DRDGOLD Ltd (DRD) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everybody. Thank you very much for taking the time to come to our results presentation.

I think the focus of this results presentation would be to give you some insight into some of the changes that have now taken effect and that we've put in place and the effect that it's starting to have on the operations while you read through the disclaimer.

Key features for the period, and this is now the first six-month period results presentation. We did see a slight dip in gold production. And I'll provide more context insofar as that is concerned, later on in the presentation.

The dollar has strengthened quite considerably against the rand. That is maybe a bit of an opportunistic statement to show that all sustaining costs are down 8% in dollar terms certainly. But you'll see when I do the analysis of costs that, in rand terms, it's not quite the case.

We did see a slight uptick in profit of 1% to ZAR165.9 million.

And then headline earnings also up 2.6%. I think that was close to, is that 1000%, is what the announcement was required to say, in the range. And that, of course, has enabled us to, also, look at a small distribution.

Now looking briefly at the operating trends. For us the six months was, to a large extent, one of transition. It was a transitionary period for us in the sense that, right after the June quarter, we decided that, or it became on to the schedule, I suppose, the project schedule, to bring about a number of changes. We'd been talking about increasing our volume profile quite significantly now for quite some time and that kicked in. So we introduced an additional five CIL tanks into the system.

We also made a changeover at one of our smaller sites, Knights, from a fairly high-grade resource to the last of our major sand resources into [406]. That also took place during the quarter. That wasn't without its teething issues. They weren't prolonged, but it did have the effect that we had some unscheduled maintenance at the Knights plant with the thickener playing up for the first time in many, many, years. But then playing up on three occasions before we finally managed to stabilize it. That had a fairly significant impact on the yield grade.

And then we also did the transition from a carbon in pulp circuit to a carbon in leach circuit in the high-grade circuit. And that too came with a degree in lock up.

So if you look at the -- importantly -- make sure I got this right. So you'll see that volumes are up quite a bit, 11%. Cost per tonne remained flat at ZAR77 per kilo.

But then with the yield lower, as a consequence of these three events, the lock up, the transitioning into the new site, and also the transitioning into the CIL circuit, if you look at that, then you would see that the actual impact on cost per unit, cost per kilo, was higher. And it was higher as a consequence of events. It's not higher as a consequence of a new trend.

So production, comparing that quarter, or that period, to this period, you see production remained, by and large, flat. I must say the second half of 2015 was a bit of an outlier. It does introduce a degree of maybe distortion into the long-term trends in the sense that we were in the final stages of the cleanup of a particular site that yielded quite a fairly significantly higher yield from that particular site for that period.

So looking at the financial trends, Riaan will take you through that. And then I'll take you through some of the other events of the quarter. Thanks, Riaan.

Thank you very much, Niel. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It's my privilege to take you through the financial trends for the six-month period. As Niel has mentioned now, as we informed the market, we'll be reporting only every six months now. And the trends that we'll be talking about very much focuses on the six months to December 31, 2015, in comparison to the six months to December 31, 2014.

Niel has mentioned operating costs, very much stable in a rand-per-tonne environment. So if you look at the detail ,obviously in the report to shareholders that's available on our website as well, very much stable at approximately ZAR75 per tonne.

Operating margin ,as you know, look at cash operating costs in comparison to the gold price received and this very much analyzes unit costs. So it's a per kilogram analysis.

So if you look at the detail in that, the cash operating costs per kilogram increased by 16%, period on period, for some of the reasons that Niel already alluded to. One of that is the reduction in yield. So simply speaking, what that means is you have to incur or put through more material, the increase in tonnages, to get roughly the same amount of material. And obviously there, the lower head grade also played a role there.

Yes. And then we dealt with increases in costs, wages, power, water reagents. But we're very comfortable, and as reflected in the rand per tonne costs, that cost for consumables are under control and we've managed to contain that below 5%.

And then the other reason for that drop in margin, as well, if you compare the 16% per kilogram to the 12% increase in average gold price received for the period, yes, on a per kilogram basis, it will actually eat into that margin and hence the decrease from the 16.2% to the 14.7% in the current period.

All-in sustaining costs margin; very similar trend, because it's a per kilogram analysis. Very much driven by the 16% increase in operating costs. But all-in sustaining costs, per kilogram, increased only by 14% as a result of inventory and some environmental adjustments there as well. But similar trend if you compare that to the 12% increase in gold price, yes, it will actually decrease that margin, in comparison to the previous reporting period that we are comparing to.

