Diamondrock Hospitality Co (DRH) 2011 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the fourth-quarter 2011 DiamondRock Hospitality earnings conference call. My name is Karissa and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will be facilitating a question and answer session towards the end of today's conference. (Operator Instructions).

  • As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

  • I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's conference, Mr. Mark Brugger, CEO. Please proceed.

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • Thanks, Karissa. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to DiamondRock's fourth-quarter and full-year 2011 earnings conference call. Today I am joined by John Williams, our President and Chief Operating Officer; as well as Sean Mahoney, our Chief Financial Officer.

  • As usual, before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under Federal Securities laws. They may not be updated in the future. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings. Moreover, as we discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, it may be helpful to review the reconciliation to GAAP in our earnings press release.

  • DiamondRock achieved great success in 2011. We executed on our strategic objectives, and, as a result, DiamondRock continues to be a leading lodging REIT with an exceptionally strong balance sheet and a premium portfolio of high-quality hotels in top growth markets.

  • Overall, we hold firm to our conviction that lodging fundamentals are in the early stages of a recovery that will benefit the entire industry. However, we are particularly bullish on DiamondRock for several specific reasons. First, there's a lot of upside in our existing portfolio. To put our upside in perspective, if our portfolio only reaches prior peak levels of 2007, and we project much greater growth, that would mean that we will see $80 million in additional hotel EBITDA growth from last year's results, equivalent to 48% growth over 2011.

  • Importantly, since our portfolio is forecasted to exceed prior peak occupancy in 2012, much of our future growth is coming from highly profitable increases in room rates.

  • Second, after the disposition of the three-pack of hotels under contract to Inland, which we expect to close very soon, the Company will have completed over $1 billion of transformational hotel transactions since early 2010. After these transactions, the portfolio quality is even higher, with 95% of our hotel profits coming from hotels located in gateway cities and destination resort locations. By all accounts, these urban and resort markets will outperform the rest of the lodging industry over the next decade.

  • We expect our portfolio (inaudible) in New York City, Chicago, and Boston to lead the way for the Company going forward.

  • Third, our $45 million repositioning effort at Frenchman's Reef Resort is substantially complete. We expect to exceed our original 2012 pro forma underwriting. Our 2012 budget for Frenchman's Reef over $14 million in EBITDA growth from 2011. And the hotel's future funnel of booking continues to indicate that the coming years will be very successful.

  • Fourth, we signed a term sheet with Marriott to convert one of our largest hotels, the Lexington Hotel in midtown Manhattan, from a Radisson to a member of the Marriott Autograph Collection. In connection with this rebranding effort, we plan to invest $30 million of incremental capital to upgrade the hotel. We anticipate significant rate potential arising out of this repositioning.

  • And, finally, with the completion of the sale to Inland and our Lexington Hotel financing, we will continue to maintain one of the most enviable balance sheets among the lodging REIT peers, with 2012 debt-to-EBITDA of just over four times, an undrawn corporate revolver, no corporate debt, and significant cash. Our balance sheet strength gives us ample dry powder to be opportunistic in the acquisition market.

  • Turning to operating results, today we are pleased to report strong results for the fourth-quarter and full-year 2011 that continue to evidence of substantial recovery in lodging fundamentals. For the full year, pro forma RevPAR increased 6.3% and adjusted EBITDA was $162.1 million, which resulted in adjusted FFO per share of $0.62. The results would have been even higher except for the impact of two one-time items -- the $10 million in total renovation disruption at our Caribbean resort, and we recorded an unexpected write-off of approximately $1 million in receivables related to the American Airlines bankruptcy.

  • We saw exceptional performance from a number of our hotels in 2011. Particularly noteworthy, we experienced double-digit RevPAR growth at the Chicago Conrad, the Sonoma Renaissance, the Atlanta Alpharetta Marriott, and the Chicago Oak Brook Hills Marriott.

  • Additionally, the Hilton Minneapolis, a 2010 acquisition, turned in a RevPAR gain of almost 9%. Results were more challenged at the Griffin Gate Marriott due to a difficult comp, and the Austin Renaissance. Both of these hotels are included in the three-pack sales transaction which is expected to close in short order.

  • We wanted to quickly touch on the much-publicized late snowfall out West and its impact on our Vail resort. We are happy to report that the snowfall has been considerably better over the last seven weeks. In addition, one of our asset management initiatives last year was to implement a 45-day cancellation policy at the hotel. This policy allowed us to preserve our December reservations and report a 6% RevPAR increase for December at our Vail resort.

  • We'd also like to take this opportunity to update you on some particular events at the Company. First, the Lexington Hotel in New York City -- as John will discuss in more detail, we are planning to rebrand the Lexington Hotel and invest capital to allow this asset to reach its full potential. While the hotel already runs over 90% occupancy, we're convinced that implementing a strategy of rebranding the hotel will result in significant rate upside.

