達登餐飲 (DRI) 2014 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Thank you for standing by.

  • At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode.

  • After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.

  • (Operator Instructions)

  • Today's conference is being recorded.

  • If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

  • I would like to introduce your host for today's conference.

  • Matthew Stroud, you may begin.

  • - VP IR

  • Thanks, Kathy.

  • Good morning, everyone.

  • With me today are Clarence Otis, Darden's Chairman and CEO; Drew Madsen, who, as we announced this morning, has stepped down as Darden's President and COO in anticipation of his retirement at the end of the second quarter; Brad Richmond, Darden's CFO; and Gene Lee, who has succeeded Drew as Darden's President and COO.

  • We welcome those off you joining us by telephone or the Internet.

  • During the course of this conference call, Darden Restaurants officers and employees may make forward-looking statements concerning the Company's expectations, goals or objectives.

  • Forward-looking statements are made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

  • Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which such statements are made.

  • And we undertake no obligation to update such statements to reflect events or circumstances arising after such date.

  • We wish to caution investors not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements.

  • By their nature forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from those anticipated in the statements.

  • The most recent of these uncertainties are described in Darden's Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and Form 8-K reports, including all amendments to those reports.

  • These risks and uncertainties include -- food safety and food-borne illness concerns; litigation; unfavorable publicity; risks relating to public policy changes in federal, state and local regulation of our business, including healthcare reform; labor and insurance costs; technology failures; failure to execute a business continuity plan following a disaster; health concerns including virus outbreaks; intense competition; failure to drive sales growth; failure to successfully integrate the Yard House business and the additional indebtedness incurred to finance the Yard House acquisition; our plans to expand our newer brands like Bahama Breeze, Seasons 52 and Eddie V's; a lack of suitable new restaurant locations; higher than anticipated costs to open, close or remodel restaurants; a failure to execute innovative marketing tactics and increased advertising and marketing costs; a failure to develop and recruit effective leaders; a failure to address cost pressures; shortages or interruptions in the delivery of food and other products; adverse weather conditions and natural disasters; volatility in the market value of derivatives; economic factors specific to the restaurant industry and general macroeconomic factors including unemployment and interest rates; disruptions in the financial markets; risks of doing business with franchisees and vendors in foreign markets; failure to protect our service marks or other intellectual property; a possible impairment of the carrying value of our goodwill or other intangible assets; a failure of our internal controls over financial reporting or changes in accounting standards; and other factors and uncertainties discussed from time to time in reports filed by Darden with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

  • A copy of our press release announcing our earnings, the Form 8-K used to furnish the release to the Securities and Exchange Commission, and any other financial and statistical information about the period covered in the conference call, including any information required by Regulation G, is available under the heading Investor Relations on our website at Darden.com.

  • We plan to release fiscal 2014 second-quarter earnings and same-restaurant sales for fiscal September, October and November 2014 on Thursday, December 19, 2013, before the market opens, with a conference call shortly after.

  • We released first-quarter earnings results this morning.

  • These results were available on PR NewsWire and other wire services.

  • We recognize that most of you have reviewed our first-quarter results so we won't take time to go through them in detail in an effort to provide more time for your questions.

  • We will offer a line item summary of the P&L, discuss our financial outlook for fiscal 2014, and discuss our brand-by-brand operating performance summary.

  • With that, let me turn it over to Clarence.

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Matthew.

  • From a same-restaurant sales perspective, this was a difficult quarter for the restaurant industry generally, and casual dining in particular.

  • And obviously was a difficult quarter for us.

  • This summer's sharp spike down in comparable sales within casual dining follows what I think we all know were some pronounced spikes up and down this past winter and spring.

  • And so we've concluded that as the sluggish and uneven economic recovery we've been experiencing for some time now persists, we can expect appreciably greater sales volatility in our industry.

  • And it's important for us to be appropriately prepared for that because, with the changes that we're making at our two largest brands, that volatility is amplified here at Darden.

  • And so, as a result of that, we've taken steps that will reduce our operating support spending by $50 million a year on an ongoing basis, beginning next year, our fiscal 2015.

  • For this year, fiscal 2014, the reduction will be approximately $25 million.

  • And that will be offset by approximately $10 million of upfront costs to implement the plan.

  • The plan does involve the elimination of a meaningful number of support positions, about 85.

  • And out of respect for the people who are affected most directly, we won't get into a great deal of detail about what it entails.

  • What's important is that these actions provide us with the financial flexibility in the face of heightened volatility to do two things we need to do to regain operating momentum.

  • Invest in providing affordability to those guests who need more affordability.

  • And invest in refining our offers in ways that are responsive to guests who are more focused on other attributes of their dining experiences.

  • And with that, let me turn it over to Brad to provide some financial detail about the first quarter.

  • - CFO

  • Thank you, Clarence.

  • And good morning to everyone.

  • Our first-quarter financial results were clearly short of what we expected when we spoke to you in June, largely because same-restaurant sales and guest counts were below our expectations.

  • First-quarter financial results were also adversely affected by two unusual items that together totaled approximately $0.03 EPS.

  • First, there was a legal settlement related to a trademark issue that unfavorably impacted net earnings.

  • And there were additional administrative costs associated with the reduction in our total unit growth that we had not factored in.

  • Looking forward to the second quarter, I want to remind you that, unlike last year, this year the Thanksgiving holiday week, which is a soft week for us since we are closed on Thanksgiving, does not fall into the second quarter.

  • Instead, it falls into our fiscal third quarter.

  • We anticipate that the Thanksgiving holiday shift will benefit second-quarter blended same-restaurant sales by approximately 100 basis points.

  • And adversely affect third-quarter blended same-restaurant sales by a similar amount.