Headline earnings per share; a healthy ZAR0.026 in comparison to the negative ZAR0.003 in the previous reporting period, reflecting very much stable operations. And there was also an impact in a very positive increase in the life of mine effective July 1, 2015, that resulted in a depreciation charge for this period being lower to the comparative period of December 2014.

Then free cash flow; I want to spend some time on free cash flow. As you know, it's a very important measure as we've communicated to the market before for DRDGOLD. And it really looks like an outlier six months. So some careful explanation required. So I've also included the cash flow statement, which I'll take you through on the next slide.

As you all know, free cash flow measures the net of operating cash flow, less investing, so straight from the cash flow statement. But this six months, very much impacted by major working capital movements. And the biggest one of those is a fairly large VAT receivable from SARS, outside the normal VAT cycle, which is a monthly cycle.

That's all been resolved, post yearend, [and also see in the] results that ZAR30 million of that claim was subsequently December 31 received.

I'll show you now on the cash flow that the operations, before working capital changes, still generated cash of ZAR112 million for the six months. And then also what swung it, when you put it on a graph like that quite significantly is a ZAR45 million change in capital where, in the previous six months, less capital was spent, cash capital, and there was also a once-off, or an unusual, cash profit on the sale of some property in the six months to December 31, 2014. But more on that when I show you the detail on the cash flow statement.

So that's the cash flow from operations with a very important small-print star there, I want you to take note of. So for December 31, there was a negative working capital adjustment, the majority being the VAT reimbursement outstanding, but in total of ZAR50 million. So if you add the ZAR50 million back to the cash flow from operations, because the ZAR61 million is after that, you get to the ZAR112 million, so cash flow before working capital changes.

And then on the investing bit, which makes up the free cash flow, you can see the significant cash spent on additions to property, plant and equipment. Whereas in the previous period, you would remember [gensets] that was purchased by DRDGOLD, but through a finance lease. So that ZAR20 million effect wasn't shown in the cash flow statement, although it was spent on capital.

And then the other outlier, as I mentioned, a significant cash profit as a result of the disposal of property in the previous period. Just to explain the free cash flow.

And then in the six months as well, the loss of the DMTS notes, of ZAR22.5 million, and another small ZAR1 million was paid. We bought back shares, just over 3.2 million shares at just over ZAR2, so ZAR6.5 million-worth of shares.

And then the market knows we paid a cash dividend of ZAR42.2 million showing the decrease overall in cash; still a very healthy cash balance at the end of December of ZAR254 million.

And then very positives in January through the VAT reimbursement, and operationally a very, very good month in January.

On the profit or loss statement, revenue increased by 11%, mainly helped, as I mentioned, by the increase in the average rand gold price received of 12% which buffered the 1% -- slight decline, 1%, in gold production for the six months.

Cost of sales as a total moved 10%, up period on period, which left the Company with cash -- a gross profit from operating activities of ZAR64 million.

Administration expenses and general costs, just to explain that briefly,[last year in the ZAR20.4 million, a fairly large profit included that I alluded to on the cash flow statement, and this ZAR29.3 million also includes an increase in the share base payment expense as a result of a very positive increase in the DRDGOLD's share price over the last couple of months.

Finance income and expense; again just to show the contrast to the cash flow statement, you can see that specifically the finance expense, the majority of that is a non-cash flow movement.

More than ZAR20 million resulting from the unwinding of the environmental provision, but it's a book entry; it's not a cash outflow but it is recorded as a finance expense.

And then income tax, mainly deferred tax, at the moment for DRDGOLD which leaves a bit of a profit of ZAR18.1 million, in comparison to a loss of ZAR2.8 million for the comparative period.

All of that attributable, to the equity owners of the parent, (inaudible) and the previous period there was still non-controlling interest but our BEE partner now owns their economic interest directly at a DRDGOLD level. So they own shares on DRDGOLD.

The statement of financial position or balance sheet; the property, plant and equipment movement from June to December, very much a function of the additions. And then depreciation for that six months, and then any disposal of assets also coming into play there.

Included in the non-current investments and other assets, there was some nice fair value growth [in an invest] -- that's mining investment of about ZAR8 million. And then also growth in our environmental assets in the form of trust funds and also our vehicle -- [our sale capital vehicle] which accounts for that movement.

