使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Good evening, everyone, and welcome to Duolingo's third quarter 2024 earnings webcast.
大家晚上好,歡迎收看 Duolingo 2024 年第三季財報網路廣播。
Today after market close, we released this quarter's shareholder letter, a copy of which you can find on our IR website at investors.duolingo.com.
今天收盤後,我們發布了本季度的股東信函,您可以在我們的投資者關係網站 Investors.duolingo.com 上找到該信函的副本。
On today's call, we have Luis von Ahn, our Co-Founder and CEO; and Matt Skaruppa, our CFO.
出席今天的電話會議的有我們的共同創辦人兼執行長路易斯‧馮‧安 (Luis von Ahn);和我們的財務長 Matt Skaruppa。
We'll begin with some brief remarks before taking questions.
在回答問題之前,我們將先做一些簡短的評論。
Please note that this evening's event is being recorded and all attendees are on listen-only mode.
請注意,今晚的活動正在錄製中,所有與會者均處於僅聽模式。
A quick reminder that we'll make some forward-looking statements regarding future events and financial performance, which are subject to material risks and uncertainties.
快速提醒您,我們將做出一些有關未來事件和財務表現的前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響。
Some of these are outlined in the risk factors of our filings with the SEC.
我們向 SEC 提交的文件中列出了其中一些風險因素。
These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of today, and we have no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.
這些前瞻性陳述是基於我們認為截至目前合理的假設,我們沒有義務因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些陳述。
Additionally, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP measures on today's call.
此外,我們將在今天的電話會議上介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 衡量標準。
These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be considered in isolation from, a substitute for, or superior to our GAAP results, and we encourage you to consider all measures when analyzing our performance.
這些非 GAAP 衡量標準不應與我們的 GAAP 結果分開考慮、替代或優於我們的 GAAP 結果,我們鼓勵您在分析我們的業績時考慮所有衡量標準。
And now I will turn it over to
現在我將把它交給
[Lily].
[百合]。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
(video starts) Thanks, Debbie, I guess.
(影片開始)謝謝,黛比,我想。
Hi, everyone.
大家好。
So Luis asked me to cover for him.
所以路易斯要我替他掩護。
Lucky me.
幸運的是我。
Anyway, let's just get this over with.
無論如何,讓我們把這件事結束吧。
How did we do this quarter?
本季我們表現如何?
Pretty good, I'd say.
我想說,相當不錯。
We did way better than expected in all the important metrics.
我們在所有重要指標上的表現都比預期好得多。
Since we did so well and we feel good about next quarter, we're raising our full-year guidance.
由於我們做得很好並且對下個季度感覺良好,因此我們提高了全年指導。
Matt's going to get into the details in a minute.
馬特稍後會詳細介紹。
He's into that kind of thing.
他對這類事情很有興趣。
And yeah, we're hitting our goals.
是的,我們正在實現我們的目標。
Daily active users up 54% year-over-year which, okay, is pretty neat, especially since users accelerated last year.
每日活躍用戶年增 54%,這相當不錯,尤其是自去年用戶數加速成長以來。
Family plan has grown to 21% of subs compared to the 18% we had at the end of last year.
家庭計畫的訂戶比例從去年年底的 18% 成長到了 21%。
Oh, and our new Duolingo Max feature Video Call lets learners chat with me.
哦,我們新的 Duolingo Max 功能視訊通話可以讓學習者與我聊天。
Lucky them.
他們很幸運。
Don't worry.
不用擔心。
I won't judge, much.
我不會評判太多。
Maybe just an eye roll here and there.
也許只是到處翻白眼。
How did we pull this off?
我們是如何做到這一點的?
You know, the usual stuff, product improvements and social marketing, it just works.
你知道,通常的東西,產品改進和社交行銷,它都有效。
And the grand finale, generative AI and automation.
最後的結局是生成式人工智慧和自動化。
Yeah, that's the future, I guess.
是的,我想這就是未來。
I mean, look at me, an animated character running this call.
我的意思是,看看我,一個運行此通話的動畫角色。
AI is going to help us be more efficient and launch products faster.
人工智慧將幫助我們提高效率並更快地推出產品。
Pretty cool, right?
很酷,對吧?
So we're investing in that stuff.
所以我們正在投資這些東西。
Anyway, I'm done.
無論如何,我已經完成了。
Over to Matt.
交給馬特。
He'll probably try to sound more excited.
他可能會嘗試讓自己聽起來更興奮。
(video ends)
(影片結束)
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Lily.
謝謝,莉莉。
I'll do my best.
我會盡力的。
Now you may be wondering why we had Lily step in for Luis.
現在你可能想知道為什麼我們讓莉莉代替路易斯。
Well, we wanted to give an example of how generative AI is positively impacting more and more aspects of our business.
好吧,我們想舉一個例子來說明生成式人工智慧如何對我們業務的越來越多方面產生積極影響。
We are using it to make our product more fun, engaging, and effective through features like Video Call with Lily.
我們利用它透過與 Lily 進行視訊通話等功能,使我們的產品變得更有趣、更有吸引力、更有效。
And we're using it to automate internal processes like content creation.
我們使用它來自動化內部流程,例如內容創建。
By the way, that video only took about seven minutes to create because of the tools and the infrastructure that we put in place.
順便說一句,由於我們使用了工具和基礎設施,該影片只花了大約七分鐘的時間就製作完成了。
Now onto the numbers.
現在來看數字。
As Lily highlighted, Q3 was a strong quarter.
正如莉莉所強調的那樣,第三季是一個強勁的季度。
DAU grew by 54% year-over-year, which is impressive considering we're lapping last year's 60%-plus growth.
DAU 年成長 54%,考慮到我們去年的成長超過 60%,這一數字令人印象深刻。
Bookings and revenue grew 38% and 40% year-over-year, respectively, which came even as we lapped tougher comps.
儘管我們的競爭更加激烈,但預訂量和收入比去年同期分別增長了 38% 和 40%。
And we posted an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.7%.
我們公佈的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 24.7%。
This quarter's outperformance was driven, in part, by the strength we're seeing in Duolingo Max.
本季的優異表現在一定程度上是由我們在 Duolingo Max 中看到的實力所推動的。
As a reminder, Max is our highest subscription tier and it now includes our new AI-powered Video Call feature.
提醒一下,Max 是我們的最高訂閱級別,它現在包含我們新的人工智慧視訊通話功能。
We executed well and rolled out Max faster than we expected.
我們執行得很好,推出 Max 的速度比我們預期的要快。
Max is now available to roughly half of our DAU, and we expect this will increase by about 10 points or so as we scale it to more users, primarily on Android, by the end of the year.
Max 目前可供大約一半的每日活躍用戶使用,預計到年底,隨著我們將其擴展到更多用戶(主要是 Android 用戶),這一數字將增加約 10 個百分點。
We also saw early signs of strong demand for Video Call with Lily.
我們也看到了對 Lily 視訊通話強勁需求的早期跡象。
We find that when we introduce new features, we see one-time bookings gain that eventually settle down into a more predictable run rate.
我們發現,當我們推出新功能時,我們會看到一次性預訂量的增加,最終會趨於更可預測的運行率。
Some of the Max bookings increase this quarter was likely driven by this type of effect.
本季最大預訂量的部分成長可能是由此類效應推動的。
Looking ahead, we're raising full-year guidance.
展望未來,我們將上調全年指引。
We're guiding to bookings and revenue growth of about 36% and 40%, respectively, for the full year.
我們預計全年預訂量和收入將分別成長約 36% 和 40%。
And our Q4 guide takes into account Video Call's estimated impact and our experiments around our New Year's promotion.
我們的第四季度指南考慮了視訊通話的估計影響以及我們圍繞新年促銷進行的實驗。
Our Q4 guide has about 100 basis points of sequential quarter-over-quarter decline in gross margin which is due to higher gen AI and amortization costs related to scaling Max and its Video Call feature.
我們的第四季指南顯示,毛利率環比下降約 100 個基點,這是由於更高世代的人工智慧以及與擴展 Max 及其視訊通話功能相關的攤銷成本。
As a reminder, our Duolingo Max tier yields more gross profit dollars, but a lower gross margin percentage than our super tier.
提醒一下,我們的 Duolingo Max 層比我們的超級層產生更多的毛利,但毛利率較低。
We're also raising our 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 25.5% at the midpoint, which is roughly 8 points higher than 2023, as we continue to make progress towards our long-term target range of 30% to 35% adjusted EBITDA.
我們也將 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率指引上調至 25.5%,比 2023 年高出約 8 個百分點,同時我們繼續朝著 30% 至 35% 調整後 EBITDA 的長期目標範圍取得進展。
For Q4, our adjusted EBITDA guide of 24.4% at the midpoint reflects quarter-over-quarter operating leverage of about 70 basis points for R&D, 90 basis points for S&M, and that's offset by some slight deleverage in G&A.
對於第四季度,我們調整後的 EBITDA 指引中點為 24.4%,反映出研發部門環比營運槓桿約為 70 個基點,S&M 部門為 90 個基點,這被 G&A 的一些輕微去槓桿化所抵消。
We ended Q3 with approximately 49.6 million fully diluted shares outstanding using the quarter end close price.
以季末收盤價計算,第三季末,我們已發行約 4,960 萬股完全稀釋的流通股。
And we expect net dilution of a little more than 1%, similar to last year.
我們預計淨稀釋度將略高於 1%,與去年類似。
Ah, and good timing.
啊,時機很好。
It looks like Luis is back.
看來路易斯回來了。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Thanks, Matt.
謝謝,馬特。
I'm glad Lily was able to cover for me.
我很高興莉莉能夠替我掩護。
Now let's take some questions and Debbie will manage the queue.
現在讓我們回答一些問題,黛比將管理隊列。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
(Event Instructions) Justin Patterson, KeyBanc.
(活動說明)Justin Patterson,KeyBanc。
Justin Patterson - Analyst
Justin Patterson - Analyst
All right.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
And Luis, since you subbed in with Lily, I will sub it in with baby Luca here, who's just out for his walk, and nap right now.
路易斯,既然你和莉莉一起替補,我就和小盧卡一起替補,他剛剛出去散步,現在正在小睡。
Nothing puts him to sleep faster than earnings calls.
沒有什麼比財報電話會議更能讓他睡著了。
But if I project from your current trends and think about how next year or even 2026 goes, you're probably crossing 10 million subs within about an 8- to 9-year period since you started monetizing.
但如果我根據你們當前的趨勢進行預測,並考慮明年甚至 2026 年的情況,那麼自從你們開始盈利以來,你們可能會在大約 8 到 9 年內突破 1000 萬訂閱者。
So as you think ahead, what does it really take for you to add the next 10 million, reach 20 million subs?
那麼,當您展望未來時,您真正需要什麼才能增加下一個 1000 萬訂閱者,達到 2000 萬訂閱者?
Is that just expanding price tiers?
這只是擴大價格等級嗎?
Is that more marketing?
這是更多的行銷嗎?
New apps monetizing?
新應用獲利?
Would love to hear about how you're thinking about that philosophically.