  • Additionally, the support spending actions that we announced today will adversely affect second-quarter earnings, although, as Clarence said, there's a meaningful benefit for this fiscal year as a whole.

  • In the second quarter there will be an approximately $10 million upfront cost, offset by $3 million of savings in the quarter.

  • The balance of the savings, about $22 million, will be spread pretty evenly across the third and fourth quarters.

  • All the costs incurred in the second quarter will be in the selling, general and administrative expense line.

  • As we look ahead to the fiscal year, our outlook for total sales and earnings remains the same as it was when we spoke to you at the beginning of the first quarter.

  • We still anticipate total sales growth in the range of 6% to 8%.

  • And we expect blended same-restaurant sales for our larger brands to be flat, which is at the bottom of the 0% to 2% range we discussed in June.

  • We also still anticipate that diluted net earnings per share will be down 3% to down 5%, with the combined benefit of our support spending reduction and the postponement of some of the provisions of the Affordable Care Act offsetting the softer than expected first-quarter earnings.

  • It's important to note that our blended same-restaurant sales expectations for our three large brands does assume that same-restaurant sales for the casual dining industry will rebound from what we saw in the first quarter, which, using our fiscal calendar, was the lowest quarterly results in over three years.

  • Our outlook assumes that comparable sales for the industry are flat for the balance of the year.

  • Turning more specifically to the first quarter, Darden's total sales from continuing operations increased 6.1% to $2.16 billion.

  • On a blended same-restaurant sales basis, the results for Red Lobster, Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse declined 3.3% in the quarter, with strength at LongHorn Steakhouse offset by weakness at Olive Garden and Red Lobster.

  • And we saw continued same-restaurant sales gains in our Specialty Restaurant Group, with 0.5% same-restaurant sales growth on a blended basis.

  • Food and beverage expenses for the first quarter were approximately 10 basis points higher than last year on a percentage of sales basis.

  • This unfavorability was driven by higher land-based protein and dairy cost.

  • For the first quarter, restaurant labor expenses were approximately 110 basis points higher than last year on a percentage of sales basis, due to wage inflation, reduced productivity, and sales deleverage at Olive Garden and Red Lobster.

  • Restaurant expenses in the quarter were approximately 140 basis points higher than last year on a percentage of sales basis, because of the impact of adding Yard House, since with their restaurant base that's 100% leased, it runs higher restaurant expense as a percentage of sales than our other brands.

  • This represents about 25% of the increase on a year-over-year basis.

  • And we had higher repair and maintenance costs across all brands, as well as the sales deleveraging impact at Olive Garden and Red Lobster.

  • Selling, general and administrative expenses were essentially flat on a percentage of sales basis due to increase in media and media inflation, that was offset broadly by reduced spending.

  • Depreciation expense in the quarter was approximately 35 basis points higher on a percentage of sales basis compared to last year, because of the increase in new units and the remodel programs at our larger brands.

  • Our tax rate this quarter was 20.8%, was about 330 basis points lower than the prior year, driven by increases in available tax credits and our tax planning initiatives.

  • We continue to estimate that our annual effective tax rate will be approximately 20%, which is about 100 basis points lower than last year's effective tax rate.

  • This annual effective tax rate, though, will vary from quarter to quarter.

  • In the first quarter, reported total Company operating profit margins fell by approximately 300 basis points compared to the prior year.

  • Now turning to our commodity cost outlook, we have approximately 84% of our total food spend contracted through the second quarter of 2014.

  • That's our fiscal year.

  • And we have 38% of our total spend contracted through the end of the fiscal year.

  • We have not fully covered our usage through the fiscal year because we believe the premiums for future contracts are simply too great given where we expect prices to be in the cash market as we look forward.

  • Food inflation in the first quarter was approximately 2%, with beef and chicken inflation in the mid single-digit range and dairy inflation in the low double-digit range.

  • Seafood inflation was nominal but we now expect double-digit inflation in the second, third and fourth quarters, primarily related to the shrimp production issues in Asia.

  • The source of the problem has been identified but getting solutions in place is taking a little longer than we expected when we spoke to you in June.

  • For the fiscal year, our current expectation is that our commodity baskets will see a net inflation in the range of 2.5% to 3%, which is about 50 basis points higher than we expected in June.

  • Again, driven primarily by shrimp.

  • Category by category, through the second quarter of fiscal 2014, seafood costs are higher on a year-over-year basis with 100% of our usage covered.

  • Beef costs are higher on a year-over-year basis, with 75% of our usage covered.

  • Poultry costs are higher on a year-over-year basis, with 100% of our usage covered.

  • Wheat costs are higher on a year-over-year basis, with 65% of our usage covered.

  • And dairy costs are higher on a year-over-year basis, with 55% of our usage covered.

  • Our energy costs are expected to be slightly unfavorable on a year-over-year basis.

  • And we have contracted the majority of our natural gas and electricity usage in the deregulated markets in which we operate through the second quarter of fiscal 2014.

  • And now I'll turn it over to Drew to comment on Red Lobster, Olive Garden, and LongHorn Steakhouse.

  • And then Gene will discuss the Specialty Restaurant Group.

  • - Former President & COO

  • Thank you, Brad.

  • And, as Brad just said this morning, I'm going to comment briefly on the fiscal 2014 first-quarter results and key sales dynamics at each of our three large casual dining brands.

  • As a reminder, on our June call we outlined the three strategic priorities that each of our large brands was going to focus on this year to regain same-restaurant traffic momentum, which is our top priority.

  • And those three are, first, delivering our current guest experiences at a competitively superior level more consistently across all our restaurants; improving affordability; and, third, evolving the experiences that each of our brands offers so that they remain responsive to what our guests want beyond affordability.

  • Now, LongHorn has executed effectively against all three of these strategic priorities.

