopening, while optimizing our performance.

    市場需要認清這一點。運價與資產價值自然的上限究竟在哪裡?在 OET 內部並展望第二季,我們未來最大的挑戰之一,是在維持可用運力以即時承接荷姆茲重新開放所帶來的曝險之同時,仍能最佳化我們的營運表現。

  • I hand you over to Iraklis to go through the financials.

    接下來交由 Iraklis 為各位說明財務數字。

  • Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

    Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Aristidis. Let's have a look at this record quarter. We achieved fleet-wide time charter equivalent of about $93,000 per vessel per day. That's $106,000 per day on our spot, and $104,000 on all operating VLCCs days, and $82,000 on our serious max operating days, all being spotted.

    謝謝你,Aristidis。我們來看看這個創紀錄的季度。我們達成全船隊等同期租(TCE)約每艘每日 93,000 美元。其中現貨船隊為每日 106,000 美元;所有營運中的 VLCC 船日為每日 104,000 美元;而所有營運中的 Suezmax 船日為每日 82,000 美元,且皆為現貨市場承租。

  • We report adjusted EBITDA of $110 million, adjusted net profit of $89 million, and adjusted EPS of $2.33. This is based on our average share comfort report. Our board declared a 16th consecutive quarterly dividend of $2 per share. This represents 88% of our reported net income, i.e. On our current fully diluted share account post our January equity transaction.

    我們公告調整後 EBITDA 為 1.10 億美元,調整後淨利為 8,900 萬美元,調整後每股盈餘(EPS)為 2.33 美元。此係以我們平均流通股數計算。董事會宣告第 16 次連續季度股利,每股 2 美元。這相當於我們公告淨利的 88%,亦即以我們 1 月完成股權交易後、目前完全稀釋後的股數計算。

  • This is the highest quarterly dividend amount since the company's inception, although I've shown everyone's already modelling our second quarter. Over the last four quarters, we have distributed $5 per share, or 96% of our reported net income for the future.

    這是公司成立以來最高的單季股利金額,儘管我知道大家已經在建模我們第二季的表現。過去四個季度,我們已配發每股 5 美元,約為我們公告淨利的 96%。

  • In January, we executed another successful and accretive equity base of $130 million in gross proceeds against. Since our IPO in Oslo, we have distributed approximately two and a half times our initial market cap with over 550 million paid in dividends. Since we have had a fully delivered fleet in 2022, we have paid out 91% of our reported net income. Clearly demonstrating our commitment to distributing value to our shareholders.

    1 月,我們完成另一筆成功且具增益(accretive)的股權募資,總募集金額為 1.30 億美元。自我們在奧斯陸 IPO 以來,我們已配發約為初始市值 2.5 倍的股利,累計股利支付超過 5.50 億美元。自 2022 年我們船隊全數交付到位以來,我們已配發公告淨利的 91%。清楚展現我們將價值回饋股東的承諾。

  • Slide 6, we show the detail of our income statement for the quarter. TCE revenues stood at $132.2 million. At quarter end, we had $176.5 million of cash. That included a portion of the equity earmarked for the acquisition of Initios Vican and Initios Push.

    第 6 張投影片,我們呈現本季損益表的細節。TCE 營收為 1.322 億美元。截至季末,我們持有現金 1.765 億美元。其中包含一部分股權資金,已指定用於收購 Initios Vican 與 Initios Push。

  • We also had almost $80 million in trade receivables. Our restricted cash figure as of March 31st includes an amount of $45 million we have deposited on short-term against one of our loan facilities, which has the feature that reduces the interest paid to just 0.5% all-in, on a net basis, providing a better return than what we can achieve under our time deposit rates. We may roll forwards as cash, characterized as restricted, or a different amount, on a short-term basis, depending on our cash flow means and applicable rates.

    我們亦有將近 8,000 萬美元的應收帳款。截至 3 月 31 日的受限制現金包含 4,500 萬美元:我們以短期存放方式存入某一項貸款融資安排之下,該安排具備將實付利率在淨額基礎上降至全包 0.5% 的特性,提供的報酬優於我們在定期存款利率下可取得的水準。我們可能依據現金流需求與適用利率,在短期內將其展期為受限制現金,或調整為不同金額。

  • Our balance sheet debt was $683 million. Our book leverage stands at 41%, while our market-adjusted net NTV base's latest broker values and pro forma for the acquisitions in recent transactions is now just over 30%. On Slide 8, looking at our fleets, I'm pleased to show the addition of our most recently acquired modern and high-spec vessels. We have a total of 16 vessels on the water. H series maxes and ATMCCs, with an average age of only six years, which will further improve once we get delivery shortly of the NISOS Digami and NISOS Boost currently under construction suffering. As a reminder, from a maintenance CapEx perspective, our only drive for 2026 is that of the MIGLOS 10-year survey.

    我們資產負債表上的負債為 6.83 億美元。帳面槓桿比率為 41%;而以最新經紀商估值並納入近期交易中收購案之備考(pro forma)後、以市價調整的淨 NTV 基礎計算,現已略高於 30%。在第 8 張投影片,檢視我們的船隊,我很高興展示我們最新收購的現代化高規格船舶加入。我們共有 16 艘船在水上營運。包含 H 系列 Suezmax 與 ATMCC,平均船齡僅 6 年;待目前在建、即將交付的 NISOS Digami 與 NISOS Boost 交船後,平均船齡將進一步改善。提醒各位,從維修資本支出(maintenance CapEx)角度來看,我們 2026 年唯一的坞修項目是 MIGLOS 的 10 年特檢。

  • Slide 9, moving on to our capital structure. This is a quarterly update that I have been personally looking forward to for a while. We recently announced three new financings for four vessels as follows. We purchased back from its sale and leaseback and refinanced the Miso Line with a new $50 million bank loan maturing in seven years, priced at sulphur plus 125 basis points. This transaction closed last week.

    第 9 張投影片,接著看我們的資本結構。這是一項季度更新,我個人期待已久。我們近期宣布三筆新融資,涵蓋四艘船舶,內容如下。我們將 Miso Line 自售後回租安排中買回並再融資,取得一筆 5,000 萬美元的新銀行貸款,7 年到期,利率為 SOFR 加 125 個基點。此交易已於上週完成交割。

  • We will purchase back from its sale and leaseback and refinance the Miso Descopico with another $50 million bank loan maturing in nine years, priced at SOFR plus 130 basis points. This transaction is expected to close in early June.