  • We are also close to finalizing a $170 million loan on this hotel at an attractive rate. This loan allows us to completely pay off our corporate revolver and further positions us to be opportunistic on acquisitions.

  • Second, an update on the Allerton Chicago Hotel. We hold the senior note on the Allerton Hotel on Michigan Avenue in Chicago. As you may recall, we took advantage of a distressed debt situation and purchased the note for approximately $60 million or the equivalent of only $135,000 per key, which is a substantial discount to the face value of the note. The note -- the hotel is in bankruptcy, and we feel good about our cost basis and secured position. We expect resolution on this matter later this year, either by obtaining ownership of the hotel or receiving a valuable new note. We will keep you advised as this one plays out.

  • Lastly, an update on the Chicago Conrad Hotel. The Conrad Hotel had a great 2011 and looks like it will have another terrific year in 2012. However, during the downturn in 2010, Hilton failed its performance test. We used this as an opportunity to negotiate a win-win deal with Hilton that gave us a brand-new, multi-year performance guarantee, which paid us $750,000 last year and is projected to pay us $800,000 this year. As John will discuss, we are also investing $3.5 million in valuable ROI projects at this hotel.

  • As I mentioned earlier, we remain optimistic about lodging fundamentals. With supply growth at less than half of its historic average, and occupancy levels already up, the industry has a terrific backdrop for pricing power as demand continues to improve. Our outlook for upper upscale hotels in North America is for 2012 RevPAR growth in the range of 4% to 6%. This outlook is based on our evaluation of key indicators for demand, such as corporate profit growth, corporate investment, employment trends, and leisure spending trends.

  • We do expect certain markets to outperform in 2012. Among the markets in which we are concentrated, Boston is likely to be the strongest. And the operator budget is showing double-digit RevPAR growth for our Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.

  • Chicago also should enjoy a good year, with a very strong convention calendar. Although we do expect our Chicago Marriott Downtown to experience some negative, but isolated, impact from the G8 Summit in May.

  • Salt Lake City will be another top-performing market, with a solid convention calendar and the grand opening next month of the exciting $1 billion City Creek mixed-use project, which is adjacent to our hotel. We expect our Salt Lake City Marriott to achieve close to double-digit RevPAR growth in 2012.

  • New York City, our most important market, has started off strong with double-digit RevPAR growth in January. We are budgeting 5% to 7% RevPAR increases in 2012 for our four hotels in that market.

  • Other strong markets for us include Charleston and Sonoma, a prime beneficiary of the resurgence in the San Francisco market.

  • We would also note that we expect more modest growth at the Hilton Minneapolis, due to a tough convention calendar comp; Bethesda Suites, from a soft year in DC; and at the Vail Marriott, as a result of the late snowfall.

  • Additionally, 2012 RevPAR guidance would be 75 basis points higher and adjusted EBITDA would be higher by $3 million, but for the expected displacement from the facade project at the Worthington Renaissance in the impact of the G8 Summit on the Chicago Marriott Downtown.

  • Real estate taxes are also expected to be up $4 million in 2012. Overall, I'm pleased to report that 2012 is off to a very strong start. In reviewing our January operating results for the portfolio, excluding non-comp Frenchman's, we achieved impressive RevPAR growth of 10%. We experienced particularly outstanding results from our hotels in New York City, Chicago, and Sonoma. These results reaffirm our conviction that the Company's portfolio is well-positioned for growth.

  • Now let's turn to 2012 guidance. I'd like to emphasize the disclosure in our press release, that our 2012 RevPAR guidance includes our hotels that were owned since January 1, 2011, with the exception of Frenchman's Reef and the three hotels classified as held-for-sale.

  • In addition, the adjusted EBITDA and adjusted FFO guidance includes the pre-sale operations from the three hotels.

  • Finally, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted FFO guidance excludes cash interest payments and legal fees related to the Allerton Hotel, which is a change from 2011, and may be different than the way you want to model it for 2012.

  • Accordingly, the Company expects the following full year 2012 results -- RevPAR growth of 4% to 6%; adjusted EBITDA of $167 million to $176 million; adjusted FFO per share of $0.68 to $0.72.

  • For the first quarter of 2012, we expect RevPAR growth of 5.5% to 7%; adjusted EBITDA of $18 million to $21 million; and adjusted FFO per share of $0.06 to $0.08.

  • Before turning the call over to John to discuss operating results in more detail, I did want to comment on dividends. In 2007, DiamondRock shareholders were paid over $54 million in cash dividends. We believe that dividends are an important part of the investment thesis of being a REIT. To us, paying a meaningful dividend generally indicates prudent balance sheet management and a commitment to shareholder returns.

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to John.