  • And that's reflected in their strong sales performance.

  • Same-restaurant guest counts increased 1.4% during the first quarter, and exceeded our industry estimate by approximately 490 basis points.

  • Same-restaurant sales were 3.2% above prior year, and exceeded our industry estimate by 520 basis points.

  • All measures of operations, execution and guest satisfaction continue to improve at LongHorn, and most notably their two key focus areas of server attentiveness and steaks grilled correctly.

  • In addition, our focus on our lowest-performing restaurants is paying off, where the pace of progress on steaks grilled correctly in the bottom quartile is nearly triple the system average.

  • The first quarter was supported by two six-week promotions.

  • The first promotion -- Steaks that Sizzle -- featured three new affordable steak dishes priced at $11.99.

  • The second promotion -- Fresh Favorites -- did not have a price point, and reinforced our Fresh Never Frozen steak, chicken and fish brand equity by featuring three core menu entrees -- outlaw rib eye, parmesan crusted chicken, and LongHorn salmon.

  • Both of these promotions performed well.

  • In addition, we introduced the first of two new core menu platforms designed to broaden brand relevance and appeal, especially for those guests who are looking for high-quality, on-trend and distinctive dishes.

  • Peak season is our platform that brings seasonal news to the appetizer, drink, dessert and side dish categories.

  • Summer choices featured in the first quarter included a parmesan crusted asparagus appetizer, fire-grilled corn on the cob side dish, and a ranch house cobb salad.

  • In addition, this month we just launched Chef's Showcase, which offers our guests entrees inspired by fine dining at casual dining prices.

  • We're currently offering porcini portobello rib eye and pork osso bucco

  • Despite the strong sales performance, operating profit was below prior year because of our decision to price below elevated levels of beef inflation.

  • Plus, there was one extra week of advertising support during the quarter.

  • For the full year, we expect the weeks of advertising support to be the same as last year.

  • Olive Garden same-restaurant guest counts declined 3.8% during the first quarter.

  • This performance trailed our estimate for the industry by approximately 30 basis points.

  • Same-restaurant sales declined 4% and trailed our industry estimate by approximately 200 basis points.

  • Now, we're certainly disappointed with our performance at Olive Garden during the first quarter, especially given the improving guest count momentum that was achieved during the fourth quarter last year.

  • We have achieved significant progress at Olive Garden on the first strategic priority -- to deliver our guest experiences at a competitively superior level more consistently across all restaurants.

  • In fact, all guest experience measures are well above prior year, especially food taste, value and affordability.

  • And false waits have also been reduced to all-time lows.

  • In addition, we're ahead of schedule with the initial phase of our culinary simplification plan which we believe will enable more consistent guest experience delivery.

  • We also experienced less check erosion during the first quarter this year compared to the fourth quarter last year, especially during July and August.

  • And we expect this trend to continue as we wrap on similar prior-year promotion constructs.

  • Our biggest challenge was obviously guest counts, due to weaker overall industry conditions, and one promotion that did not perform as well as expected in July.

  • More specifically, we exceeded our estimate for industry guest counts during June when we advertised three-course Italian dinner for $12.95.

  • But we trailed our industry estimate during July when we advertised two Italian dinners for $25, which we believe was primarily the result of this promotion not having enough news to wrap on its successful debut at the same time last year.

  • And then we exceeded the industry again during August behind Never Ending Pasta Bowl.

  • We're also continuing to evolve the Olive Garden experience so that it responds to what guests want beyond affordability.

  • During the first quarter, this included the introduction of a new small plates platform called Tastes of Italy, which offers our guests a more flexible and affordable way to enjoy their Olive Garden experience.

  • And shortly we'll be expanding the small plate section.

  • We plan to begin the expansion of our remodel program at Olive Garden for all non-Tuscan farmhouse restaurants during the second half of fiscal 2014.

  • And we're planning to open 15 restaurants in fiscal 2014, a reduction from the 36 restaurants we opened in fiscal 2013.

  • Which will allow our restaurant and leadership teams more time to focus on existing guests, while building a stronger foundation for pursuing new guests and new occasions.

  • Red Lobster same-restaurant guest counts decreased 5.9% in the first quarter.

  • This performance trailed our industry estimate by approximately 220 basis points.

  • Same-restaurant sales declined 5.2% and trailed our industry estimate by approximately 320 basis points.

  • Similar to Olive Garden, we're disappointed with this performance, especially following the improved traffic and sales results at Red Lobster during the fourth quarter last year.

  • Guest satisfaction improved noticeably during the first quarter, especially value, server attentiveness and pace of meal, driven largely by a return to three-table server stations at the end of last year.

  • And, after three consecutive quarters of decline, check increased versus the first quarter last year by 70 basis points, and improved sequentially by 170 basis points compared to the fourth quarter.

  • But our first two promotions, Seaside Mix & Match plus Four Course Seafood Feast, did not perform up to expectations during June and July when we trailed our industry estimate on guest counts.

  • During August we performed in line with our industry estimate for guest counts, supported by endless shrimp, which we increased $1 back to the historical price point of $15.99.

  • Now looking forward, next month we will launch an initiative led by our directors of operations who will spend considerably more of their time in our lower performing restaurants, working with the management teams in a very hands-on manner to help elevate execution to standard, particularly on controllable cost management and especially on labor.

  • And in November, we'll focus on improving culinary execution through some reduction in core menu complexity, and by optimizing our food preparation model to help better position all our restaurant teams for success.

  • We're on pace to complete approximately 100 remodels in fiscal 2014.

  • And we expect to end the year with over 90% of our restaurants completed.

  • And now Gene will talk about the Specialty Restaurant Group.

  • - President and COO

  • Thanks, Drew.