我很想聽聽您是如何從哲學角度思考這個問題的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah, it's a great question.
是的,這是一個很好的問題。
I mean, generally, we're going to continue doing what we've been doing because it's working really well.
我的意思是,總的來說,我們將繼續做我們一直在做的事情,因為它運作得很好。
And in terms of monetization, there's a few things that we're doing.
在貨幣化方面,我們正在做一些事情。
First, we're growing the number of users.
首先,我們正在增加用戶數量。
Just this is paying and non-paying users.
這只是付費用戶和非付費用戶。
As we grow that, we grow number of subs because a certain fraction of them subscribe.
隨著我們的成長,我們的訂閱者數量也會增加,因為其中有一定比例的訂閱者。
We're going to be doing everything that we do for that that is making the product more engaging, also doing our social marketing.
我們將盡一切努力讓產品更具吸引力,同時進行社交行銷。
So that should increase number of users.
所以這應該會增加用戶數量。
And as you saw, our DAUs are growing -- been growing between 50% and 60%, really, for the last two years.
正如您所看到的,我們的 DAU 正在增長——過去兩年確實增長了 50% 到 60%。
So there's that.
所以就是這樣。
And then we're just going to get better at converting these users and there's a number of things that we can do.
然後我們將更好地轉換這些用戶,我們可以做很多事情。
For one, we're going to have our bread-and-butter stuff that just basically makes improvements to our purchase page or when we give the offer to the users, offer to subscribe.
其一,我們將擁有基本的產品,這些產品基本上可以改進我們的購買頁面,或者當我們向用戶提供優惠時,提供訂閱。
But also the new plan, Max.
還有新計劃,麥克斯。
We think that there's a lot of geographies where Max is going to be more interesting than Super.
我們認為,在許多地區,Max 都會比 Super 更有趣。
And in particular, for English learners, they're very interested in practicing conversation, which is what we offer with Max, the Video Call feature with Lily.
特別是,對於英語學習者來說,他們對練習對話非常感興趣,這就是我們透過 Max 提供的、與 Lily 的視訊通話功能。
So we think there's going to be a lot of subscribers coming from that.
所以我們認為將會有很多訂閱者。
But generally, that's kind of the philosophy for it.
但總的來說,這就是它的哲學。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
All right.
好的。
Justin, thank you.
賈斯汀,謝謝你。
And we're going to go to the next question, which is Ryan from Needham & Co.
我們將討論下一個問題,是來自 Needham & Co. 的 Ryan。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Hi.
你好。
Congrats on a great quarter.
恭喜您度過了一個出色的季度。
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
Maybe just on the -- in the shareholder letter, Luis, you talked about sort of 2 million DAUs now that are learning using the platform for intermediate English learning or higher.
也許只是在股東信中,Luis,您談到現在有 200 萬 DAU 正在使用該平台進行中級或更高級別的英語學習。
Obviously, you talked about sort of this initiative of driving more English learners to the platform, I think it was about six months ago now.
顯然,您談到了推動更多英語學習者使用該平台的舉措,我想那是大約六個月前的事了。
Can you just give us a sense on that 2 million, sort of what sort of progress has been made within that last six months since you've been focused on it?
您能否為我們介紹一下這 200 萬個項目,自從您專注於此以來,在過去六個月內取得了哪些進展?
And maybe what regions you're seeing sort of or languages you're seeing sort of the most attractive pickup or most near-term pickup on usage?
也許您看到哪些地區或語言是最有吸引力的使用率上升或近期使用率上升?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah.
是的。
Thank you for that question, Ryan.
謝謝你提出這個問題,瑞安。
So as we have been saying, English learners are a pretty major opportunity for us.
正如我們一直所說的,英語學習者對我們來說是一個非常重要的機會。
The reason for that is because if you look at the broader language-learning market outside of Duolingo, the majority of the spend, about 80% of it, is from people who are learning English.
原因是,如果你看看 Duolingo 以外更廣泛的語言學習市場,你會發現大部分支出(約 80%)來自學習英語的人。
But if you look at Duolingo, the amount of revenue that we make from people who are learning English is significantly less than 50%.
但如果你看看 Duolingo,我們從學習英語的人那裡獲得的收入遠低於 50%。
So there's a major opportunity there.
所以那裡有一個重大機會。
And the reason that we are under-represented within the English learners is because we haven't historically had intermediate or advanced content in English.
我們在英語學習者中代表性不足的原因是因為我們歷史上沒有中級或高級英語內容。
We started working on that a few years ago.
幾年前我們就開始研究這個問題。
And by now, all of that content is there.
到目前為止,所有內容都已存在。
So we're very happy with the content.
所以我們對內容非常滿意。
We're obviously going to continue improving it because we're always improving everything, but the content is at least there.
顯然我們將繼續改進它,因為我們總是在改進一切,但至少內容是存在的。
The other thing that we've done is we've worked a lot on placing users.
我們所做的另一件事是我們在放置用戶方面做了很多工作。
English is a unique language in that because it's the lingua franca for the whole world and because in most countries, people learn some amount of English in schools, mostly when they come to the app, they have some previous knowledge unlike most other languages where usually when they come to the app, they're beginners.
英語是一種獨特的語言,因為它是全世界的通用語言,而且因為在大多數國家,人們在學校學習了一定量的英語,主要是當他們使用應用程式時,他們有一些先前的知識,這與大多數其他語言通常不同當他們使用該應用程式時,他們還是初學者。
So we have to really do a good job of placing users in the right place.
所以我們要真正做好把用戶放在正確的位置。
And we've been working on that quite a bit.
我們已經在這方面做了很多工作。
At this point, we feel pretty good on the product in terms of the content and then also the placing.
在這一點上,我們對產品的內容和排名都感覺很好。
So that feels pretty good.
所以感覺還不錯。
And we're going to continue seeing growth.
我們將繼續看到成長。
Like we said in the letter, we have over 2 million daily active users in English in advanced or intermediate content.
正如我們在信中所說,我們每天有超過 200 萬英語高級或中級內容活躍用戶。
We think that's growing pretty fast.
我們認為這一成長速度相當快。
Now, one thing to call out here is that most of our growth comes from word of mouth.
現在,需要指出的一件事是,我們的大部分成長來自口碑。
I mean, we're going to be doing some marketing to get the word out, et cetera.
我的意思是,我們將進行一些行銷來宣傳等等。
But most of our growth comes from word of mouth.
但我們的成長大部分來自口碑。
Now word of mouth growth is excellent in that it's very cheap.
現在口碑成長非常好,因為它非常便宜。
We don't have to pay for it, people just tell their friends.
我們不需要付錢,人們只需告訴他們的朋友。
But it's also not super fast.
但它也不是超快。
So we expect that because historically, there just hasn't -- people haven't really thought that Duolingo has intermediate or advanced English, we expect that it's going to take a couple of years for really the word to get around that our English courses are good for intermediate and advanced speakers.
所以我們預計,因為從歷史上看,人們並沒有真正認為 Duolingo 具有中級或高級英語,我們預計需要幾年時間才能真正繞過我們的英語課程適合中級和高級演講者。
So that's kind of what's going to happen, but we're very excited and that's a pretty major opportunity.
這就是即將發生的事情,但我們非常興奮,這是一個非常重要的機會。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Maybe as a follow-up, it seems like as you continue to roll out new functionality that you maybe starting or expanding to the Android user base maybe a little bit more quickly than you have in the past.
也許作為後續行動,隨著您繼續推出新功能,您可能會比過去更快開始或擴展到 Android 用戶群。
Just curious how the uptake on Android users has been for the new functionality and if you're seeing any differences in terms of how those users are converting relative to maybe in the past couple of years?
只是好奇 Android 用戶對新功能的接受程度如何,以及您是否發現這些用戶的轉換方式與過去幾年相比有任何差異?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah.
是的。
I mean, we do -- the way we develop, usually, we put features first on iPhones and then on Android phones where we're usually, call it, three to six months behind on Android.
我的意思是,我們確實這樣做——我們的開發方式通常是,我們首先將功能放在iPhone 上,然後放在Android 手機上,而我們通常稱之為Android 手機,比Android 落後三到六個月。
And we're getting better at that.
我們在這方面做得越來越好。
It's getting faster and faster.
它變得越來越快。
Right now, we are working on, for example, adding all the Max features to Android.
例如,目前我們正在努力將所有 Max 功能新增到 Android 中。
That's something that we're adding.
這是我們要添加的內容。
One of the things to mention is that we expect -- usually, by the way, Android users just don't monetize as well as iPhone users.
值得一提的是,我們預計,通常情況下,Android 用戶的獲利能力不如 iPhone 用戶。
That's industry-wide.
這是全行業的。
This is not just Duolingo.
這不僅僅是多鄰國。
It usually is the case that they probably have lower purchasing power.
通常情況下,他們的購買力可能較低。
But one thing that is interesting is we are seeing in our Max features and in particular, the key Max feature of Video Call, we're seeing that English learners are using it about twice as much as people who are learning other languages.
但有趣的一件事是,我們在 Max 功能中看到,特別是視訊通話的關鍵 Max 功能,我們發現英語學習者使用它的次數大約是學習其他語言的人的兩倍。
So we expect, because Android, in particular, has more English learners than iPhone, we expect that there's going to be a really good uptake there.
因此,我們預計,由於 Android 系統的英語學習者數量尤其多於 iPhone,因此我們預計 Android 系統的英語學習者數量將會非常高。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Thanks, Luis.
謝謝,路易斯。
Thanks for taking my questions.
感謝您回答我的問題。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Thank you.
謝謝。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Aaron Kessler, Seaport Research.
亞倫‧凱斯勒,海港研究中心。
Aaron Kessler - Analyst
Aaron Kessler - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks, guys.
謝謝,夥計們。
A couple of questions.
有幾個問題。
Maybe just as a follow-up on the intermediate English learning.
也許只是作為中級英語學習的後續。
Can you just go through kind of maybe the marketing strategy to engage the users or make them aware of that?
您能否透過某種行銷策略來吸引用戶或讓他們意識到這一點?
And then second, I think last quarter, you mentioned pretty strong international growth, including Japan's benefiting from kind of more country managers.
其次,我認為上個季度,您提到了相當強勁的國際成長,包括日本受益於更多的國家經理。
Just any updates on some of that international growth this quarter as well?
本季國際成長的一些最新情況嗎?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah, thank you.
是的,謝謝。
So we do a very specific type of marketing.
所以我們做了一個非常具體的行銷類型。
You've seen our social media.
您已經看過我們的社群媒體。
It's pretty unhinged.
這是相當精神錯亂的。
That type of marketing, our bread-and-butter marketing, is not particularly applicable to convincing people that we have intermediate English content, right?
這種類型的行銷,我們的麵包和黃油行銷,並不特別適用於讓人們相信我們有中級英語內容,對吧?
I mean, the owl breaking things and doing dances is not really applicable.
我的意思是,貓頭鷹打破東西和跳舞並不真正適用。
What we do think is applicable is having influencers.
我們認為適用的是擁有影響力。
We use influencers in a lot of countries, and so we're going to be doing that.
