大全新能源 (DQ) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Daqo New Energy Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2020 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到大全新能源第四季度和 2020 財年業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Alex (sic) [Kevin] He, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議轉交給投資者關係部的 Alex (sic) [Kevin] He。請繼續。

Hello, everyone. I'm Kevin He, the Investor Relations of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy just issued its financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020, which can be found on our website at www.dqsolar.com. To facilitate today's conference call, we also have prepared a PPT presentation for your reference. Today, attending the conference call, we have Mr. Longgen Zhang, our Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Ming Yang, our Chief Financial Officer. The call today will feature an update from Mr. Zhang on market and operations, and then Mr. Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2020. After that, we will open the floor to Q&A from the audience.

大家好。我是大全新能源投資者關係部的Kevin He。感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。大全新能源剛剛發布了 2020 財年第四季度的財務業績，可以在我們的網站 www.dqsolar.com 上找到。為了方便今天的電話會議，我們還準備了一份PPT演示文稿供大家參考。今天，參加電話會議的有我們的首席執行官張龍根先生；以及我們的首席財務官楊明先生。今天的電話會議將由張先生介紹市場和運營的最新情況，然後楊先生將討論公司第四季度和 2020 財年的財務業績。之後，我們將開放觀眾問答環節.

Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth, are forward-looking statements that are made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the reports or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始正式發言之前，我想提醒您，今天電話會議的某些陳述，包括預期的未來運營和財務業績以及行業增長，都是根據美國私人證券訴訟的安全港條款作出的前瞻性陳述1995 年改革法案。這些陳述涉及固有的風險和不確定性。許多因素可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。有關這些風險和其他風險的更多信息包含在我們已提交或提供給美國證券交易委員會的報告或文件中。

These statements only reflect our current and preliminary view as of today and is subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties. All information provided in today's call is as of today, and we undertake no duty to update such information, except as required under applicable law. Also during the call, we will occasionally reference monetary amounts in U.S. dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer these translations into U.S. dollars solely for the convenience for the audience.

這些陳述僅反映我們截至今天的當前和初步觀點，可能會發生變化。我們實現這些預測的能力受到風險和不確定性的影響。今天電話中提供的所有信息都是截至今天的，我們不承擔更新此類信息的義務，除非適用法律要求。同樣在通話期間，我們偶爾會以美元為單位參考貨幣金額。請記住，我們的功能貨幣是人民幣。我們將這些翻譯成美元只是為了方便觀眾。

Without further ado, I now turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Zhang.

事不宜遲，我現在將電話轉給我們的首席執行官張先生。

Thank you, Kevin. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our conference call today. We are very pleased to report a strong quarter in terms of operational and financial results to bring a successful close of the year 2020. I would like to thank our entire team for their hard work, commitment and dedication in achieving these excellent results. During the quarter, we produced 21,008 metric tons of polysilicon, a record high in our company's history. Our production cost was reduced by 2.7% in renminbi terms, primarily due to our efforts in additional energy savings, offset by a higher-than-expected rise in the cost of silicon raw materials in the fourth quarter. The increase in our cost in U.S. dollar terms compared to the third quarter was a result of exchange rate fluctuations due to renminbi appreciation. In 2021, we will continue our efforts to reduce cost as we begin to benefit from our newly implemented digital manufacturing system to maximize our output, optimize our production process and further improve our operational stability and product quality.

謝謝你，凱文。大家好。感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。我們很高興地報告本季度在運營和財務業績方面表現強勁，為 2020 年畫上了圓滿的句號。我要感謝我們整個團隊為取得這些優異成績所做的辛勤工作、承諾和奉獻。本季度，我們生產了 21,008 公噸多晶矽，創下公司歷史新高。以人民幣計算，我們的生產成本下降了 2.7%，這主要是由於我們努力進一步節約能源，但被第四季度高於預期的矽原材料成本上漲所抵消。與第三季度相比，我們以美元計算的成本增加是由於人民幣升值引起的匯率波動。 2021年，我們將繼續努力降低成本，因為我們開始受益於我們新實施的數字化製造系統，以最大限度地提高我們的產量，優化我們的生產流程，並進一步提高我們的運營穩定性和產品質量。

During the months of November and December 2020, we saw a significant pickup in polysilicon demand from our customers to meet their increasing production needs to serve the growing solar end market. During the fourth quarter, we sold 23,186 metric tons of polysilicon, which is the highest quarterly sales volume the company ever achieved. Since the beginning of 2021, we continue to see rising polysilicon market prices, and most recently market poly ASP has reached a range of $15 per kg to $16 per kg. As our mono wafer customers continue their capacity expansion plans, supported by a robust downstream market demand, we believe that the supply of polysilicon will continue to be very tight throughout the year, given very limited additional polysilicon supply this year.

在 2020 年 11 月和 12 月期間，我們看到客戶對多晶矽的需求顯著回升，以滿足他們不斷增長的生產需求，以服務於不斷增長的太陽能終端市場。第四季度，我們銷售了 23,186 公噸多晶矽，這是公司有史以來最高的季度銷量。自 2021 年初以來，我們繼續看到多晶矽市場價格上漲，最近市場多晶矽平均售價達到每公斤 15 美元至 16 美元的範圍。由於我們的單晶矽客戶在強勁的下游市場需求的支持下繼續他們的產能擴張計劃，我們相信全年的多晶矽供應將繼續非常緊張，因為今年的額外多晶矽供應非常有限。

Regarding the status of proposed initial public offering of our Xinjiang Daqo subsidiary in China's STAR Market, the stock listing committee of China (sic) [Shanghai] Stock Exchange Star Market reviewed Xinjiang Daqo's application in February 2, 2021, and determined that Xinjiang Daqo has already met the offering, listing and disclosure requirements related to its potential STAR Market IPO. As the next step, Xinjiang Daqo will need to be -- to go through the registration process with China Securities Regulatory Commission before the STAR Market IPO can take place. The proceeds of its potential IPO will be used to fund our Phase 4B polysilicon project with an annual capacity of 35,000 metric tons. We have already started the preparation work for Phase 4B, including the design and procurement process. We plan to start the construction in middle March and expect to complete the project by the end of 2021 and ramp it up to full capacity by the end of Q1 2022.

關於我們新疆大全子公司擬在中國科創板首次公開發行的情況，中國（原文如此）[上海]證券交易所科創板股票上市委員會於 2021 年 2 月 2 日審查了新疆大全的申請，並確定新疆大全已已經滿足與其潛在的科創板 IPO 有關的發行、上市和披露要求。下一步，新疆大全需要——在科創板上市前完成中國證監會的備案手續。其潛在 IPO 的收益將用於資助我們年產能為 35,000 公噸的 4B 期多晶矽項目。我們已經開始了4B階段的準備工作，包括設計和採購過程。我們計劃在 3 月中旬開始建設，預計到 2021 年底完成該項目，並在 2022 年第一季度末達到滿負荷生產。

I have been in the solar industry for over a decade, and the prospects for the solar industry have never been bright. Driven by the dual trends of solar grid parity and the urgent need to address climate change, the industry is on the cusp of undergoing tremendous growth over the next few years without the need for government subsidies. Solar energy is now one of the most competitive form of power generation ever -- even compared to fossil fuel, and we are beginning to see real-world applications where solar is the optimal choice to meet growing energy needs and to replace legacy carbon-based generation. Major economies around the world have also begun to implement ambitious policies and initiatives to support and mandate the use of renewable energy for power generation.

本人從事太陽能行業十多年，太陽能行業的前景從來都不是一片光明。在太陽能平價上網和應對氣候變化的迫切需要雙重趨勢的推動下，該行業在未來幾年內將在無需政府補貼的情況下實現巨大增長。太陽能現在是有史以來最具競爭力的發電形式之一——甚至與化石燃料相比，我們也開始看到現實世界的應用，在這些應用中，太陽能是滿足不斷增長的能源需求和取代傳統碳基燃料的最佳選擇一代。世界主要經濟體也開始實施雄心勃勃的政策和舉措，以支持和強制使用可再生能源發電。

The European Union has announced its Green Deal to fight climate change through progressive policies for climate neutral and sustainable EU with the goal of no net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 and to decarbonize the energy sector. Over the next few years, the European Climate Law is expected to turn this political commitment into a legal obligation. In China, President Xi Jinping has announced China will aim to hit peak emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060, and we expect various government agencies, including the NEA and the NDRC, to introduce and implement policies to mandate and support the use of renewable energy.

歐盟宣布了其綠色協議，通過氣候中立和可持續發展的歐盟漸進政策來應對氣候變化，目標是到 2050 年實現溫室氣體零淨排放，並使能源部門脫碳。在接下來的幾年裡，歐洲氣候法有望將這一政治承諾轉化為法律義務。在中國，習近平主席已宣布中國的目標是在 2030 年前達到排放峰值並在 2060 年前實現碳中和，我們期待包括國家能源局和發改委在內的各個政府機構出台和實施政策，以強制和支持使用可再生能源。

For 2021, the NEA has indicated its intention to accelerate the development of wind and solar energy with a goal of adding a combined 120-gigawatt of wind and solar in 2021. In the U.S., with the Biden administration commitment to fight climate change and plan for clean energy revolution with a goal of achieving a 100% clean energy economy and reaching net zero emissions no later than 2050, we believe favorable policies are forthcoming to support renewable energy's growth in the U.S. We are standing at the beginning of a new era that will demand more and more clean, renewable and cost-effective energy resources, among which solar PV is one of the most competitive. We will focus on our core business, continue to expand capacity and further improve quality to better serve the fast-growing solar PV market.