  • The Specialty Restaurant Group delivered solid performance in the first quarter.

  • Total sales for the quarter exceeded $281 million, which is a 72.7% increase from the prior year.

  • This growth was a result of our 65 net new restaurants across the group, which includes 46 Yard House restaurants, and blended same-restaurant sales growth of 0.5%.

  • The Specialty Restaurant Group continues to deliver consistent sales growth, with 14 consecutive quarters of blended same-restaurant sales growth.

  • There was a decline at Seasons, and there are two issues contributing to this sales decline in Q1.

  • First, we made adjustments to the summer menu we believe will benefit us in the long term.

  • However, these changes have resulted in a decline in check average.

  • Second, there are three restaurants in the comparable base that significantly exceeded our expectations when they opened, but their sales have continued to decline well after the typical honeymoon period.

  • However, their current performance is still well above our original expectations.

  • The team is committed to improving the same-restaurant sales trends at Seasons 52 in the short term, while ensuring the brand remains healthy in the long term.

  • In the first quarter, we opened an additional six restaurants over last year.

  • And excluding opening expenses associated with these additional restaurants, the Specialty Restaurant Group grew operating profit year over year.

  • The Specialty Restaurant Group plans to open 22 restaurants for the remainder of fiscal 2014 -- four Capital Grilles, one Bahama Breeze, eight Seasons 52s, three Eddie V's, and six Yard Houses, for a total of 28 for the fiscal year.

  • The Group remains focused on improving operational execution, developing on-trend food and beverage offerings that drive sales, and continuing to evolve the look and feel of our restaurants.

  • We are on track with our phased integration of Yard House.

  • In the first quarter, both the supply chain distribution network and point of sale systems were converted.

  • In the third quarter, Yard House will transition to Darden's benefits and bonus plans.

  • Integration has been and will always be a distraction to restaurant operations.

  • As the integration continues to wind down, we expect to regain same-restaurant sales momentum as the team is able to focus more on their core business.

  • In addition, we're on track to achieve our targeted synergies.

  • As we look to the remainder of fiscal 2014, our fundamentals of the Specialty Restaurant Group remain strong.

  • We're confident in our strategic priorities.

  • And are well positioned to deliver our long-term growth commitments.

  • And now I'll turn it back to Clarence.

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Gene.

  • Now, with the difficult actions we announced today, and the steps we're taking to build same-restaurant traffic and sales momentum at our two large brands, to complement same-restaurant and new restaurant growth at LongHorn Steakhouse and the Specialty Restaurant Group, we continue to believe our near-term earnings targets are reasonable, despite a much more challenging environment than we anticipated back in June.

  • As Brad said, however, that does depend on some improvement from what were unusually weak industry conditions in the first quarter.

  • What's most important, though, from our perspective is sustained success.

  • That is our focus.

  • An intense focus on sustained success is what enabled us to help pioneer our industry.

  • It's what has helped us significantly widen our competitive gap to others in the industry over the past 10 years when it comes to both absolute sales per year and absolute cash flow per year.

  • And it's the driving force as we take the steps we're taking today.

  • Steps that we believe will enable us to maintain a strong leadership position in our industry for years to come.

  • Two final comments.

  • First, the action we announced today is being taken with considerable thought for our colleagues and friends who are moving on to other opportunities.

  • We certainly wish them well.

  • And given the Company's long-standing values, we will support their transitions in a way that reflects their well-appreciated contributions to this organization.

  • Second, we also announced that, after a long and successful career at Darden, that culminated in his serving as our President and Chief Operating Officer for the past nine years, Drew has announced that he's retiring from the Company.

  • And what a nine years it's been.

  • While the past year has had its challenges, Drew has helped build Darden into the clear industry leader.

  • Over those nine years we've increased our restaurant base by 71%, our revenues have grown 79%, our earnings per share have doubled, and our total shareholder return has been more than 110%.

  • But I know that from Drew's perspective, what's most important is that he's helped make Darden a special place to be, one that has consistently strong employee engagement.

  • And strong engagement is what's enabled Darden to be named one of Fortune's 100 best places to work for three consecutive years.

  • And we appreciate what Drew has done to get the Company to this point.

  • With that, we'll take your questions.

  • So let's get started.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

  • - Analyst

  • Matthew DiFrisco at Lazard.

  • Thank you.

  • My question is with respect to just looking at the free cash flow.

  • I might have missed this if you gave some guidance on that or updated the guidance on it.

  • I heard you mention that in the second half of fiscal '14 you're going to resume the Olive Garden remodel, and that there's 100 more remodels of Red Lobster.

  • So can you give us an update as far as how that might affect your free cash flow and your CapEx budget in aggregate?

  • - CFO

  • Yes, Matt.

  • This is Brad.

  • And the guidance we've given before in terms of our total cash flow, in this case CapEx, really incorporates that.

  • We had some testing funds in there for Olive Garden, so they will continue that.

  • And Red Lobster will continue on their plans.

  • There's really no change in our overall cap expectations.

  • We'll bounce a little around here and there but no major change there.

  • - Analyst

  • And then I just had a question with respect to the Specialities division.

  • Gene, I think you mentioned that there was the Yard House, some integration issues.

  • Looking at the comp, was that primarily the reason for the comp going negative?

  • Or are there some regional things maybe specific to its Southern California regional exposure?

  • - President and COO

  • I think the point we're trying to make, Matthew, is that every time we've done an integration we take the focus off of 100% on the guest onto implementing systems.

  • We've experienced that with LongHorn.

  • We experienced it with Eddie V's.

  • And we think we're experiencing that somewhat in Yard House.

  • We wouldn't say there's an issue with integration.

  • We think integration is on track.

  • But the point we're trying to make is that it is a distraction.