Cash and cash equivalents, we analyzed comprehensively in the cash flow statement. And there you can see the other current assets quite significantly increased from the previous period.

The majority of that increase sitting in VAT receivable or trade receivables, not trades, other receivables, in that receiver at December 31, was owing DRD VAT outside of the normal cycle.

Equity movement; just the profit going through there. Obviously, any fair value changes [in the invest] that's mining investments that's there, and then you take off the dividends and the share buyback.

Long-term liabilities; [not true], long-term liabilities, what's included in there is a post-retirement medical liability and other employee benefits of ZAR10 million, and then the finance lease obligation that I alluded to of about ZAR18 million.

Provision for environmental rehabilitation; the movement in that balance, partly the unwinding, that's just over ZAR20 million that I explained. There was a slight change in estimate at December 31. And then also some cash spent which we are very proud of and which you would've hopefully seen the west side of the GMTS dump, part of the Crown Tailings Complex, so we continuously spend a lot of money on environmental rehabilitation.

A slight increase in deferred tax liability. And current liabilities down; you would know that the ZAR303 million included the last payment, the ZAR22-odd-million of the DMTS note, and then the balance -- the creditors balance ,also decreased by ZAR10 million, period to period, leaving DRDGOLD in a very healthy current ratio position.

And then, which Niel alluded to, informed the Board to declare an interim dividend of ZAR0.12 per share. If you are a local shareholder and pay dividend tax, that equates to ZAR0.102 per share.

On that high note I'm going to hand back to Niel.

Thank you, Riaan. Just a bit of a recap also on our sustainable development, and particularly the social development side of affairs.

You all know that this is something that we do take seriously and that sustainable development through a process of integrated thinking determines or informs our deployment of capital and resources.

Playing catchup on one of the social investment initiatives, the two school capital infrastructure investments that we made; so Palesa Primary now have their admin block. It was inaugurated earlier or late last year.

And then the library at Dromedaris Primary, that is also in the process of being completed.

Riaan spoke about our environmental expenditure; can't do business here if you don't look after the environment. We're right in the middle of Johannesburg and people don't -- they shouldn't notice our operations. That's how you stay under the radar, so to speak.

We cannot be a nuisance to the environment -- the surrounding communities living around your operations, and therefore dust suppression through vegetation remains a very important part of our operations.

It was a very dry season with winds late in the year. We also had to do some sloping on one of the tailings dams that we are vegetating. So the vegetation's now taking effect, but during that period, when we exposed the side of the tailings dam in order to slope it, we did see some dust exceedances.

Our target is to reduce that by half every year, and it's a target that we're comfortably achieving. We did 12 hectares of vegetation on the Crown Tailings Complex, and for the next 12 months the objective is to do a total of 35 hectares.

On the water side, I think the drought just reminded us once again that we do have to be very deliberate in how we manage access to water. It's the lifeblood of our operations. Everything that we produce is done by way of water, and we do have to make sure that we've got a very healthy, fallback situation.

Sewerage that we -- sewerage water purified or treated sewerage that we're bringing into our circuit, that's working really well; we're looking at a second one. And then, of course, we also have access to treated AMD to the extent that we require, coming out of the plant that's been built on, or that was built, on our ERPM footprint and that we're assisting Government in.

Now, the capital infrastructure being where it is, with the investments that we wanted to make being in place, and I think with metallurgical efficiency now starting to train towards stable state. You'd have seen in the letter to shareholders that I make the point that volume throughput has now become our largest risk, not because it's a bigger risk or because of new additional risks to volume throughput, but just that metallurgical efficiency's down dipped to below volume throughput.

So, off this platform it's now been in the making for the last seven year or eight years. And seeing the results that we're seeing of residue values having come down by the targeted 0.3 gram a tonne, we're now in a position where, of this capital infrastructure, we can start looking around and looking at ways and means of extending our life of mine.

We are sitting on probably one of the largest on-surface resources, or stockpiles, in the world, and we obviously want to do something with it. We don't want to only mine for the next seven years and then call it quits.

We want to see if we can take this business into the future because it is a very unique combination of infrastructure resource, water deposition capacity and access.

So this is really what is informing our thinking at this stage, this graph. And, in a very simplistic way it illustrates what we currently have at our disposal which we can mine, it's throughout that line there.