2021年，國家能源局表示將加快風能和太陽能的發展，目標是在2021年增加120吉瓦的風能和太陽能。在美國，拜登政府致力於應對氣候變化和計劃對於以實現 100% 清潔能源經濟和不遲於 2050 年實現淨零排放為目標的清潔能源革命，我們相信有利的政策即將出台，以支持美國可再生能源的增長。我們正站在一個新時代的開始，將需要越來越多的清潔、可再生和具有成本效益的能源，其中太陽能光伏是最具競爭力的能源之一。我們將聚焦核心業務，持續擴大產能，進一步提升品質，更好地服務於快速發展的太陽能光伏市場。

Now let me discuss our outlook and guidance for our future. The company expects to produce approximately 19,500 metric tons to 20,500 metric tons of polysilicon and sell approximately 20,000 metric tons to 21,000 metric tons of polysilicon to external customers during the first quarter of 2021. For the full year of 2021, the company expects to produce approximately 80,000 to 81,000 metric tons of polysilicon, inclusive of the impact of the company's annual facility maintenance.

現在讓我談談我們對未來的展望和指導。公司預計2021年第一季度將生產約19,500公噸至20,500公噸多晶矽，並向外部客戶銷售約20,000公噸至21,000公噸多晶矽。2021年全年，公司預計生產約20,000公噸至21,000公噸多晶矽。 80,000 至 81,000 公噸多晶矽，包括公司年度設施維護的影響。

Now I will turn the call over to our CFO, Mr. Yang, who will discuss the company's financial performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2020.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的首席財務官楊先生，他將討論公司第四季度和 2020 財年的財務業績。

Thank you, Longgen, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. Now I will discuss our company's financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2020. Revenues were $247.7 million compared to $125.5 million in the third quarter of 2020 and $118.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. The 97% increase in revenue in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter was primarily due to higher polysilicon sales volumes and higher polysilicon average selling prices.

謝謝龍根，大家好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。現在我將討論我們公司 2020 年第四季度的財務業績。收入為 2.477 億美元，而 2020 年第三季度為 1.255 億美元，2019 年第四季度為 1.189 億美元。與 2019 年第四季度相比，第四季度收入增長了 97%到第三季度，主要是由於多晶矽銷量增加和多晶矽平均售價增加。

Gross profit for the fourth quarter was $109.5 million compared to $45.3 million in the third quarter of 2020 and $35.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. Gross margin was 44.2% compared to 36% in the third quarter of 2020 and 29.5% in the fourth quarter of 2019. The increase in gross margin was primarily due to higher ASPs. Our polysilicon average production cost was $5.92 per kilogram in the fourth quarter compared to $5.82 per kilogram in the third quarter. The slight increase in ASP was primarily the result of RMB appreciation versus the U.S. dollar during the quarter.

第四季度的毛利潤為 1.095 億美元，而 2020 年第三季度為 4530 萬美元，2019 年第四季度為 3510 萬美元。毛利率為 44.2%，而 2020 年第三季度為 36%，第四季度為 29.5% 2019 年第四季度。毛利率的增長主要是由於平均售價較高。我們的多晶矽平均生產成本在第四季度為每公斤 5.92 美元，而第三季度為每公斤 5.82 美元。 ASP 的小幅增長主要是由於本季度人民幣兌美元升值。

In RMB terms, our production costs in Q4 was reduced by 2.7% as compared to Q3, primarily as a result of improvements in energy and operational efficiencies, despite a higher-than-expected rise in silicon metal raw material costs in the fourth quarter. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $11.2 million compared to $9.2 million in the third quarter of 2020 and $9 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. The increase in SG&A costs was primarily due to an increase in shipping costs as a result of higher sales volume for the fourth quarter as well as an increase in personnel costs.

以人民幣計算，我們第四季度的生產成本較第三季度下降了 2.7%，這主要是由於能源和運營效率的提高，儘管第四季度金屬矽原材料成本的漲幅高於預期。銷售、一般和管理費用為 1120 萬美元，而 2020 年第三季度為 920 萬美元，2019 年第四季度為 900 萬美元。SG&A 成本的增加主要是由於銷量增加導致運輸成本增加第四季度以及人員成本的增加。

SG&A expenses during the quarter included $4.5 million in noncash share-based compensation costs related to the company's share incentive plan. R&D expenses for the quarter was $1.5 million compared to $1.7 million in the third quarter of 2020 and $1.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. R&D expenses for the quarter included projects related to quality and purity improvements for N-type polysilicon as well as other technology upgrade project and can vary from period to period, reflecting R&D activities that take place during the quarter.

本季度的 SG&A 費用包括與公司股權激勵計劃相關的 450 萬美元非現金股權補償費用。本季度的研發費用為 150 萬美元，而 2020 年第三季度為 170 萬美元，2019 年第四季度為 120 萬美元。本季度的研發費用包括與 N 型多晶矽的質量和純度改進相關的項目以及其他技術升級項目，並且可能因時期而異，反映了本季度進行的研發活動。

Income from operations was $98 million compared to $33.3 million in the third quarter of 2020 and $30.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. Operating margin was 39.6% compared to 26.6% in the third quarter of 2020 and 25.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019. Interest expense was $8.3 million compared to $5.4 million in the third quarter of 2020 and $3.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in bank interest charges as well as bank fees related to Chinese bank notes.

營業收入為 9800 萬美元，而 2020 年第三季度為 3330 萬美元，2019 年第四季度為 3010 萬美元。營業利潤率為 39.6%，而 2020 年第三季度為 26.6%，2019 年第四季度為 25.3%利息支出為 830 萬美元，而 2020 年第三季度為 540 萬美元，2019 年第四季度為 390 萬美元。增加的主要原因是銀行利息費用以及與中國紙幣相關的銀行手續費增加。

EBITDA was $115.1 million compared to $51.6 million in the third quarter 2020 and $45.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. EBITDA margin was 46.5% compared to 41.1% in the third quarter of 2020 and 38.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019. Net income attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholder was $72.8 million compared to $20.8 million in the third quarter of 2020 and $20.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. Earnings per basic ADS was $1.01 compared to $0.29 in the fourth quarter of 2020 and $0.29 in the fourth quarter of 2019.

EBITDA 為 1.151 億美元，而 2020 年第三季度為 5160 萬美元，2019 年第四季度為 4540 萬美元。EBITDA 利潤率為 46.5%，而 2020 年第三季度為 41.1%，2019 年第四季度為 38.2%。淨收入歸屬於大全新能源股東的收益為 7280 萬美元，而 2020 年第三季度為 2080 萬美元，2019 年第四季度為 2010 萬美元。每股基本 ADS 收益為 1.01 美元，而 2020 年第四季度為 0.29 美元，第四季度為 0.29 美元2019 年。

Now on the company's financial condition. As of December 31, 2020, the company had $118.4 million in cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash compared to $109.8 million as of September 30, 2020. And as of December 31, 2020, the notes receivable balance was $0.2 million compared to $1.9 million as of September 30, 2020. As of December 31, 2020, total bank borrowings were $193.7 million, of which $123.2 million were long-term borrowings compared to total bank borrowings of $271 million, including $140 million of long-term bank borrowings as of September 30, 2020.

現在關於公司的財務狀況。截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日，公司擁有 1.184 億美元現金和現金等價物以及受限制現金，而截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日為 1.098 億美元。截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日，應收票據余額為 20 萬美元，而 190 萬美元截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日。截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日，銀行借款總額為 1.937 億美元，其中 1.232 億美元為長期借款，銀行借款總額為 2.71 億美元，其中包括截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日的長期銀行借款 1.4 億美元2020 年 9 月 30 日。

For the 12 months ended December 31, 2020, net cash provided by operating activities was $209.7 million compared to $181 million in the same period of 2019. And for the full year of 2020, net cash used in investing activities was $118.5 million compared to $261.8 million in the same period of 2019. Net cash used in investing activities in 2020 and 2019 was primarily related to the capital expenditures on the company's Phase 4A polysilicon project. And for the 12 months ended December 31, 2020, net cash used in financing activities was $95.5 million compared to net cash provided by financing activities of $102.3 million in the same period of 2019.

截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日止的 12 個月，經營活動提供的現金淨額為 2.097 億美元，而 2019 年同期為 1.81 億美元。2020 年全年，用於投資活動的現金淨額為 1.185 億美元，而 2019 年同期為 2.618 億美元。 2019年同期為萬元。2020年和2019年投資活動使用的現金淨額主要與公司4A期多晶矽項目資本性支出有關。截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日止的 12 個月，融資活動使用的現金淨額為 9550 萬美元，而 2019 年同期融資活動提供的現金淨額為 1.023 億美元。

Now on the company's full year 2020 results. Revenues were $675.6 million compared to $350 million in 2019. The increase in revenue was primarily due to higher polysilicon sales volume, as 2020 polysilicon sales volume increased to 74,812 tons as compared to 38,110 tons in 2019. Gross profit was $234 million compared to $80.1 million in 2019. Gross margin was 34.6% compared to 22.9% in 2019. The increase in gross margin was primarily due to lower polysilicon production costs.

現在公佈公司 2020 年全年業績。收入為 6.756 億美元，而 2019 年為 3.50 億美元。收入的增加主要是由於多晶矽銷量增加，2020 年多晶矽銷量增加至 74,812 噸，而 2019 年為 38,110 噸。毛利為 2.34 億美元，而 2019 年為 8,010 萬美元2019 年毛利率為 34.6%，而 2019 年為 22.9%。毛利率上升主要是由於多晶矽生產成本下降。

Selling, general and administrative expenses for 2020 was $39.5 million compared to $32.9 million in 2019. The increase in SG&A expense was primarily due to an increase in shipping costs as a result of higher sales volume as well as increase in personnel costs. R&D expenses were $6.9 million compared to $5.3 million in 2019. Income from operations was $187.9 million compared to $47.5 million in 2019.