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. As Mark mentioned, the lodging industry in 2011 enjoyed continued improvement in operating trends. We believe that we are set up for a sustained recovery and an extended lodging upturn because of the absence of new supply, the indications of continued recovery in the US economy, and increasing international travel activity.

  • The fourth quarter continued the positive trends of the year, and even showed improvement in areas that had previously lagged, like banquet sales. In describing our results, and to provide our investors with the clearest report on how our portfolio actually performed, I will exclude the three hotels held for sale in Frenchman's Reef, which had inventory out of service for several months from the renovation.

  • In the fourth quarter, RevPAR for the DiamondRock portfolio increased 6.2%, driven by equal contributions from increases in rate and volume. Fourth-quarter food and beverage revenue was up 7.1% and included a very encouraging 7.9% increase in high profit margin banquet and AV. Our aggressive initiatives on food cost and menu refinements, along with the higher banquet sales, enabled food and beverage margins to increase 64 basis points in the quarter. Cost controls remain a focus of management, and house profit margin increased 113 basis points compared to Q4 2010.

  • Demand was good in the fourth quarter with all segments showing growth, more evidence of continued demand recovery. Group revenue in the quarter was up 7.6%; business transient was up 1.8%; and leisure and other discount revenue was up 5.5%; and contract and other revenue was up 40%.

  • The room segmentation for the portfolio by revenue in Q4 was 32% group; 33% business transient; 29% leisure; and 6% contract and other, reflecting the very balanced revenue mix of our portfolio.

  • We were encouraged by productivity gains and wage controls. Overall productivity for the portfolio was good, with man-hours per occupied room down slightly, and sales per man-hour up 4% in the quarter. Overall for the quarter, salaries and wages were up 2.1% and benefits were up 2.7%, a very good result in light of the higher volumes of both rooms and food and beverage at the hotels. Travel agent commissions and credit card fees continue to negatively impact costs and trend higher, at approximately 15% and 5%, respectively.

  • Support costs in the quarter were well-controlled, and were up only a total of 3.7%. In support costs, sales and marketing and G&A costs were higher, partially from increased occupancy, up 5.8% and 4.7% respectively. These costs were partially offset by modest increases in repairs and maintenance, up 1.4%; and utilities, which were lower by about 3%, reflecting the $4 million we have invested in energy savings initiatives across the portfolio, as well as energy contracts we've negotiated in the past year.

  • Our most recent group booking pace continues to be strong. Including Frenchman's Reef, 2012 revenue pace is up a robust 10.5% at the end of period one.

  • Some other favorable trends for the DiamondRock portfolio -- in 2011, portfolio pro forma occupancy reached within 70 basis points of its prior peak. We expect to surpass the prior peak level of occupancy in 2012, and gain additional pricing power. Consequently, future revenue growth should come primarily from rate, resulting in greater flow-through.

  • 2011 group revenue was up about 5% for the full year, mostly in rate. Short-term bookings are down in volume, but up in rate. Together with the increasing pace, this is a clear indication that booking windows are lengthening. Therefore, with less inventory to sell, given the near-peak occupancy and lengthening booking windows, segmentation strategy will be better and group pricing should continue to strengthen.

  • Even more telling about our ability to improve profits through mix shift -- in 2011, business transient room nights and average rate were both approximately 13% below prior peak levels of 2007. Leisure and discount room nights are 20% above prior peak, and leisure average rate is 12% below prior peak. Therefore, the opportunity to shift share and recover rate in both segments is very clear.

  • Shifting business within the BT segment was already taking place in 2011, as the trend of replacing lower-rated special corporate business with premium-rated business was present for the full year, and accelerated in Q4.

  • In summary, the fourth quarter was a very good quarter for the Company, with revenue costs and both transient and group pace continuing to trend well, and with food and beverage margins led by increased banquet sales improving at an accelerating rate. We believe that these trends will continue as the recovery continues. And if supply remains muted, we'll allow our portfolio to surpass prior peak revenue and profit levels in the next couple of years.

  • Turning to asset management, our asset management efforts on both capital projects and operational initiatives have been extensive. First, the Frenchman's Reef Resort, after substantially completing the $45 million renovation, is open and has been very well-received by both leisure travelers and group meeting planners. We're excited that year-to-date 2012, it has outperformed its aggressive budget and has raised its forecast for the quarter.

  • The resort looks fantastic, and the future is bright. Unfortunately, the recent past was more choppy, as the Q4 results were dramatically impacted by unexpected one-time events occurring at the end of the renovation. In the fourth quarter, challenges in the turnover of rooms from the contractor created significant revenue displacement. Additionally, wholesalers were more cautious than we anticipated about booking the hotel before they could see the finished product, which led to a slower ramp in the fall.

  • Finally, we had some bad luck with a break in the intake pipe that provides water for the chillers that run the property's air conditioning system. This led to significant displacement of several hundred room nights.