    我們也將 Miso Descopico 自售後回租安排中買回並再融資,取得另一筆 5,000 萬美元的銀行貸款,9 年到期,利率為 SOFR 加 130 個基點。此交易預計於 6 月初完成交割。

  • We have also signed a $90 million backlog for the Nisos Tigani and Nisos Boost, maturing in eight years, priced at software plus 120 basis points. The Tigani will close in a couple of weeks and the boost in early July. We have taken advantage of the very competitive financing market and our financiers appetize to transact with us.

    我們亦已為 Nisos Tigani 與 Nisos Boost 簽署 9,000 萬美元的銀行貸款,8 年到期,利率為 SOFR 加 120 個基點。Tigani 將於數週內完成交割,而 Boost 將於 7 月初完成交割。我們已善用極具競爭力的融資市場,以及融資方與我們交易的高度意願。

  • Our most recent transactions have demonstrated the relationships and track records we have developed in two key banking markets for us, in Greece and in Taiwan. We now have staggered maturities all the way through 2035, extremely attractive pricing, and we have finally put behind us all our legacy savings expense.

    我們最近的交易展現了我們在兩個對我們而言關鍵的銀行市場——希臘與台灣——所建立的關係與往績。我們如今的到期日已階梯式分散一路延伸至 2035 年,定價極具吸引力,並且我們終於把所有歷史遺留的儲蓄費用包袱拋諸腦後。

  • On slide 10, we look at our pricing on a vessel by vessel. All our loans are now priced below 2% with a weighted average margin of 1.47%. That's an improvement of more than 200 basis bonds compared to where we were prior to the labour to software transition in mid-2023.

    在第10頁投影片,我們以逐艘船舶的方式檢視我們的定價。我們所有貸款目前的定價都低於2%,加權平均利差為1.47%。相較於我們在2023年年中進行勞務轉軟體轉型之前的水準,這改善了超過200個基點。

  • On a consolidated debt of over $750 million, that's performance for the upcoming drawdowns, that's an impact of more than $15 million a year, straight into the bottom line. Quarter on quarter, for a while, we have been seeing the material improvement into our interest expense, and starting in Q3 of this year, when all this we have concluded. We expect to see the full effect.

    以超過7.5億美元的合併債務計算,這對即將到來的提款表現而言,每年對損益表的影響超過1,500萬美元,直接反映在淨利。就季度環比而言,一段時間以來我們已看到利息費用出現顯著改善,而從今年第三季開始,當這一切都完成後。我們預期將看到完整效果。

  • We're extremely happy with where we are today, but of course, by nature, we continuously monitor the market for opportunities that may further optimize our structure, trying to improve one or all aspects of our debt structure, whether it's pricing, tenure, amortization profile, or other terms that might add flexibility and agility.

    我們對目前的狀況非常滿意,但當然,基於本質上我們會持續監控市場,尋找可進一步優化我們結構的機會,嘗試改善我們債務結構的一個或多個面向,無論是定價、期限、攤還曲線,或其他可能增加彈性與靈活性的條款。

  • I will now turn it back to Aristides for the commercial market update.

    我現在把時間交回給Aristides,請他進行商業市場更新。

  • Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Thank you, Iraklis, and great job on the Refis. Now, as I said during the intro, Q1 was a record quarter for the company. Amazing fundamentals, Venezuela reopening, the consolidation of the VLCC market, and likely the biggest shock to oil trading in the past 50 years all converged in the same three months.

    謝謝你,Iraklis,再融資做得很棒。如同我在開場時所說,第一季是公司創紀錄的一季。極佳的基本面、委內瑞拉重新開放、VLCC市場的整合,以及可能是過去50年石油交易最大的衝擊,全都在同一個三個月內同時發生。

  • We concluded fixtures in Q1, mostly realizing Q2, that we could never have previously fathomed, absolutely remarkable.

    我們在第一季完成了租船合約(fixtures),多數反映在第二季,其水準是我們過去根本難以想像的,確實非常驚人。

  • Fleet-wide TCE came in at $93,100 per day. With 106,400 on our spot VLCCs and 81,600 on the Suezmaxes. And we achieved perfect utilization across the fleet. One commercial mistake I want to flag was fixing the Nissos Nikouria for one year at a net rate of $90,000 per day.

    全船隊TCE達到每日93,100美元。其中,我們的現貨VLCC為106,400美元,Suezmax為81,600美元。而且我們在整個船隊達成了完美的使用率。我想指出一個商業上的失誤:我們把Nissos Nikouria以一年期、淨日租金90,000美元的價格固定下來。

  • With hindsight, the market gave us much more, spot market that is. Separately, the Nissos Nikouria is currently stuck inside the Aegean and we have an additional line for her on the table. She is being compensated on a commercially agreed rate while she waits to get out.

    事後看來,市場(也就是現貨市場)給了我們更多。另外,Nissos Nikouria目前被困在愛琴海內,我們也已在桌上為她安排了額外的一條航線。在等待離開期間,她會依照商業協議的費率獲得補償。

  • We took delivery of the Nisos keros and Nisos serifopoula also in this quarter. The market was so firm that we were able to fix cargoes from West Africa on our first voyages and get them into our trading patterns. But the ballast voyage from Korea to West Africa was far longer than the Leyden, which did negatively impact our Swiss Max earnings.

    本季我們也接收了Nisos keros與Nisos serifopoula。市場非常強勁,使我們能在首航就自西非承攬貨載,並將其納入我們的交易航線模式。但從韓國到西非的壓艙航程比Leyden長得多,這確實對我們的Suezmax收益造成了負面影響。

  • On the Suezmaxes, we focused on trading the ships in the Atlantic Basin. We did not fix any vessels into the east and kept the voyages shorter, while focusing on optimization in our preferred trades. On the VLCCs, early in the quarter, we committed to longer voyages to lock in higher earnings, balancing with some shorter voyage in the east to keep our fixing exposure intact within the quarter.

    在Suezmax方面,我們專注於在大西洋盆地交易這些船舶。我們沒有把任何船舶固定到東向航線,並縮短航程,同時專注於在我們偏好的交易中進行最佳化。在VLCC方面,季度初我們承諾較長航程以鎖定更高收益,同時在東向搭配一些較短航程,以維持本季內的租約敞口。

  • The strategy is what ultimately led to poor Caros being trapped inside the Hormuz. But the same strategy is what set up the Q2 numbers. Comparing our Q1 against the peers who have already reported, we are at 28.5% higher on our VLCCs and 20% higher on our Suezmaxes. Looking at our guidance for Q2, I believe it is likely that our Q2 earnings will be larger than any previous year's annual earnings.