2020 年的銷售、一般和行政費用為 3950 萬美元，而 2019 年為 3290 萬美元。SG&A 費用的增加主要是由於銷量增加導致運輸成本增加以及人員成本增加。研發費用為 690 萬美元，而 2019 年為 530 萬美元。運營收入為 1.879 億美元，而 2019 年為 4750 萬美元。

Operating margin was 27.8% compared to 13.6% in 2019. Net income attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was $129.2 million compared to $29.5 million in 2019. Earnings per basic ADS was $1.82 compared to $0.43 in 2019. Adjusted net income attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was $147.1 million compared to $47.4 million in 2019. Adjusted earnings per basic ADS was $2.07 compared to $0.70 in 2019.

營業利潤率為 27.8%，而 2019 年為 13.6%。歸屬於大全新能源股東的淨利潤為 1.292 億美元，而 2019 年為 2950 萬美元。每股基本 ADS 收益為 1.82 美元，而 2019 年為 0.43 美元。調整後歸屬於大全新能源的淨利潤股東為 1.471 億美元，而 2019 年為 4740 萬美元。調整後的每股基本 ADS 收益為 2.07 美元，而 2019 年為 0.70 美元。

And that concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, now we would like to open the call to questions from the audience.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。接線員，現在我們想開始聽眾提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Gary Zhou with Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Gary Zhou。

Congratulations on the strong results. I have 2 questions. So firstly is on the polysilicon price outlook. So we noticed that there has been a significant polysilicon price hike after Chinese New Year, so from around RMB 90 to around RMB 110 last week. So can management share with us your latest view on the near-term polysilicon price outlook for the next few weeks? And if you can also share your estimate for the second quarter this year and also the second half of this year. And the second question is on the inventory. So wondering if management can share with us the company's latest polysilicon inventory. And if you have also some information on the inventory level to your competitors and also to the wafer companies.

祝賀你取得了優異的成績。我有兩個問題。首先是多晶矽價格前景。所以我們注意到農曆新年後多晶矽價格大幅上漲，上週從 90 元左右漲到 110 元左右。那麼管理層能否與我們分享您對未來幾週近期多晶矽價格前景的最新看法？如果你也可以分享你對今年第二季度和今年下半年的估計。第二個問題是關於庫存。所以想知道管理層是否可以與我們分享公司最新的多晶矽庫存。如果你也有一些關於你的競爭對手和晶圓公司的庫存水平的信息。

Gary, I think, first of all, I think the price. Basically, I think January, our average, including the value-adding tax, I think our selling ASP is around RMB 80 per kg. February around RMB 81. Right now, I think -- in March, I think we're selling around the -- higher than RMB 100, okay? Basically, I think we see the selling price go up. And especially this week, we think we're selling our products around RMB 120 per kg. So equivalent, I think, if you view without value-adding tax is more than higher than $16 per kg.

加里，我認為，首先，我認為價格。基本上，我認為 1 月份，我們的平均水平，包括增值稅，我認為我們的銷售平均售價約為每公斤 80 元人民幣。 2 月份大約 81 元人民幣。現在，我認為 - 在 3 月份，我認為我們的售價大約 - 高於 100 元人民幣，好嗎？基本上，我認為我們看到售價上漲。尤其是本週，我們認為我們的產品售價約為每公斤 120 元人民幣。因此，我認為，如果不考慮增值稅，則相當於每公斤超過 16 美元。

We see the reasons because we see this year didn't have any capacity adding to the polysilicon supply side. But the demand side, really, we see a lot of, I think, the wafer expansion projects is under -- on the road. As you see that, recently, we just announced 2 long-term contracts. One is with Zhonghuan. Another one is with Wuxi Shangji. Basically, those 2 long-term contracts is most -- I think, majority, 90% quantity is focused on 2022, 2023, 2024. This year actually is not too much. So you can see right now, people is more even in a concern even to next year -- middle of next year, possible demand is still higher than the supply.

我們看到原因是因為我們看到今年多晶矽供應方面沒有任何產能增加。但在需求方面，我們看到很多，我認為，晶圓擴張項目正在進行中。如您所見，最近，我們剛剛宣布了 2 份長期合同。一是與中環。另一家是無錫商機。基本上，那兩個長期合同是最多的——我認為，大多數，90% 的數量都集中在 2022、2023、2024 年。今年實際上並不算太多。所以你現在可以看到，人們甚至更加擔心明年 - 明年年中，可能的需求仍然高於供應。

So as we see the polysilicon price continue every week go up. And we believe, I think, second quarter, the ASP should be around RMB 120 to RMB 130 per kg. It's possible. And for second half of the year, I think, definitely, we believe, should be above RMB 120 per kg. And I can't project how far away. But as we say today, polysilicon cost account for in module -- okay, for in module only around 15% to 16%. Accounted for total, I think, projects cost may be around 7% to 8% is total lower glasses cost.

因此，我們看到多晶矽價格每週都在上漲。我們相信，我認為，第二季度，平均售價應在每公斤 120 至 130 元人民幣左右。這是可能的。而對於今年下半年，我認為，我們相信，絕對應該在每公斤 120 元人民幣以上。我無法預測多遠。但正如我們今天所說，多晶矽成本在模塊中的佔比——好吧，在模塊中只佔 15% 到 16% 左右。佔總數，我認為，項目成本可能在7%到8%左右，是降低眼鏡成本的總和。

Glass today costs accounted for almost 18%, 19% of the module. So we do not believe, I think, polysilicon price go up little will affect, I think, the ending product module price too much. And today, I think -- the major problem, I think, maybe -- the major price come back is around like RMB 1.7. We still think it's salable. The market is still there, especially in China. So we believe -- I think the polysilicon price will continue maybe first half of next year still came above, I think, between above -- around like RMB 100 per kg.

今天的玻璃成本幾乎占到18%，模塊佔19%。所以我們不相信，我認為，多晶矽價格上漲很少會影響，我認為，最終產品模塊價格太多。而今天，我認為 - 主要問題，我認為，也許 - 主要價格回歸大約為 1.7 元人民幣。我們仍然認為它是可銷售的。市場還在，尤其是在中國。所以我們相信——我認為多晶矽價格可能會繼續上漲，明年上半年可能仍會高於，我認為，高於——大約每公斤 100 元人民幣。

And after the middle of next year, I cannot project. It's dependent on the ending market and also how fast, I think, the wafer expansion and how fast the polysilicon can be adding -- supply chain adding there. As we see that, next year, LONGi capacity can ending, I think why is over 35,000 tons, then Tongwei maybe around 80,000 tons. And we also see Asian Silicon and the Xinte, based upon their IPO, they also planning expansion. So their capacity maybe were adding by the end of next year.

明年年中之後，我無法預測。這取決於終端市場以及我認為晶圓擴張的速度以及多晶矽的添加速度——供應鏈的添加速度。正如我們所看到的那樣，明年隆基的產能可以結束，我認為為什麼超過35,000噸，然後通威可能在80,000噸左右。我們還看到亞洲矽和新特，基於他們的IPO，他們也計劃擴張。所以他們的產能可能會在明年年底增加。

So really, we do not think too much capacity supply even next year. Maybe the year 2023, I think the capacity come back a little more. So I'm not giving the year beyond the next year. So basically, what I think is the silicon supply and demand very tight this year. The situation will continue to middle of next year. The inventory, let Ming answer the second question.

所以說真的，我們認為即使明年也不會有太多的產能供應。也許到 2023 年，我認為容量會恢復更多。所以我不會給出明年之後的年份。所以基本上，我認為今年的矽供需非常緊張。這種情況將持續到明年年中。盤點，讓明回答第二個問題。

Okay. Gary, so let me discuss quickly about our inventory level. So I think you remember at the end of Q3 because of a delay of order from a particular customer, I think, our inventory was a bit higher than normal. So it was running more than 3 weeks inventory at that time. I think during Q4, as demand improved and orders normalized, especially in December with very strong orders from our customers, so inventory has reduced to less than 2 weeks, approximately 10 days or so. So that's already a normalized level of inventory. And then by now, our inventory is running at very lean levels. So it's less than a week of inventory right now, which is really the minimum level that we need to prepare products for the different grades and to ship to different customers. So we're running at basically our minimum level of inventory right now of less than a week. And I think across the industry and also our customers, we're also seeing very lean inventory levels currently.

好的。加里，讓我快速討論一下我們的庫存水平。所以我想你記得在第三季度末，由於特定客戶的訂單延遲，我認為我們的庫存比正常情況要高一些。所以它當時運行了超過 3 週的庫存。我認為在第四季度，隨著需求的改善和訂單的正常化，尤其是在 12 月份，我們客戶的訂單非常強勁，所以庫存減少到不到 2 週，大約 10 天左右。所以這已經是正常的庫存水平。然後到現在為止，我們的庫存處於非常精簡的水平。所以現在庫存不到一周，這確實是我們為不同等級準備產品並運送給不同客戶所需的最低水平。因此，我們現在基本上處於不到一周的最低庫存水平。而且我認為在整個行業以及我們的客戶中，我們目前也看到非常精簡的庫存水平。

The next question is from Karl Liu of CICC.

下一個問題來自中金公司的Karl Liu。

I've only got 2 questions. First, yes, I think we have no doubt about the potential price uptrend this year. But we are seeing some current change on the demand weakness, especially in March. I think we have some channel checks showing the modules company has already cut their capacity utilization originally. So could you please give us some colors on the current market dynamic? And do we think the current price growth trend will be slowed down? Or do we expect the price to stabilize recently? I mean, we have no doubt about the whole price trend this year, but how about recently? So do we expect that change in the modules will have some pressures on us?