  • These three unforeseen problems caused a $4 million miss to the Q4 budget. Total 2011 renovation disruption came in at $10 million. As I've said, the future looks great for the resort. At this point, the resort is fully operational. And we have hosted familiarization tours with most of the high-producing wholesalers and group meeting planners, all of whom are very enthusiastic about the renovation. The hotel guest scores are the highest in the recent history of the resort, and customer comments are dramatically better. So we are very optimistic that this flagship Marriott resort will perform well from this point forward.

  • Secondly, we've determined that we will rebrand the Lexington Hotel in midtown Manhattan to an Autograph Collection hotel, which will occur after a $30 million upgrade is completed in 2013. We believe that the Autograph affiliation will give us the power of the Marriott reservation and marketing system, while allowing the hotel to continue to capitalize on the significant brand equity of the Lexington name and provide a unique, independent hotel guest experience.

  • Third, as we mentioned last quarter, we're in the design phases of a re-concepting and significant meetings space addition at the Conrad Hotel in Chicago. The plan will include a dramatic activation of the lobby and food and beverage outlets on the fifth floor, including upgrading the popular outdoor terrace. We'll add over 4000 square feet of meeting space by relocating the non-revenue-producing administrative offices. We will gain an additional suite by splitting the Presidential Suite into two deluxe suites, both with outdoor terraces. We anticipate the project will cost approximately $3.5 million, and will provide a very substantial return on investment.

  • As we've mentioned, we've restructured our financial relationship with Hilton, which will provide a significantly better NOI at the hotel.

  • Overall, our asset managers are working tirelessly with our operators to maximize results in our properties. We're seeing results from the adjustments we and Marriott made to Marriott's new sales organization, as it relates to DiamondRock's portfolio, with lead generation and closing ratios both up substantially.

  • Turning to capital recycling, the dispositions of the hotels Mark mentioned will improve our portfolio quality, profit, and growth metrics. The proceeds from the sales and the reduction in mortgage debt will improve our capital structure and substantially increase our investment capacity.

  • This has also been a great time to buy. In 2011, we bought three hotels and agreed to acquire the exciting development project at 42nd and Broadway in Times Square. As Mark said, and it's worth emphasizing, all six of the hotels that we acquired since 2010 are performing in-line or above our underwriting pro formas, and have significantly upgraded the portfolio.

  • We're encouraged that 2012 will be a good year for acquisitions. We are seeing increasing number of opportunities after a pause last fall. We anticipate that there will be motivated sellers in 2012 because the backlog of debt maturities, private equity funds recycling assets, and a stronger demand for public companies to acquire assets as the market strengthens.

  • Because we believe that we are still early in the cycle, we're optimistic that we can use our strong balance sheet to buy high-quality hotels that will create significant shareholder value. 2012 is setting up for a strong year. The fundamentals of our portfolio, including both group and transient pace, strong city-wide convention years in Boston and Chicago, the completion of the $1 billion City Creek project surrounding our Salt Lake City hotel, the renovated Frenchman's Reef resort, and limited supply increases in most markets, make us optimistic that 2012 will be another great year for DiamondRock. Thank you.

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • Thanks, John. With that, we would now like to open up the call for any questions you might have.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions). Will Marks, JMP Securities.

  • Will Marks - Analyst

  • My first question, I just wanted to ask about, Mark, the comment you made early on about -- was it $80 million of EBITDA that you had at the peak, that you don't have now?

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • That's correct. So, if we look at our hotels' entire portfolio, of what they earned in 2007 versus what they earned in 2011, it is an $80 million difference in hotel-adjusted EBITDA.

  • Will Marks - Analyst

  • And what portfolio are you referring to? Would it be pro forma for the asset sales?

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • Yes, it is pro forma for asset sales, so for the 23 hotels that we were doing -- asset sales.

  • Will Marks - Analyst

  • Thank you. Next question, on the acquisitions you're looking at. Who are the sellers these days?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Well, I would say the sellers are primarily private equity. You know the public company hotels sell for disposition. But the ones that we're seeing are primarily private equity, that may have debt maturities coming up, or anticipating relatively early debt maturities. So I think that's going to be the bulk of the traffic. Having said that, in the first quarter we have not seen a dramatic increase in inventory for sale, but we anticipate that it will come.

  • Will Marks - Analyst

  • And are the assets you're looking at -- are they assets that maybe have some distress issues? Or do they have solid initial yields?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Yes, I think given the level of capital activity that we've got going in the portfolio right now, I think our preference would be for relatively stabilized assets. We will, obviously, look at opportunistic turnarounds if we think there's enough upside. But I think stable yielding assets would probably be our first choice at this point.