    這個策略最終導致可憐的Caros被困在荷姆茲海峽內。但同樣的策略也為第二季的數字奠定了基礎。將我們第一季與已公布的同業相比,我們的VLCC高出28.5%,Suezmax高出20%。就我們對第二季的指引來看,我認為第二季的獲利很可能會超過以往任何一年的全年獲利。

  • And whether that holds up on Q2 alone or not, Q1 and Q2 certainly combined will be. As of today, 56% of our available VLCC spot days are fixed at $223,900 per day, and 60% of our Suezmaxes days at $187,300 per day, giving us a fleet-wide average of about $202,900 per day on the fixed portion, roughly half of the quarter.

    不論這是否僅在第二季單季成立,第一季與第二季合計肯定會是如此。截至今日,我們可用的VLCC現貨天數中有56%已以每日223,900美元固定,Suezmax天數中有60%已以每日187,300美元固定,使得已固定部分的全船隊平均約為每日202,900美元,約占本季的一半。

  • Comparing Q2 against our peers with reported earnings, we are about 45% higher on our VLCCs and 24% higher on our Suezmaxes. We were in the lucky position of having significant exposure right around the spike in mid-March for voyages that were affected in Q2.We’re able to fix 2 ships to load in Yanbu at huge rates, and we fixed the Nissos Despotiko on a long-haul voyage right at the top of the market.

    將第二季與已公布獲利的同業相比,我們的VLCC約高出45%,Suezmax約高出24%。我們很幸運在3月中旬的飆升附近有相當大的敞口,這些航次在第二季受到影響。我們得以以極高的費率固定兩艘船在Yanbu裝貨,並在市場頂部把Nissos Despotiko固定在一條長航程上。

  • On the Suezmax side, the short trading pattern allowed us to do multiple runs into a rapidly appreciating market. Some of the pictures concluded those weeks were frankly unbelievable. One additional sewage vaccine is scheduled for delivery during the quarter, which will further reinforce our exposure and give us exposure to a potential Hormuz reopening later in this quarter.

    在Suezmax方面,短程交易模式讓我們能在快速上漲的市場中進行多次往返。那幾週完成的一些成交價格坦白說令人難以置信。本季還預計交付一艘額外的Suezmax,這將進一步強化我們的敞口,並讓我們在本季稍晚可能出現的荷姆茲重新開放中獲得敞口。

  • Moving on to slide 14, we reuse this slide every quarter and I'm very proud of it. Almost as proud as he got this is of his refinancing slide. We had a gain Quarter-on-quarter over $25 million just on our commercial outperformance. I hope an analyst from Trade win picks this up, but if our fleet earned the average of our peers who have reported in Q1, our EPS would be over $0.65 less. Since Q4 2019, we have generated approximately $256 million of cumulative outperformance versus our peers.

    接著看第14頁投影片,我們每季都會重用這張投影片,我對它非常自豪。幾乎就像他對自己的再融資投影片一樣自豪。僅就我們的商業超額表現,季度環比就增加了超過2,500萬美元。我希望Trade win的分析師能注意到這點:如果我們的船隊在第一季只賺到已公布同業的平均水準,我們的每股盈餘(EPS)將少超過0.65美元。自2019年第四季以來,我們相較同業累計創造了約2.56億美元的超額表現。

  • On slide 15, I take two things away from this chart. Firstly, we have had consistently elevated earnings going back to September of last year. That underpins the fundamental strength of the current market, a strength that predates the geopolitical shock and has only amplified by it. And secondly, the consistent strength of the market following the loss of the AG boroughs.

    在第15頁投影片,從這張圖我得到兩個重點。第一,自去年9月以來,我們的獲利一直維持在偏高水準。這支撐了當前市場的基本面強度;這種強度早於地緣政治衝擊就已存在,且在衝擊之下只被進一步放大。第二,在AG航線運力流失之後,市場仍展現出持續的強勢。

  • The message of this chart is that the disruption created the spike, but the underlying market has held the level. To frame the scale of this, roughly 14.9 million barrels per day of crude exports and around 35% of global crude ton-miles normally transit the Hormuz. This is the largest single choice point shock the tanker market has ever absorbed.

    這張圖要傳達的訊息是:擾動造成了尖峰,但底層市場仍守住了該水準。為了說明其規模,正常情況下約有每日1,490萬桶原油出口,以及約35%的全球原油噸海里會通過荷姆茲。這是油輪市場有史以來所吸收的最大單一咽喉點(chokepoint)衝擊。

  • The well-known effects are visible on this page, extended ton-miles, vessels trapped inside the AG, and the redirection of Saudi and UAE volumes from Yanbu and the Sea of Oman, which has been the single biggest mitigating factor since the closure. I wanna highlight one other factor that I think is underappreciated by the market, the number of VLCCs waiting outside the AG for a potential reopening.

    本頁可見眾所周知的影響:噸海里拉長、船舶被困在AG內,以及沙烏地與阿聯將貨量改由Yanbu與阿曼海出運;自封閉以來,這一直是最重要的單一緩解因素。我還想強調另一個我認為市場低估的因素:在AG外等待可能重新開放的VLCC數量。

  • Earlier this week, we counted 55 VLCCs in ballast sitting outside the high-risk area hoping for the reopening. The figure does not include, as I mentioned earlier, vessels positioned further afield by Sri Lanka, off India, Singapore or the Singapore fleet. When you put it all together, 63 laden VLCCs trapped inside the AG, over 55 waiting outside of the AG, and roughly 36 holding at Yanbu. This is 155 VLCCs effectively removed from spot supply.

    本週稍早,我們統計有55艘VLCC在高風險區外以壓艙狀態停留,期待重新開放。如我先前提到,這個數字不包含更遠處部署的船舶,例如在斯里蘭卡附近、印度外海、新加坡或新加坡船隊周邊。綜合來看,有63艘滿載VLCC被困在AG內、超過55艘在AG外等待,另約36艘在Yanbu待命。這等於有155艘VLCC實質上自現貨供給中被移除。

  • On a global VLCC fleet of 920 vessels. That is approximately 17% of the worldwide fleet, either trapped or waiting. If we assume the compliant fleet is around 700 vessels, and this is what affects us, that jumps to 22%. That is a massive restriction on compliance supply and is very supportive of freight.