我只有兩個問題。首先，是的，我認為我們對今年的潛在價格上漲趨勢毫無疑問。但我們看到需求疲軟的一些當前變化，尤其是在 3 月份。我認為我們有一些渠道檢查顯示模塊公司最初已經削減了他們的產能利用率。那麼，您能給我們一些關於當前市場動態的顏色嗎？我們是否認為當前的價格增長趨勢會放緩？還是我們預計近期價格會企穩？我的意思是，我們對今年的整個價格趨勢毫無疑問，但最近呢？那麼我們是否期望模塊的變化會對我們產生一些壓力？

And the second question is about the prepayment. So we know we have some prepayment we signed with customer. So could you please share that prepayment percentage we have signed with the customer or maybe just some colors that we can -- for example, how much money we can -- a down payment we can receive when we sign a contract with our customers? That's all my question.

第二個問題是關於預付款。所以我們知道我們有一些與客戶簽署的預付款。那麼，您能否分享我們與客戶簽訂的預付款百分比，或者我們可以提供的一些顏色 - 例如，我們可以支付多少錢 - 我們與客戶簽訂合同時可以收到的預付款？這就是我的全部問題。

Karl, I think -- first question, I think, today, basically, okay, the module market, I think the European -- Europe and the U.S. market is still is very hot. Like I was telling, I think, you -- obviously, we're still selling around $0.25, I think, per watt still is good. The only thing so right now in China, I think, right now, is increased to 1.65, 1.7, and look like a little slide. The reason is because everybody waiting for NEA, the 2 conference meeting, the new policy. But definitely, I think after middle of April, definitely, I think China demand will be quickly come back. That's, I think, for certain.

卡爾，我認為 - 第一個問題，我認為，今天，基本上，好的，模塊市場，我認為歐洲 - 歐洲和美國市場仍然很熱。就像我說的，我想，你——顯然，我們的售價仍在 0.25 美元左右，我認為，每瓦仍然不錯。目前在中國唯一如此，我認為，現在，增加到 1.65、1.7，看起來像一個小幻燈片。原因是大家在等NEA，2號會議，新政策。但肯定的是，我認為在 4 月中旬之後，我認為中國的需求肯定會迅速恢復。我認為，這是肯定的。

But to answer your question, yes, I think the module selling maybe will slow down in China within 1 month. But if you look at the inventory, maybe some inventories pipe sale. And the reason why, because I think right now, wafer today almost -- mono wafer, no inventory, as we told. I think then also some -- I think some company, okay, I think keep -- in order to keep a high gross margin, basically, they continue to increase the wafer prices. I'm not sure how long they can continue doing that. Okay.

但要回答你的問題，是的，我認為中國的模塊銷售可能會在 1 個月內放緩。但是如果你看一下庫存，也許有一些庫存在出售。以及為什麼，因為我現在認為，今天的晶圓幾乎 - 正如我們所說的那樣，單晶圓，沒有庫存。我認為還有一些 - 我認為一些公司，好吧，我認為保持 - 為了保持高毛利率，基本上，他們繼續提高晶圓價格。我不確定他們可以繼續這樣做多久。好的。

Basically, what I say in some segments because on balanced gross margin and kind of pass-through through the middle industry, what I say is the wafer sale and the module, and, of course, maybe temporary, the module, I think, selling maybe a little slowdown. But for further -- for the future, you see, I think a module just like the building, as you build up, you always can sellable, okay, only is the price. So finally, you will selling the module maybe at a lower price, right? The only thing is who is going to lose money or not say lose money, maybe adjust their gross margin in certain area, you see, to lower down their gross margin.

基本上，我在某些細分市場中所說的是因為平衡的毛利率和中間產業的傳遞，我所說的是晶圓銷售和模塊，當然，我認為可能是暫時的，模塊銷售也許有點放緩。但是對於未來，你看，我認為一個模塊就像建築物一樣，隨著你的建造，你總是可以出售，好吧，唯一的就是價格。所以最後，你可能會以更低的價格出售模塊，對吧？唯一的問題是誰會賠錢或不說賠錢，也許會調整他們在某些領域的毛利率，你看，以降低他們的毛利率。

So what I think is, in the future, wafer gross margin should be go down and should be -- the module should be -- gross margin should be reasonable to reach a reasonable margin to push the module, continue to sell it. So I'm not worried about -- just I said, you see, even polysilicon price continue to go up CNY 10, CNY 20 per kg, but that affect the final product only little. If we increase RMB 10 per kg, maybe only increase the module price 0.5%, 3% -- 0.3%. It's not affect too much. The effect is less than the glasses prices right now affects the module. So what I think is because of demand-supply, the market mechanism, for us, because we are chemistry industry, it's hard long-term investments. It's an intensive capital investment. So it's hard to, in time -- one time to increase the capacity.

所以我認為，在未來，晶圓毛利率應該下降，並且應該是——模塊應該——毛利率應該是合理的，以達到合理的利潤率來推動模塊，繼續銷售它。所以我並不擔心——我只是說，你看，即使多晶矽價格繼續上漲每公斤 10 元、20 元，但這對最終產品的影響很小。如果每公斤漲10元，可能組件價格只漲0.5%、3%——0.3%。影響不大。效果不及現在眼鏡價格對模塊的影響。所以我認為是因為供需，市場機制，對我們來說，因為我們是化學工業，所以很難長期投資。這是一項密集的資本投資。所以很難及時——一次增加容量。

So as you know that, the demand-supply is there. So even this year, all the polysilicon produce only maybe can support, I think, around 150 gigawatts. So -- but as you can see, the wafer capacity continue expansion by the end of this year, in China, maybe reach to more than 400 gigawatts. So we don't know basically. But I can tell you is the market is there. China will continue to go up. Even NEA today -- the Head of the NEA just said, we will detail lay down the policy and to encourage, I think, wind, solar industry and encourage each provincial level to continue to develop. The adding together should be more than our original planning, the national wide, maybe 60, 80 gigawatts.

如您所知，需求供應就在那裡。所以即使在今年，我認為所有的多晶矽產量也只能支持大約 150 吉瓦。所以——但正如你所看到的，到今年年底，中國的晶圓產能將繼續擴張，可能會達到 400 多吉瓦。所以我們基本上不知道。但我可以告訴你，市場就在那裡。中國還會繼續往上走。即使是今天的國家能源局——國家能源局局長剛才也說過，我們將詳細制定政策，鼓勵風能、太陽能產業，並鼓勵各省級繼續發展。加起來應該超過我們原來的規劃，全國大概有60、80吉瓦。

So I think that's -- I think I'm very confident, I think, of China market. Secondly is the prepayments. We signed, I think, 2 long-term contracts. One is with Zhonghuan. And Zhonghuan has a contract signed -- actually the Zhonghuan has signed before Chinese New Year. So -- we based on that time, I think we collect 5% of the current price -- total contract value. And for Shangji, basically, we -- based on right now, I think the week before last week, the average selling price, we collect 6%, I think, the down payment. So we are going to sign another contract, also continue to keep in the 6%.

所以我認為那是——我認為我對中國市場非常有信心。其次是預付款。我認為，我們簽署了 2 份長期合同。一是與中環。和中環簽了合同——其實中環是在過年之前籤的。所以——我們基於那個時間，我認為我們收取當前價格的 5%——總合同價值。對於 Shangji，基本上，我們——基於現在，我認為是前一周的平均售價，我們收取 6%，我認為是首付。所以我們要再簽一份合同，同樣繼續保持在6%。

So as you can see that, we -- the only things we signed with the contract, majority is for the next 3 years. It's not for this year, okay? This year, we're just going to squeeze maybe beginning inventory. Maybe at the end of the year, you see our 4B or even December, maybe we'll book some next year, January quantity. There are some contracts, we have the adjustments, 10% up and down. So we still can, I think, do something, I think, to help some company, especially, like I think some company they are sizable in the future. And our strategy is in the future, 1 client cannot account for more than 20% of our sales.

因此，正如您所看到的，我們 - 我們與合同簽署的唯一內容，大部分是未來 3 年。這不是今年的，好嗎？今年，我們可能只是要壓縮期初庫存。也許在今年年底，您會看到我們的 4B 甚至 12 月，也許我們會在明年 1 月預訂一些數量。有一些合同，我們有調整，上下浮動 10%。所以我們仍然可以，我認為，做一些事情，我認為，幫助一些公司，特別是，像我認為一些公司，他們在未來相當大。而我們的策略是，未來1個客戶不能占我們銷售額的20%以上。

Yes. I actually have a follow-up question on your outlook. So it's interesting. We have noticed that the wafer price has always like banding with the polysilicon price. When the polysilicon price go up, the wafer price always follow up and go up. And -- but if we look at the capacity, should see some, like, yes the overcapacity or the competition on the wafer side. But actually, in the price level, we didn't see that. And so could you give us some color on that? Do you think it's just something will definitely happen, but it just not happened? Or do you think it's because currently the sales diversity is not big enough? So we still have -- I mean, the whole industry, the polysilicon industry do have the sales contract with the leading player. So actually, the second-tier players cannot get enough the polysilicon. So even they have planning to build up more capacity, but actually, they cannot produce more wafer. What do you think about it?