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • This is Mark. Just to reemphasize that point, we are looking for assets in top growth markets that can outperform over the next five years. So the distinction is that we are about where the zero cash flow we need to put rooms in vacant floors, these are half-done with building it, or renovations. We're looking for assets in markets like Seattle, San Francisco, Miami, where maybe there is a rebranding opportunity or some light amount of capital. For a reasonable amount of effort, we can see all the upside in that market, along with a potentially re-branding opportunity or repositioning effort on these assets.

  • Will Marks - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Thank you. That's all for me.

  • Operator

  • Jeffrey Donnelly, Wells Fargo.

  • Jeffrey Donnelly - Analyst

  • Mark, I'm just curious, how do you think about the prospects for consolidation in this sector? Because now that some companies are trading at or above NAV, and some below. Maybe as a follow-up to that to, you guys think that your balance sheet is at a point where you are positioned to take advantage of any opportunities should they come to pass? Or do you think that anything else needs to be done there?

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • A couple of comments on consolidation. One is, I think there is logic to a consolidator in the space, and having an alternative to host, at some points. So I do see Marriott and that proposition.

  • As far as the likely combinations, I think we have the balance sheet to be an acquirer, certainly we have one of the best balance sheets of the industry. But as far as the particular sellers, there's a lot of factors that go into that, from companies that may be too small to survive over the long term, unofficially; to other people where they may just have capital structures where they need a solution, which can only come through a combination of companies to solve their balance sheet challenges.

  • Jeffrey Donnelly - Analyst

  • Do you want to name any of them? Just kidding. Maybe just -- that's helpful, thank you. And if I could actually switch gears, maybe with John, what's the term on the agreement with Marriott? Do they look for -- Autograph do they look for three-year agreements? And maybe as a follow-up, how do the fees compare with, say, like a full-on Marriott-branded hotel, with any of the capital that you have to put into that hotel, sort of influenced by Autograph? Or is that all driven by you guys?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Jeff, the agreement with Marriott for the Autograph is a franchise agreement. Those typically run for a 20-year term. The fees for Autograph and Renaissance are lower than the fees for Marriott. I think that was your question.

  • And what we have from Marriott is a combination of key money and a ramp in the fees for the early years, to help compensate for the renovation work that needs to be done.

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • Jeff, this is Mark. Just to add on, one of the things that is unique about Autograph is they will let you franchise a large hotel in Manhattan, where the brands may not let you do that. Or was a Marriott brand -- I don't know of any hotels that -- I was going to say, they would let you franchise. Then we see a big advantage to franchising this.

  • We also really like the Autograph over some other brand alternatives. Because it allows you to appeal to that guest that wants a unique experience in New York, but also wants to be able to submit it, at his company on the expense account, as a hotel that they are allowed to stay at. And they can get their points and make the reservations through the reservation system. So we see a lot of efficiencies in going with the Autograph brand there.

  • Jeffrey Donnelly - Analyst

  • Thus far, just based on what maybe the folks at Marriott were telling you, do you guys think you get the full power of Marriott's reservation system on the cheap, going this route?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Yes, I wouldn't call it on the cheap. But I think -- we do feel you get the full value of the Marriott reservation system. We show up at the same time as Marriotts and Renaissance show up on the webpage. And I think, in general, the customer will be aware as they book, that they are going to get the rewards points. They can make their reservations through thebrand.com. And when they get to the hotel, they'll have a certain level of expectations, which we hope to augment by driving the independent brand equity of the Lexington Hotel.

  • Jeffrey Donnelly - Analyst

  • And I apologize if I missed it in your remarks, but -- and I know Frenchman's isn't in your same-store pool for 2012 -- but I just want to be sure we're capturing it right in our model this year and for next year. Can you give us a sense of what the year-over-year change in EBITDA is looking like for '12 versus 2011? I know last year had the disruption in it, but I would imagine there should be a pretty substantial increase. And maybe could you give us a sense of how it is faring in the first 60 days of the year, versus your expectations?

  • Sean Mahoney - EVP, CFO and Treasurer

  • Jeff, this is Sean. Let me start with the top level, a bridge from 2011 to 2012, at the midpoint of our range. We reported $162 million of EBITDA. You have to back out $10 million from the impact of our dispositions as well as our acquisitions -- the dispositions for the full year and the acquisitions for the pre-period -- the pre-acquisition period. And back out $1 million for the net Allerton difference between 2012, when we are going to exclude that versus 2011.

  • So that, to get to the midpoint of our guidance, that gives us a little bit over $20.5 million of portfolio growth within DiamondRock. And of that $20.5 million, about $10 million of that is disruption from Frenchman's, and the balance from the other portfolio.

  • Now Frenchman's, specifically, is going to have some year-over-year growth as well, so we are expecting approximately $14 million of growth in Frenchman's from 2011 to 2012, which is assumed within that, a little over $20 million portfolio growth.