    在全球VLCC船隊共920艘的背景下。這約占全球船隊的17%,不是被困就是在等待。如果我們假設合規船隊約為700艘,而這才是影響我們的部分,比例就上升到22%。這對合規供給是非常巨大的限制,並對運價形成強力支撐。

  • One more dynamic to note. In recent weeks previously, we have seen reduced interest from Asian buyers. For Atlantic barrels, which in my view reflects an expectation of the hormones reopening. The longer that reopening is delayed, the more those Asian buyers will be forced back into the market from the Atlantic, which we are seeing this week, which would tighten supply further and push rates higher again.

    還有一個動態值得注意。在最近幾週,我們看到來自亞洲買家的興趣有所下降。就大西洋航線的貨油而言,我認為這反映了市場預期霍爾木茲海峽將重新開放。重新開放延遲得越久,這些亞洲買家就越會被迫回到大西洋市場採購——我們本週正看到這種情況——這將進一步收緊供給,並再次推升運價。

  • Now looking forward on slide 17, we lay out three scenarios we see for how these resolves. I want to be clear upfront; we do not take a view on the macro conditions to deteriorate. Our scenarios are about the shape of the Hormuz outcome and not about the. All three paths are supported to anchors. What changes between them is the timing, the shape, and the duration of the strength.

    接著看第17頁投影片,我們列出了三種我們認為可能的情境,來說明這些問題將如何解決。我想先說清楚;我們不對宏觀環境是否會惡化做判斷。我們的情境是關於霍爾木茲結果的樣態,而不是關於宏觀。這三條路徑都有其支撐的錨點。它們之間的差異在於時點、形狀,以及強勢持續的時間。

  • Before I walk through them, the key number to anchor is that the pre-destruction Hormuz exports were around 14.9 million barrels per day. The total pipeline rerouting capacity is only around 7.4 million barrels per day. That leaves a structural shortfall of about 7.5 million barrels per day, which we can only clear via long-haul ton-miles by sea. That gap is what underwrites the demand backdrop in every scenario.

    在我逐一說明之前,首先要錨定的關鍵數字是:在破壞發生之前,經由霍爾木茲的出口量約為每日1,490萬桶。而管線改道的總容量只有約每日740萬桶。因此結構性缺口約為每日750萬桶,只能透過海運的長航程噸英里來補足。這個缺口是在每一種情境下支撐需求背景的核心。

  • Scenario one, continued closure. Pipeline rerouting stay maxed out. Asian inventories continue to drain. Western barrels reroute to Asia, and the trapped tonnage inside the AG persists. The result is long haul ton miles maximized, and the compliant fleet supply is structurally constrained. The only meaningful risk in this path is demand destruction if it drags along for too long.

    情境一:持續封閉。管線改道維持滿載。亞洲庫存持續消耗。西方貨源改道流向亞洲,而困在阿拉伯灣(AG)內的船噸仍然存在。結果是長航程噸英里被最大化,且合規船隊供給在結構上受限。此路徑唯一有意義的風險,是若拖得太久可能出現需求破壞。

  • Scenario two, partial reopening. Iraqi exports are above, and others as well. There's roughly 3.1 million barrels per day of capacity that could come back real quickly. Floating storage gradually released into the market, and the Yanbu and Fujara rerouting continue at capacity. There are less western barrels flowing east, but vessel repositioning will affect supply due to vessel repositioning. The whole scenario demands on transit normalization holding.

    情境二:部分重新開放。伊拉克出口恢復在上方,其他國家也一樣。大約有每日310萬桶的產能可以很快回來。浮式儲油逐步釋放回市場,而延布(Yanbu)與富查伊拉(Fujara)的改道仍以滿載運行。流向東方的西方貨源減少,但船舶重新部署將因船舶重新部署而影響供給。整個情境取決於運輸在途的正常化能否維持。

  • Scenario three, full reopening Middle East exports normalize over, let's say, about three months, and importantly, that is the same dynamic with south Venezuela. Any national oil company linked sanctioned tonnage might find its way back, but the broader fleet stays isolated.

    情境三:全面重新開放。中東出口在大約三個月內恢復正常;而且重要的是,這與南委內瑞拉的動態相同。任何與國家石油公司相關、受制裁連結的船噸可能會回到市場,但更廣泛的船隊仍將被隔離在外。

  • On top of that, you would see Asian and SPR restocking demand coming through. There is initial spike as oil stores drains and restocking provides a ton mile tail in support of demand, and returning supply moderates rates over the medium term supported. We assume that cargoes will only be lifted on conventional vessels.

    此外,你會看到亞洲以及戰略石油儲備(SPR)的補庫需求出現。在油品庫存被消耗、補庫提供噸英里尾風以支撐需求時,會有一個初期尖峰;而供給回歸則在中期使運價趨於溫和。我們假設貨載只會由傳統船舶承運。

  • On slide 18, beyond the form was dynamic and directly linked to the current situation is another structural tailwind sitting in plain sight, inventories. OECD commercial inventories have been drawing and are sitting well below the five-year range, as you see on the right-hand side of the graph. And to this, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Inventory bills translate directly into tanker demand, which we read as positive.

    在第18頁投影片,除了與當前情勢直接相關的霍爾木茲動態之外,還有另一個顯而易見的結構性順風:庫存。OECD商業庫存一直在下降,且如右側圖表所示,已遠低於五年區間。再加上美國戰略石油儲備(SPR)。庫存回補會直接轉化為油輪需求,我們解讀為正面。

  • Slide 19, the order book. A topic that is starting to become relevant, and it wasn't a few quarters ago. Yes, the order book is up. The VLCCs stand at 27.5% of the fleet. Suezmaxes is at 28.5%. Although about 3.3 percentage points of the Suezmaxes number is shuttle takers.

    第19頁:新造船訂單(order book)。這個主題開始變得重要,而在幾個季度前還不是。是的,訂單量上升了。VLCC的新船訂單約占船隊的27.5%。Suezmax約為28.5%。不過其中約有3.3個百分點的Suezmax數字其實是穿梭油輪(shuttle tankers)。

  • On the face of it, that is a large number, and I understand the reflex. There's an old saying in shipping that, given enough time and a good market, owners will find a way to shoot themselves in the foot by over boarding. And I will be first to admit historically the same has nothing wrong.