  • When you change every point of sale, or POS, terminal inside a restaurant, there's a distraction to every single employee.

  • And until they become unconsciously competent with that, your service standards will drop a little bit.

  • We think we're beyond that at this point in time.

  • And we think that restaurant operations are improving.

  • And we would expect, if the conditions continue to stay the same or improve, we will see positive same-restaurant sales in Yard House in the next six to 12 months.

  • - CFO

  • And, Matt, Brad here.

  • Let me just add a little bit more, on our CapEx guidance we provided before.

  • We're seeing $600 million to $650 million, really working towards the middle of that range.

  • And so the adjustments we've talked about here still keeps us in the middle of that range.

  • Hopefully in the bottom half of that range, but clearly probably more in the middle of the range.

  • Operator

  • Next question.

  • - Analyst

  • Brian Bittner, Oppenheimer & Co.

  • Operator

  • Mr. Bittner, go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • This is Mike Timmis on for Brian.

  • You talked about elevating the performance at your lowest-performing units across your brand.

  • - Analyst

  • Brian, we can't hear you, if you could get closer to the microphone.

  • - Analyst

  • And then related to the spending cuts, can you talk about any opportunities beyond the $50 million annually?

  • It seems like the tip of the iceberg.

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • Kathy, we can't hear.

  • Brian, can you either pick up your handset or requeue?

  • Thanks.

  • Operator

  • We'll go to the next question.

  • - Analyst

  • Michael Kelter, Goldman Sachs.

  • On the $50 million of cost cuts, you mentioned a reduction of 85 support positions.

  • But you also in the release mentioned beyond the workforce reductions there were program spending cuts.

  • To what were you referring when you said program spending cuts?

  • And then, could you help with the $50 million number overall?

  • Are you confident that there's not more you can do, that that's all you can cut at the organization level?

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, I would say on the program side, we are talking about a number of different initiatives across several functions that we think are value-added initiatives but lower priority than some of the other things that we need to focus on.

  • And so that spans marketing and it also includes some of the things that we've been doing on the supply chain side.

  • So it touches a lot of different places but it adds up to a meaningful part of that total, that $50 million.

  • I would say that with the cuts that we made, we're pretty comfortable that $50 million on an ongoing basis is a reduction.

  • There is the possibility it could be somewhat higher than that.

  • But that's the number we're comfortable with right now.

  • And with that number we still are able to make the investments that we need to make, beyond affordability.

  • And so we are investing in a number of things that we think we need to invest in to stay relevant to our guests as their lifestyles change.

  • So we're continuing to invest in making our technology platform more robust, for example, so we can better engage with our customers from a digital perspective.

  • It also sets up, we think, our opportunity to do much more segmented, targeted, one-on-one marketing with our customers.

  • And ultimately, hopefully that will allow us to scale back our broadcast media spend.

  • - Analyst

  • And then, separately, your free cash flow this quarter post dividend payment was firmly negative.

  • Was there anything in particular about the quarter?

  • Or is this a dynamic we're going to have to expect until the business turns around?

  • And given that dynamic doesn't it make sense to cut CapEx further until the businesses stabilizes?

  • - CFO

  • Michael, Brad here.

  • There is some seasonality to our cash flow, particularly as we look out across the year and the features that we may run in the different brands during the time.

  • So it is down, principally driven by the earnings that we reported.

  • But in terms of our annual expectations with the guidance we've given, we still feel comfortable with that range.

  • To the tune of CapEx and opportunities there, we continue to look at those.

  • We're still saying approximately 80 net new restaurants this year.

  • That's still a pretty good number.

  • If anything, we may be one or two shy of that versus one or two over that.

  • But we continue to evaluate those opportunities as we go through the year.

  • But we don't see, from what we're looking at, any need to make more significant adjustments other than the adjustment that Clarence talked about earlier in terms of our support cost.

  • Operator

  • Next question.

  • - Analyst

  • David Tarantino, Robert W. Baird.

  • Hi, good morning.

  • And, Drew, best of luck as you move towards retirement.

  • And, Gene, congratulations on your promotion.

  • My question is for Gene.

  • I was just wondering if you could share some initial thoughts on any changes that you might make in the strategic direction, or any opportunities that you see that you might implement as you move into leading the entire Darden enterprise.

  • - President and COO

  • Good morning, David.

  • I think that what we've outlined as the two issues are the two issues that need to be addressed.

  • We have to address affordability.

  • We also have to address the need of the consumer who can afford to spend more.

  • We need to make sure that we continue to improve that part of what we deliver to each and every guest.

  • As far as saying anything more at this point in time I think would be irresponsible.

  • What they say, prescription without diagnosis is malpractice.

  • And I really would like to have some time to get to talk to the team in great detail, learn a little bit more about each of the businesses.

  • The one thing I would say is that through my lens I start from an operational perspective and I hope to bring a little bit more focus operationally to the businesses.

  • That's just my roots.

  • That's where I come from.

  • At this point that's really all I want to say.

  • I'll probably have more comments when we get together in December.

  • - Analyst

  • Great.

  • That's helpful.

  • Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Next question.

  • - Analyst

  • Jason West, Deutsche Bank.

  • Just want to talk about some of the comments around the industry and the sales volatility.

  • And you guys said some of the changes that you're making at Olive Garden and Red Lobster are somewhat exacerbating the volatility, which we certainly saw from the monthly trends.

  • Just wondering if you could talk more about what's driving that volatility, and then just the bigger picture of driving positive comps that you need in the rest of the year to get to the guidance.

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, I would say, as we look at the industry, it was a surprisingly weak summer, given the macro numbers, where we didn't see dramatic change in the economic macro numbers.

  • Still anemic growth but, nevertheless, growth.