我們在很多國家都使用有影響力的人,所以我們會這樣做。
It actually works pretty well.
它實際上效果很好。
And not just us doing the marketing.
不只是我們在做行銷。
For example, there's videos that people do, without us even paying, that do this very well.
例如,人們製作的影片甚至不需要我們付費,就可以很好地做到這一點。
For example, there was a video recently that got a lot of views, like many, many millions of views of a guy who just used Duolingo to learn for a few months and then just went to Russia and he just recorded himself trying to do stuff.
例如,最近有一個視頻獲得了很多觀看次數,就像一個人剛剛使用Duolingo 學習了幾個月,然後剛剛去了俄羅斯,他只是記錄了自己嘗試做某事的視頻,有很多、數百萬的觀看次數。
And it turned out that he was able to do it.
事實證明他能夠做到。
That type of stuff is really good for efficacy because it's like, oh, wow, you can go to Russia and actually get around.
這類東西確實對功效很有好處,因為它就像,哦,哇,你可以去俄羅斯並真正四處走動。
So that's the type of stuff we're going to be leaning in on our marketing.
這就是我們在行銷中要依靠的東西。
And in terms of -- okay, so one last thing I'll say about the marketing, which is I'll reiterate what I said in the previous answer.
就行銷而言,好吧,我要說的最後一件事是,我將重申我在先前的答案中所說的話。
That's what we're going to do for the marketing.
這就是我們要做的行銷工作。
But once again, the main way in which we expect that the word to get around that we have intermediate and advanced content is through word of mouth because that has worked so well for us.
但我們再次強調,我們希望傳播我們擁有中級和高級內容的主要方式是透過口碑傳播,因為這對我們來說非常有效。
So that's probably going to be the main way.
所以這可能是主要方式。
So there's that.
所以就是這樣。
Then for your second question in terms of international growth, we're very happy with the results so far for international growth.
那麼,關於國際成長的第二個問題,我們對迄今為止國際成長的結果感到非常滿意。
If you ask about our DAU growth right now, this quarter, we reported 54%.
如果你現在詢問我們的 DAU 成長情況,本季我們報告為 54%。
It's broad range.
範圍很廣。
So every single country is growing well.
所以每個國家都發展得很好。
Of course, some countries are growing a little more than others.
當然,有些國家的成長速度略高於其他國家。
But basically every region is growing.
但基本上每個地區都在成長。
We have country marketing managers on a number of countries.
我們在許多國家都有國家行銷經理。
We're about to add new ones.
我們即將添加新的。
We're about to add Italy and Turkey.
我們即將添加義大利和土耳其。
And we have ones in Korea, in Japan, in China, in Brazil, et cetera.
我們在韓國、日本、中國、巴西等地都有。
We have a lot of them.
我們有很多這樣的人。
And that works really well.
這確實很有效。
Typically what it is, is we hire one or two individuals there in the country and then they help with our basically localizing our humor and our kind of TikTok and YouTube accounts.
通常情況下,我們在國內僱用一兩個人,然後他們幫助我們基本上本地化我們的幽默以及我們的 TikTok 和 YouTube 帳戶。
And so far, every single country where we've applied this, it has worked.
到目前為止,我們應用此方法的每個國家都發揮了作用。
Aaron Kessler - Analyst
Aaron Kessler - Analyst
All right.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Ralph Schackart, William Blair.
拉爾夫·沙卡特,威廉·布萊爾。
Ralph Schackart - Analyst
Ralph Schackart - Analyst
Good afternoon.
午安.
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
Luis, maybe just give an update on the macro.
路易斯,也許只是提供宏觀的最新情況。
Some investors might see this business model sort of fairly discretionary, and you're growing 50-plus percent in DAU.
一些投資者可能會認為這種商業模式相當隨意,而且您的 DAU 增長了 50% 以上。
So maybe just sort of riff a little bit, if you can, on why you think the model has held up so well and why you think you can continue to grow at these growth rates.
因此,如果可以的話,也許只是簡單地闡述為什麼您認為該模型表現得如此良好,以及為什麼您認為您可以繼續以這樣的成長率成長。
And I'll ask Matt a question, since he's kind of quiet over there, next.
接下來我會問馬特一個問題,因為他在那邊有點安靜。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
I mean, in general, we see a lot of opportunities still to grow in most -- where the number of people who are learning a language in the world is about 2 billion.
我的意思是,總的來說,我們在大多數國家都看到了仍有成長的機會——世界上學習語言的人數約為 20 億。
We have about 100 million monthly active users, so there's a lot of runway in there.
我們每月約有 1 億活躍用戶,因此還有很大的發展空間。
And so we're just going to continue growing.
所以我們將繼續成長。
I mean, by the way, like we've said last time, we expect our DAU growth for the rest of the year, certainly, to be around 50%.
我的意思是,順便說一句,就像我們上次所說的那樣,我們預計今年剩餘時間的 DAU 增長肯定會在 50% 左右。
So we're going to continue strong growth.
因此,我們將持續強勁成長。
And like I said, for the last two years, it's been 50% to 60% year-on-year.
就像我說的,過去兩年,年增了 50% 到 60%。
So we just expect that to continue happening.
所以我們只是希望這種情況繼續發生。
In over the longer term, we expect other subjects to start helping, too.
從長遠來看,我們預計其他學科也將開始提供幫助。
So this is language learning, but we expect that math and music are going to start contributing more and more over the next few years.
這就是語言學習,但我們預計數學和音樂將在未來幾年中開始做出越來越多的貢獻。
So we feel pretty good about macro in that respect.
因此,在這方面我們對宏觀感覺非常好。
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
And Ralph, before you ask me a question, the addition I'd add to Luis' is just that our entry-level price for Duolingo is free.
拉爾夫,在你問我問題之前,我要向路易斯補充的一點是,我們的 Duolingo 入門價格是免費的。
So that helps.
所以這有幫助。
And then the actual subscription is just not very expensive on a monthly basis, even Super or Max.
然後,實際的每月訂閱費用並不是很昂貴,即使是 Super 或 Max。
Ralph Schackart - Analyst
Ralph Schackart - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
And then just maybe, Matt, on margins.
然後也許,馬特,在邊緣。
Just kind of remind us of your framework for letting the business scale versus reinvestment opportunities.
只是提醒我們您讓業務規模擴大與再投資機會的框架。
Obviously, the model's scaling pretty significantly.
顯然,模型的擴展相當顯著。
You've thrown off a lot of cash and margin.
你已經浪費了大量現金和保證金。
But how do you think about incremental margins going forward?
但您如何看待未來的增量利潤?
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
No, it's a great question and it gives me a chance just to kind of highlight the fact that we have scaled incredibly well.
不,這是一個很好的問題,它讓我有機會強調我們已經取得了令人難以置信的良好規模。
I mean, the top line bookings CAGR over the last 3 years is 42%, including our most recent guide.
我的意思是,過去 3 年的頂線預訂複合年增長率為 42%,包括我們最新的指南。
While we've done that eight quarters ago, we had $2 million in Q4 of adjusted EBITDA, and we just guided to $49.7 million at the midpoint.
雖然我們在八個季度前就做到了這一點,但第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 200 萬美元,而我們的中點指引值為 4970 萬美元。
So 25x on adjusted EBITDA.
調整後 EBITDA 為 25 倍。
So it feels like we're scaling both growth and profitability really nicely.
所以感覺我們正在很好地擴大成長和獲利能力。
And we're doing that with your point around incremental margins above our long-term target of 30% to 35%, and we think that, that's reasonable.
我們正在根據您關於增量利潤率高於我們 30% 至 35% 的長期目標的觀點來做到這一點,我們認為這是合理的。
But first and foremost, we feel like there's a ton of opportunity.
但首先也是最重要的是,我們覺得有很多機會。
The first question was, how do you get to 20 million subscribers?
第一個問題是,如何獲得 2,000 萬訂閱者?
You had a question about macro, you got questions about DAU growth.
你有關於宏觀的問題,你有關於 DAU 成長的問題。
There's lots of opportunities and lots of ways to win.
有很多機會,也有很多獲勝的方法。
So we're going to continue to invest, first, back into R&D because that is our primary way to grow, through word of mouth.
因此,我們將首先繼續投資於研發,因為這是我們透過口碑實現成長的主要方式。
So I think it's a yes and Ralph, we're going to continue to try to invest for growth, but we're going to continue to scale profitably as well.
所以我認為這是肯定的,拉爾夫,我們將繼續嘗試投資以促進成長,但我們也將繼續擴大獲利規模。
Ralph Schackart - Analyst
Ralph Schackart - Analyst
Awesome.
驚人的。
Thanks, Luis and best of luck.
謝謝,路易斯,祝你好運。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Bryan Smilek, JPMorgan.
布萊恩‧史邁萊克,摩根大通。
Bryan Smilek - Analyst
Bryan Smilek - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
I guess just to start on Max available to 50% of DAUs, up from 15% last quarter, can you just help us understand the conversion cycle of a Max subscriber from when it becomes available to -- when they go down the funnel?
我想,剛開始 Max 可供 50% 的 DAU 使用,高於上季度的 15%,您能否幫助我們了解 Max 訂閱者的轉換週期,從它可用到——當他們進入漏斗時?
And I guess like how does that differ versus Super?
我想這跟超級有什麼不同?
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
So there's a couple of things to say.
所以有幾件事要說。
Yes, we've been increasing Max.
是的,我們一直在增加 Max。
The way we've been increasing Max, by the way, is by adding it to more countries and in more courses.
順便說一句,我們增加 Max 的方法是將其添加到更多國家和更多課程中。
At this point, where around 50% of our daily active users have access to it.
目前,大約 50% 的日常活躍用戶可以存取它。
Now that doesn't mean they bought it, but they have access to buy it.
現在,這並不意味著他們購買了它,但他們有機會購買它。
By the end of the year, it will be somewhere between 60% and 70%.
到今年年底,這一比例將達到 60% 至 70% 之間。
One important thing to say about that, by the way, is that we're adding countries, but the countries at this point is mainly long tail that's left -- all the kind of wealthy countries, we've added.
順便說一句,對此要說的一件重要的事情是,我們正在添加國家,但目前的國家主要是剩下的長尾國家——我們添加了所有類型的富裕國家。
Now in terms of how the funnel is, we're seeing a lot of people who are buying Max the first time they subscribe to anything.
現在就頻道而言,我們看到很多人在第一次訂閱任何內容時都會購買 Max。
So they're a free user and just they go directly to Max.
所以他們是免費用戶,只是直接訪問 Max。
And we're also seeing a bunch of people who were Super subscribers who were able to upgrade to Max.
我們也看到很多超級訂閱者能夠升級到 Max。
So we're seeing both of these.
所以我們看到了這兩點。
And it's a bit early to know exactly where this is going to settle because some of the features in Max are very new, particularly the feature of late that has really unlocked a lot of purchases in Max, kind of the key features, Video Call with Lily.
現在確切地知道這將在哪裡解決還為時過早,因為 Max 中的一些功能非常新,特別是最近的功能確實解鎖了 Max 中的大量購買,其中一些關鍵功能是視訊通話百合。
And that feature has only been around for two months.