是的。我實際上對你的前景有一個後續問題。所以這很有趣。我們注意到，矽片價格與多晶矽價格一直呈波浪狀。當多晶矽價格上漲時，矽片價格總是跟隨上漲。而且 - 但如果我們看一下產能，應該會看到一些，比如，是的產能過剩或晶圓方面的競爭。但實際上，在價格水平上，我們並沒有看到這一點。那麼你能給我們一些顏色嗎？是不是覺得只是肯定會發生，只是沒有發生而已？還是您認為這是因為目前的銷售多樣性還不夠大？所以我們仍然有 - 我的意思是，整個行業，多晶矽行業確實與領先企業簽訂了銷售合同。所以實際上，二線玩家無法獲得足夠的多晶矽。因此，即使他們計劃建立更多的產能，但實際上，他們無法生產更多的晶圓。你怎麼看待這件事？

I think as the module assembling gross margin right now is lower, so it's not discouraged, I think, the module sales in China, temporary. But if you look at the sale, I think, inventory is there. I think some company, maybe the big -- in the history, they almost monopulate -- monopoly the wafer capacity. But in the future, right now, they're vertically integrated. If they can selling their wafer all in the module, I think it's okay. But if they continue to increase the price of the wafer, if they kind of selling the module, what's the next step? They have to reduce the module -- wafer price, right? So I think that the time -- only the time can tell you. So I'm not like to do any comments. I think the stock price will tell everybody, right?

我認為由於現在的模塊組裝毛利率較低，所以我認為中國的模塊銷售並不令人氣餒，只是暫時的。但如果你看一下銷售情況，我想，存貨就在那裡。我認為一些公司，也許是大公司——在歷史上，他們幾乎壟斷了——壟斷了晶圓產能。但在未來，現在，它們是垂直整合的。如果他們可以在模塊中銷售他們的晶圓，我認為還可以。但如果他們繼續提高晶圓的價格，如果他們有點賣模塊，下一步是什麼？他們必須降低模塊——晶圓價格，對嗎？所以我認為時間——只有時間可以告訴你。所以我不想做任何評論。我想股價會告訴大家，對吧？

Next question is from Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners.

下一個問題來自 ROTH Capital Partners 的 Philip Shen。

The first one is just a follow-up on the outlook for China's demand. Can you share what you think the overall demand will be this year? Do you think it will be 60 gigawatts? Or do you think it's 80 gigawatts, for example? And perhaps talk about what that split might be by quarter?

第一個只是對中國需求前景的跟進。你能分享一下你認為今年的整體需求嗎？你認為它會是 60 吉瓦嗎？或者你認為它是 80 吉瓦，例如？也許談談按季度劃分的情況？

Philip, I think I'm very optimistic about China, even though the -- I think the dropped didn't say any target for national level, but I think it's encouraged, I think, the -- each provincial to develop, I think, their own targets. Then today, in the 2 conferences in Beijing today, the Head of the NEA basically sets the target there, I think around -- I think, 1,200 gigawatts in next 10 years. So as you can see that, I'm pretty sure, especially the distributed -- the rooftop and the distributed, I think, power -- solar power plants in China is continue to develop. I think this year, definitely, should be above 60, even above 80 gigawatts.

菲利普，我認為我對中國非常樂觀，儘管 - 我認為下降沒有說明國家層面的任何目標，但我認為它鼓勵，我認為 - 每個省級發展，我認為，他們自己的目標。然後今天，在今天在北京舉行的 2 場會議上，國家能源局局長基本上在那裡設定了目標，我想是——我認為，未來 10 年達到 1,200 吉瓦。所以正如你所看到的，我很確定，尤其是分佈式——屋頂和分佈式，我認為，電力——中國的太陽能發電廠正在繼續發展。我覺得今年肯定要在60以上，甚至80吉瓦以上。

Great. And I think you guys are very -- I mean, fully booked for 2021. For 2022, I believe, with the new contracts, you might be fully booked as well. So would love to get some additional color on how you're thinking about capacity expansion? And clearly, with the channel listing, you're going to raise money for the Phase 4B expansion. Can you talk about the expectations for CapEx for Phase 4B? I believe it's maybe $13,000 -- or sorry, $13,500 per metric ton.

偉大的。而且我認為你們非常 - 我的意思是，2021 年已經訂滿了。我相信，對於 2022 年，有了新合同，你們也可能會訂滿。那麼，想知道您是如何考慮容量擴展的嗎？很明顯，通過頻道列表，您將為 4B 階段的擴展籌集資金。你能談談對 4B 階段資本支出的期望嗎？我相信它可能是 13,000 美元——或者對不起，每公噸 13,500 美元。

RMB 3.5 billion.

35億元人民幣。

Yes. Feel free to give in renminbi, but do you expect the Phase 4B to be similar? Or do you -- or do we have the unit CapEx right for Phase 4b? And then beyond 4B, what are you thinking about now? Where do you think the location could be for the expansion? And what kind of CapEx could that be?

是的。可以隨意捐贈人民幣，但您認為 Phase 4B 會類似嗎？或者你 - 或者我們是否有適合第 4b 階段的單位資本支出？然後超越4B，你現在在想什麼？您認為擴建的地點在哪裡？那會是什麼樣的資本支出？

Okay. I think, Philip, the only thing I can tell you is we are continuing to expansion. As you see right now, the information, even right now, we're still not listing IPO, but we use our own money already starting 4B. 4B design capacity is 35,000 tons, but that is integrated to our existing, I think, plants. So we think the actual output should be 40,000 tons. Basically, this year, we've already given guidance, 80,000 to 81,000 metric tons. So next year, I think -- it's not the final. I think we can see if we can climb -- ramp the 4B capacity quickly, I think next year our plan, okay, is going to increase capacity 50%, reach to 120,000 tons for next year.

好的。我想，菲利普，我唯一能告訴你的就是我們正在繼續擴張。正如你現在看到的信息，即使是現在，我們仍然沒有上市 IPO，但我們已經用我們自己的錢開始 4B。 4B 的設計能力是 35,000 噸，但我認為這是與我們現有工廠相結合的。所以我們認為實際產量應該是4萬噸。基本上，今年我們已經給出了 80,000 到 81,000 公噸的指導。所以明年，我想——這不是決賽。我想我們可以看看我們是否可以快速提高 4B 產能，我認為明年我們的計劃是將產能增加 50%，明年達到 120,000 噸。

So that's, I think, 2 years plan. For the -- beyond the 2 years, we also -- as you see there, we are planning right now the IPO in China STAR Market. We -- so far, we don't know the valuation. But we're very optimistic, and we can raise -- I think, right now, the estimate is RMB 5 billion. I think if we can reach more than that, definitely, I think, use our own current free cash, then this year, I think, the net profit plus, I think, the depreciation or EBITDA, whatever, we think we can continue to planning expansion. That we cannot tell you how much and where. We are looking -- I said, beyond Xinjiang, we are looking at other places right now. And maybe we are looking another 40 or even 80 or even 1,010 new plant. So I think that -- we're waiting for, basically, based on the proceeds of the IPO, the timing and also the market situation.

所以，我認為，這是 2 年計劃。對於 - 超過 2 年，我們也 - 正如你在那裡看到的那樣，我們現在正在計劃在中國 STAR 市場進行 IPO。我們 - 到目前為止，我們不知道估值。但我們非常樂觀，我們可以籌集——我想，現在，估計是 50 億元人民幣。我認為，如果我們能達到更多，我認為肯定會使用我們自己當前的自由現金，那麼今年，我認為，淨利潤加上折舊或 EBITDA，無論如何，我們認為我們可以繼續規劃擴張。我們無法告訴您數量和地點。我們正在尋找——我說過，除了新疆，我們現在正在尋找其他地方。也許我們正在尋找另外 40 家甚至 80 家甚至 1,010 家新工廠。所以我認為——我們基本上是在等待，基於 IPO 的收益、時間和市場情況。

Great. Can you give us a little bit more color on the China listing in terms of timing? When do you expect that to be -- the CSRC to give you the final approval? And then one last question. As it relates to your cost structure, I think you mentioned that it went up a little bit in Q4 because of currency. What's your expectation for cost per watt in Q1? And then what is that -- how does that trend in 2021?

偉大的。你能在時間方面給我們更多關於中國上市的顏色嗎？你預計中國證監會什麼時候會給你最終批准？然後是最後一個問題。由於它與您的成本結構有關，我想您提到第四季度由於貨幣的原因它略有上升。您對第一季度每瓦成本的預期是多少？那是什麼——2021 年的趨勢如何？

Okay. I'll leave the cost, I think, to our CFO, Ming. Basically, the IPO processing status in the -- maybe already mentioned that. So far, we already go through the February 2 -- the STAR Market Review Committee already approved. We are -- meet all the requirements for the listing and all the requirements. Right now, we are doing the registration. I think we are the first one, the U.S. company, right now listing the subsidiaries in China. So we believe we maybe can quickly registration by the end of this month. Then, hopefully, we can -- listing in China STAR Market by the end of April or beginning of May. That's right now the status.

好的。我想，我會將成本留給我們的首席財務官 Ming。基本上，IPO 處理狀態可能已經提到過。至此，我們已經通過了2月2日——科創板審核委員會已經批复。我們是——滿足上市的所有要求和所有要求。現在，我們正在進行註冊。我認為我們是第一家美國公司，現在在中國上市子公司。所以我們相信我們也許可以在本月底之前快速註冊。然後，希望我們能夠——在 4 月底或 5 月初在中國科創板上市。這就是現在的狀態。

Then also, I think I forget your first question about the 4B total investments. The 4B total investments because we are integrated to existing plants, so total investment is around RMB 3.5 billion. Our 4A total investment is around RMB 2.9 billion. So it's almost, I think, RMB 500 million, RMB 600 million increase. The increase because the capacity in some area, we are -- the capacity is higher than 35,000 tons, okay? So basically, while we are integrating the existing system, so we were syndicated, I think, after 4B down ensure the plant should be more than 120,000 tons of capacity, the actual output. Ming?