  • Jeffrey Donnelly - Analyst

  • That is very helpful. And just one last question, actually, on Vail. I'm curious, what's happened with room demand overall in that market? It sounds like your asset-management plan to change the cancellation policy really helped you in Q4 and you can see it in your EBITDA numbers. But maybe I'm misreading your comments about how you expect Vail to be underperforming this year. Does that mean that subsequent to quarter-end you guys have seen some falloff in demand in the market? Or is it really just more of a supply threat that was triggering that comment?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Yes, Jeff, January started as a low snow month. So to the extent we didn't have the reservations on the books, pickup was slower. It wasn't down dramatically, but it was slower. As word has gotten out of the snow conditions -- dramatic improvement, we see great results coming in February and March. So overall for the quarter, I think we will probably lose a little in January and hopefully not much in February or March. And Easter is late this year, so we'll get a little bit of a pickup in early April. assuming the snow keeps coming.

  • Jeffrey Donnelly - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Thanks, guys.

  • Operator

  • Sule Sauvigne, Barclays Capital.

  • Sule Sauvigne - Analyst

  • You mentioned your group pace was up 10.5%. Is that for 2012?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • It is for 2012. And that includes Frenchman's Reef (multiple speakers) and excludes the dispositions hotels.

  • Sule Sauvigne - Analyst

  • Okay. It includes them?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Excludes the disposition hotels.

  • Sule Sauvigne - Analyst

  • And what would be the pricing that you're seeing for those bookings?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • The 10.5% is about 70% rooms and 30% price. We expect that, in the year, for the year, pick up will be the reverse of that -- will be higher price and lower room nights. So net-net, we expect it to be a little bit different ratio.

  • Sule Sauvigne - Analyst

  • And specifically for Frenchman's Reef, can you provide more details on forward group bookings for the property, post-renovations?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Sure. Frenchman's Reef, the pace in 2012 is up about 43%.

  • Sule Sauvigne - Analyst

  • How about pricing?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • That 43% is mostly room nights. But that, again, because we had rooms out of service. And 3% in rate.

  • Sule Sauvigne - Analyst

  • Any early indications of 2013 bookings there?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Yes, we have -- well, not really. There's not enough volume. But it's up about 6% so far, but it's pretty early. That's a short-term booking house.

  • Sule Sauvigne - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Eli Hackel, Goldman Sachs.

  • Eli Hackel - Analyst

  • Just two questions. You just, again, mentioned the Marriott group sales program. What are some of the things that you've done there? I know you've added back staff where necessary. But are there other things you have done to improve the flow and the close rate there?

  • And second, can you just give us an updated timeline on Times Square -- when you think it should open? What kind of EBITDA you expect in the stabilization of that asset, and when do you expect it to be stabilized? Thank you.

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Sure. On the Marriott sales program, some of the changes we made specific to our portfolio is we added destination salespeople at the hotel. And the purpose of that was to, basically, field the leads, do site visits, and help close the business.

  • With respect to the sales officers themselves -- in Chicago, for example, we worked with Marriott to create basically a downtown sales office where the original organization called for a Chicago land sales office, covering 100 hotels. We created a downtown-specific sales office, which obviously helps us with the largest Marriott presence in downtown Chicago.

  • In some of the other markets, it was really a refocusing of efforts. And what Marriott concentrated on was two things, particularly. And that was improving the closure ratio. In other words, the leads were already well up, but the closing ratio was down. And they have done a really good job of improving that.

  • And the what they call pitching and catching -- the export of business if you will, from one sales office to another area.

  • Eli Hackel - Analyst

  • Have you seen real evidence of the pitching and catching working in effect?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Yes, the numbers Marriott gives are actual numbers. With respect to our individual hotels, we've not necessarily tracked it. In terms of 42nd Street, we anticipate that that had started construction; will take about two years to complete, so sometime in '14, it will open -- sorry, sometime in the second quarter of '14 it will open. And we anticipate a $15 million EBITDA for the hotel.

  • Eli Hackel - Analyst

  • And that $15 million, that is under stabilization, or in '14?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • That is stabilization.

  • Eli Hackel - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Andrew Didora, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

  • Andrew Didora - Analyst

  • It seems like you had a nice acceleration in the New York market in January from 4Q. Can you give a little bit more color around what is driving this? And can you also give us the breakdown, in terms of whether the strength is coming more from the Radisson property or from your more limited service properties?

  • Sean Mahoney - EVP, CFO and Treasurer

  • Yes, couple of things on that. First of all, the first quarter, if you remember in 2011, had a weather impact. So there were some snow events that caused a fairly easy comp.

  • Number two, and this is specific to our portfolio, obviously, because so much depends on where you are within the city. At the Lexington Hotel, we were able to put in a contract of airline room nights at $200 a night, which had a dramatic impact on the January results and fourth quarter results, and will going forward.