而這個功能才推出兩個月。
So I don't really know exactly what's going to happen.
所以我真的不知道會發生什麼事。
But I get a sense that this is going to vary geographically.
但我有一種感覺,這會因地理位置而異。
So there will be some countries like the US, I'm guessing, that where Super is going to be the main package because it's a package for convenience.
因此,我猜測,在美國等一些國家/地區,Super 將成為主要套餐,因為它是一個為了方便起見的套餐。
Whereas there will be some countries, particularly the English-learning ones, that where it could be that Max is the main package because this is not -- usually in the poor countries, people don't pay for convenience but they do pay for things like learning how to converse better.
然而在某些國家,特別是那些學習英語的國家,Max 可能是主要的軟體包,因為這不是——通常在貧窮國家,人們不會為便利付費,但他們會為東西付費例如學習如何更好地交談。
And so there may be some cases, some countries where actually we'll have more Max packages than Super packages.
因此,在某些情況下,在某些國家/地區,我們實際上會提供比超級套餐更多的最大套餐。
We just don't know exactly how it's going to be yet, but that's kind of what I think will happen.
我們只是還不知道具體會怎樣,但我認為這就是會發生的事情。
Bryan Smilek - Analyst
Bryan Smilek - Analyst
Awesome.
驚人的。
And I guess one more, if I could, just on DAU growth.
如果可以的話,我猜想還有一個關於 DAU 成長的問題。
As we go into 2025, can you just walk us through the building blocks of DAU growth?
當我們進入 2025 年時,您能否向我們介紹 DAU 成長的組成部分?
I mean, coming off strong growth in the 50%, I mean, where do you think realistically the TAM expansion is going to come from?
我的意思是,在 50% 的強勁增長之後,您認為 TAM 的擴張實際上會來自哪裡?
Will it be more English in '25 or are we still talking more non-English learning?
25 年會更多地使用英語還是我們仍在談論更多的非英語學習?
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
I think we're going to see growth from all regions.
我認為我們將看到所有地區的成長。
I mean, the nice thing about our growth so far is that, really, there is no country where we are growing very slowly.
我的意思是,到目前為止,我們的成長的好處是,實際上,沒有一個國家的成長非常緩慢。
It's just they're all kind of growing pretty fast.
只是它們都成長得相當快。
Where we're going to see next year, I think we're going to continue seeing growth in our more penetrated markets like the US.
明年我們將看到,我認為我們將繼續看到美國等滲透率更高的市場的成長。
And I think we're going to be layering a lot more English growth.
我認為我們將推動更多的英語成長。
So it's going to be both.
所以兩者都會。
And again, the reason that we believe that we can continue growing fast is that we really are just scratching the market for language learning.
再說一次,我們相信我們能夠繼續快速成長的原因是我們確實剛剛涉足語言學習市場。
I mean, there's 2 billion people learning.
我的意思是,有 20 億人在學習。
And in addition to that, not only is the 2 billion people learning, in some countries, we are completely growing the market.
除此之外,不僅有 20 億人在學習,在某些國家,我們正在完全擴大市場。
I mean, for example, in the United States, about 80% of our users are people who were not in the market before, they weren't learning a language.
我的意思是,例如在美國,我們大約 80% 的用戶是以前沒有進入市場的人,他們沒有學習語言。
So we just don't see that anything is -- there's nothing that we see that is pointing us to some like cap or anything like that.
所以我們只是看不到任何東西——我們看到的任何東西都沒有向我們指出諸如帽子之類的東西。
Bryan Smilek - Analyst
Bryan Smilek - Analyst
Thank you, both.
謝謝你們,兩位。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Thank you, Bryan.
謝謝你,布萊恩。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Ross Sandler, Barclays.
羅斯·桑德勒,巴克萊銀行。
Ross Sandler - Analyst
Ross Sandler - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
So I guess it's kind of a question for both of you guys.
所以我想這對你們兩個來說都是一個問題。
But Luis, you were on the Decoder podcast recently.
但是路易斯,你最近參加了解碼器播客。
Nice job, by the way.
順便說一句,幹得好。
And I think you had said that at the subscriber level, that Max is accretive to margin, and Matt, you just mentioned that COGS is going to go up because of the Video Call feature, which makes sense.
我認為您曾說過,在訂戶層面,Max 會增加利潤,而 Matt,您剛剛提到由於視訊通話功能,COGS 將會上升,這是有道理的。
But could you guys just make sure we got those right, just unit economics versus overall cost?
但你們能否確保我們得到了正確的結果,即單位經濟效益與整體成本的比較?
And then I guess, more importantly, Luis, inference costs are down like 90% in AI right now.
然後我想,更重要的是,Luis,目前人工智慧的推理成本下降了 90%。
And so as that gets cheaper and cheaper in subsequent years, how does that potentially change either the Max rollout or future rollout, more things like the Video Call with Lily, et cetera?
因此,隨著接下來的幾年變得越來越便宜,這可能會如何改變 Max 的推出或未來的推出,更多的東西,例如與 Lily 的視訊通話等等?
How are you thinking about that broadly?
您如何看待這個廣泛的問題?
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah, let me answer your second question first, and then I'll let Matt answer the first question.
是的,讓我先回答你的第二個問題,然後我會讓馬特回答第一個問題。
So yes, costs will continue to be going down.
所以是的,成本將繼續下降。
That's our expectation.
這是我們的期望。
And not only is cost going to continue going down because large language models are going to be cheaper to query.
成本不僅會繼續下降,因為大型語言模型的查詢成本將會降低。
It's also the case that we ourselves have not spent a lot of time optimizing costs.
還有就是我們自己並沒有花很多時間去優化成本。
I mean, the directive that all our teams have is don't worry too much about cost at the moment for large language models because that's going to naturally go down.
我的意思是,我們所有團隊的指示是,目前不要太擔心大型語言模型的成本,因為成本會自然下降。
So just develop the best features you can.
因此,只要開發出最好的功能即可。
And over time, we're going to -- if we see that maybe the LLMs are not going down in cost all that much or something, we're going to start optimizing ourselves.
隨著時間的推移,如果我們發現法學碩士的成本可能不會下降那麼多,我們就會開始優化自己。
So we really do believe that cost will go down.
所以我們確實相信成本會下降。
What that will do is it will allow us to offer things like Video Call with Lily at more reasonable prices for certain countries.
這將使我們能夠以更合理的價格為某些國家/地區提供諸如與 Lily 進行視訊通話之類的服務。
We think that the price is good for a country like the United States.
我們認為這個價格對於像美國這樣的國家來說是好的。
We don't think that the price at the moment -- I mean, we don't even have it in India, but at some point, we're going to have it in India.
我們不認為目前的價格 - 我的意思是,我們甚至在印度都沒有它,但在某個時候,我們將在印度擁有它。
But we probably, at the moment, cannot offer it for that attractive of a price.
但目前我們可能無法以如此有吸引力的價格提供它。
But I think sometime next year, the price will be pretty attractive.
但我認為明年某個時候,價格會相當有吸引力。
So it will just allow us to offer it to people in poor countries.
因此,它只會讓我們能夠向貧窮國家的人們提供它。
Now the thing about people in poor countries, those are exactly the ones that want to learn English.
現在貧窮國家的人們正是那些想要學習英語的人。
And the people who want to learn English are exactly the ones who want to more so practice their conversation.
那些想要學習英語的人正是那些想要更多練習對話的人。
So we think this is going to be a pretty major unlock, the decrease in price.
所以我們認為這將是一個相當重大的解鎖,即價格的下降。
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
And just to follow up on the first part, Ross.
只是為了跟進第一部分,羅斯。
We launched Max because we had a belief that there was demand for Duolingo at a higher price.
我們推出 Max 是因為我們相信 Duolingo 的需求會更高。
And Gen AI enabled us to add features to that tier that allowed us to charge that price.
Gen AI 使我們能夠為該層添加功能,從而使我們能夠收取該價格。
And for example, like Luis said, in the US, it's roughly 2x the price of Super.
例如,正如路易斯所說,在美國,它的價格大約是 Super 的兩倍。
So when you have that 2x of price, you have plenty of gross profit dollars to play with.
因此,當你的價格是原來的兩倍時,你就有足夠的毛利可以利用。
And so that's -- when Luis was on the podcast, we definitely make more gross profit dollars per subscriber for Max than Super.
所以,當 Luis 做播客時,我們為 Max 的每位訂戶賺取的毛利肯定比 Super 多。
The gross margin percentage is lower because in addition to the app store fees, there's a set of LLM calls.
毛利率較低是因為除了應用程式商店費用外,還有一系列 LLM 費用。
But for free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA dollars, we're making more.
但對於自由現金流和調整後的 EBITDA 美元來說,我們賺得更多。
And so we still feel good about it.
所以我們仍然對此感覺良好。
The point that Luis was making on cost also applies to price.
路易斯關於成本的觀點也適用於價格。
We have charged the team with just making a wonderful product.
我們責成團隊只做一個精彩的產品。
And you saw an example of that on the -- or something like that on the beginning of this call.
你在電話會議開始時看到了一個這樣的例子,或類似的例子。
We still haven't optimized all the way pricing and costs.
我們還沒有完全優化定價和成本。
And so we'll do that over time and that will help margins as well.
因此,隨著時間的推移,我們將這樣做,這也將有助於提高利潤。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Andrew Boone, JMP.
安德魯·布恩,JMP。
Andrew Boone - Analyst
Andrew Boone - Analyst
Thanks so much guys for taking my question.
非常感謝大家提出我的問題。
I wanted to go back to kind of product testing and curve, right?
我想回到某種產品測試和曲線,對吧?
And so if I think about tests as a main driver of what is retention on the platform, you guys have basically doubled the user base for the last two years, but that's also with two years more product testing that's now behind you.
因此,如果我將測試視為平台保留的主要驅動力,那麼在過去兩年中,你們的用戶基數基本上翻了一番,但這還包括現在已經過去的兩年的產品測試。
Can you talk about what is the pace of testing and whether that's faster today, and whether you guys are seeing more gains, given that larger base of users and faster testing?
您能否談談測試的速度是多少?
Or how do I think about those offsetting features?
或者我如何看待這些抵消功能?
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah.
是的。
The good news is we're running -- the number of tests that we're running per quarter is increasing.
好消息是我們正在運行——我們每季運行的測試數量正在增加。
So we are running more tests per quarter.
因此,我們每季都會進行更多測試。
The success rate for the test is about the same.
測試的成功率大致相同。
And it's actually a funny thing, it's about almost exactly 50%.
這其實是一件有趣的事情,幾乎剛好是 50%。
So every test that we run has about a 50% chance of succeeding.
因此,我們執行的每個測試都有大約 50% 的成功機會。
And by succeeding, I mean that it did what we wanted it to do, like it increased whatever metric we wanted it to do to increase.
我所說的成功,是指它做了我們希望它做的事情,就像它增加了我們希望它增加的任何指標。
So the pace of test is increasing, and we feel pretty good about the number of things that we have coming up over the next -- we have visibility, I have visibility for about six months.