  • Same thing at the beginning of the year from a macro perspective.

  • But if you look back to the beginning of this calendar year, we've seen some more pronounced volatility than we've been seeing before.

  • So, some pretty big downward spikes -- February comes to mind -- followed by some reasonably big up spikes.

  • And then we saw the down spike this summer.

  • So, as this sluggishness persists, we're getting amplified volatility.

  • And hard to say why.

  • There's been a lot of speculation that consumers have deferred some big ticket expenditures on auto, on appliances, some other things.

  • And as they are forced six, seven years into this to replace those with relatively flat budgets, they've got to do some more disciplined budgeting.

  • And dining out is one of the things that may be paying a price for that.

  • We suspect there's some truth to that.

  • And so, all of that says that for a lot of consumers, we're on the right track in really trying to make sure that we provide them with the affordability that they need, because they need affordability in order to dine out.

  • We get a little bit more volatility because we're in the middle of change.

  • We were transitioning and putting more affordability on the core menu than we've had in the past.

  • Some of those things that we change to, whether they're promotional or on the core menu, work better than others.

  • And so that's, I think, explaining our incremental volatility to the industry.

  • - Analyst

  • Just the comments on guidance implies comps will turn positive here over the balance of the year.

  • Do you expect to see that in the near term?

  • Or what gives you confidence that you're going to outperform the industry with a positive comp the next three quarters?

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • I would say a couple of things about the future.

  • From an industry perspective, this first quarter was really an outlier in terms of the spike down.

  • And so we do hope and expect that that's the case, and that we would see it, as I think Brad said, bounce back to something that looks a little more flat for the balance of the year.

  • That would still mean for our fiscal year the industry's slightly down.

  • And that's 1 point, 1.5 points worse than we thought when the year started because we thought that this fiscal year would look a lot like last fiscal year from an industry perspective.

  • In terms of our brands, really, beginning next quarter, and so first quarter last year we were pretty much on top of the industry on an overall basis.

  • Red Lobster a little bit behind it, Olive Garden right on top of it but a little bit ahead, and LongHorn well ahead.

  • But beginning in the second quarter last year, we started to lag more dramatically -- the second and third quarter.

  • And then we responded to that with a more intensive focus on affordability.

  • So from a year over year perspective, we've got softer comps than the industry, and that drives some of our expectation.

  • Operator

  • Our next question.

  • - Analyst

  • John Glass, Morgan Stanley.

  • First, if I could just ask about the guidance overall.

  • As I understand it, you've maintained your guidance for the year.

  • I think it's fair to say you missed your first-quarter expectations but, correct me if this was in line maybe with yours even though it was out of line with ours.

  • You talked about 50 basis points more food cost pressure.

  • That's like another $45 million.

  • And now your comp guidance at the very low end of your range.

  • And your cutting, your cost cutting, I think, is just $15 million net.

  • How do you square that with getting to your same old guidance?

  • Is there some offset?

  • And in answering that could you address the compensation expense?

  • I think it was $0.35 you talked about.

  • Is that now being adjusted down because of the performance in the first quarter?

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • I'll start and then hand it over to Brad.

  • But clearly, your expectations for first quarter were higher than ours.

  • And so that means that your expectations for the balance of the year were lower than ours, because you were where we were for the entire year.

  • And so there is some of that going on.

  • We also, on the cost side, before the steps that we were taking, as we outlined annual guidance, were pretty conservative.

  • So we had some places where we thought there was some opportunity to ratchet back spending beyond what we announced today.

  • That was in our guidance and we're taking advantage of those opportunities.

  • - CFO

  • I think broadly a couple unique items is the Affordable Care Act.

  • We anticipate about $0.06 of implementation cost of that as we began the year.

  • It's probably going to be 50% of that cost, maybe a smidgen less, because there were some parts that deferred.

  • But not all of it, and so we have some costs.

  • But that's a little bit of a benefit to our numbers.

  • I think, more broadly, is, as you step back and look at this, if you look at the margin contraction on a year over year basis, it was really in the second quarter of our prior fiscal year when we got a little bit more aggressive on our promotional pricing and some of that.

  • So there was meaningful margin compression last fiscal year for the second, third and fourth quarter.

  • We'll now be wrapping on that this year so we don't have as much of that margin contraction.

  • That kind of gets to Clarence's earlier points about the quarterly spread that you had.

  • And then also you saw some areas on a year over year basis, LongHorn had a feature that wasn't price pointed.

  • You saw Red Lobster this year in the shrimp.

  • Shrimp costs are up.

  • But they priced that at $1 higher than the prior year.

  • And even in August, vis-a-vis the industry, consumers recognize that still is a good value.

  • So there's those type of adjustments that we have planned for the remainder of the year.

  • And we won't go into those details at this point.

  • But those are the factors that really help us as we work through the math to say what's a good expectation for our sales and our earnings performance.

  • There's a little less sales so we're going to get a little bit better through some of the cost initiatives that we talked about to improve the margins from where they were before, to stay in that same earnings range.

  • - Analyst

  • And if I could follow up, first, if you could just maybe address if the $0.35 compensation piece was adjusted or not.

  • And then just wrap this into my second question, as well, which is the volatility you're seeing in sales, it surprises me in that it's up and down versus the industry.

  • I understand you can't control the industry trends.

  • Why do you think that volatility versus the industry exists?

  • Is it because your own promotions continue to maybe not be as consistent?

  • In other words, it's an internal issue.

  • Or are you continually being surprised by what the competition's coming out with and so you're reacting more, or you're being hurt by those external forces -- an individual competitor is moving the efficacy of one of your promotions around?

  • Which do you think it is?

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • I think as we look at same-restaurant sales, obviously marginal guests are critical.

  • So, every incremental guest.