然後，我想我忘記了你關於 4B 總投資的第一個問題。 4B的總投資，因為我們是對現有廠房進行整合，所以總投資在35億左右。我們的4A總投資約29億元人民幣。所以我認為差不多是 5 億人民幣，增加 6 億人民幣。增加是因為某些地區的容量，我們是 - 容量高於 35,000 噸，好嗎？所以基本上，在我們整合現有系統的同時，我們進行了聯合，我認為，在 4B 下來之後確保工廠的實際產量應該超過 120,000 噸。明？

Okay. Phil, in terms of our cost structure, so for Q1, we're expecting our costs in terms of RMB to be roughly similar to our cost in Q4 and maybe just slightly higher because of higher silicon metal costs. And I think in terms of movements in U.S. dollar, I think, because of the current continued appreciation of RMB, I think there's -- we could see maybe a 3% to 4% increase in cost in U.S. dollar terms in Q1 relative to Q4 of last year. So that's what we're seeing right now.

好的。 Phil，就我們的成本結構而言，對於第一季度，我們預計我們的人民幣成本與第四季度的成本大致相似，並且由於矽金屬成本較高而可能略高。而且我認為就美元走勢而言，我認為，由於目前人民幣持續升值，我認為 - 我們可以看到第一季度相對於第四季度以美元計算的成本可能增加 3% 至 4%去年的。這就是我們現在所看到的。

Maybe because the U.S. government continues to issue like USD 1.9 trillion, so caused renminbi continue appreciation.

可能因為美國政府繼續發行1.9萬億美元，所以導致人民幣繼續升值。

Right. So that's for Q1. And Ming, what do you think about Q2, 3 and 4? What is the trend of the cost structure?

正確的。這就是第一季度。還有 Ming，你怎麼看 Q2、3 和 4？成本結構的趨勢如何？

Okay. We think costs for the remaining of the year should be similar. At least for Q2 and Q3 should be similar to Q1. And then costs should come down by Q4, assuming constant U.S. currency exchange rate.

好的。我們認為今年剩餘時間的成本應該相似。至少對於 Q2 和 Q3 應該類似於 Q1。假設美元匯率不變，到第四季度成本應該會下降。

But if the 4B totally ramp up, our costs will continue to at least cutting 5%.

但如果 4B 完全提升，我們的成本將繼續至少降低 5%。

Yes, 5% plus type of reduction on current cost.

是的，當前成本減少 5% 以上。

Next question is from Colin Yang with Daiwa Securities.

下一個問題來自大和證券的 Colin Yang。

This is Colin from Daiwa. My first question is a bit similar to Philip's because The Street, I think, has no concerns for another stellar earnings in 2021 because very limited capacity additions from the industry wide, but people start to worry about the post 2022, especially for the major competitors, including Tongwei and Xinte. They both announced a very aggressive capacity expansion plan. So do we worry about losing market share if we didn't expand in trending manner? So if we expected to announce another expansion plan, do we plan to aid it by another share placement by equity or so debt financing? So this is my first question. My second question is regarding the FBR method because as you may noticed, that there is quite different reviews on FBR from Tongwei and Sichuan Poly. So what is our view on FBR, including security cost extra?

這是大和的科林。我的第一個問題與 Philip 的有點相似，因為我認為華爾街並不擔心 2021 年的另一項出色收益，因為整個行業的產能增加非常有限，但人們開始擔心 2022 年後，尤其是主要競爭對手，包括通威和新特。他們都宣布了非常激進的產能擴張計劃。那麼，如果我們不按趨勢擴張，我們會擔心失去市場份額嗎？因此，如果我們預計會宣布另一項擴張計劃，我們是否計劃通過股權或債務融資進行另一次配股來幫助它？所以這是我的第一個問題。我的第二個問題是關於 FBR 方法，因為您可能已經註意到，通威和四川保利對 FBR 的評論有很大不同。那麼我們對 FBR 有何看法，包括額外的安全成本？

Colin, I think, for the first question, I'm not going to compare to Tongwei. I know Tongwei right now currently have, I think, at least 2 places expansion, around 80,000 tons. But you have to consider Tongwei also, I think, closed equity investments with, I think, other companies. For example, LONGi, I think Trina Solar. So basically, even by the year 2023, just like they claimed, their capacity is 290,000 tons. How much is sellable? We don't know. Because I think of which maybe more than 100,000 tons, they will use their own vertically integrated because they are going to do the wafer cell and even module, right?

Colin，我想，對於第一個問題，我不打算與通威進行比較。我知道通威目前至少有兩個地方擴建，大約 80,000 噸。但我認為，你還必須考慮通威與其他公司的股權投資。比如隆基，我覺得是天合光能。所以基本上，即使到 2023 年，就像他們聲稱的那樣，他們的產能也是 290,000 噸。能賣多少？我們不知道。因為我想到其中可能超過10萬噸，他們會用自己的垂直整合，因為他們要做矽片電池甚至組件，對吧？

So we, I think, right now, focus our expansion. We think it's reasonable. And based on our capital, I think, status, our cash flow status, and I think we're going to do the 4B expansion. So by the end of this year, we are going to, I think, put it into production. Hopefully, it can ramp up production by the end of this year. So I think next year, our capacity, almost 50% increase to 120,000 tons. We think is big, I think, increase to meet our clients' needs. As you can see right now, today, almost all big wafer producer signed long-term contracts with us. For example, LONGi, Jinko, Trina, Canadian Solar, I think [Chingo], even Shangji, Zhonghuan. I think we will announce another company pretty soon. So we right now almost signed those big clients next 2 to 3 years. So I think the relation -- strong relationship with the clients is not only the quantity, how much you can produce, but also the quality of the products.

所以我認為，我們現在專注於我們的擴張。我們認為這是合理的。基於我們的資本，我認為，狀態，我們的現金流狀況，我認為我們將進行 4B 擴張。所以到今年年底，我認為我們將把它投入生產。希望它能在今年年底前提高產量。所以我認為明年我們的產能將增加近 50%，達到 120,000 噸。我們認為很大，我認為，增加以滿足客戶的需求。正如您現在所看到的，今天，幾乎所有大型晶圓生產商都與我們簽訂了長期合同。比如隆基、晶科、天合、阿特斯，我覺得是[Chingo]，甚至尚集、中環。我想我們很快就會宣布另一家公司。所以我們現在幾乎簽下了未來 2 到 3 年的那些大客戶。所以我認為與客戶的關係——與客戶的牢固關係不僅在於數量，你能生產多少，還在於產品的質量。

So as you can see, our quality, our service, I think we're very confident in the future our expansion -- continued expansion and our clients' relationship. Secondly is for the, I think, FBR, we're not -- for us, I'm not going to go into comments another company, a Hong Kong listing company. They're doing FBR. But as you know that we are one of the most transparent company in terms of disclosing cost structure, products yield rate. However, we didn't see right now FBR, their cost structure, how much their cost? What's the yield rate? As we know that they have currently so already have like 10,000 metric tons production line. How much they produced? 200 tons 300 tons? We don't know. Second is we are not users of FBR polysilicon. However, we very pay attention to this issue with communication -- regular communication with our clients to share with our clients.

所以正如你所看到的，我們的質量，我們的服務，我認為我們對未來的擴張非常有信心 - 持續擴張和我們的客戶關係。其次是，我認為，FBR，我們不是——對我們來說，我不會評論另一家公司，一家香港上市公司。他們正在做 FBR。但正如你所知，就披露成本結構、產品良率而言，我們是最透明的公司之一。但是，我們現在沒有看到 FBR，他們的成本結構，他們的成本是多少？收益率是多少？據我們所知，他們目前已經擁有大約 10,000 公噸的生產線。他們生產了多少？ 200噸 300噸？我們不知道。其次是我們不是 FBR 多晶矽的用戶。但是，我們非常注重溝通這個問題——定期與客戶溝通，與客戶分享。

It's very clear that as of today, the quality of FBR polysilicon still has, I think, much room to improvement and to match the polysilicon made by our modified silicon Siemens technology. So I have no more comments on our competitor or even they say, substitute technology, revolutionary technology. So basically, as you can see that one of our clients -- most of our clients -- one of our clients, they claim they will invest FBR. They just signed long-term contracts with us, pay 6% of the down payments. So I think that's strong to improve 2 methods, which one is best.

很明顯，直到今天，我認為 FBR 多晶矽的質量仍有很大的改進空間，可以與我們的改性矽西門子技術製造的多晶矽相媲美。所以我不再評論我們的競爭對手，甚至他們說，替代技術，革命性技術。所以基本上，正如你所看到的，我們的一個客戶——我們的大多數客戶——我們的一個客戶，他們聲稱他們將投資 FBR。他們剛和我們簽了長期合同，付了6%的定金。所以我認為改進 2 種方法很重要，哪一種是最好的。

The next question is from Alan Hon with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Alan Hon。

I guess, like I have 2 minor questions here as most of the question is already answered. I noticed that in the fourth quarter last year, I mean, the realized price is around USD 10.8. If we are to like take the average from, say, PV InfoLink or Silicon China, it seems to us -- it seems to me that the average price would be slightly higher. Just wanted to understand why. Is it due to like we have a slightly higher sales volume in December when price was relatively lower?

我想，就像我在這裡有 2 個小問題一樣，因為大部分問題已經得到解答。我注意到去年第四季度，實際價格約為 10.8 美元。如果我們想從 PV InfoLink 或 Silicon China 取平均值，在我們看來，平均價格會略高一些。只是想了解為什麼。是不是因為我們12月的銷量略高，當時價格相對較低？

I think, Alan, I think most important, if you look our -- the structure of our product sale in Q4, we're selling -- I think our product is around 23,186 metric tons. Almost 100% were mono products. If we compare our Q3, we -- our product -- see, the mono product still is 98%. So basically, we're selling most is right now, I think, monosilicon. Then also, of which, we certainly mostly is the high-quality mono grade, I think, polysilicon. As you can see that even monosilicon classified, I think, right now is 4 products. So we are -- majority right now is selling the high supply. So that's why our ASP is higher, I think around like $10.80. So I think that's my answer. Basically, I think we will continue to enjoy that. The reason I said. We -- I think last -- in middle of last year, we adopted a major digital management. Even, let's say, in the deposit processing, we used [Symvax] to do the AI calculation -- AI, I think, the technology. So right now, our monosilicon products, I think every month we produced is above 99%.