因此,測試的步伐正在加快,我們對接下來要做的事情的數量感到非常滿意——我們有可見性,我有大約六個月的可見性。
We feel pretty good about the things that we have for the next six months in terms of number of tests.
就測試數量而言,我們對未來六個月的情況感到非常滿意。
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
And Andrew, the other thing I would add is just that the teams do run experiments, like from time to time, to try to enable it themselves, to speed up their own experimental frequency, to get data faster, to analyze the experiments more rapidly.
安德魯,我要補充的另一件事是,團隊確實會不時地進行實驗,嘗試自己啟用它,加快自己的實驗頻率,更快地獲取數據,更快地分析實驗。
And so we're always running -- sort of trying to run those and we're going to run some this quarter, for example.
因此,我們一直在運行——有點嘗試運行這些,例如,我們將在本季度運行一些。
So we think things can speed up.
所以我們認為事情可以加快。
Andrew Boone - Analyst
Andrew Boone - Analyst
That's helpful.
這很有幫助。
And then if I think about a similar question within the framework of what is recently launched products, so if I think about Adventures and Video Calls, can you guys maybe benchmark that as a surface area for testing versus what is Streaks or maybe the Leaderboard in terms of past products that have been successful in terms of driving, again, curve?
然後,如果我在最近推出的產品框架內考慮類似的問題,那麼如果我考慮冒險和視訊通話,你們能否將其作為測試的表面區域,與 Streaks 或排行榜進行比較?成功的產品而言,再次,曲線?
Thanks so much, guys.
非常感謝,夥計們。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
I guess maybe it's taking a step back a little bit.
我想也許是稍微後退了一步。
The way we operate for the Duolingo app is we have a number of different areas that cover basically the main things we want to improve.
我們對 Duolingo 應用程式的運作方式是,我們有許多不同的領域,基本上涵蓋了我們想要改進的主要內容。
And there's three main things we want to improve: We want to monetize better, we want to make it more engaging, and we want to teach better.
我們想要改進三個主要面向:我們想要更好地獲利,我們想要讓它更具吸引力,我們想要更好地教學。
And depending on what the feature is related to that area is going to be working on, so for example, the Streak is something that makes the app more engaging.
取決於該功能與該區域相關的功能,例如,Streak 可以使應用程式更具吸引力。
And we are running, I don't know how many experiments on the Streak, hundreds, possibly thousands.
我不知道我們正在 Streak 上進行多少次實驗,數百個,可能數千個。
And we have way more that are coming up in the next several months.
未來幾個月我們還將推出更多內容。
Features like Adventure and Video Call, these are usually -- the main goal of those is to teach better so they're being run from the areas that have to do with teaching better.
像冒險和視訊通話這樣的功能通常是——這些功能的主要目標是更好地教學,因此它們是從與更好地教學相關的領域中運作的。
And they're going to continue running a bunch of experiments.
他們將繼續進行一系列實驗。
And the last thing that I'll say is the number of people that we have working on each one of these kind of engagement, teaching better, and monetization is roughly the same.
我要說的最後一件事是,我們在每一種參與、更好的教學和貨幣化方面工作的人數大致相同。
So we have about equal number of people working on each one of them.
因此,我們在每一項工作上都有大約相同數量的人員。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Curtis Nagle, BofA.
柯蒂斯‧內格爾,美國銀行。
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
All right.
好的。
Thanks so much for taking the question.
非常感謝您提出問題。
I guess first one, maybe just focusing on the family plan, it ticked up a little bit, I think you said 21% of subs.
我想第一個,也許只是專注於家庭計劃,它有點上升,我想你說的是 21% 的潛艇。
I guess in terms of the contribution of some of the new product features you've added versus or maybe in addition to trying to increase visibility of the product, what's been the contribution of those two?
我想就您添加的一些新產品功能的貢獻而言,或者除了嘗試提高產品的可見度之外,這兩者的貢獻是什麼?
And where do you think this tier can evolve in terms of total mix, let's just say, over the next 12 months?
您認為在未來 12 個月內,這一層在整體組合方面可以發展到什麼程度?
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
So we've done two things for the family plan, and you're right.
所以我們為家庭計劃做了兩件事,你是對的。
One is we've made the family plan better as in we've added features to it or fixed some things that weren't exactly bugs or things like kids under 13, the parents couldn't see their name, now they can.
一是我們已經使家庭計劃變得更好,因為我們添加了功能或修復了一些不完全是錯誤的東西,或者像 13 歲以下的孩子,父母看不到他們的名字,現在他們可以了。
So we've done stuff like that.
所以我們做了類似的事情。
And then we've also made it more visible.
然後我們也讓它更加明顯。
The majority of the contribution is actually making it more visible.
大部分貢獻實際上是讓它更加明顯。
The features are good and that will probably help over the long term in terms of the retention of the family plan.
這些功能很好,從長遠來看,這可能有助於保留家庭計劃。
But just generally making it more visible is what has had the most contribution.
但整體上使其更加明顯才是貢獻最大的。
In terms of what exactly the penetration will be over the next year, it's very hard to say.
就明年的滲透率而言,很難說。
I mean, I honestly just don't know the answer to that.
我的意思是,老實說我不知道答案。
I expect it to continue going up, but I just don't know at what speed.
我預計它會繼續上漲,但我只是不知道以什麼速度。
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Got it, okay.
明白了,好吧。
And then just the follow-up.
然後就是後續行動。
I don't think we touched -- maybe it was in the shareholder letter, I missed it, but the resurrected user, which was a focus for the last quarter, making the progress and you're focusing there.
我認為我們沒有觸及——也許是在股東信中,我錯過了,但復活的用戶,這是上個季度的焦點,取得了進展,你正在關注那裡。
So in terms of how do you want to measure it, whether it's subs or DAUs, the contribution in 3Q relative to 2Q, how did that look?
那麼,就您想如何衡量它而言,無論是訂閱者還是每日活躍用戶,第三季相對於第二季的貢獻,看起來怎麼樣?
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah.
是的。
Resurrected users are a pretty big opportunity for us.
復活的用戶對我們來說是一個很大的機會。
What's happening as time goes on, the way we look at top of funnel is basically either users that are coming in brand new to the app or users that are coming back after a long hiatus.
隨著時間的推移,我們觀察頻道頂部的方式基本上要么是全新進入該應用程式的用戶,要么是在長時間中斷後返回的用戶。
That's top performance.
這就是頂級表現。
So one is new users, the other one's resurrected users.
所以一個是新用戶,一個是復活用戶。
Obviously, when you just launch an app, all of your users are new users because you're brand new.
顯然,當您剛啟動應用程式時,所有用戶都是新用戶,因為您是全新的。
As time goes on, higher and higher fraction of your users that are from the top of the funnel are resurrected users.
隨著時間的推移,來自渠道頂部的用戶中復活的用戶比例會越來越高。
At this point, we have gotten to the point where more than half of the top of funnel is resurrected users.
至此,我們已經達到了超過一半的漏斗頂部是復活用戶的程度。
So there are -- on a given day, a larger number of users are coming back to the app after a long hiatus than new users.
因此,在某一天,在長時間中斷後返回該應用程式的用戶數量比新用戶數量還要多。
And that's just natural for a product.
這對於產品來說是很自然的事。
Of course, this also varies per geography depending on how penetrated this is.
當然,這也因地區而異,取決於其滲透程度。
The case, I mean, in the United States, where we've been operating for longer, there's a higher fraction of resurrected users versus in a country like maybe India, where we just haven't been operating for that long.
我的意思是,在美國,我們營運時間更長,復活用戶的比例更高,而在印度這樣的國家,我們運作時間不長。
This is a pretty major opportunity for us because we just haven't worked too much on the experience of when people come back.
這對我們來說是一個非常重要的機會,因為我們在人們回來時的體驗方面還沒有做太多工作。
So we feel pretty good about that, and that's going to be a good area of growth.
所以我們對此感覺非常好,這將是一個很好的成長領域。
The other thing that I should mention about resurrected users is a thing that is important for people to understand.
關於復活用戶,我應該提到的另一件事是人們必須理解的重要事情。
A lot of times when people think about the subscription models, they think, well, after a user has left, they'll never come back.
很多時候,當人們考慮訂閱模式時,他們會想,用戶離開後,他們永遠不會回來。
That is just not the case with Duolingo.
Duolingo 的情況並非如此。
I mean, with Duolingo, it is rare to see that a user leaves and never comes back.
我的意思是,在 Duolingo 中,很少看到用戶離開後就再也沒有回來。
Usually, when they stop using Duolingo, they usually come back.
通常,當他們停止使用 Duolingo 時,他們通常會回來。
I don't know exactly how long it will take them, but three months later, two years later, et cetera.
我不知道具體需要多長時間,但三個月後,兩年後,等等。
That's a pretty common thing.
這是很常見的事情。
And interestingly, this is just an interesting tidbit, the most common answer when you ask users why they stopped using Duolingo is, I haven't stopped, which is a funny thing.
有趣的是,這只是一個有趣的花絮,當你問使用者為什麼停止使用 Duolingo 時,最常見的答案是,我沒有停止,這是一件有趣的事情。
They still see themselves as Duolingo users even though they may not have been around for 35 days or 40 days.
他們仍然認為自己是 Duolingo 用戶,儘管他們可能已經離開 Duolingo 35 天或 40 天了。
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Appreciate the comments.
感謝您的評論。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Wyatt Swanson, D.A. Davidson.
懷亞特·斯旺森,D.A.戴維森。
Wyatt Swanson - Analyst
Wyatt Swanson - Analyst
Hey Guys.
嘿夥計們。
Thank you for taking the question.
感謝您提出問題。
Could you discuss maybe what you're seeing in terms of overall subscriber retention?
您能否討論一下您在整體訂戶保留率方面所看到的情況?
Just like any changes in retention trends as you roll out additional features?
就像推出附加功能時保留趨勢的任何變化一樣嗎?
And then are you seeing any differences in subscriber retention for Super plan versus Max?
那麼您是否發現 Super 套餐與 Max 套餐的訂戶保留率有何差異?
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
No, I appreciate the question.
不,我很欣賞這個問題。
The overall retention hasn't changed since we last talked about it last quarter or the quarter before.
自從我們上次在上個季度或前一個季度討論以來,整體保留率沒有變化。
Blended retention on the platform is pretty stable at this point.
目前,平台上的混合留存相當穩定。
That could change over time.
隨著時間的推移,情況可能會改變。
We don't actually have enough data yet on Max at scale to really know how that's going to retain.
實際上,我們還沒有足夠的 Max 大規模數據來真正了解它將如何保留。
We have enough data that makes us feel like comfortable that the LTV will be superior to Super.
我們有足夠的數據讓我們確信 LTV 將優於 Super。
But we don't know exactly where that's going to stabilize, just like we don't know where the top line run rate will stabilize.
但我們不知道具體會穩定在哪裡,就像我們不知道營收運行率會穩定在哪裡一樣。
So we're watching and we'll let you all know how it's trending.