    表面上看,這是一個很大的數字,我理解大家的直覺反應。航運業有句老話:只要時間夠長、行情夠好,船東總會想辦法用過度下單來「搬石頭砸自己的腳」。我也會第一個承認,歷史上這種情況並非沒有發生。

  • But I would argue the cycle is slightly different, and the reason is on the right-hand side of the page, and is supported by the next page as well, where we dive a little bit deeper into the actual numbers. Even today, in '26, 48% of the global VLCC fleet is over the age of 15, 22% is over 20. By 2030, those numbers grow to 61% over 15, and 41% over 20.

    但我認為這一輪週期略有不同,原因在本頁右側,而且下一頁也會支持這個觀點,我們會更深入看實際數字。即使到今天、到2026年,全球VLCC船隊中有48%船齡超過15年,22%超過20年。到2030年,這些比例將上升到:超過15年為61%,超過20年為41%。

  • The Suezmaxes picture is essentially the same. Now, if you also add the shadow or dark fleet, which sits within the high-rate bracket of the, of the above, we know for certainty that most of the vessels will never come back.

    Suezmax的情況基本相同。此外,如果再把影子船隊或暗黑船隊(shadow/dark fleet)納入考量——它們位於上述高運價區間之內——我們可以確定,多數船舶將永遠不會回來。

  • When you take those vessels out of the supply equation altogether, and we should, because they’re not competing for the same cargoes as we are, the compliance supply picture gets meaningfully tighter. Yes, the order book is up, but the aging fleet plus the dark fleet isolation gives you, in my view, a structurally tight compliant market for the next couple of years.

    當你把這些船舶完全從供給方程式中剔除——而我們也應該這麼做,因為它們並不與我們競爭相同的貨載——合規供給的局面就會顯著收緊。是的,訂單量上升了,但老化船隊加上暗黑船隊的隔離,在我看來,將使未來幾年合規市場在結構上維持緊俏。

  • The numbers on the next slide make this clear. Slide 20 takes the point I just made and puts it into absolute numbers, which I think is the cleanest way to see it. On the VLCCs, fleet of 919 vessels today, order book of 250. By 2028, cumulative deliveries, including what has already arrived year to date, gets you to 184 vessels. \

    下一頁的數字會把這點說得很清楚。第20頁把我剛才的觀點用絕對數字呈現,我認為這是最清楚的看法。以VLCC為例:目前船隊919艘,訂單簿250艘。到2028年,累計交付(包含今年迄今已交付的)將達184艘。\

  • Over the same period, 265 vessels will be over 15-years-old, while 124 will be over 20 and 90 will be over 25. By 2030, you have 250 cumulative deliveries against 375 vessels over 15 and 180 20+. Put simply, 250 deliveries chasing a retirement queue of 375 ships.

    在同一期間,將有265艘船齡超過15年,其中124艘超過20年、90艘超過25年。到2030年,累計交付250艘,對應的是船齡超過15年的375艘,以及超過20年的180艘以上。簡單說,就是250艘交付在追逐一個有375艘船的退役隊列。

  • The order book doesn’t cap the aging fleet. On the Suezmax, the same story. By 2030, 204 deliveries against 274 vessels over the age of 20. That is the structural tightness I was describing about in the previous slide in absolute numbers. To tie the above all together, on the demand side, we have the Hormuz ton-mile reset, inventory restocking ahead, plus all the fundamentals that existed prior to the Hormuz situation.

    訂單簿並不能「封頂」老化船隊的影響。Suezmax也是同樣的故事。到2030年,交付204艘,對應船齡超過20年的274艘。這就是我在上一頁用絕對數字所描述的結構性緊俏。把以上全部串起來:在需求端,我們有霍爾木茲噸英里重置、即將到來的庫存回補,以及霍爾木茲事件之前就已存在的所有基本面。

  • On the supply side, we have a record order book that still does not capture a wave of vessels reaching the end of their useful life. Both sides of the equation point towards the right. I’ll pass it to the moderator for the Q&A.

    在供給端,我們有創紀錄的訂單簿,但仍不足以涵蓋一波船舶走到使用壽命終點的浪潮。方程式兩端都指向右側。我把時間交給主持人進行問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Christian Skovsted, Arctic Securities - Analyst

    (接線員指示)Christian Skovsted,Arctic Securities - 分析師

  • Christian Skovsted - Analyst

    Christian Skovsted - Analyst

  • Hello, guys. Thank you for taking my question and congrats on a record Q2 bookings. Really impressive. It has been quite wise to keep the fleet open, what we see now is the term rates are sort of creeping back up again now. We see 1-year TC on VLCCs around $120. My question now is more on commercial strategy. Would you be keen to have more coverage, given that you targeted quite right in 2020 would be interesting to get your take on it.

    各位好。謝謝讓我提問,也恭喜你們第二季訂艙創下紀錄。真的令人印象深刻。維持船隊開放的策略相當明智;我們現在看到期租運價似乎又開始緩步回升。我們看到VLCC的一年期租(1-year TC)大約在120美元。我現在的問題比較偏向商業策略。鑑於你們在2020年的判斷相當精準,你們會不會傾向提高覆蓋率(coverage)?也很想聽聽你們的看法。

  • Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Hi, Christopher, thank you for your question. I mean, we even mentioned on the call the mistake of fixing the Nissos Nikouria on the 90,000 per year. So, I think at this point, the time charter market isn't that interesting for us. And especially given the reopening of the Hormuz and how aggressively the rates can go up in that case,

    嗨,Christopher,謝謝你的提問。我的意思是,我們甚至在電話會議上也提到,把 Nissos Nikouria 以每年 90,000 的價格鎖定是個錯誤。所以,我認為在這個時間點,定期租船(time charter)市場對我們來說並不是那麼有吸引力。尤其是考量到荷姆茲海峽重新開放,以及在那種情況下運價可能會多麼激進地上漲,

  • it will probably Just one voyage at those rates, it will outperform even in the moderated spot environment afterwards anyone-year time charter. But just to add some more color to your question, we're also seeing significant increase in longer-term charter rates on all sizes, and I think the BL16 market for three years should be closer to the 70,000 marks.

    在那樣的運價水準下,可能只要跑一趟航次,就會勝過之後即便在較溫和的現貨環境下的任何一年期定期租船。不過為了補充你問題的更多背景,我們也看到各船型的長期租約租金都顯著上升,我認為 BL16 市場三年期應該更接近 70,000 的水準。

  • Christian Skovsted - Analyst

    Christian Skovsted - Analyst

  • Great, okay, thanks.