我認為，艾倫，我認為最重要的是，如果你看看我們的 - 我們在第四季度的產品銷售結構，我們正在銷售 - 我認為我們的產品約為 23,186 公噸。幾乎 100% 是單晶產品。如果我們比較我們的第三季度，我們——我們的產品——看，單晶產品仍然是 98%。所以基本上，我認為我們現在賣得最多的是單晶矽。然後，其中，我們當然主要是高質量的單晶級，我認為，多晶矽。正如你所看到的，即使是單晶矽分類，我認為，現在也是 4 種產品。所以我們 - 現在大多數人都在出售高供應量。這就是我們的平均售價更高的原因，我認為大約在 10.80 美元左右。所以我想這就是我的答案。基本上，我認為我們會繼續享受它。我說的原因。我們——我想最後——在去年年中，我們採用了一項重要的數字管理。甚至，比方說，在存款處理中，我們使用 [Symvax] 進行人工智能計算——人工智能，我認為是技術。所以現在，我們的單晶矽產品，我認為我們每個月生產的產品都在 99% 以上。

And just follow-up to what Longgen said. I think, Alan, I think you're right, in Q4 was a little bit unique, and we did saw more volumes in December than during the month of October or November. I think part of the reason was one -- some of our customers were taking advantage of very attractive pricing at the time. And also, they were preparing for building up additional volumes for production during the Chinese New Year. Yes, so that's where the ASP came in.

只是跟進 Longgen 所說的內容。我想，艾倫，我認為你是對的，第四季度有點獨特，我們在 12 月的交易量確實比 10 月或 11 月多。我認為部分原因是——我們的一些客戶當時正在利用非常有吸引力的價格。此外，他們還準備在農曆新年期間增加產量。是的，這就是 ASP 出現的地方。

Got you. And my second question and also my last one is that I noticed in your other operating income has declined from USD 5.5 million in 2019 to USD 0.2 million. I mean looking at periods like years how it trends, it usually doesn't trend to almost 0. So I just wanted to get a sense of why over there.

明白了我的第二個問題也是最後一個問題是，我注意到你們的其他營業收入從 2019 年的 550 萬美元下降到 20 萬美元。我的意思是看看幾年之類的趨勢如何，它通常不會趨向於幾乎為 0。所以我只是想了解為什麼在那裡。

Okay. So other operating income historically consist -- is most of, for example, R&D grants and technology grants from various government agencies, okay? And for this stage it so happened that these were less than previous years, okay? And actually, I think, for future periods, we would expect levels that actually would be more similar to the -- our current year, the lower levels than previous years.

好的。因此，歷史上其他營業收入包括 - 例如來自各個政府機構的研發補助金和技術補助金的大部分，好嗎？而對於這個階段，碰巧這些比往年少，好嗎？實際上，我認為，對於未來時期，我們預計實際水平將與我們今年更相似，低於前幾年的水平。

Limited to the current year, but not the previous years.

僅限於當年，但不限於前幾年。

Not the previous years, yes.

不是前幾年，是的。

The next question is from Chao Ji with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的Chao Ji。

I remember you said that part of your R&D in 2020 was spent on the research of N-type product. So can you please share with some color in terms of progress over N-type poly?

我記得你說你2020年的研發有一部分花在了N型產品的研究上。那麼能否請您分享一些顏色在 N 型多晶矽方面的進展？

Okay. So basically, we are doing R&D to improve our purity levels because the N-type requirements are much more stringent than the standard mono-type levels. And right now, because of the strong demand from our customers, so we are optimizing our overall production for the mono-type polysilicon. But we do expect starting -- effectively starting this year and through the next, say, 2 years that the demand for N-type wafer and translating to N-type poly will increase over this time. So we are doing R&D efforts to increase the share of N-type poly from our production. And one of the key goal is to increase the level of production in terms of percentage and at the same time without a significant impact to our production costs. So that's our current target right now.

好的。所以基本上，我們正在進行研發以提高我們的純度水平，因為 N 型要求比標准單晶型水平嚴格得多。而現在，由於客戶的強烈需求，我們正在優化單晶多晶矽的整體生產。但我們確實預計從今年開始——有效地從今年開始到明年，比如說，2 年內，對 N 型晶圓和轉化為 N 型多晶矽的需求將在這段時間內增加。因此，我們正在進行研發工作，以增加我們生產中 N 型多晶矽的份額。關鍵目標之一是按百分比提高生產水平，同時不會對我們的生產成本產生重大影響。這就是我們目前的目標。

The next question is from Tony Fei with BOCI.

下一個問題來自 BOCI 的 Tony Fei。

My first question is regarding your 1,000 tons semi-grade capacity. I understand it's at a very early stage right now. But can you share what is your expectation regarding the quality and ASP and maybe addressable market regarding this project? And will it be commissioned at the same time with Phase 4B? Second question regarding your maintenance schedule this year. Which quarter will it take place? And how much production volume would it have impact on that specific quarter?

我的第一個問題是關於您的 1,000 噸半級產能。我知道它現在處於非常早期的階段。但是您能否分享您對該項目的質量和 ASP 以及潛在市場的期望？它會與 4B 階段同時投入使用嗎？第二個問題是關於你們今年的維護計劃。它將在哪個季度舉行？它會對那個特定季度產生多少產量影響？

Okay. I think first question about the 1,000 metric tons of semiconductor-grade polysilicon, this is also in our IPO proceeds. It's based on the IPO success. I think it's a time we think -- it's a time we are going to starting doing that production line. Basically, we will joint venture with one of the -- I think I can't announce the name, okay, very famous, I think, downstream semiconductor wafer producer, continue together to do the projects. And our end is from the highest quality, the polysilicon is (foreign language). I think the polysilicon should be the highest, basically, right now is -- should above 12 inches wafer -- semiconductor wafer quality.

好的。我認為第一個問題是關於 1,000 公噸半導體級多晶矽，這也在我們的 IPO 收益中。它基於首次公開募股的成功。我認為現在是我們思考的時候了——是時候我們開始做那條生產線了。基本上，我們將與其中一家合資——我想我不能公佈名字，好吧，非常有名，我想，下游半導體晶圓生產商，繼續一起做項目。而我們的終點是來自最高質量，多晶矽是（外語）。我認為多晶矽應該是最高的，基本上，現在是——應該在12英寸晶圓以上——半導體晶圓質量。

So we went from top to down. Rather than our competitor, I think (inaudible) I think water -- they are failed because they are starting from bottom, I think, lower-quality semiconductor. So basically, I think we have the planning. And it depends on right now, the -- I think proceeds from the IPO and when we're going to be successfully listing. Definitely, we will announce that at that time. Second is the annual maintenance. Annual maintenance mostly will happen, I think, in the third quarter. And just a regular -- I think that will not affect right now in our guidance for this year, 80,000 to 81,000, the output is already considering the annual maintenance.

所以我們從上到下。而不是我們的競爭對手，我認為（聽不清）我認為水 - 他們失敗了，因為他們從底部開始，我認為，低質量的半導體。所以基本上，我認為我們已經有了計劃。這取決於現在——我認為 IPO 的收益以及我們何時成功上市。當然，我們會在那個時候宣布。二是年度保養。我認為，年度維護主要發生在第三季度。只是一個常規——我認為這不會影響我們今年的指導，80,000 到 81,000，產量已經在考慮年度維護。

The next question is from Dora Liu with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Dora Liu。

I guess most of my questions have been asked. So I'll just follow up with 2 minor questions. And the first one is related to our long-term contracts. So could you share with us what is the percentage of our 2021 production volume, which have been secured by the long-term contracts? And the second one is more related to the financial statements. I noticed that the note receivables in 2020 has dropped significantly. So could you share with us the reason?

我想我的大部分問題都被問到了。所以我只會跟進 2 個小問題。第一個與我們的長期合同有關。那麼您能否與我們分享我們 2021 年產量中有多少百分比是通過長期合同獲得的？第二個與財務報表更相關。我注意到2020年的應收票據下降明顯。那你能和我們分享一下原因嗎？

Okay. Dora, I think I answered your first question. Basically, right now, we signed 2 clients, that was Wuxi Shangji. Then another long-term contract with another 5 major wafer producer. I think we booked almost 100% 2021 capacity. The only thing we can continue maybe -- we will sign another contract as soon as just maybe second half of the year we can squeeze some little quantity for the contract then to book, the year 2022, '23, '24. So basically, my answer is 2021 the output, 80,000 tons, almost 100% booked. Then second question, I think, about -- I think our CFO, Ming, will answer that.

好的。多拉，我想我回答了你的第一個問題。基本上，現在我們簽了兩個客戶，就是無錫商機。然後又與另外5家主要晶圓生產商簽訂了另一份長期合同。我認為我們預訂了幾乎 100% 的 2021 年產能。我們唯一可以繼續的事情可能是——我們將在今年下半年盡快簽署另一份合同，我們可以為合同擠出一些數量，然後在 2022 年、'23、'24 年預訂。所以基本上，我的答案是 2021 年的產量，80,000 噸，幾乎 100% 被預訂。那麼第二個問題，我想，關於 - 我認為我們的首席財務官明會回答這個問題。

Okay. So actually, the note receivables number came down. So during the end of the year, we actually paid down a number of our Chinese bank loans. One source of the funding is from the notes receivables. We converted it to pay down Chinese bank loans. So that's why you saw the balance came down.