所以我們正在觀察,我們會讓大家知道它的趨勢如何。
But so far, there's been no major changes on the platform and retention.
但到目前為止,平台和保留方面還沒有重大變化。
Wyatt Swanson - Analyst
Wyatt Swanson - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Okay.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Arvind Ramnani, Piper Sandler.
阿爾文德·拉姆納尼,派珀·桑德勒。
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Hey.
嘿。
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
By the way, really cool animation.
順便說一句,動畫真的很酷。
Yeah, Luis, I really like listening to you but Lily was -- I enjoyed her.
是的,路易斯,我真的很喜歡聽你說話,但莉莉 - 我很喜歡她。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
You know what, she's doing part of my job now.
你知道嗎,她現在正在做我的部分工作。
Over time, she's going to do more and more of my job and I can just retire.
隨著時間的推移,她會承擔越來越多的我的工作,我就可以退休了。
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Yeah.
是的。
The core part of her job, I think, it's sort of very enjoyable to see and it's probably one of the most enjoyable earnings calls that I had in several quarters.
我認為,她工作的核心部分是非常令人愉快的,這可能是我幾個季度以來最愉快的財報電話會議之一。
Just a quick a question on DAUs, right?
簡單問一個關於 DAU 的問題,對嗎?
I mean, I think it's a big focus for investors.
我的意思是,我認為這是投資者關注的重點。
And I think we have talked about in the past, like long term, should we be comfortable as long as DAUs is, at some point, higher than revenue growth?
我認為我們過去曾討論過,從長遠來看,只要日活躍用戶在某個時候高於收入成長,我們就應該感到滿意嗎?
That's like a more normalized way to think about it.
這就像是一種更正常的思考方式。
Because the last two years, we've talked about extensively that there was a lot of unusual factors that got it to a really kind of impressive level.
因為在過去的兩年裡,我們廣泛討論了有很多不尋常的因素使它達到了令人印象深刻的水平。
But longer term, how should we think about the relationship with revenue growth and DAUs?
但從長遠來看,我們應該如何思考收入成長和 DAU 之間的關係?
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
I don't know exactly how to answer that question.
我不知道到底該如何回答這個問題。
I mean, my sense is for the last -- it really has been a little over two years where every single quarter, our DAU growth is somewhere between 50% to 60%.
我的意思是,我的感覺是過去兩年多一點的時間裡,每季我們的 DAU 成長都在 50% 到 60% 之間。
Now this obviously won't last forever.
現在這顯然不會永遠持續下去。
I mean, we are saying for the rest of the year, at least, it will be 50%.
我的意思是,我們說今年剩餘時間至少會達到 50%。
It won't last forever.
它不會永遠持續下去。
But my sense is that we are going to continue seeing strong DAU growth for a while just because the main way in which we grow is word of mouth and also adding more features to the -- or improving our features.
但我的感覺是,我們將在一段時間內繼續看到 DAU 的強勁成長,因為我們成長的主要方式是口碑傳播,以及添加更多功能或改進我們的功能。
And we just have a really good set of improvements planned.
我們剛剛計劃了一系列非常好的改進。
So I think that will be the case for a while.
所以我認為這種情況會持續一段時間。
I don't know what steady state will be and I don't even know what that steady state means.
我不知道穩定狀態是什麼,我甚至不知道穩定狀態意味著什麼。
But I don't know if, Matt, you have anything about that?
但我不知道,馬特,你對此有什麼看法嗎?
I'm not sure how to answer that question.
我不知道如何回答這個問題。
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
No, I don't have the perfect ratio, Arvind.
不,我沒有完美的比例,Arvind。
But I do think just give me a chance to remind everyone that we have not just several ways that we can grow users.
但我確實認為給我一個機會提醒大家,我們不只幾種方法可以增加使用者。
So Luis has already talked about new to the platform, resurrected users or users has been away from the platform for a month coming back.
所以 Luis 已經談到了平台的新用戶、復活的用戶或是離開平台一個月的用戶回來了。
There's many levers we have to grow users.
我們有很多手段來增加用戶。
And then there's many experiments, hundreds of experiments every quarter where we grow conversion from free to paid.
然後還有很多實驗,每個季度都有數百次實驗,我們可以提高從免費到付費的轉換率。
And then there's experiments and vectors that we have to retain subscribers better, and then there's mix shift between plans and then there's pricing.
然後是我們必須更好地留住訂戶的實驗和載體,然後是計劃之間的混合轉變,然後是定價。
And I won't bore you.
我不會讓你厭煩。
But I would just say that there's a lot of vectors throughout the funnel from free user to retained paid subscriber that give me confidence that we can sustain really nice revenue growth above 25%, say, in a lot of different DAU environments.
但我只想說,從免費用戶到保留的付費用戶,整個管道中有很多向量,這讓我相信我們可以在許多不同的 DAU 環境中維持超過 25% 的非常好的收入成長。
Now I agree with Luis.
現在我同意路易斯的觀點。
We have a bunch of belief that we'll be able to grow users nicely for some time.
我們堅信我們能夠在一段時間內很好地增加用戶。
But I think there's a ton of lever.
但我認為有很多槓桿。
So yeah, that's why we feel comfortable that our revenue growth rate should stay strong for a long time.
所以,是的,這就是為什麼我們對我們的收入成長率應該長期保持強勁感到放心。
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Yes, perfect.
是的,完美。
And I just have one follow-up question.
我只有一個後續問題。
Certainly, your Duocon, your Consumer Day, was really enjoyable.
當然,你們的 Duocon,你們的消費者日,真的很令人愉快。
But we really don't get -- I mean, the investment company, we really don't have any insight of how does one compare to the other, right?
但我們真的不明白——我的意思是,投資公司,我們真的不知道一個公司與另一個公司相比如何,對嗎?
I mean, we're looking at it from a product.
我的意思是,我們是從產品的角度來看它。
And so are there any kind of metrics or anecdotes you can share from this year's kind of Consumer Day versus -- Duocon this year versus last year?
那麼,您可以分享今年的消費者日與今年 Duocon 與去年相比的任何指標或軼事嗎?
Any incremental from a metrics or anecdotes?
指標或軼事有什麼增量嗎?
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
For Duocon?
為了多康?
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
The number of live views on Duocon was 3 times the number of live views from last year.
Duocon上的直播觀看次數是去年直播觀看次數的3倍。
There's all kinds of ways to measure them because -- by the way, live views is one thing but we also get to see a lot of views over the next week, over the next month, et cetera.
有各種各樣的方法來衡量它們,因為——順便說一句,實時觀看是一回事,但我們也會在下週、下個月等等看到很多觀看次數。
But it's generally, really, every single year, we're just getting a significantly higher number of both live views and also historical views for each Duocon.
但總的來說,確實,每一年,我們都會獲得明顯更高數量的每個 Duocon 的即時觀看次數和歷史觀看次數。
And I think it just has to do with the fact that our brand is more well known.
我認為這與我們的品牌更知名這一事實有關。
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Perfect.
完美的。
Just if I can slip one last one in.
要是我能把最後一顆塞進去就好了。
When you think of Duolingo Max and Super, I think one of other things has been like what product or features go into one versus the other?
當您想到 Duolingo Max 和 Super 時,我認為其中一件事就是其中一個與另一個相比有哪些產品或功能?
They will have -- is it still like a very [ambiguous] line?
他們將會—它仍然像一條非常[模糊]的線嗎?
Or do you have a kind of what goes into each?
或者你對每種情況都有自己的看法嗎?
And then of course, you have Max, right, which is another thing here.
當然,還有麥克斯,對吧,這是另一回事了。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah.
是的。
I mean, I can tell you where we're at the moment.
我的意思是,我可以告訴你我們現在在哪裡。
I cannot guarantee that we'll be there three months from now because things change here fast.
我不能保證三個月後我們會到達那裡,因為這裡的情況變化得很快。
At the moment, where we're at is Super Duolingo has the features that basically, where you pay for convenience, for example, turning off ads or unlimited lives, like unlimited hearts.
目前,Super Duolingo 的功能基本上是為了方便而付費,例如關閉廣告或無限生命,例如無限紅心。
That's paying for convenience.
這就是為了方便而付費。
Max, the more time passes, the more in my head and in our product team's head is basically Video Call with Lily.
Max,時間過去得越久,我和我們產品團隊的腦子裡基本上就是和 Lily 進行視訊通話。
We have other features in there but by a wide margin, at this moment, Video Call with Lily is the killer feature for Max.
我們還有其他功能,但差距很大,目前,與 Lily 的視訊通話是 Max 的殺手級功能。
And if you think about what that is, it's just practice conversation.
如果你想想那是什麼,那就是練習對話。
So at the moment, the way I'm thinking of Super versus Max is Super, you pay for convenience; Max, you pay for getting better conversation.
所以目前,我對 Super 與 Max 的看法是 Super,你為方便付出代價;麥克斯,你要為更好的對話付出代價。
And that's it.
就是這樣。
That's at the moment.
就是現在。
Again, maybe when we talk in three months, I'll tell you something completely different.
再說一次,也許當我們三個月後談話時,我會告訴你一些完全不同的事情。
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Arvind Ramnani - Analyst
Perfect.
完美的。
Thank you so much.
太感謝了。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Alex Sklar, Raymond James.
亞歷克斯·斯克拉,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。
Alexander Sklar - Analyst
Alexander Sklar - Analyst
Great, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Luis, I kind of want to follow up on that Video Call conversation.
路易斯,我有點想跟進視訊通話的談話。
What has the early data told you so far?
到目前為止,早期數據告訴了您什麼?
I mean, you had a trial period.
我的意思是,你有試用期。
Now the limited launch in terms of usage.
現在在使用方面有限推出。
And I'm curious if there's been any notable uptick in terms of like growing time per session or better street retention that that might translate to higher Max retention or greater adoption longer term?
我很好奇,每次會話的時間增加或更好的街道保留率等方面是否有任何顯著的上升,這可能會轉化為更高的最大保留率或更大的長期採用率?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah.
是的。
The usage metrics for Video Call are very good.
視訊通話的使用指標非常好。
And what I really like is that they match our expectations.
我真正喜歡的是它們符合我們的期望。
And by that, I mean, English learners use it more than non-English learners because they're more interested in conversation.
我的意思是,英語學習者比非英語學習者更常使用它,因為他們對對話更感興趣。
Also for any language, more advanced users use it more than less advanced users.
同樣,對於任何語言,更高級的用戶都會比不太高級的用戶使用它更多。
And it's exactly what we want.
這正是我們想要的。
And we're making changes to the experience.
我們正在改變體驗。
We're trying to make it more engaging.
我們正在努力使其更具吸引力。
For example, you saw the video that we played at the beginning of this call, Lily has a lot of different kind of facial expressions, et cetera.
例如,您看到了我們在通話開始時播放的視頻,莉莉有很多不同的面部表情,等等。
We're adding more and more of those to make it more and more realistic.
我們正在添加越來越多的內容,使其變得越來越現實。
And every time we do that, it becomes more engaging and we are seeing that.