So that's our seven-odd years of mining lying ahead of us, 200 million tonnes. You'll see that 200 million tonnes come in at just between a 0.3 grams a tonne and 0.31 grams a tonne. That's the head grade.

Now, because less gold is leaving the plant it means that you could move backwards on this graph here, on the gray graph, and still get the same amount of gold.

And even to the extent that you move further back, then the 0.3 gram a tonne, you could move further backwards by upping your volume profile, and that's what this is all about.

So conceptually it would seem that we can produce gold at ZAR450,000 a kilo, all in, if we were processing 2.7 million tonnes and if the material that we processed contained an average of just about 0.25 gram a tonne. And we could do that until after we've chewed our way through 500 million tonnes of material.

And you divide 500 million by 2.7, times 12, which is your annual production, and that gives you an idea of just how near, how close, this very significant resource has become and what the costs involved in bringing it to account, what that involves.

So, obviously at [625, 630], that is not an insignificant margin that we can pursue sitting on our existing infrastructure. And that is what we mean by resource optionality.

Now, we're not rushing into anything just yet, one of the key features of this project, of this concept, is additional deposition capacity. At the moment we're putting just more than 2 million tonnes of slime on to our deposition site. In order to have 2.7 million tonne of capacity you can't just put more on to the existing deposition site, you've got to expand the size of that site.

And we have one, at our disposal, which has about 0.5 billion tonne of capacity, it's a registered deposition site, in other words there is a permit for it, but before you can start depositing you've got to submit new environment compliance filings and studies. The most important of which is your water usage conditions, because it's -- all of the slurry's carried by water, and if you're going to be storing it there then it assumes a compliance of sorts.

Our big concern to the regulator is the pollution of underground water and surrounding water sources, so they want to make sure that your site is contained. And the new thinking in this regard is that your tailings dam must have a lining, some sort of a membrane, that stops water from seeping into the groundwater, into the aquifers.

Now, as it turns out, it might be by coincidence, it might be because they were brilliant at the time, the owners of this tailings dam before us had gone and built it on top of impermeable dolerite, which means that you don't require that membrane, you don't require that lining. You can build it on top of the existing soil, and there won't be a contamination or a pollution of existing aquifers and water sources.

That's now been accepted, in principle, by the Department of Water Affairs, they are going to give us a document to that effect. We think that they are keen for us to expand the capacity of this dam because it's also their deposition site for the slurry that they're producing from the AMD water purification plant. It's in both our interests to build this tailings dam, and we think that is just around the corner that we'll be getting it.

This is your big catalyst, and at this stage it would seem as though the capital expenditure over time, construction time, for this piece of infrastructure is going to be about ZAR400 million to ZAR450 million.

Our thinking is to fund that out of cash flows as we go forward. It won't be next month's cash flows, it won't be next year's cash flows, it could be the year after that or maybe the year after that, depending on how rapidly we want to do this. Obviously, you can moderate the tempo at which you want to deposit into this new site by retaining some site on to -- or capacity on to the existing site. So it's going to be a balancing act.

All of this work will take place over the next 24-odd months before we present a feasibility to our Board, and then hopefully at the end of our current seven year life of mine we can hit the ground running and we can have a seamless transition into this, to the extent that the gold price allows us to do that, that at the time, taking into consideration whatever fluctuations there might be, that we still have this healthy kind of margin.

And I think that's probably -- that takes care of the career of most of the people in the room, most of senior management in the room. The youngsters are probably going to be looking at that beyond that point. But this is where I think this team can go to optimize the resource, and to further extend the life of mine, and play its role in the social investments that we're making in the environmental cleanup that we're making, introducing just north of ZAR2 billion into the economy, a multiple of 7, so it's ZAR14 billion-worth of economic activity coming out of this little Company. And it's something that we want to continue to do, all the while still maintaining our track record as a dividend payer.

We are very grateful that operational efficiencies and gold price, and all these things that need to come together to generate cash flows and yield a return, have been falling in place in such a way that we can again now pay our second interim dividend, which must make us one of the most impressive dividend yielders in the industry. It is now nine years without interruption that DRDGOLD has been paying dividends.

So, looking ahead; last year was a year of transition. You'll remember that when I did the results presentation in August that we said that we're taking a bit of surplus cash into the new financial year, we're not distributing all of our free cash. Because gold price was uncertain at the time, we were also in the process of putting all these new additions and transitions in our operating circuit into effect.