  • And a lot of those incremental guests are driven by price and affordability.

  • Our brands are at the top of the range when you look at the check average continuum in casual dining.

  • And so when you get sentiment swings that affect consumer spending, and consumers get more cautious, we're going to feel that a little bit more, regardless of what else is going on.

  • And that's just a reality.

  • But that same reality is why our operating cash flows are as high as they are.

  • - CFO

  • And, John -- Brad here -- on the comp part of your question, yes, we were below our expectations for the quarter.

  • We talked about the approximately $0.35 year over year compensation headwinds.

  • It's not that amount now.

  • We're not going to detail how much, but it is less.

  • But we built our expectations, which is what that comp expense has been built around, this quarter was not as strong as broadly the market was looking at that.

  • So it was clearly a number of pennies that we had in the first quarter but there's still a fair amount of that ahead of us in quarters 2 through 4.

  • Operator

  • The next question.

  • - Analyst

  • Joe Buckley, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

  • Good morning, thank you.

  • Drew and Gene, my best wishes and congratulations, as well.

  • I have a question based on Drew's departure.

  • Dave Pickens was promoted in July to a position that sounded like he may have been in line to succeed Drew.

  • And, of course, that was not the case.

  • So, can you talk a little about that, give us some perspective on Dave's role, and the drivers of the decision to move Gene over into the COO role?

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • That was not the intent when we made the move with Dave.

  • We had a position that we feel is important, which is to have someone lead some important operations initiatives that cut across all the brands, beyond what needs to get done day-to-day within each brand to support the business.

  • And so we've got things, for example, like the Affordable Care Act roll-out that cut across all the brands, that requires senior leadership to really get developed and implemented appropriately.

  • And so Dave is working on that.

  • He's working on some other cross-brand operations initiatives that we don't want to talk about for competitive reasons.

  • That's an important role.

  • And he'll continue to do that in support of Gene.

  • I think as we looked at where to go when Drew announced his decision, we've got a lot of talented people.

  • Gene's been in the restaurant business for 30 years.

  • And he has seen a lot of different kinds of brands -- mass market brands, specialty brands.

  • He knows that broad range of customers.

  • He has a terrific intuitive feel for why people dine out, what they want out of restaurants, whether that restaurant's a diner or fine dining restaurant.

  • That intuitive feel, along with all the other things he's learned over time, are important as we talk about refining the guest experiences that we provide, to respond to guest needs that are pretty dynamic.

  • And so that operational background's very important.

  • And Gene's also served as Chief Operating Officer of an enterprise.

  • Certainly not as big as Darden, but, still, when you look at the restaurant business, a relatively large enterprise.

  • And that was RARE, which was $1 billion-plus in annualized revenues when we acquired it in 2007.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • And then a question on the CapEx.

  • Brad, you said you would hope to be around the mid point of the $600 million, $650 million range.

  • Given the industry weakness, are you making adjustments at this point to fiscal '15?

  • What are your thoughts in terms of CapEx trends in fiscal '15?

  • - CFO

  • Joe, we continue to look at that.

  • Like I said earlier, it's more likely to drift down than up, for sure.

  • We continue to look at those opportunities.

  • And we'll adjust those as we look into next fiscal year because, particularly the new unit component of that investment, which is the biggest part of that, the biggest single part, those are long lead decisions, 12 to 18 months.

  • Further dramatic revisions in the current year, not likely.

  • We'll continue as we move through this year to make adjustments that we see appropriate as we look at fiscal '15.

  • But more likely to be down, with the exception of the SRG brand.

  • Strong business model, strong brands performing well, we'll continue to invest strongly there.

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • And I would just add, Joe, when we talked a while ago, that as we look at '15 we're going to be pretty cautious, pretty focused on business trends as we think about Olive Garden.

  • We're down with 15.

  • And so we have the ability for sure to be flexible downward there.

  • That's something that we preserved.

  • And then even as we look at the brands that Brad mentioned that are growing more robustly, we're pretty focused on making sure that we don't get ahead of our talent pipeline.

  • And so this year Gene talked about eight restaurants at Seasons.

  • That number's certainly not going to go up.

  • And to the extent that it changes, it may go down slightly to make sure we don't get ahead of ourselves from a talent pipeline perspective.

  • Operator

  • Next question.

  • - Analyst

  • Jeff Bernstein, Barclays.

  • Thank you.

  • Two questions.

  • Just, first, a follow-up from a comp perspective.

  • Things like you guys were happy with the most recent August trend, perhaps running ahead of the industry.

  • But, broadly, with that volatility increasing, and it being accentuated at your brands, just wondering whether you see that as a driver of maybe increased promotional intensity?

  • Can you size up what you're seeing in terms of the industry as they're dealing with this volatility?

  • And perhaps how you'd like to position yourself in terms of your response.

  • And, obviously, you're trying to balance promotions versus long-term brand building.

  • But just trying to get your sense for how the industry's dealing with this volatility.

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • I would say, Jeff, too early to tell.

  • And so August was certainly better than July, which was really a tough month, down roughly 4% in the industry.

  • But August was still a tough month, down about 1.7%, I think that's about right.

  • A little too early to tell the industry response at this point.

  • - Analyst

  • But just more broadly you talked about calendar '13 being volatile in February and July.

  • I'm just wondering what you're seeing across the industry as everyone's battling with this consumer sentiment volatility being so enhanced.

  • What are you seeing in terms of the competitive landscape?

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • I think everyone's focused on their spending and their support platforms, and making sure that they've got flexibility there.

  • And so I don't think we're alone in that.

  • Other people have more structural opportunities on the efficiency side than we might have in some areas that we've already addressed.

  • Supply chain, for example.

  • And some of the in-restaurant systems.