每次我們這樣做,它都會變得更加有吸引力,我們也看到了這一點。
So we do see increases in the number of calls that we'll have or the amount of time that they're spending with it whenever we make it more realistic or the conversation topics are better.
因此,每當我們讓它變得更現實或對話主題更好時,我們確實會看到我們接到的電話數量或他們花在電話上的時間增加。
The other thing is we're going to be getting a lot better with the actual conversation topics.
另一件事是我們將在實際對話主題方面做得更好。
For example, right now, Lily lives in a world where, for example, news doesn't really happen today.
例如,現在,莉莉生活在一個今天沒有真正發生新聞的世界。
What should have happened today is Lily should have talked about -- if you call her, she should have talked about the election.
今天應該發生的事情是莉莉應該談論的——如果你打電話給她,她應該談論選舉。
But that's not something that is currently happening.
但這不是目前正在發生的事情。
But in a few months, that's how it's going to be.
但幾個月後,事情就會變成這樣。
So we're feeling pretty good about that.
所以我們對此感覺很好。
Hopefully, I think, that answers your question.
我想,希望這能回答你的問題。
Alexander Sklar - Analyst
Alexander Sklar - Analyst
Yeah.
是的。
No, great color there.
不,那裡的顏色很棒。
Matt, maybe just a follow-up for you, but you referenced in the prepared remarks, still a little over a month away.
馬特,也許只是你的後續行動,但你在準備好的評論中提到了這一點,還有一個多月的時間。
Any changes to how you're planning on approaching holiday kind of New Year season from a promotional standpoint this year, given you'll have a wider Max rollout?
鑑於今年 Max 的推出範圍更廣,從促銷角度來看,您計劃如何應對新年假期有何變化?
And any different kind of timing assumptions that are embedded in your outlook?
您的展望中包含任何不同類型的時間假設嗎?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
No, the outlook is always a bit uncertain around the fact that we launched our one promo of the year and it has four days in December and then obviously, the month of January.
不,前景總是有點不確定,因為我們推出了今年的促銷活動,它在 12 月有四天,然後顯然是 1 月。
So that's the same as it's always been in years past.
所以這和過去幾年一樣。
We do run experiments every year to service things differently, to promote it in different ways.
我們每年都會進行實驗,以不同的方式提供服務,以不同的方式推廣它。
And we'll start running those -- we usually run them in early December and then launch them.
我們將開始運行它們——我們通常在 12 月初運行它們,然後啟動它們。
Those are a bit tougher to predict.
這些有點難以預測。
But that's all incorporated into the guidance.
但這都已納入指南中。
Alexander Sklar - Analyst
Alexander Sklar - Analyst
Thank you, both.
謝謝你們,兩位。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Shweta Khajuria, Wolfe Research.
Shweta Khajuria,沃爾夫研究。
Shweta Khajuria - Analyst
Shweta Khajuria - Analyst
Thanks, Debbie.
謝謝,黛比。
Thanks for taking my questions.
感謝您回答我的問題。
I guess, I'll try two, please.
我想,我會嘗試兩個。
One is on international markets.
一是在國際市場上。
If you talked about France and Korea, in last quarter, you had mentioned those two as adding marketing managers post your success in Japan.
如果您談到法國和韓國,在上個季度,當您在日本取得成功後,您會在增加行銷經理時提到這兩個國家。
So how is that tracking?
那麼追蹤情況如何呢?
And have you added more international countries with marketing managers?
您是否增加了更多國際國家的行銷經理?
That's question one.
這是問題一。
And then the second question is on your marketing strategy.
第二個問題是關於你的行銷策略。
If you're seeing anything -- if you could comment on the pricing that you're seeing on social media platforms, how have ROIs trended for you?
如果您看到任何東西 - 如果您可以評論您在社交媒體平台上看到的定價,您的投資回報率趨勢如何?
Anything in particular that you're seeing over the past quarter and in this quarter to-date?
在過去的季度和本季迄今為止,您看到了什麼特別的事情嗎?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Okay, great.
好的,太好了。
So international markets, yes.
所以國際市場,是的。
We very recently added marketing managers for France and Korea.
我們最近增加了法國和韓國的營銷經理。
And France is a little longer, maybe a few months, and Korea is really like weeks.
法國的時間要長一些,可能是幾個月,而韓國則需要幾週的時間。
So it's too early to say in Korea.
所以現在說韓國還太早。
France is looking very good.
法國看起來非常好。
It's just, again, every time that we follow the playbook, it ends up working.
再次強調,每次我們遵循劇本時,它最終都會奏效。
It may take a little longer in some countries than others, but it ends up working after a few months.
在某些國家可能需要比其他國家更長的時間,但幾個月後就會發揮作用。
And we are already seeing it working in France.
我們已經看到它在法國發揮作用。
We are about to add also, like I mentioned, Italy and Turkey.
正如我所提到的,我們還將添加義大利和土耳其。
So we're going to be doing that.
所以我們將這樣做。
And we have a few others that we're considering adding for next year.
我們也考慮在明年添加其他一些內容。
In terms of marketing strategy, you said things like social media prices, etcetera.
在行銷策略方面,您提到了社群媒體價格等。
We don't pay for the vast majority of our social media stuff.
我們不為絕大多數社群媒體內容付費。
I mean, we do a little bit of performance marketing.
我的意思是,我們做了一些效果行銷。
But the social media that we're known for, where like our TikTok videos or our YouTube Shorts, et cetera, that is all organic.
但我們所熟知的社群媒體,例如我們的 TikTok 影片或 YouTube Shorts 等等,都是有機的。
We don't pay for that.
我們不為此付費。
So the cost of each one of those videos is just the cost to make it.
因此,每個影片的成本只是製作它的成本。
And the majority of them, it's like a couple of hundred dollars to make it, and that's it.
大多數人的製作成本大約是幾百美元,僅此而已。
We do a little bit of performance marketing, but it's kind of small enough that that's not affecting us, whether -- it doesn't really affect too much whether the prices are going up or down.
我們做了一點績效行銷,但規模夠小,不會影響我們,無論價格上漲或下跌,它都不會真正影響太多。
I'm sure there's an effect but it's just not something that I personally track.
我確信有效果,但這不是我個人所追蹤的。
Shweta Khajuria - Analyst
Shweta Khajuria - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Mark Mahaney, Evercore.
馬克·馬哈尼,Evercore。
Mark Stephen Mahaney - Analyst
Mark Stephen Mahaney - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Could I run a couple of questions for you?
我可以問你幾個問題嗎?
The growth of the US market, kind of as your oldest most mature market in terms of bookings or revenue or MAUs or DAUs, is that still pretty consistent with that of the global growth rate?
美國市場的成長,在預訂量、收入、每月活躍用戶數或每日活躍用戶數方面,可以說是你們最古老、最成熟的市場,這與全球成長率仍然相當一致嗎?
That's question one.
這是問題一。
Secondly, I'm sorry if you covered it early on.
其次,如果你很早就涵蓋了它,我很抱歉。
Have you said anything about what kind of traction you're actually seeing for Max?
你有沒有說過你真正看到馬克斯有什麼樣的吸引力?
I know you talked about what percentage of the user base has access to it now.
我知道您談到了現在有多少比例的用戶可以訪問它。
But did you provide any disclosure at all and what kind of traction you're seeing for it?
但您是否提供了任何披露以及您認為它有什麼樣的吸引力?
And then third, I just want to ask about an ARPU question.
第三,我想問 ARPU 問題。
And Matt, I know there's a lot of moving pieces in that kind of average bookings per average sub, but one of those factors is this greater adoption of Super and Max.
馬特,我知道每個潛水艇的平均預訂量有很多變化,但其中一個因素是 Super 和 Max 的廣泛採用。
Are those big enough now to kind of sustainably cause ARPU to grow going forwards?
這些規模現在是否足夠大,足以讓 ARPU 持續成長?
Thanks a lot.
多謝。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Let me take the first two, and then Matt will take -- Matt answers anything with acronyms.
讓我先講前兩個,然後馬特會講——馬特用縮寫詞回答任何問題。
Okay.
好的。
So the US market, yes, growth in the US market is good.
所以美國市場,是的,美國市場的成長很好。
It is growing similar to most countries.
它的成長與大多數國家相似。
Again, it's not the case that the US is the fastest-growing country, but it's also not the slowest country.
再說一次,美國並不是成長最快的國家,但也不是成長最慢的國家。
And it's also not the case that we have huge disparity between countries.
國與國之間也並非存在巨大差異。
Most countries are kind of growing at similar rates and it's a similar rate to our overall average.
大多數國家都以相似的速度成長,並且與我們的整體平均值相似。
So the US is somewhere, I don't know exactly where it is, but roughly average.
所以美國在某個地方,我不知道具體在哪裡,但大致處於平均水平。
So we feel pretty good about the US growth.
因此,我們對美國的成長感到非常滿意。
In terms of Max traction, yes, we feel very good about Max traction.
就最大牽引力而言,是的,我們對最大牽引力感覺非常好。
And in particular, the reason we feel very good about it is because over the last couple of months, we added this extra feature, which is Video Call with Lily, and that is really allowing us to advertise Max in a much better way.
特別是,我們對此感到非常滿意的原因是,在過去的幾個月裡,我們添加了這個額外的功能,即與Lily 的視訊通話,這確實使我們能夠以更好的方式為Max 做廣告。
Because what happens with Video Call with Lily -- the previous Max features that we had explained my answer and roleplay were a little hard to understand for users.
因為與 Lily 進行視訊通話會發生什麼 - 我們之前解釋過我的答案和角色扮演的 Max 功能對於用戶來說有點難以理解。
But this one is so easy to understand.
但這很容易理解。
Within 2 seconds, people get the ideas like you can get to talk to Lily.
2 秒之內,人們就會想到你可以和 Lily 交談。
And you just say that and be like, Oh, well, yes, I want that.
你就這樣說,然後說,哦,好吧,是的,我想要那個。
And so we're seeing really good attraction in terms of people actually buying Max.
因此,我們看到人們真正購買 Max 的吸引力非常大。
I don't think we released the precise numbers just yet but we feel good about it.
我認為我們還沒有公佈確切的數字,但我們對此感覺良好。
And then Matt, you want to talk about ARPU?
然後 Matt,你想談談 ARPU 嗎?
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Mark.
是的,馬克。
So I'm talking about ARPUs, it's actually revenue, not bookings on this part of the conversation.
所以我說的是 ARPU,它實際上是收入,而不是這部分對話的預訂。
But as you can see in the numbers, our ARPU trended towards 0% year-over-year, which we've talked about for the past couple of quarters about getting it to flattish, I think, was a word I used.
但正如您在數字中看到的那樣,我們的 ARPU 同比趨向於 0%,我認為,我們在過去幾個季度中一直在討論如何使其趨於平穩,這是我用過的一個詞。
And it's now, I guess, technically flattish, it's 0% year-over-year.
我想現在技術上持平,年比為 0%。
And we do think it can go a bit higher.
我們確實認為它可以更高一點。
The things that impact ARPU for us are basically what you said, there are plan mix.