    很好,好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Liam Burke, B. Riley Securities - Analyst

    (接線員指示) Liam Burke,B. Riley Securities - 分析師

  • Liam Burke - Analyst

    Liam Burke - Analyst

  • Yes. Thank you. Can we go back to your scenario three of a post, Strait of Hormuz opening? Would you anticipate in, whenever more normal times occur, that there’d be more demand out of the Atlantic because buyers of crude would like to diversify away from the Mid East? What would that mean for the demand on the Suezmax side?

    是的。謝謝。我們可以回到你提到的情境三,也就是荷姆茲海峽開放之後的情境嗎?你是否預期在更正常的時期出現時,因為原油買家想要降低對中東的依賴、改為多元化來源,會使得大西洋地區的需求增加?那對 Suezmax 端的需求意味著什麼?

  • Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Sorry, Liam, can you repeat your question? It came in a bit mouthful.

    抱歉,Liam,你可以重複一下你的問題嗎?剛剛聽起來有點一口氣太多內容。

  • Liam Burke - Analyst

    Liam Burke - Analyst

  • Okay, sure. In scenario three, you discussed a scenario where the Strait of Hormoz is completely reopened. What I was asking was, is there a situation where buyers of crude would want to diversify away from the Mideast, even with an open strait, and buy more out of the Atlantic, and what that would mean for the Suezmax understanding the low order book relative to the age of the fleet?

    好的,當然。在情境三中,你討論的是荷姆茲海峽完全重新開放的情況。我想問的是:即使海峽開放,原油買家是否仍可能想要降低對中東的依賴、改從大西洋地區買更多原油?

  • Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Thank you, Liam. I got the question now.

    謝謝你,Liam。我現在理解你的問題了。

  • It's a good question. I think we've also, speaking to some refiners and charters and reading news in the media, it's obvious that some of the Asian countries that have a very high reliance on AG crude will need to diversify going forwards. And like for example, the Japanese have 90% of their crude imports from AG. That will have to meaningfully come down.

    這是個好問題。我想我們也和一些煉油廠與租家聊過,並且從媒體新聞中看到,很明顯有些高度依賴阿拉伯灣(AG)原油的亞洲國家,未來必須進行多元化。例如,日本有 90% 的原油進口來自阿拉伯灣。這個比例必須顯著下降。

  • And. It may come from Imports from West Africa or Brazil or the US Gulf so I think at at the beginning at least of the Hormuz reopening everyone will buy whatever crude they can get their hands on but then as we move into more the medium term where there's like more strategic and medium term approach towards buying crude they're going to start diversifying their purchases now in terms of the Suezmaxes.

    而且。這些替代來源可能來自西非、巴西或美國墨西哥灣沿岸(US Gulf)的進口,所以我認為至少在荷姆茲重新開放初期,大家會先買到手上能拿到的任何原油;但當我們進入更中期、也就是採購原油更具策略性與中期規劃的階段時,他們就會開始分散採購。至於 Suezmax 方面。

  • All this reopening and this diversification of crude purchases for strategic geopolitical reasons creates inefficiencies and the Suezmaxes is often a very versatile vessel that does well when the market is inefficient and there's trading patterns that are less accustomed to and people need options and there's different ports.

    這種重新開放,以及出於地緣政治策略而進行的原油採購多元化,會造成市場效率下降(產生摩擦)。Suezmax 往往是非常多用途的船型,當市場變得沒那麼有效率、交易路徑不那麼固定、大家需要更多選項且涉及不同港口時,Suezmax 的表現通常會很好。

  • So, I think that generally on a relative basis over the past five years, we've been able to outperform the VLCCs in our Suezmaxes. And I do think that the SWUS Maxes will still be very strong assets going forwards compared to both the larger and smaller group takers.

    所以,我認為一般而言,從相對表現來看,過去五年我們的 Suezmax 一直能夠跑贏 VLCC。而且我確實認為,與更大或更小的油輪族群相比,Suezmax 未來仍會是非常強勢的資產。

  • Liam Burke - Analyst

    Liam Burke - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • And then just quickly, your operating cash flow should probably be stronger in the second quarter. And I know you're taking two deliveries of two Suezmaxes later in the year. But post-delivery, your capital allocation, I presume, is going to remain the same with the priority on returning cash to shareholders, or is there any thought about accelerating debt reduction?

    另外很快問一下,你們第二季的營運現金流應該會更強。我知道你們今年稍晚會交付兩艘 Suezmax。但在交付之後,你們的資本配置我推測仍會以回饋股東為優先、維持相同策略;還是你們有考慮加速降槓桿、提前減債?

  • Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

    Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hi, Liam, it's Iraklis. Absolutely our capital allocation policy will remain the same. We have been committed to distributing out as much as possible within the constraints of our capital structure, of course.

    嗨,Liam,我是 Iraklis。完全正確,我們的資本配置政策會維持不變。當然,在我們資本結構的限制之內,我們一直致力於盡可能多地進行分配。

  • As we have explained in the past, it's not possible for us to maintain 100% of our EPS distribution. Given our capital structure and cashflow, but we aspire to increase that as much as possible. And we have been averaging out around 9% for a while. Obviously, we have added already Suezmaxes at the beginning of the year. We're going to be adding a couple more over the next few weeks or through the middle of the summer.

    如同我們過去解釋過的,基於我們的資本結構與現金流,我們不可能維持 100% 的每股盈餘(EPS)分配。但我們希望盡可能提高分配比例。而我們一段時間以來平均大約在 9% 左右。顯然,我們在年初已經新增了 Suezmax。接下來幾週或到盛夏期間,我們還會再增加幾艘。

  • So our fleet. Has expanded a bit, and that should be reflected in how we approach our capital structure and balance sheet. But having said that, we will, of course, continue to distribute as much as possible.

    所以我們的船隊。確實擴張了一些,這也應該反映在我們如何看待資本結構與資產負債表上。但即便如此,我們當然仍會持續盡可能多地進行分配。

  • Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Yeah, and just add, I mean, as a company, we're very comfortable with our LTV. And if anything, it's probably on the lower side, but we're very comfortable with that. We prefer, given our comfort, to return our profits to shareholders directly rather than paying down debt in advance of the normal repayment scheme.

    是的,再補充一下,我是說,作為一家公司,我們對自己的 LTV(貸款價值比)非常放心。如果要說的話,它可能還偏低,但我們對此很安心。在我們有這樣的把握之下,我們更傾向把利潤直接回饋給股東,而不是在正常還款計畫之前提前償還債務。

  • Liam Burke - Analyst

    Liam Burke - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much.