  • But the moves that we announced today really are enabled by some steps that we've taken the last couple of years.

  • So, in marketing, for example, we've separated responsibility for current periods.

  • So the tactics from responsibility for multi-year evolution, that allows us to be more efficient from a support staffing perspective actually in marketing, in operations.

  • We've got a new multi-unit leadership level that we feel enables us to have somewhat wider spans of control at the old leadership levels.

  • On the support side, the technology work that we're doing further automates not just supply chain but a lot of the data collection, data mining, operational and financial reporting.

  • And that allows for some efficiency from a personnel perspective, as well.

  • Operator

  • Next question.

  • - Analyst

  • Will Slabaugh, Stephens.

  • Thanks, guys.

  • Could you help us figure out what's going on relative to your intent of the lower entry price point promotions?

  • And then how you think those are being perceived by the guest and how that's mixing in the check.

  • I'm just trying to get at the lack of traffic impact there from those promotions.

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • I'm sorry, I didn't hear the very last part of your question.

  • - Analyst

  • Yes, I'm just saying I'm trying to get to the lack of traffic impact from those lower price point promotions.

  • - Former President & COO

  • Yes, I think the biggest question there is making frameworks that we've got -- like two for 25, or a three-course meal -- even more distinctive by each brand.

  • There's been a couple questions about do we need to increase our intensity promotionally.

  • We don't think we do.

  • We dialed that up last year already.

  • And we'll be wrapping on that, as I think Brad mentioned earlier, over the next three quarters.

  • So we don't think we need to dial it up.

  • We think that we need to refine it in a way that does a better job of bringing in the incremental guest, and not just trading existing guest to a somewhat lower-priced dish.

  • Which is what happened with Red Lobster, in particular, in June.

  • And you can see the way it's working at LongHorn, and that's ultimately what we want to move towards.

  • - CFO

  • Well, Brad.

  • I think the only thing I'd add to Drew's comment is we talked more about same-restaurant sales.

  • We also have additional insight on the traffic.

  • Our three large brands have been above the industry on traffic.

  • They were this most recent quarter as well as the prior quarter.

  • So, building the traffic and keeping our brands in front of the consumers during this time, we're making good progress there.

  • Obviously we want to build the check, as well, but we can be patient and build the business for the longer term more so than just the particular quarter that we're in.

  • - Analyst

  • Got you.

  • And as a quick follow-up there, it sounds like your plan for the year assumes some improvement in the restaurant macro environment.

  • And correct me if I'm wrong there.

  • But could you talk about, just assuming that things don't improve, what that free cash flow generation outlook might be, and what you would start to look to, to either cut CapEx or cetera, to preserve that dividend?

  • - CFO

  • Yes.

  • We have said on an annual basis 1 point of same-restaurant sales for us is in the neighborhood of $0.15 EPS.

  • And so you can work that back into the cash flow.

  • But even as you see a little bit in the first quarter, a company of our size, a large balance sheet that we have, there are other opportunities that we're working on to enhance our cash flow opportunities.

  • Some of those are the timing of certain events.

  • We had some of those going against us in the first quarter around certain payments and things like that.

  • So, we can continue to manage through those throughout the year to help manage the overall operating cash flow that we have.

  • So there's still opportunities there.

  • We've talked about some CapEx continuing to evaluate to make adjustments there.

  • But, by and large, when we look at our annual projection, we do need the industry to improve some, back to that flattish level, if you will, for our fiscal year, is part of our expectation.

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • For cash flow perspective, though, we have talked about what that point of comps is worth.

  • And it's roughly $30 million on what is roughly a $1 billion annual operating cash.

  • And so it's not as dramatic a move at the operating cash level as it is at the reported earnings level.

  • Operator

  • Our last question.

  • - Analyst

  • Andy Barish, Jefferies.

  • Two quick ones.

  • On the promotional stuff, with the price points relatively similar, how are you really getting at affordability?

  • Is it through electronic digital stuff that we're not necessarily seeing on TV?

  • Can you address that?

  • And then just as a follow-up, on operating margin guidance, I think it was down 60 to 80 bps.

  • Is that essentially the same?

  • And with the 2Q so skinny it implies almost a flattish back-half operating margin.

  • Is that what you're thinking still?

  • - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, I would start on the first one, and I'll hand it off to Drew.

  • But it's inside that price point -- what's the quality of the particular product that you're offering.

  • So consumers are very savvy.

  • To the extent we have the same price but we have a better product, then that's going to put us in a better situation from an affordability perspective.

  • - Former President & COO

  • That's largely what I meant by saying we've elevated our promotional intensity.

  • The price points are going to vary by brand but we want to make sure that what we're offering within those constructs is distinctive and differentiated and compelling and high quality.

  • That's ultimately the way we're going to win with those.

  • - CFO

  • Andy, Brad here.

  • On the margins, thanks for asking that.

  • We are looking for roughly the same margin impact that we talked about, that 60 basis points, give or take a little bit.

  • And it may be a little hard to see when you look at the first quarter.

  • I'll go back to a comment I made earlier, that our promotional approach that we had really took hold last year in our second fiscal quarter.

  • And so the margin contraction that you see in the first quarter is not what you should be projecting for the remainder of the year.

  • Your comment on doing the quick math is probably about right.

  • The remainder of the year may vary some by quarter but roughly flat, is what we're looking at because we're wrapping on a very similar comparison last year in our strategies.

  • - VP IR

  • We'd like to thank everybody for joining us on the call this morning.

  • We recognize there's still some of you in the queue who had questions.

  • We would certainly be happy to answer those if you want to give us a call here in Orlando.

  • Thank you very much for joining us and we'll speak to you in three months.

  • Operator

  • Thank you for joining today's call.

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