I think we've learned by now that you have a fairly good idea as to what's going to happen with new technology, but you only know once you know, and you know once the gold bar is lying on that table, once the chopper comes in, picks it up, flies it to Rand Refinery, they sample it and they say, yes, you're spot on. That's when you really know.

Share price is also very low, and we thought that instead of dishing out money to a shareholder base that at this stage it's not supporting the stock for all the right reasons, for all the good reasons, maybe we should support the capital of the Company, buy back some stock, and see what happens by now, by February, if there's going to be a change in the share price.

Now all of the good things that had to happen have in fact happened, we've seen an operating footprint that is increasingly stable and increasingly reliable; we've seen a very good increase in our share price, and it's obviously on the back of what's been happening in the gold price space, but nonetheless I don't think the stock has undervalued any more. We have bought some shares and we now still have some surplus cash. And that's why we've decided to -- well that's why we remembered, we reminded ourselves of the undertaking that we gave and that's why the interim dividend is now being paid.

So, going forward, we obviously want to make sure that we take full advantage of our newfound or new-established metallurgical efficiency, we want to see how the gold keeps churning out of our plant, we want to see if there are better ways of maybe improving it even further. I think off our existing technologies it's really a matter now of tweaking, of making sure that we're plugging whatever remaining holes there might still be. And then making sure that we keep a close look on the dials, and my colleagues will feel slightly nauseous by this analogy, but we're very much in the realm of instrument flying here, you've got to make sure that you keep your eye on the dials. This is not an intuitive business, this is something where you've got to stick to the recipe.

And we saw how dabbling around or playing around a little bit with cyanide dosage, that caused a drop in efficiency earlier on, and we just cannot allow that sort of thing to do. So, when we talk about making sure that we manage the throughput risk, that we manage the output risk, I want to make sure that we stick to the recipe because it's too late, once it manifests, it's too late, it's a mistake that we've made several weeks earlier, and just develop these systems.

We've had a team onsite now for the last few months, [Metworks], that in the past it helped us to design a system in terms of which we track and we plot, and we measure, and we write down, physically write down some very specific trends, and some very specific parameters on a daily basis so that you can see exactly where you are with regards to where the dial is supposed to be, that you can take steps immediately and not wait until after the end of the month and you're looking for the gold and it's not there, it's on the tailings dam.

We want to develop this resource optionality, it's not a question of if, it's now a question of when. And the balancing act is one of making sure that we keep our promise to our shareholders, that we keep on paying surplus cash to shareholders, and we are going to be, I think, a little bit more ambitious insofar as the cash buffer is concerned.

We don't have massive capital projects laying ahead of us, so the buffer that we're keeping is slightly smaller and increasingly also starting to rely a bit on the facility that we've got, we've got ZAR100 million revolver. so we want to make sure that we're not overly conservative when it comes to that.

And then at the same time, also not to start spending money prematurely on the new capital infrastructure that is required to have a seamless extension of life of mine beyond the seven years that we're currently looking at.

It's important for us to also develop our home ownership model, and there are ways and means of communicating with staff to find out exactly what the appetite is. We do want our employees to mostly live in their own homes and that they're paid off by the time that they retire.

And then, of course, the vegetation process will continue unabated. It's the availability of water that determines the rate at which we can do that, but it's certainly something that we take seriously and that we will continue doing.

So, now you take the numbers now, and as I said earlier maybe just a little bit of perspective on unit costs, and margin and so forth, and you look where the gold price has turned, and what that adds to prospective revenues going forward. And hopefully this is the sort of message that we will have at regular intervals; discussions about surplus cash and distributions to shareholders.

Business was set-up for now; now is happening, and I think we are very well positioned to take advantage of what's been happening in the gold market.

There's been a healthy return to fear in the global markets; fear is making a big comeback. All the comfort that we took from capital, just been dumped into global economies. That enthusiasm seems to be waning and realism is settling in again. And that will support the gold price, so long may it continue; not the fear, the gold price.

Right. So Riaan and Jaco are here with me, and we'd be happy to take your questions.

Brendan Ryan, Miningmx. If I could just come at you on this balancing act and paying surplus cash to shareholders. If it's going to be 24 months before you present the feasibility study, am I correct in assuming you're not going to spend any CapEx on this extension of life for the next two years?