好的。所以實際上，應收票據數量下降了。所以在年底，我們實際上還清了一些中國銀行的貸款。資金來源之一是應收票據。我們將其轉換為償還中國銀行貸款。所以這就是你看到餘額下降的原因。

The next question is from Robin Xiao with CMBI.

下一個問題來自 CMBI 的 Robin Xiao。

I would like to ask about the customers' inventory level for polysilicon. Do you think that your clients are building up inventory in view of upcoming supply shortage? This is my first question.

想問一下客戶多晶矽的庫存情況。鑑於即將到來的供應短缺，您是否認為您的客戶正在增加庫存？這是我的第一個問題。

Okay. First of all, I'm not sure our clients build inventory or not. But basically, you see our clients is major player right now in the wafer industry. As you can see LONGi, Zhonghuan, Jinko, I think -- I believe -- I don't think they build inventory on the wafer segment. I believe they're selling own -- either sell their own -- even Shangji sell their own products or the integrated to sell module to selling the module. So basically, to me, as I just said, right now, this year, total polysilicon capacity only can support 150 or 160 maybe gigawatts final products. So we're maybe making some efforts to import some polysilicon. I think that's there.

好的。首先，我不確定我們的客戶是否建立庫存。但基本上，您會看到我們的客戶現在是晶圓行業的主要參與者。正如你所見，隆基股份、中環股份、晶科股份，我認為——我相信——我認為他們不會在晶圓領域建立庫存。我相信他們是在賣自己的——要么賣自己的——甚至商機賣自己的產品，要么集成賣模塊來賣模塊。所以基本上，對我來說，正如我剛才所說，今年，多晶矽總產能只能支持 150 或 160 吉瓦的最終產品。所以我們可能正在努力進口一些多晶矽。我想就在那裡。

So maybe last year, some inventory come out this year, the N products. So what I'd say is, today, I'm not -- even today, I think we don't think any inventory in polysilicon producer like Tongwei, I don't think any inventory -- but besides Tongwei, okay, I don't know because Tongwei is vertically integrated. So I don't think other companies have inventory silicon right now, is sitting there. And also, I don't think the wafer producer even today like Jinko or Zhonghuan, they pipe their wafer in the inventory. I don't think so.

所以也許去年，今年有一些庫存出來了，N個產品。所以我要說的是，今天，我不是——即使是今天，我認為我們不認為像通威這樣的多晶矽生產商有任何庫存，我認為沒有任何庫存——但除了通威，好吧，我不知道，因為通威是垂直整合的。所以我認為其他公司現在沒有庫存矽，就坐在那裡。而且，我認為即使在今天，晶圓生產商也不像晶科或中環那樣，他們將晶圓放入庫存中。我不這麼認為。

Okay. Very clear. My second question is about the payment terms. So given that the supply is quite tight and downstream is running short of polysilicon supply. So do we getting better payment terms for polysilicon sales?

好的。非常清楚。我的第二個問題是關於付款條件。因此，鑑於供應相當緊張，下游多晶矽供應短缺。那麼我們是否獲得了更好的多晶矽銷售付款條件？

We still, I think, like the usual. To us, I think, if you can see, most of our delivery is paid. So most right now, yes, we accept the banking notes. And we only accept banking notes. Plus, I think, the cash, okay, the remittance. So basically, we upon that. So we, right now, because of the supply and demand, so we may be in any quarter, months, we may be asking for more remittance cash rather than the banking -- I think it dropped. So I think that's what we're doing. But basically, I think our delivery is a part of the cash received. I think, as you know, the banking notes also is very -- just like cash.

我認為，我們仍然像往常一樣。對我們來說，我想，如果你能看到，我們的大部分交付都是有償的。所以現在大多數情況下，是的，我們接受銀行票據。我們只接受銀行票據。另外，我想，現金，好的，匯款。所以基本上，我們基於此。所以我們，現在，由於供求關係，所以我們可能在任何一個季度、幾個月裡，我們可能會要求更多的匯款現金，而不是銀行業務——我認為它下降了。所以我認為這就是我們正在做的。但基本上，我認為我們的交付是收到現金的一部分。我認為，正如你所知，銀行票據也非常——就像現金一樣。

So basically, right now, what happens is -- so one is customers are willing to sign long-term contracts and pay a higher prepayment per kilogram or a higher percentage of prepayment for the contract, right. So I think that's really a sign of customers are really willing to pay upfront to secure supply. And another situation we're seeing right now is that, actually, we usually contract around the end of the month for next month's volume. And actually, customers now are eager to pay us ahead after the contract is signed, so that they could get on the delivery list, so that they could get earlier delivery of polysilicon for their order as well.

所以基本上，現在發生的事情是——客戶願意簽訂長期合同並支付更高的每公斤預付款或更高百分比的合同預付款，對吧。所以我認為這確實表明客戶真的願意預先付款以確保供應。我們現在看到的另一種情況是，實際上，我們通常會在月底左右為下個月的交易量收縮。事實上，客戶現在都希望在合同簽訂後提前付款，以便他們可以進入交貨清單，以便他們也可以提前獲得訂單的多晶矽交貨。

So basically, Ming just said, I think the first one and most important. We right now take the advantage of the supply -- tight supply. So we are going to sign some contracts. Basically, I think the majority of quantity is the forecast, I think, the next 3 years. So we collect a high percentage of down payments. I think that's what we're doing right now, to lock the future I think.

所以基本上，Ming 剛剛說，我認為第一個也是最重要的。我們現在利用供應——供應緊張。所以我們要簽一些合同。基本上，我認為大部分數量是對未來 3 年的預測。所以我們收取很高比例的預付款。我認為這就是我們現在正在做的事情，以鎖定我認為的未來。

Okay. I have one more question regarding the competition landscape. So what do you see in the relatively longer-term development for this polysilicon supply business? So do you think that there will be a big player and several smaller ones with roughly equal capacity? Or you expect we'll have 4 to 5 manufacturer with similar scale? And the second following question about this is, what will be Daqo's long-term market share target in this supply?

好的。我還有一個關於競爭格局的問題。那麼您如何看待多晶矽供應業務相對長期的發展？那麼你認為會有一個大玩家和幾個容量大致相等的小玩家嗎？或者您預計我們將有 4 到 5 個類似規模的製造商？關於此的第二個問題是，大全在該供應中的長期市場份額目標是多少？

I think, basically, the silicon industry is different from the middle stream, the solar industry, like wafer sale and module. We are chemical industry. First of all, we need a heavy capital investment capacity. As you can see, our balance sheet. Second is a long-term investment circle. Third is requirements for environmental, for the safety. All these -- I think this industry, if you look at last year, Q2, our selling price almost -- this last year, only -- I think we make a little money. I think all the industry -- other players lose money.

我認為，基本上，矽行業不同於太陽能行業的中游，比如晶圓銷售和組件。我們是化工行業。首先，我們需要強大的資金投入能力。如您所見，我們的資產負債表。二是長期投資圈。三是對環境、對安全的要求。所有這些——我認為這個行業，如果你看看去年，第二季度，我們的銷售價格幾乎——去年，只有——我認為我們賺了一點錢。我認為整個行業——其他參與者都在賠錢。

So basically, this industry is not just like you see the glasses. Glasses is even less technology than the polysilicon. Then also, you have to remember that, in this industry, one of the player, you can know that, they have the money right (foreign language) but they take the 5 years, they still didn't keep up the quality like a first tier player. So basically, I think in the future, maybe in this industry, maybe where we survive only 4 to 5 players there, and those four, 5 players will forecast, I think, continue R&D, the investments and the capacity expansion.

所以基本上，這個行業不僅僅是你看到的眼鏡。眼鏡的技術甚至不如多晶矽。然後，您還必須記住，在這個行業中，其中一位玩家，您可以知道，他們有錢（外語），但他們花了 5 年時間，他們仍然沒有像第一梯隊球員。所以基本上，我認為在未來，也許在這個行業，也許我們在那裡只剩下 4 到 5 個參與者，而我認為這 4、5 個參與者將預測，繼續研發、投資和產能擴張。

I think definitely Tongwei is one of the bigger player, as you can see there. But they also continue to vertically integrate and we don't know the future what's going on, okay? How much percentage of the polysilicon will go to vertical integrator? How much will go to the market? But definitely, I think Daqo is one of purely, I think, silicon producer player. And we will not touch the downstream. We do whatever we expert are. So I think we definitely will be one-off player. And then maybe I think TBEA is a one-off player. Then also, I think Asian Polysilicon (sic) [Asia Silicon] is going to IPO. We don't know the future, whether they can successfully IPO or not, raise enough money to keep up with us -- compete with us. Then another is New Horizon. I think that's -- is the only -- I think left right now, the major player there.

我認為通威絕對是更大的玩家之一，正如你在那裡看到的那樣。但他們也繼續垂直整合，我們不知道未來會發生什麼，好嗎？多少百分比的多晶矽將流向垂直集成商？有多少會進入市場？但可以肯定的是，我認為大全是純粹的矽生產商之一。我們不會觸及下游。我們做我們擅長的事。所以我認為我們肯定會成為一次性球員。然後也許我認為特變電工是一次性的玩家。然後，我認為亞洲多晶矽 (sic) [Asia Silicon] 將進行 IPO。我們不知道未來，他們是否能成功上市，籌集到足夠的資金來跟上我們的步伐——與我們競爭。然後另一個是新視野。我認為那是——是唯一的——我認為現在剩下的是那裡的主要參與者。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Alex (sic) [Kevin] He for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Alex（原文如此）[Kevin] He 作任何閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, again for participating in today's conference call. Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you, and bye-bye.

再次感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與我們聯繫。謝謝，再見。

This conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。