  • And then at the Marriott hotels, on the midtown hotel, we felt the impact of Citibank, which is a major producer up there. And Fifth Avenue, I think it's a little bit of the supply. But in January, they both performed pretty well.

  • Andrew Didora - Analyst

  • And then just a follow-up on the Marriott sales force transformation process. Is there any way for you guys to quantify, in terms of your current booking pace, how much might be attributable to the transformation?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Not really, but I can tell you that the Marriott component of our pace report is up about 500 basis points more than the balance. That's not really meaningful, because it's not a fair sample size. But it's encouraging to us, because the 13% pace improvement and the Marriott portion of the portfolio is a very strong pace.

  • Andrew Didora - Analyst

  • That's fair. That's it for me. Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Smedes Rose, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

  • Smedes Rose - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask you, you said your group trends were up 10.5%. What are they if you exclude Frenchman's Reef?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • If you exclude Frenchman's, they are about 9% and change.

  • Smedes Rose - Analyst

  • Okay. I think those are both in line with what you guys had given on your last conference call. Is that what you would have expected, that the pace is flat sequentially? Or is that better or worse than you would have thought for now?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Yes, I think we saw, last year, a trend every quarter. The pace improved. I think it flattened out a little bit in the fourth quarter. But it's still very positive.

  • Smedes Rose - Analyst

  • And then another thing I wanted to ask you is, why is the G8 meeting in Chicago a negative for your hotel? I tend to think of those big meetings as positive for the hotels.

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • The problem with the G8 is the amount of protest activity, if you will, that it generates. And so we've had one major group cancellation, about $1 million of State Farm business. But they paid their cancellation fee. And, hopefully, will be able to replace the business. But we are anticipating that other groups are going to be reluctant, and transient travelers are going to be reluctant, to show up coincidentally with G8 just because of the protest activity.

  • Smedes Rose - Analyst

  • That makes sense. Thank you, that was it.

  • Operator

  • Dan Donlan, Janney Capital.

  • Dan Donlan - Analyst

  • Just a question on the Allerton. So, where should -- is the cash interest payments, are they going to be coming in through interest income? Or how is that going to flow through to the income statement now?

  • Sean Mahoney - EVP, CFO and Treasurer

  • Hey, Dan, this is Sean. The cash -- the accounting treatment is going to continue year-over-year and any interests we receive will be accounted for as a reduction of basis. The difference that we are doing this year versus 2011, is that because of the uncertainty on the timing of the resolution of the bankruptcy, we thought that it just made more sense to exclude both the expected cash interest payments coming out of the hotel as well as the legal fees that we plan on incurring during 2012, from our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted FFO guidance.

  • Dan Donlan - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then curious on the asset management plan and fail. Was it a new policy to enact the 45-day non-cancellation policy?

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • This is the first time we've done it, yes, beginning this season.

  • Dan Donlan - Analyst

  • Do you worry at all that those people that booked rooms that had to pay for them 45 days, that they potentially may not ever come back to the hotel?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • We work pretty hard to keep those people happy, just for the reason that the skiing was limited. But there was skiing. And there were other activities going on, in Lion's Head in particular, and Vail in general. So we didn't have a lot of dissatisfaction among the guests. We anticipated it, and we put in some programs to make sure that the guest service was exemplary. And we made sure that they understood exactly what parts of the mountain were open.

  • Dan Donlan - Analyst

  • And then moving on to the Lexington Radisson, is there going to be a point in time where you're not going to have access to Radisson's reservation system, and then not have access to the Marriott's reservation system as well?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • There may be as period where we run as an independent. We've analyzed that pretty carefully, and we are so working with Radisson about timing of the termination of that relationship. We feel pretty comfortable that, although there will be a revenue hit, it won't be substantial because our operator, Highgate, operates several independent hotels in the city, and has a pretty good handle on what we can generate as an independent from a revenue standpoint. And then of course, we don't pay fees and we have other costs we can scale back in the interim, while we are operating as an independent.

  • Dan Donlan - Analyst

  • So you're definitely going to keep Highgate in as the operator, even when it does, eventually -- or will potentially become an Autograph?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • That's right.

  • Dan Donlan - Analyst

  • That's it for me. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Enrique Torres, Green Street Advisors.

  • Enrique Torres - Analyst

  • Over the last two quarters, you gave us the segment breakouts of the transient and leisure segments, where it seems like leisure has been keeping pace. You're doing better than your overall RevPAR growth, and transient has been the opposite, where it's kind of been lagging. Can you provide us a little bit more color on those two segments and your outlook for them in '12?

  • John Williams - President, COO

  • Yes, if you look at the total year, the numbers I gave were the quarter. If you look at the total year, excluding Frenchman's and Inland, it's about 4.5% group growth; 6.7% business transient growth; and 5% leisure and discounts.