Jaco's sitting far too close to me, because I think if he throws something heavy at me then he might actually hit me in the head.

The monies that we're spending on that, it's ZAR5 million on environmental feasibilities and that sort of thing, but we're not spending any capital infrastructure money at this stage.

Okay. Well then, if I listen to your comments about not wanting to be too conservative, and assuming this new margin holds up, for the next two years, am I correct in assuming you guys are going to pay out some very good looking dividends?

It will stay the same, yes. If the gold price stays where it is and if we can manage the volume throughput, and if we can keep the plant stable, there will be significant margin. If it changes, obviously that eats up your margin, but we don't see any significant cost pressures coming through.

I don't know how long the cycle will last; maybe the fact that it's gone up so quickly might mean that it will come down again as quickly -- we don't know. But our philosophy has been a consistent one. I think the message that we've been preaching has been a consistent one.

We're a margin-focused business; cash flow is king. Cash flow is paramount in our business, and surplus cash goes to shareholders. And we've got a very specific formula that we use to determine what needs to stay behind and what needs to go to shareholders.

So if it's a lot that needs to go to shareholders, then we aren't going to say no, this is too much and our dividend will look bad next year because it might be less; it will go to shareholders.

Leroy Mnguni, RMB Morgan Stanley. I guess my question is just a follow-on on that one. If you look at your cash balance, about ZAR250 million, you've just got an extra ZAR30 million in from the VAT refund, you're paying ZAR50 million in dividends. So ZAR230 million, it seems like a lot of cash. We're grateful for the dividend, but could it not have been a bit higher?

So deciding the size of the dividend is always a debate, and some of us are very aggressive and others are not. So, at some point there's a compromise, even when it comes to the discussion.

I think it's a responsible interim; as an interim I think it's the right number.

You take that ZAR230 million going forward to be the comfortable cash buffer -- ?

Well we look at it -- if the same circumstances, and I know I sound like a politician or a lawyer, but if the same circumstances were to continue, then that's the buffer.

We look at a month's working capital, plus a little bit -- we add a little bit on top of that. Then we've got some cash that's locked in on guarantees to the likes of Eskom and [environment] and so forth, I think about ZAR40 million if I'm not mistaken.

And then we also just look at the immediate term, the short-term risk profile; what are the contingencies?

And I must admit that one of the contingencies that we factored into our thinking here is that we are going into a period where we do believe that there could be some national labor instability, in the sense that we know there's a bit of rivalry taking place -- quite a lot of rivalry taking place between unions -- not everything has been settled.

And we're not an island that, notwithstanding the fact -- the mere fact that we've got a stable labor force doesn't mean that there are no risk of labor disruptions. We have suppliers who have labor, we have services providers that have labor, and there's a bit of tension simmering below the surface which could have an impact. So we took that into consideration as well.

(inaudible), Momentum SP Reid. In terms of the Soccer City dump, where is it now? Is it depleted? And, if it's depleted, where are we going to see some additional material coming from?

Oh, you're talking about the JCC Dump, opposite the road from our tailings deposition facility?

Just south of Johannesburg, the M2 East or the M2 West, depending on which direction you're from, but if you're on the M2 East, so in other words travelling from the center of town towards Germiston, you know where that Shell Garage is on the left-hand side? The new one that's just been refurbished? Now, opposite the road from it, there's a very large tailing stand; that's the follow-on.

So as JCC is depleted, that one comes on line to maintain volume throughput. I think we're about, what two months' away -- two months away from commissioning.

In terms of grades, is it the same or it will be at a lower--?

It's marginally lower, but it's an easier site to mine because it's slime. It's not a sand dump, so you don't have yellow machinery moving around; you've got the high pressure hydraulic mining.

Thank you.

All right, that's it. Brendan, yes?

Niel, where is this new deposition site that you were talking about?

It's right next to the existing one. It was in fact an established site and then it was recycled by the former owners, and that site is -- it remained licensed, it's still a licensed site.

So ultimately once -- in 50 years, in 20 -- is it 50, I think is what we -- you've got your model -- in [2050] it will be a flat dam but with an additional [8] kilometers added to its circumference, about 8 kilometers/9 kilometers added to its circumference.

Okay, I think that's it. Cheryl, did you put up your hand? No, oh. All right, thank you very much, everyone.