    很好。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Even Kolstang, Clarksons Securities - Analyst

    (接線員指示) Even Kolstang,Clarksons Securities - 分析師

  • Even Kolstang - Analyst

    Even Kolstang - Analyst

  • Thank you. So, my first question is about your second quarter bookings. Obviously, it's super strong, but if you look at, if I look at their fee today, you could get a most of them are actually, or almost all of them, if you could give fees on a bout thing. So, could you give us some color on a number of bout days for the remaining open days, just to get a sense of how good the second quarter could become?

    謝謝。我第一個問題是關於你們第二季的訂艙(bookings)。顯然非常強勁,但如果你看——如果我看今天的數據,你大多數其實、或幾乎全部,如果你能給出費用在一個 bout thing 上。所以,你能否就剩餘尚未鎖定的天數,提供一下壓艙(ballast)天數的概況,讓我們感受一下第二季可能會有多好?

  • Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

    Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Ivan, hi, it's Iraklis. Sorry, a part of your question was a bit muffled. I think you inquired about our Q2 guidance and the impact, I guess, of how our bookings are recorded into our books and the impact of palace days. Is that right?

    好的,Ivan,你好,我是 Iraklis。抱歉,你問題的一部分有點聽不清楚。我理解你是在詢問我們第二季指引,以及我猜是我們的訂艙如何入帳、以及壓艙天數(ballast days)的影響。是這樣嗎?

  • Even Kolstang - Analyst

    Even Kolstang - Analyst

  • Yeah, that's right.

    對,沒錯。

  • Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

    Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay, perfect, sure. So yes, as we have explained in the past, given our accounting policies, revenue recognition has an impact when we look at cutoff days between quarters. Rest assured that obviously when something is not booked in the previous quarter, we obviously pass it on and recognize it in the following quarter.

    好的,完美,當然可以。所以是的,如同我們過去解釋過的,基於我們的會計政策,在觀察季度之間的截止日(cutoff days)時,收入認列會受到影響。請放心,當某些收入沒有在前一季入帳時,我們會順延並在下一季認列。

  • And we have seen in the past certain instances where this came into play. And that was also the case a little bit with our Suezmaxes in Q1 with certain fixtures that came in late in the quarter. For Q2, it's a little bit early to be able to have visibility on the ballast base of the quarter. We still have a month and a half ahead of us. So, depending on how the vessels trade, there may be some input, but obviously, if you look at it from a TCE perspective, this gets averaged out.

    而且過去我們也看過一些情況確實會出現這種影響。第一季我們的 Suezmax 也有一點類似情況,因為某些租約是在季度末才敲定。至於第二季,現在要對本季的壓艙基礎(ballast base)有清楚能見度還稍早。我們前面還有一個半月。所以,取決於船舶如何營運,可能會有一些影響,但顯然如果從 TCE(等效期租)角度來看,這些會被平均化。

  • Even Kolstang - Analyst

    Even Kolstang - Analyst

  • Yeah, that makes sense. And another one, which touched upon. Briefly so where do you want to position your fleet at the moment and if you do see a reopening of or when you see a reopening of the Trading Routes, do you then want to or do you want to take a risk and wait and see for when that opens or do you rather want to trade in the Atlantic until you are certain that the Trading Routes is open?

    是的,這很合理。另外一個問題,剛剛也稍微提到。目前你們希望把船隊部署在哪裡?如果你們看到航線重新開放——或當你們看到航線重新開放時——你們會想要承擔風險、先觀望等到真的開放再說,還是你們寧可先在大西洋區域營運,直到你們確定航線已經開放?

  • Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Sorry, again, it's a bit muffled. Your question is whether. We want to trade in the Hormuz if it reopens.

    抱歉,再說一次,聲音有點悶。你的問題是是否。如果霍爾木茲重新開放,我們想在那裡交易。

  • Even Kolstang - Analyst

    Even Kolstang - Analyst

  • As Marom, do you want to take the risk and wait outside the Hormuz at the moment, or do you prefer to just stay away until it's actually open?

    以 Marom 來說,你是想現在冒風險在霍爾木茲外面等待,還是寧可先避開,直到它真的開放?

  • Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Aristides Alafouzos - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • No, like, look, that's a good question. And if you take, I mean, one thing, just to give you some numerical examples, like if you open, if one of our VLCCs opens in Singapore today. And we ballast to the AG, and we wait a whole month, and we fix TD3 voyage, so AG to China, and where the futures are pricing, I guess those would be July dates, the vessel would earn $300,000 a day.

    不,像是,你看,這是個好問題。如果你採用——我的意思是,先給你一些數字例子:如果我們其中一艘 VLCC 今天在新加坡開放。然後我們壓載到 AG,等整整一個月,再去敲定 TD3 航次,也就是 AG 到中國;而依照期貨目前的定價,我猜會是 7 月的日期,那艘船每天可賺 30 萬美元。

  • I assume if you wait an extra 60 days, you would earn, $200,000 a day, a bit less. So clearly, at least where the futures, the FFA market is pricing the AG reopening, the market's going to be extremely firm. I mean, the way that we kind of thought about it is that if you usually fix cargoes from the AG three weeks ahead, and there's around 160 cargoes a month recently, that's.

    我假設如果你再多等 60 天,你每天會賺 20 萬美元,少一點。所以很明顯,至少就期貨、FFA 市場對 AG 重新開放的定價來看,市場會非常強勢。我的意思是,我們的思考方式大概是:你通常會在裝貨前三週敲定 AG 的貨,而最近每月大約有 160 票貨,這是。

  • About 110 cargoes in the, over three weeks. So usually, a cargo will fix three weeks ahead, like I said, but today is day zero and three weeks is day 21. You need to cover for 110 cargoes. So, I think all these ships that are sitting outside will be absorbed very quickly.

    在三週內大約 110 票貨。所以通常如我所說,一票貨會提前三週敲定,但今天是第 0 天,三週是第 21 天。你需要覆蓋 110 票貨。所以我認為,所有停在外面的這些船會很快被吸收。

  • That doesn't even include whatever production, or not production, but whatever exports can be increased. Because of crude sitting in storage. So I think with the immediate reopening, we'll see a huge sucking of whatever prompt tonnage is available in the area. So I mean, you need to be a bit careful because, okay, the future market might be wrong, it could be a little bit lower, or it could stay closed for a lot longer. But, 30 days waiting to do a TD3 and earning. 300,000, while the market today on the cargoes that we're looking at are between 120,000 and 150,000 is a big difference.