  • The area where we have had a different increase -- but it's a kind of higher increase, but it is the law of small numbers -- is in the contract and other. And I just described an airline contract we put it into the Lexington which have an impact on that number. So what we're seeing in general, though, is we are able to shift demand within each segment to higher-rated categories. And that trend has accelerated in the fourth quarter and we expect it to continue into 2012. So it's both the increase within the segment itself, but it's also the shift in the rate strategy within the segments.

  • The numbers I gave for the comparison to peak, show that we've got, between room nights and rate -- in business transient, we've got a 13% gap to what we did in the same portfolio in 2007. And in leisure and other, we've got 20% more room nights than we had at peak. And it's at a significantly lower rate. So there's obvious opportunity for revenue management within the segments and among the segments.

  • Enrique Torres - Analyst

  • Great. That additional color as helpful. That's all I had, thanks.

  • Operator

  • Wes Golladay, RBC.

  • Wes Golladay - Analyst

  • Once you guys source new acquisitions, will you look to sell more assets?

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • I will take that one. So currently, the Inland sale is for $262 million. That will put our balance sheet, if I think about that -- the proceeds from that to pay down the debt, and the new proceeds from the Lexington loan, even after our dividends, that would leave us year-end cash balance of about $150 million and debt to EBITDA of a little over four times for the year, which probably gives us at least $250,000 of investment capacity while still being well within our target leverage. We use a very conservative target leverage level.

  • So issuing equity will depend -- if we think that we're going to do more than $250 million of transactions in the near-term. So it would be an evaluation of what the pipeline looks like at that time.

  • Wes Golladay - Analyst

  • So there's no real assets in the portfolio right now that you guys might want to recycle?

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • There's always -- I think we said in the last call, there's probably two -- everyone, by definition, has about 20% of their portfolio. We are constantly striving to improve our portfolio. So there are one or two assets that we might consider for dispositions this year.

  • Wes Golladay - Analyst

  • And what were you guys pro forma peak margins?

  • Sean Mahoney - EVP, CFO and Treasurer

  • Our pro forma peak adjusted EBITDA margins were approximately, a little under 32%.

  • Wes Golladay - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you, guys.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions). David Loeb, Baird.

  • David Loeb - Analyst

  • I just have a simple clarification. Mark, I apologize if you went over this, but I believe you said with the Allerton note, the resolution is likely to be either you own the hotel or you have a new note. Can you just talk a little bit about what that note might look like?

  • And Sean, does that mean when you take over that new note, would you book a gain, then, from your now-lower basis?

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • David, this is Mark. So it's currently in bankruptcy court now. They submit a plan; we may object to that plan. It will go through a couple of iterations. And one of the resolutions may be that the bankruptcy judge decides to let the stay of foreclosure, just allows us to foreclose out the asset and take ownership. So that is one possibility.

  • The other is, since we are a secured creditor, that they need to give us something of equivalent value to the face amount of our note, the face amount today. And there's a lot of moving pieces here. But it is significantly more than we paid for the note. So they would have to give us a new note at market terms, which is of equivalent value to the note we currently have now. So exactly what that looks like, we're not sure at the moment.

  • David Loeb - Analyst

  • So it sounds like getting paid off is not really on the table anymore.

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • Well, the getting paid off, we can't put ourselves in the shoes of the debtor here. But my guess is that at some point they would want to sell this asset. And the potential new acquirer may decide that they don't want this debt on the hotel. So that is when we would most likely get paid off.

  • David Loeb - Analyst

  • (multiple speakers) Sorry. Didn't mean to interrupt you, Sean.

  • Sean Mahoney - EVP, CFO and Treasurer

  • David, with respect to the gain, I wouldn't anticipate a significant gain on this transaction. What we will do is, when we -- if in fact we get the new note, we would record that at fair value at that time. But I wouldn't anticipate a big significant gain from that note. Because the face value of our note is already in excess of our carrying value, but we would mark that to fair value.

  • David Loeb - Analyst

  • And finally, on that point, this is a two-part question. The new note -- might that be assumable? So that the new owner, if the hotel was sold, would be in a position to keep that debt? That's number one. And number two, would you have interest in keeping that note, or would you likely look to sell it?

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • David, it's all part of the negotiation and what the bankruptcy judge decides, ultimately, is the market value about the transfer provisions. The current note that we have is a typical securitized debt, which has a loan assumption, has defeasance, and has loan assumption provisions in it. So, theoretically, it could be transferred.

  • As far as whether we would want to sell the note or not, would probably depend on the interest rate and the duration of the note at the conclusion of the process.

  • David Loeb - Analyst

  • Thank you for clarifying.

  • Operator

  • And there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Brugger for closing remarks.

  • Mark Brugger - CEO and Director

  • Thank you, Karissa. To everyone on this call, we'd like to express our continued appreciation for your interest in DiamondRock. And we look forward to updating you next quarter. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.