對我們來說影響ARPU的東西基本上就是你說的,有計畫組合。
So is it Super -- our family historically has changed the pricing with family plan obviously being higher ARPU.
所以是超級 - 我們的家庭歷史上已經改變了家庭計劃的定價,顯然是更高的 ARPU。
And then going forward, Max will definitely impact that, given it's 2x the price.
展望未來,Max 肯定會對此產生影響,因為它的價格是原來的兩倍。
Right now, Max is not of the scale that is really showing up materially in the ARPU mix right now, again, because revenue is amortized over 12 months.
目前,Max 的規模還沒有真正在 ARPU 組合中體現出來,因為收入是在 12 個月內攤提的。
And so we've only really seen a material impact in the past quarter.
因此,我們直到上個季度才真正看到了實質影響。
So I expect that to come through.
所以我希望這能夠實現。
And then the other things that change ARPU are foreign currencies, regional country mix.
其他改變 ARPU 的因素是外幣、地區國家組合。
So I think going forward from that, we'll update you all on how family plan, Super, and Max are trending on ARPU.
因此,我認為接下來,我們將向大家介紹家庭計畫、Super 和 Max 在 ARPU 上的趨勢。
But right now, we feel good about the trend.
但現在,我們對這一趨勢感覺良好。
It's gone from negative year-over-year growth, so to 0% this quarter and probably can stay there or go a little bit higher.
本季同比負成長已變為 0%,並且可能會保持該水準或略高一些。
Mark Stephen Mahaney - Analyst
Mark Stephen Mahaney - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you, Matt.
謝謝你,馬特。
Thank you, Luis.
謝謝你,路易斯。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
We have two more questions to get through in eight minutes.
我們還有兩個問題需要在八分鐘內解決。
Chris Kuntarich, UBS.
克里斯·昆塔里奇,瑞銀集團。
Christopher Kuntarich - Analyst
Christopher Kuntarich - Analyst
Right.
正確的。
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
Maybe just another one here on Max.
也許這只是麥克斯的另一件事。
I think you talked about seeing more engagement with conversations with Lily from English speakers versus not, like, I guess, it's English versus not, which puts us at kind of a 50/50 dynamic where kind of be thinking about who's actually adopting the Max sub at this point?
我想你談到看到說英語的人與不說英語的人與莉莉的對話有更多的參與,就像,我猜,這是英語與非英語的對話,這讓我們處於一種50/ 50 的動態狀態,在這種情況下,我們會思考誰實際上採用了Max此時分?
Should we be thinking about it as roughly evenly split at this point?
此時我們是否應該將其視為大致平均分配?
Or are we talking about English being more closer to 2:1, 3:1 sort of adoption of Max at this point?
或者我們現在談論的是英語更接近 2:1、3:1 的 Max 採用方式?
Or any sort of color you can provide to help frame that would be helpful.
或者你可以提供任何類型的顏色來幫助框架,這會很有幫助。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah, I'll maybe put some ticks on this.
是的,我可能會在這上面打勾。
Max is significantly more expensive than Super.
Max 比 Super 貴得多。
In the US, for example, it's twice the price.
例如,在美國,價格是其兩倍。
So you would expect that wealthier countries are adopting Max more and there's some push there.
因此,您可能會期望較富裕的國家會更多地採用 Max,並且會有一些推動力。
On the other hand, the main feature for Max is Video Call with Lily, which we are seeing that English learners, which predominantly are in poor countries, use that twice as much when they have access to it.
另一方面,Max 的主要功能是與 Lily 進行視訊通話,我們發現英語學習者(主要來自貧困國家)在有機會使用該功能時,使用該功能的次數是該功能的兩倍。
So that would give a push towards English learners/poorer countries adopting Max.
因此,這將推動英語學習者/較貧窮國家採用 Max。
So there's this push and pull on either side.
所以兩邊都有這種推力和拉力。
I don't know where it's going to settle because, for example, right now, Max is not available in some very large English-learning countries, like it's not available in India, for example.
我不知道它會在哪裡解決,因為,例如,現在,Max 在一些非常大的英語學習國家/地區不可用,例如在印度不可用。
So we're going to put it there and that will happen over time.
所以我們會把它放在那裡,這會隨著時間的推移而發生。
So I don't know where it's going to settle.
所以我不知道它會在哪裡定居。
At the moment, there are more Max users in wealthy countries.
目前,富裕國家的 Max 用戶較多。
So they are usually the ones that are not learning English.
所以他們通常是那些沒有學習英語的人。
But that, I think, is going to change.
但我認為這種情況將會改變。
I don't know if it's going to be -- I just don't know where it will settle, but that's going to change some.
我不知道它是否會——我只是不知道它會在哪裡定居,但這將會改變一些。
Christopher Kuntarich - Analyst
Christopher Kuntarich - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
And maybe just -- I noticed the call-out that there was a meaningful contribution from Max to total bookings in 3Q.
也許只是——我注意到有人指出 Max 對第三季的總預訂量做出了有意義的貢獻。
I don't believe that was in the 2Q press release here.
我不相信這是第二季新聞稿中的內容。
Any sort of kind of framework to be thinking about there?
有什麼需要考慮的框架嗎?
Like should we be thinking about that now as over a low single-digit sort of growth contribution within the quarter?
就像我們現在應該考慮這個季度內的低個位數成長貢獻嗎?
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I mean, I think that that's why we called it out.
是的,我的意思是,我認為這就是我們呼籲的原因。
Q3 was really the change in terms of Max materiality.
第三季確實是最大實質方面的變化。
And then as I called out in the Q4 guide, the Q4 guide does incorporate what we believe will happen with Max in Video Call in Q4.
然後,正如我在第四季度指南中指出的那樣,第四季度指南確實包含了我們認為 Max 在第四季度視訊通話中將會發生的情況。
So it is now a meaningful part of the guide and our performance.
所以它現在是指南和我們表演的一個有意義的部分。
We don't again -- I think that we're still in the initial stages of this, especially with Video Call.
我們不會再這樣做了——我認為我們仍處於初始階段,尤其是視訊通話方面。
So in Q3, I referenced the fact that that led to like some one-time bumps as we rolled it out more broadly.
因此,在第三季度,我提到了這樣一個事實:當我們更廣泛地推廣它時,這導致了一些一次性的障礙。
I think we'll probably see some of that in Q4 as well.
我認為我們也可能會在第四季度看到其中的一些。
But yeah, I think that's all incorporated in the guide.
但是,是的,我認為這一切都包含在指南中。
Christopher Kuntarich - Analyst
Christopher Kuntarich - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
And just a clarification from earlier.
只是之前的澄清。
Did you say whether or not we should be expecting it with the New Year's discount offering?
你說我們是否應該期待新年折扣優惠?
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, we're going to run experiments on it.
是的,我們將對其進行實驗。
But you'll just have to show up in the last four days of the year and figure it out.
但你只需要在一年的最後四天出現並找出答案。
Christopher Kuntarich - Analyst
Christopher Kuntarich - Analyst
I'll be there.
我會在那裡。
Thank you, guys.
謝謝你們,夥計們。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Crystal Li, CMS.
李晶,CMS。
Crystal Li - Analyst
Crystal Li - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you, gentlemen for taking my questions.
謝謝先生們回答我的問題。
I'm very honored to be the final one asking questions.
我很榮幸能成為最後一個提問的人。
So I'm just wondering how's your view on the paying ratio trend for Duolingo Max in longer term?
所以我想知道您對 Duolingo Max 的長期支付率趨勢有何看法?
Do you think it will exceed that of the Super Duolingo plan?
你認為它會超過Super Duolingo計劃嗎?
And could you share more view on the competition landscape on the AI video core products?
您能否分享更多關於AI影片核心產品競爭格局的看法?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Yeah.
是的。
We don't really know where it will settle, whether it will be a higher fraction of people doing Max versus Super.
我們真的不知道它會在哪裡解決,也不知道使用 Max 的人是否會比使用 Super 的人比例更高。
I think it will depend on the country and our relative prices to them.
我認為這將取決於國家以及我們與他們的相對價格。
So it's very hard to say where this will end.
所以很難說這會在哪裡結束。
Now in terms of competition, generally, what gets us to stand out, what gets us to be the category leader in language learning is a number of things.
現在就競爭而言,一般來說,是什麼讓我們脫穎而出,讓我們成為語言學習領域的領導者有很多因素。
I mean, first of all, we have understood that the hardest thing about learning something by ourselves or learning a language by ourselves is staying motivated.
我的意思是,首先,我們已經明白,自學某些東西或自學語言最困難的事情是保持動力。
So everything we do tries to keep you engaged.
因此,我們所做的一切都是為了讓您保持參與。
I mean, the app is very gamified.
我的意思是,該應用程式非常遊戲化。
For example, also our Conversation feature: You don't talk to a random character, you talk to Lily, and Lily starts becoming your friend, et cetera.
例如,我們的對話功能:你不與隨機角色交談,你與莉莉交談,莉莉開始成為你的朋友,等等。
So we really try to make everything we do engaging.
所以我們真的很努力讓我們所做的一切都有吸引力。
And that's something that really makes us stand out.
這確實讓我們脫穎而出。
The other big thing that makes us stand out is our premium model where, really, the vast majority of our users use Duolingo for free because our free tier is very good.
讓我們脫穎而出的另一件大事是我們的高級模式,實際上,我們的絕大多數用戶免費使用 Duolingo,因為我們的免費套餐非常好。
Now that does a lot of things.
現在它可以做很多事情。
For one, it gives us a very large scale.
其一,它為我們帶來了非常大的規模。
And having such a large scale allows us to collect data to teach better and also to make Duolingo more engaging.
如此大規模的規模讓我們能夠收集數據,以便更好地教學,也讓 Duolingo 更具吸引力。
So we just have a lot more data than anybody in history about how people learn languages.
因此,關於人們如何學習語言,我們比歷史上任何人都擁有更多的數據。
And the other thing that the free tier does is that it acts as our marketing engine.
免費套餐的另一件事是它充當我們的行銷引擎。
The reason we can be so efficient with marketing, I mean, we really spend very little on marketing compared to most apps of any kind.
我的意思是,與大多數任何類型的應用程式相比,我們在行銷方面的支出確實很少。
And the reason that we can do that is because our free users basically act as our marketing engine.
我們之所以能做到這一點,是因為我們的免費用戶基本上充當了我們的行銷引擎。
They tell their friends.
他們告訴他們的朋友。
And so that's what we think differentiates us from competition.
因此,我們認為這就是我們在競爭中的獨特之處。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Crystal Li - Analyst
Crystal Li - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
That's very helpful.
這非常有幫助。
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Deborah Belevan - Investor Relations
Okay.
好的。
Well, that's it for questions.
好了,問題就這樣了。
I'll turn it back to Luis to wrap it up.
我會把它轉回給路易斯來總結。
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder
Thank you, Debbie.
謝謝你,黛比。
I'd just like to thank everyone for joining us.
我只想感謝大家加入我們。
And until next time, enjoy video calling with Lily in whatever language you're learning.
直到下次,無論您正在學習什麼語言,都可以與 Lily 進行視訊通話。