    這甚至還不包括任何產量——或不是產量,而是任何可能增加的出口。因為有原油在庫存裡。所以我認為一旦立即重新開放,我們會看到把該區域可用的即期運力大量吸走。所以我的意思是,你需要稍微小心,因為,好吧,期貨市場可能是錯的,可能會低一些,或也可能會關閉更久。但是,等 30 天去做一趟 TD3、每天賺 30 萬,而我們今天看到的貨市場是每天 12 萬到 15 萬,差距很大。

  • I think, we've seen companies like Sinokor who are willing to just take the risk and look for the maximum upside and just wait on some shifts or as a general charging strategy as a company. We've been a bit more pragmatic and looking to find the optimal cargoes that we like and not have too much waiting.

    我想,我們看到像 Sinokor 這樣的公司願意承擔風險、追求最大上行,乾脆在一些船位上等待,或把這當作公司整體的攬貨策略。我們則比較務實,會去找我們喜歡的最佳貨源,並且不要等待太久。

  • So we need to do a bit of a combination. I mean, we made a bit of a matrix internally and we want to make sure that we have ships or at least a ship every week that could be in the area to do an AG cargo. But I think it would be quite risky just to park everything outside of the AG and wait. And then he at least would start yelling at me because we wouldn't recognize any income for the rest of Q2. So, we'd have like a huge Q3, but the Q2 actuals would come off of it. Evan would be asking me questions about it, but that's okay otherwise.

    所以我們需要做一些組合。我的意思是,我們內部做了一個矩陣,想確保每週都有船——或至少有一艘船——能在該區域承接一票 AG 的貨。但我認為把所有船都停在 AG 外面等待會相當有風險。然後他至少會開始對我大吼,因為我們在 Q2 剩下的時間都不會認列任何收入。所以我們會有一個很大的 Q3,但 Q2 的實際數字會因此掉下來。Evan 會就此問我問題,但除此之外也還好。

  • So we're balanced. I mean, we're going to try to make sure we don't lose all our exposure to Reopening on any given date, but we can't just sit everything off there and be completely risk on. The other good thing is that we have a sewage max that was fixed east, so she'll be open in the east in the next month, and we also have the two new buildings which will be delivering end of May, so that's like mid, late June dates for the AG and the other one is July, so we have three sewage max in our whole VLCC fleet. That will have exposure to the reopening at some point in the next few months. So I think we're in a relatively good position on the bigger shift.

    所以我們是平衡的。我的意思是,我們會盡量確保在任何特定日期重新開放時,我們不會完全失去曝險,但我們不能把所有船都停在那裡、完全押注風險。另一個好處是,我們有一艘 Suezmax 已經敲定往東,所以她在接下來一個月會在東方開放;我們也有兩艘新造船將在 5 月底交付,所以對 AG 來說大概是 6 月中下旬的日期,另一艘是 7 月;因此在我們整個 VLCC 船隊中,我們有三艘 Suezmax。在未來幾個月的某個時間點會對重新開放有曝險。所以我認為在較大的布局上,我們處於相對不錯的位置。

  • Even Kolstang - Analyst

    Even Kolstang - Analyst

  • That's a very good color. Thank you. That's all for me.

    這些補充非常有幫助。謝謝你。我這邊就到這裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Clement Moulin, Value Investor’s Edge - Analyst

    (接線員指示) Clement Moulin,Value Investor’s Edge - 分析師

  • Clement Moulin - Analyst

    Clement Moulin - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon and thank you for taking my questions. Most has already been covered, but I wanted to ask you about the G&A for the quarter. I'm guessing there was an impact due to the offering to acquire the last two Suezmaxes as well as for bonuses. But where do you see the run rate for Q2 and thereafter on let's say normalized basis?

    嗨,午安,謝謝讓我提問。大部分都已經談到了,但我想問一下本季的 G&A。我猜可能受到收購最後兩艘 Suezmax 的發行案影響,以及獎金的影響。但以較正常化的基礎來看,你們認為 Q2 以及之後的費用水準(run rate)會在哪裡?

  • Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

    Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Clement and hi. You're right, this is more a timing issue we expect we currently expect to finish the year, maybe slightly higher than last year, 15%, 10%, 15% higher, something like that but obviously from a timing perspective, Q1 has been much more heavy than the rest of the quarters.

    是的,Clement,你好。你說得對,這比較是時間點的問題;我們目前預期全年結束時,可能會比去年略高,大概高 15%、10% 到 15% 左右,類似這樣;但很明顯從時間分布來看,Q1 比其他季度重很多。

  • The rest of the quarters I expect will go back to the usual run rates and spread relatively evenly at the moment. Just keep in mind, we also face because quite a lot of our expenses, including G&A, are endures. So, exchange rates, there's volatility and exchange rates also plays a role.

    我預期其餘季度會回到通常的費用水準,並且目前看起來會相對平均地分攤。另外請記得,我們也面臨——因為我們相當多的費用(包含 G&A)是以歐元計價。所以匯率有波動,而匯率也會扮演一定角色。

  • Clement Moulin - Analyst

    Clement Moulin - Analyst

  • Makes sense. Thanks for the color. And this one is just to confirm regarding the vessel trapped inside the AG, usual 39 days 60 in Q2, will the 74 day per day be payable until it gets out?

    了解。謝謝補充。另外這題只是確認:關於那艘被困在 AG 裡的船,原本通常是 39 天、Q2 是 60 天;那每天 7.4 萬美元會一直支付到它出來為止嗎?

  • Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

    Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, I mean, under our commercial agreements, yes, we obviously have to show the number as of the latest information. And so long as it remains in, that's the number to show for now.

    是的,我的意思是,依照我們的商業協議,是的;我們當然必須依最新資訊揭露這個數字。只要它仍然在裡面,目前就要揭露這個數字。

  • Clement Moulin - Analyst

    Clement Moulin - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. I'll turn it over. Thank you for taking my questions.

    好的,謝謝。我把時間交回去。謝謝讓我提問。

  • Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

    Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Heraklis for closing remarks.

    目前沒有進一步的問題。我現在把電話交回給 Heraklis 做結語。

  • Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

    Iraklis Sbarounis - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, everyone, for dialling in. As you probably are, we're also looking forward to our next update in early August. Thank you very much.

    好的。謝謝各位撥冗參與。如同各位可能一樣,我們也期待 8 月初的下一次更新。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。